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Saratoga Late Pick 5 with David Aragona for Saturday, August 1st
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David Aragona of the DRF joins GQ and Eric to analyze the late pick 5 races from Saratoga for Saturday, August 1st.
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Introduction
00:00:00
Speaker
Hello and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill, and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
00:00:14
Speaker
Hey, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the king of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ, how be you?
00:00:24
Speaker
I'm doing great today, Eric. Once again, thank you. I'm being sarcastic for having to record this on a Tuesday afternoon, but I understand since you're leaving for Saratoga. um But I'm ah very pleased that we have our first guest here.
00:00:42
Speaker
of the season of the re reboot of the better bitt better betting podcast mr David of the Daily Racing Forum and Morning Line Maker for all Naira tracks. David, welcome again to our podcast. You were with us in the past.
00:01:01
Speaker
Yeah, I think I joined you once for the first incarnation of Better Betting. So ah happy to come back on board. You know, ran into Eric recently at Monmouth and, you know, we were talking a little bit and you mentioned you guys were starting it, you guys. And yeah, happy happy to come back on for so some Saratoga.
00:01:17
Speaker
That's awesome. Well, i Before we get into the late pick five for Saturday, August 1st at Saratoga, we have this little segment called the Good Bed Fugly. We just quickly go over some things either from last week's podcast or in racing. So we'll start off with the good that last week Eric suggested single did hit in the Vanderbilt.
00:01:42
Speaker
The horse's name was built and I'm He basically ran off the screen. So congratulations, Eric, for that suggestion. The bad was the previous race in the first leg. We lost the head bob to um crossover capital was the horse's name.
Kentucky Downs Betting Changes Discussion
00:02:01
Speaker
Pratt, Chad, Runner. We had, unfortunately, lobbyists, the four horse. And the Fugly is just within the last 24 hours, the knowledge that Kentucky Downs is raising their minimum from $2 to $5 on win play, show,
00:02:18
Speaker
exact the doubles and keeping a low takeout on the horizontals, to pick fours and pick fives. And David, I know you had some thoughts about that. If you wish to share those once again. Look, I don't mind some tracks trying new things and new ideas. I think we need some innovation in the wagering space. Um,
00:02:44
Speaker
You know, higher minimums, I think, are great for certain types of bets. And frankly, I don't mind $5 minimum even in the win play show pool. I know some people have had a really negative reaction to that.
00:02:55
Speaker
like ah In terms of like inflation over the years, a $5 bet now is the same as a $2 bet was 20 years ago. So does it really make that much of a difference? I don't care so much about the higher minimums. um what what What kind of irks me is that it's become so in vogue to cut the takeout on these complex pick five, pick four bets.
00:03:17
Speaker
they're you know They're doing it the pick three as well now. I think you kind of have to make the pick three a 15% takeout if you want to make one of them a 15% takeout, which is what they try to do when they couple that with these higher minimum wagers. That's all fine. um I just don't understand why we only cut the takeout on these complex wagers, where it's as if the industry is trying to push people into playing these types of wagers more.
00:03:39
Speaker
which is fine. I mean, if you excel at those types of waiters, that's great. a lot of the existing customers do. But I mean, the racing industry talks about how we have this real problem with acquiring new customers. And the best way to do that is to make the entry level bets the most inviting. And it just seems like there's not really interest in doing that.
00:03:57
Speaker
Shouldn't the win play show pools be the lowest takeout bets at every track across the board? um And it feels like that's the case almost nowhere in the country. So that part of it just doesn't make any sense to me. um But look, it's it's nice a track trying something new. So I'll just leave it at I have mixed feelings about the Kentucky Downs announcement. OK, fair enough. Thanks for sharing those thoughts with us.
00:04:20
Speaker
Eric, do you have anything whether on on any topic before we get on to the pick five?
Preview of Saratoga Races and Morning Lines
00:04:28
Speaker
No, I think we're ready to go to the pick five. I think people want to hear David's opinions and ideas about the races. So why don't we jump into it?
00:04:34
Speaker
Yep. And just an FYI for those who are listening on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, or even Saturday morning. Again, we're recording this on Tuesday. David has not released his official morning lines. He might have some thoughts on it, so don't hold us to what he says on a Tuesday afternoon. With that being said, we'll start off the late pick five on Saturday at Saratoga.
00:04:59
Speaker
Starts in race eight. It is a five-and-a-half furlong turf event for Phillies and Mayors. an allowance one hundred twenty thousand nonwares of One other then, 14 have been entered for the turf. Only 10 can go to the post. There's two MTOs.
00:05:17
Speaker
The weather looks okay Saturday, as long as the grass doesn't get too wet late in the week, which unfortunately is the forecast. So um I'm going to throw it over to David to give us some thoughts about race eight.
00:05:32
Speaker
Yeah, this is a tough one. I was letting you guys know ahead of time I still have to kind of put some of these races together. I've done the work on them. I need to sort of like play them out in my head to know exactly where I want to go. um i think some of the contenders jump out at you right away. um Those would be I think Lady Jancis, the two, and the five, Silsby. They're kind of the two horses I pegged as the morning line favorites. um On my line I'm working on right now, I've got Silsby at five to two, and Lady Jancis, seven to two, three to one. I was trying to get her down that low to make the math work, since it is Irad, and it seems like all his horses take more money than I think they will.
00:06:08
Speaker
um But look, they seem like two strong contenders. Silsby is probably the more reliable one because she's done it at or around this level before. She ran really well off the layoff last time, dueling through a fast pace and held on for second behind Pillar of Beauty, who came back and ran just fine in a stakes race. So Silsby feels like the reliable option in here. i was trying to gauge how much upside I thought the number two Lady Gensis really has because she showed talent as a two-year-old. That was a really fast-paced race that she debuted in at Keeneland, and she got tired at the end, but there were some good horses ahead of her that day, and she was just so much better than the competition that she faced when she came off the layoff at Churchill in June, got to the front end pretty easily, and just you know skipped away from that field.
00:06:52
Speaker
I do think it's a pretty big step up in class from that race to this one. But she does look like she's going to be the fastest of the fast early. She's probably going to be the speed. So um I don't know how you guys felt. i there was When I first did my pass of this race, there was no like long shot that was jumping out at me. The more I look, there's one horse at a price that I'm kind of interested in. I'm not sure if she's a top pick or just a horse I want to get in there somewhere. But I kind of felt like these two likely favorites, the two of the five, were pretty strong in here. How are you feeling?
00:07:23
Speaker
I'll jump in now, I guess. Yeah, we we were discussing the morning line right before you came on. So we were debating five and two also. So um I was very close to you. So I'm happy that you said what you said.
00:07:34
Speaker
um i yeah those two look like main contenders here. I'm curious the price source because I do like a price source here.
Potential Price Horses and Race Analysis
00:07:42
Speaker
I think a price horse, a horse I have about 10 to 1, and that's the 9 dub off.
00:07:47
Speaker
ah There's a horse coming off a layoff, and you know we'll see if the horse is ready to go, if she's ready to go. But partially because of the layoff, you're going to get a little bit of a price, partially because of Chris Elliott. and The ride I got last week from Chris Elliott where I would have won a lot of money. I'm still crying over. He was a one horse. think I know what race that is. I don't remember the name of the but the horse would have won by four lengths if she ever had a chance to run any time in the race. But anyway, I digress. I got over that one already.
