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Saratoga Late Pick 5 for Saturday, July 25th
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GQ and Eric analyze the late pick 5 races from Saratoga Race Course for Saturday, July 25th. The two analyze each race as well as discuss betting strategies.
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction
00:00:00
Speaker
Hello, and welcome to Better Betting. Here are your hosts, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill, and the ruler of the replays, Eric Rubin.
Orioles vs Red Sox Impact on Fantasy Teams
00:00:13
Speaker
Hey, and welcome to Better Betting. My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ, how be you?
00:00:24
Speaker
Eric, life's good if I stop watching my beloved Baltimore Orioles against the Boston Red Sox. um The big debacle, handed the Red Sox their 14th consecutive win in a row, ah committing four errors and giving up the lead three or four different times. But other than that...
Podcast Reboot & New Segment Introduction
00:00:47
Speaker
So let's turn our attention to horse racing. Well, one thing about that, thank you to your Orioles who screwed my fantasy team because I have a totally the starting pitcher for the Red Sox. So they got to him a little bit, so he doesn't get the win.
00:01:01
Speaker
And then somehow I just picked up because I was desperate for bullpen help. Tyler Wells. Oh yeah. yeahp flu late So i got two bad pitching performances out of the game. yeah So thank you very much. Yeah, just real quick, my sister and nephew live north of Boston. They're big Sox fans, and we're texting back and forth during the game. And so my sister says, how's the Oriole relievers? And I said, Tyler Wells is decent. He's our substitute closer now. So he comes in, gets the first two guys, and then home run. Yeah.
00:01:36
Speaker
But Gunnar finally showed up for you, right? Yeah, he's had a game, but if you think it's in far between on Gunnar, thank you. I still am ruining the fact that I drafted him over Eli Dela Cruz two years ago because while I did win my league last year, I'd have two titles and probably be in first place this year. But anyway, besides that, everything's good with that.
00:01:58
Speaker
right, good. All right. So as we're attempting to start off the reboot of this podcast, which I think it's the third episode since our reboot, we have a little segment at the beginning called The Good, The Bad, The Fugly that has to do with either last week's podcast and or anything in the horse racing industry going on.
Equibrieff App Announcement
00:02:23
Speaker
So the exciting and good news is that um the Better Betting podcast is now going to be available on this new app and website by the name of Equibrieff. That's E-Q-U-I-B-R-I-E-F.
00:02:39
Speaker
u i b r i e f And it's a new app or, like i said, website that it's kind of a one stop shopping for everything news, handicapping opinion on the horse racing industry. It's kind of a startup and they use AI to kind of summarize articles and and stuff.
00:03:02
Speaker
And so it's a ah free app to download. um This podcast, if you're listening to it now, hopefully you access the podcast via Equibrief. And um like i said, it's new. We were asked to to join. And after close consultation with Eric, we decided to give it a thumbs up. So yeah.
00:03:32
Speaker
Since you're listening, go it out, ah download the app, or if you don't have a smartphone, go to Equibreef.com, and you'll be able to find the Better Betting podcast and um share it with your friends and everything. And hopefully ah the expansion of listeners will continue for our fine broadcast.
Hawthorne Closure & Recent Horse Racing Events
00:03:56
Speaker
podcast so yeah Equibrieff is the the name of the app Equibrieff.com you'll be able to find it and it has a filter if you're very interested in going and getting notifications about when podcasts available you know you'll be able to do that so that's the good news um
00:04:18
Speaker
Bad news is we touched on it. Hawthorne, all of Illinois will no longer have horse racing. And the other bad news is that suddenly everybody, all the track workers who lived on the grounds, they were in um peril of kind of being evicted to get out because the new owner wanted to move on with their project, but I think they have a reprieve until November 1st. So hopefully all those workers will be able between now and November 1st, find work elsewhere at other tracks, trainers, or wherever the trainers they work for <unk> end up. So let's hope ah there's a silver lining behind Hawthorne closing.
00:05:07
Speaker
The fugly of our good, bad, and fugly was last week we went through Saturday at Saratoga late pick five, and two of the three races came off the turf, so it kind of washed washed away any of our opinions, even though by default, we'll take credit by saying the one horse in race 12, who was 31 morning line, went off at 15 to one and won.
00:05:34
Speaker
We'll break our arms and pat ourselves on the back for mentioning that horse as as a potential winner since we also said whoever wins that race is going to lose their best friend, meaning the mating
Forming Independent Betting Opinions
00:05:48
Speaker
ranks. So the good, bad, and fugly for this week. Eric, do you have anything to add or a expand upon?
00:06:00
Speaker
Nope. Okay. Sounds good. we are... Recording on Tuesday because someone on this podcast is going to Saratoga tomorrow, Wednesday, and it's just too – don't want to hamper his his good time on track at Saratoga with having to record this podcast. so We're going a day earlier, which means there is no official morning line. So apologies to David Aragona. We've kind of are guessing at who we believe will be the morning line favorite. But you know what?
00:06:38
Speaker
ah I encourage everyone to handicap your races before the morning line comes out. Why you why should you be bothered with Having your opinion skewed by someone else's opinion, regardless of whether it it is the right opinion on what the final odds will be.
00:07:02
Speaker
As we all know, ah the favorite wins 25% of the time, mainly. And so When you're handicapping, do you really want to be on the favorite? Do you want to ah look and say, oh, I really like this horse, but oh, he's ate the one. you know am I wrong in my opinion? No.
00:07:23
Speaker
you know You should handicap without knowing the the morning line odds and stick with your opinion. Your opinion is as good as anyone else's. Plus, it's your money, right?
00:07:35
Speaker
Why would you ask someone else's opinion and bet your own money. So have faith in your own handicapping ability or faith in us trying to lead you to look at certain things in races.
00:07:50
Speaker
Eric, do you have any opinion on morning line handicapping with or without? Eric Leffler Well, first of all, most morning lines are not very accurate, so they don't really help anyway. New York is obviously an exception. He does a great job.
00:08:05
Speaker
I like having them only because when I'm handicapping, I have the betting in mind want know who's the favorite, who's the second favorite, or generally who's going to be bet.
00:08:17
Speaker
And therefore I can kind of make my opinions based on that. When I don't have the morning lines, I kind of make my own or just assume. and I mean, I'm generally right as far as who's going to be the favorite or co-favorites, not perfect, but I just like it in New York having it. If it's not New York, I don't really care. Your boy Keith Fusel used to do a good job at Laurel in Maryland. So that was nice to have, but you know Now, so many morning lines are so bad that it just doesn't really affect me too much.
00:08:46
Speaker
Okay.
Saratoga Racing Predictions
00:08:47
Speaker
Sounds good. So with that in mind, as usual, at least so far with the reboot, episode three of the podcast, we're staying at Saratoga for Saturday, going over the races, the late pick five races, which are race eight through 12 Saturday at Saratoga.
00:09:08
Speaker
And it kicks off race eight, kicks off with a one and one 16th mile turf event, Optional claimers, $100,000, non-winners of one other than.
00:09:21
Speaker
and we have a field of 12 entered for the turf, one MTO. maybe Eric and I can have a little fun in trying to guess who we believe the morning line favorite will be and just leave it at that, have you know bet a beer or something on hoot who matches with Mr. Aragona, best.
00:09:45
Speaker
I came up with number 12, Cocoa Motion, was the beaten favorite in the Florida Oaks last time. i see her as the nine to five morning line.
00:09:56
Speaker
Do you concur or do you say, okay, o let me bet somebody else? um How much were you drinking when you were doing this? That's my one question. Were like seven drinks in when you said shit? Sure.
