Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
WCAD 4-37: Round of 16 Preview
3.7k Plays8 days ago
Amit and Austin break out the tactical chessboard and preview a World Cup Round of 16 full of tasty clashes.
Recommended
Transcript
World Cup Round of 16 Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
16 teams left at the World Cup. Eight games to cut them down to eight. And we are previewing them all, kind of, here at the World Cup After Dark Podcast. My name is Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik. The caveat there is because if you're looking for our previews,
00:00:18
Speaker
of Morocco, Canada, and France Paraguay. You can find those on our Patreon feed, patreon.com slash WCAD. We got those previews out early because i admit this World Cup, it gives you no time to
Podcast Introduction and Patreon Content
00:00:28
Speaker
breathe. You finish the round of 32, you go to bed, you wake up it's round of 16 time. Well, we got a preview somewhere.
00:00:34
Speaker
Ain't no rest for the wicked is what I'm hearing, Austin. You just got to keep rolling. more More elimination games, more higher stakes games. The intensity ratchets up. ah Man, this this World Cup just keeps on delivering. So we're here for you. That's what that's what we do at World Cup After Dark.
00:00:51
Speaker
Amit's got his tactical chessboard out. It is loaded. There are also just sticky notes pasted to it that just say, take your chances, practice your penalties, margins.
Keeping Up with World Cup Previews
00:01:02
Speaker
The mad genius is ready to break it all down, Amit.
00:01:05
Speaker
I don't know about Nat Genius, but ah you know we've we've got the World Cup After Dark rules. you know The managers have their own sheets, their own playbook. We've got ours, and we're excited. I mean, just what a delightful round of 16 before we we get into it. like So much narrative, storyline to display. And it's been a great appetizer that hasn't felt like an appetizer. And I feel like we all need to like vacuum our stomachs so that we can take more of this. Because I just think... like the level and
Round of 16 Matchups Overview
00:01:36
Speaker
on display here has gone up. And so, man, and like the it's going to be some blood. It's going to be some blood. It's going to be fantastic.
00:01:47
Speaker
You look at the names, you look at the games here in the round of 16, and you just can't help but get excited. You just go up and down the list, and there are just games loaded everywhere you look. Maybe it starts a bit slow today. and Maybe you're not super intrigued by Morocco, Canada, and France Paraguay.
00:02:03
Speaker
But you get into Sunday and it just feels nonstop from from there until the end.
Brazil vs. Norway: Key Players and Strategies
00:02:08
Speaker
Let's get right into it a bit. Let's start. and We're going to do this preview chronologically so that for our listeners who are maybe coming in late, you can just keep jumping forward until you find the game that you're actually looking for. And that is happening on that particular day.
00:02:21
Speaker
But let's start with Sunday afternoon. it is Brazil, Norway. It's a delicious, delicious game. Erling Holland, Vinny Jr. Brazil are probably better on paper, but there are some clear weaknesses, some systemic limitations. Norway have that as well. You've got a manager in Stel Solvakin who is coming off a really good game. I think it gets Ivory Coast.
00:02:45
Speaker
You've got the best we've seen tactically from Carlo Ancelotti in Brazil. but I don't even know where to start with this one a minute. It's a crazy game. And I think Holland is, you know, everything for Norway. And you start there. He's always dangerous. You have to account for him.
00:03:02
Speaker
But if you had to pick ah two players in a vacuum that could stop him, it'd be Gabriel and Marquinhos, right? And Gabriel, Arsenal, centre-back, Holland, Manchester City striker.
00:03:14
Speaker
You've seen this before. And a lot of soccer fans have seen this before. And it's a physical duel they both, both relish. But the issue is it's a team sport and as good as Holland is, as good as Norway is, right?
00:03:26
Speaker
I think that they're going to have to play a similar game to Ivory Coast against a team that is much more ruthless on the front line. And it's kind of like we've said about Norway. Yes, the attack is good. The midfield has, i think, impressed so far. Defensively, you can ask questions of them. Senegal asked questions. Ivory Coast asked questions but didn't quite finish them. What happens when the team is Brazil?
00:03:48
Speaker
And so you start getting the two out of three phases versus three phases for one team ends up mattering here. You think at some point, right? You think it matters at some point.
00:03:59
Speaker
But Norway are just wily enough and Holland is just dangerous enough that it's a game. And so... This thing to me looks really, really cagey at the big picture level because both teams are afraid of the other teams in transition. And so it could be really, really stale. And then it kind of turns into neither team wants the ball. Both teams want space for their attackers to get into. Both teams are more dangerous in space. So what does that look like to you? so Similar, right?
00:04:27
Speaker
Yeah, and I think this game in particular could really come down to one-on-one matchups. And Norway's best one-on-one matchup winner, if you will, is Haaland. And he's going up against what is probably the strength of Brazil outside their attack, which is their centerbacks.
00:04:45
Speaker
And I think Brazil's strength in a one-on-one matchup is obviously their wing play, in particular in Vinicius Jr. And I think that's going up against a part of the Norway defense where we are maybe not convinced at what they can do at fullback.
00:05:00
Speaker
Right. Ryerson is their starting right fullback. I don't know if he he's fully healthy for this game. He wasn't against Ivory Coast. And so that was a big, big thing we circled here. We got Holmgrim. We also had Arsnes off the bench. and This is Vinny's spot, right? And this is where, listen, I don't think any team in the world can defend Vinny one-on-one. I don't think any team tries to defend him one-on-one. And so...
00:05:22
Speaker
Can you get help? And Norway likes to leave their wingers high, and it's been Sorloth on
Brazil vs. Norway: Tactical Adaptations
00:05:28
Speaker
their right side, where Vinny is on the left side. I don't think you want Sorloth as the help defender. And if you want to leave him high, then your midfield has to come over and help all the time, whether that's Berg or Odegaard. And that rotation is a long way to cover over and over again, because...
00:05:43
Speaker
right I think neither the teams want the ball, but if someone's going to have it, right it's probably going to be Brazil. This game probably looks like Brazil in a a mid-block against Norway's mid-to-deep block and seeing how much they can commit to this overload on the left to free up stuff for Cunha and Ryan and getting things in that half space where Vinny demands the double.
00:06:08
Speaker
When he gets help... Is there someone in that space? Whether that's Bruno Guimara to play the ball or is it Cunha to turn and shoot? And the big question here, right, is we saw Japan expose the weaknesses for Brazil.
00:06:21
Speaker
It's the fullbacks. It's the center midfields in transition. Brazil know this. Brazil very much know this. So do they be very cautious in attacking because it's not Japan counterattacking the other way. It's Odegaard and Holland and Nusa and Sorloth. And so similar thing to the Ivory Coast game, right? You take care of those three non-Holland players.
00:06:40
Speaker
You can kind of neuter the attack, right? But Noosa one-on-one versus Danilo is the the spot for Norway when they get the ball and Brazil have to back off. That's where they're funneling their attacks.
00:06:53
Speaker
So I think that's kind of a really good path for Norway in this game. There's definitely paths to them, you know, finding Brazil on the counter if Brazil are open on the counter. And then what Japan couldn't do is get that second and had to back off and their legs went. Norway have to be opportunistic at trying to get that second goal. One is not going to do it against Brazil. Even if you frustrate them and you get in this low block and you stop Vinny,
00:07:17
Speaker
I think what Ancelotti showed is he will pull the strings of getting Endrick on. He will get Casimir on the box and he will assault the box. And to me, like, I just do not think Norway can hold up on that for 90 minutes is where i I'm seeing this game.
00:07:33
Speaker
And I think what's interesting is, so the second guy coming on Vinicius Jr., who that is, is really going to determine, I think, how Brazil are looking to attack. And if that is a midfielder, then I think that gives those midfield runners and crashers the opportunity to really change the math. And so that's where we've seen Casemiro be really effective in this tournament. And so if it is a midfielder that's trying to come and cover, then that's all this space for Casemiro late run to run into that Brazil can take advantage of. I think this is a massive, massive game for Antonio Nusa because I think that is where Norway can really have joy. Brazil's weakest spot is their fullbacks. And I think in particular, Danilo at right back. I think Douglas Santos at left back can hold his own. I think in particular, if it's Sorloff, who's kind of an improvised winger out on the right, I think Brazil will be okay with that matchup. But I think Danilo against Nusa could be the spot where Norway should, outside of, ah obviously you're trying to get Holland every chance that you can. He's the best number nine in the world.
