Transcript
Speaker: Hello, and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium. Gary Quill and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
Speaker: Hey, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the king of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ, how be you? I am wonderful, Eric. Welcome to September. We are actually recording this. so ah on Tuesday night, way before morning line.
Speaker: and um Yeah. uh Thanks again. Uh, Timonium, the grand opening of Timonium's seven -day meet. It was last weekend.
Speaker: all right Eric came down with our friend Big Tim. Big Tom at the Big T. And it it was a good time. and Thank you. i i Did my one error. Racing Analysis and Eric.
Speaker: Took a few pictures, a video of myself. and I'll try not to break my arm patting myself on the back, but the tip sheet that I've been putting it putting out, the first day I didn't designate a best bet.
Speaker: But on Saturday and Sunday, I designated a best bet and they both won. One paid $9, the other one paid... Let's put it in sports betting terms. Minus 200. So...
Speaker: But he was three it was five to two morning line. It wasn't that it was a bad morning line. It was that the favorite got scratched, so it killed the price. But no, I'm really excited for that. And I just saw online um that... ah One of the racing analysts for the Maryland Jockey Club.
Speaker: Cali Francois. has been given the position at Twin Spires of host, analyst, and whatever. on Twinspire, so...
Speaker: That opens up a seat at Laurel slash Pimlico Maryland Racing. so I would have to think I'm at least 53rd on the list of candidates.
Speaker: I'm thinking that maybe though. Maryland Jockey Club has not been... Doing a good job convincing people who do not live in Maryland. to come to Maryland for that job.
Speaker: So, um It's probably because they pay about the same as what a Walmart greeter probably... ah makes so uh If that's the case, so be it. But hey!
Speaker: ah If... you get bored or if it's in between races at Kentucky Downs, Saratoga, or any of the other dozen tracks that you'd rather be watching races for.
Speaker: If you ever see Timonium, it's about 15 minutes of post. Tune in and you'll see my ugly mug for about... what 30 seconds and then the camera goes off of us and you'll just have to hear us talk and that's the last thing i want to say so but i will i tweet at a tweet Boy, am I getting old. I post on X.
Speaker: my Timonium tip sheet. so Look for it. ah Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this weekend. All right, so now that though we took up four minutes of the opening, Eric.
Speaker: Do you have anything to say? No, I had a lot of fun at Timonium, so he's, uh... Pleasure to go down there. You do a nice job on the...
Speaker: feed with uh the rest of the crew mckenzie and frank and who am i missing emily emily so it was nice and you know it's nice when i can bet a hundred dollars on a horse and make them go from uh eight to one to two to five so no okay i won't do that there but uh i bet a couple raises i actually made a couple dollars on uh the couple raises i bet so i was very happy and who did i put robin graham i think one uh was over 60 as a trainer yes i bet her to win and she wins first time so uh robin graham is listening i think you owe me uh
Speaker: You know, like... Dinner or... Something that I put you in the winner's circle. But, no, it's always fun. And I'm sorry I didn't get a chance to walk out to the fair again. I never really do. But one of these days I'm going to walk out to the fair. But I'm hoping that Timonium doesn't always end up running during Kentucky Downs in Saratoga. Unfortunately, it does. But it's still fun to go down there and combat the different tracks and watch Timonium 2. Well, we're just hoping that next year Timonium actually runs. Uh -oh.
Speaker: There's rumblings of... ah
Speaker: higher ops not wanting to give Timonium those Seven days are so precious. so Well, I hope that's not the case. Because after all, Laurel is going to compete against Kentucky Downs in Saratoga. Those two weekends. Give me a break. So, yeah, I just put the nail on the coffin for getting that position as racing analyst. Yes, yes.
Speaker: Burn your bridges there. Well, if they hired you, they'd get a lot more ah betting. at la I'd bet a lot more. and i'm I can... See that? Yeah. Increase the pools there? so Unfortunately, I...
Speaker: i unfortunately i had heard that the the the handle compared to the last couple of years was actually down. And for some reason... i I noticed from the parking lots that it was down, so I don't know if there was something else going on. but it It did seem like a lighter crowd than in the past.
Speaker: Hmm. I don't know why, but... Anyway, it was fun. I hope they continue. A dozen listeners. You know, I beg you, just put $2 on... something in one of the eight or nine races this weekend.
Speaker: to Uh, Keep Timonium open for future. Well... I hope that's the case. and Kentucky Downs opened last weekend. I like Kentucky Downs. I just...
Speaker: First day is Saturday, I think. I didn't do... All that well there actually the first race. I loved that 13 that drew in Singled him in the pick five had a nice win bet so it did well on that race and start off with a single in the pick five and it was downhill from there i didn't bet every race i don't over there but The reason I bet I did not do great. And then Sunday I got...
Speaker: A lot of it back. I did okay there, but I saw him and had like a huge, huge score at Kentucky Downs. So looking forward to hopefully getting off that Schneider. But like we were talking about before we went on, it's...
Speaker: 100 degrees there every day it seems so who knows i know they move some races from thursday and by the time you're listening to this you might already know the answer to this but Hopefully they run on Thursday.
Speaker: over the weekend, but with that heat. It's possible they don't. So we decided to cover Sarantoga as a result because... We're pretty confident they'll run in Saratoga. Weather looks really good. And we're looking at the late pick five on Saturday. Was there anything else before we get into it, TQ?
Speaker: Now we can go on. I guess I can. Take it over from here. and Do the... intros as usual. I did notice you told me about Kentucky Downs. I did notice Ed DeRosa.
Speaker: He had... um Post it on X The like first weekend handle. of for Kentucky Downs because there was a lot. And it was mainly just a win -play -show handle.
Speaker: Because yeah everybody's there like, oh, they're going to lose better than all that. and I kind of like what Ed said. prior after they made the decision it's like Okay, like if 50 % of people...
Speaker: people. Don't bet it because it's a $5 minimum versus two. The handle is still going to go up. Because that person, 50 % of the people who still bet are no longer betting $2 a win. They're betting $5 a win. The handle's going to go up.
Speaker: and actually it did go up it uh i forget the exact figures but it it was a healthy increase so Hey, kudos to Tucky Downs. I wonder how much running... During Saratoga, because I don't think they've done that in the past. or Maybe they have. Yeah, I was surprised as well.
Speaker: But I don't know if that would help or hurt. Originally, I'm like, eh, it'll probably hurt them, but... Then again, so many people vending the Travers and they might be looking for another track, especially people at OTBs and stuff like that around the country. and They don't want to sit 35 minutes in between races at Saratoga, so Kentucky Downs might be appealing. So maybe it helped. I don't know. I wish they would wait a little while to start the meet, but... They don't. If anything, they pushed it up, which I don't love, but...
Speaker: We'll see what happens this weekend. Hopefully they can ah they can run a little bit. Right, yeah.
Speaker: So anyway. And, you know, I got fooled by the Power Mutual looking up one time at the Kentucky Downs feed, and I saw a horse pay $104. I'm like, damn, a 50 -to -1 one. I'm like, no, that's based on $5. And I'll be honest. I didn't know it. I mean, I might have heard it, but I don't remember that. So I actually posted something. Even though I corrected the post a few minutes later, I got a million tweets about it.
