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2025 Sun Belt Bowl Recaps/Previews: G6/P4, JMU gets dumped, Troy flails, Arkansas State holds on
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We've got a jam-packed episode for you, as Brian and Zeke give their takes on the G6/P4 playoff discourse, as well as reviewing James Madison's trip to the College Football Playoff.
Outside of JMU, the pair break down Troy's paltry offensive effort against Jacksonville State, Louisiana coming up short against Delaware and Arkansas State outlasting Missouri State. The two finish up by previewing the remaining bowl games and will be back after the New Year.
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Transcript
Sunbelt's Historic Playoff Milestone
00:00:14
Speaker
Welcome everybody into another edition of Warm Weather Fans, the Sunbelt podcast. It is full on. We are into bowl season. We've seen a playoff game. The Sunbelt competed in its first ever playoff appearance on Saturday night.
00:00:30
Speaker
We'll get to that and we'll get to the bowl results. But before we do all that, Zeke, how's it going, man?
The Excitement and Challenges of Bowl Season
00:00:37
Speaker
It's good, man. ah We had a ah week full. It was awesome. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday, all Sunbelt games to watch. um so And, I mean, it just kicks off really all of bowl season. I don't – We've talked about before how we're glad that it was front loaded. But this kicks off, you know, just a month long football frenzy that I'm very, very excited to to watch over the coming month. um There were some interesting games, some close ones, some so some a little more disinteresting. You talked about ah the Sunbelts debut in the college football playoffs, which...
Do G5 Teams Need Undefeated Seasons for Playoffs?
00:01:15
Speaker
You know, the way things are going and the way the folks that ah in power are talking could maybe just be their last um if yeah ESPN had its way. So ah here's where we are. And I'm just I'm glad that we get to um work through them today.
00:01:33
Speaker
Yeah, unfortunately, um you know, we're going to get lumped. JMU is going to get lumped in with Tulane and how Tulane basically just mailed in a playoff game against ah a power five school. um And JMU is up and down. It was basically a tale of two halves, but they were down by so much they couldn't really make a game of it.
00:01:54
Speaker
Yeah, unfortunately, to the powers that be, they're probably going to say, if you don't kind of go undefeated as a G5 team moving forward, we're probably going to put in a Notre Dame, one of those teams that are like on the fringes moving forward. And it's, do I, do I want to see that? Of course not.
00:02:16
Speaker
And I've lambasted the the committee a number of times. um But yeah, it's, it's just unfortunate for us, like in the, in the G5 realm. And it's gotten to the point where it's like,
00:02:30
Speaker
I'm I don't want to see G5 playoff separated from the actual college football playoff. But people bitch about it so much that I'm kind of just like, fine.
00:02:41
Speaker
At a certain point, like, i mean, I have, you know, I have a five-year-old. There comes a point in my head where if she complains enough, I'm just like, fine.
00:02:52
Speaker
Like, unless it's something dangerous, I'm just like, right fine, you want to have that lollipop? That dum-dum lollipop? Sure, whatever. Like, if you complain enough, I'm just like, I acquiesce.
Should G5 and P5 Have Separate Playoffs?
00:03:04
Speaker
Like, I can't deal with it anymore. And like,
00:03:07
Speaker
The Josh Pates of the world, the Joel Klatz of the world, the her Kirk Herbstreets of the world. I'm like, you guys saw Notre Dame in the playoff last year. They made the championship game, but they were the most boring team of all time to watch.
00:03:24
Speaker
Did you want to watch that happen again? do we really think that they're going to put up a different fight if they're playing I don't know, Ole Miss. like They're probably getting beat similar to... Maybe a little more competitive than Tulane was. But they're not beating Oregon. They're not beating Ole Miss. So, like what other than just saying we want the TV dollars, what's the what's the drive behind that?
00:03:48
Speaker
I think i'm I think for now I've still got my guards up on a G5 playoff because to some degree it's like, it's not like you're watching the FCS playoffs.
00:04:02
Speaker
It's not like you're watching. like We already have that. We've already split division one up. um And again, the Joel Klats, the Herbstreets, the ESPNs, the Finebombs, they're not churning in to watch Montana State playoff.
00:04:16
Speaker
play. ah like what are They're not watching the the nearly decade of North Dakota State, South Dakota. um So it's like, what why offer that if you're just going
Is a P5 Exclusive League Like the European Super League?
00:04:30
Speaker
to... What really frustrates me, I think, is that It's I'm going to use they as a super all-encompassing. This means the SEC folks, the Big Ten folks, the teams, the talking heads. This means every, you know, it's a very broad stroke.
00:04:47
Speaker
But they are upset, and they want G5 kind of to no longer be a part of this. But they're saying, why why don't you, G5, do the legwork to do this? Create your own playoff.
00:04:59
Speaker
Instead, I think, how about you just do what you've been threatening for however long, create your Super League, go do this. We saw this in Europe several years ago, where it's like the Manchester Cities and the Chelsea's and the Liverpool's and the Barcelona's of the world were like, we're not happy that Croatia's second place team gets to compete with us and the Champions League.
00:05:22
Speaker
And so instead of – they didn't say Croatia, go create your own Croatian, you know, Balkan Super League. They said, all right, we're going to take on and create our own Super League. That fell apart. That was a whole thing like five years ago.
00:05:35
Speaker
I remember yeah. But they took burden on themselves. They said, we don't want this. We know that we can get more, so we're going to go create more TV revenue, more, frankly, just more eyes, a product that will have a more eyes per event event.
00:05:51
Speaker
kind of rating average. But they took that upon themselves. So i it baffles me, and I
G5 vs P5: Competing for TV and Playoff Spots
00:05:56
Speaker
don't understand it. I don't know if this is like a – I think you could really extract this into like a social commentary thing, and I'm not going to because I don't know how.
00:06:05
Speaker
But it's like you you have a problem, but you want me to fix it for you. You have a problem with me. Right. Hanging out – I'm one that needs to change. Yes. All of your friends like me, right but you don't like me.
00:06:18
Speaker
Right. So you tell me, hey, I need you to stop hanging out with those guys. What are we doing? I don't know. i I hate it too because it's like they want their cake and they want to eat it too. They want it basically to be separated.
00:06:35
Speaker
But when it comes time, you know, if they play like a nine game conference schedule, those other three games, they're like, hey, G5 teams, why don't we just throw you on the schedule? And it's like, wait a minute. Hold on.
00:06:47
Speaker
We're different levels of competition, right? In your eyes. So why, other than just paying us, why do you guys want to play a G5 team? We're dirt under you guys' fingernails. Like, what why would you even want to play us? Like, go play, you know, Notre Dame or whatever. You need ah you need ah a Marshall whatever to, like, fill your schedule. Yeah.
00:07:10
Speaker
go go play Miami, go go play, you know, Cal or something like, don't like what scheduling us. Like we're, we're nothing to you. Remember? Like you, you remember you saying that like when it came time to pick us for the playoffs. So like, you can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't say that, you know, Saban was like, these guys are basically triple a ball to MLB.
00:07:32
Speaker
And from ah that's such a flawed comparison because it's like, Well, wait a minute now. When did the Yankees get to go play the Louisville Bats? When did that happen during the during the baseball season? Oh, wait, they didn't?
00:07:45
Speaker
so it's It's the Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays are like the Oakland Athletics. It's like we're in the same league. You're spending the money. You're paying Shohei. You're getting one Soto for like $500 quadrillion dollars a year and then only paying him like a dollar a year for the next 10 years, yeah doing some weird accounting with it.
00:08:03
Speaker
But you're still you still have to go play Tampa. You still have to go play ah you know Oakland, I guess, are the two best examples. so So it's not. It's not like AAA and MLB.
