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WCAD 4-45: Semifinal Preview
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Austin and Amit tackle a delicious set of Semifinals, starting with France-Spain, before moving to what promises to be a legendary clash between Argentina and England.
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Transcript
2026 World Cup Semifinals: Pathways and Predictions
00:00:01
Speaker
down to four teams at the 2026 World Cup. And if you think all all the way back to last December and the draw ceremony, the village people were there, presidents of the host nations pulled balls out of pots, and there were a lot of draw constraints that at the time set the path that we are on today for these semifinals.
Tournament Structure and Semifinal Excitement
00:00:23
Speaker
And if you'll remember, FIFA said that all four of the top-ranked teams were Argentina, Spain, France, and England would be drawn into four separate knockout round paths so that if those four teams all won their groups and all kept advancing, they would then meet in the semifinals and they could not meet before the semifinals.
00:00:46
Speaker
run all that time from December until now. We've had a whole World Cup. We've had ups. We've had downs. And Amit Malik, we have those top four teams now meeting in the World Cup semifinal.
00:00:58
Speaker
Was it destiny? Did we need to do the entire tournament up to this point? We did. We did. We had to to to get through the tests for these teams, and some of them tested more than others.
Underdogs vs. Favorites: The Thrill of Football
00:01:10
Speaker
It's not so inevitable as it feels right now, right? Just think back to to Argentina in particular, or even England at the Azteca, but...
00:01:18
Speaker
I think it's what FIFA wanted. I think the people are very happy to have it, unless you're fan of those teams that got dumped. But ah what a delight for for football. And like, yeah, you know, we we love our stories. We love our underdogs. We love Cinderella's. And I think that's a good part of tournaments.
00:01:33
Speaker
But this is modern soccer, right? These teams are trying as hard as ever to proof themselves, to insulate themselves from the bounces that ah strike you down in international football and so credit to them and now we kind of just get to the twilight zone of the semi-finals and finals we're like there's you can't bounce proof because the other team is just as good as you and so that the margins here are so so fine this is what we live for we're very very excited and the other thing is like
00:02:09
Speaker
At this point, everyone kind of knows
Semifinal Focus: Margins and Details
00:02:11
Speaker
the teams, right? What we're going to talk about in this podcast today, we're going to get into it. You probably thought about it. You probably read other people talking about it. We're going to say the same things. But every little margin matters here. And that's definitely what we believe at World Cup After Dark. So we're going to try to get into every little, um you know, nook and cranny that we can and see what pops out.
00:02:32
Speaker
You started with every little and I was ready to finish with Nook and Cranny and that's where you got eventually. We're on the same wavelength. We've been talking too much throughout this tournament. It's the World Cup After Dark semifinal preview show. I'm Austin Miller. As previously mentioned, he is Amit Malik. So it's the four best teams in this tournament. I think you and I are generally in agreement about that.
00:02:50
Speaker
I think the teams that have been left along the way, you could make cases for some to be in the conversation. and maybe some based on tournament performance you could almost have ahead of Argentina. But these were the top four seeded teams going into this tournament.
00:03:04
Speaker
These were the teams that had the four best odds to win the tournament. I don't think it's any major surprise that these are the four best teams that are here.
Semifinal Pairings Analysis: France vs. Spain
00:03:11
Speaker
As you said, it's been tests. Some of them have been tested more than others. Some of them have gone to extra time more than others. But here we are.
00:03:18
Speaker
And I think the interesting thing here, Amit, is I think we have teams one, two, three, and four, but I think you and I are probably both in agreement that these semifinals, based on what we've seen in this tournament, might be paired off one, two, and three, four.
00:03:34
Speaker
I think so. I agree with you. And both of us on our preview podcast picked a France-England final. We did. And we're going to do a whole podcast here. And it's not because England was the second best team. I think it's because we saw that this side of the bracket had Spain and France on it. And it's just ah a quirk of it, right? Like, it just happened to be that way. I do think Spain are better than England.
00:04:00
Speaker
Will we get to find that out? Maybe, but if we don't, we'll never we'll never actually know. So we just have to go off of how we feel right now. Maybe we'll get it in a third place game.
Tactical Setups: France vs. Spain
00:04:10
Speaker
Oh, right, right. And then it could be for a third. That's, oh, don't s sleep on that, right? That'd be a little funny, disappointing for both teams.
00:04:17
Speaker
But I think, yes, I think France is the best team and Spain are close. And then England are
00:04:26
Speaker
Weird, weird team to evaluate. And Argentina, I think, are very clearly the fourth best team here. But they're riding the vibes and they've got messy and they've had that, you know, softest path, which has gotten them here. So to your point, like, could you make a case for someone else being better?
00:04:44
Speaker
Maybe Portugal, maybe Brazil, maybe Morocco, maybe. Neither those teams are here, right? And Norway is the one who beat Brazil. And so we're just not going to know the answers. But as we get into it, right, both of these games, as we start with the odds, no one's more than a 60% favorite. So even then that goes to the talent, like Argentina are not so far off it. Spain is not so far off it. These are winnable games either way. And all you're trying to do is juice the coin flip margins by 10%. That's the name of the game at this point.
00:05:15
Speaker
And it's so interesting because, as you alluded to, the margins here in both of these games, well, maybe more in France, Spain than in England, Argentina, which we'll get to second. The margins here feel so slim and you get to knockout round football and you get to high level international football, which is something we don't see very often, right? This is a podcast that you and I do.
00:05:36
Speaker
And for 90% of this podcast, we're talking about the other end of international football, right? We're digging through is Indonesia better than Bolivia? You know, like ah where's the fourth best CONCACAF team in comparison to like the seventh best Asian team.
00:05:50
Speaker
And those are fun questions for you and I to do. And I think you and I enjoy doing that, but it's not often that we get to sit down and say, all right, who is actually the best team
Spain's Possession vs. France's Counterattack
00:06:00
Speaker
in the world? And it's, you know, a European championship semifinal and final, and it's a FIFA world cup semifinal and final. And outside of that,
00:06:07
Speaker
We're not getting these types of matchups. and And that's why I think you've kind of seen UEFA really rejigger their qualification process, which is something we'll get to in another show at a long time down the road to try and get more of these matchups, to put more of the energy into the international game outside of these big major tournaments. But here we are.
00:06:24
Speaker
These are the matchups that we have. And France, Spain, let's start there. I mean, it's Tuesday. It's a Tuesday afternoon, and it might be one of the most anticipated international matches in a long time because France are the undisputed favorite in this tournament. They've been the undisputed favorite. I think they've clearly been the best team here, right? There's no blemish of a nil-nil draw against Cape Verde starting their campaign that you have on the Spain side.
00:06:50
Speaker
But in Spain, I think you have a team that might be genetically engineered to make life difficult for France, right? What are the things that we don't know about France? We don't know what happens when that four attacking players, when those four attacking players don't create or don't find success. What happens next? We don't know, but Spain might be the team that allows us to find that out.
00:07:17
Speaker
And it also might show us what happens when France just can't recover possession at will. Because Spain is a team that is uniquely built to just hold the ball and make France chase. And once France chased so much, they might get out of position and that might be an advantage. This is so finely poised.
00:07:35
Speaker
It's very finely poised. And that's the place to start with this game. Everyone says it, right? Can Spain use the ball to keep it away from France? Is the midfield not able to get it back?
00:07:48
Speaker
And it's so fascinating because it's more than just keep the ball, right? Part of keeping the ball is the press and winning the ball where Spain win it. Spain's defense has been excellent this tournament on the strength of their counter press. And it's a very...
00:08:03
Speaker
you know, longstanding idea in these possession systems. Like Guardiola did this whole six seconds or less thing, right? Then you get a guy like Luis Enrique in Spain, and then you get Hansi Flick. And even he's influenced by these other German guys like Klopp. And it's all about smothering the ball as soon as you lose it and chasing it down.
00:08:23
Speaker
and The issue with the counterpress, and even if you win it back nine out of 10 times and you're keeping the ball and you're locked it in, what happens on the 10th time when the guy who's loose is Kylian Mbappe, right? And so this is the ultimate, ultimate litmus test for do you run the counterpress as aggressively as you've been running it or do you have to bake some caution? And we talk about genetically engineered, like Spain is built to play this way.
