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Saratoga Late Pick 5 Races fir Saturday, July 18th
84 Plays1 day ago
GQ and Eric analyze the late pick 5 races (8-12) at Saratoga for Saturday, July 18th.
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Transcript
Eric Rubin's Cross-Country Pick Five Success
00:00:00
Speaker
Hello, and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill, and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
00:00:14
Speaker
Hello, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ, how the you?
00:00:25
Speaker
Not as well as you, Eric. Uh, Eric, uh... I'm not going to say had the good fortune because it takes skill to hit a pick five. But during our final hours at Monmouth Park, our Monmouth Park weekend with our friend Big T and other friends, J.R. and Mick, Eric hit the cross country pick five on Saturday.
00:00:57
Speaker
Way to go. And what did luckily enough, what, two of the five races were Saratoga, so we already had that down. The other three were Indiana because they were having their Indiana Derby.
00:01:10
Speaker
And i think, what, you handicapped that in about two minutes? and
Challenges Facing the Horse Racing Industry
00:01:16
Speaker
put it where we We found out about it about ten minutes beforehand, and you're like, oh, let me put this in. so Yeah, I think I got – You want to expand on that?
00:01:27
Speaker
Yeah, I got knocked out by a Horacio De Paz firster, I think. And i I meant to use not meant to use him, but I want to use him and I cut him and I hate cutting prices. i work Time out. Time out. time out I'm not talking about today. I'm talking about the Cross Country Pick 5. That is. Yeah. Remember Harashi? How did you get knocked out by Harashi?
00:01:46
Speaker
No, I got knocked out of the Saratoga Pick 5 because of that. And I got pissed off because I wanted to use them and I didn't. I was a moron. So that's when I saw that the Cross Country was starting soon. So I did a speed handicapping. It wasn't the greatest ticket.
00:02:00
Speaker
But... if you remember old crazy bone who I liked a lot was in there. So I knew I can single him. Saratoga's last race, which we went over last week. I didn't like the two favorites that much. So I knew I was going to try and beat them.
00:02:14
Speaker
So I figured let me throw it in and it worked out. Okay. But been a little bit of a role recently. So hopefully we can keep it going this week. But, but, but the key to that was the first leg of that cross country pick five where our favorite,
00:02:30
Speaker
jockey junior Alvarado is on a 14-1 shot and that's what made it pay so well. so shall we say like high four figures? Is that fair to say? yeah I mean, it's not anything hiding, but yeah, it was a good, ah it was a good one. I'm pissed off. You thought I was talking about today. Today we're yeah Thursday.
00:02:49
Speaker
I was a moron today and I got too cute and I cut the big chalk out of the last leg of the early pick five or six on Thursday, even though I had a feeling in he had a you know best shot at winning and I use a two Clements and, uh,
00:03:04
Speaker
I ended up throwing them out, paid eight grand. I was alive to it, paid eight grand. So I had to pick four a couple of times, which was nice. I'm not complaining that much, but I should have eight grand pick five today. So I'm kind of upset with myself.
00:03:15
Speaker
Again, I was trying to be too perfect and I need a lot of chalk in there and I tried to be one too many, but anyway, I digress.
Saratoga Late Pick Five Weekend Strategy
00:03:25
Speaker
Before we go into, you know, the typical late pick five at Saratoga, we like so doing Saratoga because the,
00:03:33
Speaker
Majority of the horse fighters like betting Saratoga. And so we want to we appease our the to the masses, let's say. so um but we this...
00:03:45
Speaker
little segment at the beginning. We like to either go over quickly. Um, some of the things that happened either last week, uh, with podcasts just last week over the past week in horse racing. So, um, the good was Eric's, uh, good handicap, you know, the cross country pick five last Saturday. The bad was the fact that I thought in the Boeing green,
00:04:12
Speaker
Fort George who lost by a whisker thanks to Flavian Pratt on old crazy bones, uh, stopping to ride him in the last 10 yards, thinking he had to want race one. I thought Fort George would go off three to five. He did not. actually went off at five to two, which was a great price. and I think at the last minute, you even put a wind bed on him because of the value just to you know protect it. And the
Deep Dive: Saratoga Race Analysis
00:04:40
Speaker
foggy would be what happened at Saratoga on Sunday
00:04:45
Speaker
in the fourth race where the jockeys decided that the one mile on the turf for two year olds was too much of a dangerous situation with the the babies and they wanted that the distance longer before they go into the first run. And it was like this big debacle, the pick six had to be canceled or whatever.
00:05:09
Speaker
And just once again, a on the face of horse racing. The whole problem is Horse racing, there's so many groups. It's, you know horse racing. If you look at horse racing as a corporation and all the different groups, management, the jockeys, the trainers, the track owners, whatever, um of all the departments, it's like they don't talk to one another. and what has to happen is all these groups need to get together on top of all these track owners need to get together or what's going to continue to happen, which unfortunately I'll be, you know, the, you know, um, grim reaper for horse racing is things are going to happen just as we found out that Hawthorne was sold to a non horse racing entity. And in my opinion, I think this is going to continue,
00:06:07
Speaker
not because people are not interested in horse racing. The horse population has been dwindling forever and you just can't have all these ri race tracks racing year round.
00:06:21
Speaker
the product gets watered down and I just see that there's going to be more and more. Plus with FanDuel TV, no longer there to promote it in the right way.
00:06:34
Speaker
um the the smaller tracks are going to suffer. I forget what track it is that runs at night, but like their handle was like 200,000 or something like that. It was, it it was, it was bad because they didn't have the support of a Fandul TV, you know, trying to pump it up. So um that's, that's a whole different topic that didn't mean to go off on a tangent there to expand, extend this podcast longer than we really want it. But
00:07:05
Speaker
Eric, do you have anything to add on any of those topics? Well, like you said, i mean, we can spend a lot of time talking about this, but ultimately horse racing is a losing business for the tracks at this point.
00:07:20
Speaker
It costs them more to put on the product than they make. They rely on government subsidies, which are starting to dwindle and will continue to. How long can politicians justify giving money to racetracks?
00:07:32
Speaker
You know, right now politicians are getting killed for giving money to different countries and, you know, aid to Israel and all is causing people to lose elections. You know, once that's all done and people move on, at some point it's going to like, how can you give money to horse racing when we need education and this and that? So at some point, the subsidies are going to go bye-bye.
00:07:49
Speaker
And how many tracks are going to able to survive? you know, a few. Naira probably will with Naira Bets because they get a big chunk of their ah proceeds. you know Obviously, in Kentucky, the subsidies will probably last forever, but for a long long time because that's such a big industry. But other than that, i mean where else is horse racing going to survive? not Not too many places. I'm just hoping it's way down the road and not within a few years. But you know every year, there's going one or two tracks closing, I'm sure, if not more. So it's kind of a sad thing to to think about. But that's kind of where we're at.
