Transcript
Eric Rubin: Hey and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium. Gary Quill GQ. How be you?
G Q: I'm just fine, Eric. Down here in the mid -atlantic we kind of skirted our way away from the nor 'easter but Seem to be things are a little different up in your neck of the woods and further.
G Q: Are you dried out yet?
Eric Rubin: Yeah. Yes, I'm fine. Not everyone that I'm ah close to is fine as far as the house goes, but... um You know, everything's okay. Thank you for ah for asking. But yeah, a lot of rain this weekend and a lot of water the last few days. so Right now, it's pretty good. It's actually overcast today. On Thursday, we're recording this Thursday afternoon. but I think we're pretty dry until Sunday, so I think we're okay for the races on Saturday at Belmont.
G Q: Good. And ah the makeup day today, Wednesday at Belmont. ah the drainage system must work well in the new digs of Belmont because they're claim they're firm, the turf is firm. so And I saw a one race. um that Was taken off the turf.
G Q: It ran on the Topeta yesterday. Yeah, yes, Ray. and um It was like a merry -go -round race or conveyor belt race, whatever. whatever you want to use.
G Q: Horse went out on top. and stayed there so i think it's something to look at in the future for the you'll the new Tapita. but um We're hoping that we're on the turf because... ah What we're going to go over for Saturday is the late pick five at Belmont.
G Q: It's the babies, the two -year -olds. Late pick five. a bunch of graded stakes races and Should we get started? Do you want to? Throw in any comments about the new Belmont. to now since Last week's podcast got trashed.
Eric Rubin: Heh.
G Q: which
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I was excited that they were going to bring some races back. Two of the ones that I liked. And then um the course that I like that you don't like apparently anymore, Fort George. scratch today. So that was disappointing.
G Q: Wasn't going to win anyway, as you would always say.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, he was going to win easily. Well, something was wrong with him apparently, so maybe he wouldn't. If something wasn't wrong, he would have won easily today, and it was an easy single. So like an idiot, instead of being like, ah, I'm not going to bet. I decided what the heck.
Eric Rubin: And I switched my single ah from Fort George to Minaret Station. It was the other horse I liked there. I don't really love anyone else. But I can say I love Minaret.
G Q: Everyone's liking the the two horse, forget to something, Avaris.
Eric Rubin: Ah.
G Q: Everybody suddenly is jumping on the bandwagon with that one.
Eric Rubin: Oh yeah.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, you know, it's funny, I... I just kept my pee -pees from the other day when we did it.
G Q: Yeah, me too.
Eric Rubin: And I know I have the wrong numbers, but I knew the names of the horses. So when I put in the bets, I just you know look for their names.
G Q: Oh, that's right.
Eric Rubin: But I don't even know you mentioned a number.
G Q: yeah
Eric Rubin: I'm like, I have no idea what number I'm flipping now.
G Q: It's easy The horse that I'm referring to...
Eric Rubin: to see If I even wrote it.
G Q: is pride of Aris, who is now the floor horse on Saturday.
Eric Rubin: Or pride of Aris.
Eric Rubin: And that's in the Turf Classic.
G Q: What's the two -horse last Saturday? Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, so we'll see.
G Q: All right. Yep.
Eric Rubin: But I'm i'm single to Minaret Station, but we'll see if I can get there. they're already a leg No one cares about this, but they're already a leg in. I did have the winner, but it was kind of chalky that... shalzawa whatever the name of the horse is in race four i guess it was so
G Q: Yep. Yes.
Eric Rubin: We move on, but we'll see. wellll ah
G Q: Yeah, sorry.
Eric Rubin: We'll check if minaret station wins. I have a good chance
G Q: some Some jockey named Flavian Pratt rode the winner in that race. and uh before we started recording i mentioned that eric i said We can make this the quickest podcast, better betting podcast in history. Just say.
G Q: Your ticket should be Pratt Pratt.
Eric Rubin: Hmph.
G Q: Prut, prut, prut! And you know it would probably pay $500 because I think he's on. three, morning line favorites and Uh,
G Q: five to one four to one whatever who are far from an outsider so we'll see
Eric Rubin: Well, the funny thing is I like Pratt in the ah race coming up.
G Q: But.
Eric Rubin: reese five on thursdays on credit worthy a little short seven to two price but
G Q: yes
Eric Rubin: I kind of like him there. I think I actually, you know what? I think I have two singles in the pick five I put it in earlier. I think I singled credit worthy also because I really had no opinion in race four. Shalzawa won. and We went over on the podcast, but that Vosburgh, I really, anyone can win.
Eric Rubin: I don't really have a strong opinion there.
G Q: yeah
Eric Rubin: so I went deep in the other two legs, and I i think I sent an old credit -worthy and minaret station. I put in a pick four, too, as you know, and I spread a little more. uh in the race with credit worthy but yeah we'll see what happens like i said no one really cares anyone here about saturday So maybe we should jump into that before I go off on a tangent. Although, if we're still in the air when we get to some of the ratings I want to bet, maybe we'll talk about how I bet them. but We've probably be off the air by then so go ahead
G Q: Yeah, I mean, with these two -year -olds, there really isn't a lot of back class and stuff that you can look at. And I'm sure you did your homework with looking at some replays. so that's but kind of you really have to lean on because I mean, these two -year -olds can grow overnight from one race to the next. and ah Sometimes that yields. nice prices so so we'll see what we can come up with but Without further ado, Saturday, October 3rd
G Q: ah at bel at the new Belmont Park. The late pick five starts in race seven. which is the Grade II Miss Grillo.
G Q: $250 ,000 purse for two -year -old Phillies going a mile and 16th on the turf. Uh... A field of eight were entered, but thanks to listening to David Aragona, he had posted out that...
G Q: There are two scratches, very likely scratches. Take out the three. Quibbler, who is 10 -1 more in line. and the 8, Sonny Bird, who was 7 -2, but he also had mentioned something that He had made the morning line.
G Q: as if they were going to be scratched. The reason why I think he did that was because he said Quibbler was cross -entered at some point Race it at Keeneland. and the eight sunny bird had a minor setback, so he he seems pretty confident that both of them will scratch out.
G Q: so it leaves us with a field of six with the morning line favorite the six horse domestic agenda for the dynamic duo chad brown and Flavian Pratt. and Uh, How do you see this happening?
G Q: Eric.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I'm kind of upset about the scratches because I really didn't care for either of those horses in this spot. So just hurts the price on the ah other horses here. Excuse me. so When I first looked, I'm like, I'm just going to single this race and move on. I didn't realize I was singling a favorite in domestic agenda. I knew the horse would be like one of the favorites, but I didn't realize.
Eric Rubin: he the Or she, I'm sorry, it would be two to one. in this spot here. Maybe that was naive of me. But I kind of like Domestic Agenda the most. I think there's a bunch of horses that probably could win, but I definitely like this horse the most. and
Eric Rubin: You know, the reason I like the sixth domestic agenda, I just was impressed by the first race. uh, stalked a four to one shot and kind of had ah a fairly easy lead. And then domestic agenda on the turn was too wide. Kind of boring at the top of the stretch. Bumped the horse, lost a lot inside of her. Lost a lot of momentum.
Eric Rubin: and was able to still re -rally and catch that loose, barely loose leader. And really, I don't want to say exploding, but one going away. And domestic agenda was being hard ridden around the turn to keep up.
Eric Rubin: I can easily see how someone watched that race like, Oh, domestic agenda is not going to make it. And yet she was able to not come to a total stop. It wasn't that bad, but she definitely lost momentum and still regained that. I was very impressed by that.
Eric Rubin: uh speed figure is nothing special but i was hoping that would help the price but apparently it's not going through that much. So I don't know if... I mean, in a pick five, I'm probably going to still single her. Assuming she's at least 2 -1.
Eric Rubin: But it does give me... reason to pause. The only problem is if I didn't single her, the words I want to use are not that much higher in price. So it's not like I'm gaining that much by using horses I don't really care for as much. So I'm probably going to single Domestic Agenda. I don't see myself betting this race because Domestic Agenda is a little short. I don't really have an interest in a win bet per se.
Eric Rubin: And the words I would use with her are kind of the favorite. and I've said this before, but, you know, if I like the favorite. I want to not like the second. third favorite or something like that and i don't really dislike the second or third favorite so Probably not a vertical bet.
