Transcript
Eric Rubin: Hey, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm not here with my partner, the king of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ. Has some family stuff going on. His daughter's getting married. I hope he doesn't mind me saying that. So we gave him a pass for the week.
Eric Rubin: And we were able to actually find an amazing guest who will do a great job filling in for him. He's fairly new to the Naira circuit. but we welcome in Jackson Muniz. Jackson.
Eric Rubin: Welcome to some Better Betting.
jackson muniz: Hey, Eric. Thanks for having me on. Excited to excited for to reopen. I've been hearing about it for... I don't know, three years now and we we're three days away as as the time that we're recording this. So it's it's an exciting time to be here in in New York.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, no, definitely. i I've been going to Belmont since I'm a kid. I grew up maybe 13 minute drive, 14 minute drive from Belmont. So kind of exciting. I admit I really like Belmont, so I'm hoping I still like it, but I'm i'm sure I will.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I think they left so the outdoor space for the most part.
jackson muniz: Hmm?
Eric Rubin: You can still sit in the backyard. Is that true? Do you know?
jackson muniz: Yeah, I don't know if it's going to be ready opening day, but it's going to be there eventually. Yes. Um,
Eric Rubin: Okay.
jackson muniz: Yeah, it'll be good.
Eric Rubin: That's awesome. our Our audience probably knows who you are at this point because you're on TV a lot on the network circuit doing talking horses with Andy Serling. pretty often.
Eric Rubin: But for those who are not that familiar with you or they see you on Talking Horses and don't really know much about you, maybe just a few minutes before we get into this League Pick 5, if you can tell us about your background, how you got into horse racing, and how you arrived at Naira.
jackson muniz: Sure. So I was screwed from the start because I've been going to the racetrack since I was. i don't know probably a week old my dad took me the first time and there's pictures of i'm from from southern california so We're a big Del Mar family. There's pictures of my dad holding me at...
jackson muniz: at the EMCO at Del Mar when I'm three months old and that's pretty much all my first memories are. are going to the racetrack. So I've always been involved there. That's how I learned how to count, how to read. ah all that stuff, whether it was the racing form or or whatever. So I've always been going there. Like I said, we're a big Del Mar family. My my dad and my uncles both work in schools. So I was like, okay, well.
jackson muniz: We don't work during the summer, so instead of going to do whatever, we're going to go to the racetrack. So always growing up there. and then as you know as i got older Um, slowly started doing some Content stuff with within the money media that was about four or five years ago now, I would say.
jackson muniz: And then. muzz was mostly doing some writing with them and then slowly but surely kind of branched out to do some content stuff and then joined a couple other podcasts and just. It all can happen really fast, but just start meeting.
jackson muniz: so many people that are in the industry and you know one thing led to and to another and um Yeah, and now now we're here. I've applied for... I guess I should back up a little bit Eventually I got really into, obviously I was betting quite a bit.
jackson muniz: quite a hit but um I really started playing the contest a lot. and got really, really into that. um had Some success, not at the giant ones. yet but definitely at the lower levels it did pretty well in the live bankroll at least and um There was a job opportunity here at Naira that was running all the contas up here and applied for it. and Got very lucky, and and and here we are. So been doing that for...
jackson muniz: Three months now. um started right around the belmont stakes time so Been doing all the contest stuff. We're happy with the way. it went to summer and excited to see how it continues to to grow. into the fall at dalmite and Been fortunate enough to do Talking Horses a couple of times over the summer as well. And well that'll continue this this fall at Belmont. so Pretty exciting. A lot of it happened. Pretty fast, but we're...
jackson muniz: I'm not comp complaining one bit I'm excited for it.
Eric Rubin: Awesome. and And one reason we're really excited to have you on the show is hearing you on Talking Horses, you seem extremely prepared and knowledgeable, which is great because a lot of people, when they sit next to Andy, can...
Eric Rubin: come across as not that well prepared compared to him because he puts in so much time and you uh you definitely do your homework and do a great job so we're really excited to have you here and uh final question then we'll get started i'm putting you on the spot a little bit But since you're a Southern Cal guy, I know your answer. But since I haven't been to Del Mar yet.
Eric Rubin: ah But Del Mar, Saratoga, I know they're different.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Are you going to get beat up back at home if you say Saratoga? Or are you going to lose your job if you say Del Mar?
jackson muniz: It's... it's if
Eric Rubin: So it's a tough question.
jackson muniz: It's still Dunbar for now, but that gap is closing with each and every stride. um it's It is very different. it it It blew my mind the first time I walked in. to saratoga how just how fast it is first of all i think the i didn't even know the backyard was there i didn't know the backyard was thing and that's I think the coolest part.
jackson muniz: about Saratoga and I had my family come out for Travers weekend and they Their minds were blown too.
Eric Rubin: Mm hmm.
jackson muniz: They loved it. we got him a table right on the rail where they did the walk over and everything so it's awesome and it's fun to have you know they have the great ones pretty much every single saturday which is always always really cool
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and the backyard is the place to be, in my opinion, as well. I've been going there. I think I've gone every year except for the COVID year since 91, maybe 92. I don't know the exact start, but right around there. I always sit in the backyard. I was there, I think, four occasions this year, so four different weeks. and ah sitting by the big screen in the backyard, right across from the paddock bar there.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I just love that area. You see the horses coming out and all. Definitely great there. All right, so without further ado, I don't want to keep you all night, and I'm sure the people out there want to hear. some opinions on some races here. So we'll get started. We're covering the late Pick five.
Eric Rubin: from Belmont on Saturday, September 19th. It begins with race six, a state bred maiden special weight going a mile on the Widener turf course. and i guess in this race it's tough because we're doing this before the morning lines came out But I'm assuming in this race, the seven, the Chad Brown will be the favorite here.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Most likely around five to two, two to one. Maybe I'm off. If you disagree, you can tell me. What are your opinions on the seven? I want to pronounce the name. I don't even think I can. Equilibrate. Equilibrate.
Eric Rubin: I'm gonna go with that.
jackson muniz: That's what I would say.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
jackson muniz: Equilibrate.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
jackson muniz: Um, Yeah, I agree. I think it'll be fair. I mean, Harry probably... Probably has to going out for for Chad. These connections got the turf pedigree. And he ran well on debut. Obviously, he ran into Scramjet, who came back and won the state race on...
jackson muniz: closing weekend i believe it was um and if he you know he ran that race that you kind of want to see going Going short, he had enough speed to get in the mix, but just kind of ran evenly. and Yeah, he's a horse that's going to stretch out.
jackson muniz: No doubt about it. And Chad is also really good with his moves. Second time starters, third sprints with turf routes. He's eight for 27 in my code. half of them hit the board so this is obviously something Chad is good at as he's got many many things um I didn't pick him on top. I do think this is...
jackson muniz: One of the stronger New York Red Races I think we've seen, at least as far as Saratoga. went. um The horse I ended up picking in here is is the horse that was outside raised the roof.
jackson muniz: um I would expect him to be a ah price in here, but just watching back that that race. he He took a lot of money. and didn't break great and i just thought enough things went wrong where he slightly stayed at the start steady Not significantly at all, but it was a slight study to start. slight steady in the back stretch, slight steady heading into the far turn.
jackson muniz: And then finally the rider's like, screw it, I'm going four wide on the turn. And he did. And again, a horse that kind of just ran evenly. and galloped out. okay but Another trainer who... for Horacio to pause, who always gets better with a start under his belt. This horse was ready to go much longer than the five and a half furlongs. And I just think enough things went wrong from that day. that I don't want to give him a chance to to run much better in this spot.
jackson muniz: And I don't see him taking a whole lot of money here. As you said, we're doing this before the morning lines come out. but i can't see him any being any lower than six to one he might be even closer to probably 10 to 1 if I had to guess.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I don't I don't know this is tough because I don't love this race for the fact that none of these workouts were... filmed uh that first bed or whatever does the workouts i tried to find and i found pretty much none there might be like one horse or two horses that had works but it's really hard when you met in first time starters uh and you don't have much to go on here, at least.
jackson muniz: Mm -hmm
Eric Rubin: as far as workouts go. First time starters going long, like for me, I tend to avoid them unless there's certain trainers. And one of those trainers is Christophe Clement. And Christophe Clement, oh, I'm sorry, Miguel Clement, it was Christophe Clement, may he rest.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: But now his son, Miguel, who's taken over the operation, he has basically continued his dad's success first time out going long. And he trains the five Falconer with Joel Rosario making his return to New York.
