Transcript
Speaker: Hello, and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium. Gary Quill and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
Speaker: Hey and welcome to better betting My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium. Gary Quill, GQ, how be you?
Speaker: You're wonderful, Eric. Travers? Weekend coming up. and Unfortunately, unlike yourself, I don't make... pick five bets forget that i made them and and find out i have a couple of thousand dollars extra after I bet it, but we won't get into that. today um just want to uh welcome a special guest
Speaker: uh gentleman who i know uh even before he got involved uh With Naira Betts. He was very active on Twitter X. as a handicapper and stuff. and It's our pleasure to welcome Matthew DeSantis of Naira Bets.
Speaker: Thanks a lot for joining us this week, Matthew. Yeah, my pleasure. So glad to be able to join you guys, talk to you about a really fun sequence, and get into this pick five on driver's day.
Speaker: Awesome. so ah Tell us when you got involved with Nara Betts and your your actual position and what what you do for him. Yeah, absolutely. So as you mentioned, I was kind of a handicapper on X and I was a college professor actually for about 15 years before I got into handicapping full time and horse racing. and About three years ago. an opportunity came up at naira bets for me to be a content producer there
Speaker: And so I leapt at the opportunity to make a little bit of a midlife. For real? adjustment shall we say and i have not regretted it ever since it's great i love working with naira naira bets and they give me so much latitude to talk about the great racing not only taking place at Naira, but taking place all over the country and all all over the world. so I get to make social media videos, YouTube videos.
Speaker: Right. tutorials handicapping 101 betting 101 stuff and just creating content to help bettors And to. really introduce fans to the game as well and make sure that it's not so overwhelming and so intimidating and that we lower that barrier for entry. which I think sometimes can keep people from. placing that first bet because it can be a little intimidating.
Speaker: Sure. Well, hey, your efforts are... uh very Very well appreciated by everybody who who loves this sport so much and trying to attract more and more people into the sport. um curiosity when you were a college professor what what were you teaching
Speaker: Yeah, I was a political science professor. And so my graduate research was on the intersection of evangelical politics and the Republican Party. I taught religion and politics in the Deep South. That might have been not the best career choice, but and nevertheless, I did that. and Yeah, talk political science. Talk just about any class in political science you can think of, from political theory to comparative politics to international relations.
Speaker: to American government and everything in between. Love doing it. Worked in upper administration the last few years at George Mason University. i Really enjoyed that work as well. I just. love education. And in a lot of ways, I... see my position at higher bets is just an extension. of that just educating a different group of people about a different topic but I love teaching. It's something I've loved doing since I was in my 20s.
Speaker: Well, that's cool. Very good. and um Appreciate the fact that you're joining us here. Not our bets.
Speaker: Might as well throw out the plug there. We we are a non -sponsor, so we can plug everybody. So it's great it's great to have someone out there, and I'll do my... worst in the Surly impersonation.
Speaker: You know the drill. Go out to Naira Betts. Naira Betts. promo code is SPA200, where you can get an up to $200 match when you join Naira Betts. How's that?
Speaker: That's pretty good. You're going to be on Talking Horses soon. i well why you i don't I don't know if you know this, but um GQ is actually the Andy Serling of Timonium, and he's on their feed. He actually does the love that TV feed for Timonium coming up this weekend. So everyone out there, make sure you check out Timonium on Friday. Opening day.
Speaker: I'm one of, like, Tamarineum for seven days needs four racing analysts, but I'm i'm one of four analysts. like I prefer doing my best Maggie Wolfendale outside of the pack, you know, but i'll ah I'll take the compliment, Eric, and I'll be the Andy Serling of the Big T.
Speaker: this weekend and Memorial Day weekend. And for those who can stay, I'll i'll give you a little tip on a horse. for Friday. um'm And hopefully...
Speaker: If all of our our listeners put $2 a win on him, he'll open one to nine, and I'll know that you know i might my point got through. But anyway. ah I digress. Let's get busy.
Speaker: uh with the late pick five on traverse day which starts in race 10 it's the one mile on the inner turf The grade two Lake Placid.
Speaker: and uh There's no sponsor. It should be sponsored by the 1980 USA hockey team. Right, Eric? Eric's a big hockey guy. so um So there's a field of nine that are due to go postward.
Speaker: The number one horse. Queen of Hawaii. is the 2 -1 morning line favorite. And. as we always do with our guest, Matthew.
Speaker: Um... Did you... See Queen of... Hawaii as the logical choice here or did you go elsewhere? Yeah, I'm going to try to kind of play against Queen of Hawaii very modestly. With number five.
Speaker: uh the chat brown horse naomas who's making her north american debut queen of hawaiian you have to respect everything coming out of phil antinacci's barn so i have a lot of respect for the connections obviously but stepping up into stakes company Here for the first time after an optional claiming win, I just thought might be an opportunity to play against a horse at a short price. I really like Naomi's a three to one. Chad Brown, Flavian Pratt. This is a horse that's a group two winner over in France. So you definitely like to see that European form. Chad has so much success with these horses coming over. and What's really telling is how much Time this horse has had at Saratoga has been working out since... early July and getting acclimated. So I love to see that and just a really classy horse. And again, Flavian Pratt.
Speaker: up on the mount. And as a horse, that's a little bit more. strategically can be strategically placed in the race is not one of these euros that's a big deep closer can i kind of stay in touch with the early pace so i thought three to one was a really honest price on naomas and the other horse that i'll just mention very quickly at a little bit more of a price that I think is interesting saying is the number nine.
Speaker: East your BIP. on the trainer change for Todd Fletcher now, taking over for Brian Lynch. Tyler Gafleon remains aboard, actually. Rube just wanted to pucker up. and I just remember this horse winning at Keeneland and being so impressed back in April. But the turn of foot.
Speaker: It really doesn't enable to put it all together since then, although ran second in the Teppan to Tam Tam, who. just absolutely crushed. They're racing out at Del Mar. last weekend and last time out just got caught going a mile and an eighth up on the lead So I think the cutback to a mile is ideal, and Tyler's already familiar with the horse. So that one is 6 -1. was another one that I was interested in.
Speaker: Awesome, very good. So Eric, we'll switch it over to you. Where where are you landing? Yeah, I'm not much different than Matthew there. I like the five. My only fear is I did my handicap before the morning line, and I thought the five was going to be the morning line favorite. And obviously, David's excellent, so he's probably right.
Speaker: And I hope he is. But I've heard a lot of people picking Naomi's. So it's kind of worrying me about the price on Naomi's. I have a feeling this horse is going to be. significantly less than 3 -1, but I hope not. But I don't want to repeat everything matt said ah Matthew said. Two back, the horse was in seventh, and closed nicely, held well.
Speaker: Last race 2 -1. Pretty much the whole way in fourth. Really held well again. Very game horse at the end when the other horses come and show him. Her, I'm sorry. She holds really well. So I definitely like that horse. You're going from Tony Piconi to... ah Flavian Pratt. So I never heard of that jockey. I'm sure I'm mispronouncing it.
Speaker: But... I think the horse looks very good in this spot. I don't love anyone else. The one Queen of Hawaii makes a lot of sense. For reasons Matt already said, second off the layoff now. As far as betting the race, it's probably not a race I'm going to Naomi's is 3 -1. I would probably make a win bet on Naomi's.