00:10:15
Speaker
All right, well, i would be surprised, hey if she's a favorite. a let let's let's just get how it Let's get um documented with all this, okay? so So next week, one of us can have go on their face and calling the other out.
00:10:35
Speaker
uh we're not going to brush everything know we're not going to be make bold statements and then all of a sudden for having amnesia the next week yeah no no amnesia here because i i am documented first of all it's one thing to say the horse to be the favorite i don't agree with that but that's one thing to say but nine to five where did you come up with that Um, wow. Uh, every morning when I sit down in the bathroom after I have my coffee kicking in.
00:11:08
Speaker
Thank you for that vision. ah Anyway, i believe the nine Bella Nose, Brad Cox, Ired Ortiz will be the favorite. I have heard seven to two morning line on my morning line for it. By the time people listen this, the morning line will most likely be out. So we might not have to spend an hour arguing because they're going to know the answer by then.
00:11:30
Speaker
but yeah, I think the nine Bella Nose will be the morning line favorite.
Betting Strategies Analysis
00:11:33
Speaker
Okay. Or the favorite. Is that your opinion for the morning line or is that your opinion for who you like in the race? It's obviously separate. They they do not rely on one another. Right. Well, I think the nine Bellinodes is the most likely winner. There's a horse who last year in the Chelsea Flowers or Flower, and know there's more than one Flower in that race.
00:11:58
Speaker
But she ran a really strong race there. She came in second, was squeezed early all the way back to last, did save ground, but then had a wait on the second turn and really was finishing well. In her last race, it was fine, came in second at this level, probably needed to race off the layoff.
00:12:17
Speaker
My main concern about Bella Nose is she doesn't really have much speed. And while there is a projected fast pace, which should help her, it is New York, especially New york turf racing.
00:12:29
Speaker
And a fast pace in New York turf racing comes about like once every blue moon. So we'll see what happens. But I do think the nine is most likely winner. Do I want him better at that price? I'm not sure. But that would be my most likely winner.
00:12:43
Speaker
could have had her at five to one last time when she ran second. Yeah, but last time was off the layoff. And I know Cox, I didn't look up the numbers. I'm sure Brad Cox is really good off the layoff. I know our friend Tom likes Cox a lot. There's nothing wrong with that. But Vela knows he's probably needed that race. So I think that she probably steps forward off of that. And, again, it's the most likely winner. it doesn't mean she's a great bet at around 7-2. Okay. Okay.
00:13:12
Speaker
so um So how would you bet this race if if if you were betting? if if you were you know Forget about the pick five right now, if you were doing vertical.
00:13:25
Speaker
Well, there are two other horses that interest me a little bit that I'll briefly talk about. One is the four soloists. I'm curious. do you Did you make a morning line you set for this race? No, do I just predicted the bad morning line.
00:13:38
Speaker
Yeah.
00:13:42
Speaker
admitting the problem because I'm sorry, the bad morning line favorite. Oh, That's what I meant. ah So the fourth soloist. This horse, yeah, Ren, Indiana, two back, but...
00:13:53
Speaker
I feel like that was against horses that were somewhat similar to this field here. I don't think it was much weaker. It was a a stakes race for 150K there. And the horse had a three-wide trip around the track, so I would upgrade that performance. was a second off a layoff. And then the last time, they sent her Delaware for a stakes race, and the race got washed off, as you can see. And I thought the horse ran pretty well considering – She's not a dirt horse. um She dueled the second favorite. She was bet like she was a dirt horse, but she dueled the second favorite to fourth. So she competed on a a pretty hot pace there. You can see sometimes the times are deceiving, but I think that time shows you that the pace was pretty hot. I don't care what the buyer speed figure or whatever numbers you have. I don't really care what the number is. I would upgrade it anyway based on the fact that she dueled.
00:14:40
Speaker
She's getting her best jockey that she's either ever had or at least since Brian Hernandez rode her. And I think Soloist is a major player here. have her about 5 to 1 on the morning line or 6 to 1 on the morning line. So um at that price, I'm very interested Soloist. And one more horse I want to mention.
00:14:55
Speaker
We might mention some others, but I'll throw it back to you. the six Vekoma view. This isn't worse, so I've upgraded the last couple of races. She ran a Gulfstream two back in the, I believe the Santa Bella Island.
00:15:06
Speaker
She saved ground, but got shuffled on the back stretch um and onto the second turn. So I thought she ran better than it looks there because she got shuffled. You can see back to like seventh, basically towards the back and then, you know, made up a little ground. And the last time coming off a brief layoff, not much of one, I guess, but she was running at Penn National in the Penn Oaks. yeah i don't know how strong the race was. She was a five to two I get second choice. i didn't write that down, but 5-2. She was a pretty short price.
00:15:33
Speaker
She got checked out really bad late on the back stretch. She was in a great position. looked like a perfect trip-saving ground. Got checked out terribly and then just tried to come back, but she just couldn't. and She was running against horses that are probably better than these in that race. so I think the 6 is a significant player here. i have earn put her 8-1. Hopefully, that's not a ah wrong morning line odds, but So those are the horses that think are like the major players that want to play around with the four.
00:16:00
Speaker
Soloist, the six, Vekoma View, and perhaps the nine, Bellin Nose. There are a couple more I want to mention because they will take money and they affect the pace and they're major players. bow I'll throw it back to you so I don't talk the whole time.
00:16:11
Speaker
Okay. Well, all right. So um would you say that the 12 would be 10 1 warning line? I have like eight to one. Maybe I'm a little high. i just, I just want to document that as well. And, and I'm not totally insane. I did mark down that Bella knows would be the morning line. Second choice. So, you know, I'm an intriguing one, i believe is the five horse page. Turner never been on the turf in her five starts. ah
00:16:44
Speaker
Last time, um, you know, was her worst finish fourth by five. She comes back. She is turf bread and comes back with Lasix on.
00:17:00
Speaker
She's been well backed in nearly all of her starts. So, I'm not sure exactly what kind of price you're going to get on her. I would have to say at least six to one on Paige Turner being a first time on turf.
00:17:16
Speaker
che Sherry DeVoe only goes 13% with her firsters on the grass, but 23% first at a root. So that's one that would intrigue me underneath the five-page Turner. um Another interesting thing I know a lot of the talking heads just like to spew percentages and facts and whatever. But the 10 people
Horse Performance Predictions
00:17:43
Speaker
watching with Katie Davis um was beaten favorite. That was in at the Delaware on the slop. Obviously, this is a huge step up here. But trainer Tom Proctor is five for nine with beaten favorites. So maybe he'll be five for 10 after this race.
00:18:06
Speaker
So that's it. If you want to, if you do want to add a few more. Yeah. Well, I have that one, the 10 people watching It's 30 to one on my morning line, longest shot on the board. So right yeah entirely but so I'm not going to make fun of you for suggesting a 30 to one here, but I'm not suggesting I'm just putting out the facts.
00:18:23
Speaker
and And the other thing, the other two I want to mention, and thank you for that. Bourbon Betty is obviously a major player here, if nothing else, for a pace standpoint. At 20 to 1, tried to wire the field last time. And ran really, I mean, had an easy lead, but ran a really strong or solid pace, fast pace.
