Transcript
Eric Rubin: Hey, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the king of Timonium, Gary Quill, GQ. How be you?
G Q: Eric, I survived my daughter's wedding just fine. I now... Seek a ah pick five payoff. for the so that the, amounts to some of the ones that you hit over the summer so uh no in reality um Awesome, awesome wedding.
G Q: um Luckily enough, I saved over the years for it, so my bank account's no worse for wear.
Eric Rubin: Hmm.
G Q: um Since we now ah have moved into the 21st century and we have video. There's a picture of my darling daughter. That's not her husband. That's her dog. So...
G Q: Um, Bye.
Eric Rubin: Except I'm not recording the video this week. That was kind of accidental. last week So we haven't quite moved in.
G Q: That's all right. Everyone's missing out. gorgeous young lady. But I digress. um I would be remiss if I didn't thank Jackson. muniz for Bye. Sitting in for me, you did a great job with it, Eric, last week. I think you guys actually kind of
G Q: somewhat gave out the pick five. from my understanding but still good conversation good information uh thank you jackson for sitting in for me And I had a really good week. so Ready to get back to work, per se. and ah Let's talk about... the the new and improved belmont uh the thing that's interesting that I'll ask you right off the bat.
G Q: Do any horses who were old enough when the old Belmont was open Should there... turf or dirt records really be recorded or or put in because it's they're totally different surfaces correct What's your take on that?
Eric Rubin: I don't know I don't care.
G Q: Okay!
Eric Rubin: I don't give a crap. You want my honest answer? I don't. I'm not into records. I don't care. I just want to make money.
G Q: yeah you know Horses for courses, that kind of thing.
Eric Rubin: Sorry.
G Q: A lot of people. put Stark into that you know would it still be the same if
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: You know, Casa Creed was still running. and Since he could only run at New York tracks. That's...
Eric Rubin: We'll get into that.
G Q: That's my inside joke of...
Eric Rubin: That slander Slander against constant greed.
G Q: Eric loving Casa Creed, and I said he was in New York. But anyway. um that That's something I guess we'll just have to look out for. But no, other other than that, if you want to just get right into it, Saturday at Belmont. Sorry, the 26th.
G Q: The late pick five is races seven through 11. Is there anything you want to say before we just jump into it?
Eric Rubin: No, I guess we can. I was going to say something, but when it comes up, I'll say it. I ah i told you I'm kind of exhausted. It's been a long day. So we're recording. Not that late on Wednesday night, but fairly late. So I'm ah i'm going to get started here.
G Q: Yeah, and just a fair warning, when we're recording... All of the morning lines aren't out yet, other than the last three races, which are stakes races. And so we'll touch on that. But Eric and I enjoy trying to put together our own morning lines, compare ours.
G Q: And then compare it against David Aragon is to see. how close we are. so um we'll we'll throw in that that as part of the shtick so uh the first ah leg of the late pick five on saturday at belmont park is race seven it is a optional claim or non -winners one other than going a mile and a 16th on the dirt Field of 12 have signed on.
G Q: And Eric and I. Actually, we're in agreement with all of who should be the morning line. Favorites. We agreed that, number three, Nikon should be the morning line favorite. I said 2 -1. Eric said 7 -2.
G Q: So we'll meet in the middle and say about three to one. Is that fair?
Eric Rubin: ah Or you just go with Eric, who's going to be right. But whatever you like.
G Q: Well, if you like Nikon, and you would hope Eric is right, so you get 7 -2 on him.
Eric Rubin: her But that's good.
G Q: or On her.
Eric Rubin: Yes, I do that all the time. i just Being a jerk. ah Yeah, so I think three horses take the most money here. Probably the two Clemence. That would be the one. Hidden Rose, the 11.
Eric Rubin: who you didn't totally agree with me, but you came around a little bit. I don't even know how to say that name.
G Q: Yes.
Eric Rubin: Jador Laniha, something like that. I might have made her in Spanish and she might not be. And then Nikon, of course. So those are probably the three that take the most money. And I'm going to be honest here. I don't have a strong opinion in this race, which frustrates me because it's 12 horses and it looks like such a nice field to bet a race like this.
Eric Rubin: I will say it's a very weak. race for this level. If you're a buyer person and you're a DRF person, the average buyer for um this type of race, ah optional claimer, really allowance, first level allowance, optional claimer.
Eric Rubin: 88 and no one really comes too close to that. I guess nikon's 84 last time but she got that Not really being too close to the... uh leaders there so uh it's a really pretty weak race for the level which is why i think the 11 jador lahina i'm going to try that one more time Jadur Lineja.
Eric Rubin: how would you say that
G Q: yeah Jajur Lanesha.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I mean, as long as she's not too short -priced, I have her.
G Q: Or Lanaija. Jadur Lanaija.
Eric Rubin: I, I...
G Q: six flows better.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, either one is fine Sounds good. um
G Q: Hey, you know what would be better? if When we watch the replays that we actually listen.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: They love waste.
Eric Rubin: I mentioned this last week. Sometimes I watch them. when and where I'm not supposed to. So I got to keep the volume down. And please don't comment on where I might be watching them so I don't get in trouble. But ah anyway, so usually I'm not able to listen, but sometimes I am.
Eric Rubin: In fact, there was one race I was able to listen, and it's going to be a key, and I'll talk about that later. because
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: listening got me some information that if you didn't listen, you wouldn't get. So, ooh, stay tuned. But anyway, just because...
G Q: os It's a teaser in the podcast.
Eric Rubin: ah It is a big tease.
G Q: yeah yeah
Eric Rubin: So number 11, Jendor, whatever. I just such a weak feeling. So she's stepping up in class here. But I think she has a pretty good shot here. I just don't want too short a price. I have her about four to one. And if she's somewhere around there, I'm okay with it. But I don't have a strong opinion in this race. I think the other Clement, Hidden Rose, has a decent shot too. Two back at this level. I thought she ran really well. I thought that race slightly favored closers. She was pushing that pace.
Eric Rubin: She broke well. She kind of like stalked and went after an eight to one shot who faded to last. So I really thought she ran well too back in rows. And I don't remember the last race. But there's a good chance. I liked her last race except she was a short price So maybe I didn't because of the price but otherwise I would have liked her and she did is the one hitting road She didn't get bumped at the start um She got checked back a little bit on the first turn. She was two to three wide. So there was some excuses.
Eric Rubin: but I don't know if that's enough excuses to justify how poorly she ran, but I really think one of the two Clemence is going to win this. I just don't know if I want to go with a short price. In this race, and they're both about 72 -41. I'm not sure I want to do that, but I do think...
Eric Rubin: that they have good chances here to win this race. And I'll talk about like how I would bet and pick five in a moment, but, um, Any thoughts on the Clemenceau or any any other horses you want to mention here that ah struck your fancy or you don't like?
G Q: yeah i think the potential pace scenario is interesting as Um. There's only... there's There's not a lot of pace in the race. and It could be a jockey's race, meaning like...
G Q: Jose's on Hidden Rose who has shown some early speed in the past. Breaking from the rail might force his hand to try to go to the early lead because, again, Tua's outside.
G Q: Not until you... probably get out to the eight horse higher force. uh has there always speed and uh Probably will. You know, Christopher Elliott, your favorite jockey. um one Wants to...
G Q: be forwardly placed. um I'm not convinced that the 11 horse, based on that, let you know, gate the wire. It wasn't the fastest early pace there, so I'm not going to. Put that one in. The horse on the far outside, 20 to 1.
G Q: Jolly Jolene could be a pace factor. so there's i To me, there's like three horses who could go to the lead. Maybe one of them really. ah uh is hell -bent on getting out there and if You see somebody out there by two lengths going around the first turn.
G Q: Hey. it could turn into a gate to wire. So, uh, of those three I like... both Higher Force and Hidden Rogue.
Eric Rubin: All right, so higher force is the eight horse, right? in ah
G Q: Correct. at eight eight ah We're guessing 8 -1 morning line.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I think we both have that.