00:08:32
Speaker
That's where the ball is going to go. That's what you're looking to do. But as you said, I think Marquinhos and Gabriel are capable enough to limit those chances. If Nusa can give Brazil hell on the Brazilian right side, it's going to really change the equation here for Norway and really give them a lot.
00:08:48
Speaker
I think that could be really interesting. No Lucas Paquetá for Brazil. He went off injured. We'll see what Ancelotti chooses to do with that position. I would imagine he probably plays Deleu Santos, who is a more traditional defensive midfield player.
00:09:03
Speaker
Maybe not a super high-level defensive midfield player, right? he He's in Brazil with Botafogo. He had a run in the Premier League, but then came back to Brazil. But I think he is a leggier, chasier option that can kind of snuff out the Norwegian counters.
00:09:16
Speaker
And that's where I would bet that Ancelotti goes to start this game because you're not going to start with Martinelli and kind of that four across the top look that that we saw chasing the game against Japan. You don't want to be chasing the game from the start here.
00:09:29
Speaker
I think you're spot on 100% there. And that's one thing that you're opening to to see is if Danilo can provide some of that stability and do a lot of work on Odegaard. And now you you've got to track Berg for 90 minutes too.
00:09:44
Speaker
This is a Bruno Guimara's game, right? yeah This is if Brazil are stuck on the left. If the overload comes, who is playing the final ball here? it's been him, right? He's got all these assists for this team. He's he's kind of just done it all for Brazil. He's been their most important player outside of Vinny. And so I think if the defense is there from Santos, are you freeing up Bruno Gamares to go be an attack? He doesn't have to do it all. So I like that a lot, a lot for Carlo Ancelotti. And look, the subs here...
00:10:16
Speaker
i' You can't write off Norway's depth. i I think they just kind of surprise Ivory Coast a little bit. Oscar Bob here is definitely a dangerous option. And I would even i would even consider starting Bob.
00:10:28
Speaker
i Maybe he's he's more useful as a backup when the game is in space. But I do think Sorloth is kind of a luxury that you might not you can't like you're not getting stuff out of him. He's not going to have the ball a lot in this game for Norway. Yeah, he's that hold-up threat, but it doesn't quite work on that side, like you're saying, against Santos.
00:10:47
Speaker
Norway is going to probably have to defend and counter at the end of day is what this looks like. And Holland is a good player for it. I think there'll be a moment or two, right? Where the whole crowd sees Holland-Gabriel or Holland-Marquinhos one-on-one and it's it's terrifying, right? I think, Norway, how many moments of those would you take, right?
00:11:05
Speaker
Give me three. Give me three of those for Holland and let's see what happens. Brazil just have to... be very measured and methodical in how they do this. But I will say if Brazil's down one, I like what they can do to to batter that ram in.
00:11:19
Speaker
Norway is kind of game stated Ivory Coast a bit, right? Norway didn't play France. Like we just don't know if this back line, keep saying it's got to come, it's got to come. And yeah, they had troubles with Diamande and Pepe, but Norway's nine or Ivory Coast nine, ah Bonnie wasn't quite ruthless enough. Yeah. This is a big game for Cunha or Vinny or Endrick in the second half.
00:11:46
Speaker
Can you get a nine contribution? Can you have that moment of quality in the box? Like, yeah, Norway are dangerous. I think you're taking the team with Vinny, Cunha, Bruno Gavaris, Casemiro, more guys that are going to do something in that box here.
00:12:03
Speaker
Speaking of the Norway backline, Hagam, Ayer, the center backs, what do they have on set pieces? Is that another part that Brazil can exploit? and That's something we've just kept circling back with Brazil. They found a little bit of that against Japan. I think they're to to hammer that home. The goalkeeping matchup, Allison is a great shot stopper, not a great distributor.
00:12:21
Speaker
Could there be a Holland chase down, track down type situation there that you're looking at? I think that's interesting. And Nyland for Norway, he's got to be big, right? He's got to make the saves. And then Muller Wolf, the Norwegian left back, Haien wasn't great against Japan. i didn't think he really found his footing, but if he can allow Brazil to attack Norway on both wings and just really condense them, it's just going to help tilt the field for Brazil. 100%.
00:12:45
Speaker
ah hundred percent And i do think... if this game doesn't quite settle to Brazil, trying to break down the block, if Norway's trying to play, that's where i'm looking at the press of Brazil to do something of this game. Don't let the ball get to Nusa. Don't let the ball get to Holland. Waited in the midfield. And that's why I want Ryan to show something. And look, Martinelli is, ah is an interesting player. I did not think he had that finish in his bag in that last game against Japan. But,
00:13:13
Speaker
But I think the legs here could really help work Norway down as this game goes. And so I think you you'd imagine Brazil have a physicality advantage, a fitness advantage somehow over the course of this, if it turns sloggy. Like i know Ivory Coast are physical team, but they were kind of had spent so much energy chasing the game. Right. And the worst case for Brazil, you just kind of play boring and dirty.
00:13:39
Speaker
don't Just do not go down 1-0 to Norway. So I think this is kind of a game that that simmers, simmers, simmers, and then it might boil. And we'll see what that looks like.
00:13:50
Speaker
heat wave passing the U.S.
Mexico vs. England: Tactical Analysis
00:13:52
Speaker
Saturday night. The temperatures should drop substantially for Sunday at MetLife. I think that's significant for Norway. I don't think they were looking forward to having to run around in 35, 36 degrees Celsius. man, my brain is Celsius. I've lived in Argentina for too long. I don't even think in Fahrenheit anymore. bet. But I think that's a big advantage for Norway that the the temperature here should be a lot more palatable to them. It's going to be a great game and it's going to be followed by what might be the game of the round of 16. It might not be the two best teams in the round of 16, but it might be the occasion of the round of 16. I mean, the Estadio Azteca, Sunday night, Mexico, England, altitude, atmosphere, Tuchel, Aguirre,
00:14:32
Speaker
Oh, this is so tasty. This is the type of World Cup game that is talked about for generations. you saw Maybe you saw that tweet somewhere. And it's like the type of game dads are talking about. It just is. like Man, what a delight that we all get to witness this. And...
00:14:50
Speaker
I think England here are the favorites. Let's start there. They are the better team. That has not changed. England are just player for player. The pedigree here, like how many of these Mexican guys are of a premier league level?
00:15:03
Speaker
You got 11 England guys at a premier league level, best league in the world. Okay. You got Raheem Menos. And then you got, you know, 10 guys that aren't at that level. you You got a few that are close, right? So just like player for player, you've got 11 players that are better. I think you have to start there.
00:15:20
Speaker
Once you you get past that, I just think all these little, little pieces are adding up in Mexico's favor. And so I'll ask you the question. This is a really, really tricky one. I don't know. And I think you and I are maybe two of the best people to try to answer this question, honestly.
00:15:36
Speaker
What does the altitude mean for home field advantage? What does the home field advantage look like at the Azteca? Why is this such a hard game for England? And not just like everyone's going to say the altitude, the altitude, the altitude. Yeah, the air is thin. But like, what does this look like over 90 minutes in a way that gives Mexico an an advantage? So I think the number one thing that I would come back to with this game in particular is the complete unfamiliarity for anybody in England to have ever played at anything resembling altitude like this. And so I think there's two factors in that.
00:16:09
Speaker
There's one, the fact that they simply don't know the little strategies that you do to try and combat this. The last time a big European team played at altitude amid the 1986 World Cup in Mexico. The last time England played a game at altitude was in 1986, Maradona hand of God goal game against Argentina. There is just a simple lack of familiarity. European teams do not experience this. European players do not experience this. That's number one. And so because of that, number two is...
00:16:40
Speaker
The mentality of it is starting to play here because in this era of international football where everything is so controlled, where we're giving players the specific meals that they should eat before games, we're timing everything out, we're taking advantage of these hydration breaks.
00:16:56
Speaker
This is something that England wish they could control because you want to be prepared for it. but you simply can't because it's something that you can't change. And so in that, England have talked a lot about the altitude. And that I think is even going to play it even more.
00:17:11
Speaker
So let's be abundantly clear here. This is not El Alto. This isn't 13,500 feet above sea level where you simply cannot run. This is Mexico City. We're at 7,000 feet. It has an effect, but it isn't completely sapping like it would be if you're playing an away game against Bolivia.
00:17:27
Speaker
But that is almost even more dangerous because you start doing more than what you can actually get away with. And so what happens is you simply can run less. You have to run less because every time you run, it takes that much longer to recover from it to get back to the run. The ball will move. The ball will dip.