Speaker: That's on $5. I didn't know. Thank you for those who corrected me nicely out there. But yeah, I really didn't even realize that they were doing that. So I was like, whoa, I was not paying enough attention to the. Race is there. We were at Timonium. I was watching a little bit, but not really focusing that much on Sunday as well. So anyway...
Speaker: ah Speaking of Twitter or X, I'm BanditsER. That's BanditsER. And GQ is at horseracingnut. at horse racing nut. You got the nut part right, so that's good. that Yeah, that's your name. but Seriously, if you could, I mean, I don't care if you want to follow us or not, but if you could like our podcast, rate our podcast. We never really say this because I never think to.
Speaker: but for some reason it came to mind more people can find it all that stuff so if you don't mind just uh like follow etc we really appreciate it more people can find it we can grow a little bit Anyway. Y 'all ready for this?
Speaker: all right we're ready yeah and as far as finding on any any platform that has podcasts. It also can be found on Equibrief app or website. if you go If you use the app, it's... absolutely free so it's Equi -Brief.
Speaker: along with many other publications. TDN. Pollock Report. other other ones. So, okay. So without further ado, we're... Yeah. Almost 10 minutes in, and we're getting started on the late pick five on Saturday, September 5th. It's Labor Day weekend.
Speaker: The late pick five at Saratoga starts in race eight. It is the 1 and 1 16th mile. on the inner turf for two -year -old maidens.
Speaker: And there are... 13 signed up. to our mtos which will be scratched based on the, forward -looking forecast.
Speaker: And we have no idea what the morning line is, but... I think it might be safe to say that the five -related party will be the morning line favorite. What do you say here?
Speaker: um Yeah, it's probably between him. Maybe the cocksource the three horse will will probably be one of the favorites I'm guessing those are the two that would be the two favors just looking quickly. I didn't write down a morning. Well too hard Just for the fact that the horse cost a million dollars, do you think...
Speaker: Todd's horse on the 10 framer. is going to get some love. i guess it all it and And the $1 .5 million resolution racing purchase of the flight line Um...
Speaker: Bye. You know what? oh Oh, I got the advanced workout report. You don't have to wait until Saturday for them. Run through them real quick. Persuasion. All the first -time starters got to be.
Speaker: There you go. like Unless the trainer is like one for 100, the first -time starters, I'm sure that one got a C. Okay. She's having a little fun at the DRF workout reports where everyone seems to get a B-, minus but and B if you're really good. So anyway, ah
Speaker: going through this race is actually listen it's really hard for a couple reasons i actually got into this meet these two -year -old races i usually don't like them But the fact that so many workouts are published now or the visuals are published on that XBTV workout or First Bet, whatever it is,
Speaker: I really enjoy watching the workouts now. I check who they work against and and check on Equibase to see if they've run before, how they've run. And I think it's really helped me, this meat, do a lot better.
Speaker: ah Not relying on DRF workout reports as much. because everyone sees those so I can kind of judge for my own. And a lot of times they they kind of line up my thoughts. So there was one or two words on here in here who really worked well, I thought, and i'm I'm excited about. But I will say... most of these or more than half did not have workouts that were televised on xbtv there so i couldn't really watch too many of the workouts so i kind of want to run through Maybe some of the fields here. The one pass on by, Shug McGahee.
Speaker: He's only had, believe it or not in the last five years, one horse. to go from dirt Ch -churf. Second start. In a maiden special weight. Going a route of ground only one horse. It was in 2022 horse came in second So he doesn't do it often But this horse is probably turf mint. The mom was all turf. my madam mia I can't read it again. Sorry, I say this every week. but
Speaker: my eyesight's not great and these fonts are like six fonts on the pp so uh but anyway uh the horse It's Mata Muha.
Speaker: Thank you very much.
Speaker: And ah the dad, not this time, is pretty good. with uh turf routers so i think pass on by not only that but has a race under her belt ah his belt which i think is an advantage too so while i can't say i love the one i think that's a horse i would probably want to use depending on the price here the two cats in the cradle is going to be a bomb i'm not really that interested but if you are great i couldn't see the workout on august 24th i'll check the workout reports unless they're really good i'm probably not using that horse but it's going to be a bomb The three is the Cox first timer. Cox is very good with these. In fact,
Speaker: Over the last, I believe it's five years, in first -time starter routes on the turf For two -year -olds at Saratoga. Cox is... Five wins and eight starts at 63 % he's hitting.
Speaker: The problem is he's going to be one of the favorites, but there's a horse who... If you want to just survive here, you might want to use. So I'll probably, unless the horse is ridiculously short of price, one in three. The four didn't really run very much first out. Again, big price. I won't talk to y 'all for no interest. The five were leading in party. Chad Brown does much better second out his first out numbers.
Speaker: Chad Brown. going a route of ground, two -year -old on the turf. In a maiden special, way he wins at 12%. Second out made in special weight on the turf going around the ground. He wins at 30%.
Speaker: So like GQ said, this very well, especially with Pratt, will be the favorite most likely. or right there. But the horse probably has a pretty good shot of winning this race Uh just looking at his first race. He was too right in the first turn saved around the second term He was slightly rank for a little bit. He was slightly...
Speaker: um shuffle back early He really didn't gain much at the end, which I didn't love. But he had a little bit of issue. And, again, he's probably going to improve a lot second out. So related parties are going to be tough in here. The sixth, the Pleasure Horse, is a half. That stock rising is a half to Golden Powell. Golden Powell won the Breeders' Cup. cup turf sprint so definitely some breeding there and like you said the horse costs 1 .5 million dollars
Speaker: So you're like, well, he's half to ah a... uh big sprinter golden pal did not go long however another sibling on the mom's side went along and got a mile so maybe the mile won't be a huge issue here um maybe shipment is two for five with first time starters that's the damn so Like I said, a lot of it's going to be odds related, but I'm sure the six will be one of the favorites too and probably take...
Speaker: a good amount of money uh the seven new york red ferrara wasn't really interested but a price if you like them we skipped the eight for a second the nine i thought the nine's workout was not bad ah The time was slow, August 24, but I thought the work was...
Speaker: pretty decent so At a price, I'm guessing about 15 to 1, maybe higher, probably 20 to 1 -ish. The nine lithos might be on some of my tickets. The 10 -framer who GQ referenced, the Pletcher horse, who cost $1 million, dollars not the most expensive horse in the field, but framer, the 10 -horse. I was able to see that work. Now, it was on the dirt, but this horse was hard -held while his foe was urged some to keep up.
Speaker: And he out finished the foe as well. So I thought frame around a really good work last time out August 30th on the dirt Now we'll see the turf. I don't know This is the first fall for way to way too pretty.
Speaker: uh constitution's okay turf routing so i'm not really sure but again unless the horse is really short price i have interest in the 10. uh the 11 Christophe Clement. Easy. Excellent!
Speaker: with these uh horses he doesn't have a huge sample size he took over for his father not all that long ago, but he wins it 30 % with a 339 ROI in two -year -old maiden special weight turf routes.