00:08:14
Speaker
Not really. But anyway, so this horse, Greg Sacco is good off the layoff. The horse, both turf sprints, or at least the last two turf sprints, three back in the last race i have upgraded. Three back in October over at the Backward Duck course. Was in a duel with some long shots, but they faded pretty badly. And this horse held on pretty well at sharp pace. And then last time at Tampa,
00:08:36
Speaker
I thought the horse was cut off early out of the gate. And then Chase and ran down He was kind of loose on the lead. And that horse held second. So I thought it was pretty good to be able to run down a loose 8-1 there. So I thought in a price, i don't love the horse, but I thought in a price, the 9 horse. David, was that your price or is there someone else you were thinking of?
00:08:56
Speaker
Nope, you hit on the exact horse that I was going to go to, Duboff. For all the reasons you pointed out, Sacco being good off layoffs, you know, against the pace two back the last race, it feels like she's pretty good as a turf sprinter.
00:09:08
Speaker
She's going to have to work out a trip because she's a horse that wants to be a little bit forward, not a speed per se, but she's going to be stalking outside. And you do worry that maybe she gets hung three to four wide on the turn. That's the one worry with her from that post.
00:09:19
Speaker
ah but I did think she was kind of an interesting option because let's remember, this is a first level allowance race. And one of the things that kind of jumps out about Duboff is that she's a four-time winner. So she's moved up in class over time, but it feels like she's kind of earned her shot in this kind of race. So yeah, she was also the price horse that I was somewhat interested in. And I've got her 12 to one of my initial line. So it sounds like you'd be ah pretty satisfied to get that.
00:09:43
Speaker
Yes. I think I said 10 to 1 for me. So that's that's good. I just want to touch upon one or two other horses here. The three horse, only for now with Pratt, Clement. Personally, I have as as a third choice here. This is a horse who her first race, I thought she ran really well. She got that 79 buyer. I upgraded that main and special weight win. She got off to a horrible start. It was on her own. So, you know, maybe that's an issue.
00:10:06
Speaker
But then she came back last race. And I'm curious what you thought. I'm assuming, want to put you on the spot, but I'm assuming you're so prepared you watched that race. uh, the Laurel race, she was pulling a lot in between horses. I didn't think she really had anywhere to go, but then when she got free, she really didn't have anything. So I'm curious, how did you, or in general, even if not this horse, like how do you view a horse who, you know, really doesn't have the greatest of trip, but then gets free and doesn't really have anything. Do you think that took it out of her? What was going on during the race? Or maybe the horse didn't run all that well.
00:10:38
Speaker
Yeah, I think your read on her last race is spot on. ah She was obviously a little rank early and keen. i i don't know. Watching a lot of the races from Maryland, it feels like every Jorge Ruiz ride is just like striking a horse. Time out, time out, David.
00:10:52
Speaker
You just killed GQ. For 20 years, GQ is telling me Jorge Ruiz is the best turf rider, other than Horacio Caramano, Special K, the best turf rider in the Mid-Atlantic.
00:11:03
Speaker
But I digress. GQ, you okay? We have to get... I'm already out. Okay, good. Sorry, David. Go ahead. You can continue. there There are two rider switches away from him in this race that I was intrigued by. I'll just leave it at that. But yeah, she got out into the clear, and I agree. She just didn't really have much, and she kind of felt like maybe um there was going to be more there to give, and there wasn't. So it made me go back to her debut race and kind of reassess it. And I agree within the context of the race she ran well. But you go back and look at that field and some of the subsequent performances, and it kind of makes you wonder if that 79 buyer isn't really predictive because there have been some horses that have run back. Even the runner-up who came back and finished second in her next start, mean, she regressed by five points. It felt in real time watching the race like she improved and she actually took a step back on the speed figure scale. So I wonder if the numbers assigned to that debut race are just a little too high and it's tough. I think there's like a sample size of two in all these aqueduct turf races because they only run like the maximum of two on each course. So yeah, I had some doubts about her overall quality.
00:12:06
Speaker
And one other horse I want to touch on before we move on, the Ford Just Add Water. Other tours I think will be a little bit of a price. I mean, I have 12 to one. I don't want to put you on the spot what you have right now because I know you're not finalized. These are words who I really liked last year. Now, going against New York Reds, but I upgraded both for races at Saratoga.
00:12:23
Speaker
um I won't bore people too much, but you know three back got off to a very slow start. And I thought the two back, the August 15th race, really lacked room most of the race. Came back off the layoff in April.
00:12:35
Speaker
And I didn't think ran that well. Maybe I read it wrong. Didn't really improve from a speed figure standpoint. Do you look at a horse like that? Like maybe they just needed the race and now she'll improve. Or are you like, yeah, the horse just didn't improve and I'm not too sold on her for this spot.
00:12:52
Speaker
I don't know why she's running in this race because she's in New York bred with her second level New York bred condition available and she's running in this open race. um Some might say that's a sign of confidence.
00:13:03
Speaker
I just don't see how she's competitive with this field based on her prior form. I think even her wins last year came against such weaker competition, but the the form of the horses who were second and third in that race make them like 50 to one shots in here. So, um, She wasn't for me. You know, for me, like the wild cards in this race are the one big earn who's got some decent races against Maryland Bread Company. But I don't know, looking through some of the fields, she looks a little better on paper than when I watch some of the replays. And, you know who knows what to do with the Australian shipper for Mark Cassie. He's missed a I've watched some of her races. Doesn't seem like she's got a set running style. So who knows what but to do with her. But I typically you know just want to wait and see what those types.
00:13:39
Speaker
Yeah, i watched Heat Missiles race two back or last sprint, I guess. I think that's six a half for long as I can't read too well. I can't see too well. can read fine. But when you can't read you see it, it's hard to read it. I had an easy lead. Kind of coughed it up. I have no idea what she's running against. But maybe Tim Clark is the Jorge Ruiz of Australian. She threw for big upgrade with Jose, but we'll find out. As far as betting the race, I'm not goingnna put you on the spot because it's way out. I mean, feel free to say anything. But for me...
00:14:05
Speaker
If Duboff is around double-digit odds, right, and close to 10 to 1 or higher, I would just key Duboff in my best because I don't see too many long shots. I like the four a little bit as well, and and she might be a price.
00:14:17
Speaker
ah But for the most part, I'd i' key Duboff. So I'd do exactos where it's like nine with a few other horses that mostly we talked about, and triples as well where it's nine with a few other horses. And if the nine doesn't come the top two or three, I probably will not be cashing Duboff. this race. If the nine is too short and the four is a really big price, I can see switching and keying the four in that spot. But it would be one of those two and probably the nine for me. And then after the race, he'll hear me on Twitter saying, how can I bet Chris Elliott? But that's another story for another day.
00:14:44
Speaker
Any final thoughts, GQ or David, before we move on? Yeah, i I just want to ask David a morning line question. What do you do with a horse like Heat Missile coming from Australia? You know, is it just, know you know, you kind of give it the eight to one morning line like a first time starter that you don't have workout reports for?
00:15:06
Speaker
Yeah, I didn't know what to do with her. I've got her at 10 to 1 right now, really only because Jose Ortiz is riding and you know he's going to take some money. But she was a tough one to peg. I kind of waited to see how many points I had left and just slotted her in at that price. Sounds good. um The thing that I liked about the three, only for now since you guys ah had brought her up, I mean, the The Philly who won that Stormy Blues ran fourth Cypher in the Coronation Cup last week, and um the second-place finisher a sprint at Monmouth, a stakes turf. So there there may be some quality there since she's she's running one other than. So that's who I was kind of leaning on.
00:15:54
Speaker
um We'll move on to race nine, second leg of Saturday's Saratoga Lake pick five. It's a mom of 16th on the inner turf, the grade three Lake George for three-year-old fillies. Nine have been entered. um Where did you land, ah David, as far as morning lines?
