Transcript
Speaker: Hello, and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium. Gary Quill and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
Speaker: Hey, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the king of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ. How be you? Doing great, Eric. a good week so far. I probably would have been doing better if I would have.
Speaker: maybe put some money on A few Fairhill. Horses coming off of layoffs, betting. a trainer that uh nobody's ever heard of but that's neither here or there yeah the only comment i have about that that I haven't seen anyone mention. Everybody's going nuts about.
Speaker: The double. um paying $12 on a horse that paid $37 and then a horse that paid $6. my My point is the fix, if you can fix horse races needing horses to win.
Speaker: um just solely by a trainer or some special hay Um. they They have no idea that those races are going to be run back -to -back in order to...
Speaker: you know better double that you know if if they knew the horses were really live and um They were going to get good good odds on them. Then, yeah, that's probably why they pounded the double, not knowing that the Monmouth.
Speaker: polls uh weren't as big in order to reflect the halfway decent. one But that's all. That's my only comment after the fact, after social media and, you know, we got investigations and then they had. a horse that was entered at uh Mountaineer. and a horse that was entered somewhere else at Presque Isle
Speaker: and like everybody was amazed that the horses weren't scratched and The horses, we're going to go off at one to nine. and Magically, both horses were eventually scratched. so I'm sure more to come about this, but...
Speaker: Um... That was just my thing that everybody missed the fact that. you know when you know The condition book shows a list of races. you know one through 14 or 15 or whatever and they pick the ones that have the most entered but that doesn't mean that's going to be the sequence ah of the races The racing secretary is the one that picks that out, obviously.
Speaker: for like uh they want the the most interesting races in a pick five or you know the feature race to be part of that so Speaking of which... um So before I go on to... to go through what we're gonna.
Speaker: uh take care of is saturday's saratoga Late pick five, which includes grade one. Christophe Clement which used to be the sword dancer, but in his honor.
Speaker: They renamed it. um do you Do you want to comment on anything before we... we hit hit the road with the this late pick five Saturday. honestly not really you need to go it's not even that it's um a little bit of a hurry but it's okay no it's more uh I was away, as you know, last weekend. I was in Pittsburgh trying out for the ah Pirates. ah
Speaker: but they made some bullpen upgrades, so I didn't make it. But no, I really wasn't watching much, so I saw all the chatter and all, but I don't really have too strong an opinion. or An informed opinion, so no real... Input.
Speaker: Well, um I mean... um What I can tell you, and not unless they've loosened up over the past. maybe five or more years um Being a resident of Maryland, I've gone to Fairhill a number of times. and uh the One of the times I...
Speaker: I went to interview Graham Motion. When he had divining rod in the greatness. And. It's kind of like ah an exclusive closed community. You know, you just can't...
Speaker: Bring your horses in and say, oh, I want to work my horses on the track. Maybe maybe you can in 2026. you know six years ago or whatever You couldn't. I mean, it was an exclusive piece of property, an expansive piece of property where the people who owned barns there.
Speaker: um If someone new wanted to come in and build... and purchase that parcel of land. Everybody else who was already there was almost like a homeowners association type thing. They had to approve them.
Speaker: So that's... that's my one head scratcher that these Trainers who... aren't well known and seem to only have a handful of horses.
Speaker: You know, what was their connection? Do they have a connection to other? Trainers already at Fair Hill. Or maybe someone who listens knows these days better than i that you can just van your horse in because you're in the area and you can.
Speaker: you know work them out at fair hill but that that's all i'll say for that Questions that. I don't have answers. so uh without further ado uh we'll move on to the analysis of As we always do, Saturday's late pick five at a not -so -random track. We'll do Saratoga once again because...
Speaker: It's interesting and a lot of people. like to bet Saratoga, so that's that's why we kind of do. a popular track. Late pick five starts in race eight on Saturday, which is August 15th.
Speaker: um race 8 through 12 and the first race race 8 in the late pick 5 sequence is a six furlong event for Maidens. two year old maidens There's a field of 10. Signed on.
Speaker: and I guess a lukewarm one -on -one favorite. is the two horse card man at 72. Um... We have a Nine of them. uh making their maiden voyage around the saratoga oval or there very first race. The only one who has run.
Speaker: twice in fact is the seven decimation. I... Eric, before we started recording, you said you really had nothing. I i did some research into Petri and all that stuff. but on the surface is there anything that You. feel um based on i guess either the morning line or workout reports that you may or may not have already
Speaker: Yeah. ah I'm not a huge fan of first -time starter races. I've actually done pretty well in them, so maybe I should be. But, yeah, I look at... the workout reports the problem with the workout reports drf at least is that Everyone kind of has access to it now. So where you used to have a little edge, now you kind of lose that edge.
Speaker: And I feel like the horses get good reports. Tenz yet bet heavily, so they don't win. enough to justify the short prices a lot. So kind of negate some of the benefit, but yeah I can use it to eliminate some horses other than. Horacio Depaz, who gets negative reports on every first -time starter and wins all the time anyway. So just a few things in this race. I don't have much. A few of the horses I'd be interested in looking at, because it's not just workout reports I'm looking at. The one, McCoy.
Speaker: ah Sherry DeVoe. With first time starting two -year -old sprinting on the dirt. at naira tracks is three for seven so it's a tiny sample but she's done very well uh you got jose ortiz so The one would interest me, obviously, Vekoma. The sire, everyone knows, or most people know, is very... Hot Sire, 24 % first.
Speaker: out win with two -year -olds. The three QB rocket might interest me. Just because it's Brian Cox, of course, Iran's going to be out, so we'll see where the jockey is. They just paid, I think that's a million, but it might be more than a million. I can't really say. No, that's $199 million. Wow, so they paid about $2 million for this three.
Speaker: uh the workouts look fast i did not see them uh they're at churchill but i'm assuming this horse is okay. Now, the fact that David only made him four to one on the morning line tells me that maybe he's going to be a little cold for a $2 million dollars purchase. so We'll see. The six Dallas star, I did watch the last workout. It was on the XBTV workouts.