00:18:41
Speaker
And I shouldn't have looked at the time form figures because that totally threw off my confidence this race. But she got 117, which towers over the field in her last race. That's the one. And the eight new roads coming out of the same race got 111, which also kind of towers over this field. They were by far the two best time form figures here. So that kind of scares me a little bit. I didn't love Burbing Betty because I thought she, even though she ran fast to get the time, I thought she had a fairly easy lead. And the eight who broke her maiden nicely ran pretty well to break her maiden and a nice speed figure. I just, last time you rose, this is the eight. Like, I guess you chased a fairly hot pace. You can argue and and faded, but I didn't love it. The thing is, I think new roles will be a big price on this occasion. have at 12 to one or 10 to one ish. So I think new roles might be worth something at the eight. So as far as betting the race,
00:19:34
Speaker
Again, I usually like to look at the favorite and see, do I want to bet the favorite or against the favorite? In this case, there's no heavy favorite I want to think. I have the nine Bella Nodes who I like, but I don't love. And I said the four, six for my other horses here who are decent prices, but not not like huge prices. So I know growing up when I was taught the horses, it was almost like, and I think some people still bet like this, oh, i'll pick three horses and box for three horses in Xacta. If you want to bet a triple, box them in a triple. maybe pick one of them to win. And and that's how I was taught about the races. And it took me a long time to realize, hey, I'm losing money doing that. That's not a great approach, generally speaking. So I'm usually not a fan of just boxing three horses. Listen, there are times it makes sense, but in this case, that's not something I would probably love to do. So vertically, it really depends on the price.
00:20:26
Speaker
Out of those horses, four, six, nine, whoever the biggest price is, I would key that horse. So I guess the six, according to me, is the biggest price. That's the one I pick. But if it's the four, the nine, whoever the biggest price is, I would key them mostly with the other two. So let's say it is a six.
00:20:41
Speaker
That's the biggest price for Coma View out of those. So I do six with four, nine. And I would also throw in the eight new rows if she's not too short.
00:20:51
Speaker
And if the 12 nine five or close to it, I would not use a 12. But if the 12 is... six, eight to one, 10 to one range, then yes, I would throw in the 12. So I do something like six with four, nine, eight, 12 and exact and triple box or key box. And then I narrowed down. I'd have more with the six with the four, nine in those things as well. And if I ah got a good price, I could bet win on that six. And again, it's all price dependent. Four, six, nine. I'm just going for the biggest price. I'm not like, yes. Do I think the nine's a little better than those other two? It's like four to one.
00:21:28
Speaker
i If you give me four to one or more on the 12, I'm taking it. But isn't it curious? We've mentioned more than half the field in here, but yet um we have a Chad Brown, Claravich-owned Flavian Pratt having the mount on undefeated one-for-one.
00:21:51
Speaker
and We didn't mention him. What are your thoughts on that one? Second stringer since he won at Monmouth? ah Yeah, no, I mean, I don't mind that for Chad, but it's probably somewhat true, but I don't mind that. I've seen him come to Saratoga from Monmouth and win all the time.
00:22:06
Speaker
um I know a lot of people say, oh if they're training a mom in first time, don't bet them or something like that. But I don't i've seen them win too and generally at a bigger price. Went fine. i mean, I thought it had a pretty good setup. did This is the two crossover capital. Did get off to a slightly slow start and then got bumped, but mostly saved ground. was a little too wide maybe the second turn. I it got a good setup.
00:22:26
Speaker
So much to the best, but being – a relatively weak field compared to this. And I don't know. i Like I can see the horse doing fine. And this is where you, like you can't be married to your opinion too much. Like I like the nine the most. I keep saying that.
00:22:41
Speaker
I like the nine the most, but I'm not so smart. And you got everyone, like you have to have that opinion in a way, like almost some modesty, if you will. Like, i'm not so smart that I'm so sure that horse is going to win and I'm taking five to two on that horse. And if Chad Brown is 12-1 or 15-1, like, I'm sticking with the 5-2. You have to be able to adjust. Maybe if that's the case, yeah, I'd like the 2 at that price. But I expect the 2 to be about 8-1, I wrote down. And for the most part, it's not for me unless she drifts really high and I want to throw her in. But generally speaking, that would be against.
00:23:11
Speaker
All right. So I think we've beaten race eight, to the first leg of the pick five on Saturday at Saratoga into
Saratoga Betting Strategy Recap
00:23:20
Speaker
the ground. We'll move on to race nine, second leg, which is the grade two, upper G Vanderbilt ah for four year olds and up field up eight is due to go to the post.
00:23:35
Speaker
And, uh, Looks like a really good race as far as betting race. don't see one like heavy favorite in here. But ah if I had to pick a morning line favorite, um you got to go with the eight built. ah I'd say about two to one morning in line.
00:23:58
Speaker
Next ah close second of five to two, the one Damon's Mound. Eric, what's your opinion on who the Morning Line favorite should be? Well, you're not as drunk as you were for the last one. oh You still grew up and made this one. ah I do have Demon's Mountain a second choice at 5-2. I think Vilt's a little shorter than you. I put Vilt at 7-5. Maybe I'm a little short. but okay And to me, this is not that competitive a race. I think Vilt's going win.
00:24:27
Speaker
The problem is, Bilt is going to be a heavy favorite and probably singled in the pick five more so than any other horse in this sequence, partially because it is a tough sequence. There's lot of, on paper, it looked like wide open races without heavy favorites. So in a pick five, if you're...
00:24:44
Speaker
Betting built, you're just admitting that you're taking the single that everyone's taking. Now, for me, if I bet to pick five, i just think this horse is going to win the race. Got speed, make his own trip. He's outside. So if no one goes, he can go. If they go, Irak can sit off, won't get boxed in. So I just think built is going to win this race. So I'm just singling it.
00:25:05
Speaker
The only way i would bet the race vertically is if I didn't like the second or third choice. And I'm okay betting against Damon's mound. Not that Damon's mound is no good. I mean, he's got nice speed figures and all that, but I'm okay betting against Damon's mound. Yeah, it was much the best last time. It was against weaker though. The horse is a nice horse.
00:25:25
Speaker
Last time in the grade three, won the race in the bold ruler. three wide ran down to five to shot ran really well in that race so i have no problem with mount uh damon's mount but again how much better is he than the rest of the field i don't know i'm willing to you know not take five to two on that to find out but i'm on built here again probably not been in the race if i did like i said it would be built over some prices but i don't think i like it enough to bet it and i'm just going to single with everyone else probably in the pick five so So you think Bilt gets the lead at the gate over Damon's mound and or the four just beat the odds?
00:26:03
Speaker
I think Bilt can get the lead if he wants. I don't think he will, but I think he can if he wants. So what I'm saying is if I read sense of slow pace, he's like, I'm on the best horse. I'm just going to But the fact that he's on the outside kind of gives him that advantage too, that he can just kind of sit off of.
00:26:19
Speaker
whatever pace developed. So if the one and or the four go, he can sit third, he can sit second. um I just, I just think the horse kind of stands out here. Maybe I'm over analyzing it. Last time he stumbled at the start and the winner was a three to one shot Harrisburg and he had an easy lead and wired the field and and this horse tried to run him down. So I thought this horse is, you know, to me, Bill just stands out. Maybe maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm thinking he's,
00:26:45
Speaker
better than he is and the others aren't as good as they are. i mean, he's never been to Saratoga graveyard of favorites. I would never, i would never fault someone for trying to beat a favorite. I'm always looking to try and beat the favorite, but in this case, I just personally think it's a fool's errand, so I'm not going to try.
00:27:00
Speaker
Well, I think you'll be singing a different tune if the eight hymn, play on words, singing a different tune, hymn, H-Y-M-N, gets the job done. Horses going for four in a row.
00:27:15
Speaker
Yeah, he's been running. ran at Laurel, down at Oak Lawn. I know it's sacrilegious to pick any horse that's shipping into Saratoga and hasn't been running there.