00:08:21
Speaker
True. Well said. right, so without further ado, let's get down to business. ah On Saturday, Saratoga's late pick five starts in race eight.
00:08:34
Speaker
Race eight is the grade three Coronation Cup for three-year-old fillies. Won five-and-a-half furlongs. Half a dozen horses signed up to run on the turf.
00:08:47
Speaker
Two MTOs were entered in hopes that it would rain and come off. Now, as we record this, the chance of rain in the Saratoga area on Saturday is great, but not until late afternoon. So we're hoping that the forecast continues to push the rain chances back to early evening instead of late afternoon so that the three of the five races in this sequence will indeed stay on the turf.
00:09:20
Speaker
So ah we may mention and something, but in in the interest of time, we're not going to go into, oh, well, if it comes off the turf, this is who I like. on Yeah, at least I'm not going to go there. So um six horse field, morning line favorite is three to five.
00:09:37
Speaker
Cy Fair, which being the chalk eating weasel that I am, i think she's a free square here. Now there's others who make a living um sharing their opinions with this.
00:09:55
Speaker
Don't agree with me. So, Eric, um how do you see this race? Well, full disclosure, I'm probably not going to bet this pick five. Maybe I'll throw a small ticket together.
00:10:07
Speaker
I don't have a ton of opinions. there's one or two races I like. But in race eight, the ch Coronation Cup, Cypher obviously is the horse to beat. I guess race dynamics come into play. I think there's three horses that have a shot to win this, and that's it, really. I think the two Cypher, obviously. I think the three Sapphire Beach, five to two second choice, who, not shocking, has a chance. And then the one Price Horse that main Quiet Street, the one horse, has a an outside chance to win this race.
00:10:36
Speaker
um I think race dynamics play a big role in this. You know, the speed of the race, I guess, is the three. I don't really know. might even be Cypher, who's gone to the lead in the past. So I'm just curious how they play at the jockeys.
00:10:50
Speaker
You know, what do you think, JQ? The two Cypher or the three Sapphire Beachcoats to lead or neither? Yeah, um it it could be either one. And like you said, it's going to be a jockey's race.
00:11:02
Speaker
um But let me – I'll – Mentioned, since we don't want to spend too much time on a six-horse field, which has a three to five more line favorite. The reason why I'm convinced that Cypher is the horse here, because says Sapphire Beach um ah goes back into a race where she cannot um be on Lasix.
00:11:31
Speaker
You look at her career. She has three wins out of seven. Well, four of her losses were all when she didn't have the aid with Lasix. And you can say, yeah, okay, GQ, she lost by a net with Whip-dee-doo two back when she wasn't on Lasix. But here's my concern with that.
00:11:51
Speaker
i' I'm not a DRF guy. i know i'll be struck and go to hell for saying that. But I would assume the short comment And DRF also indicates Sapphire Beach bled two races back in that limestone. Am I correct, Eric?
00:12:12
Speaker
Correct. Okay. So what do they do with a horse who bleeds? They administer Lasix. So with Lasix, she looked like a world beater as she did in previous races when running with Lasix.
00:12:30
Speaker
This is why I believe it's a concern with Sapphire Beach in this spot running without Lasix. Is she going to bleed again?
00:12:40
Speaker
She could still run or win, you know, okay. But that's my question mark. Now, to even be devil's advocate on Cypher,
00:12:56
Speaker
There might be a ah red flag, but yellow flag with the fact that every time that in between races, she's always on a ah steady work tab of, you know, six to seven races.
00:13:09
Speaker
Well, that wasn't the case since her last race in April, where she took off a month from training between May 30th and June 24th. I might be making.
00:13:20
Speaker
making something out of nothing. But a horse that typically doesn't miss time, know, she missed time ah month ago. um So that that's where I stand here. The lesser of the two evils as far as red flags, Cypher. I'll just mention that the horse that I think could could run ah underneath is the five horse, 12 to one morning line,
00:13:50
Speaker
Hark the Angels Sing. um Has run behind a few good horses, beat beat a decent horse last time out. And i think compared to the other horses in this race, the other failures in this race, this one's getting better as a three-year-old, whereas i think like horses like the Six, Snowface Princess, and... um i the The one that you like, Eric, Quiet Street, I think they've kind of regressed from their two-year-old season. So I just spent probably, what, seven minutes on a dissertation on a six-horse field.
00:14:30
Speaker
Yeah, thanks for saying we don't want spend much time in the race. thank Now if I spend like three minutes, we're way too long. i Just quickly rebutting you. First of all, Sapphire Beach, yes, hasn't had her best races off. I'm sorry, it's 0 for 3 off Lasix, but got her highest buyer in that race that she supposedly bled in. So I thought she had a perfect trip that day in the limestone, so I wasn't that impressed. But still, another one was her first start, which was on the dirt. She's not a dirt horse. And the other one was going a mile. She's not miler. So I don't buy that argument, but I understand what you're saying. So I wouldn't worry about that if I were betting Sapphire Beach or or not.
00:15:07
Speaker
Yeah, if Cy Fair repeats her race in the Manziel, if that's how you pronounce it, last time at Churchill, she'll probably win this. She ran pretty well that day. Yeah. Her limestone wasn't great, honestly. She had not the hardest lead, fairly easy lead, and speed held a little bit. And she didn't run great, but then she came back and had that really good race in the Mems Ale. So if she repeats that, she wins. She's been off, and that might be a concern. I'm not that worried about that. Sapphire Beach, I thought, had the great trip in the limestone I mentioned, and came back to kind of easily crush an allowance field.
00:15:38
Speaker
And I said, the one horse is the one, Quai Street, and interests me a little bit here. because this is a horse who I think is just ah a good sprinter. She's had two sprints, not counting the Kentucky Downs race, which she won. So you want to say that's a sprint. She's had three sprints.
00:15:53
Speaker
She's two for three in those sprints. Her first race ever made in special eight. She got squeezed horribly at the start and still came on to win. And it's not like the race totally fell apart. thought she ran great to break her maiden, goes to Kentucky Downs, wins that stakes race at Kentucky Downs. Then they stretch her out to a mile and 16th in the Miss Guerrillo. She honestly didn't run badly at all, but I think that's a little far for her. Comes back off a layoff in that limestone where she met the two Saifera and the three Sapphire Beach, and she had just an almost impossible trip. Slow start. It was on her own, so maybe that's an issue for her, although she's been okay out of the gate. Not great. She's not going break sharp. and She was blocked the entire stretch of that race. She had no chance. I thought she ran really much better than looked. Then they went long again, and
00:16:37
Speaker
She didn't run great going long. So I think going back to a shorter race, she can do well here. And I'm hoping the two and the three, Cypher and Sapphire Beach, decide they can't let the other one go. it gets cooked up a little bit.
00:16:49
Speaker
And that allows the one quiet street to close and win. Do I expect that? Probably not. But for eight to one, I'm willing to take a chance. So if I bet this race, I would bet the one. And if I was betting...