Speaker: look pretty good to me i don't know what i'm looking at that much but look pretty good to me another really expensive horse who i have my contacts in and with them i can't read really small print So it looks like $900 ,000 they paid. $900 ,000. Look at that. I got it right. Now, we're not Dallas Stars fans, and they tend not to win in the playoffs ever, so maybe this horse won't.
Speaker: you know We'll choke during crunch time here. But no, um Todd Pletcher is very good. 23 % with... ah First timers, two -year -old sprinting on the dirt, only 148.
Speaker: ah roi so he doesn't get bet The other horse that interests me a little bit was the eight. who i watched his last work and i was very impressed with the eight demo van his uh last work And there's a horse who they also paid a million dollars for. That's the theme in this race. The dam. who i can't read but i think it says tempers
Speaker: Tempers rising. Thank you. You're like my reading coach here. Do you want me to be your reader? Just cue me up and I'll ah spit it out. Thank you. Thank you. She's two for two with first time stars. So she's had two horses to run. They both won. This is Damavand's Dam. So maybe it'll be three for three. And this is a horse that's a half to Owen Almighty who I thought ran. dynamite in the Kentucky Derby. That lightning pace of the Kentucky Derby was the only horse on the pace to hang around. So the eight.
Speaker: Very good. I guess, breathing, if you will, i ready to win early, all that. So the eight I like. And the 10, Vakoda, who I know you said you mentioned or or we've texted and you liked. There's another one where I watched the workout. And again.
Speaker: I don't want to just go with what I'm watching because I'm far from an expert on workouts, but this horse was hard held as... The horse he was working against was going all out. I didn't write who he worked against. I don't think it was anyone who ran before.
Speaker: And the other horse, all out, couldn't go by this horse. It was hard -held. Now, maybe he was running against a you know crummy horse, but... this trainer. The Rose or however you pronounce it. was the assistant to Tom Amos, who was very good with young horses as well. So I kind of like the 10 Vokoda, and that name I like.
Speaker: Do you know who Mick Vokoda is? was gq No, I do not. Well, if you're an Islander fan, you would know. That's what I was ready to say. It must be a hockey club. Nick Riccardo was the enforcer for the Islanders in the late 80s, early 90s.
Speaker: uh so he was a fan favorite i think he scored about one goal a year back then you can have guys who Literally did nothing but fight. Now you got to be able to do other things to play in the NHL. But yeah, he was a a fighter. So if you're a hockey fan, maybe the six Dallas Stars and the 10 Mick Vokoda exacta.
Speaker: It's for you, but no, seriously. So based on what I've seen, I would be an 810 here with the 136 as my others. But again, it's a lot of guessing slash using statistics, which I hate to do. I'll look at the workout reports. I don't know. If I play the pick five, I'll probably have to spread here where he sucks because most people will. So if you have something better.
Speaker: go with it i'm not going to talk about how to bet the race because i really don't think i'm betting it So GQ, do you have anything you want to say on this race? yeah what what i'll do is um touch on some some of these horses based on The research that I did on the bloodlines. Excellent ah I kind of went...
Speaker: Heh. Took the wind out of my sails with the 10 when I started looking at the pedigree and This is a homebred for Roy's Mansour.
Speaker: And... ah The damn AP Pepper. Um, Has thrown five five other uh falls. They've all won. for the six or six figure earners you figure oh good Good stock, good board lines.
Speaker: All five. Have. spent their careers racing it. Turf Paradise Canterbury Downs. Zia Park Sunland Park.
Speaker: and Emerald Downs. So that tells you one thing. Maybe we're stretching it with this. particular damn or I don't know if Mr. Mansoor has ever... brought a horse East.
Speaker: and in order to run it, especially Saratoga. Maybe when... He turned. this one over to the The people who, as they say, break the babies, get them into racing shape or whatever. And they said, um hey, Roy's. ah This one that you sent us.
Speaker: This one's going to be a pretty good one. So... ah Probably um he contacted a few people, you know, set them up with. the Tom Amos, Kenan LaRose.
Speaker: and maybe the rest is history um so that's the only Yeah. he's more of a midwest southwest guy and everything this dam has thrown you know has been durable but uh Not, not, not! competing on the the top stages so uh i i kind of went a little cold now the A.
Speaker: Dama band, as you had said. um the The actual, the the dam actually ran forth in the Kentucky Oaks behind I... She on. She dares a devil. That was the Swiss kind of her year. um and uh So, as you had said, the Pretty precocious bloodlines since ah the... half sibs have uh done well in their debut so
Speaker: I may have shifted over to the eight and It makes sense. Since David, you know, they're Pletcher, that's a Pletcher runner. Who's nine to two and.
Speaker: I guess. I guess the shine. has tarnished a bit on flight line babies If... this uh david thinks this one dallas story the six is going to go off around eight to one Um...
Speaker: i mean the dam was a multi multi -graded stakes winner um But yet. She's only thrown one winner out of four others.
Speaker: And that one has won twice going long on the turf. and tap it as a sire. um maybe as As all the talking heads like to say about horses, they don't...
Speaker: ah runners they don't like in their debut. I'm going to take a wait and see approach on this one. That's the one that like I wouldn't bet this with your money.
Speaker: ah Type of art. thing So, but... So I think I would probably. be uh Very lukewarm. using the 10 ah But because of the good signs that...
Speaker: The horse shows up here at Saratoga in that turf paradise. And. again the eight diamond van And I'm kind of liking... um The five, believe it or not. I think the five, I like the progression of.
Speaker: ah the workouts. um 10 to 1 morning line. ah And the fact that even though Chad Summers. is Ofer at Saratoga.
Speaker: I mean, he's 21 % with his two year old, so he knows how to work with two year olds. um this one has any type of ability may maybe maybe That one gets in the way. I think I'd i'd be 8, 10, 5 there.
