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WCAD 4-29: Iran on the Bubble
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It's a Frenetic Friday recap on the latest edition of WCAD. Did Norway get it right by sitting their starters? Should we have expected anything different from Uruguay? Will Iran sneak into the Round of 32 on Saturday? Plus, a look at Cape Verde and Senegal sealing their spots in the knockout round, and we namedrop the Toronto Argonauts
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Transcript
World Cup Friday Night Chaos
00:00:01
Speaker
So we've had a night to digest everything that we saw on a frenzied Friday at the World Cup. But a bit I feel like our sentiment waking up this morning of, did we see what we just saw? It still stands.
00:00:14
Speaker
Just a crazy, crazy World Cup after dark and to the Friday night slate. Yeah, still recovering. um I mean, we're going to talk all day about this whole third place table, all the drama. There's been a lot of good discourse about it. But look, you still give us the double barrel. You still give us some madcap endings. We just gobble it all up.
00:00:34
Speaker
I think the overarching third place picture, and we'll get into it in granular detail at the end of the show, right? Our idea today is we're going to go chronologically through everything that happened on Friday. We're going close with Egypt, Iran, and then we'll segue that into the third place discussion, into the expectations of today. There's also a really, really good Columbia-Portugal game that's coming today that kind of has flown under the radar, at least for us, because of the third place implications.
00:00:58
Speaker
The overarching theme is We undercooked the third place projection coming in, right? We said and three minus two, three minus three, three zero is looking like it's not even a safe place to be. And I think it just speaks to the level here and the ability of teams to get results.
00:01:17
Speaker
That's a really good way to put it. Yeah. It's, we talked about having the guy to do the math and as much as we kind of ragged on those teams early who maybe were going off their version of what our version of the numbers were like trying to think that that'll, that'll work.
00:01:34
Speaker
Um, No, teams have been better than expected. I think that's the only way to describe what we've seen. And also the other key thing is just going first is so hard,
Game Theory in World Cup Strategies
00:01:44
Speaker
right? yeah Like settling for that minus three, minus twos, even minus one for Korea, as we're going to talk about, is feeling really, really flimsy by now. So...
00:01:55
Speaker
it's It's been fascinating from a game theory perspective. like We love this stuff and trying to figure it all out. It's been a really interesting exercise. um I think the actual on-field drama and results in the third-place table and some of this third-place double barrel hasn't been quite as full-flowing and crazy as we've wanted But i think this is something FIFA will live with for what's about to come to. And like, it's kind of a natural middle, not low of the World Cup, but like it's, you know, more games. You can't necessarily lock into them all. I think that's okay.
00:02:32
Speaker
This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. I'm Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik. Going into this tournament, rate a lot of the the projections were 90 plus percent if you're at 3-0 to go through. And that might still be the case. That might still be the number for Iran. But let's see. Again, we'll get to that at the end of the
France vs. Norway Analysis
00:02:46
Speaker
show. Let's start with what looked to be a mouth-watering matchup in Group I between Norway and France. We were very excited to see who would win this group.
00:02:55
Speaker
We were looking forward to see Norway's level tested. And then Amit Staley Solvac and said, nah. We're not going to do that. We're going rest 10 guys. We're going to look ahead to the knockout round and France walk out of this one for one winners. I think we have to start with the Norway decision to rest.
00:03:10
Speaker
What do you make of it? I think the justification for it, it was a no brainer, says Solvalken. The justification is Norway have to turn around and play on Tuesday. It's only three days of rest. They might not have won this game anyway.
00:03:22
Speaker
The counter argument is they've got a much more difficult round of 32 game now against Ivory Coast as opposed to Sweden. Where do you stand here? It's a really tricky one. i think generally on football karma, dodging is like not fun. i don't like that. I don't like robbing us of Norway, France, like at full strength.
00:03:43
Speaker
um Just doesn't necessarily sit right with me. That's half of it. The other half is like numbers braid. You know where i'm going. Like, I think the rest advantage is really, really massive. And when you say the next game's on Tuesday, right, that turnaround was three days of rest.
00:03:59
Speaker
you know I'm more inclined to to kind of believe Solbock in here. and The other thing I'll say is you have to be a little bit better than Norway are to feel like you can manipulate the draw.
00:04:11
Speaker
i I think every game in knockouts for most of these teams, and you said this last podcast, outside of what four or five teams... at the 32 teams left, you know, pretty much everyone's going to be in a slog. It's a war of attrition.
00:04:26
Speaker
And i think a big, big theme of the knockouts is going to be the rest advantages
France's Attacking Strength and Future Prospects
00:04:32
Speaker
is going to be who can survive the depth. Can you get through every game unscathed, you know, injuries, cards, things you can or can't control, but you can kind of control that. And that's why for Pochettino, I thought it was very, um, fine. And,
00:04:48
Speaker
as we talk about that and this too, they're they're related somewhat. My point I want to make is I think with this advent of club managers into the game, and I've seen this in regards to the discourse around Pochettino, going to use it with Norway here is that these guys aren't afraid to do things that necessarily, that don't necessarily fly in the international environment. It's the world cup. Every game matters. Three games, group stage. We got to entertain, you know, we got to put on a show and that's what we were hoping for. I say the football karma. We want the show of Norway, France and Bappe Holland.
00:05:17
Speaker
And we just have more and more numbers on the ability to press, the ability to run at a high level on rest and, you know, getting that rotation in really, really matters. This is something that happens when you have to deal with the crazy workload these guys are handling in in their seasons now. So the the truth of it is, i think it's the right move, but...
00:05:40
Speaker
Karmically, it's not going to feel good. And we'll see how it shakes out. Now we've got a lot of team circle that I'm saying, you you better deliver in that first game because of what you've done, right? And so, yeah, i don't ah you know I think the matchup thing, i also, if you're Norway, you're not thinking about it from like game three or four. you're thinking about it for game one. And now I think they feel like they're on more even footing than Ivory Coast who played a day earlier.
00:06:07
Speaker
Yeah, and played a day earlier, right? So there's a significant rest advantage here for Norway. So you mentioned, right, it was Mbappe, Haaland, big stars. Instead, we got Usman Dembele against Frederik André Bjorken, and there was only one winner of that one-on-one matchup event.
00:06:24
Speaker
He put on a clinic today and I think, you know, France are scary. France are so scary. And what they did today was again, remind everyone for the third game in a row, what you're looking at in this front three is absolutely terrifying.
00:06:37
Speaker
Look, I think the big thing here is he's he's on the right side instead of in the 10 behind Mbappe. And he showed you what he could do when he's in space. And I think when he was at the 10, he was struggling to find space on the ball.
00:06:49
Speaker
When you're on the wing, the ball comes to you. And when it came to him one-on-one, he's, He put on an absolute clinic. I mean, just three disgusting, disgusting goals. A first half hat trick for Usman Dembele, a hat trick in 30 plus minutes here. And all three of the goals are cut from the same genre, right? It's Dembele gets the ball on the right.
00:07:10
Speaker
turns into a half space on his left foot, fires, scores. he basically does that three times. The buildup are different on all three of them, but this was France at their finest. And this was them again, getting another guy involved. And this game of it started so well for France that Mbappe had hit the crossbar before the other game in the group even kicked off. Senegal Iraq hadn't even started and Mbappe was already off the crossbar. They smelled blood in the water. They saw a Norway reserve defense and they just took it to them consistently. And the Dembele goals are are such a good sign for this team, I think, because the more attacking players that they get flowing, the more rhythm they find now that they've maybe moved at least more central and Dembele off to the right. This team is scary. There's a reason why they're World Cup favorites. Yeah.
00:07:56
Speaker
Yeah, it's kind of like the final evolution of this front four when coming into the tournament. We're like, oh, how's Turkey going to fit in here? Can you get him on the field? The answer is we don't need him. We can just play with the four guys in front. Then it was ah the Bailey looks kind of hidden. How do we get the most out of him? And now it's like, oh.
00:08:14
Speaker
because Alise's playmaking, I think, allows him to come in the 10, and because they're all smart enough that he can go wherever he wants, and it's fine. And Debele now is much more unlocked here. And in terms of what he's done in the past two years to unlock his, what I'm calling the triple threat ability, think about him four years ago. so He's kind of not like in the picture at the top of threatening of this France team. right It's a lot of Randall Kolomawani. In the last few years at PSG, he's just developed into Ballon d'Or winner. like I think, yes, Mbappe is the the best, like most dangerous player on this team. There's a case that Alisa and Dembele are playing better than him right now. It's not a competition, but more just they don't need Mbappe to go superhero mode. That, to me, is what's really, really scary. It's like...
00:09:05
Speaker
the ego chemistry questions of this team have been pretty resoundingly, overwhelmingly like shut down through three games. So like what, what's, what's their left? It's just, you got to just try to not get
Senegal's Tactical Transformation
00:09:18
Speaker
bounced through five games. But like, I, I don't know what, what the weaknesses are here. I'm really struggling to find it.