00:16:16
Speaker
I'm actually kind of curious to know if you guys had thoughts about this one, because I was having a tough time separating which of the three likely favorites was actually going to be the post-time favorite. ah Yeah, let me hear your thoughts. i'll I'll go first, because it was funny. My comment was going to be, i don't envy you trying to find the favorite.
00:16:35
Speaker
I kind of went with the Nine Lion Lake as the favorite. Yeah. The next one might be a little longer longer price, but because of the connections and the way the horse has been bet, the eight horse, I had second, Deep Learning, followed by the six, Amber Glenn, and then the four, Time to Dream.
00:16:58
Speaker
Eric? ah Not too far. I mean, those are the four whores, I think. I have the nine Lion Link at five to two. The six Amber Glenn, three to one. i put the four Time to Dream at nine to two and eight Deep Learning, five to one. Maybe I'm too high because it's Brown and Pratt there, but Yeah, that's what I have there. And I know personally in this race, I have two singles in this sequence. So I'm actually excited for this sequence. And hopefully they're not the the favorites going off. But ah David, as far as you were concerned, we're we're morning line wise, were you in tune with either of us at all? Or are you still thinking about it, I guess? We're we're pretty close. And the fact that we're pretty close gives me a little bit of confidence. um I had it slightly different from Eric. um I have Amber Glenn as the five to two morning line favorite.
Lake George Race Favorites Discussion
00:17:43
Speaker
And I've got Lion Lake at three to one and Deep Learning seven to two, Time to Dream five six to one. That's where I've got it right now. um But obviously, you know i'll I'll massage this as I yeah you think about it a little more. But yeah, for me, it was a tough call between the six and nine ultimately.
00:18:00
Speaker
you I read that's where people land. So it kind of pushed me over the line with that one. But from your facial expression, Eric, I'm guessing you like Amber Glenn in this race. Yeah. You know, it's funny because, you know, my friends know um GQ, we have like a group chat, a bunch of us and that,
00:18:17
Speaker
more often than we should probably. And the four horse, whenever I like a horse or, you know, I have a single or something like that. I'm always like, I hope David likes this horse. And if you don't have her in your top four, then I'm like, oh crap. And I have to reassess. But, um, yeah, I'm, I'm all over Amber Glenn here and all over. I mean, five to two, but, um, figured three to one, five to two range. But, uh, as far as a single is fine in a pick five.
00:18:39
Speaker
Um, but yeah, no, I'm, I'm on Amber Glenn. I'd love to race two back. Uh, she was coming off of a layoff. She got cut off at the start. Um, I didn't think that i know she saved ground, but there really wasn't much pace in the race. She might have needed that race. And then, you know last race, you can argue she just had an easy lead. And that's why she put up a big figure and won easily. But I don't want to hold it against her that she did that. So to me, I like Amber Glenn. It is a tough race. I think the other favorites all have legitimate cases to be made. But I'll throw to you, David. People want to hear you more than me. ah What's your thoughts on Amber Glenn and then anyone else in this spot?
00:19:11
Speaker
Yeah, I think we're leaning in a similar direction. um i will all say this. I think Amber Glenn is the best horse in this race. um And it might not be so apparent when you just look at her on paper, but I think when you start to dig into the races a little more, as you were alluding to, you kind of see some of the hidden quality there because she ran so much better than it looks in that Keeneland race too back before. slow pace. I mean, ah people, if you're not familiar with the winner of that race, Luster, ah her subsequent performances suggest that that race was so much better than the speed figure it got. you know She's gone from a 76 buyer that day to an 84, 91, 97 in her most recent start. I think she won the Woodbine Oaks recently.
00:19:50
Speaker
Um, so that's a really nice horse and several horses from that race have come back to suggest that the speed figure is way too low held down because of the slow pace. And Amber Glenn was the one that was closing into the pace and she had trouble in the running. Um, I agree. Her last race was great, you know perfect, perfect trip or not. mean, she really kicked for home impressively. Um, my one reservation with Amber Glenn, uh, is that,
00:20:12
Speaker
In each of her last two races, and really all of her races when you watch them, she's not a good gate horse. She breaks at least a half step slowly every time. And when you're drawn right in the middle of the starting gate, you do wonder a little bit if she breaks a half step slowly, if the door gets shut on her, because she doesn't look like a horse that that's that comfortable racing behind horses with cover. It looks like she wants to be out in the clear, and being in front obviously is ideal for her. So I worry a little bit about the trip with her. I think she's the best horse, but ah I won't be surprised if she breaks a half step slow, gets cut off, and then suddenly, know, five to two doesn't look like value anymore.
00:20:49
Speaker
And what about the, ah first of all, I don't want you saying too many good things about the horse because I don't want her too short. So I'm glad you threw in that cavity at the end. Thank you. um As far as the other, I guess, favorites, we'll start with them.
00:21:01
Speaker
ah You can go in any order you want, but if you can just maybe touch upon, guess we can go in number order, in the four times to dream, and then we'll go over to the eight deep learning and the nine line link, if you don't mind. Yeah, time to dream. She was obviously a precocious two-year-old. And while it seems like she's stepped forward a little bit, at least on the buyer scale, when you watch a lot of her races, I don't know how much she's really improved over time. The competition's got a little tougher. She obviously just wasn't quite as good as those horses in the Belmont Oaks last time. She got a decent enough trip. But I think the class relief in this race will help her a little bit. I just didn't really have that much interest in her on the win end. Deep learning is a little more intriguing because she's making that jump from two-year-olds to three-year-olds. So Maybe there's going to be some improvement there. Chad Brown can obviously win off layoffs. um She's another one, though, that was so good on debut. Has she ever really gotten back to that race or progressed from it?
00:21:49
Speaker
Maybe she does now that she's an older horse. She could not have gotten a better trip when she won the Chelsea Flower last time. So I wonder how much upside is there. Lion Lake, i mean, she is the one who's got the races that suggest that she is...
00:22:03
Speaker
maybe right on par, if not a little better in terms of accomplishments than Amber Glenn. She hasn't been getting the job done recently, but she's faced some of the best horses in the division. ah My problem with her, well, it's twofold.
00:22:15
Speaker
Minor problem is that it seems like she missed the Belmont Oaks because she missed training. She didn't work for over a month after that. um The other problem is that she's drawn in the outside post at a nine horse field and she's getting a jockey switch to Luis Saez who never seems interested in saving ground. So I worry that she's gonna have to be, you know, two or three lengths the best here because I think she's gonna lose two or three lengths on the turns. So that's my reservation with Lion Lake.
00:22:39
Speaker
We're definitely learning who David likes and doesn't like his jockeys. So that's interesting. There's nothing else to take out of this podcast, but um I think I gave the four time to dream a little more credit. don't know. Credit is the right word, but benefit of the doubt. And you, I thought ah last race was very tight. It was like kind of tight, early, very rank.
00:22:55
Speaker
I thought Ren better than it looks personally. So I don't know how much the word has improved ah since she came back this year, but I kind of liked the four a little bit here, especially if you have her about six to one or if she goes off five to one or higher deep learning.
00:23:11
Speaker
I don't know. I know you mentioned it, so I don't have to repeat what you said, but I just thought she got really good trips last year, the last couple of races, um, saving ground, almost like perfect trips. and I know like the last race she won the Chelsea flower, she won easily. So i don't want to hold it against her. Just so like I was talking about Amber Glenn earlier, I don't want to hold it against her because she had an easy trip and and got the job done. But I don't know i think she has to improve a decent amount. Maybe I'm wrong. Uh,
00:23:34
Speaker
That's the eight deep learning. And then Lion Lake, I mean, you mentioned already, so I won't talk more about her. Is there anyone outside of those four? Like for me, it's just kind of a little bit of ah a chalky race here. I don't really see anything outside of those top four. Do you have anyone else outside that top four? Apparently, yes. Go ahead there's one There's one horse I want to try to get in there somewhere. um And it's the number one, Han Floor, the other Chad Brown horse.
