Transcript
Eric Rubin: Hey and welcome to better betting. My name is Eric Rubin And I'm here with my partner, Lord King of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ, how be you?
G Q: This week, I am back to being great. Eric plus some. Our football team has completed a rare daily double. We both came out on the winning end this weekend. Congratulations to the J -E -T -S Jets Jets.
G Q: And. um I was very, very ah negative on my Ravens' chances on Sunday night. but Snoop, our backup quarterback, came through. and i thought I just thought Atlanta would run all over them, but we don't need to talk about that. past football stories. right gonna try once again to keep this under uh one hour but um How are you, Eric?
Eric Rubin: I am doing well. We just spoke about my busy schedule before we got on the air, so this is a crazy time for me, but... uh after this we're recording on a tuesday i got to uh go run a basketball workout for a couple hours Hockey game starting at 11. I have to be at work a few hours after that and repeat the same thing tomorrow, basically. So, yeah, it's going to be a fun week. but we ah We push on. We manage to.
Eric Rubin: Get some studying in here. So that's a good thing. And I apologize with the audio here. If the audio is not great this week. We had a little microphone malfunction in my place. so I hope it's coming out okay. I'm sure you can hear me.
Eric Rubin: but I hope it's coming out. okay the audio and we're working on getting the music back at the beginning too We've done a lot of changes to the show. We're continuing. and At some point, we'll get that little intro back. And that was you. Love it, which is...
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: me that's about it and maybe you and that's about it but hey
G Q: i Wait. we've We've lost dozens of listeners because of the lack of the intro music, I think.
Eric Rubin: I think we did, actually, because the numbers have been down the last week or two. So maybe that's why. They're like, oh, they don't have the intro? I'm not listening. But anyway... We're moving on to Keeneland this week. Was there anything else before we... ah discuss the races at Keeneland.
G Q: No, nothing earth shattering happening in the horse racing world, which I guess nowadays is good. So,
Eric Rubin: No major scandals broke this week.
G Q: No scandals. No other things going on. No crazy, crazy stuff. No. forces running it running in the wrong direction causing havoc.
G Q: So, yeah.
Eric Rubin: oh
G Q: All is... ah Well in the horse racing industry, not really, but we'll pretend. It is. So to mix things up, we decided to head on out to old...
G Q: Keen Lin, in order to do our deck of the late pick five looking at the late pick five so uh Keeneland on Saturday, October 17th. The late pick five starts in race six.
G Q: on their 10 race card. Race six is one of Eric's favorite types of races. ah maidens who Out of the...
G Q: 16 who signed up, luckily enough, only 12 are going. um only two actually have made it postward. uh and uh Apologies to anyone who really...
G Q: leans on the morning line. I have no idea who makes the morning line, ah if they use AI at Keeneland, no.
Eric Rubin: I think it's Nick Tamaro.
G Q: Kirk Becker, maybe? yeah oh Oh, Nick Tamarow.
Eric Rubin: i'm Pretty sure it's Nick Tamaro, but...
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: I'm positive
G Q: So, you know, who knows? Maybe I'm as good as Nick Tamarow. But ah but i I did it quick. I really didn't do the math. You know, there's a... there's a calculation and a formula that has to come up with certain numbers and Mine seem to be pretty heavy, meaning...
G Q: I'm making the odds too low for everybody. so ah Without further ado. We'll throw in my opinion on who I think will be the favorite. and Maybe we'll touch on some other prices.
G Q: And by the time everybody listens, you already have the real morning line, so you won't give a shit. so uh We'll start off with race six at Keeneland on Saturday.
G Q: I made ah the three horse decimation. One of the two have... who have only run as the three to one morning line favorite. As I said, 12 will go postward.
G Q: It's a... yeah $400 ,000 purchase trained by Steve Asmussen. written this time by Luis Saez. um That's who I made the morning alliance, not necessarily who I like.
G Q: Eric, I can touch on some other horses. ah before asking your opinion, which I know you have. I'm being sarcastic because Eric hates.
G Q: first -time starter races. uh but uh no go ahead you you take over
Eric Rubin: Not totally true, but... Well, it's not totally true in New York I kind of like them this summer because they... posted a lot of the workouts you can watch.
Eric Rubin: And when you can watch the workouts, it's not perfect, but I feel like maybe I have an edge because I'm watching something other people aren't. So I didn't hate the first time starter race as much, but generally speaking.
Eric Rubin: When you don't have much to go on, it's a guessing game. I'm not really a fan of it. and You know, one thing with this... Show in general of any podcast really about horses, but our show is I don't want to get too much into like, who do you like and who this, that, because when I'm betting, that's not.
Eric Rubin: I know it sounds silly, but that's not like how I bet to make money. it's more like who's going to take the money and is it worth bending that horse or betting against that horse. and This one is tough. I don't have a strong opinion here, so it might not work too well with that race, but we'll focus on that for the other races, definitely.
Eric Rubin: And the three decimation who you said. will be favorite or one of the favorites definitely one of the favorites i assume i don't think The horse would be the favorite, but coming off a lemon to one last time. I don't love this horse, but...
Eric Rubin: He does have the experience edge on the other so if you like the three that's totally funny shows speed, which is an advantage, especially at Keeneland, I'm sure. but The horse has come up short three times in a row and hasn't really been up on blazing paces exactly. So to me, decimation is.
Eric Rubin: somewhat vulnerable here but he is a favorite so if the three is a favorite i would probably bet against source but again it's a lot of guessing game here i'm assuming the wesley ward number five will take a lot of money if nothing else it's wesley ward and flabby and pratt and that's the five start the party And I wasn't able to watch a couple of workouts. And it's funny. I went backwards. I watched the. September 30th workout where He was urged to keep up with the horse who only had one race We would come in second in that race.
Eric Rubin: And the time wasn't. um all Well, I'm sorry, I forget the slow time. But my point is that, you know, you mean The time looks good. But he was kind of urged some to get that time and to keep up with the other one.
Eric Rubin: But the rate the workout before that on September 22nd, I have so much writing, it's hard to see. I wrote over it. That's why I'm stumbling. Sorry about that. He art outworked a one -for -one horse. Now that horse won at...
Eric Rubin: horseshoe indie so i don't know how good that horse was but the five horse starting the party did outwork that horse and got a nice time out of the gate so i'm assuming the five's gonna be ready to run show some speed so this horse will probably be ah a decent horse here it's just how short If you want to take another horse that's going to take money is the 11 for Brad Cox.
Eric Rubin: The workout I saw was on October 2nd. And he worked even with an unraised horse. So they kind of worked even together. i think this is 48 and 4 which again i don't i wasn't timing it myself but brad cox does pretty well with these he's 20 with a 155 roi that's
Eric Rubin: two -year -old first time starters i think i did five and a half to six furlongs i kind of when i did the stats i cut out the four and a half and five furlong races because Those are kind of run in the spring and maybe a little different animal and you got to be really precocious. So this is a little different having him set to go a little longer. So he's 20%, which for Brad Cox isn't really that good actually. So I'm not really sure about that, but.
Eric Rubin: uh i can go through some other stats here if you want that i wrote down but i'll throw it back to you gq for a minute and then i'll just wrap up with a few stats and maybe what i would do here
G Q: Right. um and The two horses, obviously, when when you have a Brad Cox. ah first timer and IRAD is going to ride and it's a Vekoma. Vekomas are very precocious or should be precocious.
G Q: the last few years. And the horse sold for $400 ,000. It must have some talent. um It just... the The horse had been working at Ellis Park until recently, and then they shipped it over to Keeneland.
G Q: yeah this horse is definitely Going to take money, as will, as you mentioned, the five horse Wesley Ward's horse. And I think it's... ah Another reason, $525 ,000 purchase last year.
G Q: and When my racehorse is involved, that means there's a couple thousand people who have fractional shares in them and they're all going to bet the horse. So whether the horse has talent or not. it's going to go off at low odds.
G Q: um Other than that, A couple of the maybe outside type of horses that I think might be worth looking at. uh is the Six horse.
G Q: I like the work pattern when when I look at first -time starters. I'm looking at. Uh... six to seven day type of um Workout pattern. Yeah, Mario Gutierrez. Still waiting to break his maiden at Keeneland.
G Q: Um, Brian Lynch does well with two -year -olds, 20%. Uh... And ah the horse looks like when it's... Worked out of the gate. It looks like it's done well, so maybe it's quick from the gate, as I believe the 10 accelerator for Will Morey. might be.
G Q: uh though It's been working on the torpedo at Turf Way Park. um there's some Quick times in the one on October 2nd. uh was a bullet out of the gate as was the one on september 11th bullet from the gate. So I think those two. might show some early speed.