Speaker: uh first time out so the 11 renegade spirit looks pretty good and manny franco is riding great the problem is i don't want to use all those horses really to start a pick five six deep or something like that uh but the horse i really wanted to mention was the eight horse, Christopher Wall. Now,
Speaker: Shockingly, this is a horse who, you know, you see Bill Mott first time out. It's almost like a fool's errand to pick him. In fact, he's one for 55. with two -year -old Rout or is going on the chart first out.
Speaker: Uh, made in special weight. One for 55 is awful. So if you want to get rid of them, that's fine. If it's a short price, I probably wouldn't, uh, want to take too short a price. However, I love the workouts.
Speaker: Love the last workout. um he He was just like a monster. I wrote gobbled up foes. I think they were like I didn't write it down, but I think there were like three other horses working with him. I think we worked with three horses. It was like a, almost like a practice race there. And he sat behind him and just gobbled him up without trying. I mean, I was so impressed with that workout. So the eight Christopher wool.
Speaker: Pretty much definitely be on my tickets I don't think the horse would be all that short even the workout reports like B plus or something like that So I definitely want to go in the eight
Speaker: it's probably not a race I want to bet. If I do bet it, if the eight's a little bit of a price, maybe I'll take a win bet on the eight. Pick five is tough if we're talking about that, because again, it really depends on the other legs, but I hate to go like six or seven deep, especially when I'm using the favorites just to survive the first leg. When you can just bet a pick four, even though there is a higher take on the pick four. So I have to make some decisions in the pick five. I'm not really sure. But out of the horses I mentioned, the one, three, five, six.
Speaker: eight nine ten eleven that's eight horses you know maybe leave out some of the shorter prices hope like if the cox horse is really short maybe i'll just leave that horse out and try and beat him so a lot of it is the odds here uh but If anything, I would try and maybe leave out the short prices like the three. If the six is a short price, maybe go against them.
Speaker: but it's really hard to talk about this race other than I did like the eight a lot. All right, sorry. I just wanted to run through the field. I thought that was easier than just mentioning one or two quickly, so sorry. I think that was perfect for this type type of field. I just see...
Speaker: you know i um Am I wrong in thinking that... When you spend $1 .5 million dollars on... Uh... Yearling. That.
Speaker: You're targeting turf?
Speaker: Yeah, but the mom and the damn side. I mean, if you have a half to golden pal, you might say, Hey, that's true. Yeah. golden pal I wouldn't worry about it. You might be right in general, but I wouldn't worry about it. Okay. Yeah, that would be my only question, Mark. you know and And for the most part, when...
Speaker: Horses are targeted in these mile or longer races. first time out or when they're young. that It's kind of a red flag that they have no early speed.
Speaker: right and maybe off what yeah or I'm sorry to cut you off, but this this is the sixth stock rising. I watched the works on the dirt, and I honestly wasn't that impressed. I wrote okay. like If I were a DRF, I'd give it a B - probably like they always do. I wasn't that impressed, but you know maybe the horse doesn't have a ton of speed, so those short works.
Speaker: plus the dirt is not his thing. But again, the six is a short price. I'm probably going to try and beat. If the three is too short, I'll probably try and beat the three. I guess the five out of the three, five, six, assuming they're the three favorites, maybe the 10 will be in the mix for the favoritism, but I think those three would be ahead of him.
Speaker: I would probably lean towards the five, the one who ran before as far as using one of those three if I was picking one of them. Yeah. Sounds good. All right, we'll move on to the second leg, which is race nine on Saturday at Saratoga.
Speaker: It's five and a half furlong on the turf. ah one other than allowance $120 ,000. There are. 10 signed on. to go to post the 10, number 10 is main track only.
Speaker: So... um We talked to... briefly before we started recording. We feel that the three... Or the eight could be the...
Speaker: post time slash morning line favorite. Yeah, I would think those are going to be the two favorites. and And the other thing we mentioned was the one anyway. Just ran August 29th. So I'm really not sure. Maybe some of you out there have been paying attention on social media or you've heard that he's running or not running here.
Speaker: But... Linda does come back on short rest and does really well on short rest. So maybe the one will run anyway, but there's a good chance he's out and he would probably be amongst the favorites, even though he's never been on the turf. So that would really hurt the odds on the three and eight, if any way is scratched.
Speaker: Well, um the one did have a similar turnaround if you look back. Toward the bottom, February 26th. Sick. 7th and then came back and ran on March uh seven February has 28 days, so...
Speaker: Nine days later, uh or eight eight days later Came back to running a stake. They have to run in. Third, yeah. Um... All right. you know optional claimer.
Speaker: Yeah, it's not um you know outside of the realm of possibility that it will not scratch. Yeah, and I don't know if Linda has a chance to win the owner the the training title. ah Her and Chad, i print I don't know when I printed this, so...
Speaker: Let's see. Where's Chad on my thing here?
Speaker: He had 36 as of the printing of this, and Linda had 31. Now this is Saturday, so if she catches up a little, maybe she's just trying to get the title and throwing horses in as much as possible. So maybe she will run the horse. I kind of hope the horse runs because... Even though it can win or he can win, I hate when people say it. There's at least one podcast that always calls horses it, and I can't listen because of it because I feel like you're treating them like commodities. and I care a little more about horses. But anyway, ah no pun intended because that's the name of the horse. the One could win the race.
Speaker: But it's never been on the turf. Linda's 0 for 19 first time turf In ah allowance races. So I just... you know I would bet against the horse if it's a short price he's a short price. but I guess the horse could win. It's not like the toughest field here. But like you said, I think it's really...
Speaker: Other than maybe anyway, it's kind of a two -horse field here between the three Ortley Avenue and the eight Brightline Bullet. And while I'm skeptical, usually i ah to take the horse that doesn't have the speed, and usually I would want the horse with speed.
Speaker: I like the eight here, bright line bullet. A lot of it's going to be price dependent, but... Unless the eight is a crazy or a lot shorter than the three, I'm going to lean toward the eight here for a couple of reasons. Number one. I think there is some speed in this race. Maybe not like... guns blazing speed but the two grunge The four, imagine John, they have some speed to keep.
Speaker: Orton Lee Avenue, the three, maybe a little busy up front. Orton Lee Avenue ran okay last time. He was coming off a layoff, and he wasn't clear until the turn, really. So he had to work to get there. It looks like he had an easy lead. He didn't really have an easy lead the whole way.
Speaker: ah So he ran fine for off the layoff and could improve. However, I just thought Brightline Bullet ran the better race with all the trouble that Brightline Bullet had. Got off to a slow start. Had to wait some on the term turn. And then the rail kind of closed off to him in the stretch there. He got totally stuck in the 16th. I know it does say pause 16th. He got totally stuck.
Speaker: uh... He did save ground, but I thought he had a ton of trouble. Again, I talked about this last week. You don't want to take courses always coming out of... uh or having bad starts but um So this horse has gotten out of the gate. Not great.
Speaker: But... I think even despite that, as long as the horse doesn't like totally walk out of the gate, I'm okay with it. so Assuming the price is somewhat similar, I'm going to lean eight bright line bullet. The three or the avenue looks pretty good though. And I don't really see anyone else as a major threat. Like the nine after taxes, he had a little trouble last time. He's not terrible here, but I just think the top two are better.
