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WCAD 4-39: For Whom the Bell (Curve) Tolls
3.8k Plays8 days ago
Austin and Amit make sense of the USMNT's World Cup exit and recap what felt like an inevitable win for Spain against Portugal.
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Transcript
US vs Belgium: Missed Opportunities
00:00:01
Speaker
So once every four years, the U.S. is faced with the question of their World Cup cycle. You've gotten to the round of 16. You're playing a big-ish European team.
00:00:15
Speaker
You have the chance to advance. You have the chance to create history. You have the chance to go further than the bell curve, this beloved, famous bell curve on this show would suggest.
00:00:26
Speaker
And this time around, Amit, they laid an egg. There's no way around it. There's no way around it. Anyone who watched this game, whether you're a soccer fan or a not, you can see that the United States just made ton of mistakes and was not up for the game. and There's two separate parts of it, right? There's them not being up for it, being a little rusty, just kind of struggling with the pace of the game and with Belgium being the better team on the day. And then there's the the head loss there's some really really really bad catastrophic you know dagger mistakes here and so there's the analysis part of it which we're going to do some of ah here on this podcast and there's also just the like don't do that like part of it like it's the biggest game of of soccer in america and however long the whole country's watching whole world's watching and you just you just barfed. like
Analyzing the US Team's Disappointing Performance
00:01:24
Speaker
and like i don't There's not a lot more than that. We're going to do a whole podcast to to talk about it, but like for anyone that is an American fan, you probably feel disappointed. You probably feel like what did i like, why did I just get up for that? And that feeling is so gross. It's gross, because you take a game where you play hard and and you go out, you take what Canada you take what Mexico did.
00:01:48
Speaker
It's hard to sit with what the United States did today. It's World Cup After Dark podcast. My name is Austin Miller. He, on the other end, is an unfortunately very disappointed of it. Malik, we're going break down everything from USA, Belgium. We'll have some Spain, Portugal talk at the end.
00:02:04
Speaker
All of the buildup here, Amit, obviously centered around the Balogun controversy, right? Will he, won't he? There's anger from the Belgian Federation. There's anger from UEFA. There's FIFA desperately trying to paint this picture of neutrality in a situation that frankly didn't appear to be very neutral.
00:02:25
Speaker
And all of that buildup coupled with all of what the U.S. had shown
Belgium's Tactical Superiority
00:02:31
Speaker
so far in the tournament, coupled with all of what Belgium had shown so far in the tournament, it led you into thinking that this game might go one way, and then the whistle blows, and this game just goes the other way completely, and you're kind of just stunned.
00:02:52
Speaker
A hundred percent. I mean, we did a lot of work talking about this game and it felt like the United States had an advantage in athleticism in the midfield and that Belgium had quality in their front line.
00:03:04
Speaker
But that, you know, you look at what Senegal did and you look at the United States did and you kind of point to those things being a game that the United States could have joy in. And instead, the United States is chasing the ball, slow to the ball, and struggling with Belgium's quality on the ball at 11 spots on the field. And Belgium's press.
00:03:24
Speaker
Belgium were not scared of the United States in this game. And they came out, punched United States in the face. And even before the first goal, the United States was clearly not ready for the intensity and skill level of Belgium. And so, like, yeah, we'll be the first ones to say, like, we got it wrong. I don't think we're the only ones that thought that the United States looked better and should have been better against Belgium. There is one key thing here, though, that that Rudy Garcia gets right.
00:03:54
Speaker
He takes out Kevin De Bruyne, a big player from his double pivot. He puts Tielemans at the 10, and he gets Inanna and Raskin at the pivot. And this is something we talked about on the preview podcast, to watch for this exact move, because Inanna is a good athlete and Raskin's a better athlete. And you kind of take away the biggest advantage Senegal had in that game was trying to get the weakest slow player off the ball.
00:04:19
Speaker
And the way to beat Belgium is to kind of get over the back line. It had been Mekele. It had been Arthur Teot. Instead, Ngoi comes in. and And don't think Ngoi is a great player at the end of the day, but he and Mekele had a good day against Flo Balogun.
00:04:38
Speaker
And the United States just was not able to contest midfield. And Belgium was really adventurous with their positioning. Both fullbacks are really, really high up. They're trying to take advantage of Serginho Dest. And it becomes very clear from the start, this is not the game Mariso Pochettino thought he was getting. It's not the game any of the players on the field thought they were getting. And that's happened a few times in this tournament, right? you want to talk about Norway-Brazil, right? Sometimes a manager decides to buck the game.
00:05:07
Speaker
And generally, the counter of that, what you think is going to happen, is worrisome, right? But there was never any threat that, oh, Belgium's coming at us. We're going get them over the top when they overcommit because the U.S. couldn't complete a pass. That was like the biggest, biggest theme is how shocked the United States were.
00:05:29
Speaker
And so you take all of that, and even within all of that context, there are still moments where the US has a foothold in this game. There are still moments where it feels like they can turn the tide and where they can still get something from it.
00:05:45
Speaker
But in each of those moments, they just commit catastrophic, unforgivable errors that just give away goals to Belgium. And that
Critical Errors by the US Team
00:05:55
Speaker
is what you absolutely cannot do. You can almost explain the shocked lights were too bright. Belgium came with a approach we weren't expecting. You can almost explain that away.
00:06:06
Speaker
You can't explain the way the fact that when we finally get something to go our way in this game, the two times that it happens for the U.S., s when they get a deflected free kick goal, and in the second half when they put on Giovanni Reina and they start to find a little bit of possession and start to kind of take control back of this game, both of those moments are pretty much nearly immediately followed by gift goals to Belgium.
00:06:30
Speaker
And you just cannot gift goals in the World Cup knockout run. You do not get away with doing stuff like that. You don't. You don't. And this is where, like, why do we, like, we're analyzing the game and here we're here to tell you that, like, you you simply cannot do these things at this level. At no level you can do them. And, yeah, the Matt Freeze giveaway is easily one of the worst things I've ever seen. And I think it's probably one of the worst things you've ever seen if you saw it.
00:06:55
Speaker
You cannot come out, clear the ball, and then just sit on it like you're going to hezzy, like you're doing a fake shot in FIFA, like his controller broke. Like, what are you doing? You're Matt Freeze. You're the goalkeeper.
