Transcript
Eric Rubin: Hey and welcome to Better Betting! My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ How be you?
G Q: Eric, I am not well. I am not a well man. um I was... Innocently sitting home last night watching the Yankees Rays game.
G Q: In the bottom of the sixth inning, I got a flashback. Anthony Volpe hits deep fly ball to left field. Uh, Mesa Jr. goes back to the wall. frantically tries to leap and catch.
G Q: No! Home run.
G Q: No! It's not. It's not a game -tying home run. It's a... double because the Jeffrey Mayer. um Grown -up Jeffrey Mayer, I think that's who exactly who who caught the ball and leaned over 30 years after he did it to my Baltimore Orioles.
G Q: Almost 30 years to the day. It was 1996. Two days shy. And and the the the parallel is uncanny. This kind of stuff only happens.
G Q: ah in Yankee Stadium because of... the the ghosts at Yankee Stadium. who helped the modern -day Yankees. But, yes. 30 years ago,
G Q: October 9th. Bottom of the eighth inning, my Orioles are leading. 4 -3 and game won it. Of the ALCS, Derek Jeter steps to the plate. And hits a solo home run, which was not a home run.
G Q: Um... Jeffrey Mayer, who all of New York made a ah folk hero out of. Um... caught the ball. beforehand. So. What does this have to do with horse racing? Nothing. Yeah.
G Q: You just asked me how I was, and usually I'm saying great, but... I had a very restless night because watching that. brought back really bad memories from 30 years ago.
G Q: So. Uh, Other than that, I am just Peachy. How about yourself?
Eric Rubin: I'm doing wonderfully. I don't know. I might not ask you how you're doing next week. I gotta change that. up a little bit.
G Q: I was like, every every single podcast, I'm doing great or life's wonderful and all that.
Eric Rubin: Good morning, fucking everybody.
Eric Rubin: Mhm.
G Q: But, yeah. It was hard going to sleep last night because that just brought up. Bad memories. But. Regardless. But um or ah on a not lighter note, but a much better note, ah if...
G Q: Any of our podcast listeners stayed with us and and listened last week. Uh, Eric, and no there's no gray area and in this.
G Q: proclamation. The late pick five, which we doped out last week. Came back for $0 .50, $1 ,096 .31. And Eric's...
G Q: constructed ticket give or take a few. Of course it is. You could have had it for a $48 ticket, or even if you use his extra horses, it could have been a $96 ticket.
G Q: regardless It came back four figures. Barely four figures, but still four figures. n It kind of dispels... This you know the the stigma of or you can't use to two favorites in a pick five sequence.
G Q: And if you remember, the second sequence was USS Valor. And Goudreau and USS Valor won at 3 -5.
G Q: This pick five also shows you that yeah, you can use chalk But you need to be a little lucky and have some prices. Because... Three of the five races were...
G Q: ah basically won by the favorite. I mean, a 2 -1 -1, a 3 -5 -1. and a 5 -2 morning line one. The other two races ah were won by... a six to one morning line at.
G Q: Actually went off. um and paid 25. dollars And in the last race... The only horse I liked was the 12. Eric.
G Q: used him And he was eight to one morning line and wound up paying $27. So. In a way, it kind of... you know, prove that yes and the when When everything aligns up, you can still get a ah nice price.
G Q: In your pick five. when you use Two favorites. in one leg Only if you're not including favorites in other leagues, which...
G Q: Happened to be the case. Do you want to dispel? argue or agree or not agree.
Eric Rubin: No, I don't necessarily disagree. It's really... The way I look at it, at least, is you look at the favorite and... Does a favorite kind of stick out a little bit or, you know, does a favorite look really good there? And if so, you're probably going to single that horse.
Eric Rubin: And if it's a heavy favorite. You're most likely going to do that or else... If you're trying to beat that horse, you're going to spread, in my opinion, unless you really like someone else. So I basically go into the sequences saying, all right. Here's a favorite.
Eric Rubin: I'm definitely playing against his favorite. Don't like. I'll spread if I have to beat that horse. Heroes of Wars, you know, I really like. i'm going to single that horse and you know could be a couple favorites it really depends on the prices and We'll put together stuff today. and I'm not here to... like necessarily give out tickets. Like you kind of made me reluctantly give my ticket at the end there.
Eric Rubin: I don't mind talking you about it, though, like how I would construct it, which I did. i was kind of thinking it out in all each race. So I don't mind doing that at all. I don't want people to just like. I mean, I'm sure some people do listen to maybe not even our shows but other shows that Yeah.
Eric Rubin: bigger audiences. and Just want to hear what they say from picks and all that. And that's fine if you want to do that. I don't understand that personally, but that's fine. But, uh, I just... kind of like talking about how we see the race and when we get into the sequence right away and we'll see an example of that in race seven the first leg that we're going to talk about today how you know there's a really heavy favorite in what are you doing that kind of scenario so once we get into it we'll get more into the structure
G Q: Right. And Right. to To your point. Um, The reason why we call this little exercise we do weekly, better betting, is...
G Q: Ticket construction. you know when when when to spread when not to spread what horses to include when you spread Yada, yada, yada. So, ah and and... Part of the key...
G Q: Or... Part of the key horse in that sequence was A vulnerable favorite that still went off as they ate the lot eight to five. Uh Post -time favorite in the third leg was that Libby Lloyd.
G Q: And, you know, you spread four deep and just so happened that that one of those four came off at a good price, which helped. you know bolster the payoff.
Eric Rubin: And I think on my ticket, I ended up going one, five, six only. So I only went three deep. The five got the win. but I was okay going four or five deep to beat. uh that lippy horse last week who ended up gone off.
Eric Rubin: whatever you said, 8 to 5, 7 to 5, something like that.
G Q: Yep. Yeah, so yeah, so
Eric Rubin: Yeah, we'll talk more.
G Q: two kudos and and and the thing is is you know I didn't say that to to you know pat e Eric on the back because that's...
Eric Rubin: like i like
G Q: As we all know, there's other... podcasts and people who that's all they're ah they're all about but you know the the key is is how How he got there with that ticket.
G Q: And why that ticket, even though he used two favorites in a... in what looked like a two horse race and turned out to be a two horse race because they ran one too how you can still put together a ticket that potentially has a good payoff by Recognizing vulnerable favorites and... you know Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. but
G Q: when you have a at the very least, a 10 to 1, maybe 20 to 1 return on that ticket. How can you argue that? so um It's more of a...
Eric Rubin: And I think for me.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Oh, I was going to say, when we came back and we did the podcast, you know one of the things I talked about with you was...
G Q: Go ahead.
Eric Rubin: i want to do less handicapping and more like ticket construction and just kind of talking about betting and i think we've done that to some extent we probably haven't cut down the handicapping that much, which is why our show is really long, but. you know, maybe we'll do a little less of the handicapping part.
Eric Rubin: and even more of the ticket construction talk. Yeah, because I think that's really valuable. and Again, it's how I learned from luckily a very small handful of people, but I was able to learn from and it's really helped me do well. and I just...