Eric Rubin: probably single domestic agenda. We can talk about some other horses. I just don't want to hog the spotlight. So I'll throw it back to you. And then if you don't mention anything else, I'll mention some horses. If you don't. Go ahead.
G Q: Hi. there's There's a few that... Just mention real quickly, the the one i I like is the five bounce back nine to two morning line. comes down from the great white north of uh woodbine uh was off really slow, almost...
G Q: Pretty much got left at the gate. and at last grade one, the Natalma. at Woodbine. And. i like the fact that cassie all smart cassie the trainer also entered a horse with appears to have early speed, the two golden siren.
G Q: Doesn't have the... Speed figures that some of these others have in here even though en Listed at four to one. I think it will help keep Pace honest for bounce back. if Bounce back.
G Q: is truly a closer. So that's my reasoning for really liking them. the five bounce back. i'll mention uh the second choice the four Oh!
G Q: For ya! Comes back after just two weeks, which is... Uh, quite astounding. Usually they baby these babies and take their time with them, but Maybe she really didn't work up that much of a sweat and the...
G Q: The um goal is to take her longer, which she should relish it being out of a tap at mayor. uh so Maybe you know she gets the perfect trip behind what should be...
G Q: The two golden siren and this seven bittersweet. taking an early lead. And obviously domestic agenda would probably be right there with Fiora. in the second spot um The one runaway bride came out of that same race at Woodbine.
G Q: Um, Definitely took a step up, even though it just ran fifth by two. uh the speed figure was increased and i like The...
G Q: Late pace speed figures that Runaway Bride got, which... It's very similar to bounce back. those two have the the best late pace probably based on that last grade one So.
G Q: that's Just my opinion. So I would be on the five bounce back.
Eric Rubin: and All the horses you mentioned are fine. I'm not necessarily against any of them. It's not like I moved any of them up greatly based on trips or anything I saw. You kind of poo -pooed the two a little bit, I think. Maybe I'm putting words in your mouth. Golden Siren. I actually like him a little better maybe than Bounce Back to Five. But you're right. it It depends on the pace here. There's a hot pace and it hurts Golden Siren if it's...
Eric Rubin: uh hot pace it helps if i bounce back and vice versa is slow but uh golden cyber is up on a pretty strong pace yeah i had a fairly easy lead but closes it well in the race and The pace was... you know fairly hot so I thought the two wasn't too bad here, but my problem is. If... Other than the Sixth Domestic Agenda,
Eric Rubin: I guess my next horses would be the next favorites the two golden siren the uh four fiora and the five bounce back and that would be the next three favorites so for me Like I said, just domestic agenda. I'm going to move on. And if I lose, I can bet a pick four if I really want to. So that's pretty much it for me as far as this race goes. If you have anything else, feel free.
G Q: Nope. Let's move on to leg two, which is race eight on Saturday at Belmont Park for the late pick five. It's the grade one champagne, $1 .5 million dollar purse for two -year -olds.
G Q: Going one mile. Six have signed to go postward, and oddly enough, I'll let you take... the storyline. Behind the one Johnny Hockey.
G Q: And the three. Good draw. You wanna... Give the non hockey fans. race fans. background on those two horses names
Eric Rubin: Well, I'm assuming Goudreau is an named after Johnny Goudreau the young hockey player who passed away.
G Q: I think that would be a fair assumption.
Eric Rubin: I assume so. Who was killed? I guess about two years ago, a year ago, I don't know.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: uh running his bike very sad him and his brother uh, I guess you're going to tell me Johnny Hockey is also named after him. I don't know
G Q: You would think, right?
Eric Rubin: Maybe.
G Q: Who are you?
Eric Rubin: Yeah, why not?
G Q: Who else has the first name of Johnny that is a great hockey player?
Eric Rubin: I don't know.
Eric Rubin: Johnny Boychuck, Islander defenseman.
G Q: oh Okay.
Eric Rubin: No? Alright.
G Q: An Islanders defenseman.
Eric Rubin: Johnny McClain, a double forward. I can go on and name 800 Johnnies, but it probably is named after him. a Very sad story, so he shouldn't be. We're laughing only because we're making fun of each other because of the situation.
G Q: All right. Since that.
Eric Rubin: but
G Q: Since that lead in... Had ah ah an arousing thud. I thought maybe you'd have a little bit hot, you know an upbeat
Eric Rubin: Yes.
G Q: to that. So. ah We have two prohibitive favorites, even though one is three to five. and ah which is at USS Valor, the five horse.
G Q: And Goudreau, the three horses, eight to five. It appears that all of the experts so far can't... Um... pull them apart. They they believe that It's certainly a two -horse race.
G Q: Uh, can't Choose one. but Are you able to choose one? And... Yeah. Are you able to find someone other than either of those two?
Eric Rubin: Well, as far as choosing one, if you just had a gun to my head, who's going to win the race? Yeah, and probably pick five USS Valor. when they ran together the first time.
Eric Rubin: USS Valor lost to Goudreau by not that much, less than a length. God, you had a tougher trip, a little slow start. It does say steady, which was true a little bit. So, you know, a little bit of a tougher trip.
Eric Rubin: Not bad. um he ran that much better or anything they were similar probably but then USS Valorant took a huge step forward and and ran really well. and Did have a slow start again slightly. Dueled the 27 -1. You finished last. I don't know if that means anything.
Eric Rubin: uh early and then had a fairly easy lead as uss valor after dueling a long shot who came in last yet Pretty easily, but You know, he won by. a ton, put up a huge speed figure. You want to argue bounce? I guess you can, but put up a huge speed versus speed figure first time too, so I don't know if that really applies here.
Eric Rubin: Could Goudreau get better a second out? Of course. so Like I said, gun to my head, I'd say USS Valor, but then you got to go with the price too. Is the price worth it? If you're getting... twice as much or maybe even three times as much on Goudreau.
Eric Rubin: i don't know it's not really ah a betting race for me The only other horse that I would want to make a case for, although it's really hard to, would be the two Raku. Raku had a slightly slow start in his last race to Sapling. sorry over at Monmouth after being stretched out from five furlongs to a mile.
Eric Rubin: Was four wide four crap across the track while the winner saved ground. So why the race didn't like fall apart or anything? ah The horse was very wide, covered a lot more ground than the winner. I don't know. The horse has to take another huge step forward. So I don't know if that horse can win this one, but I can't really tell the difference. um You know, and now they can tell the difference, but between with the odds and all, I don't know, three, five, I guess the five, but.
Eric Rubin: um If I bet this pick five, i'm I'm going to be bad here and probably use those two. I might even throw in Raku, and maybe I'll get my betting credentials. ah withdrawn or revoked but i'm gonna go for some prices later and I'm just trying to get through this leg here with what's most likely going to happen, the three or the five. and If I can, I'll throw in the two as ah a price. I'm singling the first leg. Unfortunately, I'm singling a favorite, so that's not really... A great start to the pick five for me. It's not spreading a lot yet.
Eric Rubin: But I'm going to leave out some other favorites, so hopefully that makes up for some bad stuff I'm doing early, knowing it's not smart, really, what I'm doing as far as value -wise. but Again, if you're going to single a 6 -1, a 10 -1, a 12 -1, something like that,
Eric Rubin: It's not the end of the world putting in two. Big favorites. earlier so anyway yeah i don't know much to say on the other horses i don't really care for them too much so if you want me to say anything about the one the four or the six i will but um Good ending there because I'm not really betting this race either.
G Q: no no No need to. I mean, just you know, things to point out or a coup. That last race was at a mile. none of these others have attempted to go that distance yet.
G Q: You say, oh, well, USS Valor won by 13. If he can win by 13, go on seven, he can win you know easily. Well, not necessarily. and Again. Yeah. He could bounce. Who did he beat last time? You know, those horses.
G Q: Probably haven't run back because he just ran it. the Three weeks ago. Interestingly enough, no love for the sixth Earth Song, 15 -1 Morning Line.
G Q: ooh one by eleven but only beat two horses so yeah that's something to be said there not that the Times were all that bad. No, they they were actually good. but um He only beat two others.
G Q: Club Rain, anybody who likes Russell Wilson, he's, I think, ownership in Club Rain. Speed. So... The fact of the matter is...
G Q: you know who can actually come off the pace and USS Valor showed that when he had trouble. Uh... in his first start. All the rest of them... Show the affinity to be on or near the lead. so Someone will come out of this race looking like the...
G Q: potential Kentucky Derby early favorite, as they always like to say. so um I... As you said, gun to my head, I'd be with you. USS Valor just based on the head -to -head with Goudreau who it you know, appears to be.