00:09:23
Speaker
You mentioned Mbappe doesn't need to go superhero mode, but he can still go superhero mode. And on the second goal, he goes superhero mode because he just shrugs off a challenge. He's getting fouled. He's getting mugged in the midfield. And he just says, yeah yeah, that's fine. And he's kind of like falling down and just plays this perfect pass to Dembele.
00:09:39
Speaker
And then he puts it in the back of the net with his left foot as he does on all three of the goals. Interestingly, after the second goal, France do give up one back the other way. think this is the first ever time I've seen a kickoff set play work in soccer, but that's what happens here. Norway run this this play off of kicking off down 2-0, and France are just kind of meandering, I think, enjoying the fact that they're 2-0 up. Mangan gets wrong-footed by Asgard. Uwe Mekano gets beaten. like I think that is still maybe where we're circling there's a potential weak spot here for France. Yeah.
00:10:09
Speaker
That's the only one Uwe Makano because Saliba you feel good about. And the other thing I don't like what France have done is tinker their midfield enough, right? You're starting to see Kone and Chouameni, a move we had said could work and looks pretty good here again against the Norway B team. And yeah, the center back is the one that you're maybe looking at plus left back. They've also cycled through there too. So we'll see what that ends up looking like.
00:10:33
Speaker
It's early. You know, I don't want to rag on France, but while we have a moment, right? Like, Uwe McConnell is a great physical defender. He just sometimes tends to lose his guy and make really, like, silly marking mistakes. So that's the one the one quibble you you can you can have.
00:10:48
Speaker
But they looked so, so good here. It could have maybe been a different game in the second half. Down 3-1. Norway win a penalty pretty much coming out of halftime. Oscar Bob wins it after a sloppy bit of defending from Theo Hernandez. Strawn Larson, who started as the 9, Jorgen Strawn Larson, steps up and just takes a poor penalty. It's an easy save for Meingen. And that pretty much was that. Douay got a header to make it 4-1 for France. France win the group.
00:11:13
Speaker
They'll play Sweden in the round of 32. Norway finished second. They play Ivory Coast. They're in the quadrant of death alongside Brazil and Japan. France, Sweden feels like France like can just run this back against the same level of defense.
00:11:27
Speaker
Yeah, I think Sweden acquitted themselves well against Japan, but that was like i played a really good game against the slightly not 100% motivated Japan team. And it was 1-1. And we saw kind of what happened when Sweden came up against the Netherlands that they just got bullied.
00:11:42
Speaker
Well, now it's another level. So I think Graham Potter will pull out all the stops to try to make it as difficult as possible. I don't see it getting very far. I'd be struggling to find anyone that could think that, I think. Norway-Ivory Coast might be one of the games of the round of 32. We've got a couple already that we've really circled and highlighted, but man, that one's going be such a good matchup.
00:12:02
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, i' just just laughing thinking about it. That Ivory Coast-Germany game was excellent. Ivory Coast-Ecuador was excellent. Norway-Senegal was excellent.
00:12:14
Speaker
I mean, you kind of just smash all those three games together and you're they're all the the levels are close. And this one's somehow better than all of them. I mean, I'm really sad to lose one of those teams at this round, truly. Like, you know, two of the the dark, not even dark horses, but like, yeah, two of them my favorites. so it's going to be fun.
00:12:32
Speaker
it's ah what It's the old Darren Rommel tweet, right? Like, ah this is bad for the tournament, but great content, right? Losing one of those teams is going to be great out 32 content. Other game in this group amid Senegal 5-0 winners over Iraq. Coming into the game, Senegal knew that they had to win and that given where the third-place table was, they should probably do it by at least three goals. Maybe took them a little longer than we expected, particularly given the fact that they had scored in the first five minutes and were playing against 10 men after 10 minutes. But eventually they blew the house down with a strong second half performance and they're through to the round 32.
00:13:06
Speaker
Yeah, I thought this was a really good game for the team and Poptia and like the way they responded to what had went wrong for them in two games. Because coming in to the group, you could have said, you might not get the points you want. You're going to need a big thing on the final day. They might have thought that the whole camp. but then you have to go on and do it with a lot of pressure on you, a lot of outside noise. you know Some of these players have had poor tournaments. Nico Jackson, Kulabali, Mendy. Poptia is getting a lot of
African Teams in the World Cup
00:13:32
Speaker
questions. And guess what? He just dumps all the players in the lineup who have not really been playing well. And he makes a lot of changes. And then even after the slow first half, I thought the response from halftime was everything in this game.
00:13:44
Speaker
Iraq goes down to 10 and I think actually makes it more difficult by not trying to play. They're just fully bunkered. And Senegal are looking labored is the word that you used to me yesterday. And I thought that made a lot of sense.
00:13:56
Speaker
But they just kind of turned up the physicality and counter press after halftime. And eventually they just kind of catch Iraq in
Uruguay's World Cup Downfall
00:14:04
Speaker
a tough moment. And then the the doors open and everyone feels good now by the end of it.
00:14:08
Speaker
So the changes that they make, right? And by comes in on the right. Sar plays striker, Nico Jackson benched, Kulavali dumped in defense. Jacobs comes in at left back. Maury Shaw comes in and goal for Mendy who got hurt obviously, and came off in the last game. And then the midfield three ah of Gade, Diar and Kamara. And right away it has success, right? Because three minutes in lineup or not, it's, it's a start that you want, right? Great corner kick. Yeah.
00:14:33
Speaker
Very crowded box. And Habib Diara... So it's sec with the header falling down. And then Habib Diara pokes it into the back of the net. And it just bounces it and goes over the head of Basel. That's one nil And then it just gets worse for a rack, right? Because in the ninth minute, it's it's a throw-in. Senegal played two headers really well. And Sadio Mane gets...
00:14:49
Speaker
free in behind Sulaka and Sulaka just turns and tugs it down. And what happens there is it's initially a yellow card and then they go to the VAR monitor and they see that there probably wasn't a recovery defender that was going to deny Mane a clear chance. And so it's a red. So 10 minutes in Senegal are one goal up and one man up and you feel like, all right, this going to be pretty easy.
00:15:08
Speaker
Yeah, it's the the dream start and it's the nightmare start for Rock. and the only thing is like they didn't even have to show that their lineup was necessarily better or not. Like they're just kind of gifted immediately what you want. And the The only thing is that the Senegal midfield was very up for it through 10 minutes. You could just see they were dominating the game. I think that's Kamara for sure.
00:15:30
Speaker
Plus, um you know, Gay and Diara, like they were all over this game. And this is what we had hoped to see from Senegal, what we saw for them in calf qualifying. I think when it's the team of the level of Iraq, like you start to see that they could just shut down the field exactly into the spaces they want you to play in.
00:15:48
Speaker
But you're right. I think ah Iraq really went into a shell down to 10. Like they knew there really wasn't anything back in this game. They venture forward a couple times. They asked for a red card to try and make things even. It that obviously doesn't come out. you're You're not getting that call against SEC.
00:16:01
Speaker
But I think that kind of helped them see out the rest of the first half. And really, there's only one moment of the second half that that really caught my eye. And that's more at the Senegal goalkeeper just dropping an absolute 60-yard dime with his arm. And it's it's unfortunate to admit that this game was in Toronto and not in an American stadium because we could have made a ah an American quarterback comparison. But don't worry, I got you. Look, I'm like Chad Kelly, the Toronto Argonauts quarterback.
00:16:27
Speaker
Thank you. Let's see it in training camp. Can we get Moritia to have a contest? I mean, this was an awesome pass. Just go find it somewhere. I mean, it was a dime to a buy and sending our waste to the chance.
00:16:38
Speaker
We love our little goalkeeper moments. They've provided us a lot of joy so far I know longtime lister of the show, Big Joe, is going to like the ah the Chad Kelly reference that he just got there with the Toronto Argonauts. Maybe be the only lister of the show that's getting the Chad Kelly Toronto Argonauts. That's for you, Joe. I know you listen to every show.
00:16:54
Speaker
So we go to the halftime. We go to second half. And you're kind of thinking – all right, get a little sweaty for Senegal. Do they know they need to get all these goals? Like they should really start getting these goals. And the second half just kind of turns into a Senegal exercise, right? And the midfield just really, I think continues the takeover that they had so far. So in 56th minute, 10 minutes in, Iraq are just caught trying to get out of their own box, right? And Zidane Iqbal is trying to juggle air touches backwards 25 yards from goal. and It's just not a great situation to beat against this midfield. So Kamara rips it off him. Kamara makes a great center drive all the way to the end line. He just cuts it back for Saar.