Speaker: And as far as the pick five goes, I'm just going to single Naomi's. I could go one five here and chalk out a little bit, but I would only do that if I had a lot of prices and was against a lot of favorites later in the sequence. and I don't know that I am enough. So I'm single to Naomi Sierra. She loses.
Speaker: then I can always bet a pick four or just... Watch the races and vet them individually. That's all I got. very good so we Pretty much, Neoma's out on the... the First leg. So let's move on to the second leg, race 11, seven furlongs, the $500 ,000 grade one four go.
Speaker: And... ah The Jersey bread, book them down. Our number five is the even money. Morning line favorite. And Matthew, I think I...
Speaker: I peeked at your video that you did on our bets on this. I won't steal your thunder. So take over the analysis of the race 11. Yeah, I think this is a spot where I'm going to be playing against the favorite. i Book of Dano, I have a lot of respect for, obviously.
Speaker: But I just have a feeling that maybe last year's form was a little bit better than this year's form. Obviously ran on Bookum Dan O'Day down at Monmouth Park in the Mr. Prospector. I get it. but I'm all over Tip Top Thomas here. I absolutely love this horse. The number one for Todd Pletcher, five to one.
Speaker: This is a horse that beats sovereignty in debut. That was a very heavily hyped race back when he was a two -year -old. Rookie card, Key Whedon came back to win next time out as well. i Always liked this horse a lot. He was always a one -turn horse, though, in my mind. Kind of got the mile on the 16th in the Indiana Derby on class, I think more than anything else.
Speaker: and Ran, I thought of. Really spectacular race off of significant layoff, having not run from November to July, last time out facing senior officer. And finishing second by a neck. Stretches out to seven furlongs. I got a chance to see this horse. Paddock school today looked absolutely spectacular for Todd. And I just, you know. Flavian Pratt remains up on the mound. five to one i think you'll get a pretty honest price because of the amount of public money on bookum dano so For me.
Speaker: Loves ah Tip Top Thomas in this spot. And this is a one where I'm going to be tossing Bookum Dano from my pick five. And I'm going to be using. Tip Top Thomas and senior officer. as the two horses who try to beat him in the spot.
Speaker: Sounds good. Take a big stand. And and if you're right, then you've got a nice pick five going right there. Eric, do you agree? Disagree? Oh, for the most part I agree.
Speaker: Tip Top Tom is not only what Matt, you said about the horse. But he also could be the lone speed in this race. I mean, he really looks like the main speed. I don't know who's going to go with him in this spot. Banishing is not running the seven horse here, right? He's running somewhere else. Charlestown, wherever he's running at. I forgot. So definitely Tip Top Thomas could be the lone speed. I feel terrible picking him against or not using Bookumdano just because ah Derek Ryan is friendly with, ah well...
Speaker: I've had dinner with him, and we're friends with, or I'm friends with some of his ah friends, notably the Chicken Man of Monmouth, if ah you know who he is. That's for Tom so he can understand. But, yeah, so I feel bad rooting against Wickham Daniel. I'll probably be rooting for him. But... The two horses that Matthew mentioned, I definitely want to use. I won't repeat Tip Top Thomas, what he said, but Senor Officer ran a really good race last time against Tip Top Thomas. ah Tip Top Thomas was off a layoff, so he definitely has a right to step forward. And I thought that race last time probably...
Speaker: set up a little bit for closer is where senior officer though really got stuck the top of the stretch, lost momentum, position, and re -rallied and still won pretty easily. Even though it's only a neck, he he kind of won that pretty easily. So I definitely like that horse a lot. And then the one horse at a price that I want to use is Bring the Smoke, the eight horse. And I know it's a step up in class.
Speaker: ah He did win the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint. Is that the race, GQ? I can't read you well, small font. Yes, Matt is confirming as GQ ignores me. Thank you. ah but Anyway. This was...
Speaker: I upgraded both of his last races. Chewbacca got squeezed bad at the start. Although he had a pretty good set up and trip after that. And then last race, he stumbled at the start. So hopefully he gets out of the gate, but at 10 to one or close to it.
Speaker: Jose Ortiz taking over for Zayas. I like up in smoke. and my one concern is there's really not much pace potentially, but if someone does go with tip top Thomas, maybe.
Speaker: Bring the smoke and sit behind. and close for the victory so for the most part i'm gonna go one six eight here in pick five And I don't know. I just haven't decided how much I want to invest in in beating Bookumdano because I like Bookumdano.
Speaker: uh so As far as vertically betting, if I did, I would just bet 168, and I could even box that and all and maybe key on one of them. But that's what I'm looking at, 168 mostly in race 11.
Speaker: Matthew, anything else for that race? Yeah, I'll just very quickly mention ah the price that I'm a little bit interested in, probably more in. Verticals rather than in a horizontal sequence is the number two him for Ron Moquette. I know he's not a trainer that has a lot of success up here at Saratoga.
Speaker: But he's had some horses run underneath, and most notably him did last time out. I thought it ran a really good second. to Bilt, who just ran a hole in the wind that in that race ah in the Alper G. Vanderbilt. So I thought him... really has answered the Lasix question the last couple of times out, running good races and had been in very good form prior to coming up here and running a game second and it has the right sort of running style. Presumably it's just going to be.
Speaker: you know, hanging out maybe a length or two behind tip top Thomas and won't give himself too much to do at the top of the stretch. So he's one that I'd be using. and different sorts of exacted trifecta wagers in this race.
Speaker: And if you... I can't say you don't like Bookumdano, but if you're out there and you want to play against Bookumdano, anytime you're playing against an even money shot, if you have to spread a little to beat that horse, that's okay. So, you know, hearing what Matthew is saying and and a little what I'm saying, if you want to do even like a one, two.
Speaker: 6 '8 box. exact triple if you want to spend that much that's fine because if you're right about booking down or not running in the money or running first or second you're going to make money and then i would try and Probably pick one of those swords that you want to key in on. Obviously, with Matthew, it's Tip Top Thomas.
Speaker: For me, I'm not really sure. It might even be bring the smoke just for the price. But anyway, so that's kind of how I see it. I guess Matt, you see it's race 11. GQ, you want to add anything? I know you're more of a facilitator for time reasons, but... Right, good job.
Speaker: there There was something I wanted to ask Matthew, his opinion on... And since he likes senior officer, looking at senior officer, he was a late blooming, he's a five -year -old gelding. Didn't make his debut until late in the three -year -old season.
Speaker: And if you look. ah He's always run with Lasix. This is going to be the first race since he's stepping up. I... I put some credence into that, whether or not a horse...
Speaker: is it going to be able to run at the same ability uh without lasix for the first time especially This one at five years old, though, lightly raced. Where do you stand as far as late and when a horse has to be off a Lasix?
Speaker: Yeah, it's definitely something that's a bit of an alarm. and and I... typically like to get a little bit of a price when I'm seeing a horse switching off Lasix for the first time and I don't have any form to go off of in that regard.
Speaker: Obviously, when you look at the connections, Brad Cox, you... generally expect his horses to fire pretty well off Lasix versus on Lasix. You know, that's not always the... case with each individual trainer and horse but What I will say is the other thing but that... ah I don't want to say I'm wary about it with senior officer.