00:08:15
Speaker
Because even in weak divisions, the division winner gets his playoff spot. right That's why we have the wild cards. It's such... like Do they not see it? Do they see it and ignore it? like what are what are Where's the dissonance here?
00:08:32
Speaker
That's what I said. They want their cake and they want to eat it too. They want to say, we'll throw you guys on the schedule for a free win. It's not always a free win. Go ask Notre Dame. Go ask Texas A&M. Go ask Nebraska. you know All of the teams. Vanderbilt. Yeah, Vanderbilt. like Tennessee going back years for Georgia State. like Go ask those teams. But they they want to schedule them and they want you to be on the schedule and they want it to count.
00:08:56
Speaker
You know, in the way that like an FCS team doesn't count toward your bowl total, which we saw apps suffer from ah years back. But then they but when postseason time comes along, they're like, oh, no, no, no. You guys aren't on our level. And it's like, well, wait a minute. We just played y'all
Can Liberty Change G5 Perceptions?
00:09:11
Speaker
and we're in the FBS. And they're like, no, no, no, no you're not.
00:09:13
Speaker
And so i i hate I thought about this. and This was like a shower thought I had today. And I hate that this has to happen. But I think what has to happen for them to change their mind, and this is the only example I could come up with. And unfortunately, i think this is what we would have to do as G5 teams to to get some um legitimacy.
00:09:34
Speaker
You have to have a team. and I'm just using Liberty because of their specific situation, you have to have almost an oversized, out-of-place G5 team that has all of this donor money and all of this NIL stuff, and Jamie Chadwell's the coach.
00:09:53
Speaker
I think you have to have a team like that go to the playoff and just spend out their rear end. and win a game because the normal G fives don't have those budgets. And there's a reason why Liberty does.
00:10:06
Speaker
And I'm not getting into all that, but I think sadly, that's, what's going to have to happen is like an oversized G five, like a Liberty who probably shouldn't be a G five. If you look at just money spent and things like that, they're going to have to just spin through the nose and eventually put it together and go 11 and one, 12 and O and then play in the playoff. And, and,
00:10:27
Speaker
you need viewers and everybody else to look around and go, Oh shoot. This team probably shouldn't be a G five, but we're there in a game with Florida state or something in the playoff. I don't know. All right. Let's move on to that. Well, ah real quick. I want, okay. No, can i I want to just shamelessly plug ourselves. Something you said on our Twitter, Jimmy beast. You just built that big old ah amusement park in Saudi Arabia.
00:10:57
Speaker
We'll call them the Southern Miss Beasts. No one will have a problem with that.
00:11:03
Speaker
No, ULM. ULM? No. Again, no qualms. Georgia State Beasts. It's fine by me. Turner Park or Turner Field needs a renovation anyway.
00:11:16
Speaker
yeah Let's get into the games. I'm sorry.
Troy's Quarterback Dilemma
00:11:18
Speaker
Yeah. All right. ah So Tuesday, ah Jacksonville State defeated Troy seventeen to thirteen um You know, Goose Crowder came out.
00:11:27
Speaker
um I think when i would when I previewed this, I didn't quite realize the extent to which his ankle was really messed up. I thought that... He had had enough time between the conference championship game and this game to heal enough to be able to play. And it just seemed like he he couldn't. I mean, he he tried.
00:11:46
Speaker
He tried to gut it out and it just didn't work. um Unfortunately, he's going to get by me. all right. Maybe you two is going to get slapped with the injury pro prone label. He's been injured both of the last two years. He broke his collarbone in 24 and ended up losing the starting spot late in the season to Matthew Caldwell, who who ran off a couple of wins. And then this year he gets hurt in the Memphis game. And then Tucker Kilcrease plays basically that middle chunk of the season, like six or seven games.
00:12:19
Speaker
And then Crowder came back and played a couple of games. They played pretty well. He played in the conference championship game and just took a beating. And now he was injured there. He's injured here.
00:12:31
Speaker
And I hate to say this, too. I'm dusting off an old take I had after the the Memphis game. I think if you're Jared Parker, I don't think you can have Tucker Kilcrease on this roster next year.
00:12:44
Speaker
To be dead honest, i you can't... Here's two things you can't do. You can't have an injury-prone starting quarterback the way that Goose Crowder is, and I know that the tackles are hurt, and I understand all that, but he puts himself in harm's way and during times where he probably should just give up on the play and throw the ball away and live to play another down. You can't have an injury-prone starting quarterback and a backup that is as...
00:13:13
Speaker
Have we seen a guy that has bigger a bigger disparity between his peak and his valley? Then Tucker Kilcrease could throw for 500 yards and four touchdowns against Texas State and win in overtime one week.
00:13:26
Speaker
And then the next week, he's, you know, two picks, 110 yards, mean... forty eight percent completion like i mean He completed 50% of his passes for 116 yards for two interceptions.
00:13:41
Speaker
His yards per attempt in this game was 4.8. He did have a ah longer a dot, but he wasn't connecting on any of them. Obviously, And so anytime he's out, you true. Anytime crowders that you truly have no idea what you're getting out of ah a kill crease. And the fact that you're only a score touchdown in this game was on a strip sack kind of reinforces that where it's like you already didn't have a running game with Tay Meadows and he's in the portal.
00:14:12
Speaker
um You're starting quarterbacks hurt. Both your tackles are hurt. And Killcrease doesn't hit that ceiling enough unless you're playing one of the worst defenses in the country, it seems like.
00:14:26
Speaker
Yeah, i I think it's a very cut and dry, um having looked at it, having followed this kind of Killcrease arc throughout the season. But when you look back at it, if you are...
00:14:41
Speaker
Jared Parker or Troy or whoever. Right. And you look back at it and you say, yeah, we had those valleys where he's throwing, you know, 60, if not below percent for 180 yards, no touchdowns and interception. And by the way, he's also taking like three sacks.
00:14:57
Speaker
Dude's an absolute statue in the pocket. Um, They went.500 with him at quarterback. Again, that's not right the bar for Troy. that They were just in a conference championship game.
00:15:08
Speaker
um But as a backup, a guy who, you know, it's not like Tucker Kilcrease is licking his chops, looking at the portal and saying, oh, which job am I going to take? yeah right It's going to be a pretty barren opportunity for him should he want to leave. So I think he...
00:15:24
Speaker
I think the the idea that he needs to be completely off the roster next year is a little extreme because he's shown that he can, at the very least, win games. You're right. It's against the ULMs. It's against the Texas State. It's against the South ah Alabamas of the world. um Troy did not score points really at all when they started to play the Old Dominions, the James Madisons. Even Arkansas State, they only put up 10 points against one of the, again, worst defenses in the conference. So I think he's still there. I think he's probably the backup next year. It's just a matter of, I think the bigger concern is you cannot start, you cannot go into next year thinking it's going to be Bruce Crowder. You simply can't.
00:16:10
Speaker
Well, okay. So it with what you just said about kill crease and what you just said about Crowder, you have to bring a third quarterback in who could play as the backup and maybe push to be the starter as well.
00:16:24
Speaker
It's like that's a tough sell for a guy coming in It's like, Hey man, um you can come in and compete. You could be anywhere from our starter to QB three. We'll just have to see.
00:16:35
Speaker
And I think a lot of guys would be like, Nope. um there are other places where I have more of a kind of a concrete opportunity. The reason I said that about kill crease is just because again, that's such a tough sell for a quarterback coming in to be like,
00:16:50
Speaker
you might push Crowder for playing time and you probably will play if you're our number two, but you might be behind kill crease at the end of the day. And we don't know. And I'm just like, we have two seasons of film on kill crease and he's more on the aid and our Minta side than he is like a diamond in the rough.