Eric Rubin: What's your opinion on number five Falconer? Do you have an opinion being a first time starter with not much to go on?
jackson muniz: Now it's kind of with your mom kind of way to see it I think there's gonna be workout reports for Velma. I'm just curious what they have to say. about this horse not that they're going to be super flashy for a horse it's supposed to be better well on the grass obviously but as you said this is something Miguel does a good job of. there's Not a huge turf pedigree, but the fact that he's on the grass is probably... Eat up. They know what they're doing. They know what they have in here.
jackson muniz: um they paid a lot of money for this horse too so i'm going to keep an eye on them Let's hope more on this one. i will I will say I was talking about this with ah with a friend earlier, there but I'm really curious to see how... Rosario does getting back to Thelma and not that I was super and attended to Belmont beforehand, but it felt like that's where he was always at his best in New York.
jackson muniz: anecdotally. I don't know if you agree with that or not.
Eric Rubin: Well, I'll tell you how he'll do. He'll save ground on both turns and then I'll get stuck in the stretch on the rail.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: That's how I'll do. But you know what?
jackson muniz: That checks out.
Eric Rubin: You know, it's funny.
jackson muniz: i
Eric Rubin: I used to really like Joel Rosario as a jockey. like He was one of my top jockeys. When we started this podcast, it was during COVID. so about six years ago. we We were just having fun talking about jockeys and he was in my top three and I He might've been my like second jockey or first jockey as far as like who I thought was the best.
jackson muniz: Hmm.
Eric Rubin: And he was riding so well at that point. And I don't know. I'm not, obviously he knows a lot more about riding than. I know in my little, pink you know, he has more knowledge in his pinky than I know in my whole brain here. But.
Eric Rubin: I just, I've lost a lot of faith in him when I bet him, but...
jackson muniz: and
Eric Rubin: He's still very capable, and ah he he is good at saving ground. So you will save ground this race probably with that five.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: and You know, you hope he can find a seam unless he's on the lead somehow. ah Just ah a couple of things. First of all, the eight raised the roof, who Jackson already spoke about being his, ah you know, if he was making a pick, a top pick here.
Eric Rubin: ah Raise the roof. I'm not gonna repeat what you said, but he also was was up there for me my My fear of the seven equilibrate, but you kind of. answer this, so I guess you don't agree, is I'm just worried about the distance. I assume if Chad is stretched out, the numbers are awesome and you mentioned them already.
Eric Rubin: uh just the the First of all, from a mom who's a turf sprinter. So I don't know. It doesn't mean that the horse can't get the distance, but if you're taking a favorite, sometimes doing something that they haven't done before, it could be tough, but it is Chad with the, uh, with the strong numbers too so you can kind of throw it that out the window i guess a little bit
jackson muniz: Sure.
jackson muniz: yeah
jackson muniz: Yeah, and I think what the other... things we should probably mention too is that A lot of the main writers are out of town Saturday, so you have a lot of the...
Eric Rubin: Mm -hmm.
jackson muniz: the b guy the c guys i mean you have jose locano riding this horse for for chad which and he doesn't ride from too often outside of wintertime probably so you're gonna have some you know some guys getting in their shot this weekend they'll probably normally wouldn't.
jackson muniz: um But I'm with you. I think especially if for a horse that's trying to turn for the first time, that's trying the to turn for the first time. I wouldn't pick him on top, but I'm not wildly against him either. Especially if he's going to be favorite. I wouldn't bet him in here.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, same thing. And and you mentioned the Jockeys. I think I'm on Sammy Marin a little bit too much in this League Big Five.
jackson muniz: yeah
Eric Rubin: So I hope he thinks it's like Tampa or Monmouth when he's in New York here and rides well. So just one or two other words ah to mention that we haven't mentioned that people might be interested in. I'll start with the 10.
Eric Rubin: That's Captain George who came in third at this level last time. First out with an outside post. Started with an outside post once again. Had a not of crazy ride trip last time. Under Jamie Rodriguez was two wide in the first turn, two wide in the second turn.
Eric Rubin: Again, there's a 10, Captain George.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: went fine. And Amelia Green is really not, I mean, she hasn't been around that long as far as being a trainer on her own. So it's a small sample size, but I don't think it's one with a first -time star going long, definitely. And overall, first -timers, I don't think she's great, but she's done decently with second -time starters. So I'm assuming this horse will improve. Ricardo Santana is probably one of the top jackets in the race. He's aggressive, might get this horse out. Good position on that. Well, they start in the... ah on the shoot there so i guess that
Eric Rubin: Forget what I was saying on the first turn. It's really like a turn, basically one turn race. But I think Captain George has a decent shot here. And if I'm betting a pick five, I would want to add a 10. depending on the price, unless he's too short, but I don't see that.
Eric Rubin: And also...
jackson muniz: Mm -hmm.
Eric Rubin: Two other words I want to mention. I'll get your opinion on them and feel free to mention anything about the 10 if you want also. But the nine Monaco crown for Mike Maker was a bit rank last time and and kind of.
Eric Rubin: pulling early On the back stretch, kind of green, but... yeah Also kind of saved ground and had a good trip other than that. So if you can talk about the nine monocle crown and then the 11 Island pal, who's the first time started for Cassie.
Eric Rubin: Again, sorry if I'm putting you on the spot talking about first -time starters, but not much to go on.
jackson muniz: very good
Eric Rubin: But if you want to mention anything about those two horses, then if there's anything else. Feel free or else we'll go on to the next race.
jackson muniz: Sure, I'll start with Island Power real quick for for Cassie. and This was one that you could find some works on and I You know, if she wouldn't cut her, he. Went in company with Heat Missile for Cassie, who won an allowance for us this summer at Saratoga on Jim Dandy Day. and I don't know. I thought he held more than held his own. I thought he clearly got the best.
jackson muniz: of that workmate. and Cassie can win first time out. It's not so many. strive to do but they're capable of it um i think i had the horse second it works for interesting And then I was. I preferred Captain George to to Monaco Crown.
jackson muniz: I think I have. I was looking at, I think Amelia is like one for. 50 or something first time out and she's much much better second time so i thought the horse ran
Eric Rubin: Right.
jackson muniz: well enough on debut that he's probably supposed to improve um as far as monaco crown goes yeah i was kind of with you i felt like he had a really good trip like he's out the pocket and maybe he was A little rank, but I thought he should have run a little bit better than he did We'll see if we can move forward with. the trader switch to to Mike maker, but I was. Mostly 8 here, but I had 11 up in the mix as well.
Eric Rubin: All right, and I'm not going to talk too much about it today, but we usually talk about how we bet the races and stuff like that. There's a race where, and I often tell the audience, I look at the favorite and I'm assuming the seven is a favorite.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: and either i like the favorite i'm okay with the price i'm going to keep the favorite or or use them Or I'm against the favorite. And that's when I get really excited and I want to bet the race. When I don't like the favorite, I want to go against him.
jackson muniz: Yeah
Eric Rubin: And then there's other times where it's like, well, I don't hate the favorite, but I don't really want to bet him. And that's kind of one of these times in this case. So even though it's a big field, which I love, it's probably a race I'm not looking, you know, crazily to bet.
Eric Rubin: Is there anything in here that, you know, maybe the eight, if... I don't know if he's going to be as high price as you said. I hope you're right. know If the eight is eight to one, 10 to one, I can definitely see a win bet on the eight.
jackson muniz: Mm -hmm.
Eric Rubin: And if I was betting, I personally would probably key the eight. So I do eight with a few of the other horses, most of which we mentioned. in this ah in this podcast so far.
Eric Rubin: So any any final thoughts?
jackson muniz: Yeah, I would I agree with you. i I felt like there was a lot of contenders in this race that I didn't have a super strong opinion on. And when I have that... ah When that's my opinion of the race, I try to keep it as simple as possible. It'd probably just be a win bet.
jackson muniz: on the eight in here maybe some back of exactus with two horses with the favorite and with the 11 over the eight, but. most of the money would be just ah just a win. But I thought this race was was tough.
Eric Rubin: All right, so we're for the most part on the same page, especially on that top horse, hopefully.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Uh, we're not wise guys getting it wrong and uh, we have some good opinions there All right, moving on to race seven.
jackson muniz: hey
Eric Rubin: This is a six furlong. Oh, no six and a half furlong dirt sprint Claimer, 35 ,000 non -winners of two lifetime. and ah To me, there's gonna be two horses that are gonna take a majority of the money.
