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Saratoga Late Pick 5 for Friday, July 3rd
159 Plays28 days ago
GQ and Eric return off the layoff to preview the final 5 races at Saratoga on opening day, Friday, July 3rd.
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction and Podcast Return
00:00:23
Speaker
Yes, I just got there today. Them wild-eyed boys that had been away. Haven't changed, hadn't much to say.
00:00:33
Speaker
But then I still think I'm just afraid. They were asking if you were allowed. Are you once where you could be found? Told them you were living downtown.
00:00:44
Speaker
Driving on the old men quiz. The boys are back in town. The boys are back in town.
00:01:01
Speaker
Hello and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill, and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
Why Return to Podcasting?
00:01:15
Speaker
Hello and welcome back to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ, how be you? It's been almost 18 months, Eric, since we last did this it's like we're starting all over again, thankfully.
00:01:35
Speaker
But hey, lot of changes in, I guess, our lives. I won't bore everyone with the details, but... I'm semi-retired, still still doing some work just because of boredom.
00:01:49
Speaker
But you have changes in your life now? That is true. I've cut down a lot of responsibilities, so I have a lot more free time. and We were actually up in Saratoga on Belmont State's weekend, and we were hanging out with a nice crew.
00:02:06
Speaker
And one of them, who was about 25 quarter-slights in, Jeff said we – we do the podcast or restart it and we had been talking about a little bit so he kind of spurred us into action so uh big dave thank you maybe we know if you're listening too because uh we get the numbers by state so if virginia doesn't have at least one listener we know he's not listening yes that's right give give all the credit or blame depending on how you want to look at it on big dave from virginia he he inspired us uh
00:02:39
Speaker
And because your summers, you're basically a free man during the summer. You have the time. and I have more time than I used to, we figured, what the heck, um let's give it a go again.
Eric's Betting Strategy Shift
00:02:53
Speaker
so here we are for better or for worse after our 18-month layoff. Yeah, and forgive some ah audio issues if we have any. Hopefully it comes out okay, but we're trying a new platform here, and I'm not sure how it's going to go. My microphone is not working, so I'm probably not too clear, hopefully.
00:03:11
Speaker
It's not killing the podcast, but it will get better within the next few weeks as I learn the new technology a little better. And we're going to focus lot on betting. I know we've talked about that in the past and we have a little bit, but really focus on betting. One big change for me as far as betting, I've become much more of a vertical better. You know, used to be a huge pick five guy and,
00:03:29
Speaker
I would get mostly pick fives. And now I would say my vertical betting is the same, if not more than my pick fives. It kind of varies depending on the sequence and races, but I feel a lot more comfortable. I've had a lot more success doing vertical betting. So I feel like I can talk about a little better here and hopefully help some people out because really isn't that much out there to help people put together bets.
00:03:48
Speaker
So that's where I'm coming from on the
Saratoga Late Pick Five Strategies
00:03:50
Speaker
reboot. Anything from your end? what did But what seems like it hasn't changed, at least for our debut or reboot is we're going to go over the late pick five on opening day of Saratoga Friday, which starts in race seven, which we might as well get right into it because I made Eric promise me that it's going to be less than an hour show from now on. I'm trying to holding the 30 minutes, but we know that won't happen. So um without further ado, let's get into the Saratoga card.
Race 7 Analysis at Saratoga
00:04:28
Speaker
It is the ah seventh race is the late pick five, and it's a seven furlong event allowance, 120,000 non-winners or one other than,
00:04:42
Speaker
as i said going seven furlongs for three-year-olds and upward who have never won 22,000 other than a maiden claiming star or state bred allowance or which have never won two races. And so, Eric, as we look at the field, the morning line favorite, very, ah very contentious race.
00:05:05
Speaker
The morning line favorite the two-horse Bell, belgian i guess belgian you know world cup belgian they're playing as as we're recording this um my question here is been away since and almost as long as we have we're long you know uh october 25. my question is why come back here because it appears they were going to make this horse a turf horse Well, first of all, you want to cut the show. You read every condition. You didn't read the weights in the condition, but thank you for reading every part of the condition book there. um
00:05:42
Speaker
I actually thought that the Chad Brown one-horse silver talent would be the morning line favorite. I studied this before the morning line, kind of made my own morning lines, and I had him at five to two, but David Ergon is excellent, so he's probably going to be right.
00:05:55
Speaker
um As far as why back here, i have no clue. I can make up things, but I don't know. He ran a... Big number on the dirt, so perhaps they just want to come back on the dirt because they think he can run well in the dirt.
00:06:09
Speaker
I really don't know. But I think in general, betting against short-priced horses off of long layoffs, especially on the dirt, is a good way to go. So while Belgian can win this race, especially if he repeats that speed figure,
00:06:26
Speaker
It's a horse I would bet against, and I thought he would be more five six to 1. So I'm kind of surprised at the three to one morning line, but I hope it's correct because I'll be betting against Belgian. So as you teased, you or more in are are you more interested in the one silver talent, or that was just your opinion that he might be the favorite?
00:06:46
Speaker
No, I'm definitely more interested in the one than the two. I actually found this race pretty challenging. don't. I don't think the four private desire has a a great chance here. I know he's a long shot. So if you like him out there, use them. Don't listen to me.
00:06:59
Speaker
I'm betting against a two and I'm going try and bet against a three also hit the post who also can win this race. He put up a huge speed figure, at least buyer figure. I didn't look at time form or anything else, but got a huge speed figure last time, but it was over that Saratoga course during Belmont stakes weekend there week And speed was playing really well, especially earlier in the week. So he, what was it, Friday, I guess that was.