G Q: much the second best in here, if you want to call them that. um we'll move on to leg three race nine uh on saturday uh belmont park
Eric Rubin: Short.
G Q: ah It is the... Grade one frisette for two -year -old fillies. The purse is a half a million dollars. We're going one mile. Seven Phillies are... Signed up. to to go the distance here.
G Q: And the morning line favorite is the four horse, eight to five morning line. Libby Lloyd, who was very much impressive against... for foes. in her Debut.
G Q: breaking from the rail. um But... you know, there were a couple other horses that signed up uh who lay scratches would scratch it down to a five horse field Eric, do you believe...
G Q: that libby lloyd is the real deal or are you looking elsewhere
Eric Rubin: No, I mean, I don't know enough about Libby Lloyd, to be honest, but generally speaking, horses coming off of one win where they had an easy lead. i At a short price, I try and avoid, generally speaking. I mean, the horse ran really well. It'll win easily.
Eric Rubin: But for the most part, no. And and one of the reasons... strategy wise right it's not just about do you love the horse you dislike the horse you know a lot of it is just betting strategy wise and If I'm singling a favorite in the first leg and I'm using the two heavy chalks and one heavy, heavy chalk, but two heavy chalks in the second leg, even if I throw in that long shot in the. Second leg, yeah. If he if he wins, then great, the two. but
Eric Rubin: If I get Libby Lloyd too, now I'm talking like ridiculously low. Yeah, if I'm only investing like $8 or $12 in the pick five, that's fine. But so for the most part, I'm going to try and beat Libby Lloyd. It's not like I don't like her at all.
Eric Rubin: But... Like I said. Horns are an easy lead. I just am generally against a horse like that. so There is a voice I kind of like who I'm going to key here. Uh, the odds are not amazing, but not terrible at nine to two, the one revenge of the sis.
Eric Rubin: And... I like that horse's first race. First of all, As I said, there's a mile race to Frisette. And she debuted in a mile. Now that can be seen as a negative sometimes because. you know, maybe the horse just has no speed. Like we have no chance of five and a half or five or six. So let's go long. And the horse just isn't very fast. And that's why, or you say, well, the horse wants distance. So therefore it's okay. So I'm not sure exactly how to read that, but.
Eric Rubin: ah The horse had a very, very slow, so like ridiculously slow, probably spotted the field about six or seven. Seven Lens. and didn't get out finished in the end, but had a really... Make up a lot of ground and the horse.
Eric Rubin: Really, the beginning was mostly her own fault, but she was cut off to some. So, you know, it's a risk, and I wouldn't take a short price on the one because... You never know. If a horse can't get out of the gate, maybe that happens again. So I'm reluctant to go crazy with the one, but I kind of like the one the most here. and I would key the one in my best. I'm going to spread more in a pick five scenario here.
Eric Rubin: but I would definitely keep the one assuming she's 9 to 2 or higher. and I can talk, after we talk about a couple other horses, what I would do with the one. But is there anyone else, or if you have a comment on the one or anyone else you want to talk about before I go on to some others?
G Q: good No, the only thing I'll add with the one, the one ah Revenge of the Sith is half - to Darth Vader. Are you familiar with that horse? Was it Hep? Was it? Pretty decent stakes horse.
G Q: Um... And again. Revenge of the Sith is another one in here that has gone the one mile distance and you said the reasons why maybe they debuted or going a mile even though it was in stakes company She just had it. and She doesn't have the early speed to compete in these sprints um The pace will be interesting.
G Q: obviously the two She's a 12. Tese. All three starts has been the first. to get there. get the first call. in those five five and a half furlongs ah Girls wear pearls.
G Q: Uh, Got shipped out to Del Mar probably in order to cash in on the ship and win promotion that Del Mar had. while they were in tow.
G Q: and um Not sure. If the competition was as stiff as what you've... found on the turf. at Saratoga this summer. but She has speed.
G Q: Libby Lloyd. you know Speed there. Uh... So you know are you looking for a horse that can... actually pass horses, then you're down to... We're back to the one revenge of the sis, the five Dotsie.
G Q: the 6th drum twist, which... If you look at Rome Twist, the short comments, She's had some issues in her first two starts in trying to break her maiden, and really...
G Q: Um, Sure, duh. ah which she's made of when she one going seven for a long. So. Um, I'd probably land on Rum Twist, who is... Actually, the second choice at 3 -1.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I'm not against rum twists at all, and I would use this horse. That's a six, like you said. She ran pretty well. Last time I thought you had a decent trip sitting off of a pace battle, but she ran you know pretty well, and her speed figure matches Libby Lloyd, or at least matches Libby Lloyd in the seven Velouris. You have three horses. Coming up with 78 buyers at the top of the field. So I'm okay with rum tours, assuming the morning line is accurate and she's not shorter than that and shorter than Libby Lloyd.
Eric Rubin: So other than the one just to mention and and you mentioned the pace by the way, first of all the two she's a 12 I just don't know coming out of New Jersey race I just don't know if she's gonna be fast enough to keep up with me. Maybe she will Uh, but I don't know if she's gonna be fast enough to keep up with these but The the two horses other than the one I would want to use mostly or maybe three horses would be the six. You already mentioned, we talked about rum twists.
Eric Rubin: ah The seven Valora, I think has a decent shot here. Now she's coming out of state bread races, but New York bread, no offense to our New Jersey fans, New York bread. snakes or New York bread races or... It's going to be tougher than Jersey bread races. She had a perfect trip. This is this Evan Malora, her first start. She had a perfect trip and then was bumped at the end of the turn.
Eric Rubin: uh had to wait a little bit and then went inside so she had some trouble there and still won easily again i don't know what she's being exactly new york breads and then came back September 4th.
Eric Rubin: Again, put up a nice big figure. Ran well. i don't I don't see any reason to upgrade the performance nor downgrade the performance. um But I thought she ran well. I think she has a shot here. She shows she can pass horses. You know, we'll see the. distance out of Yao Pan was a sprinter, but...
Eric Rubin: ah I don't necessarily think that means she can't go the distance. maybe Maybe it's not ideal. I don't know. I'm not a good enough. expert on pedigree distance and stuff like that so i'm not sure but and the other one i have ah a plus sign next to is the five dot c coming off a restricted maiden win but got off to a very slow start Uh three to four lens slow mostly on her own again. That's a little dangerous
Eric Rubin: And she did have a decent setup there, but won easily. So I'm not anti -fi, but if I was betting this race, I would probably key the one. With the... five, six, seven. So that would be my bet.
Eric Rubin: Assuming the morning line's right. Sometimes when I'm trying to be the favorite, I don't mind boxing all the horses, but... Uh all the ones i'm i'm planning on using but I don't see boxing the one five six seven here just because Maybe like a 50 cent triple box I can do, but I can't see doing like a dollar exacta box because I'm spending.
Eric Rubin: $12 on a four horse box. And if it comes in. You don't pay more than that, but I don't know how much I'll make. I don't think it's worth it. I'm going to have to hit that. like you know Every year. three times be right or something like that to make money and depending on which way it comes, maybe even less.
Eric Rubin: So for the most part, maybe a 50 cent triple box with those four horses. but mostly what i've been doing is like exact as triples one with five six seven one with five six seven and I might even throw in the three girls wear pearls with that just because I thought she...
Eric Rubin: um du She ran well last time. She dueled a 2 -1 shot who finished toward the back of the pack. I don't know how good that horse is, even though she was 2 -1. ah She came back to run a 39 buyer.
Eric Rubin: So. The other thing is Girls With Pearls was tiring late. So even though it looks like she won easily by length, she was getting tired. So I'm not in love with girls or pearls, but for like a dollar, if I have one, three, a dollar exact box, I can see wasting ah a buck just in case she does run well and she's able to get an easy lead here, which most likely won't happen, but it could if they try and rate Libby Lloyd and the two is just not good enough to to have that much speed. So who knows? But yeah, that's basically where I'm at. One with five, six, seven, maybe a little three mixed in.
Eric Rubin: And if the one's not too high, I'll probably make a win bet there. and I do like the next race or two, so I probably bet pick threes and maybe even doubles, but we'll get into that when we get to the... Next race.
Eric Rubin: So that's where I'm at here.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: Feel free to add or... comment in or what you want to do
G Q: yeah I... i failed to turn the page and mention the seven Valora. Yeah, New York bread, but... But... Today's New York breads are not your father's New York breads.