00:23:58
Speaker
Just because you look at her and you're like, why is she in this race? She's eligible for a first level allowance. Chad Brown generally places horses to win at Saratoga. He's got there. They're going to be first level allowance races that she can run in. So like, why is she here? um I watched the recent workout where she actually has been training in company with deep learning. And she had been a horse that was basically in Kentucky for her entire career, which is a little odd for Chad. He doesn't usually leave them in Kentucky. And it feels like he kind of just got his eyes on this horse recently when she's been training with deep learning. And watching the last drill, I thought she was going slightly better than deep learning, albeit on the dirt. um So you don't know how much that means.
00:24:39
Speaker
The other thing is, you'll notice looking at this day's card, the rails are going to be down at zero on the inner turf course. And sometimes saving ground is really the best path on these courses when the rails come down to the middle of the meet. And you know exactly what Jose Ortiz is going to do. He's going to try to get this filling into the pocket early, just save all the ground. And I thought her maiden win was pretty good too back at Churchill. And she got a slightly tougher trip than star actress in that allowance race last time. So You could make the argument she's improving. To me, she's the only interesting price horse in this race.
00:25:11
Speaker
GQ, anything? Oh, no. So with that said, who goes out to make the three Candy Moonshine honest? Is it Lion Lake? Is it Han Floor?
00:25:23
Speaker
Someone else? I think it's Amber Glenn. As long as she breaks. If she breaks well, i think they're I think they're going. And they'll probably have to sit too wide outside of Candy Moonshine because Candy Moonshine is kind of a one-way speed horse. But I think it's going how Amber Glenn breaks is going to be critical to her chances as well as critical to how this pace unfolds.
00:25:43
Speaker
Gotcha. but i have One more question, actually. yeah um the seven code. Last race beat me out of a a big triple because i love the top two and i had a nice exacto there, but she got third. That was a race where I think the four horses fell down and yeah luckily every one other than maybe Javier Castellano is okay. So that's good. The horses are okay and jockeys are okay other than Javier and hopefully he's back soon.
00:26:05
Speaker
So I can't watch the replay. I remember at first I was able to watch it and then they even took it off. I don't want to like give away secrets, but they took it off of the YouTube where you can find a certain replays. So do you remember that trip? Were you able to get a replay? and And how do you think code ran in that race for those who can't watch a replay?
00:26:22
Speaker
So knowing that race was probably going to be you know removed from existence soon afterwards, um like in the half hour after that race, I just put all my trip notes for that race in formulator. So my trip note for code is good start three wide first turn outside of trouble settled three wide mid pack avoided incident into lane stayed on mildly.
00:26:44
Speaker
All right. That's a good answer. And you're not messing with her. So I didn't love her last time, so I'm not going to love her here. All right, GQ, I guess we can move on. All right. Sounds good. right. So now we move on to the feature, the third leg of the late pick five on Saratoga. It is race 10.
Jim Dandy Race Morning Line Favorites
00:27:01
Speaker
It is the grade two Jim Dandy at one mile and one eighth Half a million dollars presented by Mohegan Sun, field of five. And I am curious.
00:27:14
Speaker
Everyone wants to know, drum roll, please. Who's the morning line favorite, Renegade or Commandment? It is Commandment, but it's close. um I did go six to five, seven to five on Commandment, Renegade. um I thought about you know going down to even money, seven to five or eight to five.
00:27:31
Speaker
i don't know. Renegade just gets bet every time. So, I mean, I guess there are people going back to him here. We'll see. But um I think it's hard to deny how well Commandment ran last time. So I think he's going to be the favorite in here, but I don't think it's going to be a huge separation. And I just want to ask you a question because GQ and I earlier in the week were texting... about the morning line in this race. And again, people listening this. They can see the morning line. So it's not that dramatic ah a radio here, but Chip Poncho, what do you what are you thinking roughly? Cause we had a pretty significant disagreement if I'm not mistaken. Oh, but hold on. Timeout timeout. I did that like off the top of my head and I had a brain fart that was only five horse field. So my odds were inflated.
00:28:12
Speaker
Okay. All right, David. so you think Okay. So with that being said, now I'll give you three to one. Oh, now we're in sync. I sent five i think I have 5 to 2, but go ahead. I've got them 3 to 1. Okay, perfect.
00:28:25
Speaker
Yeah. I know going to put out a video on the Jim Dandy and people can watch it on the DRF YouTube channel. So maybe we'll go a little quicker on this race to save some time. Chiponcho just going to be the lone speed here, do you think? Or someone going to go with him? And is he good enough to hold on and win this race if that's the case?
00:28:43
Speaker
Yeah, he's a funny horse because, to be honest, I didn't like him that much through the derby trail. um I just thought he got some you know pretty good setups and he just was kind of... you know not really finishing those races despite getting some decent trips. you know The Louisiana Derby, i you obviously, you he just kind of lost his mind early in the race, didn't handle rating and backed up. So it's kind of interesting that it seems like he's turned into a different horse the last couple of times where he suddenly can rate behind horses and finish. And um you know he's moving in the right direction.
00:29:15
Speaker
Have the rating tactics and getting him settled down, does that unlock new potential? If they kind of get him keyed up again and go to the front, is he going to run as well? I don't know. um I still don't think he's quite as good as the favorites in here. So even with a pace advantage, I didn't love him in this race, especially a three to one. If that's around where he is, i'd I'd want a better price than that, given what I think is the disparity in ability between him and and a couple others.
00:29:41
Speaker
GQ, you want to ask about Silent Tactic, what you asked me that I had no answer to? You know, I didn't do the research. I didn't look up. Was Silent Tactic injured? Is that why he hasn't been seen since the Arkansas Derby?
00:29:54
Speaker
Yeah. So he, ah i believe he was entered in the Kentucky Derby and he was scratched the week of the race because of a foot bruise. And then they were going to run back in the Preakness for like a week. And then Mark Cassidy was like, well, the foot bruise hasn't healed well enough. So he's out of that race too. um And I guess now they've just given him time for it to heal. he seems like he's trading more consistently. So he's probably over all of that.
00:30:18
Speaker
um But you still have to ask your yourself the question of how good was he back in the springtime? so So you're basically down to the two favorites here, I assume. yeah yeah a friend No, no, I'm on Ask and Answer. Ask and Answer. I'm sure you are. fifty one Here you go. Here's my question. um Were you even tempted to put 99 to 1 as a morning line?
00:30:43
Speaker
ah Full disclosure, Naira doesn't request many things from me as the morning line maker. um They have requested I try to avoid 50 to 1 in graded stakes races. I can use it other times. But, you know, obviously we want we want people to support these graded stakes races. And if ah someone's putting up the money to run their horse in a graded stakes, I guess you give them that courtesy. But the other thing is, something I've noticed about these races is horses just don't go off at 100 to 1 in five horse fields. so even 50 to one. So there's going to be somebody that wants to bet, you know, the fifth choice of this race and and happens to be asked and answered.
00:31:20
Speaker
So he'll be 30 to one morning line. He's 30. All right. So then just so we can wrap up the race, because it's to me, I always say Saratoga would be great without stakes races because the racing is great. And then you get the five horse fields for all these dirt stakes race. Do you have a preference running aid commandment?