00:08:54
Speaker
they are not wired to back down. And so this is a great question of
Game-Changers and Historical Context
00:09:00
Speaker
international soccer, risk avoidance versus what is your natural disposition? What is your mentality? What are your players like to do? And let's start with, this is a very Barcelona side, right? Luis de la Fuente is, and don't know if we know his ideas necessarily. He's much more of a, he takes his players and lets them do what they do best guy. So this to me is like,
00:09:25
Speaker
what does Luis De La Fuente want in this game? Does he want to fully go forward and break France at attack? Or is he going to be a little more cautious?
00:09:37
Speaker
I think you and I would think he would just, he's going to do what he does, but like, That one out of 10, and it might be more than one out of 10, is terrifying, isn't it? And on the other side, in Didier Deschamps, you have one of the most well-traveled international managers, right? He has stamped his identity on this France team for so long. They are, I think, standing on the cusp of being one of the best international teams of all time. Certainly one of, right? We don't necessarily talk like this international football, but if you think of what...
00:10:08
Speaker
a dynasty would be right if you think if you think about this from an American sports perspective or from a big club football perspective France are on the precipice of making three straight World Cup finals and potentially winning two of them and the only one they lost was on penalties but In that run, they haven't won the European Championship, and part of that was because of a matchup in 2024 against this Spain team. And so I think that's a good place to start.
00:10:35
Speaker
And I think another good place to start here is this might be the best international football matchup we've ever seen. Evo ratings certainly think so. Right. the It's like ah a player's thing. There's definitely a case for just name the players on the field and you go, dang, this is good. But just the way you described it, this is a historic all-time team and the team that beat them is here again. And both of them are close to fully firing strength, right? It's a lot like your Cavs Warriors from the mid-2010s in basketball, especially the way you look back and think about all all the players there. And so we just...
00:11:10
Speaker
to me, this feels like a super, super high level club game. And in a way that international football so rarely feels like that. um
Strategic Dynamics: France and Spain
00:11:20
Speaker
So I just, there's so much we're going to learn about, i think, De La Fuente in Spain in this game. And DeChamp,
00:11:26
Speaker
I feel like he's more of a known commodity to us, right? But does he still have a wrinkle for us? is he His general move in his career has been to be defensive, right?
00:11:38
Speaker
hes He's been playing four and six, four attacking guys, six defending guys. Is he scared of France or of Spain when he sees this? In 2024, right? He played seven defensive guys. Defensive. He went 4-3-3 and his midfield in that game was Choumeni, Rabiot, and N'Golo Kante.
00:11:57
Speaker
And so like... you you You know what his move might be. we're Just to to think about the lineups, he might do that. Is De La Fuente also going to do that? And do do we get a cagey game? like That's the the first place to think about the game is, are we are we headed towards a control-off, a more stalemate-y type game because of the respect of both sides? That is like...
00:12:18
Speaker
you know, you watch every major tournament, this is what we expect at this stage. Or is there something brewing in here of perhaps the the PSG Barca underlying DNA is like two teams that are just going to go at it. I feel like that's too wishful thinking, but the talent is there to just like...
00:12:37
Speaker
unload a cascade of bangers. So let's, let's start with that. Let's start with that question. And I think let's tackle France first, because it feels very clear, right? The decision for Deschamps, if there is a decision, and there might not even be a decision, you might not even be thinking about this is does he stick four, six, or does he play three, seven, right? And what we mean by that, and I think you explained it well, he's got four primarily attacking players and six players behind them, whose main function in his system is to defend and take control of the game and get the ball, progress the ball forward to those four attacking players.
00:13:10
Speaker
So does he want to change that equation? And when you look at what France has done so far in this tournament, can you really justify taking one of those guys off? Or can you control this game with those four guys on? Because DeSombe is getting defensive contributions from some of them, or maybe enough of them to justify keeping all four of them in the lineup to start this game.
00:13:33
Speaker
Douay has been really good defensively. And we've talked about the defensive work rate upgrades of a Douay, of a Dembele because of their work at PSG. And obviously Mbappe has been bought in. And so I think he feels good about them defensively. And also what he probably thinks is even if it's we maybe cede a little control, even if we defend, even if we're pinned a little in,
00:14:00
Speaker
we will take being the antagonistic counterside. We'll take you working really, really hard to get up the field against us and living with Mbappe and Dwey and Debeli in transition.
00:14:12
Speaker
And the whole point of four, I think the answer has been a lease centrally at the 10. The second he's gotten the ball and had three guys in front of him,
00:14:23
Speaker
You can't really stop what he wants to do. You can't take it away, right? You could take away two things generally, right? You can't take away three options. And that's kind of been the story of this tournament at a high level. So I feel like we're we're just, we're saying that this is a thing he's done and he did it against Spain last time, but it would be really weird for him to do it again or or to do that this time.
00:14:48
Speaker
Because his four has been that good. And like you said, Alise has been the key to it. And I think we've seen his distribution side. think we haven't seen his goal scoring side, but that can be there, right? It could. Yeah, it could show up at any point. And that could completely change this game if you're getting goal contribution from him as well. From the big picture side here for Spain, like you said, I think we generally think of Spain as a very...
00:15:13
Speaker
principled international side in that they're going to play what they're going to play and they they don't really care about what happens on the other side. So is there anything here leading into this game that leads you to believe that De La Fuente maybe pivots or is it we're going to stick with largely what we've done? That's probably going to lead to us controlling the ball. That's also probably going to lead to these French guys running at us at some point.
00:15:37
Speaker
We're ready for it. Based on De La Fuente's previous track record of him, he's a guy that rides with his guys. He likes his pet players. He likes who he trusts. He doesn't want to shake it up. I went back and watched the 2024 highlights. I'm sure other people have. You know he started at that game? It was Jesus Navas at right back. Like an extremely washed former winger, Jesus Navas. And that to me speaks to his thought. Like,
00:16:07
Speaker
He doesn't think about the defensive one-on-one transition matchups. His whole mindset is, i like these guys because what they do on the ball, and I like the patterns I generate with these guys. So, like, are you worried about Pedro Poro one-on-one against Dewey?
00:16:22
Speaker
I am. I don't think De La Fuente is. Are you worried about the midfield balance of Rodri, Padri, and Olmo? ah He didn't start Padre against ah the the Belgium in the quarterfinal, but was it a a minutes thing? Was it a rest thing?
00:16:41
Speaker
They're best when Padre's on the field. Ruiz is a little bit taller, and I think that could be a secret X factor on set-piece defense in terms of France have more bigger bodies in Spain. but We'll come back to that, but I guess i I said it there. So that's one where I don't know, but either way, like...
00:16:59
Speaker
he's not going to swap in more athleticism into that midfield. Like the player to me that I would think about is Marco Cirente. He could put him at right back. He does that role at Atletico Madrid.
00:17:09
Speaker
um He'd be a much more defensive player than Poro, but then you've kind of lost that Poro-Lamin-Yemal synergy that's been so key to Spain's attack. The other player here that like,
Predicting Outcomes: Tactical Setups
00:17:20
Speaker
I think is the biggest red flag circle or in entry, interesting point for Spain is Pau Cubarsi, right?
00:17:28
Speaker
Really good center back. Laporte next to him has been really good. Guy left Manchester City and went to Saudi, I believe, and has been... We don't know exactly who's up to He's looked good this tournament.
00:17:40
Speaker
Koubarsi, when he plays at Barca and in the Hansi Flick high line, is the guy who gets caught out. He got caught out against Atletico Madrid. Again, he is just not as fully developed as a pure athlete as some of these players he's playing against. And I am terrified of Koubarsi versus Mbappe one-on-one.
00:17:59
Speaker
I just am in space. it it smells like a red card. That's just what Barca have done in big games. And I know this is not Barca PSG or Barca Madrid or whatever, but I'm so worried about that.
00:18:12
Speaker
De La Fuente will never take Kou Barca out of this game. He's just not going to do it, right? He's options. He's got Garcia, another Barcelona center back. He's got Pabil, an Atletico Madrid center her back. I think Pabil is maybe a touch better of an athlete, but he's just going to ride there. And so like the answer in a long way of thinking about this question No, i don't I don't think De La Fuente going to do anything. And I think Spain has been very upfront outwardly in their mentality.