Speaker: Um, You ready to move on? or you won now Let's go to a race where I have some opinions here. A couple in a row now. All right. same Second leg of the late pick five on Saturday at Saratoga is race nine, the one and one half mile turf event, grade one.
Speaker: Christoph Colman turf. which was formerly the Sword Dancer. Field of seven going postward. And. um I was kind of surprised and i'll I'll give you kudos. We had shared our. ah thoughts on what the morning line might be and you nailed this one that A horse that ran third.
Speaker: Behind. Two others who were in this race. is the three to one morning line favorite and that's the six minaret station to Is this the horse that you like? Or explain to to us.
Speaker: why you you believe David thinks. Minaret Station will take the lion's share of the money. Well, I'm not going to take credit yet because even though you say that we're guessing when we do this what the morning line will be, to me, we're guessing what...
Speaker: the morning light should be and what it. we'll go off at the horses and we argue about that i don't care it's not we're not trying to guess the morning line odds makers mindset we're trying to guess what the public's going to do So. Well, then we're... then we're we're trying to predict
Speaker: The post -time odds. Get about what the morning line is. Exactly. Well, no, the post the morning line is trying to predict what the post time odds are. Correct. But as you know. David Aragona is the closest thing to being... Absolutely correct. If you go to any other track.
Speaker: that That theory is not not relevant. Correct. All right. So anyway, let's let's take a look. Three of these horses, we actually covered them on our show a few weeks back.
Speaker: come out of the Bowling Green. It was a six -horse field, but really only three horses took money. It looked like a three -horse race on paper. and We had a little argument that day. You thought Fort George would be the favorite, and I did not.
Speaker: We also had an argument over who would win the race. and We were together at Monmouth, I think, watching that. That was the sequence that I did very well on. so ye I have to thank old crazy bone and Flavian Pratt for stopping riding. If you remember old crazy bones right before the wire and then almost got beaten, it would have cost me. uh about eight thousand dollars if we got beat so that was good but anyway uh so Out of that race, you have the three Old Crazy Moan, you have the five Fort George, and you have the six Minaret Station. and
Speaker: um Out of those three horses, I prefer Minaret Station. then Fort George, and then Old Crazy Bone last, even though I liked him the most. Old Crazy Bone was the lone speed in that race. um I honestly didn't love the field there, but all crazy one was the speed. He got a very easy trip up front and.
Speaker: I don't want to say he almost lost because I really do think Pratt stopped riding. And if he didn't, he probably would have won fairly easily. Well, maybe not fairly easily, but he would have held on better than it looked. So therefore, I don't love him. And i I know the argument for Fort George. I don't want to take away your thunder, so maybe I'll wait to talk about him.
Speaker: But. To me, there was really no pace in that race. Minaret Station closed, and to me... Minaret Station probably ran the most impressive race to close into zero pace. I think there will be more pace in this race. There can't be much less pace in this race. I also think Minaret Station has much more upside being the lightly raced.
Speaker: horse ah So to me, out of those three, I'd i'd much prefer Minaret Station, assuming they're similar priced. If Minaret Station goes off a crazy nine to five or something, now we're talking something different. But assuming the morning line is correct, even though he's favored, I would still prefer Minaret Station over those two horses. however There are two others that I like here. possibly better or as much as minaret station which i'll go over but gq out of those three horses um Yeah. I kind of know the answer, so I don't want to ask you the question. because It's kind of dis -
Speaker: what's the word disingenuous and i don't know what you think but i'll ask it anyway out of those three horses Is there any one particular one you prefer out of the others? Is there anyone you don't like? So talk about those three or any of those three quickly. Go ahead.
Speaker: Well, for those who... who Did listen to when when we went over the handicapping of of this race, the Bowling Green. My question was...
Speaker: Why is... ah why are they there or Fort George, they're not bringing this horse over into the state. for the Bowling Green.
Speaker: There's a bigger... Prize. ahead of them. And Saturday is that bigger prize. It's the grade one. Fort George. Had to do the dirty work.
Speaker: Meaning... Had to. Keep... Old Crazy Bones somewhat honest. and press the pace as much as he could.
Speaker: Might have to do it again because I don't know. i i Yeah. Who a - Who else is going to go out with me? Crazy bone. I don't see... Anybody else? Maybe the one horse ancient in Egypt, which I'm sure both of us will talk. talk about. um But.
Speaker: I see crazy buttons going to the front and trying to do the same. I don't see Crazy Bone getting the additional... um eighth of a mile this time.
Speaker: And... Another reason why, even though I agree with you with minaret station was probably the most impressive in that race. Look at... Since he's come off of the layoff.
Speaker: Ran them all. He was fifth by four and a half, closed like a freight train to lose by one. All right, so they give him another extra 16th of a mile. He's fifth by three and a half. Closes. Loses by left ben less than a half.
Speaker: We go even further My own three eights. closes very impressively to lose by a half. Is this the kind of horse that... If they ran around the track five times, he'd be closing in the last 100 yards and still not get there. No.
Speaker: And so why are you saying that? Because he's going by those horses after the wire or at the wire. Oh, so you do believe in gallop outs. No, it's not the gal about. Listen, I'm not a Galabao fan because...
Speaker: I'm racing GQ in a race. The race ends. I win by three. Yards. And then I just slowed down and GQ decides I'm going to keep going. And then it like, Oh, he's a Gallup out champion. Hold on. Hold on. Okay. I'll give you that.
Speaker: But I can guarantee you, if you go back and look at those two Churchill down races. He probably galloped out in front of everybody else. It's what I look at, and I think this is actually important watching replays, is at the finish.
Speaker: Not. If he goes by him necessarily, but at the finish, is he gaining where if the race went another two or three feet, he would have gone by or is he not gaining and he's just running neck and neck like he caught up and then he's just not going to go by it looks like. So I look to see how at the wire they're finishing and if that horse going by now. It doesn't mean that...
Speaker: where it's automatically going to be a winner next time because it's going by one time but that tells me that the horse is fine going by horses, if that makes any sense. Right. but That that's the only reason why I didn't wouldn't want to take the uh ah short price you know on on this one because that's how he's starting to look like here.