00:17:45
Speaker
It will be different than what you're experiencing at sea level. But again, This isn't El Alto where you're just pinging it from 40 yards and it's going to stay down. But I think it's been interesting how much England have talked about this. It shows that they're aware of it, which is good, but I think it's going to start to play in their heads a little bit too because look...
00:18:04
Speaker
there's You can't change it. It's there. It's a fact of how this game is going to go. But I think England could almost be better served to kind of try and ignore it and trust that they are a physically fit team that can run. It's going to be absolutely fascinating to watch how it plays out.
00:18:20
Speaker
And you know Mexico, I think, are maybe going to be a little bit less inclined to sit back and play defensive because they want to press this advantage. They want to get England running because if they can get England running, they're going to tire them out and those legs are going to go and they're going to go faster than they would in a quote unquote normal game.
00:18:39
Speaker
Well said. It's fascinating. And I think this is a really, really like unknown thing we don't know. This is a question like you and I can talk about. Anyone can talk about. No one can tell you the answer here.
00:18:53
Speaker
Should Javier Aguirre press this advantage? Should he attack England? Will he look dumb if he tries to run at them and break them and believes his team with the altitude is more fit?
00:19:05
Speaker
Or is that, you know, in any other scenario, is it suicide to go against a better team and play with the ball like Algeria, Switzerland? Generally, if you're the worst team, you should not be more aggressive.
00:19:17
Speaker
It caught Ecuador, right? And maybe the level of Mexico and Ecuador is closer than we thought. So like truly, truly, truly, the this game rests on how much of advantage does Javier Aguirre think the altitude gives his team? How does he set them up to play? Does he set them up to be aggressive, free-flowing, and attack England? That manifests his lineup selection in the midfield, how aggressive he asks his fullbacks to overload. Those are the two things here which you saw against Ecuador worked.
00:19:45
Speaker
They flat-up worked against Ecuador. For 30 minutes, they ran Ecuador off the field. If you try that for 30 minutes and you're also only up one, it's it's dangerous, right?
00:19:56
Speaker
do you have do you have two surges in you? If you don't try it, are you saving your your surge for somewhere else? I feel like generally, if this game wasn't altitude, you'd know what it would look like.
00:20:07
Speaker
Defend and counter. Mexico defends, defends, defends, tries to counter. And they could do it with Quinones, right? Jimenez and Mora. But I think there's a legitimate unknown in this game that Javier Aguirre could do something different because it worked for him in the last game. Because you look across at the field and go like, when are we going to get a chance to to do this again against a team this good? That might be our best way to score.
00:20:32
Speaker
There's no one who can answer this question. It is fascinating. And I think when do you surge to write? Could you make the case that maybe England approached England watch the tape? Obviously, right? They watch the Ecuador game. Do England come into this game saying, hey, they might try and get us in the first you know quarter here and maybe England will play you a free stalemate. Maybe you get 20 minutes for free in this game where you have England so fearful of what you showed against Ecuador, but they just don't do anything like they did against Congo. And Congo kind of scored out of nothing and in that condition, the game. But if England are playing like that, can Mexico buy themselves 20 free minutes in this game and then surge once England start trying to do things? Like it's such a tactical game, this. And it's so, so interesting because Mexico, It falls back to the question that you asked at the very start of this preview, Amit, which is England are 11 on 11 better. They have 11 better players than Mexico do.
00:21:26
Speaker
But how much do all of those little advantages that Mexico have, those intangibles, if you will, do those add up enough to level the playing field or to put Mexico better?
00:21:37
Speaker
And we're going to find out over 90 minutes on Sunday night. Yeah, and let's answer the question. what How do you quantify home field advantage? What's Mexico's record at the Azteca? Like just off the top of your head, like give me the give me the number.
00:21:50
Speaker
ah Very freaking good is the answer to Mexico's record. They don't lose in home matches at the Azteca. They have been great at this stadium. They've never lost, obviously, at a major tournament. They have owned CONCACAF teams left and right in this stadium.
00:22:03
Speaker
And now they're getting somebody who's not prepared for the atmosphere, who's not prepared for the altitude. They're prepared mentally, but they've never experienced it. You've got to take this. This is the advantage to try and take, right?
00:22:15
Speaker
Right. And so that's why, despite being 11 players better, this thing is essentially like a 55 percent, 60 percent England edge, I think.
00:22:27
Speaker
um So this is fun to watch. I think we are all going to be watching this game like from a historical soccer perspective to figure out what this looks like. This is just a tremendous, tremendous setup.
00:22:38
Speaker
Let's talk about what could happen on the field. How does Mexico try to approach this? Well, it's Quinones. He's been the danger man. And you're specifically looking at the England right back spot. Quinones on the left wing. If it's Jed Spence, can you get him one-on-one? Can you beat him? The issue is Sepanga for Dierkongo is a short, tricky, dribbly player.
00:22:58
Speaker
Spence is a good athlete, pure directional speed, and that's where Quinones is trying to beat you on directness. So is that a different matchup? Does Quinones have a changeup in his bag? Can he turn into a take on player? Can he spin Jed Spence around? Can you get that one on one in transition? Can you see how high the England line is going to be? And I say, look, it's 11-11 is better, but Jimenez is your best player.
00:23:22
Speaker
i don't think Conson-Gahee is like some impossible center back duo for him to undo. He scored a lot of goals this year at Fulham, like a mid-table club because he's a good player in the Super League ah of the Premier League.
00:23:34
Speaker
He's got to try to beat those guys across the post, over the top, back to goal. They need Jimenez and Quinones to be great outlets. They just do. And then, you know, Can you play Mora? Mora played against Ecuador. If you play more in this game, like, yeah, I think he's up for it. I think he can shoot from distance, but like,
00:23:53
Speaker
Mora, Romo, third midfielder Lira. like Can those guys hang with Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson? like Because you play too many attacking guys and you don't get anything. The threat of the England counter the other way is theoretically lethal, right? Rashford running, Gordon running if he if he's in, Saka on the right side, Madweke. England never get to be the counter team. And that's one thing that just like we we could but We could enter that state that we've never seen, and it'd be such a weird state. So I just don't know exactly how Aguirre approaches it. He's had both fullbacks bombing bombing up the wings and Alvarado cutting in. like It's been a very intricate attack.
00:24:36
Speaker
do you try Do you try that against England back backline or not? I don't know. and And that's why he's the manager who who's making the money. I think you have to try it at points, right? Like I don't think Mexico want to play this game on England's terms of England has the ball. They're not forced to exert themselves physically and they're just trying to slowly but surely break Mexico down.
00:24:55
Speaker
I think Mexico are going to try to be clinical, obviously, on the break, but I think they want to surge with numbers. I think they want to make England run and chase as much as possible in this game. And I think Thomas Tuchel, I mean, has a very fascinating question of what does he do with his other two of his four, right? So we know Kane, we know Bellingham. Those guys are on the team sheet. They're going to start.
00:25:15
Speaker
We know everything behind is is probably pretty set, right? It's Rice and Anderson in the midfield. The back four feels pretty so pretty set. Pickford, obviously, in goal. He's got two spots there and he's cycled through Madueke, Gordon, Rashford, Saka.
00:25:30
Speaker
Which two does he start with? When does he change the two? Does he change both the two at the same time? That I think is the big lineup, big approach question for England. Are you going for work rate with somebody like Gordon?
00:25:43
Speaker
Are you going for overall flash with somebody like Rashford? Do you think Madueke can have joy? What does Saka even have to give you? Those are the questions that we don't know, but I think might decide this game.
00:25:57
Speaker
but We straight up don't know. I think defensively, protection wise, if you see that this is a big game for Mexico and you feel they might be taking a big swing at you, i think you might want Gordon and Meduake to just be runners and say, we're not getting beat by these fullbacks today. Like Rashford is more of the luxury player and Saka is kind of...
00:26:16
Speaker
in a bubble wrap this tournament of why isn't he playing at the level he necessarily was in his peak this year at Arsenal or last year at Arsenal. And so that I'm with you really, really have to see it. Now, the thing that like generally England need to do in this game is use the ball to buy themselves time to prevent the running. And so does Mexico press them? Does Mexico press them? And can they do anything? Because, know,
00:26:41
Speaker
I think Tuchel wants to just like let time go without getting energy and use his 10-minute stretches of box assault where Mexico theoretically should not be able to handle it. right so It could be cagey, but a goal a Mexico goal could change everything and fuel the belief.