00:17:09
Speaker
um Braylon Braxton, you know, a Colton Joseph who was sitting behind someone else, an Alonzo Barnett who was sitting behind McLeod, one of those types of guys. So I'm just like,
00:17:20
Speaker
Right. If you need somebody in who's like a middle reliever in the MLB and can just like eat innings, then sure, Killcrease is your guy. If you need a guy when you need to score and you can you can't put the ball in the end zone against Jacksonville State, a team that is built around the run with a running back that wasn't in the game, didn't show up for the game, um it's pretty bad.
00:17:45
Speaker
and And so I'm just like... Okay, if you're Jared Parker, what do you do with the quarterback spot next year?
00:17:53
Speaker
I mean, I think you're There's what makes the most sense to us and what is going to happen. Right? And I think there's a disparity. I agree with your idea that it is a tough sell, so you've got to kick one to the curb between Crowder and Killcrease if you want to bring in a third guy. And it's pretty obvious to me which one should be kicked to the curb.
00:18:14
Speaker
Oh, yeah I mean, certainly, because at the very... Well, actually, I don't know, because... i'm In a world where you kick kill Kreese, right? Say you go, ah you get you bring in you know Joe 3-star as your QB1, Crowder behind him, knowing that Crowder can't stay healthy.
00:18:32
Speaker
QB1 goes down, Crowder comes in, you're three snaps away from playing Daniel Beal.
00:18:39
Speaker
Yeah, but sometimes it's a Samari Collier. I suppose. suppose. That's what I'm saying, though. would rather... i would rather This is like the opposite of that family guy mystery box question where it's like it could be anything, even a boat.
00:18:56
Speaker
It's like if someone offered you like. I don't know, broccoli that was uncooked and they're like, you can either have this uncooked broccoli or you could have whatever's behind door number three.
00:19:08
Speaker
Are you like, no, I'm crunching down on that broccoli. Are you like, I'm seeing what's behind door number three?
00:19:16
Speaker
I don't want Billy Wiles. I don't want Daniel Beal. I don't want, i there are so many bad quarterbacks.
00:19:25
Speaker
And I, I, I don't know. I think we've been really spoiled with these kind of diamond, not diamond in the rough, but needle in a haystack guys where it, it was hard to tell that Samari Collier was going to transfer from a community college and become the best quarterback on his team.
00:19:40
Speaker
Um, there's a 70% chance that doesn't work out. Right. So, well, that that's my point though, is like, you know, what kill creases he's played here for two years.
00:19:54
Speaker
Mm hmm. what are the chances all of a sudden he makes a huge jump in the off season and he's like an average level. He's the fifth best quarterback in the conference next year. Let's say Crowder goes down week three.
00:20:08
Speaker
What are the chances that kill crease has? Are the chances what you just said lower than your crease, making that jump and becoming the fifth best sixth best quarterback in the conference next year after game three, I would say those chances are more like massively lower than than the chances that they he's just magically figured it out in one offseason. And he's like, hey guys, I've been good okay to borderline unplayable for two years now.
Troy's Path to Improvement
00:20:37
Speaker
But this offseason, i'm I'm really putting my nose to the grindstone and figuring it out. And it's just kind of like, I guess, those I mean, that's just... To make that decision though, it's ah I think this is more of a question about how close is Troy, right?
00:20:52
Speaker
How close are they going to be back next year? Let's say you get the sixth best, you know, the league average quarterback. How close are they? Right. And do you need a guy like goose or a Tucker Kilcrease who, you know, can hold the fort down.
00:21:06
Speaker
He's not going to win you the conference title, but he's going to hold the fort down. Or are you willing to risk, that 70-30, 80-20, that you find that dominant. That's the evaluation that you have to run. How close is Troy with your league average quarterback? And we don't know that yet. We haven't seen the portal. We don't know what their recruiting class looks like.
00:21:25
Speaker
um But that's the evaluation. And I think if you think you're clo you know if you think you're the favorites to repeat in the west Maybe you roll out Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease again. It's not going to be sexy, um but you you have a finite floor.
00:21:42
Speaker
Whereas if you want to, if you think, you know, we're going to have a down year, we're going sneak into a bowl game, six, seven wins, Kick one out, say, you know, so pick whichever you like. They're both juniors. They can both still develop.
00:21:56
Speaker
um Pick your higher potential guy and say, you know, whatever D2 guy wants to come and try out for this job, whatever three-star local quarterback wants to ah come in and compete as redshirt freshman or something.
00:22:08
Speaker
um So it's an evaluation of how close is Troy. And I don't know. i I think just very, very gut reaction, having not seen the portal and not seen their recruiting class.
00:22:19
Speaker
um I don't know if they're that close. I don't know. I'm i'm a ceiling guy. like I would rather shoot for the moon and fail than just be like,
00:22:31
Speaker
No, I'm just laying up on a par four, and I'm hoping to just knock in for par here. You know what I mean? And just being like, all right, well, if we get the ninth best quarterback in the conference, we might you know we might beat Georgia State in South Alabama, and that'll basically be it for us, or ULM. I don't know. This was this is a bad performance, other than anybody on Troy's defense, you guys played well.
00:22:59
Speaker
Yeah. Jacksonville state did not play overly well. Like you said, Creel was sort of like a gimmicky, uh, guy that really only exists at the G five level. Cause he kind of lacks that ability to throw the ball consistently, um, and, and kind of put a team on his back. But when, when your opposition is only scoring 13 points, like it's really not that difficult.
00:23:20
Speaker
No, uh, this is the fewest points. Jacksonville state has scored in a win since like 2023. Um, You know, that this is so similar to Troy of two years ago, um where it's,
00:23:34
Speaker
the defense did their job. They showed up, they kept, i they allowed two touchdowns and a field goal. Um, but the offense just isn't there. And again, um that offensive line, uh, is decimated. I understand that, but there's just not a ton of rushing talent. There's some receivers that do interesting things. Um, we like Rara Thomas. We like, uh, Higgins has done some good things.
00:23:57
Speaker
Um, but there's just not a ton of rushing talent to surround or to alleviate the pressure on these, um, either unhealthy or, unsatisfactory quarterback play. um And this is just the same game script that we got from Troy over the past, you know, the later years of the summer all tenure when they, when the, when they won the conference, it's like the defense is great and that's exceptional, but like sometimes it's,
00:24:24
Speaker
You're like, man, we looking at how poorly Jacksonville State's offense played, we could have been Arkansas State, where our defense is paper thin. If Jacksonville State's only going to put up 21-24, if we're Arkansas State, we're right there.
00:24:38
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. So, I don't know. I think this was a... I'm glad that – I know that this is a kind of ah a newer rivalry with jacksonville coming ah Jacksonville State coming up in recent years, but this is a pretty big local rivalry for the two Alabama teams, and i' I'm very glad that we got to see it.
00:24:58
Speaker
Although Troy, again, just offensively disappointing. Yeah. um All right. Well, that ends Troy season, you know, eight and six, a Sunbelt title game appearance and lost to JMU. So, you know, good here overall, definitely, definitely outpaced what everybody kind of thought this Troy team would have been capable of heading into 2025.
Old Dominion's Ground Strategy and Future Prospects
00:25:18
Speaker
I'm getting up to this next one here. The Cure Bowl, Old Dominion beats South Florida, 24 to 10. Um,
00:25:27
Speaker
I didn't see. Okay. So I saw two different reports on South Florida's quarterback and I was very confused as to why Byron Brown didn't play for them.
00:25:39
Speaker
There's one train of thought that I read from like a radio station or something like an article that was like, he's holding out to go into the NFL draft. And I was like, I don't know about that.