Eric Rubin: you know, I'm not looking for a pat on the back. I just. I just care about making money and it's obviously been a good year for me. uh but a lot of it is what i learned and I'm kind of... have the confidence now that I have a strategy and approach that no matter what the race, I can approach it well. It doesn't mean I'm going to win all the time. It's not going to happen. It's not easy, especially with 18, 20, 25 % takeout. but uh there's certain approaches you can take that again i've learned you know want to hopefully share with other people.
Eric Rubin: through this podcast. um i'm good unless you have more to say i'm going to jump into the races here if you want
G Q: Yeah, let's... let's move Move on. so We are recording this on a late Wednesday afternoon. ah
Eric Rubin: I believe it's Thursday actually, GQ.
G Q: Oh gosh, you know what?
Eric Rubin: This is what happens when you're semi -retired.
G Q: I was just reading something.
Eric Rubin: You don't know what day of the week it is.
G Q: you know about wednesday i'm like yeah yeah i'm all about it and actually it is thursday But.
Eric Rubin: point.
G Q: So used to... doing this at on Wednesday. All right, so ah it's Thursday afternoon. Morning lines are out, so there's no guessing on who the morning line favorite is.
G Q: So what we're doing is we're back to Belmont, the beautiful new Belmont Park. On Saturday, October 10th. for the late pick five uh which the sequence is races seven through eleven And so the first leg. is race seven which is a seven half furlong New York Steak bread.
G Q: ah maidens for the purchase price of $35 ,000. there's nine signed up to go post -word.
G Q: The really short price morning line favorite. ah Three to five is the two. Irish goodbye. Who drops in for the tag? ah for the first time After failing in... it's in ah His first attempt going long.
G Q: on the turf And. He's run five times and has failed as the first time favorite and for those so Is the fifth time a charm?
Eric Rubin: I think it already went longer than I wanted to on this race.
G Q: but
Eric Rubin: Listen, the two Irish Dubai stands out. big time in this field. he's just He's dropping. He's faster. His last dirt race, July 16th, I think that was. Yet.
Eric Rubin: Major trouble at the start where he spotted the field about eight or ten lengths and still closed well into it He stands out so much. Dad. I mean, he's going to be probably 1 -5. I understand not making him a 1 -5 on the morning line. It's kind of hard to do, but he's going to be 1 -5 in the spot probably.
Eric Rubin: uh two to five at most and He stands out. big time so the question is what do you do I mean, he is dropping. You want to say something's off with him that they're dropping him? To me, it's either singlehand.
Eric Rubin: because he's most likely going to win. Or if you want to take a shot again, just In this case, out unless there's someone you absolutely love out there. I would just spread pretty deep in this field. using almost everyone else.
Eric Rubin: in order to uh defeat him because imagine using like two or three horses to beat him And the two losers? and a very short price but you didn't use the horse to beat him. And then the late pick five pays 10 grand. And the only loss you have is because you tried to be the three to five or one to five, whatever he goes off and you beat him.
Eric Rubin: but not with the right horse. so I don't know. We'll talk about it as we go through like the sequence. When I would do ah two options and I have one singling him. which Well, three options, one singling him.
Eric Rubin: to trying to beat him by spreading a lot and then the third is just Don't play the pick five and either play pick four or don't play the sequence. but I have two options here. I would lean to singling only because ah it's hard for me to envision him losing. But again,
Eric Rubin: You get paid so much by beating him that... if you haven't. any doubt out there at all. You know, he's probably worth trying to beat. then Go back with a pick four if you want. so i'm A little torn here, but...
Eric Rubin: It's hard to envision. I mean, it's horse racing. Anything can happen, but... on paper. I don't see how anyone even comes close. the Second choice is a Forrest Fumato. Two back at this level.
Eric Rubin: July 19th also, and not also, July 19th. That race, I thought, favored speed. and The store is closed into it. pretty well after getting a forward length slow start or so.
Eric Rubin: So I was very impressed with that race. Then he came back. Oh, that wasn't at this level. I'm sorry. That was meeting 25, but open. so Probably was somewhat similar. And then last time at this level, he got squeezed some early.
Eric Rubin: and he closed well but the race was probably too short for him at six furlong so You know, if you upgrade his two back, three back, you got that 67 buyer. He's made it special weight. So he's like the only one I think that has it.
Eric Rubin: like legit chance of beating the two. So, I mean, I get, even though I just said spread to beat him, I mean, if you want to single the four or something, maybe, but. um I don't think anyone else is that close.
Eric Rubin: This. The other horns that would be interesting a little bit. Three. Port it down, lit lad. who got squeezed back to the start a few lengths last time. So he had a little trouble last time. And, you know, he ran okay at this level to get second, about four back. I would kind of ignore the turf races.
Eric Rubin: uh the five hell's kitchen coming off a long layoff but maker on the drop off a long layoff it's 5 for 17. so mike maker 29 5 for 17 made in special way to meeting claiming off of a 180 plus day layoff this is almost like a 360 day layoff just about but and Some of those stories really improved a lot. So, you know, I would throw him in there if I'm trying to beat the two. and
Eric Rubin: uh again i don't want to really talk those are the main ones but i would probably add the six and seven chris's song and Chris Kingsland, maybe even the one violin and eight always honest. Again, that's only if I'm trying to beat the two. It's a race I'm not going to bet vertically because. Again, I don't want to bet the two.
Eric Rubin: and I'm not going to bet against the four of the second choice. Even if I did, it wouldn't help me that much. If I put the two on top and beat the four, it's still going to be. Paying nothing. But I don't really want to waste too much money betting against the two. I can see myself sitting out the race vertically, definitely. And in the pick five, again, I have to make decisions. We'll talk about it at the end. So if you want to say anything else about the race, feel free. Otherwise, I know you haven't said much, so feel free.
Eric Rubin: I'm pretty much done. Unless you have a specific question you want me to... Tackle.
G Q: I have no question. Just the fact that the connections who were And the... Two. and yeah You have Brad Cox and Michael Dubb and Elkstone Group.
G Q: I have a hard time. They ah they they only, they they went in together to buy this horse. in 2024 for $52 ,000. So it's not going to be a huge loss if they they lose the horse. They're just not interested in this type of horse. and uh you know They are...
G Q: They want want to lose this horse. you know they'll they'll They'll take the winner's share, which is going to be $30 ,000 and you know be happy with it.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I mean
Eric Rubin: And then the $35 ,000 claim
G Q: Right. Exactly.
Eric Rubin: You're talking 65 ,000 or it's already made 66.
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: So they get 130 something thousand. It's been 52. You know, I don't think they're making money paying all the bills over the years, but they're not losing too much and they might be making a little, I don't want to do the math, but.
G Q: No, they're just getting all the money back that they lost betting the horse's last five times.
Eric Rubin: So yeah, whatever
Eric Rubin: And that could be true too. That might be true. But, yeah, so what what would you do here? Do you have any opinion? You just think the board is going to win.
G Q: Um...
Eric Rubin: Would you play against?
G Q: I... I...
Eric Rubin: Would you sit out?
G Q: You know, I don't think the horse's damaged goods is the reason why they're they're dropping him. It just doesn't fit their portfolio of the horses they want to own.
Eric Rubin: Makes sense.
G Q: So they're making it really difficult for anybody not to to drop a slip on the horse. The only other horse that I think ah might. have have a shot and you mentioned it was the five hells kitchen Only because of...