00:26:59
Speaker
It's crazy. We've talked for 10 minutes on this game. England's guy is Harry Kane. And the altitude is the type of thing that would hurt a player like him who just physically is not that fit to compared to his teammates. He's an old slow striker.
00:27:14
Speaker
But maybe he doesn't need to move at all in this game. He's just waiting. He's just waiting for one moment. And this is the breadwinning game for Vasquez and Cesar Montez.
00:27:25
Speaker
Congrats. You see the scouting report. There's one name on it. Now you have to go do it for 90 minutes. I just don't think the Mexico defense has ever played this this level of a striker. They haven't. And to try to do what they need to do.
00:27:39
Speaker
That is the England-England X factor. And also, if it's a really boring, controlled, slimy game, both teams want set pieces. But I think those those England set pieces, Declan Rice, is ah another player we haven't talked about.
00:27:53
Speaker
A key, key thing that Mexico have to be aware. of Declan Rice we saw used as a right back in that game against Congo I don't think that's gonna button from a start that you want to press for England I don't think you want rice because can you notice is there on the left wing for Mexico but that could be a switch that if England need a bit more and if they feel like they have Mexico pinned in a bit that could be a button they press I look at Raul Ron hell the Mexican goalkeeper They've yet to allow a goal this tournament, right? Four games played, no goals allowed. He's been big. Are there big saves there? And you look at the other side, Jordan Pickford hasn't been great. Has it been super tested here?
00:28:29
Speaker
But I think this Mexico team can do more against him than anybody that England has seen outside of of Croatia there for a bit.
00:28:37
Speaker
100%. goalkeepers will be massive. And I think if you're Quinones, Moran, Jimenez, you have to be thinking about how can I test Pickford in the altitude? Does he know how this ball moves at altitude? He's going to have to find out. And like you said, England talked about it. it I'm not sure they know it. So there's so many little wrinkles here. And think England have the better subs. We know they have the better players.
00:28:59
Speaker
But can Mexico ride game states or just kind of hang around in a cagey game? Like... Tuchel does not expect that 0.07 XG chance to go in against him from Sopenga against DR Congo. Like this guy wants the game to be low event. He's built to take a game like this and make it miserable. And I think at the end of the day, Mexico might just ride that and muck in here. Like,
00:29:25
Speaker
Yeah, Brazil, Norway, we said was a simmer. This is just like two rocks at altitude. And I think that's where you start asking the question, Aguirre wants to dislodge it. He wants to make something happen in this game. Because if he doesn't, like I don't think you play England's game. And so if he introduces chaos in 10, 20 minutes of this game, who the hell knows what happens? You just like get to pure, pure World Cup madness. I think there is just going to be...
00:29:52
Speaker
bonkers stuff happening at a point in this game that is going to just blow the the soccer world open. I could not tell you what happens. And the atmosphere is just going to be to die for. It's going to be so, so good. There's going to be ah a day-long
Spain vs. Portugal: Match Preview
00:30:05
Speaker
buildup. We had some controversy over whether kickoff time would be moved. As we're recording this podcast, it looks like it's not going to be. There could be rain. It's going to be massive. It's going to be awesome. It's a can't-miss World Cup match. And like you said, a match that we will be talking about for a long, long time.
00:30:20
Speaker
Let's shift to Monday a minute, where we're going to follow that up with an Iberian derby between Spain and Portugal. It just keeps getting better and better. This is ridiculous. I mean, this is the type of game you live for. This could be a semifinal. This could be a final. This could have been a European final. I mean, two of the most technical quality player 11s on the field in the tournament, right?
00:30:42
Speaker
you love You love pretty soccer. Just put this table on, sit back, relax, kick your feet up and have some popcorn. the The pure talent on display, watching these two midfielders try to suss each other out is going to be the stuff of legend. And so let's start big picture. Like Spain is favored. in this game.
00:30:59
Speaker
They're just, they have more quality and more players in the field. And Portugal, despite that crazy Croatia ending, still have the Ronaldo problem. And if there's ever a game where 11 verse 10 actually matters, that one 11th actually matters, it's against a team like Spain that makes you defend a hundred percent of the field. Right. And so somehow that, that adds up somewhere. Right.
00:31:22
Speaker
But Portugal are not out of this game because of their quality. And I think the thing for Portugal you're thinking is, I want to make that Spain backline defend. They haven't been tested. We have the players to test them. We have Leao.
00:31:34
Speaker
We have Bruno Fernandes. Three versus three in the midfield. We can win that game. Rodri Pedro Olmo is the wrong balance versus Vatinha, Neves, and Bruno Fernandes. If we win that, we might be able to make them chase us. Who chases who in this game?
00:31:50
Speaker
I mean, we don't actually know. And that's where like the expectations could be wrong. Spain is a big favorite in this game. I'm like, I'm not sure that's 100% right. To me, I see this much more of like a 60-40 than um Spain's being priced at minus 220. And I i know Ronaldo is an issue, but Portugal are so good. like Doesn't that feel wrong for like the third versus fifth best team in the world? Spain, though, looked really, really good against Austria. And are this is this version of Portugal actually the fifth best team in the world with the CR7 question obviously hanging over everything?
00:32:24
Speaker
And Spain just might have the ability to just keep the ball away from Portugal. If they keep the ball away from Portugal, I don't know that I'm super convinced by Portugal, particularly in the fullback position. And this could be, right? Jamal gets all the headlines on the right. But this could be a big Baena-Cucurella game going at João Cancelo, the Portuguese right back.
00:32:46
Speaker
And if Spain can work that overload and get those tricks and balls in, Portugal might not be able to see enough of the ball to make that midfield matter here. And if that midfield tries to make itself matter by chasing and getting out of position, we've seen that movie with Spain and it doesn't end well for the opposition.
00:33:05
Speaker
Right. It does feel like Spain is more ruthless versus Ronaldo and the Portuguese attack. So, yeah, I think Cancelo, if he starts in this game, that's a big, big weakness for Cucurea to overload. And so there there might be something there. I wouldn't be lose surprised if Bobby Martinez like pre-subs out Cancelo to use him as a super sub because that'd be the biggest thing. Croatia was able to attack it.
00:33:31
Speaker
And even Croatia, who is much worse than Spain, has enough technical quality. There are moments where they boss the Portuguese midfield, especially when the work rate on the front line drops off.
00:33:41
Speaker
Bobby Martinez has left his front three high. We know Ronaldo stays high, but he's left Liao high. He's left Pedro Neto high. You cannot leave your wingers high against Spain because both of these fullbacks, we've seen it, basically want it to get in the box. So...
00:33:56
Speaker
Portugal's going to have to track back and defend. And if it's two teams chasing each other, it feels like it'll be Portugal chasing Spain generally. But can Portugal get Leal on the Spain right back? That's where you're circling. Leal is a big, dangerous guy. And Pedro Porro is vulnerable defensively. I think you can get stuff on him. And I think Nuno Mence can also come in an overload. Make Yamal track back. Yamal also wants to stay high. So that little wing here, the Yamal-Leal wing,
00:34:27
Speaker
So whose interest is it to play down this this wing more? Where's the threat lurking if you play down this wing and lose it? I mean, it's really, really dicey. And I wouldn't be surprised maybe even if you see Marcos Llorente because Luis de la Fuente is scared of Leal. And then if you start watching like these managers are pre-rotating, it could turn into a very cagey game for 60 minutes. I think it's in Portugal's interest to slow this thing down, to be the...
00:34:54
Speaker
the defensive team, the antagonist team to the ball team and make Spain try to break them down. I said that about Austria. And what did they do? They got absolutely shredded. You cannot come to Spain and go toe to toe, even if you're Portugal. I think that's where this game goes. And if you defend and counter, maybe there's more joy in there. Bobby Martinez doesn't really do that, though. So...
00:35:16
Speaker
I don't know. like There's still ways where Spain is on the front foot as a better team and Portugal get up because there's individual quality from layout or even Ronaldo, right? So it's it's a tricky little tangle. Spain's defense has also not been tested at all. We mentioned that Mexico haven't conceded. Spain also haven't conceded and they really haven't even given anything resembling a clear chance in any of the games they played. I think the idea of Yamal as a late runner here is very interesting as well. If Spain choose to kind of tilt left with the Bayana Cucurea kind of overload on the left, trying to take advantage ah of Cancelo and of Neto not tracking back, then that leaves Yamal in the making runs, flashing across the box role, where when paired with Ouer Thabo, who has that kind of movement that can give a defense trouble, that could work too here for Spain.
