Transcript
Speaker: Hello, and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill, and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
Speaker: Hey, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ, how be you?
Speaker: i'm doing well, Eric, probably tad bit better than I was 24 hours earlier when, um, the world of horse racing was introduced to the partnership that CDI and Naira put together called their three-year-old championship series, which immediately, ah social media was going crazy. Cats were sleeping with dogs and, um, Everybody was reporting the death of the Preakness. But we have guest that if you and I know well from arab partnership with...
Speaker: Wasabi stables, none other than TK Coogler, who was heavily involved in what was announced in Maryland today. tk thanks a lot for joining us. I know you're at the airport. You've got only a few minutes, but we wanted to have you on to just kind of explain and try to answer some questions that have been thrown around out there that haven't been answered yet. So welcome, ah and thanks for giving us your time.
Speaker: Yeah, and and and Gary, I don't know if it was a Freudian slip, but maybe I am in vial today as well. I might be in vial and involved. So so both I might have both going for me today. All right. um for those of you who don't know TK outside of his Wasabi Venture Stables, he's also involved with Maryland Jockey Club. He's one of the board of directors.
Speaker: And that's how he got heavily involved in the announcement that Maryland Governor Westmore made today that the Maryland Jockey Club entered a new six year media rights agreement with NBC Sports.
Speaker: And in addition, moving the breakness back eight days. TK, give us ah the cliff notes of all that and anything that maybe hasn't already been said by the government.
Speaker: Yeah, I mean, I would i would say couple things he was that I think really helped. is One, this is easily the largest media contract for the state of Maryland and the state of Maryland racing.
Speaker: Easily though. It's a six-year deal. It is easily the largest contract ever done So that's that's one the second thing that I would say is really important to understand is is that it's this deal is all about increasing the exposure for Maryland racing and and honestly for the Triple Crown itself and um You know, obviously we've all heard the two biggest items that have drawn the most attention, which is a move of a week back, um you know, so that it's three weeks plus the move to a Saturday-Sunday instead of a Friday-Saturday situation. So that the Preakness is going to be on Sunday, 22 the Derby.
Speaker: So all of those things everybody's heard. I think it's really also important, because this is all subtle, is is that it also includes, um for the first time ever, primetime coverage and national coverage of of the Preakness Preview Day, which is the Tessio Stakes Day. It also includes, obviously, something close to my heart, um the Maryland Million in the fall, which is since, you know, the days of Jim McKay and the ESPN has never, has not had any national.
Speaker: So those are probably little things that got lost in there that I think are just as important in many ways if you're if you're if you're paying attention. what Was the move um back eight days an attempt to try to have more space for the Derby winner to consider it? And i guess ah people out there might say, well, you know, the Triple Crown these days is irrelevant because of the way horses are trained these days. Nobody's going to do that.
Speaker: um what What do you say to to the people who say the Triple Crown doesn't matter anymore? Well, i I think because we talk about it, you know the Triple Crown matters, right? I mean, you know, I mean, if if we weren't, you wouldn't have put me, I sure the hell wouldn't have got on here from the airport and talked to you if it didn't matter, right? And so for the people that want to say it doesn't matter, that's, you know, that's like saying...
Speaker: um I wanted to date the prettiest girl ah at the school. um She wouldn't have any time for me, so she just doesn't matter. Well, of course it still matters, right? She ain't date with you, that's all. um you know and i think And I think that's kind of really the situation that you've heard from the people who say it doesn't matter. It's it's um it's it's probably ah it's probably one of those false bravado things. The second thing I would say that I think To answer your your first part of your question, absolutely.
Speaker: we we did this because we think it gets a better chance for horses who come out of the Derby and want to race and maybe don't want to race a mile and a half as their next race to come back and be and give them an option at the new Pimlico.
Speaker: um So i think i think I think that's another thing to not lose sight of is is that that's also the option. um It also doesn't change that maybe, you know, Naira decides that it needs to make changes so that it can, you know, sort of work within sort of the Triple Crown framework.
Speaker: You know, it doesn't preclude that. um This was just us being able to control the things we could control, and this was one of those things that we could do. Well, one thing that I kind of chuckle at was people were like, well, why can't you know the three entities just work together? and it's like, when has that ever happened in horse racing that tracks have ah cooperated with one another? yeah know That's a pipe dream.
Speaker: But ah in addition to the move back, as you said, it gives um more ah exposure to um not only Sunday, Preakness Day, but a full weekend, whereas people don't need to you know travel on a Thursday in order to go to Black Eyed Susans on a Friday or whatever. Talk talk a little bit about that.
Speaker: thinking. Yeah, think this is probably the one single thing that I think has gotten lost in the translation, because it's easy to just focus on preakness, preakness, preakness, is it that you have to understand that the preakness is actually an entire weekend, if maybe not a week, of celebrations, right? It is a week of related events.
Speaker: And the second biggest one of those is the Black Eyed Susan Day, right? and forever, that's obviously been on Friday. The estimate that we have, and I would say the the move to Saturday, Sunday is a way bigger impact move than actually adding the week.
Speaker: But no one has really talked about that one little element. And because making the Black Eyed Susan a Saturday event that can be really focused and put in the primetime coverage, media coverage,
Speaker: it It elevates that race instant is what it does. And my my estimate, for those of that out you there out there that want to bet on this, my line is is that the weekend overall revenue will go up by 40% because of the Saturday-Sunday move.
Speaker: The very first year, we're going to have a 40% increase in revenue. That's a good sign. That is a good sign. Now, um also... For the people, I've seen everybody saying, okay, increase purses, increase purses.
Speaker: And correct me if I'm wrong, there hasn't been anything stated yet. There may be something in the future.
Speaker: i would say there is 100% going to be something in the future. So, but what, you know, this is one of those things too that I always find interesting is is that, And for for those that aren't, maybe you don't run a business or something like that, you don't just do one thing and stop, right?
Speaker: We're in like the third inning of a nine-inning game. This is, we we we're not even, we're just warming up. This is, so I think you're going to find five or six or ten really interesting announcements over the next three weeks.
Speaker: four months, right? i mean, we're we're almost a year out from from the Preakness, right? And Preakness weekend. I think you're going find all kinds of interesting announcements that are going to happen. It's not like this is, oh, we did one thing. It's over. It's over. We got this. It's over.
Speaker: That That's just not how successful businesses and operations were. Maybe that's how they worked in horse racing forever and why they there are problems like there are. But that's not that's not what's happening the Maryland Jockey Club.
Speaker: there there's ah another topic that all the horse players that's near and dear to their heart, and you may or may not be able to address this, is takeout. You know, everybody's there like, well, all they have to do is lower the takeout, the 12 to 15% on all the races, and everybody will want to bet on it.
Speaker: The problem is is, the people making the decision on whether or not to run their horse in the Preakness two or three weeks after the Derby, they could give a rat's ass about takeout because they're they're they're not the ones who are betting, like Eric and I, who only bet the pick five when it's 15%. They're not going to touch a track when it's 24%.
