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WCAD 4-41: Quarterfinal Preview
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Austin and Amit ask all the big questions ahead of the World Cup Quarterfinals: How do you beat France? Can Belgium get the ball of Spain? Who you got between Haaland and Kane? And finally, Have we seen this game before for Argentina?
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Transcript
Introduction and Quarterfinal Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
Eight teams left at the 2026 World Cup. We are previewing all four quarterfinals on today's edition of the World Cup After Dark. My name is
Dark Horse Disappointments and Top Teams Analysis
00:00:10
Speaker
Austin Miller. I'm joined as always by Amit Malik.
00:00:13
Speaker
Amit, eight teams left at the World Cup. Both of our Dark Horse picks did not make it. Of these eight teams here, are you overly surprised by any of them?
00:00:25
Speaker
I don't think so. I think it's the four best teams in the tournament, the four top seeds that you expected, Spain, France, Argentina, England, in some order. And then
Switzerland and Norway: Dark Horse Contenders
00:00:36
Speaker
out of the four behind them, I think we maybe had two teams in our dark horse category.
00:00:43
Speaker
Switzerland and Norway. um Neither of us picked them for different reasons. I think Norway is a very, very popular dark horse pick for a lot of people. I think it makes sense why they're here um because they have the the best striker in the world.
00:00:56
Speaker
Switzerland to me are not surprising because that quarter of the whole thing was was pretty open and Switzerland Columbia. I think either those teams would have
Other Strong Teams: Morocco and Belgium
00:01:03
Speaker
been there. And then I think in Morocco and Belgium, you just have the next two of the next whatever, five to six, seven teams behind the top four.
00:01:13
Speaker
So it makes sense. It does make sense. And, you know, I feel pretty good about our dark horse picks. The whole points were we were throwing darts um and even some of the other teams here that we didn't get. Like, think there's some really good teams that went out in the round of 32, too, that we didn't even, you know, yeah miss. You think about a Senegal, you think about an Ivory Coast, you think about a Netherlands, right? And not even a dark horse team.
00:01:34
Speaker
And so, yeah, I think the United States and Columbia are probably going to feel the most regret about not being in this round, given their round of 16 matchups.
European Dominance: UEFA's Strong Presence
00:01:44
Speaker
But, you know, it's pretty fair.
00:01:46
Speaker
The other thing I'll say is that we had done a whole thing about what it was going to look like in this eight, how chalky it was going to be with this round of 32, an extra round and how chalky it was going to be.
00:02:00
Speaker
i think it's pretty chalky. on the whole and especially all the top four being here and it didn't necessarily have to be that way there were a lot of moments that it might not look like it was going to be that way but it is and we can talk about that a little bit too yeah so six teams from uefa one team from connell one team from calf it is the best team from connell right the defending co-america champions two times it is probably the best team from calf In Morocco, obviously World Cup semi-finalists last time around, they won or didn't win after a couple of
Absent Giants: Germany, Netherlands, and Brazil
00:02:31
Speaker
nations. And then the teams from UEFA, there are some surprises not here, right? Like Germany's not here. You mentioned it. Netherlands aren't here. Brazil aren't here. i think all of those absences are fairly explainable, particularly in the case of Germany, where even had they not been upset by Paraguay, they're not going to be favored against France in a round of 16 matchup. So...
00:02:53
Speaker
Do we have the best eight teams in the world in the World of Cup quarterfinals? No, I don't think so. But we have the four best teams and that was kind of the tier of teams that we had picked out ahead of the tournament. So I can't think, I don't think we should be too surprised. And we've kind of done this cycle again where the tournament starts and you see all this opportunity and you see some European teams stumble, but it kind of comes back to there's just more good European teams than anything else. So even if...
00:03:21
Speaker
The Netherlands go out, even if Germany goes out, even if Portugal goes out, Spain, England, France, Norway, they're all waiting behind to kind of fill in the gaps and you're always probably going to get this Eurocentric last eight.
CAF and South American Team Developments
00:03:36
Speaker
Yeah, I think you are. I think we're so close to to CAF busting the doors down. I do think they're they're better positioned than CONMEBOL, than Asia, than CONCACAF because the talent development in West Africa and North Africa is good. like You've got two regions where you're building more complete teams, like Ivory Coast, like Senegal, like in Egypt.
00:04:04
Speaker
But they were To me, they were the the the most hounded teams not here like that that didn't get it. I think with the United States, the player development, ah North America, United States, Canada, Mexico, all of them, the player development still a bit farther off than what you're seeing with those calf teams. And then South America, I mean, we could do a whole podcast hunt. And we will. And we will. And so the incentives there are just not...
00:04:27
Speaker
quite lining up to be as close as the European teams. So to answer your question, yes, it makes sense. And I agree with your point. Like if someone was going to fill in, it was going to be like Norway, like Switzerland. Some of that's the way the draw worked, right? The draw did kind of spit out those teams a little bit.
FIFA's Seeding Strategy and Knockout Bracket
00:04:45
Speaker
So those eight... teams split into four paths before this tournament even started, right? FIFA made a big deal about how the top four seeds, if they won their groups would all be in four different quadrants of the knockout round bracket. Those top four teams, France, Spain, England, Argentina, all won their groups. They are all in different quadrants of the bracket and they're all here in the
Quarterfinal Matchup Previews and Upset Potential
00:05:06
Speaker
quarterfinals. And I think, omit, that they are all favored in these quarterfinal matchups. They're probably favored by different amounts. So I think the place I want to start this preview podcast is on Saturday night when we set our semifinal field, should we expect it to be those top four teams? Do we feel good about it being those top four teams? Is there anyone in particular you think of those top four teams is most ripe for an upset? How should we big picture approach these quarterfinals?
00:05:37
Speaker
All four teams are significantly favored, but not so much that it's over 50-50 that they all get through. I mean, that's just the the the reality of the math, right? if Even if you chuck out like four 66% to 70% odds here...
00:05:50
Speaker
six to seventy percent odds here something will go wrong, right? Generally, that's the big picture probability. Now, even understanding the math, I just kind of feel that all four of these better teams are going to get through. i think the weakest ones are England because Norway is good and dangerous and because England are, you know, England.
00:06:16
Speaker
And then maybe Argentina and Switzerland. But... I think there's a very clear flaw for all of these um underdogs. And actually the best underdog here on talent is Morocco. But the issue is they have the best team overall. So it's tricky. There's a case in all four and that's what we're going to do this whole podcast. It's actually really exciting. I think there's a great case for all four.
00:06:42
Speaker
It's just that, Oh, maybe three of the four, but no, mostly all four. That's Belgium. Sorry. Um, I don't know. Like, this is where going to look stupid between now and Saturday night. Right. The answer is like, probably, yes, there will be an upset. But if you had to pick one, I don't know if you're going feel great about anyone.
00:07:01
Speaker
And I think it's also interesting that of these four teams, the one that has definitely been weakest throughout this tournament, particularly in the knockout stage, has been Argentina, but they maybe have the most favorable matchup in that of the eight teams here, Switzerland, particularly this Switzerland, and we're not 100% sure about the status ah of Monsambi, but we feel pretty confident that he's not going to play, are probably the weakest of these eight teams, with Belgium maybe just ahead of them if if we're, you know,
00:07:28
Speaker
big time power rankings, breaking out the graphic. These are my power rankings. If you want your power rankings, get your own power rankings type deal, right? If we're doing that bit, I think Switzerland and Belgium are probably seven and eight, but Switzerland are playing Argentina who are, you know, maybe they're four or five or whatever. And that,
00:07:44
Speaker
maybe limits your ability. Whereas if it's like Argentina, Norway, Argentina, Morocco, you maybe feel like that's more of a 50-50 game. But I think you're right. I think it would be semi-surprising for all four of these teams to get through because this just hasn't been a World Cup that even if we've gotten to the quarterfinal, it's that bit chalky. You still have to expect that there's enough talent that these are all going to be games. And when a knockout round game is a game, anything can happen.