Eric Rubin: And again, when I'm looking at a race, I like to look at the favorites first. So that would be the three unauthorized and the seven special ops. I might have missed someone. If you disagree, please jump in, Jackson. But what are your thoughts on those two favorites, unauthorized, the three, the seven special ops? Are you against either one? Are you really for either the one? Are you kind of ambivalent? How do you feel?
jackson muniz: Bye. Yeah, I'll start with Special Ops 2. i would guess it's going to be the the favorite compost time it's probably pretty close but i would expect him to take a little bit more money just because
Eric Rubin: Hmm?
jackson muniz: really that one big race at oakland that never kind of jumped off the page actually against much better. field than this one is. the The problem with him is... he seems them. forgotten how to come out of starting gate in his last two starts.
jackson muniz: I know he was close. lot or two back, I should say. but He didn't break that grid. that day either. Then kind of rushed up and didn't finish very well. And then last time at Delaware, he showed no speed whatsoever. So that's that's a concern for Orson.
jackson muniz: his best work is usually when he's at least somewhat in the mix it does feel like there's There's ah theyre a fair amount of speed here. lie up front necessarily but Yeah, the clash up for me. He's supposed to be favorite here. I just don't Love the way he's run his last couple races. So I'd be I respect him. I'd be against him in here. I wouldn't play him at all. i think id just try to get him out of the picture completely honestly um as far as the three goes unauthorized i He is one. i I think I have him on top in this race. it just feels like the main speed.
jackson muniz: of this field, and I thought the last race was was fine. It was a big prize, and they were 12 -1 in a six -horse field. Did all the dirty work going after Island Town in there who was... I want to say like three to five, four to five. and saddle that horse all the way to the wire. and The horses were off the pace, got the best got the run of the race, and went 1 -2.
jackson muniz: I thought it went fine. And I do feel like this might be it. had easier spot. And with this inside draw, with him having the speed that he has and with some of the speed figures he's run. I put him on top. I think he's the plan has to be just go to the front and and and see what happens. So he would be the speed horse I'd be respecting the most in here.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I definitely agree with you on ah unauthorized. If I had to put like a top pick regardless of price, especially it would be the three.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: The question is, you know do I want to take ah a short price? on a horse that i i don't know that he's that much better than the others but he might be
jackson muniz: Sure.
Eric Rubin: um so i kind of agree with you i'm just again um um my first two ways i don't have strong opinions here I'll get some opinions. They might not be good ones, but there'll be strong opinions coming up next. One other horse I want to think about or talk about was ah the one, Rule 62.
Eric Rubin: Usually I don't love layhor layoff horses, but Dutro is... Pretty good with layoff faet horses. It's a small sample size, but... for what it's worth in Plus 180 days off in claiming races. He's two for six with.
Eric Rubin: I didn't write the ah ROI down and I usually do. I want to say it's a positive ah ROI, but I could be wrong. I can probably look that up while you're talking in a moment.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: um I'm thinking maybe you know something went wrong last time and or he didn't like the the wet tracks. on the last two races. And if you get rid of the wet track races, he's as good as anyone in this field, if not better racing, it's better.
Eric Rubin: So. ah They also protect him off the... ah off the layoff here with the waiver claim. I kind of think the one has a decent shot here. And if there is a pace and he can sit a little off of it. I mean, Norell Post maybe he wants to go a little, but I have a feeling with Junior Alvarado, not the most aggressive guy early. They don't kind of sit back, save ground, and hopefully the round's good. and you know maybe swings out at the right time and and can run these down. ah your Your thoughts on the one rule 62?
jackson muniz: Yeah, we're on the same page again. I was between the the one and the three in here and I'm really curious to see what kind of prize he's gonna be because I think you can kind of play it both ways with a source when you pick a apart his forms okay he didn't like the the mud his last two races His first two races. They were strong. They also came out colonial. I don't know how good. you I don't know if necessary or when to trust. those speed figures and then The speed figures and the rest of that Kena and Aqueduct were good.
jackson muniz: especially compared to this field. The problem is he got trounced in both those races when he actually ran. in the in the in those spots so i don't know if i want to bet him if he's going to be third choice seven two four to one range if he's eight to one i think he's clearly the play. um i agree with the stats and everything you mentioned i i really wanted to get creative in this room found it difficult to find some super interesting long shot with like some hidden form a lot of them are just kind of
jackson muniz: probably too slow to win this unless all the favorites just don't show up which
Eric Rubin: yeah
jackson muniz: i guess it's possible but i don't know if i want to be gambling on that. So I'd be three or one here. depending on the price of of the one horse.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I put the one in 521 on my morning line. I don't know. We'll see. how close that is. But, uh, yes.
jackson muniz: m
Eric Rubin: a third choice, I don't want to say distant third choice, but to me, a third choice. And I couldn't even tell you who the fourth choice was in this race.
jackson muniz: okay
Eric Rubin: to yes It might be.
jackson muniz: No clue.
Eric Rubin: yeah I put the two Mike's Magic and the six Supreme Good. And about eight to one, I think they're the next ones, but I'm not even sure about that. And I'd actually have a little interest in Mike's magic to, uh, our boy, Joel Rosario that we were just talking about.
jackson muniz: that
Eric Rubin: ah Yes, he's stepping up in class from 20 ,000, not only the two. Yes, he's one for 15, but a lot of that 115 was against better horses. And he was claimed last time by one of the Cantramasses, Merckin, there's a bunch of them. So including one of them who hangs out, who's not a trainer, but he hangs out.
Eric Rubin: uh the uh a place where I go to bed horses with some friends. And he's he's often there.
jackson muniz: yes
Eric Rubin: I won't say on the air where he does this. A lot of alls.
jackson muniz: ah
Eric Rubin: A lot of alls in the pick five singling the Ken Ramazzi voices.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: You can bet if he wins, he's going to hit the pick five. Just hope he doesn't spend too much. But Mike's magic. I don't think it's impossible. More than not impossible. I think he has a shot here. If you take away the longer races, I think he's a little better going short.
Eric Rubin: Yeah. You have to make a lot of excuses. Two longer races, then a sloppy track, three back, the turf. And then slop again. So I don't know. And he ran okay in that slop race. So maybe the slop excuse on July 18th isn't good.
Eric Rubin: But he's had some races that are decent against these. He did chase. In a race last time that I won't say it fell apart But I thought the pace was pretty honest or pretty quick and I thought it favored closers that race He was three across for a bit
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Uh with the winner, uh, so the winner hold not held on a three to one But the other horse was a 12 to one shot who kind of faded to six So, you know, I thought he was up on an honest pace and I thought he ran a little better than it looks again Shortening up might help So the two is someone I want to use makes magic.
Eric Rubin: Is there anyone else that you want to mention in this race?
jackson muniz: Not really. I really wanted to make a case for rebalancing. But it's it's it's tough to claim away for Chad. He's like the one horse that's like. the He's run twice, so it theoretically has a little bit of upside. and with the speed he has he could kind of get close -ish and be in the mix it just That last race, like I said, was... was kind of slow on the buyer at least the time form actually had it much higher I think Timeform had it almost 12 points higher, so maybe that kind of gets him in the mix a little bit. but
jackson muniz: I don't know it's one of those races where I really don't want to talk Anyone else? price that they like in here because it does feel like the favorites are Not the most trustworthy, but... it does feel like some things would have to go their way.
jackson muniz: of It feels like some horses would not have to shell out for these. other horses to kind of get the mix.
Eric Rubin: Right. And rebalancing is a 10 horse. And maybe since you are a Southern Cal guy, Antonio Fresu, if that's how you say it, I don't really watch too much California racing.
jackson muniz: who
Eric Rubin: I'm usually like in bed by the time they're running. So I don't watch too much, but. Uh ha - For New Yorkers, because I think he's riding here for the meet, if I'm not mistaken. You can correct me if you know.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: He is?
jackson muniz: yeah
Eric Rubin: Okay. So for New Yorkers who aren't familiar with him, how would you describe him as a rider? You don't have to like kill him if you don't like him or anything, but you know how would you describe him as far as style?
jackson muniz: okay
Eric Rubin: If that's too much, is he someone that you would... Not hesitate betting, someone you'd avoid.
jackson muniz: I would have no problem playing him, especially on the dirt. I think Turf, he's... he's fine. He's middle of the pack, but you know, the the turf calling in Southern California is not. great outside of one or two riders. But ah dirt, especially I would have. No issue.
jackson muniz: playing him and I'd be more curious to see how he does. come wintertime im on the synthetic, assuming he sticks around. because If i I'm not mistaken, he comes from... Italy, I want to say, and was writing on this.
jackson muniz: synthetic retracts down there. So I wonder if that's. played a part in him coming out here for for the fall.
Eric Rubin: Well, that's interesting. This actually came up in a a group chat that I had, and again, I'm... Sorry if I'm putting you on the spot. Are they going to card races on the synthetic, or is that after the when the when they start the winter meet and turf racing is done? Do you know?
jackson muniz: don't Quote me. I believe they're going to start. Harding. like maybe a race here and there. Like, mid -November. like late november and then
Eric Rubin: Okay.
jackson muniz: for the last two or three weeks and then it'll be all sapita um cut after the cigar mile but for the most part it's just going to be off the turf only as we're talking five or six races throughout the fall
Eric Rubin: And, but they are going to go off the turf onto the, uh, is it torpedo or I think it's torpedo. I'm not sure.
jackson muniz: To Peter, yeah, yeah.