00:17:32
Speaker
Saar reads the run the whole time, and that was just kind of the pressure valve release that Senegal needed. for the 10 minutes before it had just been knocking on the door. Like they really upped their game. And this one was just kind of the full trapping you in, uh, to the, to the counter press. And i think that the adjustment is in the first half. It was like, Senegal were struggling to overload the wide areas, struggling to enter the box. It was like,
00:17:57
Speaker
Mane maybe gets to dribble from 25 yards. And this one, it was like, just put five guys like our striker and our two midfielders and then another full two fullbacks, pin them on the Iraq back five. Then they can't go anywhere. And if they try to go anywhere, they just run into our three midfielders who run everywhere and get the ball.
00:18:16
Speaker
It was so, so much better 10 minutes in. And then, yeah, this just felt like Okay, now we've got to, they've spent all their energy in their first half chasing us. Like they can't escape. They can't hurt us the other way.
00:18:28
Speaker
Now we might as well just turn this into, you know, like you said, a ah training exercise type vibes here. And that's what happens. and and Chia, to his credit, makes a trio of subs, brings on fresh legs. He brings on Illman and Dai, a player that you had been calling for all tournament. He brings Nico Jackson on in this kind of game state. And he brings on Pap Gay. And Pap Gay says, thank you very much. I'll have a little goal show here. Wow.
Cape Verde's Strategic Play
00:18:52
Speaker
Yeah.
00:18:52
Speaker
I know what Pap Gay was doing before this game. He had a phone on the – not actually, but he had a phone in the dugout. He was watching Uzman Debele. And he was like, ooh, can I get to try some of that today? um I mean, two two great, great hits of his own, right? Yeah.
00:19:06
Speaker
Two absolutely great hits of his own. So he picks out an absolutely stunning curler into the left corner from the right half space. This is a goal that we're seeing a lot in this tournament, right? You mentioned the the similarities there with Dembele. And then he just slams a satisfying half volley. Maybe the best half volley strike we've seen in this tournament. These are great goals all around. Like maybe Wilson Isidore's rip has been the best, but from pure ball speed, just ridiculous here from Gaye.
00:19:31
Speaker
He just like catches the timing of the half volley. It's such a satisfying thing. And it's like spitting into the the side netting, top netting, like, oh my gosh, that that that was an awesome strike. And I mean, sometimes Pop Gay comes out and does this for Senegal. I do feel like...
00:19:50
Speaker
there was quality in this team a bit more than they had seen. And the way in the aggregate that they put up eight goals in five games feels like they ran it up on a rock against three games. Where you getting five games? are Three games. Eight goals in three games. They scored five against Iraq. And it feels like that number kind of...
00:20:09
Speaker
is a bit crooked lopsided but I think of the aggregate right there maybe we're like a due for just a little bit of ball striking luck because a lot of teams have been getting ball striking luck this tournament and you can call it luck too like I think guys are figuring out we can hit this thing if we we we do it the right way Pop Gay has clearly been practicing And your guy, Elman, and Dai gets the fifth.
00:20:29
Speaker
And it's a great hit of his own. And I think in Dai, where he's most dangerous is when he's dribbling in transition at defenders. You see this at Everton. You've seen this before for Senegal. Maybe the games that they've been playing haven't been right for him, but...
00:20:43
Speaker
His kind of one weakness, he's a great dribbler, not a great finisher. Wow, he looks pretty good on this one. This is his right foot, not a curler, just smashes it for power. It's the fifth. Everyone's happy. um And look, he got 30 minutes here. That's all I was asking for. Don't don't cut him to 10. Thanks, Poptow, who I thought coaxed this perfectly.
00:21:02
Speaker
A really good halftime adjustments, right? You could really tell that they came out in the second half with more intensity and played the press. So Senegal get to three points plus two, which is significant here because, again, we started this show talking about 3-0 might not be good enough. So they got enough goals, which was what we had hoped from them, what they had hoped from this game to get through. And now they are a swing third place team here. They could play England. They could play Belgium. They could still play Portugal, Columbia. That will depend on which teams end up going through. They're kind of going to sit and wait out today and see what their matchup is.
00:21:33
Speaker
But you feel like there's a little bit of momentum going into the round of 32 for this team. I mean, after two tough games to have this, now also I think the changes Chaw made set them up to play more of their more dangerous
Belgium's Dominant Performance
00:21:48
Speaker
11. Like, we'll see if Jackson starts again.
00:21:51
Speaker
i don't know how you could look at the Mane, Saar, and bye front line and not want to see that again because of the balance there and the midfield there. So...
00:22:01
Speaker
They're closer to that team, I thought, at the start of the tournament, to the team that won the AFCON, to the team that's the best team in Africa, an Africa that's loaded with Morocco and Ivory Coast and Egypt.
00:22:12
Speaker
I mean, are they better than those teams? I don't know. But like now you're in the conversation. So, yeah, you don't want to be the team that sees sees this team and in your round of 32 game. It's going to be really hard.
00:22:24
Speaker
Shifting across to Group H amid the Marcelo Bielsa Uruguay supernova universe black hole explosion is only ever going to end one way. and And we tried to coax it into Uruguay. This group is weak enough that they'll get out of it and then it'll happen in the round of 32.
00:22:41
Speaker
In the end, they don't even get to the round of 32. They're dumped from a group that contains Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia. They don't win a single match at this tournament. They finish on two points. They are out of the third place table. And against Spain, Uduguay did a lot of things in this game.
00:22:57
Speaker
They choked off space. They created some chances going forward. Too many of those chances ended in Darwin Nunez trying backheel things, which wasn't their most successful way to score.
00:23:08
Speaker
But in the end, they're let down by an individual mistake in goal from Fernando Musilera. And then the strings just coming untied in the last five minutes, as they generally always do when Uruguay are eliminated from a major tournament.
00:23:20
Speaker
did Should we have ever expected this to go any other way? No. I mean, in a vacuum, yes. you A team like Uruguay with this talent and a quote-unquote good manager, yes. But I'm going to be honest. like I feel like you've been on this from like a year and a half ago, reading the tea leaves. and You know Uruguay, you know Bielsa. You've kind of been saying, like this is the late stage of the Bielsa cycle. This is what's happening. This is going to happen. and Maybe we thought this would generally end up
00:23:52
Speaker
in the second place team from this group goes to play Argentina. That would' have been Uruguay. It would have been a spectacular flame out. We know how it goes. That's maybe the one surprise, but like, I feel like, you know, tell, tell her like, like, you know why this was going to happen? It just, I don't want to say it was not obvious, but ah like, please just explain, please explain. yeah So you've got a hardheaded manager in Marcelo Biel. So you've got a hardheaded group of players. They've clashed multiple times throughout this cycle. They clash at this tournament. It feels like they clash before the third game. Yeah, even the press to the press before the third game, there's leaks coming. We don't like this style. And i'm like, it's too late to say that.
00:24:32
Speaker
Should have done something about it beforehand, before you had to go and play Spain here. And so, like, Bielsa sets this team up to play a bit more defensive, which is apparently what the players had wanted. And it doesn't work in the first half. And they get more attacking the second half, and they have some joy. And so, you just have this push and pull tug of all of these super big personalities. But the talent also just...
00:24:54
Speaker
isn't really there and they're missing midfield dynamism. Obviously, yeah Georgian De Arascaeta was a big miss for Uruguay. The fact that they got zero minutes from him in this tournament, I think really mattered. And so this is a team that at the end of the day, their best attacking threat in this tournament is Agustin Canovio. It's like, he's a fine running kind of player, but it's just not the level that you need to to make an impact when it gets to this. And so it's Canovio, it's Arrujo. They're not really great.
00:25:21
Speaker
Bielsa yanks Valverde in the second half, who is technically like is probably this team's best player on paper. Darwin Nunez goes 90 minutes here and gives them again, a couple of like weird backheel attempts and nothing else. And then the biggest thing is Fernando Muslera, who was at fault for the goal where where Cape Verde come back into the game. Yeah.
Egypt vs. Iran Drama
00:25:51
Speaker
then after maybe they're trying to to get u e simone and in some bad spots erqui in this game they're getting the result that they need right they could have put themselves in a three zero spot in the third place table. But then it's Alex Baina, who's just kind of falling backwards against four guys. It's not a super dangerous position, decides to shoot and it just bounces. And Fernando Musler just flubs it into his own net.
00:26:15
Speaker
And you're like, what? That's how you're getting got. It's catastrophic, stunning collapse. And i mean Why Muslera too? like like What was the the impetus there? or i mean It's really hard to to understand goalkeeping analysis and selection from a manager, but like i feel like I could have told you Muslera was mistake-prone before this, right?
00:26:41
Speaker
There'd been some clashes with BLC and Sergio Rochette apparently who was at some point. yeah yeah and And again, I don't know that Rochette is a significantly better shot stopper than Mooslera is, but you mentioned Mooslera's mistake prone and it just reared its ugly head at this tournament. And this is like...