Speaker: So that' that's just my my point of view. and And the weird thing is... Everybody will say, oh, weight doesn't matter. Weight doesn't matter. Yeah, I somewhat agree. But still, I think it's worth pointing out. that Minaret Station adds four pounds.
Speaker: based on that last race. um Old Crazy Bone. Not adding in any weight. and Fort George adds two pounds, not that.
Speaker: All that's going to matter. But you know what? Back in the day. They used to run. handicap races and handicap races were because Kelso was so good he had to carry 139 pounds and other horses had to carry 120. in order to try to make it even so Is today's handicap we're saying, I don't care about how much weight a horse is carrying. It doesn't matter. well you know what maybe at one point it did and when you're going a mile and a half
Speaker: It may matter. i'm not I'm not saying two pounds, four pounds is going to matter. but you know I just wanted to point that out. Um. I'll let you take the lead on.
Speaker: the one force ancient egypt all say to lead in on it is I thought maybe this one would be the favorite, but then the more I looked. You know me, I hate to... you use three -year -olds first time facing elder But the last two races were very impressive. And guess what?
Speaker: Takes off nine pounds. So... I'll let you go. yeah and Oh, of there there is another foreign horse in here. in addition to what Fort George was, and that's the sixth.
Speaker: sir survey which i don't know if you'll get to but Um... The. the brisnet numbers that i see for um uh those races across the pond. are the best of those three.
Speaker: For what it's worth. So you tell me. why you like or dislike ancient Egypt. all right i i like the euros here uh a good amount I'll start with Ancient Egypt because if I had to pick a horse on top, that would be my pick. That's the one horse, again, Ancient Egypt.
Speaker: This is a horse who last race ran terrific. It was a race that You want to be in the back or further back. This horse was chasing and kind of going after, attacking, dueling, whatever. A three -to -one shot in the race who finished well back, I think last, but faded to the back of the field.
Speaker: And the two of them were way ahead of the rest of the field. like They were really moving there. And this was nearly held on. And that was extremely impressive. Yes, it was only against three roles. It was in a ah group one over there. in France at Longchamp. So to me, this horse ran a great race, is improving.
Speaker: I don't understand the jockeys here. There was DJ Egan, there was DE e Egan, and now it's DE Egan. Is he the same jockey as one of them? or I have no idea Prisoner of Ernie says D. Egan. Oh, well.
Speaker: Two and three back, he was ridden by... D .J. Eden. Last race, D .E. Egan, and now it's, I think, David, but de just D .E. Egan. So I don't know. He might have been one of those two.
Speaker: I think he's a Europe. I'm pretty sure he's an English jockey. So maybe he was DJing and running them in Europe and Ascot. I don't know. But regardless, um I like the one a lot here. Like you said, there's really not a ton of speed. And sometimes that European speed doesn't transfer over because they run slower early in Europe. But I think the one should have tactical speed if not being on the lead here if you can want. So I definitely like that.
Speaker: a again the race he's coming out of. I loved how he ran and I don't really love this field per se. So I definitely like the one and then the seven survey or survey. I think he pronounced it survey. Uh, and the, um...
Speaker: On the replay, but I can't remember. This is the one through last race, save ground. but closed into a race where speed held. So last race at Saratoga for the Seminoles, grade two, Glens Falls.
Speaker: The horse who was on the lead was 19 to one. The horse who was second in the race was 16 to one. And they held on for second and third, and this horse ran them down. Now, is this a tougher field? Yes.
Speaker: but this was Ran very well. and Didn't break well last race either, but broke fine two back. So, oh, I'm sorry. Three back, I mix up races, sorry. Three back May 3rd for Serby the 7.
Speaker: ah They had a blindfold in the gate over in Europe, and the horse broke horribly, but then broke fine at Ascot on June. so And last race, I think broke okay. Not like sharp, but wasn't like terrible break. So I'm not that worried about the break. The problem with this horse is it doesn't have a lot of speed, but...
Speaker: At the same time, where there might not be a ton of pace maybe there's a little more pace i don't think it needs like ah a lightning pace you're not going to get that but i definitely like the seven so i like the one ancient egypt probably the most especially uh for the price Then the six and seven I like. That's Minaret Station, Servi. If I used any other hordes, it would be the four on the five. I'm sorry, Fort George. You made the case for, I won't repeat, but.
Speaker: Probably had to come out of his game. I said last time we talked about it, one thing I didn't like about the horse was the jockey who every race in Europe ran like three or four wide. Well, guess what? In a six horse field that was spread out, managed somehow to go four wide in a six horse field early. So great, great job there. But if I had to use or want to use another horse, it would be Fort George. So I'm going to pick five. I'll probably go one, six, seven. And depending on the other legs, I could add in the five. And I'm going to try and beat.
Speaker: old crazy bone and and uh the chad brown the four horse who yes some people would argue hey pratt's going to the four therefore he likes the four better well He might've got kicked off all crazy bone. And even if not, I don't really care about that. As you know, because we don't know why riders choose who they do, who ended the race late, who has agreements with who. So I'm not worried about the, uh, the jockey switch there and, uh, probably back, but old crazy bone will not have, I read as he's out for the weekend. So we'll see who he picks up. So that's what I'm doing in this race. Uh,
Speaker: You know, as far as like vertically betting, as far as winning the race. It really depends on the odds, but... If I like the favorite and the third favorite, and you know I don't know how much I'm going to bet this race. but Um... Most likely I won't bet the raise vertically. If I did, I would lean on the one at five to one and I'd key him. So I might bet him to win. I might bet him, you know, an exact a one with five, six, seven, and an extra one with six, seven.
Speaker: Uh, so I have it a little more with the six and seven, the one, and then I might do something like a triple similar one with five, six, seven, and an extra one, six, seven. I'd even add the one on top a little extra, and that's what I'd probably do here if I bet vertically.
