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2025 Sun Belt Football Previews: Texas State Bobcats
67 Plays2 months ago
The whole crew is back to talk over the Texas State Bobcats in the team's final year in the Sun Belt Conference under GJ Kinne. Kinne had a strong team last year, but losses late in the season prevented Texas State from representing the West division in the Sun Belt title game.
Can the Bobcats make a run for the title in their final season in the conference?
Email questions to the show at warmweatherfans@gmail.com!
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Transcript
Introduction and Texas State Bobcats Overview
00:00:16
Speaker
Welcome everybody into another edition of Warm Weather Fans, the Sunbelt Podcast. We once again have a full house here. It is Brian Stone, your host, joined once again by Matt Miguez and Zeke Palermo.
00:00:28
Speaker
Guys, it's good to have you all here. We are gathered here to talk about Zeke's favorite football team, the Texas State Bobcats. ah Zeke, 12 wins this year? 13? 13?
Texas State's Transfer to Pac-12 and Expectations
00:00:42
Speaker
thirteen Not quite. Are they playing Ohio State for the national championship? All right. Well, first of all, I want to thank Matt for being here. I know we're cutting into his Hall of Fame game time.
00:00:58
Speaker
so we thank you for taking the time away, Matt, for joining us. ah No, Texas State, fool me once. um You're also on the way out.
00:01:08
Speaker
Obviously, that's a big – probably the biggest storyline around toward Texas State this year is just that they are not going to be in the Sun Belt next year as they transfer out to the Mountain West, yes? not They're going to the Pac-12. Yeah, they're in the Pac-12.
00:01:30
Speaker
Okay. I didn't think they had Pac-12. I didn't think they were Pac-12 quality. um but Yeah, no one does. That's that's the funny thing. So that's obviously the
Reflecting on Last Season's Optimism and Predictions
00:01:41
Speaker
storyline. But fool me once on the Bobcats.
00:01:45
Speaker
I think they are the best of ah of the rest in a relatively weak Western division. Whoa. which Well, we didn't, we don't have the rest.
00:01:56
Speaker
We don't have the weak word around. and Troy, ULM. That's not nice. South out Arkansas state. so i don't Don't say week. There's like a 50, 50 chance. Southern miss goes like five and seven.
00:02:13
Speaker
um ah would love that. I would. I'm optimistic on that team, but there's like a 50, 50 chance. Um, on So, no, I'm not buying the hype this year.
00:02:25
Speaker
Well, it's good to see that Zeke grew up. We love that. Because, God, you were gung-ho on them going 12-0 and over making the playoff. What a pipe dream that was. Anyways, um doing good over here, getting prepared to to teach the youth of America.
00:02:42
Speaker
um And, by the way, as as you see the Cajun script hat that I wear often on this show, um check out the new turf at Cajun Field if you haven't yet.
00:02:53
Speaker
Because it is... Spicy. Looks sick. It is spicy. um Yeah, man. ready Ready to talk about these Texas State Bobcats one last time. Never have to talk about them again. And good good good riddance. Goodbye.
00:03:10
Speaker
ah Don't send a postcard. Don't let the door hit you with a good look good lord split you. See ya.
00:03:20
Speaker
um Before we jump in, Matt, I actually did just... I'm going to confess here. Every once in a while, if I'm feeling bad or you know whatever, I will go back and listen to last year's Texas State preview.
00:03:35
Speaker
ah Just because... just because like that level of confidence that someone could have in a team that has no defense and just be like, doesn't matter.
00:03:47
Speaker
They're going to score 45. Okay. And not only that, not only having that level of confidence in a team that didn't have a defense, but a team that had never done it before.
00:03:59
Speaker
Like, like Zeke, Texas state last year was was the equivalent of the freshmen. that got invited to the junior party.
00:04:12
Speaker
It's not true. Oh, it's 100% true. He was even five the year before. He had just made it into the – that's what I'm saying. He was the freshman that just finally got asked to the party.
00:04:26
Speaker
Like, okay, now you're here. Do something about it. And guess what?
00:04:32
Speaker
they No, he would he was – Texas State last year was the sophomore baseball player who showed up with a new bat, like the new carbon fiber, whatever.
00:04:45
Speaker
And projected to, and then, and then proceeded to strike out five
Challenges for Texas State in Pac-12
00:04:49
Speaker
times. He hit one 56 for the season. He was still hitting home runs, but every other time he was hitting home runs, every time you hit a single home run he he made contact and he was hitting home runs, but he was like now hit line drives to the shortstop. There were a lot of over days.
00:05:09
Speaker
Line drives to the shortstop every time. Yeah. Texas State was garbage last year. So those who don't 100% know what we're talking about or you're just listening for the first time, Zeke projected Texas State last season with Jordan McLeod and you know All of those guys they had.
00:05:28
Speaker
Joey Hobart. ah Who was it? Who was the running? Ismail Mahdi. Ismail Mahdi. And he projected them to not only win the Sun Belt, but to go on to the college football playoff as the representative from the G5. I think you said...
00:05:47
Speaker
two losses max was what your your proclamation was. um And then, you know, actually, let's go ahead and jump into it. So their defense was not good.
00:06:01
Speaker
Their lone good defender, Ben Bell, transfers out after like four games. And so what was that long? Yeah, I can't I can't remember how many three, four games, something like that.
