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2025 Sun Belt Football Previews: Arkansas State Red Wolves
53 Plays2 months ago
To end the week, Brian and Zeke break down the Arkansas State Red Wolves, with its high powered offense led by Jaylen Raynor and receiver Corey Rucker.
Will ASU's defense be able to finally get under the 30 PPG allowed mark in 2025?
Email us questions for the show at warmweatherfans@gmail.com!
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Transcript
Introduction and Arkansas State's Surprising Season
00:00:16
Speaker
Welcome everybody into another edition of Warm Weather Fans. This is Brian Stone joined once again ah by Zeke Palermo. We are on the west side of the Sunbelt bracket ah late in this week.
00:00:27
Speaker
We are talking about the Arkansas State Red Wolves who... I'm going to be honest. See, we're going to get into specifics as we go. i was truly shocked to see this team win eight games last year based on you know, it it was one thing when it was happening at the time and I was just kind of like, I can't make heads or tails of it.
00:00:46
Speaker
Yeah. when i When I went back and looked at more of the numbers in detail later, i was like, I truly don't know how they got the eight wins, but good on Butch Jones for kind of building some momentum for some rough early seasons.
Butch Jones' Leadership and Strategy
00:01:00
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, this is a program that as long as I've been covering the Sunbelt, I've not been a big believer and I've been very vocal in my distrust of Butch Jones. um But begrudgingly, I have to hang my head and admit he's increased his win total every year.
00:01:17
Speaker
He just won eight games. um So I think there's some merit to the idea that they might actually be building some sort of long-term success. ah Again, i agree with you that it kind of felt ah very out of a hat, kind of like... um I don't know. we've We've talked about this kind of teams near the bottom of like the East last year seem to pull out wins that felt out of a hat with no real rhyme or reason.
00:01:44
Speaker
um And that felt like Arkansas State at times. But you also have to kind of acknowledge that they have... I don't want to go ahead and call them the best quarterback wide receiver do on the conference. I don't think that's true, but in the same like tier as the best quarterback wide receiver combo in the conference, ah they bring back some really good rushing options. They bring back some ah offensive line. And it's just like, if they're going to adopt this mentality of we're going to score 40, you have to catch us.
00:02:13
Speaker
They're doing a really, really good job of it. And so as much as I disagree fundamentally and definitely, don't believe long-term in that as a successful plan of attack, they're doing it.
00:02:25
Speaker
And it seems like they're doing it pretty darn well. um And again, I say this begrudgingly because I've been very vocal about my distrust in Butch Jones and his ability to make this Arkansas State team what it was, you know,
00:02:39
Speaker
what, like 10, 15 years ago was it? I'm not sure what the time is. Less than that. I think less than that, yeah. ah When Blake Anderson was the coach. I mean, sure I'm pretty sure Blake Anderson's last season was 2020.
00:02:53
Speaker
twenty twenty I mean, he directly preceded Butch Jones. So i guess it wasn't that far away. but Yeah. um Yeah. Like I said, there are some numbers that I think are alarming that if they repeat this year, I really doubt they hit the the eight win mark just because, I don't know, it it just feels like
00:03:18
Speaker
Okay, let's start with the offense. And I'm going to be honest, man, I haven't talked to you about this off the area. I think from now, starting next year, when we do previews, we're going to do, we're going to break it up into good, bad, and schedule.
00:03:32
Speaker
And then between the good and the bad, I'm going to put in a horn sound effect called the Homer horn that I'm going hit whenever a home. And I'm going to be like, if you were a Homer and do not want to hear anything negative about your program, stop listening right here. ah just because of of some of the reactions we've got from teams that frankly haven't produced ah ever ah in the Sun Belt. So I just, I don't ever get it.
00:03:55
Speaker
But let's let's start with the good, aka the
Key Players and Offensive Strengths
00:03:58
Speaker
offense here. So like you said, you've got Jalen Rayner coming back, completed so almost 62% of his passes last season, has been a good steadying force for them after a couple of uncertain seasons before he came along at the quarterback spot where they were doing a musical chairs carousel thing with the quarterback spot, couldn't settle on somebody, or or maybe it seemed like they were picking the wrong guy out of the two and we're starting them anyway.