Speaker: I don't really have anyone else that ah that I like here. So, As far as betting the race, it's probably not a race I'm going to bet. I've talked about this in the past, but... If I like a favorite... I really don't want to bet the race.
Speaker: unless I don't like the second and or third favorite. So I don't dislike the second favorite, Ortley Avenue. So it's probably not a race I'm going to bet because I don't want to bet against Hortley Avenue. I don't want to bet 8 -3. I'm not going to get any money out of that. and I have to be like totally right. When you bet in two chalks like that, it's just not my kind of bet there. So I'm probably not going to be betting this race. As far as like a pick five goes, as though...
Speaker: The decisions made. Could I go 3 -8, the two heavy chalks? And again, let's assume anyway is not there. Can I go 3 -8? The two heavy chalks. I mean, you can, and there's a good chance you get through the race. The problem is...
Speaker: If you do that, you really have to pick up some value elsewhere. and Unless you're singling like a price or throwing out a lot of chalks in the other leg, it's just not worth it. and For those who question why, like wait, you can survive the race.
Speaker: The reason is because even if you get through this race, chances are you're going to lose a pick five. I mean, you're going to hit under 50 % on your pick fives, way under 50 % on your pick fives. So the more times you do that and double your bet by adding the second horse, and even if you're right this race, you lose another leg, you just waste it, like double your money by adding a second horse. And think about all the losing bets you've made in pick fives, and you're just doubling your bet, each of those losers. Yeah, you might hit here and there, but it's just not worth it. So I'd probably just go with the eight and the pick five, unless, like I said,
Speaker: I... our friend ITP says, unless you're being a hero in another leg, I remember him using that term. So unless you are. Bye. singling an eight to one shot or six to one even, or or higher, or you're getting rid of like three favorites in one or two races, then you want to go three, eight. i am I'm okay with it, but otherwise I'm just going to lean to the eight. I like him a little better than the three here.
Speaker: Sounds good. um I... The only horse that I'd want to mention, you mentioned a little bit. on the outside after taxes. The fact that the post -draw and...
Speaker: It's last two races. was on the far outside, got a good break, was able to... Move. ah On the outside and clear. and get it a nice forward position.
Speaker: I didn't watch the replay. Maybe you did. um Stuck down on the rail. Probably had to go and... and was beaten to, you know, the lead and just kind of.
Speaker: because it it it says bobbled at the break so that's probably why he wasn't able to get out so I would think Dylan Davis is going you know with the outside post is going to – The...
Speaker: More. more forwardly placed and maybe give a better account. ah of himself at probably a little better price than the 7 -2, he went off last time.
Speaker: Just my two cents. But I agree with you. I would take the eight in this. race So moving on to leg three, race 10 on Saturday at Saratoga.
Speaker: It's a mile and an eighth on the... Dirt. ah allowance, $120 ,000 non -winners, one other than a field of 11. And...
Speaker: I'm really not sure who. Might be the favorite. Um... I might be leaning toward... uh The three horse counting.
Speaker: the Coxhorse, the four. Lion of Justice. Or even... the Nine horse. Uh, No, he wouldn't be favorite just based on that last race. but Okay, I'll go with either the three or the four.
Speaker: um And then later on, I'll tell you why I kind of like. the nine. Heh. All right. And I think the five will take a lot of money here to preside off the maiden win, but I put up some huge buyer figures. So I think that horse will take a lot of money here too. I honestly couldn't tell you who's going to go off favorite between the three, four and five.
Speaker: Uh... It's going to be one of those three, in my opinion, and I think they'll be the top three in the betting. I don't know. We'll talk about those three because I think the race kind of... Nothing goes through them, but you got to know what you're doing with those horses and maybe mention a few others here. So do you want me to start out?
Speaker: Yeah, you go ahead. All right. so I actually like the three. It's courting, not counting, but I like the three courting. Oh, sorry. yeah That's okay. And again, a lot of this, we're talking almost a week before the race. We don't know, A, the morning line, which is pretty accurate, and B, we don't really know what the horse is going to go off. you know Even if we see a morning line, I might say, oh, I love courting.
Speaker: and let's say they make them seven to two on the morning line i'm like all right i'm okay with that And then we go to the race and the horse is six to five, things change. I don't think that'll be the case here. But so please bear that in mind when we're talking about these horses. But um I like courting. My one fear is kind of what I said last race with the eight horse. The horse has not been the greatest out in the gate here.
Speaker: ah Last time, time to go. I kind of got totally wiped out at the start. Witch. wasn't really his fault too much. So I don't want to hold it too much against him, but he got wiped out horribly. And then he got cut off again in the stretch a little bit. So that was Corning's last race, and that was in the Wooden Memorial. now The Wood Memorial did set up for closers, but still, I thought the horse ran ah a bang -up race. Now, he's been off since then, and I didn't really love the August 29th work. I wish I liked it a little better.
Speaker: But this horse comes off the pace and, you know, if he was a speed horse and he looked not great in the workout, I'd be a little more worried because this horse should have speed and is not really showing it in the workout. But the fact this horse comes off the pace and maybe he's not a great workout horse anyway, I don't know. And maybe I just interpreted the workout wrong, possibly too. But I have a plus sign on all of this horse's races, basically, where I can upgrade the races big time. Too bad, had an awkward start with the blinkers on. Maybe the blinkers ah hurt. Had a three -wide trip. That was in the Risen Star. Even in the Remsen, got bumped, squeezed at the start. Was three -wide against some monsters, Paladin and Renegade. We know Renegade, how good he's been throughout the year. And Paladin was one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby. That was in the Remsen. So I like courting a lot. Yeah, there is a layoff to deal with. But I think there's some speed in this race. And I'm kind of a big fan here.
Speaker: ah The four Lion of Justice, I'm not necessarily against Lion of Justice. Coming off a... Lengthy Layoff what was that, like over a year layoff last time, right? for Brad Fox.
Speaker: I just didn't think it ran all that well. I mean, it wasn't like a bad race. Got an 86 by or two, but I had a good trip. Didn't really gain much at the end. I don't know. It was fine. And even the races last year were fine. Well, actually pretty good, but...
Speaker: Cox is so good off the layoff that I'm kind of like, well... Normally, I'd say a horn is going to improve a lot second off a layoff, but Cox... They do so well off the layoff that is the horse can prove most likely. He will.
Speaker: But if it's a short price, I would lean to the three personally. And then the five preside. Again, I'm not like totally against this horse, but I'd mean towards the three, assuming the prices were all similar. This horse who stumbled at the start to break his maiden last time, but he kept his momentum. So even though Prezide stumbled a little bit, didn't really lose much momentum. And then had a really good trip sitting off a duel. Did win really easily. against meetings, but
Speaker: I don't know. That horse is a good horse. Prezide, he's put up big speed figures. He figures here, but... Out of those three, I kind of want to lean to courting first. Then I'd say preside second, and then line of justice would be my third.
Speaker: pick out of those three. um There's one or two others I do want to talk about in this race, so we'll get into that and talk about betting the race potentially. But I'll throw it over to you, GQ, if you want to either add anything or comment on anything I said.