00:06:12
Speaker
ah I think it was right after Sam Houston was the game that he just peaced out. I think. I can't remember 100%. But basically, what was a bad defense got even worse because they they dropped one of their pass rushers.
00:06:28
Speaker
ah There were weird like injury issues back and forth with McLeod. There would be games where he would... play and get concussed or have a shoulder injury. And then they'd have to put in like RJ Martinez.
00:06:40
Speaker
They were sprinkling in, ah this guy, Brad Jackson, who still maintains his, his freshman eligibility. Cause he was, he played in fewer than four games per the rules.
00:06:52
Speaker
Uh, they just never put it together. They dropped games inexplicably. Georgia state being the primary one that I remember off the top of my head that I was like, what, what are we doing here? Um, so yeah, uh, that team is, is now one season away from going out to the pack 12.
00:07:09
Speaker
Uh, the way they played last year is not going to cut it in the pack 12. Sorry. Sorry to tell you all that. Uh, you know, so let's, let's start here. uh,
00:07:22
Speaker
Zeke, I'm done with the ribbing, but what are your what are what is your overall kind of take on this year's Texas State team? where do Where do you kind of have them slotted in?
00:07:34
Speaker
ah As I said at the top, I think they are the second or you know depending on what we get out of Southern Miss, could be third best team in a relatively weak West.
00:07:46
Speaker
ah Matt, that is not to disparage the team at the top in Louisiana. but rather to disparage everyone else. ah I think this team finishes with six to seven wins by nature of having at ULM on the schedule and by nature of having Troy on the schedule.
00:08:07
Speaker
They get a pretty difficult out-of-division pull in James Madison, but they get also one of the easier out-of-division pulls in Marshall.
Roster Concerns and Talent Assessment
00:08:19
Speaker
um So this is a team that I think will be in the race for the West, but probably pretty clearly not make it. But because just by nature of someone has to win those games, Texas State will pretty comfortably be in that race.
00:08:37
Speaker
Matt, what do what do you kind of foresee for the Bobcats and their last, their their final, their Alamo of the ah the Sunbelt season that they have coming up?
00:08:48
Speaker
I don't like this roster. and i'm I'm just going to be point blank. I'm looking at their quarterback roster. Keldrick Luster, a redshirt sophomore transfer from SMU.
00:09:05
Speaker
Brad Jackson was on the team last year.
00:09:09
Speaker
You have an Auburn transfer, and then you have a redshirt senior transfer from Pitt who came back home. He's an Austin kid. Came back home. Nate Yarnell.
00:09:23
Speaker
who's go to who Who's going to be the quarterback? Does it really matter? i don't think so. um I mean, look, let me, i i have this attitude towards Texas State because of their fan base. So let me let me put my journalist hat on.
00:09:43
Speaker
Do I think Texas State is going to be god-awful 2025? No, don't. i know Do I think that they take a big step back from not a great year last year?
00:09:57
Speaker
Yeah, I do. I think they're hanging around 500 here in 2025, and that's not going to be a great look on your way out to the Pac-12. Granted, the Pac-12 is not the conference that it once was, right?
00:10:11
Speaker
This isn't Oregon and USC. but it is still considered the fifth p5 conference is it do they retain that status though yeah considering like the conference is totally i mean i guess technically not um it's technically part of the group of six if you will but i it's a step up in in conference right um you know sport wide your the the media deal is going to be bigger
00:10:44
Speaker
youre your kind Your school payout is going to be bigger.
Coach Kinney's Impact and Recruitment Strategies
00:10:47
Speaker
So the expectations are going to be bigger. And I just and just hope for Bobcat fans' sake that your administration and your football staff know what they're getting into.
00:11:00
Speaker
Because what have we make this joke all the time. Texas State has not provided anything to the Sun Belt in their 11, 12 years of being here.
00:11:14
Speaker
Do we really think it's going to be different when they move up in conference?
00:11:20
Speaker
ah enough Enough negative talk. you know They've got some talent and you know at a couple of different spots, um but but their lack of of quarterback...
00:11:33
Speaker
you know knowledge, I guess, um us not really knowing who the guy is going to be or anything about who the guy is going to be is a major concern for me going into this season.
00:11:46
Speaker
Yeah, this is a big step down from TJ Finley and Jordan McLeod. so I mean, i i don't I don't know that there's like an and a nicer way to put it. ah like Like Matt said, you've got ah five ten SMU transfer who, as Phil Steele slates in as the starting quarterback as of today, you've got...
00:12:08
Speaker
Like he said, Jackson, who played sparingly last year, but more of in like a gadget, I run wildcat style, like read option stuff, didn't throw the ball hardly at all.
00:12:20
Speaker
And then you've got these other two transfers and it's like, realistically, do I think Holden Garner is any good? No. Cause I saw him play at Auburn and I'm, I w I was good off that.
00:12:31
Speaker
Uh, so I don't, and I don't know who Nate Yamil is. So that there there's that, um, I think, yeah, I think the, it'll be very interesting to see what they do. They only return five
Offensive Strategy and Quarterback Uncertainties
00:12:48
Speaker
starters on the whole team, ah from last year.
00:12:52
Speaker
So, you know, you're basically starting over as like a football team and just trying to like kind of piece together. Who's going play quarterback. Who's going to be our big contributors offensively.