00:18:36
Speaker
Lamine Yamal has been saying, like, we we don't care about France. We're not scared. De La Fuente says, we're not scared. The other players, too. They just think they're better than France. And I i admire that.
00:18:47
Speaker
But it's like... Don't you feel like this is just asking for trouble here? They might not be scared, but we could be scared for them, right? Like, we look at France, and I think it's a scary proposition. Quickly on the port, left Citi, went to Saudi Arabia, and then came back to Athletic Bilbao. So he's been at Athletic Bilbao for this last season, just to clean that part up. And then also, we're looking at a guy like Alex Baena on the left wing and his combination with Cucurea, which, again...
00:19:13
Speaker
Is that the best that Spain can put out on the left? No, because you're you're probably looking at a guy like Nico Williams, who also could be ah a quote unquote X factor here, right? Can they get Nico Williams for more than 15, 20 minutes in this game? If they can't, I think we expect it to be by Anna and Cucurea who have created a pretty good partnership there, but that's a pretty good partnership in the games that Spain have played so far. This is another level.
00:19:38
Speaker
It is. Baena is good player, and he is not as dynamic as a take-on threat as Nico Williams. And that's where you want to stretch teams two ways. The issue, as you're saying, is France's right-back Jules Koundé is maybe one of the best 1v1 defensive right-backs in the world. He's kind of a center-back in a right-back's body. He just almost never gets beat when he's in position. Sometimes he he gets caught tracking back very, very rarely. And honestly, the strength has been Kukurea.
00:20:07
Speaker
But as we're saying, Dembele has done the work this tournament. So as long as Dembele tracks back, I don't feel like that side is a win for France. So really, you know where Spain is going.
00:20:18
Speaker
Everyone knows where Spain is going. It's Lamin-Yamal. And I think it's so interesting when you look at the Yamal matchup on Spain's right, France's left, we've talked so much about France's front four this tournament, right? We have spent ah literally probably hours on this podcast breaking down the effectiveness of the front four. We have mentioned in number only the six, right? Like we just always kind of refer to them. We say back six. yeah Yeah, it's just, ah, the front four is so good, the six is there, right?
00:20:46
Speaker
Is this the game where we actually have to dive in on what that six looks like and where, if there is any weakness, Spain will be looking to exploit, right? So you talk about Koundé at left back, right back, or excuse me, the the the matchup with Yamal on the Spanish right and the French left, right?
00:21:04
Speaker
That's where it feels like Spain are going to be looking to go. And that's where I think we have to dig into this French six. Yeah, this is where the the weakness is. And this is where Ken Poro overlap. Can you make if this is, let's say, Rabiot's side, if he's left center mid, is he the help defender that you're getting involved in the play with numbers?
00:21:26
Speaker
Look, I think it's Luka Dean. He's kind of been the guy for Deshaun. Teo Hernandez is available. I think both of them are not going to be outclassed completely. But if Laminia Mall is fully firing, it's it's barbecue chicken type of mismatch. The issue is, Laminia Mall fully firing? And we're 20 minutes into the podcast. And this is perhaps the ceiling limiting factor from Spain being A-plus contender to A-minus contender. Because if in 2024,
00:21:56
Speaker
Man, you know who won them the game was Laminia Mall. He scores an incredible banger to tie the game at 1-1 because he's shooting from distance. He's a triple threat. Now I feel like he's kind of a one threat and that he can do the take on. But the final product, the shot, the cross has not really been there. He had a great moment with Poro, but...
00:22:16
Speaker
I think back to Laminimo's best game is Barcelona versus Inter in the Champions League last year when they get dumped. Barcelona get dumped. But he's just... Inter are sending two or three guys at him every time and it doesn't matter.
00:22:29
Speaker
That's what you can do when you're like 17 and you just have the dribbling stamina of you know a wonder kid. He doesn't look like that guy right now. And if he doesn't look like that guy, where can Spain get attacking juice against a France bloc? And the answer is...
00:22:47
Speaker
I don't know. It's like a shot from distance from Raji. It's a, you, you hope or your other ball, like create something, but he's gotta be the finisher here across even McConnell. You keep coming back to maybe this whole game comes down to Islam medium all ready to shoulder. Like, uh, I take him on 20 times this game.
00:23:05
Speaker
I win five of them decisively. And I put in three chances that one of them gets finished by Olmo or, or out the ball. And that's so interesting because that really kind of circles back to all the way in our preview podcast. That was our biggest question for Spain. And coming into this tournament, we didn't know what they would get from Yamal. It looks like he's 100% healthy, right? Like, I don't think there's any health concern. There's no minutes restrictions. Yeah. just finding that rhythm, getting back to that level that he's shown at club now has to show it for country might be the decisive question of this game, because that's going probably determine, i think you and I feel like Spain should be able to have possession here and keep possession and kind of
00:23:50
Speaker
have the ball in a way that France's opponents have yet to have the ball against them. Right. But whether that possession becomes incisive might depend on you all, or it just kind of comes to Spain trying to work these slick passing movements that against this France defense might come off once, but might not come off more than once. And you might need to score more than once to win this game.
00:24:12
Speaker
Correct. And The other player who scored a banger in 2024 was Danny Olmo. And so like, that's a guy who like, can you get a little bit of magic, right? Can, can he, if it's not Yamal, could it be him?
00:24:23
Speaker
The other guy could definitely be, you know, Nico Williams when he comes on in this game, as you said, he's the X factor there. So that's where what Spain's looking at. The other player who we go back to the big preview podcast all the way back, we said, Yamal, let's see, that's limiting factor. Rodri,
00:24:40
Speaker
I think he's lived up to his billing. he's yeah He's been as good as advertised. He's been at his maybe 95% of his best self. Now, this is a different story. Can anyone in a single pivot stop France? Can he stop Michael Alise? Can he stop everyone else?
00:24:56
Speaker
The counter press here, right? It kind of hinges on Padre, Olmo, and Rodri. And... I think one of Manchester City's weaknesses this season, why they were less effective in their title push, was that Rodri could not choke off transition in the Premier League when the athletes of the Premier League are running at you.
00:25:15
Speaker
The France athletes are as good as it gets in the world. I'm worried about him in this game. I'm worried about him and Koubarsi and Laporte, three on three versus whatever France numbers are.
00:25:26
Speaker
I don't like that for Spain. To me, that is the biggest thing I'm worried about in this game. And ah like Spain need to Spain need to avoid the French fifth gear in two ways. They need to get up to or they need to play such a sterile possession game. It's zero zero in France. Never get revved up. That's the other thing. We just don't know what happens when France chases a game.
00:25:50
Speaker
They have not chased a game at this tournament and they've really not chased a game outside of, right, the 2022 final against Argentina and then the Spain game in 2014. Like, that's the times that we've seen France chase in this cycle. And it's so fascinating because there are guys on the bench for France that we haven't really seen that you think like, all right, in a chasing... circumstance like these guys might come on and they might play a role. And I think that's really interesting. Like Ryan Turkey hasn't done a lot in this tournament for France, but chasing a game, you need a possession midfielder to maybe even add another to that four, right? He's a guy that you're probably looking at. And so I think that part of this is really interesting as well.
00:26:28
Speaker
And we kind of come back to, all right, so Jamal needs to be the danger man for Spain. Where are other potential danger points? And I kind of circle back to the guy who's been their danger man in their match one of the last two games, right? It's Mikel Marino off the bench.
00:26:42
Speaker
And so if Spain are down a goal, is that a button that Luis de la Frente presses earlier than he's pressed it? Or... Is this game Spain attempting to thread the needle of how can France hurt you if they have the ball? If France don't have the ball, they can't hurt you. And so can Spain hold possession enough to avoid those three-on-three runs coming back the other way? And if they can do that, can they keep this game sterile, stagnant, nil-nil, 1-1, whatever it is, and then can they just...
00:27:14
Speaker
Gas it for five minutes like they did against Portugal, like they did against Belgium. And could a guy like Mikel Moreno be key to that? Is that another path that De La Fuente has to success here? It's a tightrope to walk. You could try.
00:27:27
Speaker
It is. It's so fascinating to think about this game. There are lots of different angles it could go. It could be this, this you know, cagey control off. It could be a possession off. It could be a Spain has it and is waiting off.