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: ah And just a note about the pace. According to time form, it's going to be a fast pace with the eight on the lead and then the 6 '11 right behind. so i time form is not always you know necessarily accurate but it's based on like past times and stuff so Um, and it's New York is often not a fast pace, but I think it could be an honest pace.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: It's hard to judge sometimes. um we We probably should talk about Nikon. I made ah a brief reference to her. But since she, if not the morning line favorite, will be you know definitely taking some money here. She's dropping out of a couple of grade ones. She was 31 and 41 in those races.
Eric Rubin: And yeah I mean, to me, she wasn't really involved. So I don't want to like hold it against her that she was against too tough, but she didn't do anything to really inspire my. confidence per se. And if you go back before that,
Eric Rubin: In the gazelle, three back, same thing. um i I think I watched that replay, actually, because I have a note here, but I didn't write much. um I just... I didn't find a huge excuse other than grade three. I mean, You know, you go back to the busher and she ran fine, I guess, but.
Eric Rubin: I don't know. Maybe she's taking a step forward. Maybe she's just a horse to be here because of the class relief. I'm not against Nikon, and that's why I don't want to bet this race, because I don't dislike horses here necessarily. They're going to take money. I just don't love them.
Eric Rubin: So if I'm going to pick five, I'm probably going to have to spread and it's not going to be very efficient in this race, but I'll make up for that later and I'll explain what I mean when we get there. You know, like if you single an eight to one or 10 to one, it's okay to use three or four chalks in a race and spread a little bit. And that's kind of what I'm doing here. So as far as Ben the race, I'm probably not going to bet. The only horses I wanted to mention real quick that we didn't say anything about the seven Raghava. I think that horse has a somewhat of a chance. I mean, it took a long time to break her maiden and she had to go to Finger Lakes.
Eric Rubin: uh but then ran at this level last time had a slight stumble at the start you know ultimately a decent trip but If I feel there's a weak feel for this level, I think she has a shot with Pratt. The only thing is, might get overbet with Pratt. but I think the Howard says a shot I would use in a pick five. And then.
Eric Rubin: Only if it's wet out would I use a 10 sale away. This one seems to really like it wet. Dry track, I'm not going to use most likely, but on the wet track, I would. so you know i'm I'm pretty spready here with a lot of the chalk, like 1, 3, 7, 11. I'd probably... um kibi 11 and uh as far as like the the main horse i like the most assuming the prices are similar
Eric Rubin: But that's where I'm at, and I'm probably not going to bet because, again, I kind of have a lot of chalk here, not heavy chalk. but I don't want to bet against the chalk, and I don't really love the chalk. I'll i'll have better opinions ah next few races.
G Q: okay Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Anything else you heard or you want to?
G Q: Good. No, let's rock and roll on the late two, which is race eight on Saturday at Belmont Park.
Eric Rubin: Okay. All right.
G Q: in Late pick five, it's six furlong. Steak bread allowance not winners one other than on the Inner. Turf. Field 10 going.
G Q: postword And Eric and I agree that... The six horse. Joker on fire should be the 3 -1 morning line favorite.
Eric Rubin: Yes. Was that the end of what you were saying?
G Q: Well, yeah, but...
Eric Rubin: Was that your transition to me?
G Q: you know that that was just my lead -in um
Eric Rubin: Ah.
G Q: Bye. Eh. I don't know what else to say um
Eric Rubin: Well, what do you think about Joker on fire?
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Why don't we start with that?
G Q: Well, I think Joker on fire. Bye -bye. Again, for those who don't know, I'm I am the antichrist when it comes to past performances. I go to the dark side and use BrizNet, and I swear by their turf numbers.
G Q: And... He has the the best Uh... speed figure on turf. uh both career -wise and at this distance.
G Q: So that's that's why I felt. He obviously was was the horse to beat. um Interesting, stormy the one, Stormy Birthday. ah is right behind with ah Just a few few points less. Gets Pratt.
G Q: ah Huge jack upgrade. So... um Definitely a player there at 9 -2. We had slightly a differing opinion. The three -horse light, fantastic.
G Q: Everybody else has never beaten winners. He's the only one. Thanks. Three wins out of six starts has has been able to beat winners. It's a, you know...
G Q: ah gate the wire type of performance uh but there is plenty of other speed or not plenty but Enough speed in here to keep him honest. so um Yeah, it's... it i i would I would get chalky. and and stay with the uh six sort of one.
Eric Rubin: and And the sixth joker on fire, just consistent horse. the only problem is hasn't really won at this level well obviously hasn't won but 0 for 4 at the level, generally right there. I think the stretch out. from five and a half to six won't hurt. i Thought she ran really well at six furlongs at Aqueduct back in May.
Eric Rubin: Consistent horse again if I'm using if I'm betting verticals i probably don't want to just leave the horse out totally But to me, I'm just really, I don't know, praying is the right word, but I'm really hoping that this race stays on the chart because there is some rain in the forecast.
Eric Rubin: Last I checked was about 70%. So there's a decent chance it comes off and they go to the synthetic. And if they do, I don't know what to do because. only one horse around on the synthetic and uh just quick glance the 10 horse didn't run all that well it looks like on the synthetic although i didn't watch a replay or anything and it was a while ago but If it stays on the chart, which I hope, this is to me a pretty easy single.
Eric Rubin: And my easy single, Your Morning Line is higher than mine. I have nine to two. I think you might have it six or eight to one. I meant the eight.
G Q: Who?
Eric Rubin: Wrighton, if I'm pronouncing the name right, the eight horse.
G Q: Oh yeah, I had five to one.
Eric Rubin: um i i Okay. So I have nine to two. So actually pretty similar. Yeah. To me, this horse is easy horse to single. First of all, you mentioned there is some. Should be some decent pace, and this horse does come a little up in pace, but... If she breaks well, then he breaks well. then I think he won't be too, too far back. But, you know, maybe he does... ah Close.
Eric Rubin: ah Last race I really liked. Slightly slow start. ah He was stopped cold on the back stretch at one point and shuffled back. and Ding, ding, ding. It does not say anything about that in the PP. So this is where you put in your homework.
Eric Rubin: and you can get paid for your homework. Doesn't mean because she yeah he had trouble last time he's going to win, but... At this level. Ran much, much, much better than it looks last time. and Again, totally stopped cold, and shuffled back. lacked room also the last 16th of a mile and the jockey jose ortiz kind of stopped riding him so it was just an awful trip i think the extra 16th of a mile going from five and a half or whatever that is. The extra half a furlong, is that? Yeah. So that will... ah Definitely help.
Eric Rubin: because I think six furlongs would be better than five and a half for this horse. And I mean, I'm all over this horse. Again, it's got to stay on the turf. and We'll see, but I'm singing the horse. Not that I hate the six or anything, consistent horse, but, you know, the one horse.
Eric Rubin: Ran a good race last time. It was tight at times. That's my birthday. Tight at times on the backstretch was three wide. You're getting them. Big jockey upgrade from Chris Elliott to Pratt on the one. I have no knocks on the one other than.
Eric Rubin: He's had so many chances at this level, but he seems to be better as a four -year -old. And um' I'm not against the one. I'm not against the six. I just think the eight is is the horse to beat here. and I'm going to single. the eight Light fantastic three with Brad Cox. Doesn't need the lead, it looks like. It's come off the pace. So you mentioned there might be other pace in here, like the two and the ten. So the three can sit a really good trip, and I am worried about the three. but I feel the three has gotten some good trips the last couple of races.
Eric Rubin: And we were talking about it coming out of an ah open company starter allowance, optional claimer. I feel like it's very similar to this level. so um I don't think the three is really stepping up in class a lot, nor I don't think he's dropping in class too much.
Eric Rubin: And um as a result, I think he's okay, the three. I actually prefer the one or six a little more than the three, but I'm just singling the eight here. I'll bet the eight to win. I can talk vertical after you say anything if you want, but um i I'm mostly win bets and and horizontals here, singling the three and everything I bet.