00:13:05
Speaker
Heck, who's going to be any of our contributors on defense. Cause that was a real sore spot last year. And we'll get into the defense here in a minute. So, as we talked about, you do lose, um, what was his name?
00:13:19
Speaker
Uh, Ismail Motti, who was huge for them. i believe he had what? 1100 yards rushing last season. Uh, he was, he was great. I mean, Lincoln pair, God rest him.
00:13:32
Speaker
Can't God help him. Can't cannot lock down a starting gig in the Sunbelt. I don't know what, I don't know if he crossed a witch at some point in his life. It's like, don't know what happened year in the conference.
00:13:44
Speaker
That's what I'm saying, though, is like he goes to Arkansas State, and I don't know that he ever secured fully the starting job. Then he comes here, he gets passed over for Mahdi, and now, at least if you're to believe Phil Steele's depth chart, he's getting passed over by UNLV transfer named Greg Burrell.
00:14:03
Speaker
Or Burrell. So, i don't know like I said, i don't know if he... like broke a hundred mirrors like all in one go, but he's got some bad luck. ah Zeke, do you think, I mean, I guess the answer has to be yes by default because frankly we don't we don't know what the quarterback room passing game is going to look like.
00:14:24
Speaker
Do you think that this offense is going to have to run through its running backs just to function or do you think they're going to be able to like sling the ball the way that they did with Finley and McLeod?
00:14:35
Speaker
I think
00:14:38
Speaker
At the moment, yes. But something that I think can't go understated is or was G.J. Kinney's ability to rebuild this team and roster when he took it over from Jake Spavadol, I guess it would be two years ago, going into the 2023 season.
00:14:58
Speaker
Because Jake Spavadol notoriously refused to recruit um high school kids and had a very very poor time at Texas State.
00:15:11
Speaker
Eight and five, 13 wins over four years at Texas State. And the very next year, G.J. Kinney brought in a bunch of guys, um some of them his own from Incarnate Word, but most of them not, brought in pieces from other places and turned this into a very good eight-win team.
00:15:32
Speaker
And so I have more faith in this team's ability and G.J. Kinney's ability to identify transfer talent that is otherwise ah untested at FBS or inexperienced at FBS, um as opposed to other teams in the conference.
00:15:51
Speaker
I was very harsh on Old Dominion and Ricky Ronnie's ability to do that because I don't feel like we've seen a track record of him being able to identify guys that really are underlooked or just are getting passed up at bigger schools.
00:16:08
Speaker
We've seen that from G.J. Kinney. ah we We saw his ability to shoot recruit Jordan McLeod over instead of ah you know whether he had the opportunity to go to Indiana um or didn't.
00:16:22
Speaker
Jordan McLeod could have gone P5 very, very easily last season. but Kenny got him in. um And so I feel incredibly optimistic in their ability to have identified guys that ah will be a competent quarterback, one of these guys, ah in the running backs to surround Lincoln Pear, who is already there, replaced the two or three wide receivers in Joey Hobart and Jaden Williams, who were each exceptional, and Hobart's been very good for a while now. So um I think as it stands right now, on paper, there's not a ton here.
00:17:01
Speaker
But if we get to week four and week five, and again, I'm not super, super ah bullish on this team's long-term success or I guess over the course of the season.
00:17:14
Speaker
But I think this could be a more talented team than it appears in this exact moment.
Defensive Challenges and Potential Solutions
00:17:20
Speaker
Here's my problem with that thought. Yeah. You know, I will give you his first year. You know, he came in under some pretty wild circumstances, put together a really good roster.
00:17:31
Speaker
They went eight and five. And then that first full off season, he puts together an even better roster with Jordan McLeod and a handful of other really talented players.
00:17:44
Speaker
And they went eight and five again. Yeah. so that So that's the coaching ceiling, but I don't think that speaks any to talent identification or ability to restock this team with 500 or plus 500 talent. And I don't necessarily disagree with that, but if you're a Texas State fan, where's the optimism coming from?
00:18:08
Speaker
like like What are you optimistic about? oh, we're going to go 8-5 for the third year in a row? Granted, that's something that Texas State as an FBS program has has yet to do.
00:18:19
Speaker
So, you know, if if that's what your goal for the year is, then great. Good for you. That's awesome. But, you know, again, eight and five year one, you put together an even better roster. I mean, Zeke, you had this team going to the college football playoff last year.
00:18:33
Speaker
i did. did. i did i did but For them is a massive disappointment. can i can Can I ask you guys a question, Zeke, before you before you ah get into what you were going to say?
00:18:46
Speaker
Okay. So the first two years under Kenny, they go eight and five. Each of those years, they averaged over 36 points per game. Looking at this offense as it sits today, and we'll get into the rest of the skill positions here shortly, do we think this offense is going to average 36 points per game? And if not, they're probably going be worse than eight and five.
00:19:08
Speaker
Sure. The fact that you averaged 36 points a game in the Sun Belt, and look, I don't say that to knock the Sun Belt, but let's let's be realistic.
00:19:20
Speaker
If you're scoring 36 points a game in the Sun Belt, you should be heavily in the conversation for a conference title.