00:07:23
Speaker
So it wasn't like you had to be on the lead, but it helped. So I think he's a little dressed up off of that race. I think this is a tougher field as well. Kenny B is a decent New York bred horse, but I think these horses, while running similar speed figures, have much more upside and might be better. so yeah, I'm going to bet against the two Belgium and the three hit the post from his, don't know who I really want to bet, but I'm definitely betting against those, ah those two.
00:07:46
Speaker
um As far as the pace, initially, I thought there was a lot of early speed, but in reality, there's horses who seem to be wanting to be forwardly placed, but not necessarily on the speed like hit the post.
00:08:02
Speaker
So how do you think the pace is going to pan out? I mean, if you believe time for him, and I have no reason not to in this case, the three should have the lead, and his best races are on the lead. That's basically how he runs. When he doesn't get the lead, it's kind of ugly. So I can't imagine with Sean Bridgman he's not going to um The question is, will he go the whole way? i mean, I don't think the distance is an issue. I just – I don't know. It's silly to say a horse ran 98 by or is he good enough? I just i just think that there'll be horses close enough and he's not going to just walk on the lead. But listen, if you're out there and you're like, hey, he's a lone speed and the way the track played two weeks ago, why can't it play like, or whatever it was, three, four weeks ago now, why can't it play the same way?
00:08:43
Speaker
I can see people liking the horse. But like I said, I'm going to go against him. I mean, I think the one in seven is nothing clever, are the two horses to beat personally. Silver Talent, the one for Chad Brown with Flavian Pratt, who i really thought and probably still think is to be the favorite.
00:08:58
Speaker
um He doesn't break very well. And being on the inside post, that might not be a ah great thing. But he was very visually impressive last time breaking his maiden. I thought he ran really well. He improved off his first start.
00:09:10
Speaker
He has to break okay. I guess if he doesn't, it's not that big a field and he has time to get the outside and stalk or whatever he would do. So I like the one. And the seven white smoke rise, who I thought also would be a little shorter than his 9-2 morning line.
00:09:25
Speaker
That horse ran really well first out. Had a slow start in that first race. I thought ran really well after that. Had a little time off, came back, broke his maiden easily for Charlie Baker. Johnny Velasquez was up. He's going to ride again. Notice how they were both 72 cents on the dollar, the one in the seven last race. That's kind of odd. yeah I mean, they're stepping up in class, both of them, but you got horses who are coming out of starter allowances and state red races. So I don't know if it's necessarily the toughest field for this level. So I think the one in seven and the two horses to beat.
00:09:57
Speaker
As far as betting the race, it's probably not a race would bet unless the two and three are short prices. Like if they're their morning line price, i would probably bet key to one and seven. And I use a five and six with them. Fort Nelson, Magnanimous Max.
00:10:14
Speaker
It's not – I mean I don't love to use four horses when there's not like big prices. And again, I'm only doing that if the two and three are short prices and leaving them out. But I can see, and depending on how you're betting, ah what your budget is, I can see boxing 1, 5, 6, 7. Again, not a great bet, but just to have it all. And then I would key the 1 with the 5, 6, 7, as exact as, let's say. And then 1, 7 extra. And then I would um come back, probably do 7 with 5, 6 as well. So basically, I key the 1 and 7 extra with the 5 and 6 and with each other. So you if it comes in 5, 6, I might only have a dollar exact to box. If it comes in one with one of those orders or seven with one of those orders, I'll have a couple of dollars. And it comes in one seven, I'll have even more on it. And I do very similar in the triples where, you know, maybe I would box four of them in a 50 cent triple and then key the one in seven extra. So if the one in seven are in the top three, I'll have it maybe for $1.50 instead of 50 cents. And it won't cost too much to do that. But you know you're talking all those bets could come out to about $40, $50.
00:11:15
Speaker
forty fifty dollars So if that's too... Big a budget for some people I can see cutting down, but that's kind of where I'm at there. I would just cut out the spready bets, maybe not the four horse boxes if you don't want to ah you don't wanna invest too much. Or maybe just don't press and spread a little there and you won't make as much, but at least you'll have a chance at making a little bit of money.
00:11:34
Speaker
Hopefully that makes some sense. Yeah, and you touched on the horse that I landed on top, the seven horse. Kind of went back and forth. As you mentioned, the one and the seven are very similar in what they've done so far in their career. And I just
Wild Apple Applause Stakes Analysis
00:11:50
Speaker
think one of these two have more room to improve versus those who have had a half a dozen or more. starts and in their career. I'm just going to take a stand against the morning line favorite based on the fact of maybe maybe this is, know, the interesting thing I saw was that um even though he could ah run with Lasix, they're keeping Lasix off. So maybe they have bigger and better things ahead for him, want to keep him in stakes or think that much of him that he won't be able to run
00:12:25
Speaker
with Lasix in the stakes races, so they're doing that. But I'll just take a stand and think that the seven white smoke rising is an improving horse.
00:12:36
Speaker
Johnny V in that win back when May 7th was the first time. he had ridden for Baker horse in the past year. So, um and I think Johnny V might actually have a pretty good day at Saratoga based on at least the last, you know, last ah couple races.
00:12:57
Speaker
ah Let me real quick. I know we're, we're spending too much time, but real quick. I get a feeling that this type of race where you have not a prohibitive favorite and a lot of horses that you make excuses for, i think people wrongly just go all in this race.
00:13:19
Speaker
You know, which this is a race in my mind. This is a race where you take a stand because. You're going to get paid regardless unless you land on the horse that it turns out to be an eight to five betting favor or whatever.