Speaker: Is that being addressed within the Maryland Jockey Club? Yes. the the The short answer is yes. um I put together, um as far as I know, it's the very first one ever that I've ever heard of I took five fairly well-known handicappers, bettors, and invited them to create what I'm calling handicapper's council.
Speaker: And I am asking them to raise the issues that would make Maryland Racing better for bettors. And we're going to attack them one by one. Does that mean I'm going to be able to do all of them that they want to do? No. Does that mean we can solve every single problem? No.
Speaker: The takeout percentage thing is complicated. um you know There's a reason why you know there's there's not 2% takeout everywhere. that's not it'ss there's a There's a real complication here to being able to adjust numbers here. But I'm a better. i hate the takeout numbers just like everybody else. i i want I'm not going to bet into a poll that's 27%.
Speaker: That's pretty asinine, can't it? So, um you know, so these are things that we've got to adjust, you know, and we will. We're going to attack them. I promise you. I can promise you sitting here that we're going to attack those types of things. I'll i'll give you another thing.
Speaker: You know, I hate, you know, and this is not universal, but I hate them. I hate jackpot pick sixes. I hate them. Hate them. I don't like them. Well, you're not alone.
Speaker: Yeah. And so i would think I would think that you're going to see maybe late fall a change to the jackpot pick six that happens at Laurel today. And I think i think i think there's real – I'm just picking one yeah item just to give that sense that we're we're not just doing one thing and stopping, right? I mean, this is this is a complete relook at every aspect of it.
Speaker: um What I will tell you is, yeah and this is a true statement, i was I was actually in a meeting with a with a handful of other racing executives, and Bill Knopf, who is the new CEO of the Maryland Jockey Club, I heard another racing executive say during this meeting, it's great that we have Bill here, because he is the only racing executive that I know that is a good handicap.
Speaker: I mean, Bill's a better. I mean, Bill's a handicapper at heart. That's what he is. And so he he gets that pain too. he understands. It's not like he doesn't cognitively get it.
Speaker: He wants to fix that for betters as well. Sure. right, great. um We're running out time with you, but ah i'm I'm going to switch gears real quick and give you an opportunity to have a plug or whatever. A lot of people, FanDuel TV racing is going away everybody's looking for alternatives or who's going to pick up the slack. um I know in our Wasabi Stable Racing channels, You've hinted to possible um broadcasting, not of horse racing, but of something else. Do you care to give us a tease on that?
Speaker: so So, I mean, it's still earliest days, but I um i think we are going to launch – Timing's a little open-ended. actually have ah had a call about it today ah among the 9 million other things I was dealing with. um But um we're going to we're going to launch a new broadcast solution that I think will be interesting and very unique.
Speaker: Never done before in the racing world. um some a different way to think about content and a different way to present content. um And we're loosely calling it um ah the racing business network, the RBN.
Speaker: But um but i think I think it's going to be some really, really interesting content. and um And we're bringing in faces and names and producers really from the TVG slash FanDuel world who are now looking for jobs, right? you know And so we took some of the best from there and said, hey, let's go over here and create a new TV network.
Speaker: And i'm hopeful I'm hopeful to have some more meat to that launch real soon. Awesome. Well, TK, thanks again for coming on I know you're probably dead tired of talking this, but yeah thanks thanks again for all of your efforts. Like I said, me being a Maryland bred Preakness, it's personal to me, and I appreciate your efforts. and everything you do for Maryland racing included. So safe safe travels, and we'll have to go on again in the future to do some handicapping with us. Yeah, let me let me make some bad picks. I'm i'm really useful with that. Have me back on.
Speaker: All right. Hey, safe travels. Thanks again. T.K. Kugler of Wasabi Stables and Maryland Jockey Club. Okay. Thanks again to TK Kugler for stopping in and checking in with us. Just thought that was a ah nice little diversion, little horse racing news that some people may be interested, others not. but Here we go. It is now time for the section of the podcast where Eric and I go through ah late pick five sequence, which this week, as we're recording on Wednesday evening, We are going to look at Saratoga's Saturday late pick five, which starts in race 10 through 14, which includes the grade one Whitney. So without further ado, we're going to buzz through these races and hopefully give you some things to look at and things to contemplate. So the first race of the late pick five at Saratoga on Saturday is race 10, which which is the three-quarter of a million-dollar grade one four-star Dave going one mile on the inner turf.
Speaker: There is a field of seven signed up, and the two-to-one favorite is the five deterministic. And I'm the chalk-eating weasel going with deterministic, mainly because um I think there's enough speed in here signed on that deterministic will continue his winning streak.
Speaker: And he's currently 5-for-5 with Kendrick Carmuch in the irons. And ah similar just off the early leaders, I see him being able to rally. Now, Eric, um do you have opinions outside of deterministic? Or if you like deterministic, how would you suggest a play on this race? Or ah let's not talk about the pick five as of yet.
Speaker: So, you know, I like deterministic for the most part. I mean, the horses won, what, five in a row, you said? Yep. Beat some of these, or at least beat rhetorical last time. So, as far as the race goes, just looking at the pace, Mark Cassie the two and the four, one of which is going to be scratched. It sounds like Mibago, or Mibago, however you pronounce it, will be scratched.
Speaker: Honestly, Classic Q, I think, is a better horse out of the two, even though it's a she against the he's, but we don't discriminate. ah So it looks like Classic Q probably is the speed of the race, but there's some other horses that like to be close to the lead, not that they need the lead. And it really came up a pretty pretty good race, despite the fact there's only going to be about six horses here, most likely.
Speaker: Uh, I just, let's touch on a few of the horses cause it's not going to take that long. So rhetorical, obviously a nice horse. My fear of the one rhetorical is the fact that he's had some good trips and think that's made him look better than he might be, although he's pretty good. So I don't know if that's the right terminology. Uh, last race, the argument last race was it was too far, right? It was a mile and three sixteenths now back to a mile.
Speaker: But, you know, I had a pretty easy lead and couldn't hold deterministic off. And deterministic was right on that one's hip the whole time. And I think even though it was a mild deterministic could have gone by. So while I'm not like totally against rhetorical, I'm not really a huge fan in this spot. I know missed some training time and all. So I'm willing to play against rhetorical.
Speaker: I think me bagel will scratch. If not, I don't like the horse here Zulu kingdom, who I love last year. I've been playing against this year. First time worked out big time. Last time did not work out so well. Zulu kingdom, the three as he was able to win that race, but had a perfect trip.
Speaker: And, Mibago, yeah, had a pretty easy lead there. But, I mean, why couldn't he run down Mibago? I don't know. To me, Zulu Kingdom's coming off a bunch of really good trips. I don't know that this horse is taking a huge step forward at three. Maybe I'm at four. Maybe I'm wrong. but So I'm kind of against Zulu Kingdom here. The horse that I want to bet is actually the sixth Capitol Hill.