Eric Rubin: Uh, the 8, I mean. Sorry. Writing. in
G Q: yeah Not that I like the horse a lot, but I think it's worth mentioning the Five Horse Manor Park. ah we We know he's going to be either 15 -1, 21, most likely morning line.
G Q: Coming off of... Every single – all five starts have been – Going two turns. has has it been the the best finishing in its last ever since breaking its maiden. maybe really doesn't want to go long and Maybe this cutback in distance is... ah Good, even though this trainer, James Begg, is only 8 % going route to sprint. but you know it
G Q: Fate you know as we debated the starter 50 is kind of similar to this level so
Eric Rubin: No, it's not in this case though, because that was it.
G Q: not Not in this case. Okay.
Eric Rubin: That was a state. Well, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to jump down your throat.
G Q: No, that's all right.
Eric Rubin: But if you look. And I don't want to sound like I'm ah condescending, but that was a steep bread. starter allowance. So if it was like an open starter to a state bred allowance, I feel that's kind of even.
G Q: Right.
G Q: Oh, right, right, right.
Eric Rubin: But a state -bred starter is definitely weaker.
G Q: My bad.
Eric Rubin: So he's coming out of a weaker race. But if you get a fast pace, he's going to come from the clouds probably. I mean, he's stepping up and and I mean, I like Jamie bag. I like him and you know, Dylan's.
Eric Rubin: as good, you know, solid jockey, I guess.
G Q: Mm -hmm.
Eric Rubin: but um you know Not for me, but I wouldn't talk you off a horse at 20 to 1.
G Q: yeah but
Eric Rubin: or thereabouts.
G Q: All right. So, ah yeah.
Eric Rubin: So. Oh.
G Q: ive I have nothing else to say. Are there anybody else you want to talk about? or
Eric Rubin: Yeah, there's there's one other horse that I'm going to use with the eight. Again, i'm not gonna I would love to add the horse in a pick five too because he will be a price. but Most likely, I'm just going to single the eight and less.
Eric Rubin: Well, we'll talk later. There is one way I can bet like a second ticket or third ticket and and and add this horse. And that's a nine fireballing who comes out of the same race. Now, a lot of them are coming out of that same race. Maybe I should have mentioned that before.
Eric Rubin: It's the Illmatic race who I think Illmatic was like. three to five or something that race, but you got one stormy birthday coming out that race.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: You got the, um, four. Van Wallenhoven coming out of that race. You have the sixth joker on fire. You have the eight, the horse I like writing. You have the nine. Uh fireball and all coming out of that race and The nine horse had a bit of a tough trip there. Um, first of all, same ground, but check back significantly late on the backstretch and was tight in the stretch also. So definitely had some trouble in that race. Could have definitely won that race. So I think that horse, you know, the only thing is it was his first time on turf.
Eric Rubin: And you know, he ran better on the turf than he did in any of his dirt races. You know, was it kind of an aberration or can you repeat that? But the nine horse, right? You know, I think it'll be about eight to one, maybe a little less, but I think Katie keeps the price higher. So six to one, eight to one on the nine fireball. And that's the horse I want to use. And as far as vertically. betting this race, I'll probably team those two up, the eight and nine. So I'll do, for example, triples.
Eric Rubin: Adieu. Eight, nine with one. Eight, nine with six. 8 -9 with three. I hate to use the favorites, but I think they're solid. 8 -9 with four. I want to throw in Van Valenhoven in some of those with bets. for And that's probably it. Maybe the 7 and the 10 a little bit with them.
Eric Rubin: so I need both of them. and i And I would box those, its like 50 cent box doesn't cost much, right? 8, 9, 10, 8, 9, 7, 8, 9, 1, just 50 cent triple boxes, maybe a little more money. If your budget's a little higher, and my budget's a little higher with the horses that I like better.
Eric Rubin: And then. I would single the eight and put the eight on top with some of those horses and like triples and things like that. Usually when I'm at a race, you know If I don't dislike the favor or the second favor, I don't love betting it, but in this case...
Eric Rubin: I think Wrighton's probably like the third choice here, maybe fourth choice even. Could be the fifth choice even. Because I think the six will be the favorite. I think the three will be close and the one will be close. And the eight might be close with them, but I'm hoping the eight's a little higher, maybe four choice. So I will also just key the eight alone with some of those horses. So like, you know... ah
Eric Rubin: It could be a dollar, $2 exact box, eight with a bunch of horses or a few horses. And then triple, same thing where you know I probably box it a little bit if I have the budget for it, and then just put the eight on top mostly. So I need an 8 to win. I'll have maybe $1, $2, $3 triple instead of just $0 .50 if he comes in. second or third, something like that. Uh, and then in vertical, like in horizontal bets, I'll mostly just single the eight. You know, if I bet doubles or pick threes or something like that, I might add in the nine a little bit on some tickets, but for the most part, I'm just singling the eight.
Eric Rubin: All right, hopefully that makes sense.
G Q: thirty Yeah, it makes sense to me. a
Eric Rubin: Okay.
G Q: Sounds good. You're... you're ah Doing well with staying away from chalk Very good.
Eric Rubin: Well, yeah, it's not like I'm taking big prices over links
G Q: Beautiful. Yeah, but I mean be -
Eric Rubin: but But...
G Q: Halfway decent fields with third and fourth choices play big.
Eric Rubin: Yeah. The problem is like, I don't hate the chalk so far. You know, I love when there's a chalk I don't like. That race, they're fine. I don't love them, but they're all fine. But I just think they need us. better personally, and I think he's going to win, but... You know, the race before that, and that's when we have to rehash race seven, but you know, I don't.
Eric Rubin: Dislike, you know, Nykos is fine, I guess. I don't love her, but she's fine. She can win. You know, that one horse is okay. The 11 I like, but, you know, one of the chalks. Anyway, I don't hate the chalk, but I think singling, ah let's say that eight is nine to two or five to one, if if I'm right, and I'm hoping higher.
Eric Rubin: You know, singling that horse, I can go a little chalky in the first leg. And I have another single coming up later, so I might go two singles in this pick five, which... and And neither one's a favorite, you know, third or fourth choice. Um in that case I can go a little chalky and race seven and kind of add that chalk in my pick five
G Q: All right, so let's move on to the middle leg of Saturday's. Late pick five at Belmont. It would be race nine. It's a the seven furlongs, grade three Vosburgh stakes.
G Q: Field of 10 going postward. Eric and I agree that the three senior officers should be the morning line favorite. We... Don't agree what the odds should be. I went really.
G Q: cheap went 3 -2. Eric says 5 -2, so that means Aragona should make him about 2 -1 or 9 -5.
Eric Rubin: Well, we already have it. Didn't you write it down? I read them to you.
G Q: Oh, oh, I'm sorry. Five to two.
Eric Rubin: No, three to one three to one closer to me.
G Q: Three to one. Three to one. That's right. I'm sorry.
Eric Rubin: Yes
G Q: My bad.
Eric Rubin: Yes, you were drinking some of that Hennigan's.
G Q: No. Yeah, yeah.
Eric Rubin: when you were making your morning line, I guess, at the wedding.
G Q: It's... And... Yes, it's late. um So, yeah, senior officer. I mean, the reason why I went so cheap, it's like. he's He's gone off the favorite. He's never gone off more than... Nine to five, not ah eight to five, I think. Yeah.
G Q: So... Coming off of a... Grade one, I don't see. You talked me off of a horse that in seven races. Has it been out of the exact, ah and and who in here?
G Q: is You know, i I like Crazy Moon. Just because the horse shows up every day. race and has been running in great stakes forever. but Who all scares you in here?
G Q: Contrary thinking
Eric Rubin: I'm a little, ah this is going to be a spread race for me. For the most part, I'm going to beat Senior Officer here. Nothing against senior officer. I don't know. I mean, I thought this horse was just an up -and -coming horse. I didn't really see any excuse in the foregoing. I know he only lost by three quarters of a length, but there was like four or five horses on the line at the wire there within a length or two of each other or length of each other. and i Didn't think this horse had a major excuse that not had a decent enough trip.
