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NFL Week 13 DFS Final Look & Contrarian Plays
86 Plays11 months ago
Welcome to "The DFS Deli," where we serve up a hearty helping of fantasy football insights! In this week's episode, we're diving deep into the top contrarian plays for Week 13 of the NFL main slate. Join us at the DFS Deli as we break down the under-the-radar picks that could make all the difference in your daily fantasy lineup.
Our expert hosts will analyze player matchups, recent performances, and key statistics to uncover the hidden gems that might be flying under the radar. Whether you're a seasoned DFS veteran or a newcomer looking for a competitive edge, "The DFS Deli" is your go-to destination for actionable tips and strategies.
Tune in to discover the sleeper picks and contrarian plays that could set your lineup apart from the competition. Don't miss out on the opportunity to feast on fantasy success – join us at "The DFS Deli" for a weekly serving of winning insights!
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Transcript
Introduction to DFS Deli Week 13
00:00:01
Speaker
Welcome on into week 13 to the DFS Deli as we take the final look and the contrarian plays to get you to the top of your tournament leaderboards. So pull up a chair, grab your favorite beverage, and come on into the Deli as we welcome in week 13. Here we go.
Meet the Hosts: Late-Night Vibes
00:00:37
Speaker
Welcome in to the DFS Deli. I, of course, am the proprietor of this delicatessen, Salah Ali Shahid, and it is a late-ish Saturday night as we begin to take our final descent into week 13, the main slate on the NFL menu. I am joined tonight, of course, by my main man, Chill. Chill, welcome back to the Deli. Baker wanted to come in to work late, but
00:01:02
Speaker
The owner's tired, so I need to upload and get some rest. You guys like to get into the weeds late Saturday night. I like to sleep it off, collect my final thoughts, and tinker my lineup from there. You got a nice base, a nice foundation, as it were. But not everything is stone. Not everything's set in stone. But after you and I have a conversation with the listeners and the viewers, I think we'll be able to make some nice tournament determinations
00:01:32
Speaker
for tomorrow to get us to the top of the leaderboard.
From College Football to DFS Strategy
00:01:35
Speaker
So, of course, chill. What's going on on Saturday night, man? How you feeling? Not much. Just been watching college football day, watch Alabama kind of fucking throw a wrench into everything. So now that committee is really praying to God that Florida State loses. So, I mean, it's been it's been a good day. I got out back for dinner, which was actually kind of good. So I didn't mind that. Nice. Nice.
00:02:02
Speaker
Yeah, man, we're just here ready to talk some, uh, some low owned plays, some leverage plays, and, and we'll go from there. Yeah, man. Uh, I mean, the good thing about, you know, you eating out for dinner, you know, I ate out for dinner myself tonight, went to a fat heads. Uh, that was a good meal and, uh, we're going to make it all back tomorrow and then some, it doesn't matter. You know what I'm saying? It's all coming back tomorrow. So I
DFS Strategies: Dodging the Chalk
00:02:28
Speaker
think,
00:02:28
Speaker
I got I got a good feeling about tomorrow chill and normally that's a scary thing. But I got a good feeling that someone here in the deli or this myself or yourself or Baker. I think I think we got the listeners, viewers, one of you. Yes, one of you.
00:02:43
Speaker
has a bink tomorrow. So let's get the deli to the top of the charts tomorrow, shall we? Hell yeah. As we go, as you know, position by position, we break down our favorite plays of each position. And of course, on Saturday night, we try to kind of get some lower own plays, try to leverage the field, get off the chalk a little bit. A good play is a good play. Don't get it twisted.
00:03:07
Speaker
But there are some a lot I would say a lot more more this week than I've seen on other weeks. A lot of very low owned high upside plays on the slate. So I'm ready to I'm ready to get into it. So let's start at the quarterback position.
Quarterback Pricing on FanDuel vs DraftKings
00:03:24
Speaker
Obviously, as we discussed on and I might show I might have to lean on you to for DraftKings ownership when it comes to quarterback only because on fan dual.
00:03:36
Speaker
You don't have to dumpster dive. So the higher priced quarterbacks on FanDuel are normally generally played more often than they are on DraftKings because DraftKings normally puts out prices that may be prohibitive to your lineups. Yes, I understand we have the Zach Moss chalk and you know, it allows you to play not whatever you want, but gives you the the path to play, you know, guys like C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, the guys at the top of your
00:04:04
Speaker
pricing scale, but on FanDuel, it doesn't matter too much, you know, like there's, there's not too much of a difference between a guy like Jalen Hurts at 9,000 all the way to, you know, Joe Flacco at 6
Quarterback Picks: Hurts, Flacco, and More
00:04:16
Speaker
,000. Like you don't find those plays on FanDuel, whereas the pricing scale is a lot different from what is Joe Flacco this week, like 4,500 or something like that? Yeah, I don't even know. I think you're
00:04:29
Speaker
46. No 46. So I mean, you go up to jail and hurts, you know, it's a $5,000 difference. I mean, like, you know, or roughly. So I mean, it's a lot different. So ownership may be skewed one site to the next. I know primarily your DraftKings listeners. So we'll kind of lean into you for that. But on FanDuel, at least, I'm not seeing anybody jump off.
00:04:54
Speaker
the page as opposed to ownership. I think it's relatively flat. And I'll go over some of the chalkier plays. Just tell me if I'm wrong. CJ Stroud to a tongue of Iloa. Sam Howl to a lesser extent. Jalen Hurts, of course. Brock Purdy. And you're going to have to help me a little bit, Joe, if you don't mind. If you don't mind. All right. Where is this Russell Wilson shit coming from?
00:05:20
Speaker
I think it's coming from the fact that Houston is really good at, Houston is really good at stopping the run. Are they? Because Gervatay Williams is chalky too. So where is this coming from? I mean, truth be told, this is not a good week for quarterbacks.
00:05:41
Speaker
This slate as a whole, it's a very ugly week for quarterback. You think so? You think so? Because I mean, we have.
Is Russell Wilson a DFS Viable Pick?
