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2024 NFL Playoff Predictions: Bills vs Cowboys?
136 Plays10 months ago
Welcome to "The DFS Deli," your ultimate destination for navigating the thrilling world of the 2024 NFL playoffs and maximizing your DFS and betting success! Join us at the intersection of fantasy, betting lines, and player props as we break down the matchups, share expert predictions, and uncover the hidden gems that could lead you to victory.
Hosted by a dynamic team of fantasy enthusiasts and betting aficionados, "The DFS Deli" serves up a smorgasbord of insights, strategies, and bold predictions that will keep you ahead of the game. From wild card chaos to championship showdowns, we're here to help you make the most informed decisions for your DFS lineups and betting slips.
In each episode, we'll dissect the latest betting lines, explore player props with the most potential, and provide a comprehensive analysis of the key players and teams in the playoffs. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the waters of daily fantasy sports, our podcast is your trusted companion.
Expect a delectable blend of statistical analysis, insider information, and a touch of humor to make your playoff journey not only profitable but thoroughly enjoyable. We're not just breaking down the games; we're serving up a feast of actionable insights to give you the edge in your DFS competitions and betting endeavors.
So, grab a seat at "The DFS Deli" table, where every episode is a winning recipe for playoff success. Don't miss out on the fun and fortune – join us as we navigate the twists and turns of the 2024 NFL playoffs, one bet and player prop at a time!
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Transcript
Playoff Prediction Episode Kickoff
00:00:01
Speaker
All right. 18 weeks has led up to this. We are here for wild car weekend on a special edition of the DFS deli. A familiar face from earlier in the year has returned and we're going to break down all the predictions that we can, we can muster up on a special playoff prediction episode of the DFS deli. So pull up a chair, have a seat, grab your favorite adult beverage and come on in.
Evan's Podcast & Betting Reflections
00:00:44
Speaker
Welcome in to a special edition of the DFS deli. I of course am your proprietor of this delicatessen Salih Ali Shahid and back from the no broken legs podcast, Evan and I'm going to butcher the last name but correct it. Bill Fiore.
00:01:01
Speaker
Del Fiore got it. It's close enough, baby. So if you check out us here at the DFS deli, make sure to check out my boy Evan and my other buddy Jimmy on no broken legs. They break down everything you need to know from a betting standpoint to get you those sweet, sweet playoff duckets. But I get to talk to you first, Evan, because
00:01:22
Speaker
we uh we did a we did a special mid-season episode kind of predicting what we thought the playoff landscape was going to shake out to be and i uh i couldn't we're talking about we got them all right yeah every every last every last one of them but uh first off man evan how you been how's how's uh how's everything going in your life bro
Playoff Betting Strategies Discussion
00:01:44
Speaker
It's going really well. Podcast has been going well. Jimmy and I have been making picks. It wasn't the best of years for us, but some future bets came through last week. I had to hedge against some future bets because Atlanta and Jacksonville just really made me sad.
00:02:05
Speaker
Plus going into the playoffs and you know, we'll search in for that six and a weekend. Used to be the weekend, which was hard enough, but now it's six and oh, which is damn near impossible.
Derrick Henry's Future Speculations
00:02:16
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. I had a couple of friends text me after the Raven Steelers game and I said, you better bet the house on the Tennessee Titans tomorrow.
00:02:26
Speaker
you better bet your mortgage on the Titans tomorrow because ain't no way the Steelers are missing the playoffs now and lo and behold my king in his last hurrah put the Jaguars to bed shout out to Derek Henry my favorite running back of all time if this truly is your last snap as a Tennessee Titan
00:02:46
Speaker
we are going to miss the holy hell out of you I don't know where he ends up next year maybe maybe retires I heard he was battling some CTE issues but seeing what the running back market was last off season I can't imagine it's gonna be better this off season even for somebody like Derek Henry I mean he's just always got a lot of miles and
00:03:06
Speaker
You can probably get 90% of the production of Derek Henry in a fifth round pick. I was going to say in the fifth or sixth round, you won't get the peak. I mean, I think Derek Henry next year could still be good enough to win you two or three games, but that's about all you're getting out of him is two or three games. The rest of the season, he's going to be a liability.
00:03:25
Speaker
I think that's what they're going to expect as well.
Wildcard Games Analysis
00:03:27
Speaker
I mean, you got guys like Zeke that came in this year. He had a couple of spike games, but like, what were you actually expecting with him over the long term? And I mean, like, but again, you got guys like Dalvin Cook that completely flamed out and ended up well, when I saw the playoff roster. So I mean, good for him, I guess. I mean, I don't know what that's going to do for them. It didn't, it didn't seem to work out for the Jets. So I don't know why it's going to work out now.
00:03:51
Speaker
Hey man, if it's August, you got somebody that can hold on to the ball that doesn't fumble, I'll I'm Melvin freaking Gordon. Like that makes me call in the question. We don't need to talk about the Ravens this week because they actually have a buy. But like Melvin Gordon in the rain, what did you think was going to happen? I don't, I was a guarantee this is a term overcoming.
00:04:13
Speaker
But I digress, but you're here to help me. Yeah, they're just going to walk us inwards to be out in the field. That was really what that was all about. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. But you're here to help me kind of sift through the six wild card games that we got going on this weekend and kind of give you and the viewers and the listeners some initial thoughts about what could potentially happen this weekend. So before we get into that,
00:04:37
Speaker
You and I text along with Jimmy, but you and I really go back and forth about a lot because we're heavily opinionated
Debate on NFL Awards
00:04:44
Speaker
about some stuff. Before we get into the games, I kind of want to have a short, very quick, brief, hopefully debate about a couple of awards that are going to be candid out here shortly for regular season. Two in particular that I'm really not concerned about because I think we know the obvious winners, but I have a gripe against
00:05:07
Speaker
both of them. And I kind of want to get your opinion on the matters. I'm interested in what your grape is. I'll start with a lesser subject. Come back player of the year. So obviously Demar Hamlin has been favored since Timbuktu. Like as soon as he like minus two tend to start the season.
00:05:26
Speaker
Yeah, and it really has it's like the only people that have snuck up is our own Joe Flacco who you know came from the couch and now he's on the field leading a playoff team and Demar Hamlin who died and now he's not dead. So my gripe, of course, and I want to get your opinion here is that Demar Hamlin was active for five games. He's recorded two whole tackles this entire year. There's about 110 snaps.
00:05:56
Speaker
Yeah, there should be a separate award or category. And I mean, I condone what the Marhamlin has been doing for the community. I definitely appreciate everything that he's done towards getting training CPR training, you know, things like that in not just the NFL level, but in high school college level, like what he's done is remarkable.
00:06:15
Speaker
Yes, it would be awareness of heart issues in general. My mom worked in a cardiology lab doing chest tests as a nurse for 20 plus years. So heart disease is number one killer of Americans. So to raise awareness to that and make sure that people are starting to take their heart health a little more seriously is great in and of itself.
00:06:36
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. But that doesn't deserve cutbacks later in the year. That's a different award, though. Really different award, and that's my gripe. So if I had, because my ticket obviously won't be cash, because my ticket from the very beginning of the year was Baker Mayfield, and that's not going to happen. That's actually who I think really deserves this award.
00:06:56
Speaker
So we agree. Okay. All right. We good. We good. I'll explain the Joe Flacco thing. I understand the Joe Flacco thing and I understand the Demar Hamlin thing. It's a great story, but there has to be, if you want this award to matter in the future, if you want this award to be legitimate, it has to mean something. And Demar Hamlin's played five games. He's played about 110 snaps. And I know Joe Flacco has been really instrumental in winning and helping the Browns make the playoffs, but he's played five games. He hasn't even played a third of the season.