Speaker: Take a stand on the one. Assuming, again, morning line is accurate. If the one goes to three to one, five to two, then I'd probably lean towards a six or seven or something like that is my key. But that's what I'm thinking this race. So we're going too long or I'm going too long. So if you want to wrap it up, feel free. Otherwise, when you're ready, I'm ready to go on. Just going to wrap it up for everybody who's.
Speaker: Keenan on Pratt. going to the four there's Four letters, Y -C -H -A -D. Chad. No other reason. Or Chad can go with Irad if you wanted to.
Speaker: Well. I know Pratt's written that horse, but... Irad's on the shelf. irads on the shelf maybe well he didn't know that but they didn't know that he's available Yeah, well, hey, I tweeted something out about that. each of His agent should have been all over this. So what happened today? i I stopped watching the races today. Today is Wednesday. And I did stop watching him, but...
Speaker: Jose Ortiz, I think, won 100 races today. and Franco won the one or two others, I believe. Actually, Luis Saez has got to win. Actually, who won race eight? Oh, the one who I didn't really care for anyway is a short price. Junior Alvarado. Okay. Good thing I didn't bet. I saved money. ah And now they're up to the last race, which I don't think I'm going to win either.
Speaker: All right, so back to race nine. the I just... wanted to inform everyone um of a few things about servi the seven horse It's not a horse, it's a mare.
Speaker: She's running against the boys, which she has done a few times in in her past. Also, I want to point out, boy, I guess they... They just breed them differently in Ireland than they do here in the good old USA, you know, because.
Speaker: yeah or Our Kentucky breads just can't run. It, you know. uh our best horses we we can't run them back in two weeks my god they'll fall apart they they don't have the stamina you know this horse is running you know a mile and a half mile and a quarter or whatever What point what What I'm pointing out is it's a.
Speaker: it's a The mare, and of course mares, the females are supposedly but more delicate, even more delicate than their male counterparts. know She ran at Glen Falls on August 2nd.
Speaker: And I count my fourth grade math says that was 13 days ago come Saturday. Even more incredible. She worked out in between! She worked out on August 9th.
Speaker: Went four furlongs on the turf. So. I don't want to hear this crap that... our horses oh it's too too much on them they can't run back in uh Two weeks.
Speaker: Yeah, I know why. It's because they're not trained that way. Just like our... human athletes are supposed to be bigger and stronger. But yet um guys 50 years ago could throw. 300, 400 innings.
Speaker: in a in a season, and now guys, oh, man, you threw 90 pitches. You better come out. It's crazy. ah but ipress I digress. Somewhere Alan Jerkins is smiling. about this.
Speaker: thank you he's looking for way to ride the horse too or uh Paula kind of Bruno to ride the horse. Okay. All right. So um I failed to say I'm officially five, six, one.
Speaker: uh in race nine All right. So moving on to the. Middle leg of the late pick five on Saturday at Saratoga. uh we have uh five and a half for a long turf event it's the $200 ,000 Galway Stakes.
Speaker: for three -year -old Phillies. ah eight going to uh the post there's one mto and i checked the weather and should be nice so uh this one shall stay on the turf.
Speaker: Feel of 8, the... Number six horse. uh mana loha is the three to one morning line favorite. Eric, tell me about what you're thinking here.
Speaker: All right. I'm putting in some bets for the last race on Wednesday. My to one shot wins and I don't have it. It'll be because of you. ah This is a race and I'm actually thinking of singling.
Speaker: It's an interesting race because when you look at the favorites. They make. Could be good, people consider them, and I can see why people would like them, but they also have question marks. The six mo lower ah Mona Loa, if that's how you say it. you already ah mentioned.
Speaker: but this horse Has only the one turf sprint and I thought i got a very good trip to save ground at Woodmine and win that five for a long sprint, but it was our first ah Start so it wasn't a bad effort by any means did the job We had a good trip though.
Speaker: Came back off a layoff this year, June, and ran seven and a half furlongs. Kind of like ran off. I didn't watch the replay, I'll admit, but it looks like it just kind of ran off and distance might have been a little too far. In the last race, ran on the synthetic up in Woodbine.
Speaker: and dominated that field with an easy lead so could this horse be really good yes but And I think last we were talking about a horse that ended up winning a race. And I said, I don't like taking short horses, short prices on horses who have things their own way. And you got to take them back to the short price.
Speaker: Again, maybe she's really good and she wins. I wouldn't doubt it, but... I'm not taking this horse at three to one personally. And then Cadenza, the second choice at seven to two, that's the five horse. I mean, I know it's a class drop. I know she's been running in graded stakes company. I just have not been that impressed with how she's run. I thought the May race at Aqueduct.
Speaker: They take the alarm. or something like that. I can't read it. I thought that race was a decent race for her and she won. But since then, I mean, again, I know it's class really. So if you'd like the five cadenza, I can totally understand why, but I just feel she saved ground last time. She was no match for the top two and someone had to come in third and it happened to be her. So I'm going to play against those two horses and go elsewhere here. Before I go on, is there anything you wanted to ah say here about anyone or my thoughts? saying I just want your opinion who. Who is going to get to pick up Mountain on the favorite? Manolo, since I read, will be off his mount. Oh, geez, you're putting me on the spot here. Johnny V, Tyler Gafleon, Jose already has a mount. Luis Saez already has a mount. I mention those two because they ride for Cassie. Junior Alvarado, possibly.
Speaker: uh that's that's my guess but i don't know i didn't really think about it you put me on the spot there so Maybe junior. It'll be funny with Irad off. or on these horses that have low odds um it'll be interesting interesting to see if they actually go off.
Speaker: at higher odds, which I'm sure they probably will. because it's not i read Maybe. Maybe. So anyway, I guess you were done by the fact you tailed off there and kind of paused. No, I didn't know if you were done no oh i didn' with your analysis. No, no, I was trying not to hog the spotlight there. Oh, okay. So anyway. Or go ahead and Google. So ah I'll just throw in.
Speaker: ah The one that I like is the five horse. uh cadenza Alright. second choice seven to two nothing earth shattering i just think you know running behind sci -fi and sapphire beach um even though it was a distance third.