Eric Rubin: Hmm.
G Q: The New York bread program actually, you're seeing more and more New York breads being able to compete. ah in open you know, company And a speed figure is a speed figure. you know Do the speed figures say, oh, well, this horse ran a really nice.
G Q: race The times were good, but... We got to take. five points off the speed figure because it was restricted bread Right?
Eric Rubin: Well, before before I answer that...
G Q: Don't do that. Please tell me that I'll do that.
Eric Rubin: i before you Before I answer that...
G Q: but
Eric Rubin: I'm a little offended here. You just...
G Q: like
Eric Rubin: You just implied like New York breads of yesteryear are not as good as New York breads of today. And not only did you imply that.
G Q: I didn't imply it. I said it.
Eric Rubin: You said, yes. And you said your father's New York breads. And I'd like you to know that I am my father's New York bread. born and bred Bronx, New York, which is why I'm so tough probably.
G Q: ah full -legged
Eric Rubin: So you just said that I'm not as good as those today. So I am a little offended.
G Q: No, no.
Eric Rubin: But I digress. I was so offended. I'm not sure I caught the rest of what you said, but I think you were saying something about, do you take the class into consideration? Are you asking, do I take it or when they make the buyer?
G Q: Not no, no, not the class
Eric Rubin: Do they take that?
G Q: Yeah, when they make the buyer, do they say, oh, wow, this horse ran a really nice race, but it was in restricted, so we got to bump it down a few points.
Eric Rubin: Alright. I don't want to get sued for slander about something I don't know. I can say what I think about buyers, but...
G Q: There's anybody listening who would be willing to sue for slander.
Eric Rubin: Yes. I don't know. unless I'm sure they're
G Q: Come on in here, Starling.
Eric Rubin: ah i would I would hope that they... take these buyers very seriously when they use them and they make them. But so often they're probably again i don't really know too much what i'm talking about so i'll try and couch it a little bit but i don't take buyers like life and death numbers for so many reasons even if they're accurate as Accurate as they can make them or any speed figure i'm not knocking buyer over any other speed figures
Eric Rubin: It's just like... What if they crawl early and you close and you finish? What if you ran 10 seconds the last eight mile, which is incredible? but they were crawling up front. And so you're still not going to get a great buyer, but if they were going fast or early.
Eric Rubin: You might not have finished in 10, but the final time of your race would have been a lot quicker. You get a runoff in a race that runs 22 and 45 going a mile and an eighth. the final ten Yeah, he's going to tire or whatever, but the final time of the race is probably going to be quicker than if they go 49 or 50 seconds to the half.
Eric Rubin: And. I just, so there's reasons to not just be married to speed figures. Plus Everyone is betting speed figures. I mean, I literally sit next to people. They're not really in my crew per se, but I sit near people who I'm friendly with and they're nice people and they mean well, but they literally sit there. They don't.
Eric Rubin: handicica They get the program that shows the last, like a little OTB sheet that shows the last three raised buyer figures, and they're betting off of that. So like you're not getting any advantage by betting. speed figures. That's why I look for the horse and I'm not alone. A lot of people do this. I look for the Speed figures, okay, the horses that... ran better than the speed figure look based on trip or class or whatever it was. And.
Eric Rubin: Vice versa, horses that... have speed figures that maybe look better than they are based on the way the trip was and all that so uh i don't know what they do so I'm sure, ah again, I don't want to say anything that's wrong, but they they probably tweak buyers.
Eric Rubin: You hear all the time, like, oh, we lowered this buyer, we raised that.
G Q: yeah
Eric Rubin: And again, I'm not trying to knock buyers over any other speed it brisnet figures, I don't know what they call them, echo -based figures. It's just the nature of speed figures. It's not a ah perfect science. And if you want it, listen, if you're making money out there, married to speed figures and hit me up because I'm very impressed. I don't know how you can do it. and I'm very impressed with you. but um It's not like I don't look at them or they have me have no meaning or importance, of course.
Eric Rubin: Any data that you can get can help you in making your decision. and It does help, but... So I don't know to answer your question. Did they lower did he really run faster and they lower? I don't know.
Eric Rubin: Probably not. Maybe, I don't know.
G Q: Oh, yeah, that my point was I would hope that they don't. you know it's a true speed figure based on all the races that were run at that distance and the fractions and whatever But yeah. going to get me off on a tangent about speed figures.
G Q: all right Andrew Beyer contributed to the... stupifying of ah a society by inventing his Single digit or not single digit. His one.
G Q: number or speed figure. Whereas... um before Andrew Beyer came around with his speed figures. Anybody who still gets the DRF.
G Q: Off to the right immediate right of where it shows the odds that the horse went off at You're going to see two figures. If they still print it, Eric, I don't know.
G Q: DRM.
Eric Rubin: They do yes
G Q: I...
Eric Rubin: They do.
G Q: It's a speed figure. With a dash and then another speed figure which is track variance based on how the track was playing that day Old -time handicappers used to...
G Q: add those two numbers together to come up with a true speed figure so if you want to entertain yourself and see how close or if there's a difference. In the buyer speed figure versus that.
G Q: Use your second or third grade math and add those two numbers together. for each horse to see. what the old timers would have to do for a speed figure so i digress enough of the uh history lesson
Eric Rubin: So you're you're knocking the guy. You're not gonna guy for simplifying something saying he stupefied side so you want to go back to like the abacus and stuff like that Let's get rid of calculators.
G Q: Simplify, yeah. so Yeah, calculators simplified things. Ever go into a fast food restaurant and pay cash?
Eric Rubin: Thank you.
G Q: Oh, what how much is it? $12 .37. Oh, wait a minute, wait a minute. You give him a 20, then you say, oh, wait a minute, I have... ah 50 cents i can give you and you see the 16 year old behind the counter's head explode because they can't figure out how much change to give you
Eric Rubin: What's cash? What is that, coins?
G Q: Exactly.
Eric Rubin: What are those things?
G Q: My point.
Eric Rubin: i don't know what you're talking about grandpa
G Q: I think they still take that at the track, but who bets at the track anymore, right? but so Oh, gosh, there goes all the track sponsors that we had lined up for. this coming year. Okay. We were... Grossly ahead of schedule now, I think. that that that halftime debate.
G Q: uh put us uh back on track for one hour sorry guys because these next two races are probably going to be the most debated because they don't have Ciao. And this is where I'm sure Eric is trying to find a... ah price So we're talking about race 10 on Saturday at Belmont Park, which is leg four of the late pick five.
G Q: A field of nine have signed on to the Grade 3 Futurity $200 ,000. purse On the inner turf for two -year -olds going six furlongs.
G Q: Uh... The morning line favorite is the lukewarm number three, Good to be King at five to two. Eric. give us your wisdom as far as a price we can use.
Eric Rubin: I kind of like a price in this race, except I think I might have... I didn't mention the horse to you, I don't think. But. I really thought he'd be higher than this. So I don't know if I love... the horse anymore but i i probably still do and i'm hoping the price will be higher and that's the two regions park ah This is Paco Lopez, Jorge Delgado.
Eric Rubin: Horse ran last time at Colonial. I don't know, the Rosie's something steaks. And the horse hit the gate. Was in steady three or four lands. ah When they got in the stretch it was like a merry -go -round. No one was moving and this horse closed very well into that. So I really I was impressed with the race a lot and I upgraded a lot.
Eric Rubin: I guess my fear is what did the horse beat? But if you look, the eight horse, I hope I did this right. Yeah. The eight horse golden Corsair was also in that race. And you could argue you can upgrade the A2 because there really wasn't much of a pace and they made up some ground. I just personally thought the... to run better in that race. And I don't know if has more upside he has more upside or not. I'm not sure. but ah you know, the eight was coming off a 62 buyer colonial. So I don't know if, it was the toughest race in the world
Eric Rubin: And that horse was five to one in the race and region park was 12 to one coming off like. Yeah. Dirt races, well, at least the dirt races didn't look that impressive, but it was a grade three. So I don't know. But my point is, yeah, class -wise, we'll see.
Eric Rubin: but i like the way the two ran and i kind of wanted to keep it two here in this race and I wasn't going to go too deep in this race, but um I'm planning on using the two. Definitely and King. the two in my vertical bets, which I can talk about as well. Uh...
Eric Rubin: go back to you for your thoughts on whether you want to talk about the two or anyone else.