00:36:09
Speaker
And if you're okay you're picking out weaknesses, Cancelo maybe, Ronaldo's work rate maybe, I think you've got to get to Vega and Diaz, right? Make those guys defend. Portugal or Croatia had success getting stuff on that. Matanovic, the Freiburg striker for Croatia, was able to make those guys defend. And so...
00:36:30
Speaker
I think Oyer Thalba can do that. Yamal can do that as an off-ball runner. the The thing here for Spain is if Portugal actually frustrated them, could you make Spain regret not having a physical presence up top? yeah Portugal's got an athlete in Ramos too that that can be in there and Liao in there. And so like they can bring a physical dimension of this game that maybe Spain hasn't seen best the The the combination of physicality and technical because, you know, Spain is all the way up on the one slider. Right. But could you could you bully them and and hang around in this game just enough? And the other thing is like ah Pedro Neto, like I don't really want to see him. I'd rather see Consasso. Like, I just think he's better at this point and he does so much more dynamism for the attack. And
00:37:15
Speaker
I would respect Bobby Martinez 100% more if he came out and just started Ramos, Leão, and Consasão. I'd say, oh boy, we are up for a game. If he doesn't do that, the minutes Ronaldo plays in this game are minutes they're losing. And Spain have to come out of those minutes up one or up two. Do not be down up one when Ramos comes on in this game. That might not be enough.
00:37:36
Speaker
At some point, even in that second half, we saw Austria get transition on the Spain back line. At the end of the day, you can't really defend with five. You can't defend with four plus Rodri against a good team. And Spain, not like they have the athletes to defend their box. If you box assault them, you better be up to it comes to time to that.
00:37:54
Speaker
I think the lineups on this game might be the most intriguing of the round of 16. I think we know most of the answers for the majority of the teams here, right? There may be a question or two that we're asking.
00:38:06
Speaker
This game, I think, has the most divergent paths of lineups. And so an hour before this game, when you see the teams and you start to do the math in your head to where the numbers are going to be here, i think it's going to be absolutely fascinating.
00:38:18
Speaker
And you mentioned it, the physicality of Portugal If they're down one, if they're box assaulting for 10 or 15 minutes, that's a question that Spain has not been asked yet in this tournament. Uruguay didn't do it effectively. Austria have physicality, but no technical ability. The mix of physicality and technicality that Portugal can have here, it's a question Spain have not answered yet.
00:38:36
Speaker
And again, maybe they're up two or three and it doesn't matter. But if they're only up one, could get sweaty down the end. This is such a such a good game. It's a round of 16 game because Portugal lost the group. And so because of that, I think it's a deserving round of 16 game, but this would not be out of place in a semifinal or new European final.
00:38:54
Speaker
100%. It's just a super, super high-level game. Super fun. Look, I i think there are there are enough scenarios where Portugal can win this game. I think they can find this game. And we saw this game in 2018. I know a lot of different players. It was a 3-3 tie. Portugal and Spain are just so linked. like It's shocking to me that the odds are so off. And I know the models have Spain as a better team in ways that we talk about through the better team.
00:39:16
Speaker
But i just like I think this is going to have lots of twists and turns and quality at every position. and Both of these managers are stubborn. De La Fuente doesn't want to rock the boat, and Bobby Martinez is a kumbaya guy. Now, when push came to shove, he did the thing he needed to do against Croatia.
00:39:34
Speaker
Who here has a wrinkle that the other team isn't expecting? Who is that wrinkle? It could be a player we have not talked about. Is there something for for Williams, right? Nico Williams finally having a moment in this game.
00:39:46
Speaker
Is Mikel Marino the crazy box crasher? Does Rui Costa steal you a game for Portugal in the back line, right? Like, there are all these little things that we don't even know could end up mattering.
00:39:58
Speaker
Clear your calendars for Monday because you get this game in the afternoon and then you go right into USA Belgium, which is the fascinating question answered game
USA vs. Belgium: Team Dynamics
00:40:08
Speaker
for the US. It is the game that we've kind of had circled for the entirety of this cycle. It's the game that you have circled for the entirety of every single US men's World Cup cycle, right?
00:40:18
Speaker
They're going up against a tiered European team, right? I don't know exactly where Belgium are fitting into this conversation right now. But I think for the first time in my memory, this is as good as you should feel about the U.S. s in this game.
00:40:34
Speaker
And the numbers back that out a minute. This is 50-50 right down the middle. Given what we saw Senegal do to Belgium for 80-85 minutes, can't the U.S. do that with maybe less athletes but more attacking quality?
00:40:49
Speaker
I think so. And so we had said before the tournament, man, this game is great. I think Belgium will be slight favorites, right? They've got all the players. Then we watch Belgium playing. Oh, they're old and slow. We watch the United States play. Oh, they're really fun and dynamic. And we go, United States is better. I'd give them a hair. And then Flo Balogin comes out. And I think we said right after that on our our recap podcast of USA Bosnia, 50-50. And that's basically where the numbers spit out here. So yeah.
00:41:14
Speaker
It's a toss up. And I know Belgium is vulnerable. I think they are old and slow. Senegal beat them by almost 2xG on the day. You can hang that banner. You don't actually get anything.
00:41:27
Speaker
And so that just kind of speaks to you have to finish the job in this game. That is the theme of this game from a US perspective. Belgium hang around.
00:41:37
Speaker
Belgium have buttons. Belgium are experienced. They might not have athletes on that back line, but I do think some of the quality on the front line might be better than the United States quality on the front line, especially without Balogun. You have to win by volume, by force, by hard work, by making runs over and over again, and then finishing what you get.
00:42:04
Speaker
so at all of the stuff we've talked about, what I just said in those last 30 seconds was always, always going to be the case in this game. It is the ultimate test of this team, their focus and playing up to the level.
00:42:17
Speaker
I think everyone in America has been waiting to see it. And now it's like right there. And I just think Belgium are the, the, The perfect level of can you do it? ken is this Are you ready or are you not ready? This is a team right at your level. They're built in the exact way you opposite way as you. like They're a high high stars, bad bad players team. You've got 11 guys that you feel are better, but you're missing your striker. like Boy, it's another great math question. like i actually like i felt so good that Senegal was better than Belgium. I felt so good about that.
00:42:52
Speaker
I don't feel like this is an easy layup for the United States. I think this is going to have some twists and turns. So I think the U.S. equation here is pretty simple, and I want to get into it. I want to break it down. Obviously, Pepe comes in for Balogun. But other than that, I think we'll see the U.S. that 11 is set.
00:43:09
Speaker
The Belgium 11, I think, is going to be very interesting to see here. and And I want to start with what does Rudy Garcia do? Because... Did he find something repeatable down the stretch against Senegal or did they simply walk into two late goals? What are the lessons learned from there, if any, because their best player on paper and the player that I think you would be most fearful from a U.S. perspective is probably Jeremy Doku.
00:43:34
Speaker
I think he gave the U.S. fits when these two teams met in a pre-World Cup friendly back in March. But then the rest of the Belgium attack is pretty mediocre, maybe. But then they were the guys who came in and scored against Senegal. So what sense is Rudy Garcia making of all of this? And where is he starting this game on Monday night in Seattle?
00:43:54
Speaker
It's a big question. He's got to figure out his midfield pivot. And to me, how defensive or how attacking he goes with the pivot kind of conditions the game state and the way the United States will attack them.
00:44:05
Speaker
If he goes Telemans-Raskin, Telemans-Onana, if Telemans is in the back two or De Bruyne is in the back two, you're thinking we're bullying these guys off the ball. I really want to go attack them. I really want to feel like I can attack this game and they're not going to be able to do a lot here.
00:44:23
Speaker
If he benches one of Thielmann's or De Bruyne and he goes with the Raskin-Onana double pivot, something like that. I mean, Vanakken's not really a holding midfielder, but he could moonlight there. If he does something like that, I think it's a grimy game where then you're actually the running is going to be tough.
00:44:41
Speaker
And the thing for Belgium is... if they can get two defenders plus four two defensive midfielders plus four defenders, they can feel like the the disconnected four and six is balanced enough on attacking versus defensive players. I think if you start the one too many attacking players in the midfield, you've opened up the game for Adams, McKinney, and Tillman. At this point, very clearly the heart of this United States team to bully you off the ball. And that was the thing for Senegal, is that Gay...