00:27:26
Speaker
But we'll have pace set up if indeed there's you know a hot pace with Bilt and the other two that I mentioned. And ah the brisnet speed figures continue to climb without any regression. So um i would guess that Eric, you put on him at probably about five to one or more. I'll take that on the eight horse him.
00:27:55
Speaker
Well, the the six sorry the six horse him. Sorry. Yeah, i don't um I don't disagree with just about anything you said. i have him at 6-1, but could see 5-1 if Bilt maybe is as short as I thought. Hort is improving maybe and has run well. ah Last race, him got a good trip and was much the best.
00:28:17
Speaker
Running weird in the stretch, I don't know what to make of that. His head was like cocked sideways the whole stretch. It's a little awkward, but I don't know what to make of that. um I don't think he did that before, but I could be wrong. make note of that in his other races, so I'm not sure about that. But if I was betting the race, that's the kind of horse I would throw in to try and beat Damon's mound for second, basically. um One of the horses, I don't want spend too much time in a race where I don't really...
00:28:40
Speaker
I think the favorite's going lose, and it's not biggest field. um The two crazy Mason is a horse just to talk about because it is a horse who's going to be or take some money here. He's been knocking heads against tougher, really, his whole career. They've been shipping him around.
00:28:54
Speaker
Crazy Mason just has no early speed, comes with a rush late, six furlongs. Maybe that's a little short for the horse, but I don't, I don't necessarily think so. I think the horse, um you know, has a chance. The only thing is it's going to be like nine to two range there, Crazy Mason. And i don't know if I want to take a deep closer going maybe too short and race it out. And there's a ton of pace on. So Crazy Mason, I can see winning this race, just class alone.
00:29:21
Speaker
But for the most part, I would probably leave against Crazy Mason here. Okay. Sounds good. ah Moving on to Lake 3, which is race 10 on Saturday at Saratoga, the 1 1⁄8 mile coaching club, America Oaks.
00:29:40
Speaker
For three-year-old fillies featuring the Kentucky Oaks winner, the six-horse, always a runner, and the acorn winner, number one, counting stars, along with number eight, Zaney, who was the post-time favorite, very lukewarm five-to-one post-time favorite in the Kentucky Oaks.
00:30:01
Speaker
i'm Probably thinking everybody thinks it's just a a match race or a rubber match between... counting stars and always a runner. The big question is who gets the nod as morning line favorite. I am going to jump in and say,
00:30:19
Speaker
New York betters are hardheaded and they believe in Chad and always the runner will come back and avenge the defeat from counting stars. So i' I'm going to say what, nine to five, two to one on the two of them.
00:30:38
Speaker
What's your thought? Well, first of all, I don't think it's a – I know what you're saying about the, quote, two horse. That's how it's going to be billed. you know Maybe, I guess. but And that's true. That's like the headline, I guess. you Right.
00:30:49
Speaker
But I do think there's at least one other horse going to take ah a ton of money and not be much different than them in the odds, but we'll get to that in a second. um I have counting starters and one two to one, and I have always a run of the six at five to two.
00:31:01
Speaker
um so close i guess similar you need a little more always a runner i just understand counting stars first of all two back in uh kentucky oaks you can argue i don't want to counting stars ran better than always a runner i don't think she necessarily ran better but she didn't have an ideal trip she was close to a hot pace not necessarily stuck behind horses but you know behind horses and maybe no daylight, and i thought she ran better than it looked, counting stars two back, and um i actually liked her last time, which was good, and always a runner, just got a great setup in the Kentucky Oaks, it was a fast pace and set up her late kick, so now we go to the Acorn, the last time they ran together, and counting stars, it was a small field, but competitive field, counting stars was, what, nine to two, and always a runner was four to five, and
00:31:48
Speaker
Honestly, I know always a runner was two to three wide maybe in the race, but, and, um, counting stars had a pretty good trip, but I just thought counting stars was better. And at no point to that name counting stars was losing that race. It looked like, and, uh, I just think she might be the better horse at this point. Um, maybe I'm wrong. So we'll see, but I would, I would say counting stars, not just on the morning line slightly favored, but I definitely prefer that horse to always a runner.
00:32:16
Speaker
But the horse that you think could have upset potential is the three? i think if youre i think a few have upset potential. The one that was going to be a short price um is a seven directive. You talk about Chad Brown. Well, there's Chad Brown.
00:32:33
Speaker
And you know there is a rule that when you have a trainer who has more than one horse in the race, you have to like the longer shot. That's not my rule. Well, it is my rule, but you have to do it. because nine times out of 10, the longer shot wins.
00:32:46
Speaker
But um I'm kidding, but I'm not kidding about that, actually. The second directive, i think directive is going about seven to two in this race, ah maybe even three to one. weren Maybe I'm way off with that. I don't know. It could be a controversial take. But this is obviously stepping up in in class of seven directive. Broke her maiden in the slop very easily. had a pretty easy lead, although ran a pretty quick pace, I guess. But just kind of dominated that field. And then went into the first level allowance ranks. Went a mile and a, so they stretched the horse out. Gunrunner.
00:33:18
Speaker
and the horse ran really well stocked in 11 to one well third so it wasn't like you know the race fell apart right and like that it was probably even paced didn't favor of closer or speed it wasn't fast paced but i don't think it necessarily uh favored closers per se it was a fast track that day at saratoga if you remember speed played pretty well but this horse is i mean want dominated one by one length, but was a very strong finishing that race. And I thought visually was pretty impressive. Stepping up in class, definitely. I'm always a runner. You have counting stars, the six and the one respectively, or match chance against three in one company. You have a couple others that we'll get into coming out of some great stakes races, but I think that horse has a pretty big shot here. I would just be worried about taking too short a price on the seven directive, but that's the horse that I think has a a big shot here.
00:34:03
Speaker
I mean, She might be the one who takes the lead early lead. I think Zaney with blinkers on might show more early speed than she did when she ran the Kentucky Oaks.
00:34:19
Speaker
um I agree with you. yeah there's a number of fillies in here that can win the race. I'm intrigued by by the three-horse La Roscassi, maybe. Is that how you pronounce it?
00:34:35
Speaker
I mean, two huge brisnet numbers in both her starts. Axel Concepcion comes to town with the will ah Will Walden.
00:34:49
Speaker
You know, they, they paid three quarters of million for as a yearling purchase, probably a late bloomer who knows you could step up big time, uh, in this one.
00:35:00
Speaker
Well, I actually like the same horse there. So we yeah we often don't agree. In this one, we do agree. um First of all, there is no pace. Well, not no, but there's not a ton of pace in this race, which also, I think, hurts the six, always a runner. And that horse can show a little bit of pace. It's going to have to come from the clouds, six, always a runner. But I think the lack of pace kind of hurts here. Always a runner, if there is a lack of pace, more so and than the others. But yeah, the three lost Russ Cossie. William Walden is red hot everywhere. You you mentioned...
00:35:30
Speaker
Axel Concepcion comes to town. You say it like it's a good thing. i You know, obviously. Wait a minute. guarantee you're going to fight. Ronnie Franklin coming to to ride Spectacular Pit. For those who were not born, and which is probably everyone who listens to this podcast, I was the only one who could witness it.
00:35:53
Speaker
I'm sorry. i I didn't mean interrupt. But, yeah, it's I'm not saying, it oh the the great Axel Concepcion comes in to to ride. I'm just saying, you know. Will Walden could have had his pick of anybody to to ride the horse, right?
00:36:11
Speaker
I don't know. anyone I mean, generally, he probably has. But, yeah, in general. Is the sixth best rider in New York, Jockey Colony riding? We're talking about Junior Alvarado.