00:04:25
Speaker
He has been kind of a steadying force. And like you said, with the help of Corey Rucker, sorry to step on past catcher corner, but he's the primary guy here. Those two together have been like a really good tandem for this team and and really helped them.
00:04:41
Speaker
Like I said, reach the eight win total last year. um Is there, you know, Corey Rucker, a thousand yards and 13 starts, second team all Sunbelt. he He leaves, leaves Arkansas State, goes to South Carolina for one season, then comes back again. And and it's like he never left almost. ye Just picks up where he left off.
00:05:01
Speaker
Do you anticipate this still being like a, i mean, I guess I know that your answer, but do you think that there's anything here that is going to kind of hamper them or anything like that?
00:05:12
Speaker
I don't think so. I mean, it's always just going to be, again, so kind of stepping on then the section about the bad. You obviously then get the benefit of having these two guys who, Jalen Rayner, again, is like a top-tier quarterback in the conference.
00:05:28
Speaker
Corey Rucker, who i had to hand-calculate this because sun the Sunbelt hasn't released its media guide for the upcoming season or its record book. for the 2025 season yet, but he is going to finish top 10 in sunbelt, all time sunbelt receptions.
00:05:43
Speaker
He is already seventh in all time sunbelt receiving yards, and he is 10th in sunbelt receiving touchdowns. All three of those categories, he could reasonably finish. He would have to have like a really good year. We're talking 110 catches, 1100 yards, but that's not an, I mean, he's already in a thousand yard receiver. That's not an obscene.
00:06:03
Speaker
And if he does that, he's going to finish top 10, one and at least two of those three categories, um which kind of shocked me. He obviously gets the benefit of playing what will now be his fifth Sunbelt year due to COVID and, you know, different eligibility things. But um I mean, that that is again, like we're we're looking at the historic wide receiver that really rivals only since I've been around the conference, Grayson McCall and Sam Pinckney in terms of ah kind of
00:06:34
Speaker
accolade proceed within the conference. But it's even cooler because we've this is year three now of this combo. No, this is year three. Yeah. yeah yeah because I was trying i trying to figure out where the South Carolina year came in. But yeah, this is year three where Sam Pinckney kind of came in later in his career after starting at Georgia State. So, I mean, it's exciting. It's fun to watch.
00:06:58
Speaker
um and And that's the good of it. And it's it's really a benefit for Arkansas State that, and I mean, because because players don't do this, where they go dip their toe elsewhere and then come back.
00:07:10
Speaker
like It's really a benefit for them that he went to ah South Carolina in 2022, saw that I guess the grass isn't green are always greener, and then was like, you know what? I had it really good where I was in Jonesboro, and maybe that's where i I should have stayed the whole time. He pulled a Damian Lillard.
00:07:28
Speaker
and and decided like, you know, I had things really good with my red and black team and I made a mistake and and should go back to wearing red and black. yeah So, um all right. So, like I said, you've got Jalen Rayner.
00:07:42
Speaker
ah we We can, we don't have to say more about Rucker. I mean, I feel like we've we've done it justice. They do get Ethan Crawford to back up Rayner, which awesome as people that covered Southern Miss last year,
00:07:55
Speaker
you Arkansas State fans better hope that Rayner doesn't get injured because it was horrendous. Now, maybe having a weapon on the... it if If this does happen, this is all a giant contingency.
00:08:07
Speaker
If that does happen, maybe having Rucker unlock something with Crawford but Crawford completed 42% of his passes last year. And frankly, that, that wouldn't get it done at the peewee level.
00:08:21
Speaker
So I, again, they better just hope that they don't have to cross that bridge at all. And just Jalen Render stays healthy. um Another big piece of this offense is the running back room ah with headline by Jaquez cross.