00:13:34
Speaker
ah i just think handicappers sometimes look at the morning line odds, can't make make their mind up. So they just go all, which I think is a waste of money.
00:13:46
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, i'm I'm almost never an all fan, um especially in the first leg of a pick five where you can just come back in bed and pick four. Like if I honestly felt that there was a race, the first leg, and I had no idea what was going on, but I really liked the rest of the sequence. sequence I might just pick one horse or something like that or two or three horses and you know narrow it down, make it a cheaper ticket.
00:14:07
Speaker
And if I'm wrong, I'll just bet the pick five. um But so much of that pick five, that's why I don't know how much discussion we want to get into it and and go on too long. But so much of the pick five is what you're doing in the other legs. Like that's everything. So in this race, I can see using the one seven only.
00:14:23
Speaker
But I'd like to try and use 1-5-6-7, go against a 2-3 here. So that's my goal, to use a 1-5-6-7, depending on what goes on in the other legs. um you know we'll say You mentioned Johnny V. I just have a feeling Jose Ortiz, based on my opinions, might have a good last five races here. And Fort Nelson, the 5-3.
00:14:41
Speaker
I mean, I kind of want to pick him on top and listen, if he's a much bigger price, maybe I will, but, um, know, six to one is, is okay. you know, if he's a little higher, maybe I'd like him a little more, but I think he's rounding back into form. And, um, I used to be a big fan of that horse. So I think that horse has ah a decent shot here as well. So anyway, one, five, six, seven, are mostly what I'm doing in this race.
00:15:03
Speaker
Sounds good. Okay. Okay. Um, Move on to the eighth race. One mile on the inner turf. It's the $150,000 Wild Apple Applause Stakes for three-year-olds which have never won a sweepstakes.
00:15:20
Speaker
There's a field of 11 going. And your morning line favorite is the 7 Smexy.
00:15:32
Speaker
But I actually landed on the 7 Smexy. 92 more in line. Jose Ortiz, as you had mentioned, to Flame. um what do you What's your opinion, Eric?
00:15:46
Speaker
Yeah, this is another race where like usually if I'm in a better race, I want to either hate the favorite or love the favorite. And I like the favorite here. And if I like, if I don't love, but I like the Smexi. I love Smexi. I like Smexi.
00:16:00
Speaker
I can't say that. Sick Smexi. But if I like the favorite and I kind of want to use the favorite, I like it when I don't like the second choice. So I can bet against the second choice. But I guess the seven is the second choice. is I mean, it's pretty wide open. Or maybe the eight. They're kind of even the seven, eight, and ten.
00:16:17
Speaker
um But I like the seven like you do. So we're kind of on the same page here, two aflame. So anyway, as far as who I like, and then I'll i'll talk about betting here and why i like them. Just real quick, you you mentioned you like two aflame. This is a horse who two back in the Appalachian against grade two competition. I thought ran much better than it looks. That was a really hot pace that came apart.
00:16:39
Speaker
And the horse was two to three wide chasing that hot pace. not the way you want to do it on the turf. So I really upgraded that race. And I expected good things of him on May 1st. I'm trying to think, was that Derby Day or was that May 1st? Yes. that was what that wasn't No, no, that was ah um Oaks Day.
00:16:56
Speaker
then I didn't bet Oaks Day, so maybe that's why I don't recognize the name of the horse too much. But I bet if I did bet Oaks Day, or if it was every day, I would have liked this horse, even though he's 31-1. But it was just, I think, too much of a step up in class. So, I mean, first of all, he didn't run that as bad as it looks last time. I know it looks terrible, but these two were playing the 7, 2-3 wide, stumbled early. He got checked in the stretch or cut off in the stretch. He wasn't winning, but it really hurt him, made it look worse than it was.
00:17:23
Speaker
No offense to Esai Morales if that's his name, but you get a big jockey upgrade, Jose Ortiz. He had some class relief. I like the seven ah a good amount here. ah He has a little bit of speed, or she has a little bit of speed, so she doesn't come from way back.
00:17:35
Speaker
and I think this horse has a decent shot, but like Smexy too, and Just one other, then I'll throw it back to you. The 11 Pillar of Beauty he obviously has to go the distance, but I thought ran really well against a couple of decent sprinters last time. it Got shuffled a little bit on the turn, not too much trouble for the 11 Pillar of Beauty. Stretching out the dad sire, i should use proper terms, pretend i know what I'm talking about.
00:18:00
Speaker
Kara Karo is that? I wrote all over it. I can't remember, but came in second in the Peter Pan, second in the Travers in 2020, so the horse can run long. So Maybe this horse can go along. It's Martin Alvarado. So I'm thinking of using that horse as well. So I like Smexi. I like the 7, 2 of Flame. I like the 11, Pillar of Beauty. And I'll talk in a moment how ah I would bet it, but I'll throw it back to you if there's anyone you like or any reaction to what I said either way.
00:18:23
Speaker
Well, it's scary because I also like the 11. Now... a now June 5th, that was Belmont Stakes weekend, right?
00:18:34
Speaker
yeah I want to say that was the Friday, I'm pretty sure. Right, and remember, wasn't the turf like speed favoring for the most part? I honestly do not remember. Remember the race a little bit? I watched the replay, but I do remember the race because I was like, wow, 27 to 1, he closed, he ran great. Yeah, because there was another horse in one of the later races that also ran on that day. It was ah it was a turf sprint that – pratt was on he he won it like 15 to 1 gate to wire and it was like well that was smart because pratt was like okay i don't see a lot of speed in this race so he just took the horse out on top it it and he lasted so if that was the case and the fact that uh pillar beauty still closed into a speed favoring turf uh that moves him up uh as far as moves her up as far as i'm concerned
00:19:26
Speaker
I just want to give a shout out to the eight lovely gray. I don't care for here, but since it's owned by GoGo Gray Stable, which is Barstool, El Presidente, Dave Portnoy, maybe ah we might be able to get a sponsor one of these days. And maybe Dave might, death if we if we were nice to him and his horses. So um before we move on the other horse that I like,
00:19:53
Speaker
21 more in line, so I might as well mention the three, Alone Time, Cherry DeVoe. The horse did well at Churchill and Fairgrounds. First two times out, broke its maiden, had a really good brisnet turf figure. And then kind of like they were shooting, you know, they were asking a lot of the horse.