Speaker: Well, look I think you alluded to it earlier. it There seems to be... a lot of speed in this race and Chordian's the only one that has shown the affinity to lay off the pace and come running. So,
Speaker: with the first time he's ever being run with Lasix could be an an added plus as well. I just see that... um If.
Speaker: The entire field holds together. They're... It should be a a lively pace up front. The reason why I kind of liked and who knows what happened to the nine.
Speaker: coming off the layoff. First time. It's three -year -old's... Face. other than just three -year -olds. I mean... Look at... all the races that He ran in. uh,
Speaker: but Back from last year up through... um The Derby Trail starting up. back in last October. Ran third behind Napoleon Solo. Ran second to Incredibolt, who I believe was in the derby.
Speaker: Further ado, who was everybody's... Wise guy horse going into the Derby. Ran second to him in the street sense. Or I'm sorry, the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Speaker: strategic risk, silent tactic. ah Palladian, Chip Honcho, Golden Tempo, Emerging Market. It's just a who's who. And he wasn't embarrassed by it. by those horses along the way. so It's a mystery of what happened in that last race.
Speaker: First time on Lasix. comes back with Lasix, I'm willing to give him a second chance. Well, you're gonna get a good price. I mean the horse isn't necessarily for me, but at what should be close or should be double digit odds i would think uh you i can't knock you that the post is no uh bargain here either the one night
Speaker: Mile underneath. right It kind of turned right away, so that's not an easy post. He had a little bit of a wide trip last time, but might even get a wider trip with Chris Elliott this time. So I don't want to talk you off the horse, but I don't hate the horse, but I don't really love the horse. i just Other than the layoff last time, I mean, slightly wide, but that's not an excuse because...
Speaker: this trip might be wider. So if peace does develop maybe the horse can just go back and you know make one run late and do okay So I don't hate The nine universe, but I definitely don't love that horse as much as you do. Was there anything else you want to add before I talk about some others?
Speaker: ah Just your opinion. I assume it might be about the same reason the post for Golfie, who is back on Lasix after trying the Curlin and then the Peter Pan in May.
Speaker: I mean, Running with Lasix has two wins in a second, albeit in maiden claimers and optional. um $75 ,000 claimer.
Speaker: uh any hope for this one who Ryan. Far behind C -Strike and Chief Wild will be. Oh, there's definitely hope for the horse again. It's not a horse that I'm really interested in betting here um But I can...
Speaker: I can... understand why people would like golfie i think a there's other speed in the race so that makes it tough the post is not ideal as well like you mentioned And even though He comes in third in the curling I mean, he had a pretty easy lead in that race and coughed it up. Yeah, you want to argue a against better, but we talked about this. you know Chief Wallaby maybe was, I think we mentioned it last week when Matthew DeSantis was on. you know Chief Wallaby, A.
Speaker: David Argona mentioned how he might be chowing off a little bit just based on the works and stuff. uh matthew santis was saying someone i forgot who he mentioned Uh, who does the videos on Nairo with him? I can't remember offhand, but anyway, he mentioned out Shapiro. Yeah, that's who it was. She said like the horse, maybe the distance. I think that's what he said, right? It's a mile or more of a mile. So whatever you want. So, you know, uh, I know. came in third, some big names up there. but
Speaker: Golf is not for me. Like I said, i don't want I don't do this podcast to talk people off of horses, especially horses that are going to be... Prices, like you know if it's a favorite, I wouldn't... ah you know Maybe I'll talk you off or try to a little, but not a price horse. And Golfy will be a decent price here. So just not really for me on Golfy.
Speaker: um a couple other words just i want to mention before we uh move on or you want to add anything else the true poppy yo i don't really care for but the horse has a chance here The reason I don't love Papio is twofold. Number one, ran a huge figure. I don't want to say out of nowhere last time, but the figure improved a lot last time. You can argue, well, Linda Rice got the horse and all that, so maybe she improved the horse. Who knows?
Speaker: but that was also a starter allowance and this is a regular allowance so that was ah a weaker field and now you got to step up in class And even if he repeats that buyer. He still not i might not win this race. So I can see why you might like Papio. Save ground, can adjust up the speed. Probably gets a really good trip here. But for me, I'm not really into Papio unless we're talking like close to double -digit odds. and
Speaker: It's possible he's that high, but he'll probably be lower than that. uh the horse that i'm actually interested other than uh courting stars uh i'm sorry the three courting Corning, just Corning. I added some names. I tried it. Combine him when he meets with counting stars.
Speaker: He's a boy, right? Well, he's a Ridgeling. You know better than me. Can a Ridgeling have babies? um Yes, he can. Origilene just means... I know what it means, yeah. Yeah, so it doesn't affect his ability to...
Speaker: you just need Enjoy himself. no I don't want to say anything too crass, but all right. So one one is enough. You don't need two. That's what you're telling me. Okay. Well, if he if he is bred to counting stars one day, then they can call the horse courting stars because I mentioned on the podcast. But anyway, the horse I'm going to mention is a horse who our friend Tom will be excited if he's listening, the Seven Iron Dome.
Speaker: And I don't know what happened last time other than Iron Dome got a really wide trip. But I remember not being, um I wasn't betting much on August 1st. I remember, I can't remember what I was doing, but I just didn't really have time to bet. So I looked at some raises and I didn't love Iron Dome that day. And I wish I knew why offhand. And I don't remember why, maybe who he was facing, whatever it was. But um the horse had a very wide trip.
Speaker: Going to my own need last time. It. I just think that he's run some really good wins at Saratoga. Maybe he just... He's peaked, and he peaked last year, late summer into the fall, and that's it. But he put up a big figure, too, back at this level.
Speaker: He likes the Corsair. We talked about speed and he does some of his better running Up closely, but not necessarily on the lead
Speaker: So I'm hoping that he can sit off. And maybe it's a little bias here, too, because I remember that race on Belmont Stakes Day last year. It was the last race of the card. We were sitting there. It was a rainy day. and This is 2025. And if I remember correctly, the track played big time to speed that day. And Iron Dome had an awful start to that race and came. flying late i think it was like the 1a that day i didn't watch the replay but i'm pretty sure it was a part of an entry and oh it does say entry im i'm sorry i didn't look at that and we were like whoa that horse was a monster and then he ran really well after that so i'm willing to give him another shot here um so the seven iron dome the three corning are the main two i want to use here now
Speaker: Again, when we're talking about betting a race. When I bet. I'm looking at the favorites and do I'm betting more against horse. And this is something that I've learned over the years and gotten much better vertically betting. And I have to thank the people like ITP who's been on the show a couple of times and a couple other people I've learned from. but I used to bet horses. Now I tend to bet more against horses. And that's what I'm looking for.
Speaker: Who are the favorites and how can I beat them or can I beat them? And I don't know that I want to waste a lot of money trying to beat the four and the five here. So I'm not really sure. Again, I know I said this about other races, but I'm not sure I really want to bet this race. If I did, I would want to bet courting the three, iron drone the seven, assuming...