00:17:02
Speaker
More than just a win bet, I guess I'd have to decide, do I like the two or the three more and bet the one with that horse? i mean, I guess if they cook it up, I can go 1-5 with your horse or 1-6, but I just don't think that's very likely. So
Spotlight on Saratoga Race Nine: Gadget Play
00:17:16
Speaker
for me, if I bet it, it will probably just be a win bet here on the one if she's about 8-1 or higher, and I'll take my chances. It won't be a huge bet for me. It'll be more of a kind action bet just so I can have some action on the horse, I think, is...
00:17:28
Speaker
clearly the third best sprinter in the race at worst, and I'm going to get eight one. So that's it. Okay. And to piggyback on quiet street and you mentioned about the limestone, she just had nothing going for, assume at least in the short comment in brisnet where it said pop gate that happened prior to the race.
00:17:51
Speaker
So who knows, you know, she may have gotten, um, little worked up prior to that race and really didn't show her true self. So, um, you might even be able to put a line through that one. So,
00:18:03
Speaker
We'll move on to race nine, second leg in the late pick five, Saratoga on Saturday, July 18th. We have a 10-horse field, seven furlong, maidens, and the morning line favorite is a lukewarm number nine horse gadget play, which I did my research and handicapping prior to the morning lines, and I thought this one might be a you know four four to one, maybe five to one. But lo and behold, I'm i'm on the chalk here.
00:18:38
Speaker
The nine gadget play. How about you, Eric? this This is a tough race for me. We talked about it before we went on the air briefly.
00:18:50
Speaker
i just, this is one reason why I don't know if I'm going pick five. I don't have much of an opinion here. I know it seems great because it's a big field, but I don't love anyone. i don't hate anyone that I want to play against. I think a lot of them are relatively even.
00:19:05
Speaker
yeah, I think an important lesson is sometimes you got to sit out races. And I know we're doing a show and supposed to have an opinion and I'll offer a couple of opinions. But just to be honest, I don't see myself bending this race because I do not have an opinion. I'll go through a couple of horses and and mention what I like about them. I guess by not having an opinion, I mean, I have an opinion on the horses. I just feel like they're all somewhat similar in my opinion.
00:19:29
Speaker
um I do like the one a little bit criteria. I think the horse is improving here. Two back. I thought had a fairly easy lead. i thought speed held pretty well. I didn't really like the race for criteria to back that April 12th race at Keeneland, but I thought ran better last time got bumped at the start. So it was further back then, then he wanted to, and ran pretty well to close a little bit into that ah pace there. So I think the one is an improving horse.
00:19:57
Speaker
And honestly, He might be the horse that I like the most, but it's so tight. ah Sidearm, the two I don't really think has a a great stance. If you like him, don't let me talk y off him. Will you jump in NGQ or no?
00:20:10
Speaker
Yeah. No, I just wanted to mention the one criteria is is the horse that I like second best, I guess you could say. i mean, if you look back in his debut last last August, look who he lost to, Ted Noffy, who was like the early favorite for the Derby.
00:20:28
Speaker
um Yeah, this horse definitely has has some talent. um Actually bred to to like the turf as well and being a Claravich horse that he he might find his way there, but I just want to throw that in.
00:20:43
Speaker
Yeah, it's odd. have a Bernardini mare. They haven't tried either the chart for long. I know Yao Pan was a sprinter, the the dad, but yeah, I don't know. I guess that's Ted Nafi race, right? You got four next time and he lost.
00:20:55
Speaker
So the people who were thinking like you are 0 for 3, looking at Ted Nafi. But I think now enough time has passed to be like, ah, this horse had its chances. So you might actually get a price like 5 to 1. It's not bad. Again, the three I think actually is the best horse here.
00:21:10
Speaker
stimulate My only problem with the three stimulate is the layoff. It helped you get a better price, but I do think the three ran the best race out of all these considering he was a two-year-old the time. So I don't have the work reports yet. They haven't come out.
00:21:23
Speaker
And after those Horacio De Paz horses won last week with shitty workout reports, don't know I want to look at the workout reports, to be honest. But if the workout reports are um you know somewhat positive on stimulate, maybe I would lean on him a little, but that's a short price to take on a layoff force. us But I really do like stimulate, so that would be my opinion in this race.
00:21:43
Speaker
ah I think Dark Assault is fine. He had a wide trip, and you know it was too far last time, so i would toss his last race, and before that, he's as good as anyone else. I don't love the four Dark Assault, and he's fine.
00:21:55
Speaker
More than Merrier, I thought, would run a little better last time. He was a favorite. He did take an awkward step on the turn, but he was outfinished, and I thought he had a chance to win that. So I don't know if I have more than Merrier. He's okay.
00:22:07
Speaker
Staring words. A six. Hasn't run a while. Again, okay. You know, first race has some trouble. Second race, you know, got bounced around something to start, but then had a perfect trip. Was moving really well late, so I guess I kind of like the six off the layoff a little bit.
00:22:23
Speaker
I don't really like Ovechkin, the seven, eight, Chad Furster. The horse or the hockey player? Well, i dislike the horse here. I um absolutely hate the hockey player. I try not to hate a horse, though. it's not the horse's fault he was named horribly. ah The eight horse, Chad Brown Furster.
00:22:43
Speaker
You know, probably not Chad Stingy. He's two for 20, first-time stars at the dirt, going, I think, six and a half, seven furlongs at the spa. Go ahead, GQ, jump in. Yeah, i did a little research on the dam Harmonize. I mean, she was ah she was a turf runner, and the few horses that she's thrown have been successful on the turf.
00:23:05
Speaker
Actually, um she's the the the dam to a two-year-old flight line horse that's yet to race drum line. But this one should be on the turf, you would think.
00:23:20
Speaker
well maybe They paid, what, $1.1 million for the horse? Yep, something like that. Chester Broman, he's a New York guy. he's the the green i mean, he's older now, but he always wears a green jacket. I actually have a slight connection to him, I guess, even though he doesn't know who I am. I never met him.
00:23:37
Speaker
But his daughter used to ride horses a long time ago, and they had a horse who they paid a lot of money for. And I don't want to get into personal issues and stuff, stuff I don't want to say, but basically they needed someone to take care of the horse.
00:23:52
Speaker
And they sent it to a barn where my ex-wife or wife at the time rode, and he was in our barn with our horse. And my wife rode that horse and she was like, oh my God, what a horse. Because my wife's on like some couple thousand dollar rescue horse here who had all kinds of problems that she had a fix. And this horse was like pre-made, ready to go. She's like, oh, if rode this horse, I'd win every contest. I mean,
00:24:14
Speaker
But anyway, but he owns a lot of New York Reds especially and has a lot of success in New York racing. But anyway, it's a little off topic. The nine gadget play, just continuing here, got bumped at the start. no I thought he had a pretty good pace to close into in his first start gadget play.