00:08:34
Speaker
Obviously ah you lose Wallace from last year, who was one of, if not their lead, I think he was their leading rusher actually. Um, but Jaquez cross is a very solid player piece for this offense. um You know, 721 yards last year made seven starts played 13 games.
00:08:53
Speaker
Yeah. it It just seems like the kind of triumvirate up front of, of cross Rainer and Rucker are going to have to be what kind of powers this team. Because like you said, the bad part is coming and we will get to that. But offensively from like the skill positions, are there anybody else besides those three that we mentioned that you think could make some noise?
00:09:15
Speaker
I think Kenyon Clay is a good and addition. He comes over from Southern Miss or... Yeah. And he was sitting behind Rodriguez Clark for much of last season. Um, but he was still exceptional. He finished, uh, second in team rushing yards, actually third in team receiving. And that fits this team because we saw last year, Jacquez cross, he eclipsed 200 receiving yards. So I think Kenyan clay is going to play that cross role that cross played behind Wallace last year, where he's like, Hey, you're still one B you're, you're not one A, but you are one B by a,
00:09:50
Speaker
a very clear margin. You're going to get used, especially on third downs. um And I think there's some interesting additions behind Corey Rucker that could make some noise. Obviously these are not 700, 800 yard type guys but they are going to get open because you're doubling Corey Rucker, um and are really just good depth filler. I think DeMarco Blanton, who was an all conference Juco wide receiver was really good.
00:10:16
Speaker
Uh, you get this guy, Nana Burris, who used a different name when he was at FIU. I don't recall what it was. Uh, but he, he was a ah good like four third, fourth receiver when he was at f FIU.
00:10:27
Speaker
Um, I believe the recruiting class, I don't, I'm not a huge fan of the recruiting. I don't buy into it. Let me see you in college. But um they they brought in a couple guys that were their highest rated recruits were a handful of wide receivers. So I think there's a lot of depth behind Cross and Rucker.
00:10:45
Speaker
Obviously, you still need those guys. I think that engine doesn't run without them. But like you're you're not in a position where it's Corey Rucker and then a bunch 100-yard guys. You've got a couple 400-type guys.
00:10:59
Speaker
And behind Cross, like if he has to miss a game, Kenyon Clay will be able to do the job. He had 420 yards last year on 84 carries. ah He was incredibly efficient and is very good near the red zone. So I think it's just a very skillful group that I'm really optimistic about.
00:11:18
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know if... Did you mention Jordan Smart specifically when you were running down the receivers? I did not. Okay, so they they also get a pair of SEC Mississippi... The state of Mississippi SEC school transfers in Jordan Smart, who projects as being...
00:11:37
Speaker
ah I guess the third and three receiver sets behind, ah Rucker and Burris. And then you also get JJ Harrell, who was red shirt last year at Mississippi state, uh, who comes in to kind of help fill out the receiving room as well. So like you said, hopefully you've got some depth there that can kind of take some heat off Rucker.
00:11:56
Speaker
You know, if, if opposing defenses say, we're just going double this guy and make everybody else beat us, you know, Like you said, you know, if you've got a receiving back out of the backfield that can produce one of these other guys can step up. They don't even necessarily have to be seven, 800 yard receivers. But if, if they can all consistently have four or 500 yards, you could be looking at kind of something special, I think in the receiving room, ah but you know, we'll, we'll have to see how that all goes.
00:12:23
Speaker
Um, you know, ah nothing, nothing really to write home about at the tight end spot. That seems to be a recurring theme here in the Sunbelt is we don't, we don't value tight end play at all for some reason.
00:12:34
Speaker
ah I felt like some teams did last season, but not, not. Yeah. I mean, you've got a couple guys. And it was like Louisiana and Georgia Southern were the only tight ends that I could name off the top of my head.
00:12:47
Speaker
Yeah. um Yeah. I mean, this ain't the big 10, man. we We spread them out. That's what we did. yeah All right. So getting to the offensive line here, you do get Noah Smith back at left tackle.