G Q: No, I got excited. I thought you were going to say because Regent Park is second time blinkers. Just kidding.
Eric Rubin: Yeah. Oh yeah. that's That's exactly why I like him. Yeah. You read my mind. Great call.
G Q: I'm really interested just to see.
Eric Rubin: I'm rolling my eyes by the way for those of you who can't see.
G Q: Yeah. I'm... I'm really interested in to see just how this race gets run and and the... 12 -1 morning line, one horse. My kids say no, which is one of two Phillies in here running against the boys.
G Q: I mean this horse Or she, this filly. It is quick from the gate now. She's coming from Prairie Meadows and... Asinobia Downs.
G Q: Tell you. If you're ever bored on a Monday night, and I don't even know what other night they run it at Zenobia, but... It's worth just listening to the track announcer. I forget the guy's name. He's a card.
G Q: Yeah. uh really accentuates his race call so there's There's my tip for a boring early evening. Tune in to Asinobia. downs but yeah uh How's tarp reading? you know uh so should take to the turf And bullet drills all over the place. So who else is going to go out with her? Probably the other filly, the four, lumin Luminous Beauty.
G Q: You got the five cactus. uh closer And that's about it. i Mean you got three horses and we know when there's three speed horses in the race all three aren't going to be out there one of these three will probably be alone on the lead Whether or not you think they can carry their speed I don't know Um, I actually...
Eric Rubin: Well, can I just jump in though?
G Q: Yeah, sure.
Eric Rubin: On that... the The only thing I would say to combat that a little bit, normally I'd agree with you, is if you look at the jockeys on those horses.
G Q: That would be a first.
Eric Rubin: What's that? that i Compliment you?
G Q: That you would agree with me?
Eric Rubin: Yeah, you know, there was a time in 2001, I think it was, or 2002, but anyway.
G Q: I thought so.
Eric Rubin: But if you look at the jockeys, you were saying the one and the four in race 10 are the speeds. My kid says no. And Luminous Beauty, two of the speeds at least. They have out -of -town jockeys who I'm not that familiar with.
Eric Rubin: I mean, more or less I know a little bit.
G Q: So they're not your typical New York jockeys who don't go to the league.
Eric Rubin: right. Clutching, grabbing holes. So they might actually be aggressive. Plus maybe they're like, Ooh, I can win a grade three in New York. I'm going, go, go, go and get excited. And then the other horse has a bunch of speed, not maybe not as much, but...
Eric Rubin: you know, cactus clothes and the five has some speed and you got car motion, aggressive jockey.
G Q: Kendrick.
Eric Rubin: So. uh i don't know there's other the speed here per se other than those three of the main three but My point is that it's not the tip and you said it, it's not the typical. Clutch and grab New York jockeys. So perhaps there will be a pace here. We'll see. I hope there is based on who I like. although the two regions park wired the field. And I mean, it was only four and a half furlongs on the you know dirt, but wired the field in.
Eric Rubin: Her uh his first start they're mixing boys and girls in this race. It's really throwing me off he she But yes, the two regions bark. Could, uh, could show to speed too, I guess, but most likely comes off the pace.
Eric Rubin: So we'll save it anyway. Sorry, I digress. Go ahead.
G Q: No, no, that's right. No. and And right or wrong, i I typically don't like... ah when Phillies mayors run against the boys. other than in this situation.
G Q: when When they're two -year -olds, I'm okay with that because... in the animal kingdom which includes humans females mature quicker than males. And when you're talking about a twoyearold two -year -old ah equine Yeah. you know the the maturity is further along so that's why i i don't
G Q: Say, oh, it's a Philly running against. uh colt i i really don't care when they're two -year -olds whether or not you want to take that uh as something to think about in the future is totally up to you. um But I thought it was worth mentioning. I'll just mention who I like. I like all the way on the outside, Rapolis and Pletchers. pinpoint the nine horse nine to two. morning line.
G Q: I think we're on a really good race. First time, now you know, Kentucky Downs. Everybody just brings it to Kentucky Downs because of the insane purses. and I think god the horse ran a nice race, going an extra half furlong.
G Q: He asked the two today. Ken Gage things from the outside with Santana on board, who actually took this horse to gate the wire. And the maiden went on the dirt two back.
G Q: So... I'll just go with the nine pinpoint. and let you construct the rest.
Eric Rubin: Well, I do like the nine pinpoint that would I guess be my quote second pick about we were making picks here and Though the horse did run well at Kentucky Dan's got a slightly slow start and then got squeezed early two to three wide on the turn and made the first run into what I thought was a pretty solid pace. So I definitely like nine pinpoint, and the two and nine would be my main two here, and just a few other horses to talk about that I think have a decent shot. the three good to be king who is this more i guess the morning line favorite here yes
Eric Rubin: uh she uh he see again messed it up but he was in the same race as pinpoint and actually beat pinpoint by a couple lengths and didn't get shuffled some on the back stretch and while i don't think the race like really big time favorite closes i didn't think it was a decent pace so uh but i thought good to be king run really well and deserves to be the favorite here so The three definitely has ah a decent shot in here. The four luminous beauty we mentioned a little bit.
Eric Rubin: I don't know how much we talked about her and that is a her. But she was up on a pretty strong pace last time. as well. It did kind of hold together, though, the pace a little bit. So the ah she dueled the horse who was five to two who came in.
Eric Rubin: I think third. I should probably look that up because I wrote second, but she came in second, so that's impossible. I should probably double -check that while... ah We go, but... Luminous Beauty. And the winner just had a perfect trip behind her. So I thought she ran well, but I do think there will be some peace in here. so At a short price, I'm not going to include her in my pick five, the four, but I might use her a little vertically. And then the seven horse, Josh Joe, I think has a shot. You mentioned Pratt before, possible winning every race.
Eric Rubin: He was ah at Kentucky Downs as well last time, just a maiden special weight, but I thought it was a solid effort. I can talk you down there and you know now shortening up the six far long started longer. So you're talking about a horse who's definitely going to be coming from a decent amount off the pace, but I think this horse has a decent shot too. And a lot of it will be the pace here. So What am I going to do? and the ah Well, let me go vertically first.
Eric Rubin: So yeah, could I box two, three, nine? And maybe even add in the four seven I could, but it's kind of silly to box that many horses using the favorite, the second favorite, the third favorite. It just doesn't really make sense because...
Eric Rubin: Long term you're gonna lose money boxing, you know four or five horses when the payoffs not gonna be that good You're gonna have to strike it like a 50 % rate or higher. You couldn't even lose money on that, but it comes in like three nine so It doesn't make sense to me to box that many. And even the top three, like two, three, nine. Could I do it? Yeah, but. If it comes in three, nine, I'm barely making anything. and i Don't know I'd rather not make that bet where You know, even if it's a $2 exact box, 239, the three nine portion.
Eric Rubin: You know, maybe to pay 25, 30 bucks, something like that, if it pays that much. And you're like, oh, well, you're doubling your money. Yeah, but. you have to hit it 50 % of the time then be right to to make money long -term. So to me, it's not really worth it. So instead, I'm just going to key the price here, the two. And again, if if I didn't have the three in there and it was like...
Eric Rubin: I like the two and three and maybe the four or the seven. Then maybe I would box, you know, two, three, four, and two, three, seven. Then I can see it, but not with the favorite. So I'm going to cue the two. And what I'll do is I'll i'll do... Again, it doesn't have to be a lot of money that you spend here. I spend, but ah say a $1 Xacta box, two width.
Eric Rubin: 3479. Then I'll do. a dollar exacto box, two with three nine, and then maybe an extra dollar or two, two with nine exacto box. So I'm going to key the two. It has to be first or second there, and I'll have a little more money on the nine.
Eric Rubin: a little less on the three but you know decent and then less on the four and seven because uh even Though their metaprises, I don't like them as much. And same thing with the triple. I'll i'll do two with those horses and a triple. If I use all four of them, two with three, four, seven, nine.
Eric Rubin: You're talking about an $18 bet for 50 cents. So maybe I would leave out one of them. I don't know, but that's what I would do. And again, depending on your budget, I would ah bet more with. 2 -9, so maybe like 2 -3 -9 box, 2 -9 -4 box, 2 -9 -7 box, things like that, and the two to win.
Eric Rubin: Although a 10 to one is really cutting it close there. I'm still okay with it, I guess, but I think the horse would be a little higher than that without, unless there are scratches. I just got to believe maybe a little more I can get. Unless there's a lot of Paco Lopez fans ah coming to New York, but.