00:08:10
Speaker
That's the good way to put it. Also, like there's been a lot of football played for the round of 32 and the round of 16. But generally, when you get to this last eight, you're trying to get if you're the underdog, you're trying to get the math as
Underdog Strategies Against Stronger Opponents
00:08:24
Speaker
close to a coin flip as possible and take your chances and think about a shootout. And you have the level to do that defensive game at a way that the teams before you couldn't. So like all of these underdogs have the ability, I think,
00:08:39
Speaker
When they need to, to just try to play for pens or try to fully bunker and be better than anyone else before them at bunkering. And so I just think generally, as we get deeper in these tournaments, we see lower and lower event football.
00:08:53
Speaker
Will that necessarily be the case in all four of these games? think you're looking at it. i mean, well'll we'll get into it, right? I think like England, Norway has the potential to avoid some of that if we get a goal.
00:09:06
Speaker
The other three, like I feel like I know what those games look like. So w yeah Another way to think about this, do you think we're getting a shootout or not in these four games, despite the odds?
00:09:17
Speaker
I feel like we're going to see a penalty shootout, right? Like there has to be a penalty shootout, right? Right. Just given what knockout round football is and what it looks like there, you would expect there to be a shootout. And if there's a shootout, then it's kind of all bets are off. So I think it's really
France vs Morocco: Tactical Expectations
00:09:31
Speaker
interesting. So let's get into it a minute. And I think we should start with France-Morocco, which I think is a really, really good quarterfinal matchup. Morocco looking to make the semifinals again. This is a matchup that we saw at the last World Cup.
00:09:45
Speaker
And I think the place to start is the fact that we have kind of been asking with France this entire tournament, is anybody going to ask them the questions enough to make this France team kind of change their gear. And that's not to suggest that France haven't played hard or that they haven't been committed or that they've kind of been walking through, because I don't think that's been the case.
00:10:08
Speaker
But France have basically said, we have four superb attacking players. We are going to let those four guys basically interchange and do whatever they want. We're going to sit six guys behind them. And that is going to be sufficient. And so far it has been sufficient. So can Morocco ask the questions of France to make that approach change?
00:10:27
Speaker
And then if we get that, do we have a matchup on our hands? It's a great place to start and really would have been interesting to see France, Germany before this, but we didn't. So that's why I think what you said is important. And before we start to like Morocco had a, did not play their best against Canada. No, it was a very professional performance. They played the game they needed to get through. And I think they were recovering from having to spend a lot of energy to beat the Netherlands. So they were really, really tested in two games ago. Now, i I don't think you should really call on the legs as much of an issue. Yeah, there's maybe 30 minutes on there, but that was maybe a week ago.
00:11:04
Speaker
But to get into it, let's see. does morocco Is Morocco good enough to... ask the questions of France. The answer is yes. There is enough quality on the ball here in this Morocco 11 where you start saying, can you keep the ball away from France when you have it? Is there enough technical ability on the field that the France midfield has to chase you and that you could punish France for their front four being all attacking players and make them have to work defensively, which they've done this tournament, by the way. It's not that they won't work defensively, but can you make Deschamps feel uneasy about his four and six?
00:11:40
Speaker
Maybe he goes to seven and three, and are you forcing him to be more defensive? Or if he's going to go four and six, can you straight up hurt them at a random moment where you somehow have seven or eight on six in the right moment and you you break France with the ball?
00:11:56
Speaker
And to beat France, I think you need three things, right? You need to be able to hurt them with the ball, make them chase the ball. We say, yes, Morocco can do that.
00:12:07
Speaker
Then thing number two, you need to defend credibly against the four pronged Death Star. Now, credibly is is the the big word here. I think you you hope Morocco can, right? You've got the best right back in the world in Atraf Hakimi. Masrari has put on really, really good tape at left back.
00:12:26
Speaker
Diop has been really good, really physical at center back. Riyad is the other guy, you know, he's maybe the weak link, but ah you know, you're hoping to protect him. And Riyad also didn't play in the game against Canada. We saw Halal come into center back. So that's maybe ah a question. I think you'd feel a lot better about Riyad in that game than you would about Halal.
00:12:44
Speaker
And so you like the back four, then in We'll come back to this in a second. then The last question of to do three things to beat France, right? You got to chase the ball. You got to defend the ball. But can you score efficiently enough to hurt France when you even get them off their game?
00:13:02
Speaker
The hardest we've seen France work was 60 minutes against Senegal, where Senegal have good athletes. decide to press them. France, you know, look very uncomfortable in that game. Understanding they're not out. France are not out of the game, but they're just like they don't want to commit. It's kind of up and down. There are a few half chances for Senegal. Senegal don't score their half chances. The way to beat this France team, get the game
Spain vs Belgium: Tactical Dominance and Challenges
00:13:24
Speaker
into something like that state and then score.
00:13:27
Speaker
And a lot of this comes to Saibari, right? He didn't train today. Today's Wednesday. I have a hard time thinking Ismael Sabari is playing on Thursday. If he didn't train Wednesday, maybe there's something in there. Maybe he's a you can get 30 minutes of him.
00:13:43
Speaker
I have a hard time feeling like his athleticism is going to be where it needs to be to play France, right? like Yeah, and that then I think leads to this question that we've kind of come back to a lot with Morocco, which is The goals, the finishing, page one of the World Cup After Dark knockout round textbook, take your chances, right? And I think Morocco, they scored three goals against Canada, but they scored one off a set piece and then they scored two from a positive game state counterattacking type style of play, which maybe you get that game state here against France, but I think you feel a lot better about your counter against Canada than you will about your counter against France. So can Morocco plausibly answer all three of those questions that you posited, right? Can they check all three those boxes?
00:14:26
Speaker
I think they can. Do you feel eminently confident that they will? i think you don't. That's a good way to put it. And I feel good about them in ways. And to me, the biggest question for this Morocco team is, yeah, I know they can keep the ball, but to keep the ball, they need Bouadi, El Anoui, and then at the pivot, and then in front of them, Unai, El Canous, Diaz. And that's five guys who are technical. But if you play five guys that are technical, yes, you can keep the ball. Can you win the ball?
00:14:57
Speaker
And so that's the question that is the big question. Is the El Anoui-Bouadi pivot the right type of pivot to beat France? And do you need a guy like Amrabat to come and try to destroy?
00:15:11
Speaker
But if you play him, are you robbing your ability to keep the ball? Would you rather be defensive? Do you embrace the defended counter from the start? Or do you say, yeah, we're going to play the ball. Yeah, France are going to have but when we have the ball, we're going to hurt them, right? Think about how Egypt played Argentina. like They just said, we're going to keep the ball. We're going to make you chase. Argentina's midfield is a lot slower than than France's.
00:15:32
Speaker
And so there is this one question of Dechamp. If he plays Choumeni, Rabiot, Alise, there are two guys that are maybe not as...
00:15:44
Speaker
physical in Rabiot and Elisa. And that's at least enough. Like both of those guys are actually great athletes in their own way. But could you bully them off the ball? Morocco is not really a bully team, but maybe there's something in here where it's a little pinball-y and you can find a little joy.
00:15:59
Speaker
So to me, the questions in this game are basically on Ouabi, the Morocco manager. Does he just go full defend and counter because he he needs to stop France and believe that he can counter? This is kind of how Morocco did it in 2022.