Speaker: Corning is not like a heavy favorite. He's like a co -favorite, basically. And Iron Dome, I'm guessing, is going to be like 8 -1, that range there. If that that's the case, I'm okay with those horses. and Like I said, though, it's tough because do I wanna... to bet against the four and the five, I have to decide that. And I don't think I do. And if I do think the four and five are okay, and they're the two other chalks, it's just not a race I want to bet. If I can beat at least one of them, like maybe if Lion of Justice goes off two to one or is going to be two to one, maybe I can bet against the horse.
Speaker: But. As much as I made a small case against it, it's not like I hate the four line of justice. So I'm looking more like multi -race bets here and trying to get through with the three and the seven in doubles, pick threes, pick five, things like that. And that's probably where I'll be. Is there anything else you want to mention about the race, Jake, here before we move on?
Speaker: Nope, we'll move on to the fourth leg of the late pick five at Saratoga on Saturday. which is Race 11. Seven furlong, grade one.
Speaker: been away and It's for two -year -old Phillies. And what we know about two -year -olds is... Things can change rapidly from race to race. um There's eight...
Speaker: Do to go post word. And my prediction it might be a safe prediction is that. The 8th. life -changing will be the Nine to five.
Speaker: favorite. Well, I have him as a to her as a two to one a five to two second choice, but I hope you're right. Yeah. So I'm looking at this race and I look at the one bandmaster and I'm like, all right, this horse doesn't appear to have any chance and going to be like 50 to one.
Speaker: I put 31 in the paper because at Inc. we were told that
Speaker: I don't know if this is set on the air or not. Maybe I shouldn't say it, but um usually they don't go above like 30 to one in these races. So I guess I can say that. In stakes races because people are paying. and I guess so. So yeah, anyway, I hope we didn't. violate I don't want to discourage that. Yeah, I don't think that was something we weren't supposed to say. Sorry if we weren't. You'll know when you're blocked tomorrow. Yeah, I know. Uh -oh, I'm in trouble. We can edit that out quickly if ah you find if you're know who I'm talking about. If you happen to be listening on the odd chance. No one listens. No, it's okay. Anyway, so I get to the two. and
Speaker: Usually, it's funny, our friend Ed, he always teases me. I don't know if tease is the right word, but he'll always text me if I'm not with him. He goes, these are your races because in the past... I... you know There are certain raises I'm not great at, like starter allowances. I've never really had a great feel for necessarily, but these two -year -old stakes raises, I've I feel like I've done really well in them because people bet speed figures and that's how they bet most races. And I feel like that's a terrible way to bet these races because as you said, things change so much just because one horse ran 20 points better.
Speaker: i These horse can change like crazy and a horse can come out and have a big effort and then it takes a lot out of them and they just... I don't know whether the words bounce or just don't repeat it. The numbers. are are not as important so i was very upset when i got to the two summer starlet and i saw the high buyer i'm like oh i'm gonna not like this or summer starlet because it got a big figure and it's gonna be a short price
Speaker: I watched the race. And the comment was amazing. That was my comment. I don't usually write that too much about horses. I was so impressed with this race that, I mean, this horse I think is going to be the favorite. Bye.
Speaker: And I don't like endorsing favorites, especially in a race like this, but i just I really like this horse a lot, Summer Starlet. That's gonna be my main horse here The question is how short a price do I want as long as he's not like she's not like odds -on choice like four to five something like that I'm fine with her
Speaker: I might single in the pick five. I might use some others and I'll talk about that. But. I'll see what the morning line is to get a better feel, but I'm assuming it's going to be 2 -1, 9 -5 -ish morning line. I up put the 8 as 5 -2 second choice. And I think the 6 and 7, haha, are going to be the...
Speaker: co kind of third and fourth choice uh maybe the seven being the the third choice and then the six but i could be wrong about that uh and i think the five will take some money too so i basically mentioned every horse but anyway uh so i really like start so what was so amazing about it First of all, speed held in that race.
Speaker: which ah Summer Star, the two closed, which was very impressive. The only question is, can she repeat it? and that's a big question with these young horses but I mean, 15 -1, so maybe not a lot was expected, but I'm i'm just... I'm hoping people see 15 -1 as an aberration. They don't... um
Speaker: Bet the horse. I almost said they don't vote for the horse. I don't know where that came from, but hope they don't bet the horse. And I'm all over the two here. GQ, before I talk about, I think two others I want to talk about, do you want to, maybe you'll mention them or you want to mention anything? No, um go ahead. i i i just looked down real quick and like you said People might look at... uh
Speaker: What the horse went off as, what odds it went off as is ah versus how impressive the horse ran, meaning it's like, well, gosh, if the connections didn't know the horse, you know, was going to be this good.
Speaker: um Maybe it was just an aberration and she can't repeat it. But no, um I think it's going to be a... As you said, or as we both said, these horses change so quickly.
Speaker: And... You know, these are the races where they're in here because they Won impressively. in their debut or their second start or a couple of them here are two for two. So.
Speaker: I think the the the betting will be real interesting to see how how the – how these fillies are bet. Yeah, I'm sure the workout reports will have some effect too. So we'll see. I'm hoping the two did not get a B +, and I'm hoping the eight got a B++ plus plus or whatever, an A -.
Speaker: Maybe that'll help my odds. But ah the two other hoarders I wanted to mention, and we should talk about the eight also. so I'll do that at the end maybe if you don't want to talk about it. No, i' but I'm done talking about this race. The seven horse, Angel of Kirk, I like, assuming the price is at least like $4192.
Speaker: There's a horse, obviously, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, riding great. A horse was in a basically a three -way duel first out. The towards the duel were 6 -1 and 7 -1. They faded toward the back. So I definitely like the 7, Angel of Kirk. I thought she ran it. An excellent race. So I'm a big fan of the 7 as well. And the other horse I want to use that I think will be double digit odds. I have around 10 to 1 in the morning line. Might even be higher.
Speaker: And that's the four. stress and relief. For LaRose, is that his name? The guy who took over for Amos, right? yeah in la rose thank you i thought this horse has had two rays around really well first of all I really liked our first race ah that.
Speaker: maiden special weight victory at Churchill Downs. I had a slight stumble at the start. Dueled a 2 -1 shot in the race who ended up fading to the back. Now that was not the strongest field. So that was the one knock against it. But she came back and won the Adirondack. I don't remember August 2nd. I feel like August 1st, August 2nd. I wasn't betting.
Speaker: those days for some reason maybe I was away somewhere I can't remember I didn't look it up but I just don't remember betting the Adirondack but if I did I'm sure I like this horse because I loved her first race so maybe maybe we even did it for a podcast you may have been in Pittsburgh touring the Making the pirates... game ground.
Speaker: It's very possible, trying out for the Pirates, yeah. uh they told me if i was a right -handed batter they would assign me but i hit lefty and they're pretty good they have a good lefty lineup they hit righties they can't hit lefties so they ah They didn't want me. But anyway.
Speaker: Uh... the four stress relief in the Adirondack. I just have a check on the race again, slight stumble at the start, which is a little concerning. but won the race easily. Now, Dan put up a huge speed figure, right? The bio was a 70 compared to like upper 80s or mid 80s for a few of these horses to get a price, but the horse did what she had to do to win.