Eric Rubin: So even like this weekend, if it rains, it's supposed to rain Sunday, for example, they would go to the Tapita. off the turf, you think?
jackson muniz: Correct. Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
jackson muniz: I would. I would assume it's gonna take a ton of rain for him to come off though just given the amount of money they spend on the new courses the drainage the infrastructure like it's it's supposed to be able to hold quite a bit of of rain just like
Eric Rubin: Yep.
jackson muniz: just how Churchill is now.
Eric Rubin: All right, awesome. Yeah, I was curious about that because... I didn't know if... it's going to be like, oh, new meet, we're just starting. We don't want to kill the chair, of course, right away. or But what you're saying gives me hope that they stay on the chair for the whole weekend. So it'll be great.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: And Saturday seems like it should be good.
jackson muniz: That's the idea. We'll we'll see.
Eric Rubin: That's true. So if you were playing a pick five here, it looks like Ray seven, the the one rule 62, assuming he's not too short and the three unauthorized, you try and get through those two most likely.
jackson muniz: assuming the seven's favorite i try to lock it up with with one three here
Eric Rubin: All right. Sounds good. And, uh, we'll go on to race eight where I have a little bit of an opinion. It might be wrong, but finally I can add a little bit and race eight is a one mile. Dirt?
Eric Rubin: race. It's a one turn mile. Welcome back to Belmont. And goodbye, Wilton shoot. I won't say any expletives about it, but. the Walton shoot where anything can happen and just. Pick a number. Anyway, allowance, first level.
Eric Rubin: Here we go chief wallaby the one horse dropping out of stakes races. And... I've been betting against Chief Wallaby the last few races. Not that I necessarily made money betting against him, but at least I was right betting against him.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: uh What are your thoughts? I think our audience, if they well, I don't know how much of our audience is loyal listeners. Thank you if you are. But if they heard me talk recently about Chief Wallaby, we had David Aragon on.
Eric Rubin: He was mentioning something I think about ah Chief Wallaby as well.
jackson muniz: oh yeah
Eric Rubin: how Or maybe I just courted him. Sorry if I... said maybe He said this on our air. But I know I'm not as big a fan. I was a fan early in the year. So what are your thoughts on Chief Wallaby here? And also... Another question.
Eric Rubin: What do you think his morning line will be? what do you Any idea? Or what do you think will go off any ideas? Definitely the favorite over Freddie B?
jackson muniz: That for the favorite, I think it's gotta be. I mean, it's Bill Mott. It's a derby trail horse. It's got to be three to two, i would I would guess.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
jackson muniz: He's got to be pretty low. um As far as what I think about him in mind, I actually covered this race And in my notes from last time, I have two turns bad, Belmont mile good.
jackson muniz: And here he is going the one mile at Belmont. um I don't know I feel like it's almost too obvious. like He is the most obvious cutback horse in the history of racing. The entire world knows it. He's going to be over bed off of... his most recent races.
jackson muniz: And I just don't know how good it's written. form actually. is Because while I don't think he's that two -turn horse, by any means. He was running much faster two -turn races earlier in the year.
jackson muniz: And his form compared, his recent form compared to the races early in the year is not nearly as good. And I feel like he's going to get that based on those fast numbers he ran in the spring. So with him having the rail, with... I just think it's going to be way over batting here. And I'm not going to be surprised at all if he wins. but i I'd be tossing completely in this spot as well.
jackson muniz: Um, Are you on the? Same page there as far as the favorite, are you?
Eric Rubin: Absolutely. and And we talked a lot with our audience here about I mean, you can be wrong like five times trying to beat a ah big favorite and the one time you're right you can make All that money back and a lot more. so If you have any concerns about Chief Wallaby, it's a time to play against him here at a short price. And, you know, if if you...
Eric Rubin: If you're really convinced that, like you said, the cutback's good and that's all you need is not tallying up, it's just a cutback. then by all means go bet him. It's just, you know, he's not for me and I definitely agree with you. And I think I'm a little more confident playing against him than than you. It sounds like you kind of respect.
Eric Rubin: The fact that maybe the one turn, but...
jackson muniz: I'm not using it at all. I respect him, but im I'm not using him.
Eric Rubin: Okay, well, that's good, yeah.
jackson muniz: um especially like we're talking about pick five sequence here like looking at the sequence as a whole
Eric Rubin: Okay, sorry, I didn't want to put words in your mouth.
jackson muniz: He's the clear. Obvious single I would think looking at these other races like he if you can get past him in this race It's gonna open so many doors for you um and as far as the other races go.
Eric Rubin: so So let's talk about what will be, that I assume, the second choice, Freddie B, the seven horse here, who I thought has run ah very well. In fact, his race two back was extremely impressive. It was a race on July 19th where he was coming off a long layoff. He raised dominated by speed up front. He was squeezed significantly, at roughly six lengths or so. He basically spotted the field because he got squeezed and he still caught up a lot of ground. against a nice field there.
Eric Rubin: He came back, and I kind of expected him to run really well next time, and he ran well. Are he? Dueled, if you will. or Yeah, I guess he dueled. Stimulated. He was a very nice horse.
Eric Rubin: who won the race, but... you know, a lot of times people see all the speeds held or whatever, but in that case, they were just two best words in the race. So I wouldn't just say the speeds held.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: um So what are your thoughts on Freddie B? I'm definitely... on board with writing me personally, as you can probably tell, but what what about you?
jackson muniz: Eric, I think I might be texting you Saturday morning to play this pick five together.
Eric Rubin: ah
jackson muniz: i'm um I'm on the seven as well. um For all the reasons you mentioned, the race two back was was great. I mean, anytime you can close. a little bit into the wilson shoot that's something you want to take note of and those are those are good horses you werere ran against with georgia magic and and iron dome and As you said last time, yeah, he got beat by the other speed, but... Stimulate is supposed to be a pretty nice horse for Bill Maher. No shame in finishing second to him. um He's lightly raced.
jackson muniz: He's supposed to continue to improve. if We know he's got a versatile running style. if you pace this well it can be up there if it's fast you can come from out of it
Eric Rubin: Hmm?
jackson muniz: It's got a good post. I view him as a horse to beat. I... Peace. Three to one. I think it's ah that's a play all day.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I put him at 5 -2 on my ah morning line. That's probably not too accurate. Anyway, ah there's one other horse that I kind of like in this spot. And if I am playing this pick 5, which I probably will, I'm going to try and get through it with two horses.
Eric Rubin: Freddie B will be one of them. and And it's weird because usually when you're betting against a heavy favorite, I don't mind spreading a lot. Just if I'm trying to be an even money shot or something like that, just... Unless it's someone I love, just...
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Spread as much as I have to to beat that horse. unless
jackson muniz: Sure.
Eric Rubin: Unless you have like three or four races in the sequence like that, you can't do it. But in general, ah in this case, i'm I'm on board with the three enforced agenda.
jackson muniz: right course
Eric Rubin: for george weaver and i mentioned sammy marin again so i hope he has a big day there's a horse who last year is a two -year -old i really liked his i won't go through everything here but he had uh i upgraded all of his uh or his two raises made him special eight that he won he broke in he broke out he had some trouble on the back stretch i thought he ran really well and then he goes into the drone where he uh broke slow again so that could be a concern and uh was held up on the turn and got shuffled back so
Eric Rubin: He comes off the layoff, and the good news is he broke fine. So to me, he showed that he can break, so I'm not that worried about him breaking now. So that's a big... plus He did have a good trip, so I can see how someone would go, hey, he had a really good trip. And... yeah He wasn't even that close to Freddie B.
Eric Rubin: But it was off the layoff. And I know people might think we have a really good awful layoff, but... with a small sample size uh what did i do here i didn't write down the actual stat i wrote the stats but i didn't write what i looked up because usually i just know what i looked up but it was probably plus 180 days
Eric Rubin: in a dirt route allowance, something like that. Weaver was 0 for 3 first off the layoff, second off the layoff, 2 for 4. So his horses seemed to improve second off the layoff on dirt at least. And I think he might have just needed that race. it was I said it was, again, Stimulate and Freddie B. And Stimulate would...
Eric Rubin: I'd probably be the favorite over Chief Wallaby in here, I think.
jackson muniz: Yeah i think
Eric Rubin: And if he wasn't, I think he's better than Chief Wallaby at this point. And and Freddie B who was obviously, you know to me, the top horse in this race at this point in their career. So ah to me, I like Enforced Agenda, especially because I think you're going to get about 10 -1, maybe 8 -1 on the short side, and I'm very happy with that.
Eric Rubin: so and I'll talk about betting the race after Jackson jumps in, but you know as far as the pick five go, I'm just going 3 -7 here and hoping to get through it. And I think I have a decent shot, but we'll see.
Eric Rubin: So your thoughts either on the force.
jackson muniz: yeah i like it.