00:16:13
Speaker
Or is he a little bit braver and he thinks you're not going to beat France by playing scared. We want to, you know, use the ball, hurt them, make them defend, kind of take their front four out of the game that way. Now, listen, you do that. You're living with the scariest four, three behind you on the counter. But that's why you have, you know, Diop, Hakimi, Masrai.
00:16:32
Speaker
I do think that's an unknown in this game. Like we've been surprised by managers deciding to be aggressive at points. And I do think generally, uwabi is a positive manager. He plays the defendant counter against Canada, but it kind of played into his hands. Like Canada absolutely played into his hands, I thought. um it's It's a really intriguing question. What do you think?
00:16:54
Speaker
i think I think you'll see Morocco look to play at points in this game. I don't think they will come out and straight up bunker and counter. I think you will see them trust that their midfield can match France's midfield at points. I don't think they're going to be naive about it. Right. i think I they're going to play a generally defensive style. I think Amarbat's a really interesting potential player here because maybe that allows you to have a more physical kind of chaser, destroyer midfielder in the mix while still letting your ballplayers be ballplayers.
00:17:25
Speaker
But I look at kind of how Morocco want to attack, and I think Hakimi and Brian Diaz on the Moroccan right – I think there's some opportunity there that might be France's weakest spot. And I think that's the point that they're going to have pinpointed. And that's what they're going to be circling.
00:17:42
Speaker
It has to be what they're circling. Whether it's Luka Dean, whether it's Teo Hernandez, can you get Diaz one-on-one in space? Can Hakimi pick a moment to overlap and at least force whoever this left winger is? It's been Douay and Barcola, mostly Barcola to start.
00:18:00
Speaker
And maybe even you scare them so much with this side that Deschamps yanks Barcola or Douay to put in ah ah another defensive midfielder. And then you kind of turn France out of that 4-2-3-1 into more of a 4-3-3 with two defenders in that midfield three. And then your front line is just...
00:18:21
Speaker
some version of Mbappe, Alise, Dembele, but there's no fourth player there. And then if you do that, yeah, those guys are still dangerous, but you'll say, we could defend them four on three better than having to defend four on four, whatever the the numbers are.
00:18:36
Speaker
So I do think Brahim, Diaz, and Hakimi are dangerous enough that Dechamp is thinking about it, right? So there is the Wabi question. There is a Dechamp-like...
00:18:47
Speaker
How reactive is he? How pre pre-reactive is he here? It's kind of been working, right? If you're Duchamp, you think you should keep doing what you're doing, but maybe he this is his time. like They've had their fun. It's quarterfinals. It's go time. It's time for France to, to quote unquote, lock this thing down.
00:19:05
Speaker
I don't think France need to do that because I think they've been really good. Like, play your four guys and say, even if they get one, we're probably getting three because we've gotten three against everybody that has done anything vaguely resembling football at this tournament, right? Like, okay, yeah, we only got one against Pargaret, but Morocco aren't going to be able to play that sort of style. You don't need to necessarily worry about that. And also the thing with Deschamps here, and and this I think is a really interesting point here, Mitt,
00:19:30
Speaker
If France get punched in the mouth, there's still a lot of pivots here for France. We haven't seen yet. We haven't seen really any of it. Like we've seen Turkey come in and play a bit. You mentioned we've we've kind of seen Barkle and Douay kind of rotate who's playing in that spot.
00:19:46
Speaker
But if France are chasing a goal for 15 minutes, there's still a lot of levers that the champ can pull if he needs it. We haven't seen it yet. But you think at some point in this tournament we might or France might just be the best team here and we might not.
00:19:59
Speaker
Right. That's the whole thing. They've been kind of winning with without him having to go fully unleashing everything he has. John-Philippe Mateta is also lurking as a second striker. They've got more midfield options, right? Like, Rabiot, I think, is good for them, um generally starting, but you could see him start more defensive like Choumeni, Kone, and then use Rabiot as the bench option. The other thing here that France, at some point, like, is N'Golo Kante showing up in this tournament, or is that just like a...
00:20:30
Speaker
a name thing that we're counting on. I have no idea what his level is. I have no idea if that's a secret weapon for Duchamp or just a red herring. And I think from the other perspective from Morocco, i think set pieces are big here because I think that's maybe a spot where look, France are a very good defensive team. They have the numbers to play defensively.
00:20:51
Speaker
They have also shown, I think at moments in this tournament that their defense has a tendency to turn off at points. right And maybe we're into the quarterfinals. It's lock it down time. And that won't be a case. But Morocco worked a really good set piece routine to score the opening goal against Canada. And that could be a space here where I think Morocco are trying to maybe look to exploit.
00:21:10
Speaker
And I also think set pieces for France offensively aren't necessarily their best way to score. So dead balls could favor Morocco here. they can I think Diop could have ah a good one-on-one matchup versus maybe Upamecano maybe you get a mismatch there the one thing you do have to watch defensively on set pieces is that short corner or that recycled second phase yeah where sometimes then that's the area where they can put Mbappe, Alisa, Debele in the same corner and then you have three guys defending them that aren't even your three defenders because of the way you're set up to defend the set piece And that's what they did against Sweden, right? I was kind of thinking set pieces from their traditional put the ball in the box, big on big type matchup. But i cut yeah, they have that wrinkle where oh look our three best players are now all in a triangle and you just don't have enough players to cover them all.
00:21:59
Speaker
I think that's that's a very interesting spot here. So you've got to watch that. And then even if it's not necessarily the traditional, you know, big, you know, big guy cross, I think that little set piece we saw on the Anahi goal to hurt Canada was something scouted by Morocco. That was a routine in a sense.
00:22:17
Speaker
Do you have a wrinkle somewhere? Is there some play that you've basically trying to get a shot from distance for Diaz, for Hakimi, and something that you've worked. And it might not be a high extra chance, but it's a chance that could get you something in this game.
00:22:32
Speaker
The other thing is, yeah, Sweden were never going to have enough defense against France, but they showed with three guys attacking, right and especially a guy like Alanga and Isak, you could do something to France. They didn't score, but they they did something.
00:22:45
Speaker
Yeah, Sweden were never going to have enough defense for France, and Paraguay were never going to have enough attack for You can kind of like meld those two things together. There might be something here and Morocco might be a team that can do that.
00:22:58
Speaker
They might be. The defending is going to be hard. And you almost want to say, like, take more of what Paraguay did, like double the wingers on every time, come back and defend, come back and bunker. But if you come back and bunker, you might leave nothing going forward. And so, like, we talk in circles around this game. If it's Rahimi and not Saibari, I just think Morocco are going to struggle to genuinely feel good.
00:23:22
Speaker
But could Rahimi find something on a moment from Upa Makano? Could he find a loose ball in the box that he just strikes? I don't think Rahimi is a nothing burger of a striker. like He's good enough to do something in this game.
00:23:33
Speaker
so Look, you need few guys to have the games of their careers. like It could be Rahimi. um And yeah, look. Big thing for 2022 Morocco was Yassine Bounou. Just was excellent in that game.
00:23:46
Speaker
Part of the whole credibility defending the Death Star is your goalie also needs to stand on his head. So like can you frustrate France? ah Can you get a bad finishing? Can you have a good goalkeeping?
00:23:57
Speaker
You just need to tilt some of these variance things that are hard in your way enough. And honestly, the other thing that might be is... like You might want pens. You might want to keep it at zero because the second it gets to either game state, France are almost better and keeping Dechamps like scared at 0-0.