00:45:12
Speaker
Kamara, Diara, and Gay bully them off the ball. And that's where you start in this game for the United States. You have to bully the Belgian midfield off the ball, no what no matter who it is. like You just have to. You cannot let the ball get to Doku. You cannot let the ball get to Trossard.
00:45:27
Speaker
So then if he chooses to not play Tillmans in double pivot, does Tillmans come forward into a 10 role where he was actually pretty effective down the stretch against Senegal? Is Trassard starting alongside him? I think you have to start Doku, but what are you getting from Jeremy Doku? You pull them after 55 minutes in a must-win game down two goals.
00:45:46
Speaker
ah Questions here. He's very clearly not as effective in this tournament as he was before the tournament in friendlies. And he had a great end of the season in Man City. And it shows you how quickly time can change here.
00:45:58
Speaker
i think you need Doku to be your superstar, right? You have to funnel the ball to him and ask him to have a great take on game. United States, this is Serginio Dest on the right back. And you can have joy.
00:46:09
Speaker
Tim Weah couldn't guard him. I don't think Dest can guard him. But you know who can is Alex Freeman, the right center back. And so... It's a really interesting shape game. Is that your third player going one-on-one? Because if he beats him, there's one less guy. So I think you start with Dest, and then Freeman is the help. And you're counting a lot on Freeman as the free safety to know when to come in, know when to sit, and if he goes...
00:46:35
Speaker
A lot of pressure on Ream and Richards to watch the striker. And so that is just the number one thing. You've got to find a way to Doku. And it starts by not letting the ball get to Doku, showing help. And you know else can show help is McKinney. McKinney can show help here. Adams can show help here.
00:46:49
Speaker
Make it work it and don't get beat on the overload, the central overload for the 10, whoever that is. Yeah. got to watch all those bodies. I trust the United States to do that pretty well. The the way you beat the United States is by making Ream defend. And I just don't know outside of Romelu Lukaku who's going to do that.
00:47:06
Speaker
So that's another question for Rudy Garcia. Yeah. Catullari has been basically ineffective throughout the whole tournament. Can he even afford to play 45 minutes of him? Does he have to start with Big Rom and then get to Matias Fernandez Pardo, who maybe not a physical number nine, but a running number nine, a channel number nine? You need to make the defenders move.
00:47:28
Speaker
I think if you start Catullari in this game, you're basically giving the United States 45 minutes where they feel like they can just bully you off the field. And what does Lukaku have? We haven't seen Lukaku go 90 minutes. and i don't think you're trusting him to go 90 here. That's where the day Catullari question comes in. It's so fascinating from a Belgian perspective.
00:47:47
Speaker
From an American perspective, I think you feel really good about nine of the guys in the lineup because they're your nine guys. Yeah. questioning about Matt freeze in goal because he hasn't really been tested so far in this tournament, probably going to have the biggest test he's seen so far here. And then it's Ricardo Pepe who comes in for the suspended flow balligan. And the question is basically a bit what you got, Ricardo.
00:48:09
Speaker
I mean, this is a career, career legacy game for him. And this is like, I think, such a fitting game for the United States that like Balogun has been their, their like, not their savior, but their complete elevator in this tournament, their most dynamic player. And now you've got to turn back to a homegrown MLS guy that is, you know, had some success in Germany and the Netherlands, but he's not quite made that leap yet.
00:48:35
Speaker
He's a very good player. Let's start there. Ricardo Pepe is a good striker. But at this level in the round of 16, might be one of the worst strikers on the field outside of like Paraguay and you know Egypt even. like No, he's not. So can you win when you have all these midfielders and your striker is more of a fringe Europa League level, not a Champions League level striker?
00:49:01
Speaker
It's a tough question. What does Ricardo Pepe does well? He's very good at interpreting space in the box. He makes runs across defenders. He knows where to find space. He knows how to shoot the ball, get it out under his feet. He's got weird finishes. He's much more of a classic poacher.
00:49:16
Speaker
But what he doesn't do is run that channel as hard and as wide as Balogun. He doesn't want to drag wide. He wants to be in the box where he's tall and can get a shot. Balogun feels like he can beat his guy off the dribble.
00:49:28
Speaker
I don't think Ricardo Pepe's beating a lot of guys off the dribble here. So if you're not getting that dynamism from Pepe off the ball, who's doing it? The United States has to kind of adjust their whole front five Pentagon thing for Pepe. So I think Pulisic and McKinney and Tillman need to have a great game at giving Pepe like five chances to his feet or to his head. He's a very good header of the ball.
00:49:56
Speaker
Can he get one or two? Can he make that happen? Or if he's not a runner, he's an underrated playmaker. To me, that's why I'm saying, can Pepe give you an assist to Pulisic or Tillman as getting a shot at the top of the box? That to me is the pattern for the United States to get this game.
00:50:14
Speaker
Because you're not going to burn the Belgium center backs over the top like you did with, you know, Tsar from Crystal Palace. If you're not doing that, this game gets a lot grimier and not as easy as it was for Senegal to break it open.
00:50:27
Speaker
And the big X factor maybe for Belgium here is Thibault Courtois and goal is a massive plus for them. Whereas Matt Freeze for the US is probably a question mark at best.
00:50:38
Speaker
and this is just like profiles is such an easy villain for the United States fan base. Like Tibor Corta has slimed so many European giants out of a champions league knockout game. He is legitimately one of the best goalkeepers of the modern era. He is the absolute worst X factor you can have in a game where,
00:50:58
Speaker
we're going to dominate this game in the midfield. We might run into more chances, but we're missing our best finisher. And now we have to go up against best goalkeeper. Like sometimes as's reductive as like, it takes more to beat a guy like Courtois, right? Like you really got to find something excellent. So it's slimy for the United States, man. It really is.
00:51:19
Speaker
Set pieces here for the U S could also be a place that they're looking to take advantage of. Yeah. I think, you know, Richards, Vreem, Freeman, McKinney, they've always been a threat. This is one where if it turns into kind of a cagey Belgium game where there's not a lot of space because they don't want to give the U.S. space, it's your best button to press.
00:51:41
Speaker
Can you beat you know Arthur Teot? Can you beat Mekele? They're good physical center back, so I'm not sure it's going to be easy. So we'll see.
00:51:52
Speaker
And then the depth for the U S is something that we haven't seen at this tournament. They have their guys, they're going to play their guys. They're and making an enforced change here. Obviously, obviously with Pepe for Balogun has the U S had enough time off since Wednesday into Monday that you can trust these guys to pretty much all play 90 minutes, because I think that's probably the expectation, right?
00:52:14
Speaker
yeah, the subs is something Pochettino hasn't wanted to call on. And I think that is an issue, but Belgium played 120, right? In that last game. And so you do have that legs advantage. That's one, one thing you worry about.
00:52:28
Speaker
Garcia, Garcia will mix it up. Garcia is like a little bit desperate. He's like, he doesn't really have a great team. So he has to try things. Pochettino, as good as he's been, and you give him all the plaudits, I think the United States are kind of a one-gear team.
00:52:45
Speaker
Is that fair? In a great way, but like what's the mix-ups here for for this United States team if they're down a goal? and That's where like you might have to like look at your your room and find Haji Wright. This could be an emergency break-the-glass Haji Wright game.
00:53:03
Speaker
Gio Reyna could maybe be a change up here for the U.S. trying to look to break down a team, maybe maybe if they're chasing a goal. But other than those two guys, the subs are basically legs, if nothing else, right?
00:53:15
Speaker
Right. That's Aronson and Weah and Berhalter. Like they haven't really shown that. I'm hoping like they could provide a plus in this game, but it, it might not be. So also like, don't go to pens.
00:53:27
Speaker
Do not get Belgium and Thibaut Courtois into pens against Matt freeze. Like you've got to just brute force, kill this game and then run harder and defend it. Like how can you watch the Belgium Senegal game and and think that you feel safe about anything anymore?
00:53:44
Speaker
But also, how can you watch the Belgium-Sanagall game and not think we can run these guys off the midfield? right like I think there's positive signs for that game as well. It's going to be so, so good. it is It's the game for the U.S., right? It's the test, and and they win this, and they're in the quarterfinals, and you're believing in everything. You get battling back. It's going to be so, so good. i I, for one, cannot wait, and I know that I am far from alone in that opinion.
00:54:07
Speaker
Look, like at the end of the day, United States, Bosnia, if it came very clear for everyone watching that the United States should win that game. Yeah. When's the last time you've had this like full on dread for the Netherlands game and then the the Belgium game from 2014? So like it's it's it's going to be awesome stuff.