G Q: You know, everybody else has already run at this level. and Nobody else is dropping except him. Yeah, he's coming off of. Nearly a year layoff. They go to the game. uh as you said maker has has nice win percentages these type of layoffs so why not but yeah it's It's almost like, okay, let's let's turn this into a pick four, really. because
G Q: Unless you really want to to beat the two. um go for it and spread so ah Yeah, that's enough for that race. So on to leg two for Saturday at Belmont Park. Leg pick five is race eight.
G Q: It is seven furlongs on the turf. It is the bricks and mortar stake. $475 ,000. Field it ah for three -year -olds. A field of nine signed up to go postward. The morning line favorite is the one. two -out hero.
G Q: which that's what Anthony Volpe tried to be last night in the sixth inning.
Eric Rubin: Hmm.
G Q: It was two outs. Uh, 8 to 5 is the morning line. on this horse Bye. I like the fact this horse continues at least Briznet speed figures continue to climb.
G Q: ah Onward and upward. ah Eric, do you see... uh two out here would be a vulnerable more in my favor.
Eric Rubin: No, I mean is... On the short side, price -wise, but no, I think Chihuahua has a good chance here. uh first i'm a big I shouldn't say I'm a big fan of Kevin Attard. I don't really know Kevin Attard, but just knowing the limited time I've been in Canada, he might be a great guy or a jerk. I don't know, but I just feel like his horses do very well. so um That's not the only reason. The horse has just run pretty well, I think. Two backs.
Eric Rubin: Second level allowance, optional claimer at Woodbine. Again, I don't know exactly what he's meaning there. uh and i don't know the speed figure there maybe it's inflated in canadian numbers but he got an 88 buyer if you care about that I just thought he ran well. He saved ground and had a good trip.
Eric Rubin: But at and the same time, he ran down a loose 9 -2 shot, was like extending at the wire, so it looks like he you know just got off. but if they win another. 10 feet, he would have been ahead by three lengths. He finished well, and then he ran really well at Kentucky Downs, which, again, we don't really trust the speed figures from Kentucky Downs. but and it's a unique course.
Eric Rubin: But... I thought he ran really well, saved ground. during the race but he was tight some on the back stretch he was very game so I think the one -two out hero is a legit favorite here, and I think he should run well. with The jockey.
Eric Rubin: I know you do the Florent Giroux. Do you do the Rafael Hernandez? ah
G Q: Oh, that.
Eric Rubin: talk
G Q: Rafael Hernandez.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I can't do it. You're better than me by Raphael and whatever Yes.
G Q: But he doesn't even pronounce the H.
Eric Rubin: that's well
G Q: it's
Eric Rubin: Intermediate News.
G Q: It's Raphael. Hernandez.
Eric Rubin: Something like that, yeah. He really gets into the Raphael, too.
G Q: so
Eric Rubin: that's ah What's his name?
G Q: And we're talking about Robert robert Geller, right?
Eric Rubin: yeah Get. tell her Yeah, yeah. So no, I think two out here is a legit favorite. There's one on the horse that I like here. at a price the nine feline curious not just because I like cats.
Eric Rubin: Sounds kind of like inappropriate, actually. Feline curious, like some kind of bestiality type thing. It's kind of scary, but... anyway that's not why i like the horse trust me Kelsey Danner, Jose Lescano. These are words.
Eric Rubin: Chew back. Broke his mean. That thought ran pretty well. Was pressed by a 9 -1 shot. He ended up fifth, so it wasn't like a crazy, crazy pace, but it wasn't like an easy lead two back, and I thought the horse ran well.
Eric Rubin: And then last race, first level allowance, optional claimer. I thought the race favored closers the way it was run. uh this was Was three wide around the first turn, two wide.
Eric Rubin: Chase the 5 -1 shot, who faded in a little bit, to 5th out of 8. So I thought the horse had an excuse there a little bit to ah with with that wide trip and shortening up here and chasing ah a decent pace. shortening up here to a distance that could be good.
Eric Rubin: Horse can come off the pace a little bit, doesn't need to be right up on the lead. So I kind of like feline curious partially. I don't love anyone else and and the one I think is pretty good. So I'm mostly with the one nine here. There are a couple other words I want to talk about, but I don't want to hog the whole time. So I'll throw it back to you and then. before we wrap up. whenever, come back to me at some point.
G Q: Nah, I... I think there's... probably enough cheap not cheap but early speed like the seven intricate spirit is five and a furlong early speed type uh doubting thomas has some early speed obviously the five iron palace has early speed so Should be a legitimate pace. ah in there i kind of Like. the
G Q: Four horse. Proton? I'm like two back when it went six furlongs. colonial um looks like a kind of ah ah just kind of Ran around the track, never gained anything. Ran behind the eight -horse Dowding Thomas that day going six furlongs.
G Q: I just think the additional... for a long will help. uh in in that particular case if if he can run back to to that race. um I failed to write down the morning line one. proton.
Eric Rubin: 12 to 1.
G Q: All right, I'll take it. um So yeah, that's the only one I'm interested in. but ah ah You're feeling curious. I was kind of... feel in the same way. cutting back in distance.
G Q: may not show that early speed and revert back to Um... when Tyler Gafleon was not. on him.
G Q: showing early speed and he he's definitely could come off the pace but uh Proton has a much better late pace. figure that i calculated based on my brisnet numbers so i'd I'd be interested in a Proton at 12 to 1.
G Q: Back to you.
Eric Rubin: all
G Q: but
Eric Rubin: I know you mentioned there could be a pace here or some speed, but... I mean, it looks like the seven intricate spirit is the speed of any speed. I mean, if you just look at the times which I'm not keen on looking sometimes because Some of these tracks aren't great, but...
G Q: Yeah, all 21s.
Eric Rubin: E. Yeah. I mean, he's just running a lot faster early than he's like, you know, even the six or the five, they look like speed, but they're going, you know, 47.
G Q: Yeah, because they're coming off a distance.
Eric Rubin: I guess. What do you see some change, mate?
G Q: yeah
Eric Rubin: Right, so shortening up. I don't know if they're gonna have the same speed as intricate spirit The thing with intricate spirit, the seven is, you know, how is he going to do it? Seven furlongs, but could have an easy lead. I thought he raised two back, and the quick call was really good. He got squeezed at the start and then had just a brutal trip.
Eric Rubin: I just don't know what happened last time. Last time he dueled a 7 -1 shot. who won the race straws doubt that's the name of the horse and Just quit so I don't know what happened last race, but if you make an excuse for it And.
Eric Rubin: I mean, he's low in speed. you know Why can't he get seven furlongs? I don't know. So I'm not against a seven at all. He's someone I would think about using. The five iron palace horse I normally wouldn't love. Looks like he came off a fairly easy lead, but yeah he was he was rushed hard to the lead.
Eric Rubin: in both races. He was pressed a little bit. In fact, his first race, he was pressed by the 9 -to -5 shot and faded to the back. so I don't think it was as easy a lead as it looks on paper maybe that he had. The question is, can he rate? Because I don't know that he's going to get a lead here. And if he can rate, I think the five iron palace.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, stepping up from a 1X to a stakes race here. but I don't think that hoard is impossible at all. So, you know, five and seven, I have some thoughts on a little bit. Maybe the eight -doubting Thomas who ran well two back at Colonial.