Speaker: uh And there's a lot of speed. here in this race or tactical speed. And. cadenza kin and has sat further back and made one run. uh to be uh victorious so That's where I'm going to land, Cadenza.
Speaker: I also like the three or the seven, if you weren't going to talk about those. and I mean, I was. If you want to, I will. You go ahead.
Speaker: All right, so. i guess we disagree on cadenza there although i don't have a strong anti -condensin feel. so I might single this race, and it would be Triskelion, if that's how you pronounce it, the seven horse.
Speaker: This is the worst one I'm kind of high on here. came off a layoff in june and ran pretty well contesting a pretty strong pace ah was pressed by a Seven to one shot him, came in sixth, and then...
Speaker: That ran really well off the layoff and then goes into, I guess, similar race here, ah ungraded stakes and ungraded stakes race. overnight sink, whatever you want to call it. And it all ran really well. First of all, was the outside post and kind of broke out. I don't think that'll be a problem because it has not been a problem in the past, but she saw that open space and broke out. So that probably hurt her. ah They were three across the track. And while speed held a little bit in that race, she was dueling the even money shot, a seven to one shot. And I thought she ran ah a bang up race to win that one. So I'm really high on her. And I think she's just getting better and better.
Speaker: And the price is right for me, 5 to 1 rating in that range. So I'm on the 7 here. And since I'm trying to play against the 5 and 6, although I know they can win, the other three hoarders I would use are the 2, 3, 4. I won't go into too much detail because we're going long. but the ah Two horns, that thing improved ah last time.
Speaker: uh when he got to the turf uh she got to the turf sorry now it was in january But I thought she ran really well. and You can look at the two horse epic lady luck in two ways. You can say, Hey, the horse hasn't run since January and might need a race. You can say, well,
Speaker: she was running that kind of figure and running that well back in january she's a three -year -old she was almost like a two -year -old i mean really a two -year -old uh now she should be that much better so the two and they're see as you mentioned there's pace in the race she proved she can come up the pace the three horse oscar's beauty up ran pretty well to get in the duel even though it held last time
Speaker: ah the speed, but I thought she ran pretty well and she doesn't need the lead. And you got Jose Ortiz and the four queen Juno who had a three wide trip last time I thought ran. Okay. So those, and I thought improved off her last race. So two, three, four. So as far as.
Speaker: The pick five, I haven't decided if I'm going to single race 11 or 10, and we'll get to 11 in a moment, but I might single the seven here. I might single the next race. The other horses I would use are two, three, four. I think it's pretty even this race with a lot of horses. so Why am I going to use short prices? on The reason I might spread is because I just want to make sure I beat the favorites. But I'm leaning towards single in the seven. And as far as betting the race. Assuming the morning line's right, I would box two, three, four, seven.
Speaker: and i'm not a proponent of boxing like four horses or three horses or or whatever every race but when you're beating favorites you got prices i'm fine with that it's kind of my spread bet and then i would key in on the seven so i do two three four seven exacting triple box Then I key the seven. So I bet seven with two, three, four.
Speaker: Uh in exact is I put the seven on top for more and I do the same thing with the triple seven one two three four and then seven on top for more and I Probably bet the seven to win it five to one. I definitely bet doubles this race because I like next race.
Speaker: But anyway, that's kind of how I'm looking at this race. So GQ, if you want to... Say anything else or ask anything and then we can move on. No, um I guess I... Maybe some of our listeners would be curious, your opinion on the eight horse. who is Seven wins out of 11 starts, but try and turf for the first time.
Speaker: I'm not. all that sold on uh This horse being able to. Transfer. um her winning ways onto the turf. Um... Anything quickly you have to say about her?
Speaker: Yeah, not much. I mean, she's going to be a relatively short prize. She hasn't run great, although against tough competition. I'm not going to use the horse. Could she win? Of course, but you know, not, not for me. Plus
Speaker: I think Jorge Delgado is 0 for 30. first time turf sprints or no, that's, I'm sorry. That's a sire. I think St. Patrick's day for what it's worth over for thirty turf sprinting ah his offspring. So I wouldn't want to talk to anyone off the horse, which I. apparently just tried to, but you know, not for me, but I can understand if you like the horse, I guess, but you know, horse who didn't run great. Now they're trying something new. and I don't know, not for me.
Speaker: like a little distracted
Speaker: In the finale on Wednesday, 17 to 1, right up on the lead here. I hope you can hold on. yeah You think OTA 30 is discouraging anyone? All right, so I'll go on. We'll move on to it. Yeah, well, that's right. And i'llll I'll stretch it out until that race is over. Okay, so the fourth leg of Saturday's late pick five at Saratoga. It is race 11.
Speaker: It is a one mile event. ah on the dirt For New York breads, it's a starter $40 ,000 allowance. Which, there's a potpourri of horses in here that are... either non -winners of two or non -winners of three uh the morning line favorite uh is linda rice owned in uh trained via claim back in january
Speaker: 5 -2 morning line. I didn't see that one coming. um I'm actually going to go to... the six horse oh my Gosh.
Speaker: Takahama. is the horse's name 12 to 1 morning line galded since January, its last start when it was claimed out of a winning effort.
Speaker: First time Lasix. uh when it went off as a dollar 61 favorite This horse has been given way too much time off, but obviously there were some things going on there.
Speaker: that uh uh maybe uh cause um the connections to say, okay, let's kill this guy. Settling down I like the work tab leading up to to this.
Speaker: and um At 12 to 1. Who uh... who's the argue uh or or laugh so um The six horse would be my top selection at 12 to one.
Speaker: Tackle homo. Are you ready to? Yeah, no, I was ready. Yeah. second for Yep. No problem. Thank you. Uh, I mean, I'm not on your horse, but I'm not going to talk to you. I'm a 12 to one. So this is a horse I really like here as well. And that's the one dinner Royale.