00:20:16
Speaker
And I guess after two tries, they they took some time off. reevaluated and i think they're bringing it back in in a spot where it could be um successful so at 20 to 1 why not throw the three alone time yeah and i just want to know you're rushing to move on but i want to talk about betting the race real quickly here So again, when I'm betting, I'm looking at the favorite or the favorites in general. This one's kind of spread out the betting a little bit or it should be.
00:20:48
Speaker
But I look and can I beat some of the favorites, whether it's the second favorite, second and third, whatever it is, top two. So like I said, I like Smeksy, the six, the favorite. I like Tua Flame, who's technically third choice, but co-second choice.
00:21:01
Speaker
But the 8 Lovely Gray four to one and the 10 Code five to one of the other shorter price words. And I'm going to try and beat both of them. ah You already talked about Lovely Gray a little bit, but I'm not sold. And, you know, nothing terribly wrong with ah with Code ah coming out of an allowance race, 1X stepping up into a restricted stakes here. But I just think some of the other horses are a little better. horse had a fairly easy lead last time, so ah gave it up. so i'm gonna And the horse who beat him, her phase gold, came back and ran like crap the other day.
00:21:32
Speaker
I think down at Churchill closing weekend, but regardless of that, I didn't really care for the 10 that much, although again, couldn't win has to be figures. So I'm on the six, seven, 11. So what am I going to do? Well, I kind of like the seven, the best out of that group. And he's not to be the shortest price. Like here's where it's tough to talk betting a days out.
00:21:49
Speaker
If Smexi a bigger price than two of flame, let's say two of flame, the seven goes off favored over Smexi. That might change my whole approach. Right. But let's just say the morning line is 100% accurate here. I would key to a flame. So what would I do?
00:22:04
Speaker
Well, there are a couple of long shots i won't talk long about. But you mentioned the three. who I like to. it was close She was close to that pace in the Appalachian, I said. That was a really sharp pace. i Really fierce. appears to maybe need the lead, and doesn't want to pass horses, but I'm willing at 20-1 to take a shot, save ground, and you know can get through. So the two is not terrible either. Ran against a good one over in Europe in Carras, her first out, a Breeders' Cup juvenile turf winner, Valentina.
00:22:32
Speaker
So Philly turf winner. So that horse, I think as a shot, I don't love the horse, but for 12 to one, I kind of liked that horse as well. So the two and three I want to add and the nine, I love giraffes. I think ran very well. I love Dave Rodman's call.
00:22:47
Speaker
I love giraffes by a long neck when she won a race, but I think she has a shot here too. So I'm basically going to key the seven and what am I going to do? Well, I'm going to put the seven with The two Paris cover, the three alone time, the six Mexi, the nine I love giraffes and the 11 pillar of beauty. So I do, let's say exact a seven with,
00:23:10
Speaker
two, three, six, nine, 11. That'll be for a dollar, $10 bet there. Then I bet extra maybe with the seven on top for a dollar. So that's like ah another $5. Then I cut down. i do seven with 611, the horse I like the most out of that group. And maybe bet a dollar, $2 exact box there.
00:23:30
Speaker
And that's how I approach it. So i key the seven where the seven has to come in in that group there. And as far as triples, I basically do the same thing. I key the seven with those horses. and that can be expensive because a 50 cent triple box, seven with those five horses is 30 bucks. So people might not want to do that.
00:23:45
Speaker
invest And then I, again, press a little more seven triples. 611 a little extra. If that's too expensive for people or they don't want to do that, um you know, you can maybe link two horses. So maybe you like the 11 as a second horse. So you can do 711 6 triple box. you can do triple box, And now that's 15 cents for 50 cents bets. Uh, and again, you don't necessarily pick my horses or your horses, even GQ, but just to give you an idea how to approach it. So if you like horses of similar prices, uh, it's just different ways of betting the race, but that's how I do it, uh, in this race, as far as the betting goes. So the seven would have to be in there for me to make any money here.
00:24:26
Speaker
Okay. Go on. Sorry. ah No, no problem. Uh, let's move along as we're, on track for 50 minutes. ah like Okay. So the third leg of the pick bag is, uh,
00:24:43
Speaker
Usually it's always been the feature on opening day. It's Saratoga, which is the sky at $200,000 Skylarville going six furlongs for two year old Phillies field of eight going with your morning line favorite being all the way on the outside. The eight luminous beauty at three to one. i I landed on the one horse, ah Voyager, who's the second choice at seven to two, solely due to her first start.
00:25:20
Speaker
And I happened to be watching the Churchill Downs feed that day. and this horse opened up like in the or she opened up in the wagering as if she was like flight line, I guess.
00:25:37
Speaker
it It was nuts. One to five for a first time starter, you know. I think everybody, they bet her like the race had already been run.
00:25:47
Speaker
The only problem was when they sprung the gate, she had little issue either getting out of the gate or went sideways or whatever. It says step slow in rank. She made a huge move just to get second. And and the horse that won, I think, turned out to be the second choice. But anyway...