Speaker: They've really taken their time getting to this point with him. And it is a little interesting. I kind of feel like a Brad Cox horse that's shown the ability. and Has never finished worse than second in his career. has's gotten a bunch of wins.
Speaker: I'm actually kind of surprised it's taken to this point to get him into a graded stakes race. so That might be a little bit of something that I'm just... I'm a little wary about not ah I don't want to say a red flag, but maybe an orange flag that pops up with senior officer. But that's definitely something I take into consideration. when I'm handicapping these races, for sure.
Speaker: Awesome. Okay, so let's move on to leg three for Saturday, Travers Day at Saratoga. Leg three is race 12, the seven furlong, $1 million. dollar Bye.
Speaker: Resort World Casino Ballerina Stakes, grade one, and a field of 12 assigned on. The seven horse weighs and means is the nine to five favorite.
Speaker: And again, Matthew, um I see that you did not land there. and you're you're fishing for a price so share with us I am fishing for a price here. I think there's a lot of speed in this race and I think it does not set up great. for ways and means considering where that speed is drawn, which is to her outside in the form of Maida and our disaster for Safi Joseph.
Speaker: When you look at Ways and Means, she is a... She's an awesome horse, and she loves Saratoga. But she really likes a particular type of trip, which is usually sitting. second or third on the outside.
Speaker: and kind of just... closely tracking the pace. I don't project her getting that sort of trip here with... Those two speed horses were outside crossing over in front of her. And even a horse like Eclatante, who's pretty fast and has a similar running style, potentially keeping her pinned in as well.
Speaker: So as a result, there's a lot of speed in this race in general. And I landed on a... Little bit of a long shot in the number two kill win. Four -trainer Rusty Arnold, 8 -1 on the morning line.
Speaker: Maybe I'm just... snake bitten by what happened last year when I was all over ragtime in that test. And she just came and nabbed me at the wire. And I thought there was no chance she was going to get there.
Speaker: But she is a perfect three for three on dirt. And I was just so impressed by the way she won that twin bridges at Ellis Park last time out against a really nice field of stakes winning Phillies and mayors.
Speaker: facing older for the first time and she was behind a wall of horses coming for home and she kind of made her way out and just put her head down got the job done super professionally with the pace the way it's projected to play out i think gilwin's a horse i'm Very excited to wager on as a top selection.
Speaker: I... Ways and Means is not a horse I'm necessarily willing to toss entirely. and She could be a little bit of a defensive use for me in this race. um But I think the other one. that I also have a lot of interest in is Eclatant.
Speaker: on the far outside who i think just bounced off that last effort in the Madison when she ran. a 93 in the Chicago, but still got the job done. I think you're going to see the best version for her. on Saturday. Very good. Eric your turn Yeah, I mean, it's it's the two horses you have to decide what you want to do with, right? The seven ways and means and the 12 eclatons are going to be the two fairly heavy favorites here. and I don't have major knocks against either one. You can argue Eklaton got a perfect trip last time and only won by a neck.
Speaker: Didn't get a huge speed figure, but... Perhaps that's all they... really needed out of that race. just enough to win it And she's capable of more because her race before that, obviously she got great speed figures there and ran really well. so I'm not really sure if I want to try and beat both of these horses here. There are a couple of prices that I want to talk about briefly. Matthew already mentioned wanting Kilwin. I do like Kilwin for basically the reasons he said. Maybe I didn't love the last race as much as he did, but...
Speaker: It was off a layoff, so the horse can definitely take a step forward. Another price I like is the 11 Beauty Reigns towards the outside for Belmont Junior Alvarado. I thought this horse...
Speaker: Ran pretty well the last couple races. And I think as a four -year -old, it's still improving. ah Two back got squeezed early. Last time also had a slow start. Some of it was her own fault, but she got bumped too. So it wasn't like she just couldn't get out of the gate totally. I would worry if if two or three starts in a row, she had a slow start. But it wasn't totally her fault last time. So um if the pace is hot, which I'm always reluctant. at a Naira track to say there's going to be a hot pace, but if it's hot.
Speaker: I think Beauty Reigns has a big chance here. and one other price is a really big price and that's a six cappa kappa kappa 31 in the morning line from butch reed and paco lopez this is a horse who uh last year ran the grade two raven run i thought ran a really good race uh he was or she was three wide in a speed duel with two horses who faded a 15 to one shot and a three to one shot and he finished towards the back of the pack, and actually the 3 -1 finish last that day. um
Speaker: I lied. 7th out of 10. Sorry. But still faded. So I thought this horse did well. They stretched her out in the comely. Maybe doesn't want to go that far. Had a long layoff after that. Maybe something happened. Who knows? Didn't even run that badly for for most of the race. And I just think she's slowly improving. I know you might think, oh, the honorable miss when they stepped her back up into graded stakes competition, that she didn't run and as well as the race before. But too bad she had a fairly easy lead. Last race, she got off to a horrible start. Now, I'm a little worried because I'm taking all these horses that get off to horrible starts. So that could be a problem. And then I'll be kicking myself. Oh, I can't even get a break. So sometimes when you're... Playing horses that don't get off to those good starts consistently, you really can't complain. So I'm not going to complain. But again, maybe that slow start, there is ah a really fast -paced one killer. And she's mostly gotten out fine. It really wasn't or isn't a problem. Two out of her eight races or whatever it is, she had a slow start. So I kind of like that horse too. So I definitely want to use a 2 .6.
Speaker: and the 11. kill win kappa kappa and beauty reigns where i probably like the most of those three my question or not question but my dilemma is what do i do with the two favorites here and what i might do is i might box those three with the seven ways and means since they're all prices in a triple and i might also box them with eclatant and other trouble so i'm not going to probably have ah The two of them, Ways and Means and eclancon Eclaton together.
Speaker: with those horses maybe cap a cap at 31 but uh those are the three i'll be playing around with i won't go long because i spoke a lot but i'm actually going to throw in the five grammy girl as well, who i like the race to back the vagrancy i know it's a step up in class And then my either just send, um,
Speaker: Not only an easy lead, but ran her eyeballs out last time at Laurel. So this time maybe be a little better setup for the five. Again, maybe Grammy girl doesn't have a chance, but at 30 to one, I'll find out. So those are the horses I'm kind of looking at. And Matthew, before we wrap it up, you can say anything else you want, but what are your thoughts on Maida? I think they were pronouncing her name actually. Maida.
Speaker: Yeah, I mean, so... I know GQ likes his horse because of the Maryland tour, so he's tied to it. Oh, you shouldn't have said no. Uh -oh. Don't tell Brittany and Sheldon. I was all the way against her in her last race. I was completely against her in the Honorable Miss, and I got smoked. She ran so well that day.
Speaker: i She's more of a horse I'm going to be maybe thinking about. deeper underneath i just think her and our disaster are going to go at it up front and i just have a hard time seeing either of them surviving.
Speaker: to win that. even and i And I agree with you, by the way, Eric, about... We've all handicapped speed duels. new york And they usually don't materialize, particularly on the turf, on the dirt, maybe a little bit more honest. but What I will say is ah even if it doesn't end up going nuclear.
Speaker: I just have a hard time seeing those two holding on. uh to win so i'm willing to try to beat both of them as a horse that i'll be using in a pick five, for instance. But.