00:26:56
Speaker
Look, you don't have to super overanalyze this. You have to make this save. Like you are a professional goalkeeper at the World Cup. Like this is a save that you have to make. And it's so bad that coming out of halftime, Bielsa yanks Muslera and brings on Rochette. And that's just kind of when it's Bielsa just throwing the touch paper and just lighting it on fire and saying, we're going out my way because your way clearly players hasn't worked.
00:27:21
Speaker
so funny. Like, I just... Yeah, it's the ultimate, like, man, I messed up. You messed up. No one's happy. Here's 45 minutes. Go for it. I don't even care anymore. Yeah, like you said. And it the second half is...
00:27:34
Speaker
pretty stale, right? Yeah. I mean, like they, they, they, they try to go double nine, right. They they take Valverde off to bring on Venus. De La Cruz comes on for Ugarte who, who got a knock on the goal that Musler gave up. uru guy Right. They, they put some screws on Nicholas De La Cruz. I think it's a decent chance from distance. The 85th minute, um,
00:27:53
Speaker
Ferran Torres could have killed this off for Spain, and he puts it off the bar. And then there's only five minutes of added time, which felt like a real undercut here. Like, this probably should have been eight or nine minutes of added time. And now Uruguay can kind of sense it, and so the challenges just start flying in. So De La Cruz sees yellow on a challenge that he could have seen red, and Canovio's like, well, we're Uruguay. We can't go out of a tournament without a single red card. And so he just dives in on a double-footed, like, just a classic...
00:28:20
Speaker
You could have gotten sent off like three times on this play, essentially, is what I'm saying. You get sent off for the challenge, could have gotten sent off for the actors, then could have gotten sent off for what he does on the touchline. Like, this is just the Uruguayan collapse. We all knew would happen.
00:28:33
Speaker
they They always kind don't want to say always, but they do go out like this pretty frequently. They always do. i mean They always, always do. Okay, well, you you're you're, I think, allowed to to give them the qualifier, having been familiar with them for a long, long time. um Yeah, this is...
00:28:48
Speaker
It is you know, you hear both of us kind of, I'm like struggling to come to put into words, but you're just like, I think fairly like this is what they do. And I think that is truly at the end of the day, like maybe the only way that this could go. And,
00:29:02
Speaker
It's also not this game, right? It's the draw against Cape Verde and the draw against Saudi Arabia, where you saw the weaknesses of their approach laid out twice that too. So kind of a spectacular flame out. That's what it is. It's interesting because Uduguay obviously grabbed the headlines. They are, I think, the biggest team to get dumped in the group stage, right? They're a former World Cup champion. Although, come on, the last time they won the World Cup was in 1950. It's not like they're on the same level as other World Cup champions, but that's okay.
00:29:30
Speaker
Spain kind of flies under the radar here. I thought this was a fine Spain performance, right? They understood that they had Lamin-Yemal against Juan Sanabria and Juan Sanabria plays for Real Salt Lake, which again... like Again, I probably shouldn't rag on MLS like this, but come on.
00:29:45
Speaker
Uruguay can't be starting an MLS left back in a must win game. It's just not the level they need. and So I think they tried to exploit that a little bit. Ouer Thalbel kind of floated in and out, didn't get a bunch here. Baena is the one who ends up getting the goal. He's kind of a weird fit with this lineup.
00:29:59
Speaker
They're not super attacking. They're playing Mikel Moreno, Rothery and Peyton. This was a fine Spain performance. it It just kind of feels like they weren't the headline. Basically, and I think that's credit to De La Fuente. He's just looking across the way and he's like, guys, just just let what's what's about to happen happen. And sometimes that's the best approach.
00:30:17
Speaker
Yeah, I think Spain have kind of generally just been in first gear. It's been very France-like from Spain and not in terms in terms of doing nothing, but in terms of ramping up. And some of that is the Lamine-Yamal-Basar.
00:30:34
Speaker
heliocentrism to the whole thing right and so i mean today he he's a bit better right he's he's kind of leading it but they're not fully fully dangerous yet i think they have gears they can get to um obviously the tape they put on show for the first half against satir is the best tape but that's also the first half against satir so think there's a lot of questions for this team i'm not feeling great about them but today they understood the assignment and that's enough And that was gets them into the round of 32, and now we're kind of reassessing, okay, what do we think the Spain team will actually give us in the round of 32? And an interesting matchup comes up with what we'll see from either Algeria or Austria, the round of 32. The path feels fairly open for Spain. It didn't just end at the full-time whistle. Obviously, in this game, we saw the scenes from Canobio.
00:31:20
Speaker
Marcelo Bielsa went off at a big hoff. He clashed with the the flash, which like... We should not be flash interviewing Marcelo Bielsa postgame. Like, just let that one go. It's okay. The broadcast holders will be okay with it. He's just asking for it. um Yeah, we like this. Again, Al-Udawai is really the only way to say it. They went out as we we knew that they would. The other game in this group, Amit, ends in a nil-nil draw for Cape Verde against Saudi Arabia.
00:31:44
Speaker
Given the Udawai result, that draw means Cape Verde go through in second place in this group on three points with a zero goal differential. This game felt like a calf qualifier, but at the World Cup, right? Like the World Cup trappings are there. There's these massive flags at center field. They've got the the cover in the center circle. It's a huge 60,000 seat stadium. It's got a roof. It's air conditioned. The broadcast is coming through in HD. There's competent commentary. There's VAR. It feels like a World Cup game.
00:32:14
Speaker
And then on the pitch, it just looks like we're're we're watching Cape Verde, Libya on a March afternoon. Right? Right. Like that's what this game felt like. And to Cape Verde's credit, they've got a lot of experience playing that game and they see the result out as they needed to.
00:32:28
Speaker
Yeah, this is unfortunately the level of Saudi Arabia because they need this game. They need a win. Cape Verde is like, well, they're a tough team, but like this is not like some like impossible assignment for Saudi Arabia. It's not like they need to beat Spain in their last game or Uruguay. They've gotten the the weakest team available to them in the group, and they're just really struggling to create. They get about...
00:32:51
Speaker
let's say three half chances over the course of 90 minutes against Cape Verde. So like that to me is the level of Saudi Arabia who, you know, I think did their best, but like in the end, the final XG isn't that high for them either. Right. It's about 0.4% or just to start there. That's a must win game. So like,
00:33:11
Speaker
Cape Verde, I think the the analogy you want to use is holding serve. They did this in calf qualifying. They know how to set up their guys defensive. And they also use the ball, I thought, really well in safe defensive possession to make Saudi Arabia chase, to tire out the top line players, to tire out the very weak Saudi Arabian press. So like this is the calling card of Cape Verde and why they're successful in calf. why they're successful here is that they their style is not so ah rigid, right? They can defend with the ball. Their tech technical quality on the ball makes it so that they're not just like bunkering like so many teams around their level have to do, like play like a much more one-dimensional style. They're like...
00:33:56
Speaker
I don't know what their true ranking like is. It's clearly a lot better than we thought. um They play like a top 20 team in the world. even The talent is not. like I'm not trying to say they're top 20 in the world. But the way they play is like a much more silkier European side. And they have a lot more composure than a lot of...
00:34:18
Speaker
If you had told me what they're the 12th best team in calf coming into this and like they play, i'm they're also clearly not at the talent of those big boys, like the Ivory coasts, the Senate Gauls, the Egypts, the Morocco's, but there's somewhere close there. And I think their back lines quality on the ball has been excellent. That to me is their calling card of the tournament and their midfield engine, which is something we actually had always said about them. And because of that combined,
00:34:45
Speaker
It's a really, really tough team to crack. like Also, I think the one thing you were seeing in this game, they were tired from from two games, right? They had spent so much energy chasing. And Babista just makes a bunch of subs right at the right times, and they keep that level up. So really, there's not a lot for Saudi Arabia to get their foot into this game. Salam Aldasari is really stuck in this game trying to try to get the ball and dangerous spots and he can't. And then the other, you know, Mondash is on the right wing and he's the one guy who has space and he's not doing a lot with it. And overall, pretty comprehensive outside of what, maybe one moment in the ninetieth minute?
00:35:21
Speaker
Yeah, and for Cape Verde, I think you would have liked to have seen them score in this game, right? I think like that would have just been a much more comfortable situation for them to be in down the stretch here because they kind of spend this game where they're one goal away from things going wrong, whether it's from Saudi Arabia, whether it's from Uruguay.
00:35:37
Speaker
But as you said, they're very controlled. And the thing with their level is the type of team that it takes to get them to play bunker ball is very high. and You saw it in this group, right? They bunker balled against Spain and they pulled it off.