00:05:48
Speaker
I mean, like, I know it's under my lower against the commanders. Yeah, but he's coming in at little ownership. That's, I mean, on DraftKings, I think it's because it's expensive to stack him with. I guess, but I mean, he's unequivocally probably the best quarterback play on the slate.
00:06:11
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it's either him or Purdie, but like Purdie is coming in with that way higher ownership because he's cheaper, a lot cheaper, at least on Draftkings. Yeah, yeah. I mean, they're they're relatively close on Fandula. Like Brock Purdie is 7800 and then to a ton of my low is 8400. So I mean, you look at a $600 difference, but I think what it is is like Houston kind of finds themselves in these shootouts a lot more often than not. They're kind of like
00:06:39
Speaker
how the Chargers were last year, or maybe even the Vikings to a point last year where like every game's a shootout. It's 2020. It's 2030. You know, is this the same team we're talking about that put up 10 points against the Panthers? All right. I'm just curious. I mean, am I the same guy? I mean, this Broncos team is
00:07:03
Speaker
ugly. I mean, like they put the whooping on the Browns last week because they were down there. So they're what third string quarterback again, right? And they didn't even look good doing it. So it was just like, I, but like Russell Wilson had like in terms of like a football game, he had a good game fantasy. It was awful. But in the, like in real football, it was fine. Yeah. Real football. But guess what? We play fantasy football. So I think it's in his, his wide receivers are cheap.
00:07:35
Speaker
Okay. I, I, again, I, that's just, I think that's just what people want to do. I mean, is this one of the situations where we flip the cards and he's like 2% like, it certainly could be. I think this may be like an industry steam because like, I don't understand the logic behind playing Russell Wilson. I mean, on the road, I get it. You know what I'm saying? Houston is a nice environment to play in, but at the same time, like.
00:07:59
Speaker
The dude throws to like 50 different people. Like we saw Adam Chapman get in the box last week. He rushed for a touchdown. Again, he's almost, I don't want to say unstackable because Courtland Sutton continues to get in the box. But like, what is the upside? Like, are you going to get 300 yards at Russell Wilson? No. Are you going to get three touchdowns at Russell Wilson? Yes. But who are they going to go to?
00:08:19
Speaker
three different people. So it's just like, he's almost impossible to stack. So it's like, I can see if he was like one to 2% own, but like we're talking like a chalky ish Russell Wilson. Yeah. And I can literally just play two a ton of my low and just pay the price.
00:08:33
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, on draft kings right now, he's the second chalkiest quarterback quarterback per what I'm seeing here on the website I use. And then on Fandule, he is kind of tied for fourth with Tua. That's crazy. But on draft kings. Yeah, I mean, on draft kings, he's coming in at 12 percent.
00:08:59
Speaker
Well, you know what that means, chill. Ain't no fucking way. Why ain't no way? No, I'm not. I'm not playing. No, no, that's probably the easiest quarterback fade of all time.
Kenny Pickett's Potential Against Arizona
00:09:11
Speaker
If he beats me for three hundred and four, then so be it. But for some reason, well, I don't see it happening. I mean, on DraftKings, at least I would just pay the extra four hundred dollars because I don't get three hundred and three out of Brock Purdy. Yeah.
00:09:26
Speaker
And we already saw a block party take down a Millie maker, but as naked. So, I mean, if you want to stack them great, if you don't, that's great too. His price opens up. If Philadelphia has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Absolutely. So, I mean, yes, I would rather play Brock pretty and a kid harp on what I harped on Wednesday. I'd rather play Kenny Pickett. He's at home against Arizona. Arizona.
00:09:56
Speaker
I mean, these dudes made Tommy DeVito look good. So they made Matt Stafford look relevant. He tossed four of them things last week. So why don't I just play Kenny Pickett instead? Yeah, Kenny Pickett at home, too. Yeah, his options are cheap. It's the same logic we're talking about when it comes to Russell Wilson. But then Kenny Pickett is going to be less owned.
00:10:22
Speaker
and it's the acting options are the exact, almost the exact
Running Backs: Low-Owned Gems
00:10:24
Speaker
same price. You can put Pickens and Deontay in there with Kenny Pickett for like 16, seven human to live on DraftKings. It's cheap. It's really cheap. I don't hate the, I don't hate the Kenny Pickett play at all, especially on DraftKings. I mean, I'll take a look over here at Fandal in a second, but I don't understand why Tua is at this ownership. It seems kind of low to me.
00:10:52
Speaker
I mean, it's the nut matchup, bro. It's the commies. And this is a team that's going to get multiple possessions because again, Washington ain't running the ball.
00:11:03
Speaker
Right. And I made a mistake earlier. It was Washington that made Tommy DeVito look real good. So come on now. But again, I don't understand why Tua's ownership is this low. Again, to me, this slate is pretty straightforward. I think you're going to actually have a really good opportunity of seeing a lot of duped lineups tomorrow. I think that's going to be a thing.
00:11:26
Speaker
in cash. Yeah. But it really depends on the size of the tournament. I think in, I think it's small field tournaments. I think you're going to see lineups only be different by like a guy or a defense or something. Like to me, like this slate, you're like most of the people it's going to start with Tyreek. It's going to start with Zach Moss and we'll get into some of these other plays later. But like, you know, I could totally see the slate kind of a lot of people being the same now.
00:11:56
Speaker
With that being said, if nobody's playing Tua, I'm playing Tua. You should probably do that. You're giving me to a time of Wailoa without the Washington has no pass rush. Like Tua at home is really similar to another quarterback that I like that nobody's playing. Well, two is on the road, but still. Oh, two is on the road. My bad. So this guy is on the road as well, but he's in a dome. Jared Goff.
00:12:29
Speaker
Like I want it. I want it to lean into some Jared golf this week. Like, listen, if I want to pull the trigger chill, I want to pull the trigger. So in Detroit, if we think Detroit is this really good team, if we think like their ceiling is NFC championship game, what do good teams do when they get punched in the mouth? Cause they got embarrassed on Thanksgiving. They come back and they slaughter the next fucking team they play.