00:25:52
Speaker
Let's let's pump the brakes here by by room. I think you're getting some bad information. And then there's like the other side where it's like he may transfer. He's not in the portal yet. He's on the sideline coaching the other players. And I'm like, what?
00:26:05
Speaker
either get in the game or get off the, like, what you know what I mean? Like this whole thing where it's like, he's a great teammate and blah, blah, blah. So I was, I didn't know what was going on with him going into this game, which is why I i favored South Florida.
00:26:17
Speaker
Quinn Hennigle did his normal um thing that he's done when he has started, which has basically been this game and, um, the Arkansas state game last year, he had nearly as many carries as he had past attempts.
00:26:30
Speaker
Um, he's definitely not anywhere close to being the pastor that Colton Joseph is. Uh, he profiles, I think more as you said it, like a Samari call your type, or maybe like a lunch Winfield type runner, uh, where he's just, uh,
00:26:46
Speaker
He's just kind of putting the volume of the carries on you. right um and then And then obviously the the five turnovers that Old Dominion forced was the difference in this one. you know South Florida between their trick play with Chase Leon, ah Lachlan Hewlett, and Gaston Moore all through four picks between the three of them.
00:27:05
Speaker
Um, and then they lost a fumble, uh, Christian Neptune, uh, for USF had a fumble. So that was basically all it was, was it was like old Dominion didn't shoot themselves in the foot.
00:27:16
Speaker
They ran the ball fairly efficiently. Um, and basically they would just wait for South Florida to kind of make a mistake and then they'd pounce. Um, and their defense was really kind of the backbone of why they won. I thought, do you know anything about how ESPN calculates its win probabilities?
00:27:35
Speaker
I have no idea. Because this is a chart that I simply can't understand. Despite only trailing in this game for...
00:27:48
Speaker
You know, made not much of this game. let Let me just put it that way. USF was favored for most of the contest. um Kind of in it and from what I'm seeing into parts where Old Dominion is ah winning the game.
00:28:04
Speaker
Old Dominion is here up fourteen ten and South Florida has 53% chance. um Okay, that's bizarre. To your Quinn Heineckle point, ahead. I think what it is is, is they factor in the favorite.
00:28:19
Speaker
Like, they kind of put their finger on the scale for the favorite with the win probability stuff, and they really are not convinced that the other team is going to beat the favorite until it's, like, out of reach.
00:28:32
Speaker
I think that's how they do it. Because I've looked at some of the charts before, and I was like, especially during upsets, you know, if, if Vanderbilt beats Alabama, you're like looking at it and you're like, but Vanderbilt was up 17 to seven, like in the second quarter, why is there wind probability like 40%? And it's like, Oh, cause Alabama was like an 11 and a half point favorite. So they just put their finger kind of on the scale of the wind probability based on, I think who is the favorite rather than what's actually happening in the game.
00:29:01
Speaker
That's bizarre and feels like it contradicts the the point of win probability. um Quinn Heineckel, good on his feet. He goes 107 yards on 24 carries, two touchdowns.
00:29:13
Speaker
um He's got the legs to replace Colton Joseph, and i I really think that's probably the most important point ah or part of replacing him. If you're going to roll out the same scheme where it's a lot of QB power, um a lot of...
00:29:28
Speaker
bash type stuff. um Again, I keep comparing It's kind of similar to what Georgia Tech does with Haynes King. You need a guy that can handle that amount of carries, a guy that can take that volume. And it looks like Quinn Heineckel can do that.
00:29:40
Speaker
Obviously, the passing, there's a lot to be left um left to be desired in that space. And um I'd imagine they bring in someone to at least compete for that job, a guy that can maybe is not as effective of a runner but can give you more than 45% through the air.
00:29:58
Speaker
um But right now, i mean, Old Dominion's been rolling with Heinekel as the backup for two years now, um and Joseph has been great in both of these years, so it's been you know ah just a countdown until he enters the portal. I would imagine Heinekel feels like he's got some pretty good job security going into the spring.
00:30:18
Speaker
Um, which which, which will be interesting. I guess this is, this is his team. Now his opportunity, um, from a defensive standpoint, this was great. Old Dominion's defense had been, ah really good this year. Um, really except for that James Madison game where they whooped them, but old Dominion, um,
00:30:40
Speaker
Against a good South Florida team, albeit without their quarterback and without obviously their head coach and goal issue is now at Auburn. um I think this is a really important win for old dominion.
00:30:50
Speaker
As we look back in retrospect on this season, because again, you and I have been maybe a little lower than some folks want us to be on old dominion. um I think when we come back in the spring, when we come back next fall and look back at it's like the,
00:31:07
Speaker
Aside from the, you know, i think the Marshall loss was really bad um from ah from a season-long perspective, but it's like you lost to James Madison who made the college football playoffs. um I can forgive you for that. You lost to Indiana who ended the season ranked number one.
00:31:23
Speaker
In the college football playoffs as well. In the college football playoffs, and again, the top-ranked team in the entire country. So Old Dominion with a weird year um considering that Marshall loss, but...
00:31:36
Speaker
i know We just did our reviewing our old takes thing where we looked back and it's like, even in that, I think I might have been too low on them. They played a great, great ball this year. um i just i i guess we'll have to find out how it operates without Colton Joseph.
00:31:52
Speaker
Yeah, this was a weird year, like you said, for Old Dominion. It's like, usually if you're 10-3 or ten and two you're in the conference title game, no questions asked. And they almost are like the the FSU team a couple years back that like got left out of the playoff and and we're and were great. There were reasons why that happened, and those are different from what happened to Old Dominion, but it's just like...
00:32:16
Speaker
Yeah, it's it sucks to have your peak of your like building toward this Colton Joseph run offense team with a good defense. And, you know, you finally got these pieces in at the receiver position and some running backs that could really play and and help Joseph out and take some of the weight off his shoulders.
00:32:35
Speaker
And you also did that in a year where there was a buzzsaw in the East that just literally cut through everyone and went undefeated in the conference. And it's just like wrong, wrong time. Basically, it was like right place, wrong time. ah If they had done this a year ago, i mean, they are...
00:32:52
Speaker
They're knocking on the the brink of being the ah the g five like highest bowl representative that isn't in the playoff. They were not going to be Boise State of last year, but they were going to be that team that plays ah a weird team in a bowl game. And you're like, how did they get to play you know Georgia Tech or whatever? like how How did that happen? Oh, wait. you know that That's how that happened. So, ah yeah, this was a great season for Old Dominion. um I do think...
00:33:21
Speaker
I'm not trying to be a hater. I just think if, if you do roll into next year with Hennicle as the presumed starter, unless he makes like a Brad Jackson move where all of a sudden it's like, Oh, I was much better of a pastor than anybody thought. I just didn't get the chance.
00:33:37
Speaker
Unless he does that, like the ceiling for this old dominion team is going to come down even with as good as their defenses. Um, that You can't have a guy complete 40% of his passes and and and still you know win 10 games or whatever. Yeah. so I mean, we saw, if we're comparing him to lunch or or to Smart Collier at Coastal, it's like we saw that that guy can win games. He can win games. He can win.
00:34:01
Speaker
i mean, he can get you to a bowl game in the case of kind of lunch with UL, and then Smart obviously got hurt later in the year and really only played like, what, four or five games total? Yeah.
00:34:13
Speaker
I mean, they they were rolling with him at quarterback. So it's it's sustainable for sure. But if you you're at this apex, if you want to stay here, it requires a big step up from Hennekel that, you know, I guess we'll find out come springtime, come early next year.