Eric Rubin: I know. Similar stinks for Aswell. probably easier because it was not in new york it was on a lesser c circuit but Last race, I didn't love Donnie Thomas' race.
Eric Rubin: The only thing you can argue for the down in Thomas is maybe he doesn't want to go a mile. And if that's the case and you ignore the last race, then he's fine here as well. And, you know, if he was like three to 172, I don't want him. But if he's six to one, I'm OK with that.
Eric Rubin: The horse I want to bet against, which I'm always reluctant to say because then when that horse wins, I'll look like a fool. but the threat Not that it's a big favorite, but I'm not going to use a three -big destroyer who just had a really great trip behind a three -way duel. It was like three horses like across the track. and Just had a great trip behind them and got out finished anyway. Yeah, it was Kentucky now. and so Who knows? but aye I don't really care for Big de Destroyer. Could the horse win? Sure. But a 5 -1 or anywhere near there, I have no desire for that horse. so
Eric Rubin: For the most part, i'm on the one in nine here and it's a little bit of a dilemma for me because When I like the favorite, I don't like to spread a lot. you know I just want to key on the favorite.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, it was like... 41 -72 favorite, but it's not that. And if I don't like the favorite, I like the spread. But in this case, I do like the favorite. I like the nine. So there's a chance I just go one nine here in a pick five sequence. but We'll talk about the other legs. Depending on what I do in the other legs, I can see adding the 5 -7 -8 also.
Eric Rubin: When we talk about maybe at the end construction, we'll try and go a little quicker soon. to save some time for that. But, you know, I can see you going 1 -9 definitely. And then maybe 578 in addition, as far as vertically betting.
Eric Rubin: This race, it really depends on the price, but we're assuming the morning line is is pretty accurate and that's what they're going to go off and there's no scratches. i Mean it's hard to envision spreading too much in a like a box here Unless I just keyed the 9.
Eric Rubin: which i could do in key nine with one five seven eight and then obviously obviously but extra one nine And that will be my main ticket with the 1 -9. but also use 9 with the 578. I don't know if it's worth using the 1 with the 578 also. It's definitely possible, though.
Eric Rubin: if their odds are decent. So I can see I can see doing like a... on dollar exactly box 1579 because you do have Two double digit horses and one is six to one in there, even though you do have the favorite.
Eric Rubin: It's just like a $1 bet because if it comes in 5 -7 and for a dollar pays $98 or $120. I have the nine with those words and maybe even the one with those, I would be like, why didn't I do a dollar? It's a $2 bet to have that. So I can see doing that, but definitely. from If I'm only betting like $6 or $10 on the race, I'm not doing that. But I would definitely reprice it by keying the $9.
Eric Rubin: and the 9 -1 a lot, and maybe even putting the 1 over the 5 -7 -8 -9 in some bets as well. And that's how I'd approach this race vertically, hoping to beat the three. and three technically is the second choice so if i'm gonna bet the favorite I like not to like the second choice. I'm against the second choice. I'm also against the co -third choice here, who's the two at six to one. I'm not going to use that horse. So, you know, it's not the greatest betting from me in this race, but it could be worse, I guess.
Eric Rubin: Alright.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: Awesome.
G Q: Yeah. That's it. Bye.
Eric Rubin: Okay.
G Q: Moving on to the third leg of Saturday. Late pick five at Belmont Park. It's the ninth race. Seven furlongs for fillies and mare, state -bred maidens.
G Q: for a $100 ,000 purse. Field of Eight. Due to go postward. the three horse Promise Me a Melody is the... 2 -1 favorite.
G Q: Over probably the seven, Liberty's advance. ah they both combined to be beaten favorite six times uh promised me a melody has only run twice and has been the beaten favorite twice and Liberty's Advance.
G Q: has been four times. The beaten favorite out of... Her last. Four. but Or her last five. starts So.
G Q: Can you trust either one?
Eric Rubin: Well,
G Q: Because you can't trust the other six, right?
Eric Rubin: We start the race. formula No, not necessarily. Me. Three, promise me. that Well, first of all, you left out the second favorite, six words, okay, Andy, but.
G Q: Uh, sorry about that.
Eric Rubin: I don't know if you meant to or not, but that's okay.
G Q: i Was guessing
Eric Rubin: It's not. Oh. That's all right. But anyway, I'm trying to fend off a cat attack right here as I talk. so Hopefully I can do it. Go back to sleep. You were sleeping. Anyway, so the reprocessing melody. Yeah, I think there's a somewhat vulnerable favorite. I mean, there's a horse who...
Eric Rubin: if you had two races right she's had two races If you go by her first race, she stands out in this race, and that's why she was 4 -5 last race. Problem is, last race, she ran pretty poorly. Now, she got off to a little bit of a slow start and was bumped early, was three wide.
Eric Rubin: But just wasn't good in that race. You want to argue he was out of position early because he got bumped. I can see if you want to make an excuse for the horse, but a two to one, I don't know if I want you. These are raised for our... I'm already kind of chalky because I'm probably most likely singling.
Eric Rubin: The 3 -5, 2 -5, 1 -5 horse in the first leg. The next race, yeah, I'm using a 12 -1, but I'm also using the 8 -5 horse. and possibly some others who you know a decent price but so i have the two favorites so far so Yeah, I can just play against the three and spread here. But this is where I'm going to try and take a little stand. And I'm going to single the six. Okay, Annie on my tickets here.
Eric Rubin: Okay, and he ran against, I believe, the three last time and outran her. And OK Annie had a little bit of a tough trip. so It was her third race, but she had been on the turf. They went. sprinting on the turf where she closed belatedly. Then they went long on the charf.
Eric Rubin: and it didn't go all that well So then they try around the dirt. made in special weight state bred this level six furlongs and this raise at seven. So a little longer and she closed pretty well there, but.
Eric Rubin: um Saying close well doesn't really tell the whole story. First of all, she had a perfect trip going. And then she kind of had to wait and shuffled back on the turn. And she lost momentum And she waited again. I believe it was like late on the turn, top of the stretch. And she still was able to regather that momentum and closed really well. So I was pretty impressed with that race.
Eric Rubin: of okay annie and it's not like i love anyone else you kind of you know suddenly knock the other horses by saying how they lost the short prize already several times so I'm just, I mean, we can talk about all the words, but I'm just going to single OK Annie here as a second choice.
Eric Rubin: three to one and Hopefully the three doesn't get scratched and the seven doesn't get scratched, right? And the four doesn't get scratched, so I get a decent price. Because 3D1 is fine with me. I don't want too much shorter. but Yeah, that's what I'm going to do here in the pick five. We can talk about vertically, too, or a few other words.
Eric Rubin: As far as pick five, that's what I'm doing. i'm Taking a stand here.
G Q: Yeah. um Okay, Andy. it looks okay to me i mean first a time on dirt after a bit of a layoff trying the turf
Eric Rubin: Heh.
G Q: I mean... why Why not? Why couldn't this horse come back and beat... the morning line favorite.
G Q: I really can't make an excuse for... For any others, you know, the... As I mentioned earlier, the seven, liberties advance. Probably take the money, but...