Eric Rubin: I mean A little wide maybe, but...
G Q: His major excuse was his jockey. See, unlike you, I'm not gonna mention names.
Eric Rubin: Well, listen, it is an upgrade in jockey, although ah the jockey that was riding at the time was actually, you know. hot he had a bad start and then he started to win some races, but I don't know. I thought the trip was fine. I mean, you know, again, maybe you can argue a little wide, but I don't know.
Eric Rubin: Do I want a short price on a horse who... Time to craft and compete my hammer. you know, nothing against him and nice horse, but I don't know. I don't need that horse in a shop for a short price here. So, um, i said I'm pretty spready here.
Eric Rubin: I'll just go so through some of the words if you want that I'm going to be using and and like. I like the one Moon Knight, which is...
G Q: Moonlight! The wand horse. What the?
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: you know what has Peter Miller, wink wink, been feeding him since he's got his barn. The horse. had had never even showed or or gotten. you know, seventh, sixth, sixth, fifth in grade threes.
G Q: And then. get goes out Maybe it was the salt air at Del Mar. that that This horse took two. you know suddenly Bing Crosby, you know third. and then run second.
G Q: in the Pat O 'Brien. So yeah, based on those last two, yes. The horse. It should be considered. Deep closer, though. so Need some peace.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I actually kind of like this horse here. um Since going to sprinting, that was a change with Peter Miller. that They sprinted this horse. And he's run two pretty good races, sprinting, closing. I don't think the pace has collapsed or anything like that. He didn't just suck up. Yeah, he didn't win, but he was right there. And I don't really love this field, so why can't coming out of grade one, grade two? Now, I do like the California.
Eric Rubin: ah exchange rate here, right? So there's a Canadian exchange rate. I'm going to offend our Canadian friends. I love Canada. Oh, Canada, we love you, but... uh the Canadian exchange rate is if it's a grade one, you deduct two. So it's really like a grade three.
Eric Rubin: A grade two in Canada is kind of like an overnight stakes and a grade three is like an allowance rate. So that's how I do connect Canada. And I'm going to have a West Coast bias.
G Q: we'll have We'll have to send ah an apology to Doug Peterson.
Eric Rubin: Yes. And Woodbine's not going to take our sponsorship, but in and California, I'm probably a little biased. I'm going to offend some friends out there too, but I kind of take one off sometimes too. So, you know, maybe a grade one is like a grade two.
Eric Rubin: No, I'm kidding. But ah yeah, I don't know. I'm not that familiar with the horses there. I didn't look them up and all, and they seem fine.
G Q: Iron Man Cal, I think he was a turf horse. I think this was his first time running on dirt.
Eric Rubin: I think you might be right. I'm not going to look it up now, but I did look up the horses that this guy ran against and they were fine.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: It wasn't like, oh my gosh, but like one of them had done, I don't know if it was that horse, probably another horse ran well at Oklahoma, like a hundred buyers. So it wasn't like he was beating nothing or running against nothing, but yeah, I thought he ran pretty well there. There's a chance for a fast pace with the two El Grande O.
Eric Rubin: The six, ignite the light. And the eight, contrary thinking. like I don't think they're going to be burning up front, but you know it could be a little bit of a pace here. I'm not... Again, if you're in New York and your betting race is expecting fast pace, you're probably going to lose money. And I'm not kidding. This is one of the... things that changed me from unsuccessful to fairly successful is I just started favoring speed a lot more in this several years ago. and Like...
G Q: I noticed that while we were doing this podcast.
Eric Rubin: You're waiting. Yeah. Yeah, when you're just...
G Q: you like You like speed.
Eric Rubin: Oh, God. I mean, they're racing. So if you're faster, or that's good. It doesn't mean closers can't win. And especially in New York when they. rarely go out at it in jockeys. you know If you have a two horses and one's a speed horse, I'd rather have the speed horse. Again, it's not...
Eric Rubin: that's not the only thing or perfect thing, but I kind of err on the side of speed, but I do like moonlight a closer as I'm saying speed. And I think the horse has a shot here. I thought it would be shorter than six to one, but I guess I'm wrong there. um The eighth horse I kind of like, you didn't mention this horse, Contrary Thinking.
Eric Rubin: This horse is running for Amelia Green, who's been pretty hot. And horse. You know, it's coming out of a race where pace was slow, but didn't do all the 75 shot and finished third in their mold strength, so you know Even though the pace wasn't fast, once battling a... favorite so it wasn't a bad red that ran decent last time and two back i like to race there oh here's a race there so you know This horse is stepping up in class out of allowance to a grade three, but again, I don't think that...
Eric Rubin: It's too big a step up. This is the horse that used to be the rabbit for uh, chad brown if you remember when he was running, uh sierra leone and then
G Q: ah Yes.
Eric Rubin: He went to what, Emilio Green, they shortened him up and, you know, he seems to be a nice horse. So I'm kind of. Like him and the 8 -horse, a 1 -8. I like the other Amelia Green, the Ford Doc Sullivan, especially if it's wet out. This horse is loves the wet. But I thought this horse ran real well too back in the Jay Morrissey. I forgot the first name, James Morrissey. Jim Morrissey, maybe. And then last race in that allowance optional claim, I had a very slow start, like a really slow start. It was on. his own but that's
Eric Rubin: Been a problem occasionally, but not too often. So you got to be aware if you bet Doc's 11, you might get a bad break. But generally speaking, he's okay at the gate. And that was that Wilton shoot, which I kind of, you know. Give him a little bit of a pass for as well out of the start because everyone's crushing each other. Same ground. I think he already had to wait some ah eventually. so I thought he could have easily won that race. So I kind of like Doc Sullivan a little bit here.
Eric Rubin: And just one or two others real quick tea craft I'm gonna throw and he's coming out of that grade one for go I thought the horse ran pretty well was ah you know on the rail there I don't know if the rail was place to be but I could be wrong about that and Um, you know, it was a little tight at times, but you know, decent trip, but I just think this horse has a chance. I kind of liked this horse last time too. So I'm not going to throw the horse out because of the last race. And, you know, I'm going to get. Probably twice the price, if not more. as ah As, um...
Eric Rubin: What's the name of the three senior officers? So why not go with that horse? So those are the ones I'm mostly on. And then the last one, I'm sorry, I'm talking so much. Bring the smoke. I'm going to throw the five in. This is a horse that we did the podcast on this race a few weeks ago or a month ago.
Eric Rubin: And I kind of like this for us as a possibility as a long shot. And then Bookumdano got scratched. And when Bookumdano got scratched, it really changed that race that most of them are coming out of the forego. And I didn't have an excuse for bringing in the smoke or bring the smoke.
Eric Rubin: But if I like the words last time. I don't think the horse is winning here, but if I'm spreading anyway, it's not like I'm adding that much to my ticket. If I leave this horse out and he wins and I'm like, Oh, I loved him last time. And now when I loved him, I liked him less. I, now I left him out. Cause he had, you know, one bad race. I don't know what was all you know up with it. Again, I didn't see an excuse for it. But... It's just one race.
Eric Rubin: 20 to one or so i'll take a chance with that horse as well. So i'm spreading with the one four five eight ten Now. Usually I would say if you're spreading, don't add the favorite, but it's not like the three is a huge favorite and he can win. So I'm generally against this horse.
Eric Rubin: But if I'm singling to like five or six to one shots in this sequence. And imagine I hit with two 5 -to -1 singles or 6 -to -1 singles, and I hit everything else I lose because I don't use senior officer here. So there's a chance I throw him in if it's not that expensive because it's not like I'm against him. I'm just against him at the price. So again, usually that's not good betting. If you're singling ah a four to five shot later, if you're singling Kathy and Marissa, you know, I probably wouldn't want to use this horse.
Eric Rubin: Assuming I was... you know, using chalk in the other legs, but sometimes. I mentioned this last week. Sometimes you try and be too perfect and you get too clever. so I'm not sure about senior officer, but in general, I'm against him. and I'm probably not going to bet the race vertically either, but if I did, I would just spread and try and beat senior officer. So I'd probably.