Eric Rubin: Oh, God, I'm sorry.
jackson muniz: No i i wasn't a huge fan of it but i do understand the reasonings you mentioned. As you said, he's going to be... 10 -1, 12 -1, 15 -1 in a race where you don't wipe a favor. Yeah, you have to include this horse who's wiped the race. And I do think he's got the right.
jackson muniz: running style for for this thing. because there's I hope he's going to be in front. And then after that, I don't. really know what this pace is going to look like and you have a lot of horses that can before but don't have to be forward.
jackson muniz: necessarily and i do think he's gonna be one that's gonna be up in the mix within a couple lengths of of this field.
Eric Rubin: Mm.
jackson muniz: I do want to ask you about Pandagate because I don't know what the heck you're supposed to do with him. once in two years, but he's handsome. really big races, doesn't he? As a younger horseman, his best race was...
jackson muniz: We'll just go on the one mile. i think That was really, I had no clue what to do with them.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, i'm I'm not gonna use him. Well, let me no i'm not gonna use i'm just looking at what i wrote down here i mean possibly um I was going to talk at the end about betting the race. Possibly I can throw him in some triples with the three and seven.
Eric Rubin: And if I bet supers also.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: But for the most part, I'm going to go against him. No horse off that long. I'm not saying he can't win. And like I said, if you're betting against Chief Wallaby, I'm okay going with Pandagate. I didn't see any workouts for him.
Eric Rubin: And I think in Belmont, they weren't filming them. And Clement, again, he's fairly new to training here. So I don't know if it's fair to... look at his sample size here but you know dirt routes routes going uh off a 180 plus day layoff.
Eric Rubin: He's one for 11, which again, it's most, he wins this and he's up to, what is that two for 12, 17 % just about. and So he's all of a sudden.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Okay. So I don't go crazy over the stats, but you know, horse like that. I'll, I'll let beat me. But the only thing is, again, if you're trying to beat. Chief Wallaby, I'm okay just throwing him in, especially... What I think will be about 8 to 1, but I'm not sure. maybe It's a little shorter. As far as the pace goes, um You mentioned golfie being the speed I mean, maybe they try and hold them back because they're trying to get the distance, but the foreign vision, you have an aggressive rider with Santana and a horse who showed a lot of speed last time, granted at a Horseshoe, Indiana.
Eric Rubin: But I can see that horse being either on or or pressing Golfie for the lead. and the The two and four, the two speeds here that we're talking about, they have two of the more aggressive jockeys with Karmush and Santana. So, you know, if one of them had an unaggressive jockey, I could see one of them taking back, but we rarely get speed duels in New York, but there is a possibility that golfing and and envision.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: The four can go at it. But again, it's New York, so that probably won't happen.
jackson muniz: okay You never know. You never know. Um, Yeah, deal. The only other horse I'll give a shout to is the far outside of 10. Meg. Magnum. And I'm not going to try to how to say it. Max, we'll call Max. The 10 horse for for Linda Rice. I don't know what happened last time. He was. all Obviously, he was...
jackson muniz: dreadful um he was wide against go to rail that day, but he was so bad i don't think that mattered at all um but the race two back was was really good that was another day where there's a a big inside bias. and I know he broke from the two posts, but he was never on the best part of the racetrack. He was always two or three wide the whole time, and he beat that field pretty. pretty handily that day.
jackson muniz: number came back strong enough and he's another one that's Probably going to be. close -ish to this pace. I don't think he's gonna be in the top three or so, but I don't think he's gonna be. where pandagate is early either so i would use him a little bit, especially if you're playing something like the pick five. because I think off that last race is going to be. up Fair price in here.
jackson muniz: you know You're just trying to be this favorite in here if you don't like the quality.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and ah magnanimous, I believe it is. it's ah like right but Benevolent, kind, helpful.
jackson muniz: Magnanimous. Okay.
Eric Rubin: see The New York education beats the California education, I guess, um even though I butchered the name before.
jackson muniz: Yeah. Heh heh. I should probably know, but. Yeah.
Eric Rubin: um In general, handicapping, what do you do with a horse like that who, you know, look pretty good and then has a stinker that you really don't. I see an excuse for it.
Eric Rubin: I know he got bumped at the start, but to me, that wasn't any major excuse, unless he got like the wind knocked out of him or something that we don't know. But what do you do in general with that?
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Is it just price dependent? And if the price is right, you'll go with it? Or do you are you willing to forgive it? um How would you approach any horse like that?
jackson muniz: Yeah. it's almost always going to be price dependent. If he was going to be the second choice, here you'd want no part of him. off of that most recent race it was it was absolutely awful but if he's going to be the fifth or sixth choice and you look at his races two back he'll just race three back like i know there's a good horse in there somewhere At least if he's going to be 6 -7 -8 -1, I'm going to get...
jackson muniz: paid to find out. If that horse is is still around. So that's the usually the way I approach it. And I deal with it. ideal world you find that excuse obviously why did he run so poorly i don't know why he ran so far the last time but at least there's no scary linda dropped to worry about he's still protected and he's in you know he's here on opening day. They knew this these fields are going to come up stronger than than usual. So I do think that's a ah decent sign too.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and as far as betting the race, you know for me, it's weird. I don't usually do this kind of bet too often. But I really, well, I'm going to bet win on the ah three and force agenda, assuming he's at least eight to one, which I think he will be at least add and probably a little more.
Eric Rubin: And...
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: I'm probably going to do an exact a box with the three enforced agenda. and the seventh freddie v who i know is going to be a little short but And I'm not usually, especially in a big field like a tourist, because you almost have to be perfect, right? to get Or you have to be perfect to get it right. So I usually don't like races or bets that I have to be perfect on because...
Eric Rubin: I'm not perfect and it's hard. And I like to make bets that I have a better chance of hitting for a big price. But I i think I'm going to do that here. And then I would bet exact ah triples and supers where I'd bet.
Eric Rubin: three, seven, and two, for example, golfie shortening up three, seven, and maybe five, three, seven. And, uh, four maybe, and kind of do a few boxes like that where I need the three and the seven together with them. And I can even see if I'm going against Chief Wallaby. Keying the three so going three with
Eric Rubin: like two four seven maybe throwing the five or nine or ten so i know i'm saying a lot of words but uh everyone can pick their own horses here but the point is uh that that's two ways i might approach this race more of a direct three seven and then i might just key the three and spread trying to beat chief well be where i need the three and force agenda and the money preferably in the top two for the exact of but in the top three for the try.
Eric Rubin: And if he's in there and chief Wallaby's out, I basically want to hit it. So I probably will spread a little like that.
jackson muniz: Right.
Eric Rubin: And then I'll just press with the three seven a lot more. Uh, so if I'm right about them, I'll, I'll collect a decent amount despite the shorter price in the seven.
jackson muniz: Yeah, I think that's the way you're supposed to approach it, right?
Eric Rubin: Any...
jackson muniz: You have your... Not only do you have your main opinion, but you also have a secondary opinion, which is. chucking cheap all day completely and that's that's even bigger than having the three in the mix i mean if you can get Although, if you can be right about both of those, like yeah, you want to make sure you're...
Eric Rubin: Right.
jackson muniz: you're right like you get paid when if you're correct about those things
Eric Rubin: Yeah, imagine it comes in like 3 -9 -10, and you know if you're out there, you like the 3 at 10 -1, 12 -1, and you didn't like Cheap Wallaby, and you don't have it because you only stuck the 7 with the 3. And again, everyone has a different budget, so not everyone can spread and do this and that. But so you have to. pick and choose but um that's something that i would definitely do if uh if i had the budget for it all right so i guess let's go was there anything else we're going to race nine
jackson muniz: If I was betting this race, my key would be the seven.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
jackson muniz: I'd have a nice... healthy win bet on this this seven horse. I like him quite a bit. and i would back them up with 10 over 7 and then i'd use your 3 over 7 too for a little bit
Eric Rubin: All right, and I don't disagree with you at all. i'm just I think the seven is better than the three, but I think the three is close enough that for the price, I'll take a swing there.
jackson muniz: sure
Eric Rubin: But I like the seven a lot here. I think he's a very good horse. All right, so let's go on to race nine. This is the Floral Park, which I know you're new to New York, but that's the town right next to Belmont. In fact...
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: If you go to high school at Floral Park Memorial High School for those Long Islanders, You can go to class and smell horse manure coming from the barns at Belmont. That's how close it is. So the Floral Park, it's $175 ,000 turf sprint. And finally, in New York. Well, actually, they had it at a Backward Duck, so I shouldn't say that, but getting out of Saratoga. We had six for a long sprint. I'm actually excited because I think it's Friday. There was a seven for a long sprint, something we haven't seen in...