00:27:42
Speaker
Could be a goals off. Like it could be just guys start scoring and then you have to start answering. And then we we get into some really fun Spots and another guy we got to mention off the bench for France is Jean-Philippe Mateta could be a second striker. Obviously, Barcola, if he doesn't start, I think it's going due. It could be something here, right?
00:28:01
Speaker
France also have legs at the fullbacks. that They don't even use like Maxence LaCroix and Malo Gusto. Like... They're also helpful players. So I think the depth, it feels like Spain has had the better depth, but because they've had to show it. Right.
00:28:14
Speaker
And so just other bits and bobs, like it's indoors. I think that helps Spain,
England vs. Argentina: A Storied Rivalry
00:28:20
Speaker
but also France hasn't played indoors. So they haven't even shown a gear. We don't know. Right. Right. youre First time this tournament, France are playing a climate controlled match. They also have not traveled really this tournament, right? They've been exclusively Philadelphia, MetLife, Boston. So the first time France have had to travel, but they're doing so to play in a controlled environment. You feel like that's probably going to help them.
00:28:42
Speaker
I think it's good for France to maybe get into that fourth or fifth gear when they need to. They just, they've been experts at managing the heat better than their opponents. They don't have to manage that. Deschamps, again, at some point he could let this team show up a gear that we just do not know how dangerous it looks. And then, you know, you always close out with other X factors. you got to look at the goalkeepers. Yep.
00:29:04
Speaker
Unai Simone has been good in the Spain shirt. dead Almost, you know, debunked. biffed it against Belgium with with two walks in the box. I think, you know, anyone who's watching a lot of soccer will probably tell you David Raya is a better goalkeeper.
00:29:18
Speaker
De La Fuente rides with this guy. So it's not even, it's not like a he should or shouldn't. It just is. Like, I don't think Raya is seeing the game. So, We that could be an area, right? If it's a tight, you know, on the 50 50 game, you spill one ball, you're in trouble. Right. And then we just like we don't know, like Mike Mignon, like where he's at. Obviously, I think he's a very good goalkeeper. I don't think he's a weakness, but like, is that ah is that something for for Spain and then set pieces? Right.
00:29:46
Speaker
I think you got to give edge to France just a little bit. Upamakano can win a header. And then if you go down the roster of like matchup four, five, six, France might have a taller guy at five or six, because
Tactical Preview: England's Midfield vs. Argentina
00:30:00
Speaker
especially if Spain play Pedri, Olmo, Yamal, Baena, like N.O. Yothra Ball, they're you're short in a spot. And that's where like, you know, look at Argentina finding Alexis McAllister on a header.
00:30:16
Speaker
Sometimes guy six on the set piece roster is the guy who you draw the playoff for. And so that's one thing I'm definitely worried about for Spain as well. And like you said, both these teams have very good defensive records, but we don't know how much we should buy into that defensive records because it doesn't feel like the defensive records are due to defensive performance here. They're due to possession-based dominance and attacking brilliance, which again, obviously counts towards that defensive records. But as far as the individual defenders are concerned, I think we're going to see these guys tested on both sides for both teams in a way that we haven't in this tournament. and i think that's a really exciting proposition.
00:30:53
Speaker
It really is. We're going to see some great box defending, like unless somehow France or Spain get up three in 30 minutes, there's going to be an onslaught from, from one of these teams at one point. And you're just going to see a super, super high level of attacking soccer. Really exciting. Yeah.
00:31:09
Speaker
If you're Spain and somehow things don't go well for you in this game, like they hit you on the counter, the only thing you you just can't panic, you cannot go down two. I think down one with 10 minutes to go, either team should feel really, really good about their chances to get something back against the other team's defense.
00:31:26
Speaker
So then my other question is, we know that goals change games and game states will change games. What happens if this game is level in the freezing point, right? What happens if this game is level in the 77th minute?
00:31:39
Speaker
What happens if this game is then level in extra time and we get you know past 100, 105, 110? Are either of these teams going to try to play to avoid penalties while opening themselves up just that bit more? Is there a side that you think...
00:31:53
Speaker
Will go to that gear at a level game state? Obviously, we know they'll both go to that gear if they're down and they're trailing and they need a goal. But if they're not, are we envisioning that or do we think that this would just kind of fizzle out for penalties?
00:32:08
Speaker
Oh, man, I don't know. We don't have DeChamp freezing point data from this World Cup. You have to think back to 2022. Look, I think Spain have shown like when it comes to the end of the game, they push, right? They they want to win. They want to use the ball.
00:32:24
Speaker
And I do think... We don't know the France depth, but I think the way the depth for both teams shapes is that Spain lean more into having the ball and attacking and more options and France lean more into legs and protecting and playing against the counter.
00:32:41
Speaker
obviously they can shift into chasing with a guy like Mateta, guy like Turkey. But generally, if they're not down, France are not going to change their game state. like That's not what Deschamps does. So I think you'd see Spain taking the front foot and France kind of waiting for a reactionary moment to break Spain committing. And so we could be wrong, right? Maybe Deschamps has finally said, we're going to go take it to to Spain and you're all you're all going to laugh. But it It feels like you can kind of see the shape of this game in your head. Everyone can kind of see it. It's just we don't we don't necessarily know where the moment might start with and who who has to respond.
00:33:19
Speaker
And that might
Strategies and Tactical Adjustments
00:33:20
Speaker
play into France's hands if it is Spain just edging that bit forward because... And those guys running back the other way. That's the scariest proposition in this match, right? For Spain is losing possession and having to go four on four, three on three, four on three against those French guys. It's so, so fascinating. all right. a bit We've talked about this game for nearly 20, 25 minutes.
00:33:40
Speaker
And there's one World Cup after-durk special that we haven't brought in yet. And it's not penalties. It's not take your chances. It's not margins. Except it is kind of margins. Because the referee for this game is going to be Ivan Bartone of El Salvador?
00:33:56
Speaker
Got to get CONCACAF. You thought you could escape CONCACAF World Cup ah without a little bit of that flavor. And the guy is just a character. the guy The guy knows the spotlight. And look, I don't think he's necessarily like an inherently worse ref than than other refs. I don't think that's the case. But I do think everyone's got to be on their best behavior. And like...
00:34:19
Speaker
Listen, we it's funny when we talk about these top European teams, we kind of ignore the dark arts a little bit more because we just go, oh, they're European. They're going to, you know, perfect ball manicured field. Like we're going to do that kind of stuff.
00:34:31
Speaker
There's going to be some mental games, right? And so can you work Barton a little bit? Got to be careful in what you say. Yeah. I don't know. What kind of element could he introduce to this match? I don't know what it is, but when we talk about you're looking to juice a coin flip 5% one or the other, Ivan Bartone making ivan barton making a interesting decision can absolutely juice this 5%. I have no idea which way it would be for, but like, that's absolutely something that I think we're going to have to consider with this match. And I, for one, am kind of shocked to see him at this stage, but it's going to be fun. And I'm looking forward to it. And as a purely neutral observer, I'm all for Cause it's going to make this game more fun.
00:35:14
Speaker
I agree. This should be everything you've ever wanted from a world cup semifinal. Are you leaning any differently than you were pre-tournament when you pick France to make the final here?
00:35:26
Speaker
I'm not as much as I love Spain and I love the cases. And I do think there are a lot of cases to me. If you want to be reductionist, I don't, I haven't seen it from Laminya mall to be at the level he needs for Spain to score enough goals to keep up with France. um Look 60, 40, like, you know, I say that I could be wrong. I think we, ah we all could be surprised by what happened, but I, I, I would be more careful and not be so idealistic against this France team. You're playing a historic, historic team. I think you've got to show them some respect. Now it's soccer, you know, it's a mentality sport.
00:36:06
Speaker
They wouldn't be Spain. If they said respect, they have to come out and, you know, have that swagger. Right. But I'm scared. I'm scared. I mean, who like I'm scared of France. I've seen what they've done. I'm very scared of France.
00:36:20
Speaker
I think I also, i look, I lean France before the tournament. I picked France to win the tournament. I have not seen anything to shake me off that position yet. I think France are the best team here, and I don't know that I think it's particularly close.