00:26:08
Speaker
$300,000 purchase trained by Mark Cassie. um They obviously feel they have the goods here in Voyager, and that's why she lands here after failing to to bring it home as she went off the four to five in in that race.
00:26:30
Speaker
the the thing that surprised me, not surprised me, but kind of stands out about each and every one of these Phillies who won their first time out was that they were well-meant outside of the two horse who probably only went off at, uh, five to one because, uh, she's trained by a 7% trainer who nobody knows Abraham Gordia. Uh,
00:26:57
Speaker
So, you know, flip a coin or I'll leave it up to you, Eric, because you're the one who checks the replays of these. So did you see anything get interesting? Actually, no. um Usually i love these races, two-year-olds where they've only had one or two starts because people go with the speed figures so much and they change so much from race to race that um you can really get an advantage over people, I feel. But in this – oh, in this one, sorry. almost killed the cat. i mean I didn't know out there, PETA.
00:27:28
Speaker
I swear. Yeah. In this one, though, I don't know. I mean, I want to like the one like you, and I kind of do, but seveneth two Oh, my. I was hoping to get um not much bigger, but like 6-1 maybe. Then I would really like the one horse.
00:27:43
Speaker
The winner of that race, you said, was the second choice, 8-5, and easily. This one had no chance catch, but the race was pretty slow, so I don't know. I kind of like the one Voyager, but not at seventy two The eight horse, Luminous Beauty, is the Morningline favorite, but again, not a heavy favorite here.
00:27:58
Speaker
Her last race was up at Saratoga on that Thursday where speed dominated and just went to the front and dominated on the front. So like, to me, that race has a really dressed up. The only thing is I loved her first race.
00:28:12
Speaker
So I wish I bet that Thursday. I'm sure I would have had her at four to one. don't imagine I wouldn't have, but I love that first race. If I didn't like her first race, then I would just toss this horse off the last race and say, oh she just won because of speed. But Because of that first race, I can't do that. So I kind of like Yate, but it's a short price.
00:28:29
Speaker
You mentioned the two ran really well. It was like dominant. i don't know who she beat, though. Although Horace came in second ah behind her, wound up winning next time out.
00:28:40
Speaker
Yeah, but that's deceiving. I mean, when did that horse win? I'm going actually look as I'm talking. over but No, I'm doing the same. Okay. Or you can do it since you have the technology. Yeah, the horse came back to put a 55 buyer up in her third start, winning a maiden special with golf stream in June against probably not the greatest field. So, I mean, I don't know. Listen, none of them have...
00:29:03
Speaker
necessarily beaten a lot except for the eight luminous beauty who beat uh oh actually lost to um do you pronounce that the first race uh puret who came back to win the debutante and um at churchill so the eight horse beat or came in second to a really good one or what looks like a good one so anyway getting back the the two looks like she has a good shot i mean the five had tons of trouble in the stretch was getting a perfect trip in the mud off the turf and then got stuck on the rail i thought might go down but ended up staying on her feet and and finishing and got the win alone. She was being outfinished at the end. So, I mean, I don't know what to do with the five, Washington, because you can argue, oh got you know terrible stretch traffic. But first of all, it off the turf race.
00:29:44
Speaker
So against Horses, it really weren't meant for the turf. It was slop, which, you know, this is a fast track on Friday it's going to be. So who knows how the horse will handle the fast track. And then other than the trouble, had a perfect trip, got outfinished. So I don't know what the five... Again, this is a race where I really don't know. I'm not betting this race. If the one was a big price or like six to one, I would key the one or bet the one to win even.
00:30:03
Speaker
But with these odds, this is not a race I'm going to bet. I don't dislike the favorites. I don't love the favorites. So I'm sitting this one out. As far as the pick five goes, you know I said I'd like to go four deep in the first leg if I could.
00:30:15
Speaker
In the second leg, which was race eight, I'm probably only going to go three deep with the six, seven, eleven. If you remember from the prior race we discussed, love to go deeper. and If I do a pick five here, if I better pick five, I'd like to have the one, two, eight, maybe the five. But now I'm talking about going three to four deep in. the first three legs. So it's not looking too good for a pick five for me. Uh, but I'll get back to that as we, uh, finish up soon. So again, I know I didn't help a lot of people here, but not a race. i would bet I would lean one eight and then the two, but I wouldn't want to bet them with these eyes. So it's definitely not a race. I'm betting. gequi We're, we're kind of aligning. This is scary because we never used to do that, but no yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm on a one, two, eight. So, um,
00:31:01
Speaker
right, so down to the fourth leg of the um Saratoga opening day late pick five. Got a model 16th on the turf, the Saranac steaks for three-year-olds, which have not won a sweepstake.
00:31:16
Speaker
And we have a field of 12. well We're not talking about the MTO on the outside 13. So if it's ah still on the grass, which I don't anticipate it being washed off Friday, um we're going with 12 horses with your morning line favorite being, I believe it's the 11 Arizona Territory.
00:31:44
Speaker
I, for some reason, am trying to beat this one. How about you? Yeah, I mean, listen, in general, betting against favorites is the way to go. Not all the time, obviously, but that's how you can make money. I was at Parks yesterday. don't want to admit it, but I was at Parks yesterday. I was in Philly for the Pirates were in town, for those who are not pirate fan. And have some connections there so i was uh in pittsburgh i'm sorry in philadelphia and went to parks and you know bet only a few races i was losing the first three or four races and it was race seven i think and paco was on the favor didn't like the favorite so i boxed four horses to beat the favorite i pressed with like three of them in a box and then i keep another one anyway i ended up hitting for a nice amount so walked out a winner of parks just because I beat one favorite. tried to beat like four of them and was unsuccessful. With the one I beat, I ended up making, you know, a few hundred bucks for the day. So generally I would try and beat the favorite. So, you we, we spew our opinions on here.