00:12:55
Speaker
I mean, and like in the Saints defense to me is a little bit overrated because they have played the South. Correct. This is true. And again, you're getting Jared Goff. He's in a dome. He's on the road. So that's fine. He has the perfect conditions in which he needs. Like one of my lineups will have a Jared Goff stack in it. And honestly, like it's an easy step. It's a really easy run back if I want to run back a Saint.
00:13:26
Speaker
So again, it's a stack that ain't nobody using. You could still get to where you need to get to. I kind of like golf this week. If I'm going dumpster diving this week, if I'm going past golf, it's probably just Gardner Mentshu at that point. So for me, it's probably Gardner Mentshu, especially if I want to make the ballsy move of not playing Zach Moss.
00:13:56
Speaker
But see, that's the cool thing about Garden of Intu and A or two pass catchers is that you can lead into that Zach Moss chalk, but you have the bailout, the pivot, the leverage to say, I can play the passing game along with the chalk. I like Josh Downs this week, but we'll get into the receivers here in a little bit. You know, he's got his easy stacking partners. Pity City was like ringing up targets all last week. Like, yes, I love the Garden of Intu play. And I like them with Zach Moss.
00:14:25
Speaker
So I think you can definitely play with Zach Moss. I mean, I guess we can we can address Joe Flacco. I don't personally think if you want to play Joe Flacco to jam in whatever you want to jam in. I personally would it, but I guess I could see it. Absolutely not.
00:14:51
Speaker
Um, absolutely not. Joe Flacco was in the same seat that we were two weeks ago in a chair at home in front of a computer. And he's not about to go into LA and think he's going to be a relevant quarterback again. I mean, the dude sucked last year.
00:15:06
Speaker
So it's like, he beat the Browns last year. That was like his good game. That was it. I just can't pull that trigger. I get the price and everything, but we make this argument for these bad quarterbacks. And it's like, we try to convince ourselves when we could literally just look at what makes sense.
00:15:29
Speaker
Toa makes sense, Sam Howell makes sense because he's going to keep throwing. Garden Menchu makes sense because of the chalk that is Zack Moss. Kenny Pickett makes sense because the Cardinals are ass. I mean, but I can't convince, if I have to convince myself to do something, I'm probably not doing it.
00:15:50
Speaker
And truthfully, if I was gonna go, I think this is really gross, but I think if I was really gonna go dumpster diving, I'd probably take a shot on Bryce Young again. He's ass. Bryce Young sucks, dude. Dude, he's so bad. I'll give him this. With that being said, I do like me some Adam Thielen, because his price is back down to reasonable, but we'll get there when we get there. Oh, yeah. We're headed there. We're headed there.
00:16:18
Speaker
But again, to me, this is a no-nonsense slate. My lineups start with Tua, period. OK. I know I just tried to make a point about not trying to convince yourselves. But if you want to, if you were, some of the people that do listen do play 150, OK? That's right. Some of them ask a multi-answer. Yep. So I want to give one sprinkle play. And we kind of mentioned it off air, because you were going to have to play them tomorrow if I wasn't so generous. But Bailey Zappi.
00:16:49
Speaker
The Chargers defense is so bad. I mean, bad, bad. There's more easily exploitable spots. Like I said, the commander's on the slate. The Eagles secondary's on the slate. I get that. But this Chargers team is so trash. And the Mario Douglas is out.
00:17:11
Speaker
Right. So I mean, you want to talk about a cheap, cheap stack. You want to convince me to jam in Flacco. Oh, hell no. I'd rather take the Bailey zappy route against the chargers and then go from there. You get this stack of what Juju at that point or Devontae Parker. Yeah. You want to play Tyreke and CMC and whoever go ahead. Go ahead. Bailey's happy. I'll open that for you.
00:17:40
Speaker
I'm just saying, large field. Okay. This is not for small field. That is a large field play. I mean, he just bring, he just bringing back your Bailey's happy stack with Keenan Allen at that point. I don't know how healthy he is. I I've heard that a lot of people seem to believe that Eckler's ankle issue is still a thing.
00:18:03
Speaker
I mean, like the charges are so banged up. I mean, like I'm not saying that Kenan Allen's not going to get 15 targets tomorrow. That's probably going to happen. Right. Point comma. I don't even think I would run back a charger. I would just take the cheap stack and then load up everywhere else. Like I think I think DFS is changing to the point where I don't think the run back is absolutely necessary. I think you do it if it makes sense. I mean, you've heard it. The Sims don't like run backs.
00:18:33
Speaker
I mean, like I said, we can do the run back if it makes sense. Like we don't want to force the run back. Like let's say you're running a Miami stack. I get it. You can use Dotson or Curtis Samuel or score McCorn to a lesser extent. But we've seen Sam how literally spread it out everywhere. We saw Brian Robinson get over 100 yards receiving one game. So if you feel that there's not an outlier that there's not a breakout candidate in a run back, screw it. Play someone else.
00:18:58
Speaker
at a similar price point if that's gonna be your decision point. So, that's just me. Like I said, if I'm playing Patriots, I'm not running it back with a charger. If I'm playing, well, I guess if I'm playing Browns, I would definitely run it back with Rams if you wanna do the Joe Flacco thing, but, because there's a certain Ram that we're gonna talk about that should be more owned than he is. So, but, you know, we're about to get there. We're about to get there. Any other quarterbacks before we head over to RB?
00:19:26
Speaker
No, like I said, for me, it kind of starts with Tua. I do like me some Joe Flacco. I'm not Joe Flacco. Jared Goff. And then after that, I don't mind Munchu. And you may have convinced me to maybe throw Zappy in there. Dude, the charge is steak, man. You're an afternoon only guy. Correct. I'm just saying.
00:19:55
Speaker
Well, that's a one o'clock game, isn't it? Yeah, New England's at home. It's one o'clock. Yeah. Yeah, I can be saying. Sprinkle it in, bro. Sprinkle it in.
00:20:06
Speaker
Running backs, like we said, pretty straightforward, but this is the position where I feel we can definitely differentiate, okay? So let's go over the shock real quick.