Speaker: you know Would it shock me if she held on for third or fourth? Not at all. uh but again it's a top choice i'm gonna try to beat her Yeah, and just one last one last point, then GQ you can jump in.
Speaker: But we saw last week with counting stars, for example, if you can beat a favorite. things pay like crazy. So if you have any doubts about ah a heavy chalk, like in this case, Ways and Means or Eclatom, both aren't heavy chalks, but if you have any doubts about these forces, like Bookumdana, Last Race, whoever it is, you bet you don't want to indiscriminately play against favorites and just throw money away. But the one time you beat an even money shot, it pays for the three, four, five, six, maybe even seven or eight times that you... Don't beat that horse trying, so or you try and beat it and you can't. so any Anytime you see some prices or some short prices and you can play against, that's a...
Speaker: Good idea in general. GQ? No, where I was just going to say about Maida and in that honorable miss. I know people looking at the PEP saying, oh, this horse's speed you know go has to go to the front. But I remember they were...
Speaker: debating prior to the honorable miss whether or not Um, she really needed uh it was a need the lead type of a horse and they were thinking about Ratner, but...
Speaker: Because she drew the rail. They had no choice, and he had to go. And. um Yeah, she may have taken you down in in that honorable miss, Matthew, but she she ran her eyeballs out, talking about running her eyeballs out. It looked like she she could have folded at any point in the stretch and just.
Speaker: dug in. So yeah, kudos to her. but um I don't know, so... what what i'm What I'm trying to say is maybe Sheldon, because he's not on the rail now and is more outwardly. He's not going to get in this suicide pace disaster this time around.
Speaker: and So who knows? Maybe our disaster is the sneaky play here. get in the league. Just yeahs for thought. It's interesting. i mean i This is one where like i I think post positions matter so much in these types of sprints. and I think if...
Speaker: Mata was to the outside of our disaster. I could absolutely see that taking place. I think maybe the inside. especially the ways and means of being right. to her inside as well. She wants to get in front of Ways and Means. right and i think that's just going to naturally kind of get her up on the lead now you know maybe our disaster still crosses over and clears in front of her um But...
Speaker: It's a... It's a tricky one and it's a... you Talk about it. This might be... My favorite race. In the whole pick five sequence. Because I think you can. make a case for As Eric was, and i all the horses Eric talked about made a lot of sense.
Speaker: You can make a case for seven, eight horses in this race easily. There you go All right, sounds good, guys. All right, let's move on to the feature race. That would be race 13 on sari Saratoga.
Speaker: the grade one travers 1 .25 million dollar purse Shh. Brought to you by DraftKings. Oh. Um... The Midsummer Derby, as we like to call it. ah The field of 10, and finally, number 9, Golden Tempo, has made a morning line favorite. It's amazing that this horse... ah has only gone off as the favorite once in his illustrious career.
Speaker: ah And, uh... David makes him the 5 -2 morning line favorite in this field of 10. Matthew, give us your opinions on the Travers. Yeah, talk about another great betting race, in my opinion. cool and tempo. I joked with somebody, he feels like the Rodney Dangerfield of horses. I tell you, I got no respect around here. And I'll let Frank Miramotti do the Rodney impressions around New York. but He, uh...
Speaker: He's a horse. I went back. I actually couldn't believe. that We got 6 -1 on this horse in the Belmont Stakes. That was just shocking to me. Because he is a horse that is... In today's... Spion.
Speaker: uniquely bred to go a mile and a quarter. And most of these horses are bred to go a mile or nine furlongs. And he is bred for distance. He's got zero early speed. But my gosh, as soon as the race gets beyond nine furlongs, he loves every inch of additional ground.
Speaker: He's dangerous in here. But I've been saying all year, I'm waiting for a new horse to kind of show up on the scene. Shake things up. This three -year -old crop hasn't been super fast.
Speaker: ah you know It really hasn't been like last year or even two years ago with fierceness in Sierra Leone. And so... I'm taking a big swing and I'm doing it with the number two leading change.
Speaker: for trainer Brad Cox. 12 -1 on the morning line. Coming out of an Indiana Derby victory. Only two career starts. But this is a horse that has the pedigree, sired by Gunrunner, half -sibling. to the 2020 Kentucky Oaks winner, She Dares the Devil, as well as another stakes winner. on the female side as well.
Speaker: There's a lot to like here. Wafnan Racing owns Same ownership as commandment. He's just hanging out in the stalls getting ready for the Pennsylvania Derby. They're sending this one to the Travers. To me, that kind of tells me.
Speaker: This one feels like the more alive one and and how much confidence they must have to send this horse. to the Travers because... All commandment did was finish a really good second at Golden Tempo in the Belmont Stakes. He's a nice horse who I think can get a mile and a quarter under the right circumstances. so I'll take a swing with him as my top choice. Golden tempo, I have second in terms of my selections of my top four. I, I just think he loves this distance, and he doesn't need as much of a setup as people think.
Speaker: And then the other one that I'll say that I think is very dangerous is Napoleon Solo, who I think is lone speed in this race. And I love the jockey change to John Velasquez. Talk about watching races in New York.
Speaker: johnny v gets up on the lead and everybody else miraculously starts sitting off uh the pace so You know, you put Johnny on a horse like Napoleon Solo. I don't know how long the Liam's map is going to take him. but it's going to take him as long as he can go. uh going on a mile and a quarter so Those are the three that I really keyed in on as my top selections.
Speaker: same GQ. i Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead. No, I was I might put you on the spot. You had tweeted out about uh, um um I think it was siblings or... progeny that could go 10 furlongs.
Speaker: And I forget who it was, but their progeny was 40%. Yes. Two for five, was it? it was Yeah, two for five. Oh, really? Yeah, it was the Puma. I do think essential quality is going to be a good distance influence sire. I mean, he was the he won the Travers as well.
Speaker: obviously it's a super small sample size. So that's going to go down significantly over time. But I do think he is going to be. ah He's going to be a 15, 18. percent type of distance influence, I think, long term.
Speaker: Well, yeah you just... Bye. hit a nerve on me mentioning this essential quality that I don't even know what year it was where I i bet him in the derby. and He made a move like Jose Ortiz did in the last race today.
Speaker: Wait. But all of a sudden he hit that wall at the eighth point and at the eighth pole. and uh there went there went my wager on essential quality in the derby that year but No, so, yeah, that's all good stuff, and... um Uh...
Speaker: If you don't already know, Matthew's handle on X is... A great one. It's called... It's failed to menace. And it takes me back to. um if i If I had a short comment as my Twitter handle, I think it might be. never threatened, or all... Or our altered course. But no, it's a great way. How did you come up with fail Failed to Menace? i had a A friend of mine had an off -track thoroughbred.
Speaker: And the last note of his career was failed to menace. And that was always kind of a joke between the two of us. And so when I started a Twitter handle. which was not all that long ago. It was like 2021 or something like that.
Speaker: I just thought I was thinking, oh, I want to come up with something kind of smart. I don't want to just use my name. it's already it's always too many characters anyway and cuts it off so it's like ah And I just. spontaneously was like, ah!
Speaker: Fails and Menace, that'd be cute. and i it was available. And I was like, Oh, even better. I don't have to add like a water or an exclamation point or underscore or anything. I was like, Oh, great. Great. All right, cool.