Speaker: I mean, she didn't really get pressed or or have to try hard, not push during the race. So there's a lot more in the tank there. And I like stress relief at a price. So I'm on the two, the four and the seven here, but the two I really love.
Speaker: And. While I like the 8 also, I'm probably assuming she's either the favorite or co -favorite, life -changing the eight. I'm probably going to try and beat the horse. I have nothing against the horse. The horse had a fairly – she had to work for the lead and then had early, but then had a fairly easy lead. Speed held, but she won so easily. It's Pletcher. It's Pratt. The horse is going to take Rapoli. Probably cost a fortune if it's Rapoglia, over $1 million. dollars
Speaker: So maybe this horse is just a monster. And it's funny because we're talking about these things. And I can imagine like the connections of these horses. If they're ever listening, whether it's our podcast or other people, it could be like Andy Serling on Talking Horses they're listening to. And they know a lot more than we know. We're just guessing based on what we see. And I'm like, eh, you know, the hornet would add mail. Like this is a...
Speaker: freaking monster horse. They know it and all that. But, and they're like, this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. But, Again, I don't want all the favorites here. so Um, i'm willing to take a stab against the eight again big figure first out fairly easy lead Horse might be a monster, but I'm okay. I...
Speaker: I think I sat out pretty much every race in the sequence vertically, except for maybe race eight, a wind bet on the eight horse. So I'm okay betting this race. And assuming the the two is not like an overwhelming favorite, I'm going to. you know mostly key to two here and i'm just gonna use a four seven with him i'm not gonna spread too much so What I would do betting this race is I would box it a little bit. Let's just say the seven is about nine to two and the four is about 10 to one and the two is about two to one. Those are the odds that I have. So assuming they're similar, I would box the three of them to.
Speaker: four seven and exactives and triples and then i bet more i key the two so like an exact is two with four seven box and then two over the four seven and that's what i kind of do and hopefully i'm right about those horses and i mostly have the two on top and i bet actually with the two on top and the triples
Speaker: I don't really think I would add another horse here. I mean, I don't want to talk all day, but the other horses showed speed and ran well, but... A lot of them can win. I don't think the one really has a chance, but that's all I'm doing in this race. and In the pick five, depending on the other legs, I'm either singling the two or I'll go two, four, seven, assuming the eight is a really short price. I don't mind spreading a little bit.
Speaker: with the two, the four, and the seven, and the pick five. Especially I'm singling that eight horse on the turf and I'm not going deep in another leg. I think so uh with iron dome and cording i'm probably going too deep there so i'm okay spreading three deep here it's not gonna be an expensive ticket Okay.
Speaker: all right we're nine minutes short of an hour maybe we can bring it home under an hour Whoa. Leg five of Saturday at Saratoga's late pick five.
Speaker: is race 12. Mile on the 16th on the turf, optional clamber for $45 ,000. There are... 12 signed up to go. The 12 will only go if it's off the turf, which we will assume will not be.
Speaker: Eric. Do you believe that the three is the... post time slash morning line favor. Ooh. It's gonna be close. It might be the 7.
Speaker: Um... I would pick the seven only because... Um... The three... ah is not a non -winner of two or three, I mean, is only beating maidens.
Speaker: so and Doesn't have to be in for the tag. and and She's putting him up for sale when. Back in May of last year,
Speaker: When she trained this horse that she being Michelle Nevin. Didn't put it put him up for the tag. Maybe... Head. liked him better back then then or liked her better back then. Now that she's a five -year -old mayor, she's willing to part.
Speaker: part with her you know doesn't she have residual value as a As a mayor? Well, that is you you know more about that than me. That's not my specialty here. about That much more, which is holding my two fingers, to tips of my fingers together, that there's no space in between. Yeah, this is not a race I really love because you have these two favorites who are going to be or who are dropping They're running against much better.
Speaker: And i'm not really sure what I want to do here. There is a horse I kind of like so i'm going to use that horse But the three Uri... um I think I'd prefer the 3 over the 7 slightly.
Speaker: I just, I mean, I'm worried that she's had, what? Three races in the last two years. That's not really... uh being too much to her soundness but ah Yeah, she raced, what, in September?
Speaker: of 2024 and since then has only had three races. So it's been two years. So this will be the fourth race in two years, assuming she's not scratched. i Didn't love per se the last race. I thought the horse had a very good trip saving ground However,
Speaker: A couple things in Ori's favor. Number one... That was a layoff a bit. This is a shorter layoff. There's like two months. That was three months if that matters, right? Wait, March, April, May, June, July, four months that was. So this is. Half the layoff.
Speaker: Number two, The biggest thing is the fact that that was against much better. I mean, this horse was 12 -1 in that field. If this horse ran last race in this field, it would also be like 2 -1. So the fact that she was 12 -1 in the field against these should be 2 -1.
Speaker: it's a big difference. So on the drop, speed, and I really don't think there's a ton of speed. if you want to you know You can glance if you haven't done it already and tell me if I'm wrong, but there's really not a ton of speed in here. so Pratt is either going to go to the lead or you know save ground right behind. He should get a really good trip. so I think Ori on the drop is going to be difficult here. Where the 7... Definitely can win. That's Griselda coming out of grade two races last year, grade three races.
Speaker: My problem with Griselda... is the fact that she ran so poorly last time. Now, that was against Benner. Uh, as you mentioned, it was a second level allowance, which is even tougher field than where he ran against.
Speaker: So that's a big drop here. Then I was like, you know what? It was a layoff. It was against much better. And speed dominated that race. It was like a merry -go -round. but she didn't run a lick. So I'm like, all right, well, it was six furlongs. She's been running a mile. But then I looked at the European races and the horse ran pretty well, very well going six furlongs. Now,
Speaker: You know, in six furlongs in Europe might be a little, this is going to sound stupid and people will quote me, but six furlongs in Europe is different than six furlongs in the U .S. I know that's stupid because it's the same distance. Although they have the about sign, so maybe it's not the exact distance. But my point is that could be like uphill, downhill, all that. So it's a little different. It could be straightaways. I didn't watch the replays of those races. I'm not familiar with the racetrack that well there. so Anyway, my point is that this voice was so bad and then they drop her. So again, it's Chad Brown.
Speaker: Maybe he realized she's just not going to win second -level allowance races, but this field is easy for her. so yeah I can definitely see her winning, but if I had to pick one of the three or seven, I would probably pick the three. But the horse that I i like to take a stab on is another one that, you know,
Speaker: hasn't had the most races recently. In fact, We talked about Ori having three races in two years. Well, I'm going to select a horse which I would never normally pick. But she's had one race in two years. and That's the five sweet duchess. And I know I'm kind of silly to pick this horse.
Speaker: But... But. The last time this horse was on the turf, I loved that race. I have plus, plus, plus, plus, whatever. She chased an even money shot who came in fifth, so the pace kind of fell apart a little bit in it, and she did the, quote, dirty work. They were well ahead of the field, so it wasn't just that she was, like, chasing slash dueling the favorite, the even money favorite. They were way ahead, which means they were really going at it. She also checked the first turn that race, which she doesn't say. And I'm talking about the October.