Wide Receiver Strategies: Ownership vs Leverage
00:20:18
Speaker
Obviously, Zach Moss, we don't need to talk about him at nausea many longer. I think the decision point between Tyreek Hill and CMC is gonna sway that ownership one way or another. I think that some teams, some players will try to jam them both in, which is fine. That means they're automatically playing down at a quarterback, for sure.
00:20:34
Speaker
So that means CMC lineups probably won't have Tuatunga Vailoa in with Tyreek Hill. So that's probably why you're seeing some of the depressed ownership on a guy like Tuatunga Vailoa. But there's other ways to go about it. Rachard White in a nut matchup against Carolina, chalky play. Gervonta Williams still don't understand that one, but he's coming in chalky-ish. And then Jalen Warren from Arizona.
00:20:57
Speaker
Same deal, uh, terrible, terrible defense. We saw both running backs for the Rams get there last week. So there's no reason in this spot that unless it all comes through the air, which I'm hoping, but if it doesn't come off through the air, then we can see a scenario where both.
00:21:12
Speaker
Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris kind of get there. Obviously, one has to come from outside the 20. Najee Harris is their clear goal line back. So, you know, kind of play that how it will, even though Najee Harris is coming in at significantly less ownership than Jaylen Warren, probably because he's more expensive, but I can definitely see that. Other than that, I mean, but like I said, there's definitely some places we can go. Chill, I kind of start with you. Is there anywhere outside of Le Chalk that you want to go?
00:21:43
Speaker
Yeah, I mean outside the chalk I'll let you hit on one. I think it's kind of obvious but Again, I mentioned Alliance. I kind of like Gibbs I mean, I think if you want to go Gibbs or if you want to go David Montgomery I think that's fine. Like again, Detroit is still a really good offense you know Gibbs gets a lot of you know, obviously the receiving work and
00:22:08
Speaker
It is split between him and David Montgomery, but like we know that Detroit wants to run the ball the whole time Again, this this Saints defense is it's a it's a little bit overrated because they do play to South Those are two quarterbacks that I kind of do like this week You know taking a look here You know you mentioned Najee I think Najee's ownership is coming in a lot lower than what I think it should be and
00:22:39
Speaker
And I get why people want to play Jalen Warren, but just going into this matchup, I mean, Arizona is so bad. So again, I don't think it really matters which one you do want to play here. I probably play the less owned of the two, which, you know, as of now is kind of looking like Najee. And then I think one running back, that might be a little kind of tough here to kind of, you know, you know, Derek Henry.
00:23:07
Speaker
I can't do our King. I just can't. That dude looks so dusty last week. It is the Ember. I mean, I get it. And that's probably the majority of his ownership is where it's coming from. Oh, we know what time it is, boys. It's the Ember. Gotta load up some Derek. My dude looks slow. He didn't look explosive. And this is not the best matchup in the world. So, I mean, I get the logic. There's another Titan I'd rather play.
00:23:35
Speaker
But we'll get there here in a second, but, um, I just can't do, I just can't do Derek Henry this week, man. I just can't do it. And then I think, I mean, like I'll mention them, but like brother Raheem is coming in at no ownership. I mean, that's, that's one of the three that we need to point out here. So the dolphins have the highest implied team total on the slate.
00:24:00
Speaker
And no one wants to play the backfield. No one wants to play a chain off the injury. I get it. Your butt hurt from two weeks ago when he came back and played one play and left. I understand that. Your butt hurt. Ununderstandable. But how many slates went healthy? Has he broken? The man, both the running backs. You don't want to play the guy that's leading the league in rushing touchdowns? Is that a joke? I would say Rahim has, what, 15 touchdowns?
00:24:27
Speaker
some nutty like that. He's he's damn league in front of CMC but it's like y'all don't want to play him. I get it. He's on the road. I don't care. It's the commies and he's direct. I mean the direct leverage off of Tyree Hill. So, if you have a non Tyree Hill lineup, you probably better find room for brother Raheem or Devon Hn.
00:24:49
Speaker
Like it just makes no sense to run without a dolphin tomorrow. I get it. Everyone wants to jam entire kill to a lesser extent. Jalen waddle. I get that. But we're talking damn near zero ownership on the league leader and touchdowns. And one of the most explosive running backs that we've seen in a very long time. Y'all ain't gonna play divine a chain or brother of him tomorrow. Y'all must have lost your damn minds.
00:25:12
Speaker
That's that's crazy. That's crazy to me. That's crazy. It's crazy to me as well. The highest scoring offense on the damn slate and y'all don't want to play the league leader in touchdowns. Okay. I'm playing them and I'm a print. I'm not saying Tyree kill has to have a bad game. So, let's flashback to several weeks ago when brother Raheem was the
00:25:38
Speaker
What you needed to do was play brother Raheem and Tyreek Hill. I think we could be facing another scenario where if Tyreek Hill goes off, which obviously he's capable of doing, there's no player on the ceiling that has a higher upside than Tyreek Hill tomorrow. But I think you just tag along, brother Raheem, or you tag along a divine A chain, maybe leave out to a tongue of vylo in those stacks or play all three of them and hope they drop 35 to 40 points.
00:26:08
Speaker
and take all that. Again, you're leveraging the ownership of Tyreek Hill, and it's right with a player that wears the same jersey, just a different number and last name on the back. So load up some Devon H.A. and load up some Brother Raheem. And from my standpoint, he already broke the slate last week. But y'all see that big red one in Cleveland and y'all like, oh, I'm not playing Kyron Williams. Oh, no, I can't play, but you serious?
00:26:38
Speaker
You serious? No one else touches the ball. The only reason why Royce the five nine got got toked last week was a the Cardinals suck and be it was my up duty. They're already beating that ass. So he's their goal line back. You can tell you already know he gets receptions out of the backfield and how efficient is this Browns offense going to be behind Joe Flacco. I don't think they're ever gonna be on the field chill. So you can just tag in at home favorite gets all the goal line work and y'all wanna play him.
00:27:11
Speaker
I'm mad. I'm mad. What is the field thinking, man? What is the field thinking? You got to sprinkle in some of these plays. I get the Zach Moss thing. I get the Richard White thing. I get most of the plays with the exception of Javante Williams, but I would rather play Najee Harris over Javante Williams. I would rather play Devon A. Chain over Javante Williams. There's a lot of people that I would rather play these set of guys over.