Speaker: That's awesome. I love it. I love the story. Yeah, and Eric, we're actually probably 20 minutes ahead of time. so
Speaker: See, yell at me that we go long. and all the time Yeah, because I'm always blaming Eric for being too long. Here, I hardly talk, and now all of a sudden we're 20 minutes a ahead of schedule. Exactly. Thank you very much. I've been trying to tell you this for years now, but finally you see it. And thank you for that little dig about the Jose Ortiz ride today. I appreciate it. I was only alive for 10 grand. while you write If Jose Ortiz wins.
Speaker: I'm assuming Frank Miramonti might have been too because he called that horse from the backstretch. uh like he was a winner and i was i was actually in the gym i was watching on my phone listening And I'm like, hey, I got 10 grand. This is awesome. The horse can't lose.
Speaker: And then Jose decides to be, I read and try and like go in and heard the horse that he didn't have anyway. And then Javier. Bumps him, which I don't blame Javier. Anyway. so I hit the early pick five, so I can't be too upset. though so It wasn't a a total loss. GQ, speaking of ah winning bets, do you recognize Matthew's horse that he likes?
Speaker: Here are the two horse. Leading change? You remember that last race? I was with you. Oh, yes, yes. It was part of your cross -country pick five. Yeah, I don't want to start like ah rumors of illicit times here. We were in a hotel room together watching that. Yeah.
Speaker: Yeah, that was the fifth leg of the... yeah cross -country big five paid a lot too i forgot what it paid but it was like what seven or something thousand or something like that i think it was yeah six thousand maybe something like that yeah And I thought...
Speaker: ira was getting passed but he dug in and uh he didn't let me down so um anyway getting back to the travers And by the way, near misses, I tweeted out. the 1998 travers matthew i don't know if you go back that far with horses i'm i'm not sure your background too much other than uh what you told us tonight yeah But 98 Travers was miserable for me because I was a huge James Bond fan.
Speaker: ah Well, movie too, but I'm talking about The Trainer. and he had a horse barons who was probably my favorite horse if you had a favorite horse back in the 90s love that horse well he had raffy's majesty in the 98 travers and I was.
Speaker: a teenager i guess or about 20 at the time so i was not probably betting all that much money but I had a bet on Rafi's Majesty and... He was closing like the wind and kind of like today, he just didn't get up.
Speaker: But lost by, I think, a nose. I remember Tom Durkin, three noses on the wire. So anyway, yeah. Still painful. And I tweeted also about how I was just getting over a year and a half earlier.
Speaker: the Captain Bodgett loss in the Derby. When, uh... I said, I don't want to bash a jockey here, but Alex Solis was not one of my favorite jockeys after that ride. So anyway, getting back to this year's Travers, sorry for the digression.
Speaker: proven GQ right that I'm wasting the time. So yeah, a couple of interesting words. First of all, when I went through the Travers field, I just felt like every horse had a chance. There was not one horse I put a line through and said, they can't win.
Speaker: And generally, when I feel like that, I just... I have to try and beat the favorite. So in the pick five, I'm singling the first leg. I'm going to be narrowing the last leg. I'm not really going that deep any race. This is going to be my deep race. I'm going to try and beat the two favorites, Renegade and Golden Tempo.
Speaker: I actually like Golden Temple going into the Derby. And then for the second time in about five years, I listened to Outside Noise. The first time was with... um What was the Brad Cox horse? who lost to Medina Spirit, but then got... oh man And learn. So I love Medina Spirit that year. We were actually doing the pod, and that was all about Medina Spirit, and it was all about Mandaloon from February through the Derby.
Speaker: And I'm reading or listening to people who are supposed to know what they're talking about. And they're saying Mandaloon had some foot issues and no, or he didn't look good, whatever. it was Not foot issues. He didn't look good training. and i tossed the horse and that cost me a lot of money and then like this year I was using Golden Temple. I keyed Renegade, and I was using Golden Temple, and his foot, his hoof, no good, no good. I'm like, I'm not going to bet a horse who has a bad hoof going a mile and a quarter. And sure enough, he wins after I toss him. so And then i I figured, oh, he got a great setup in the Kentucky Derby. I'm not going to bet him in the Belmont. i Like you said, the price was insane, so I should have adjusted. and I did not.
Speaker: And he ends up winning that race and and ran very well. So I've tried to be cold and temp. Well, two back. I didn't exactly try and beat him in the Derby. I left him out. for that reason but trying to be the last time it didn't work I'm trying to beat him again. Maybe I'll get lucky. But like you said, the distance is great for him.
Speaker: Done nothing wrong. He's... Looking good, so I can't go passionately against him so much. But again, it's more that I think other horses are close to him, and he needs a trip, so...
Speaker: ah There's a bunch of them I'm going to use. I don't want to talk about all of them. I'm hoping the Ford, the Puma. his sire essential quality goes to 50 % on saying it in quick math. I wasn't even ah a professor and i can I can do that. I'm a social studies person, a history teacher. so
Speaker: Uh, it's pretty good math for me, but yeah, you can go from two for five to three for six. My only fear about the Puma is similar to what I said about Naomi's. A lot of people are picking this horse and it worries me. The price will still be good though. So I'm not as worried about that, but I thought the Puma ran well. I want to use the Puma in the Derby. He was actually gonna be one of my key horses and he obviously scratched out of the Derby. So last race was a Haskell and it was kind of a prep race. I think the connections even said that. It was a sloppy track. I'm really not that worried about it. And he ran fine. It's not like he ran badly. But I thought his Florida to Derby was really good. I thought he had a wide trip. I think Commandment was probably the best horse at that point.
Speaker: uh, in time and was that March or yeah, late March. So. To me, he ran a better race or as good, if not better, than Commandment that day. So yeah, the mile and a quarter is a question mark, but it's a question mark for a lot of horses. So the Puma would probably be my top pick. And the other horse I really want to use, which I know is going to sound crazy. is Ocelli or maybe Ocelli. I forgot how to pronounce it.
Speaker: Either one of you know, is it Oselle? Oh, Sal. All right, I was making him more Italian than he was. So anyway, I... I know it's silly he's a maiden and all that, but... Two back, the Ohio Derby.
Speaker: I just started. ran really well. Um, he He closed? And that was a race. If you go back and watch the Ohio Derby, I thought the pace was really strong. And I thought thought the race really set up for closers. And I thought he just made an early move into that race.
Speaker: And a horse made an early move into a really fast pace. I usually like Nixon, and he was wide too with that move. I kind of like him next time. And yeah, he ran like poop in the Haskell. So from there you can just toss him, but I'm just hoping that he didn't like the wet track.
Speaker: and Yeah, if he was like 5 or 6 to 1, forget about it. I'm not going to try him. But at 20 to 1 or higher, andm probably the longest shot on the board. I want to give him a try that he didn't like the um the the mud last time. And I think that'll... how Derby was his best race significantly of any race better than the Derby where he got a great setup to close. So I really thought he stepped forward there. So.
Speaker: I'm going to go with Nocelli here. Hopefully there's some pace. I don't know if there will be, but...