00:07:09
Speaker
kick the ball and everyone in the world is thinking the same thing. It's, it' it's, it's really, really bad mistake. And I go back to Henry Bushnell on the preview podcast, talking about Matt freeze being unreliable with this free feet. And we were like, well, maybe Matt Turner's unreliable with this feet, but you know, who would never try like a hesitation kick is Matt Turner or Chris Brady or any old United States goalkeeper.
00:07:36
Speaker
And that, Mistake in particular is really, really hard to overcome. Because even after everything, like you're saying, if you're down 2-1 with 30 minutes, you could kind of back your way into a box of salt and make Belgium sweat. Worst teams than the U.S. have had success in that situation.
00:07:55
Speaker
Yeah, 100%. And it just felt like that took all the air out of it, despite everything. There was real fight to start the second half, and it just came at the worst time. And Tim Ream, in particular, had a really, really bad game.
00:08:09
Speaker
He really did. He gets dunked on on the second goal by De Quetelaire, who we have to give credit to is good. We had kind of started on the preview podcast says, this is a really intriguing player for Belgium. He's kind of a tweener forward 10. He's at Atlanta. He's a good player.
00:08:23
Speaker
He's young. He can run. He can shoot. And then he just kind of wasn't working with this Belgium setup. You got to credit Rudy Garcia. Like, this Belgium did not look like the Belgium we had seen for the four games before it. This looked much closer to this is the eighth or ninth or tenth best team in the world. Like...
00:08:43
Speaker
What were the weaknesses for Belgium today? Maybe N'Goy and Mekele for pace, and you don't really see that in this game until very late. And D'Aketa Lare, yeah, maybe he isn't as good Romelu Lukaku, but I can tell you that a Serie Atalanta striker...
00:09:00
Speaker
is running rings around Charlotte FC center back. And we always said the limiting factor for this team was Tim Ream. I didn't think it would come against Catelare and Luca Bacchio, but it did. They're real players. And...
00:09:17
Speaker
The U.S. knew it had to prevent Ream from getting exposed. And that's why the cross on the you know the the second goal is such a problem that Trussard is able to get that off. And it's just all these little cascading things that like it was the worst case scenario for the United States in how they got beat and also in the way they mentally like approached the game.
00:09:38
Speaker
And we're going to focus in, I think, a lot on the U.S. here. And and I think that's deservedly so. They're host nation for this tournament. We're two American people on this podcast. I understand that a lot of our audience our americans are Americans. looking for the U.S. perspective. You also have to give a lot of credit to Belgium here, who I think... yeah were unquestionably motivated by everything that had happened over the last 36 hours. That certainly doesn't hurt their case. And I think they took what they found in the last 35 minutes of the Senegal game. And we asked this, we said this on our Senegal podcast, on the review, we said, all right, what are Belgium going to learn from this? Are they going to learn the right things? And I think the answer kind of is...
00:10:22
Speaker
Yeah, they did. This was the, by far, by far, the best they've looked this tournament. And Doku doesn't start either. Like, and Rudy Garcia gets that right because Trossard's quality on the ball And DeKuyper, the left back, getting into weird spots, like really put Dest under a lot of pressure. And Dest, we always thought, we knew was a weak defensive wingback. And Freeman slash McKinney were in a tough spot trying to defend. And Chosard was really, really dangerous. And Tielemans, for all of his faults, doesn't have to worry about battling in the midfield. Like Raskin and Inanna were really, really good in this game.
00:11:05
Speaker
And it
US Tactical Adjustments: Too Little, Too Late?
00:11:06
Speaker
shows you that, like, sometimes the models or your mental model, in my case, mine, like, you miss things or that things can change in ways that you haven't seen them before, right? Rudy Garcia has a vision of this game that no one has seen but him, right? Like, what do you think the United States thought this game was going to be? They were just going to walk into the final third. Belgium was going to be scared of getting boss in the midfield, and it was going to be a Pulisic take-on game and a Desk take-on game.
00:11:33
Speaker
And instead, it's a we're just losing the ball everywhere game because Belgium decided to come at them. How long did it take for the U.S. to look settled onto the ball? Minute 30? Right. And by that point, they've already given Belgium a foothold. They've already given Belgium the belief. And really, it takes until the second half before they have any sort of progressive play that's consistent. right do you want to go into into the blow by blow of this and break it down a little bit more?
00:11:58
Speaker
and We could gloss gloss the items. All right, so you mentioned it, right? the The big decision that Rudy Garcia makes is that he starts the the midfield pivot of Raskin and of Onana. And I think what's most interesting about this is he only gets a quarter from Onana right before Onana goes off injured. And even then the replacement that he makes works.
00:12:20
Speaker
Works as a stretch because when Vonneken comes in he has to go to the 10 and Tielemans goes back to the pivot. This is the exact thing we were talking about the United States could get in this game. And immediately in that stretch, that's when it goes from 1-0 to 1-1.
00:12:34
Speaker
They get some control on the ball. Adams drops deep, right? Stu Holden points us out of the broadcast to free Robinson and Des. The United States needs space somewhere. And they finally get it.
00:12:44
Speaker
Balogun gets a foul, maybe a soft foul, at the edge of the box. And Tillman... somehow beats Courtois. So the 1-0 goal for Belgium, but before we get to the 1-1 from the U.S., s this is just the U.S. falling asleep defensively in the first 10 minutes of a game. And after they had started games so well this tournament, right, just about every game had featured an early goal for the U.S. Here, they're starting on the back foot and and really less than a minute in, right, Kostan gets a good hit that almost, that is saved by freeze.
00:13:15
Speaker
And Belgium kind of pretty clearly stayed out at the start of this game that they're going to press, that they're going to take the initiative, and It catches the U.S. off, and credit to Belgium, they make that count, right? So after a block, there's just a lot of ball watching, and and it's Raskin that just kind of follows the ball, makes the play, weaves through, drives forward, and then Robinson and Reen lose to Catelaria for a tap-in, and
Evaluation of the US World Cup Cycle
00:13:39
Speaker
this is just bad box defending from just about everybody.