00:07:26
Speaker
Correct. So next year, what if Nick Chubb comes back and plays five games and just racks up 950 yards with like 11 touchdowns, no fumbles. And it's just a mad man. And then he gets hurt and misses the rest of the season. Is he the comeback player of the year next year then?
00:07:44
Speaker
Well, that was a mad man for five games. That's the, you know, that would be an even higher bar than Joe Flacco has set in his five games. Cause he's been pretty good. He's been great once and pretty good. And then okay. And two games.
00:07:57
Speaker
Right, right. I think that this year has been kind of watered down because there wasn't a lot of stories to latch on to. Next year, you're going to have Herbert coming back from injury, Burrow coming back from injury, Nick Chubb coming back from injury, along with a slew of other Kirk Cousins. There's going to be a lot of guys starting quarterbacks that are coming
MVP Race Analysis
00:08:16
Speaker
back next year. So that award is really going to be up for grabs. But like you said, the meaningfulness of it this year, because it was watered down last year when Gino Smith won it, remember?
00:08:27
Speaker
because it was, I thought that was worthy. Gino is terrible. There was no other stories is what I'm saying. There was no other. Although I guess if you say comeback player, that would mean they were good and then they weren't good. And now they're good again. So in Gino's case, he was never good. So it couldn't have been a comeback. It would just be always finally good. Right. He came back from
00:08:48
Speaker
you know, second string, and he became first string. He was almost out of the league. Yeah, I mean, I get it from a story perspective, there's nobody else there. But that's what these awards have been. And that's what these awards have become. And we just sort of just go along with it. It's about the story. It's about the narrative. Jimmy, I talked Jimmy's head off about this a couple years ago, the last time I bet and an award
00:09:12
Speaker
was Mahomes for MVP, and it was the year that Aaron Rodgers just stole the MVP the last two weeks of the season because Green Bay was sort of a fringe playoff team. Meanwhile, Mahomes has Kansas City at 15-1. He doesn't even have to play the last week, and he was amazing that year. And in week 14, it was Mahomes' the odds-on MVP, and then all of a sudden, you get this big media swell. So as a better, I just, I think your money's
00:09:39
Speaker
better placed in over unders for when totals because I think it's easier to win money that way because like just this year alone, like
00:09:49
Speaker
We can argue about how good Baker was in terms of the league, but Tampa Bay was supposed to be terrible. I mean, they were supposed to be Caleb Williams, sweepstakes terrible. Absolutely. They were under, it was like five and a half. So nobody thought they were going to be good. Baker got signed for $4 million. He made half his money in that win they just got. Yeah, I just said the win. Yep, absolutely. Yep.
00:10:12
Speaker
So it just feels like the media is finding a way to run with the now story, but they're losing the plot of what this award really should be, which is who really came back? Who came back and played a full season and was good over the course of a full season? And Tampa Bay has the second most expected yards per pass in the league.
00:10:38
Speaker
Baker's been good. He's been good. It's not the same. Baker's a top five guy. He's been playing like a 10-ish, like kind of like he was in 2020. He's the eighth to 12th best quarterback in the league. And sometimes he can be like maybe the fifth or sixth quarterback on a day, like best quarterback that day. But he's, you know, to lead into that game, he's beat up. So, I mean, I don't know what's going to happen there with them and Philly. Everybody seems to be beat up in that game. Tampa can't move the ball. Philly can't stop anybody. So,
00:11:06
Speaker
That'll be a classic, you know, the reverse of what we normally say. So it would be the. The unstoppable force against the movable. Yeah, the movable object.
00:11:19
Speaker
Very true, very true. Yeah, we kind of agree on that then. So we both agree that it should be a full body of work, a full season. My games is too few. I know there's no, there's no limitation on that for the writers. So they're just gonna, it's gonna go to Joe Flacco probably or DeMar Hamlin, because the story's there. Not because the award actually means anything. So. Absolutely.
00:11:44
Speaker
And like I said, I'm just sad that my ticket won't cash for that future. I got it. I got it hot. I got Baker Mayfield at like, I got to check. He was over. He was, I think when we did the, our over unders pre-season pod for all the divisions, I think it was like plus 2,200. Oh yeah. It was, it was around that area. I was like, where's Baker? And I kept scrolling up. There he is. Let me throw a hot tin on that real quick.
00:12:12
Speaker
But the other 100 that I'm going to lose is the MVP one, because obviously, as we spoke at the middle of the year, I put two MVP vets in. I put the one for Christian McCaffrey, which his touchdown kind of tapered off. But I kind of understood, especially since he basically sat last week and then the week before he got hurt. So I kind of get that. But it was the emergence of Lamar Jackson and more so Lamar Jackson's winning.
00:12:42
Speaker
is what really kind of propelled him to basically be this year's MVP. I mean, it's going to happen. Like Lamar is going to be the MVP. It was the head to head nature of it too. It felt like this was built up as an MVP matchup when it was Lamar versus San Francisco. And then when they went and played Miami, you know, it was the MVP thing. So I don't, again, I don't necessarily agree.
00:13:05
Speaker
with how they're deciding this. I do think Lamar is probably the most valuable player. Him and Dak would be probably on the shortlist because Dak's been sensational this year. I know they get schooled by San Francisco every time they play him, but Dak has been fantastic. They've blown out. They've had nine 20 plus point wins.
00:13:27
Speaker
Oh yeah, they'll put it on you. They gave him the shit out of bad teams. And he's been great and put up some gaudy numbers. But it seems like it's going to the right person this year with Lamar, especially with how much that offense is geared around his threat to run the football from the quarterback position. It just really creates mismatches and it creates a lot of problems that
00:13:51
Speaker
defenses have been adjusting the last few years. And this is the third straight. Your points have gone down and your quarterback's ability to run.
00:14:01
Speaker
and create, take advantage of spaces that are created with the way they're covering now, the way they're running coverages now, where they're running different zone concepts on each side of the field. It just, it opens up some areas that if you have a mobile quarterback, then you can, you can actually make some hay and find ways to exploit that. But so in that aspect, I think,
00:14:26
Speaker
Lamar has been the MVP this year, so I don't have any I don't have any problems with that But I do have problems with past issuances of this award right and I mean here and that's where my beef that's where my beef and Let me preface this bias will come in
00:14:43
Speaker
Here we go, hear me out and then feel free to rebuttal and then we can get into the games, okay? So my argument against Dakota Prescott was that the Dallas Cowboys last year, even pre-injury, were winning games with Cooper Rush. They weren't winning games despite Cooper Rush. So I'm not saying Cooper Rush is some kind of world-beating quarterback because Dakota has been incredible this year.
00:15:04
Speaker
It props to him coming out and saying, I'm not throwing 10 interceptions this year. He threw nine. He's been great. Highest TD to interception ratio in the league. Props, butt comma.
00:15:17
Speaker
It's the key wins that kind of concerned me and the key losses because the big knock on Dallas basically all this year and Miami to a lesser extent was y'all ain't beat nobody. You know what I'm saying? Like they've both raced bad teams like you've mentioned but when they faced different competition it was
00:15:37
Speaker
Oh, like what happened? Like me, like I can throw those game out. Like that, that, that's just a fool. Yeah, those things happen. Okay. But it was, he had the defining game against Philly. I get it. But boat race by the 49ers lost to the dolphins and the stats, yes, are there, but it's just those key defining wins, right?
00:16:00
Speaker
Yeah, again, he can be replaced by Cooper Rush, and then the Cowboys would be a, a par team, certainly not a subpar team, but a par team capable of winning games like he proved. Last year in Lamar's case is that we had Tyler Huntley, the Tyler Huntley experience, and it didn't seem like anything changed. I mean, this team was still humming on offense. This team was
00:16:23
Speaker
I wouldn't say they were humming on offense. They could move the ball. Everyone was playing Tyler Huntley. Tyler Huntley was putting up numbers. Remember in a short sample. Yeah. Even though it doesn't mean anything. Tyler Huntley was a pro baller. This man did make the pro ball. Matt Jones was like the seventh alternate to the Pro Bowl one year. Like nobody cares about Pro Bowl. Congratulations. Matt Jones actually went.