00:34:33
Speaker
Yeah, Hennekel, as far as the five quarterbacks in the Sun Belt that played this week, you know you had Rainer, Winfrey, Lunch, Kilcrease, Hennekel himself, and then Barnett. Hennekel easily had the lowest PFF passing grade of any quarterback of those five. I mean, he he was three points lower than Kilcrease, who we just said wasn't good, and he was like 10 points lower than Barnett, who...
00:34:59
Speaker
Also was not good, but played much tougher competition than, you know, old dominion did. ah So ah again, like I'm not trying to hate or anything. I'm just trying to be like realistic unless I i hear rumblings that he has taken like massive leaps as a passer.
00:35:16
Speaker
Um, this team might cap out at like eight and four next year if they're really like rolling. Um, so we'll have to see like how that all goes.
Louisiana's Bowl Game Struggles
00:35:26
Speaker
Uh, the next game here, the other one on Wednesday, ah Louisiana loses to Delaware, 20 to 13. Um, um,
00:35:34
Speaker
um Yeah, this was just a bunch of mistakes by Louisiana. You had a missed field goal, an end zone interception, a muffed punt that was recovered. And that all happened within the first 20 minutes of of the game. So, yeah, man, you just can't make those mistakes and still come out with a win. And, like, we've been higher than most people on lunch just based on what he's kind of accomplished.
00:36:01
Speaker
Yeah. he still is not really there as like a pastor to where it's like, Oh my God. Now I know he had five drops by his receivers, but that goes back to being the problem with kind of the team is it feels like desert Mo either has this really own team or that this, these pieces just did not kind of coalesce this season at all.
00:36:24
Speaker
I can't imagine that many teams are happier to close the season. Many bowl teams all say than Louisiana. um Obviously,
00:36:36
Speaker
one win Georgia state, you know, four wins South Al or whatever. Yeah. Uh, but of the bowl eligible teams across the country, I can't imagine more ready just to put this behind them in Louisiana, because this was especially after being in the conference championship game. And granted you had a much higher floor on your quarterback play.
00:36:58
Speaker
Um, obviously then until, uh, the championship game, but yeah, with Wooldridge and gosh, who was behind him, but fields. And so, I mean, you had one of the, a guy that I think one player of the year, right. Or offensive player of the year. And then yeah a guy that we said was probably a top 12 quarterback in the conference, but he was Louisiana's backup in Chandler fields. Oh yeah. Yeah.
00:37:21
Speaker
Yeah. To kind of come down here, a lot of this falls, we've said all year, a lot on the offensive line. um I think I calculated it's like something ah Perry, Zylan Perry and Bill Davis averaged like 0.8 yards before contact in this game, which is just obscene. um Lunch has...
00:37:40
Speaker
Now, this is deceiving. Lunch has the one of the highest your time to throw in the conference, but that's because he's just so darn mobile and can evade pressure. um Kind of uniquely, it's him, Rayner, and Colton Joseph kind of in that top three, and no one else comes close just because those guys can move.
00:37:57
Speaker
um this is no I mean, Delaware only scored 20 points. This is kind of just like Troy. It's like the louis Louisiana's defense did their job. um They got to the quarterback. They made tackles behind the line. um they They did that job, but three turnovers cost them.
00:38:16
Speaker
You talked about the muff punt. You missed the field goal. um And you just an inability to get anything on the ground puts such a cap on any team, especially a team with a quarterback that's, you know, passing-wise, good.
00:38:31
Speaker
but he gets like a b a B minus grade in that department. it It doesn't help that the year that you're receiving core is not exactly stellar. Your quarterback is also not Ben Woldridge or Chandler Fields.
00:38:46
Speaker
I think that's a bad, i mean, I'm not breaking any new ground by saying, I think that's a bad combo to have a guy that's offline a little bit, throw in the ball. And then also a receiving core where it's like, are these guys good?
00:38:58
Speaker
Anybody of this group? Yeah, i mean they've got to I mean, they've got to to turn it around next year. This is – Desermo does because the expectations are so darn high here at Louisiana. And I i don't know. i He's certainly not on any sort of hot seat, but – don't know. It's going to start getting warm, right? I think he's going to, especially because we're seeing so many coaching changes in the last few years. So many guys are so new ah to their jobs. It's like he's going to have maybe one of the three hottest seats going into next season um because he's done a fine job at a program that needs more than just a fine job. This is not an Arkansas state where you can be Butch Jones going six and seven, seven and six and ah live forever.
00:39:48
Speaker
Can I tell you one thing, too, that's not going to help? What's that? he comes out and they're 6-6-ish again, they're hovering around bowl eligibility, and Napier comes out at JMU with presumably... i don't know what their portal situation is going to look like. I don't know how many guys are going to bolt for greener pastures um or how many are going to go to UCLA with ah Chesney.
00:40:12
Speaker
But if he if Napier comes out and he's crushing it, that's going to look really bad for Desert Mo like optics wise to be like, oh, yeah, we were really only good with Billy's players, I feel like. And once those guys kind of filtered out and it was time for him to coach up like a new offensive line with these receivers that weren't left over from the previous regime, it didn't go very well.
00:40:36
Speaker
That's going to be tough to stomach, I think, for a lot of Cajun fans. we We talked about this during the year, um especially as Florida started to falter. And then when he eventually got fired, it's like, I don't know if you can openly negotiate. I don't know what the contract and you know rules are regarding that, but it's like,
00:40:54
Speaker
There was a world where you just say, Desermo, you know, either demote yourself or or find another job. um i'm I'm curious if Louisiana reached out.
00:41:05
Speaker
Do you think they ever gave him the call? I don't know if they can. They never gave him a call? I can't imagine that they ever called him. to say To say what? like i I don't know what their financial situation is like. like um I just think it's tough for them financially to probably come in and and fire a sitting coach and then hire up a guy who was making like a good chunk of change at a UF.
00:41:33
Speaker
even if he's like your Even if he's your coach coming back, I think that's just really tough to stomach. Now, if this was the year, if this was two years from now or a year from now, and they had really bottomed out, I think you could make that switch.
00:41:47
Speaker
But what like one year removed from being the Sunbelt title game for Desermo, there was no way they were ever going to fire him yeah after this season unless they went 1-11.
00:41:58
Speaker
um i i think that's too much to stomach like financially so sure um all right so that was that game uh then we had arkansas state almost allowing kind of a fake ish comeback by uh missouri state they did finish you know within six points but You know, Arkansas State kind of dominated ah for three quarters of this game. I mean, it was 31 to 7 going into the fourth quarter.
Arkansas State's Defense: Key to Victory?
00:42:28
Speaker
And then Missouri State scores 21 points at the end of the game to kind of make it, I guess, appear more competitive than it really was. But... i I don't know, man. Like, this was a good performance by the offense. Defensively, these are still some of the issues I have where it's, like, outside of the pass rush sometimes.
00:42:46
Speaker
Mm-hmm. We don't really have anybody in the secondary or you know, anything like that that really makes a difference, so. I mean, you said sometimes Arkansas State, eight sacks in this one. um That unit has just come absolutely alive. And I, again, It's hard to tell if it's coaching, if it's personnel, if it's like the D-line coach or if they're drawing it up, but that unit has been critical to Arkansas State's success over the past several weeks. And um probably a big, not probably, is a big reason that they're in a bowl game to begin with. they I mean, they upset Troy um that we now know, ended up in the conference championship game. Yeah.
00:43:25
Speaker
you know This team lost to some bad teams in Louisiana, in ULM. um to Again, just so critical to this team. the real only well There were a couple things I was watching for in this game. The first one was, of course, Corey Rucker.
00:43:41
Speaker
um We talked about if they force-feed him, ah he can become ah one of the the highest receiving most reception leaders, one of the reception leaders in Sunbelt history. I don't know why that's tripping me up so hard.