00:36:23
Speaker
Yeah, I believe so. Shout out to Big Dave. think he's available. But – The good thing about Axel coming into town is you'll probably get a decent, a good price on this horse. You know, if you put I-Ret on the horse, you're you're going from 10 to 1 to 6 to 1 right there. So I think the 3 will be about 10 to 1. At that price, I want to take a shot. Horse ran 7 Furlong's first time, Broker Maiden, and then comes back in the, I can't even, I can't read, is that the Monomoy Girl? They have a race named at the Monomoy Girl are already?
00:36:52
Speaker
Thank you. Very good. So ah in that race on June 13th at Churchill, three last Rascasi, I thought that race had a pretty fast pace and favored closers, yet she was right up on the lead. She handled it easily. i was very impressed with that race. I know this is a big step up in class, but there's a horse who is either going to be on the lead or close to it. I think the distance will be her friend. So I'm going to – I'll talk about betting because this is like the first race I'm a little excited to bet in this sequence. So going to bet the three here. lost Ross Cosi as my main horse. Now, I i do want to mention – you mentioned Zany a little bit.
00:37:30
Speaker
Zany is a horse that's coming out of the Kentucky Oaks, was actually favored at I think, 5-1. That's how wide open the Oaks was viewed, but was favored in the Oaks at 5-1. A horse who ran okay. Well, I shouldn't say I don't think she ran great in Oaks. I know it's a tough race. I thought she had a really good setup.
00:37:47
Speaker
I didn't find any excuse other than it's a tough race. They took some time off. They're trying blinkers. To me, there's a horse that developed early that ran well and just kind of, i don't know, plateaued but has not necessarily gotten better. Now, I could be wrong. And if you want Zaney, especially in about – I have her at 5-1-ish range.
00:38:06
Speaker
So if you want Zaney at 5-1 or 6-1, have no problem with it if you think that. and It's not for me, though, but um I can see how you can think that to upset the upper card because she does have the back class and the ability she's shown to do that. I just don't think it's goingnna happen Saturday.
00:38:23
Speaker
Well, you see the loyalty that Irad has to Pletcher and Rapoli. jumps off of Zany to ride counting stars for the second time for Cassie. Yeah. I mean, usually, you know me, I don't like to look at riders and I joke with the people the horse place that i hang out with, uh, about when we bet, cause they'll point that out and I'll make fun of them. And then anytime I see a rider switch, um,
00:38:45
Speaker
And the horse that he left won, I always pointed out to everyone because I really don't think we can use that because we don't really know what goes on. Maybe Zany was entered late. We we have no idea. i wasn't targeting here. In this case, you're probably right, though. I bet Ira's like, I'm not leaving Counting Stars because she might be the best three-year-old filly in the country, and I'm not getting off of this horse. so um But anyway, so I just want to touch upon Zany. I mean, there anyone else you to touch upon? Otherwise, I do want to get into how I bet the race, but if you want to say anything else before I do that.
00:39:11
Speaker
No, I'm good. Go ahead. All right. So I'm going to key the three last Ross Cosi here. That's going to be a way I'm going to bet this race. So I'm going to need her to finish in the top two or three, preferably win. And I'm going to play against always a runner who's going a short price. So when I'm betting, I always want to bet against a short price, ah whether it's a favorite or the second favorite. In this case, it's the cold favorite, whatever you want to call it. So I am going to key the three and I'm going to try and get the one and the seven with her. Those going to my two keys. Now, both of those, the one counting stars and the seven directive are not really big prices. So I'm not going box one, three, seven, just because it comes in one, seven or seven, one. I'll probably like break even. So if you want that, that's fine, but I'd rather use that money to try and hit something a little bigger. So I'll bet three with the one seven in exactos and triples. And I might throw in a few other horses with the three in like triples and possibly exactos. So for example,
00:40:10
Speaker
I'll do three with one seven, but I might do three. I'll also throw in the five measure and the nine Nikon. I don't really want to spend a long time talking about those horses because we're going long here, but I think those horses outside chances here. It's not like they're terrible horses. The five stepping up in class, but I thought ran fine last time. The nine Nikon. ran okay or better than it looks I thought last time and against always a runner tough field so I think that horse might have improved with some time off I don't love the nine I don't love the five but I would throw them in so long story short three with one five seven nine so three with one five seven nine triple key box I do exact the key boxes but I'd have more money
00:40:53
Speaker
on the three with the one seven. And if it's anywhere near 10 to one, I take a shot in the three last rest cost to win. I think counting stars is gonna be really tough. I think she's really good. The problem is you just don't get a price and the seven is little price dependent too. If the seven drifts up higher than three to one, like I think, then that's a horse away. Might contemplate King also. She's like five to one. I just don't see that. So for what the prices, I assume I'm going keep the three last rest cost. And in a pick five,
00:41:22
Speaker
I'm probably, if I bet it, going to go a little deep here, just trying to be always a runner. So I'll use the one counting stars, the three Las Rascasi, the seven directive. I might just go three deep, but it's a chance I throw in the five measure, the nine Nikon, like I mentioned. And Just to be always a runner. I see David Ergonne comes out with a morning line and always a runner is like nine to five. I don't think going happen, but eight five, nine to five, because he knows what he's doing. I might even you know go deeper if I have to. If always a runner is like three to one morning line, then I might just stick with one, three, seven and try and get through All right. Anyway.
00:41:56
Speaker
aye Sounds good. and And you read my mind because I was going to say this might
Pick Five Betting Strategies
00:42:01
Speaker
be premature, but you know how would you would you wouldn't necessarily single the three in your pick five since you had kind of alluded to singling built in the second leg. So you already explained that, so we don't have to build up to the point. I mean, I like the three. I want to take a bet at 10-to-1 because i think there's value, but she's probably like the fourth most likely winner or fifth most likely winner in the race. So it's kind of worse. I don't mind singling the price. I've singled 20-to-1 shots in pick fives, but this is not one I'm looking singling a pick five um because I don't love the horse. I just think she has better-than-odd shot and can run well and maybe can win this race, and I'm willing to take 10-to-1-ish, 8-to-1-ish.
00:42:41
Speaker
Okay. Sounds good. Let's move on to leg four of the late pick five on Saturday at Saratoga, which is race 11, a five and a half furlong turf event for fillies and mares, state bred.
00:43:00
Speaker
105,000 non-winners are one other than. 14 have been entered, a max of 12 will go to the starting gate. And ah we had a little fun before we started recording, talking about who we thought would be the morning line favorite. ah And somehow we both came up with the same horse.
00:43:22
Speaker
Number 12, Fairy Godmother. I said four to one. i think, Eric, you said five to two. um Is that your pick or just how you think the betting public will see this race?
00:43:38
Speaker
No, you know what? The 12 is tough for me, Fairy Godmother, because it's all price dependent like most bets should be. This is a horse who, two back, won a mating claimer, New York bred mating claimer. And there's a New York bred first level allowance.
00:43:51
Speaker
And she put up a huge speed figure. then came back in an allowance at the same level that we're at now. Here's my problem. On May 23rd, that year's speed figure, the runner-up who got a 67 buyer, because this horse, the 12th Ferry Godmother, dominated the race 1x6. So the runner-up got a 67, even though Ferry Godmother got an 85. Came back on to run a 42.
00:44:14
Speaker
I believe it might have been against Maiden Specialty, so stepping up in class, but no other excuse evident. and i I just think that figure might be inflated slightly, but maybe not. And again, I'm not like married to speed figures here. a horse can run ah a fast time and earn it and not repeat it. So I probably bet against, I don't remember, but I probably bet against Fairy Godmother definitely the next time at four to one.