G Q: And I wouldn't since we like to just. mention all horses so that yeah If one of them wins, we can say, hey, we mentioned that horse. Nah, that's that's a dig on some other podcast. But uh... I'll mention Dallas Stewart's number seven horse, Outlaw Joe.
G Q: um Been working well and consistently at uh churchill downs finishing up with a bullet. This one... uh might ah Not sure a whole lot of speed but might might at least ah um B.
G Q: competitive here. I think my my only knock on the Wesley Ward horse. believe it or not, is I think... No.
G Q: He'll do better going long. It's weird. They paid over a half a million dollars for the horse and they gelded him already. So... He must have been a handful. and um I also see that Uh, He missed a work between September 1st and the 16th.
G Q: um the damn confetti was under raced ah This is based on my research. This is her first foal. Shhh.
G Q: this guy must've looked like a dynamite or somebody just, uh, Oh. Kept up bidding my racehorse in order to pay this price So that that's that's just my opinion and I'll just mention the the the other horse the two horse who ran...
G Q: Unfortunately, I was walking my daughter down the aisle Uh... on this day when this was a not no contest at churchill downs Don't know what happened, but... I did look and...
G Q: Must have been well meant because the the morning line on this horse was seven to two though ah went off. before they declared it no contest. at eight to one so Uh,
G Q: Read into that what you will. Um, That's probably all I have to say since I said a lot and mentioned half the horses in this race. If you have anything else to say.
Eric Rubin: Yeah. I don't know. I mean, we're not really helping the people out there. The one brazen cane, John Service, but I had to pick a horse. to bet to win i'd probably bet that horse because i think the price will be a little higher than the three, the five, the 11. So I'm getting a little bit of price.
Eric Rubin: Omaha Beach is a decent sire. Service is capable with first -time starters. uh so yeah i don't i don't have much on this race to be honest side it's a race i'm not looking to bet because it's all guessing to me. If I was playing ah pick five here, I probably will.
Eric Rubin: Bye. If I was bending the pick five for a couple reasons, because we're going to talk about a big chalk coming up. I would probably just try and beat the 3 -5 -11 if they were the three favorites. Only because I didn't love the way the three ran. He's fine and he could win, but I didn't love his races.
Eric Rubin: The five and the 11, while I was able, on the five horse, I said, so part I was able to watch some workouts and one of them was good, but I also saw some bad workouts. So I'm not a huge fan of the five. I prefer the five, I guess, because of the one good workout, but the others weren't great. And, you know, the 11, again, you're just betting because of Cox. And even though Cox is 20%, 155, and Vekoma is very good, 22%, those numbers are actually low for Cox. So I'm kind of would try and beat those three horses and spread with a bunch of them. And you guys can guess as good as me. who those sports would be. And that's probably the approach I'll take. And if one of them is five to one or higher, then I'll throw them in as well.
Eric Rubin: And if I lose, I'm going to pick four.
G Q: now
Eric Rubin: Go ahead.
G Q: Now...
Eric Rubin: yeah sorry
G Q: I know everybody loves to look at Will Pays to get an idea of who's being bet or whatever. Would you do that in this particular case since it's the first leg of the pick five?
Eric Rubin: Yeah, you know what? I mean, I know some people say play the board, see the board, but... You know, if you're playing the ward horse and he's getting bet down, yeah oh, he must be live. You're going to bet him, but then you're getting no odds on him. So to me, it's a little.
Eric Rubin: I don't know. I just don't care. that much about it, maybe a little. If there's like a horse who looks like he should be a long shot and he's taking some money, but he's still. like for example let's say the um i don't know The eight horse looks like it should be a big price, right?
G Q: Seven.
Eric Rubin: Eight horse, big Steve, big city, Steve, in Arkansas brand.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: If that horse is like...
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: eight to one or something like that where you should be like 30 to one not that you should but I'm not saying he's 30 to 1 in his ability. I'm saying that... the betting public's probably make him 25 30 to one and if he's like eight to one now it's like whoa You know, maybe I'll throw him in because you're still getting a good price. Something's up. But just because, like, ah the Cox horse is taking money in two -to -one, it would make me probably play against that horse because... it creates opportunities elsewhere and maybe people know better than me. and They know something or get it in the public.
Eric Rubin: But for me, I would probably play against that. But I understand what you're saying, and people talk about that all the time.
G Q: Bye. um there's this real There's this thing that, gosh, this goes back. 50 years. 60 years, actually. um Whether it makes sense or not.
G Q: When you look at will pays, you just can't look at... The price you know what what what the payoff is You actually have to look at... The payoff.
G Q: As it pertains to the horse's morning line, that is if the morning lines are legit. and you can rely on.
Eric Rubin: They're not here so it's pe Yeah.
G Q: you know there There may be two horses that... For argument's sake, say there, ah you know, one one is $100 for the double and another one's $120.
G Q: And you'd automatically say, well. you know the the money's on the hundred dollar one Well, maybe the $100 one is three to one morning line and the one that's paying 120. He's 10 -1 more in line.
G Q: That tells me that there's more that that. the tender one is more live than the other, you know,
Eric Rubin: that That tells me that the morning line is probably shitty because... It is. And I'm not trying to rip on the morning line here or whatever. I'm just being honest. I'm ignoring the morning line other than maybe it affects some people's betting.
Eric Rubin: But like if that's New York, I understand what you're saying because the morning line is very good.
G Q: Now again... yes
Eric Rubin: But here it's like pointless. so i i'
G Q: Now again, this this this kind of angle happened before. um The internet. Or let's let's back up even further. Before CAWs, the internet.
G Q: DRF formulator um cell phones. Uh... Push button phones! You get where I'm going. I mean, there was rotary phones. This was.
G Q: way back.
Eric Rubin: I'm not familiar with one of those.
G Q: Yeah, right. Nobody knows what a rotary phone is. But you know what I saw? Not to not to digress. Talking about going retro. Somebody came up with a mechanism. where Yeah, yeah.
G Q: You plug it into your cell phone and it's the old telephone receiver. yeah You hold it up in order to talk. people you know it's kind of like
Eric Rubin: it's very practical
G Q: yeah Very We're going back 40 years in time. um But, okay. so uh yeah we took 15 minutes on that one race so we're
Eric Rubin: that we don't really care about too, so that's great.
G Q: Yeah, right.
Eric Rubin: and
G Q: the The one that we had nothing to go on, we used 15 minutes.
Eric Rubin: Speed it up.
G Q: So we'll move on to leg two. Keeneland Saturday, the 17th, October 17th. race 7 It's the grade three Perryville Stakes.
G Q: for three year olds And I had a hard time coming up with more line favorite being sarcastic. All you have to do is look at the 12 horse deep flame.
G Q: And I made them. Seven to five? You thought he should be shorter?
Eric Rubin: I think he'll go offshore, yeah.
G Q: Okay. Well, um I just make morning lines. It's up to the people to follow suit, right?
Eric Rubin: Yep.
G Q: i'm I'm guessing what the public will do. But you know what? I don't know. you know because Keeneland. Gets a lot in the pools because of the wine and cheese crowd that goes out there. and people go out there party and so Maybe you know there's more money that goes to...
G Q: non -logical horses But then as soon as the gates open, the COWs take care of that.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and it's so hard. like I've been betting predominantly New York. First of all, I'm from here, and I follow it the closest, so I feel I know it better. but It's just, it's unbelievable after betting New York now.
Eric Rubin: And then trying to bet another track. It's like, why do people do this? Because of these odd changes. and Like they're predictive sometimes. For example, If a horse... is a heavy favor in the double and they're loading and the horse is five to one and you think you're getting five to one well you're being naive a little and it's not your fault It shouldn't be like that, but it is. But you have to realize. that hey this horse is going to take a late hit and go down to be the favorite probably So you have to be aware of that, but you shouldn't have to be. That's the point.
Eric Rubin: And it's crazy Not only that, the exactness change, it's just nuts. And in New York, you actually get the odds that they go in the gate at for the most part. And it's so much better. and when you're making money there's such a fine line between winning and losing and the difference between you know, eight to one to five to one in the gate, even if it just does that. That's a huge thing, I bet. What track was I betting this past weekend? I'm trying to think.
Eric Rubin: Was it? Keeneland they were running it maybe?
G Q: ah quote Was it Indiana Grand?
Eric Rubin: I don't even know.
G Q: No?
Eric Rubin: No, I wasn't that way no, no offy yeah
G Q: No, I think it was Keeneland. Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I think Keeneland, I was betting. Because... When I bet New York, sometimes I like to i have a second track, and I'm betting it.