00:36:31
Speaker
I think this might be the best test they get. I'm very excited to see how they handle it. I would love to see France chasing a goal because I think that's just a game state that would be thoroughly
Potential Game Scenarios: England and Argentina
00:36:40
Speaker
enjoyable, but I do think France win this and I don't know. It might be something like three two There might be goals in this game. There might be chasing in this game. I, from a neutral perspective, certainly hope that there are. But again, I'm with you. I haven't been shaken off that France position so far. but I don't know that this is going to be a game that does it, but I think this might be the game that comes closest to doing it so far.
00:36:59
Speaker
Our other semifinal, Amit, England-Argentina. And it is ah semifinal that if maybe it's not the two best teams at this World Cup, I think it's one of the best storylines and it is one of international football's best historic rivalry and probably its best interconfederational rivalry, right? Its best intercontinental rivalry. When you talk England and Argentina-Argentina, It's history, right?
00:37:26
Speaker
All of these great World Cup moments happened in this game, in this matchup. But it's not a matchup that we've seen very often, but it feels like every time we've seen it, particularly at the World Cup stage, it's delivered. It's the first time these two teams will have played since 2005, which was a pre-World Cup friendly ahead of Germany 2006. It's the first time Lionel Messi in his historic Argentina career will have ever matched up against England. He was suspended for that friendly in 2005 after he famously got sent off in his debut Argentina appearance. And there's loads of World Cup history here, even if they've only met four times at the World Cup. So England won in 1966 en route to their only World Cup win in what here in Argentina is known as El Robo del Siglo.
00:38:10
Speaker
Argentina countered in 1986 in the quarterfinals when Argentina at the Azteca behind Diego Maradona with the hand of goal, hand of God goal and the goal del Siglo, right? The goal of the century. So if you're keeping track at home, that's two games already where we're mentioning of the century in recapping the game.
00:38:29
Speaker
Then in 1998 in the round 16,
00:38:31
Speaker
David Beckham sent off for England. Argentina win on penalties to advance. And then in 2002, it was redemption for Beckham when he scored a penalty in the 2002 group stage. And in that group stage, Argentina eventually crashed out. That of it is two for one side, two for the other by my count.
00:38:49
Speaker
Every game with legendary moments. This feels like it is a perfectly poised grudge match. And it might not be the most high-flying ELO-rated game at this World Cup.
00:39:01
Speaker
But the storylines are abundant. They are abundant. And the vibes are off the charts because both of these teams have just made an adventure out of it, right? Think of what everything England has had to do. Think of what Argentina has had to do. And they're both flawed. These are two flawed teams. They're they're good teams, but...
00:39:21
Speaker
it's just going to be messy, imperfect soccer and messy soccer. Also in Lino, messy, the greatest player of all time is this could be his last ride. Like that storyline somewhere in the top, whatever. And then there's all of England, like England making all these major tournament runs and never coming on with the hardware. And now you've got a chance to, to, to make a final again. And it's just the the craziest mentality team of, of this generation. And so Man, we are going to find out. We are going to find out. And we are going to to analyze this game. But I think the narrative due for this game is so fair because it just... You can't, like, undersell the century moment of it. Like, the vibes of this one is the centurion of the 21st century in its own way.
00:40:10
Speaker
These teams don't meet at the World Cup without something important happening, right? It just is not the case. In this game... feels so much in particular, like something important is going to happen. And it's like you said, right? Like you have England on one side who have not been to a world cup final in so long, who obviously have not won the world cup in so long, who have gotten so close for so long, first under Southgate and now for a first time under Thomas Tuchel, but standing in their way is like the mentality is vibes team of all vibes
00:40:42
Speaker
who simply will not die and it feels like to kill him you have to put a stake through the heart of this argentina team and just keep it there and nobody's been able to do that can this england team be the team to do it and like we are potentially looking at the last world cup game that matters in leno messi's illustrious career is that going to come in an elimination in his first ever matchup with england right i The storylines are just so good here.
00:41:10
Speaker
i think as we start to break this game down, as we look at what we will actually see on the pitch, but I think we can't put all of those storylines the side because i think they're all to play a role here because when it's England-Argentina, it does simply just mean more. But I think for me, i my biggest question in this game is probably...
00:41:29
Speaker
Can the Argentina midfield, which may or may not actually exist, can they survive against Jude Bellingham? Can they survive against Declan Rice if he's back healthy and can give England more than 45 minutes? Can they survive against Elliot Anderson? And if Lionel Scaloni sticks with the four guys that he started in the last two games, it might be death for Argentina and everything else might not matter because Jude Bellingham might just be unstoppable and that might be the only thing Thomas Tuchel needs.
00:42:00
Speaker
There's a lot of places to go. And certainly Jude's star performances here. i mean, if you're going to be reductionist in the first game, it's on Yamal's shoulders. Where's he at?
00:42:11
Speaker
Well, reductionist in this game is the best player. And this game is Jude Bellingham. And he has proven his himself. So you could you could start there and end there. But obviously not Yeah, look, Egypt bossed this Argentine midfield. That to me is the the thing you've got to look at. The way Egypt played through the pet press and kept the ball away.
00:42:33
Speaker
Cape Verde did not play through the press, but they had the athletes, right? And then even Switzerland down a goal for 40 minutes, played through this this press.
00:42:46
Speaker
I think these guys on the ball is not the issue, but in terms of it's a control game, Tuchel lives for control. I think he has zero issues asserting control of this midfield. We said it before.
00:43:00
Speaker
McAllister, DePaul, one's got to go. Scaloni knows that, doesn't he he? Can he afford to play both of them in this game? Especially if Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson and Jude Bellingham are on the field.
00:43:11
Speaker
You're just you're in trouble. You're you're in trouble of England being able to play through you and looking much more like dear Congo than Norway. And I think one of those guys has to go, but then you're asking, who are they going for? And this is where I think it gets really interesting for Argentina because the pivots all kind of lean either attacking, right? In Los Celso or Almada.
00:43:37
Speaker
Or they haven't played at all. If you're looking at some somebody like Ezekiel Palacios or maybe Valentin Barco or both in that they're both attacking and haven't played at all. A guy like Nico Paz.
00:43:48
Speaker
And so if you're taking out one of McAllister or DePaul, I think you and I both kind of feel like it should be DePaul based on what we've seen this tournament. Who are you putting in and what are you doing? Are you going with somebody like Almada? Are you trusting somebody like Execuel Palacios to come in and try and play a double pivot alongside Paredes?
00:44:08
Speaker
It's really interesting because we haven't seen it yet from Argentina. We thought they might learn their lesson from the Egypt game, and they simply didn't against Switzerland. They did it. And so if they do, they're just going to be defending against England's, you know, set up possession structure. If they don't, to me, it's a question of are you just accepting that role and bring on a guy for defense? Or are you thinking we want to press somehow? We want to disrupt England. We want to use the ball against England. In which case, i would go Almada and say, we're going to have the ball. We're going to be dangerous. We're going try to meet them on somewhat equal footing. We're going to run at them. Almada can run. He's a very, you know, got legs kind of guy and good on the ball.
00:44:49
Speaker
If not, I mean, pick your defensive specialist here. And what you really need is help to run for Messi. That's what DePaul was supposed to do. Because...
00:45:00
Speaker
I mean, look, Messi is amazing. Messi is incredible. He is everything. But all of your defensive issues cascade from 10 and 11, right? Like we we said this about Ronaldo. It's true about Messi. Now, Messi offers you a lot more, but you need someone in that spot to hurt you. And look, this has been the Gordon side, right?
00:45:16
Speaker
You look at you're going to sides or sides. This side, it's O'Reilly, Gordon. O'Reilly, Messi, one on one. We'll see. well You know, you you say we'll see for anyone. But on the other side, O'Reilly can get get up there. And Gordon, man, the guy's work rate has been immense, immense. You know he's going to track back.
00:45:35
Speaker
who's Who's here to help Messi's defensive work rate? um So in my mind, I feel like you need defense. As much as I want Omana, I just think if you try to comment Rice and Anderson on equal footing, like has McAllister or Enzo been good enough for you to feel that you can do that?