Speaker: uh you know if there's no pace i'll just be a little closer so maybe it'll work out so my my main horses if you will are four and six but i'm going deep here to try and meet the favorites I don't think we want me to talk about every horse in the field and go on for another 10 minutes. So Matt, is there anyone or Matthew, is there anyone we didn't talk about? Let me, let me bring up one horse actually for you. I'll put you on the spot here. The seven C strike who is going to be the third choice. Most likely in this race, put up a huge, huge speed figure in the colon last time. Wasn't the toughest field other than chief Wallaby and their arguments before the race by smart people. I know. I remember listening to David Aragona on his DRF podcast or on his video saying how he really thought that.
Speaker: Chief Wallaby was kind of telling off a little bit. And that might have been the case. So maybe he just didn't beat the toughest field. Probably used to be a figure. What do you think about him in this spot? Obviously, he didn't pick him as a top three horse, but is the distance the issue? The fact he didn't beat much? What are your thoughts? I think it's a good question. A combination of things for me, especially a five to one. I don't know.
Speaker: He's actually going to go off at that short of a price. I have a feeling maybe he's going to float up. David. who does our morning lines is outstanding but that feels like one where I could go up a little bit from five to one. Here's the thing. The Curlin just historically has not been a super productive.
Speaker: race for the Travers. Since VE day one back in 2014, if I'm not mistaken, no horse coming out of the Curlin has run better than sixth. in the Travers. um So that's just always. a a question mark and a red flag for me. Listen, you're talking to somebody who likes Scotland and Artorias the last few years. So is I'm trying to learn my lesson at some point. The other thing is...
Speaker: The speed figure, I'm a little curious just because it was the only two -turn dirt race that day. So when you start coming up with those figures, We'll see. And I also think that... Chief Wallaby, not only is he tailing off, I think he's a miler. My colleague, Kaylee Shapiro, who's very sharp.
Speaker: with physical handicapping. really from the get -go was like, listen, I love this horse. I love Bill Mott. This is a one turn mile horse. And I just think a mile and a quarter is not it. You're telling me, yeah, he put away Golfie up on the front end?
Speaker: You're dealing with Napoleon Solo now. This is a much tougher company than what we're dealing with. And the other thing is Mitch Shipman as a sire. I mean... We talk about those sire stats, Mitch Shipman's. a progeny going a mile and a quarter or longer. are two for 59.
Speaker: uh in their careers only three percent so I just don't love that. combination of things. If he was 15 -1? That'd be a lot more interesting or even 10 to one. That would be interesting. But at five to one, I just.
Speaker: I can't wrap my arms around a horse that i has a few red flags, in my opinion, that might stand in the way of him getting the winner's circle. Do you care about the six pounds he's adding or are you not a big weight guy?
Speaker: ah I've come around. I used to just dismiss weight. offhandedly And i've I've lost enough races to learn that maybe I should adjust my opinion on that. um And so I do think that's not insignificant.
Speaker: uh by any stretch uh but You know, theres there's some other reasons that I didn't like him on top of that, but that's just kind of icing on the cake too.
Speaker: All right. And if Peter Brandt's watching the show, he likes you a lot. I don't know if you, uh, right. Didn't you take away his words from Chad? Cause he kept running him in spots where he was. Yeah. Yeah. gozor and howway running with too much weight Yeah. yeah yeah and And just two other words. I'm definitely going to be using my pick five, the eight baby Vino, just real quick to back in the Pegasus. I know he didn't run against the toughest field, but he got a slow start. He also had a wide trip that day. I thought he ran really well. And yes, he got a very good trip last time. Maybe in the Haskell, the mud helped him as well.
Speaker: But I liked him two back, so I'm not going to hold. I'm not gonna... hold it against me got a really good trip last time so i'm going to use baby vino and i'm going to use probably silent tactic too again i'm trying to beat favorites so i don't mind going a little deep uh silent tactic ran really well last time against renegade
Speaker: He ah chased Chip Honcho, who I thought might be the only speed or lone speed, but Silent Tactic did, I don't know if you want to call it dirty work. I know that term's used a lot. and held better than Chip Honcho. I don't know how great he is anyway, but I thought silent tech ran well. And he hadn't run in a while, so he might have even...
Speaker: I... I shouldn't say he needed the race because I doubt Mark Cassidy is putting him in a Jim Dandy just to get a race in, but maybe he had the Travers in mind and that was, uh, that was the first step. So I'm going to use silent tactic. He's got tactical speed, no pun intended. So, uh, again, I'm, I'm pretty deep. I'm going to use the two that, um, that Matt talked about. I'm definitely going to use the four, the Puma. I'm definitely going to use the six Ocelli. I'm definitely using the eight Baby Vino. I'm using the 10 Silent Tactics. Basically, I'm using every even number horse here. So really even numbers. And I might throw a few odd numbers in as well. I'd say I'm going very deep in this race.
Speaker: As far as betting it though, if I do bet it vertically, I'm going to use a combination of the even number sources here. And I'm going to have to pick one to... uh keon i'm either gonna key the puma or sally or maybe both so i can see doing like four with CHEW! Six.
Speaker: Eat. 10. Maybe add one more. And and doing MS, the Puma. And then also doing the 6, Ocelli, with those same horses. 2, 4. 8 and 10. or something like that. And hopefully one of them, if not both of them come in the top two or three and I'll make some money.
Speaker: if i'm lucky so that's my thoughts there matthew i guess You're good on this race. GQ, you want to add anything else? ah Just so on sea strike. Bye. Do you think he's getting a lot of... ah love, I guess you could say, because The curling was run the day after... The Jim Dandy.
Speaker: And I know the track can change. I think there was rain overnight or whatever. But he actually ran it a fifth of a second faster than Renegade did.
Speaker: ah I'm with you guys as far as I... I just don't think his bloodlines are cut out for the 10 furlongs. Um,
Speaker: Okay. And especially, like you said, five to one, I think he's going to float up. as as well. yeah it's just it's it's a hard Yeah, it's just hard to wrap your arms around that. And I think that's the thing is as horse players.
Speaker: There's... Typically, always a price at which a horse becomes interesting. And there's a so there's a price at which a horse no longer becomes interesting. I can't tell you the number of times I've... like to horse on the morning line at a certain price, and then the tote opens.
Speaker: And I just kind of walk away from the race because I go, I'm not going to get anything close to that price that I want on this horse. And at that price, it's not a good bet anymore. So you know that we just have to be disciplined about that.
Speaker: And you know I always tell people the best bets you make are the ones you don't wager sometimes. like you know When you walk away from what could be a good opinion, but... but it's just not the right price for you. So, um yeah, I think C -Strike just kind of falls into that example of.
Speaker: yeah, there's a price at which that horse is interesting. It's just not five to one for me. And that's a really important point that Matthew made. And that's one of the things that made me a much better gambler and horse player.
Speaker: You know, a lot of times you study a race. don't know fall in love with a horse you really like like we're mean talking about horses that we like here And then you get to the price and it's like, wait a minute, I didn't really sign up for this. But a lot of times we're so stuck in our ways like, oh, I want to be right about this horse. So I'm going to stick with them. Like, for example, Naomi's in the first leg.
Speaker: I'm confident that horse is going to run well. And I think the horse is going to win. And I'm even okay about two to one, but the horse goes like. even money at one point is it like ridiculous that i'm not gonna suck up my pride and then all of a sudden the one horse is five to one i'm like there's no way yes i like neil miss better but i have to be smart about it and you really have to be willing to adjust and kind of like suck up your pride a little bit and I mean... Even the best handicappers are going to be wrong a lot of the time. It's a horse race. Anything can happen. So don't get too set in your...