00:24:28
Speaker
However, speed, it's not like the race collapsed despite the pace. So second out should improve the nine. Has as good a chance as anyone, but do I want seven to two in this race? And then the 10 Noble Edition,
00:24:40
Speaker
I mean, he really didn't gain much. He made up a lot of ground. So it looked like he was on the rail in his first race, no position. It looked like he was going to close like a monster, and he was. And then once he got like inside the eighth pole and pole there, like he just didn't gain anymore. So I don't know. I think it looks like he did more running than he actually did. Brad Cox, second out, I'm sure he'll do well.
00:25:01
Speaker
So again, if I had to guess, one – I would use, you know I think as a chance, the three, the six, I mean the nine. But again, I'm just throwing out numbers. that They're all similar to me. So it's a race I'm going to sit out. I don't have a strong opinion. But at least I can analyze. So if some of you are out there and you just want to analyze some trips and things like that, hopefully that helped.
00:25:23
Speaker
Sorry, I'm not giving a
Saratoga Race Ten: Favorites and Strategies
00:25:24
Speaker
better opinion. GQ, go ahead. No, the the only thing i want to add is since they're – quote you know The 9 Gadget Play and the 10 Noble Edition, their debut races, they both ran similar. you know they They appear to make up nice ground, and they're goingnna they're going seven furlongs and whatever.
00:25:46
Speaker
But when you look at those two, which one... would you think is the more impressive that closed? And I'm going to answer my own question by saying that's why it came up on the nine gadget play, because you look at the um opening fractions, of the race that Noble edition ran versus gadget play.
00:26:12
Speaker
And it's like a full second faster. So obviously, Eric, I'm i'm assuming you watch the replay of both of those races. The, I would say the speed backed up more in the Noble Edition race than it did in the Gadget Play race. Yes or no? No, really. When I handicap a race and I'm watching, you know I'm watching two main things. First of all, I'm watching the actual horse that I'm focusing on and the trip that that horse gets. But I'm also focusing, and I might have to watch it twice or even three times, so maybe fast forward once or twice to speed it up. I'm checking out the race flow, if you want to call it that.
00:26:49
Speaker
How the race set up did it set? You know, if i I'm thinking if I bet this horse and he's in six, am I happy right now because there's a ah good setup or am I like, ah, there's no pace. He's not going win things like that. And in both cases, while the pace was fast, I didn't think the races collapsed at all.
00:27:05
Speaker
um And I don't think it gave a huge edge to closers particularly or speed. both So what I do is I either write, i don't know it's great, but I either write C for closer benefited race If I put it C with like an apostrophe, that's like this was like a race that totally fell apart.
00:27:21
Speaker
I might put a C with a question mark, like and lean toward closers. So you want to be further back a little bit, but it wasn't like you couldn't win on the front. And then the opposite too. If it was a speed race, I'll put an S or for speed race.
00:27:33
Speaker
S with an apostrophe means like it really favored whores up front. If I put MGR, merry-go-round, that means like you couldn't make up ground. So anyone who made up ground, I can manage. But then I also do E. I put E for like even, which is the majority of the races where, yeah, you could have won on the lead. You could have won off the pace a little bit. So um for both of those, I put an E, meaning it was even. That's my E. I don't think, despite the pace or the times, i don't think it really favored one or the other. I could be wrong. But I don't think it really favors of the others. The only thing is the 9 got bumped back at the start.
00:28:03
Speaker
So I think he could have showed a little more speed there. And I would prefer the 9 over the 10 if they were at somewhat similar price. So I'm definitely – and I think Al Stahl is pretty good second out. i don't know about first out.
00:28:15
Speaker
You where Cox, while he's a very good second out, he's also pretty good first out. So, you know, I can see the 9 improving more too. And I think the 9 ran a little better personally. But that's my opinion. Got you. right. Sounds good. Move on to the third leg, Saratoga, late pick five Saturday, race 10 is one mile, of New York for New York bred, state bred, optional claim or 45,000 non-winners to other than we have an eight horse field. So on the dirt going mild, your favorite distance at Saratoga being sarcastic.
00:28:51
Speaker
so And, um, Morning line favorite is the three and experience eight to five morning line favorite. I went to the far outside with the co-second or actually, yeah, i think it's the co-second choice at four to one, the, the eight, three B's.
00:29:10
Speaker
I, this was the one race that I really didn't come up with a quick clear cut, uh, runner that i liked i had to look at this a few times it was kind of like process of elimination and just the fact that i just i'm tossing that uh second turf try for three b's last time out in 150 000 stake comes back at the level uh that he won by a nose
00:29:43
Speaker
gets an upgrade with Jose Ortiz in the irons. And this is just where I think the horse belongs. And ah other than anybody else in here, i the the favorite has early speed. I see the the one King's leap and possibly the four.
00:30:02
Speaker
um Dear Chairman, as those who hopefully will keep the favorite honest without walking on the lead and go and gate the wire, do you see this any differently or what's your opinion, Eric?
00:30:17
Speaker
Yeah, well, just real quickly, you know one of the things about doing a podcast a couple days before a race – is we're analyzing races without any public handicapper, I guess, too, but we don't know scratches and all. And if there's a scratch, things can change, and maybe the three becomes a low in speed on paper if the one scratches potentially. So you have to be ready to adjust, as I would, too.
00:30:40
Speaker
i have an opinion in this race. It might not be right, but when you have a, I wouldn't say a huge favorite, but a decent-sized favorite here, I think it's important to decide, you know, is this a favorite that I'm in with or I'm...
00:30:51
Speaker
Not in with. And if you have any hesitation, you might as well be out. You have an even money or 85 shot. If you're not like, you know, gung ho about the horse, I would either not bet the race or I would bet against the horse. And if you don't like the horse, definitely bet against. So I might have the wrong opinion, but I'm gonna try and beat the three and experience. Horse has only the one race on the dirt and it was on the slop and got out to a fairly easy lead.
00:31:15
Speaker
Yes, one by a thousand lengths. But it was an off-the-turf, non-warriors of 1Xs or 2Xs, a tougher spot. And I don't know. How is the horse going race on dry dirt? What if he doesn't get an easy lead? So to me, there are reasons to play against that experience. Obviously, if she put or he puts up that figure again, horse is going to win easily. But I'm going to take a swing against this horse. And my only problem is i don't necessarily have huge prices
00:31:46
Speaker
in here a little bit and i'll talk about how bet the race because i haven't really talked much about betting because i haven't really come across a race in the sequence i i'm going bet until this one so anyway who are the three horses that i prefer as alternatives uh i like your eight horse i won't repeat everything you said i tossed the last race that was on the turf ran okay at the same level actually won at this level two back on the dirt his last dirt race also going a mile Now you mentioned sarcastically how I love the mile. This is the Wilton chute.