00:45:52
Speaker
No, they haven't. I didn't think Fernandes in particular was not very good against Switzerland. He gets the goal, the big goal against Egypt. But generally, he's been part of the reason the midfield has been pedestrian. And McAllister gets the big opening goal against Switzerland, but didn't really do that much outside of it. I think the only one of these four guys that you're impressed with is Leandro Paredes. And look, this guy is 29 and playing at Boca Juniors in Argentina, right? Like the level here isn't so high that you're just trusting this. And I think...
00:46:21
Speaker
That to me was the biggest concern for Argentina coming out of the Switzerland game. Nothing over the past few days and nothing until Wednesday is going to change my mind on that. I am very concerned circling this matchup.
00:46:32
Speaker
And I think this matchup might just supersede every other conversation we have at this game, because if Argentina can't get a foothold in this midfield, you allow England to play the style that they want to play.
00:46:43
Speaker
And eventually over 90 minutes, 120 minutes, eventually Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane are going to hurt you. And it's going to start with Jude Bellingham just being able to run rampant in the midfield.
00:46:55
Speaker
Yeah. And it's literally run rampant. It's like not necessarily what he does in structure when they get set up, but it's in those moments of disorganization when you're Argentina and you're caught in space that look, look at his goal against Norway. Like he just, all it takes is one moment and he's so fast. You can't close him when he's on the ball and he's a good shooter. So you're in trouble there. And England have shown they're very methodical at setting you up when they have the control.
00:47:25
Speaker
Gordon, Saka, cross to Kane and Bellingham, and good luck. like Even if you stop those guys in the header, they're two-man movement in the box. like As you said on an earlier podcast, having to defend multiple runs is a very, very high level that these guys make you make you do. And...
00:47:40
Speaker
and Look, Lassandro Martinez, Kudu Romero have been good at points. They have been bad at points. I think you're trying to get Jude or Harry Kane on a Lassandro Martinez header as your end target of a pattern of play here.
00:47:55
Speaker
And obviously, Madueke has been... not so good, you're still getting at least 45 minutes of Saka. And so if you seed midfield control, I can tell you it just looks like Saka running at you and finding Kane and Bellingham until over and over until one of them breaks, right?
00:48:13
Speaker
The other thing with this Argentine midfield and with this Argentina team is where's England's weakness against the ball in this game? It's right back. How do you take advantage of an outside back?
00:48:25
Speaker
A tricky winger. da it see but don't got so We don't got those. Wiggers didn't come. They didn't come in the in the in the package with this Argentina team. And so I think, yeah, that's really interesting. So if we think England win the midfield, then like you say, Argentina, they're going to need to get at the English fullbacks to attack. And this team, as you said, with your very good guttural noise, they haven't played wingers, right? so So surely Nico Gonzalez is going to get a go here.
00:48:53
Speaker
But are you going to go with him at left back and and trust that? Because that's been kind of Argentina's stretch that side wide play has been Tagliafico or Nico Gonzalez at left back. But I almost feel like you're going to need more than just your left back coming forward. You're going to need to commit more to the wing. So is there a scenario here where Nico Gonzalez comes in for either DePaul or McAllister? And that's the one guy got to go and that's the replacement. Could that be what Argentina do when they play him in a traditional... role And you're kind of going back to that 4-3-3 we saw them use in 2022. I think that's interesting. And so could this be a game like somebody for Simeone? Maybe. But again, we haven't seen that from Argentina. I don't know why we would expect to start seeing that now.
00:49:38
Speaker
I agree. And he's also on the right side, which is Messi's side, which is perhaps why we never see him. But you could move Messi around. You could move Messi to the 10 and get a ah winger on that side. And yeah, it's interesting. You're saying star two left backs and one of them is a left winger. But like you need something there. And I think...
00:49:56
Speaker
The thing about both of those players is they're good at getting wide and high and then being direct, which is fine. But I think what you would like is a guy that can dribble Kansa if it's Kansa, right? Because there might be 45 to 60 minutes of this game where it's not Rhys James. Maybe Rhys James comes in and then you're just, you know, in in trouble in a different way. Maybe Jed Spence. Based on if I'm Tuchel, I'm saving Jed Spence for left back for the minutes I get for him there.
00:50:28
Speaker
But I don't love that, like, Gonzalez is a good player. When he gets there, he just turns in, right? He never, like, shakes you and gives you that shimmy and cross. And so it's a weird way for Argentina to build chances. So how do they score on England in this game? If it's against the ball or with the ball? Like, it's all on Messi to, like, use his IQ to drag...
00:50:52
Speaker
The center backs out of position. Like, I think Declan Rice, big, big game for him if he's healthy. But Rice and Anderson, like, look how well they took care of Holland. Tuchel is such a detailed manager. Like, I can guarantee you the guy has just been showing them clips of Messi for like 23 hours a day. So I want to put a pin in Messi because I think an interesting kind of sub question here for England is which England are we getting?
00:51:19
Speaker
Right. How, where are the minutes restrictions on this England team? What can Thomas Tuchel actually count on in this game? Because right. Kind of down the stretch against Norway. I think we saw this team.
00:51:30
Speaker
Declan Rice accepted who who came off at halftime. We saw this team probably in their best defensive form we've seen them in this tournament. But how much is Tuchel actually going to get to play that, right? What can Jed Spence play and where does he play it?
00:51:44
Speaker
Do you have to run this Kansa right back John Stone center back experiment again? Like, are you going to have to count on minutes from that? You know, Nico O'Reilly probably starts at left back. Are you getting...
00:51:56
Speaker
Right back. Right. is rees james healthy enough to play what is he healthy enough to play knas's back in the conversation here but i think based on what you saw against mexico i don't know if that's what you're trusting in the back line where's deccklan rice's heat in midfieldel him being healthy enough to play ninety minutes at one hundred percent would be massive for england it's game changing for england Is there a best option on the wing? Like, is Nani Mudwike getting 45 minutes in this game simply because Bakayo Saka can't go 90 minutes? All of those questions, you know, is he papering over cracks with Rodgers and Stones? All of those questions, I think, are so important.
00:52:32
Speaker
And we, frankly, two days out, don't know the answer to that. And I think that's also going to determine so much of the second level conversation around this game. Right, because even if England are the better team on paper, they might not be in their best form, as we saw with such an issue against Norway. And Argentina are better equipped than the Norway to to to pounce on maybe the...
00:52:58
Speaker
the evolutionary stage of England for Tuchel before he gets there. And look, I asked the question, who's going to hurt you? Okay, I forgot. Obviously, I forgot the guy who scored the game-winning amazing Galazzo. Julian Alvarez has to have something in this game. And that's the guy, if it's not messy, he's got he's got to have a big game. And maybe that's where you say...
00:53:19
Speaker
Go find Kansa, right? If Rice is ah is hurt, is there 15 minutes in the second half where Tuchel's in that weird lineup configuration? Or at any point, if a guy's out of position and doesn't feel comfortable, can you go get the ball and shoot? And like I've been saying that about Avaris' whole tournament, and it sounds so like silly, like go get the ball and shoot. But like that's what he does. And then you go, well, there's a guy that might you you might be able to shoot on.
00:53:45
Speaker
And Jordan Pickford, end goal, right? Who hasn't quite covered himself in glory so far. So there's moments here for Argentina. I think there's options here, but I want to come back to the Messi point that you made earlier because if we're asking how are Argentina going to get at England, Messi plays a huge role, right? Because...
00:54:04
Speaker
If you have, and Argentina have obviously made this decision, if you have made the decision that you are sacrificing one potential runner in this game so that Lionel Messi can play, and look, that decision was made three years ago for Argentina. It's it's it's not a decision they're actually wrestling with.
00:54:20
Speaker
You need Messi to be dynamite in this game. You need him to be at his game-changing best. So the first part of that question is, how are you deploying him here, right? Are you asking him to be a vertical runner, which was how he scored a goal at point in this tournament?
00:54:35
Speaker
Are you asking him to be a midfield playmaker to work through something like Rice in Anderson? Are you asking him to be an improvised winger to try and go at an eco-reilly or an inexperienced left back for England? It's probably going to be a bit of everything, but you said it, right? 23 hours a day, Thomas Tuchel is showing his guys messy videos.