G Q: i I just don't see it happening there. First -time starter on far outside, obviously. ah the the The works on paper look okay, but...
G Q: No love for Katie Davis taking them out 15 -1.
G Q: Got a horse 21 morning line the to run flat adds lasix after two subpar efforts Back at Saratoga. so Uh,
G Q: it it looks It looks like... You know, it's too logical here to, you know, unless you really take it. much deeper, deeper dive. Um, The only one who... Ran against Open Company as the 5 -horse, our sweet harpy.
G Q: When? back in July at Delaware. the winner and the second place horse came back to win, but. It's Delaware. you know it's it's not like they they ran at saratoga and open uh
Eric Rubin: I mean, those horses got, I mean, those horses were like 60 to 70 buyer horses and.
G Q: Go ahead.
Eric Rubin: that's as good as she's faced here so
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: You can argue with even better field in this but it's probably a similar field to this Probably needed the race.
G Q: Uh -huh.
Eric Rubin: uh you know
G Q: It's interesting, ah Steve Klosaris, the...
Eric Rubin: Goodbye.
G Q: the trainer of the five. our sweet harpy. Zero. 0 for 19 over the last couple years, second career. Race.
Eric Rubin: oh
G Q: That horse. But that horse doesn't know that, right? Ha ha!
Eric Rubin: No, not at all. uh
G Q: He is 11 % coming off of a similar layoff. so if you wanna. lean on the better of things, you know, ads, blankers. You know, when whenever a horse adds blankers.
G Q: I like to just see... the workouts since that last race to see if they indicate little quicker and it really doesn't All that much.
G Q: So... Can't get excited about backing. out Our sweet harpy.
Eric Rubin: Well, here's where to me betting is different than handicapping Like, we can parse through all these sorts and all, but to me, I handicap. I like the six the best. I'm i'm going with the six.
Eric Rubin: And then to me, yeah, I mean, how good is this horse? How good is that horse? To me, it's like, you know what? I'm going to play against the favorites here. So the three, Promise Me, a Melody. You know what? Stunk last time. I think, I mean, again, a little excuse, but I'm going to try and beat the horse. Could the horse win the three? Yeah, she can win, but.
Eric Rubin: I'm just going to try and beat her. Yeah, if you had a gun to my head. I think I'd still pick the six, just gone to my head and pick the winner. And I think three would be my second pick. If I had gone to my head and saved my life, I had to pick the winner. But I'm going to play against the horse at 2 -1 or anything near there. so uh what i would do ben in this race is i would bet the six and i use a few horses with the six so The horse that would use the four who ran fine. at this level Came in second three times in a row.
Eric Rubin: then they tried the on the dirt then they tried the turf and the synthetic and neither one went very well so to me and what was the stakes race on the turf so to me this horse I don't love the horse. it That's i think the horse's gonna win but has a good chance to be in the money there. So I'm going to use a four. I'm going to use a five. I kind of mentioned second time out.
Eric Rubin: Didn't run terrible. I mean, it looks bad, but it got a little shuffled back after being up close early. so I'm okay with the five there. Our sweet Harpy. and then the eight i would uh i'm sorry the seven I would use And that's Liberty's Advance, who's the third choice.
Eric Rubin: Also, last race was not very good, but was fine before that, at least one race. So I'm okay with that. I don't really see the others as being all that great. So to me, I would bet I would key the six.
Eric Rubin: And I'd use the four, five, seven with the six. So I'd go six. with four five seven in exactus i'd put the six on top for extra money so you know maybe again does that be a big budget like you want to do a dollar dollar six with four five seven boxed and then straight a dollar Six with four, five, seven. That's what.
Eric Rubin: $3, $9, I think. So you can do that if you want. Again, you can pick any horse you want. It doesn't have to be that, but that's just how I'd approach this race. Trying to meet the favor here. If there was a little more prices, I would just box off for them also just in case. but I'm not taking anyone like even double digit odds there. So I'm not going to box all four of them. If it comes in like four, seven or.
Eric Rubin: 5 -4, yeah, in a way it will suck because I won't have it unless I hit the triple. but with the sixth urn, but. um i'm okay with that in this case and i do triples the same way i do six with four five seven And I put extra with the six on top. And the only reason, I mean, I probably wouldn't, but there's a chance I'll throw in the eight.
Eric Rubin: i don't I don't care about Katie Davis, like you mentioned. That's whatever to me. Bye. Carlos Figueroa, who hasn't won all a year. First time star going seven furlongs. I know the workout looks quick and this is not the greatest feel. So maybe.
Eric Rubin: I would throw in the eight. It can't hurt. What's six with eight? A dollar? box is two dollars and a straight exact is a another dollar so it's three dollars and if i add them to the triples it costs a little more but i most likely i'll do that so i'm talking myself into it six with four five seven eight And triples in exactus. And the six doesn't come in. And in the top three, I won't collect anything. And the six does. I'll need the three to run out of the money, and I think I'll be in good shape there. So that's how I'd approach this race. I'm going to signal in the pick five, which.
Eric Rubin: It gives me a little leeway because I was a little chalky early. and Again, the six is not a big price or anything, but at least it's not a favorite, so I'm beating a favorite. There's one other favorite I'm going to try and beat, and I think that's enough to get this. pick five to a decent pair, at least where I'm not spending a fortune, I'm going to get a decent payout. So that's how I see this race.
G Q: All right. Thank you. moving on to the Fourth leg of the late pick five on Saturday at Belmont Park. This rate's 10. It is the Grade 3 Hillprint Stakes.
G Q: $200 ,000 purse on the inner turf for three -year -olds going one mile in three sixteenths Field of nine with the number six.
G Q: Caroline Street beat the... 7 -5 morning line favorite. So these are... ah Not New York Breds, but she's a New York Bred who did quite well in a grade two at Kentucky Downs. um Did you see that race?
G Q: Did you watch the replay? Was she impressive?
Eric Rubin: I bet. I'm i bet in the race ended not have caroline street beats So I'm not thrilled, Saratoga Neem.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: Are you familiar? I'm sure you must be. Caroline Street in Saratoga?
G Q: You know what? I'm going to embarrass myself and say, no, this Maryland bread is not familiar. I i was going to ask you, you know, what's the reference to Caroline Street? Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, it's one of the, so. Most people who've been to Saratoga probably know this already, so sorry if I'm talking about what you know. but So, The Mean Road, Broadway. I think it's Broadway.
G Q: Yes.
Eric Rubin: blanking but yeah so you know you have all these cross streets feeling street and uh um Caroline Street or like two crossroads next to each other. By the way, Felix Street has the best breakfast that I've had probably.
Eric Rubin: the Second best breakfast I had in my life. Sweet Mimi's, I highly recommend. We should get a plug for that.
G Q: Have I been to a restaurant on Caroline Street?
Eric Rubin: You probably have because there's a bunch of them, but I don't know which one you might have gone to.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: I'm trying to think. Yes, Sweet Mimi's and Hattie's is next to Sweet Mimi's. I think. And that is on Fila Street, which is a block over from Caroline.
Eric Rubin: But Caroline Street is like the main, I mean, there's a lot of bars and restaurants, but Caroline's like the main.
G Q: So does it does it run parallel to Union, or...?