Speaker: This is the worst two. I really liked the last couple of races. Yeah, grade three, there's a grade one, but I thought ran really well in the poker. And then last time, a again, Zulu Kingdom and Mibago, there was really no pace. Mibago walked on the lead. Zulu Kingdom tracked right behind, ah saving ground. and No one really was able to close in that race. You can look at the time they closed in 22 seconds for that last quarter.
Speaker: Yet, Capitol Hill tried to close with a wide trip, I had thought, and was the best closer in the race. I think the Horde is improving as a four-year-old. I don't know how much pace we'll get here.
Speaker: Hopefully we'll get a decent pace more so than he's gotten, but that's horse I want to take a swing at most because it's 10 to one. If he's four to one, I don't really care, but 10 to one. And I think deterministic's the other horse. A lot you know, I've always liked in the past, but I just, A, I don't think the horse is getting better. as a five-year-old and B, I just think he's been going against a little weaker down in Kentucky and wherever he's running. So,
Speaker: To me, I just want to use two horses here in a pick five, and that's five deterministic and the six capital hill. So in pick five, I'm just going too deep. As far as me betting the race, um I would probably bet them in an exact and box it. I might key capital hill with a couple other horses, possibly, but I'm not positive. So I might do like six, that's capital hill, with the four classic q and maybe with the one or three, but I'm really mostly going to be 6'5", 5'6", in this spot. Now, for you, you said you like deterministic. and Anyone who does like deterministic, knowing that that horse will be the favorite or co-favorite, to me, if you like deterministic,
Speaker: You have to look at the second choice and third choice. Rhetorical, the second choice, and Zulu Kingdom, the third choice. If you like all three of those, like to me, that's a race not to bet. But if you like deterministic, but you don't love rhetorical or Zulu Kingdom, and you think you might be able to beat them, sure, bet deterministic with some of the other horses, whichever ones you might like. ah whether Again, I'm assuming the two is going to scratch.
Speaker: So whether it's five aharistic with a four classic Q with the six Capitol Hill or the seven, if you like Loginos, again, I don't care for that horse really in this spot, but um that's how would bet it. I would just put the five with those horses, I guess, and try and beat the second and third choice here in this spot, if that makes sense.
Speaker: Yeah. um here' Here's something I'll throw away out at you. um Gary Barber owns three horses in here, one which will be scratched. um Like you said, probably me, Bago.
Speaker: um Classic q I bet her in that last race because she there was no other speed in the race. And, you know, she won easy based on the fact that she she won without anybody pressing her.
Speaker: Now you look at Rhetorical, also owned by by Gary Barber, not that there's collusion here, but if you just simply look at Rhetorical's last two races,
Speaker: you think, oh, speed. But not really. i ah Rhetorical, that that was, you know, mile and 316, mile and 8, they were longer, and maybe just naturally, you know, she'd go or he'd go out on the front.
Speaker: But if you look at all the other races back, I mean, rhetorical doesn't need the lead, and especially the races, um a couple years ago, he was actually a closer. So does rhetorical really...
Speaker: pressed toward the lead or is it Zulu kingdom? The one that's going to be pressing now classic a q I mean, listen, there's speculation, but look what happened last time. ah oh no, I'm sorry. Wrong, wrong race. My bad. I was going to say with I go, no, what there's no way that they're going to go at each other with the same owner anyway, and it's New York. So they don't go out on each other anyway. And when Johnny V goes, no one ever goes against him. So the four is going out there probably on the lead. And the one will do what he did.
Speaker: In the past, he'll save ground, sit just off the pace, and you know probably get a really good trip with Irad. I just hope the horse is not as good as he once was. But no, I don't think there'll be too much pressure. I think Classic Q will be out there.
Speaker: Zulu Kingdom will be close. Rhetoric will be sitting right off. And Deterministic will be just behind them probably, but very close. Laginos won't be that far back. And Capitol Hill will be the one horses back. And you know hopefully they can save ground behind those horses and then just swing out top of the stretch. But I don't know if i answered your question. But no, they're not going to be in a pace duel. I cannot imagine the one and four go at it. And if the four out and the two is running, I don't think the one and two are going be at it.
Speaker: Right, but my point is definitely the one and the four aren't going to be out there, but if the four goes, then does that force Pratt to take Zulu Kingdom up closer to force the pace? Yeah, he'll probably be the one stalking just outside, if I had to guess. So you'll have the four on the lead, the three Zulu Kingdom will probably be stalking right outside. Rhetoric will be just inside of them. think Determinus will be just off them, but he could be up too, who knows, with Kendrick. i don't I'm not good at judging. I mean, I'm not great at judging pace.
Speaker: This doesn't really factor that much into my handicapping here. You know, if I think going to big speed duel or low speed, that factors in. As far as where everyone is, I don't know because it's just guessing. I'd rather – My pipe the point was it's like, oh, well, there's there's no way that the pace is going to be slow, but then I was just throwing my i was thrown in possibilities of how that could possibly come into play.
Speaker: So, right, enough of that. The second leg of Saturday's late pick five, at Saratoga's race 11. It's the grade one Saratoga Derby, also worth three quarters of a million dollars, going one and three sixteenths of a mile on the turf.
Speaker: There's a field of 10 signed up. And you will think I've been drinking based on the fact that I'm picking 20 one morning line the 8, McGrady.
Speaker: And before you start laughing, let me just say why, okay um The horse has increased its brisnet turf number with each start.
Speaker: Forget about the fact that last race was on the slop. Yeah, running at Delaware isn't all that, but ran at Keeneland, Fairgrounds.
Speaker: The two races that the horse lost, um he had issues. He was steadied and tightened when he lost to Remember Mamba by three and a half.
Speaker: In the next start at Fairgrounds, it was steadied repeatedly early. Whether or not the horse was going to win the race or not, ah at 20 to 1, I think,
Speaker: i think He's worth using. And his best turf brisnet number is not far off from probably the others in here, if not equal to it.
Speaker: So now you can tell me why McCready has no shot at winning. Listen, I'm not going to be an idiot and sit up here and stay and mock you for a 20-to-1 shot, but I will say McCready will be nowhere on my tickets, and I'm not really worried about McCready, but I'm not going to knock you for picking a 20-to-1 shot.
Speaker: you and we Oh, I'm sorry. We cheated a little bit and spoke during the week a little bit about some of these races. So the other horse you like I think has a shot at a price.
Speaker: So before I go into my spiel, do you want to talk about the other one that you like? Yeah, the other one is the the one horse, Glavin, which was part of our conversation and in a previous podcast, obviously back on July 3rd.
Speaker: um Yeah, i
Speaker: stretching out to the furthest he's ever run, i just think there's there's enough there that he continues to close ground.