00:19:28
Speaker
And they lost five games both times. I'm not saying DJ Kenny's a bad coach, but if I'm a Texas state fan, I'm not super optimistic at what I'm looking at for 2025.
00:19:40
Speaker
I'm just not. Matt, let me let me let me do you one better real quick. Sorry, Zeke, to cut you off. water yeah um I'll be done right after this. Matt, let me put it in perspective last year. They allowed thirty six are they scored points per game. They only allowed and allowed 32 points per game. Yeah.
00:19:56
Speaker
and they went eight and five the same record they had as the year before when they allowed thirty two points per game So it seems to not matter. ah You know, it's like everything stays like the defense can change.
00:20:10
Speaker
Everything else stays just the same. And the roster got glaringly worse. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I was going to bring up the... This is not to speak to record, but to the defense. Last year, they did return eight defensive starters. This year, that number is two.
00:20:30
Speaker
So that's a stark difference. But 24.5 points a game, that is not like the horrific Arkansas State-type numbers um that I feel like, Matt, you were kind of alluding to.
00:20:44
Speaker
Obviously, this number is artificially deflated by allowing – Maybe artificially is a little too harsh, but definitely deflated significantly by holding Southern Miss to three points, by holding Arkansas State to nine.
00:20:59
Speaker
But conversely, it's also extremely inflated by 52 points allowed to Georgia State. That is not what this defense was typically doing. Same thing with 40 against Sam Houston.
00:21:11
Speaker
Most weeks, they weren't allowing... more than five touchdowns. So ah I think I refute this idea that um we're looking at a Arkansas State-level defense.
00:21:24
Speaker
um But again, that hinges on a very... admittedly very thin assumption that GJ Kinney has identified talent to replace the nine other guys that are not returning starters.
00:21:40
Speaker
Uh, I recognize that hinges on a really big assumption. Um, but as I said, especially as compared to other teams in this conference that I feel really strongly have proven not just unable, but incompetent in doing that.
00:21:58
Speaker
Um, I think G.J. Kinney has has the best track record, at least in recent history, of restocking this team. So let's get let's go ahead and break into the pass catcher spot. So quarterback seems like it's a big who knows.
00:22:16
Speaker
um Frankly, none of these guys have played significant snaps um at the college level. So we'll see who ultimately wins the job week one. But you return...
00:22:29
Speaker
You know, basically one starter and one guy who played sparingly last year in kind of a rotational role. You get Chris Dawn back, who's 5'7", 170. He had yards last year in games. and had 271 yards.
00:22:43
Speaker
Again, would want my number one again would i want my number one receiver to be five seven one seventy ideally not Not really, but they theyre you know we recorded our Georgia Southern episode, and it's like I talked about how they run Josh Dallas out of the slot a lot.
00:23:07
Speaker
I think it really doesn't matter because Chris Don can run the majority of his routes from the slot. I mean, Texas State really likes to spread it out, so I think that's totally fine.
00:23:18
Speaker
However, are these guys, is Bo Sparks going to be able to step up? Is Maven Anderson going to be able to step up? Like all of these guys are kind of question marks for me. ah They get to quell in Mims over from Southern Miss, which is not exactly, 2024 Southern Miss wasn't a ah team that I wanted to pilfer from last year, um just talent wise.
00:23:41
Speaker
yeah, What do what do we kind of expect from the pass catchers to help out these this group of, this glut of quarterbacks who we don't really know who's going emerge?
00:23:52
Speaker
One of these guys is obviously going to have to step up and become a number one type guy. um But even as you said, Brian, this team spreads it out and does pretty fine without like a really, really elite, super, super high volume guy.
00:24:11
Speaker
Joey Hobert last year led the team in receptions with 70 yards. Jaden Williams led the team in receiving yards with 800 yards. but did so on only 57 catches.
00:24:21
Speaker
So this is an offense that's fairly comfortable ah letting it, instead of it being guy one and everyone else, there being a handful of four to five to 600 type yard receivers.
00:24:36
Speaker
However, that obviously hinges on a guy like a Hobart or Williams who can either make 70 catches over the course of the year, get open that many times, or in the case of Jaden Williams, ah can do far more than what his receiving like actual catch numbers would indicate.
00:24:54
Speaker
um So it's a matter of who is going to step up. But from a depth perspective, I feel good, not ah not great, but like good enough with this group.
00:25:07
Speaker
I agree with you in theory about the having kind of a group of guys that all contribute, but Matt, let me throw it to you with this question. So we're talking about trying to replicate what they did offensively the last two years where they averaged 36 points per game.
00:25:22
Speaker
Last year, Texas state had three receivers that had over 600 yards, including again, Jaden Williams led the team with 807 yards.
00:25:33
Speaker
ah Do we anticipate that they're going to have put up those kind of numbers again, especially with the uncertainty at the quarterback spot? No. I don't anticipate that at all.
Wide Receivers' Role in Offensive Success
00:25:45
Speaker
And if any guy that that I see on the roster is going to do that, it is Ty Mims from Southern Miss. He is a dynamic playmaker 179 pounds.
00:25:57
Speaker
but you talked about chris dawn he's five foot seven um you You can be a dynamic playmaker. 5'7", a wide receiver is is not a recipe for success. like It's just not.
00:26:09
Speaker
um You've got Kylan Evans, who's six to He's a sophomore. um you've You've got a couple of six-footers. But there's really not a whole lot of size to to this wide receiver room, which is a concern for me.