00:27:37
Speaker
In my personal opinion, of course. I don't know if you're leaning towards that way, but you got to sprinkle some of these guys in, right? I mean, look at the upside that we could be missing, right? Well, I'm not playing Jomate Williams. That's for sure. I mean, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I'm talking about Kyren. I'm talking about A.J. and I'm talking about most three. Yeah. A yes to all three. Excellent. Excellent. And signs of life last week. One more I mentioned. Bijon? Question mark.
00:28:07
Speaker
Dude, I don't want to talk about it. You don't want to talk about Bijai? I've been hurt so much by that man. I understand how much he's hurt you. That game, like... Okay, so you can make the same argument for Bryce Hall at that?
00:28:26
Speaker
for Breece Hall at that point. Breece Hall's hurt though. He's got this, I think it's a knee injury. They were talking about how he's like 75% or something like that. I mean, he's got a PPR floor because Lord knows Tim Boyle was dumping it off to that dude like 17 times last game. So maybe he's got that going for him. Maybe draft Kings play at that point. Yeah. Oh, he damn sure in a fan to a plate. Crazy. Uh-uh.
00:28:48
Speaker
You know, you're crazy. Oh, you're crazy. I mean, but the thing is, like, Breece Hall is getting ownership. I get it. He's 6700. He's on Fandule. He's at a good price. But at the same time, like, I get it. Jalen Warren is kind of chalky or or in that same range as Breece Hall, but he's $200 cheaper. I'd rather just play Jalen Warren if I want to save the if I want to save the salary.
00:29:16
Speaker
There's just other guys I'd rather just pay. And I mean, what about, what about Devin Singletary against Denver? The fact that Denver is ass. I get it. But like, wasn't it kind of back to like 50 50 with him and Pierce? I don't know the splits from last week. I can't say. I don't want to say that with conviction. I don't want to either, but there was enough that like Pierce got enough to make me nervous about it.
00:29:48
Speaker
That's fair. I'm just saying the matchup is there. No, it would not surprise me if Devin Singletary went for like 75 in a touchdown tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me at all. Um, so I will, I will point this out that, uh, that the, the lions, uh, do have the biggest mismatch lineup this week in terms of offensive line versus defensive line. Uh, it's number two against 30, um, and Cameron Jordan's in danger of missing this game.
00:30:18
Speaker
So you're saying you can fire any Lions running back in BI? I think if you want to play either one, I think you're fine. If you want to convince me to play Montgomery, go for it. You want to play Gibbs, go for it. You want to play them both? Only scenario I played two running backs from the same team tomorrow will be 100% Pittsburgh.
00:30:46
Speaker
I play Warren and, and Najee, you could play, uh, you could play, uh, you can play the Pittsburgh backfield or the Miami backfield. Now that is a large field, big brain play. Just be like, you know what? Forget Tyree Hill. He doesn't exist. Everything's coming from the backfield. Play both of them. Yep.
00:31:12
Speaker
And you're playing, you'll play both of them at sub 10%. 10 10 combined. Nobody playing these dudes. It makes no sense to me. None whatsoever. Agreed. Uh, we ready to slide over to wide receiver. Yeah, we can slide on in. Well, obviously, you know, the chalk, of course, Tyree kill. We completely get it. Totally understand.
00:31:38
Speaker
I see AJ Brown getting a lot of ownership in this spot. And then you got your normal suspects, you know, the Texans guys, I think they know a brown is questionable right now. And obviously Bobby trees is dust and Dalton Schultz have been ruled out. So that kind of narrows the target tree for them. But again, Denver secondary is pretty raw.
00:32:03
Speaker
pretty damn good. Yeah, I was gonna say in terms of AJ Brown's ownership, I'm not really seeing it here on Fandool, on DraftKings. Okay, so yeah, it's probably just the Fandool thing because, you know, salary is a little looser, you can probably afford to fit both Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown. So, okay, sight difference.
00:32:23
Speaker
a little more AJ Brown over on FanDuel, less on DK, because again, price prohibitive, because again, you want to see guys like CMC or line up, you definitely want to see Tyreek. So it's like, I get why a guy like AJ Brown would be kind of down, but all right, that's fair. But on FanDuel, he's still coming in there. He's still in there. Yeah. Um, you know, taking a look at wide receivers, like you said, um, there's some, there's some weird wide receiver shot.
00:32:52
Speaker
There's some chalk I like, I like downs. And why is Elijah Moore coming in with all that steam? What the fuck are we, oh my God. I have Elijah Moore on DraftKings at 16, I owe this round up to 17%. Bruh. How, what's his price? DraftKings, he's 3,500. No. Tonight.
00:33:22
Speaker
How much, how much is Greg Dorch? I would just play Juju. I think Juju is cheaper. I'd rather just play Dorch. No Michael Wilson, Hollywood Brown questionable. They're probably going to be playing from behind that entire game. Juju is 32. Let's look at Dorch. Dorch likes to hit people with the too small down by 30. I mean, come on. Dorch is actually more expensive at 37. I'll find the $200. Right.
00:33:49
Speaker
Uh, no, I'm taking a look at it. I'm taking a look at a wide receiver. Um, you know, kind of looking at some of these guys that, you know, I mentioned them before, um, Adam Thielen, uh, his price is kind of back down to where I think we're comfortable at paying it. Um, you know, I think a lot of what's happened, um, you know, for what I've been reading is like the defensive schemes that he's been going up against really don't favor him. Um, you know, we do have Tampa Bay here. Tampa Bay is really weak against the past.
00:34:19
Speaker
Um, again, Bryce Young, uh, you know, we get it. He's not very good at football right now, but I mean, Adam Thielen is the best option that they kind of have left. Um, you know, there's a coach getting fired narrative. Um, you know, so I got in here, uh, you know, I do like, I do like, uh, you know, Adam Thielen. Um, man, I do, I don't believe this for one second. I feel like this is going to be a lot higher.
00:34:48
Speaker
Are you buying, what do you have for Devonta Smith's ownership? On FanDuel, I haven't met 8%. On DraftKings, I haven't met six, and I don't buy either one. I think that shit's going to be higher when the cards flip.