00:16:53
Speaker
Yeah, no, he was like the seventh alternate. There were like four quarterbacks ahead of him that passed. Right. But I'm saying that the Ravens were a fumble on the goal line to Cincinnati away from being in the AFC championship game.
00:17:05
Speaker
But that was that was because their defense was was really good and not to say their defense isn't really good this year. I would say about Dak, there are two plays that account for less than one foot of actual space that if they go the other way, I think we're talking about
00:17:24
Speaker
Dak a lot differently and the Cowboys a lot differently. And that's when Dak was running to the sidelines and he stepped out of bounds by like half a foot or not even. I mean, it was like six inches. Yeah, that's half a foot. And then the play against Miami before the fumble with the fullback, that dude was like, he wasn't in, but he was not even an eighth of an inch short of the goal line. What's up with $20 run?
00:17:49
Speaker
I forget exactly who it was, but somebody was like almost in the end zone and then they reviewed it and it was like, oh, he actually is not in the end zone. It's like the two inch line. Yeah, because Tony Pollard's full ass was in the end zone and then he left the ball with his body.
00:18:05
Speaker
Those two plays go the other way. It's just a very different story. Dallas is the one seed, and we're saying, oh, well, if they get San Francisco at home, can they actually do it? Not that I think they can. I think San Francisco just has their number. But the important thing for Dallas is they're on the opposite side of the bracket. And they're looking at
00:18:28
Speaker
Well, we'll talk about the Rams here in a little bit, but I mean, if you're Dallas, your best case scenario is San Francisco has to play the Rams and the Rams beat them and you have to beat the Rams. I think that matches up better for Dallas than San Francisco. That's definitely the best case scenario. I don't think Dallas' defense this year is as good as it was last year.
00:18:48
Speaker
I think they were pretty great last year. And I think this year they're just good. They haven't dropped off much, but defenses across the league have gotten better. So Dallas not being quite, you know, even if Dallas was as good as they were last year, collectively the league has gotten better. So they're sort of maybe look a little worse comparatively. Right. Um, I say all that to say this Cowboys minus deck, they're an okay team Ravens minus Lamar. They're an okay team with those two, it makes them elite.
00:19:19
Speaker
with of course, so I'm about to mention Josh Allen, with Kyle Allen, the bills are behind the Jets in the standings. Yeah, but Kyle Allen's terrible. Exactly. Josh Allen does way more for this team than any other quarterback probably debatably does for their respective team. Yeah, but he's also the reason they lost a lot of games.
00:19:45
Speaker
He's also the reason they've won all 11 games. Minus the Dallas game, because that was all the running game. Kyle Allen could have won that game. But with the stats are there, compared to Lamar, he has 15 more total touchdowns than him. He has more passing yards, albeit one more game. He has 300 less rushing yards. But again, like I said, the discrepancy between the rushing and their passing, Josh Allen has five more passing touchdowns, 10 more rushing touchdowns.
00:20:14
Speaker
And if let's say the losses go the other way, like let's say that 12th man isn't in the Bronco game and they actually missed the field goal. Let's say Gabe Davis runs the right way and they actually win that game.
00:20:27
Speaker
No, that's fair. They've had a couple of games where it's like I said about Dallas. If you take, you know, six inches here, three inches here, a bounce of the ball here. Hey man, I was sweating out there 10 and a half over, under all goddamn years. You make a good case for Josh Allen. I think the problem with Josh Allen as the MVP is he's also the source of a lot of their problems and maybe
00:20:54
Speaker
The real issue with that team is they need somebody to do more. That offense can't just be him, be great. That's what's so difficult for them in the playoffs is he has to just be Superman for four straight games and that's really difficult.
00:21:11
Speaker
It is really difficult to play at 100 for four straight games. Like, this isn't Madden. This is real life. And those guys are getting hit. And defenses are complex. And they're scouting you. And they know exactly what you're going to do when they put you in certain circumstances. So Mike Tomlin's just sitting at home coming up with ways to bait Josh Allen into interceptions. And he's probably going to be successful at it. But I think
00:21:39
Speaker
It is interesting for you to say that Josh Allen is a bigger part of the Bills offense than anybody else in the league because of how Lamar centric Baltimore is with their offense. But I actually think you're right. Josh Allen has to do more. He doesn't have really the running back help that Lamar has.
00:22:01
Speaker
receiver wise, I think they're pretty, pretty equal. I do like Mark Andrews better. And this, this rookie that they've been playing with him being heard, likely has played very well. I think he's afforded himself very nicely and is, as a Browns fan, that's something that worries me because if you can put two tight end sets out there where they can both catch the ball.
00:22:21
Speaker
That's a scary thing to think about because when we saw New England do that, they looked unstoppable because that's where Lamar likes to throw the ball is down the seams and down the middle. That's a scary proposition if you can run those two guys out there, but that's a problem for next year.
00:22:38
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. So the problem for this year is that we'll get into it right now. Like I said, I just want to get my Josh Allen should be there, but he won't spiel out there. Yeah, it's going to be Lamar. But I think you have a case to make that. I think Allen has a case to make. I think Dak has a case to make. And it's not going to be considered because this is the media environment we're in, which is why I will again recommend all of your listeners, like I do for all the No Broken Legs listeners, do not bet any of these awards.
00:23:07
Speaker
Yeah. Except in the Super Bowl. That's the only time bet on whoever the quarterback is of the team you think is going to win the Super Bowl because that's almost assuredly going to be the MVP. Yeah, it's just like minus whatever it's going to be for this year. I mean, I get it. It's a sure thing. Always check those odds with the money line odds for the team. Sure. And then get the better odds. Absolutely. Absolutely.
00:23:31
Speaker
Um, well, speaking of a Cleveland problem, we'll talk about our first game of the wildcard weekend, because first up on the docket as the palate cleanser on Saturday afternoon at four 30 Cleveland Browns headed to the Houston Texans, the now CJ Stroud led Houston Texans.
Wildcard Game Previews
00:23:47
Speaker
Unlike their first matchup, uh, it is 44 and a half as the total, uh, Houston is going to be plus one 20 on the Moneyline minus one 45 for the brownies.
00:23:56
Speaker
and the Browns got started at minus one and a half, but they've been bet up to minus two and a half now. All the odds are courtesy of BetMGM. What's going to happen? Are we really favorite in this game? In Joe Flacco led Browns.
00:24:15
Speaker
I'm truly shocked when I saw this line because CJ Stroud has been so good. And I think a lot of people may be looking at what happened in that first game and maybe taking that a little too seriously because it wasn't just the fact that CJ Stroud was out, Houston was missing their top two defensive pass rushers. That makes a big difference. So they're not going to let, I assume they're not going to let Amari Cooper just run wild like they did last time.
00:24:44
Speaker
So yeah, I would hope not, but I gotta be. The thing that has me most concerned about this game is listening to local Cleveland media. Be so confident in this game and not just confident that the Browns are the better team, but confidence that Joe Flacco is better than CJ Stroud, which just seems.
00:25:05
Speaker
very odd and the last 20 plus years of being a Browns fan has told me that when there's this collective notion that the Browns are assuredly something that is almost like that is just a huge warning sign that they are not that thing because people just like to hope they like to be emotional about these things and I get it. But we're talking about gambling here. So emotion can't play a factor in that.