00:31:39
Speaker
Yeah, i'm on commandment. um i I think Renegade's a nice horse. His last race is a little but a little troublesome because he has had this potent lead kick in just about every race this year, and it just was not there in the Belmont Stakes last time. I thought he got a pretty good trip, all things considered. I mean, there was like a slight moment where he bobbled at the start, but than that, I mean, he was in position. He got that clear run at the quarter pole, and he just flattened out, which makes you wonder if some of the rain that fell affected him.
00:32:09
Speaker
He was feeling the effects of of the campaign. But Commandment just ran better than that race. He covered more ground on the turns. He finished better. um i don't love this blinker change that Brad Cox is making because I never loved blinker changes, especially on short prices. And I found a really bad stat for Brad Cox doing this. um But in this field, there's no alternative. So I'm not going to let it bother me too much.
00:32:34
Speaker
So he's due. Go ahead, Eric. I'm sorry. Yeah, I told you here before we went on. i don't know if you have the same exact staff, but in graded stakes, first time blinkers, Brad Cox has had eight starters. Maybe I did dirt too. I'm not sure, but I don't think so. Eight starters, zero wins, zero seconds, and zero thirds. Is that the same set or do have something different?
00:32:55
Speaker
Same stat. Well, yeah, that's interesting. ah We'll see what happens here. So if you were planning to pick five here, you would probably just single Commandment because you basically said something negative about every other horse?
00:33:06
Speaker
ah Pretty much. I don't want to be in a situation where I'm using both Renegade and Commandment, and I just like Commandment better than Renegade. So yeah, he'd he'd pretty much be a single for me. I think that's the only way to get through this leg based on my opinions. um I'll just make one comment about the blinker change.
00:33:22
Speaker
I get why they're doing it because when you watch this horse's races, there are like those moments where he loses focus. We saw it in the Fountain of Youth at the end of the race. um You know, and even in the Belmont stakes, it was like, but I liked him in that race. And i don't know how you guys felt watching the race unfold around the far turn. There was a moment where it looked like he was going to be off the board. He just was not responding to John Velasquez. And then all of a sudden he like jumped into the bridle when he felt golden and tempo coming up alongside of him. So I get why they're doing this. um I still, i still don't love it.
00:33:52
Speaker
And I'm going to get killed in New York by saying a nice jockey upgrade on Commandment here. Even though Johnny V was arguably the best jockey of my lifetime, at this point, Pratt, I would love to have him. It's not as big of a rider upgrade as it was in the Belmont Stakes. I'll put it that way.
00:34:08
Speaker
Oh, we won't mention it in there. Wow. I like that guy too. I know he has been great last year too. You know why I like the guy you just referenced? Because I believe he was on maximum security in the Kentucky Derby.
00:34:23
Speaker
And my horses came in second, third, fourth, and fifth in the Kentucky Derby until they took maximum security down. And I made a huge, huge score. so That's why I like him. But anyway, um for me, not that people care about me. They care more about you. I'm a little higher on Chip Honcho, and I agree with you. I didn't like Chip Honcho that much in all the preps and going to those races, but I think the Horde is improving.
Analyzing Horse Performances and Strategies
00:34:43
Speaker
I don't know if a game and commandment or improving. i think he has a speed advantage, and I've never been high on this horse, but in this case, I'm going to lean that way. i think I would go 1-5 because, I mean, the two, to me, he has no shot.
00:34:56
Speaker
I agree with you, what you said on Renegade, unless I want to throw in Silent Tactic, but I don't know how good the horse is. But since I do have two singles in the sequence, maybe on like a 50-cent ticket, I'll throw in Silent Tactic. But mostly I'm 1-5 in this race and pick five in multi-race bets.
00:35:11
Speaker
Okay, GQ? Let's move on leg four of Saturday's late pick five at Saratoga. It is the third of the four turf races that the Jim Dandy is sandwiched between. This one is a five and a half furlong turf, state bred allowance, 105,000 non-winners other than.
00:35:31
Speaker
And we have nine who are scheduled to go post-war, two main track onlys. ah David, share your thoughts on this one. This race really annoys me because going through it and handicapping, i was thinking, oh, like this is a really interesting race. It's so competitive. There are horses I'm finding that are are really intriguing. It's so evenly matched. And then you get to the number nine Dakota country and you're like, oh, well, this horse is a standout. um Can you beat him? i guess you can. He's going to be a heavy favorite. I mean, i I've got him like between seven to five and eight to five in the line I'm doing. i don't I don't know how you guys are viewing this race. um
00:36:12
Speaker
He's a standout on paper, on form. He's getting eye read. Um, He's kind of tough to get around, but if you're able to beat him, I guess it's going to make the pick five sequence pay well, because when you look past that horse, it is just a totally wide open race where you can make cases for a lot. So I feel like there's incentive to try to beat this horse, but I don't know when, when I was picking apart the form, I, I had trouble finding too many vulnerabilities with him other than the fact that it's connections that are a trainer, I should say that doesn't win that much in New York. um How did you guys feel about the number nine Dakota country?
00:36:43
Speaker
Well, I mean, two back, the race at Santa Anita, the optional claim or starter allowance. I mean, I thought he got such a a fast pace and it was a big duel to set it up for him really well. So I know he put up a huge buyer speed figure, but I thought he really benefited from the race setup. And then, I don't know. I mean, last time he ran fine. I mean, he ran well. I shouldn't say fine, but...
00:37:06
Speaker
It's tough. I agree with you, though. looked at the race the same way. I'm going to try and beat him. Maybe it's a fool's errand, but for me, as far as multi-race bets, I'm singling basically two horses who are going to be around 3-1. We didn't get to the second one yet, so we'll see what the odds are, but around 2-1. In the gym dandy, I'm either going to have 6-5 winner or a 5-2, winner. So I'm not gonna get a price there in a small field. So to me, if I'm betting a pick five and I have those three winners, so I have basically three to one, three to one, if not shorter, and then maybe a six to five winner.
00:37:40
Speaker
And I get Chip Honcho or not Chip Honcho, I'm sorry, Dakota Country, the nine in race 11. two to one ish or whatever you said a little shorter, even my pick five is paying nothing. So I'm not too interested in that. So I'm probably going to try and beat them. the The fact is that I'm not going very deep in all the races, so it's not going be a very expensive ticket. So I'm not spending a fortune to try and beat the horse, but I don't know what major knock other than I think the the race two back was maybe better than it looks because of that speed dole. I don't know if you saw it the same way or not. I mean, based on what you're saying, you seem to think the horse kind of stands out. So maybe not, but looking, but if you want to say something, go I'm sorry. No, no. I mean, Yeah, we could just wrap up this horse because, I mean, he is the kind of the center of the race. um
00:38:18
Speaker
the the The thing to like about him, aside from the speed figures, is if you isolate his turf sprints, he's a nose away from being undefeated on the turf and sprints. He's three for four with a second. And, you know, the other thing about him looking through it is that he's a five-time turf winner.
00:38:36
Speaker
And as a five-time turf winner, he has won more turf races than the rest of this field combined. So... That gives him a bit of an edge. um My one knock on him, if I had to find one, was that this is five and a half. And with his style and it's coming out of some of those Southern California races, you do wonder if they go really fast up front, if maybe he's going get really outrun going five and a half and he'll have too much to do. That's the one way I can get around this horse.
00:39:02
Speaker
Yeah. and just talking betting real quickly, if you're out there and you're thinking about how to bet this race, I think it's really important that you look at the favorite and you decide. I mean, this is how I do it, at least.
00:39:12
Speaker
I love this favorite. at whatever odds the odds are going to be. I still love the favorite, and I'm going to key that favorite on top for the most part. and i mean, if you have 30 to ones, you can box also, but I'm going to key that favorite and use it. I dislike the favorite. I'm happy to bet against him because the price is way too short, or I just don't think the horse is that good, or, which I kind of feel in this race, think the favorite is pretty good.