00:35:49
Speaker
But they didn't have to do that against Uruguay. And obviously they didn't have to do that here. And that just is such a testament to what Bubista has done. And yeah, I mean, look, this is Pico Lopez and Dine Borges center backs. And these guys are right. Like Pico Lopez is 34 and playing at Shamrock Rovers.
00:36:05
Speaker
And Dine Borges is 31 and playing at Albatay. And these guys are legitimate center back in this tournament. Like they are legitimately putting in performances. It's so, so good what they've gotten out of this team.
00:36:16
Speaker
I think, yeah, like I said, I would have liked to have seen them get something going forward, but I think they understood that they didn't need to risk it. And so when they attack, they're always five or six back. And where can Saudi Arabia hurt you in this game? It's really only in transition. And if you don't give them space to exploit, they're never really going to be able to get a tooth in.
00:36:35
Speaker
Yeah, and that's why they were only going forward with four. And it was, like you said, a bit frustrating. But even then, even going forward with four against the ball, they still put up 1.4 XG. I thought in the second half, there's about two golden chances that you'd think either one of them would be the one that they create. um the The first one is a really good counter for Nuno Da Costa, who comes on. This is right after the subs around the 60th minute. He gets behind the Saturday defense. He picks out a streaking layer, Duarte, who also is subbed in.
00:37:05
Speaker
This is a good save from Alois. And I think Duarte maybe just has to touch it a bit earlier. And then also in the 95th minute, this probably juices the XG. There's a empty net here that is just missed from Da Costa after Saturday had kind of collapsed and it's a wide open goal. So maybe that, you know, it still counts for the XG in the 95th minute. But like, I guess it's fair to say that in the 94 before that, they probably weren't looking so deserved in the stat. um Look, I think it's enough and maybe be fortunate that the game states in the other game, to your point, worked out, right? What if they have to do something? i think we would have known it would have happened in terms of how they approached it. Would they have gotten the goal? Maybe then you're in a little bit of hot water, but they weren't.
00:37:48
Speaker
They weren't. And it speaks to the depth. And it's something we've talked about with this team, right? where Whereas we've seen a lot of teams really rely on 11 guys or only like Helio Varela comes in and puts in another shift. Nuna DaCosta puts in a shift. Gary Rodriguez comes in. Ryan Mendes, who started, was great. And like their best player on paper is probably Dillon Livermento. And he hasn't had a great tournament, right? Like he hasn't really been there. for Cape Verde at this tournament. Even without him, they've managed to get out of this group. Look, the challenge now for Cape Verde is they're going and playing Argentina.
00:38:20
Speaker
They've taken two draws off World Cup champions already, but with the leg situation, they're going have long rest, right? They get an entire week off before Friday. That probably helps them. But look, that task is is monumental. But look, you dreamt this far. Why not keep going?
00:38:34
Speaker
Exactly. That's the beauty of the World Cup. Look, there's going to be some bloodbats in the round of 32, and then there's going to be some sharks versus minnows or sharks. Right. how to get worked Exactly. i was what the minows are called the shark Yeah, got before yeah exactly. But ah look, you know how that's going to look. And it's incredible that Cape Verde can play that game and make it interesting. So let's see. It'll be super fun to see exactly how far the dream continues, because I don't think you would count them at 100 percent. Right. So it'll be fun.
00:39:03
Speaker
All got to the Argentine Federation, big Chiquitapia. He's in some some legal trouble here in Argentina. Might have been taking some money from places he should have been taking money from. He's looking at this saying, you guys laughed at me when I played all those mid-level African teams before the World Cup. And look what we get in the round of 32. It's a mid-level African team. He knew. That's why he scheduled Mauritania and Zambia before the World Cup. Yeah, yeah. Points ahead. Chiquitapia knows, man. Don't doubt this guy. Saudi Arabia, admit they are who we thought they were. I think it's really interesting.
00:39:29
Speaker
They have a home Asian cup coming up in in six months time. Like that's our next major tournament is on the horizon. Obviously, we'll have plenty of time to get there, but just doesn't feel like their level is really where it needs to be. And this was a game that they had to have and they just didn't have anything.
00:39:44
Speaker
Yeah. They have kind of been on this downswing since 2022, which peaked and it's the same players and they plus Qatar need to like redo their whole development, not like the whole system, but they need to bring in new players from the ground up. And it's unfortunate that there's a big tournament six months. Cause I don't think they're going to do that. They're just going to do this again. It'll be fine, but it's not going to be anything different or growth. So it's a, it's a weird time. They, they,
00:40:11
Speaker
and We can talk more about Saudi Arabia's like whole deal at another time, but there's, you can see the arc for them is now back towards like 2034. Right. So it's i got eight years to go. So it's probably going to be two or three or four tough years.
00:40:28
Speaker
and probably two or three or four, maybe five managers before we get there. But that's just how it goes in Saudi Arabian football. All right, the last group we've got to talk about, bit was by far the most dramatic action that we saw. Let's start with Belgium, New Zealand, and and get this kind of out of the way because of the easier game to break down of the two. Did you watch Belgium, Iran?
00:40:46
Speaker
Did you watch Belgium, Iraq? You got the exact same game here, but with Jeremy Doku on the pitch, and with a much less organized opponent, and the result is a 5-1 win for Belgium.
00:40:58
Speaker
Well done, I think, for Belgium here. um I think Big Rom makes a big difference coming on in the second half of this game, but it's also already kind of done at this point. I had said this about New Zealand. They kind of got one and a half halves out of their really surprising style.
00:41:13
Speaker
And even though Belgium are a bit slow in the back line, i thought the center backs take away wood here. And then once that kind of goes, there's nothing for New Zealand to hang their hat on. And then it's... You know, Belgium kind of just slowly, methodically working their way through.
00:41:30
Speaker
Like we're counting on Sapri Singh and Ryan Thomas to make plays without Chris Wood. And that's just not going to work against a team. And it could have been worse for Belgium, to be completely honest. um They had a shout for a penalty early that got waved off on VAR. But then their initial goal comes from really poor Seppi's defending from from New Zealand. Max Krokum, the New Zealand goalkeeper, just gets completely lost on a corner from De Bruyne. He doesn't come for it, but he also like isn't tracking the shot and he's just kind of like stationary in the center.
00:41:56
Speaker
And then it's this far post ball and it it bangs off Tim Payne and Trossard pounces. Trossard was good in this game, right? He gets this goal. He ends up getting the second goal. He was maybe Belgium's most dangerous player here.
00:42:08
Speaker
Tons of Belgium opportunities get blocked in this game, whether it's Trussard, whether it's De Bruyne, or whether it's De Ketsel, or who who started as the nine, they see a ton and they have a ton of it blocked. I'm still not feeling great about this Belgium team based on what I've seen here, but eventually they do.
00:42:23
Speaker
the The amount of pressure they put on New Zealand eventually breaks. And so New Zealand make two changes at halftime. Singh and Thomas come off, Randall and Old come on. Maybe they're looking to to double nine Chris Wood. Chris Wood was really ineffective here. He really just didn't get on the ball. They really weren't even able to play those long balls. And so the first chance the second half for Belgium and they take it. Well, well it's actually their second because the first is a shot from Tristard that's blocked. But immediately after he instinctively stabs at it and scores, Max Krokom again is frozen. So with Belgium 2-0 up in this game, with what's happening in the other game at this point, which is a one one draw
00:42:57
Speaker
Belgium should go for one more to win the group because a three goal win for Belgium coupled with an Egypt draw would put them in the top spot. And they do. And finally, a shot from Kevin De Bruyne doesn't get blocked. He puts it through the legs of Sermon for 3-0. But just when you think it's all good for Belgium, just when they're three goals up and it feels good, i mean they give one up because of course they do.
00:43:17
Speaker
It's just the the Belgian way and credit to New Zealand. This is a crazy hit too. Elijah just had a really great tournament. He's the guy you're coming out of this tournament thinking, oh, that guy can play. And so he slaps an absolute rocket into the back of the net for 3-1. But Big Rom comes on and says, don't worry.
00:43:35
Speaker
I got this. We're fine. It's 3-1. We need one more. He finally comes on. It's a bit of a late introduction, as you said, Amit, but it's the difference maker in this game for Belgium. And Romelu Lukaku, in the 86th minute after Justin just just one pulled one back in the 84th, gets open on a header, and Sermon, in the New Zealand defense, who just didn't have a great day, just loses him. And you just can't lose big Romelu Lukaku. He's the biggest guy on the pitch, and he just kind of slides into a free spot and and puts a header in the back of the net for 4-1.
00:44:03
Speaker
I think that's how you draw it up for Belgium. And Sermon had been really good for New Zealand before. He's this kind of nice story. He's at Portland Timbers. He's an interesting center back. But unfortunately, to your point earlier, and I you know i think MLS has acquitted itself generally well here.