00:43:54
Speaker
ah They get him six catches for 166 in this game. So he's going to finish third all time in Sunbelt receptions. ah Before this game, he was already the conference's all time leading receiver.
00:44:06
Speaker
Um... He could have. It would have been a big ask. I think he would have had to get like three catches more per game this season, but could have finished as the all-time receptions leader in the conference. He would have surpassed.
00:44:21
Speaker
I know it's J.D. McKissick at the top. I don't know who's second, um but I think it it might be Sam Pinckney's second. I think it was Pinckney, yeah.
00:44:32
Speaker
But that that was one of the big things I was watching for, is just like how how is he going to finish his career? Because he he, for the first six weeks of this season, really nowhere to be found. He turned it on. He turned into himself in the back half, you know kind of corresponding with the defensive line success where he was back to six, seven catches for 80, 90 yards a game.
00:44:53
Speaker
um So you know it's just good to see a guy like that go out on top. um And then obviously I just you know i tweeted about this. Master Chief and Butch Jones. um That gives Butch Jones some cool points that he just does not defense. I don't want to imagine sitting down with Butch Jones and be like, all right, so who's going to drive the Warthog? Like that's not something I want to have to imagine, but now I do. um
00:45:25
Speaker
That was a really fun and, you know, kind of, I think the Pop-Tart Bowl is and now the Xbox Bowl, they're the ones keeping this bowl game dream alive as we talk about, again, the powers that be dismissing bowl games um as an accomplishment or something worth even participating in. So I really enjoyed you know that extracurricular part of it.
00:45:47
Speaker
Yeah, Butch Jones is is looking at Master Chief going, you want to go hunt the the ah heretic this summer? like we can We could get like a tree stand together and everything else. um Or the flood, maybe. ah I loved the the championship, or not the the trophy that they gave Rucker with like the achievement unlocked player of the Xbox player the game. Loved that. Yeah, that was awesome. They they did a great job with the branding, like really leaning into it. You've seen other bowls do that, like the I guess the Cheez-It Bowl to some extent, the Duke's Mayo Bowl where they slimed the guy out like with the mayo at the end of the game. like That's insane. um
00:46:26
Speaker
Yeah, they did a great job with the branding and everything. This was a good win for Arkansas State. Like you said, the pass rush was there. ah Secondary was a little soft. I mean, Missouri State's quarterback threw for 349 and four touchdowns. So it wasn't exactly like...
00:46:40
Speaker
you know They were doing a great job. like Fourth quarter was rough for them, basically. ah And for some reason, ESPN is not letting me pull up the box score of this game, so I have no stats other than the leaders for every category. It just keeps telling me there's not a box score. Yeah.
00:46:57
Speaker
I don't know why. um um I think yeah I've got it here. ah Some notes. Arkansas State did not run the ball well, 2.8 per carry. Kenyon Clay leads with 11 for 53, which is actually pretty darn good. But then you look at Devin Spencer was six for 20-some-odd. Chauncey Cobb had to carry. Four team carries.
00:47:18
Speaker
I can understand one or two. what do you mean four? guy Like, wait, that's crazy to me. um And I tweet about this as well. Jalen Rayner, only three. And I think that's something I want to talk about.
00:47:31
Speaker
They've been phasing him out of the run game over the past couple weeks. And I really don't understand why, because that is what makes him so good. He's a great passer. He was 17 for 31 in this game for 288, three touchdowns, no interceptions.
00:47:48
Speaker
um I'm not, I'll find out if he took any sacks. He took two sacks. um So he he played, he's an excellent passer. But he has this another level that not a lot of guys at this level do. It's like you are either a runner or a passer.
00:48:05
Speaker
You look at like it's him, Brad Jackson. It's Colton Joseph and Brad and maybe Barnett sometimes. Barnett if he wants to have a good game. you know If he gets in a rhythm or whatever seems to be the the juice there.
00:48:17
Speaker
um we're Everyone else is either a runner or a passer or we're kind of finding out A lot of them are just not good. Neither.
00:48:28
Speaker
Some of them are just. tad how digs They exist. They take. yeah yeah So I don't understand if that's a protecting him There could be an angle of, we don't want you running the ball here late in the season. We know we're not contending. Get us to the bowl game.
00:48:45
Speaker
Um, We still want you to play obviously, but don't get hurt. There's an angle to that. Um, but it was a trend that we kind of saw in the back half of the season as they started, as the other parts started to improve.
00:48:57
Speaker
Um, they, they took weight in the run game off of Jalen Rayner, chicken or the egg. ah Are these other parts is Corey Rucker, for example, performing better because Rainer's taking the ball less or is Rainer taking the ball less because Corey Rucker is finally starting to show up.
00:49:13
Speaker
Um, Hard to tell, it really. Not a way to kind of discern that. But as we look at Jalen Rayner, what will be probably his final season next year at Arkansas State um as he enters his senior year,
00:49:29
Speaker
That's going to be something to follow. is do they Do they keep declining this? Do they try to make it a little more normal where you're throwing the ball 30 times? Yeah, you're running eight, nine times for 40, 50 yards, which is excellent, excellent for a quarterback at any level.
00:49:45
Speaker
Or are they going to lean into what this guy can really do and throw the ball 25 times give him 12 carries? i think I think, honestly, if the running game is as poor as it was this season and it's his last year, I think they're going to go all out. I think they're just going to run him as much as they want to because it's like, what do we have to lose? He's not coming back again in 27.
00:50:08
Speaker
Again, like the reason it's so baffling, I think, to add to your point is they don't have a running game. They cannot run the football. so Basically, when you take that element away from Jalen Rayner,
00:50:21
Speaker
it you're a one-dimensional football team you're throwing the ball almost every down or you're doing the equivalent of like taking the ball and spiking it like as soon as you snap it because you're not getting anything out of spencer clay cre cross i don't know what his leg is going to be like next year when he comes back i don't know if he's going be healthy it seemed like he tore it pretty early um but you never know the like the recovery timelines on those guys. If he doesn't come back and play or they don't find somebody in the portal or have like a young guy take that spot, like it could be another rough season like this one where it's like, if Butch Jones isn't going to find any answers in the secondary and they're not going to have a running game on offense, like that's pretty tough to stomach. the The reason they won eight games last year is because they were very like balanced. And if you lose that balance and your secondary isn't good, then you're just a team that's giving up a ton of points and having to win every game
00:51:14
Speaker
a la Texas state. Like every game's got to be 49 45. And that's just not like a winning formula. You can't win like that. Yeah, that's where we're at with them. um And then the last game here, Oregon defeated James Madison 51-34.
JMU vs Oregon: Talent Gap and Determination
00:51:30
Speaker
This was like a real tale of two halves. um You know, Oregon came out blazing. They scored 34 points in the first half.
00:51:38
Speaker
Dante Moore was kind of doing whatever he wanted. He actually finished the game 3-13 and four scores. ah They were running the ball. I tweeted this out from our account during the game.
00:51:50
Speaker
JMU was getting killed on the perimeter. If there was a swing pass or a screen or like a toss or anything like that, their corners were like not really ready to tackle anybody. And you saw it. There was a big catch and run. I can't remember who for Oregon did it.
00:52:05
Speaker
Maybe it was Benson. Someone caught screen in the first half and just turned and stiff armed. the JMU corner like five yards away and just ran for like 30 yards. Their safety, JMU safety was like, I thought was going to be their leading tackler at the end of the game because everybody was just getting to the third level and it was just him and taking an angle and cutting a guy off at the sideline.
00:52:30
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, At risk of playing into the narrative, I think a really big part of this is just ultimately Oregon had better athletes. I think what really describes that or or makes that point very strongly is when you look at James Madison's defensive stats up front.