00:32:44
Speaker
But if you're not sold on the 11 Arizona territory, like GQ is not sold perhaps, bet against them. ah That's the best strategy to do. The problem for me is I'm not against the 11 Arizona territory. I think he's a very nice horse.
00:33:01
Speaker
I just don't want to bet him at five to two. And you know usually, like I said, if I'm going a bet a race, I like where I don't like the favorite and I want to bet against them, or I love the favorite and I want to bet against the second favorite. And I just don't see that necessarily here, but there is a horse I like here that I'm going to key.
00:33:15
Speaker
So I will probably bet this race. Um, And I don't love my strategy per se, but the horse going to key is number seven horse, which I'm thinking you might like because it's Johnny V and you said you like Johnny V today. The horse's name, I can't stand Glavin.
00:33:33
Speaker
Met fans listening to this are going to very upset. Actually, hope lot of Met fans are at Saratoga because they will definitely not met a horse named Glavin. Didn't go well at the end of Tom Glavin's career when the Mets signed him. So...
00:33:46
Speaker
That's the worst I like. He um hopped at the start last race, then got squeezed back. I thought ran very well considering against what I thought was a tough field. It's funny. The late Chuck Simon used to rip on the Pennine Ridge. i don't know if you remember that, but that was like the race that he would always say, this horse was not even very good. when are we naming a race after him? So when it came to the Pennine Ridge this year, I looked at the race and I don't think I was betting that day, but I looked and i was like, wow,
00:34:16
Speaker
I thought it was a pretty strong field for for the Pennine Ridge for a grade three. So this horse was in that race. West End kid looks like a really good one. So I thought it went into trouble early, ran really well. And the race before that, coming off a layoff, Glavin, in May, I thought it ran really well. just it was much the best. I mean, again, i don't know how great field it was, maiden, special weight. But I thought it ran really well. It ran really well last time, went trouble early. So i'm ah I'm a fan of Glavin's here, not the pitcher, but the horse. So I'm going to keep the seven Glavin and some bets. And I'll talk about one or two others and what I would do with him in a moment. But i don't want hog the spotlight. So back to you.
00:34:52
Speaker
Oh, no. right. So i landed it on the one see you in Canada. we're We're landing on all these countries that are still alive in the World Cup. so But anyway, CU in Canada. The reason why only you know one is her his sole start wasn't supposed to at 16 1, but I looked over the pace of this race, and now... There isn't anybody who really wants to go to the lead. So from the rail, I would think Jose taking over the mount, um probably going to see how far this horse can run.
00:35:33
Speaker
And you have that look on your face that says, Ed, it's going to crap. Well, listen, I don't have the strongest opinion, so um I'm against the one personally. i agree with your logic, though. like He looks like, seeing you Canada, of the one, looks like in speed here in race 10.
00:35:53
Speaker
I just have trouble betting low in speed when I don't really care for a horse or I think it's going shorter price than it should be. So could the one wire the field? And if you think that out there, go for it. I mean, how often do we see that in New York? and One horse goes and no one goes with him and he wires the field. I'm just not going to take that approach with this race. So I'm actually going to leave out the one and that's going to hopefully get me some value because the one between being low in speed, Joe Sharp will take low money and Jose Ortiz will take money.
00:36:19
Speaker
I'm hoping that horse will be nine to two or even shorter and that'll be good for me unless the horse wins and I'm losing anyway, but hopefully horse takes some money. again um the The other one I like eight to one morning line to four Teddy's rocket.
00:36:35
Speaker
Broke his maiden last August at Saratoga on this turf course. Came back with ah a decent run in the grade one summer up at Woodbine.
00:36:48
Speaker
Took some time off, came back, and really stumbled at the start. Had no rally. Was kind of uninspiring. Hence the 8-1 morning line here.
00:37:02
Speaker
And the only other one I'll mention is the 12-horse at 15-1 morning line. a New York bred who wound up breaking his maiden a again against Open Company. What I like here is the fact that, all right, this is a race for three-year-olds, and his last two races, which are the only races you know after he turned three,
00:37:29
Speaker
ah were against three-year-olds and up. So maybe the fact that he's already won against Open, i know sometimes New York breads ah get pigeonholed into only being able to compete against New York breads, but that win at Aqueduct in an Open maiden,
00:37:51
Speaker
odd is the best a brisnet turf figure that is in this field. And I live and die by brisnet turf figures.
00:38:04
Speaker
You're counterpoint. Mostly not. You're ignorant slut. so So I do like the four, Teddy's Rocket.
00:38:16
Speaker
In that summer states, it would mine. The horse had ah some trouble. um And then last race, coming off the layoff, had the bad start, stumbled pretty bad at the start. Yeah, had a good trim after that, didn't run much, but I can forgive that last race. So yeah, I do like the four Teddy's Rocket, especially the horse is like eight to one, you know four to one, three to one, you don't love, but four to one, yeah.
00:38:39
Speaker
The problem is Arizona territory for me. This is what's causing me to be reluctant about bending the race. The horse has been good. I mean, the horse has run really well, visually impressive. Stepping up in class, you know i don't know, the outside post is probably not great, but I'm sure that's not going to kill the horse necessarily. So you know you got pride. He'll work on a trip. but I kind of like the horse, but it's a little too short for me. So I haven't decided if I want to use that horse at all, but I'm going to key the seven here. I'm going to use a seven with the four who you mentioned, the 12 who you mentioned. I won't repeat everything about him, but the horse is slowly progressing and yeah, stepping up in class.