00:39:34
Speaker
I don't want to spend a fortune trying to beat the favorite, but I really don't want to bet him at that short price, in which case I tend not to bet the race. So that's kind of where I'm leaning here as far as like vertically betting the race. If you like this horse, so if you're out there and you really like Dakota country and and David made a good case for the horse,
00:39:50
Speaker
and you're thinking about betting this race and just put the nine on top and we'll talk about some other horses and see what else you like. And if you're more like, think this horse is vulnerable, five and a half furlongs is short for a closer. Maybe there's no pace develops, even though it looks like there could be one. um Then just toss a horse and see if you can beat them and spread as much as you have to. And you're going to get paid if you get it right. So let's let's move on to some of the other horses in this field. I think one thing I want to ask you, David, actually is the July 4th race. A lot of horses are coming out of that July 4th race.
00:40:19
Speaker
I assume you're going to mostly agree, but it seemed like a race where the further back you were, the better it was that race. and you would probably upgrade the horses that were contesting the pace and maybe downgrade some of the closers.
00:40:31
Speaker
Yeah, I'd agree with that. I think the horse that he was the obvious upgrade from that race is King Puck, the number six, who was right in the teeth of that hot pace that completely fell apart. And he fell apart at the end too, but he certainly hung around longer than some of the other speeds. And he was right there like in second or third until the final strides. So I thought King Puck ran deceptively well in that race. And he was also coming off a layoff. Now he's getting Jose Ortiz. And if you go back and watch some of his races from Aqueduct last year, I think there were...
00:40:59
Speaker
reasons where he had big excuses in both of those races as well. So he's a horse that I think is subtly better than he looks. And when I was initially doing my first pass of this race, I was like, oh, I love King Puck. He's going to win this race. And then I got the Dakota Country and I was like, well, I got to pump the brakes a little bit. But i would I still like King Puck in this race.
00:41:18
Speaker
Yeah, and i definitely do. It's one of my ah top picks here if I had picks ah to give out. And the other horse, I'll just go on and and get your thought process. Actually, no, before I talk about the other horse, I kind of like a lot here. I want to ask you about a horse that I put at 15-1 on my morning line here. i assume it'll be somewhat similar, but maybe I'm way off. The 8th.
00:41:37
Speaker
Dillilo, if that's how you pronounce it. Dilliello? Dilliello? don't know how to pronounce that. So these the horses who, and I'm curious how you handicap um a trip like this. So we mentioned that July 4th race where the eight horses coming out of and benefited horses that were closing and this horse was closing.
00:41:54
Speaker
However, the horse got off to a slow start, which if that was it, I'd be like, eh, slow start, but maybe actually helped because ah put her in a good, or him in a good position to set up a close into a race that kind of fell apart. But Didn't have much room in the stretch last eighth of a mile. So how do you look at a horse who had a great setup, but also had trouble?
00:42:14
Speaker
Yeah, no, I saw the same things. He kind of got ridden into traffic at the end of that race. How much did it cost him? He was never going to win the race because he wasn't closing quite as fast as Mozambique or Wrighton. mean, he picked up some momentum, but he was behind those horses at the point in the race where he started to make the run. I thought, I'll say this. I,
00:42:33
Speaker
I thought the ride he got, the jock never put him in position to ever have a chance to win the race. So I didn't like that. um But as you were saying, it was low and it's not like he did anything the race that made you think that he's so much better than he looks on paper. So um yeah. and And as far as the price, I've got him at 15 to one on my line. So he's going to be a price in here.
00:42:55
Speaker
i i think he's more of an underneath type than a wing candidate personally. and The other horse I wanted to mention, I put it five to one in the morning line, so i' I'm curious your thoughts as well. This has become, instead of a podcast about like analysis, podcast about can Eric guess the morning line, which makes me happy, but probably people out there don't give a crap. ah The one Illmatic, I believe that's Illmatic. ah There's a horse who is coming out of a three-year-old restricted stakes race. I'm assuming it was a New York bred New York sired race. and I thought the horse ran pretty well. Chase is 9-1 winner, but
00:43:28
Speaker
In that race, if you watch the replay of the one, El Maddox, last race, the horse was on the lead, came out on the turn, late on the turn, near the top of the stretch. And really, I guess I forgot now, but I think like just bumped the horse or made the horse check really hard, kind of veer out. So I thought the trip was suddenly bad. And I didn't watch the replay four times and check the head on eight times.
00:43:49
Speaker
I don't even remember they inquiry on the race, but I was kind of, unless the horse that, yeah, the horse that hit him was a winner, I think, right? Do you remember that? Yes. um So that's a weird situation. i was actually talking to, I'm stealing this idea from Andy Serling. We had a conversation about this and he had like a theory of what happened. Because when you watch a lot of trips, you notice that, um especially on the turf, but it happens on the dirt too, at that exact point on the racetrack, like right before the quarter pole, over that period of time, so many horses did exactly what the winner of that race, Nisuna Patina, did, where they just like veer out. It's almost like there must be some glare coming off the grandstand that the horses react to because they like come into this they they are coming into the stretch and it's like they completely lose their focus. And we saw two horses in the same race do the exact same thing.
00:44:37
Speaker
So you wonder if like something happened there. I don't think, I don't think one horse fouled the other. I think they both kind of independently reacted to the same thing on the racetrack because I've seen it happen in other races too. um But, you know, does that mean I want that horse out of that race? I don't, I don't know. I didn't think it was the strongest affair. This horse probably is the speed in here depending on how much speed we get from the Finger Lakes horse. But yeah, I didn't love him as a turf horse.
00:45:03
Speaker
All right, and then one other horse I'm going ask you about, and then either GQ or you want to mention anyone else, the 7 Riten. We talked about that horse as well. Briefly, what we didn't really talk about We talked about the race he came out of, I guess, and his name was mentioned.
00:45:16
Speaker
Again, got a beneficial setup. I thought the horse ran pretty well two back off the layoff on June 7th. Not only the layoff, but hopped at the start and lost probably, what, like six lengths or more at the beginning. Stumbled late on the turn as well, took a bad step. So I don't remember who I bet on July 4th, assuming I was betting, but I probably liked this horse at seven to one And the horse got off to a slow start again, mostly on its own. So that could be an issue, although it wasn't nearly as bad as the time before that. But it had a good setup. Am I silly to think this horse is improving, or is that race two back pretty good, and then last race just didn't really improve?
00:45:56
Speaker
Uh, yeah, i don't really like this horse to me. He was with the flow last time breaking slowly kind of helped him. and he's going to break slowly again. Cause he does it every time. um I, I I'll say I would prefer Dilly yellow to this horse at twice the price. Um, and you know, if I didn't like Mozambique, so I can't find myself liking writing. Um, the one other horse I I'm interested in is the number two Joker on fire, who, um, is coming out of a different condition. That was a starter optional claimer. And, uh,
00:46:22
Speaker
you know If you kind of take the California horse out of this race, I would say that was a slightly tougher race the Joker on fire is coming out of. um He hung at the end. He had his chance to win and hung, but the winner might be okay. um And this horse ran great at this condition two back where he got this uncovered four wide trip all the way around the turn. He was best that day. um So I just think this horse fits this race really well. And he probably won't take as much money as he should because Jose Las Cano is over at the meet. But I mean...