00:54:55
Speaker
You have to imagine that England are going to run guys at messy. And I think it's a very interesting point here in that Messi hasn't been run at by a Premier League level midfield or defense since probably the Copa America of 2024 and it was Colombia, right? Like he's done this all and he's done it at a high level, but he's done it against Austria and Algeria and Switzerland and Cape Verde and Egypt. Now you are working against a bona fide Premier League midfield, a Super League midfield with Super League runners and Super League legs. And we're talking about a guy who's been at Inter Miami for years feasting on MLS defenders.
00:55:36
Speaker
Does he still have it in his bag to do it against legitimate Premier League players and multiple of them? That's a great question. I just... I love the way you framed that. Like, I i haven't... Like, i hadn't quite thought about it exactly in that scenario. Like, the level might have might have gotten him. Like, might have gotten to him in in in a World Cup semifinal.
00:55:57
Speaker
And you kind of just... You say, like what's in the well? How much magic is there in the well if you're Lionel Messi? Can you do a throwback and show us like the genius that's been there all the time? And maybe you know sometimes with all these, your favorite goats in any sport that you've watched late in their career, that the athleticism isn't their answer. It's the IQ.
00:56:18
Speaker
And so is there something on Anderson, O'Reilly, Stones? Those are the three guys that maybe aren't quite as good as the other guys like Rice and, end you know, Kansa and, you know, perhaps Spence or I don't know, you might be able to get Spence too on your IQ, but Lionel Messi has never played in England.
00:56:42
Speaker
He always stayed away from England, but he loved playing English teams in the Champions League because of the narrative of that. he He ducked them and he's had some of his best games against these guys.
00:56:54
Speaker
Look like, but You asked the question. I'm following up. It's a great question. Does he have it? Like, and what does it look like? Is it, is it a movement game? Is it a late runner game? Like,
00:57:08
Speaker
I don't think he's beating them over the top and I don't think he's winning on the dribble enough. So to me, it's a one, two, it's a gravity game. It's a, does he get that pass playmaking game? Is it the pass that he hits to unlock Alvarez or Lottaro is what I'm looking at, what he could use his IQ to hurt England.
00:57:28
Speaker
And it has to be because I don't know what Argentina have if they don't have Messi. And like, if you're not getting a game-changingly good performance from that guy in this moment, I think it's pretty hard to envision Argentina winning this game because you're spending so much of your tactical energy, if you will, on playing this guy, on giving this guy opportunities. And look,
00:57:51
Speaker
I think you and I both agree that we view Lionel Messi as the greatest of all time. But it's also very clear he's not physically now what he once was. And so you're asking all those questions and we're going get those answers. And look, I think Messi would have loved playing England at other points in his career. I don't know if that's the matchup he wants at this point in his career. I think it's so, so critical to Argentina. So, right. Can I add something too? Absolutely.
00:58:17
Speaker
Goal the century, Diego Maradona versus England. like I know I'm just being silly here, but and Messi has scored his own version of of the goal of century, but like if there was ever a game to do something just bonkers, like absolutely jaw-droppingly ridiculous to save for one moment in his career, like it could be this game. Sorry. I'm just i'm just giggling at the idea of Messi pulling out one final...
00:58:40
Speaker
astounding, astounding play. and that's And that's exactly what you're talking about. Everything that's left in the well for Lionel Messi is coming out in this game. right like Every ounce of juice that he has, whatever he's potentially been saving in this tournament, if he's been saving anything, it's coming here. It has to come here because this is the matchup for Argentina. This is their first high-level game in however long it's been. You've got to have it. And if he's got it, it's coming here. So if we kind of assume here, Amit, that England or might own the midfield,
00:59:09
Speaker
and Argentina aren't going to have much presence on the wing, this might just turn into a Thomas Tuchel strangle show, right? This yeah might just be England possession and playing for small XG chances and eventually trusting that Jude Bellingham late runs, Harry Kane bits and set pieces are going to be enough for England to win this game. Is that what Tuchel's trying to approach here?
00:59:33
Speaker
100% he wants to strangle every team he plays he just hasn't been able to do it because of what he went down against Norway and he went down against DR Congo and the Azteca was a no tactic zone and so like he thinks that he can strangle this Argentinian game and win it to zero and get a cane header or a set piece exactly like you described.
00:59:53
Speaker
I mean, like there is a scenario in this game where it's like England are due to just get a Tuchel control strangle game. Like that's been looming and Argentina have been...
01:00:05
Speaker
teetering precariously on the edge of just getting got like wholeheartedly in a game. But the one thing is like, I just don't think England have the pure, pure athletes to close off a game. If they're up one, like Argentina can get back into something. You've got to try to get up to. And part of that is Kane, you know, not necessarily being the depressed and Tuchel never takes him off for Watkins. And part of that is, know,
01:00:32
Speaker
the back line. What will help Tuchel, though, if he's trying to strangle is I do think depth here. Argentina are limited in what they can do. And Tuchel's depth has been a clear, clear plus in the last 30, the last 10, the last extra for England.
01:00:52
Speaker
And the depth for Argentina, so much of it, or not so much of it necessarily, but half of it's going to be spent on changing out the fullbacks because that's what Argentina do every game. So two subs you already know are just going to be like for like fullback replacements that don't really make you any more dangerous and probably don't leave you any more open to to to being got. And so then if you're saying, right, Argentina probably stick with Alvarez and Messi up top, then a third change is going to be Lautaro Martinez in some form.
01:01:17
Speaker
And depending on game state will determine whether that change is like-ish for like-ish with Alvarez or if you're taking off one of those midfielders to get another attacking player on. So, yeah, I think depth is absolutely a point here for England.
01:01:29
Speaker
And you said it in minute. England's strangle game has fallen apart because of low XG chances going in, right? Sepanga, Sheldra, Croatia, all of the trouble that England have had has been from that or the tactics free zone that was the Azteca. And so can Argentina take advantage of low XG chances going in?
01:01:51
Speaker
Alvarez and Messi can do that, but can they get him enough of a look to do that? And we already talked about Jordan Pickford, but it's worth mentioning again, if low XG chances go in, he's probably playing a role in it.
01:02:02
Speaker
And so is that going to, again, kind of throw this two-goal strangle game off track and off its path because of one of these low XG chances going in? It absolutely could. And the other thing that could throw Tuchel off his strangle game, we mentioned this earlier, you mentioned this earlier, we have to say it again, is just him not having the right fullbacks or center mids on the field. That's where it could fall apart and you might have some joy.
01:02:26
Speaker
Look, the other thing is like... I think at a certain point, if it is a strangle off, it is is a control game. Argentina might slide into playing for pens. That might be their their chance that they think we, you know, let's put the vibes to the test, right? Like you want to put the entire history of England at the World Cup against the vibiest mentality as team of mentality time, take it to penalties and see what happens. Right. And like, that is a card sitting in the back pocket here for Argentina that I think is pretty interesting.
01:02:58
Speaker
So that could definitely be on the table. And look, Debu, I think Debu has a better reputation than Jordan Pickford, but he's, he's mistake prone in club. His, his country resume is just much more, you know, Scott free, but like he could do it too. He's a big game guy though. And this is a big game. Like,
01:03:18
Speaker
Again, do I want Debo Martinez, you know, playing goalie for me on Saturday at 10 a.m. m in November? Aston Villa Wolves? Maybe not. But like Argentina, England, you're not going to find a single Argentine that wants anything else at goal other than Debo Martinez.
01:03:32
Speaker
Correct. And you think about Debu, you always think about shenanigans, and you think about Argentina as the whole. And you do think that part of their strategy in this game has to be their experience, their vibes, their champion vibes as World Cup vibes, and their ability to just get under England's skin.
01:03:50
Speaker
England's skin is very get underable. Like, it just just is. Their own manager is getting under their skin, right? You saw the dude, Bellingham, Thomas Tuchel, like, back and forth in separate mixed zone interviews. like Yeah, it's there.
01:04:04
Speaker
And you look at the goal England gave up, the first one to Norway, Kane's flopping on that goal. like I do think... England are, you know, derogatory, non-derogatory. They're floppers. And, like, you got to toe the line and see what you can get away with. Like, you might not be drawing even in this game, but can you bully England off the field a little bit? Like, Argentina, pre this run, 2014 Argentina used to just kick the crap out of you ah when Javier Mascherano was, like, their best player. And so...