Eric Rubin: Depending on the odds, I might box even like four horses here that I mentioned or something like that and try and spread to beat him if he's short like five to two or shorter and the other ones are are good prices here. Was there anyone I didn't mention you want to say or or anything about the horses I mentioned?
G Q: Uh... No, not at all.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
G Q: Fine.
Eric Rubin: And quit. Crazy Mason is having you...
G Q: i mean other other than
Eric Rubin: Oh, go ahead.
G Q: And... What you mentioned about um contrary thinking, you you you talked about... The last two races, oddly enough, three races back only got beat by a nose by senior officer So...
G Q: You're going to get 6 -1 on contrary thinking versus 3 -1 on senior officer. so If you like contrary thinking, go for it.
Eric Rubin: Yep.
G Q: um Okay, so, leg four, race ten. at Belmont Park on Saturday, late pick five. It is the one and one half mile. Joe Hearst Turf Classic.
G Q: on the Widener turf. It's still the Widener turf. Even though they totally rebuilt, it's still the Widener turf. Um... Both Eric and I also landed on the three horse El Cordo base.
G Q: as The morning line favorite, Eric, was correct in... that he believed it should be. five or He should be five to two more in line, which...
G Q: David Aragona made him the five to two more in line. So ah field of seven, we have... El Cordo base as The five to two favorite.
G Q: Um...
G Q: lack of speed, I think. in this race. Nobody really wants to go to the lead. I think. that either um The Two Horse, Pride of Arras.
G Q: who uh had shown some early speed. or Farbridge. are your candidates to uh Try to take the field, gate the wire.
G Q: What do you say?
Eric Rubin: who You're putting me on the spot here. Uh, I don't know. Cause you have some boys that like to be a little forward, but not really speed wars.
G Q: well
Eric Rubin: Like. Pride of Arrows, the two. Was you know almost like a runoff when he was in Europe a race or two? So that horse can go, but is European speed the same? I don't know. I don't know about Farbridge.
G Q: there is
Eric Rubin: I don't see that horse close to the pace. Maybe Program Trading, the seven I can see going.
G Q: um mr the re
Eric Rubin: ah Fort George has a little speed to be close. So I would say the seven or the two, maybe Fort George, the six, I don't think be on the lead, but be close. and
G Q: Well, the tubercle.
Eric Rubin: that's I'll be married.
G Q: Yeah. I mean, let's talk about Fort George for a second. i mean Two back when he showed up in the bowling green, I was all over him. I thought he was a much better horse based on who he'd...
G Q: Ran against, you know, Alms Budsman and... Rebels romance. And he came up against a paceless race there. That old Crazy Burns just went to the front.
G Q: And he was forced to try to stay close to old crazy bones. That really wasn't his style. And that was the race that Pratt like kind of stopped right. Riding old crazy bones. And you almost had a heart attack because he needed old crazy bones for your pick five.
G Q: And he barely held on.
Eric Rubin: o
G Q: I've kind of gone south on fourth. Fort George. I mean, he's now... stepping up in in in uh you know a grade one And um I don't know, you probably saw that last race or at least watched the replay.
G Q: What did you like about that trip? that You felt he should be. you know, maybe around three to one, you know, you're going to get nine to two. Pass.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, well, I mentioned I have two singles. This would be the other single for George.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: I like a lot here, which is surprising because that race two back we mentioned i like old crazy bones you like fort george And now it's like role reversal here. Not that you like going crazy when he's not here, but I like Fort George here a lot.
Eric Rubin: Just had a very wide trip that day against a really good field. It was a great two, but those horses would be tough in here as well. So I'm all over it. I think that was... um ah What was a Burnham Square? I don't know.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: i really don't I haven't really watched many Burnham Square races, to be honest. I know he's like... gets good buyers and wins all these turf races.
G Q: that now he's a Now he's a turf star. That's all I am.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, yeah, so I don't know how great he really is, but he was talked about and he was in that race and didn't really do all that much. so um I just think for George. Had a really wide trip. You mentioned Chewbacca. I thought you know he had to kind of chase the pace. He didn't want to. Maybe that happens again. I don't know. but I'm not a huge fan of this jockey. If you remember, one of the things I didn't like about him too back was the fact this jockey, Schumacher, he takes them wide. Like in Europe, there was like five horse fields. He'd go five wide in a five horse field.
Eric Rubin: He didn't go wide in the ah race too bad. So I appreciate that. He didn't. Do anything bad, I don't think. and then last race they go jamie spencer jamie spencer takes the horse ridiculously wide he was posted outside, but Yeah, that that's the main reason. I think he improved his... I mean, if you're a buyer fan, his buyer went up.
Eric Rubin: He ran against a tougher field. He improved the speed figure. Like I said, he had ah a worse trip. I just think he improved a lot last time. I was impressed with the race. And I think he's going to be very, very tough in here. in his m competition the three horse el cordobas It's coming off a really long layoff. And, you know, this horse ran really well last year, obviously coming over here. was third in the Breeders' Cup turf.
Eric Rubin: at 17 -1, but you know put up some big speed figures and ran pretty well against Kim in third to Rebel's Romance and all that. And if you look at that, actually, you know what? Ethical Diamond. who came in second in the Marines Cup Tournament. Fort George just ran against, came in second to Fort George. I think that horse was off a layoff to be fair, but still you can see what Fort George ran against. Sorry, I got off on a tangent.
Eric Rubin: El Cordova then went to Saudi Arabia after a couple months off. I think it was Doha. I'm sorry, Qatar. That's what you're saying, Cutter? or Qatar.
G Q: Cutter. Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I don't know.
G Q: Cutter.
Eric Rubin: I sound like bougie when I say cutter, but I think that's what they say. So Qatar, for those of you who grew up in the 80s and thought it was Qatar.
G Q: Right, right. Run it. Duh. versus DOH!
Eric Rubin: I think it's Doha, but oh, that's okay. That I know because I think that's the capital of... Connor. Doha, Qatar.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: At least that's where I think the US has like an Air Force base or something like that. But anyway.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: So.
G Q: I mean goliath the horse that ran second in that race Came back and won a grade two at Chantilly. And then most recently went to...
Eric Rubin: Chantilly.
G Q: Ask. Yeah, ASCII.
Eric Rubin: Chantilly Lace? Isn't it Chanty?
G Q: Shanti.
Eric Rubin: Come on, we gotta sound like we know what we're talking about here.
G Q: That is. Oh, real French French.
Eric Rubin: Yes.
G Q: Sean T.
Eric Rubin: Don't i have great. Great French. Very good.
G Q: Okay, sorry.
Eric Rubin: Pardon in your French.
G Q: My my my my. high school French teacher. God rest his soul. Hmm. probably rolling over in his grave with my pornography.
Eric Rubin: Mmm.
G Q: of Sean T.
Eric Rubin: I can imagine.
G Q: But anyway, so, and Goliath came back and ran fifth. uh in at in a grade one at ascot so you know They were decent horses, obviously. ah running over there.
G Q: So, bye.
Eric Rubin: And.
G Q: I think he's...
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: I mean, Oh, yeah, there was a look at at the three races he ran in the in the States, you know.
Eric Rubin: On site. I just want to...
G Q: not not chopped liver.
Eric Rubin: And in that race, um he was fifth. This is the Doha cutter race for El Cordova's last time.
G Q: Uh huh.
Eric Rubin: He was fifth of seven early, so he was kind of towards the back. Was too wide. I thought he got stuck in the stretch. I don't think he was winning, but he definitely got stuck in the stretch and ran a little better than it looks, I think. but That was a while ago.
Eric Rubin: It wasn't as good as his other efforts probably. and I have nothing terrible to say about Uncle Novus other than you're getting a short price on a horse off a long layoff. for what it's worth. Apple be in the US off of 180 days is Only two starters.