Speaker: The added disses isn't going to be an issue. um bread bread to to go this distance was the beaten favorite when here's Johnny got the best of him and I just think ah the tables will be turned and he'll show better of himself this time around with Glavin sounds like you like Glavin as well so what what's your reason for Yeah, I mean, you might remember or people out there might remember if they're loyal listeners, if there are such. met july third and we covered We covered those races on July 3rd. I think we did. And I singled Glavine, or I was talking about singling. I assume I did. And he had another not really great trip. He was coming off a tough trip before that. So yeah, glad and having these tough trips. He already spoke a little bit about it. I just, you know, he's had trouble out of the gate. I didn't think it was that much his fault last time. He got squeezed significantly at the start. He did save ground, but he had to wait last time also later in the race. So I think this horse has a decent shot here.
Speaker: And definitely will be included on my tickets, and I'll talk about how momentarily. The other long shot, I i guess, is a long shot, although the horse has entered August 7th, so I don't know if this horse is running Friday or or Saturday, but the nine, and don't quote me on pronunciation, bodice or bodice. This is a horse who ran in the Belmont Derby last time, and a few of these are coming out of the Belmont Derby. i guess this is like the next leg, the Saratoga Derby. You have the three Remember Mama, the four Title Roll. You have the five Pacific Avenue coming out of that race, and the nine I just mentioned, Botus, and the ten West End Kids. You have five horses out of that race.
Speaker: Back here, and that race featured very, very little pace, and the closers were up against it. So I would give those closers a little bit of an upgrade and maybe the speed a little downgrade. And BOTUS really did not have an ideal trip He was checked back again early. So that's a theme here. He gets checked back checked back early. He was checked on the early on the backstretch. It wasn't awful.
Speaker: He was tight in the stretch, though somehow I don't know how much punch he had left, but still he was checked a little bit in the stretch. so And he closed into those slow fractions. The problem is you might get slow fractions again, and they might be up against it. So those are two horses, Glavin and Bodas, I like. there's There's one other I like maybe better.
Speaker: That I'll go into unless you want to jump in at all. no mom you're correct in that. Botus is actually entered on Friday. So we're not sure which yeah which race will go.
Speaker: yeah can I hope he enters on Friday because I'll save money here using him. The main take I have on this is I'm to be against the four title role. Title role, I thought, had a really good tramping up on the speed on the slow pace last time. It really helped him.
Speaker: He was kind of getting caught at the wire, so now he's going further. I'm against Tidal Rawl. I mean, he's 9-2 on the morning line. So you know going against 9-2 shot is not some like crazy, amazing take that gives you a huge advantage. I'm hoping he would be the favorite, and then it'll give me an advantage. But I'm kind of against that horse. And the horse I i like, I'm just you know worried about the price. And that's the 5 Pacific Avenue. This horse I liked last time in the Belmont Derby. I preferred him the most.
Speaker: I believe, I i don't know if met Tidal Roll, though. I know I met someone else because of the price, but Pacific Avenue was a little short. But this horse had a really, i don't know, nightmare is the right word, but really tough trip. Had ah a slightly slow start. Nothing crazy or abnormal because he's gotten off to not the greatest starts in Europe in some of the races that I watched.
Speaker: He was a shuffled a bit. and found himself in last early. um And he was moving best late into that slow pace and really flying late. So I just thought that trip was not very good for him. I mean, I know Bueh is considered one of the top jockeys in the world, but you got Irad who, you know,
Speaker: I'm going say an upgrade here in America, maybe not, but you're least getting the best jockey in the race. It's going to hurt the price a little bit, but I really like Pacific Avenue. I am worried a little bit about um the the lack of pace here, but I think if he can finally get out of the gate,
Speaker: He's got a good shot. And the last race in Europe, the one at car the Carra on May 23rd, if that says, I can't really say too well. He was checked off at the start. He was three wide in that race against Justad, who's one of the top turf horses in Europe. so And that's probably why I like this horse last time. So I'm thinking on Pacific Avenue, just the price dependent. So I'm basically, my main horses here are the five horses.
Speaker: ah Pacific Avenue, the one Glavin and the nine Bodus. I want to mention some others, but I'm talking for a long time. So I'll let you throw any questions out or any thoughts you have on the race. i do want to touch upon a couple of the other favorites here and then talk briefly about how I might bet the race. So go ahead, GQ. Yeah, you basically, everything you just said,
Speaker: ah i could have said as as well because the Pacific Avenue was my third horse. And for the same reasons, I think title role, the extra 16th isn't to his his liking and Pacific Avenue was actually the seven to two, uh, in, in that last race. And like you said, didn't have the grace of trip. So, um, I won't expand upon what you've already said, but, uh,
Speaker: All right, so I'm 8-1-5, and you're 5-1-9 in some sense. For the most part, but you know we talk about it. I hate just listing horses because if the 5 is the 5 is not my pick in this race, and I'm going to be betting someone else. and Even if he is 5-1, if the 1 Glavin is 18-1, I might switch to Glavin, or if the 9 is 20-1, I might switch to the 9. It's so price-bending. But yeah, those are the horses that I'm i'm looking at here. You're talking about. You're talking in your vertical bets.
Speaker: Yeah, vertical and… Right, because for you you you don't know what price you're going to get if you're pick to pick five. and what's the same one You do see the double probable, so you'll have an idea. understand what you're saying. the Let's just talk quickly because i don't want to belabor the race too much. The three, remember, Mamu is going short price.
Speaker: I have nothing against this horse. Also was against the pace last time. But this one is a deep closer. right i think Pacific Avenue could show some speed if Irad breaks the horse better. So you're taking a a short price on a deep closer who, again, is a nice horse who I don't know that the horse is improving though. And I like the horse.
Speaker: If the horse was six to one, yeah, I'd throw him in. But at three to one, I'm going to be against the three, remember, Mama, knowing that this horse can win. And the outside horse, the 10, West End Kid, who's seven to two,
Speaker: I thought it ran really well last time. It was actually winning at the end. If they win another couple feet, I think the horse wins the race. So I don't have too much against West End Kidd. I use the 10 before I use the 3. And you do have Pratt, which I don't want to knock Tyler because he's a good jockey, but you go into a...
Speaker: A top top jockey here. So I'm not against the 10, but like at a short price, do I like him that much more than Botus or Glavin or or Pacific Avenue? Not really. So I might as well take the prices. So as far as betting the race, I would, I would use the one five nine, assuming that the nine does run here.
Speaker: in my bets. The other two horses I would think about using in bets are the six, Glacius, only if he's a good price, and the seven, the big con. don't want to get too much into handicapping, but look really good as a two-year-old. Yes, I know it looks like a huge step up and all that, and it is, but bread for the turf.
Speaker: Miguel Clement, who's excellent off a layoff, so I'm not that worried about it. I'm sure the workout reports will say how his work was. I didn't look at it, and I don't know if I looked at the turf work if I would even know what I'm looking at, so I didn't waste my time. But do I love the seven, the big con? No, but I'm going to throw them in the best trying to beat the short-priced horses. So, what would I do here? Well, I'd probably box the one, the five, the seven, and the nine. So, that's my four-horse box because three of them are going to double-digit odds.