Eric Rubin: I mean, the the morning line is pretty accurate in New York, so I'm probably wrong. But I'm hoping. I was thinking 15 -1. I'm hoping at least 12 -1. But anyway, so that that's my bet here. If I was betting... Doubles from last race and pick threes. I probably go to nine here
Eric Rubin: Um, I mean, I could see adding the three if I had prices in the other legs, and I'm kind of leaving out the favorite in race nine, so I could probably add the three, but for the most part, two nine and in doubles and pick threes, and I do have something in the last race I kind of like also, so we'll see when we get to that race.
G Q: okay I just want to point out one. one you know, People always say time only matters when you're serving it. But...
G Q: I thought it was interesting just to point out we have four horses who exit. their last race at Kentucky Downs. We mentioned... the three to be king and the nine pinpoint ran in the same race Uh,
G Q: Their final time at 6 a .m. Furlong's or 7 1 17 and 2 whereas good to be king finished three quarters length behind whereas you look at luminous beauty going six and a half A day later, I know the track can change.
G Q: from, you know, different days, but... We're talking just one day later. Loomis Beauty. A fifth of a second quicker, and then we lost by a neck. Take that for what it's worth.
G Q: Then you have uh the seven just joe A week later, on September 7th, ran six and a half. Same exact final time, but one...
G Q: the race in 1 -17 -1. So just some food for thought.
Eric Rubin: okay well And here's where i don't here's where I don't get to end in.
G Q: Nothing. Okay.
Eric Rubin: So. The one seven they both they all ran like 117 and one the track variant you mentioned that before was basically I mean a little different
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: But not that different. So why should just Joe's buyer be that much lower? Because the track that was 16 compared to 17 or 19 I don't know how they do the buyers of math. Maybe there's... It makes sense, but to me, it doesn't make sense to me.
G Q: so um
Eric Rubin: But I'm probably missing, listen, there's probably an explanation out there that I don't know. So I know I can look stupid and I'm, I'm admitting that I'm not sure here. But I don't get that is right. so
G Q: No, but to your point.
Eric Rubin: Do it. Yeah.
G Q: and I kind of agree because, again, you know, not to be a dead horse, I'm a brisnet guy. I don't know what the... the buyers are But I'm assuming Goodby King's buyer is a couple points higher than both Luminous Beauty and Just Joe.
Eric Rubin: So good to be king on a 74 buyer in that Kentucky Downs race. That's a three horse. The judge Joe who got ah who finished the same time if anything was faster because was three -quarters of a length ahead
G Q: No. i Right
Eric Rubin: ah he I only have 117 -1, so I don't know the exact time, but you know within a fifth of a second.
G Q: Yeah, 117 -1 is all I have.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, they were less than 0 .2 apart
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: uh, got a 65 buyer. So 74 to 65.
G Q: That's crazy
Eric Rubin: Now the track variant for good to be King was 19. The track variant for just Joe was 16. So there wasn't difference.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: are those three enough to do nine points on the buyer when in fact Again, just Joe. Technically, if you take away the track variance, it should have been slightly fit, maybe half a buyer point you know faster for finishing about a half a length or three -quarters of a length ahead or a length ahead, maybe even two buying points. so Again, I don't know enough how they...
G Q: But even more important...
Eric Rubin: Oh go ahead.
G Q: But even more important, what was the speed figure Luminous Beauty got in the track fair? And since that was just one day after... Good to be king. got the 74.
Eric Rubin: So... The four luminous beauty got a 71 with the exact same, uh track varying as
G Q: That's it. Oh, that's insane. that that
Eric Rubin: Not the exact same. I'm sorry. slightly, you know, the track was slightly faster than Good to be King. But yeah, if you do drag Luminous Beauty, the four, compared to the seven, Just Joe, right, they both ran 117 and one.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: One was a neck off. The other tech that time one was on that time. So they have a neck difference
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: The track variant was 17 for Lumen's Beauty, 16. So slightly faster track. for luminous just show but judge joe was also a neck ahead that might offset it
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: And one gets a 71 buyer, one gets a 65 buyer. so According to that, maybe Ben, just Joe, if you like buyer figures, figure it was low. I don't know. Maybe we'll move up just show a little bit, but. again i don't know there's other factors going like there might be run -ups that i don't know about But I'm assuming if it's on the same course, of the same distance.
G Q: Same course, same distance.
Eric Rubin: It's the same run -up, so I really...
G Q: Should be.
Eric Rubin: you know Maybe there were ah the the rails were out one day, they weren't. If that affects it, I really don't know, and maybe that doesn't affect it. So this is definitely not my area of expertise, but it does raise some questions that I...
Eric Rubin: would love to hear answers for. Maybe someone listening will know the answers.
G Q: All right, awesome.
Eric Rubin: But anyway, i'm done if you want to keep going you can but i'm done with that race personally
G Q: Okay, good. All right, so we'll head to the last race the last race of the late pick five on Saturday Belmont Park race 11 is a 1 mile and 1 16th on the turf the grade 2 pilgrim steaks quarter of a million dollars for two -year -olds.
G Q: And there are... 12 signed up to go here. And the... luke luke lukewarm favorite is the 10 4 -1 morning line.
G Q: High official. Eric, ah your opinion please.
Eric Rubin: Well, let's look at the pick five first. So. For me, I'm singling Ray 7, but... The favorite. I don't mean a heavy favorite, but the favorite. I'm going, hopefully... you know, three deep, if I,
Eric Rubin: Choose to do that in the second leg, including two heavy, heavy favorites and the one really heavy favorite one long shot, but. most likely won't win. So I'm one by three and I'm pretty short. Cause you have to assume if I'm alive, it's going to be a two to one and like possibly a three to five. I am trying to beat the favor in the next leg, but I'm i'm not really getting any pride.
Eric Rubin: Four to one, five to one, maybe like the one is five to one. So it's not like I'm getting a huge price there. Chances are if I'm alive through the third leg, which is race nine. I'll have like a 4 -1, 5 -1 range hit there.
Eric Rubin: So if I'm alive... through three. It's two to one. It's maybe three to five or eight to five. And it's about four to one. Then we just talked about the last race. Here's where I can maybe separate because I do like that too at 10 to one in race 10.
Eric Rubin: But I also want to use the nine at nine to two, which is okay. And I'd love to use good to be king. But to use good to be king and then chalked in the last race, it gets a little dicey there. So what I'm going to do in the last race. Even though when you first look at it, it looks wide open. Like to me.
Eric Rubin: I can see almost anyone winning. I crossed out two hordes. I shouldn't say the two I crossed out, meaning I don't think they can win, and and I'll probably look foolish because one of them will win, but the five pass on by, and then and it's...
Eric Rubin: Shug McGee. So I'm a little scared there with Jose Loscano, but, uh, the five and the nine burgers stitch. I don't see either of those forces winning. And again, if you like them please don't get off of them because of me because there are big prices But other than those two...
Eric Rubin: i Can see pretty much anyone winning this race, even though I only wrote eight horses. So maybe there was someone else that I don't think could win too, but I don't want to like. Sit here and go through it all and figure out who I did not include well I didn't include the eight although I think the horse could win and the runner is but I didn't include the eight Who else did I include? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Eric Rubin: Ooh, six, I don't see. Oh, so the six blaring. and vision. who again i don't think the six and eight are out of it but i didn't include them in my top eight if uh i was even going to go 18. so anyway my point is it's a pretty wide open race i think You can see by the morning line, you mentioned four to one morning line favorites. So I think most people are going to spread here. And I'm going to try and catch up for the bad things I did in the other races by going narrow here. and The horse I like the most.
Eric Rubin: Is the seventh stock rising? And I'm a little nervous because these are a lot of... young horses who had one or two races right all day that's the whole card And there's another one who didn't have a great start. And I'm betting a bunch of those. So I realized that maybe I'll have some bad starts. And listen, you're not going to see me on...
Eric Rubin: Twitter or anything like that complaining about bad starts because I understand what I'm getting into. It's when you bet a horse that had eight starts in a row with never a problem, has a bad start, and then you know closes like a maniac into a slow pace and lose my neck despite having the first bad start of his or her career. That's when you get upset. Not this time. But anyway, the seven stock rising and slow start was then squeezed back. sorry uh i can't read what i wrote so i kind of got confused there squeeze back some so it wasn't like terrible i write some when it's not terrible with two to three wide
Eric Rubin: and I thought closed into a paceless race. So I was impressed with the seven. like I have a huge plus sign. I didn't write two or three pluses, but I made the plus really big, which is the equivalent of like a double plus for me. So stock rising, the seven, I liked a lot here at 10 to one.