Speaker: I think that says fourth turf race. 2024, I know. so This is a horse who... If she's ready. I think she's gonna run a monster race.
Speaker: I don't know if she's Going to be ready. But... I'm hoping that she is. Jorge Abreu, the trainer, won the allowance race this meet. with a one -year layoff. So he's done it before this meet. So I'm going to take a swing with Sweet Duchess, unless she's a really short price. But I'm assuming she's going to be about 8 -1 here. You know, maybe 6 -1 on the short side, maybe 12 -1 on the high side, but probably about 8 -1. Anywhere 6 -1 or higher, I'm going to be on this horse and take a stab. So I'm on the 5.
Speaker: I guess if I'm betting pick fives, or I probably will bet pick fives, but... I hate doing this, but I'm probably going to be mostly on the 3 .5. Because I'm so narrow, if I decide I want to beat the 7, the 7 seems like it's going to be a short price. Maybe I'll throw in a few others. Maybe I'll throw in the 6 for Trill. The 4 Saratoga Snow is also dropping. And the 9. So I might throw in like the 4, 6, 9 Racing Colors. Who probably doesn't have much of a shot. It's going to be a big price. so But this is a horse who has improved on the dirt.
Speaker: since she's been on the turf. So maybe she's in good form on the turf, but she is 0 for 8 on the turf with no in the money. So not really a big fan, but just because it's a short ticket. and The horse is going to be a a price I might add that horse in. So...
Speaker: Again when I'm betting a race vertically, I'm looking do I want to beat the favorite if not do I want to beat the second favorite? If I want to be both of them, I'm feeling good about it. so I'm okay trying to take a stab against Chad Brown. I know the 7 can definitely win this race, and maybe it does win easily, but I'm okay taking a stab against it her, and I'll mostly be using the 3 -5, but I'll be using the other horse as well. so Depending on the odds, like let's say the seven is nine to five favorite.
Speaker: I've said this before, but if I'm betting against an even money shot or close to it, I don't mind spreading a little on a ticket. So I could see boxing a bunch of these horses, like the four, ah the the five, the six.
Speaker: uh the nine and maybe even throwing the three is a short price with some of them uh and trying to just hit something with those. And then I'll key in on the five, assuming the word is like six or eight to one, at least. And I do five with those horses. I probably do extra five, three, just because I think the three is...
Speaker: the most likely winner here. And that's kind of how I would approach the race vertically, if that makes any sense. And um from pick five standpoint, I already mentioned, you know, either the two deep three, five, or maybe add in some prices.
Speaker: depending on the other legs of the ticket here. Just kind of recapping the the pick five a little bit if we're playing the pick five. ah Race eight, I'd probably go somewhat deep. And I'd probably knock out the shortest prices just because getting like Cox or Pletcher or Brown and like, you know, eight to five in the first leg when I have a lot of chalk is not going to help.
Speaker: Second leg, I'll probably single race nine, the eight horse.
Speaker: unless the horse looks like it's going to be 3 -5 or something, or 4 -5 in the problem rules, then I might switch to the 3 if she's a much better price or he's a much better price. Race 4, I'm going to go 3 -7 for the most part there. If I add another horse... Race 10, leg 3. Leg 3. I'm sorry. Is that not what I said? My bad. um You said race 4. Oh, thank you. i I don't know what I said that for. You know what? I was looking at the number 4. I have no idea why I said that. ah But yeah, in race 10, leg 3, thank you. I'd go 3, 7, courting in Iron Dome.
Speaker: If. I want... I would just leave out the four line of justice and the five preside, even though I know they can win and maybe add a few more, but. that we kind of mentioned a little bit. Maybe like throwing a puppy yo I think he's going to be higher than like six to one. I could see throwing him in, but I don't really love him. uh maybe your horse the universe to nine maybe we didn't talk about commerce c11 tough post but you know so maybe i throw him more depending on uh what i think the odds will be there but for the most part i'm gonna be three seven there Race 11.
Speaker: Uh, we mentioned like four, I love the two summer starlet might s single. If I can add the four, seven, I might do that stress relief and angel Kirkland, you know, race five, three and five worry. And, um, we just thought just would be the main ones. The one thing I don't like about the ticket is, and we, I'm sorry, we're going to go over now an hour, but I'll try and be really quick. Cause that thing is important more so than analyzing a specific course.
Speaker: I don't. Like we joke, right? And you'll text me pictures when people put up tickets and it's like three by three by three by two by three. And besides structure being really bad because three by three by three, the math just doesn't add up and it's going to be an expensive ticket.
Speaker: You have to be, like I say, almost perfect every race. So let's say the average thrill size is like eight, which it is here at least, maybe even nine in this sequence. If you're using three hoarders a race, you have to be like perfect. Like if something out of the ordinary happens, you're like dead basically. So I don't like having a ticket where I'm really short like that in each race. I'd rather have instead of three by three by three, which three times three times three is 27. I'd rather have a race where I single.
Speaker: Then another race, I might have five or six words. Another race, like four or five words. The math basically is the same. You can have one. By six. by four
Speaker: And it's actually cheaper than three by three by three. So generally speaking, I'd much rather to have that. And I'm not in this ticket because other than the first leg where I'm spreading a little, and where everyone's spreading, and I do have a single probably in the second leg with the eight, I'm kind of like two or three deep in the other legs. And, you know, if something unexpected happens. So that's why I was mentioning maybe in the races where I'm going to try and not use the favorites, like preside in line of justice race 10, or in the last race, so I'm not going to use a Chad Brown, maybe spread a little bit, even if I don't love the horses.
Speaker: uh Like I mentioned, Papio, just because, Hey, if I'm not perfect, it's not costing much. I'm adding some prices. And I don't have to be perfect every sequence. You don't want to just throw away money. If you can have a small ticket, that's great. But it's really not going to cost that much to do that. So I'll likely do that. I just got to decide which legs. And it's really hard to do that, ah you know, four or five days out without knowing, especially in the morning line to get a good idea.
Speaker: what the price will be at. you know We kind of have an idea and we're generally in the right ballpark with our you know morning line projections and stuff like that. So we kind of have an idea, but I'd like to see it. um In New York, at least. So anyway. I'm sorry I went so long. I thought it was going to be a quick show, and then I... This week it was mostly me.
Speaker: And then the first six minutes where you went on a... speech about I don't even know what it was mostly my fault that we went long but I did a lot of note taking and stuff so I want to share it with the people and also want to go over the um the betting structure there so sorry if it's too long and i'm turning people off But I appreciate you guys and gals sticking around this long. GQ, I'll throw to you for any ah final thoughts before I wrap it up.
Speaker: Nope. Everyone have a happy. and safe ah Labor Day weekend. Enjoy all the... the plethora of horse racing that's going on across the country.
Speaker: And please throw a deuce on some horse that I like at Timonium or a horse that you may like. Keep Timonium alive and well for the future.
Speaker: I will definitely be doing that for you GQ and hopefully other people do as well. Enjoy closing weekend at Saratoga. It's been a long, long summer. But it's coming to an end, and soon we will be at beautiful...
Speaker: Melmont Park. So good luck this weekend if you're playing the races. We will talk to you next week. Ta ta!