00:24:18
Speaker
That's maybe the one weakness is Dechamps' conservatism. He hasn't hasn't bit them yet, but like what if the whole time he's just scared of your counter he doesn't want to commit at 0-0 his guys up and you just keep inching to penalty kicks instead of ever having to sell out?
00:24:34
Speaker
And if you're going to score, can you like thread the needle and score in like the 88th minute here? And there's like, oh, there's no time to react. There's no levers to pull. Game over. Like that's the ideal scenario, but it never really worked out like that. Also critical critical for Morocco, they have to be in the game in the first half.
00:24:48
Speaker
You can't be two goals down against France half hour in. That's pretty much game over. Curtains down. You're done. So they have to be like we kind of alluded to earlier. They, they can't be naive about how they look to attack this game. You can look for moments, but you can't leave yourself exposed and in the 17th minute to Mbappe running back at you three on two. That's just not going to be successful.
00:25:08
Speaker
100% got to stay in in the game early. So look, I think the the odds are ended up that France is a big favorite here as they should be. France should win. But Morocco did it before Morocco is should, you know, took out the Netherlands like this is a very good team. And also, i think if you're Morocco, you're leaning into some of your annoying habits and tendencies to try to get under Francis kid as much as possible.
00:25:30
Speaker
Listen, we've seen Morocco in AFCON. They could be an extremely annoying team. And look, there's there's stuff on the line here. So like try to frustrate France as many ways as you can. It's going to be fun. I'm really looking forward to this one. It's going to be a really, really good quarterfinal. I think Morocco will be the biggest test that France have faced outside of what they got from Senegal. And like you said bit, that game was fairly even for a long stretch. Senegal held their own. I think Morocco can can do the same here. Let's move on to the other quarterfinal on this side of the bracket. It will be played on Friday. It's Spain and Belgium. I bet Rudy Garcia did his trick.
00:26:05
Speaker
It worked against Charlotte FC's Tim Rehm and New York City FC's Matt Fries and a team that frankly wasn't up for the moment. Now, can you ruffle the best team on the ball in the world? And without Onana, their midfielder who went off injured in that U.S. game, it feels like the task here is going to be a lot for this Belgium side.
00:26:25
Speaker
It does. And very clearly from a high level, right? Portugal, really, really good technical team, even with Ronaldo, was close to Spain, right? Maybe fifth or sixth in the world. And Spain just choked them out over 90 minutes.
00:26:38
Speaker
Belgium, I think, whatever your power rankings are, is maybe three or four teams worse than Portugal on on the hierarchy on the ladder somewhere. And the talent is worse. The speed, the team speed is worse. And that just profiles very poorly against a team like Spain.
00:26:54
Speaker
Spain choked Portugal out. What do you think Spain's going to do in this game? They're going to choke them out with the ball, death by a thousand cuts and runs, not necessarily by passes. They're just going to make it really uncomfortable on you.
00:27:05
Speaker
And then they're going to break you. However, the you know what Belgium have to do. They don't have to try to play on the ball like Portugal did. There's no question of, no, this is two of the most technical midfields of the world. What happens?
00:27:16
Speaker
No, Belgium is the worst team. They're going to sit back, defend and counter and try to use athleticism on the counter whether it's Big Rom, Lukaku, whether it's Doku, even to Ketelare, who showed his, you know, physical qualities.
00:27:30
Speaker
Can he use them again against the Spain back line? You're circling Kubarsi. You're circling Le Normand. It's a moments game. You've got to defend. You're going to have to bunker and you're going to have to find something. For Belgium to do anything other than that in this game would kind of just be inviting Spain to to slap them. They've slapped everyone that's done that. I think Portugal showed like, yeah, we frustrated them for 90 minutes. So like your question is, can you get that thing to 90, 120? And can you steal a goal in a way that Portugal couldn't in the second half? Because quite frankly, you have two or three more dynamic players than Cristiano Ronaldo. That's the map for Belgium.
00:28:07
Speaker
And I think what's interesting here is you circle the midfield. and that's something we circled through Belgium against the USA game. And Onana coming in kind of got Belgium to what I think was their preferred midfield with Teelmans more forward. And you had Onana and Raskin. Uh-oh, Onana out.
00:28:23
Speaker
Teelmans is probably sliding back into the midfield and you're probably playing Vonneken at the 10, which is what they, that was the adjustment they made against the US. That midfield against the Spain midfield is probably going to look like Spain counter-pressing anytime Belgium had the ball. And anytime Spain have the ball, of Belgium are going to either be steps late or not stepping at all. And Spain are just going to dominate possession.
00:28:44
Speaker
Correct. Belgium can try to play, right? You could try Vonneken, Tielemans, Raskin and try to play through the counterpress. It probably won't work, but maybe you you catch Spain in a moment. I think Spain's superpower this whole tournament has actually been how good their defense has been on the strength of their counterpress.
00:29:02
Speaker
Rodri has been excellent. So have Patri and Olmo and the front three in front of them. Maybe you start De Bruyne again. Maybe you go De Bruyne, Telemans, Raskin. That's a bad team defensively, but maybe you're like, look, we got to keep the ball, right? We got to somehow keep the ball.
00:29:19
Speaker
I don't think Rudy Garcia would do that, but... I mean, is there any, error are we missing something? Like, can Belgium try to keep the ball and hurt Spain? Portugal couldn't. Portugal, to me, is a much more technical team. I mean, marginally. Like, Belgium's good. We saw the level against the United States, but like, a much more technical team than Belgium, Portugal was.
00:29:39
Speaker
Yeah, I don't think so. So I think you're looking to see, okay, what can Belgium do on the counter? And you've got Jeremy Doku, like it was a wrinkle against the US that he didn't start. I think he has to start here. I think you need to play as many minutes as possible with him on the pitch.
00:29:52
Speaker
And then you're pairing him with probably De Katelari and Lukaku for some combination of 90 minutes. And you're kind of hoping that maybe you find something there. Maybe Luka Bakio gives you something on the counter. Yeah.
00:30:06
Speaker
Yeah, the other thing you could do is something we talked we haven't talked about. is You could go Doku left, you could go Trossard right, and then or Trossard central, and then Luka Bakio right. Or the other thing you could do, if you really need to muck this thing up, you could go Doku, Luka Bakio, Salamakers, a player we didn't see that much against the United States. Salamakers is a good runner, right? So if you have runners on both wings, maybe there's something in there, he could bench Doku again. I don't think he should, but what if he did...
00:30:36
Speaker
Trossard 10 and then Salamakras and Luka Bakio and just said, we're going to have two defensive you know wingers in to just run, run, run and try to get to minute 60 where then we bring on Doku, Lukaku and Trossard for quality on the counter and make Spain think twice.
00:30:58
Speaker
ah Bobby Martinez did that with Liao. He benched his best attacker. It didn't work. Liao gets 30 minutes. It doesn't work. So it's it's kind of a lose-lose. I don't know if you think one is better than the other.
00:31:11
Speaker
i just don't know how you approach this Spain team because... Even if you can somehow keep them from having the ball in infinitely in this game, their counterpress has been so good in this tournament. And that's a spot where we were heavily concerned for Belgium against the U.S. press that we thought was going to be able to dominate the midfield. That's not how that game played out, but it feels like that's how this game plays out. And then if we get into the game state, emit where Spain just has the ball, you look at the individual matchups, and I think you're just backing Spain and all of them, particularly this might finally be the Lamin-Yemalga.
00:31:44
Speaker
It might finally be. He had a tough game against Nuno Mench for Portugal, who's a great one-on-one defender, maybe the best left back in the world. But this is Hugo de Kuyper, who is a solid technical player for Belgium, but he's not quite the athlete, does not have, i think, the ability to hang with Laminia Mall. What Belgium did against United States was excellent. De Kuyper is pressing Serginio Dest 40 yards up the field on the turn.