Speaker: selection slash pick slash uh thoughts here because the price should determine pretty much everything when you're betting Anyway, sorry GQ. No, that's all right. You want to go to race 14 like we're at Yonkers here, 14 races? Not yet.
Speaker: Oh, no. let's Make sure we get to it now. Thank you. Go ahead. now As I always like to say, you know, but The baseball – Cooperstown Baseball Hall of Fame is filled with guys who failed seven out of ten times at the but at the plate. So, yeah, like you said, the best handicappers.
Speaker: um fail just as much. so All right. Do you want to spend another 15 minutes on C -Strike or we're good? No, no. I'm going to spend one more minute on the Travers.
Speaker: Uh... Only because since it's sponsored by DraftKings and since... ah um Matthew is an employee of...
Speaker: Now, I bet you can cover your ears on this one. i Since Eric... shared his bad beat of not betting Golden Tapu. I'll share my wonderful win. that I took advantage of the sister app. on DraftKings DK Horse. They had a $1 million dollar bonus.
Speaker: If your first win bet on a Derby horse of $10 or more. uh if you picked the winner then you shared a million dollar bonus with everybody else Who bet the horse? And I was lucky enough to make my bet on DK Horse.
Speaker: on golden tempo so i got some extra bonus money uh based on that so so i got more than the 23 to 1. That's good. Invite the Naira Betts guy on and tell him how you bet on another round. I have to throw This is my vacuums last time on Better Betting, but thank you. We all love hitting the winning bet. I don't care what platform you're on. it Hey, Naira Betts had a similar bonus, and I also dabbled in that. I am a proud Naira Betts account holder. We love that. All right, let's ah finish it up. ah I think we can do this in 11 minutes to keep it under an hour. um
Speaker: Okay. ah The pick five for Saturday at Saratoga, race 14. the final leg, the only non -graded stakes. And it's optional claim or $100 ,000 non -winners.
Speaker: ah One other than going a mile and a 16th on the turf. A field of 10 with a... Short -priced 6 -5 more line favorite, the 4. Your thoughts, Matthew?
Speaker: Yeah, this is one where I... Normally love to try to find a big price in the bailout race, but man alive does. the four That's how we love just really stand out over the field. I know sometimes those Monmouth speed figures can be a little bit questionable, but my gosh, I mean, just visually, that horse was so impressive.
Speaker: in debut for Phil Antonacci, who has Queen of Hawaii in the very first leg. I think kind of appropriate here in the final leg of it. But daughter of Justify could not have looked better. Super versatile running style, doesn't need to get to the lead, but really showed enough. to suggest the sports can kind of stay. in touch with the leaders if necessary. pulled away so easily. I love that we're not doing a crazy class jump into a stakes company already. We're just going into the kind of next level. We're going to take care of that. so For me, this one.
Speaker: honestly almost feels like a single to close out the the card. or the sequence, which is always a little scary as well. uh to start to to finish with a single but really does stand out over the field. so For me, the four just was really hard to get around. i i thought at the The seven alone time for Cherie DeVoe is a little interesting to maybe play with underneath um at ah at a little bit of a price. but I don't know. have Eric came up with something.
Speaker: better than this but yeah the four to me really stood out in this last race Well, I came up with something better, but it might not be right. So one thing that I love two -year -old race, well, this is a three -year -old race, so it's not a perfect example, but I love two -year -old races where a horse puts up a big figure. We saw that today in the Bolton, we're recording on Wednesday, ah the Bolton landing, right? That three horse whose name escapes me.
Speaker: ah Put up a huge speed figure walenors yeah yeah Yeah, and then I... Honestly, even though I had bets going I wasn't really paying attention to the race. i I only saw the stretch run So I'm not sure how the horse ran or if he had a trouble, but was nowhere to be found at the end. So sometimes when these young horses, and again, this is a three -year -old, but only race once, they put up a huge speed figure. Sometimes they sometimes they often get overbet.
Speaker: And I'm going to try and beat the four here. And maybe it's a fool's errand. The four runs back to the same speed figure. She's going to win easily, but... This is a horse that I'm going to play against based on one figure at Monmouth. I'll take a chance against it at a short price. So there's two horses I like here that I definitely want to use in Keon and then two other long shots that I'm going to throw in most likely a pick five because they're big prices. So the one I like the most is a two.
Speaker: ah The name is 3 -2 -G. It would have been easier. if She was a three horse, but the two, three, two G. So what do I like about the horse? Well, last race at this level, I thought ran very well. what Dylan Davis was carried out three to four wide on the first turn, three wide on turn two.
Speaker: And you're not going to win a race going three to four wide on the turf, generally speaking. So I thought that race. is I know much better than it looks, but I mean, you can see the wide chart, but if you look at that 76 speed figure.
Speaker: It could have easily been a lot higher than that. And I'm not a huge speed figure fan, especially on the turf races here. but So I think this horse is improving it coming off a wide trip. Now the two posts. Should save ground with Kendrick Carmouche. Yes, doesn't look like it has a lot of speed, but I think Carmouche will keep her close enough to the pace to save ground and hopefully find some room when they get to the stretch. The other horse you already mentioned briefly is a seven alone time for Sherry DeVoe, who was racing in stakes races last year. or earlier this year too as well, the Appalachian.
Speaker: and Yeah, didn't you? very well when you look at the finish but at least it was like attending a piece and it wasn't like She was just in the back of the field and got embarrassed the whole time.
Speaker: Uh, last race, uh, horrible clipped heels, steadied on the first and also I can just toss that last race. I wouldn't worry about that last race. So on a little of class relief here, last time she was in a race that was not a stakes race. Yeah, it was a maiden special weight, not an allowance. And was it fairgrounds, but still not terrible racing. And, uh, she ran fairly well to win by four lens. So this is a horse who I definitely want to include here. So I'm two seven, just real quick. The other two that I'm going to use.
Speaker: ah The Six Horse, a 20 -to -1 mermaid who also is racing at the same level as last time. Got claimed by, okay, if that's how you pronounce it, Cantramassi. and the horse first stopped the claim in this level. I thought it ran a lot better than it looks. That piece was really hot in in the... um race on eight August 8th. Sorry. It's hard for me to see the small font here. Got to get like a... magnifying glass i don't know if you guys ever heard of um oh what's his name
Speaker: John Conti. Do you guys ever know the name John Conti? I'm sure a lot of listeners do. So John Conti. was a guy who worked for OTB on Long Island, I think. Maybe New York City too, but he was like NASA OTB something. He was in a lot of horse contests.
Speaker: There was a TV show. It might've been even on animal planet where they followed like horse players. uh through contests like chris uh what's his name christian helmers was in it Um... I can't remember who else was in it but Oh, Matt Bernier was in it. I think that's how he got his break into the industry. And John Conti was one of the guys in it. He was an older guy. He since passed away. and May he rest. but
Speaker: he used to have and i've seen him in person like i would Went to the same bar. He used to hang out ah a little bit where you could bet the horses. And he had this huge magnifying glass watching. and I'm 25, 30, 35 years old. um Not that I'm laughing at him, but I'm like, oh, come on. He has to do that. That's so silly. And now I am right where he is. So anyway, ah the Sixth Mermaid.