Eric Rubin: In the last few years five years, whatever and none of them hit the board. None of the two at in the board again tiny sample size, but um I'm okay playing against Al Cordobis, knowing that this horse is is more than capable of winning, but um i I'm fine going against him.
Eric Rubin: And there's two other horses I like in here, but I'm still probably going to single Fort George.
G Q: sin Hold on. sit Since you corrected me with shanty.
Eric Rubin: Uh oh.
G Q: It's El Cordo bass. At least that's how Larry Colmus pronounces it. El Codo Bass.
Eric Rubin: Well... Well, I don't see the ascent day over the a at the end So I think Larry's wrong on that one and it's an Irish words to with a Spanish name I don't know this throwing me off here
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: but Anyway, do you want to go or you want me to mention the other two hoarders I like?
G Q: Yeah.
G Q: i Now you're on a roll.
Eric Rubin: Your call.
G Q: You can mention your two horses.
Eric Rubin: All right, so the other two I like are are kind of short prices, probably the other two favorites. That's the one, Minaret Station. Of course, I liked his race two back. I was kind of, as you mentioned, I singled out Crazy Bones and and made a lot of money on that pick five, so I'm glad I did.
Eric Rubin: but I thought Minaret Station 2 back in the morning and green ran really well. There wasn't much pace, as you said, Fort George kind of, you know, followed all crazy moments for a paceless race. Minaret Station closed nicely. So I was like, wow.
Eric Rubin: So last race, I did like Minaret Station a lot. I like Servi a lot. I don't know a lot, but I like Servi too. And that was the race we were, I think you were with me at Timonium. I'm pretty sure you were next to me when they ran.
G Q: She came from last in the stretch to win.
Eric Rubin: Uh... You know... And if you remember, it was like a paceless race. And I think I tweeted out something like, did she just close?
G Q: It was so slow!
Eric Rubin: Did she just run like 21 and four, the final, uh, eighth mile there. It turns out it was like, really, it wasn't that fast, but it was like really fast. She closed like crazy survey and really was impressive. But, um, my point is that.
Eric Rubin: Minaret Station was up on a slow pace, but kind of what you said about Fort George 2 -back when Fort George had to go after old Crazy Bones, that's what Minaret Station did last time. There was no pace. so And Jose Ortiz said, let me just go close to the pace because I don't want to happen what happened last race where there was no pace and I was too far back. And it's probably not a style he didn't run bad, but he almost held on anyway. So I can't say I love, love Minaret Station, but I do like Minaret Station here. And the other horse I would contemplate is one of the other favorites too, Pride of Arras, if that's how you say it.
Eric Rubin: Two back.
Eric Rubin: Had a pretty easy lead by three lengths in a five horse field and ended up coughing it up. So, you know, nothing special there. And then had a pretty good trip last time. But still, I think in a race is not much to speed. I think this horse is going to sit a really good trip. Again, don't love the two. I prefer the one over the two, but I'm okay with the. ah with the two a little bit here. So what I'm going to do is pretty much single Fort George in most bets. If I add a second horse at all, it will be Minaret Station. As far as vertically going, I'll try and just beat El Cordobis.
Eric Rubin: or corridor base and Hopefully, I'm right if I try and do that, but um all my bets will go through Fort George here, and I'm i'm pretty high on that horse. so Here's Fort George and Willie Schumacher or whatever his name is. Kieran Schumacher. I don't know. I made up Kieran. Is that right?
Eric Rubin: I don't have a first name, I have K.
G Q: Yeah. Hear it.
Eric Rubin: Oh look at that!
G Q: Care ran.
Eric Rubin: I stereotyped the Irish, but I did it.
G Q: Tehran shoot shoe mark, not marker.
Eric Rubin: Correctly.
Eric Rubin: Yes, not shoe marker or maker.
G Q: Schumacher.
Eric Rubin: Shoe mark.
G Q: Yes. No.
Eric Rubin: um I'm not sure that Willie Shoemaker at. Right now, is he alive? I don't know. I hope he is. But he might be a better jockey right now. but um Yeah, we'll see. Shumark. Prove me wrong, Kieran.
Eric Rubin: Prove me wrong. Show me you can ride.
G Q: In a span of two races, we've alienated Canada and Ireland.
Eric Rubin: Because I'm going through you.
G Q: Boom.
Eric Rubin: Yes, very good.
G Q: What can we do in the last race?
Eric Rubin: All right. So yeah. So anyway, pick five wise.
G Q: and
Eric Rubin: I'm fairly spread. um Singling race. ah eight with the eight horse right. And I'm fairly spread in race nine. I'm singling Fort George. I might add minaret station a little bit, but mostly singling.
Eric Rubin: And then the last race, I'm not going very deep either. So we can go to that unless you have something else. Cause I did most of the talking there.
G Q: No, you're going to do most of the talking in this last leg because I am opinionless. It's the final leg of Saturday's at late pick five at Belmont. It's the grade two flower bowl going a mile.
G Q: Quarter on the inner turf. And again, ah eric and i nailed it uh with the morning line favorite being the four horse.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: Catherine Arista.
Eric Rubin: Real tough. Real tough.
G Q: Uh... I nailed the morning line this time. Eight to five. You had two to one. so
Eric Rubin: Correct.
G Q: of
Eric Rubin: Congratulations. congratulations
G Q: A broken clock is... write twice a day. Even though I see Catherine Marissa, the horse to beat. More than favorite.
G Q: I question whether or not she wants this distance. I mean, she's 0 for 4. at this distance And even though if you look way back, two years ago at Kentucky Downs. She did win a non -graded event September 11th, 2024, going a mile and five sixteenths.
G Q: which qualifies at you know go in at least a mile and a quarter So that's my biggest question question about her so i think she's a vulnerable favorite you think not
Eric Rubin: I do not think so.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: I think she's a very strong favorite here. And I think even eight to five might be an overlay on her. Yeah, listen, I... Thought about that too. I made a note of it as you know mile and a quarter isn't pushing it but she's run pretty well at a mile and three sixteenths, which is just under a mile and a quarter.
Eric Rubin: i'm I'm not that concerned about the myonic order. I'm really not. It's a small thing. Listen, if you have a favorite out there and you can find a knock on a favorite, you know, and... and you're okay with that and don't play captain marissa that's fine i just you know To me, someone who's often trying to beat favorites, I just...
Eric Rubin: I don't know. I'm not really trying to beat Kathy and Marissa here. Uh, she's run really well the last two races I have like I i've said this before maybe but you know when I I make notes and stuff like that But I always put like plus or minus like a plus means upgrade because of the bad trip or whatever And a minus is like...
G Q: Yeah, four pluses.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, was that?
G Q: You have four pluses next to Kathy and Marissa.
Eric Rubin: Well... No, I don't. But the four flexes was against Wrighton.
G Q: so Okay.
Eric Rubin: Wrighton had three, I think. That's like as much as you can get. Uh, but Kathy Marissa has a plus for the last two races. I won't go through the whole trip in both races, but you know, last time was two to three wide. Wasn't able to save ground.
Eric Rubin: There was really no movement in the stretch. Now they they did close a little during the race, but once I got to the stretch, there was like no movement and she still closed. i just I mean, I thought she ran really, really well.
Eric Rubin: on grade ones i just i'm ah i'm a fan of captain marissa here so Uh, I, I'm not really trying to beat her. I do want to use a second horse though. So I'm going to go too deep again. You know, Sometimes when you use a favorite, you don't want to spread, but I think it's okay to add a second or so. I often don't like using two because it kind of doubles your bet. but If it's a price, I'm going to throw the horse in. And the horse that I'm going to add is... ah a Horse that I thought was going to be more like five to one, six to one. and David Hazard.
Eric Rubin: 12 to 1 in the morning line. That's the 8. Ezna. You won't like because...
G Q: And you might.
Eric Rubin: Oh, no, she ran.
G Q: You mocked me when I had her at 15 -1 saying, can I get that can i get fixed odds on Esna?
Eric Rubin: Oh go ahead. Well, let's see what...