00:32:10
Speaker
I think there's a level between Serginio Dest and Laminia Mall. Really? You think so? Bold claim for Litt Malek on the World Cup After Dark podcast. Be careful. You might make headlines. Right, right. There's a talent gap. And so if DeKuyper presses that high, Yamal's turning you and running in behind, and then you know he's doing a quick combo. And so instead, I think this is the Lamin-Yamal take on DeKuyper game and just go at him over and over. And this is where you're generating your chances. um And...
00:32:41
Speaker
Look, at some point, like the Belgium center backs have been the weakness for this team the entire tournament. It's not that Mikel Ogrethalba is going to hurt you over the top, but I just think, you know, a player like Ngoi, player like Mekele, the movement of Ogrethalba and of Dani Olmo should be what creates opportunities in the box.
00:33:00
Speaker
Like truly, I think Portugal center backs... Played really well all game, but Vega and Diaz are better than Mekele and whether it's Teot or Ngoi. So I just struggle for Belgium's backline to hold up over the course of this game.
00:33:15
Speaker
This should be a really big Lamin-Yemal game. The one area Belgium has is if it's Doku, can he make Pedro Porro pay one-on-one? And even then, even with that one-on-one matchup, I think the stuff behind you is tough. So maybe you're going for a Doku Lukaku. 30 minutes of this game is when I need to to to win this game. Lukaku has been really good. I think you could maybe find something there too on the counterattack.
00:33:41
Speaker
Do you just hang at 0-0 for long enough? Spain commit. Spain commit. They leave two guys back. You have two guys. Maybe it's a two-on-three, three-on-two, one way or the other. You get them and score.
00:33:53
Speaker
that that that's the path for Belgium. But even if you're up one, I just like, how are you? hol How are you withstanding the Spain revs up the engine? And I think if you were playing that nil-nil kind of extreme bunker style, Thibaut Courtois is going to be massive here. And he's one of the best pure shot stoppers still in this day and age. Like Belgium need a big Thibaut Courtois game. They're going to need some big saves because there's going to be chances from Spain.
00:34:18
Speaker
But when Spain have kind of been dumped out of these tournaments, it's been that kind of game state of Spain have all the ball, struggle to create chances, chances they create are saved, and you're hitting them on the counter. And maybe you can talk yourself into doing that with Doku and Lukaku, but I don't think you can do that consistently throughout the game. The legs just aren't there for those guys.
00:34:36
Speaker
So at some point, you're probably just going to be withstanding pressure and lumping the ball long, recycling, and it here it comes again. and i don't know that this Belgium team are built to do that for 90 120 minutes. Agreed. If you were building the team to do this against Spain, you wish you had better center backs. You also wish you had better full backs.
00:34:54
Speaker
And I think also, you probably wish you had a better midfield. Yeah. All three of those things. So think a couple of attackers to while you're at it, like we're fixing things, let's just fix that. Right. Right. Cucure and Poro have been really good. I think that's where bell where Spain gets you know their eighth the seventh and eighth guy into the attack is when you're really struggling to defend. And that's where the center backs lose a mark. So...
00:35:20
Speaker
Look, I think you got to roll it out. I think Rudy Garcia is not a dumb manager. He's going to try and maybe there's some wrinkles we haven't seen. But I just think De La Fuente, like his baseline is so good. And he also, if things somehow go wrong south or stagnate in this game, he's got way, way more options to to push on. Right. He's got Faron Torres. He's got Mikel Moreno, who, you know, it's not a secret anymore, is a really, really good option late. He's even got a Gavi like somewhere in here that he could throw on. Right. Maybe there's Nico Williams somewhere he can throw on. And so 120 minutes is a long, long time to try try to hold this thing off.
00:35:59
Speaker
I think it is. And look, I think it's worth pointing out again. Spain haven't conceded yet at this tournament. They have played five games. They have conceded no goals. And they really haven't had like Unai Simon hasn't really had to make any saves either.
00:36:12
Speaker
Honestly, I think the the one thing you could find for Belgium is when they were down against Senegal, they were able to pin Senegal in and just assault the box with Big Rom and Senegal being backed off. Maybe if Spain is only up one in 10 minutes, you you kind of force the defensive subs. De La Fuente wants to sit on it and you get...
00:36:31
Speaker
big ROM and maybe a Mertius Fernandez Pardo on and you box us all tie it up. Then the game just kind of fizzles in extra time because they don't want to play. I don't like I don't know. But like I do think somehow hanging around in a way where Spain doesn't kill you is is the way to go. Right.
00:36:49
Speaker
Yeah, but that's just such a narrow path to walk. It just really is. You didn't mention Nico Williams. like He's another option here. like The Spain team, is just there's a lot of options, and they felt inevitable against Portugal. I know it had to go all the way into into second half stoppage time before it happened, but you never really felt like they were at risk, right? And and so Ken Belgium— If you didn't feel that then, why are you going to feel it now? Right. What about this game is going to be different than that? And look, Belgium played really well against the U.S. They played really well to come back against Senegal. They're playing with the motivation of everything that happened with the Ballying case and all of that. But I feel like this is just a different story now. It's a different day. It's a different game.
00:37:28
Speaker
And Spain, I think, are heavily favored here and they probably should be heavily favored here.
Striker Showdown: England's Kane vs Norway's Haaland
00:37:33
Speaker
doubleheader on Saturday, Amit, and it starts with Thomas Tuchel's England against the monster that is Erling Haaland. Amit, Haaland versus Kane.
00:37:44
Speaker
Choose your fighter. I mean, I'll choose early Holland, but I you know, this is a great, great game for the striker matchup. And not just that they're the, you know, the headline players on the field. It's that their teams are designed around them. So how do you deal with their threat in the box? One is a much more physical one V one monster that you can't let get to one V one. And the other guy ah is much more of a mentally, where do you,
00:38:10
Speaker
read his shape and never lose him over the course of a game. And Norway have not dealt with a striker like this, this entire time. They've dealt with a lot of things, but against Brazil, no real number nine, right? Against Ivory Coast, number nine was a letdown. So this is maybe finally the level for these Norway center backs to to reach their match.
00:38:30
Speaker
Look, it's a really good game. The other thing you know, in terms of hoovers who versus who, Staley Stolbach and Stolbach has proven himself to be a really, really good manager. And I think he's figured some things out. and I think the changes he made against Brazil were very proactive and they helped them win that game. On the other side for England, and Thomas Tuchel will admit, I think he has 10, maybe nine guys really set in his lineup. I think he probably coming out of that Mexico game, I don't see how you don't start Gordon and Saka on the wings. Obviously Jude Bellingham, obviously Kane, the midfield is set.
00:39:03
Speaker
I don't know what he's going to do at right back. And I don't know that Thomas Tuchel knows what he's going to do at right back. So obviously, Quanta suspended after his red card against Mexico. At least i have to caveat this because of what happened in the last round. He's suspended as we record this podcast. We do not expect him to play, but given what's happened in FIFA, you never know at this point. The other options here, right? So Reese James is apparently back training. There's some thought that he maybe could play a role. but it seems unlikely that he's going 90 or 120 minutes. Jed Spence played against Mexico, but it didn't look like he was super comfortable, and I don't think you're getting 90 minutes there either.
00:39:36
Speaker
So do you shift Kansa out to right back? That might work, but then am admit you're changing your center back routine, right? And you're probably bringing in John Stones, who didn't look great against Croatia. There's a real problem here for England, and I think this is the spot of the pitch that Norway are going have to take advantage of, whether it's Nusa, whether it's Sheldrlop, or whether it's some combination of the two.