Eric Rubin: forever in New York that's kind of unique to New York. I know there's some other tracks that might have it, but I really like those one -turn, seven -far -long sprints. But this is a six -far -long sprint, and I guess the... the
Eric Rubin: Two favorites will probably be the horses coming out in the grade one down at Kentucky Downs. Butcher the name of Love Servere. You can make fun of my education now. And the eight moving on up. So I'm assuming, I don't think they'll be heavy favorites, but I am assuming those will be the two short prices here. Although there is the nine to BD and the 10 Leslie's humor, I think I'll take money also. So I think those are the the four horses will take the most money. The one, eight, nine, 10. Out of those four horses, is there anyone that you really, assuming they're somewhat similar price, is there anyone out of those four or any? more than one of those four that you really like or any of those four that you really don't like to use in this spot.
jackson muniz: Um, I do like moving it on up to number. It's hard when the numbers are printed out.
Eric Rubin: Eat, it's okay.
jackson muniz: I think she's gay.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
jackson muniz: Eight, yeah. Move on up to eight. um You know, and I'll even throw in a horse you did mention that could be a favorite in here, too. I thought the 11.
Eric Rubin: Follow me.
jackson muniz: Um, Highway Harmony, at least looking at the buyer figures, and those are some fast races, and she lost to Shoot It Through last time, who's a good horse for...
Eric Rubin: Okay?
jackson muniz: for Wesley. to that point. It's one of those races, right, where you have four or five horses that probably legitimately could be favored, and it's just it's it's so tough and in this race. Nothing would shock me if this was...
jackson muniz: potentially the most wide open race of the entire weekend. um But I thought Move On and Up was interesting in here. I thought last time she just... she broke well and then she just got shut back and wasn't in a good spot. on The last edition I should say and then was trying to make a move of the fans in tight trying to get clear trying to get clear getting bumped around never really worked out for her that day and I do like when they wheel her back.
jackson muniz: so quickly off of that effort i think that's probably a pretty good sign and Maybe even more importantly, the race to back at Saratoga. Sappy was... dreadful for the first Six.
jackson muniz: seven, maybe even eight weeks of of the meet. i think this was I think that was his only winner. He was one for like 40 at one point.
Eric Rubin: o
jackson muniz: This was the only horse that ran well. for him for a long long time at that meet so he just horse overcame the the cold barn and I know she got a crazy setup that day, but she also... outkick Zylos. who came right back and and dominated a stakes race later on with me. So, he yeah, she outkicked a good horse in this in this race.
jackson muniz: I think there's plenty of pace in here to set up for her as long as she needs to come from a ah million lengths out of it if she doesn't. after she has enough speed to be mid pack ish so I'd be on her in here. i I have no idea where she's going to be.
jackson muniz: I was open for 4 -1, but who who knows.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I wrote seven to two, but I'm not sure it's the Luke Warren favorite. So we'll see what she goes off.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: It's funny because her and the one who, again, I shouldn't even try to pronounce the name. Love, sir. Do you know the name? Cause the steak source may be.
jackson muniz: I think it's...
Eric Rubin: heard
jackson muniz: Servier?
Eric Rubin: Severe?
jackson muniz: I don't know.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
jackson muniz: Thanks.
Eric Rubin: It's probably right.
jackson muniz: Thanks.
Eric Rubin: You know what? I do a lot of the handicapping in places where I'm probably not supposed to do it. So I have to keep the volume down so no one knows what I'm doing. So I don't know what the announcer said, but you're probably right. Love Surveyor sounds right.
Eric Rubin: And it's funny because, I don't know if funny is the right word, but the 1 and the 8. coming out of the same race at grade one at Kentucky Downs.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: They both had like almost identical trips where they were right behind each other on the rail and they both had to take up.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: In fact, I think it was Love Servier who took up and that caused. perhaps the eight moving on up to take up right behind her.
jackson muniz: yeah
Eric Rubin: and They both kind of, you know, for the most part, saved a little ground. And I thought the one left server might have had a little. Trouble in the stretch. The head -on is really tough to see at Kentucky Downs at that angle.
jackson muniz: And space pedagogy. Yes.
Eric Rubin: But yeah, like they finally get the head on. I'm like, oh, here's the head on. And they're all stopping riding. I'm like, wait, the race is over. There's a turn at the race's ends.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: It's really weird. But this is one of those races I mentioned earlier where i I don't love the favorites in this spot, but I don't like want to bet against them. So I'm not sure what I want to do. So I definitely am going to be betting race eight.
Eric Rubin: And definitely when I get to race 10, I'm going to be betting those. Those are my two. Kind of key races here. um I kind of like the 10. I know the class is a test here maybe a little bit for Leslie's humor, the 10 -horse Chad Brown, but...
Eric Rubin: this is a horse who came off a layoff last time and in a numbers of three, which is usually about as high as they go in allowance fields. and I thought... uh this Horse run really well to win that race, got held up on the turn and and really exploded late. um I was very impressed. Now, again, she didn't beat a field that's as good as this field.
Eric Rubin: And it was up the layoff and Chad has not put her in a stakes race until this spot where she's kind of, I don't want to say out of condition is not the right word, but she kind of moved up the ladder now. And there's the logical next spot. If you're not going to put her up for a claim, which I doubt they will. So I kind of like Leslie's humor. in this spot.
Eric Rubin: what are What are your thoughts on Leslie Humer? Is this too big of a step up, you think? Or is she okay here?
jackson muniz: She's fine. i yeah this heart It's hard to argue with what she's done in her last three stars. I mean, she's been Close to slow paces in one. She's been close -ish to fast paces in one. He got held up last time, as you said, and she's close from dead last and a bit effective, too.
jackson muniz: I guess the one question I had first. because she's been really good and wasn't in good form. like why did she not run during saratoga there were plenty of Thanks, Racers, for trying. there. didn't seem like she missed any time but maybe the She just needed some extra time off off the race, off the long layoff. I don't really know. It's not a huge knock against her at all.
jackson muniz: um yeah i think she's gonna be five to one i'm not gonna talk you off of her she makes plenty of sense in this race, as do a lot of other horses. this is a
Eric Rubin: E.
jackson muniz: That kind of race.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, definitely. That's a bomb. I want to mention one bomb so that if the horse wins, I can take a lot of credit. No, I'm kidding, but not totally.
jackson muniz: There you go.
Eric Rubin: Oh, no, that's the last race.
jackson muniz: No, you have to.
Eric Rubin: I'm sorry. That's the next race.
jackson muniz: okay
Eric Rubin: i jumped I was so excited about it, I jumped the gun here. So forget about what I just said. although Uh, yeah, a little bit, but now I'm not going to say, um, there's a five horse.
Eric Rubin: fla It's not what I was thinking of. It's the last race I was thinking of, but I highlighted Flamingo way, the five.
jackson muniz: okay
Eric Rubin: So when I saw the highlight, I'm like, Ooh, maybe this was a horse I was thinking of. I think it's going to be a big price Flamingo way who. Listen, maybe the horse isn't good enough. Maybe he doesn't...
Eric Rubin: I mean, I can't say it doesn't want to go the distance because on the dirt run pretty well, it's seven furlong, six and a half. So you can argue maybe the five was too short for this horse and the six furlongs will be better. I thought last race was pretty good. I'm not sure what she was running against, to be honest, at Penn National there. I know it was like there. I'm assuming that was their big night, but I don't even remember. You probably know better than me. But um she closed into a race that I thought had really no pace. I know 44 -1 looks fast, but there wasn't much movement into that race. And I don't think there was like a battle on the lead or anything like that. So, you know, in in this spot, as a long shot, to I think it's going to be about 20 -1. If she's not 20 -1, then I have not much interest. But I think Flamingo Way has an outside chance here. And if I was betting the race, I might try and get Flamingo Way into the money. but I don't
Eric Rubin: I totally dislike the favorites. what What are your thoughts on the nine? Because that's going to be a horse that's going to take a lot of money too to beat, especially. since her race two back at Kentucky Downs was against She's So Spicy, who came back to win the Breeders' Cup.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Turf sprint. So people. If they follow horse racing fairly closely, you're going to see that and be, wow, she ran against some monster there. Came back at Keeneland in October and didn't run great, but perhaps the mile is too far for her, and she definitely has run better in shorter races. In fact, seven furlongs or less, she's...
Eric Rubin: Four races, three wins, including a group three in Europe, and one third. So never had the money in a sprint. So what are your thoughts on Tabidi, the nine?
jackson muniz: She's fine. I hope she takes a lot of money in here.
Eric Rubin: Heh.
jackson muniz: um The Kentucky Redounds race, she didn't break great, and then she did kind of have to brush up into there. once she finally got clear she kind of just welled off and just ran okay. The issue is she's going out for Brad, and Brad Cox horses, they just take a lot of money. And just looking at her speed figures and what she did last year, like she's she's got to improve pretty substantially.
jackson muniz: to get into the next year if she was 15 to 1 sure but i think she's going to be closer five or six. So I'd be against her in this in this race.