Eric Rubin: I did say that. And Fort George, whatever you had, I want to fix odds on Fort George. So. um i'm okay with that too but um Yeah! I thought you might knock her, but she did run against older, three -year -old going against older, but she did have one race against older.
G Q: Yes.
Eric Rubin: I like that race too back at Ascot. I thought that. um speed held really well she was mostly too wide and she closed pretty well into that race. I know she wasn't close to winning, but I thought she closed pretty well into that race. And then last race had a slow start and she doesn't have early speed. And we'll talk about the pace in a second. I'll talk about it if you don't, but she doesn't really have early speed, but I thought she ran fine last time. It wasn't like, oh my God, upgrade that race. But I thought she ran fine. I like to race two back. I think she's going to get speed here.
Eric Rubin: Now the distance is going up. And that's something, but if you were, she's run okay going long, she's wanted a mile and a quarter before. So I think the distance only helps her. And here's where I tease something earlier in the card, uh, in the show, and I'm going to bring it up now.
Eric Rubin: So watching the replay from. You want to see the track? You can get French Revenge here. you can
G Q: no No, thank you.
Eric Rubin: You don't want your French teacher to roll back. You want him to stay on his belly.
G Q: Charlie. Darlie Pre -Laurie.
Eric Rubin: Oh, no, i was so one that's very good I was talking about the track.
Eric Rubin: that Esna wrote at.
G Q: Oh, I'm sorry.
Eric Rubin: Come on, you can do it. No?
G Q: Do we? Do we?
Eric Rubin: Yay. Well, I think you're right. I could be wrong, but I think you're right. So at Dovi. Uh... so i'm listening
G Q: Cruella DuVee!
Eric Rubin: Yes. Luckily, even though these raises are in French, They ah have... At least the replays I watch, they have English announcers because I don't speak French. of less men your moviebi n para no ah front face So...
Eric Rubin: The announcers calling the race and you know Edson is towards the back after a slow start And he mentioned... And Esna, who jumped the hedge on the way to the post. So apparently she jumped ahead.
Eric Rubin: It wasn't on the video because it starts right when the race is getting ready to start.
G Q: right
Eric Rubin: But apparently she jumped a hedge. on the way to the post. I don't know if that hurt her or not. but it can't help her. And I thought she ran really well two back and she jumped a hedge and still came in second. So you know what? At 12 -1 especially. I'm very happy with that. So i' I'm going to use Esna. I think there's going to be pace in the race. Again, it's dangerous thinking this pace in the race in New York, but you have a couple of horses that like to show some speed. And listen, maybe there won't be a ton of pace, but it's not going to be like, I don't think it's gonna be like 51 crawling and maybe it will be.
Eric Rubin: Uh, but if that's the case, she'll just be closer to the pace. So I'm not that worried about it. She ran well along. So I definitely like Esna here. I like Kathy and Marissa though. And those are the only two I want to use. I do want to talk about some other hoarders. If you don't. because there are some horses that will take money that I think we should mention to the audience here. But I'll throw it back to you before I do any of that.
G Q: Yeah. um what i The one horse i I'd like to touch on is the 10. jazora
Eric Rubin: hu
G Q: Okay. On the podcast last week, there there was a horse, I forget the horse's name, but you had asked Jackson because the horse threw in a clunker, you know, very uncharacteristic of performance.
G Q: And I'm thinking, okay, that, you know, just... that What do you do with a horse when it throws in one bad performance? well just or is thrown in two bad performances at very low odds and it's like
Eric Rubin: Right. Yeah.
G Q: I was really looking forward to seeing what David put as the morning line odds because I was like, Oh gosh. In reality, the horses, you know, if you you put a line through those two, the horse would be much lower.
G Q: but then again yeah you know two races in a row you starts making a trend so All right. you know, You thought 10 -1. I thought 8 -1. David settled on 6 -1.
G Q: So what what do you do with this horse as far as if you liked a horse in the past or, and you know, just...
Eric Rubin: Yeah. And, uh,
G Q: at Whatever you want to say about. this situation.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and and just talking about what you mentioned with last week's show with Jackson, um that it was a 10 -horse, Linda Rice horse. And to give, ah since we mentioned his name, David Argonaut, a lot of credit. He mentioned in his little write -up... That the horse had run on like a either a dead rail or was outside I forgot what it was, but it was on a really bad part of the track And that was his excuse.
Eric Rubin: So he found an excuse.
G Q: Hmm.
Eric Rubin: And he got a good price and got paid and and had a great pick. So I saw that before betting the race. But... Not when we were doing the podcast, and I didn't know about the ah the certain track there, so maybe I'm not as well.
G Q: Gotcha.
Eric Rubin: educated as I like to think. but um So. And that was the only race I lost in the pick five because I was stupid. you know, trying to be the favorite. That was ah the Chief Wallaby race. I always say this. I even mentioned on the air.
Eric Rubin: When you're trying to beat like a four to five shot or one to two or whatever, like I have no problem spread as much as you have to, to get through that leg. You know, if you don't have to, you don't have to, but I didn't have strong, strong opinions. I went with like a 40 to one shot. I tried and I threw in another horse. It was like second or third choice, but I should have spread there and I knew it and I would have had the 10 spread, but I kind of blew that one. But anyway, uh, I'm not a just or a fan here. I think, you know, she's getting that because of the 105 buyer in the breeders cup last year. She ran a little better last time. She's been a little wide. She hasn't had great trips. Maybe you can argue she's getting back into form. And even though Servier or Servi.
Eric Rubin: uh closed into that pace last time she really didn't have a pace to close into and this time they have um the uncoupled entry i don't know if you want to call it that the six horse opulent restraint, who apparently is for Peter Brandt's wife, I guess that is. I'm assuming, not mistress.
Eric Rubin: Uh, but that would be the 30 to one shot to six. And... I'm assuming this horse is in the race coming out of a sprint to show speed to give. you know, some speed to Jizora, the 10 horse to close into, but that's going to help.
Eric Rubin: esna my horse so i hope that's the case who's a pretty big closer and katie marissa is not a huge closer but comes up in pace too so i don't think that's really going to help too much anyway But yeah, I'm...
Eric Rubin: I would generally be against Gizora. I mean, you're finally getting a little bit of a price. you know Six to one still is too low for me. And you can argue improve last time a little bit. But, yeah, I'm not on Jezora. And I like two horses a lot here, so I don't need to go to the 10 horse. But, you know, if I was using like four or five horses, I'd probably use Jezora.
Eric Rubin: I'm not.
G Q: okay Fair enough.
Eric Rubin: 2. Hmm. Do you want to keep going?
G Q: du Do you have any opinion on the 11 horse cathedral?
Eric Rubin: Yep.
G Q: i'm I'm kind of liking cathedral.
Eric Rubin: Yes.
Eric Rubin: I'm not against cathedral big time but again. I like the a top two better I thought the horse had a really good trip last time coming over from Ascot. ah Save ground.
Eric Rubin: had really a perfect trip in that race and still lost to Kathy Marissa, who had a much worse trip. You want to say that now the horse has had time in the United States to settle, goes to Flavian Pratt. I mean, but Santana gave a great ride, so I can't really say it's a huge upgrade. Yeah, would I rather Pratt or Santana? Usually Pratt.
Eric Rubin: But Santana's done really well anyway and had a good summer. So I can't even say the jockey upgrade. I mean, going to Brown now and... Had some time so I don't like dislike the 11, but I definitely like happy marissa more and I definitely like um the eight horse more because of the price so i'm uh I'm not.
Eric Rubin: hitting cathedral you know it would probably be like my you know if we put out picks here that would be my third pick i guess to come in third but i'm not betting
G Q: No.