00:39:57
Speaker
Probably will be too. And it's a really good question for Stalbachen to say, does he start with Antonio Nusa to go 1v1, take advantage, or does he try to hurt with passing? I'm probably starting with Nusa, right? Just to to see if I can get that dynamism. I think Sheldrup has been an awesome changeup that teams have to to work for in the second half when there's a little bit more space. Yeah.
00:40:18
Speaker
I mean, I'm of the mindset I don't want to move Kansa out next to Gehi when the guy is Holland. Like, I just think Stones is a little bit less dynamic and you need that foot speed to deal with Erling Holland and physicality. It's funny, right? Like, Stones is a Man City guy. Gehi is a main Man City guy. Is there some sort of hidden unquantifiable advantage for them playing with Holland all year and that they know a little bit better? Yeah.
00:40:46
Speaker
Gehi, great player. He's not the tallest. He's a very good athlete. He can jump. But you're circling Holland. Gehi is like, oh, boy, can we get that one-on-one cross? And Kansa, too, is a a good center back. But like Holland also, Holland eats every center back in the world for for breakfast, lunch, and dinner for his 6,000 calories a day. He just ate Gabriel and Marquinhos.
00:41:08
Speaker
These guys are worse, right? This is actually the one area where... how do we How do we stop this guy? And you have to stop him the whole time. And to me, it goes back to the ball cannot get to his orbit. So you have to shut down the crosses. And so I think...
00:41:26
Speaker
Nusa, 1v1 dribbling, you've got to have an answer, but you've also got to bring the help defender, whether that's Saka, whether that's Rice or Anderson, to deny this cross.
00:41:37
Speaker
um Look, Rice could start here too. if it's Rice versus Nusa, that's okay. Rice versus Stalbach, and I really like because Rice is a smart player. so i don't think we're expecting the manager to line himself up a left. That'd be quite a...
00:41:51
Speaker
That would be funny. got Got all these S names mixed up in Norway. um I don't know exactly what Tuchel does. I think maybe you start Spence because it might be Noosa and you're going, give me the give me the the athlete here to try to deal with him.
00:42:06
Speaker
um And then if it's Sheldorov, you think about your mix up. I wouldn't start Rhys James because i'm I don't think he's fully fit.
00:42:16
Speaker
I definitely would not move Kansa out. I don't think you play stones either. so like, I don't know. Listen, you could also do some sort of Saka wingback wrinkle. I don't think Tuca wants to change his formation. Yeah, I don't think you want to play. Like they went five at the back against Mexico to kind of see that out. And that was also conditioned by the fact that they were playing with 10. I don't think you want to change formation. This is really a case where you would love for it to be like ice hockey, where one team has to submit their lineup first. Right. yeah So if Stahlbanken puts his guys in and then, you know, Tuchel can counter that, but he doesn't have that. And so he's kind of walking blind here. All right. So we take that out of the equation. Right. We've discussed that that's going to be a spot. The thing about Holland is obviously, and we've seen this, the Duke doesn't need a warmup. Like there are some strikers where like, oh, he's getting closer. next...
00:43:01
Speaker
Doesn't matter for a Holland. First chance could be right to his head. Boom. It's in the back. Like you just cannot give him that in 90 minutes. You're playing with fire every time that he does that. So let's take that out of the equation now and let's kind of shift forward and let's look at when England have the ball, what they're looking at with Norway and what they're trying to do. I think, as I said earlier, I think Ducal's found his mix, right? I think it's Kane, Bellingham, Gordon, Saka. I think that's the four guys you're starting this game with. Dude, Bellingham was awesome against Mexico. I think that's a player that England are really counting on in this game to kind of do a bit of everything and also combine with and provide service for Kane, who I think is looking at these Norwegian center backs and saying that that's a matchup that he's going to like.
00:43:43
Speaker
he will they'll have to try to find ways to get him the ball I think generally you look at the shape of this game and I think normally played with the ball against Brazil but you saw what Mexico did to England and England's chances came in transition and England when you take away their space have generally labored much much more this entire tournament so I think if there was a time to to kind of make England come at you and be the team on the counter. This would be the game, right?
00:44:11
Speaker
And in which case, I think you've got to circle Sokka on Moellerwolf. It's got to be the one where you're trying to get him one-on-one as much as possible. Jude comes over and helps. Wherever Jude pops up, that's where you're trying to find stuff in the box.
00:44:25
Speaker
If this is a transition game, like I don't think you can stop Jude in transition right now. So that's the scariest thing for Norway. And then you're trying to get Holland in transition. I think this is a classic Tuchel knockout game. It's going to be really cage matchy and it's going to be really slow and methodical. Because if it's not, I just don't think that Norway creates enough against the low block, right? Especially if you're detailed to stop the crosses. Are we missing something here? Is Stolbach going to surprise us again?
00:44:54
Speaker
I think it would be very dangerous to do it, but I also think there could be a case to be made that, hey, England will probably give you possession for half an hour if you want it. like I think England have kind of put that out there that they're not going to come out of the blocks storming to start games. It's not really in their DNA.
00:45:12
Speaker
So maybe if you're Norway, do you think... let's try and get three and a half crosses to Holland in the first 25 minutes of this game. And maybe one of them will be in the back of the net. And then we can condition the game state and then we can run in in a counter and make it and come at us. I don't know. I think there could be something there.
00:45:28
Speaker
But one thing I also keep coming back to is I think Norway are a good team physically. i think they have pretty good presence in the box. We'll talk about the X factor and goal in a minute with Ryland.
00:45:39
Speaker
England set pieces here are just circled, highlighted, underlined. I think that's another spot that they're going to be looking for to try and make life hard for Norway. A hundred percent. That's been ah something they can call on this whole time. We haven't quite seen. And look, Kane on set pieces is also like sometimes his most dangerous spot where he gets loose. Declan Rice's set piece delivery has also been really, really incredible for England.
00:46:03
Speaker
um I think this is ah just such a dangerous game because of Holland and because of Norwich do a player we haven't talked about yet is Oscar Bob, right? You hang around enough and you start getting him. And can you you ask questions of Nico O'Reilly? we haven't really talked about that entire side for England, right? mean, we talked about Martin Odegaard that much because you just kind of assume you Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson should kind of be pocketing that guy. They've also got a pocket Berg as well. But like the things that have worked for Norway generally in their run shouldn't work against the Tuchel setup other than Holland wins a 1v1 against a slightly inferior center back.
00:46:41
Speaker
But everything here is better than what Brazil had and what Ivory Coast has had. I think the decision at right wing is interesting for Stalbaken too, because Sorloth is kind of, we talked like, he's just a really interesting player here for Norway where he's kind of out of position. You're trying to pigeonhole him into the squad because he's a really talented player. But do you maybe go with Bob from the start and try to be dynamic on both wings with Bob and Nusa or maybe Bob and Jelup and you do something there and maybe Sorloth is a, you go to two nine situation, chasing a goal down late in this game. I think that's something that could be really interesting And then the X factor, i it and I think this is big, Nyland was really, really good in goal for Norway against Brazil. I think he's had a really good tournament. I think he's been a player that's really turned some heads and caught some eyes.
00:47:26
Speaker
Jordan Pickford is Jordan Pickford, right? Like he is what he is at this point. I thought he was really good against Mexico. I think there's also absolutely a chance that at some point there's a howler just waiting to happen. And I know it might not be this round, might be the next round, it might be the final. Like it's coming at some point, probably, or maybe it already came against DR Congo they survived it. But I think goal is probably a spot where Norway will feel like they have an advantage. And look, I feel like this is a broken record. But for all of these underdog teams, and we're going to talk about the exact same thing with Koble for Switzerland. We talked about Bonu.