Eric Rubin: The other horse I like a good amount is the 12. Let him know. ah The 12th was Let Him Know for Whitworth Beckman. I hope I said that right. With Edgard Zayas aboard.
Eric Rubin: And... This is a race where I think, and I hope I'm right. But I think DRF... Has the configuration slightly wrong I could be wrong I think this is a shoot, though.
Eric Rubin: Don't they have a shoot going on? I know it's a new Belmont, so I could be wrong. I don't think they actually start on the turn like the Wilton shoot, like the picture is. Does yours show it more like a shoot?
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: Or are you like on the turn?
G Q: Yeah, it does Yes it does.
Eric Rubin: A shoot.
G Q: okay well Well, no, no.
Eric Rubin: Like straight almost in a little curve.
G Q: Mine shows the turn as well.
Eric Rubin: I know you... Yeah, I have to check that out. If it is the turn like that, maybe I don't like the 12 so much. But if it is a shoot, which I thought it was, where ah the shoot meaning like a it's not like a total curve. It just kind of angles a little. So it's more of a straightaway with a slight turn into the backstretch. Then I don't mind the outside so much. If it's like literally on the halfway on the turn and they have a sharp turn, I mean, it's a Widener. It's a huge course. So the turns are not that sharp anyway. but
Eric Rubin: Um, I wouldn't like the 12 as much of this starting on the term, but, um, I, I think it's more of a shooting and it's not too sharp return. So the 12, anyway, let them know, uh, this horse, right? like ah for a couple of times. First of all,
Eric Rubin: Two back, I thought, ran really well. Did have an experienced edge on that field, but I thought it was a race that favored closers. This is on the August 16th race at Saratoga. Was two to three wide on the first turn, was wide three wide on the second turn, and was close to a ah sharp pace there. The pace setters in the two back race were three to one and nine to two, and they faded back to six and seven. So I definitely thought that being up...
Eric Rubin: Kind of close. with a wide trip was good yes had the experience advantage so you have to take that into account then let them know comes back and woodbine in the summer grade one and i know a lot of people probably didn't listen last week because The races were canceled.
Eric Rubin: But when we were talking, last I think it was last week, we were talking about the Canadian exchange rate, where you have to like kind of downgrade those Canadian graded races. So if I didn't offend Canada of last week, I re -offended them. so But no, I'm semi -joking. I'm not really, but i i I don't know the competition, the grade one summer, if it was really good or not. But this is always who lacked room for most of the stretch, I thought. And.
Eric Rubin: I don't know if the horse was going to win necessarily, but I thought ran better than it looks. lacking room on the rail for for so long. And I would upgrade that race. and Well, why wouldn't this horse win? And the speed figures look a little low because two back, there was no buyer in last race.
Eric Rubin: Got a 69, which, you know, it's nothing special in this field. so But I upgraded that race, so I'm kind of on the 7 and the 12 here. I do think the 10 is not bad, and I kind of like the 10.
Eric Rubin: If I was making picks, regardless of odds, the 10 would be my... probably Second or third choice here. Actually, maybe first choice, but the fact that... He's a favorite.
Eric Rubin: gives me a little pause, but it's all going really well. To win easily? First out. On the grass. Then last time. when the grade one hopeful on the dirt so maybe it's not ah he's not a dirt horse It was a ah very tough field.
Eric Rubin: So I don't mind that race. I just tossed that race. and Looking back at the first race that. Puts him just as good as any of these horse, if not better. so I like the 10 here as well. So for the most part in the pick five, I'm going to go 7 -12. Again, depending on what I do in the other legs, the 10, like if I add the three and race 10, who's the morning line favorite, I probably won't go with the 10 here also because I just don't have anything elsewhere.
Eric Rubin: But with the two last race and race 10, who's 10 to one or higher, then yes, I will be adding the 10 here. There might even be a ticket where I single the seven. and kind of spread a little more, not afraid to use chalk and other legs. So I probably will have one ticket where I am single to the seven here. So if I'm right about the seven at a price.
Eric Rubin: uh i have a very good shot at being alive to that horse so that's another ticket i'll bet And again, I don't spend it for it. I mean, I've shown you tickets in the past or discussed. Yeah, to some people, it's a lot of money, but I rarely spend.
Eric Rubin: three figures or more in a pick five. Rarely, it's almost always under $100. The tickets might... add up to 100 or might add a little more if i really like the sequence or think it's going to pay a lot it's not like i won't go over 100 but you know oftentimes i'm betting less and i'm So.
Eric Rubin: hopefully able to hit for for good odds. So anyway, there's a lot of other words I'd love to talk about, and we can briefly if you want. I know we're getting ah to an hour mark here, but... Those are the main hordes I'm using in this race. I'm definitely going to be betting the seven. I'd love to talk about how, but... Anyway, I want to throw it over to you for your comments before I wrap up with some betting stuff here.
G Q: No, i the horse I really liked was the 12 as well. that Let them know. i I was impressed with that last race, even though it was just a fifth. Fifth play. fifth place effort.
G Q: I... I just suspect that... um either the in race 10 Or race 11. Or both.
G Q: The winner is going to pay in excess of $20.
G Q: It's... Who's going to find that? Horse Because, we're talking again, from the start, we were talking about two -year -olds who can... just mature and get better by leaps and bounds between races and it's like Not finding a needle in a haystack, but still, even if you're spreading...
G Q: Uh... including more than half of the field, you still may may not land on the right one. That's just my opinion.
Eric Rubin: All right.
G Q: I don't need to say anything else.
Eric Rubin: That was it. All right. So yeah, just real quick.
G Q: Because we are at One hour.
Eric Rubin: like
G Q: Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. The hour bell went off.
Eric Rubin: All right. Let me talk about the betting at the end here quickly.
G Q: Yes.
Eric Rubin: I'm sorry i we're going over, but I blame you and your speed figure talk.
G Q: Yes, I know.
Eric Rubin: So there we go.
G Q: Our halftime debate.
Eric Rubin: And that too. and insulting new york breads uh like myself so i anyway so how would i met this race well
G Q: Yes.
Eric Rubin: The other two horses they have high on my list here It would be the one chief of peace. and the 11 dover street i'd rather not get into uh too much talk here about them but The problem with the 11 is the horse can't get out of the gate, I don't think. And I don't think this horse is going to break well, the 11 Dover Street.
Eric Rubin: ah Just stood in the gate some last time and it's been an issue and then got a very good trip. Was not going to go by the winner. But... Held strong for a second like, you know, definitely held up the third place horse And so I think the 11 is fine. I just think not gonna get out of the gate So I I don't love the horse, but I think the horse will run well Uh overall, but I think I have to come from behind and uh, the one horse and said I know I ran Okay, or I was squeezed a little early
Eric Rubin: and Then had a good trip, though, you know, came again after and was extending late. I was impressed with the finish. I don't know what she beat exactly. But anyway, ah he beat. So my point is that. in this race Because I'm using the 7 at a nice price,
Eric Rubin: Again, if I wasn't If I had more prices, I would box maybe three, four, five horses even. not Maybe not five, but I'd box several horses. but the seven let's say the morning line is right ten to one the twelve is eight to one Right. I want to, and the 10 is 41. I'm okay boxing those three horses is like a base bet here. Now, if I add in the one or the 11, you're talking eight to one, five to one. I don't know now. Do I want to box those four?
Eric Rubin: now you're taking away so much of your value. Let's say I box four of them. If I pick like the one or the 11, now I'm at a... $12 bet for $1. And yes, if it comes in like 712, I'm going to make a lot more than that. But Either way, I'm going to make a lot more if I'm right, but if it comes in 10 -11, let's say...
Eric Rubin: You have to figure out what's the price. I don't know what it's going to be. Let's say it's a dollar exact. It's going to be like. $28, something like that. 10, 11. I don't even know if it'd be that high. Let's say $25 and it could be less than that.
Eric Rubin: Like it's just not worth spending $12 to get. $25 back to me. I have to be right on that bet at least half the time, and I'm probably not going to be. I'm not that good. so in this case i would probably key the 7 but i'd also probably key the 12. so i do 7 width and then a bunch of horses with the seven. I do the 12 with a bunch of horses, $1 bets. And I.