00:25:34
Speaker
And I have no idea what's going to happen in this game because nothing the Browns did defensively is going to translate because Case Keenum can't throw the ball more than five yards downfield. And CJ Stroud's ability to stretch the field without turning the ball over is something to watch.
00:25:52
Speaker
They don't have a very good offensive line, so he knows how to get the ball out quickly. So that's something to look for very, very early in that game is do the Browns get home or is Stroud getting the ball out to his receivers? That's what I'm kind of trying to figure out right now. Because like I said, I don't know who's going to win this game. It would be shocking to me if Joe Flacco continues to play as well as he has.
00:26:17
Speaker
That is, that is what is the most extraordinary thing about what's happened is how good he's been. He's turning the ball over a ton, but if he's going to be connecting on three or four deep shots a game, you can live with a turnover or two. I got news for you, man. The Houston Texans are the exact same team as the Cleveland Browns, the exact same team. I think Texans are better offensively and the Browns are a little better defensively though. I mean, Nico Collins is Amari Cooper.
00:26:46
Speaker
I mean, Joe Flacco is what he used to think he was with C.J. Stroud is. Both have beat up offensive lines. Both have questionable injuries on the defensive line, but they do have one stud on each edge rusher. There is no second receiver because Tankdale and Noah Brown are hurt. And then... Elijah Moore is going to be back this week. The Browns' problems are solved. Elijah, he's back.
00:27:09
Speaker
right. David and Joku is basically Dalton Schultz. They're running game. Suss, both running games are sus. You know, the difference is Houston's playing at home and then the Browns are not. So as a resident Browns fan, let's don't, don't let the bill stuff fool you. I am a Browns fan as well. Even though this is my horse in the race, there is so much money bet on the Browns right now.
00:27:36
Speaker
that it makes me want to do the exact opposite and bet Houston this game. My pride, my heart, my soul wants to see the Browns win. Of course I do. But this is a different Texans team than it was the one you beat down a couple of weeks ago.
00:27:56
Speaker
Like, Stroud is that guy. He's that guy. I mean, simple as that. So if I were a betting man, which of course I am, this two and a half is sus, I would take the money line with the Texans. I think the Texans are gonna win this game. I hate to say it. My heart hates to say it. I think the Texans are gonna win.
00:28:16
Speaker
Yeah, I can't wait to hear what Jimmy has to say about this game on our pod because he's been on Houston all year. He was all over CJ Stroud being good. He explained why he thought he would be good. He said a lot of the concepts that they ran at Ohio State would translate for him into the NFL and boy oh boy was Jimmy Wright.
00:28:37
Speaker
Again, it comes back to the turnovers to be as effective throwing the ball downfield as he is and not turn the ball over. You see Flacco do it. He can't go more than four passes without putting the ball in jeopardy.
00:28:50
Speaker
So what's going to happen there? I think the home field advantage is going to be interesting. How many Browns fans go to this game? And how many Texans fans are at this game? Because you know Browns fans are going to want to travel. And it's just a question of how well were they travel? How much is Houston going to let that happen? I just want to also know what Houston did to deserve the 4 o'clock weekend slot on Saturday when they make the playoffs. Like, they may as well just pencil that in. If Houston makes the playoffs, they get the 430 game on Saturday for reasons. Reasons, yeah.
00:29:22
Speaker
Yeah, I like that. I guess I would say right now I'm leaning Houston with the points. And especially the tidal wave going towards Cleveland, like it's just setting up like we've seen so many times before. It's so difficult to see that and not like as a better go. Oh, man.
00:29:40
Speaker
Like, I'm getting odds and points with Houston. Like, if this ended up being a one-point game, nobody would be surprised. And you're gonna give me an extra point and a half? Like, if I wait two days, is it gonna get to three, three and a half? At three and a half, I love Houston. Oh, yeah, that's it. Fire that up. Big time. Big time. You like the 44 and a half?
00:30:01
Speaker
You almost have to because I think these teams are going to push the ball down the field. So you're going to get some big plays and you're going to get some turnovers. So that should lead to some scoring drives. And this, you know, what, 27, 24 get you there by plenty. 24, 20 basically get you there. So 24, 21 does get you there, which I think is a likely outcome of this game's 24, 21 one way or the other. Yeah. And I mean, we're indoors too, so no weather concerns. So, I mean, it should, it should be.
00:30:31
Speaker
I like the over and, again, Houston with the points, absolutely. Yeah. We'll slide over to a game that does have weather concerns. Miami and Kansas City will be your nightcap. So cold. Yep. Miami's traveling to Kansas City. 44 points spread right now. Miami is plus 140 on the money line, minus 210 for the Kansas City Chiefs. And the ghost of the Miami Dolphins are in the playoffs against the shell of the Kansas City Chiefs.
00:31:01
Speaker
Who do you got and why? Oh, man. I have no idea. This is one of those Vincini from the Princess Bride. I kind of think Kansas City's cooked. I think they have real problems. They can't be solved. And I think they start with Travis Kelsey. He's kind of old and beat up. And that's not to say that he isn't one of the best tight ends in the league. He still is. He's just not a historically great tight end. And without other help receiving around him,
00:31:29
Speaker
they haven't found ways to crack defenses and how they're shifting coverages around to really cover large sections of the field and adapting to what offenses are doing with spacing. So he can't win one-on-one matchups as frequently as he used to, but it's also going to be negative 10 degrees with the windshield, maybe colder.
00:31:50
Speaker
And I don't know what Miami is going to look like when they have to face those types of weather conditions. It's going to be, they're very finesse. Most of it's probably not going to be playing in this game. And for some reason, they don't want to give Ashane the ball. I don't know why Ashane wasn't running the ball more in that game against Buffalo. McDaniel got pass happy like we've seen Shanahan get, like we've seen Stefanski and a lot of other coaches get.
00:32:14
Speaker
If that's going to be his game plan, I don't like Miami at all in this game because it's going to open up drops. It's going to be cold. It's tough to catch the ball. And those guys just don't like playing in the cold. Like, two has never really played in cold weather. And it's one thing to say you've never played in cold weather and then go play when it's 25 degrees and maybe a little snowy. It's going to be negative 10. Yeah, that's fine. Yeah, that's fine. Negative 10. Negative 10. That's a whole other ball game. It's going to be brutal.
00:32:43
Speaker
Oh yeah, the under is shining in this game, 44 and a half, or 44 points is way too much. Yeah, I couldn't believe that number. I just had 44, and I would, just in terms of if you do daily fantasy for this weekend, I would shy away from both of these two teams. Maybe Pacheco. Maybe Pacheco is somebody I would put, I would maybe put in my lineup, because I think this is a game where he'll get a lot of carries. Yeah, this is going to be a game.
00:33:07
Speaker
Yeah. This is going to be a game where I think Kansas city is going to go ahead and establish the run. Like they've been kind of hinting at over the past couple of weeks, not my, you know, taking out week 18, but like, if they can establish the one with Isaiah Pacheco and just play solid defense, like they've been doing pretty much the entirety of the year, they don't have to throw to these bumps. I mean, they don't have to throw the guys that can't catch. So I mean, right.
00:33:29
Speaker
Yeah, I think this is gonna be a game where they can control the flow of the game. And like you said, the conditions do not favor Miami whatsoever. I was on this podcast two weeks ago when the Ravens were playing the Dolphins.
00:33:44
Speaker
And I said to my buddy, and we got a big old argument about it, which is fine. I said that Dolphins game against the Ravens is a must win. Because if you leave the division up to the bills, A, you're gonna lose. And B, you're gonna end up going to Kansas City to a matchup that you don't want. I mean, like, this is not the smoke you want. Now they gotta go in.