00:13:44
Speaker
You just watch this play, and they're all asleep on the ball. They're not like awake to Belgium's movement. And that one's really, really frustrating. Like, this isn't as much of a give giveaway as some of the other goals, but it feels like it is too. Serginio Dest is in front of Raskin.
00:13:58
Speaker
Someone has to talk to him. Like, there's a guy on you. Or you have to have the mental counter. Like, I'm in the box. I need to be strong to the ball. And it's it's really frustrating. And you have to give credit to Raskin here. He totally, like, smells that Dest is unaware. And then everyone else is just watching. And I don't know. I mean, Diquet Alaria, understand this one, him being free. He's kind of right in the middle. They're just not communicating about him. But also, you can't lose a striker in the box either.
00:14:24
Speaker
And so then from there, Belgium continued to apply pressure. And then you mentioned it. Onana goes down with a knee injury. and And we kind of said, all right, this could change this equation. And it does because they have to move Thielman's back and they end up having to put Vonneken in more of the 10 role. And that's where the U.S. still feels uncomposed because it doesn't feel like they have the personnel or the approach. I don't know what. It just felt like they weren't in position to take advantage of this.
00:14:52
Speaker
It was tough. I think Pulisic has a really bad game before he gets hurt. They were getting the ball to him on the left. And the whole point is he's got to take his man on, right? He's got to get after Timothy Castagne or, sorry, it's the, it's, or it is Castagne on this side.
00:15:10
Speaker
The Kuypers on the left side. And he's just not taking him on. And he's just like kind of stuttering on the the press from Castagne and losing the ball. And,
00:15:20
Speaker
and what what What do you want to say? Like, it's more than just that. But once you start feeling like you don't have confidence on your front line to get the take on, you're trying to unlock longer balls to Balogun and you're looking for all these different combinations that aren't working. It just felt like Pochettino's system was developed around Dest and Pulisic doing things and they weren't able to do it. And then it felt very, very stale.
00:15:43
Speaker
And all of the intricate kind of passing flicks and and and play-ons and knock-ons that we saw from Baligan earlier in the tournament, you saw none of that come off in this game today. And there's a couple of moments, especially where Baligan is stepping over the ball to leave it, and and there's nobody behind him to leave it, where he's trying to knock out, and it's just not quite there. But the U.S. s gets a lifeline, right?
US Team's Mental Focus Issues
00:16:06
Speaker
It's a cheaply won free kick. It probably shouldn't have been a free kick, but it is. And it's a deflected free kick that goes right off the head of Vonneken and in the back of the net.
00:16:17
Speaker
And this, in that moment, it just feels like it's massive because you've beaten Courtois in a way that you probably didn't think you could beat him, which is from a dead ball situation directly on goal. And it feels like this is a gift. This is a foothold. Get this to halftime one one and things might be okay.
00:16:35
Speaker
You could go back to this point in the game, and I just don't think it goes the way it goes most of the time. The only thing you can say about this goal is like what comes within a minute is just so backbreaking.
00:16:47
Speaker
And this goal was like a big, two big strokes of fortune. Like the NFC's not done anything to this point. But like sometimes when you get that, you have to like play like you got there normally. And then you're in a 1-1 game and they continue to have their brains turned off.
00:17:02
Speaker
It feels like even before the U.S. can really
Future Prospects for US Soccer
00:17:05
Speaker
kind of process and internalize the fact that they're 1-1 and make the necessary adjustments, Belgium are right back the other way, and it's Trossard in a dangerous position on the left, and he's working on both Freeman and Dest, and they're both there in position, but neither one of them is able to really contest the cross, and Trossard, and this was something we saw a lot from Belgium, not just on the goal.
00:17:27
Speaker
Their delivery into the box, whether from open play or on set pieces, really, really, really good. And it was really, really dangerous. And it was consistently asking questions of the U S and on this one in particular, Troussard puts a perfectly worked ball into the box. And the kettle Larry is basically one-on-one with Tim Ream and he wins that one-on-one battle and he wins it emphatically.
00:17:51
Speaker
He does. This is a great dunk from Ketelare on Tim Ream. And Tim Ream, this is where his athleticism is really, really exposed. And look, sometimes you get a little too international soccer-brained where you're like, Trossard is slow. He doesn't quite work in this Belgium system. He's nowhere near as dynamic as Doku.
00:18:10
Speaker
But the guy is a rotational midfielder at Arsenal who just won the Premier League. And he is an exceptional, exceptional quality player on the ball. And like, even, you know, Dest and Robinson and Freeman are like good defenders one-on-one, but like, it's the timing, the way he gets to the spot. It's so similar to what Saka does against Gallardo the other night for Mexico-England. Like, you can't, like, you you're not trying to give him a cross, you're right? You're there one-on-two, but like, good players do this. And
00:18:42
Speaker
I have a lot of issues with this play, but this one I'm like, Tressard does really, really well here. It's more behind the ball. Tim Ream, like, you can't lose this duel, but you do because you're old and not as good at jumping.
00:18:56
Speaker
And to Kenilari, who was a player that look on the preview podcast, you said, and I said, and we said, the Kenilari minutes are minutes that the U S has to win because he is not their first choice striker, at least on paper. He's not their best player.
00:19:12
Speaker
And yeah, right You have to give the Catullaria credit. He was really good here. And those minutes were not lost minutes for Belgium. They were one minutes because of how dynamic he was and how physical he was. And maybe that physicality doesn't show up against a team like Iran. Maybe that physicality doesn't show up against a team like Senegal.
00:19:33
Speaker
But it showed up against the U.S. s today. He was really good. He was dynamic and certainly more dynamic than Ream. And I thought Rudy Garcia just had a really good idea of where to put his guys in mismatches. Like Trossard is working on Desk. DeCatelare is working on Ream. Like they're finding the weak spots and taking advantage of them. Like ah you got to give a lot of credit to Rudy Garcia too. This was a well-managed game.
00:20:01
Speaker
We also had have to give a ah lot of credit to Rudy Garcia for continually just sticking it out with the light blue shirt in conditions that are too hot for the light blue shirt. And he just got the underarm pit stains rocking, like pick a different shirt color, wear a different shirt, keep your jacket on. Nope. Doesn't matter. Rudy Garcia doesn't really care about how he looks because he's got his team playing well. So yeah. All right, man. I respect it. I see it. So the U.S. get to halftime.