00:44:37
Speaker
Here's the issue. She got squeezed so badly at the start. I mean, it was ridiculous, like eight or 10 months back. It was awful and still made a nice little run, never threatened, but still made up a lot of ground and ran a good race. So based on the last race, I thought she ran really well.
00:44:52
Speaker
Based on the race before that, I would bet against her. So if I can ignore the last race because of the trouble, which I definitely can, now I'm betting her off of that big speed figure. So I don't know. It really depends what the betters do here. Unfortunately, pick five, you might not know. But like I said, in New York, you have the advantage of having a really solid morning line. So you get an idea how the betters will play. In five to two, I want no part of the 12. And five to one, I'm including the 12. So if that makes any sense. there are a couple more, though, I i would like to bet. and There's another horse who i or two that I would like to talk about to bet. But go ahead. I'll throw it back to you first. Okay. So um the the one that I like is...
00:45:31
Speaker
kind of what was similar to what Fairy Godmother came ah back in her last race, is the three. Tuttletown comes off of dropping down for a tag in order break her maiden.
00:45:49
Speaker
Comes back here. First, her... ah Tries were good. The Brisnet numbers came back good enough that a repeat of her maiden win last time out will do it here. She's always been well-backed, even though now she's in a new barn. Mike Maselli, small barn, 11 for 50, 22% on the year, 0 for 2 at Saratoga so far. But I just –
00:46:22
Speaker
think ah there's a lot of speed in here based on my pace projections. I see half of the field as being in speed. Now, there there's a speed horse that the 11 first time on turf.
00:46:36
Speaker
Dirt speed does not always translate to turf speed. so But I think there will be an adequate pace that will set up for ah one coming off the pace.
00:46:48
Speaker
So I do like the three, Tuttle Town, ah and also my our projected morning line favorite, Fairy Godmother, for the reasons that Eric gave. um They're the only two that I would want to go far on. And i commend you that the first three legs you had, read as the morning line favorite, and I knew i you needed to Go seek help if you're going to make I-Rad the two-horse, Sinead the favorite.
00:47:26
Speaker
Because he went off twenty five to one at the same level last time and kind of ran like 25-1. Well, not so fast. we We'll get back to it. um I have them at 12 to 1.
00:47:39
Speaker
First of all, we're going to sit down and have a an intervention, GQ. All right. i Next time I'm with you, I don't know. We've seen each other a lot recently, but we might not see each other. don't know. Delaware? don't know. Delaware? Maybe Big T or Delaware. Yeah, probably Big T or Delaware. Maybe in August I'll take a ride down. But Next time I'm with you, I'm going to tie you to a chair, and I'm going to show you replays of New York turf races, and I'm going to show you 50 different races, and I want you to point out which ones have fast paces because it does not happen. So if you're relying on a fast pace in a New York turf race, then save your money. But I don't – listen, I'm not going to knock a price. you know
00:48:21
Speaker
So there's 21 and change on the turf or aberrations? It's because the turf plays lightning quick sometimes, and I don't know if there's a run-up on these five and a half, but my point is you're not going to have two or three horses dueling on the lead ever, so that's what I mean, regardless of your time. But anyway, the three, I think this is a horse we talked about before.
00:48:42
Speaker
I don't Tutholtown? Well, you thought the horse was going to take money, and I said this is one of the longer prides on the board. So we had a major disagreement. Tell me if I'm putting words your mouth. Listen, I don't want to knock a price. If that horse wins, i then I don't know anything about horse racing here. I shouldn't say that because she'll win.
00:48:59
Speaker
But be careful what you say. i know. I can't. I mean, that's worth this well let's say this right. I mean, you got 11 others that will have something to say about it. So the main thing is, I mean, stepping up in class from a main claimer into an last.
00:49:15
Speaker
if If you look back at it, her only other turf try, which was her second time out off of a layoff, you know, Ran second by a head with seven wide at the quarter, off a bit slow. Yeah, Pratt was on her.
00:49:33
Speaker
I mean, that wasn't a horrible try against a state-bred mate. The speed figures put her right there, so it's fine. over-exaggerating how much I don't like her, but I just – I mean, hope she takes lot of money because I don't have – Against a 12 to one shot, which I think she will be, that doesn't really do much for me. So whatever you want to bet her fine, you know, she's a lot shorter then that helps me because betting answer will help. But if you like, I, one thing I'm reluctant to do on this podcast. And one reason I'm reluctant to even do it is I don't want to talk people off horses ever. So I probably shouldn't said anything. It was just because you like her.
00:50:05
Speaker
So it you're not talking people off of it. Everybody has an opinion and you state your opinion, why or why, why you like or why you don't like a horse. And and it's for everyone who listens to decide on whether they agree with that opinion.
00:50:22
Speaker
All right. thank you. And here's the the two words I want to touch. Well, I want to touch on three really, but two horses specifically, first of all, the one who I have at a fairly short price, even though she's coming off a maiden win, but at least it was made in special weight. That's the four moonlight ready. Now she was 37 and one off of a year and a half layoff last time, but I thought the horse ran really, really well. And I don't think this is a great field. So the horse has speed. So it can be, if she needs to be on the lead, but she'll probably sit right off the lead and,
00:50:51
Speaker
get a good trip. I mean, Johnny V, I don't think loves the rail, so I don't know if she's going to save ground on the rail per se, but she'll be stalking maybe too wide or something like that. But um I thought she ran really well last time, and um I would say that's a big rider upgrade. Johnny V is like 72 years old at this point, but you know going from an apprentice who at that point might have already lost her bug, she did. Delilah, I think they pronounced it. Delilah ah Rivera. She already lost her bug, so I don't think she's a bad rider per se, but...
00:51:20
Speaker
Without the bug especially, i you know i don't know. and now you're stepping really up in class. Maybe the horse surprised last time. But if the horse runs like that or a little better, the horse going to this race, I think. So I think Moonlight Ready has a big chance. I just don't think she'll be a a big price. I have her at four to one morning line. I hope I'm wrong and it's higher. The horse – you're saying higher. All right. I hope you're right. The horse who I have at a bigger price, who I'm going to actually key here probably, assuming the bigger price is right, that's a nine-cheese-hour tiz.
00:51:50
Speaker
So why do I like this horse? Well, she's our kids has only had three turf sprints. The first one was her first start where she broke her maiden. I can be honest. I didn't watch the replay of that because it's like eight races ago and I can't watch 17 replays of every horse, but she looked like she ran pretty well in that race.
00:52:10
Speaker
Then they try her long. I won't go through every race. The next time she's short on the turf is last April, coming off about an eight-month layoff or seven-month layoff, and I thought she ran really well this level. Yeah, she can't. I think that's third. I can't see anymore. But she was checked early, and she had a layoff. I thought she ran really well, and that's as third. three-year-old, like a young three-year-old. She's putting up figures that would win this race potentially or be competitive in this race as a young three-year-old. So ah with trouble. So I thought she ran great. Then they stretch her out to Long. And I'm just going to say like maybe Long is not her thing. And she's also going against stakes company.
00:52:45
Speaker
Granted, and some of them were older. wasn't Only one of them was a restricted three-year-old six. So now after that August race last year, she comes off a long layoff, 10-month layoff, comes back in June at this level, and looks like she didn't run well. and you Well, no, you didn't make comment about this. You made a comment about the two. Sorry. Looks like she didn't run well. but First of all, it was a layoff and she was three wide in the whole way. i'm I shouldn't say I'm sure.