G Q: No, no, no, no. New York, we had the rain. the the All the rain.
Eric Rubin: Oh, that's what it was, maybe. so
G Q: So there was no racing.
Eric Rubin: Whatever it was.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Really? I don't remember. But anyway, I remember this weekend betting Keeneland. Or whatever track it was. And I had a horse to win. And the horse was like, I forgot the odds, but the horse ended. And it wasn't predicted because it was like the fifth choice in the will pays.
Eric Rubin: And then he got bet down and whatever. It went from 8 -1 to 5 -1. I don't remember. I just remember being upset about it. I don't remember the specifics. And I'm like, you know what? If every... Of course, I bet 8 -1 went off at 5 -1.
Eric Rubin: i'm losing money this year probably like i can't you can't make money it's hard enough anyway It's just ridiculous. so I like to have a second track, though, because when I advance study and I sit there, I like to have time to bet. So I'm looking at the raise in advance so I can just sit there between races and think how I want to bet. It takes me a good.
Eric Rubin: 10 minutes to think about it and then five minutes to get my pets in or a little less than that but my point is And that's usually what I do. But unless I'm at the track where I'm talking with people and having fun and relaxing, I like to have a second track where I have an option to play some other races. and Keenan is probably the second tracker to bet in New York, but these odds changes are nuts. But the morning line.
Eric Rubin: To me, it means nothing there. and I wouldn't worry about it. I know I went off on a tangent there. but The 12 horse I think is pretty tough in this race, and that's Deep Flame. And the horse won two races going away.
Eric Rubin: Very easily broke his maiden at Churchill, so he's run. down in Kentucky. He won he came in second at Keeneland, but ran a pretty good race there as well, so he's done okay on the track. and then after uh he won the maxfield grade three by five lens easily Comes to New York, the Allen Jerkins, takes on Englishman.
Eric Rubin: And I wouldn't say he dueled with Englishman at all. He sat. I would say well off the Englishman, but, you know, he sat a couple of lengths behind the Englishman, which was wise, probably playing for second, to be honest. but ah The horse ran really well. If Englishman was in the race or it's where one by seven lens.
Eric Rubin: I just think Deep Flame, if he shows up, is... a very likely winner here, more than 50 % chance to win. and So even money, four to five, whatever is going to go off, I think he probably wins. And it's not a horse I'm looking to beat. Usually I try and beat favorites like this. and yeah I'm not really looking to beat this horse. and
Eric Rubin: I'm just going to single this horse and pick five, which I know makes it like a pick four. And if you can beat him, like we talked about a horse last week, when I'm scratching, but if you can beat deep flame, you're going to get paid. So I can understand if you want to do it. I just, I don't see the chink in the armor. Like I'm looking for any excuse.
Eric Rubin: And I just don't see it. And I just don't want to waste $90, $100 on a pick five trying to beat a horse I don't think is going to win. If I had any knots, the distance, the this, the that. and then I would try and beat him, but I don't. So I'm going to single the 12 and vertically.
Eric Rubin: I'll probably play this race vertically, and I'm going to try and beat some of the second and third choices, and I'll get into that. but GQ, did you want to add anything about the 12 or anyone else in this race?
G Q: Yeah. My only... question is is the 12s are early speed or it doesn't necessarily have to be but i mean there are at least From what I see at least Four others who...
G Q: are going to be out there. trying trying to quicken the pace. uh that doesn't concern you because you just think deep flames that much better than any of the other speed.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I mean, it does appear to be pace in the race, right? You got the four horse, who's a... A real speedball coming in from California. Roscoe is brother. You got the one. Solitude Dude has some speed.
Eric Rubin: From the rail might go.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: have the Five horse as well.
G Q: Five.
Eric Rubin: Yeah. American man. I might've missed some, but so yeah, you could have a lot of speed. Again, if you think this horse. needs to be on the lead and that's a chink in the armor and go against him, but I mean, I don't see why the horse, especially with Irad, why can't the horse sit?
Eric Rubin: I mean, he hasn't sat...
G Q: well And know on the fly outside, he can see exactly who's going.
Eric Rubin: great that we did it.
Eric Rubin: Right, and you've got plenty of time to return, and it's Irad who's patient. like I just think this horse, if he wants. could sit a little off the pace. I don't mean this is where he's coming from six lengths out or anything, but I mean, the horse was.
Eric Rubin: Never really closed much. It was one length out. To break his meeting, so... He passed the horse. That's the point. As long as he's short, he can pass the horse. I don't think that's a knock for me. I think he can make his own trip, but you're right. Maybe that's a chink in the armor if you want to go against him, but I don't think it is, but I can see how people thought that. Oh, I think that.
G Q: ah I'm wondering if everybody who was on Chief Wallaby's bandwagon leading up to the Derby have finally jumped off.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, now you're getting a price though, but these are worth you.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: We've talked about on this show, I think twice already, and we were against. both times and both times did not win. Last time, Chief Wallaby on September 19th. they They put him down to an allowance race, granted against older horses, but still an allowance race where he was a heavy favorite.
Eric Rubin: The horse got a perfect trip. Until... About like late on the turn top of the stretch kind of had to wait a little bit But then when free, it was outfinished anyway. And I think this board is just going the wrong direction. so Again, I can see if you like Chief Wallaby, you might get four or five to one here where you've been taking really short prices. but I'm going to try and beat Chief Wallaby, and that's going to be key to my betting this race. I'm hoping Chief Wallaby takes a lot of money. and then I'm right that he's not going to run in the top two or three.
G Q: yeah i mean he he still hasn't beaten winners i mean he's one of uh there's one other horse in here the Seven horse, Mo Coco, who I think will be about 30 to one.
G Q: they're They're the only two of ah a only their maiden win. Now, obviously, chief will be. jumped in the deep end early in his career, but still. Um,
G Q: mm -hmm not going to take that kind of price on on this horse when there's others that are well more established I'm giving a ah little look to the two horse trouble calling.
G Q: uh as i mentioned if you look back on valentine's day this year at fairgrounds eight months ago Wound up beating Deep Flame handily by six. Six and a quarter lengths.
G Q: I don't know why. i I don't, I don't see dialed in. I know in the mischief line has, has turf in it. So I guess that's. I guess they figured where else to go.
G Q: Except try the turf. He's been... Doing well with his turf starts, but here he is back on by the dirt. if We can return to that dirt form. um maybe he'll He'll have... ah something to say about he he needs a a pace because even though he shared speed in his last race on turf I think.
G Q: he'll uh just come off the pace And maybe Saez has a banner day. So. um I will reluctantly... um Try to beat. deep flame with trouble calling.
Eric Rubin: All right. Here is kind of where... I was talking earlier about You know, I just hate to come on here and be like, all right, this is where it's like the most, this is where it's like second most, and this is where...
G Q: because things change.
Eric Rubin: Not to you at all, please.
G Q: scratches and all that other stuff.
Eric Rubin: It's fine, especially if you're picking a price, but uh and giving someone a price to think about but it It's... So that's not how you win necessarily money by, oh, this one, right? It's how are we going to bet it? So if I'm betting deep flame on top. where I think Deep Flame is going to win.
Eric Rubin: The way I'm going to bet this race is if I don't like the next choice or choices. So that's how I'm going to play this race. I'm going to try and beat the next favorites. Now, we're not 100 % sure who they are, but Chief Wall will be amongst them.
Eric Rubin: Uh, you mentioned, I didn't think you'd be that short, but maybe I'm wrong. You mentioned the four Rocco's brother, Roscoe's brother, if he's short. Like you were saying something about four to one.
G Q: Five to one, I think. I think i mean, i was his his two races, he got huge figures.
Eric Rubin: But all right, maybe five. one
G Q: Maybe that's Del Mar, maybe not. but i Mean he got I don't know about DRF, but he got huge figures um
Eric Rubin: Yeah, no, he has good buyers and on and he'll take money don't get me wrong But my point is if he's like amongst the next favorites after you know basically other than the 12.
G Q: Okay.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: I'm going to play against him. And obliteration, the 11. i'm going to try and beat that horse too i can see like if i'm playing against deep flame This is where the handicapping and the betting kind of converge. Like if I'm betting deep flame, I'm going against obliteration of the 11. Two back, granted it was a grade two race and all. but had a perfect trip. I had to wait a little bit on the turn, but I don't think it really... change things. It wasn't a ton of pace, but I thought he had a really good trip that day. And again, maybe I'm wrong yet away, but.