Eric Rubin: Yep.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I put her 5 -1 here, so I think you're right. And that Group 3 win she had, I actually didn't love it. She had an easy lead in that race at Goodwood, and she was getting past the wire.
jackson muniz: and
Eric Rubin: So, I mean, she dead -heated, but another step, she would have lost the race. And another few steps, I think she comes in third or fourth.
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: So I'm not a huge Tabidi fan, so I'm with you. I hope she takes money off the layoff. Brad Cox is a small sample in turf sprints going off of a 180 -plus -day layoff.
Eric Rubin: in ungraded stakes. I know this is very specific and maybe it's stupid, but... He's had three starters only with a second and two thirds. There's three for three in the money. And again, that might be meaningless. I'm not a big stat person. I'm kind of just saying it. So people have something to think about up there. ah The only other horse I definitely want to ask you about, actually two of them, because you brought up one. and um
Eric Rubin: Sorry, unless you already said about the 11, Highway Harmony, I think you just said she might take money. And the two, Lovely Emma, coming off a a pretty big buyer figure at Ellis. So if you don't mind, just maybe be real quick on Lovely Emma, the two, and the 11. Highway Harmony.
jackson muniz: Yeah, that's it. The two, at least worth noting, she is cross -centered at Pascal Downs on... friday i believe so check out where she runs
Eric Rubin: Well, thank you.
jackson muniz: um look she's another one that has some speed figures that put her in the mix. I thought last time she got - Pretty good trip at Dallas. Simply third best in there, but she's got a good inside post she has tactical speed that you like to see where she's going to save a lot of ground and be somewhat in the mix. so She could trip out in here. She feels like one that won't take a whole lot of money either. So if she's eight to one, I think that's actually pretty good.
jackson muniz: Price on her even but I'm not a huge fan As far as Highway Harmony goes. that she's the one i kind of thought would be at least maybe deserve to be favored just because outside
Eric Rubin: Oh wow.
jackson muniz: quiet confidence i don't see Like for a turf sprint, I don't see it. abundance of speedballs. in this race and she kind of proved last time that she didn't need the lead to run effectively and I know she did two back in most of her career, but um that race two back was obviously really fast going the six fair long distance on a firm turf course. and Then she came back against Shoot It True. and on on good turf.
jackson muniz: was up on the page. Yes, she got outkicked by Shooter 3, but Shooter 3 might be. Might have finally figured things out finally after she was... Her own worst enemy for a long long time um I just think even with his outside post, he might draft into it. Really good stocking trip.
jackson muniz: in this race so If she's favorite, I don't really want her, but if she's... you know third fourth choice and yeah i think i'd have to take an extra long long look at her
Eric Rubin: All right, I don't want to belabor the race, but the three capturing is another horse I'm going to have on my pick five ticket. This is a horse who improved last race in July, finished very well. Just visually, I thought it was an impressive finish to close, again, against second -level allowance horses, so this is a little tougher.
Eric Rubin: ah field here. But... Perhaps that horse is going in the right direction as a four -year -old and only improving. And I'm going to spread here in the pick five. So definitely going to have the three on my ticket.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Definitely going to have the five on my ticket. and go from there uh any any other thoughts are we killed that race we're good
jackson muniz: Yeah, if you want to talk about bats real quick, I would probably just wind up moving on up.
Eric Rubin: Sure.
jackson muniz: um and i agree with you if it's a If it's a pick five, it's probably pretty spready. I'd use the eight. I'd use the 11. I'd use the 12, who do you want to talk about? it just it's It's that kind of race.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and and I definitely would use the 12 who hopped at the start ah last time and lost about three lines in a race at Monmouth that was kind of... controlled on the front end with not much pace. So I definitely want to use the 12 sweet brown sugar as well.
Eric Rubin: All right. So let's go on to the finale here. I kept you a long time. Sorry. So we'll try and do it quickly.
jackson muniz: It's good.
Eric Rubin: But ah Race 10 is a maiden state -bred $50 ,000 claimer. going a mile and an eighth on the inner turf. So...
Eric Rubin: In this race... You have two horses who if you can pick which one is favored and you get it right, I will give you a prize because I.
jackson muniz: yeah
Eric Rubin: I have no clue between the two emotionally available and the four big frosty. I put Maybe I'm wrong. I put the two. as a slight favorite over the four, but I can see it going the other way just as easily. Do you see it the same way? And and if you can just give your thoughts on both horses here.
jackson muniz: I agree. I think the two is going to be a favored. the the The problem with this racing version. serious lack of speed. i mean you have two horses that can be forward and no one else has even shown it interest in being in the. part flight at all.
jackson muniz: um And the two is one of them for Brad Cox. He has the inside post with this quick run into the turn. I would expect him to take some money in here. Especially with the Clash Royale as well. I will say I did not love his most recent race i know he's kind of a part of a fast -ish pace but That was a 50 -1 shot that was that that he was...
jackson muniz: tracking and the 50 to one shot beat him.
Eric Rubin: Exactly.
jackson muniz: um that's not usually a great sign but i'll fully admit this is a much softer field these stuff happens.
Eric Rubin: Hmm.
jackson muniz: kind of go his way up front maybe even if he's not at first he'll be sitting a good trip in second or third on a moderate pace. As far as Dick Frosty goes. yeah He's fine. it It's always tough to know what to do with those speed figures against Yeah, obviously he's throwing it.
jackson muniz: Much tougher race against snakes. foes on my grass but sometimes in these grass races these courses kind of get dragged in the race they run much faster than their I don't want to say technically capable, of but it just looks better than their true ability. their tri ability maybe And I wasn't in love with that race two back.
jackson muniz: And like I said, he's a horse that has. no speed whatsoever. He's going to be up against it in here. that The horse I actually kind of want to single is bourbon centric for Thomas Morley.
Eric Rubin: Oh wow.
jackson muniz: The two races where he's actually been written aggressively and been forward, I thought were... were both good i know he finished sixth on debut but thats really fast -paced that kind of just It. incinerated he was up there a long long time it was his debut i thought he ran well that day um two back rates wasn't great but last time i know he was gonna he got a pocket trip the best spot for a long, long time. but Then the winner got a big jump on him. He had to hold up, had to hold up, and was getting to the eventual winner.
jackson muniz: late and as i said with the lack of speed in here i just think this horse is going to get a a really good trip and um i kind of with you that Um, I don't know where I was going with that.
jackson muniz: but there's There's just no speed. like He's going to get a good trip, and I think he's going to be the third choice.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
jackson muniz: That's where I was going. He's going to be the third choice.
Eric Rubin: There you go.
jackson muniz: of the three main competitors in this race and i i prefer him to the other two so i'll just Take my shot and see what happens.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I put very verbatim centric on my line of 41 here third choice as you said I think it checked late on that first turn last race I mean overall had a really good trip, but did get checked a little bit
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: uh improved with the blinkers so maybe that was something now with the blinkers is a better horse or just an improving horse so i'm definitely not against bourbon centric there's a horse here where i like who i'm going to uh take a swing with here who i think will be a little bit of a pricer Better be or else I won't be betting them, but that's the nine. Beau Cheval.
Eric Rubin: I have about eight to one on my morning line. I hope I'm right. And. I think Bo Chaval improved a lot last time, sneakily, that you don't see here. So he gets claimed three back in June by Joe Sharp, who obviously improves horses a lot.
Eric Rubin: And he runs them back at the same level, made in 50, New York bred. In ran fine in that race. He was tight, shuffled late on the... ah On the turn, on the first turn,
Eric Rubin: Uh, what else? I can't, I remember wrote too much stuff. I can't even read, but had, had some excuse there. I'm not even gonna try and read it cause it'll take forever. Uh, so had a little bit of excuse there and then comes back last race. And what I love to see is, you know, one advantage.
Eric Rubin: When you're betting horses, especially with CAWs, and Nyra does a good job of... of getting them out of the polls as much as possible, uh, compared to other tracks. But, you know, yeah even just not CAWs playing against other people, you know, if you can find an advantage to my, everyone can read the program and see it.
Eric Rubin: So watching replays can provide you with an advantage and used to be a much bigger advantage because people didn't. watch replays very much.
jackson muniz: Sure.
Eric Rubin: And now so many people watch or they hear from people who watch on shows such as this, for example. But there was no mention in the... running line there. of Bocheval having any trouble. And he just had nowhere to go for almost the whole stretch. I mean, I think he had a chance to win that race if you're...
Eric Rubin: Not familiar with this race. You know, you might want to go back. Not you, Jackson, but I'm just saying in general. You might want to go back and watch Boshavov's last race.
jackson muniz: Yeah yeah yeah.
Eric Rubin: I'm not telling you what to do. You know more than me. But, um yeah, he just lacked very much of the stretch. I thought he improved a lot. Second for Sharp. I think he's going in the right direction for Sharp. I think he's going to be a bigger price than the three favorites.