00:32:14
Speaker
So I would not want to invest a lot of money on any one horse in the Wilton chute because in an eight horse race, four of them are going to have trouble at the start and you don't know which four it's going to be. it's the dumbest thing. Well, there's plenty of dumb things, but it's one of the dumbest things in racing and definitely at Naira and Saratoga to start on the turn where if you're the one horse, if you don't make a right turn out of the gate, you're basically going hit the rail. So you have to go bear out. If you're the eight horse or seven horse, if you don't go left out of the gate, you're going be hung eight wide on the turn because you already started the turn. So have the outside going in, the inside going out. If you don't just dart out from the middle, you get sandwiched. It's like, it's just...
00:32:54
Speaker
It's potluck, I feel. And you have a 50-50 chance of getting nailed at the start and your race is over. So I hate this um race.
00:33:06
Speaker
Dynamics or whatever you want to call it, where the gate is and all that. it I think it's stupid. I generally haven't been betting these races, so now I'm saying we're bet it, which is bad. But anyway, so you mentioned the eight, won this at this level two back on the dirt and ran pretty well. I tossed the last one because of the turf, so why can't he win at this same level once again? i think he has a good shot here. I don't love the post, but got a good shot. At least he won't get squeezed, just might get caught wide.
00:33:31
Speaker
He's eligible again because he's off to the tag. It's an allowance optional claimer. So the eight, three Vs, the five horse out of the shorter prices the one I would like out of the shorter price horses. Last race, I remember handicapping June 19th. I don't know if it was because of late scratches or what it was, but there was no pace on paper in the race. And I like this horse. I'm like, how can I bet Whittingham Park when there's no pace and he's a closer?
00:33:56
Speaker
Well, what ends up happening is he... broke and he was toward the back and Manny Franco aboard him, I guess it realized there was like no pace in the race. And he just rushed up in a big middle move to get to the front. And then pace was slow. The time was slow and the speeds held because of that.
00:34:14
Speaker
But that's not his game, and he shouldn't have to do that here. So out of the short prices, I kind of like Whittingham Park. And then the horse I probably would lean to just because I view these three that I'm about to say, the five, the eight, and now the two horse, Burning Beauty, somewhat similarly. So why not take the bigger price?
00:34:32
Speaker
And that's another gambling thing or betting thing. If I have three horses who I like fairly evenly, I'm going to go for the bigger price and key that horse. So I would key the two here, Burning Beauty, Burning Beauty won a state-bred first-level allowance, three back on March 21st. I have a big plus sign next to that race. This horse really exploded late. If you're into replays at all or you haven't watched but you want to, just watch that March 21st race.
00:34:58
Speaker
It looked like the horse was not going to win mid-stretch or or top of the stretch and then just shot through. Yeah, again, it's weaker, but I was very visually impressed with that race. Comes back at this level, has had two races, a fifth and a fourth.
00:35:11
Speaker
But last race was that Whittingham Park race, and there was no pace. And this is a horse who comes off the pace, not a huge like way back closer per se, although has been, but you know middle of pack, a little towards the back. And I just think had no chance. I thought Franco did a good job on Whittingham Park to give him a shot there.
00:35:29
Speaker
um burning beauty just had to rely on the pace falling apart and it didn't and if there's no scratches i think you'll get a better pace today so i like burning beauty here the two or so i'm kind on the two five eight there's i want to talk about how i'll bet it and there's two other horses i'm going to include but before i do because don't want to hog it all uh if you want to jump in jump in and then i'll finish up and i'll try and be real quick i do anything i want to add before you go over your betting strategy yeah believe it or not pointing burning beauty was the second horse that i came up with here thinking Third off the bench, um didn't get embarrassed by three Bs, two back, and then the winning ham Park race that you had mentioned, no no pace or whatever. So, yeah, for 10-1, like you said, if you're undecided between using two horses, never throw out the price horse, correct? i I wouldn't agree to that, yeah, definitely.
00:36:26
Speaker
So your betting strategy for this race. right. So the other two words I'm just going to throw in, maybe he doesn't have a shot, but the six Jackson Heights. This is one those who I made some money on. I think it was – was it two years ago last year at Saratoga? Won a couple in a row. I think it was – oh, maybe was last year. It's kind of off the program. I thought he won a couple in a row. Maybe it one race. As it closed, they shortened him up for long, and I think a lot of people thought he couldn't get off, but he got off, and I had him there 10-1. That's not why like him. just – I mean, he's run well at Saratoga, although he's thrown in some bad race at Saratoga. I just feel like six furlongs a little short for him last race. And I think he might be rounding back into form off the EK, if that's how he pronounce it, Cantormasi claim. So I think this horse has a shot, especially if there's some pace in the race. And then the seven horse, Elysian Meadows, who...
00:37:10
Speaker
I wouldn't love if it wasn't six to one or higher, but at six to one, I'm willing to take a stab. Same thing. I thought six furlongs might be a little short for this horse. I mean, I know he's run well at six furlongs, but, um you know, we'll see the mile. Maybe that's too far for him. and Maybe he's just not that good. I mean, he's like the perfect set for trying to find like the exact distance here, but this horse hasn't won a lot.
00:37:29
Speaker
But he's often in the mix. He was closing very well last race at six furlongs. It was like the race fell apart. Two back, he closed into a race that didn't have much pace at seven furlongs. So I think Elysian Meadows has a shot to definitely be in the mix here, if not you know be a winner. So those are the horses I'm interested There are five of them. So how will I play it? Well, that experience is really short, like even money or less.
00:37:53
Speaker
I might even throw as a spread a five-horse box here, like a five-horse triple box for $0.50 is $30. I don't know if I'm going to do that. That's only if an experience is really short because it's not like I have tons of prices. But most likely, and a lot of people don't have that budget that they're betting $50, $6 on if you are,
00:38:13
Speaker
think that's something to think about. However, my other main bets will be keying the two. So what I'll do is I'll bet an exacta two with five, six, seven, eight.
00:38:25
Speaker
That'll be an X-Acto box. I might bet two with the 5-8 extra because I happen to like those a little more. But that's what I'll be doing there. So I need the two first or second. And then I'll do a triple box where I'll do two with 5-6-7-8. Now, 50 cents would cost you 18 bucks on that, but that's what I'm going to do. And
Race 11: Jack and Jim in the Spotlight
00:38:42
Speaker
then I might do extra two with 5-8 in that. eleven It's just three-horse box.
00:38:46
Speaker
Sometimes I'll do like two with 586 and then another triple box, two with 587. So if the two comes in with the five rate, I have a little more on it, relying on the two there. So those are some ideas on how I would bet this race. If the two is 10 to one or more, I'd probably throw a win bet on that horse as well, possibly some horizontals, but I'm not going to go into that. Now, if I was betting a pick five here,
00:39:09
Speaker
Because I'm trying to beat a big favorite or what could be a big favorite, I would just spread here as much as I have to. So I'd probably go five deep and pick five here, not using the three and trying to beat them and get one of those other horses home. I can see going like three deep or four deep, maybe um using Jackson Heights just because he's a price and maybe leaving out of Leasy Meadows because the horse doesn't win a lot. But Yeah, I would probably go five deep if I played a pick five here, and I'm not using a favorite. When you're beating a big favorite, like I said, I don't mind going deep to beat that big favorite. I wouldn't go five deep with, like, the five favorites, but if I'm beating one, I'm okay with that. All right?