00:39:13
Speaker
but it was a decent field last time with all the horses. So I'm going use the seven with the four, the 12, a bomb, the eight print I'm going to throw in. I thought last race, there was no pace on. Now that can happen again, but I thought there was no pace on the horse closed, which I was very, um very impressed with. So yeah, this horse was not much of a match for the 11 horse the time before that, but maybe this horse is getting better. I know the 11 is a lightly race one, but the eight print,
00:39:41
Speaker
It's getting better, I think, too. So do I love the horse? No, but at 20 to 1, I'm going to throw the horse in. So I'm going to use the 8-12. So basically, going to 7 with 4-8-12. And I really want to use the 11 also if it's not too short a price. So I'm kind of 7 with the 4-12.
00:39:56
Speaker
we
00:39:59
Speaker
So what I'll do is I'll key the 7, kind of similar to my other bets, key the 7 with those four horses, maybe the 7 with the the four extra because I like the four a little more, and same thing with the triples as well. As far as the pink 5 goes, I've kind of been – All over there, meaning i haven't had a strong opinion per se. I mean, I've had a strong opinion as far as like I only need three or four of them, but I haven't really been narrowing down to less than three horses. So this is where if I bet the pick five, I'll probably take a stand and single the seven Glavin.
00:40:28
Speaker
um That's most likely what I'll do if I bet a pick five. So I'm like anywhere from two to four deep in the first leg. I'm roughly three or four deep in the next leg. Same thing in the leg after that. And here is where I'm just going to go one deep if I bet a pick five with Glavin.
00:40:43
Speaker
Okay. I'm good. All right. Let's go. Ready ready to end it with race 11, another turf, inner turf, going to model 16th, optional claiming for 45,000. I'm going to spare you reading the entire condition, but it's for horses who have competed in a claiming event of 55,000 or
00:41:12
Speaker
And this is where you can really maybe find value or whatever. When I kind of look for a horse that what made this horse qualify to start in this race?
00:41:28
Speaker
um And I just circle all of them. And. You're going to laugh me off of this podcast, but I'm going to take a leap of faith with the one horse, Yow Majesty at 30 1 Morning line And let me just say why good it goes against every handicapping ah theory. i mean, this horse has never beat winners, nine winner two. um As you know, one of my famous things is I hate betting three year olds the first time they run against older, which she is.
00:42:05
Speaker
But i go back to the horses. She's run seven times in her lifetime. She started at Colonial running on turf. She didn't do a darn thing. the the the speed figures were horrible.
00:42:21
Speaker
But... she's turf bread. and so she then changed owners or trainers went to Michael Gorham, which is is a step up obviously from a trainer who was over 40 at colonial or or previous year.
00:42:40
Speaker
And now all of a sudden after facing better competition on the dirt, albeit at Delaware and Laurel, finds her way back on the turf. And I'm thinking maybe when she was running at it as a two-year-old, she just wasn't ready for the races. so and and the fact that competed, again, everybody's going to say, well, Laurel and Delaware is a step down.
00:43:10
Speaker
But you know that last race in the slop got carried out in the first turn. I don't care. So if, if you're willing to add a horse to your pick five or whatever,
00:43:25
Speaker
I'm saying, why is Gorham bringing this horse up from Delaware? Does he want to have dinner at um pick your, pick your Saratoga restaurant? You know, is he honkering for Hattie's chicken fried chicken or whatever? But I, I,
00:43:45
Speaker
but and And the reason why i went searching for a price like this is because I'm not convinced that the five, the two to one favorite um is the winner on paper should be the winner, but the speed figures keep digressing and went off at,
00:44:08
Speaker
you know $1.11 last time and and didn't get up. Maybe had excuse. I'll let you so tell that story. But, you know, for the leap of faith, I'll um use the one along with the five. And like the three as well. Johnny V, that's why. So um one one, three, five in the last race for me. And I'll let you finish it off.
00:44:36
Speaker
All right. So you told me for five minutes about how you don't see the five here and then you pick the five. That's good. No, i'm I'm saying that ah I couldn't pick the horse, you know, confidently ah on top because I looked at everybody else who seemed logical and I found excuses why they they couldn't win. So the lesser of all the evils, let's say. well Well, you know, again, as far as betting goes, if I was unsure about the five at all, like you seem to be,
00:45:13
Speaker
I would just find horses to beat him if I could. Um, so if I felt that way, i would, you know if you'd like the one in three, I would bet the one in three and then any other, you know, and however many you had in one more, two more, three more, just see how many you can get to beat the five. And, you know, if it's four horses, I would box four horses, especially if they're all price, you know, if it's like the six and the other shorter price, maybe not, but, uh, the nine or 10 or something like that.
00:45:38
Speaker
Uh, but if you can add some prices, I would, I would definitely do that. Um, You know last year when we talked about race 10, that 11 horse, that Chad Brown horse at five to two, and I said I was going to key the seven, Glavin. Like ideally, I would just toss that 11 and i would box all the other four horses I was going to use for prices so I can get them no matter what comes in and then bet extra with the seven. But I didn't want to toss the 11. I was afraid, I guess. I don't know because I'm not against the 11. I actually think the 11 likely going to win that race. In this one,
00:46:08
Speaker
and There's just not much in this race. There's really only two horses I see with a... I don't to say a shot to beat the five. First of all, you mentioned the five divide dividend recap. A horse had some trouble last time. Was squeezed back at the start a few lands and was kind of fighting the jockey the whole way on the backstretch. Had a very wide trip. Like the horse ran relatively well considering the trip. You know, that that trip, if that race, if he gets a good trip, oh, she gets a good trip, would probably win this one if that makes sense with Upgreen.