00:54:28
Speaker
So, so good. And then the round of 16 will close on Tuesday with another pair of games. Argentina, Egypt to open it up. mean, Argentina survived. Egypt won on penalties. There's no rest difference here.
Argentina vs. Egypt: Strategy and Key Players
00:54:40
Speaker
Controlled environment in Atlanta will probably help Argentina. I think they are slightly deeper. i think there's a lot of questions about how they come out of that Cape Verde game. A weird early kickoff. Could there be some changes here to this Argentina team? Maybe with an eye towards further on, maybe with the idea that their middle, you know, 12 to 17 guys can hang within Egypt.
00:55:03
Speaker
think the lineup here for Argentina is going to be pretty interesting as well. And the approach to this game, what lessons are learned from Cape Verde, if any. Right. It's a weird place to start. I think Scaloni needs some more dynamism, but Ejif don't really play a way that scares you. Salah's not 100%, and you're only circling like one guy on the field, Marmush Dynamism, Zico. Yeah, but...
00:55:33
Speaker
I think you're kind of doing more of a defensive setup and a low event setup for Scaloni and just saying, we'll grime and then you have to do with Messi. And I just like Cape Verde couldn't lose him or they they couldn't hang with him for 90 for the whole half. They lost him once.
00:55:53
Speaker
Honestly, I think this Egyptian like back line is going to struggle to contain him. Like, I just I don't feel good about it. And if you're basically saying, and then like, I think it's dangerous to say this, but like Cape Verde did bits and it worked. I don't know that Egypt are going to do bits because we've kind of seen Egypt's level get found out at this tournament. They dominated New Zealand. They struggled with Australia.
00:56:17
Speaker
Argentina are more than Australia are from a defensive perspective, right? Even without maybe leggy midfield players. Right. The way to beat Argentina is to get their midfield uncomfortable and tired and chasing the ball.
00:56:31
Speaker
And I just don't think the Egypt pivot here is good enough or physical enough to do that. Egypt swarm in numbers, but Argentina love that. Like Argentina will just turn it into a little bit of chaos and pinball and try to press you out of the game for 30 minutes. Right. Can Egypt survive to a point where there's subs to hurt DePaul and McAllister? Right.
00:56:52
Speaker
it doesn't feel like they're built like that team, right? The way Egypt wins this game is a throwback. Salah is healthy and he's like destroying the the Argentine left back over and over again. He hasn't really been an issue.
00:57:04
Speaker
And I think it's interesting here as well. The biggest question I have in the Egypt 11, right? You talked about the pivot ah of Atia and Fatih. I think you're looking at those guys and questioning that a bit. Egypt might be in a pickle at left back here. So, so Hafez started at left back against Australia.
00:57:18
Speaker
That was after Fatih went out injured it in the last group stage game. And then Hafez went off injured. And so they were playing Trezegate at left back at the end of the game against Australia. Are they going to have to improvise something? Right. Like,
00:57:31
Speaker
Is Rabia going to get pushed out left and in Good Ibrahim? They'll obviously get Hossam Abelmegen back in this game. he played it against Egypt as well. There's been some questions with what's happening on the back line. But if they're improvising at left back, that's the spot of the pitch that Argentina have to be circling.
00:57:49
Speaker
100%. that's Almada, maybe, right? Yep. This is the overlap. Look, they need to get something from Alvarez at some point in this game, right? And this is an area where he could go find the ball and cut in on his right foot from the left and get shots. I think you like that.
00:58:05
Speaker
um Look, At some point, is Scaloni going to have to play a winger? does he need to like Who else can he call here? Give me some some names. I know we know the names, but like tell the people, like what should he what buttons could he press here? Maybe Egypt is a level, but like I do think there's a game where Egypt bunker, bunker, bunker, and you're looking at some of these guys to do what he didn't do against Cape Verde.
00:58:26
Speaker
Yeah, so like Nico Gonzalez is probably a guy who's ah a winger in name that that you could come and play. You've got the Simeone question. I think that was a player a lot of people wanted to see against Cape Verde. Does Nico Paz give you something in that kind of role? Are you are you pushing Almada out wider instead of kind of being more in the middle? Valentin Barco could maybe give you something in a midfield run overlapping wide.
00:58:52
Speaker
There are players there, but we said this on on the podcast where where we recapped the round of 32 the last day. There's no Angel Di Maria walking through that door and that just makes Argentina that bit more compressed.
00:59:04
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's a weird shape for them. Look, the the one thing also is that you watch what Australia did against Egypt and it was the physicality. I think this is a big game for Argentina's center backs and midfield to try to like hurt them on set pieces yeah and recycled set pieces and runs over the top.
00:59:25
Speaker
It might not be pretty for Argentina, but I think you just kind of like meat grind them, meat wall them a little bit, right? You struggled with Harry Sudar. Yeah, he's tall and everyone else.
00:59:36
Speaker
Good luck against Cootie Romero and Lissandra Martinez. I thought that was such a ah smart thing that Argentina did and they can come back to that well. I think the term would be ah asado pared is how we would refer to it. Thank you. The meatball down here in Buenos Aires. Egypt, I also don't think, have the legs and the fitness that Cape Verde did, which I think was really a problem for Argentina. I don't know that Egypt have that, that they can trouble Argentina.
00:59:59
Speaker
They don't. And the Salah thing is ah is a big part of that. like The guy's not 100% healthy. And at the end of the day, like we we probably should have said this on the the last podcast, I think Egypt has to be punished for taking 120 minutes to get through Australia. Now, Argentina also went 120 minutes to get through Cape Verde. But I think you get them out of Miami, they'll feel they'll feel like they're the more fit team. Unless we're wrong, right? We could be wrong, but I i don't feel like that's a plus for Egypt. Yeah.
01:00:26
Speaker
So it's an interesting one for Argentina. Can they keep marching forward? Look, the questions have been asked, obviously, so far, but the path forward just keeps kind of making you think that this team can just kind of keep going and can maybe build into something more. Maybe they get some of these guys fresher as the game goes. Argentina would love, love to be two, three goals up an hour into this game. That would be exactly what the doctor would order here so that then you can kind of use the the end of this game to reset. I think there's reason to believe that that could happen. But look, it's the World Cup knockout state. There are very few blowouts when you get to this part. Argentina are not a team that have done that a lot in their World Cup run in 2022. And they obviously didn't start with one here either. and Egypt can be dangerous and and Argentina will have to be focused in on Marmouche.
01:01:11
Speaker
They have to take away Salah's left and then maybe late runners from somebody like Asher for maybe somebody coming up to the midfield. think that's where Egypt are going to look to try and hurt Argentina. We're going to try and win two on three back the other way.
01:01:23
Speaker
Basically, it's the shape of the game, you know. I think generally Egypt is playing that kind of shape and playing defensive. And Egypt will think pens. Egypt people will 100% think pens. That's just kind of what they do in knockout soccer. if you're listening yeah and you're familiar with CAF, think about what Egypt did in CAF kind of before this Lafron. This is what they do. So Argentina will have to solve it. But again, they just solve these kinds of problems. So i give them a pretty comfortable favorite here.
Colombia vs. Switzerland: Strengths and Tactical Strategies
01:01:50
Speaker
Then the last game, Amit, that we're going to talk about is Colombia-Switzerland. And I think this game gets a bit buried by Spain-Portugal, by Mexico-England, by obviously the U.S.-centric approach to to a U.S.-Belgium game, by even Brazil-Norway.
01:02:05
Speaker
This is a really good round of 16 game between two teams that I think have, in the case of Switzerland as this tournament has gone on, and in the case of Colombia throughout this tournament, really impressed us. And this is a great curtain capper for the round of 16.
01:02:21
Speaker
this is a peak World Cup round of 16. This is exactly the level for two of these teams. One of these teams is a top 18. One of them isn't. How do you know? You have to find out. And I think they're both very, very close to each other. i think coming into this tournament, I thought Colombia was a touch better. And I think Switzerland have shown that they can turn this game into...
01:02:41
Speaker
just a tough, tough game for both teams. And I don't think anyone's going to be happy in this game. think this is a very defensive game between two defensive teams that are trying to attack with less. And it's kind of a ah star off. Like, i like, yeah, the narrative is that, but I do think like the on the field thing is Diazman zombie.