Eric Rubin: To me... If I was dibbing the flame, I'm like, you know what? obliteration. I'll give an excuse, but since I have Deep Flame, I'm going to go, I don't want the second favorite, so I'm going to go against that horse. So I'm going to try and beat the 11. Try and beat the three. I'll probably try and beat the four if if that's an option. Again, the four is seven or eight to one. I won't, but...
Eric Rubin: And then Solitude Dude, depending on the price also, maybe try and beat that horse. This is a horse who... Ran much better than it looks in the Woody Stevens. That was an insane pace there. So the next race is Saratoga to Amsterdam. I probably like this horse.
Eric Rubin: and kind of came in second there by a head, got caught by local knowledge or got beat by local knowledge in the Amsterdam grade two, the race that obliteration was in. Put up a 103 bio.
Eric Rubin: It was very impressive. Now, I don't know what happened last race. I had a perfect trip. The only thing is maybe Charlestown, the two turns for the one solitude dude. Didn't like that. I mean.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I'm not sure, but so again. Here's where If I was betting against the 12, I'd definitely use the one. I'd say, oh, Charleston, two turns. Let's see if we can give them a little leeway. But because I'm betting the 12, I'm looking for reasons to knock the next choices, and Solitude Dew will be amongst the favorites. so I'm gonna try and beat this horse.
Eric Rubin: If... So, therefore, I'm going to go against the 1. I'm going to go against probably the 4. I'm going to go against the 11. if they're short prices again pick five i'm just singling the 12. so in my other best what i'll do is i'll do 12 with
Eric Rubin: and I'll do a bunch of horses, probably five or four horses, maybe even six, where I'll put the 12 on top. I'll probably box it for a dollar just in case a 12 comes in second and exact as in triples. I'll put them second. But mostly I'll have the 12 on top with these other horses, and hopefully I can beat those next favorites. And I'll use your true true trouble calling and definitely going to throw in the 6, Dr. Kapoor. This is actually a horse who I was with you. I don't know if you were with us at the time. You were probably on the set.
Eric Rubin: Antimonion. But I was at Timonium with our friend Tom. We were in the... ah little simulcast restaurant room there.
G Q: Two back.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: at sa
Eric Rubin: I watched... Dr. Kapoor win. I do not believe I had him that day. And I was so impressed. He just shot up the rail and I was very impressed. Now, I want to bet him back. I was like. I gotta to remember when Dr. poor runs.
Eric Rubin: And then he ran in parks, which I don't bet because, and he tracked it as a. Jackpot pick five. Forget about the rest of the insane takeout, but jackpot pick five. thats I mean, that's beyond a pick six ripoff. That's even worse. so uh i don't bet those tracks as my little boycott stand so i don't bet parks but I didn't even watch the race. So Dr. Port came in second.
Eric Rubin: And I didn't watch the replay. it was a fast pace and set up for closers so that was an aid an edge But this horse was really flying late. Again, do I love that sport in this spot? I don't love him in this spot, but there could be a lot of pace.
Eric Rubin: I'm trying to play against everyone, all the favorites except the 12. So unless that, of course, ain't a lot of money. I will use that. So that's kind of how I'll play the this race. 12 with the two. with the six and i'll throw in a few other long shots And the one.
Eric Rubin: 411 134 11 I'll leave out unless they're like six to one or higher than I might throw one of them I'll probably throw one of them in
G Q: So... When you have when you'd like and you have a horse that you're you're predicting is going to be even money or less You said you'd Pee him.
G Q: On top of some other price horses, but then again Then you said you... also box as well Don't you find that even though you might have a 20 hour horse win As long as that even money is in the trifecta.
G Q: The fact that we really isn't going to pay. Has that been your...
Eric Rubin: Well, here here's my point. So let's say this horse, let's just say, I think it's gonna be short, but let's say he's even money. Okay. And I use a bunch of praise with them all. like 8 to 1 10 to 1 or higher
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: And let's say it comes in. 10 to 1, 12 to 1, even money. And I use those words under him. And for you. 50 cents in the triple that would have cost me maybe a $6 bet or something. I don't put them on top. like to know Again, it depends on your budget. If you're only betting $6 on the race, yeah, put them on top and you know that's it.
Eric Rubin: but for me i would do that i would even if it's like three or four other horses Depending on how much money I'm spending. There's a chance I would box those hoards, say four hoards for a dollar in exacted. That would cost 12 bucks. But if they're all double digits, it comes in, I'm going to make a fortune.
Eric Rubin: But I only do that if I'm betting enough for him on top and it makes sense. If I'm keying him on top for like eight bucks or something like that, over four horses, right? So what's that, $32 exacta? Right.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Eight dollars the cheapest one is gonna pay 15, 20 for a buck, maybe more. So yeah I'm collecting well over a hundred bucks. So I might waste $12. Do you want to call it waste? Unboxing those other the four long shots. just for the minimum, a dollar or if it's triple 50 cents.
Eric Rubin: So if he runs out of the money and I'm right about the second, third, whatever favorite. Then I'm going to score a huge thing. so I might do that, but it really depends on what the potential payouts are and how much I'm betting on the race. And again, it depends on everyone's budget out there, but if you're only betting, you know, six or $10 on the race, you're probably not. Definitely not doing that. In general, though, I try and beat the favorite and leave him out totally and just. Box the other horns if I have to. But in this case, I'm going to try and beat the second, third, maybe fourth choice.
G Q: Again. Thanks.
Eric Rubin: I hope that answered it. but
G Q: Yeah, no, no, no, it makes sense All right, so ah onward and upward, leg three at Keeneland on Saturday. Late pick five would be race eight.
G Q: It is a model 16th on the turf. ah for Phillies and Mayors. It's an allowance for non -winners of three other than... and um Ten have been entered. I went with the three horse here, the queen. as my ah five to two morning line favorite.
G Q: with, uh, um the eight she's looking lucky as uh the slight second choice it's seven to two eric um we We talked prior to recording this.
G Q: um I went a little high, a lot of high on the 10. Originally, I had this when much lower, but as you pointed out, Ran third at Del Mar in a grade two. It's going to take.
G Q: take money and Uh... the horse that ran second thought process came back to to win I've... I think I actually saw that race one night watching Del Mar.
G Q: And one pretty convincingly. so Uh, Yeah. but I'm assuming that's the horse that you like, no?
Eric Rubin: Yeah, there's there's three horses I have interest in here. I'm going to try and get through the pick five using three horses here. Unfortunately, they're not long price one of them will be a little bit of a price but they're probably gonna be a little short prices But I think.
Eric Rubin: i mean In my opinion, one of those three is is very likely to win. And I think a lot of people look at this race and and possibly spread if they can here. because I think a lot of people will probably spread in the first leg. I think in resects. In race seven, I think this is why beating Deep Flame would be huge. because i think Most people, I got...
Eric Rubin: an earthquake over here or something going on. Anyway... Heh. okay Place is not destroyed.
Eric Rubin: I don't know if that came out. I guess it did because you're laughing.
G Q: Yeah. See, either earthquake or hurricane starling.
Eric Rubin: but
Eric Rubin: Yes, I have. The strongest cat in the world, by the way. so This cat can literally knock a 30 pound item off of a counter. And I think he just did that. So there's a dent in the floor.
Eric Rubin: so i better make money this weekend to pay for it but anyway getting back to this i think people We'll try and spread some here because I think the fourth leg is pretty chalky. They won't spread much. Uh, so I think they'll try and spread, but it might be hard, but I started to say Reese.
Eric Rubin: 7 the second leg with the big favor deep flame It's hard to get a single so that's gonna be the universal single That's why it's so valuable to beat that horse. I'm not gonna try this time, but you know if you can that's great anyway so In race eight, yeah, the three and the ten will be two of the favorites here, or the two favorites maybe. I know you didn't agree with the ten, but I think.
Eric Rubin: He wrote me or she wrote me The three, Hear the Queen with Irad. This is a horse who was running last year. down at Churchill, then went to Fairgrounds. This is a...
Eric Rubin: Third level allowance against three X was in one X broke. broke his one, not only his one in Churchill in November. Came back in the, I should know the name of that state, but the Pago something at fairgrounds.
Eric Rubin: won that overnight state. So that kind of counts as. her non -winners of two victories.
G Q: Two.
Eric Rubin: pretty well in that race. She broke out, bumped hard at the start. And then they got a perfect trip, but that start was a little rough. and one really easily you know it's only a length but one easily comes back off of the layoff ah Save ground.
Eric Rubin: And had a pretty good trip last time, but it was Kentucky Downs, which you know I can excuse anyway, and it was a long layoff. so and and we know not to take those buyer numbers or speed figures from uh Kentucky downs very seriously ah with the timing issues they have. So I'm not worried about the buyer there. So I think the horse second off a layoff will run pretty well. If I left out one of the three, that's the one I would leave out if I only went too deep.