00:26:23
Speaker
Because in this era of you know possession wide receivers kind of starting to win out in um in a good mix of possession receivers and deep threats, um i don't I don't feel confident that you have a good middle of the field possession guy.
00:26:41
Speaker
um You probably got a lot of deep ball guys, but again, if you don't have a quarterback that can get it down there, then you know you might you you might not ah you might not have the opportunity to showcase that talent. You've got a lot of receivers.
00:26:54
Speaker
um So from from a depth perspective, you know there's definitely options, um but I just don't know anything about these guys other than Ty Mims. do Do I think that he he's getting 800 yards this year? Probably not.
00:27:09
Speaker
ah But, I mean, Ty Mims, if he stays healthy, he's a 500-600-yard receiver for this team. I do want to point to Tyron Smith, who is now granted, i guess it would be two full seasons removed from this, transfers in from Cincinnati, but before that was at UTEP, where in 2022 had over 1,000 yards on 70 catches. The year after, ah he only played four games on Stumbling here, i would assume that's injury.
00:27:41
Speaker
And then in Cincinnati, did not really do much there. But like that's a guy right there that's proven to be ah wide receiver type ah wide receiver one type guy ah from volume and from yardage.
00:27:54
Speaker
Matt, you're not going to like this. He's five seven It's crazy that three receiver sets could all be 5'7", in theory. You could have Mims, Smith, and Dawn all on the field at the same time.
00:28:07
Speaker
that That's a very short group. Hopefully they don't ask that group to do a lot of pass blocking or run blocking rather. um But I think, like I said, I think there's certainly between Sparks, between Don, who were both pretty good last year in this offense, and then Tyron Smith.
00:28:27
Speaker
Again, he's two years. now removed from it but is proven to be wide receiver one worthy. there There is someone here that is capable of drawing enough attention to help his team elevate his teammates from 300 yard guys to 550 guys.
00:28:47
Speaker
Maybe not six, maybe not seven, but 550 type guys or 500 type guys.
00:28:54
Speaker
So is it fair to say there's not going to be a lot of jump balls thrown in San Marcos this season? No. No goal line fades. They're kind of screwed like Hail Marys. You might as well just kneel it out at that point.
00:29:07
Speaker
A lot of jet touch pass. what if What if one of the receivers put another one on his shoulders and then they caught it that way? like a hit they They ran a Hail Mary play like that way. Like a game of chicken?
00:29:19
Speaker
Or like two guys two kids in a trench coat like trying to sneak into an R-rated movie. with the height you're losing by kind of sitting because you lose your legs there.
00:29:30
Speaker
There's still probably a defensive back taller than that. I disagree. I disagree. If you if a 5'9 guy puts a five foot seven kid on his shoulders, even even if you lose the height for the weight differential, you're still looking at a 7-footer right there. like ah Yeah, but he's running a 7'840. That's true.
00:29:54
Speaker
yeah if that sure yeah yeah if that right If that, it's really hard to run with a guy your exact size on your shoulders. All right. ah So as tends to usually be the case.
00:30:07
Speaker
ah Well, actually, no. So they they lose their tight end from last year. They bring over a transfer ah from two years ago at Oklahoma. Blake Smith, who didn't play last year.
00:30:20
Speaker
ah Matt, I don't know if you know anything about Ty Stamey, who played last year sparingly at Louisiana. ah He's another tight end option. In theory... I think this defense is going to take a step back. So in theory, I think they're going to have to throw the ball a lot more ah just because, you know, running the ball last year with like Motti and and pair ah was a little bit of a a
Offensive Line's Role and Concerns
00:30:45
Speaker
luxury. And frankly, I don't know that they're going to be afforded kind of the same luxury with the defensive play that they had last year, Matt.
00:30:52
Speaker
Yeah, it's going to be really interesting to see how that all plays out. Ty Stamey's a talented tight end. um he he He's a guy that can make things happen but for Texas State.
00:31:03
Speaker
ah But again, you know, saw limited time on the field, so it's kind of hard to really put a finger on what he could do. But, ah you know, I saw him in practice on several occasions while he was at Louisiana, and he he's definitely got, you know, potential to to be a really solid tight end option.
00:31:21
Speaker
But, you know, going back to the receivers and the skill players as a whole, ah Lincoln Pairs are really good running back, right? He's a guy that can really make things happen.
00:31:31
Speaker
But outside of that, you know, ah inconsistency at the quarterback position, You don't have a lot of size, a wide receiver, and a big question mark at tight end. i just Again, i don't want to sound like the Debbie Downer and Mr. Pessimist, but I just don't see a ton to get excited about with with this Texas State offense.
00:31:56
Speaker
Well, things don't don't get much better on the offensive line. ah You do return two starters there in left tackle Dorian st Strawn, who played had 13 starts for them, and then the center, Telek Lockett, who had also had thirtys all started all 13 games last year.
00:32:14
Speaker
ah You get a transfer at right guard in Lysander Mielolo from Syracuse, Emeka Obigbo,
00:32:26
Speaker
ah from who played a little bit last year but wasn't like a full-time starter. And then left right tackle Sully Burns ah appeared in games for them last year but did not just start.