01:03:00
Speaker
Go ahead. Win me the game. Right. Like and until the the subplot of that is who's willing to help the other guy with more numbers. And if you help and don't score, are you then vulnerable to the other team doing that? So I do think it's just going to be a lot of three on six, four on six type game. Right.
01:03:20
Speaker
Do either of these managers feel like they're trying to expose themselves in that way? I don't think so. No, I don't think so. But I think Columbia have a bit more in the help category if that's what they want. Right. I think a player like Thomas Rodriguez, who who sat the whole second half ah of the game against Ghana, I think he could be big here. The loss of John Cordova, I think is significant. Luis Suarez played well against Ghana, but there's a reason why he wasn't starting.
01:03:44
Speaker
Is the running of of John Arias going going to help to to kind of spread out the Switzerland side? I think it's it's very, very interesting from that aspect. But Manzambi has lifted the rest of his Swiss teammates as well, right? We've seen the best from Briar Lombolo now. Vargas has been good. So can Switzerland use that to trouble Colombia and ask questions of them?
01:04:06
Speaker
hundred percent. And it's a tough, tough game because also Munoz is in the spot of marking Monzambi on that side. And one thing, though, and that's where I think it's really interesting from Néstor Lorenzo, because you look to what they did against Portugal. They left Munoz on the bench to start that game. They went more defensive with Santiago Arias. Does he run that back? I think that's a very interesting wrinkle here.
01:04:27
Speaker
That would be a great little wrinkle. And generally in my mind, I'm like, you don't sit a player like Daniel Munoz. You need 90 minutes of a guy. That's your best. One of your best guys. You got to play him.
01:04:38
Speaker
Does Murat Yakin move Manzambi around? He was on the right against Canada or or Bosnia. Then he kind of shifted now to a left winger and now he's just a striker. Like, I think Yakin's got some more wrinkles that he could do. I'm not saying they're better, but he can surprise a little bit more. Switzerland could be a little more amorphous.
01:04:59
Speaker
Columbia, I kind of know what they are. And the other thing is, half the battle stopping Monsambi here is the midfield three, whoever they are, have to stop Granit Xhaka and whoever, maybe it's Remo Froiler right next to him from...
01:05:14
Speaker
picking passes and having time on the ball. Switzerland, you do not want to let them settle possession. If you do, yeah, they can have it back there, but they can't ping those long balls. They cannot find Vargas and Manzami one-on-one. And the way you stop that is by getting into the midfield teeth.
01:05:31
Speaker
This is an ultimate li litmus test. Do you think do you think Columbia can and can hold up against the Switzerland midfield? I do. I think what what theyve seen what we've seen from their midfield, I think you feel really confident about that. Puerta and lama puer in particular has been really, really good. such a key player in this game. He's been so good. And so if Puerta is just kind of running things in the midfield, you limit that time, then you're kind of maybe forcing Switzerland to a bit more of a bunker counter strategy. And that's where I think the Munoz question is interesting. But the Munoz question is also very interesting because you know who the Swiss fullback is on the side where Munoz could be crashing in.
01:06:06
Speaker
It's Ricardo Rodriguez. And I think you kind of want to try and take advantage of that. You have to. That is the, if both teams are blocked up, that is the weakest defender on the field for Columbia to, to, to go at. And so Puerta and Munoz, can you get that overload? Can you get that cross? Right. um And If there's not space, who's more likely to to kind of give you that moment? how i mean, you you touched on it. How much can you play James? I'm really unsure to whether or not he belongs in this game or not.
01:06:38
Speaker
Well, then it's also really interesting because if you don't play James, then you've got the branch decision of to go for a James-like player you play Juan Fernando Quintero, or do you go for a midfield leg player and you play Richard Rios, who is the guy who came on for James Rodriguez in that Ghana game, and then Quintero came on later. And so do you maybe set yourself up more?
01:07:01
Speaker
You say, all right, we're not going to play the luxury of Rodriguez. We're going to play R SDS Suarez up top. And we're going trust that Rios, Puerto and Lerma is going to win us the midfield. And those guys, plus the guys behind them are going make it that there's just nothing for Switzerland because that's what we saw them do against Ghana.
01:07:17
Speaker
Is Arias starting on the right wing here? Well, yeah. So then he think I think he's your nominal right winger, right? But Kalimia also do a lot of things where they cross over and they weave and they mix. And Diaz is obviously stagging on the left wing, but Arias can make those incisive runs.
01:07:34
Speaker
Or is it um like there's a lot of interesting decisions for how Nesta Lorenzo wants to approach this and how attacking he wants to be from the go. 100%. And i you know we said Munoz, we said Puerta.
01:07:46
Speaker
Arias can attack Rodriguez too, right? Make him defendants base. The other thing here is i think Switzerland have a lot of quality, but center backs for center backs, Akanji and Alvedi versus Lukumi and Sanchez...
01:08:00
Speaker
I've been really impressed with Davison Sanchez this tournament. He has been a key player. You got to hang with him. Who's better, Mbolo or Suarez? ah A great question. They're two different kinds of players, right?
01:08:11
Speaker
So it's kind of lined up that like... they're not exactly the same team, but they're two teams that I think to me have the same questions in this game. This to me feels like a classic low event slime ball. There's going to be half chances. Who takes the half chance? And then after that, who can punch back? And a think it's kind of a one-to-one actually kind of game. And maybe it's a banger here. Like, I don't know between Suarez and Mbolo.
01:08:37
Speaker
I don't know between Diaz and Manzabi. I don't know between Arias and Vargas. So like... It's just really, really finely poised. We also saw David Machado start against Portugal, where I think Lorenzo went a bit more defensively. That was in favor of Johan Mojica. So what does he choose to do at fullbacks, I think is really, really important. And then, yeah, the James Rodriguez, Juan Fernando Quintero, Richard Rios question, who takes that spot in the starting lineup is, I think, really, really good. And then...
01:09:07
Speaker
Camilo Vargas kind of hangs over this for Columbia. I don't think he's been very good in goal. he hasn't really been tested. I don't know that I feel super confident. This could be the type of game where that rears its ugly head, despite how good the center backs and the midfielders have been.
01:09:22
Speaker
yeah I think you give a slight edge to Koble for Switzerland in the goalkeeper matchup. And you look at the set piece matchup too. Going to give a slight tilt to the team with Davinson. Yeah, like he's been a really good threat. And the delivery, I think you have ra you do have Rodriguez and Xhaka. So it's going to be some big but guys on both sides. But I think Colombia have kind of been lurking as a team that can play a low event game state and and set piece. Switzerland are also in that mold, but I i buy Colombia. I'm shading this one like 52-48 ultimately. Like this game can go a lot of ways. There's a lot of talent on both sides.
01:09:57
Speaker
I think generally I've been more impressed by Columbia. I'm going to hang my hat on Columbia 0-0 Portugal, but kind of kick Portugal's butt in a tie. And then I'll go to Switzerland...
01:10:09
Speaker
Yeah, it was impressive against Algeria, but also what were you doing against a weak group? Maybe not looking as impressive as you could have, but it's the Monzambi team is different than the non-Monzambi team. And so the sample size is smaller. So Switzerland have, i think, things that we don't necessarily even know, wrinkles that Murat Yakin can find.
01:10:28
Speaker
You kind of know what Columbia is going to be here. You know what they can kind of, their default gear is going to be. So it's going to be physical. It's going to be grimy. This thing could be pens too.
01:10:39
Speaker
God, it's going to be so much fun. This entire round of 16 is going to be so good. And
Podcast Promotion and Upcoming Content
01:10:44
Speaker
as we press publish on this podcast, it will probably have already kicked off with Canada Morocco. Amit and I will be here throughout it all. We'll have Saturday and Sunday recaps coming on Sunday night. We'll recap all four of those games and it will be daily on Monday and Tuesday.
01:10:57
Speaker
We cannot wait to simply sit back, pop the popcorn and enjoy the round of 16. We know that you here, our listeners are feeling that well. as well if you'd like to support us at the world cup after dark you can do so at patreon.com slash wcad three dollars a month gets you access to subscriber only content and you can find all of our shows recaps previews the whole kit and caboodle at spotify apple podcast or wherever you like that kit and caboodle you like that mention there yeah it's always a fun little phrase That's it for us on today's show. We will be back with our weekend recap on Sunday night. Enjoy the games. No, really enjoy the games. They're going so good. This is why we do it. These are the games we look forward to.
01:11:37
Speaker
And we will talk to you guys soon. As always, thanks for listening.