00:39:44
Speaker
That's it. that Sounds like a plan. All right, move on to the fourth leg of this late pick five at Saratoga on Saturday. today Race 11. Same exact conditions as 10, state-bred two.
00:39:58
Speaker
optional claim or 45,902, go to the going a mile and
00:40:08
Speaker
10 horse field with one AE, and in case it comes off, one main track only. The morning line favorite here is the 10 out to the outside, smooth breeze at And i have a theme going on where I appear to be picking the second or third choice in each race.
00:40:29
Speaker
I went with the second choice, the eight horse, Jack and Jim, three to one morning line And the reason why ah is basically the horse continues to improve. Obviously, the horse was off for year and a half ah after winning two races. Obviously, it was something physical.
00:40:55
Speaker
They brought the horse back. He was bet, not the favorite, but he was bet. I had an incident during the the race that you may or may not have seen on a replay. They probably cut it out or whatever. It's in it's in there. Oh, OK, good. Then you can expand on that. But um just and then, you know, that was his first time on Lasix.
00:41:17
Speaker
based on how the race was being run and until i he clipped the foe and and lost his jock, it appears that he he was making a move, and you can expand on that, Eric, if you can.
00:41:32
Speaker
and that that's why I i use a horse that I think will improve ah with age this four-year-old. Yeah, um i i figured you'd come up with this horse because a Maryland-based trainer, so you know that's a reason enough. But yeah, if you watch the replay, the horse, now you Jack and Jim the 8 was coming off a, is that a two-year layoff almost, year and a half? I remember was like 18 months or 20 months maybe. Yeah, and Grand Motion's very good.
00:42:05
Speaker
But that's still not easy to win off of. And if you looked at the race, to me, you have to do a little guessing. But he was swinging toward the outside, and the horse looked like he had a ton of horse. Like, it's guessing, but I think the horse was going to win the race.
00:42:20
Speaker
And Clip Teels and the horse didn't go down, but Manny Franco fell off the horse. So I think that horse was going to win that race. Two for two before that. So easily it could be three for three here.
00:42:31
Speaker
I would assume it's going to improve even off of that race, having been off long layoff there. So I think the eight horse Jack and Jim's the winner here. And if I was betting a pick five, and if I do, this is a horse I would single in the pick five and If the horse doesn't win, he doesn't win. But that's ah that would be my single in the pick five, Jack and Jim, if I had one. If the horse is three to one or higher, i would bet a win bet on the horse as well. I don't know if I'd bet the race otherwise. I might do like multi-race bets. You know, not in a pick five. I can see doing a double, trying to beat an experience.
00:43:04
Speaker
So like from last race, I'd use the five horses with this eight horse here in a double. You do a dollar, it's only five bucks. But I bet more on like the two, five, eight from race 10 into the eight here. So I'd have more here. My fear is they're going to overbet this horse and pound this horse. But if not, I do like the horse. And, you know, the other Chalks look okay. Iron Max has had his chances, though. He's run well.
00:43:28
Speaker
He was out finished last time. Yeah. Yeah, the winner had a perfect trip last time Iron Max was in the race, just for luck, just snuck through the rail, and Iron Max went to the outside. It's not like he was really wide, but he went outside where the winner just snuck through the rail. But he was outfinished, and I don't know, maybe he's just not that much of a winner anymore. I know he's had success in the past, but at lower level.
00:43:49
Speaker
He's going to run well probably and has a good chance, but do I really want to short price on him? And then the 10 smooth breeze is tough because two back at this level, the horse ran race that would win. I mean, he had horrible, horrible trouble that race against a bunch of these. He was shuffled out on the second turn badly and then lacked room in the stretch. I mean if you look at the buyer for that race, I know I'm not a big buyer fan or speed figure fan necessarily on – especially turf races, but I'm going to look the winner that race.
00:44:17
Speaker
And this is the 10 smooth breeze to back on April 24th. The winner in that race got a 90 buyer. And this horse would have won for fun, I think. So he would had like a 90 something buyer. Now you put that race in there, take out the last race. This horse is like, you know, i don't know, four to five, three to five. So that's great. Now, last time tried to tackle allowance foes in the Kingston and New York bred,
00:44:39
Speaker
stakes race and didn't run well did it the only excuse is he was going against better horses but he had a good trip and just kind of sucked i guess the other excuse me bago don't know if you remember that race gq we were probably chatting about our group me bago walked around the track on that day and wired the field so um maybe there was not much pace to close but this horse just got totally outrun and those were better you can argue no lasix but He's run fine with no Lasix in the past. going tell me he hasn't won a race with no Lasix, but it's not like he's won. He's only won two races anyway, so it's not like he... Oh, no, he did win his first race, no Lasix, so there you go, or first race on the screen. Anyway, I'm rambling here. Has been gelded since. I don't know if that means anything, so if you can excuse last race, this horse is by far the best horse, so I... I mean, I don't know what to do there, but at a short price, I think the horse is probably going to run well and have the second-best chance of winning with the 8 being the most likely winner me, but the 10 is good. But I don't want to bet the 8 with the 7 and the 10. If I like the three favorites a little bit, i'm just I'd sooner either sit out or just pick one of them, and which I'm doing. But I'd definitely like the 8 more, especially if he's the better price of the three or or equal price.
00:45:44
Speaker
I think the 4, Mo Trump, has a little bit of a shot. There's a horse who I remember at a big price, Yeah, last year, big price, 24-1, wired the field up to Saratoga. There's definitely more speed on paper here, but lot of times jockeys don't go, so maybe he can steal the race. I thought he ran pretty well off a ah mild layoff last time.
00:46:03
Speaker
Came in third, but you know chased five to two shot and came in fourth. And Leon Blue, I think, might not have developed much from his three-year-old season, but this is the one I really liked last year.
00:46:14
Speaker
Didn't run well last time, but it was against that Kingston better field, so... If I can forgive the 10, I can forgive Leon Blue, I guess. So those are two outsiders a little bit that I like. And Conman off the layoff isn't terrible. Ran a really good race at this level on August 10th at Saratoga.
00:46:31
Speaker
Then went in the West Point of Stakes race, Conman, and didn't run particularly well, but that was better. And then i don't know what happened. you know, might've telled off a little bit at the end. So if he's freshened now, maybe he has a chance, but anyway, long way of saying I like the eight. And
Final Race Insights and Galway Anecdote
00:46:45
Speaker
since I don't dislike the other chalks, don't love them, but I don't dislike them. I'm probably not betting this race other than a win bet. And like I said, I'll single the eight Jack and Jim and horizontals.