Speaker: Assuming the morning line is correct, I'd probably still key the five because he's five to one is still good. So I do five with the one seven, nine. That's why I might throw in the six too. So like five with one, six, seven, nine, and then little extra five with one, nine. And I basically do the same thing in the triple. I try and box the four of them. And then I'd probably key the five, assuming he's five to one. If he gets really short, I might either not key him or or just leave him out.
Speaker: But that's kind of what I do. And yes, West End Kids scares me, but at a short price, I'm willing to overlook him. If Pacific Avenue goes really short, I can see myself possibly going the one Glavin, the seven, the big con and the nine bonus along with West End Kids. So like a one, seven, nine, 10. And I know I'm rambling, so I'll stop in 15 seconds, I promise. But this is why, like a doing a podcast early and B, just saying who going to bet in advance, it's impossible almost.
Speaker: And that's why I talk the way I'm talking about the race, because honestly, if West End Kidd is a significant price more than Pacific Avenue or like a couple points higher, I'd probably switch my key.
Speaker: I think one thing I learned going from unsuccessful and to successful in this game is the fact that you can't be married to your opinion. Like i can't be so cocky that, oh, the five, the trip, the this, this one is going win because anything can happen in the race. So if I think the five is better than the 10 a little bit, but the 10 West End Kids is is a better price and I'm not – I have to be willing to suck up my ego and not be right necessarily in order to win a bet and switch who I'm using in these bets. So again, hopefully that made sense and I didn't ramble too much, but that's how I'm looking at this race.
Speaker: Sounds good. Well, the fact that you're not using my 20 to one, it just totally shocks me that you wouldn't have it. I would love to knock the horse, but how can I knock a 20 to one shot and God forbid the horse wins? That's where I'm saying, you know, you knock on my three to five singles, right? The fact that I'm using like three double digit prices and still not using horse. Anyway, let's ah go ahead and let's move on.
Speaker: All right, so the middle leg, the third leg of the late pick five at Saratoga is the feature race, the grade Whitney, which is race 12.
Speaker: And it's a million-dollar grade one Whitney for three-year-olds and up. And field of eight is entered. Word has it that ah the four-forged steel may scratch the because they might be targeting targeting the Islin.
Speaker: So we may have seven going post-work. Tell you, if anybody actually just loves a horse in here, please send me a DM at horseracingnut on X or email me at gary.quill at gmail.com and tell me why you love it because you can make an excuse for any of the horses in here, but me, the idiot that I am, if I wind up playing a pick five here, i think I'd single the horse that I've never bet in my, in the horse's entire racing career and just hope beyond hope that he doesn't have any gait issues. And that would be the eight by AZA for that. I mean, I think,
Speaker: he's probably the most consistently talented horse that can't get out of his own way, causes his own issues. And I know horses like that usually continue to break their backers heart by continuing to have those issues. But I'm hoping beyond hope that the wisdom of Bill Mott has been able to find a crystal ball and somehow Flavian Pratt can get Baeza the gate cleanly and then just let his talent take over from there. um The 9 to 5 morning line favorite is Magnitude.
Speaker: um What do you think about this assembled crew here for the Whitney? Well, first of all, it's a nice group of horses. get pretty much all the big players, right, in the older horse division here coming to Saratoga for this race. So that's pretty cool. I wish I had a stronger opinion on the race. um I don't really have a huge opinion on this race.
Speaker: I so want to just bet Baeza, like you said. It's almost like too obvious, but the horse just, I mean, this is the third race in row, hasn't gotten out of the gate, but still ran huge last time. i mean, Magnitude had it pretty much his own way up front, and Baeza came running from way back after just a brutal start.
Speaker: I don't know that I want to put all my eggs in a basket and a horse who hasn't broken in a few races. And it's not just he hasn't broken. Like he'll stand in the gate for a couple of seconds. Like it's not even a little bit, you know, if he just breaks a little slow, I don't need a sharp break here. just we Like last, but like half a length or length last, not five. one flat so you making an air When the gate opens.
Speaker: That would be a positive. But I want to bet him because I have so many, even though these are such good horses, I have so many knocks on them. Like magnitude has had it all his own way. His last two races have been great, but in Dubai, an easy lead. Last race here in the Stephen Foster, he had an easy lead. Maybe he gets one here. especially I'm kind of surprised Safi, I know I heard the same thing about Safi's four horse, but doesn't he want like a little bit of a rabbit? Not the way to borrow it was like a deep closer, but don't you want to soften up magnitude a little bit, I thought? But ah yeah.
Speaker: Maybe Magnitude gets an easy lead. I wouldn't be shocked if he wins. I'm not anti-Magnitude. I just don't want a short price on a horse who's had everything his own way. hope me he does. I kind of like Nitrogen. I've always been a fan of this horse.
Speaker: I know, again, it's a girl going against a boy, so some people might have a thing about that. But I think the horse, I mean, everyone saw the last race was a monster. She can somehow repeat in that race. she She can win this one.
Speaker: I do like the three-inch Aquarian. But I've liked this horse in the past, and he's disappointed me, so I don't know. But last time, i would definitely upgrade, if not ignore the Suburban last time. Stumbled and then was squeezed back early. Lacked room in the stretch. um What was...
Speaker: I think I wrote full of run late. Full of, I can't read what I wrote. I should write neater. But the other stuff, the stumbling early, lacking room in the stretch, that's enough to excuse. And Philly's five just ran off the screen that day on the front end. So I can upgrade that race. Is that good enough? I don't know. Before that, how to chase the pace or be on the lead rather in the metropolitan, in the mid-mile. So I just, I kind of like integrating a little bit. The four we won't talk about. White Abario, I don't think is at the same level as he is at this point. Tubac got that huge speed figure when beat Sovereignty and Journalism in Oakland, Sovereignty and Journalism were off the long layoffs, and White Abario had a perfect trip that race.
Speaker: Sovereignty, the question the sixth, the question is, has this horse improved from last year? I don't know. ah Two back off the break. I was like, oh, look at that. you know Off the break, dual journalism. I think was journalism on the lead. And held on for second. White Abario was a nice old horse. Had a perfect trip. So I'm like, all right, yeah, sovereignty, great. But then the Stephen Foster last time, you can argue magnitude and easy lead, but I don't know, sovereignty is had every chance to run better. And it's not like the horse hasn't run well in the slob. So to me, that's not an excuse. So while I like sovereignty, I don't love sovereignty. Tis Tassica, I think he's a little overmatched, but if you like him 31 and that just leaves me with Baeza, who if he breaks out of the gate, i think wins this race, i don' want to easily.
Speaker: So this is not a race I'll probably bet unless Baeza is a big price, but it's 72. I probably would not bet Baeza. As far as ah a pick five goes, i know we haven't talked much about it. I'm probably four five in the first leg. That's deterministic and Capitol Hill, or four, six, whatever that was in the first leg, right?