00:20:27
Speaker
They're down to one The XG at this point is heavily in favor of Belgium, right? It's 1.9 to 0.4. The U.S. s should probably be down 2, but they're only down 1, and that, Amit, kind of represents an opportunity.
00:20:40
Speaker
Pochettino goes into the dressing room, and he makes a change. Brings on... Giovanni Reina, which is a choice, but I think it's a somewhat understandable one in this situation. You're looking for somebody to have quality on the ball. and He might be the player on the bench that has the most quality on the ball.
00:21:00
Speaker
He solves a lot of problems with this move. Problem number one is that Dest is struggling in this game. And problem number two is the midfield overall is struggling this game. So he switches to four. Freeman is now a right back and he's only got two center backs. Freeman immediately after this is super high, super wide. And now it's four, five, one. And Reina's at the 10 because McKinney,
00:21:21
Speaker
comes over to right mid. And so now the United States has five guys in the midfield to battle with Belgium's five guys. And it's much, much better. Yes, it's chaotic, but this substitution works. Is it because it's Reyna? I'm not sure necessarily. I think an any midfielder could have worked here. But Reyna is also coming deep to receive the ball, turning, and just settling the U.S. in possession. And so, for like 10 minutes, it really starts to feel like the United States are inching their way back into this game and making Belgium sweat. And...
00:21:54
Speaker
it's really I think this is a really good change by Pochettino. I think he does really well here. Honestly, the other thing that you you want to see, that I want to see, and I know he's the most dangerous player, but I thought Christian Pulisic was so bad. I would have put someone else in for him.
00:22:09
Speaker
Now an injury happens and it forces it anyway. And the U.S., these are probably their best 10 minutes of the game, right? They are, like you said, getting to the point where I think you can talk yourself into, all right, if they keep this up, some chances are going to come. They're going to get pe Belgium kind of pinned in. They're going to be open on the counter, but that's the risk that you have to take given how the game had gone, given what you'd seen in the first half.
00:22:34
Speaker
But again, at this point, it's a one goal game. And we have seen just about everybody in this tournament has been able to put the pressure on somebody for 10 minutes, right? This is the moment that the U.S. s needs to take advantage of. And they're kind of starting to do the things that could maybe take advantage of.
00:22:52
Speaker
these are the 15 minutes you have with your change in before you know who's on the bench for Garcia. It's Doku and Lukaku. So these 15 minutes are massive. And obviously, if it stays at a one goal and Doku and Lukaku come on, your game doesn't change. It's just more threatening the other way. And so like,
00:23:11
Speaker
we don't need to talk about third goal again, but it's, I think now when you walk through the game, like it's going to get lost that the United States were twice in spots to feel like they were in this game. And then again, if you go back to either of these spots and don't have the two head loss goals, and again, the second one's head loss slash Tim Ream dunk slash Trossard. But like, it's, it's just going to get lost in the sauce that like, this was, this was avoidable.
00:23:41
Speaker
And yeah, like the US s was there and then all of a sudden they weren't. And I think the fact that this was basically the second time that this happened in this game, right? I think it, and you can just tell, right? You're watching on the broadcast and the air just goes out of the stadium because it's just a completely unexpected play.
00:24:02
Speaker
And Freeze, like you said, he does well with the chest. You're like, he all right, he took care of it. Now just, you know, send it to wherever and recover. And he doesn't do that. And it and it's obviously in the back of the net.
00:24:14
Speaker
And there's really no coming back from that at that point. And I think it felt like everybody felt that. Yeah. The guys play out the motions. Pochettino does the fixes he tries. And there are 10 minutes here where the United States, you know, are pushing, but you need that first goal earlier. And to your point, I think it's just super, super deflating. And...
00:24:38
Speaker
I don't know. Like, is there a way to analyze it other than like you just your goalkeeper just absolutely can never do that? Like, yeah, you can toss in like maybe it should have been Turner, who probably on the whole of it might be better than freeze. But goalkeepers are very, very hard to evaluate.
00:24:54
Speaker
Like, I don't I don't know. I mean, yeah, you just can't have that mistake in that moment from whoever it is. And look, whoever you're playing is like, you're not expecting that that happens.
00:25:08
Speaker
It's honestly, it's like a game of Thrones over in Martell moment. Like he just, you just survived the mountain running at you. You did it. And then he's like, Nope, I'm going to like try something cool for a second. Cause I just doesn't cool. It's like, you don't get to do anything cool. You're the goalkeeper. Yeah.
00:25:24
Speaker
You shouldn't have done the first thing. and Like you shouldn't really have come out and made that play in the first place, but you've got away with the first thing and didn't get away with the second thing. um ah Things to to go through in the last couple of you know minutes of this game, ah Belgium to their credit, start doing bits and and they bring on Axel Witzel, who we had kind of forgotten was even in this squad and was like, not really an option here. And Rudy Garcia is like, Oh, you remember what happened in 2014? Yeah.
00:25:53
Speaker
You know who was there in 2014? It's this guy. It's Axel Witzel. Take five minutes, buddy. I appreciate Rudy Garcia doing that. Like, he knows, he knows right? He knows that Axel Witzel played in this game. He knows that Lukaku played in that game and Courtois. And...
00:26:08
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, he's a human victory cigar. Like, that's embarrassing. And Romelu Lukaku gets his goal for the 4-1, which was something that kind of felt inevitable in this game, and it ends up not really being that meaningful. But yeah, he scored, and he showed why they were concerned about him against the U.S.
00:26:27
Speaker
I mean, Chris Richards is a step, half a step, a quarter step. And it shows you, like, yeah, Chris Richards is a good center back. But Romelu Kaku is strong. He is strong. And he has got to a spot and knew where it was. And, yeah, I mean, he wasn't really the issue with Belgium, right? Like, Romelu Kaku has actually been pretty good for for them this tournament. I think it's, like, saved their bacon in the Senegal game.