Eric Rubin: uh you want me to keep going about the other two or you want to go
G Q: Yeah, yeah. yeah just
Eric Rubin: Okay. The tenu, I'm afraid, is another one of the favorites here. Hopefully not too short. but but i thought the source might be the favorite actually you thought a little longer but
G Q: Well, the the only reason why I kind of balked was based on the fact that ah she was 24 to 1. when she ran third in that race and was 10 to 1 when she one. on the turf at Delmar in July.
G Q: i Regardless of how well she runs...
Eric Rubin: Yeah, well.
G Q: ah i I can't bring her. way down to be like the favorite or second choice. That that was my only reasoning.
Eric Rubin: Well, I mean, that was a grade two race, you have to understand too, right? I mean, that's much better than these.
G Q: I was also at Dalmar.
Eric Rubin: So like a grade three.
G Q: not like Not unless they had a lot of ship and win. contestants in there.
Eric Rubin: No, that was – I'm not going to go back through now. I think that was a – you know somewhat decent field here but compared to this much better
G Q: Well, like I said, the the horse that ran second came back and and ran for one for fun. I think, in ah in a stakes race thought process.
Eric Rubin: Well, there you go, i' ah I'm actually looking I didn't want to stall the show anymore, but I'm looking what race is this race 8
G Q: This is Ray C.
Eric Rubin: All right, just looking real quick because I did not write it down, but I have it here.
G Q: Yes.
Eric Rubin: So thought process. who came in second to the 10 bohaca blessing i guess how do you say that i made her spanish uh came back to win a grade two rodeo drive at four to five
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Over at Keeneland, just looking at some of the other horses, though. ah The win of Maduro. I mean, these are horns that were like running 90 plus fires. Maduro, by the way. Lost the grade one Jenny Wiley by less than a length.
G Q: Hmm.
Eric Rubin: in April at Keeneland. So it was a legitimate field. She ran against much better. That's why I like this horse. probably the most, I'm just afraid of the price. But... The Tim Bohat blessing. uh one uh a non -winners of two basically there's not one as a three What are non -winners of two other than...
Eric Rubin: I had Del Mar in July, July 23rd, and won it really easily. It was squeezed back at the start also, which... It says lost pass at the start, which is true. it Did save ground after that, so I had a good trip after that. But then was extending it to finish, like, dominating that race. I thought was really, really good there. So much so that...
Eric Rubin: If I was betting down more, there's a chance I would have used during the stakes race, depending on the field there. And came back in that grade two on September. Seven. And I thought, you know, Ren...
Eric Rubin: Okay, I mean... got a perfect trip, and then was shuffled late on turn two and lost some momentum. So better than okay. I thought that horse run really well. I don't think he she would have won the race, but she would have won. run even closer so I think the 10 is...
Eric Rubin: Is the horse to be here personally? The post is probably not ideal, but it's not like... Can't win from there. It seems like they start midway down the stretch, so Louie has a little time to get over. Not a ton of early speed, so we'll be mid -pack.
Eric Rubin: You know, if he gets she gets caught wide, that might be a problem. But, you know, hopefully for her, she doesn't. And then the horse that I want to use at a little bit of a price. And it's really price dependent. I'm not sure. And that would be the five Amber Cascade for Flavien Pratt. A lot of the words are coming out of this Kentucky Downs race on September 9th.
Eric Rubin: If you look at three here, the queen. who had a really good trip in that race, but I'm kind of... I don't say excuse me, it ran fine. But I'm saying, all right, need in the race is going to improve off of that race. Second off the layoff, you're going from – Tyler's very good, I think, but you're going to irate you. Hurts the price, but – you're going to get a really good ride probably. So that horse, I would bet out of that race. Maybe the four horse was in that race.
Eric Rubin: Four horse. for Lebanon or hadn't really. a really good trip in that race i have no reason not coming off a layoff right now no reason why that horse uh, should improve off of that race better than the others. So I'm not really interested there. The five horse, we're going to talk about Amber cascade. You had the seven poppy princess who believe it. And I upgraded that race. The seven pop princess had a wide trip.
Eric Rubin: No impact. on the race but You know, with that Y trip. Probably will do better here, but I still don't think good enough for me to want to use much unless I was paying maybe triples and throwing in prices.
Eric Rubin: The eight horse, she's looking lucky, who you said is going to be amongst the favorites here. Really had a great trip there. So I'm against eight. It's come off a small layoff, but I don't think it's like a layoff that she should improve so much second out now. So I'm kind of against that. But the five horse in that race.
Eric Rubin: Last out Amber Cascade on September 9th. Slow start. Kind of on her own, but then was squeezed back about three lengths. So a really, really bad start. Had to wait. Most of the turn was bumped hard at the top of the stretch really had a tough trip overall. So Based on trip, that five horse.
Eric Rubin: Had a really brutal trip. Pratt's going to want to give that horse a better ride, and he's more than capable of doing it. So I like the 5 here, Amber Cascade, a little bit of a price. So if I had to pick, I think the 10 is the most likely winner. The 5 is a horse, Amber Cascade, that I want at the price. And I think the 3 is a really good shot here as well. So I'm 3, 5, 10 here.
Eric Rubin: And I'm going to try and get through the pick five like that. I know it's not great if I use the favorite last race and using. a favorite or two here. Um, but the first leg I'm going to, I said, I'm going to spread a little leaving out the favorite. So I'm hoping that that helps me. And here it's not going to be like heavy favorites, so it should be okay. Just not ideal. And we'll talk about the pick five going forward. I can talk about vertical too. We're going really slow here. So I want to throw it over to you.
Eric Rubin: And then I'll talk vertical if you want quick before moving on.
G Q: Now, all I'll say is... um ah Your five horse. Price -wise six to one That's what I'm That's all.
Eric Rubin: That's like the lowest I would want on the horse, but you know anything six to one You're probably not gonna get much higher, but I'm okay with six to one or thereabouts I think it's going to be a little higher, though, maybe 7 -1, but we'll see.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: each one
G Q: Bye. Uh...
G Q: I do see. I was intrigued by the two -horse Ontario. has Jose. An Ontario bread coming down ah from Woodbine. Spent the winter at the fairgrounds.
G Q: I mean, the horse always tries, obviously.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
G Q: After that win at Saratoga. Moved up. uh And it was the beaten favorite in that restricted stakes at Woodbine.
G Q: I think with Jose on it might have something to say. ah in here. and has worked well. and came down has come down to Keeneland based on the work on October 10th.
G Q: So I'll just throw throw that one out as a possibility.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, i don't I don't love that.
G Q: um Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I love when people say... The horse. tries a lot or something like that. Because I'm like, I'm like thinking.
G Q: It means he never wins.
Eric Rubin: oh well yeah but no i'm also that's funny too in a way it's like a euphemism for Can't win.
G Q: but
Eric Rubin: but It's kind of like... In basketball, it's like, oh, he's a good kid, you say.
G Q: It's...
Eric Rubin: They go, how is so -and -so on your team? Oh, he's a good kid. You know that means he's not really a really good player. But ah anyway, no, I like when they say, how do you know, I'm i'm teasing you, but how do you know this horse isn't like been as good as Cigar or something like that, but just doesn't try and therefore it isn't.
Eric Rubin: He just likes to jog around.
G Q: It's a follower.
Eric Rubin: so he he try But...
G Q: horses are herd animals and some of them just don't like to pass other ones you know
Eric Rubin: Maybe. Well, this horse I don't think fits that bill, but I'm not a huge fan of Ontario.
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: Could win, but ah the trip two back. uh at the 2x level i thought had a pretty good trip there so um you know
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Wait a little last time.
G Q: and
Eric Rubin: It wasn't anything terrible, but if you like them, go for it.
G Q: Yeah, my my favorite phrase that the talking heads on TV.
Eric Rubin: All right.
G Q: ah talk about when when it's first -time starters that they don't like. and they don't want to say why they don't like them if they really know the horse you know may not have a shot It's like Yeah, it it looks good, taking some money, but I want to take a wait and see approach.
G Q: You know, it's like maybe next time out.
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: yeah
G Q: you know Instead of saying, oh, if it was me, it has no shot.
Eric Rubin: And.
G Q: Court in error.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and real quick, vertically. Oh, real quick, vertically. So if I was betting this race, I really don't want to go much beyond those three horses. So what I would do, I'm not going to box all three if they're favorites. If they're... prices and they're not the favorite. Yeah, I'll box all three. But 3 -5 -10 and Reese ate at Keeneland.