00:44:19
Speaker
Finn Sermon trying to track Romelu Lukaku, it's a different story, right? Yeah. Yeah, it apparently um I'm finding out that Belgium scored a fifth goal in this game from solid markers. I have no idea what happened. I was so locked in on Egypt, Iran. So you're just going to have to trust. You're just going to have to trust whoever it is that says that they made this 5-1. It ended up of not having a big reaction. I got nothing else. to add here i think for new zealand it really was the the one and a half halves they honestly played well in those games this one was tough when they just knew they needed a second or third runner and the fact that they had to sub those guys off at halftime shows that even that wasn't working um i think the one thing you have to do is give a little bit of credit to rudy garcia i mean he's not been great so far but he kind of
00:45:03
Speaker
has the right game plan to completely shut off New Zealand. He'd clearly been paying attention. His midfield pressing and running, even from his slow legs in midfield, to deny the long ball was the biggest thing here. Then he gets kind of the little rotational pieces right. Trossard, like you said, was really enabled to have a good game.
00:45:20
Speaker
There is something with this team. If it's Salamaker is on one wing and Doku on one wing and Trossard in the 10. De Bruyne has just a little bit of help next to him. If it's not Yuri Tielemans, I'm just so tired of him. i know he's a good player, but I don't want to see him. And then you protect the back line a little bit.
00:45:38
Speaker
There's just kind of the shape of a top 10 team, a very, very vulnerable top 10 team, but it's just there. And honestly, at this point, like that's all you could ask for for Belgium is get yourself in a game. Try, try this game model and it might work.
00:45:53
Speaker
And the path for Belgium is probably the most open path to the quarterfinals that there is in this World Cup knockout stage. So they'll start having won the group. They'll start against a third place team. It's not set yet. It could be South Korea if they get through. Could end up being Senegal. if That would be really interesting because we'd just run that low block game state back out, but with a much more destructive midfield on the other side. Could be Austria. It could be Austria. so there's a lot of we don't know what the round of 32 game looks like for Belgium. But if they get past that, then it's the U.S. or Bosnia.
00:46:22
Speaker
And that U.S.-Belgium game that we kind of bigged up all about this tournament, it could happen in the round of 16. And given what we've seen from the U.S., they would be in that game. So so that's that on Belgium. They're into the round of 32. Let's get to the biggest game of the day, the most drama that we saw. Egypt won. Iran won is how it finishes.
00:46:40
Speaker
But there was a long, long way before we got there. Omar Mouge starts on the bench for Egypt. It's the first appearance for Gourbani in the Iran team. Mohebi starts alongside Ish Taremi, but ends up dropping back. It's kind of 4-5-1 from Egypt, or from Iran, I should say, with Taremi isolated up top.
00:46:56
Speaker
And Alirasa Beyrin van Amit, who was so, so good against Belgium, is at fault for the goal here. And it's a comedy of errors. It's a couple of errors that he makes. So he first can't quite get to a deflected shot cross from Mo Salah. This is in the ninth minute of this game. Can't get to the first shot cross. It's a great chest down from Zico to set up Salah. And that hit that he he kind of flaps at it and he pushes it right to Mahmoud Sabah. And then Sabah gets on the ball and puts a shot and it somehow goes through both the arms and the legs of Baron Vaughn. This is just a goalkeeping mistake in the fifth minute of this game. And it's ah it's a disastrous start for a run.
00:47:32
Speaker
Agreed. It just can't be that way. And he had been so good for them before too, and multiple mistakes on the same play. um Credit to Zico and Salah for like, just being really good for Egypt here, but it's frustrating.
00:47:45
Speaker
But Aran, who I thought started the first couple of this game minutes of this game well, come right back and they get it. Because Abdelmanem, the Egyptian defender, catches Mehdi Toremi on a clearing attempt. And after going to VAR, they're given a penalty. And Mehdi Toremi steps up for this penalty.
00:48:00
Speaker
But it's saved by Schobier. And we've seen this penalty has kind of become the penalty to take at this tournament. imit And it's just giving goalkeepers chances to make saves. It's it's low But it's not super hard. It's not in the corner. And if the goalkeeper goes the right way, more often than not, he's making the save. And that's what Schobier does here.
00:48:18
Speaker
Yeah, it's not a great penalty. I don't know why it's the penalty of the tournament. If it's hard to hit it in the air, maybe guys need to, you know, be a little bit more clinical instead of grass cutting. I don't know. It's it has been saveable.
00:48:29
Speaker
But Iran keep with it and they are able to find a goal themselves in just the 14th minute of this game. It's a save from Shobir to stop Mohammadi and it's Ramin Rezaeen, the right back for Iran, who has been really, really good at this tournament. And then I looked at...
00:48:46
Speaker
Ramin Rezain and I said, man, this guy's been really good. He's a 36 year old right back at Fulad Kujistan who's heading back to Iran to play at Estigal. Where's this guy coming from? He's been so, so good for them. And he has a super tight angle finish here that beats Shobir near post.
00:49:01
Speaker
Shobir after making the initial save, just couldn't recover back to his post to deny the opportunity. I agree. he's He's been really, really ah a spark for them on the right side, getting up and down quality on the ball.
00:49:13
Speaker
Don't know where it comes from. This is a really nice piece of technique, too, to find this angle, which shouldn't really be an angle. Yeah, but I don't think this is show. It's not necessarily ah like you don't want your goalkeeper getting beaten. Yeah, it doesn't get back. to covered It's not that he's poorly positioned. He just doesn't have the time to get back and make the play and cover that post. So that puts this game at 1-1. And then this game kind of just starts to slowly shift De'Ron's way. And it kind of felt like they had Egypt in an uncomfortable situation. lot of changes for both teams at halftime. Marmouche and Atia come on for Egypt. Salah goes off in the 57th minute for Zizo. In Egypt, it kind of feels like they're just starting to do the screws like they did against New Zealand, like we saw in that game.
00:49:54
Speaker
And it's a poorly timed hydration break that kind of cuts their momentum from this game. And then this game just tips towards stoppage time. And that, admit, is where everything just goes off the rails. Because news comes in that Belgium have a fourth goal and that Belgium are going to win this group as it stands. So you see Omar Marmoush is trying to, like, wave his guys forward. Like, we got to press. We should go. We should try and win this group.
00:50:22
Speaker
But Aran, who are on an uncomfortable 3.0 goal differential situation, knowing that a win here would automatically send them through to the round of 32, they are pressuring, and Mehdi Taremi rocks the bar off a quarter. It's a really good opportunity. Just puts it off the crossbar. Like, oh, they're not going to get a better opportunity than that. No, dear listener, they actually got three better opportunities than that down the stretch.
00:50:47
Speaker
It's absolute craziness from Iran. and the way this slowly tilted in their favor, as you said, over the course of the second half was wild. But then here was like that information the the way the timeline part of it were just the last 10 minutes. They totally took over this game. Could you imagine Iran...
00:51:06
Speaker
kicking Egypt's butt for 10 minutes like this. Obviously, they you know how this game ends, but this is, I think, one of the best onslaughts I've seen of the entire tournament. So after Tremi rocks the bar, Lachine gives a cheap foul on Tremi in the midfield and Iran, then they just play mixer ball and it's absolute pinball in the box. And I can tell you all the touches that happened on this chance, but we might be here for another 10 minutes. But in the end, Jobier makes a save.
00:51:30
Speaker
It pings out to Kalazeta and he slams into the top of the net. And there's just wild celebrations. Kalazeta rips off the shirt. The entire Iran team, every single Iran person on the bench is on the field to celebrate. Somehow Kalazeta gets like the meme sunglasses and puts them on for a picture.
00:51:48
Speaker
it is wild. One of the best moments of the World Cup. But unfortunately, it's waved off. VAR comes on and on review. It's not Shobier, the important player who matters here because he's the goalkeeper and he's come off his line. and So the penultimate defender and the player for a run, Khala Zeta, his foot is like halfway beyond the line. It is offside. But in the spirit of the law, this is not what we're trying to get out of the game.
00:52:15
Speaker
We got to fix this last defender thing with the goalkeeper. Like it feels like he's on sides here. It's a field player blocking him in between him and the goal. Right. It's I understand the letter of the law, but and also the fact that it's half a foot to what a letdown after like the crazy, crazy celebrations.
00:52:35
Speaker
And so you think, ah, again, man, they're not going to get a better chance than that. But no, they still get a better chance. And there's a ridiculous block from Egypt to deny Ramin. And then Ezzetlahi hits the bar with a chance right at the death. And it ends up finishing 1-1. And Iran are, I think...
00:52:52
Speaker
rightfully just distraught because they had this game. They felt like they won this game. They could have still won this game. It's not enough, but it could be enough. And and I think the quote from Amir Galanoi post-match is just really everything here, right? And so the main quote is this. I used to think that we were in a press team.