Speaker: Do you remember the numbers on there? Six, five. Capitol Hill and deterministic in that leg. I'm probably spreading a little in the second leg as we talked about with the five, with the one, with the nine, with the seven in that leg at least. So at least four deep there using almost all prices.
Speaker: So in this race, i I'd probably want to use a combination of nitrogen, antiquarian, and the two, the three, and Baeza, the eight. I don't know if I could single Baeza, though. And again, I don't know if I would bet this race vertically.
Speaker: I mean, maybe antiquarian because of the price, but I'd probably pass on this race vertically and just hope to get through a multi-race sequence with either nitrogen, antiquarian, and or Baeza. Okay.
Speaker: All right. do i like it something more No, that's good enough. So i on the leg four of Saturday's late pick five, Saratoga is race 13, seven furlong event for fillies and mayors, three-year-olds and upward, 55,000 non-winners are one other than There's a field of nine due to go postward.
Speaker: And I landed on the three. Six to one morning line, Helen's Revenge. Beaten favorite last time at this level. Gets a huge jock upgrade. Poor Jose Lascano still winless at Saratoga.
Speaker: um Probably going to see less than six to one. Maybe. I don't know. But... I just like the fact that this horse consistently can come off the pace and there's a lot of speed, early speed signed up in here.
Speaker: Got the two feminism, who's the two to one morning line favorite, the golden Irish, the four horse, the seven me mermaid magic, baddest grove, and the eight and the nine beach heist. They're all,
Speaker: you know, show early speed early in their career. And I'm just looking for a horse that, uh, can take advantage of hopefully a hot pace. So, um that's the only one that I kind of settled on was the three Helen's revenge.
Speaker: Um, do you have whether ah opinion um, how you'd view this race? Yeah, I mean, one reason why I don't really have a desire to bet the Whitney race 12 is because when I bet, I either have to be willing to bet against the favorite or the second favorite. kind of That's kind of where I'm at in vertical betting, and it's it's worked fairly well, I think, and I think it's good strategy, and that's what I use.
Speaker: And in this in the Whitney, i just I didn't hate the favorites. I didn't want to bet them, but I wasn't like I want to spend a lot of money against them. In this race, there are two favorites here, the two, Feminism, and the eight, Batisgarov, as you mentioned.
Speaker: I'm willing to take a swing against these horses and maybe they're just better and they win, but I'll start with the eight baddest Grove. These horses who, yeah, put up a big figure two back to Churchill Downs and against older. So you should like that. But I thought I had a fairly easy lead. The pace wasn't that fast. It just had everything her own way.
Speaker: Last time kind of stalked slash dueled with even money shot and won the race. So I don't know at Ellis park where speed is usually good. it was okay in the last effort, I guess, but yeah,
Speaker: three to one on that horse when, when the big figure that people are betting are because the setup was, was great. And the, um, race flow and all that was great. So I'm going to take a stab against that horse, even though William Walden wins everything. And the two feminism has run pretty well. Like, you know, i either upgrade or downgrade performances. Um, I thought Chewbac was,
Speaker: I had almost a perfect trip, so I was like, okay, maybe nothing special there. But then last race ran well. Dueled a three-to-one shot who won. um And that horse was off a layoff too, Mashala, if that's you pronounce it. So you know even though it was dueling a three-to-one shot, Mashala was off a layoff. Feminism wasn't. So feminism has an edge there.
Speaker: I don't know. I just against older now, like you said, which I don't care that much again about. But the fact is when you have a restricted race that the two is coming out of, it's not going to be as strong as one that's open to older horses, generally speaking. So I'm willing to take a shot against feminism. I'm definitely more scared of feminism than I am of a baddest grove. Uh, but so I'm willing to take a shot against you mentioned Helen's revenge. I think that horse has a good shot. And by this race 13, you'll see how the track is playing. And as long as you can come off the pace, uh, I think this horse has a decent shot. It upgraded the last, uh, race. I thought it was, uh, not much pace in that race still closed at this level. So I'm okay with Helen's revenge. I think the one romantic dancer as a shot,
Speaker: The downside to the one romantic dancer is she's been at this level for a while and has not won. And that can scare some people off. um however, has been running well at the level. Two back, stalked a 3-1 shot and came in last. So two back, that's the April 18th race, was really up on ah a sharp pace, then came off a little bit of a layoff. The mile, I don't, it's hard to say it was too far because this horse ran um ah one a mile in the 16th race, but, you know, it was off a little bit of a layoff. They added blinkers, and this is what I...
Speaker: text you earlier in the week. I'm surprised didn't love this horse because GQ loves second time blinkers. I'm a gaze-y angle that, you know, 30 years ago or 80 years ago. But but but yeah yeah yeah you sent me a still, the horse in the race, and the horse didn't have blinkers on. Oh, is that what we said? I remember looking that we couldn't figure it out. Did did your blister not have blinkers? Is that what it was? I forgot. right Yeah, because because Eric knows that second time blinkers is a favorite angle mine. He's like, oh, I know you like the one and the 13th. And I'm like guessing all these different what things. And he goes, no, it's obvious. And then he sends me his DRF page. It shows the horse ran with blinkers last time. I'm here like...
Speaker: Well, Bresnett doesn't show the horse that added blankers last time, so Eric watched his replay and took a screenshot of the horse and looked like the horse didn't have blankers, so I don't know what the deal was there.
Speaker: Yeah, so anyway, ignore that last comment then about the point group maybe, or you guys can watch your own replay. But so one, three is in my mix. I'm going use two other horses here as well. The five will not be swayed, 12 to one, Ricardo Santana. Don't ask me to pronounce the trainer's name, Shiv Miguel.
Speaker: uh lolita i believe i just my eyes are not the best and this print is very small so i hope i got that right uh but anyway uh these are those who i mean chubac ran really well i thought i mean wasn't gaining at the end it was 37 to 1 at this level but i thought ran really well and you know last race i don't know what happened last race but you can argue it was a wilton shoot and while it didn't appear to have trouble uh you know was far back early and I'm willing to forgive a race out of that Wilton shoot, especially 12 to one. The horse is like five to one. No, um maybe this horse just isn't that good and last race is more indicative. But if you take out the last race out of the Wilton shoot and you take out the turf races, you know, our last two other two dirt races are pretty good. So at a price when there could be pace in the race for once, I'm willing to use the five horse. And then the other horse I'm going use is the other William Walden. That's a nine horse who I have no idea if this horse can run on the dirt at all.