00:47:55
Speaker
We talked about Courtois. We're going to talk about Nylund. You have to have a great goalkeeping day if you're going to stay in this game. And he did it against um Brazil the last time. So it's a little less sticky game to game, but he might have another one and just got to be ready for Kane or Bellingham on some of those headers to to make a big save.
00:48:14
Speaker
Look, I think... Norway doesn't necessarily need to to get to pens, right? I think they want to score in the 90. I think out of all the four quarterfinals, this one could have goals yeah once it gets one. If it doesn't get one, I think Tuchel will be very, very careful because of Holland. But once it gets goals, I think both of these teams will be very, very aggressive at chasing the game, which could be very fun, right? Like, I don't think England up one,
00:48:39
Speaker
is going to feel safe when Holland is the box assault guy. And i think Norway up one, I mean, we've seen England really crank it up. So the best way for Norway to win this game is be up two, like they were against Brazil. That totally, you know, totally changed the game. And so they've got a game state and they got to get ahead. and then you and then you might be able to do it.
00:48:57
Speaker
One final X factor here, a bit. It's a Saturday night in Miami with two Northern European teams. It's probably going to be 90. It's probably going to be humid. Fitness is going to play a role here too.
00:49:08
Speaker
It is. And I think England are a slightly more fit team just based on a guy like Declan Rice, who has insane lungs, and a guy like Gordon, who has insane lungs. But look, Norway have been up for it as well. So we'll see how that we'll see how England deals with the heat. Right. England are also coming off a really high exertion game against Mexico. Right. And travel.
00:49:30
Speaker
yes i Yes, but there has been six days from that. So like I think yeah like the the extended rest time, they have an extra day of rest here for England, but it's kind of negated by the travel fact. and the outside ah It's probably even there, but I think it's worth noting at least in like the conditions I think are are going to play a role in this one. So I think this is going to be really fun. This is going to feel like a big World Cup match with all of the intricacies and and the tactical chessboard and everything that we like about it. And Norway, new blood here, right? They're playing every game that Norway play at this World Cup is their biggest game ever, really, right? And so because of that, I think it makes for for some really interesting stuff. So it should be pretty good. Last game, Amit, is Argentina against Switzerland Saturday night in Kansas City.
Argentina vs Switzerland: Strengths and Strategies
00:50:12
Speaker
Should be another very pro-Argentine crowd. Argentina playing in the city where they have based themselves. Look, it's Argentina against a fairly organized, vaguely talented team. Amit, have we seen this before in the knockout round?
00:50:27
Speaker
just the last two times in a row, right? But the difficulty level is a bit higher. Sure. I think this game is going to look a lot like those games look. And so Argentina are probably going to have a lot of the ball. I think Switzerland will be content to do that. So the question from the Swiss perspective is, can they be as effective countering and creating moments as Egypt and Cape Verde were?
00:50:49
Speaker
And without Monzambi, we expect, right? I, I, It doesn't feel like this is going to be a game where he can play. You're also looking at Ruben Vargas, who gave them 30 minutes against Colombia, was a doubt going into that game. It's a relatively quick turnaround, right? Only three days off before this game is played.
00:51:08
Speaker
From a Swiss perspective, you're looking at Dan and Doyle. You're looking at Pruil and Bolo. The rest of the attacking options are wholeheartedly mid, right? Some combination of Jashari, Froyler, So, Amduni, Eaton.
00:51:22
Speaker
Probably going to see all of those guys at some point. Don't know if I feel great about seeing any of those guys if I'm the Swiss and Murray Akin. Argentina have created, and despite it all, despite the goals they've given up to both those games, they scored three goals in those games. They have scored well in every single game that they have played.
00:51:39
Speaker
I expect that that should be able to happen again. Is there a chance that this kind of looks like the Austria game for Argentina? I'm not quite so sure because Switzerland are just a little bit better defending. Like to me, the thing is that Columbia are defend with numbers and they just were like, we're not going to overcommit necessarily. We don't really are, aren't the type of team to overcommit. And so Switzerland's,
00:52:06
Speaker
Limited numbers had nowhere to to go. i think the the way this thing works is you're trying to get Argentina to get eight guys up the field, and then you might have some space for Dan and Doy. You might have some space for Ruben Vargas, and maybe it looks better, right?
00:52:24
Speaker
the issue is I just don't see the midfield, like being able to hold up against the art. Like it's not a plus on speed or athleticism versus that Argentine midfield. So it's like, you're kind of trying to survive 90 or 120. Like,
00:52:39
Speaker
Austria hit long balls when they had to like Switzerland and Bolo and who, right? And so maybe you're trying to get in Bolo on Lissandra Martinez, one view one for long ball outlets as much as you can. But I think generally this is Switzerland, defend, defend, defend, get everyone back and try to frustrate Argentina into leaving space for some form of a 1v1 for for tan and toy to do something on the counter this swiss attack though without manzambi in this tournament has been pretty pedestrian right didn't score against colombia i know there were a lot of colombian numbers back this is a team that scored one goal against literally qatar without manzambi playing a big role in that game right struggled against bosnia for a stretch before manzambi came on and changed things
00:53:26
Speaker
I think this Swiss team has kind of become, in this iteration, at this tournament, at this moment, very Monsami dependent. And so with him out, like, yes, Argentina can't be naive. You're not, like, you don't want to be leaving Dan and Doy running at you two-on-one with Mbolo. Like, that's just a bad place to be.
00:53:43
Speaker
But I think if you look at Argentina's biggest weakness right now, it's probably their midfield. And I don't think the Swiss are particularly well positioned to take advantage of that. That's exactly it. Like, truthfully, Cape Verde's midfield athleticism, Egypt's midfield athleticism are better than Switzerland's midfield athleticism.
00:54:03
Speaker
It's Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler who are just not going to be like, we're going to, you know, run you off the field. They're going to pick passes and ping long balls. They can't cover that ground.
00:54:14
Speaker
So I think this is a really, really good. good place for Argentina to be. The things you want to see from them is we've got to deal with this Macalester-DePaul way one way or the other. One of them has to go, i think, and maybe Switzerland like is just the level you can get away with it. And you need some playmaking instead somewhere with a little bit of speed. Some width is going to be needed to break down Switzerland. Switzerland's going to watch what Argentina did against England and go, we're going to make you get an extra attacking wide player on, which is going to help our whole math equation. Because if you don't, we're just going to, you're not going to be able to break us down. And so the answer is, if you need to break Switzerland down,
00:54:57
Speaker
you've got to call on the, got to call on the guy. You got to call on the goat. And you got to say, you know what you did against Egypt those last 30 minutes? Show, turn back the clock for me one more time, Lionel.
00:55:07
Speaker
Ricardo Rodriguez is their left back. You're our right winger. Have fun. And like, I think that's just the the equilibrium endgame of where this thing goes, right? Yeah, and I think that's the matchup that Argentina will feel really good about. I think Dennis Zekiria at right back has been really good for Switzerland. That's where Argentina started the game looking for width against Egypt, right? There was a lot of Nicolas Tagliafico going forward providing that width. I think you feel good about Zekiria in that matchup, but yeah, it's Ricardo Rodriguez at left back, and it's Messi being able to slide out wide and just...
00:55:37
Speaker
the more left footed crosses Messi sends in, eventually you feel like Argentina are going to have success with that. if that's the game state this goes to. A hundred percent. And so i think I'm maybe keeping Alvarez on the bench for, I need a goal later for him to run. i want Lataro up top. I want Messi as a right wing.