00:53:08
Speaker
Obviously, Iran have had to travel. They've had travel restrictions that have not applied to anybody else in this tournament. It has been really difficult for them. They have not had recovery time after games. They've been forced to fly back to their base camp. So Galanoi says, I used to think that we are an oppressed team.
00:53:21
Speaker
We are also an unlucky team. And your heart just shatters at that because it's like, oh, man, he's not wrong. He's not wrong. This is just unlucky. It just is. They won this game like four separate times and they somehow have to walk out with the draw. I mean, like on performance, this is everything you hoped for from Iran, right? They survived the last day. They kick Egypt's bun 10 minutes. They create all these chances and they're left not feeling 100% secure.
00:53:49
Speaker
And because of how this tournament is, and it's fitting, I think, that Iran go into the last day as the bubble team because this is a tournament where Iran have had very little control of anything, right? We've talked about the restrictions that have been placed on them. This is the situation where these two countries are literally at war at the start of the tournament. Tensions are flaring up as this tournament goes on. The day that Iran play their third group stage match, right, the U.S. is launching retaliatory attacks on Iran despite a ceasefire.
00:54:18
Speaker
All of this tournament, Iran have really had no control over their fate. that The 26 players in this squad have been the 26 players in this squad, and they've just kind of been along for the ride. And now whether they make a historic first World Cup knockout round appearance or not does not come down to them. They're going to sweat through three sets of games here, hoping a bit for one measly result to go their way to end up in the round of 32 and really defy expectations by getting It's poetic. yeah I like the way you've described it. It really is. It's not in their hands.
00:54:50
Speaker
And look, there's been the Scotland bubble watch. There's been the South Korea bubble watch. But I think the Iran bubble watch is the watch of them all. I think everyone's going to kind of be with them. And this is... um Look, FIFA got their final day, right? Like this is this is going to be edge of your seat, living and dying on every kick for them. And I think a lot of people who really want to see them get through. And after the performance they put up, like, how do you not feel for them?
00:55:19
Speaker
One final note before we talk about the bubble. The XG was two to point eight around. Put up two XG in this game and can't get that that three points, that second goal. Oh, my gosh. And I think some of it, the XG is obviously reduced by the penalty-ness from Terebi. But also, like, I don't think, like, Iran don't get there their goal that they get if Terebi scores the penalty. Like, I think this game is in different shape from there. So I don't think it's like, oh, they could have had both those goals. Like, I don't think Iran get the second goal, that the goal that they got had they scored the penalty. I think it shifts the game. Anyway, all right. It's third place bubble watch. It's the last day of the World Cup group stage.
00:55:52
Speaker
And there is drama to be had. It's going to be tight. It's going to be tense. So let's lay out the situation in it. And then let's talk about the games that we're going to see today here on this Saturday. So the third place table stands as this. We've got teams that are already in, right? We talked about setting all their three points.
00:56:06
Speaker
Plus two is enough. They're mathematically in. And we've talked about all the teams on four points that have gotten. There's three groups left to go. There are three teams that are technically on the bubble. We've got Iran on three points with a zero goal differential. South Korea on three points with a minus one goal differential. And Scotland on three points with a minus three goal differential. It is insanely hard for Scotland to get in. I think they are cooked. They are done. We don't need to worry about them. Iran need one of the three groups to go their way.
00:56:32
Speaker
South Korea need two of the three groups to go their way. What does their way look like? So in the first group that goes, the bubble teams need Ghana to beat Croatia. South Korea would like for that to happen. Ghana would like for that to happen. Scotland would need for it to be by three goals. Again, we don't really have to worry about this So that's result one that these teams need or are looking for. again, Iran only need one of these results to go their way. South Korea need two. The second group that goes, DR Congo play Uzbekistan. Iran and South Korea need DR Congo to not beat Uzbekistan. And technically they need Uzbekistan to not win by seven goals. So that's result two.
00:57:05
Speaker
And the result three in the nightcap, they need Austria or Algeria to win. South Korea need Austria to win or Algeria to win by two plus goals. Scotland need Austria by two or Algeria by four. Again, we can pretty much discard Scotland. Three results. Iran need one. South Korea need two. How should these teams be feeling? imit Korea's in trouble. They're in a lot, a lot of trouble.
00:57:27
Speaker
but Let's rank these by likelihood here, right? Okay. The models are saying Austria, Algeria, someone will win. Don't feel good about that.
00:57:38
Speaker
do not feel good about that. Feels like feels like a draw. Feels like the models are underrating the possibility that a draw is very beneficial to both sides and playing to win is not worth the squeeze. Right. Like it feels like the context of that game could be very different than just a standard game played in a back.
00:57:56
Speaker
Now let's talk about DR Congo, Uzbekistan. I think DR Congo is favored here. Yeah, they could they could be a draw. That could be your best case here. it could be a really grimy game. DR Congo is trying to get out themselves, right? Yeah. And a win helps them. So I think DR Congo better team. Okay.
00:58:11
Speaker
I think the best case you have is Ghana, Croatia. Ghana beats Croatia. And Ghana is a worse team than Croatia. So in my mind, I'm counting three things that aren't likely to happen.
00:58:23
Speaker
I don't think any of these teams feel good. I'm sorry. This is where I'm at. And now you're in this really, really tense. You need one, but if you're wrong, we're... Where are you going? i think the the math says Austria-Algira is the most likely, but I just really do not feel that would be the case. I think your best case is Carlos Caros doing Iran of a solid favor four years beyond the pale and go zombie getting Iran through by finally helping Ghana through by beating Croatia. like I think Dear Congo is favored. I think Austria-Algira favored to draw. like Ghana can beat Croatia. That's where I'm at.
00:59:00
Speaker
I hadn't considered the ah the Carlos Kairos element of this. all I mean, I had considered it in that he's the Ghana manager, but I hadn't really thought about the the Iran connection. Obviously, a huge history there between Kairos and Iran. He was their manager for so long and and got them to World Cups and had good performances, but never got them out of the group stage.
00:59:17
Speaker
Maybe Carlos Kairos says, this guy all right, we got to do a solid for these boys because they didn't be a solid. That's super interesting. DR Congo have played this game a lot, right? They need to win. They're not going, they shouldn't, I don't expect them to do it going, you know, they're not to blow out Uzbekistan. That's not the game they played. This feels very similar to Jamaica game that they played in the world cup playoff, right? Where it took them all the way into extra time before they so actually scored in that game. They had a couple of goals chopped off for offside. It's going to be sweaty, but again, you're you're backing DR Congo to win and DR Congo understand the stakes. They know that they have to win or else they're not getting out.
00:59:48
Speaker
And then you said it amid the nightcap. If both of those results don't go the way and it's Iran sitting, watching as the night wears on, hoping for Algeria and Austria to do something for somebody to do anything.
01:00:02
Speaker
Why would those teams do anything? I'm with you. I just feel really doomed. I feel really doomed that's where we're going. The only hope is that like Algeria and Austria are not the kinds of teams that play draw football. Algeria want the ball and want a lot of high things. And the whole thesis of Austria's game is high events.
01:00:24
Speaker
But listen, I think we saw it against Argentina. like Austria could turn the dial back. like They could it could like make it not so fun. And Man, sorry. i just Just thinking about Algeria-Austria is giving me fits. like This is going to be, I think, one of the funniest harrowing, both at the same time, like experiences in football.
01:00:49
Speaker
And it's so interesting because... right? With this Austria Algeria game, you're thinking about it and you're thinking, why would these teams play? Why would these teams play? Why would these teams play?
01:01:02
Speaker
But then also if you don't play, what happens if you give up a goal and then all of a sudden you're out. And so it's just this, you're trying to walk this line and you said it there. ah yeah The best comparison of this game is Paraguay-Australia, which we saw already in this group stage.
01:01:13
Speaker
Those teams are so much more equipped to just choke off space and watch the ball bounce away for a draw. I don't know that Austria and Algeria can do that. And what's so fascinating about all of this is hanging over it all, you've got the disgrace of Hijon, which involved... Austria and Algeria and West Germany all the way back in 1982 when algeria basically with Austria i should say played out a 1-0 loss to West germany and Germany in order to go through and keep Algeria out. Now these two teams are crossing it again. Is there an Algerian revenge element here where we're not going to disgrace this match? We're going to try and beat it? in a limit I don't know. It's so, so fascinating. I don't know what to expect when I turn on my TV tonight to watch this game.
01:01:54
Speaker
I think however it ends, it's going to be truly, truly incredible. Like this is just just delightful. And poor Iran sitting in the middle of this, just hoping for one of these games to go their way to make the round of 32. You feel pretty poorly about South Korea, right? Needing two of these to go their way.
01:02:10
Speaker
I do, but look, maybe Ghana gets the result in the first game. And I think you've got some hope, right? If if that first game doesn't go well, then you're going to needing two for two. You're going feel really, really bad.