Speaker: But I watched the workout. I don't know what I'm looking at in workouts too much, but it looked fine to me. I mean, I'm kind of urged on the Gallup out to keep up. That worked out with Battist Grove, so you know you can watch it yourself on that XBTV. If you're into workouts, you can just wait for a DRF workout report or wherever you get, or you can ignore the workouts like many people do. But So I'm willing to take a shot the price of this horse to run the dirt, has some speed, but doesn't necessarily need the lead. Came up with pace a little bit too back. So awful layoff. So I don't, in a race, I don't love anyone. I'm willing to add that horse. So I'm basically one, three, five, nine here with, I, I would say the three or or the one would be my keys here. So how would I bet this race? Well, because I'm leaving out the two favorites, I'm happy to bet this race. I may be way off, but I'm happy to take a stab. So again, i would, everyone has a different budget, but for me, I would buy, it doesn't be a big bet, but I would box those four horses, one, three, five, nine. So that's one thing I would do. Then maybe I would box one, three, five, because I prefer them a little more than the nine.
Speaker: Then I might key either the one or the three, whoever the higher price is, let's say the three, because morning line is, I do three with one, five, nine in the exact. is And that's kind of how I'd attack this race. Exactus, triple, same thing.
Speaker: 50 cent triple bucks, $1.359 would cost me $12. Then I might do a central box $1.35 that only costs, what, $3, I think, if I did my math right. Then I might do three with $1.59, another 50 cent triple I think that's $9. And then maybe, well, I could do more even with the three on top, three with the 159, three on top, something like that. But that's kind of how I would bet this race, trying to beat the two favorites. And there's really no one else that interests me in this race that I want to use. So, you know, if I...
Speaker: Thought there was another long shot that had a chance that I maybe throw them in. And that's how I'd attack this race. And I know the two can win. Even the eight can win. I prefer the two. But I'm willing to play against them. And the pick five, if I'm playing it, I'm two deep in the first leg. I'm about four or five deep in the second leg. Here, I'd be four deep. One, three, five, eight. problem Oh, I'm sorry. One, three, five, nine. Probably trying to beat the favorites. And that means I might have to single the Whitney with either Baeza or even Nitrogen if i had to. Probably pick one of those.
Speaker: um if I want, because going to have to spread a little bit in the last race as we'll get to in a moment. So GQ, any comments, questions, concerns about race 13? Nope. We're moving on to the last leg of the Saturday late pick five Saratoga, which is final race of the day, race 14 mile three eighths on the inner turf, optional claimer for 55,000 nine winners. or One other than, There are 12 entered to run on the turf, two MTOs.
Speaker: Unfortunately, the 11 and 12 will need help getting in as they're AEs, which is significant because the 12, I believe, is the 3-to-1, would be the 3-to-1 morning line choice. um I landed on a few 8-to-1s, and there's a few 8-to-1s in here. ah My top one would be the eight. For some reason, I'm liking eight horses in the sequence. Mr. Tonic.
Speaker: The horse is just consistent. ah The last race at this level, who God knows what the hell went went on. But outside of that race, he's just been consistent with his speed figures and finishing and in the top four twice at this level has run very well when he, when he ran fourth, just back one and a half back in last year in September had some issues getting steadied and then three races back in may lost by three quarters to the morning line favorite. Who's on the AE.
Speaker: He gets JC back in the irons. And, um, just the fact that, you know, he's a seven year old, he's been consistent.
Speaker: I'm going to forgive that last race, whatever happened. And, uh, um, just play, play the fact that you're going to get a good price on a horse that's consistent at this level. And I think, uh, uh, he can be the winner. The other horse that I like is the one horse Rothschild, um,
Speaker: Not bad off of a first you know first race after an 11-month layoff. I think um the added blinkers, the scary thing is one for 14 lifetime.
Speaker: But you war had a freshening on on the turf. Got a decent turf workout to on the Saratoga turf to re-familiarizing with the Saratoga turf.
Speaker: And even though, once again, 1 for 14, 0 for 9 on the turf lifetime, Eric is Rothschild, a horse that you'd avoid um in you know putting on top.
Speaker: No, I wouldn't avoid the horse. I can't say I love the horse in this spot, but I wouldn't avoid the horse. The horse is coming off a three-wide trip last time and you know was a layoff and all, so has an excuse for a last race at this level. my I guess my concern would be the distance. It did run fairly long Kentucky Downs if you go way back to August of 2024 and was finishing pretty well, so you want to use that as an argument. The horse can get the distance, but... um I would lean to horses that I'm more confident getting the distance, but I don't really have a strong opinion here.
Speaker: The two horse, Capital Partner, is the favorite for Chad Brown and Flavian Pratt. And I think you have to decide what you want to do with that horse. It's not an overwhelming favorite, although it might be a little shorter than 72. I mean, I shouldn't say that. 72 is fair price, I guess.
Speaker: ah This horse who was a two-year-old was putting up big numbers in graded stakes, granted two-year-old races, but i mean those numbers as two-year-olds were as good as some of these horses running as three, four, and five-year-olds. Obviously, raised big chance here and came off a layoff last time and was very rank and checked early. so the the two maybe the two is just better than these i don't know capital partner my concern and your concern for the two i think we talked about this is the distance we don't really know what the horse go the distance now looking up the breeding it looks like the horse shouldn't have a problem the mom ran long in europe so you think and chad brown is is good with these so you would think it wouldn't be an issue maybe but these horses rank all the time and if the horses rank again
Speaker: Do you want to go a mile and three eighths fighting your rider for a quarter of the race? to have anything left for the stretch. So anytime I can find it's funny if it was like a 10 to one or 12 to one shot, I'm trying to find reasons to include the horse.
Speaker: But when they're a short price, I'm trying to find any reason not to use a horse. So for that reason, I'll probably try and beat the two capital partner here, although I don't really have a strong opinion. uh, in this race. So, uh, I know you mentioned Rothschild, you mentioned Miser Tonic. I'm not a huge fan of either, but I'm not against either wildly. Uh, the two horses I would lean on here probably would be the four Versailles road and the six very connected. And I'll just speak briefly. So Versailles road, I'm not worried about the distance, uh, for that horse because he's run well at this distance before or similar distance, actually one for one at a mile and three eighths, one broke maiden two back. Ran okay. It looks like he had an easy lead, but he was pressed some by a 6-1 shot who came in 7th out of 8 horses that race. Here's Johnny, came out of that race, and then he came back to win whatever stakes race that we were talking about earlier that a few of them came out of. was in Belmont Derby whatever. or the Saranac. I forgot what race. So it was a live race in that response. And then last time, Versailles Road was very tight early and found himself probably further back than Tyler wanted to be in that race and never, well, too wide, too wide, and then saved ground the last turn. So it wasn't like a wide trip or anything. But I just think this horse, if
Speaker: He didn't get squeezed back or or was tight tight earlier, would be closer and had a better chance in that race. And the six horse very connected, partially because I don't like anyone else. And partially because the one turf race was back last year as a two-year-old. Now it's at Kentucky down, so it's hard to...
Speaker: know what to do with Kentucky Downs for him. But the horse came in third that day, back August 31st last year, Kentucky Downs, and had a very, very wide trip and was still running on some at the end. So to me, if that's the only turf race,
Speaker: That's not a terrible effort. And if you look, the horse kind of ran similar on turf and dirt because he ran a 47 by around the dirt, then the 54 in Kentucky downs and the 63 for looking at buyers at Churchill next time. Plus I upgraded that 54. So my point is that I think this horse ran similarly on the turf.