Eric Rubin: cathedral most likely i did want to mention the two sunlit uplands i don't know if you remember this horse we covered this horse on the august 22nd podcast there and this is a horse it was a two horse in that race coming over from europe and i like this horse a lot and i singled this horse and pick fives and pick fours everything was about 10 to 1 or a shade under 10 to 1
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: And the horse had a really good trip. And then if you remember the winner and one more time or whatever, like drifted out five pass. and I really thought they should have taken him down, and they would have put up the two. It would have made me a fortune. I think I had the exactus, so I made some money, but I would have had a lot more, and I'm pretty sure I would have hit him. big pick five too. So it's been a while. So I totally, I didn't.
Eric Rubin: Remember a hundred percent, but that was like bringing up bad memories of sunlit uplands. The problem with her today, I loved her last time. The problem today is twofold. She's coming off a really good trip until the end. Yes. And she probably would have won the race, but you know, still had a perfect trip up until that point. So even if she was like, you know, got an extra length or whatever, it's not like I'm going to love her that much more. And the other thing is the distance. Like, I don't know if adding distance to this horse is going to help where she generally runs shorter distances. so Like if you'd like some lit up lands to chew, I wouldn't talk you off the horse, but.
Eric Rubin: I loved her last time, but she's really not so much for me this time. So um I'm going to kind of fade that horse a little bit. Again, if I was spreading like four or five horses, I'd probably use her because I don't hate her. But for the most part, I'm not on that horse.
Eric Rubin: Um, Fionn, the one is interesting because there's a horse who, you know, looked like was going to be a really good horse. I thought was telling off a little bit and then beat, uh, Laurel in who I like a lot, who was a really good horse in New York. Uh, three back in the jockey club Oaks, if that's what it's called. And.
Eric Rubin: so warlin film beat that horse and ran really well in november i'm like oh maybe the horse is now back Comes back in January and Gulfstream going a mile and a half and this rains a mile and a quarter solo shorter
Eric Rubin: and didn't really run very well in that race. Never saved ground. It was two wide, two wide, three wide, but I didn't think it ran really well. And then came back in an allowance race, which I'm sure was a prep because it was only a mile, and this horse goes like a mile and a quarter, a mile and a half. In fact, a mile and a quarter is on the shorter side. So it was a prep race, but really didn't do any running in the race. so I don't know.
Eric Rubin: i don't Again, if I was spreading like five deep or something, that would probably be one of the ones I would use. But I'm mostly not on the one. But you're getting a good price. You're getting Brad Cox, who our friend Tom likes Cox, so he'll probably have him.
Eric Rubin: And nothing's anything wrong with that. And Manny Franco, who's been as good as any jockey in New York in the last few months. So Fionn, the one horse, is fine. But like I said, to me, it's just...
G Q: She.
Eric Rubin: Four and eight, and one of those is going to win, and I think they're going to come one -two.
G Q: i mean the difference in Fian? is that She did well as a three -year -old. She hasn't moved forward. Actually, she's regressed as a four -year -old. so
Eric Rubin: Yeah, makes sense. All right. So as far as betting, do you want to say anything else?
G Q: No, no, I'm good if you want to go and review how to bet the sequence or whatever.
Eric Rubin: I'll talk about betting quickly.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, ah well, on the last on the last race...
G Q: Go for it.
Eric Rubin: ah You know, I mentioned this last week. I don't usually just love boxing two horses or bending two horses in a race like straight or whatever, just because you have to be perfect. But I want to try that here because I really think Kathy Morris is going to be very tough. And I like the eight as my you know price play, who I think is going to be tough too. So um I'll bet the two of them in exact is I'll box it because.
Eric Rubin: I... coming your way. I'll bet the eight to win at anywhere close to, I mean, anything over six to one, I'd probably bet the eight to win, let alone 12 to one. So I'm on the eight as in a win. If I bet triples and stuff, I would, and exact is otherwise.
Eric Rubin: I don't know. I'd put the Four in the eight on top, probably in some triples and throw a couple of words underneath. But for the most part, it's just an exacto win. And then I'll just have four in in horizontals. I mentioned, you know.
Eric Rubin: like Pick threes and sell price singling for George. Pick four will be easy for me. and not Not to hit necessarily, but easy to bet because I have basically like a you know single, spread, single, and two horses, so it would be a very cheap bet there.
Eric Rubin: And that's that's all I'm doing. I'm not going past the four and eight in the last.
G Q: Sounds good. right
Eric Rubin: All right.
G Q: I mean... That's it. And we are two and a half minutes away from the hour. mark So. Anything else you want to... Talk about...
G Q: Strategy wise, you... So I've been making notes and... Your ticket. is Very reasonable. And and you're you're not leaning on chalks in your singles, which is very good to do. so yeah um I'd like to see, can't wait until Saturday to see how things play out.
G Q: hopefully all races are on the turf based on the weather forecast between now we're now Wednesday evening. through saturday so
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I'm i'm hoping because I really do like writing a lot in Race 8. if it comes off i hope they scratch the horse and he runs like next week or something i can find him again but We'll see what happens with the weather. It's kind of changed a little bit. Generally, it's been raining, but it went from like 50 % to 80%. Now it's about 70%. It was earlier in the day. Now it's like in the afternoon maybe. So it might get lucky if it keeps pushing back. but People listening to this, it'll be closer to Saturday. You can check the weather for yourself. ah Elmont, New York. You can get rid of that. Ozone Park.
Eric Rubin: you know On the Weather app, you don't have to have Ozone Park listed anymore where Aqueduct is. Now it's just Elmont, New York, and you can go there. And ah check the weather there. I'm looking forward. I think October 10th, I might be going to Belmont for the first time.
G Q: Cool.
Eric Rubin: uh, because the Islanders are playing after, as you know, I'm a big Islander fan. They beat the Rangers last night. I'm watching a preseason hockey game. Like it's game seven of the Stanley cup finals, by the way, which I know I'm nuts, but I was doing that and they fell down three, nothing.
Eric Rubin: And for those who follow hockey, the dreaded three goal lead, you don't want Rangers got a three goal lead too early. I talk to you about that all the time. I said.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: In hockey, as soon as you see...
G Q: bet Bet the other team when the Islanders go up by two or more.
Eric Rubin: Yep. No, yeah three go it doesn't matter what team three goal lead in the first half first 30 minutes of the game take the horse the the horse take the team that's down three nothing because more times than not it i think they come back and win that's the dreaded three goal lead and islanders came back and won too bad and bet it i don't know if you can even bet preseason hockey but you probably can somewhere All right, anyway, so with that, I'm done. Are you done?
G Q: I'm done. um Thanks ah again for You know carrying the torch last week with ah Jackson. ah Hopefully we'll be able to...
G Q: They've got a few guests and in the future. ah
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: to to make things interesting.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, we have a few guests kind of have lined up one or a couple of people, but I was kind of saving them for when one of us can't make it, but we don't have to do that. So maybe like in in a week or two, we'll get a guest on. I'm trying to be a little picky with the guests and I just want.
Eric Rubin: Good people, I don't know. ah Not that we've had bad guests or whatever, but, you know.
G Q: Yeah. yes's think
Eric Rubin: If people are going to give out advice and stuff, I feel like it should be people who know what they're talking about a little bit, or I feel so. um Yeah, but we got a couple of good ones that we'll get in the next few weeks, I think. Alright.
G Q: Say your byes.
Eric Rubin: So. Yep. Anyway, thanks for listening. If you got this far, really appreciate it. If you can hit. that like button if there is a like button if you can uh spread the word of the podcast we really appreciate it if you could subscribe i think it costs nothing i think it's just like follow so if you're on spotify just hit follow or apple podcast just follow it it just and if you can rate it like five stars or whatever.
G Q: um
Eric Rubin: If you think it's one star rate at one star, I don't really care that much, but, uh, I'd like a five star view. If you have a one star view, reach out to us, tell us why we're trying to improve the show. But yeah, if you can do that, it just reaches more of an audience because we don't really have a marketing budget and I'm a nobody and GQ is a somebody, but not a huge buddy.
Eric Rubin: So a little more of a body than me, somebody than me, but we don't have a. Huge reach. So we appreciate any help. But thank you so much for listening. We wish you luck in the races this week.
Eric Rubin: See you next week. Ta -ta!