Eric Rubin: all right months.
G Q: Does it...
Eric Rubin: Yes. parallel union crosses broadway too so it's further south i guess you know more into town union's kind of at the north end just past town
G Q: Okay.
G Q: Okay. Yep.
Eric Rubin: so yes it's uh and i guess beat because they have a lot of bars and live music out there and it was uh you know.
G Q: Gotcha.
Eric Rubin: fun time out there so my younger days i'm gonna have hung out on caroline street a little later now I don't. But... Anyway, I'm in bed by the time Caroline Street's hopping, I think, when I'm up there. But anyway, I digress.
Eric Rubin: These are words who I am definitely going to bet against. So, you know, we talked about a couple of favorites that we're going to bet, but now we got two in a row where we're going to bet against. and Could Caroline Street beat Wynn? Absolutely.
Eric Rubin: But these are worth you. Really coming off two pretty much perfect trips. I had two raises in 70s. I mean, it was pretty remarkable. A New York bread. coming at a horse coming out of a first level allowance win for new york reds with pretty much an almost perfect trip.
Eric Rubin: Comes back. six or seven guess seven days later, whatever that was, eight days. and wins a green two at Kentucky Downs. That was very... impressive Did that take anything out of the horse? I don't know.
Eric Rubin: But when horses win with perfect trips, and I didn't really like them last time. And they come back at really short prices, granted with some class relief. I'm against them. So I will not be betting Caroline Street if she comes, ah he.
Eric Rubin: Sorry. The word Caroline threw me off for a second. Think of a girl. But if he wins, I will not be getting anything here. And I'm well aware that might happen. That's that. Most likely.
Eric Rubin: Singling men. two to five, whatever in the first leg. So it's more like a pick four in the past. I got to beat some favorites, and this is the second one where I'm going to try and beat. If I were spreading to beat.
Eric Rubin: No. I forgot the horse in the race seven, the big favorite Irish goodbye, the big favorite for Cox. If I was being that, yeah, maybe I would use Caroline street.
G Q: yeah
Eric Rubin: I'm probably one to be honest, but maybe I would. Cause if you beat that horse, it's going to pay a fortune no matter what you have. So you might not want to get imagine not having Caroline street and beating that horse, but that might be me actually. So we'll see. But anyway, so who who do I prefer here? I'm going to go five deep in this race and pick five.
Eric Rubin: and just try and beat Caroline Street. beat I have two singles, right? Most likely single in the first leg. Reese seven singling Reese nine. i said i was probably going to go what five deep Maybe even only two deep in in race eight, the second line. So I'm one by five by one or one by two by one so far. So I'm very thin. So I'm going to go five deep here. the the Where is that like the most or the one print?
Eric Rubin: who is written by Ricardo Santana again. for Bobby Romano. who has been around New York for quite some time. uh he trains for this guy mark keller and that's pretty much all he trains for i think over the years but i thought this horses run really well i mean I don't know, maybe they're just visually impressive more than anything else.
Eric Rubin: but two back the horse was squeezed early a few lands so i would upgrade that performance then last time Ran well. I was very impressed with the finish. Finished really strong in that race. Has to stretch out a little bit, but I didn't see anything that would make me think the horse can't stretch out. and
Eric Rubin: I mean, Artie Schiller, the damn sire there. I mean, Artie Schiller ran, what, mile and a half races and stuff like that, so it doesn't mean this horse can, but I'm not that worried about the distance. I'm more worried about is she he good enough, and I think Prince is. And the other horse is Chambersville, who I singled.
Eric Rubin: two back at nine to one or eight to one that was a good race for me up at saratoga i think i made some money that day And I don't remember the last race, but I did i don't think I bet that race at Colonial, but I did watch the race. act a I mean, only two wide.
Eric Rubin: uh was kind of like rank hard held it was fighting the rider a lot so probably took some out that was around the first turn and early on the back stretch Probably took some out of the horse. The horse is not really a speed horse. so I don't know, maybe the horse was...
Eric Rubin: fired up that day for some reason i know the pace was slower maybe that's why He was close to lead too, but this is where it's too. I like two back because it was coming off a lot of wide trips and, you know, chased a really solid pace two back. With a three -wide trip, like, I really like that race, too, back then. Allowance, though, is a little different. First -level allowance, but it is a grade three. But I like that horse, too, Chamberville. So those are my main two, the one and eight.
Eric Rubin: print and chamber mill. chambers well But I also kind of like the two protect and defend a little bit. And that's Shug McGahee. yes coming off a medium wins was stepping up but this horse is you know i thought ran really well again just visually watching Two -back was ranked on the first turn.
Eric Rubin: And that definitely hurt this horse. and was very game finished, lost by a nose, but was really fighting on and got a little unlucky there. and then Two back was just better than those, I guess, but, you know, ran really well.
Eric Rubin: Uh. in that race i thought it kind of favored speed but still was able to catch a horse who had a loose lead that horse came in third and nine to one but just visually the horse ran pretty well too so i'm kind of like one eight and two is a little lower than them for me but that would be my third horse there's two others i want to use but i'm talking forever so you want to Jump in here. Thoughts on those words or anything else?
G Q: One of them here is Johnny. The three?
Eric Rubin: Yes. Now, you can talk now if you want.
G Q: Well, keep talking then. Keep talking.
Eric Rubin: Huh. So I don't love yours, Johnny, by any stretch of the imagination.
G Q: so
Eric Rubin: These are words who won three back with a great setup. in the saturn act so was It wasn't impossible that day at 15 -1, but... it's like i got a really good setup so i'm sure i was against this horse the next two times that he ran and Looks like he didn't run well, and he didn't run great, but both those horses raised his head.
Eric Rubin: Very little speed to that. I know two back, the pace looks fast and all, but if you watch the race, the speed is really held on. and I didn't think there was a great chance to close either of those two races. so While I don't love here's Johnny, again, I'm trying to beat an even money shot.
Eric Rubin: and I'm going to use Sears Johnny in the pick five as well. And there's one other I'd use, but do you want to jump in now or what do you want to do?
G Q: No, I... I was just going to say about. Here's Johnny. uh um I like the Saratoga Derby two back, even though it just ran sixth.
G Q: my seven Just go in this this distance and there There are horses in here that have never gone The mile on 316th. the the one that you you had mentioned protected event i i like also coming off those made wins I mean,
G Q: all the races prior to to those had trouble in each of them, various stages of trouble. So who knows exactly how good.
G Q: he can be. and If. the horse that had the perfect trip is your seven to five morning line favorite then The rest of them can't. Be all that.
G Q: And. So Protect and Defend could come right back and... win a grade three off of that maiden one. The one that... Okay. I keep coming back to...
G Q: But... I hate Bye. I'm one that always looks at horses. who have run well with lasix but then When they're not running with Lasix, they're not winning.
G Q: And that's the seven at 12 to one Versailles road. I'm just throwing out the Kentucky Downs race, that last race, Johnny V. probably once he knew that the for whatever reason went out you know, fast I guess, trained.
G Q: repeat the maiden win back in May at the uh aqueduct on gate the wire but didn't work out so Just took care of the horse once he realized it wasn't going to go to the five. five sixteenths The 2 -2 back, obviously, against lesser competition, but go in that distance.