00:12:59
Speaker
Uh, however, he is the only returning starter in the offensive line. You do get Will Saxton coming over from Southern Miss. Hopefully again, none of the negative things that happened at Southern Miss come over with him. And hopefully he, he wasn't the weak link. I would imagine not.
00:13:17
Speaker
I would imagine Butch Jones finds that on film, on paper, what have you, uh, Losing the center Jacob Bayer is a huge loss for them, but you know, hopefully they can keep the, keep Jalen Rayner upright after what was kind of a rocky season last year.
00:13:33
Speaker
Yeah, losing Bears is going to be a big ah loss for a group that was already pretty so-so. In the run game, they were exceptional. You've got Wallace and Cross, who both averaged, ah I mean, they averaged between the two of them five yards per carry.
00:13:48
Speaker
um so So in that regard, you're very set, but pass blocking left a lot to be desired. The 35 Last year is obviously inflated because Jalen Rayner is running 137 times. hundred thirty seven times So that number is going to inflate a little artificially.
00:14:05
Speaker
um But this was so-so group. I think, i again, for me, they're pretty middle of the pack. I'm yet to see anything that is like catastrophic. But middle of the pack um with Jalen Rayner Unfortunately, good enough. the guy The guy can move so well.
00:14:23
Speaker
And again, we've you've got the talent in Cross and now Clay, who behind Saxton, for example, in a what was an otherwise fairly weak offensive line room, all all things considered within that offense. um You know, when stuff breaks down, you've got Jalen Rayner and...
00:14:41
Speaker
it's going to be okay. So, you know, it a so-so group for me, like we're talking probably median, if not a smidge below median ah within the kind context of the conference, but it's okay.
00:14:56
Speaker
You got Jalen Rainer. I mean, you know, when you've got Lamar Jackson, you don't need the offensive line that the Ravens actually have. You don't need that because you've got Lamar Jackson. Yeah, although it does help.
00:15:08
Speaker
I mean, that's what separate that's what separates you from a very questionable eight-win team where we're like, how did you win eight wins to a very solid eight wins or, you know, Sunbelt Conference title appearance type thing.
00:15:22
Speaker
Yeah. um All right.
Defensive Challenges and Criticisms
00:15:25
Speaker
So let's transition to the defensive side of the ball. This is where if we were if we were doing our new ah or what's going to be our future setup, this is where I would hit the Homer horn and be like, listen, if you're a Arkansas State Homer, we appreciate you listening.
00:15:42
Speaker
Like, rate, subscribe. You can go ahead and click out now because ah this is going to get and negative here in the defensive section. Defensively, they have yet to be good on defense in Butch Jones's tenure. And last year was no exception.
00:16:01
Speaker
Uh, last year gave up 32 points per game, 462 yards, uh, per game defensively past defense. Wasn't good. 250 yards there.
00:16:13
Speaker
Rush defense. Wasn't good. There gave up 5.7 yards per carry as a defense. Um, This is, we said it last year, and I'm still shocked that it got the eight wins with the team that they have and and everything.
00:16:27
Speaker
Until Butch Jones learns how to field a It doesn't even have to be a 2023 James Madison-style defense. I just need to see them be able to get under the 30-point mark, which they they came close to doing in 2023, but then they got worse again.
00:16:44
Speaker
um Until that happens, I can't consider them real contenders in the West. and I mean, I know you feel that way. like you you know You're you're ah kind of always been on fraud watch with Butch Jones.
00:16:57
Speaker
Yeah, it's just like... I am not a real serious subscriber to long-term success in this. Hey, we're going to score five touchdowns today.
00:17:09
Speaker
It is now your turn. You're going to beat us if you score more than that or if you know if you go bar for bar with us. um And the fact that they let them do that has always given me pause with Butch Jones in this team.
00:17:23
Speaker
um I mean, going back to his first year there, they're allowing over 37 points a game. ah And that number has dropped by a lot, a whole touchdown worth over the past three years.