Eric Rubin: box seven, 10, 12 extra. So I'd have them together more. And those are in exactors and that can get expensive doing that in triples, keying the seven with like three or four horses or five horses and the and then the 12 with many horses. So in the triple, I'd probably just single ah key on the seven there using the 12.
Eric Rubin: and the 10 definitely and then adding in the 111 and Other horses to consider in the two, three, four, I kind of like. We're so long, I'm not going to talk about why, but the two House of War, three Kipros and Roscoe Goose, I think are all decent horses here too. And I slightly upgraded or or thought they ran pretty well. in their last races. so It's a lot of words to use there. But again, in the pick five, would I love to go eight deep mentioning the five I mentioned plus those three, the two, three, four? Yeah, I'd love to go eight deep.
Eric Rubin: but it just doesn't make sense to me the way I'm constructing my ticket. If you're beating USS Valor, if you're leaving out two other chalks, uh in other races yeah sure you can do that and that's not a bad thing But for my ticket construction, I just don't know if it makes too much sense. And now you're starting to get expensive.
Eric Rubin: there with ah with only one single. So anyway, that's what I'm kind of doing here. And...
G Q: Hey, so...
Eric Rubin: I guess we went. a little long, but go ahead.
G Q: So...
Eric Rubin: Yeah. Question.
G Q: Okay, so so to recap...
Eric Rubin: Go ahead.
G Q: um trying to figure out your ticket construction. Race seven, you're singling the six. Race eight.
Eric Rubin: And I'm going to do that on every ticket except. The only exception to that is there'll probably be a ticket. where I single the seven in the last race as a price, and I will add in race seven, the two, four, and five. Uh, so i'll single this some but mostly on my main ticket inside. It's going to be single to the six Yes in the first leg
G Q: and Okay. So just to give. people an idea how much your ticket might be. let's Let's just go with... you're singling the six in the first race you're you're using the three and the five
Eric Rubin: I'd like to go three deep in that. Yeah. Three deep. Two, three, five in the next if I can. So that's one by three.
G Q: Oh, so you're on three deep in the second lake.
Eric Rubin: I'm going to add the two on at least one, you know the the main ticket here, yeah.
G Q: Okay, alright.
Eric Rubin: And then when I narrow down, I won't maybe, but yeah.
G Q: Bye. ae And then and in race nine, you like the one, but are you including anyone else?
Eric Rubin: Yes, I'm going to go 167. And I'm thinking about adding the five there. So um let's say three game. Let's go one, six, seven.
G Q: All right, so we go three deep there. in any rate
Eric Rubin: So 1 by 3 by 3.
G Q: Yeah. so in race 10
Eric Rubin: I'm either going ah Well, I'm going to use the two and the nine definitely.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: And then the other, I might add in the three, depending on what I do in the other legs here. And I might add in the seven. So I'm anywhere from two to 40. Let's say two deep. Okay. But it might be a little more. but too deep.
G Q: Let's go 3D.
Eric Rubin: Go three.
G Q: So you said 2 -9 -3, was it?
Eric Rubin: 2 -9 and then 3 -7. I have to debate that.
G Q: All right, so... Just for argument's sake, let's go three deep. and then And then in the last leg... you you're like the seven and you're throwing in a couple others
Eric Rubin: I'm probably, again... Let's say three deep if I add the 10 also. Two. twelve I'm sorry, 7, 12, 10. I don't love that ticket, though, because I have to be too perfect, right?
G Q: So three deep, you're saying?
Eric Rubin: There's no race where I leave some leeway. I'm sorry.
G Q: Sure. Three deep in the last.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, that's where I'm going to start from. and I'm going to see how much that costs.
G Q: ah um I'm just trying to get a gauge for how much to take it.
Eric Rubin: up You know, but like I couldn't go more but yeah, that's that's what I'm thinking so but that ticket I don't like I'm telling you it's one by three
G Q: Take it with cause, that's all.
Eric Rubin: Bye. let's say four Bye. Four one by three by four by four by three. What does that come to?
G Q: Alright, well, I i i did... you i think you're still under 100 because um You did one by three by three by three By three, um... is only forty dollars and fifty cents so
Eric Rubin: See, yeah, i see, I... i Oh, go ahead. See, I don't love doing that because...
G Q: so So you wanted one by three by four by four by four?
Eric Rubin: Something like that. No, my three in the last.
G Q: Oh, by three in the last. I insert flour.
Eric Rubin: 1 -3 -4 -4 -3. I can do the math.
G Q: 13443.
Eric Rubin: 12, 48. seventy two dollars But again, I don't.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I don't necessarily love the ticket because again, I have to be perfect. Like if you're using three every race. It's like, you got to know what you're doing.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: You can't have a race where you screwed up.
G Q: Thanks.
Eric Rubin: So I prefer to narrow down one leg. That's why maybe I'll take a stand with the seven.
G Q: Sure.
Eric Rubin: I might bet one ticket singling the seven in the last race so I can spread more in the other legs. um where I might Uh... Like usually if I don't want to use a favorite I want to spread so like Lace 9, the third leg. If I'm not going to use the 4, I forgot the name of it.
Eric Rubin: Oh, the horse, her, him, I don't know. I don't like saying it.
G Q: Luminous beauty.
Eric Rubin: Libby Lloyd and Ray Sine. If I'm not using that H5 favorite, the answer is maybe I'll spread a little more.
G Q: Oh.
Eric Rubin: I don't want to be perfect. So maybe I'll go five deep or something like that. But that's generally what I'm doing here. on the ticket. And like I said, if I'm singling a long shot, like the seven in the last. Then I'll spread a little more.
Eric Rubin: I won't be afraid to use chalk in the other length. it's still, it's tough for me to say how I'm going to bet like a week, you know, a few days, and it's only two days, but in advance, but I don't want to like.
G Q: No, no. The... Believe it or not, the only reason
Eric Rubin: trick people or act like i'm doing something i'm not doing but that's where i'm at right now
G Q: Right.
G Q: Now the only reason why I went there was because I saw in another video that that showed a pick five sequence but didn't show the cost of the ticket Someone commented asking how much the ticket costs.
G Q: And I'm saying. all right people come on it's his fourth grade math it's you you what you do is you just multiply
Eric Rubin: Yes.
G Q: each one you come up with a figure and you divide it by two because it's a 50 cent bet If.
Eric Rubin: Very good.
G Q: If you don't understand that, then you shouldn't be betting on horse racing, I guess.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I would like to get Either another single or a narrow one race and go a little spread in another. But yeah, you generally... yeah covered what i'm planning on doing for the most part and i don't think it's going to be that expensive because if uss valor wins i don't know how much it's going to pay unless i get that two and the seven together somehow
G Q: Bye.
G Q: True.
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: which would be great. But anyway, all right, now we have our longest show since the comeback, but I think it was somewhat valuable, but maybe people won't. I think so but hopefully it was.
G Q: Thanks. Bye. Well, ah thanks again ah for putting all this together. Eric is the technical assistant. you know other Video podcasts have to thank their people behind the scenes.
G Q: The only people behind the scenes who are sometimes in front of the camera is Eric's cat, Starling. But that's fine. Starling. We'll give his opinion, but he's not vocal, so he must like all the horses. that Eric likes this week. Usually you'll hear him complaining about some of Eric's selections. but ah That's all I'll say. Let's get it under an hour and 10 minutes and you can say goodbye.
Eric Rubin: Yes, for our longest show ever after trying to cut. Anyway, thank you all for listening. If you could, ah I don't know, follow the show on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, it helps people follow ah find it.
Eric Rubin: If you want to rate it, all that stuff, we appreciate it. I totally forgot to mention that. GQ, you want to say something else real quick because we didn't go long enough?
G Q: And and and there's there's...
Eric Rubin: Go ahead.
G Q: There's somebody else that we may want to mention.
Eric Rubin: No, I don't.
G Q: EquiBrief carries the podcast as well.
Eric Rubin: Oh, okay.
G Q: so ah Download the Equibrief app and there may be some some other potential sponsor or people. that uh in the future wants to jump on the better betting bandwagon and have their product ah out there available for everyone into horse racing that's a possibility in the future as well So.
Eric Rubin: And for those... For those of you who love the intro music, I'm having some technical difficulties the last few weeks. So we might not have it again, but we'll get it back at some point. So anyway, thanks for listening. Good luck this weekend. Cha -cha!