00:46:49
Speaker
the guy can still ride. So, uh, I'm not going to let that deter me too much. Yeah. And i mean, last race, the horse that got shuffled back maybe into a perfect trip. So maybe it helped the shuffle back, but thought horse got shuffled back. Um, I didn't write where in the race, but probably somewhat early into a perfect early on.
00:47:03
Speaker
Yeah. Thanks. And, uh, I mean, I had this for, am I wrong to say that's the second choice or am I wrong about that? Uh, I believe I have Illmatic nine to two and Joker on fire five to one, like mine for second choice. Yeah. All right. GQ, you want to mention anything or anything else? No, you guys have done enough for that one. So we'll move on to the last leg, race 12 on Saturday at Saratoga the late pick five.
00:47:28
Speaker
It is a fun little maiden race, one mile, one-sixteenth turf. And I'm sure, David, you had some anxious moments over. maybe who the favorite should be in here. I see maybe a hand handful of them, not a handful, but maybe two or three that you could toss around as more like favorite.
00:47:50
Speaker
Yeah, I would say ah two things. Three horses likely to vie for favoritism and probably the same three horses likely to vie for the win. Um, So maybe that's not too interesting of a take on this race, but I think the right horses are probably going to get betting here. Which of them goes favored?
00:48:10
Speaker
i don't know. I mean, I think the one that I'm most confident is going to take money is non-consecutive terms, the five who just has nothing but good races behind her. And I know she's kind of turning into, you know, an early career maiden with four seconds and six races, but I mean, to kind of go through it, I mean, she has faced like stakes horse after stakes horses you in her prior turf races i mean sister troy and i don't know whatever ever happened to wine on sunday who won that race two back but i mean that was a stakes horse before she went to the sidelines and shalzawa looks like she'll be a future stakes horse for chad brown so um she's been a little unlucky she didn't have the right trip last time she's kind of the center of this race but um the two that are drawn directly outside of her uh there's appeal to both of them and i think rightly so
00:48:54
Speaker
Well, I said I have a single in the whatever race was earlier and then in the last race. And while i respect the five a lot and if odds weren't a factor and I can just use two or three, word i would I would use a five as well. But the worst I'm going single is the seven hedge book, who I have is a very slight third choice, like very close, but I'm hoping maybe seven to two. Maybe that's wishful thinking. But this is a horse who, if you just watched the last race, actually watched both turf races, the first race at Gulfstream, first race of her career, she was bumped hard out, bumped hard on the first turn and kind of bumped out. Other horses took it worse, but she got hit pretty bad on that first turn, then got stuck on the second turn through much of the stretch,
00:49:39
Speaker
finally got free lane and was moving well, but it was just too late when she got free. And that was her first start as well, going two turns, which is not easy. Plus, Chad doesn't... owe admit I shouldn't say this because I haven't looked at the stats, but just anecdotally, I don't think Chad does great at Gulfstream, at least in the past he hadn't. So for this horse to run that well at Gulfstream, maybe even extra credit. And then last race at Churchill Downs, horse had a nightmare of a trip, slight stumble early on. waited to go, and had no room from the middle backstretch, basically to the 16th pole, kind of similar to that first start, but even worse this time.
00:50:13
Speaker
And was totally like basically just totally stymied in the stretch. um You get a giant rider upgrade as well, which hurts the price. But if this horse gets a smooth trip, I just think has so much talent and ability. And yes, the five is very good coming off that wide trip off the layoff against good ones, like David said. And I definitely fear the five, but when I'm betting, I'm not going to bet two favorites and go too deep when I have chalked in just about every other leg. So I'm just going to single the seven. I'm hoping David likes the seven and doesn't dislike because that scares me. But David, if you want to just briefly touch on the seven, which is a hedge book and then anyone else you want to.
00:50:48
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I was doing the line for this race wondering if Hedgebook would be the favorite because everything you said is so true. I mean, she's had such obvious but legitimate trouble in her races. I mean, she's so much better than she looks on paper. And I think people are going to you know catch on to that. um I do like her in this race. I think she could definitely win. um Did you think she was going to win that last race? Or was she just going to be a good second? Because the winner did make a pretty big run in there and it to to open up at the end. um
00:51:18
Speaker
I thought she was probably going to be second, regard you know even without the trouble. um i don't know if you had thoughts on that. No, but as you're talking, I'm going to watch the race again now because I didn't make note of it. And I watched so many races that I don't remember 100%. you can keep going. Yeah.
00:51:32
Speaker
Yeah, because especially like going back to her debut, she doesn't have the best turn of foot. I mean, she's got a really long stride on her and she, when she like kind of gets going, she builds up the momentum gradually. um i don't know if she was going to be able to match that winner's kick at the end, but I think she would have like at most lost by a length if she had gotten free. And that would put her her buyer like in the low seventies and she'd be obviously a contender in this race. um So I think she makes sense. I've got her in the mix. um I may be a little more interested in the horse drawn between these two, the number six fancy in flight, who had a trip of her own at the end of last year at Aqueduct, where not only she totally stymied in traffic at the end of that race, but she drew post 11 that day, so she had to work to get over early. i thought Ruben Silvera actually did a good job for the first half of the race, trying to save as much ground as he could. But he made this perplexing move to go inside at the top of the stretch when he could have just swung out and won the race. And she just got totally stymied inside inside of a tiring runner.
00:52:30
Speaker
And um she was going to finish much closer at the end. Now, she was 86 to 1 that day. And she's going to be maybe 130th of that price in this race. um But I think for good reason, she's picking up IRAD. She's coming off the layoff. It looks like she is training great for this race. I watched her workout two back where she was making up ground in hand on works for me, that really good turf sprinter for Jolie.
00:52:59
Speaker
Um, so seems like she has a horse that is just doing well. She's got a ton of pedigree behind her. So, uh, don't care about the fact that she was over 80 to one last time. to me, she just looks like a horse that is actually pretty good. And, uh,
00:53:13
Speaker
she's I think she'll be tough in this race, but I'll always be mildly surprised if anybody outside of the five, six, or seven wins this race. Well, I agree with really everything you said. i like the six a lot as well for the reasons you said.
00:53:29
Speaker
It's weird because I-Rad is going to hurt the price, but Joseph f Lee is going to help the price, so i don't know, maybe they'll offset, set but probably more I-Rad money. People will be like, oh, why is I-Rad running for trainer that doesn't have many horses? Yeah.
00:53:40
Speaker
He's okay off the layoff. I guess he's 1-for-8, I think, off the layoff. So he hasn't had a lot of horses, Jolie. I think he was Kieran McLaughlin's assistant way back when. um and when He does a very good job.
00:53:51
Speaker
Yeah, I was going to say, when he went on his own, I just expected him because I was a big Kieran McLaughlin fan. I thought he would have a pretty big career. And like you said, he does a great job, but he just doesn't, I guess, have many horses or get many horses. So I'm curious, what what what do you have the price on the six, Fancy and Flight, roughly? I know you're still doing it, so you don't to commit, but...
00:54:10
Speaker
um Right now I've got her 7-2. Oh, okay. I didn't think she could go favorite in this race because I think the other two just have more immediate appeal. But look, people are going to notice it IRA. They're going to notice the trouble. So right now I've got non-consecutive terms, is five to two, Hedgebook three to one, and Fancy in Flight seven to two. If I switch up any of that, it might be making Hedgebook the favorite. But i'll I think I'm pretty much set on that. So I think those three will kind of be in that that corridor. All right. Now watch Hedgebook again, and the horse...