00:32:40
Speaker
So they were sparingly playing but not full-time guys. ah Zeke, as far as the offensive line goes, you've got your left tackle in your center.
00:32:51
Speaker
So in theory, you've got, i guess, two, the two most important spots on the offensive line have have significant experience. Do you think they're going to be able to cobble together the rest of the spots on the line?
00:33:03
Speaker
Yeah, so this is a great time to plug that we're having Phil Steele on the show. ah As we sit here, we're going to have him on next week.
00:33:14
Speaker
It's July 31st. He'll be on next week. Not certain when that episode is going out. so But I say this to say, question for Phil Steele. What does he see in this offensive line that – I certainly don't.
00:33:27
Speaker
He has this as the second best or jointly the second best offensive line group in the conference. I said nausea or at length earlier, i think the running back room is going to be good.
00:33:43
Speaker
I think the wide receiver room is going to be good. I think the quarterback room is going to be good. Again, not great, but good. um This offensive line can undo all of that. As you said, Brian,
00:33:55
Speaker
With Lockett and Strawn, you have, in theory, ah two real bedrock guys at arguably the two most important positions. um But outside of that, we're looking at a lot of inexperience. And inexperience is always going to worry me. And again, i will bang this drum forever.
00:34:15
Speaker
Number one running back, a guy who can sustain a full season's worth of touches ah and offensive line. Those are probably the two most important positions where You need experience. um And the lack of that gives me a lot of worry.
00:34:29
Speaker
And so I will not be there for the field Phil Steele episode. um So please, i implore both of you to figure out what it is he's seeing or what he's hearing about this group ah that I'm clearly missing.
00:34:44
Speaker
Matt, what are your thoughts on the the offensive line and if they can keep, I guess, Luster, if he's the quarterback that they go with, upright ah and and create running lanes for Burrell and Pear and all these other running backs?
00:34:58
Speaker
I hope that whoever ends up playing quarterback for Texas State has a really good insurance policy.
00:35:05
Speaker
Yikes. I hope he has a really good insurance policy. um Yeah, I mean, again, like like i like I said, you return two starters from from last year.
00:35:17
Speaker
i mean, the offensive line was solid last year. They weren't you know great, um but they they certainly weren't bad with that 8-5 team. um If I look at the numbers, i think Jordan McLeod was sacked.
00:35:32
Speaker
20 times last year, maybe more, maybe less. um But ah again, it's, it's a decent group. It's nothing to write home about.
00:35:44
Speaker
um But, but again, I think it's just going to come down to my, my big thing with their offense is going to be the lack of skill players. um Link, link and pair. Yeah.
00:35:56
Speaker
has bounced around the Sunbelt Conference, right? Arkansas State, Georgia State, Texas State. He loves the state schools. The only one he didn't get to play at was app, but, um, you know, I will, we'll, we'll see what, what he's able to do.
00:36:15
Speaker
You know, when we believe he's going to be a featured back finally, um, in, in his, in his Sunbelt career. But, uh, yeah, again, the offensive line, I'm in the same boat as, as the skill players.
00:36:28
Speaker
I just don't have confidence that that they're built for success. Um, and some in 2025. I want to jump in before we get too far removed from this. um Never played for Georgia State, I don't believe.
00:36:45
Speaker
Did he not? did i Did I dream that? I'm looking at his profile on Texas State's website. says he's been there at Texas State since 22 and did two years at Arkansas State.
Defensive Outlook and Returnee Impact
00:36:57
Speaker
Yeah, I think he went straight from Arkansas State to Texas State. ah Did I get him and Tucker Gregg confused? Yeah. but look a big Both good white boys that can run. Or hefty white guys. Wow. Brian, go ahead. We all look the same, don't we, Matt? We all look the same. Anyway, defensively...
00:37:16
Speaker
let move fun we all look the same don't we met we all look the same ah all right so anyway ah ah so defensively la la defensively there's not a ton of uh returning production either uh two returning starters from last year khalil alexander the defensive end and ryan nolan the strong safety comeback from last year ah Phil Steele, again, that ah Zeke and I said this on the last episode, Phil Steele is very bullish on a lot of teams that even us three on the episodes that we've done have been like, all right, pump the brakes.
00:38:00
Speaker
He has them defensively giving up almost 400 yards per game on defense this year. ah If you combine that with an offense that in theory is not going to reach that 36-point mark,
00:38:14
Speaker
I think there's some there's a real reality check coming for this team. Yeah. yeah um Yeah. If their defense is going to give up 400 yards a game, they are in big, big, big, big trouble.
00:38:29
Speaker
um Again, we're you're not the ones saying they're going to give up 400 yards a game. that That's Phil Steele saying that. Correct. We're just relaying the message. That's a guy that knows more than I do.
00:38:40
Speaker
yeah But, you know, ah again, we we harp on the the defenses of the last couple of years because, you know, they had these great dynamic offenses and their defenses let them down on several occasions.
00:38:53
Speaker
um which which which led to back-to-back eight and five seasons. um So if if this defense continues to take another step back and you know you're you're giving up 400 yards consistently, um we might be looking at Texas State as a five-win team.
00:39:10
Speaker
in 2025. Yeah. which Which is just crazy to think about again after being eight and five the last two years under GJ Kenny where you you know you continue to think okay well you know maybe Texas State will continue to hang around and you know in their final year in the Sun Belt maybe they could actually compete for the title but if they're going to give up 400 yards game in the Sun Belt you're you're done.