00:46:55
Speaker
All right. Let's move on to the final leg of this late pick five. It's our togo on Saturday 12 boy. If boy if If you didn't have an opinion much of an opinion in race 11, I can't wait to hear your opinion in 12. We talked a little bit before we started recording that, boy, if you have a New York bred Philly, three-year-olds and up, you ought to just enter in this race because if they're giving away $100,000 purse these horses, race,
00:47:32
Speaker
whoever whoever wins this race might have lost their best friend forever. I'm not sure. There's a lot of question marks with horses, fillies in here.
00:47:42
Speaker
um With that being said, i went back to ah my Maryland trainer, just not... All coincidental, had nothing to do with the the Maryland connection.
00:47:57
Speaker
But the two ors, a per teeth, I guess that's how you pronounce it. You're not a you're not a drinker, are you? I am not, but I guess that's considering the Sire is Vino Rosso, I should have... Yes, I would say pre-meal of cordial that people drink to whet their appetites, from what I gather. As as as you you know what by hanging out with me, I'm the default designated driver when our group gets together. So not that I...
00:48:30
Speaker
don't drink, but I can, you know, stay away from it for a good cause. So yeah, but based on your driving, don't know if that would be a lot better there there' There's someone who lives in my area and has a nice little place where we stayed for the Belmont weekend in Saratoga who who will um dispute that my driving acumen.
00:48:57
Speaker
it it's It's my um passengers who are giving me the directions, my GPS people. are but Thank you, Eric, for pulling out your phone and actually getting the GPS so we would get there. We're going somewhere we don't know where we're going. you have an 80-year-old in the passenger seat.
00:49:18
Speaker
Rely on him rather than you know GPS. That worked out really well. So after like 17 turns trying to go 10 minutes away to dinner at Monmouth, We finally put the GPS on and got there pretty quickly. But yeah. and Right. And the inside joke was that, oh it's just off the main drag. And I think we made about eight turns and we're on five different main drags before we actually found the restaurant.
00:49:42
Speaker
But it was it was all good fun. Yeah. I'd do it all again. it's ah It was a great time. I'm just upset you didn't get to go to Marbella's for dinner with us. They changed last minute. It's a good place.
00:49:56
Speaker
But you know what? One of my favorite restaurants down there. What was it? Zachary's is the place were at? Yeah, that was heard them talking about it today. Maybe it was on Steve Bick's show, but they were talking about Zachary's. I'm trying to think where it was and how Frank Miramati wants it. Oh, yeah, it was – Well, Miramati is a pizza guy like Dave Portnoy. Yeah, so we went to Zachary's instead – I got the pizza there and I'm gonna i'm gonna be made fun of. they freak normai I doubt he listens to our show, but he's gonna be upset.
00:50:28
Speaker
I just think it wasn't good. I don't know. I'm not really a thin crust guy, I guess, maybe anyway, but even like up here where I live in New York, I get thin crust and it's good. Like I just went out the other day. it was a two days ago or last night with thought with my family and got it. And it was like much better than Zachary's I thought, but I don't know, maybe I'm wrong and Zachary's good, but I'm kind of you know, I feel like from New York a pizza snob and I just didn't love it.
00:50:51
Speaker
Why don't you give your pizza place where you got the pizza a free plug? You know, if if you like their pizza, you know, give them a plug. Say where you got it.
00:51:01
Speaker
Oh, no one's going to know. A place in Farmingdale, New York called Vest Butts. It's not even that great, but it's good. It was better than that. I'm not raving about that, but it was better. It's an upgrade from North Jersey pizza.
00:51:14
Speaker
Yeah, well, Jersey Pizza is probably pretty good, to be honest, but I just i just wasn't – it wasn't terrible. I just wasn't a fan, and it I don't want to mention a name, but it made one of our crew, should say, up all night in the bathroom, but it wasn't one of us. That's okay.
00:51:30
Speaker
We don't want – We're losing focus quickly. but i last but so So you like the two, a pair of teeth. I didn't even say anything about the race. Oh, no, I did. i did. I'm sorry. Gosh, I'm old.
00:51:46
Speaker
My short-term memories. Well, what do you like about a pair of teeth? I mispronounced the two words that I like. Why do you like him? Explain to everybody. Tenth try is a charm.
00:51:59
Speaker
No, I mean – ah Best of a poor lot, as my dad would say. you know um Can you really trust the four red velvet cake coming off of the long layoff?
00:52:13
Speaker
Was a beaten favorite in both starts. Now shows up on the turf. Is this because the horse doesn't have any stamina and can't go six furlongs on the dirt?
00:52:25
Speaker
I mean, turf breeding really isn't all that. And um the trainer, Melanie Giddings, over the past three years is 0 for 29 on the turf, 0 for 36 dirt to turf.
00:52:44
Speaker
And this is one of your perfect races where you know you beg to find the price.
00:52:50
Speaker
actually give the one horse my first diner a shot. The horse is turf bred. the The trainer hasn't won forever, but, you know, the horse doesn't know that. And it hasn't run terrible in the past. So, um you know, and and I'm not interested in either of the first timers, the six, shake them off.
00:53:18
Speaker
I'm not I'm not a workout guy as far as times. I am a workout guy when it comes to consistency and a horse leading up to its first race with consistent works, meaning every seven to 10 days apart, evenly spaced.
00:53:36
Speaker
And this one's just had too many gaps in between. know, it's like you you go back through four works, you know, a 25 day gap from June 1st and June 2nd. And before that,
00:53:48
Speaker
it was a month, you know, is that leading up to a winning ah try? Plus, again, you know, um I don't think busting stones was much as much of a turf horse from what I remember. i don't even think he ran a turf at all.
00:54:05
Speaker
I mean, and then last week we touched on Linda Rice, how she's not very successful in her turf debut runners around 6% or whatever, but yet Um, the morning line, seven to two, probably maybe the workout reports saying something, but you know what? The race is on turf, turf, not dirt.
00:54:29
Speaker
You know, who you know, Jose Ortiz and Linda Rice will take money, I guess, but, um, not, not, not those odds. So that's why, you know, uh, for a really big price, why not give the one a look?
00:54:44
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not going to laugh at you for betting the one. I don't particularly care for the horse, but if you like him. I kind of agree a lot with you in this race. Well, you didn't really say much, to be honest, but i kind of agree with you. Apparente makes sense here, just as Ron probably the you know best race on the turf.
00:55:00
Speaker
I guess the argument against her being has had her chances. The one thing I will say, two back for Aparitif. The winner had an easy lead. was a 5-2 shot. And Aparitif didn't really have a chance to run that horse down. The last time got off to a slow start, which hurt.
00:55:15
Speaker
So i can make excuses a little bit for Aparitif, but... you know how short a price do you want to take on a horse who's had a lot of chances um i agree if the four is five to two again i don't have an opinion here but the four is five to two i'm not betting that horse for connections and don't do well first time turf and i mean horse has been off a while so i don't know i just can't see that my problem here and the reason i said i wasn't going to play the pick five is race nine i have not much of an opinion and this one i have less of an opinion you know I don't like your one, but I wouldn't laugh at you. The two I i like a little bit, but only because of the competition.