Eric Rubin: But I would probably key the 5, which is the biggest price out of those. If the 10 is close to the 5 in price, then I would key the 10. But I'd probably key the 5. And I do, let's say, again, let's keep the budget small.
Eric Rubin: you know you can do even a one dollar exact box three five or two dollars and then three five and then i probably do more a 510. So I do maybe two or three or $4 box. Exactly, 5 '10". I might box a triple with the three of them also. I probably would do that. And then if I had a bigger budget.
Eric Rubin: I might go. five with three, 10 with, and then add a few more for third and the triple and kind of move that around a little bit. So maybe Five with 310 with a couple other horses. In case 3 and 10 run, only one of them come in, not both. And then five with...
Eric Rubin: uh A bunch of horses with 310 for third. So I might play around a little like that and I can move the five from the first slot to the second. And again, you don't have to like my horses. yeah I'm not trying to convince you. You can slide whatever horse you might like at a similar price in there, and it makes some sense also. But that's probably how I bet the race.
Eric Rubin: uh as far as uh vertically betting this race and you know If the 5 was a decent price, maybe a win bet. If the 10 is like 4 -1 or higher, I'd probably take a win bet on the 10, though, and keep the 10. I just think the 10 might be a little shorter. But if not, then that's probably my horse.
G Q: hey Sounds good. Move on to leg. uh lake four which is race three it came in on saturday and like pick five Seven furlongs for... Philly, three -year -old Phillies. It's the grade two Raven. run stakes uh a field of 12 is due is entered to go postward.
G Q: I made the nine horse Mashallah. Six to five morning line favor. You say... No way, Jose. Even though Jose is not on the horse, Tyler is on the horse.
Eric Rubin: I don't know. this is Heh heh. way, Tyler. I don't see, I mean, listen, maybe I'm wrong. You might be right. Maybe you are right. But I just think there's some other prices here. I think definitely you got the favorite, right?
Eric Rubin: I just don't think it's short, but maybe. maybe
G Q: I had the eight horse conceit seven to two.
Eric Rubin: Thank you.
G Q: uh second choice
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I think they'll be I mean, I think they'll be a little closer, but maybe not I don't know there's There's some good horses in here.
G Q: Alright, so tell us a few of them.
Eric Rubin: All right, well first of all We'll start with the Michelle, who's probably the favorite. This is a race where I don't really have too many knocks on the chalk. So it's probably a race. I might not bet vertically, but, uh, Michelle, the nine horse ran really well, uh, stalked, uh, 11 to one shot kind of dual that horse to last at a five if that matters.
Eric Rubin: uh ran against a few of these and kind of dominating the race. I have no... knock on the race that she ran, going out to seven furlongs from six. I mean, she won easily at seven furlongs, albeit with an easy lead. so I don't know if, you know, maybe if there's a contested pace here. It'll be a little tougher. And there should be a fast pace. and then you have the two nine ten eleven have a lot of speed right i mean the two has a bunch of speed might not be on the lead but The 9, Mashallah, has a ton of speed.
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: The 10. when the kit's a lot of speed the 11 moving nine is less speed so ah It'll be a little bit of a jockey's race seeing who goes.
G Q: yep
Eric Rubin: But I don't have a knock on Michal. The only knock is. a short price and there's a good field and this is not an easy field. If you think about last race. mythical was what 72 against her And in this race, mythical is probably going to be double digit odds.
G Q: right
Eric Rubin: So we're going to much tougher field. That's my only concern with Michelle, but she's run great. She's won three in a row. So at a short price, would I take a small stab against her? Sure. But I still think she.
Eric Rubin: Has a good shot here. The eight can see. for Brad Cox, he looks, ah she looks. Good here as well. Won the Autobahn, I guess that is, at Ellis Park.
Eric Rubin: uh chew back where she chased a a six to five shot who ended up coming in third and she held very well looks like you know She won by, what, three -quarters of a length, something like that, but she held very well. She was not getting past even if they went around again, I think. And then last race that went around well, again, squeezed early a few lengths, was... that Was it a door? Oh, there was a duel, but the duel held. Okay, Explorer.
Eric Rubin: Dueled another horse who's in here, Movie Night. And even though they held. uh you know did get a little dual set up for for conceit that was a tough race for me the um dogwood because you had that big duel But they kind of held, and that first quarter wasn't like ultra fast. But I don't know if there's a run -up. Maybe there's no run -up, so it is fast. So I don't know how to read that race. But, you know, I thought Conceit ran pretty well. I thought it got a decent setup, but between the early start. So I like Conceit, but I don't love.
Eric Rubin: ah I probably prefer movie night a little more if she can get the right trip here. And going to Pratt, at least she can. um Movie Night dueled Explorer last time, and again, Explore held, Movie Night held some.
Eric Rubin: But when you go after the one to four shot in the race. And go. you know, nose to nose for six and a half, seven furlongs and almost hold on anyway. To me, that's impressive. and Being outside, I think if Pratt now going from... And no offense to Axel Concepcion,
Eric Rubin: I mean, he's no Axel Foley, but he's probably a decent jockey. I mean, Pratt is as good as you're going to get. And if Pratt can just sit off the speed here like the horse used to do.
Eric Rubin: I can see this horse doing really well. So movie night is my favorite of the favorites, if that makes sense, the 11. So if I had to pick like one horse. On top, I'd probably pick Movie Night, the 11. And there's one other horse that I'm interested in at a price here. but Now I hear a lot of people picking this horse and I, you gave me your morning line and the horse is not a price. And that is Jose Ortiz on the six Percy's bar.
Eric Rubin: Percy's bar. was running long so i'm not gonna ignore those races but They finally shortened her back up. on August 8th at Saratoga in the grade one test.
Eric Rubin: And in that race, on From what I remember and what... is written on the Naira trip notes and stuff like that, whatever they're called.
G Q: Bye.
Eric Rubin: and it certainly does It was supposedly a dead rail and this horse saved ground on the rail on that day. So if you believe in the bias. and Percy's Bar saving ground on that dead rail. has a closing setup that should be able to play okay here. It's three for ah three in the exact at Keeneland.
Eric Rubin: So obviously likes to track. Last race at Kentucky Downs, I'll totally toss. uh probably not a turf force i guess it was a probably a few million dollar person maybe
Eric Rubin: multimillion dollar purse why not try the horse and if he doesn't like it if she doesn't like it it's like a workout and we'll get her uh to keeneland for the next start it's good timing so i i think percy's bar is a good chance here i don't know how short i want on the horse but um definitely if this horse is like five six to one or higher uh i like percy bar so if you're if you're putting gun to my head because our friend tom likes just hearing picks so uh I would say six to 11 will be my top picks.
Eric Rubin: But I am worried about the 8 and 9. Both favorites are legit. I just... I just don't love the... um the odds that you're gonna get so I'd rather... fish for a price. There's one long shot I'm going to throw to you. And then I'm going to mention one more long shot, maybe how I bet the race and what I do in a pick five. ill I'll do that part really quickly, but one of the horse I want to say, but. Go to you because I'm talking a lot. Go ahead.
G Q: That's right. um I mean, the one one long shot that I think probably ah might be 12, 15 to 1. Is the five yo fancy? uh only three starts Dead deep. closer and If.
G Q: if There is a pace meltdown. Plus... Uh, sort Keep stretching out. the Both six furlong races came up short, broke its maiden at six and a half furlongs at Ellis.
G Q: Decent BrizNet number. Nowhere we're close to... That's all. I mean if the horse continues Or if she continues to move forward, going seven furlongs, maybe she can get a piece.
G Q: Is that not the... price that you were looking at.
Eric Rubin: ah Well, Yes and no. No, that is the horse I want to talk about, actually. Pretty funny. The five -year -old fancy. I just think you're off on the morning line. I think the story's going to be 25 -30 to one. The buyer figures are ridiculously slow compared to these. I mean, she runs like mid 70s and the favorites run mid 90s or low 90s.
Eric Rubin: She's stepping up in class. She's run slower I just, I was very impressed. It's not like the race fell apart last time and she was flying late. And if you get a pace here. Why can't this horse just come flying late? Yes, it has to run a lot faster.
Eric Rubin: but i'm sure the horse i shouldn't say i'm sure i would think the horse is improving um The stretch out, like you mentioned, extra furlong should only help. i just I think this horse has an outside chance here are at a huge price. So that's a horse I definitely want to use in the pick five and in my bet. So that would be my next horse, the five, Yo Fancy. So I'm using definitely five, six, 11, Yo Fancy, Percy's Bar, six, and the 11, Movie Night. And then again, the two favorites, 89. And even the 10, we didn't say anything about. We probably should before we go. Do you want to talk about the 10 or do you want me to?