01:04:35
Speaker
i you know You could lean into that as well and really try to really try to grime England. and you're trying to like We talk about the history, the weight. You're trying to make them feel that. like i know France-Spain has the weight, but it just feels like much more of a you know x's and o's game versus this is like a vibes game and like you know you could disagree with us it's not like they're not vibes in that game there's not x's and o's in this game but like this is world cup after dark this is the world cup after dark
01:05:10
Speaker
And I think that's a really interesting point too, that Argentina should be looking to make this game feel weighty for England, right? Like they want the longer that this stays level, the longer that penalties are there. If Argentina can get a lead, they want the entire World Cup history of England to be present in this game, right? They want it to feel tangible because that probably you would think plays into their favor. What doesn't play into their favor, admit, is a point that you and I made on our Argentina preview podcast back in May when we said that Argentina still have not played a high-level, top-tier team, right? And I think there is a scenario here where that level that they're finally seeing here for the first time at this tournament, for the first time really outside of South America since the last tournament, that level might just blow Argentina out of the water until they can adjust.
01:06:03
Speaker
And I think because of that, I am super intrigued by the possibility that if ever, if ever there's a game for Thomas Tuchel to simply let his horses run for 20 minutes instead of playing 0.06 against 0.01 XG soccer for 20 minutes, this is the game to do it.
01:06:23
Speaker
Don't let Argentina get a foothold in here. Tell them this is what playing a Premier League team looks like. You haven't done it in four years. Good luck. I love that. I think you're really, really onto a point. like And we've seen it for Argentina. We said teetering on the precipice against the Egypts and the Cape Verde and the Switzerlands. like What if you just smack um at exactly how you described it? So maybe, maybe Tuchel believes that. And Tuchel's always telling his guys to play faster to the level. like We give him this reputation as control, but... like
01:06:55
Speaker
man that could be the the the the shock here like as we see so many times with these historic teams it falls before it like you expect and we've kind of been it's almost like they've survived a few times but this could just be past their level and the other thing just you know we toss out x factors at the end for sure indoors for england they have been dealing with weird conditions right yep They went to Miami. they They did attrition with Norway in the heat. They did altitude. They're finally on a manicured field indoors. What if you let it – what if then – now's the time, Tuchel says. we've been We've been playing with these weird invisible you know controls on us. Now it's time to to go.
01:07:36
Speaker
And look, there's a scenario here where in 22 minutes, England can be two or three up in this game. Like, do I think it's likely? Do I think it's probable? No, but it wouldn't leave me completely floored or stunned. Like that's a scenario that could happen here. And so I think it would really be against England's best outcome here. If they let Argentina settle, you don't want to let this team settle, make them uncomfortable early, force them to chase back because then if Argentina are trying to chase back, and this is interesting, they're I don't know that Argentina could win the ball back.
01:08:07
Speaker
I don't know if if England have the ball here, like how are Argentina planning on getting it back and how are they planning on progressing it forward? As you said, this is a team that got bossed in the midfield for 40 plus minutes by Switzerland and got bailed out in that game by the Swiss having to go down to 10 and shell up.
01:08:24
Speaker
Right. So if that doesn't happen, if something out of left field and again, this Argentina team has kind of existed on out of left field in this tournament. So maybe that comes and maybe there's a there's a variable that you and i aren't seeing here that's going to come in and totally shift this game unless that happens.
01:08:41
Speaker
Right. Like, I feel like this should all just point really big and bright neon lights towards England. I think you're on it. I think we're on it. I mean, we talk about France, Spain, who can keep the ball? Can France get the ball?
01:08:56
Speaker
Think about how Argentina wins the ball back when it's Messi, DePaul, McAllister, and if Julian Alvarez doesn't want to press. You're just not cha you're not getting the ball back. you need ah like Obviously, when they have the ball time, you're not getting the ball. So...
01:09:13
Speaker
It's really, really dicey. Look, I think it's funny that England is a less favored team than France overall in the betting markets in this one because it feels like the gap between the teams is bigger in this game than it is in that game.
01:09:28
Speaker
I think so. And I think that, like I said, every sign points you to England and they should be favored higher than that. And so this kind of feels almost similar to what happened at the Azteca, right? Where Argentina are trying to stack up all of these little things to even the playing field.
01:09:46
Speaker
And all of those little things, I don't know that there's enough of them here, unless something unexpected happens. And maybe look, the hand of God, perhaps. Exactly. Right. like like Maybe you and I get to Wednesday night at whatever time this game wraps up and we say the Del Siglo here was X, right? The end the century that happened here was this. We didn't see it coming, but we thought something like this could happen. And maybe it changes our entire perspective because that's what happens at the World Cup. And that's what happens particularly on this podcast, right? This pod, we are built for those types of things. We love those types of things, but barring something like that,
01:10:29
Speaker
If these two teams play straight up, heads up for 90 minutes, I know who I'm picking. And it's unfortunately not Argentina. Yeah, yeah. And it's not necessarily divine intervention, but it's in the the percentages that you don't like, right? So um look, um it's so funny that we're in complete agreement about this game, but it's so funny that it's still so compelling just because of Argentina are what they are and because England what they are. And that's why you started with the the context in this game and why, despite what you just said, it's not going to feel good for England. It's just not. They're they're gonna they're going to sweat
World Cup Mentalities: England vs. Argentina
01:11:07
Speaker
again. Because that's what Tuchel teams do. this is They sweat. And this England team sweats. And so, man, what a spectacle. Like, this is going to be. it's so, so good. And look, what's the one thing that we've said? We've made this point about Argentina for a really long time. You have to kill this team off.
01:11:25
Speaker
right And so if England come out guns blazing and if they score early, if they take the lead, they can't take their foot off the gas pedal. Because unless you are three goals up on this team with half an hour to go, i think there's still a push somewhere down deep in the depths of this Argentina team. They're not going to give up until they are completely dead, gone, buried, and we've had the funeral.
01:11:48
Speaker
right And so is there just enough mentality there for them to hang around, to stick around, to lull England into this sense of security? And again,
Semifinals Anticipation and Narratives
01:11:57
Speaker
what makes this so fun is England are the poster child of bad World Cup mentality.
01:12:04
Speaker
It is one team with... one team with in this current era, great World Cup mentality, and one team within this current era and a lot of eras before it, bad World Cup mentality. And they're going head-to-head, facing off.
01:12:17
Speaker
And as you said, it's a great, great spectacle. And I think you and I are both very, rightfully, very, very excited to see it. I think everyone is. This is what we were hoping for with these getting these four teams here. Now we finally get to see.
01:12:31
Speaker
And it's like, look, it's been a great World Cup and it's too early to to to contextualize anything or or whatever. But and like enjoy it. Drink it in. Four the best teams, four the best narratives. That's why we do the dang thing. Fan, podcaster, you know whatever it is, you just got to enjoy it.
01:12:52
Speaker
And we will. And we will. And one final point for me on Argentina-England before we wrap this up. We've talked about how ah how Argentina have played with fire, right? They have gotten out of this. They've just—great escape, right? Three straight times.
01:13:04
Speaker
England have been on the precipice of getting vibes, too, right? They were down against Dierre Congo. They had to go to the Aztec and survive. They go to extra time against Norway, and at points in that game, they are teetering, right?
01:13:17
Speaker
Do England get close to the fire in this game as well? And if you let this Argentina team vibes you, they will vibes you, right? That is kind of been our overall thesis here. So I think that's just another wrinkle to throw into
Future Content and Promotions
01:13:29
Speaker
all of this. That makes all of it good. But you said it a bit. This is going to be so, so good.
01:13:33
Speaker
I know our listeners are very excited for this. I know you and I are very excited for this. We will be back post-game France-Spain tomorrow. We'll have a post-game show Argentina-England on Wednesday, so be sure to be on the lookout for those. And if you want to support us directly, you can do so at patreon.com slash WCAD. $3 a month subscriber-only content as we hit the final week of this World Cup.
01:13:55
Speaker
But what a final week it will be. All that is left for me to say is, once again, as always, a big thank you to Amit for coming along on the ride with me. Thank you to you, the listeners. Enjoy the games and we will talk tomorrow.