Speaker: ah for amelia My second choice. Oh, look at that. Well, 72. uh your safety chalk there so this is the i don't they defensive inclusion so She's actually third choice on the morning line, this horse, so it's not terrible. But this is what I thought. I upgraded the last two races. So two back off a long layoff was at... 35 ,000 meeting claimer. for state brands.
Speaker: And I thought ran pretty well, was three across the track. Um... It ran really well. just against weaker. And then last time, ran against the same class of horses going seven furlongs in the slop.
Speaker: And the horse was in an insane duel, I felt, with a three -to -one shot and faded. All the speed collapses. The only horse who held on. Unfortunately, because of that, a lot of people now see that and they're going to bet the horse off of it. I guess I'm used to me.
Speaker: a big advantage because people a didn't watch replays or think about but now all these public handicappers talk about that and and it just draws money but i thought the horse ran great and yes has to go another furlong so uh you never know if the horse can do it but you know Based on the breathing, I think it's okay. It's not, you know, ready to go eight miles, but King for a day won the... ah
Speaker: or was it Haskell or whatever it was, and im Monmouth. So anyway, I thought this horse is a very good bet here, especially in a race where you got some speed, and that's very deadly. Remember these Wilton shoot races.
Speaker: They kind of... If you don't fire out, you often get squeezed back. So this horse should hopefully fire out of the gate and not get squeezed back too badly. So that's the horse I like here. And I would really contemplate singling this horse.
Speaker: And I'm leaning towards doing that. There is one or two others I have some interest in. But is there anything else you want to say about this race before I talk about the last couple and and betting the race? Uh, no, you can uh...
Speaker: Lead us onward. Okay. So yeah, the fives, uh, McDiesel is going to pose a peace challenge. And that's the one thing about the one that I don't love the fact that the fives in the race and if the five scratches somehow that I'm all over the one, but, uh, the other words that I don't know what to do with the seven come full circle.
Speaker: You know, it's a short price. If you're not sure, usually leave them out. But I don't know. I have a good feeling about this horse. chew back Against the same level came in third, but I thought running good race was very wide in that race and I upgraded that race two back for come full circle. But then last time.
Speaker: it was like a closer race right the the pace fell apart this horse had a great setup the only thing so normally i would toss this horse the only thing is that was a sloppy track and this horse is proven I think that... he
Speaker: doesn't really run as well on a sloppy track. So if I toss the last race out because of the sloppy track, then I like this horse, especially if there's a pace duel. So I kind of want to use the horse. And then the four is the one who's a little bit of a price. Maybe I can see. Yes, it was against weaker, but I thought ran really well up on the pace. Again, though.
Speaker: This is a race with, you know, decent amount of pace possibly, but this horse has come off the pace a little bit in the past on the turf. So maybe you can come up in pace. Obviously, you don't get eye right now, so we'll see what happens there. But I'm kind of like 147 here. I don't love the two, the morning line favorite, who could run well, but I feel the two calling card just benefited from the clash drop last time and probably.
Speaker: we'll You know, that that's why the two calling card won, I think, last time, because of the massive class drop. And now going against a little better, I'm not in love with the two. And the only other horse I had on my thing was Sociable Johnny, the eight.
Speaker: The other. The other Linda Wright story. Sorry, I have animals in this house it's going crazy. but uh yes sounds like someone's not a fan of those selections of yours apparently not uh socially johnny had a good trip last time but with linda and you always bet the longer of the two horses when the trainer has the same When a trainer has two whores in the race, I always like to bet the long one, but I'm working on the one here, maybe the seven, maybe the four.
Speaker: in this race. So in a pick five, either I'm going to single the one here or what I'm leading to is singling the seven Triskelion in race 10 and going one, four, seven here. GQ.
Speaker: All right, now let's move on to the last leg of Saturday's Saratoga late pick five. It's race 12. It is a maiden state maiden clamber for 50 ,000 going a mile and a 16th on the turf.
Speaker: Feel to have signed on to main track only's who will not figure in this one And a lot of interesting ways to go here. There's...
Speaker: Three first -time starters that may take some interest A horse that... I had picked last time when I ran the same time ah when the Bowling Green. uh was um The one horse who's the morning line favorite, which I have a hard time believing.
Speaker: is Is this just a... ah you know, horses first time in for a tag been facing the top level of New York breads and finally gets.
Speaker: it's the face a little weaker, but I mean. Is this horse just a follower? follower versus one that really wants to To win that. That's my question. I mean, I went back and forth. Of course that actually... has great TERF!
Speaker: bloodlines. with three full siblings. earning um you know set over 700 000 and close to 300 000 is the two wars 21 morning line shenanigans buck.
Speaker: but the only problem is is they're all tough sprinters They did not go two turns on the turf. and You know, when you got four siblings doing that.
Speaker: Hmm. I can't. i would be very, very... Pro - pressed. to back that one knowing that it seems like the family's a bunch of sprinters. um other than that uh I think a lot of people will gravitate to the outside, the 10 horse.
Speaker: which is the first -time start of 5 -1. five dollars for socks. But... I have a big red X. ah on there, which means Bye. sheets. steer clear.
Speaker: And I think you know the reason why. Just look at... um ah the sale price. You wanna... add your wisdom as far as your your theory on that well i don't It's not necessarily my theory, but they paid $220 ,000. I can read that without you. Thank you.
Speaker: uh and before He even races. They're willing to sell him for $50 ,000. So if you pay 220. for something and you're willing to sell them for $50 ,000. Not to mention all the training for years. any vet bills, you know, you're you're losing a couple hundred thousand dollars here. So if you're willing to get rid of a horse.
Speaker: then it's probably not the greatest. But, you know, interesting stat on the 10. Christophe, sorry about that, Miguel Clement. is 26%.
Speaker: with first timers. going long on the turf. However, In mating claiming races, he's 0 for 8. ah So it's pretty interesting that, you know, maybe that he just doesn't like these horses and there's a reason why. You know, it's it's tough to take a first timer going long.