00:17:36
Speaker
but that's still above 30. um And with the offense being so Again, i'm I'm very much a subscriber to Rainer, Wallace, and Rucker. Or I'm sorry, Cross and Rucker ah being an engine that can take this team to consistently above 30 points a game.
00:17:55
Speaker
ah When one of those in parts of the engine falls apart and you're not able to reach that, there's no backup plan. There's no backup plan at all. um That is why...
00:18:07
Speaker
I think James Madison has been so successful is that there is the backup plan, like with their defense, if they're, even if their DNs aren't getting to you and creating those sacks, it's okay because their offense is ah able to put on the offensive pressure.
00:18:21
Speaker
And when you're not able to do both, It ultimately doesn't matter. This is going to be an exceptional counting stats defense just because the ball is going to transfer hands so many times and teams are going to be just like, shoot, man.
00:18:36
Speaker
Who knows how many fumbles they're going to force just because teams are going to start running the ball in the second quarter exclusively because i you know, the, the best plan of action is to keep the ball out of Jalen Rainer's hands.
00:18:48
Speaker
Um, I don't know. I can't bang this drum anymore. And it's much like I felt with South Al, where it was like, hey, South Al, although it's a little unfair to them because they're on ah under Major Applewhite, who's only in his second year.
00:19:02
Speaker
But with South Al, it was like, hey, when are you guys going to turn this corner? You've been flirting with like eight, nine wins and flirting with like maybe dethroning Louisiana, even just once. It doesn't have to be over the long term, but just once.
00:19:14
Speaker
um I'm feeling that fatigue now with Arkansas State where it's like, I can't keep banging this drum of like, this model does not seem like it's going to be successful. yeah i want to say that I want to say this because people are going to jump down my throat, and I think rightfully so.
00:19:29
Speaker
Butch Jones has increased his win total year on year on year. But if the end goal is to dethrone Louisiana and you know beat them and route to a then-conference title game in week 13 or whatever week it is, um this this is not the way to do it. This is just not...
00:19:47
Speaker
proven not to be the sufficient way to do it. Because last year you had Wallace, Rucker, and Rainer, which is probably a better core three than what you're going to have this upcoming season.
00:19:58
Speaker
And you couldn't get it done. So it's like, what what is the ceiling? Is eight wins the ceiling? Because if so, again, like now we have to have the conversation that we had with um with South Al before Major Applewhite took over.
00:20:12
Speaker
We have to have the conversation that we had with
00:20:18
Speaker
It wasn't Old Dominion. There was another team we had the conversation with where it's like, is seven wins your ceiling? And if so, that's not enough. not Not for a team of the caliber or the program with the expectations and the resources that Arkansas State has.
00:20:32
Speaker
And a coach that, again, has ah a lot of pedigree, but frankly, not a ton of on-paper success at Arkansas State yet.
00:20:42
Speaker
I mean, well so they get a new defensive coordinator. um um Internal, though. It's internal. What's going to change? He's going to be the same guy. Yeah, I have a hard time looking at the defense and and the pieces and how they performed last year.
00:20:58
Speaker
and then, like you said, promoting a guy from within it within a bad defensive unit. like maybe Maybe it becomes like we just don't have the pieces to like make this happen.
00:21:11
Speaker
But it's also like, a chicken or egg thing? Like, is it not, is it not having the right players in place? And if so, that's a Butch Jones problem from like a recruiting transfer scouting, like what have you perspective, or does he just keep hiring the wrong guys to be the defensive coordinators?
00:21:29
Speaker
Like, I, I don't know, but it, or maybe it's both. I mean, I, I truly, Arkansas State fans, if you can tell us what the problem with the defense has been, warmweatherfans at gmail.com, email us or or comment on our YouTube video. like i would love I would love to know. like to To keep a guy in this position as the head coach and have and one side of the ball feel like it's been totally neglected under his tenure feels... like I know Matt is a big-time Butch Jones apologist that's on this show.