00:46:39
Speaker
I like the three-saw princess who you liked. as well, you mentioned. on This is where two back came off a layoff I thought ran very well, was three wide throughout. There wasn't much pace, you know really didn't have much of a chance to close. So I thought that was a better than looks race. And then if you look, goes into, remember there's a starter allowance, optional claimer, went into a first level allowance race, which is considerably tougher than this race. You can see by the odds was, I can't read, but 30 to one, I think it says. yeah It's had no shot.
00:47:12
Speaker
I had a slightly slow start hopping a little bit at the start. ah So that wasn't great. And it was actually running on a little bit late. Yeah, it doesn't look like it, but was doing some running at the end against better horses.
00:47:23
Speaker
And it's not like the race fell apart or anything. So um I thought Radden. a little better looks last time, or really just tossed the last race, and I really liked the race before. So I like Salt Princess a lot here in the three. I saw a couple other people who I respect at least one or two of them, and they're picking this horse, so I think this is going the wise guy horse. So I'm a little worried about that, that everyone's going on the three, and she's going to go off like four to one as the alternative to the five. But um I like the three here, considerable amount. The only other horse I really would contemplate, I think... Before you move off the three...
00:47:56
Speaker
playing Playing devil's advocate, or you tell me, does it worry that they would put this three-year-old for the tag
00:48:07
Speaker
after you know competing you know in for an optional $100,000 claimer in 55? This is a first, well, going back to its first, back last September, it was in for $75,000.
00:48:21
Speaker
when i ran second first time on the turf. Why would they risk losing her? For a couple reasons. First of all, they paid 50 grand for the horse. The horse has made 116,000 already.
00:48:35
Speaker
So even with all the training expenses and all, they made a little money with her. She proved that she probably can't compete at the allowance level. It's probably a little too tough for So they can keep running her at that level, paying $5,000 a month to their trainer or whatever they're paying. Maybe David, well, it's probably about $5,000, $6,000 even, I don't know, these days in New York. but um And running the horse once a month in an allowance race coming in sixth and and earning a couple thousand bucks and and losing money. Or they can say, hey, we made money with the horse.
00:49:02
Speaker
We can put her in a spot where she can win the purse, which is what, $78,000 purse. And... Maybe we'll get 45,000 for two, and if they don't, and you know we can throw in starter allowances and can protect her. So to me, I have no problem with this spot here. I don't look at that as much maybe as some handicappers anyway, but i have no problem with this spot here.
00:49:22
Speaker
Hopefully that yeah makes sense. I just wanted your opinion on it. So mean, do you want me to just finish up or you want to continue? you finish up. The only other horse have any interest in is spying the two, and i don't really love this horse from Brandon Walsh, but at least – The turf race last time against probably similar, right? 50,000 starter, this 55,000 starter was coming off a layoff. Never really got a chance to save ground.
00:49:46
Speaker
At least ran... I don't know, decent is the right word, but didn't embarrass herself. I mean, so many of these looked overmatched to me on paper. I know the 12, the 10 horse broke all the rules.
00:49:59
Speaker
It's okay, speed figure wise, but i don't know the distance. ah Came up a little short, with a little of trouble um in her one long race at the Meadowlands, but the Meadowlands is pretty cheap racing there for for this area. So that was a really cheap race and couldn't even finish the job going a mile. And this a horse you might have been talking about where- Yeah, she's the one I alluded to. Yeah, where you know she just went to the front. I don't remember what it was speed favoring. I trust you that it was, and people out there probably know better than me. But you know one with an easy lead, i don't know. Just to me, it was pressed a little bit, but to me, it was the worst I would want to bet against. So I'm not going bet against a favorite, the five, because I think she's tough.
00:50:37
Speaker
I can see her not winning. It's not like she's a win machine, but I kind of like the five, maybe a little short price though, but I'm to try and bet against a 10 and that's going to be my strategy here. Also the nine is taking maybe a little money. I'm going against a nine and I'm not going use much. I'm just using some combination of two, three, five here. It's not big prices per se, but hopefully the two and three are good price, but I'm going to key the three. So what we'll probably do is I'd probably box all three of them because assuming the morning line is right. If the three goes down like four to one, I got to change my strategy. But otherwise, two spying, three saw princess five, dividend recap. I'll probably box them and then I'll bet extra three with two five and then extra three five on boxing those, you know, not just straight in that way. Maybe extra straight with the three on top. I'm not sure. of but That's what I do. And as far as the pick five goes, it really depends on the other leg since I'm
00:51:24
Speaker
hopefully singling Glavin at around four to one. And I think I'm leaving out a couple of chalks here and there. If I do bet it, um i would go at most two, three, five. And if I had to cut it down to just three, five or just three, um i would, but that's kind of where I'm looking at with this race. So, you know, this whole sequence, I'm not like in love with any race per se, but I can definitely make a few bets. It's none of them are going to be huge bets by me, but you know, a few bets, hopefully a few opinions there help some people out.
00:51:53
Speaker
Sounds good. Well, I mean, good to be back. Good, good first time back off the layoff. Uh, we, we promise we'll improve second time and maybe, uh, throw a winner third time. Yeah. We'll get our audio better. We'll get our, uh, everything better production, better and, uh, analysis maybe even better as well, but appreciate y'all listening out there. Any final words, GQ or was that it?
00:52:17
Speaker
yeah Have a great, uh, 4th of July weekend. Um, America 250.
00:52:25
Speaker
Happy 4th. Thanks for listening. Ta-ta.