00:39:35
Speaker
um Yeah. So, so again, um um' i'm struggling a little bit with the roster tonight because I don't have my feel still magazine in front of me. It got lost in the move.
00:39:47
Speaker
That's why you go digital. um I'm going to find it. before our next episode, hopefully. um If not, I'll just go buy another one. um But yeah, yeah it's it's one of those things where if that's truly the number that they end up giving up this season, um it's going to be an even worse fall than even I thought five minutes ago ah for this Texas State team.
00:40:12
Speaker
I... am I think trying to pick silver linings so that we are not the negative Nancy podcast as a we tend to be.
00:40:24
Speaker
ah but Well, look, if you suck, you suck. here's
Roster Construction and Schedule Challenges
00:40:29
Speaker
Here's the thing. The only silver lining I'm finding right now is that most of the projected starters, again, per Phil Steele,
00:40:38
Speaker
were on the roster last year. They're not unknowns to the team, to the coaching staff. um That means something. kind Continuity.
00:40:52
Speaker
um that That's got to be something. um I love that continuity, baby. yeah As has been the case for this team or was the past two years, and as is another team in the mold, Arkansas State, that we've talked about, this is not a roster construction that is ah built for long orterm short-term success.
00:41:17
Speaker
This can win you games that you would not expect, but it will also lose you games that you do not expect, where you do not have a wealth of riches defensively.
00:41:30
Speaker
again, i think that more so than the offensive line um is going to hold this team back from being a really good group.
00:41:41
Speaker
um With that said...
00:41:45
Speaker
Nothing. Nothing. i was trying. and i was fishing. I was fishing. With that said, I'm done talking. let's Let's look at the schedule now, shall we? Yeah. um I don't know if this matters because G.J. Kinney is an offensive guy. They do have a new offensive coordinator.
00:42:04
Speaker
Just thought I'd throw that out there. That's good for this guy. He's got an easy job. yeah he's he's He's getting a paycheck. Good for him. all right Good luck with your next promotion. The schedule. yeah let's let's Let's dive into it, boys. ah I'll take the liberty of doing this.
00:42:20
Speaker
Season opener and bowl championship celebration. against Eastern Michigan on August 30th. Then they go to the Alamo Dome to take on UTSA in the I-35 showdown ah before going out west to play Arizona State on TNT.
00:42:40
Speaker
College football on TNT. Who would have seen that coming? I need Charles Barkley doing pregame. Terrible. Texas State, you're terrible. This Texas State ah offense is terrible.
00:42:52
Speaker
It's just terrible. And then they come back to Santa Marvelous to welcome Nichols. Guys, could Nichols beat Texas? I'm kidding.
00:43:03
Speaker
and I don't think so. and i'm I'm kidding. I'm just throwing jabs. um Troy for homecoming on October 11th before they go to Huntington to take on Marshall. ah Then they come back to San Marcos to welcome James Madison on a Tuesday night on national television on ESPN2.
00:43:20
Speaker
ah they And then they back-to-back Western Conference, Western Division Road Games against Louisiana and Southern Miss ah before they return to San Marcos for back-to-back weekends against ULM and South Owl.
00:43:35
Speaker
to end the season. That stretch from October 28th until November 15th. Oh yeah, baby. and when are you now Better you than me is what I have to say about that. Brutal.
00:43:52
Speaker
um everybody Everybody say it with me. Look, I'm practicing as an English teacher. but Let's work on on on phonics here. Everybody say brew. Brew? Toll.
00:44:04
Speaker
Toll. Are you teaching high school freshman phonics? Do you want like a kindergarten thing? I think matt Brian's daughter is starting that. I think my daughter knows how to pronounce brutal.
00:44:16
Speaker
ah And she's getting ready to turn five. So... ah so yeah so ah again not a ton of gimmies on the schedule i think i can count a couple of gimmies but also kind of the similar to the georgia southern episode we did the thing that has happened with gj kenny the last couple years is they look very good for a bit and then it just sort of goes over the over the rail uh so you're gonna have a loss or two in here outside of the three game stretch that we just talked about with jmu louisiana and southern miss where you drop a game like a georgia state or you know one of those opponents where you're like why did we lose to old dominion like or why did we lose to you know
00:45:10
Speaker
I'm i'm sure Sam Houston State.
Predicting Texas State's Season Outcome
00:45:12
Speaker
Like, why are we losing these games? And it's like, oh, because we like do the kind of same thing that Georgia Southern does. And we take our foot off the gas for certain games for no seemingly no real reason.
00:45:24
Speaker
um
00:45:26
Speaker
I'd like to add in the so in the same Houston game, they blew a 22 point lead ah last year. So a 22 point first quarter lead. That was a fun one to to keep up with.
00:45:38
Speaker
But this is what I'm saying. Like they're going to drop a game where it's like they're probably going to lose a South Owl ah to end the season. Maybe they're going to lose a game like a ah Troy, and Arkansas State. One of these is going to be a loss mixed in with the the tough games that they actually have to play as well.
00:45:58
Speaker
I think I've got them like five, six wins. I mean, there this is an easy under for me because they'd have to win eight games to cover the win total. I've got them six and six.