00:34:08
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. They've already, they've already let him hold the L. So it's like that game was in Miami. I don't exactly remember, but I'm pretty sure that game was in Miami. Yeah. I can't remember at the top of my head, but yeah, the Kansas city did beat them, but it's like, and again, we, we got the fraud alert weeks ago. Miami hasn't beat anybody, but Dallas and they really got lucky in that game. I think with the turnover by the fullback,
00:34:34
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, we already mentioned. Wasn't that the game CD lamb had a fumble in the end zone? Or was that Detroit? That might have been the Detroit game. That was the Detroit game. Yeah. There's just been a lot of those like random little plays that can go one way or the other. They've gone against Dallas in games I've seen and it's like, wow. That's a game where I'm kind of favoring Kansas City. Again, these are
00:35:00
Speaker
I really like bouncing stuff off of Jimmy because we sort of help shape each other's picks. But yeah, I definitely like Kansas City on the money line here. I think that's a team that's going to win. I don't see how Miami can win this game. It just doesn't look like a game that suits their style at all. And they're just 1-5 against teams with winning records. They're a bad, good team. They're a good team, but they're bad against other good teams.
00:35:28
Speaker
Right, I like the under 44 and I like Kansas City to cover. I think Miami's gonna get absolutely obliterated. I don't think they stand a puncher's chance in this game, honestly. I think Miami would have preferred playing Buffalo again. Yeah, I mean, that probably would have been a better matchup.
00:35:53
Speaker
for them, they would have been at home. They would have played them back to back weeks. Like it would have been better. And, and, but the thing about that game, if that would have happened is that the bills mafia wouldn't have left town. They just stay there. Speaking of the mafia, the one o'clock game on Sunday is going to be Pittsburgh traveling to Buffalo, Buffalo 10 point favorites in this one.
00:36:20
Speaker
a putrid 36 and a half total with plus 400 for Pittsburgh on the money line, minus five 50 for the bills on their money line. Um, Buffalo, the anti Miami dolphins, they're five and one against playoff teams. And I think they're peaking at the right time. Of course, I think that the Steelers do have some stuff going on because they have learned to establish the run with Najee Harris and Jalen Warren.
00:36:46
Speaker
and they let Mason Rudolph pick his shot. So basically, he's just chunking the ball deep. That's what he's doing. It's hand-off, hand-off, short stuff, short stuff, and I'm gonna give you one ride to Deontay Johnson, or one ride to Katie Pickett, or George Pickens, excuse me, and that's their offense. Their defense is a great strategy. It's a great strategy, but their defense is gonna be missing a key player as TJ Watt does have an MCL sprain,
00:37:14
Speaker
So he's out of this game and that was 18 of their 40 some odd sacks on the year that's gone. So yeah, you can look at Pittsburgh's win loss record when TJ Watts on the field and when he's not and it's a noticeable difference. The defense gives up about four or five more points a game.
00:37:32
Speaker
It's gonna be real tough for Pittsburgh to win this game, but on the other hand, does Josh Allen throw three interceptions? Yeah, maybe. I don't know. Is he gonna throw two pick sixes or have a fumble that gets returned for a touchdown? Maybe. I would be shocked if Pittsburgh won this game. I would also find it hilarious if Pittsburgh won this game, because even if they win, everybody in Pittsburgh's still gonna run Mike Tomlin out of town.
00:37:59
Speaker
I can't wait for it. I'm totally here for it. Jimmy and I have been talking about it for weeks. Please get rid of Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. And you know what, Rooney, go see what you can find on that open market. Good luck. Yeah, yeah, I hear you. I think this is one of those things where, again, I think my bias is present. However, I think that this is another weather game, too. I mean, it's going to be frigid. It's going to be a little snowy.
00:38:27
Speaker
Yeah, but I mean this is probably going to lean probably already leaning under and Pittsburgh with the points just because there's probably not going to be a lot of points scored in this game. Like this could be the type of game where field goals beyond 2530 yards are just like you can't even try it. Yeah, Nate impossible.
00:38:45
Speaker
Yeah, if you've got the crosswind blowing, we've seen that here in games in Cleveland where it's just the wind makes it impossible to kick anything really much more than 10, 15 yards. So a lot of these teams want to go for it on fourth down anyway. So you may see a game like that that winds up being 7-6 with one touchdown on each side and somebody misses an extra point.
00:39:15
Speaker
That's a game that I would advise everybody wait until day of and get a look at what the weather conditions are like. Because if the weather conditions are somewhat clear and it's just cold, then I like Josh Allen in fantasy because even though he's going to turn the ball over once or twice, he's going to put numbers up and he's going to get in the end zone. So he's going to have three touchdowns. He may have a pick or two, but he's going to get to 300 total yards and he's going to have two or three touchdowns. And you're just not going to be able to find that with anybody else except
00:39:43
Speaker
maybe the Dallas Green Bay game or Detroit Rams. That's going to be a juicy one. But yeah, I think you start off. I think you started the day kind of slow. But I think that the bills will cover this 10. And honestly, I think the I think the 36 and a half is kind of low. Regardless, rain, sleet or snow. I think I think Josh Allen is going to come through and put up some gaudy numbers against the Steelers.
00:40:06
Speaker
because again, that TJ wide injury is just too big. It's just too much for- So you think, you said they're hitting their stride. I just, last week did not look like a team that was hitting its stride, nor did the New England game look like a team that was hitting its stride. I mean, so Josh Allen is, I heard the best, I've heard the best comparison for Josh Allen. Josh Allen, it can beat, can beat the game on the hardest difficulty level only after he dies 16 times on the first level on easy.
00:40:35
Speaker
period. I mean, that's him. That's what he does. He makes everything significantly more difficult for him. And it's like, for what? Like, I don't see quarterbacks putting up, you know, he put a 360 plus in the air and 70 something on the ground in the dolphins game. And they scored two touchdowns. I mean, this is the guy that led the NFL in touchdowns total, and they have the best offense in the league. And then it's like,
00:40:58
Speaker
you statistically, and then you look at his 19 turnovers and it's like, what if he didn't do this? Like how many bills be hanging on people? Yeah, 15 and two. Without question. And again, all this in their six losses, we're all within six points. So we can be talking about like an undefeated team difficulty on normal.
00:41:23
Speaker
I don't like the Leonard Fournette stuff. What are your thoughts on that? I feel like he's taking, I feel like he's taken touches away from Cook and they need Cook to get going. And when he was really going was when they looked the most dangerous. So it feels odd that they would take stuff away from him.
00:41:40
Speaker
It's a trust thing. And like, if you, and I'm pretty sure you at least you watched the first half of the Miami game before, like I fell asleep because I, I didn't care. Cause I mean, my bills are in the playoffs, but it's a trust thing, right? Because James cook, this is going to be another year under his belt, but last year he wasn't the guy in the playoff run. So look at the Miami game when he dropped that easy wide open touchdown, which led to them not getting points. It's like, what if that were Leonard for net? Like this is a guy Leonard for net does have super bowl experience.
00:42:09
Speaker
He can block the hell out of a darn pass protection and he's going to get you two, three, four itself yards. And this is a guy that Tom Brady leaned on in the receiving game. I wouldn't be surprised if it was Leonard for net going 50 50 with James Cook moving forward.
00:42:26
Speaker
Like, here's your in between the 20s and outside of those 20s, when we get in the red zone, the money zone, you're not seeing the field. Like, this is Uncle Lenny's territory. Like, he's got the proven playoff experience to do so. Well, basically do what Dallas was doing last year with Pollard and Zeke. Bingo. You got it. You got it. So, I can be shocked if I didn't see more. I want to see Cook on the field between the 20s for sure because he helps them move the ball.