00:35:04
Speaker
him and Brandon, I hook, I think is going to be like, Oh, these are sub 10, seven, whatever percent plays. And then they're going to turn out to be like 30. Right? Cause like the Vonta Smith screams what Gabe Davis was last week.
00:35:21
Speaker
Right, right. Why are we playing Steph Diggs? Would we just do the cheaper version and probably get the same upside? Right. I don't buy that ownership for one damn second. Let me flip over here to
00:35:41
Speaker
Let me go ahead and flip that real quick to draft Kings. And I'll tell you what four for four has him at just for context. Same thing, 8% him and Ayuk same. But like you said, I 100% agree with you. I think Ayuk and Devonta Smith, even though that's probably my favorite mini of the day. But comma, again, we might flip the cards and see them like at 20 to 25%.
00:36:06
Speaker
Yeah. Um, and I'm not gonna lie. I'm just going to, so I didn't do a fat chick last week. I even texted the group. I didn't, I didn't have a fat chick of the week last week. So I'll do, I'll do two. One is okay. We're going to make up for one. We're going to make it up. We'll make up. We'll, we'll make up. I ain't a, I ain't no bitch. Um, so here we go. So this week we got, uh, we do have a former.
00:36:32
Speaker
We do have a former fat chick at the bar this week. When she was the fat chick, she didn't have her running mate. Her wing man wasn't with her. And this is the cheapest she's ever been. We ain't never seen her this cheap. Now, she might have a little bit of a nag and injury. And last week, her unpopular friend, who's still unpopular this week, got it done for her.
00:37:02
Speaker
So I think she's raring to go. I don't think she's going to be afraid of this defense. And we're going back to Cooper Cup. And then the other fat chick, she's consistent. She's good. She's not fat, but she's kind of thick.
00:37:29
Speaker
right? And, you know, she always gets there. And she always gets there no matter what. And, you know, she kind of got she kind of got embarrassed on the holiday, you know, her team kind of took the L, but she didn't have a bad game. Okay. You know, you know, she kind of got a little, she got a little
00:37:48
Speaker
little bit of Egyptian in her, you know, so, uh, you know, like, you know, she kind of like, if she likes to play Yu-Gi-Oh, her favorite card is, you know, is, uh, the winged dragon of Ra. It's on Ra. That would be her. That would be, uh, the Sun God's ace card.
00:38:09
Speaker
Yes, I do like both of my I do like both of these wide receivers this week. I mean, I've mentioned Joe Flacco and I kind of like the Detroit offense. You know, Jared Goff and so coming back this week, so I do like those and then I'll mention them. You were probably going to mention them, but. Yeah, let's just keep mentioning these low owned dolphins that nobody wants to play to what's going to have time.
00:38:38
Speaker
Jaylen Wattles is coming in at sub 10%. Guess what? That's going to be falling in the Devots of Smith, Brandon Ayuk category. You're going to flip that motherfucking card and it's going to be like, oh, well, if I just pivot off of, you know, Tiger kill. I think people are more inclined to play the other two than Wattles.
00:39:01
Speaker
I think people are just aren't inclined enough to play brother Raheem and Devon a chain tomorrow. They're not, they're not, they're not. That's the pivot. They're not. Listen, they're going to go, they're going to go Zach Moss CMC. They're going to go Zach Moss Tyreke and then kind of leave space for that.
00:39:19
Speaker
Nobody is playing Zach Moss, but Moss started HN tomorrow. Not a chance. Not a chance. And I mean, yeah, obviously Waddle will be less owned than Tyreek, of course, but I mean, yeah, I can get it. I mean, it provides you a little leverage, but I mean, on the opposite side of Zach Moss. I mean, why am I just not playing Nook? I love Nook this week.
00:39:41
Speaker
I figured you were going to hit on Nook. That's my favorite run back right there. I mean, if I'm going to, if I'm going to mini correlate with the Zach Moss chalk, I gotta, I gotta leverage myself somewhere and Nook is not getting enough ownership. Um, I mean, we've seen at least one explosion.
00:39:59
Speaker
explosion spot. But I mean, he's clearly defined himself as the number one there. We expect the game script for them to be trailing. So I mean, I can definitely see a path where Nook can get kind of loose on this secondary. And the last group of people I mentioned is the Steelers pass catchers. Arizona. That's it. Like I said, they're both cheap.
00:40:26
Speaker
They're both cheap, Pickens and Deontay. We would be singing a different song if they challenged Deontay Johnson's touchdown last week. It was a touchdown. I agree. But.
00:40:40
Speaker
Again, we'd be singing a different tune. Maybe, could he pick it up? It was his best game probably ever. And again, second week with his new offensive coordinator or set of offensive coordinators, I should say. And again, I can't say it enough, Arizona. So, and again, it provides leverage against the running game. Because if Jalen Warren's gonna be popular because he is,
00:41:06
Speaker
That just brings you away from that chalk, unless you want to have like a picket, Warren, Deontay Johnson, or pickings kind of line up, then kind of go from there. But yeah, man, these Steelers pass cashers should be probably more expensive than they are, not even more expensive, but more owned than they are right now. And I'm just, I'm not seeing the ownership come in where it should. So.
00:41:29
Speaker
And it was probably my favorite leverage plays on the slate. I feel like I'm missing like one more person that I'm definitely sprinkling in, but I think you harped on it anyway. So I think, I think we're good. I think, I think we're covered. Yeah. Um, if, if I had to pick a giant, uh, John Giants, a commander's wide receiver, I would probably just, I would take the shot on Johan Dotson. Yeah. That's another leverage point. Cause everybody wants to play Curtis Samuel. And I completely understand that, but.
00:41:57
Speaker
It's going to be either Logan Thomas or Datsun in my runbacks. Yeah. I mean, like I could, I could see a realm where I, I'm not going to play Curtis Samuel. Um, but so for me, it's probably Datsun Maclaurin Thomas. I mean, we've seen, we've seen Datsun have a blow up game. We've also seen him have zero. Yep. Been there. He's the commander's Gabe Davis. I've been on both sides of that.