00:22:03
Speaker
But for me, that's almost borderline unforgivable. like And I know that they've made like coaching changes and things like that, but it if it continues to be wrong every year, there's only one constant.
00:22:15
Speaker
you know and it's And I know they're not going to make a change coming off of an eight-win season, but defensively, how long can you just neglect one side of the ball and basically be like, ah, well, we'll just score a million points every game.
00:22:29
Speaker
like Yeah, I mean, the worst the worst case... maybe not the worst case, but a pretty bad case for Arkansas state ah from a program perspective is Butch Jones wins seven games again.
00:22:41
Speaker
And then he wins seven games next year. And it's like, all right, three consecutive seven, eight win seasons. You can't fire a guy after that. Or caught in a holding pattern. Right. You're in a holding pattern.
00:22:53
Speaker
And so then you're stuck with him for like the next from as we talk in 2025, you're stuck with him for another like four or five years. And that to me feels like kind of the worst case scenario.
00:23:03
Speaker
Like you want this ship to sink. ah So you're not stuck drowning on it. You know, yeah you want to just go down now so I can get on the lifeboat. You know, maybe I freeze in the ocean, but I'm on the lifeboat and I don't have, I don't have to drown.
00:23:18
Speaker
Oh, maybe that's a really bad analogy, but no, you just watched Titanic recently. I'm sure. but Um, you know, okay like that, that, I don't know. Again, Arkansas State fans, let us know because we're a weird spot.
00:23:33
Speaker
I know. A couple of stats I want to read off that Phil Steele, who Phil Steele, I'd like to say, if he's not bullish on a part of your team, there's really something wrong because he's pretty much bullish on everybody.
00:23:46
Speaker
But he even was like, okay, they're one of three programs in the FBS whose win total has increased each of the last three seasons. so Great. Not the part you need to be concerned about.
00:23:58
Speaker
the year some and This year, indicators are pointing down as they were minus 61 yards per game in Sunbelt play. so they were getting out gained by 61 yards per game in the Sunbelt and had seven net close wins, which basically means...
00:24:14
Speaker
Those are coin flip games. You know, those are not. There are teams that are better than others at winning close games. However, if you're making a living off of winning close games, that's not a recipe for success long term.
00:24:26
Speaker
So that is what they did last year was they won seven close games that they played. So even he says it's going to be tough for Arkansas state to improve their regular fourth straight year.
00:24:37
Speaker
I agree. They're probably not going to win nine games. I think it's going to be tough to get for them to get back to eight, even with a bowl game. and Like I, I think we're, we're looking at like a six and six,
00:24:47
Speaker
ceiling.
Analyzing Arkansas State's Upcoming Season
00:24:48
Speaker
I think last year was a little bit of a fluke. And sorry, I, in theory, I would have honked the Homer horn at this point. I think it's going be really tough to get back to six because I feel like a lot of the defensive metrics that we saw are not sustainable toward building like a a legitimate force out West in a, in a tough West division where it seems like it's only getting tougher.
00:25:13
Speaker
Yeah, well, let's go ahead and run through the schedule then. They start the season ah hosting Southeast Missouri. That feels like a FCS win. ah Then you travel to Arkansas.
00:25:23
Speaker
ah That feels like a comfortable loss. ah Arkansas, make what you want of them, SEC program. You feel comfortable about that. Iowa State, that also feels like a loss.
00:25:35
Speaker
ah You then get Kennesaw State. They'll probably beat Kennesaw. Yeah, you'll you'll hopefully beat Kennesaw State ah at Kennesaw. ah You then start with conference play the next week at ULM.
00:25:49
Speaker
I think I like a coin. That's like a coin dust. Like I truly don't know. i I feel for the benefit of the doubt, let's give it to Arkansas state now and we can revise later.
00:26:00
Speaker
So I have them. That game is the stoppable force meets the movable object. You've got, you've got a terrible Arkansas state defense facing a ULM offense that last year outside of a mod Hardy couldn't,
00:26:13
Speaker
I mean, they couldn't push a piece of ice in the Antarctic. Like, it was it was tough. Like, I don't want i don't know. Yeah. so ah So then after ULM, you then take ah host Texas State.