00:54:43
Speaker
nowhere to go the whole stretch actually had to slow down while the winner ran full speed and then came back on so yeah and I'm pretty high on the horse but you know we'll see and I think the horse is improving too that's the other thing I think the horse can improve but the one other horse I definitely well there's yeah I guess one other because you talked about the... ah No, two others I want to mention before we wrap it up. A horse who I thought might be the third choice, MS3 Amicable Farce. ah The other Chad Brown, I know it's Dylan Davis, but there's a horse who was coming off a layoff last time. I'm not sure what to make of the race. Obviously...
00:55:15
Speaker
in your I don't want to put words in your mouth, but the fact that you haven't mentioned her A as a favorite and and B as a horse you're that interested in seemingly, you didn't view the trip as anything crazy, but it was rank and and kind of keen early. um i don't know. It was kind of like on heels for a while, if that's the right term, but did save ground in a perfect spot.
00:55:32
Speaker
You think that horse is not going to, I know Chad's great off the layoff, so maybe the horse was you know cranked up and ready to go last time, but ah do you think that horse steps forward? I guess not. And how do you view the three amicable farce?
00:55:44
Speaker
I thought the horse got a great trip. i Yeah, she was like rank for a second going into the first turn, but I thought it was a great pocket trip after that. She had every chance to rally in the stretch. And when you watch the replay, I know it looks like she made up the ground on paper. She was never going by the winner. She just kind of flattened out at the end. um So I didn't love the replay. I don't love the race she's coming out of. She wasn't for me.
00:56:04
Speaker
And then the other horse I want to touch upon is the four horse, Timeless Melody. This horse that I have some interest in. So if i'm betting this race vertically, ah there's a horse I might have interest in. Timeless Melody had one start in May at Gulfstream. And the horse got off to a slow start. I think it was mostly you know on his own or her own, I should say.
00:56:24
Speaker
I just feel like watching the replay, the horse wanted to show some speed, but because of that slow start, couldn't, and then just couldn't get through, did save ground, which helped. I thought it ran okay, though. I thought it had a decent finish to the race, and I just have a feeling this horse is going to show a lot more speed with a better break today, and that's always dangerous here in New York in the race where...
00:56:45
Speaker
I mean, I don't know. That doesn't seem like a ton of pace. I mean, anyone can go, I guess, but maybe the two, maybe the one goes low. The one was going really long last time in a slow pace. So I don't think the one prime connection might, I mean, might have the lead. And I don't know the other one, maybe the five even can go, who knows, but, or or the, ah I mean, maybe Hedgebrook if she gets out. But so if you could, i'm I'm meandering. If you can touch on the pace for a second, if you have any thoughts on that, and then just touch on that four horse times Melody, who I think might be able to get to the lead even here.
00:57:14
Speaker
Uh, yeah, I mean, I, nothing would shock me with a second time starter. I mean, she could have more speed if she breaks, like you said, she was off slowly. Um, yeah I guess the one will go. Um, I wouldn't be surprised if the three goes because sometimes Chad sends one, um The horse that I think could be much more forward in this race is Fancy and Flight, who only didn't get to the lead last time because she was drawn in post 11 coming out of the dogleg at Aqueduct. She had speed that day. um So she'll be forward as well, I would imagine, if she breaks. um I didn't like Timeless Melody.
00:57:45
Speaker
That was a... That was a May Gulfstream race. It wasn't like a February, March Gulfstream race. It wasn't a good field. The horses that she was on the wire with would be like 20 to one in this race. um Chicken improve. I know Phil Antonachi points for this meet. I watched one workout when she had the turf drill at Saratoga.
00:58:03
Speaker
Sometimes these Phil Antonacci horses tout themselves in the works. For me, this one didn't. So she wasn't for me. All right, good to know. and And for me, when I'm betting a race, if you know I talked about the favorite before, but you know if I have respect for the favorites here, and and if we're saying the five, six, and seven in three favorites, I think all of them are legit. And you even mentioned you know you think the winner comes out of that. It's generally a race I'm not going to bet. So even though I like the seven, and I'll probably single the seven and pick fives,
00:58:29
Speaker
Unless the seven is, don't three to one, maybe higher in a win bet on that horse or key her on top, it's probably not a race I'm going to bet unless I feel I can get the four in in the money. I thought the six would be a higher price, so i'm which I'm sure I'm wrong about. So I was excited. I'm like, oh I'll do seven over, you know maybe the four at a price and the six at a little bit of a price.
00:58:50
Speaker
But it doesn't sound like that's going to be the case. So maybe not much of a vertical bet for me in this race. GQ, any final thoughts here? Yeah. We'd be remiss if I didn't validate David's comments about Jorge Ruiz by looking at the short comment on the two music box where the the horse was boxed in at the quarter pole, blocked in the stretch. and But now with the the famous and the wonderful Jamie Rodriguez taking over the mount, um we didn't touch on him, but quickly, David, do you see any hope here for the two?
00:59:30
Speaker
I think I've done enough hating on jockey so far this time I guess so I probably should I probably should refrain I was gonna I was gonna skip right over that horse um and and yeah look she she probably should have won last time but this is a much tougher race so she she was not for me fair enough the one thing I want to point out which Eric mentioned the four horse timeless melody ah the winner occurred we had mentioned three races back in race nine After code one that maiden race came back and just lost in a not now where's a one other than then ran admirable in the the stakes race. So that that's that's something there. But again.
01:00:18
Speaker
Before Eric, i don't know if Eric, you're, you're going to formulate anything here before we say our goodbyes. We're at one hour exactly as we wrap up. But um David, thank you again for spending your time with us and, sharing your insights. It's always great having you on and people just gravitate to to what you say and for good reason. Thanks again. I'll leave it to Eric to say our goodbyes.
01:00:49
Speaker
Yeah, happy me to join you guys. Thanks. We appreciate it It's, uh, I'm not just saying this because he's on the air, but David really is. i mean, in my opinion, and GQ can back this up. Cause I say to him and my friends all the time, he's as far as I'm concerned, the best handicapper in the country. And you can learn so much. I mean, I'm older than David by a decent amount. I believe I'm not going him how old he is, but I'm probably about 15 to 20 years old than him, if not more. And I learned a lot from him handicapping and just,
01:01:19
Speaker
I don't care so much who he's picking necessarily. i mean, I do in a way, but reading his analysis is a way to just get smarter as a handicapper, how you watch races, how you view races. So I know on Saturday, he used to have the write-up, which was so valuable. And I know it was a lot of work. And we spoke when I saw you a couple of weeks ago about it, but um and I really missed that. But I know on Saturdays, he puts out his betting strategies for DRF. And I'm never one to tell people to pay for picks and selections and things like that. But Just for the write-up, it's's you know if you're going to buy a book on handicapping, you're probably better off just buying that on Saturdays and reading it, and you'll learn so much about how to analyze races. and I think that will be ah a worthwhile endeavor. and He puts out a lot of videos for the DRF and
01:02:02
Speaker
I don't want to say what to say because it's going to sound negative towards other people, but I always get excited for the DR videos. And then if David's not on it, I kind of just like ah don't listen. I shouldn't say that. well I'll put David in a bad spot there. but But if he's on, I'm always listening because I want to hear his analysis of the race because as people know, I probably have too big of an ego and I usually – I don't know. I feel like I don't learn from enough people. And David's someone I definitely learned from. And and I think he's he's great. And I'm so thankful for him to come on. And I apologize to the listeners that we didn't get into the betting aspects too much of the races. But we'll get back to that next week. But I i know people just want to hear David's analysis of the races and thoughts. So we kind of went with that instead. And hopefully have everyone appreciates it. David, thanks again for coming on.
01:02:44
Speaker
Good luck to everyone if you're playing the races out there. I'll be swimming underwater in Saratoga this week, but by Saturday we should have some nice weather and some turf racing. So good luck this weekend. Thanks for listening. Ta-ta.