00:53:09
Speaker
I'm confident though that she probably needed that race. And if she can get back to those races that she ran before, then I'm pretty sure she has a big shot here. And I think she'll be about eight or 10 to one. I hope even more. um So I'm i'm on She's Artids at that price. And again, I like the four Moonlight Ready a lot too. I just think Moonlight Ready would half the price or less. So I'm going to key the nine. She's our tits. I know we're running long. I do want to say one more thing about another horse, I'll throw to you and then I'll wrap it up quick.
00:53:37
Speaker
Oh, no, go ahead. Yeah, finish off. So you mentioned Sinead. I actually don't mind Sinead here at all. And I'm going to use that horse. wouldn't be one of my key horses. I think she's going to be about eight to one. Last race, similar to what I view in the nine, the two Sinead was coming off a layoff last time. got checked back early, and speed did pretty well in that race. I didn't think it was easy to close into that pace. So I'm going to kind of forgive that race off the layoff. And while you look at 25 – not you, meaning you, but a lot of – I shouldn't point at you, although you said something. But a lot of people see 25 to 1, oh, the horse had no chance.
00:54:10
Speaker
The fact that Sinead was 25 to 1 in the race, A speaks to the layoff, and B speaks, maybe it was a pretty good race. And, you know, the winner came back to break or win again. Boston Spine has just won this weekend a race at the first level out. Actually, Boston Finest, did he win two race she win two races? No, maybe just one. I can look it up. But I think that was a pretty live race that she's coming out of. In fact, the nine, she's our kids, ran against boston's finance Boston Finest. Boston Finest came back to win that race in June. And bought that's it. So Boston Finest beat Sinead, right? She what came in second to Sinead on June 3rd.
00:54:45
Speaker
Came back to break her maiden and then win a first-level allowance, won at this level. So Boston Finest is a nice little horse for this level. So for me, that's another positive for both the horses I mentioned. the two and the nine. a lot of them are coming out of that boston ah Boston's finest race though. So what would I do betting the race? Well, I like the four and the nine the most.
00:55:05
Speaker
I think the nine is going to be the best price. So I'm going to key the nine. If it's different, then if the four is a bigger price, I'll key the four, but I'm going to key the nine. So what would I do? I would do nine with the four, with the two Sinead, and with the eight, I'm not going into Vernon Valley, but unless this horse is really short, put up decent raises as a two-year-old. So maybe off the layoff needs a race, but I'm willing to take a shot at a price for the eight coming in the money here. So I'm Um, I'll throw in the nine with the four, the two and the eight. And if the nine's double digits, I will throw in the 12 with the nine a little bit. Cause I do think the 12 has a good shot shot here and i don't think she's going be that, that short. So that's mostly what I'll do in this race.
00:55:45
Speaker
I might use the nine with the five and the seven a little bit as well, but again, it really is price depending on those sources. So, um, I don't always bet the same way, but oftentimes if I have a price like that, I want to bet. I'll key them with four, five, six horses, three or whatever it is, depending on what I like in this race. So I don't have a favorite I'm necessarily betting totally against, maybe the 12 and a short price a little bit.
00:56:07
Speaker
But anyway, so that's kind of how I'll approach this race. And I guess unless you have something else, we can we can move on to last because we're going really long. Now, the only thing that concerns me about the nine is what Okay, yeah, coming off the layoff and all that, but why the fourteen to one nearly 15-1 in that race, whereas if you look back at the six furlong turf races i the previous year at this level, you know she she ran third in both of them. She went off as the two-to-one favorite one of them and seven-to-two in the other.
00:56:47
Speaker
That just concerns me, and you I don't buy, well you know, she's coming off of a layoff and 10th place finish. But those two were state-bred stakes races. I can understand the fifty to one and twenty to one I just don't understand why the 14-1. Were there are other horses that much better that she would have went off at that price? I mean, know probably yes to some extent, but it's a layoff. It's the fact she's coming off a last place finish or 10th place finish. i think that was last. It's the fact that Michelle Gargulo, if that's how pronounce it, no one's betting her.
00:57:22
Speaker
It's the fact that he's not the rider. But again, easy you look back at last year she was coming off a layoff when you're looking at April 24th, five races back, coming off of a long layoff just like she was then, going six furlongs, same level, and she runs third at seven to two What was different in that race?
00:57:49
Speaker
And plus, she wasn't even on Lasix. she's She got Lasix last time out. it was It was because they didn't like Jamie Rodriguez as a jockey. She was coming – that's part of it. She's coming up with 72 buyers, two-year-old in that race, the layoff last time. So they're going to bet a horse that time. I don't know what was in that field. I mean, can't look.
00:58:11
Speaker
But Boston Finals is a horse who up an 89 buyer winning this race. I mean, the horse was, you know, a nice one. But lot of them are coming at similar races. So I don't know. We can keep talking about it. But I just think that she has... I was just throwing out devil's advocate stuff. That's all. one wouldn and that That was the only reason why I thought maybe her odds would be higher. And like you said, you hope she's double digits. Yeah, mean, I think she's going to be 8 to 1, maybe 10 to 1. So I'm not disagreeing, per se. I hope more but... All right. So... um Let's move on. The last leg of Saturday at Saratoga late pick five. it's race 12.
00:58:48
Speaker
It is a mile and a 16th inner turf event for state bred maidens. claiming price.
00:59:00
Speaker
And um we had some ah discussion pre-recording that I thought maybe the 14 on the AE would be the favorite if he got in. But you had mentioned that you thought the seven leave me with Irad.
00:59:20
Speaker
There's a theme here. Irad Morning Line Favorite, which, yeah, Irad takes money. So, yeah. I'll leave it up to you to take us home with what you believe in this race. There are 16 entered, but only 12 get to exit the starting gate.
00:59:40
Speaker
Go. Yeah, I think the seven, leave me, is definitely going favorite, no question about it, even if 80s draw in. Makes a lot of sense, dropping, DePaz, Red Hot, I-Rat, obviously.
00:59:53
Speaker
So it makes a lot of sense. The problem is, does this horse tower over the field? i don't think so, and I don't want a short price here. So while I think the seven is the most likely winner, and this is going to sound cuckoo to some people, I don't really want to bet the seven. So...
01:00:06
Speaker
If I bet the race, I'm going to try and beat the seven, and maybe that's a fool's errand, but I don't need that horse's short price. I don't think she stands out that much against this field. As far as like a pick five goes, if I'm singling built, I'm already at seven to five single or universal single there. This might actually be the second biggest single in the sequence.
01:00:24
Speaker
the seven in the last race here. And I'm using counting the stars. that was the name of the horse in the, whatever that grade one Philly race. Counting stars. Yes. Thank you. What is that? The coaching club, American Oaks. I forgot what race. correct yeah and And then I get the seven here. I'm talking about pretty minuscule pick five payoffs. So I'd rather try and beat her in the pick five. So pick five purposes, I would spread to beat her.
01:00:47
Speaker
The horse I'm going to actually bet though here in this race and take a swing out Again, it's really just price dependent. It's the four Gilbane. And that's how whoever the announcer was, Chris Griffin, I think, pronounced Gilbane. I thought it was Gilbane, I assume, but Gilbane. This is horse who is dropping in class, ran against Open Company. Now it goes against New York Bread, made in claimers. I don't really love anyone in this race.
01:01:12
Speaker
Last race on November twelfth was very ranked early, even though she saved ground. And I think you get a big rider upgrade. Not that Louie Rivera is terrible rider, but Manny Franco is a big rider upgrade. Yes, you get the layoff. You get the switch to Amelia Green. She's solid off of layoffs and limited samples. So I just think this horse has a shot at a price.