00:26:24
Speaker
i don't I think Texas State takes that one. You get your buy then October 11th. ah And you actually get a long buy because that following week, ah after that October 11th weekend, you actually play on October 14th, South Alabama. So you get...
00:26:42
Speaker
Am I doing my math right? Is that a long buy or a short buy? Because they play on a Tuesday. i mean, the the buy is just factored in for the Tuesday game. like They yeah gave them the week off so that they weren't turning around and playing a game right right you three days away or whatever. Okay, yeah. so ah but So then anyway, after your first buy, you play at South Alabama on a Tuesday.
00:27:04
Speaker
ah South Alabama, I feel fairly comfortable in that. ah Then you take to the road to play or come back home rather to play Georgia Southern. That's your homecoming game. i like Georgia Southern there.
00:27:16
Speaker
You then travel to Troy. i like Arkansas State there, but that's another coin flippy one. ah You come back home for Southern Miss. Who knows what Southern Miss will be at that point in the year? Southern Miss is off of a bye in that game too.
00:27:29
Speaker
So I, again, that, that could be like a conference championship bound Southern miss, or that could be a, at this point in the season for wind Southern miss. Yeah. So, you know, it kind of depends on who we get there.
00:27:41
Speaker
ah You get a late by November 15th before then turning around. And taking on Louisiana on a Thursday, Louisiana takes that one. And then you go to App State at eight App State to end the season, which I probably like Arkansas State. But again, that's another coin flippy one.
00:27:59
Speaker
ah There's two games that are certain wins, and that's your sd i'm sorry FCS opponent and Kennesaw State, who just came up from FCS. ah There's a couple coin flips. ah ULM is a coin flippy one.
00:28:12
Speaker
ah Troy, Southern Miss, and App State are all coin flippy. I mean, even on a bright side, you win four of those. ah You're looking at five wins. This is just... But the problem with Arkansas State and what they did last year is like, what if they show up against Louisiana and score 50 points?
00:28:30
Speaker
They could just do that. Well, they didn't last year. They they lost by almost 50 points. Right. here's Any of these like i mean any these better opponents, they can just show up and score.
00:28:44
Speaker
Yes, but here's the thing. It seems to be when they win, it was very close. And we talked about the seven close wins. They were Central Arkansas. You won by three.
00:28:55
Speaker
You beat Tulsa by four. ah And when they lose, they get shellacked. I mean, it was like Louisiana, 55 to 19 Southern miss. I mean, they beat Southern miss Texas state you lost 41 to nine.
00:29:08
Speaker
Like it was just like when they lose, they really lose. And, it but it was like, here are the close ones. South Al, ah you beat Southern Miss by 16. So great job there.
00:29:20
Speaker
Troy, you beat by three. Georgia State beat by seven. you beat by seven. And then you beat Bowling Green by seven in the bowl game. I just feel like the pendulum, if you're going to keep on this defensive trajectory, the pendulum is going to swing back the other way.
00:29:35
Speaker
and It's going to bite you. So ah they have to, I mean, it it's On paper, again, Phil Steele very bullish on a lot of teams that even we feel like, whoa, pump the brakes.
00:29:48
Speaker
He has them projected to give up more defensive yards than they gave up last year. like He has them giving up 470 yards per game on defense, I think. so that just that was the That would be his second worst since coming to Arkansas State.
00:30:05
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, 2021, he gave up 506 game on defense.
00:30:11
Speaker
38 points. That's insane. And so I think you're just asking way too much of Rucker, Cross, Rainer to to go out there and go, hey, guys, defense is going to give you anything today. Maybe a handful of possessions, but you're gonna have to we're going to have to basically try to be perfect every game.