00:26:51
Speaker
The issue has been he hasn't been available for extended stretches, right? They haven't been able to get 90 minutes out of him. But look, if you're getting this type of performance from Dick Canelari and if Lukaku is giving you this, like yeah you've got a combination there. So that's how it ends. It's 4-1 to Belgium. And I know that we've gone through a lot of teams this tournament. We've obviously said goodbye to a lot of teams this tournament. And you and I haven't taken a ton of time to kind of go through the aftermath and the big picture and the what comes next. But I think there's value to doing it here for a touch on the U.S.,
00:27:21
Speaker
Because there's only two games on this day, because we have a little bit extra time on this podcast, because I understand where a lot of our audience comes from, and because I think it is truly one of the more fascinating, okay, what next questions that comes out of this World Cup.
00:27:37
Speaker
So... What next here, right? And I understand i know that we are you know less than an hour from when this game actually ended. We don't know if Mauricio Pochettino will stay as the U.S. manager. Obviously, there were reports at various points during the tournament that he had been offered a four-year extension. I think at various points in the tournament, it felt like that could be a positive move for the U.S.,
00:27:58
Speaker
I don't know what your feelings on that are now at this point. There will be players from this generation who four years from now will be out of the picture. There will be players who four years from now will be at their peak. There will be players that we're probably not even considering that will be part of the picture in four years.
00:28:15
Speaker
But you can't help but feeling like this for the U.S., is so deflating. After everything that had gone right, after the way that they responded to all of the attention to start this tournament, after the way that, frankly, they captured hearts and minds throughout this tournament, for it to end like this, like every other major tournament has ended, just feels like a massive missed opportunity.
00:28:45
Speaker
It is. It is a massive missed opportunity. I mean, it's been eight years in the making, right? The United States don't go to Russia. They get punked out of qualifying. i think everyone wakes up and is like, we got to do this seriously. We got to really build. And we have to rebuild our team. That team was misbalanced.
00:29:03
Speaker
And so you're like, okay, 2022 is our step. We're young. We've got a lot of guys on the ascendancy at fun clubs. And then we're really going to hone in. A bunch of our guys are going to be in our prime in 2022.
00:29:15
Speaker
six And after 2022, yeah, they lose to Netherlands. It's the game, the same game in a lot of ways. And then you're like, okay, we got four years. We're really going to be up for this game. And soccer, international soccer is so, so fickle.
00:29:32
Speaker
You just, it's, you only have these 90 minutes to reflect on eight years whatever. However many years, 20 years, 26 years, 50 years of U.S. soccer to this point,
00:29:48
Speaker
To get, ah you know, since 1994 to 2026, between home World Cups, this opportunity comes. And you have nine minutes to look at. And this is what you get. And it's like, I just know if you play this game 100 times, it's never this bad.
00:30:03
Speaker
But the fact that it was this bad and this game tells you something, doesn't it? You have to read into the fact that the team was not up for it. had very clear weaknesses in key positions it couldn't overcome.
00:30:17
Speaker
and like then And as good as they've come, as far as States has come, everyone can sing the praises of this squad being the most talented squad in history. i don't really think that's a debate. You look at club for club. This team is better than the 0-2 team, better than 10, better than 14.
00:30:33
Speaker
their level They're a level off of a Belgium of the world. Level off the top 10 in the world. And we knew that. We knew that two years ago at the Co-America. We knew that coming in. The hope was that maybe you're closer to 13 and you you could punch a 9 or an 8 and you had that opportunity. And to punch that game, you need to play a disciplined, hard-fought game get your you know stuck in game and they just played the game of like the 60th best team in the world like i mean they played the march game right yeah they play the march game you saw this game it was in march in a friendly and they got yeah and so so like you know it just sounds like loser behavior to say like you play this game a bunch of times it doesn't go this way So, like, I don't, like, you can't really hang, you you have nothing to hold on to from this performance. That is what's so frustrating. You're just going to remember this, like, forever as, like, what?
00:31:32
Speaker
it's Like, and, like, you know, you you want to dole out the blame. You want to do an autopsy. Like, yeah, I think people are going to come to the same things. I think you're going to look at Tim Ream. You're going look at goalkeeper. You're going to look at Pulisic not being quite like,
00:31:50
Speaker
talismanic as you'd hope your best player to be. And then you look at Pochettino. I think Pochettino has been really good. I really do. I think he did a good job in this game and he did a good job for the United States the whole way. I mean, maybe he should have been prepared for this wrinkle, but like, can he control Matt freeze, like doing what he does?
00:32:11
Speaker
And maybe it is his fault. He missing, he mis-evaluates the goalkeeper position, but like, Do I think he'll stay? No. And what comes next for the United States? There's no good answers. It takes a long time to bridge that gap from wherever you are to wherever Belgium is.
00:32:29
Speaker
And it's not something Pochettino can fix. And it's not something that was going to get fixed in the last four years. Just to keep doing the the dirty work. And you've got to develop guys at all 11 positions. And United States the only one that's problem.
00:32:44
Speaker
Brazil got dumped this round. Portugal got dumped this round. you could you can only The only thing you can say is you can have some solace in that. Like, good teams go home in the round of 16. Are you as good as those teams? No, but, like, it's the World Cup. You only get 90 minutes. And so, like, that's the beauty and the hard part of international soccer is it felt like you got to the game and you didn't even play the game. And so, i'm like, that's what you just...
00:33:11
Speaker
you can't like You can't do that. you you You can't do that. You have to be more ready for the moment. And so that is, I think, what everyone is going to feel for a long, long, long time about this team, this cycle, about everything. And the only other thing I'll say before I toss it back to you is the U.S. has had mental focus issues throughout this entire team cycle. They just have.
00:33:32
Speaker
Gold Cup 2024. Big one. big one These players, I have no interest in ragging on them, like their personalities or their or their their mentality in like a general way. But the evidence we have of their underperformances big games, to me speaks to a general like...
00:33:56
Speaker
i don't know what the what the word is. i don't i don't need to over dunk on them, but it's like they just, they haven't been up for the moments of the way they need to be, plain and simple. And that is not the problem for a lot of national teams. And it should never be the problem for your national team.