00:52:49
Speaker
No s sacks in this one, two tackles for loss. That's been James Madison's bread and butter for like three years now. through two coaches, Signetti and then into Chesney, this team is going to get to your guys behind the line or or in the pocket.
00:53:05
Speaker
ah And they were just getting mauled. Obviously, it's a little harder when Oregon was playing a lot of quick game stuff, um playing you know what Oregon has historically done in very um modern read RPO type stuff. Spread it out.
00:53:19
Speaker
Yeah, throw it. Like I said, throw it out on the perimeter a lot or like guys out to the edge. Yeah, so so you're not going to get the opportunity to to make a play in the backfield as often when you're doing that, when you're playing quick game like that.
00:53:32
Speaker
But those guys were getting mauled. As you said, the speed of the perimeter guys, the corner versus wide receiver matchups, the strength of those guys, of the wide receivers just, as you said, putting ah corners into the ground, um running back, shedding guys off ah kind of at the second level.
00:53:48
Speaker
Carrying guys two to three yards after they've basically jumped on the guy's back. I think I saw that a couple of times. I think that's the reality of where we are. Does this make the points that we were making at the beginning of the video or of this episode ah stronger? No, they probably weaken our arguments in the fact that, you know, it doesn't matter if the Yankees are playing the Rays.
00:54:08
Speaker
um The Rays, you know, we can all still be upset if the Rays win the division. and still suck, right? we Although, you know, they had that year a couple years ago where they were in the World Series. um the That was it. that It was just better athletes. I think other than Wayne Knight, no one from James Madison played particularly jaw-droppingly well. Alonzo Barnett turned it around. The defense, no one was...
00:54:35
Speaker
piss poor. They were just getting manhandled, basically. There was like no other... and and It wasn't like a knock against JMU. They just are not... Here's here's what here's what i will say, and this gives credit to a previous JMU team.
00:54:52
Speaker
I think what we're were're seeing now... is the 2023 JMU team with Signetti and like all those guys that transferred to Indiana. I think what we're learning is that they were a a good team like in the way that those guys can go on and play at P5s and compete and like really contribute to the number one team in the country.
00:55:14
Speaker
And then you look at a team like this, and I think they're just normal good, like really good. They're not those guys that feel like, oh, all of these guys could move up like to the Big Ten and be okay and like be able to compete. like We kind of saw you watch them play a real Big Ten team, and you're like, oh...
00:55:32
Speaker
It's not. the the Yeah, it's like we competition's not really there. I mean, we'll probably see. i don't know if we're going to get the mass exodus that Signetti got, but we're going to see this at UCLA. I don't think Bob Chesney is going to turn UCLA into the number one team in the country within the next two or three years.
00:55:48
Speaker
um yeah I don't know if they'll ever be ranked under Bob Chesney. That's a big ask for him from a program that struggled a lot in recent years. Um, but that will kind of be the litmus test of, uh, when we, we will have the hindsight, the, the, the 2020, um, retrospect view next year when we get to say, well, how are these guys handling? Right. Um, if Wayne Knight, for example, who again has just been going absolutely nuts the past several weeks, if he goes to UCLA and he's playing, um, are they big, they're big 10? Yes. They're one of the California teams that came over.
00:56:24
Speaker
Yeah. You know, if he's doing that against the the Michigan States and the the Michigans and the Ohio, you know, i don't think he's big enough. Honestly, I think that's I know he's got talent. I definitely agree. I just think like a school like that, even with Chesney over there, I think he might look at them and go,
00:56:44
Speaker
I like Wayne. He's a great guy. He might be able to play on third downs for us as like a Darren Sproles type player. He's not going to be running between the tackles against like Ohio state on Saturday. I'm sorry.
00:56:55
Speaker
No, I think you're right, but this this is to make the point more generally of like, it could be him, DeGennaro, who knows about Alonja Barnett. Maybe they bring him along. There's any number of guys on the defense that could maybe be brought along. ah Their performance next year at UCLA is really going kind of reflect of how good was this JMU, from a talent perspective, how good was this JMU team actually.
00:57:19
Speaker
i don't think they're ah again i don't I don't think they're on the level of basically the Indiana team last year and this year, and then 2023 JMU, which largely became that Indiana defense, especially. um Sure.
00:57:32
Speaker
Yeah. So let's move on to the games that we have coming up. We're just going to go ahead and run through all of the bowl games, and then we're going to take off until after the new year because these bowl games are so spread out at this point.
00:57:44
Speaker
ah So you will hear us come back after January 2nd and the ah the Armed Forces Bowl wraps up and then we'll talk about all of these games that we had. So Tuesday, December 23rd, we've got Western Kentucky taking on Southern Miss Western Kentucky is a two and a half point favorite.
00:58:01
Speaker
I think I got to go with Western Kentucky. ah Southern Miss went out really sad at the end of like this year. And originally I thought they lost the Texas state game because Braylon Braxton didn't play and they couldn't sustain drives with Landry Liddy.
00:58:15
Speaker
Then I watched them play in the finale against Troy. And I was like, Oh wait, no, they're just, something is wrong with this team. And like, maybe Braxton wasn't fully healthy. I don't really know what the deal is, but I can't trust the Southern Miss team at this stage, especially, you know, Charles Huff's already in Memphis.
00:58:34
Speaker
Your OC is now your head coach. I i just, there's too much in flux for me to feel good about, especially where this team ended the season. I agree with you with the the coach exodus already happening there. um And a lot of that Marshall Culler shine that carried them through You know, the first three quarters of the season ah up until kind of those last two weeks where they dropped games in consecutive weeks to South Alabama and Texas State, and then ultimately lose to Troy in the conference championship game. We've seen the last year Southern Miss paint start to peek through.
00:59:08
Speaker
um And again, we we talk about the infrastructure and the bones of this team. is It's still Southern Miss, and that's how it works. you know You're not going to change the bones of a team in one year.
00:59:19
Speaker
um I like Western Kentucky in this one. um The line is 2.5 in Western Kentucky's favor. Although, of note, ESPN has a Southern Miss as 51.4% chance to win.
00:59:33
Speaker
um again i don't these I mean, both lines at two and a half points, it's a pick them anyway. So I like Western Kentucky in this one. And I don't even really know that much about this year's Western Kentucky team, but I'm like, if they're a normal eight and four team, the way that so Southern Miss backslid, I just don't, I don't see them being able to beat like a normal football team at this point. I mean, they were losing to some not great competition at the end of the year. Like, I don't know. Uh,
01:00:03
Speaker
Next one, my game, the Birmingham Bowl, ah December 29th, Georgia Southern takes on App State.
Birmingham Bowl Preview: Georgia Southern vs App State
01:00:10
Speaker
ah Another reason I'm not excited that I told you before we started recording, both AJ Swan and JJ Cole have entered the portal, so we're either getting a Billy Wiles or Noah Gillen start against Georgia Southern, who is also owen three in bowl games under Clay Hilton and has lost to...
01:00:29
Speaker
interim coaches that never became head coaches. ah Ohio, in that case, I mean, lost to Brandon Bailey, who fielded one of the worst defenses in college football this year when they played Buffalo in year one. I mean, it's just like he will find he can find a way to lose. So I'm at...
01:00:46
Speaker
stoppable force meets movable object territory uh i think southern wins you can flip a coin on that i truly don't feel great about it either way but i i just am like if we're getting a third string quarterback man like whatever excitement i may have had is is gone Sure. I like Southern in this one, too. We saw, obviously, they ah beat App earlier in the year when they played in early November, so that's obviously something to consider.