Eric Rubin: So this is a horse I want to take a swing with at 8 -1 or anywhere near there. Even 6 -1 I'd be okay with. But Beau Chabon, definitely going to bet win. and I'm going to key the 9 in my bets here. Unfortunately, I'm going to have some chalk with him.
Eric Rubin: uh i'm not a big i agree with you a lot in the favorite space i pretty much agree exactly like the four would be the one i would kind of tend to lean against and you know definitely into the two and i agree i didn't love the two because he chased that long shot and just never went by that long shot uh so and now stretching out even further i don't know unless he's low in speed
jackson muniz: m
Eric Rubin: And I agree with what you said, vermin -centric, so I won't repeat that as well. so i'm pretty much on the same page. And unfortunately, I'm going to use some of those chalks with the nine, but that's what I'm doing here, keying the nine. And I'm going to have one bomb who I'm going to key a little bit too. So like my main bet will be... Maybe.
Eric Rubin: I don't spend a fortune, but like, you know, $2 exact $3, whatever it is, $4, nine with like the two and the seven. I might throw in the four a little because I, I know it sounds terrible, but four is still decent, but I might get rid of the four. I'm not sure. um But one horse I want to include is the sixth horse, Zip for Rick. This is the bomb, what I think will be about 30 to 1, and maybe he has no shot. But what I'll do also is I'll key the sixth with those other horses also, maybe for like a buck less, because I don't expect the sixth to win. But at 30 to 1, I want to include this horse.
Eric Rubin: And the reason I like the horse is... I mean, chew back. ran against me in special eight. i I didn't even watch the replay. I'll be honest. It doesn't matter. It wasn't in the race. Maybe I had some trouble at in the beginning and stuff like that, but yeah, it was just way too tough race. So drops.
Eric Rubin: Into this level last time first time at this level uh on the turf going along here was 44 to 1 dismiss and you know it looks like ran terrible but it had he had an awful trip there uh was bumped back badly at the start The rider, unfortunately, it's the same rider, but the rider, sorry, Kenny.
Eric Rubin: I have a friend, Kenny, who loves Omar. So he's going to be mad that I said that.
jackson muniz: ten
Eric Rubin: But anyway, he rushed him up a lot, like three wide around the first turn, went three wide, maybe like four or five wide around the second turn, and then eventually faded. So I just think this horse gets like a clean trip.
Eric Rubin: I think, and I think this horse might have a little speed because the man saw it really rushed up. So I think this horse can be closer than people might think. and Again, zip for Rick, the six, maybe no shot here, but at 30 to one or or even higher, i'm I'm taking a swing with this horse as well. So anyway, sorry I spoke so long, but I'm on the nine as my key horse and the six is kind of my, you know, little extra.
Eric Rubin: throw something on horse ah to use also in this race. So.
jackson muniz: Would you use that would you use a six in like a pick five? or Which is more like a vertical.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, unless Unless I'm singling the nine, yeah.
jackson muniz: way.
Eric Rubin: um I'd probably to finish off the pick five.
jackson muniz: Yeah
Eric Rubin: I'm almost Again, it depends on the other legs. But I would really like to use the 2, the 9, and the 6. And if I can throw in the 7 also. But those are the ones. And I'd probably leave out the 4.
Eric Rubin: But it really depends. You know, unfortunately I was short for time and I was just finishing this up before we went on the air. So I didn't really have time to think about my pick five too much. I don't know that I necessarily have a single in this pick five going back. Definitely not race six.
Eric Rubin: um race seven i i i kind of wanted to spread a little bit and try and beat some favorites. You know, race eight, I was only going to go too deep with that three and seven, if you remember. And that was, uh, Freddie B.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: you know, race nine, I want to spread. So I was thinking I might have to single the nine in the last race here. So in that case, I wouldn't add the six. But yeah, i would if I'm using a few horses, I'll definitely add the six. It's worth it to me.
jackson muniz: i love the If you sing on that, I love it. I mean, that's the ultimate separator. mean And then again, to get back to the whole looking at this sequence as a whole. thing. Um... This feels like the other race where people can get pretty skinny with.
jackson muniz: the two four seven kind of like it the obvious horses and you have a single horse that
Eric Rubin: Right.
jackson muniz: isn't even one of those three. That's that's that's huge.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, hopefully I'm right. That's the only problem. Probably won't be.
jackson muniz: Well, yeah, but you you make tickets like that enough times. The times that you are right is you're going to get to.
Eric Rubin: Exactly.
jackson muniz: The ridiculous overlay. payouts, and that's that's that's what we're looking for.
Eric Rubin: Exactly. Yeah. And and that's what I was mentioning before. You can be wrong you know trying to be favorites like five, six, seven, eight times in a row and the one time you're going to make money. so um Any other final thoughts on Race 10 from you?
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: Because i I did a lot of talking there. Not you.
jackson muniz: No, i I think this would be like my big... single too i think I i would pitch this to Pat Bermancentric. single i'm everywhere Bye. I just don't want to let anything... at all much interest in embedding anyone else in Everest.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and if if The Hoards are somewhat short -priced, like the two and the four are going to be, and you don't really love them, then there's no point in in you know betting them for the most part, unless you have... You know, pick five where you have bombs in the other legs or something like that and trying to beat a lot of chalk.
jackson muniz: right
Eric Rubin: And, you know, sometimes it's a problem for me. And and I got a lot better with this recently where I'm i'm doing pretty well now. Where. Like I was trying to be too perfect. I'm like, Oh, I'm playing against this shot. I'm playing against that chalk. And then I'm like, you know what? I had a four to one single and and he hit and and I missed because I didn't play this seven, you know, two to one shot. Then I kind of, you know, it was like, all right with.
Eric Rubin: You can't just keep throwing in favor and say you don't love or anything like that, but you also don't have to be too perfect sometimes with these pick fives, which I know sounds terrible. but and like that advice, but it's It's true, I think.
jackson muniz: Right. No, I mean...
jackson muniz: I think I'm very much in the same boat, especially that's kind of been my challenge the last year or so. is I'm very much someone that tries to play things perfectly. And that's why I do well in the pick threes when it's a little easier, just less legs and you can really press them up.
jackson muniz: It's a lot harder to beat five trick favorites than to pick five, obviously.
Eric Rubin: right
jackson muniz: and you get too cute and it's like okay well That was my fifth strongest opinion of the whole sequence. how they could have used the horse aid. wasn't entirely against and it caused me a lot of money so oh always trying to learn from The expensive mistakes that you that you make but yeah, that's the way you're gonna get better at it so
Eric Rubin: Yeah, absolutely. And in the sequence, like if if you're playing against Chief Wallaby. And that's going to get you a lot of, I don't know, equity is the right word, but but a lot of room in the other legs to be a little imperfect, if you will.
jackson muniz: Mm hmm.
Eric Rubin: And, you know, use a few more horses than you would. And, you know, maybe maybe I use like that too in the last leg, the Cox horse, because, well, I think the horse is. you know decent enough i don't love him and at that price i wouldn't bet him normally in a vertical bet but At the same time. And then pick five where he's going to come in and pay $2 ,000. Is it a horse I really want to toss? so If he's going to pay.
Eric Rubin: 150 then it's not worth it because even if I hit, you know, adding him and adding $40 to a ticket or something like that. You know, each time I'm adding $40 to a ticket on a favorite or short price I don't like, you know, the one or two times I hit where it pays 150, I'm going to lose a lot more money than that long -term. So it's not worth it, but. um anyway all right so it sounds like we're on the same page a lot it sounds like i'm on sammy marin's page a lot so sammy get some good sleep friday night please And I hope you have a ah nice Belmont meet for yourself.
Eric Rubin: Jackson, I can't thank you enough. Sorry I kept you so long, but I really appreciate your good support.
jackson muniz: Of course.
Eric Rubin: You definitely, based on what I've seen, you have a big future. and naira and in the game so i wish you continued success and uh Can't wait to see you on Fox Sports talking with the host there.
jackson muniz: and
Eric Rubin: I think it's coming soon.
jackson muniz: Appreciate it, man. Thanks for having me on. That was a lot of fun and looking looking forward to this week. and Looking forward to Forever Young. It's gonna be, its it was really, I got to see him this morning, which was... Really cool. um I did not realize he's made $31 million, dollars which is not bad.
Eric Rubin: Is that true? I didn't look. Holy cow.
jackson muniz: 31 million dollars and he's still working on around that in that total so he's
Eric Rubin: Wow. What?
jackson muniz: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, that's pretty impressive. well I hope everyone enjoys Belmont's opening weekend. If you're going out there, really enjoy it. I'm going to get there as soon as possible, possibly Sunday, but most likely I'll have to wait a few weeks. but Good luck if you're playing the races. We will see you next week. Ta -ta.