Speaker: but Clement's one of the few guys that would do it. Maybe, you know, Chad, Clement going long on the turf, but i I don't really have an opinion in this race. Were you going to go on? I don't know. I didn't want to talk to you. You know, I.
Speaker: Gilbane, who... Again, I think both of us talked about him last time he ran. and He was much the second best to the horse that ran him down He's another one. Second time on Lasix. He should be.
Speaker: um The favorite in here. um i'm I'm just looking. looking for excuses to like any any other horse in here but i keep coming up with the Alright. Nothing that that big. Typically, I like to see.
Speaker: Anywho. Any horse. On the damn side. that has street cry in them. his or her bloodlines, which... Points me to the three for two turn races.
Speaker: Which this one, I think, was Aqueduct one turn mile or is that? Two turns. ah Before an aqueduct. pretty sort two turns or Might be out of the chute. No, it's two turns. I'm almost positive it's two turns, or was.
Speaker: yeah yeah my i mean I mean, the damn made her living on the dirt. so No, I'm sorry. The dirt? races are one were were one turn. Right. now yeah so And I don't know back then. I guess that Saratoga race on the dirt was the Wilton shoot. I guess they had it in 2024. Yeah, two years ago. That was the first year, I think. Right. A turn and a half there. Right. So, I mean, for what it's worth.
Speaker: i'm i'm not saying i'm on the horse but just mention that i i I've always seen improvement going two turns with street cries, especially on the turf. So who knows? Mike mike Maker has the horse.
Speaker: Um... You know the the four because I ride was supposed to be on the horse and Let's go. trainer who only has a small sample size for the year, but wins you know, that race back in May on.
Speaker: the top um all weather. That was an open company, obviously. um If the horse moves forward.
Speaker: Should be a ah factor, but I just don't like the fact that since May um There was like almost a ah month break from the July 3rd. work now Again, it was in South Florida. Probably took time. to bring the horse up, acclimated to Saratoga. gave it one work but um All right.
Speaker: Who knows who who will ride the horse now? but Amen. I'm just looking at some of my notes. and I... there there There isn't anything here that tells me, oh, I love...
Speaker: this one horse. But so with that being said. I'd probably default to the horse that just was second best last time it ran. the the a which is nothing earth shattering at five to two more.
Speaker: I don't like anything so I'll default to the favorite. No, I'm saying he's the the best of a poor lot, I guess you could say. Well, if you I mean, I know you referenced it a little bit, but...
Speaker: I was high on Jobain last time, of the eight horse. more so because i didn't like the rest of the field and the favorite was the seven uh leave me who looked like the horse to beat but was going to be a very short price And.
Speaker: Joe Bain came in second by a head. Bye. I mean, this horse had the perfect trip that day. And I think that was the day to have that horse. And. I'm okay betting against Joe Bean. I didn't love the field. Not that I like this field. It's not that good. But, you know, coming off a perfect trip.
Speaker: Now, further outside, I would bet against Jobin here, not use Jobin. the one before the win, the second favorite. So when I'm looking at a race, right, to bet it. The favorite? All right, I can toss. I'm fine with that. I'm a little more reluctant or a little reluctant to toss the one before the win because of the drop. I know you referenced this horse and not the most positive turns, but...
Speaker: I mean, the horse is gonna save ground. you know it doesn't have a ton of speed but going against weaker here Uh... I think the horn's gonna... you know has a legitimate chance do i love the one no so at three to one i don't really want him so my question for not question but my Thought process is, am I willing to bet against the one also? And the horses I would contemplate are so many that it makes it hard.
Speaker: uh the i'll go real quick because i don't have much opinion the two i mean First timer going long. I know Giddings has a win doing that, but it's hard for me to bet a first timer going long. The three DC boys you mentioned, I think that horse has a shot. We squeezed some at the start. Even though it had no impact last time, needed the race. Just been off a while now. and They're trying to get rid of a horse they paid $350 ,000 for, so maybe there's a little damage there.
Speaker: You mentioned the four Osiris law, the trainer is very good stats, 38%. uh second time starter turf Going long. so this is a horse who me that was all in like delaware and uh colonial and some florida races but you know it's done well i wasn't a fan of the five last time lobbyist so i'm probably not gonna bet him again although this time you get a price i would actually try the six photo didn't have a good trip last time i thought i had an outside chance last time but had a tough post last time and uh really didn't have ah a good trip
Speaker: uh was bumped off stride in the stretch wasn't winning at that point but the the finish looked a lot worse than it was so the six ah i would contemplate photo again The seven bond is okay. First timer is going long. but I don't know, to take a first timer going long, maybe I would use a seven. I'm against Joe Bain.
Speaker: Uh, babe. The nine, Moe Curls, Rudy is like so bad with these things. And the 10, we referenced Clemence, bad stats. So if I were to bet this race, which I don't think I will in full honesty, but maybe.
Speaker: I would probably just try and beat the one in the eight. If I was using one of the favorites, I would use the one over the eight. And I might even, but again, not someone who just always boxes four horses, something like that. But if I'm leaving out the two favorites, I have no problem. I'm going to spread and use as much as I think.
Speaker: to to hit this race and if it's a four or five quarters box i'll do it i would almost never do that except like in the derby or something with 20 horses but i'm willing to do that and i would press kind of like i said in earlier races on the pick five i'd probably try and beat both the only thing is
Speaker: I'm probably singling. uh triskelion who's the fourth choice in that race at five to one so you know if i throw in a little chalk here that i don't love like the one who i like but i don't love I might throw in the one and I can pick five spreading here. But for the most part, I'll be trying to beat Gil Mane. But I don't have a strong opinion here, so I'll...
Speaker: Kind of stop it there. All right, so we're... about a minute and 10 seconds away from hitting the one hour mark so I have nothing more to say. other than ta -ta to you but uh that's your Your job. Yep, I'll be back in Pittsburgh this weekend, so hopefully I can get some bets in. but you know We'll see how it goes for everyone out there. Thanks for listening.
Speaker: And good luck at the races this week. Ta -ta.