G Q: Uh, no, you can. No.
Eric Rubin: Well, these horses.
G Q: I mean I... Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Oh god.
G Q: yeah no No, no, no, you you go ahead.
Eric Rubin: You know, there's a word said. Has a legit shot here. coming off about a year layoff, an 11 -month layoff, stumbled out at the start. um You know, Chase, not a fast pace, but, you know, actually was on the slower side probably. chased the pace, so it showed some speed.
Eric Rubin: Got the job done. Probably going to step up second off a layoff. this will and And again, stumbled out of the gate last time, so I would upgrade the last race based on that and the layoff. So this horse has a good shot too. Now it has a lot of speed and maybe gets caught up in the speed duel, but I don't love this horse. And again, the odds really dictate a lot. you know, if the 10 is going to be amongst the three favorites or four, you know, then I don't want the horse, but the horse is like six to one, eight to one, like you think.
Eric Rubin: I think that's what you said then off the air.
G Q: 8 -1.
Eric Rubin: and
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Okay, so at that price, I like the horse. It's like four to one. I don't really care for the horse, but that's a horse that has a chance here too.
G Q: I mean... the the thing is If Machala is going to be... you know, I say six to five, but you think make closer, maybe eight to five or whatever.
Eric Rubin: Meow.
G Q: I mean... The... the The way the odds based on the takeout and all that has to be, you can't have too many horses with low odds.
G Q: You know, like i I have Movie Night 4 to 1. I have Percy's Bar. Nine to two. conceit 702 i mean how many more horses can you have single digit uh it's when you have that many
Eric Rubin: Oh. Maybe you're off on those horses too. I don't know.
G Q: yes ah ah Well, we'll soon find out, but...
Eric Rubin: Yeah. but it Yeah, but... As far as then, so let's even if it's not like this specific race. So there's a race where like the four favorites all look legit. You know, you can't knock him. You do like one more than the other, like maybe 11.
Eric Rubin: uh there's a couple prices or a little bit of price you like you know what do you do in a pick five you're like hey these mashallah can see they can win So you have some options here. If I was going for prices and other legs, I wouldn't mind just using all of them and almost, you know, I hate the term like buying the race, but I don't want to do that just because I have prices elsewhere, but I'm singling up. even money or even less worse.
Eric Rubin: I'm using chalk the race before that. So if I'm going to bet to pick five, I don't want chalk in this race unless I have something special elsewhere. So, and I've talked about before, you don't want to be, you don't have to be too perfect always, right? Sometimes I'll knock out some prices. Let's say I knock out Mishala just too short.
Eric Rubin: And I hit every other leg. and pick five piece, 800 bucks. And I left the source out for an extra 20 bucks. I'll kind of kick myself. So I, I really have to see how the other legs will play out and what I'm doing. But when you like a bunch of favorites or or you think they have a legitimate shot, a lot of times they're all due if I'm not doing something special in the other legs, meaning I'm signaling a favorite, et cetera.
Eric Rubin: I might just say, listen, I'm just going to key a couple of the horses I like and leave out the others and I'll i'll take a swing here. and That's what I'll probably do in the pick five. I'll use that five long shot. I'll use a six Percy's bar. And I'll use the 11.
Eric Rubin: uh movie night a lot of times also just single a horse and say hey if i'm wrong you know i'll just take one swing and it almost be like having a wind bed on that horse and if i'm wrong you know i'm wrong uh but i'll probably use those three the five the six and the 11. And then depending on the odds, if like, if Michelle is what you said, if he's, if she's six to five,
Eric Rubin: Then I'll throw and concede at 7 -2, 4 -1. I'll throw in maybe with a kiss at 8 -1. Definitely. um i would go a little deeper but Any horses three to one or less in this spot, I'd probably leave out.
G Q: Okay. All right, so we have ah two minutes to do the last race.
Eric Rubin: All right.
G Q: 300 hours.
Eric Rubin: Let's do it.
G Q: Too much bantering and other... uh now Stuff I last leg of the pick five on Saturday. It's Keeneland race 10 It's a five and a half furlong turf event.
G Q: fillies and mares, three -year -olds and... Upward, non -word is the one other than. 16 are entered. A max of 12 can go post -word. I flipped the coin on who I thought.
G Q: probably be morning line favorite not really but um i wound up going with the one horse i didn't watch any replays so i'm not sure is it Machia, you think?
G Q: All right.
Eric Rubin: I would say Micaiah, but I probably had the volume off, so I don't know.
G Q: All right.
Eric Rubin: But Micaiah.
G Q: So I got... I got Micaiah at 3 -1. Eh. That's the one horse and the five horse Epic Lady Luck 7 -2. um You can take it from here.
Eric Rubin: All right. So this is a race where. The one Micaiah looks okay here. She's coming off a really troubled trip last time. We stayed into the turn. And not much was closing in the race. So she closed into a pace that was not fast. In fact, a bunch of these come out of that September 27th race. so If... you know to get help with that race i thought that race really benefited front runners
Eric Rubin: and it really hurt closers so if you're looking at the september 27th race you know one thing to do in my opinion would be to upgrade some of the closers or horizontal pace especially if they were able to make up ground like micaiah and downgrade some of the horses that were closer to the pace trying to be so quick that I'm not looking who they are, but a bunch of them.
Eric Rubin: I think a bunch of them were in the race, right? Am I wrong? The one, the two, Cactus Cairo. uh whatever a few more you guys can look on your own
G Q: Yeah, ah The Eleven, Shirley Ann. What was the answer again?
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and and that's why I don't like the 11 because she just had an easy lead in that race. So, you know, I don't know if that's going to happen again. So anyway, betting purposes for this race. Yeah, Micaiah looks, you know, pretty good. And the five, Epic Lady Luck looks pretty good. in this spot. Came off not much of a layoff in August. was a yielding turf course.
Eric Rubin: and Just watching the race. It was a stakes race too, the Galway. Just watching that race, and this is only an allowance, first -level allowance. I... And that was against three -year -olds only, so there is a little difference there.
Eric Rubin: this is ah Oh, these are only three -year -olds too, right? Okay, so it's similar.
G Q: Three -year -olds and up.
Eric Rubin: Right. So the Galway.
G Q: But there's theres there's only two. Two horses, two.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
G Q: Or three three three in here who are... uh
Eric Rubin: All right, and this is Tommy.
G Q: Micaiah, the one's for the eleven shir ans four, four.
Eric Rubin: yeah
G Q: And um the seven is five -year -old mare. I have... 20 to 1. Zoe's. crime. Everybody else is three.
Eric Rubin: Yes. in In the five, so Renault came to Galway, came in second. I didn't even think she liked the turf that was yielding, just running a little funny that day, I thought. So definitely a horse that I'm interested in, the five at Glady Luck. January 8th, that Gulfstream race was like a... you know I upgraded that race. uh had some uh
Eric Rubin: I didn't write down my notes. I'm surprised I didn't write down, but I definitely upgraded because I wrote a plus sign there. Sorry, and I didn't write my notes. So I think Epic Lady Luck has a good shot. the question is do you want to take short prices on these horses and i don't know that i do um a couple words i'm going to try and beat the three assuming they're short prices the three twirling claire These are words who ran against starter allowance last time.
Eric Rubin: And she had an easy lead. Yeah, she won easily. But that was like the only big figure she put up. The other big figure, she had a great trip three back on July 10th at Ellis. so A horse who has an easy lead against a weaker, I usually tend to... Try and beat it at a shorter price.
Eric Rubin: And while the three Toronto Clippers are not going to be the favorite, I don't think. Or maybe with the buyer speed figure she got. She's one I want to beat. And I already mentioned the 11s taking money at at all. I want to try and beat the 11 who had the easy lead. That's Shirley Ann. Like I said, in that race, that ah favorite speed on September 27th.
Eric Rubin: um a couple i'd be interested in maybe the nine paris twilight of the price I know she's coming off a maiden win. But I was pretty impressed with what I saw. I got bumped at the start, squeezed back early. Didn't have a good trip after that, but you know definitely. Got up impressively, I thought. And granted, it's Kentucky downs. How does that form translate? I don't know. but If you're looking at the speed figures, bear in mind that the other race before that. on the turf the two on the turf before that they were as two -year -olds so Therefore,
Eric Rubin: Yana. take that into consideration the numbers were a lot lower based on the fact that she was a two -year -old back then and now she's three she's grown up a lot i'm sure so
G Q: and And you see who she ran right behind in that. uh october 20 uh of 25th at Keeneland. epic Epic Lady Luck ran third behind Epic Lady Luck when Epic Lady Luck was second.