00:34:10
Speaker
Right. You look across to a lot of other teams in this tournament and you can pick on a lot of different things, but commitment and being up for it are generally not an issue, right? And that, as you said, has been something that We thought the U.S. was past that when we saw how this tournament started, right? And then it comes back in this game. And I don't know if it's not being up for it. I don't know if it's not being prepared for it. I don't know if it's an underestimation. I don't know what it is, if the lights are just too bright. But it's very clear that the mentality wasn't where it needed to be in this game. And that might be the most concerning thing out of all of it.
00:34:51
Speaker
It is. And, you know, I thought Stu Holt and something really interesting. Like these Belgium guys have played in big games before. For the United States, for a lot of these players, is was the biggest game of their careers. And like that is pressure. That simply is pressure. And the only way to deal with pressure, talk to any athlete, is to just be in those situations enough times. And unfortunately, international soccer, you don't, you get four years. And so you've got to find a way to simulate that or to get that and in other ways. And like, I don't think it's fair to say that the United States club players don't play in big games. They do, but more of them need to be playing in big games and more of them need to see a team like Belgium start hot in 10 minutes and not panic.
00:35:34
Speaker
Um, And then I come back to like we've done 36 minutes of podcasting. I hope it's hope it's been interesting. But like Matt Freeze doesn't do that and it's a different game.
00:35:45
Speaker
And so like soccer is a funny, funny sport. Like one position, one moment, one everything can toss everything. 30 years of building out the window and like that. Well, welcome to the World Cup after dark.
00:35:59
Speaker
Right. and And soccer is a funny, funny sport and international soccer in particular is it even funnier, funnier sport. Right. And and yeah, you're exactly right. All of that comes down to these individual moments that help determine all of it. And I think the thing that I kind of come back to here and admit is.
00:36:17
Speaker
like you said, this is an opportunity that just doesn't come around and it's not going to come around. And like, if you thought this one was hard, go do it in four years. were going into a tournament as a pot two team where your draw isn't a yellow brick road of teams in front of you that you're benefiting from the fact that you're the host country and in pot one and the top seated team in your group. Like,
00:36:41
Speaker
I don't know when the U.S. are going to get a chance like this unless one of these draws in this every four-year cycle breaks the right way and they get a favorable round of 16 matchup or they get a favorable group that they win. Like, yes, that could happen because that can always happen.
00:36:59
Speaker
But man, if it doesn't happen this time around, when is it going to happen? It's not. the the The truth of international soccer, it's not. You don't get to just like, yeah, you get your little margins and edges and draws and pots and home fields. But at the end of the day, the way to get to the last eight and the last four of the World Cup is be one of the four to eight best teams in the world. Yeah. And so the answer is like, everyone wants to be Morocco.
00:37:25
Speaker
it's extremely hard and we are not the podcast to do this we could do this on ah a later podcast we could really really get into this you have to build a top 10 team in the world and it takes time and Morocco is a very very unique fertile position for development because of their proximity to Spain and Portugal and pathways. And i will let the United States media the conglomerate explain to you the issue with the United States soccer pathways. But know that you have to get more good guys in your team at better clubs. And
00:38:00
Speaker
That's not a U.S. problem, too. like Again, no solace here, but like Brazil's got a development problem, too. This never stops in international football. You have to problem-solve roster construction if you want to be a top-eight team in the world.
00:38:15
Speaker
And I guess it it kind of circles back to the the point that I was trying to make that if you are hoping and just waiting for one of those draws to break your way, that's not the way to do it. Right. like You can't.
00:38:27
Speaker
i well yeah Oh, well, one of these years, like we're going to be. This isn't Paraguay either. Like yeah like you you got to hold the United States to the standard. It talks. It's standard. It talks itself at.
00:38:38
Speaker
Yeah. And like, yeah, one of these years we'll be in the Uber group of life and we'll come out and and the team on the other side the round of 16 will be a bad third. but Maybe, but like that can't be your, your strategy to make the quarter final shouldn't be that. And I guess that's what I kind of come back to. And so, all right, we've got a four year cycle for the U S they're going to have qualifying this time around. They're going to be playing CONCACAF teams. We're going to see games that we've seen a lot of, and there's probably nothing that the U S could do in the next four years short of making a run to win a Copa America in 2028 that in all likelihood is probably going to be played in the U S there's nothing that the U S can do in those four years to convince you that 2030 is going to go any different until you actually get to 2030 and you get to the round of 16. And hopefully you and I are still doing this podcast a bit. And guess what? We're going go into the world cup and you know what we're going to ask. Can the U S get past a middling to better European team in the round of 16?
00:39:33
Speaker
Let's find out in four years. Yeah, I'm setting the reminder now on my phone not to get punked. Gosh, and it's taken us 40 minutes. This was my Dark Horse team. Congrats to the stink for me.
00:39:45
Speaker
Look, i did I didn't want to to overwrite the credit that you deserve here. like I think there's probably a lot of people to blame for this U.S. performance. You look at Matt Freeze. You look at Tim Ream. You can maybe
Spain vs Portugal: A Tactical Showdown
00:39:58
Speaker
look at Mauricio Pochettino. You can look at Christian Pulisic.
00:40:01
Speaker
You might even be able to look at like Donald Trump, Johnny Infantino playing a role in here somewhere. But man, number one on the list might be you, my friend with the U.S. men's national team, Dark Horse Stink. And just when things were going well, you get around turn three, headed for the home stretch of the Derby, and the horse just goes the other way.
00:40:23
Speaker
It's really hard to predict international soccer. That's one thing for sure. That's one thing for sure. And your record of it has been pretty poor. yeah Just on my dark horses. I got some ball left, but yes, my dark horse picks often flame out spectacularly.
00:40:37
Speaker
And maybe none more spectacular than this. and That's probably the worst part. all alright You want to talk a little Spain Portugal to close this out? Sure. it was ah It was an interesting game in that sense. It was an interesting game in that sense. This game would not have felt out of place at a European championship. It was a very two big European teams going at it with A little bit, but not a lot of bit, right? that the The lineup decision that you and I were so intrigued by kind of turned out to be nothing. Spain made no changes.
00:41:11
Speaker
Portugal made one change, and that was Juan Felix in for Leão on the wing. They played Neto and Cancelo on the right. You know who? Cristiano Ronaldo was up top.