G Q: I think. the The horse has a pedigree to run all day, and maybe if things... set up nicely. ah Versailles wrote 12 -1 can be in the mix.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, that's the worst we covered. We covered Chewbacca that race August 8th. You know, I remember talking about that race and I like the horse. I bet the horse. I think I only used one other horse that race and in the pick five. I went too deep. and i remember saying in that race one reason i like versailles road it's not that i love that horse But like that was a mile and three ace, I think.
Eric Rubin: and
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: I had very little faith in anyone there getting the distance. And Versailles Road, I wasn't worried about the distance. I was just worried how good he was. So I think he won that race. more because no one else does.
G Q: He could get the distance.
Eric Rubin: He had a really good trip. He saved ground, perfect trip anyway. And I think in reality, he said in the last race. So, again, I hate to talk to you about this. 12 -1, but I'm not going to use the horse. But stick with the horse, please.
Eric Rubin: i again i so reluctant to say negative things about prices or anyone.
G Q: Well, but but again, what what I led into, the bad thing is... is You know, his best finish without Lasix was third when he was a maiden. back in December at Gulfstream Park.
G Q: I just lean heavily when... horse you know horses no longer have Lasix. If if If they've never run on Lasix. You know, in...
G Q: You can argue, well, Because the horse is running on Lasix, it means he's stepping up in class, obviously, and the waters are deeper. So, yeah, it probably isn't going to be successful.
G Q: But, yeah. And not not... to talk you off of print but if you look at prince races when he ran without Lasix. It's...
G Q: a complete 180 from when He had the ability run with Lasix.
Eric Rubin: You want to get your glasses checked there? What are you talking about? Two back might have been his best race.
G Q: Okay. What? Oh, two back? The the great two?
Eric Rubin: Yeah, he ran really well. First of all, speed figure was as good as anyone and he was squeezed early several wins. So I thought he ran really well two back, but. Anyway, that's fine if you... ah See it differently. And he was 31 to 1 in the race.
Eric Rubin: so He was in a grade 2, really tough race. I thought he went really well.
G Q: Gotcha.
Eric Rubin: But anyway, not sure. Jumped on your throat, but I guess I did there. Sorry
G Q: Yeah, that's right.
Eric Rubin: It's fun. though I haven't done that much today, so it's fun. i was you
G Q: That's right. you You had to get that out of your system.
Eric Rubin: There you go.
G Q: We only had one more race that you could do that.
Eric Rubin: So...
G Q: so
Eric Rubin: I know, and and we're going long, so I feel bad, but the other horse I would use is the five bull shoals. who's just coming off a wide trip. He ran against the nine Third Coast, but I thought Third Coast saved ground, had like a perfect trip, and Bullitt shows a five.
Eric Rubin: Had a 2 -3 wide trip there, so I like him definitely better than the 9. So I would throw him in. Again, if I wasn't beating Caroline Street, beat. and she wasn't ah he wasn't like a big favorite. I might only go one, two, eight here.
Eric Rubin: But because I'm trying to beat the big favorite, I'm going to throw in the three and the five also. So I'm five deep in the pick five. As far as betting the race vertically. I know. I mean, I would Spread a little bit here.
Eric Rubin: I probably... Go one with? 2, 3, 8 Two, three, five, eight. so i'm talking exact as in again some people aren't going to bet this much but i go exact as in triples One with. to 3, 5, 8 And then I do the same thing where I key the eight horse, eight width.
Eric Rubin: two, a one, two, three, five. So eight with one, two, three, five. So the two orders I like the most here, are the one and the eight, I'm going to key them instead of boxing all five together. Cause now you're talking $20 exact to $30 triple. and And I like the one eight. And if one of them's not in the top two or three.
Eric Rubin: i don't deserve to get anything here and i hope they can get them both in there and i'll have it for extra But that's kind of what I'm doing. And then I'd probably narrow it down and I'd do a one, two, eight box, just a little extra, just because those are the three I definitely like more than the other.
Eric Rubin: more than 35 so i you know definitely have one two eight extra whether it's exact the box triple box I can see putting the one and eight on top of the other horses, maybe. you know, put the two second and put me on this third, things like that. But that's kind of how I approached this race.
Eric Rubin: trying to beat Caroline Street. beat. Anyway. you want want You want to
G Q: Okay. yeah Sounds good. Let's move on to the...
Eric Rubin: Alright.
G Q: Last leg, last race so on Saturday at Belmont. Park in the late pick five. It's race 11. a one mile turf event. State bread, New York bread. uh maiden claiming for fifty thousand dollars three -year -olds and Oh.
G Q: Uh, 15 have signed up to... uh run in this race only a maximum of 12 will go The morning line favorite is the one 9 -5 morning line, Gil Bain. Talk about...
G Q: horses that we've covered in past podcasts.
Eric Rubin: me
G Q: He's been on our last two. and he got a lot of mention, and he's still looking to break his maiden. The interesting thing here... If he doesn't win here, he may never win because...
G Q: Seven of the twelve who... Or... definite unless they want to scratch out of this race or are scratched. 7 out of the 12 or...
G Q: Nine of the 15 who are entered have never gone off at odds less than 10 to 1.
Eric Rubin: interesting
G Q: that's and And we're not talking about one and two race maiden. I mean, you you got a long list of these horses that... Just don't look like ah they're in the right um race, but I don't know, how low is 35 ,000 the lowest?
G Q: uh new york bred maiden race does it go down to 20 or is that open 20.
Eric Rubin: i I doubt it. may Maybe on the dirt it's possible in the winter, but... Yeah this is...
G Q: Servus.
Eric Rubin: On the chart, they don't go much lower than 50, maybe 75.
G Q: Yeah, so so they're they're kind of at the bottom here at the 50 ,000 state bread. so um Are you going to trust? Give. Gilbane a third shot at this or Have you looked elsewhere?
Eric Rubin: Well, Gobain's interesting. You said we talked about him a lot on the podcast. and Two back, I actually kind of liked him. It was more I didn't like anyone else. I believe I singled him. two back in the race at Saratoga there where he came in second. He took the lead. I know I did. I was alive because I couldn't watch the race. And then after I saw he came in second, I'm like, oh, yeah I hope he lost by a lot. And then I saw the race and I'm like, oh, I'll replay my home. mother but anyway um so i liked him there but He had a perfect trip that day, so I was against him last time.
Eric Rubin: And he ends up coming in third. So I don't remember who I bet or how the race went exactly. but I know it was against him last time. And yeah, she run. Better, I thought, last time than he ran the first time. First time he's coming off the layoff, so he should run better. I know the speed figure is going to be lower, but... got squeezed early, was tight into the first turn, two to three wide on that first turn, steadied a little on the backstretch, two wide the second turn, got held up a little at the end of the second turn. So he ran pretty well last time. so well i you know It's hard to get too weeks excited over the horse at that price. i
Eric Rubin: I do think Gilbane's going to run well, save ground, and have a very good chance here. I do like the 12 Classic Commander a lot. I actually, if we were picking, I would go 12 then 1 if we had to put picks out. ah There's a horse who's coming off a couple of races where I have big plus signs to upgrade the trips.