01:01:15
Speaker
um And again, that was in a full-strength App team. ah i App's wins, which came few and far between, and they two of them included Charlotte and Lindenwood at the start of the year.
01:01:27
Speaker
um relied a lot on good quarterback play. Let me give you the yardages for of quarterbacks ah in those games. Against Charlotte, Swan so throws for 368.
01:01:38
Speaker
ah He goes for 294 against Lindenwood. And then you get J.J. Cole, 218 against Oregon State, 309 against Georgia State. You get an outlier here at the end. Cole goes 134 against Marshall.
01:01:51
Speaker
um But I think maybe both, they had a backup. Let me check here. Excuse me. No, he was 19 for 27, the only quarterback in that one. But Apple relied on quarterback play. um They were not a ULM where you can sometimes sneak wins ah despite poor play out of that position. So I like Southern here. um I'd like to see them.
01:02:17
Speaker
We won't see it, but I'd like to see them give Weston Bryant some time. I'd like to see, um you know, just kind of the options outside of Arnold, outside of Camden Brown, the guys that are, you know, kind of filtering out. I'd like to see the offensive weapons and what that looks like. I also want to see a marked improvement from the defense. I know you can't turn water into wine, but That's not going to happen. but yeah I don't know. Again, we're yeah we're using defensive coordinator as a scapegoat um you know because those are the first chips to fall before it's eventually the head coach. If we're putting it on the coordinator, um you have a change here now. I'd like to see something positive.
01:02:57
Speaker
You can't turn water into wine, but ah something has to change there or else it's going to be the same damn thing next year. Right. ah I think in this game, I don't think it really matters. I i have seen Billy Wiles play at Southern Miss and a little bit here against Southern Miss this year. And then I've seen Noah Gillum play too.
01:03:19
Speaker
um I think a lot of Georgia Southern's defensive stops on Monday are going to come from bad throws, killing drives, taking sa you know taking a sack, it waiting seven seconds in the pocket and getting... getting sacked things like that i think and russell westbrook avert your ears for this one i if georgia southern wins it's good it's going to be an app state loss and not a georgia southern win right um tuesday december 30th i have not been able to find i assume samari collier's not suiting up for this game i have no idea who's going to start at quarterback for coastal i mean we could ask him
01:03:57
Speaker
Maybe. ah He apparently is applying for another year of eligibility with the NCAA. I don't know if that's going to be granted. Now, I don't know if they count it.
01:04:09
Speaker
he played half the year. He, but he didn't start early because he just didn't start. Not because he wasn't healthy. And then he only missed kind of two games, three games at the end of the season. Uh, I would like to see him back for another season, but do I think the NCAA is going to grant that? No, I don't sadly. ah so,
01:04:29
Speaker
This might be a Tad Hudson start Louisiana tech future. Um, some belt member is a nine and a half point favorite. I'm taking Louisiana tech. If Samari Collier can't go, which I haven't seen anything that said he can.
01:04:42
Speaker
I don't like any of the other options at quarterback for coastal. Um, Yeah, I don't know. kid ah I mean, if Tad Hudson flounders like we anticipate, you get to turn to MJ Morris.
01:04:55
Speaker
Awesome. That's just great. Glad we're doing that. I like Louisiana Tech. um This is going to be my first time watching them with a real eye. um ah Again, you mentioned future Sunbelt team joining the conference next year. Yeah.
01:05:12
Speaker
I don't know. i I'm sure the conference is all over this. I can't imagine the individual teams are looking at it. But for me, this is this is a fun introduction ah to a team that we're going to have to become acquainted with very quickly. So i'm very I'm looking forward to it a lot and probably more so than any of the four remaining bowl games that we have.
Texas State's Farewell Performance Against Rice
01:05:31
Speaker
this is ah And then the the last game I have here, or that we have here, the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, ah it is Texas State taking on Rice. Rice, you may remember, beating ah Louisiana in the first game of the season, 14-12. They run sort of an option-style offense, which is you know a neat little wrinkle. But...
01:05:54
Speaker
but They have not been a good team this year. They've lost games to Florida Atlantic, ah UTSA, ah North Texas and South Florida put a combined 108 points on them in the last two games of the season. I think that Texas state ends their Sunbelt tenure with a W. um I think they, they put a lot of points on rice. And if rice is running that option style, that is not a recipe for success when you run that style of offense. Cause once you get down two scores, it becomes panic city.
01:06:30
Speaker
Um, Take it from a former option guy who's rooting for an option team. Uh, Brad Jackson's gonna have a field day in this one. Uh, he's got 3,050 yards on the year.
01:06:42
Speaker
I think he ends the season having thrown for 340 yards or 340, 340, 3,400. I can't talk, man. Um, which, which is great because we host a podcast. Um, yeah, I, I think he throws for over 300 in this one and he's such a great runner. He could add 80 on the ground and I wouldn't blink about it. yeah,
01:07:06
Speaker
But he's he's gonna be i going to keep an eye on him even as Texas State departs, despite all of our gripes towards them and you know readiness for them to let the door hit him on the way out.
01:07:18
Speaker
I'm really excited to watch him over the next couple years because he is Colton Joseph-esque in terms of play style, in terms of ability from what we've seen, ah and he's doing it as ah as a redshirt freshman.
01:07:31
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, so I think they end their tenure with OW over Rice. um And then good luck in the Pac-12, I suppose. ah Zeke, as we wrap up here, any last thoughts and tell folks where they can find you on socials?
01:07:47
Speaker
No, man. Thank you all so much for watching. um this This will be our last episode, as you hear it, of 25. We'll come back early 26. um To re recap, obviously, these games will probably do... I don't know what our a draft looks like this year. Last year, it was really only Mike Green was the only guy of interest. I don't know if we've got anyone...
01:08:08
Speaker
we We definitely don't have anybody of that caliber. ah that I've seen some draft stuff. Somebody who's a Georgia Southern and Miami Dolphins fan sent me this mock draft, ah and I think they were in the fifth round. They had Camden Brown going to the Patriots. And so the guy tagged me and was like, if I have to watch Drake May catch bombs from Camden Brown, I'm going pull blow the rest of my hair out. And I it's like i was like, yeah, that would be sick. ah I haven't seen a lot of draft stuff for... um who we've had in the Sun Belt year. Yeah, I mean, I think the big three, this is probably excluding some really good defensive seniors and some really good offensive linemen um because it's hard to get a real grasp of what they look like draft-wise. But I think it's reasonable. Hurst could maybe go as a UDFA, um you know, in that he's either day three UDFA, um Rucker, and ted and as you said, Camden Brown. So maybe we ah have some... ah
01:09:10
Speaker
preseason snaps from Sunbelt guys. Again, dude, i all day I've been working at like five miles an hour mentally. I don't know what's up. But other than those three, I'm sure there's linemen or you know safeties or something that we're we're not thinking about, but...
01:09:26
Speaker
Um, so anyway, I say all this to say this wraps it up for 25. We'll be back in 26. Of course, to wrap this up, talk about some of the off season stuff. We'll talk about the portal, keeping an eye on Colton Joseph, where he goes, um, following the Exodus out of JMU.
01:09:42
Speaker
Uh, but maybe then in Exodus in from Florida or maybe not. I don't know how they, those players feel about them, but, ah thank you all so much for watching us this year. Yeah, as always, you can find the show on Twitter at Warm Weather Fans. You can follow me on X at WatchTheStone and obviously our TikTok at Warm Weather Fans, YouTube, Warm Weather Fans. ah Yeah, as Zeke said, we will be back next year technically ah to talk about the end of this bowl season and maybe any other news that may crop up in coaching stuff or transfer portal stuff. We'll hit on that as well. But thank you all for tuning in. This has been Warm Weather Fans.