00:42:51
Speaker
Yeah, but again, it's a confidence thing and a trust thing. If he catches that touchdown, it's like, all right, you're the guy like I've seen the producer before. But even in his big game against Dallas, guess what? He dropped a wide open touchdown again. So it's like what became a great day for him could have been a greater day if he would just learn how to catch the darn ball. So again, I think those are situations where they can trust the veteran like Uncle Lenny to do things like that. So yes, I hate the talent of James Cook is gonna be off the field.
00:43:19
Speaker
But I do trust the experience of winter for net. So moving on for 430. Of course, Dallas is playing at 430, right? Of course. Green Bay. It's 50 and a half total for this game. Dallas seven and a half point favorites minus two 75 on the money line for Green Bay plus I'm sorry, minus I'm sorry, plus three 50 for Dallas. Excuse me.
00:43:53
Speaker
What did I say? What did I say? Plus? I said minus 350. Yeah. Excuse me. Minus 350. Okay. Minus 350. My bad. My bad. I apologize. I apologize. But yeah, McCarthy against Green Bay again. I don't know if that kind of narrative even matters for these guys. Green Bay is a nice story. It's a nice story. But Jordan Love has been phenomenal this year. Yeah. But this is the last two, three months. It's no longer a fluke. Yeah. This is Dallas at home though.
00:44:10
Speaker
Who? It's McCarthy. It's McCarthy. He's back.
00:44:24
Speaker
I don't really have much to keys to this game. I think Dallas beats the living crap out of the pack or something. I'm sorry. I think they cover this seven and a half and I think it's going to be relatively easy to be honest. This 50 and a half is a joke. I think it should be a lot higher than this. I think it should be at least 52. But yeah, I think Dallas is going to roll. And I think there is this the year
00:44:50
Speaker
Is this our year type of deal that we've been hearing every year from Dallas? This is the start. So, where are your thoughts? I think you're right, at least in terms of Dallas winning. I like this a lot more at six and a half, so I might go with an alt line on this. I wouldn't go with the money line because I think Dallas is going to win this by more than a field goal for sure. I think Green Bay's had a nice run, but I think Dallas is just really, really good at home, and that crowd's going to be good.
00:45:23
Speaker
I guess I just, I still don't trust Jordan Love. He's shown it for three, going on three months now. So I guess I shouldn't, but he looked so bad at the start of the year. I keep waiting for that to kind of click back in again. And I just sort of don't believe Green Bay can get it right three times in a row. That would be pretty extraordinary. We haven't seen a run of quarterback development like that at all. Like they'd be singular in that. So.
00:45:50
Speaker
I guess I trust Dallas more in this game. I still don't quite know what to do with Jordan Love. But I would assume there's going to be some points in this game. At 50 and a half, Dallas is averaging more than 30 at home. Their defense does play better at home. But this is a game where everybody will be playing all the way through. So if you like Dallas to win and cover, I definitely like the over here. It's a play with that.
00:46:15
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think that we've seen Dallas's offense flourish at home. But at the same time, they've given up big numbers to opposing offenses at home too. I mean, I saw Geno Smith go for over 303 on him. So Jordan Love is, I would say better than Geno at this point. And he's got- We don't have the receivers though. Yeah, I mean, but they've got young receivers. But the thing they do have on their side is they're young and dumb.
00:46:41
Speaker
Like I think they can just play with reckless abandon in this game, not really expecting to win. And they could all of a sudden be up, you know, 14, 10, 14, seven and say, hell, we could, we can do this. I mean, we beat this team. And then they end up losing by 21, which is probably going to happen, but still, man, I got to take Dallas in this one. I hate to say it cause I don't like that team, but comma, this is my money. This is,
00:47:09
Speaker
I'm trying to preach to the choir. Check the motion at the door when we put money on the line. That's it, man. That's it. Bias goes out the window. Hence why I'm picking the Texans. But yeah, man, not too much really of note to say about this game, but the big one, the nightcap.
00:47:25
Speaker
LA, Detroit, golf, Stafford, the return of Matt Stafford to Detroit, uh, Detroit is favorite three and a half, uh, minus way 85 with the money and I plus one 50 for, uh, the Rams, the Rams, the hottest team, one of minus, I mean, the bills, same thing, you know, but the Rams on the NFC side.
00:47:47
Speaker
They've won seven of their last eight games to get to this spot. I mean, if there's any offense that honestly, I don't want to see, it's the Rams. We got a battle-tested quarterback who's proven that he can win a Super Bowl, a battle-tested coach. It's playing really well right now too.
00:48:04
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you got the offensive rookie of the year here minus CJ Stroud and Puka Nakua who shattered all those darn records and Cooper cup again, former Super Bowl champ consummate professional. They've got the running game with Kyron Williams. And then on the other side, Dan Campbell decided to play his guys last week and lost his all pro tight end to a knee injury. So now you're down a weapon on offense that has to keep up with this Rams team and
00:48:30
Speaker
Detroit on defense ain't stopping nobody. I mean, like you're talking about Nick Mullins dropped 400 yards passing on him again. Yes, granted he gave up a bunch of interceptions, but you're talking about a team that only has eight of those on the season and six of them were to Nick Mullins. So it was like, Matt Stafford is, I would say a significant upgrade.
00:48:54
Speaker
over that guy and they barely squeaked past those games. So my inclination is that this three and a half is a lot. I mean, I think this Rams team is actually better than this Lions team. When I saw Cleveland favored in Houston, I was surprised. I wasn't shocked. I was surprised. When I saw this line, I like almost
00:49:23
Speaker
broke my rule and bet right away. I said, forget the live movement. No, no, no, no, no. I don't understand. I think the Rams are the better team. I think they're the more composed team. I think Dan Campbell playing his starters last week was a mistake. I think he was kind of acting out after what happened the week before in Dallas.
00:49:47
Speaker
the whole going for two from the seven yard line just reeked of, well, fine, we're going to go for it anyway. And it just, he kind of lost control and he was just sort of doing things out of spite. I liked that they're aggressive on fourth down, but I think they might be
00:50:07
Speaker
getting a little overagressive right now, and you don't really want that to happen, especially in the playoffs against a really good Rams team that's playing well. Jimmy and I have been all over the Rams for weeks now. I think they're going to roll in this game, and I think they're going to have a matchup against San Francisco, and that's going to be a hell of a football game.
00:50:26
Speaker
Yeah, I think Dan Campbell was trying to show his big dick energy a little too much. And I mean, it cost them is it cost them is all pro tight end. You're moving up what a seed potentially did you move up a seed Dallas? The Cowboys were gonna beat the Cowboys like I get it the Giants stomped out the Eagles. But like,
00:50:46
Speaker
Come on, man. And again, even the week before, like I said, going for two from the seven-yard line, that was him literally saying, he said, I got a small dick. And it was like, I'm going for it again. Like, bro, you lost, man. It's OK. You lost. Just take your ball and go home and come back the next week. Right, right, right. Let it carry over, and it feels like it's carrying over.
00:51:07
Speaker
Yeah, and the thing about the home field advantage is that yes, the Detroit fans have been feening for a game like this for 30 years. However, why did it have to be against Matt Stafford? I mean, no matter what it is, they're going to boo, but they're not gonna be at the stakes. At Stafford wins, there's gonna be a lot of Lions fans like, at least it's Stafford. I mean, he's one of our guys, and bro.
00:51:36
Speaker
the Rams are winning this game. I did hear somebody talking about that trade in retrospect saying that Detroit won the trade because golf has been so good and it made me want to drive my car into a pole with how stupid it was because
00:51:56
Speaker
You, like the Rams won a Superbowl. They won the trade. End of sentence. That's it. The arguments over, they won a Superbowl. Facts. They won the trade. They won the Superbowl. End of discussion. Now, X years later, you get the same team against your team that you traded for. You're close to them.