Upcoming Matches and Group Dynamics
01:02:20
Speaker
And so let's see. Let's see. There's a lot. Everyone's turning their eyes. A world turns its eyes towards Carlos Carlos. Can you beat it?
01:02:29
Speaker
Other games that we're expecting today, we've got England, Panama. And what makes the Ghana thing interesting is there's incentive for them to play. And I put play in air quotes there, at least to start this game because they can still win this group, right? If they better England result, they win the group or if they beat Croatia by more than England beats Panama.
01:02:46
Speaker
It's not the likely scenario here, but I think Ghana have to at least start this game playing and Ghana know that they're already through to the round of 32. And there's not a huge difference for them between finishing runner up or finishing in third place because you're still playing Portugal or Colombia. Regardless, there is incentive for them to play. England, meanwhile, i it's time to get H.Kane going here against Panama, right? The the curse is over. The Gadanian Witch Doctor has lifted the curse.
01:03:07
Speaker
Time to go. I mean, there's not a lot left for England in this game other than just getting the vibes right. Right. And so to your point, that's getting your star man back on the score sheet to see if he's not voodooed. So let's see.
01:03:19
Speaker
England do need to win to ensure that they win the group. And if they need to win by more than Ghana wins. So there's incentive for them to score and score a lot. Hasn't been a great World Cup for Panama. There's a dust up at training the other day. The Thomas Christian cycle certainly feels like it's done. Let's see if they can get a historic World Cup result. That's going to be what they're going for. Second group, talked about DR Congo-Zubakistan a lot. We talked about that. That's a game that we've seen from DR Congo. We've got Colombia-Portugal sitting here, Amit, which is a really, really good game because who wins this group comes down to this game. Colombia have the draw advantage. We have kind of gotten lost, I think, in the third place conversation, and we shouldn't because this is a really damn good game.
01:03:55
Speaker
And it's the Ronaldo show back at a high level against Colombia's really, really good defensive setup. This is a great game. I think we we kind of talked about it a few podcasts ago, like previewing the shape of this game. Colombia against the ball, Diaz on the counter. Does he have help? Does he have runners?
01:04:11
Speaker
how much How willing is Portugal to get its you know outside backs forward and leave space for Diaz? Is there room for Cucho Hernandez in this game, whether it's a sub or not? you know is and it's, it's really, really fascinating. Cause I think Portugal is a better team, but I think Columbia is the kind of team that can be a thorn in their side. And look, 20 minutes in, if this looks like Portugal and Ronaldo are kind of not on the same wavelength, there's a lot of sweat that we're going to find out here. And this is kind of a low, so lower stakes preview of what Portugal are going to do in the knockout round, the type of team they're going to play, the type of game they're going to play. and
01:04:51
Speaker
I mean, is there, is there going to be any more evidence that we need to see what the right kind of strikers situation is? The James Rodriguez situation for Columbia is going be fascinating. What does Nesta Lorenzo choose to do with that decision? The atmosphere in Miami, this was like the most wanted ticket for the group stage. And now with the stakes being what they are, that just goes through the roof. going be so, so yellow at hard rock stadium. It's going to be a sweaty affair bit, not just because of what's happening on the pitch, but because it's Miami on a summer Saturday night, like Just sweat. I'm starting to sweat it thinking about it. and It's the middle of winter here in Buenos Aires. And there is motivation for these teams, right? Because, okay, if it's true that Croatia, Ghana will settle who plays who in the round of 32, and there's maybe not a huge difference there, what happens in the round of 16 is very important, I think, for these teams. And the group winner would play the winner of a Switzerland third place game in the round of 16, whereas the group runner up is playing the winner of a Spain-Australia-Algeria game in the round of 16.
01:05:46
Speaker
I know which of those two paths I would prefer. You got to try to get yourself into that Switzerland line. So it really, really matters here. um This is where the draw advantage that Colombia have earned because of what Portugal have done could turn into Portugal getting put into a worse bracket and eventually butterflying affecting them out of the the tournament. Right. So it matters. It really matters.
01:06:12
Speaker
And Colombia are is such a good matchup for this because a draw advantage is so significant to them and and they can be so strong in the midfield. This is a great midfield clash, right? Portugal have one of the best midfields of the tournament. Colombia are super strong in the midfield. It's just a really, really good game but I'm very, very much looking forward to watching. And in the night game, we talked a lot about Algeria-Oshia. We'll talk one more time about it.
Argentina's Low-Risk Match Against Jordan
01:06:31
Speaker
Argentina played Jordan. Argentina have won the group. Jordan are already eliminated. Lionel Messi will not start this game, but Lionel Scaloni says that Messi will play. think you kind of are hoping to like get two goals from him in 20 minutes. This is big for the golden boot race, if nothing else.
01:06:45
Speaker
Sure. I think it's big for the spectacle, big for the people that paid money to come watch Lionel Messi play. I think he wants to delight the fans. Argentina's vibes are really, really good right now. And so as long as that doesn't Doriel, I think that's that's what the goal is.
01:06:58
Speaker
And they have a long time, right? We've talked about some of the short turnarounds. Argentina don't play until Friday in and the round of 32. And then from there, things get pretty cut up and they're playing every three days. So I think there is a sense of wanting to keep game rhythm in these players. You're not going to risk Messi for 90 minutes. Playing Messi for 15, 20 minutes should be okay. I also think Jordan are, for everything, a pretty respectful opponent. like I don't think Jordan are going to come into this game looking to clatter into challenges. They're going to play hard. They're looking for a historic World Cup result. They've had some moments at this World Cup. We've liked what we've seen from El Eau. Obviously, Altaremi is a player that we really like.
01:07:30
Speaker
Jordan are going to try here, but I don't think Argentina need to be too fearful ah about things going wrong. Then, all right one more time. We've talked about it a ton.
Algeria vs. Austria Knockout Battle
01:07:37
Speaker
Algeria, Austria, the nightcap, the final World Cup knockout spot on the line.
01:07:42
Speaker
Loser may be going home again. Results earlier in the day could predicate this. Like if Croatia take a big loss, if DR Congo don't win, then this game becomes much less high stakes. But it just feels like it's all going to come down to if there's a winner Iran go through, If there's not, both of these teams go through. Is anybody going to risk losing this game?
01:08:03
Speaker
don't know. We're going to see. If this was not the last game, objectively, I'd be like, well, I think Algeria has a real chance here. The way Mazda has played, using Mars' verticality, you know, Tybee, like, you know,
01:08:19
Speaker
Austria leaves space when they press. And yes, I think Algeria's midfield and backline are a bit thin on the ball, like can be pushed off of it. But when they have it, there's quality the other way. My issue in this game is if Austria dial back the press, it gets really, really gridlocked really fast. Algeria have the quality to hurt Austria in space.
01:08:39
Speaker
The thing for Austria is I think very, very clearly we've seen attacking wise, they do not have the juice to to get what they want to do. So like... This, to me, again, it just points towards stalemate. There is a scenario where this game could be really, really, really fun and open because Austria won Chaos and Algeria have the quality. Mazza could totally steal this game on his star town. This is the type of team, this is the type of games he plays in the Bundesliga all the time for Bayer Leverkusen.
01:09:10
Speaker
There's a lot of hope here that Algeria could dump Austria out. That would be the one thing I'm i'm thinking about as a surprise. I think Austria has been a bit stale. That being said, if Austria just leaves six or seven guys back, maybe it's not as fun.
01:09:22
Speaker
A goal would change everything, right? The yeah second a goal comes in, the equation changes until it gets changed back into a draw situation. And that is like, we'll see. Again, these teams will have all the information going into this game. They will know that most like the most likely outcome is draw both through, loser goes home.
01:09:39
Speaker
Again, are you willing to go for the win because you're chancing, getting got it? I don't know. It's such a difficult situation to think about. And this is why you and I are podcasters with headphones and microphones and not players having to try and process all of this and still
Engagement and Future Content (Q&A)
01:09:52
Speaker
somehow play.
01:09:52
Speaker
Another great edition of the World Cup After Dark podcast that you know where to find is Apple Podcasts, Spotify, wherever you get your stuff. Rate, review, comment, upvote, all of the good stuff. Patreon.com slash WCAD if you are looking to support us. There will be a patron-only episode coming out later today with a little South Africa podcast. Canada preview with a special guest. You know who it is. We're talking South Africa. We got to go get Isaac Grishnell. So if you're looking for that, be sure to check out the Patreon feed at the end of today. Amit and I will be back tomorrow morning to recap what we saw today. And we'll be back tomorrow night to preview the round of 32 in full. And also with a quick recap of that South Africa Canada game. Enjoy the games.
01:10:27
Speaker
Enjoy the drama. Bathe in the sweat. and We'll see you guys tomorrow.