00:55:57
Speaker
i want Paredes at the center. And I kind of want Tiago Almada in this game yeah somewhere at the 10 or at the left wing. And I want ah Enzo too. Whether Enzo and Almada or who's left, who's center, I don't really care. And then I need someone else that's not McAllister. I need one of McAllister or DePaul.
00:56:15
Speaker
And one of those players I'm yanking for Almada. I think to me is where I want this to go. And I don't need two strikers, right? I want one striker and Messi as a winger. Yeah, and that's, I think, the lineup question for Scaloni, right? So the defense is is obviously set in center. They've pretty much just rotated the four fullbacks, Medina, Molina, Montiel, Taliafico, pretty much consistently throughout this tournament. I think you'll probably see Taliafico on the left because I think he's the best at providing width and kind of being a quasi left winger for this team. So I i think you'll see that. And then, yeah, in the midfield,
00:56:48
Speaker
Look, um you're asking, is it Alvarez or Lautaro alongside Messi? I think I'm with you. I think I lean Lautaro. Paredes, I think, should stay. I think what he did against Egypt was more than enough for that. Enzo Fernandez obviously stays. And then, yeah, it's the McAllister-DePaul. One's got to go, and then they go for who? Is it Almada? Is it a player like Nico Gonzalez, who was used as a fullback down the stretch against Egypt to provide width?
00:57:10
Speaker
Are you looking at Gonzalez as maybe a more out-and-out left winger? Or are you kind of counting on Almada and are you playing those channel runners kind of like Argentina did earlier in this tournament? um And then you look at the other side for the Swiss and Elvedi and Nakanji, they held up against Colombia.
00:57:25
Speaker
They held up against Algeria. Can they hold up against Argentina? Because if this game kind of follows the system, we think it will, there's probably going to be a lot of box assault from Argentina. Can those two guys hold it off?
00:57:38
Speaker
They've been great in the air. And so that's an area where I think they need to be good in the game. And honestly, I think that's where Argentina, if you want to hurt Switzerland, you need to be good at dribbling. That's why I want Almada. That's why I want Messi. Then you said like, yes, Messi crosses it.
00:57:53
Speaker
I think honestly, this game is like, can you get any of your guys you like, whether it's Enzo, Almada or Messi with the head of steam, like cutting in to find a shot or doing that one, two that we know they like, but I think box assault, yes, you're going to try, but Akandji and Alvedi have been good at that. I think you're trying to make Xhaka, Freuler, and those guys like have to defend your dribbling without fouling and prevent a shot from that zone that Messi likes.
00:58:22
Speaker
So I think in a way that Colombia didn't, right what was Colombia's weakness was that take on ability. It was just shots and long balls. like They never really like made Switzerland step up on an island and feel like, how do I defend your shift?
00:58:36
Speaker
Your shiftiness. That's what Messi is so, so good at. So like every game he gives you that different element. To me, that's the element that I think wins you this this kind of game here. And also just as always, his ability to operate in tight space, right? This is a tight space game.
00:58:50
Speaker
There's going to be a low block from Switzerland. So Argentina are at some point probably going to need or are going to try to make those tight space one, two combination plays work. Sliver of half space shot.
00:59:01
Speaker
That's going to be a lot of also what Argentina look like. Agreed. And that's also why Alvarez off the bench is good, because then I think you don't you don't want him up top. He's going to be kind of stuck against congenial Vady. But if you bring him on as a 10, perhaps, say for Almada or Fernandez and you work that left side, then he can kind of be an extra guy in that little pocket in front of the center backs to hurt you, too. And also make shotgun fuller, like not have a lot of good places to go.
00:59:29
Speaker
Look, I think Argentina have a lot of different options to do it. It's going to be a question of doing it against a Swiss back line that is more organized and better at box assault than Cape Verde in Egypt. like they're better They're not as dynamic in the midfield, but they're stronger and more taller and more physical on the back line. So this is the game where you have to beat them using your your creativity and silkiness.
00:59:53
Speaker
But also you're kind of feeling like Switzerland might not ask as many questions. And so you probably won't need to score three times like you did in those two games. Two might be enough here. And i you kind of feel like this is the game state for Argentina to do that. 120 minutes is to be a long time for Switzerland. They also just played 120 minutes against Colombia. And again, as always, Gregor Koval, goalkeeper, has got to be big. Both of the teams that have frustrated Argentina, that have taken them to the brink, got great goalkeeping performances, right? Vosinha was more maybe collectively than individually, but Shovir, Mustafa Shovir for Egypt was phenomenal. He was fantastic in that game, and he still gave up three goals. You need Gregor Koval to come up with a lot of saves. You're going need him to frustrate Argentina.
01:00:35
Speaker
He has to. And so generally, I just think the path for Switzerland here is really, really hard without Monzambi. It just comes to there's not enough attacking. And at that point, and you're just holding on as long as you can. And that's not really going to work against an Argentina team that has a no problem putting up the XG in this tournament. Like, I think the most likely outcome here is 2-0.
01:00:56
Speaker
Yeah, like they they get it done. They get a second and they don't really have to super exert themselves. it's Really hard to see Switzerland scoring multiple goals, even one goal in this game. But there have been moments where the Argentine defense has been caught out. There have been moments where they've been stretched and maybe there's an opportunity for for Switzerland to run into that. And again, Argentina's general state of being has been absolute chaos and last minute wins.
01:01:21
Speaker
I don't like this feels like this should be relatively straightforward, like some of those group stage games were. And then you look at what they've done in the knockout round and you're like, I don't know if I can trust that. Yes, 100%. Yes. And Mert Yaquine will have a trick up his sleeve. But this, in a way, is like the best stylistic matchup out of the three teams. I don't know. It's that crazy. Like, maybe we're just maybe it's over reading the man zombie injury. But like, it's really changed Switzerland to being much more one dimensional.
01:01:53
Speaker
Yeah, I think you're right. I think you're right. i think Argentina are in a good spot here. But again, this is much watched television because it has been for the entirety of these two World Cup runs. And this one certainly will be as well. You excited for these games? I'm in.
01:02:05
Speaker
Of course, Saturday too as well, right? I wish they almost could have spread us out for four days, but it's going to be fantastic stuff. And um listen, even if the four favorites go through, then we all just get to enjoy the, you know, the blockbuster ending we've all been waiting for. So I don't think there's any bad way this ends.
01:02:22
Speaker
You got any picks for me? I'll give you my picks after you give me your picks. I'm going chalk. Give me the give me the top four favorites. I know who you did. get Go ahead. Tell me who you think is going to not come through. I'm taking three chalks and I'm taking Norway over England. I think Erling Holland is i think it's the Viking. I think Norway have got it. They're going to row their way into the World Cup semifinals or something like that. I also think Morocco can give France a game. i think we're going to see France sweat a little bit, but I think France are just probably a bit too much, but I think kicking off with that game is going really, really interesting. And I'm really looking forward to it. There'll be plenty as always from us here at the world cup after dark. Amit and I will be back tomorrow to recap France, Morocco. We will obviously just keep referring you back to this podcast for all of the preview stuff.
01:03:03
Speaker
But, Games Friday and then the doubleheader on Saturday. And then we're into the last week of the World Cup. So still a lot to come, but we're further along than we were when we started, obviously. But still plenty World Cup after dark for you guys to enjoy it before this tournament wraps up. That is it for Amit and I today.
01:03:18
Speaker
Find us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts. Rate, review, thumbs up, comment, questions, everything. We're here for it. And if you want to support us, you can do that patreon.com slash WCAD. that's all for now from us. We will see you guys tomorrow after France Morocco. Enjoy the games and talk to you soon.