00:52:17
Speaker
Even if Detroit beats them, it doesn't change the fact that they lost the trade. They have to win the Super Bowl. If Detroit wins the Super Bowl this year, then they can say they won the trade. No, you can call it even. That way you can still call it even. I don't think it's going to matter because I think LA is going to roll. I agree. 100%. This three and a half is ridiculous. I'm definitely taking the Rams money line on that one. And 51 and a half is
00:52:47
Speaker
It's a lot of points. I think there's a lot of points. But they just score a lot of points. Yeah, I would pound the over on that one as well. In our last game, the ever beat up Philadelphia Eagles get the travel to the Fighting Baker Mayfields of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa is going to be three point dogs in this game, which I mean, I was at the three now. I saw it was two and a half earlier.
00:53:13
Speaker
Yeah, this is based off MGM. So I mean, there's a couple there's a couple books that had a load. Yeah, there might be three. Tampa's 135 with a money line and Philly minus 160.
00:53:27
Speaker
Philly's beat up. AJ Brown hurt Slim Reaper hurt. Jalen hurts finger is like doing one of these things. I don't know. This Philadelphia secondary can't stop anybody. Even they're all all world rookie.
00:53:44
Speaker
is getting benched every now and then because they can't stop the run anymore. We just saw them get their asses whipped by the Giants. I mean, this is a team that's going to try to attempt something that has not been done since the year 2000 and be one in five going into the playoffs and actually winning a first round game.
00:54:02
Speaker
So something that hasn't happened in 23 years will not happen. Tampa's going to win this game and Philly's gonna have to be forced to reevaluate what they're doing with their franchise. Tampa will win this game. That's another money line that I gotta take.
00:54:21
Speaker
This is another one that if Baker was healthy, I would be all over Tampa. But he's not healthy right now, and he missed an open Mike Evans touchdown in that game Sunday. And that's Baker usually makes that throw, but when he's hurt, he doesn't. He just can't make those types of throws when he's injured.
00:54:39
Speaker
So what is his health status for this game? And it's not like Tampa Bay is any good at running the ball to exploit Philly's sudden lack of ability to stop the run. It feels like ages ago that these two teams played. Philly really dominated Tampa because they dominated the line of scrimmage. But we've seen Philly not be able to do anything on either side on the lines. They can't run the ball. They can't stop the run.
00:55:05
Speaker
That front with Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter should be able to get to the quarterback on anybody with redic. There's no reason anybody should be able to run on them and they should dominate. And that's what they were doing earlier in the year, which was making up for their problems in the secondary. They ain't doing that anymore. And now it's just, they're just a sieve. I mean, they're going there. Their opponents are basically putting out a top five quarterback every week against them. Like you said, like there's just dudes putting up like 300 yard passing games. Like it's nothing. Like that's just what's happening.
00:55:35
Speaker
Taylor didn't try. He didn't try to drop me under. I mean, this team is that's never going to win. He's putting up 300 on you. This team is broken. This team is very suspect. They've been sus the entire year. I mean, like, what was it? 10 of their games. They went to have time with, without the lead. I mean, yeah. Yeah.
00:55:58
Speaker
because they've been really relying on the deep ball. That's what's kept them in a lot of these games. Just like we said with the Browns and Joe Flacco, they get these deep plays and it really energizes the offense. That's what Philadelphia has been living and dying with. They can get the ball downfield to Devontae Smith and AJ Brown. And when they can connect on, you know, half a dozen of those a game, that gets them enough points that their defense can hold up just enough.
00:56:21
Speaker
But I don't know I this is another game time decision for me I'm glad it's the Monday night game because we'll get a chance to see what happens leading into it and We'll get an idea of how healthy these guys are because that extra day will probably help Baker This is another one I'm just super fascinated to talk to Jimmy about because he's gonna have a lot of he's gonna have a lot to say and I'm really excited for it and
00:56:46
Speaker
I just think that Jimmy's more excited about our last pick because he's been calling the Lions frauds this entire year. The satisfaction he'll get after Matt Stafford and the boys go in and beat up on the Lions will bring some joy to his heart. Same with his Texans. It wouldn't be surprising if the Browns and the Texans lost in the first weekend of the playoffs. That should be a surprise to no one.
00:57:14
Speaker
Oh, man. Obviously, as weeks go along, I will be on, you know, talking with my other friends about the next round matchups, what's going to happen, et cetera, et cetera. But before we get out of here, let's just skip the middle rounds. We kind of had a discussion about it via text the other day. But who's in your Super Bowl as of today?
Super Bowl Predictions
00:57:39
Speaker
If you had to pick a two horses in the race today, who's going to the Super Bowl?
00:57:48
Speaker
I think it's going to be Baltimore in the AFC. And man, it's so hard to pick against San Francisco. It just really is because they're so good on both sides of the ball. I don't trust Brock Purdy in close games. I just don't. And we saw what Baltimore was able to do to them. I think I really like the Rams to make the Super Bowl this year.
00:58:16
Speaker
The Rams are going to be so scary. My God. Baltimore and LA is where we're heading. If you were to ask me right now, and that's, man, I just don't know if I was, would I bet that? I don't know. I'm probably going to throw some money out of LA now that I think about it because their odds are going to be pretty high. Because if they win or when they went on Sunday, that the mods is going.
00:58:46
Speaker
That's the team I like the most I just it's something about Dallas
00:58:51
Speaker
I just don't fully trust. It doesn't seem like it's their year. I know I've sort of gone back and forth on them saying like, oh, you know, if these four plays of three inches go their way, they're 15 and two, which they would be, but it doesn't seem like they're going to get those plays consistently this year. It seems like everything's a little too hard for them because Pollard's not really the guy that they were hoping he would be.
00:59:15
Speaker
He's not in every downback guy. He's just not. They got to get somebody else in there to help supplement. And that may be the future for a lot of these teams that don't have Josh Jacobs or Nick Chubb or Christian McCaffrey, et cetera, et cetera. Because there's only so many of those guys that can really carry an offense. There's maybe one, half a dozen to a dozen at most.
00:59:34
Speaker
And everybody else has got to get by with two. And it doesn't look like Pollard's one of those guys. Looks like you need to pair him with somebody. But luckily, you can get running back talent in the draft. So they should be able to be fine next year, but this is this year. So if it's going to be LA and Dallas, I think I like LA.
00:59:51
Speaker
Well, I'm going to go the opposite because I think our AMC NFC championship game is going to be roughly the same, but I'm picking and I hate to say it. It hurts my heart, but dim boys are going to go to the Super Bowl. That's going to be my pick for today. I think they do get past the Rams. I'm with you on the Rams team because I think the Rams can beat the 49ers. And the thing that the Cowboys need to get to the Super Bowl is to avoid the 49ers.
01:00:13
Speaker
Because if that's what happens, then the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl. But if you can beat the 49ers, it's the Rams. So I'm going to go with Dallas and the Rams in your NFC Championship game. Dallas can beat the Rams. And then on the AFC side, of course, I'm maintaining my complete bias. Buffalo Bills will be in the Super Bowl against the Dallas Cowboys. I love the way that a Ravens Bills AFC Championship game
01:00:40
Speaker
matches up right now. I think that it's just everyone in the AFC doesn't strike me as a team that could run the gauntlet like the Rams do on the NFC side. Like the Chiefs are a shell, Miami stinks, Houston is young, Cleveland is beat up and thanks to their quarterback, old. And Lamar hasn't done it in the playoffs yet either. So you're gonna get to a point where
01:01:06
Speaker
it's pushed and pulled between like who's been there and who can step up at the right moments. I think Buffalo is more than capable of going to Baltimore and getting it done this year. I just think that now that the team of destiny thing is kind of off their back and it's kind of shifting to maybe the Ravens because they've been so good this year. But again, even on the NFC side, remember the last time the Ravens were tested and the last time the Rams lost was an overtime put return to the Rams.