G Q: The three back for paris the nine, Paris Twilight. Now this was ah a year ago, exactly a year ago. um
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I think Epic Lady Luck 5 is probably going to be the favorite here, I would think. so therefore
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: um As far as betting this race. I would Probably try and key the nine if she's double digits, which I think she will be, or close. I mean, you told me a high price. I don't think it'll be that high. But I think you're getting 10 to 1 on this horse.
Eric Rubin: Maybe 8 -1. I shouldn't say that. Maybe 8 -1. Now I keep thinking about him like maybe lower, but as long as it's like six to one, eight to one, I'm okay with it. Double digits, I love it. I love her. The nine horse parrot, Twilight. so Sometimes I'm trying to beat a favorite. In this case, I'm going to try and key a price. So there's different ways to bet. And in this one, I'm going to try and cue the nine. So I would bet the nine with.
Eric Rubin: And I said, I'm not going to use a three. I'm not going to use the 11. So I'll use the one in five and hopefully they're not, unless they're crazy short. So I'll probably try and meet the one in nine. I'll try and use a one in nine with her and I'll throw in some other horses. I don't want to talk a lot about them, but the two cactus Cairo. or she's gonna be a bomb only because She came out of that race with no pace, and she closed a little bit. and ah
Eric Rubin: uh september 27th so i'm going to use the two here Cactus Cairo. I'll probably use the four Petronella and I'll probably use the six horse.
Eric Rubin: I might that really price dependent. Miss JDM. If because she's coming off a really good trip to break her meaning, but she. Did the job, so I'm not totally against her. That's one where if it's like six to one or higher, I'll use a six. Anything shorter, I won't. And same thing on the 12, McCormick's Diva, who doesn't really have much turf breathing.
Eric Rubin: But the horse ran really well at this level on the dirt two -back, like really well. uh dueling a nine to one shot and faded to the back against a decent field here, or really fast -paced.
Eric Rubin: Then they went into the prior rest, which ran against Mashallah, we just said.
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: So she ran. you know and she showed speed against that horse so the 12 on dirt would be a stand down here As long as she's not too short, because I don't want to take... I think she's a very nice horse.
Eric Rubin: nice Philly, but. There's a 12 with Combo Ziva. I just don't want to take too short a price on a horse that I don't know. if she can run on the turf or not she had some workouts on the turf they were not televised I know it's a bullet, but there was only a couple workers that day. i you know So I don't know what to make of the workouts. I guess the fact they worked her and they're putting her on the chart was a good sign. so Again, as long as she's not like a favorite there, I'll use a 12. So I'm going nine with.
Eric Rubin: One. Chill. Four. five, maybe the six and the 12. I know it sounds like a lot, but it's a dollar exact a box. That's going to be like 12 bucks. And then I'll bet more. with the nine with the one five maybe even the 12th surprise um and then more with the nine with the five probably i think is probably the most likely winner And that's all approach. I can do triples. I can key her with those forces. That's a little more expensive, exact as I can key her. And I would better to win if I wasn't alive for a lot of money to her.
Eric Rubin: As far as the pick five goes. I'll probably use. The horns I mentioned. It's so tough to do it beforehand. I'm obviously going to have the nine. I mean, if the one in five, if I feel they're going to be prices, I don't know if them the morning line is really going to help. It probably won't.
Eric Rubin: I just have to go and analyze the other races. If I get the five here, like five to two winning this race, is it worth having them? I mean, it's worth having it, but... Is it worth it? meaning You know for the amount of money I have to put in to add her 20 bucks, 30 bucks.
Eric Rubin: Is it? Worth. winning the amount of money that I potentially could win, knowing that a lot of times I'm going to add towards like this, and I'm going to lose another leg or this leg. you know, so Yeah. i'm not explaining it well If I add this horse, it costs 20 bucks, right? And I only win a hundred bucks.
Eric Rubin: and the pick five pays on it won't pay more than that but let's say it pays 100 right It costs $20 to add it. I get $100. Whoopee, I won, right? But that means I have to hit this pick five one out of every five times.
Eric Rubin: is adding a horse like this worth it i have to do the math and Obviously, item 100 is not. for a hundred is not but Remember, not only does this horse have to win, But... I'd have to hit the other four legs also. So what are the chances of that one in 15, one in 20, one in 30 to hit every leg and then get this horse also? So I have to see a potential payoff.
Eric Rubin: If the potential pay is $800 to add it for $20, it's probably worth it. If it's like $250, $300, it's probably not worth it. Even though at the end you might be kicking yourself saying, hey, $20, I could add $250. But every time you left out a horse like this for $20.
Eric Rubin: You lost another leg or this horse lost. you save 20 bucks each time and it probably ended up to more than $300. Hopefully that makes sense. I'm sorry if I didn't. Did that make any sense, GQ, or you're probably not even listening?
G Q: Yeah, yeah. yeah
Eric Rubin: All right, hopefully it did. So I have to see if it makes sense. But obviously, I think the one in the five has legit chances. I think the five is the most likely winner. I think the nine is the price horse I want. I definitely want to include the two, Cactus Cairo and ah as a bomb.
Eric Rubin: And then I mentioned a few others I would use in in bets. But nothing special with them. i Hopefully. I'm done because I talked a lot here.
G Q: No, that's good. And I don't want to belabor the point on anything else. uh what what all Jump on the bandwagon of you not caring for twirling uh claire is i know time it's hard it's hard to even when it's just a day or two later but if you If you want to look, and Eric mentioned about, there's a couple horses coming out of that September 27th.
G Q: ah race at Churchill. If you look at the times... for for that race compared to Two days earlier, when Twirling Claire... Went gate to wire.
G Q: The fractions are slower because were she was only in there against three other horses, and she got an easy lead, and she was able to just maintain that lead. Obviously, the other three horses didn't have the speed she did.
G Q: So, yeah, on paper, it looks like, oh, she won by five and three quarters, but she was never pressed. and Actually, the final time was three fits slower than the winner's time two days later.
G Q: ah Take that for what it's worth. I just want to. point. point that out. But no. um Yeah, I really like the 12 Vekomas Diva. I think you you might get five to one or... probably a little less definitely has turf breeding interesting another arkansas bred boy you rarely see arkansas breads and we we had two of them in the sequence that
Eric Rubin: Yeah, i didn't I didn't see much turf breathing to disagree with you on that, but yeah.
G Q: Well, I mean candy rides candy rides can always run on turf and um in that first dude bloodline.
Eric Rubin: good point about the octopus
G Q: there There must be turf also because the... Whereas that number comes back strong. uh
Eric Rubin: Oh, well, yeah.
G Q: for turf.
Eric Rubin: i I looked it up. There was nothing, but I don't know.
G Q: yes
Eric Rubin: get some numbers. so They get them somehow.
G Q: I think it's probably just it's probably just a Candy Ride influence.
Eric Rubin: Well, I'm not talking this one. I have no idea.
G Q: Who knows?
Eric Rubin: Perhaps, perhaps.
G Q: But I always thought... Personally, I like to see The turf influence on the damn side. But.
Eric Rubin: Well, the comas are 12 % on in turf sprints and he's got Good numbers, so that's actually low for him probably.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: The mom, literally no turf anywhere in the family. so But again, if you like the 12 -a -side, I think the horse is very good.
G Q: Interesting.
Eric Rubin: just you know you're guessing on the turf and how short a price do you want but anyway
G Q: Yeah.
G Q: ah so we're we're seconds away from going but an hour and ten probably our longest um
Eric Rubin: Bye.
G Q: I have nothing more to say. Did you want to recap anything? Did Starling want to throw in? His pick five.
Eric Rubin: No, the only thing I'll say is that we... ah No one's listening by this point anyway, but.
G Q: Ha ha!
Eric Rubin: Next week, I believe it's next week, Maryland Million.
G Q: Yes, we're a million.
Eric Rubin: So. Spread the word.
G Q: We're going.
Eric Rubin: We're going to be covering Maryland Million. We'll have a Maryland bread guest.
G Q: probably Probably the only podcast that does.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, so if you want to hear about the Maryland Million, we're... We're really looking forward to it. So we'll look at that next week. But other than that, sorry we went so long. Next time we can't go 15 or 20 minutes on a race that has all first -time stars that we don't care about. That's the rule. First time starters, we have no opinion. five minutes or less all right so anyway good luck this week at the races i hope you all Do well.
Eric Rubin: and have fun! Good luck! Ta -ta.