Eric Rubin: Two back and off to a slow start, granted. it was his own fault uh three to four wide trip uh was bumped at the end of turn one and steadied so i had a significant trouble and last time was to me just too short for this horse.
Eric Rubin: uh speed held also of and so the fact that he closed in a race that was too short for him i think And a race where there was speed holding, I thought that was really good for... uh classic commander so you know i like the 12 i like the one and i can see even just going too deep here I do like the 10 a little. I don't even, it's not that I like the 10 a lot. it ah The 10 has a chance off the drop. Again, it's maker dropping from main and special weight to main and claiming. Granted, state bred, so maybe not as big a drop as open company.
Eric Rubin: But still, this horse. rent. fairly I upgraded boat trips. I had a wine trip. against better chew back And then last time I was speed favoring, I thought that race and.
Eric Rubin: uh really didn't have much of a chance to close credit didn't run great but you definitely get a class relief here. So I think the 10 has a shot here. So I just have to decide if I'm going to go. two or three deep with those horses or I'm not going to talk about them like specifically because we don't have time, but the four, six, seven will be the others that I think have.
Eric Rubin: a little bit of a shot here so uh 12 one on my top two definitely the 10 would be like my next guy And then the 467 would be next. so Again, I'm singling two races here in the first leg and the third leg, most likely. And if I do that.
Eric Rubin: i said um And he went from too deep in the second leg to five deeps. Let's say one by five. is like the the biggest that would be in the pick five, let's say, by one.
Eric Rubin: by five. So we're talking about. $12 .50 a horse here. So for that, I'd probably just go six deep here and hope to catch a price. Uh, and then I might bet a little extra with the one in 12, you know, that would cost 25 bucks or something like that. so i think altogether it's still 100 bucks or whatever and i have a dollar to the 112 .50 to the 467. in 10. that's probably how i would approach this race in the p5 If I decided I was going to try and beat.
Eric Rubin: that cox horse in race seven. then i would probably just go 112 in this race and i'd have a single race nine so i'd be like you know six deep in the first or whatever, pretty deep. by, I'd probably cut down to two horses in the second leg, we said. by one horse in the third leg.
Eric Rubin: by five to be Caroline Street in the next leg. by just two in the last so i know it's i'm yelling out a lot of numbers so i'm sorry it's confusing but If I was trying to beat. the cock source in the first, I'd be something like six or seven deep.
Eric Rubin: by two deep in race eight, by single race nine. by about five deep in race, uh, 10, I couldn't even go to three deep. I don't even have to throw in those extra two, but I like to try and be the big favorite.
Eric Rubin: and then too deep in this last leg with the 112. So that's kind of how I would approach it. One way or the other, I'm going to play the pick five. I don't, I'm leaning towards just signaling the Cox horse. I just think that it's, you know, he's kind of a standout there, but anyway, as far as vertically betting this last race.
Eric Rubin: uh i'd probably even though i think the one's probably just as good as the 12. i probably key to 12 because of the price So I'd probably do 12 width. And similar to what I did last race, you gotta use fourth uh one four six seven to ten with the twelve so you know a dollar exact box cost me 10 bucks and then put the maybe 12 on top an extra dollar that's 15 you don't have to do that if you're betting someone like that or a similar way and then i bet extra 12 with 110.
Eric Rubin: put the 12 on top of them and then extra one 12 box and the 12 over the one more so If it comes in 12 -1, I'll have it a lot more times. And very similar with the triples. And that's how I'd approach. betting this race and Depending on what I'm alive with, if I'm alive, I can see Ben in the 12th to win it 6 -1 in this race. I don't see Ben in Jobin.
Eric Rubin: to win at 9 -5, but I do think the horse has a little legit chance here. and has a very good chance to win germany and just i think the 12 is pretty much as good a chance and i'm gonna get much better price so that's why i'm leaning toward the 12.
G Q: I ah Don't need to expand upon what you just said because I. I like the 12 as well for. Many of the reasons that you mentioned. Um...
G Q: As far as you didn't mention the nine, I'll just mention it. As far as a horse, I don't like either. The horse just you know has been at this level. his entire four race career. um After the first couple starts of just kind of just.
G Q: running evenly they added blinkers showed a little little bit more energy throughout the race but i don't know it just looks like a horse that is a follower you know horses are pack animals and some of them just Just don't like the pass. Everybody, they they they like following, and I'm going to put bourbon -centric in that mix. so That means...
G Q: Right to the winner's circle goes the nine -horse, Pervin Centric.
Eric Rubin: No, I don't think so. but
G Q: You don't think so.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, I hope it's 3 -1 because coming off a really good trip where... You know, probably didn't run as well as last time. Maybe the mile and eighth is stretching too far and going back to the mile will help. the non Merman centric, but. I'm against this horse in the app. Could the horse come to money? I mean, could the horse win? Yeah, I don't think so, but could.
Eric Rubin: Obviously, three to one second choice could win. could he come Could he come second, third? Yeah, but I'm... um okay taking a swing against and not using that horse especially if i'm using jomaine a nine to five i don't want to use a three to one just to protect myself or something like that so i'm i'm okay not using the horse
G Q: Yeah, and and you had briefly mentioned Maker's Horse, The Ten. ah Now you see me, now you don't. Lescano takes the mound again. I think...
G Q: Something may have gone amiss in that last race back in May. That's why you haven't seen him since. and the work tab indicates as well no workouts between that last start in may until August 30th and then He was back on the work tab.
G Q: i don't I don't put a ton of... Uh... Stock in how quickly they ran I'm more interested in are they more evenly spaced?
G Q: every seven to ten days apart and That's what's going on here. So... i I think... ah even though the speed figures when He did run the three times on the turf.
G Q: Don't quite match up to Gilbane. bourbon centric and even a Classic Commander. I'd give this one an outside shot at 10 to 1. Ciao.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and those speed figures were earned as ah a young three -year -old, so you know it's a little different now, but we'll see.
G Q: on. Yeah, that.
Eric Rubin: you know definitely and the price worth a shot.
G Q: Yeah.
G Q: So yeah, so Bye. I'm done. We're officially one hour and one minute plus in. ah So, Eric, do you want to say have any final thoughts?
G Q: I'm finished. Everyone have a good weekend.
Eric Rubin: No, thanks, sir.
G Q: Win some bets. Learn something.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, no. um Thanks. i a lot of times you know we go longer than we want to i hope you guys don't mind it out there And I... I get blamed a lot for it, but... Sometimes it's my fault. Today it was my fault. So I take the full blame for talking too much today on the show. So I apologize. but Hopefully you stuck around this long. If you did, we kind of just talked about taking construction, pick five, so I don't have to repeat that.
Eric Rubin: I wish you all good luck out there. If you're playing in the races, hope you stick with us next week. I guess we got one. Two weeks of the Breeders' Cup? Three weeks? I don't know. It's coming up soon, right? I meet you.
G Q: Um... Yeah, it's a Halloween so
Eric Rubin: Three weeks I think, yeah. Okay.
G Q: So three weekends.
Eric Rubin: Yeah. All right. So I'm sure we'll do something for that. We'll discuss, but anyway, good luck. If you're playing the races. Hope you do really well and we appreciate you listening. See you next week. Cha -cha!