00:41:23
Speaker
And this game kind of went like we expected it to go, which was Spain had the ball. They generally felt inevitable.
00:41:34
Speaker
The other team, in this case, Portugal, was hamstrung by the fact that they couldn't press because their nine couldn't give them pressing minutes. And Spain just kind of slowly made that work their way.
00:41:48
Speaker
Portugal created a couple chances, more so than Spain had seen at any point in this tournament, but never really created consistently over a long stretch. And at the end of the day, it's a very Spain goal with a substitute center midfield making a run that breaks a pair of center backs and gets an easy finish and stoppage time.
00:42:07
Speaker
All right. Yep. Kind of makes sense.
Portugal's Struggles Against Spain's Strategy
00:42:10
Speaker
The whole thing had an air of inevitability around it from the second that Ronaldo is up top and doesn't leave the field for Portugal.
00:42:18
Speaker
Because as long as he's on the field, Portugal are just drawing deader than they should be to a good team. That being said, at any moment, this didn't necessarily mean it had to go that way. But I think you were spot on in describing this game. Like,
00:42:33
Speaker
Portugal never really gets stuck in enough. There are moments, right? There are some shots from distance. And the most telling thing in this game is a one time Nuno Mench gets up the left side and Laminia Paul gets behind him. And it's a great Spain chance. And immediately Nuno Mench is like, I am not allowed to do that again. And then that's where you get to two big European teams playing control off ball.
00:42:58
Speaker
And we said, who's going to win the midfield? Who's going to do all of this? It was Spain in the end. And so At the end of the day, Rodri, Padre, Olmo, particularly Rodri and Padre, have a great, a fantastic game.
00:43:10
Speaker
And I'm feeling good about Spain. I'm feeling better about Spain every game. This is closer to the Spain that can win the tournament. They're going to have a great chance against France at this level. Lamin-Yemal is not 100%, and that's why they're not getting this done as more ruthless as they could. He has a tough matchup against Nuno Manch. He does a really, really great game for him. He goes out hurt in the second half, and Semedo comes in, and even then, Lamin-Yemal is doing better. He's doing better, but he's not quite being his most ruthless most ruthless self.
00:43:45
Speaker
Now, Spain have patterned answers with on ball patterns than anyone ever in the history of international soccer. And that's why this goal is so, so Spain and so, so satisfying.
00:43:58
Speaker
the The sequence where Nuno Men just makes this like channel driving run forward on the left and Portugal look to play this ball dome and it gets picked off. And you just, it's almost like you're just watching it in in in slow motion because it's like, oh, that guy's supposed to be back there. But he's up there, and you know who's in space now back the other way? It's Jamal, and that was a great sequence for Spain. And like you said, that then conditioned the fact that Menzies was like, all right, can't do that anymore because that almost went very poorly. I think Portugal's best sequence of play here is is the double save that they force out of Simone, right? João Felix gets a far post header that he that he puts off Unai Simone's face. And then there's this, like, rebound chip from Ronaldo that is actually really good and is really well done. like He does really well to get the contact on this, and Simone makes this like Superman dive to keep it out of the of the back of the net. I think that's probably the best that Portugal got in this game. And pretty quickly after that, they take a short quarter, and Nuno Mench gets an angle and just rips a rocket that goes off Pedro Porro's head and onto the bar. That's probably the best chance Portugal will get here.
00:45:04
Speaker
Pretty much. I mean, the XG on those ends up being something, right? I think it's going to be Ronaldo's is 0.2. I don't even think they give Joao Felix a shot. So the total for Portugal is 0.6 on the whole. And that just kind of speaks to the the day of like, not really doing that much. And the other thing you can say is like, at some point, Kubarci Le Normand might be gettable and certainly against France, it will be.
00:45:34
Speaker
But the level we keep seeing the level of Ronaldo and like Croatia That chip goal he scored was really, really nice. But outside of that, like, was kind of not the level for him to score. And this definitely was not.
00:45:47
Speaker
He just was was really ineffective. It's more than just that for Portugal, right? It's more than just Ronaldo. But it really was what we said. eleven verse ten at some point adds up. And Portugal just chasing the shadow long enough that they get undone. Yeah.
00:46:06
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, the other thing I was going to add is Leal, I really thought he should start this game. That's a big miss to me for Martinez. I don't know if he and Garcia are like doing the save your attacker for later when you defend and counter, but without Leal, like, Joel Felix is doing nothing on the ball to hurt Pedro Poro.
00:46:22
Speaker
Like, it's a good matchup, but Poro's winning, and Poro's the guy that you can take advantage of of fullbacks in this game for Spain, and so they just weren't getting to that. I don't know if there's a secret minutes restriction on Leal, but, like,
00:46:35
Speaker
Portugal had less outlets to attack. And then the other thing say is that this whole setup that involves Ronaldo as the focal point has totally robbed Bruno Fernandes of his ability to control the game, right? He needs the ball like a good 10 needs the ball and he needs dynamism on both sides. If you had Bruno Fernandes playing balls to lay out, Conte sound Ramos, it might look more like Manchester United where the guy's leading the best league in the world and assists in this game.
00:47:04
Speaker
All he can do is go overload 40 yards, 30 yards from goal, look at Ronaldo and go, that guy's not getting it, and then recycle it around. So what does Bruno Fernandes do in this game? Nothing. And he's pocketed by Rodri. And so you've just limited your super, super strength of midfield, of Fernandes, Vettinia, Joe Neves, into having nowhere to go, especially without Leal and with Ronaldo.
00:47:27
Speaker
Where are they going with the ball when they get it Pedro Neto cuts inside and crosses, like, that cannot be your most dangerous answer. The fact that Gonzalo Ramos plays zero minutes in this game, it like it just doesn't... and Look, we've we've done this show. We've done this conversation. We don't need to go into it yet again, but it just speaks to the fact that like this team is caught in all the aura, shadow, whatever, and it just it limited them, and it continued to limit them, and against a high-level team, you just don't get away with that. like You just don't against Spain, and yes, they're nil-nil, and you're looking like, oh, they might get to extra time here,
00:48:04
Speaker
But it always felt like this was inevitable. Like Spain were always going to do this. And the way that they did it amid, I think is just very satisfying for De La Fuente and very satisfying for Spain because it's all of the guys that he subbed on, right? It's Mikel Moreno, it's... It's Fabian Ruiz. It's Ferran Torres. All of these guys combined together for the goal.