00:30:34
Speaker
because either that or we're going to have to hope that, like I said, you play ULM and that and for some reason ULM decides to throw the ball 40 times inexplicably. Like those are the kind of things that are going to have to happen.
00:30:46
Speaker
we We did miss this. Frankly, There's only one guy kind of to call out on Arkansas State's defense, and that's Brian Whitehead, the defensive end. ah He was third-team all Sunbelt last year, had a four sacks, six-and-a-half tackles for loss. um like ah Again, it's like you might have one piece, but you've got 10 other guys that are either new or haven't done anything yet, and it's like...
00:31:15
Speaker
In theory, if they didn't play last year and they were on the team, that seems to be a bad sign because you were probably looking for answers everywhere. And the fact that those guys couldn't crack the rotation on a defense that was terrible is usually not a great indicator for the future moving forward.
00:31:33
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, he he's one of two guys on the roster with more than three sacks. Uh, the six and a half TFL is exceptional. 15 hurries, which I mean, that's a lot, but it's really tough for a guy to continue that production or even put up production like that, that, which is, i mean, that's third team level, but like we're not talking superstar pass rusher, uh, in that regard. Those are, those are very good, ah type, but,
00:32:02
Speaker
you know these These are not nothing to write home about. And it's hard to continue putting that type of stuff up when there's no one else around you, when there's no one else to to draw that attention. ah And you can just – this is not a Mike Green guy that no matter if you put two, three, four offensive linemen and you're running back, he's going to get through.
00:32:21
Speaker
um So but best of the rest, I suppose, to Brian Whitehead. Well, okay, so here's here's one last little tidbit before we sign out. So they were 5-1 at home last year.
00:32:35
Speaker
um let me You went through the schedule, but let me let me reiterate what their home games are this year. Southeast Missouri, which is probably a win. Iowa State at home. Texas State at home.
00:32:45
Speaker
Georgia Southern at home. Southern Miss at home. Louisiana at home. That's two. Yeah. Two of those are winnable. yeah You made your bread and butter last year off of winning home games, a la the same way that like Georgia Southern does, where they go on the road and they forget how to play football.
00:33:03
Speaker
if If you're going to pull that again this year with a tough tougher home slate, buddy, you got you got a rough ah rough go of it in front of you. You got to start to win some of these games on the road.
00:33:15
Speaker
Yeah. It's tough. it I think this is just a unfortunate case ah of poor roster construction strategy, or, or as you said, it it could very well just be hiring the wrong guys. And don't maybe the linebackers coach that you promote to DC has the answers, but at this moment, it it feels really tough.
00:33:37
Speaker
And to some degree, you feel bad for the guys that are like Corey Rucker, who, as we led off is like, that is an all time Sunbelt, like Sunbelt hall of fame type receiver.
00:33:48
Speaker
And and it Sorry, champ. You got to play with Butch Jones and his band of misfits on defense.
00:34:01
Speaker
um All right. So any any other last minute thoughts as we sign off? And if not, go ahead and plug us away and then we will sign off.
Engagement and Next Episode Preview
00:34:11
Speaker
No, man. ah Just be sure to be sure to follow us on ah Twitter. You can follow the show WarmWeatherFans as you can see it up above.
00:34:20
Speaker
ah we We want to hear from you, especially the Arkansas State fans. If you know or have an inkling of what's going wrong here, please let us know because this is... There are a handful of teams in this conference that just are kind of always perplexing, and this is one of those programs that for the past several years has kind of always befuddled us. So let us know.
00:34:39
Speaker
ah You can find me individually at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O, and that's where you can find me and the show on Twitter. Yeah, as always, you can find me on Twitter at WatchTheStone. As I said earlier, email us you know observations, thoughts on your respective team, warmweatherfans at gmail.com.
00:34:59
Speaker
ah Follow the YouTube channel, youtube.com slash at warmweatherfans. ah We will be back next week to talk over, i believe it's Georgia Southern and Texas State are our next two teams.
00:35:11
Speaker
ah So we will look forward to those. This has been another edition of Warm Weather Fans.