00:42:26
Speaker
Yep, all he is is Kami Gabe Davis. So, I mean, we all played Gabe Davis last week. Might as well play the Commander's version in Johan Dachshund this week, so. We get to go to Titan? I think so. Sam LaPorta. Yes. That's it, that's the take. Sam LaPorta. Sam LaPorta. Sam LaPorta.
Tight End Picks: LaPorta vs Hill
00:42:49
Speaker
I mean, he's more expensive on Fandool, but like, for $5,600 on DraftKings,
00:42:55
Speaker
You could do worse. I mean, that's 700 more than, you know, Trey McBride, who's going to get played. Obviously. I just think there's more. The ownership from the higher guys is being pushed down because there's so many lower price guys that people want to play. Like, so, Hey, I might go ahead on, on draft games, you playing Brevin Jordan at 20, no,
00:43:23
Speaker
So if you play, if you play Jordan Moss, Kenny Pickett in a pass catcher, maybe I'll put Bailey Zappi in that lineup. That's it. That's a Tyreek Hill, CMC, Brad and I Oak, like all of them, all of them are coming, all of them. Yeah, I just, again, because I'm kind of going here, I'm like, why is Reverend Jordan with all this ownership? Oh, he's the doctor's out.
00:43:51
Speaker
Yeah, and then on FanDuel, he's actually below the min price of a tight end. So I think it's $4,300. Oh, well, I guess he's below the min. I guess on FanDuel, I'll know where I'll be. I mean, if we want to get different, we'll go to the brand, but I know where I'll be.
00:44:11
Speaker
I mean, I want to play taste and Hill tomorrow. Like don't get it twisted. I want to play taste and Hill fan dual 6,500. I'd rather pay the 500 extra to get to Sam LaPorta. When on draft Kings, you can always load up tasting Hill because he's always having like these outlier games every now and then.
00:44:28
Speaker
He can mess around and mess up everybody's ownership on the chalk of Juwan Johnson and guys like that, like, you know, A.T. Perry. Like, I would feel I feel better playing them if I will love it was out. Listen, man, they you saw how awful they were in the red zone last week. They were bad. You think they're not going to find more touches for Taysom Hill, who literally bleeds red zone.
00:44:55
Speaker
You're not wrong. Like Derek Carr should be out of the game if they get in the 20s. I agree. But I mean, it could be one of those outlier games. Like I said, on DraftKings, I want to play Taysom Hill on FanDuel. Obviously, it's a little too pricey. I can't. I want to, but I can't.
00:45:18
Speaker
I mean, he's projecting pretty well. So I don't even know how you project Jason Hill because his projections every week should be question mark, question mark. Right. Ask him questions mark, Russia's question mark, reception's question mark. So he should literally be a secret character. He should be a boss character. I think I agree. He should be Smoke from Mortal Kombat 1. Or was it Reptile? Was Reptile a secret character or Smoke? Yes, it was Reptile.
00:45:49
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Tastes him. It was a moral combat too. Maybe it was smoke or noob sabot. Noob sabot. Yeah. It was smoke. And then he got converted to noob sabot. Yeah. And like I said, he's just nothing but question marks. So that's why I want to play him. That's what makes him such a great tournament play. I agree.
00:46:10
Speaker
But I mean, as far as other tight ends, like I don't see any low ownership plays. I think like Dale mentioned Kate Otten the other week against Carolina. I mean, Carolina does suck. Yeah, but they're secondaries. They're only good. Only saving grace. It's an ending. I think J.C. Horn is back to. Mm hmm. So like. It's going to be interesting. I just rush, rush, rush, rush on white.
00:46:38
Speaker
20% owned Brevin Jordan. Kiss my ass. I'm not doing that. I. Yeah, I mean, 100 or not. I know. I mean, honestly, instead of playing Brevin Jordan, I'd rather play Hunter Henry at 600 more dollars. It's only because you're being convinced to play Bailey Zappy this week, sir. I'm just only convinced that Hunter Henry can catch two touchdowns for 10 yards against the Chargers.
00:47:10
Speaker
Excellent point. Excellent point. I mean, yeah, let's, I mean, we can keep it short and sweet. I mean, if you want to play all the way up, will George Kittle come in in the ownership projection that you like? I could, I could, I don't mind Kittle. I think I, I think I like Kittle in this game, but I think I'd rather, I'd rather go La Porta.
00:47:38
Speaker
I think the port has got a nut matchup this week. Honestly, I really do. I think I want to find some room for some golf stacks. I'd rather go La Porta. See, this is why this is why we talk on Saturday night. I didn't have golf on the brain. Now. Now I see a low on La Porta. I see, I see the God of the sun and a no own Jared golf against the saints. I mean, again, it's not going to look like the best matchup.
00:48:07
Speaker
But again, I think the Saints defense is overrated. I really do. And I think if you want to go golf with two pass catchers, you're fine. You want to go golf the running back and Laporta or the Sun God, I think you're fine. Who the Saints lose to last week, Joe? The Redler. So.
00:48:33
Speaker
If Atlanta can hang over 20 points on, uh, the saints, if Bijon can get wet on the saints is Jameer Gibbs, not the same guy. That's kind of what I was thinking. And plus they're coming off of the long buy and getting embarrassed on national television. Dan Campbell's going to have those boys raring to go. I agree. I agree. 100% agree.
00:48:59
Speaker
Let's talk defense.
Defense Picks: Rams and Falcons
00:49:00
Speaker
So a tale of two sites obviously I don't want to say miss pricing but different pricing on Fandos compared to DraftKings because on Fandu I locked in the Rams. I'm not playing anybody but the Rams You know why I can get away with playing the chalk defense because I'm playing Kyron Williams at 2% because I'm playing Raheem Mostart at 1% because I'm playing divine a chain at 1% and
00:49:27
Speaker
because I'm playing guys like that. I'm playing Steelers pass catchers at sub 10%. That's why it afford to play the Rams defense at like 30 and not care. That's totally fair. Um, take it anywhere you want.