00:48:26
Speaker
And it's very Spain because Barino wins a free kick with his back to goal from Bernardo Silva. And instead of taking forever over it, sending everybody into the box and playing a set piece that Spain probably aren't going to win,
00:48:39
Speaker
They decide, all right, we're just going to play it quick. And they do. And Fabio Ruiz gets it quick. It's quick to Torres. Then it's Marino himself who's making this late center midfield run. And the Portuguese center backs are just nowhere to be found. They're caught split. They're caught out of position.
00:48:54
Speaker
Who makes this run? Spain. Spain is the only team in the world who's making this run. And where's the nine on this? I don't even know where the nine on this play is. And it and it doesn't even matter because it's Mikel Marino is making this run and it's perfectly timed and the ball is just played perfectly the run is timed perfectly and the finish is executed perfectly and this is what Spain is and this game was always going to end in a moment like this And it's satisfying when it came to, right? They're doing all their patterns. They're getting you uncomfortable.
00:49:24
Speaker
And just in the 90th minute off of a short corner is all the disorganization they need, right? Maybe a yard of confusion between the center backs. And you don't expect Marino. Nobody expects Mikel Marino to come through, turn through the center. It's a really, really good goal. It's a really great ball from Torres, as you said. And Rodri's involved here too.
00:49:42
Speaker
And the other thing you could say is you you add it all up. The foul starts from Bernardo Silva playing at the base of midfield, which is also a weird change for for Bobby Martinez. Because i know Bernardo can play in that pivot, but against Spain, he was out-muscled here, and he's a little bit slow off the ball. And you looked at the five saves Martinez made. Yeah, you knew Liao was one. You knew Mendez was one. Cancelo, for sure, was one.
00:50:11
Speaker
Neto had to come off, but ah why is Bernardo Silva your fifth sub? You got to make the fifth sub. has to be Ramos for Ronaldo. Oh, man. And look, the end of the day, like could could Bobby Martinez really have done something else if he was another guy? But he's not. I don't think Bobby Martinez was ever going out a way other than like this. He was going out with Ronaldo and his old guys that he likes and and not getting enough.
00:50:38
Speaker
And now I think we'll get into what will probably be a very interesting era of Portuguese football because the Ronaldo shadow will dissipate. Like there's probably going to be one very eye roll inducing sendoff game for Ronaldo against somebody. But after that, like Portugal might actually get a lock. That's going to be really interesting. They get one chance on the stretch in this match. They finally get a free header for somebody and naturally admit it's a,
00:51:02
Speaker
it's Bernardo silver, Bernardo Silva, who's rising to the the cross from Conte sound. If ever where there was a time to finally cross what in and get Ronaldo to jump up and headed, it was this one, right? Yeah.
00:51:13
Speaker
It was a decent look. I mean, Bernardo Silva is an okay head. He's not a bad, he's a short guy. So like, it's fine. Um, Honestly, Spain controlled this game really well. Their counterpress was really, really effective. like I think De La Fuente and his team are getting the most out of their system. It's got its flaws. It's super idealistic. But it came up against a very technical team today and kind of choked them out of the game. I would love to know what it looks like if it's not Ronaldo, but Spain keep, I think, raising their level per game, which to me is really, really impressive.
00:51:48
Speaker
And they have Belgium next to the quarterfinals, which I think will be really interesting before we get that, you know, idealistic blockbuster of of Spain, France, perhaps in the semifinals. We'll tackle that when we get to it. all right.
00:52:01
Speaker
We've got one more day of the round of 16 to come. A bit tomorrow. Argentina play Egypt. Colombia play Switzerland. If you want our previews of those games, you can find them on our feed, which you can obviously find on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts from. Wait, can I say something? Of course, please.
00:52:21
Speaker
we We might not be good dark horse predictors, me in particular, but we did say on our preview podcast this game could be sided by an X-Factor like a Mikel Marino box crash. So sometimes we do hand out good advice in our previews. That's why you got to listen the preview pods. That's why they do so well. We do good stuff when you break out your tactical chessboard. The people love it. They like it. They enjoy it. Should I have had a chessboard that said don't do goalkeeper walkies? Apparently that sticky note fell off. Wait, wait wait wait a second.
00:52:49
Speaker
This is the same thing that happened to Senegal. Rudy Garcia's got a sheet in his binder that says the other goalkeeper just makes a mistake. What? what he's counting on. It's what he's counting on. It's been pretty impressive from Belgium for sure. If you want to support us, you can do so at patreon.com plus WCAD.
00:53:05
Speaker
mean, I will be back tomorrow night recapping Argentina, Egypt, and Switzerland, Colombia. We will also have our quarterfinal preview, which should be out either tomorrow night or on Wednesday. So be on the lookout for that.
00:53:17
Speaker
This World Cup is wrapping up. I'm it. And I'm kind of getting sad because there's not very many games left. But then I get excited because the games we have left are very big and very good I'm happy. I'm happy to have games that don't involve what I just saw. And so I'm just going to be really excited for the big teams to duke it out for some really, really good soccer to be played and to feel some of that tenseness and delight without it being the United States. And that's okay.
00:53:44
Speaker
You, uh, you know, whose dark horse is still in the tournament? Egypt? That's right. It's going go poorly tomorrow. I'm pretty confident it's going to poorly tomorrow, but my guy's outlasted your guy, so that check one in the Austin Miller box. How is our ah fantasy five aside doing? We'll have to tally up those those players as it goes. I don't even remember. Doomfries out.
00:54:02
Speaker
Fernandez out. I got Kane still cooking somewhere there. I'm doing pretty good, I would bet. Yeah, think you're doing pretty good. Amand Diallo's out. Neither us took early Holland. We're real dumb. Tough. We didn't know how far they were going to get the tournament. That's true. It's just a final. All right. That's it from us tonight.
00:54:22
Speaker
We'll be back tomorrow night. Enjoy the games tomorrow. Thanks for listening. And we'll chat soon. Hope you enjoyed the show.