Speaker: as he did on the dirt back then. And if you go two back to the Churchill race, May 2nd, the dirt race for the six, very connected. That race, I know he came in seventh, but it was against a good field. He was 22 to one and probably a big speed figure. So last race hit the gate on the dirt at Ellis, had a wide trip.
Speaker: And yeah, it was nowhere, but you're not going to win at Ellis hitting the gate, spotting the field, some lens there, and having a wide trip. So that just trip was a disaster. I would just throw that out off a very short layoff too. but So I'm willing to take a stab with the six, very connected. So in this race, I would lean mostly on the four and six. I can talk about one or two others maybe in what I do in a pick five or vertical, but those are the two horses I'm leaning to, the four, Versailles Road, the six, very connected.
Speaker: GQ? Yeah, I just have a question. What was the buyer of that last? say a couple A couple of them in here ran that mile and a half race at Saratoga at this level. Seems like the brisnet numbers were really inflated. Where did did the.
Speaker: It was the July 5th. first See, like Versailles Road and the Seven Complex Agenda, they they ran in the same race.
Speaker: And to me, mean, like Versailles Road went from 79 brisnet to 99, which is really, really high. to a ninety- nine which is really really high Uh, did it is the difference in the the buyer numbers from Versailles roads last race to the previous race, like 10 points maybe or more?
Speaker: No, it was almost identical, maybe one or two points higher. Wow. That's it. so And that's the thing. I was like, I wasn't believing that number, the BrizNet number, because it it was kind of ridiculous, ridiculously high. Yeah, I'm looking at the – ridiculous? I'm looking at the BrizNet – I'm sorry, the time form figures, and they also were very similar for the race before. In fact, no change really for either one of them. Oh, okay. Yeah. And Brisbane just likes him. So if you're betting with Brisbane, you're probably going to be like, Ooh, four and six. Right. tomorrow If you're betting with something else, I'm looking at you like, eh, I don't know if i agree with him, but again, I have my reasons for it. So those are my main two. Is there, before I just finish up the race or anything? Well, I mean, for, for, for people who agree with you or like very connected, I'm not too sure about the turf breeding, but you can't, you can't argue that he's got talent. I mean, Kentucky jockey club.
Speaker: He ran behind further ado. He ran behind, chip honcho, not getting, you know, embarrassed. So the the horse obviously has talent. Um, obviously, you know, takes blinkers off whether or not that's going to change matters, uh, to, and revert back to his two year old, uh, campaign when he didn't run with blinkers. But, uh,
Speaker: that That was my only slight knock of not not wanting to use very connected. i just questioned. And the one Kentucky Downs race, um the the number wasn't real strong.
Speaker: So I could be very wrong on very connected. But dumb other than that, I have nothing else to add um other than the fact that last week I was remiss forgetting to thank um
Speaker: Equa Brief for posting the podcast on Equa Brief, which is kind of a one-stop shopping for all news on horse racing stuff. Uh, if you want to go out to Equibrieff, uh, app, it's free.
Speaker: You can find, uh, uh, the podcast out there along with a bunch of other, websites, uh, um, uh, podcast news on, um, horse racing.
Speaker: But, uh, Wanted to to thank TK again for coming in. um Hopefully next week maybe we can get a handicapping guest, do you think?
Speaker: We can work on it. can nice ah I hate to be rude. Can I just finish up on the race real quick? Even though you're wrapping up the show. I had asked you if you had anything. No, no, I didn't hear you if you did. I'm sorry. So – I'll be real quick. Finish up the race and then lead into pick five All right. So the other horse i'm I'm thinking of using, the nine Stark, I know has to run faster and it's coming off a maiden win.
Speaker: I was just very visually impressed with this horse after a slight hop at the start. Just won so easily and maybe just beat a lot weaker. But in a race where I'm concerned about some for the distance, I'm not with Stark and he's a price as well. And then caught And this leads into the pick five because I'm really not using too many short prices in this pick five. I'm i'm almost beating chalk in just about it. Other than to determine this, it was not like a heavy chalk. I'm probably leaving out the chalk in every other leg. So I'll probably throw in capital partner even though –
Speaker: ah you know He's not ah a huge favorite here, and I think this horse still has decent shot. and That's why I'm reluctant to bet the race vertically because I don't know what to do with capital partner that much, and usually when I'm not sure I leave out. But there's a world where I see this horse just much better than these and gets a good trip from the inside with Pratt. So in the pick five, I'd like to use the 2-4-6-9-1.
Speaker: six nine And if I can throw in a couple others, I might, but those are the main four I'm going to use out of this race. So, you know, just wrapping up a a potential pick five, you know, if I'm too deep in the first leg with deterministic, the the five and the capital of the six, I'm about...
Speaker: Four or five deep in the second leg, basically leaving out a lot of short prices there as well. Again, you can go back and listen to who i said. I know it was like the one, the five, the nine. and the seven.
Speaker: Yeah, probably the seven and possibly the six, so like four or five deep there. Yeah. That's mostly what I'll do. I could see adding the 10 horse if ah if I have enough price elsewhere. But, you know, so we're talking about two deep, maybe like five deep-ish, something like that, four to six deep in the second leg. In the third leg, which is the Whitney, again, you know, I would like to use nitrogen, Baeza, and antiquarian, but I might just choose a single layer. So I don't have three deep there in race 13, since I'm beating the chalk, when I'm beating the chalk, I don't mind spreading in a race. That's kind of you know, unless I really feel strong about someone. So in race 13, I'm one, three, five, nine. So I'm four deep there. So I'm two by, let's say five three.
Speaker: Let's say one if I single the Whitney by four. And then I mentioned four in the last leg here, race 14, which is the two, four, six, nine. So what's that? Two by five is 10.
Speaker: By one is still 10. By four is, what's that, 40? by four is 160, but divided by two. So that's like an $80 ticket. That's kind of what I'm kicking around right now to be about $80 at one main ticket. And I know there's all this ABC methods and stuff like that, which we're over and well over an hour. So maybe we'll talk more about that next week. And formulating different tickets as far as um your your pick five goes. But that's like my main spready ticket. I'm more of been a spready ticket and impressed with who I like than using A's and B's. And if I have this horse, I have seven horses and another leg. And if I have this horse, I have six horses another leg. So we'll get into that next week because we really have no time. So why don't we why don't we finish up? I think you already said your final piece, but anything else?
Speaker: Nope, that's it. all right time well Time to say ta-ta. Yes, we had some technical difficulties. We hope the interview with TK came out. If not, you won't know what we're talking about, but we hope it came out okay. So thank you, TK, for coming on. Really appreciate It's been a while since I've ah seen or talked to you, so that was nice to catch up briefly before we went on.
Speaker: And that's pretty much it. Good luck at the races this weekend. Ta-ta.