Speaker: Was up on that really fast pace. Yeah, I'm doing the long shot 44 to one shot who ah who faded pretty badly as well. but Um, if there's not a ton of pace here, the six mermaid has a good chance, I think at, or.
Speaker: Good chance for the price. I mean, obviously it's not one of the more likely winners. And then the three new rows who had a wide trip last time. And I didn't think it was terrible to back. So I'm going to try new rows as well. So I'm.
Speaker: Really, 2 .7 mostly, and then 3 .6 would be the other horse I want to use. I'm basically going against all the favorites here. in this last leg. And as far as betting the race, What I'll do is I'm going to box those four horses because, again, if I'm beating favorites, I don't mind spreading. I'll definitely box those horses. I'll have extra with the seven, and I'll definitely have extra with the two with those horses.
Speaker: in exactas and triples as well. so I spoke a long time. I'll try and wrap it up there. Matthew, before we go back to GQ, is there anything else you want to add about the last race? You're basically just single to ah the four. You're fairly confident, and that's pretty much it.
Speaker: Yeah, I think it's going to be, I mean, we'll see what happens if scratches changes, change anything on the day of, obviously that goes without saying for all the races, but. uh yeah that four is pretty hard and also it's just sometimes it's the connections too like phil antinacci when he brings a horse like this up here like it's pretty well intended and they tend to fire their.
Speaker: their race and and In that regard, I feel a little bit more confident with a horse like that rather than maybe a lower percentage trainer. who had a horse maybe run a hole in the wind first time out. wow We'll see if they can back it up or not. Obviously, the track change from Monmouth up here is one that I don't take lightly. That is something that that is a little bit. factored into my analysis, but ah Yeah, it's going to be, listen, but the thing is.
Speaker: We talk about trying to beat Bookumdana. We talk about trying to beat Golden Tempo. We talk about trying to beat... you some of these favorites. So if I'm trying to beat two or three favorites in the sequence, I don't mind taking chalk maybe in the last race or even going.
Speaker: Chalk and Cherise Horse or something like that, the seven, like going 4 -7, because it's not still not going to be a huge ticket. And. I know I'm going to get a good price if at all if if I'm able to beat the favorites. in two or three of those other legs. No.
Speaker: Right. And as far as like vertically betting, if you like the four, that's fine. I personally do not in this spot and Matthew does. So if you're out there and you'd like the four, it's totally fine to bet the four. And if I'm betting an even money shot out.
Speaker: mostly put that horse on top. the The problem is I would think you'd have to beat like the second and third chalk. I would not want to use a favorite yeah and the second favorite and the third favorite. So if you like the four, but you don't like the one tax holiday or you don't like, and the 10.
Speaker: uh alibi there's a real big second choice i guess uh but if you can get prizes underneath and that's totally fine too obviously you know everyone's gonna have different handicap opinions Uh, but that's, that's not a bad approach either. If that's what you like. The good thing is I won't know if I'm right or not about this race. Cause I'll be in bed by the time they run the 14th race. but Hopefully I'll wake up and have a lot of money in my account, but we'll see. We love that. You want to wrap it up?
Speaker: Yeah, sure. So... ah matthew uh this is wet at the end it was when Eric sometimes goes over the the way he wants to formulate his pick five.
Speaker: um is a pick five Is the pick five typically something you you typically take a stab at, or what's your go -to wager? Yeah, it's a good question. So I... On big days like this, always. I'll always take a stab at a pick five or pick six potentially, especially with Englishman in the first leg potentially of this pick six ah that we have on Saturday. You know, that's a horse that's going to be a pretty heavy favorite. um And I think justifiably so. But anyway.
Speaker: The other ones I like to play on... Any day is honestly like a pick three. Like I love a $1 pick three. I love some of the closeout $3 late pick threes. that different tracks have. So those are always fun wagers that I like playing. Because I can usually play them on pretty low cost if it's a chalky sequence. Okay. you know, I'll play for a low cost ticket and I'll play it a bunch of times.
Speaker: And if it's a race is a sequence where I can get around a favorite, it's still not going to be that expensive. $18, $27 ticket, okay. And it might pay, I don't know, 400 bucks or something like that if it hits.
Speaker: That's great. So. you know those are the Those are the types of bets that I probably like to make the most. uh just kind of pick threes I'll dabble with some pick fours. I probably should play pick fours more than I do. honestly uh but a lot of times if i got knocked out of a pick five in the first leg i'm just salty for a while and then i don't get my act together in time to better pick four eyes so And then I'm like, all right, I got to do this victory. All right. i You know, salvage this sequence somehow. but um
Speaker: but yeah i you know and in these sorts of sequences i mean obviously eric was kind of I think. Yup. Very much so. you know hit the nail on the head with some of the stuff he was talking about with regards to the strategy. but It's really just about like...
Speaker: Honing your opinion, not using so many defensive horses. you know taking a stand against horses you know i' mean I'm against Bookum Dano, so he's... Off my ticket. I'm not going to use him and... the The second and third choice it just doesn't make any sense. So. you know if finding those sorts of races where you you can take a stand against the horses is the key to any sequencing. Obviously for a retail player, it's great to find a single or two to keep a ticket.
Speaker: at you know 54 cost but you know, in these big days, I don't mind doing a $72 ticket, a $96 ticket, you know, something maybe. a little bit more expensive if it's the difference between me hitting and not hitting ah a ticket. and you know, maybe throwing an extra long shot. into you know something like the ballerina. where I think we said, yeah, Liz, you could go five, six deep in that sort of a race and still, you know, maybe be fishing for the winner. um you know it's always a lot of fun to do it and it's definitely a sequence I like to play personally on on Big Saturdays.
Speaker: Gotcha. well um I'm going to say my thank yous in and then I'll let Eric finish it up. thanks again matthew for for joining us uh again everyone he uh is the content producer for the naira bets And follow him, if you don't already, on X. He is failed2manis. So, Eric.
Speaker: finish it up but with any thoughts you might have. Sure. And ah thanks again, Matthew, for coming on. and And for the listeners out there, Matthew, I know post tickets, I don't know, is it all the time or on a daily basis? in iowa and i I'm not usually one to look at people's tickets too much. But I have noticed that you post tickets that aren't that expensive and they... kind of come in a lot, a lot more than other people who publish tickets. So he does a really good job. He's pretty sharp. One reason we wanted him on the show and he was.
Speaker: Extremely kind to come on. He was actually going to come on last week and it was his birthday. So belated happy birthday. And he was pretty much willing to come on anyway, but we didn't want to do that to him. So ah really nice. He's up in Saratoga. He can be eating at Hattie's or going out on town, but he spent an hour of his Wednesday night hanging out with us. So we really appreciate it. and For those of you out there, maybe make some bets on Naira Bets as a thank you to Matthew for coming on the show.
Speaker: So we thank you again. GQ, thanks for moderating. Good luck this week at Timonium. I'm pretty sure I'll be at Timonium on Friday and Saturday. Looking forward to seeing the King of Timonium in action.
Speaker: And I will be standing there like waving my hands and trying to get your attention as you're talking. so We'll see how well you concentrate. But anyway, thanks, everyone. We hope you enjoy the Travers weekend. Good luck with the betting.
Speaker: See you next week. Cha -cha!