00:49:46
Speaker
I don't have a contrarian play today. I'm playing the Rams against Joe Flacco. And on draft Kings, you're playing the Falcons against Tim Boyle. That's what you're doing. I mean, I still like the Rams on draft Kings. Um, and then like, again, I'll mention it one more time, man. This dolphins defense is coming in with no ownership, but they so pricey though.
00:50:12
Speaker
Yeah, but he's gonna throw for over 40 times. I mean, Sam house gonna get his 300 yards. And he's gonna get sacked. Yeah, he might get sacked about 17 times. But you know, you don't get his 300 yards. Yeah, I mean, like, in terms of no ownership, dolphins, and Rams on DK, let me stress DK. Yes.
00:50:36
Speaker
Again, if you wanna play, to me, if you wanna play, if you don't wanna play the chunky defense in the Atlanta Jets game, just play the Jets defense. Yeah, absolutely. And then, I mean, like you said, honestly, I have no take. I'm fan-dual, I'm playing the Rams defense. I don't even think it's negotiable at this point. The only way I will not play the Rams defense is if I have to late swap off them, because my one o'clock's did poorly.
00:51:07
Speaker
Are you going to lay top to the other? Are you going to lay top to the other chalk defense? That is a Carolina Panthers, apparently, on Fandool. Ouch. Because Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, you got to go up $1,100.
00:51:23
Speaker
Yeah, that means that, well, I don't wanna take out Kyron. I mean, I'll make that decision later, but at the same time, like I said, that's the only way I would see myself getting off of the Rams defense is if I have to late swap off him. I mean, I can find the 300 to get to like, oh gosh, Cleveland's kind of expensive too. 4100, I can find 4100 bucks. Yeah, I mean, I think on DK there,
00:51:52
Speaker
on DK, they're only 3k the Browns. Yeah. 31. I mean, the Eagles are only a hundred dollars more too. So I'm fan dual. So I mean, okay. Now what's the player against the 49ers, but still, I mean, it's not, it's not the, it's not great, but like I said, nobody's going to hold it. Yeah. I mentioned it on Wednesday too. Why don't we just play the 49ers defense because you know, they're good.
00:52:16
Speaker
I mean, they are favorites on the road against statistically record wise, the best team in NFC. Yeah, dude. I, what, that is the most mind boggling stat I've ever seen. It is a weird line, but guess what? It hasn't moved at least to my knowledge. I don't think it's moved. So even the markets are like, yeah, San Francisco's better. Again, when you got the, when you got the full cast of Avengers with you,
00:52:46
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, again, you want to talk about an agenda. You think the Lions have an agenda from getting beat down last week. We're talking about a year old agenda from the NFC Championship game that the 49ers are holding. 100%. So you want to talk about agendas. Just like I said, just play the 49ers because you know they're good. I agree with you here, sir. I mean, if you don't want to play the Rams or the Falcons.
00:53:14
Speaker
Or again, the Jets because they're going against the Riddler. So. The fucking Riddler. I was bought a Riddler costume from Batman. I was bought one this year. I was so close. Just that close and that close. Yeah, I was going to I was going to dress up for the kids, you know, on the street, but I didn't. That's fair. That's fair. I like the logic. Well,
00:53:40
Speaker
I said it's gonna be it pretty much for the contrarian show, the final look. Again, these are the plays that we're playing. We're not suggesting them. We're playing them with our own American dollars, okay? So don't think that we're just throwing out names to throw out names. No, no, no. They're going in our lineups tomorrow, and we will ride or die with said plays that we mentioned on this show. So again, like, subscribe,
00:54:09
Speaker
and make sure that you I mean if you're on YouTube might as well ring that notification bell so you know every time that we upload a new video here on the DFS deli and of course as always before we go chill I need a bowl take for
00:54:25
Speaker
Sunday. Has your mind changed since Saturday or since Wednesday on this fine Saturday night? Where are we going bold this Sunday? My bold take on Wednesday was tiring kill, but I'm just gonna lean more into my dolphins. Okay. The dolphins are putting up 35 at the half. halftime score.
00:54:54
Speaker
The Dolphins will have 35 of them. Thanks. Yes. So we need to make this two touchdown parlay. You need to tell me what players I'm putting in it. Because Tiger kill is one of them. Who's the other? You just need to let me know. Well, don't forget. I had to parlay for a Tiger kill three touchdowns with Kenny Pickett over 275. I bet it's locked. We can make another one tomorrow when I come over. We can make another one. We can make another one. Well, we definitely could.
00:55:23
Speaker
And then honestly, it's not a main slate take. But I think if you want to bet Travis ETN plus two or three touchdowns on Monday night, I think I like that bet. Nice. Nice. It's going to toss that out there. I might throw a Hot 10 on one of those. Amen, that Hot 10. I had a discussion about that Hot 10 at dinner tonight.
00:55:49
Speaker
She says, she says she'd get it back to you. I was like, girl, we're going to make it all tomorrow anyway. So it doesn't matter. I believed in her. I was downing her. And then when I looked at my phone at the half when there was no touchdowns, I'm like, she still has a chance. Fair, fair. All right. Well, I want to give you another Steelers take, but I'm not. Tune into the Wednesday show, go back and listen to that. If you want to hear how I feel, really feel.
00:56:17
Speaker
about the Pittsburgh Steelers and their offense and their chance to be optimal this week. But one dolphins take deserves another chill. It deserves another. Tyreek Hill is going to get there. Tyreek Hill will have a fantastic day, but brother Raheem will have more DK points than Tyreek Hill.
00:56:44
Speaker
It's hot. I heard what I said. It's Brother Raheem week. That 1% on Brother Raheem. We'll take some people to the top of tournaments tomorrow. It's hot. It's a hot take. Okay. Amen. I keep so hot on the deli. Now watch us come out. Now watch us come out coming in at the half. Dolphins are up ten to seven.
00:57:11
Speaker
That's what we're hoping for. But as always for Dale, who's sleeping for Baker, who's I think now getting off of work. And of course for my main man, chill, joining me tonight on the DFS deli, we're going to go ahead and close up the shop. And of always, as always, we will see you all at the top. Good luck with your tournaments tomorrow.