01:01:36
Speaker
I mean, this team has already proven they could beat the best team in the AFC. So why can't they beat any other team in the NFC? I want to put money on the Rams now too, but I'm still picking the Cowboys, Cowboys, Bills, Super Bowl right now. That would be my futures ticket if I were to throw a hundo on anything as of today.
01:02:00
Speaker
So well, I mean, if we're talking what my wallet is hoping happens, I'm hoping the Kansas City wins because that'll make my future's best. But I don't think that's going to happen. It's time to hedge and it's time to hedge. Well, it's about.
01:02:15
Speaker
Point differential really matters. When you look at the teams that have the highest point differentials, you're talking about the Bills plus 140, the Ravens plus 203. I know the Dolphins are at plus 105, but you got to remember like half of that was that Denver game when they put the 70. So that is an outlier. And I know that number matters, but
01:02:37
Speaker
it doesn't quite mean what it looks like it means they've been in a lot more games that were closer than you think of they just had this one oddball and then you've got Dallas at plus 194 and San Francisco at plus 193 so in terms of betting for your audience i will tell them what i will tell my audience the Super Bowl winners probably coming from one of those four teams
01:02:58
Speaker
That is what history tells us. That you've got to be 150 or higher in your point differential. So that would be, if you're looking for the trend, that would be the trend to make, the trend bet to make. It just looks like it's been a weird year. So I think if you're going to bet chaos, this is the year to do it. I mean, Indianapolis was almost in the playoffs, man. Pittsburgh's in the playoffs. Those two teams stink.
01:03:28
Speaker
I think this extra spot is turning into a money maker, but it's a lot like what we saw with Major League Baseball being primarily on cable.
01:03:39
Speaker
Like, yes, you're making a bunch of money on it, but you're eroding a little bit of your supporting goodwill amongst your fan base. And you may even be losing a few people due to oversaturation. So I know everything and everything's going great money wise, but it's the little things that build up over 10 to 15 years that topple these leagues or at least make them less popular. Like baseball was super popular. And then all of a sudden, 15 years later, it's the third most popular sport in the country.
01:04:10
Speaker
With hockey overtaking, it is the fourth in a lot of places.
01:04:15
Speaker
Hey man, I'm just going to say that NFL did a, well, I don't know if it was NFL in particular, but these networks did a smart thing because guess what? Peacock is about to make an ass load of money. Because the Chiefs are on Peacock exclusively. And you notice Swifties is about to pay up that $5.99 to watch Travis Kelsey. So you want to talk about- They have to pay for the game. It's not on the regular Peacock with ads or whatever.
01:04:42
Speaker
It's on premium. Yeah. It's only on premium. $5.99. Yeah. So like I said, this is a moneymaker forum. Oh yeah. There's going to be like watch parties of Swifties and they're going to make millions and laugh all the way to the bank. Without question. Well, I've already had Peacock because I watched WWE and the Rumble is in a couple of weeks. So like whatever.
01:05:03
Speaker
I'm not as swifty just watching Peacock for the game, okay? Any closest thoughts before we get out of here, man? It's been great time. It's been fun. Yeah, I just want to reiterate. It's been a crazy year. We've seen a lot of very odd things happen. There was a lot of stability in who was good and who wasn't. And we've seen a lot of that topple mainly because defenses have adjusted to what offenses do. So you get closer games.
01:05:27
Speaker
lends itself to more variance, which is how you get a weird year like this. I mean, Buffalo has been in the top five offensively and defensively of the non-point win-loss, other than win-loss. They were a top five team on each side of the ball, and yet they were like barely hanging on for a while. You could have missed the playoffs.
01:05:48
Speaker
could have missed the playoffs. I put hashtag Joe Flacco in several No Broken Legs podcast posts. Like that's something I never thought was going to happen.
01:06:01
Speaker
The Jacksonville Jaguars look like they were on their way to making a deep playoff run. Trevor Lawrence gets a little nicked up and they lose Christian Kirk to injury and they just fall off the face of the earth. And now we're questioning, well, maybe Doug Peterson isn't as good a coach as we thought he did. Maybe they just caught fire in Philly and everything just sort of, they just rode the wave.
01:06:20
Speaker
Yeah, so if I think this is the year that as as a better you can maybe take some more swings than you normally would because it looks like there's going to be a lot more variance and how these games play out.
Betting Strategies Amidst Playoff Chaos
01:06:33
Speaker
So if you get a feeling about something or if you think somebody's ripe like we think the Rams are, so you can bet a small amount of money on the Rams. And win a large amount. And set yourself up to win a large amount or set yourself up to be in a situation where you can bet against the Rams with your boosts and build a small parlay where now you're guaranteeing yourself a win regardless of what you do.
01:07:01
Speaker
Which is really, that's what I like to do. I like to win. I like to win money. I don't care if it's a little bit of money or if it's a ton of money. Obviously a ton of money is better than a little bit of money, but I like winning money better than I like losing money. A win is a win. Yeah. So like we were joking before the podcast, I did some hedging. So don't be afraid to hedge on your Super Bowl picks. Just make sure you make some money. Cause if that bet loses, you're going to be like, God damn it. I should have just put like $10 on team X to be the team I had a whole bunch of money on.
01:07:31
Speaker
So be smart, hedge, don't get caught up in the macho BS because that's what the casinos want you to do. They want you to make that decision based on emotion. So don't be emotional with these picks. If you like a team like the Browns, the Browns can beat anybody. They could lose to anybody in the playoffs, but they could beat anybody. If you want to put it, you want to put a little bit of money on the Browns, I don't know, they got to be like plus 2000 or plus 2,500 for the Super Bowl.
01:08:01
Speaker
Like that's, I don't think that's a crazy bet. I think that's a pretty smart futures bet in the playoffs. So look at where you can find odds and hopefully you're in the green from the regular season and take some home run swings. That Rams one sounds hot.
01:08:21
Speaker
That sounds hot. One thing. Making some money, people. Yeah, before I close at the shop, before the things that were a commonality with the season and our playoff teams, with the exception of the Browns, is that all the playoff teams, their week one starter is their playoff starter and the Steelers. So two teams, they found backup quarterbacks to ride. Even though Kitty Pickett is healthy, they're just like, nah.
01:08:53
Speaker
But they could have been another team. But minus the Browns pulling Joe Flacco off the couch, health, health at the starting quarterback position was the key to regular season success. So I think that the market for backup quarterbacks just went up. And the market for running backs goes down even further. Look at not even just the best teams, but Tampa Bay and New Orleans, Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield played the whole season.
01:09:23
Speaker
Uh, Detroit, Jordan love played the whole season. Golf played pretty much the whole season. Yep. So even those like mid-level teams still ended up doing pretty well because they had consistency of quarterback. So I think that's a really good quarterback health quarterback health. Yep, absolutely. And the only times that the Texans were getting boat race was when Stroud was out. Yeah. And he only missed what? Two games. Two. Yeah. Two approved the whole season.
01:09:49
Speaker
There's another one and Josh Allen continues to play, play full season. So Patrick Mahomes, Lamar, all of them. Yeah. Big deal. Big deal this year. Plunk the podcast before we go. No broken legs. We're on YouTube. Jimmy and I'll have our latest podcast with our picks and our best bets on Saturday.
01:10:11
Speaker
Yeah, man, make sure to check out my boys Evan and Jimmy on no broken legs available Like I said on YouTube and wherever you stream your favorite podcast This has been the DFS deli Of course your boy will be back tomorrow to break down the DFS picks because we got we got a gamble in picks We got a gamble in props and of course, we're gonna be building some lineups here tomorrow as well. So playoffs, baby Stay tuned. Don't forget to hit like subscribe