01:01:32
Speaker
Basically, again, dropping in class. Facing New York brands, had a little excuse last time being ranked and all that. Maybe the gelding helped. He's gelded since then. So maybe that helped with that slash rankness or whatever was going on.
01:01:45
Speaker
ah So that's the horse I'm going to kind of key my bets around here. There's some others I'll use. You want me to just finish up with that? or you what Yeah. You got So the horses that I would use, like if i'm betting this pick five to try and beat the seven here, and I'm acknowledging the seven is the most likely winner. But again, I don't want them at that price.
01:02:05
Speaker
The five lobbyists. Oh, actually, I lied. The five lobbyists, I have a seven to two. i i haven't highlighted lobbyists because i want to talk about the horse. But um the five lobbyists, seven to two.
01:02:17
Speaker
Horse seems fine. It's dropping out of a maiden special weight. Was already at this level two back. Came in second by a nose but with a really good trip. So while I think the horse is going to run decent and and most likely be in the top four,
01:02:30
Speaker
I don't know if I want to bet her at a short price in the pick five. So if if if the morning line has lobbyists at like five to one or higher, I'll probably throw her in the pick five, but have her about seven to two. And if that's the case, I'll probably leave her out, but I can see using that horse in the pick five. If leave me, the seven is really short. The other ones that I want to use the nine Kuliana, if that's how you pronounce it. There's a horse who's also dropping at a maiden special weight for the six best jockey in the race, junior Alvarado, who,
01:02:59
Speaker
That's also a joke. Again, we've overplayed that. Most people don't care. no I love Junior Alvarado, but one of our friends, as mentioned before, Big Dave is not a fan. Junior Alvarado just won me that $7,600 last week or two weeks ago, so I i thank him for that. But anyway, this is the worst who – um Off the layoff last time was dueling on the lead against maiden special rates. Dueling a long shot that we put away, but I thought needed the race, showed speed, got in a duel. it was going improve off of that and make sense on the drop. And I think you're going to get a price. So I think you're going to get 6-1, 8-1 maybe on that horse. So if that's a case, like Kuliana. And then photo the 10, I would take a possibly in the pick five. Again, it's all price dependent. That one's about five to one. i need at least that probably for David Duggan is a horse who ran at this level, a couple back.
01:03:48
Speaker
Had a lead and kind of coughed it up. But next time was ah against Open Company. I thought it was a slightly tougher field than this, but it was probably similar. Well, I shouldn't say that. It was probably a similar field to this. But the horse has a little speed and has to work out a trip from the outside post. But if I'm trying to beat the 7L play, don't love any of those horses I mentioned. I really don't.
01:04:07
Speaker
So my main bet is just going to win bet on Gilbana if she's anywhere from like six or eight to one or higher and i expect her to be about eight to one so uh not too many bets for me this race because again i want to beat the seven in the pick five i can but as far as like within the race i don't know if i want to go crazy betting against her so i'll probably just have a win bet i might have some horizontal or um yeah horizontal bets like doubles pick threes pick fives pick four or something like that going into uh the race but otherwise gilbana the four and i am out so gq anything else yeah it's scary because i that's the horse i landed on gilbon or gilbana whatever so um yeah so i in the interest of time i don't want to add it any more false information um coming out of my my uh uh
01:04:58
Speaker
Boy, so did you want to discuss any um pick five sequence, building ticket, or anything like that? I guess just really briefly because I'm already like 20 minutes late to where i have to be. But anyway, mostly my fault though. So yeah, if we go just quickly, race eight, that's a race where I'm going to spread a little bit. It's not the greatest for a pick five because I am probably using the favorite, the nine, Bella No's.
01:05:26
Speaker
the four soloist, the six Vekoma View. So I'm using four, six, nine in race eight. I might add the eight and 12 also. So I'm i'm probably going to be close to five deep there. Race nine, I'm just singling built. I'm not getting much of an advantage, but I don't need to spread in race where I think the the fairly heavy favorite is going win. i don't like that everyone else will have the fourth favorite. And I always look to beat whores like this, but in this case, I'm not going try. So I'm five at most by one.
01:05:51
Speaker
In race 10, the coaching club, I am using counting stars, hoping that always a runner takes money. So in race 10, I'm going one, three, seven for the most part. I don't think I'm going add from there, but if I did, it would be the five, nine. If I added more there. In race 11, I got to turn the page. I think I can't.
01:06:10
Speaker
Where is race 11? Uh-oh. Sorry. I was trying to go quick and I lost my page. Race 11 over there. i'm Probably not going to spread too deep. This is a tough one for me. I'm not going to use Fairy Godmother at a short price even think she can win here.
01:06:25
Speaker
So that's a decision I have to wrestle with. have to play around with the ticket here, but definitely going to use four Moonlight Ready, assuming not a big favorite. The nine, She's Our Tiz I'll be using. I would like to use Sinead, the two, and possibly Vernon Valley, the eight.
01:06:40
Speaker
So I'm 2, 4, 8, 9 in race 11, and I have to see if adding the 12 makes sense. I'll see the morning line. I'll think more about the ticket. So possibly four or five deep there.
01:06:50
Speaker
So I'm basically like three by one by three by three, but probably a little more in some of those races, like five instead of threes in some of those. And then the last race, this is a tricky one for me. I'd like to spread to try and beat the seven. So I'm going to go, you know, I'm definitely going to four, but I'll probably have about four or five fours to beat the seven. So,
01:07:07
Speaker
In that case, I'll probably have to cut down one more leg. you know Instead of like three by five a three by one by five by five by five or something like that, that's a little bit pricey. I'll have to chop down one leg. I'm not really sure what leg it will be. you know Maybe I'll just take a flyer on Gilbane, single Gilbane, because I don't love anyone else. and you know, take a shot there and it won't be an expensive ticket with two singles.
01:07:28
Speaker
But yeah, I'll definitely have to sit narrow down one more leg. And I'd rather narrow one leg than I'd rather not go. I want to use five horses in race. Now I'm going to use three. I'd rather use five. I want to use five and 11, but I'm going to cut it to three. I'd rather not trim three races down and go three by one by three by three by four, whatever it comes out to. I'd rather just make one big cut, take a stand on one of those other four races, whether it's a single or two or something that. And then just that's it. And then I can leave all the horses I want to leave in the other legs. So that's kind of where I'm at. I went a lot longer than I wanted to this week, and I apologize if I talk a lot, but you can finish up. I don't want shortchange So go ahead and get nicely done. All right.
01:08:02
Speaker
Very good.
Conclusion & Call to Action
01:08:03
Speaker
So quickly, um thanks again, everyone, for listening. Thanks again for sharing um this podcast. Tell your friends, neighbors, enemies. And now ah ah we will be on the new app and website today. Equibrieff.
01:08:22
Speaker
It's free download. um ah You get the app on the Apple Store, wherever you want to download free apps. Again, E-Q-U-I-B-R-I-E-F, Equibrieff. It's kind of one-stop shopping. Check it out. We'll be on there.
01:08:40
Speaker
ah You can find us on there in the handicapping content. And there's also a filter there where if you want to get notifications when the podcast is available, you turn that on. And every time, ah like Eric is the one who is uploading the podcast, within 15 minutes after it's uploaded, it's going to be on Equibreef. So check it out. and Tell everybody you know to also, ah again, thanks again for enduring longer than what we want podcast, but hopefully it's well worth the time spent. Eric, I'll let you say the normal goodbyes.
01:09:19
Speaker
That's it. Thanks for listening. Have fun and good luck in the races. Ta-ta.