00:46:10
Speaker
ah Seven and five. I think those first four games, anything really could happen like I think there's a world. I don't think it is the most likely outcome, but I think there's an absolute world where Texas State comes out of that 3-1, possibly even 4-0.
00:46:32
Speaker
Again, i'm not saying that's... They're not beating Arizona State. let's be let's Let's be real. Arizona State's a potential playoff team, and it's in Tempe. They're not beating Arizona State.
00:46:45
Speaker
They come out of it three and one that's ah That's nearly halfway to... I mean, I've got them. I think I have them at seven. Floor is four. ah Ceiling for me is nine.
00:46:56
Speaker
I have them at seven.
00:47:00
Speaker
What are you scoffing at? Nine wins. of The ceiling's at nine. All right. I'll give you the nine winnable games right here. Eastern Michigan. he's He's doing it again. I know. He's doing again.
00:47:14
Speaker
UTSA, Nichols, Arkansas State, Troy, Marshall, Southern Miss, ULM. Oh, that's eight. I miscounted. Matt, you know how like in the in the George Clooney Batman movie, he's like trying to resist poison ivy the whole time. And and then eventually he just kind of gives in and like, you know, she gets him under his spell. That's Zeke in Texas State. I don't know what he's going to do next year.
00:47:39
Speaker
He may undergo withdrawals, like just not being able to like take this team and go, ah they're probably to win like they could win nine games. It's like eight. hu zes You just went through the lose the winnable games. How about I go through the losable games? Here we go. UTSA, Arizona State, Arkansas State, Marshall, James Madison, Louisiana, Southern Miss, ULM, South Al.
00:48:06
Speaker
What did I say? I said my floor was four. That gives them three wins. My floor is four. I think we're ah we're pretty aligned there. Matt, what's their ceiling?
00:48:18
Speaker
I guarantee it's not nine. Yeah. If they have a great season, they're eight four. think their ceiling is seven regular season wins and they beat a directional school in the ball. And still third place in the West.
00:48:41
Speaker
Like, that's that's their ceiling. Third place in the West.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
00:48:46
Speaker
Yeah, this this really is probably year this really isn't the year to be like totally reloading.
00:48:52
Speaker
you know like this would be a yeah and i know you can't control those those kind of things as a coach, but like if you port last year's team over to this year, i think the sky is basically the limit.
00:49:06
Speaker
But when you're starting over, yeah again, you have five starters returning over an entire out of 22 positions on offense and defense. like Yeah.
00:49:17
Speaker
I'm just like, this isn't the year to do that. Like you're going to be in the middle of the, those teams in the West where it's like, you're right there with Arkansas state or Troy or South Al. Like everybody has down years. Unfortunately for Texas state, they're going to be down on their last year in the Sunbelt.
00:49:37
Speaker
And then we'll we'll send them off on like a ah Viking funeral boat and then someone will shoot like a flaming arrow and just set the boat on fire. Send them off to the Valhalla that is Pac-12 after dark.
00:49:51
Speaker
Yep. And you guys can play watch watch it on HBO Max or wherever wherever they're going to be broadcasting this game. Paramount Plus. The gas station television network.
00:50:02
Speaker
Yeah. If I'm pumping my gas one night and I look over and it's Texas State and Nick, I'm going to be like, what the hell's going on here?
00:50:13
Speaker
I'm going to be like Tim Robinson and I think you should leave. What the hell? buts Just be like staring at the screen like as hard as I get. What the hell? All right. So any last minute thoughts as we sign off?
00:50:26
Speaker
It's just a terrible football team. It just is. It's a tough year to be bad in the Sun Belt. You just can't do it. That's such a good Charles Barkley impression. You just can't be bad in the Sun Belt this year. It's just tough.
00:50:38
Speaker
There's too many good teams. they're they're just They're just terrible. ah ernie art ken kenny Kenny, shut up. Shut up, Kenny. Because you see, I'm tired of you talking. All right, let's start signing At Zeke Palermo. Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-M-R-M-O. E-M-R-O?
00:50:54
Speaker
eat and losing the r m o e m r o Dog, you were too in my head. You can see it right below my name. You can find all of our stats.
00:51:06
Speaker
You can also find the show on Twitter at WarmWeatherFans. Please tweet at the show. You can also email us, WarmWeatherFans at gmail.com. We want to hear what you say.
00:51:16
Speaker
Texas State fans, let us know what you think of this team and what you're looking forward to in the Pac-12. Shout out to Zeke Palomaro. Palomaro.
00:51:29
Speaker
Rafael Palmeiro's brother. Matt, go ahead. You can find me on social media at Miguez Matt, as always. You can find the show, obviously, on X at Warm Weather Fans.
00:51:42
Speaker
ah We will be having ah Phil Steele on, as Zeke mentioned earlier. Send us questions to that email address. If they are legitimate questions, we will ask, or I will ask. Matt, I still am unconfirmed whether you're going be able to make it. Probably not, right?
00:51:58
Speaker
ah All right. I can ask Phil Steele those on the air. As always, you can find me on X at WatchTheStone. ah That has been Matt Migos. That has been Zeke Palmetto.
00:52:08
Speaker
ah This is Brian Stone signing off to the War Weather Fans Sunbelt Podcast.