00:55:49
Speaker
Three, donk is not good first-time turf. I have no idea. Maybe I throw the horse in like Ariel. The four I said at a short price I don't want. The one horse who if I bet I guess my opinion would be, I try and take a stab on the five Galway girl. Galway? Galway? Galway? I was in Galway and I don't even know. I guess Galway.
00:56:10
Speaker
By the way, when I went to Ireland a few years back, that was by far my favorite city. So if you go to Ireland, I recommend Galway. We made a mistake of spending too much time in Dublin. We started, and not that anyone cares, but we started in Dublin. We drew it we flew to Dublin, drove across country, with only only a couple hours, and then slowly over the week or week and a half made our way back to Dublin. But we started in Galway. We had a blast, but only stayed one night, maybe two. And I would stayed a little more in Galway. Actually went to the races in Galway. wasn't even planned. They happened to have races there. So it was awesome.
00:56:41
Speaker
cost me a lot of money to go. because I necessarily lost money, but I was with my wife at the time. And to get her to go, I kind of, you know, we had to go shopping to compensate and spend a lot of money. But anyway, ah so the five horse, Galway and girl, if I was playing around this race, that that's who I'd bet. She has experience, which helps here. And she checked really badly at the start in her first start, rushed up four wide, and then predictably faded. Now,
00:57:08
Speaker
I mean, she got crushed. So I don't know, just because she's better than she looks, she might still not be anything. You also had a Via Villapino, who I remember won a race some this year, i think. I can't remember on what horse, but I actually had the jockey. But even though I'm not a huge Kevin Dennis fan per se, he's still probably an upgraded in jockey, I would think. And if the horse can get out a little better, doesn't get a a four wide trip,
00:57:32
Speaker
in this, what I would call not that strong a field. I think the five has an outside shot. So I say I have no opinion, but I guess I'll play around with the five. She's 15 to one. You're already talking about the first time starters. Yeah. I can see the Linda rice doing something here, the nine horse, but do I want a short price? I kind of would bet the nine combat move because I don't really like much else.
00:57:51
Speaker
Um, The seven ran a good race two back, but then last sucked daylight dreamer and no apparent excuse. So if you want to be like, Hey, the horse, you know, give an excuse and gets back to her race two back. She definitely could win this to seven, but I don't know. Do you want to, I mean, at least five to one is not three to one, two to one on the horse. And the eight, and I didn't love the eighth races. My little army get girl.
00:58:15
Speaker
Against Maiden 50, so why do i want her why would I want her against Maiden Special 8? I mean, Depaz red hot, I guess, so maybe the horse will run above her PPs, but I don't really care for the 8. So I'd probably use the 5.
00:58:27
Speaker
I'd try and beat the 8. I'd try and beat the 4 Maybe I'd link the 5 and the 2 together because I think the 2 will run a decent race. So I'd do like 2-5-3, 2-5-3.
00:58:40
Speaker
you know, nine, whatever exact the boxes, triple boxes and, and try and get the two and five together. And then I just key the five with the other horses too. And again, i might bet the race. I might not, but I don't have a strong opinion here, but I would mean five and two. If I had to like, you know, if we were like a show where you had to pick like your top four horses or top three, I probably go five, two. And then i don't know after that, to be honest, but those would be the ones that lean on.
00:59:04
Speaker
So no
Episode Wrap-Up and Future Plans
00:59:05
Speaker
strong opinion here. so So what we've learned is that I should get on the phone with the Chamber Commerce in Ireland in order to try to see if they can sponsor us since you're you're a big proponent of going to Ireland and hitting the racetracks and stay stay at Galway more than Dublin.
00:59:28
Speaker
Yeah, Dublin, I went to Leopardstown, which was a cool racetrack to go to. And it's so different. I know we're going long. I shouldn't open tangent, but what the heck What's another minute at this point?
00:59:39
Speaker
Yeah, when I went to Dublin and went to Leopardstown, which is just outside the city or the outskirts the city, I forgot exactly. I thought it was fun. The only thing is the PPs you get there are not like, I don't know. It's just like...
00:59:51
Speaker
past results it doesn't give you much and i don't know what i'm doing there so i just bet small and try and have some fun and watch the races and walk around i wish they had better pps for those races by better meaning they give you the last races i can't even watch replays i don't think although i haven't bet european racing and that was like 10 years ago so maybe the technology has changed and There are better PPs out there for it. But when I go back, I'll ah i'll take a look. But I love Ireland. So, yes, call them up.
01:00:18
Speaker
Preferably the Galway Chamber of Commerce, not the double image you said. All right. i got I'd like to wrap up by talking about betting a pick-five ticket. But, A, we went long this week. B, I don't really have a pick-five ticket here. Again, that first leg throws me off because I don't want to take Cypher at three to five, but I'm not really looking to bet against him or her. So that really throws me off there. Race nine and race 12, I would want to go almost everyone, it seems. So I don't really love that.
01:00:43
Speaker
Race 10, I'm happy to try and beat an experience and go five deep. So that's good. But when you have to go. eight deep and two other legs, you can't really bet it. And I'm okay with the single in race 11. So I guess I can cobble something together with race 10, five deep and race 11 singling. But if you're out there and you do listen to our opinion, I'd rather you listen to how we approach the race than our actual picks.
01:01:05
Speaker
But that's what I would do if you had to pick five and you were looking to narrow or what to do. I'd go five deep beating an experience and race 10 and single what Jack and John, whatever his name is in race 11, eight. I forgot. Yeah.
01:01:17
Speaker
Jack and Jim. Oh, I got it. We went long. So, GQ, you want to wrap it up and I'll say goodbye. Yeah. ah No, thanks again, everyone, for listening. We actually had few dozen or more people in our second reboot from the first. So thank you for those who are getting the word out. And thank you to those on an old.
01:01:39
Speaker
Facebook group that I'm still officially a member called the Homeless Handicappers. We were able to post on there. People welcomed me, said, hey, great to hear from you. So I wish they continued to to listen and everybody else. And, you know, tell your friends we are here as a service to horse players to make hopefully make you better not only handicappers, but better bettors, hence the name of the podcast.
01:02:12
Speaker
We don't make a dime. We do it because we love the sport and we want people to be successful because we see too many other avenues out there where ah people are being led astray and they'll get quickly um discouraged based on their results. So That's all I have. Have a great weekend, everyone. the but Based on where you're listening from, it's probably going to be hot.
01:02:40
Speaker
Be safe. Hopefully there are races across the country for the weekend. And um that's about it, Eric. ah Say your goodbyes.
01:02:51
Speaker
right. Well, ah we'll be with you a little earlier next week. I'm heading up to Saratoga, so we have to record early in the week. So we'll be out a little early next week and look forward to talking to you then. Thanks for listening. Ta-ta.