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WCAD 4-31: Round of 32 Preview
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After a quick recap of Canada-South Africa, the guys give an in-depth preview of the 15 other Round of 32 matchups.
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Transcript
Recovery and Impact of Big Sauce's Header
00:00:00
Speaker
I think we've recovered from what we witnessed at the end of the group stage. I still see Big Sauce's header for Austria. Like I just saw it all night while I was sleeping. it just It was just replaying over and over my head. But I think we've recovered enough from the group stage to start focusing on the knockout round a minute.
00:00:20
Speaker
We have. It was nice of FIFA to give us one game today and give us a little bit of breathing room before and after to digest everything. Still get a little taste of the knockout football of what's to come.
00:00:32
Speaker
But um yeah, I think we we and everyone, the global soccer community needed that.
Anticipation and Strategy for Knockout Rounds
00:00:38
Speaker
So I think now the anticipation is building in for you know this slate of incredible games. And not everyone is incredible, but there's just about something for everyone. And so...
00:00:49
Speaker
Even today, as we talk about Canada versus South Africa, you just start – that pure knockout creeps in and and you can't beat that feeling. this is These are like truly the three weeks to cherish in sports. Yeah. I know that you love previewing knockout round football because it's like a big chess board and you just love analyzing where the pieces are at, which pieces you have. But it's unlike chess in that sometimes you can just pull a queen from your pocket or or maybe you're pulling a pawn to to keep the chess analogy. That's what makes this part so fun.
00:01:22
Speaker
Yeah, it's – this is where the managers – obviously the players, but the managers have to really earn like they're at their keep because four years – Your final rankings, your legacies, everything comes down to win and go home. And it's like the Champions League in a way, but like it's it's magnified times 10. So every little decision matters. you just A really good game plan goes a really long way, and there's tight turnarounds. But you can't leave a stone unturned because we find the margins at knockout soccer, and this is not just international soccer, but the margins in knockout soccer turn into the tiniest things.
00:02:01
Speaker
And in preparing for it, you can't catch it all. You certainly you're not going to figure out exactly everything that we're surprised by everything all the time. But it's super, super fun to think about. And then we sometimes more the fun is to think about it because sometimes knockout soccer is bad. But I have a feeling this World Cup rate is generally going to be good.
00:02:19
Speaker
We've had a fantastic hit rate in the group stage, like best group stage ever. I think it is certainly on the cards. This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. I am Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik. On today's show, going to give you a quick Canada-South Africa recap that started the knockout round.
00:02:33
Speaker
And then we're going to go through the rest of the round of 32. We're going to touch on every game. We will probably spend more time on some games than others. But Amit's got it his big chessboard out. He's got his pieces and we're going to go through it all. So so let's start with South Africa-Canada. the game that opened the knockout round today, Amit.
00:02:50
Speaker
And I think it was a pretty good microcosm of what knockout round soccer is, right?
Canada vs South Africa: Key Moments and Analysis
00:02:56
Speaker
Canada were better, but this game was screaming for a moment of quality.
00:03:01
Speaker
And finally, in the 90 plus minutes, Canada found the moment of quality from this game and they win 1-0. It's an oversimplification of everything that we saw, but that's what it came down to.
00:03:14
Speaker
Basically, Canada puts up 1.3 XG. South Africa put up like 0.1. And it was a competitive game, but it can be a competitive game by doing nothing on one side. That is the beauty of knockout soccer, to your point. And so it was just who was going to have that moment. And...
00:03:34
Speaker
At any point, South Africa could have had that moment. They were in this game on the ball. They had a few counters, but I think that XG is pretty reflective of how one-sided it was. like They were just not getting any traction in terms of...
00:03:50
Speaker
quality touches near the box. And Canada were struggling for most of this game to create high, high value looks. They have one really good sequence in the first half, I think, of a box assault on a corner kick. But outside of that, like...
00:04:07
Speaker
they're not also creating a lot. So this was a very low level. I'm putting in air quotes like round of 32 World Cup match. Like I think these are two of the teams on the fringes of 32 teams if you had to pick 32 teams. And I think the game they played today was relatively poor.
00:04:24
Speaker
But that is a testament to South Africa, who I think dragged this game into um their best chance, was making it really hard. And they almost get to extra time. I do think if they survive that five minutes, right, if you start to – you can bunker even, even more and think about penalties. So you saw the shape of how this is going to go a lot of ways. But at the end of the day, yeah, sometimes that one finish from a good player can can make the difference. Moise Bombito came back in the lineup for Canada. That was a big difference. i only He only played an hour, but their back line is just so much more together when he's the one kind of centering it. thought he handled the South African attackers really well here. You mentioned the sequence in the first half. Bombito is the guy who has his first shot cleared off the line off a corner. Ron Williams with a big save. South Africa were really struggling to get to halftime, but they got to halftime. And then in the second half, this game was just kind of screaming for quality.
00:05:18
Speaker
And we found out finally Alphonso Davies had 45 minutes in him. And Jesse Marsh had to wait until the 75th minute in order to make sure that those 45 minutes was all that it happened.
00:05:29
Speaker
But Davies comes on. and And I don't think Davies was incredible here. It wasn't like he's the man for the goal, but immediately all the attention and everything in this game goes towards him. And that just unlocks a lot for Canada.
00:05:43
Speaker
Well said. He just his threat, his leverage, his gravity on the ball opens everything up around him. And look, I thought South Africa's individual defending on him was good. Like they generally held up really well in this game. um The right back was really good. Center back and because he had an excellent game today, I think a game, the type of game that adds zeros to your your price tag, like he was really that good.
00:06:05
Speaker
This game was kind of in the three phases. The first half, South Africa have the ball. They're trying to play out. It's not going well. Canada's turning them
Netherlands vs Morocco: Attack vs Defense
00:06:14
Speaker
over completely. And so it ends up Canada just kind of having the ball and struggling against South Africa being set. The second half, it starts and Canada sit back. because especially when Bambito comes off, they can't have the line as high. And so they're kind of just sitting back waiting for canada or South Africa to play through them. South Africa's not getting anywhere. Then Davies comes on and this thing just opens up.
00:06:35
Speaker
And it's like, okay, now we're both going to have moments, but we're going to bet that on one moment of space, it's going to get to us. And... Eventually, it's not necessarily ball progression the prettiest way, but that is what happens on the goal, right? There's one recovery run too late for South Africa tracking Eustachio in the 90th plus minute.
00:06:56
Speaker
It felt like the legs for South Africa just started to go here, right? And so when Schaffelberg sends in the cross, it's the clearance attempt from the the South African defender, and it's cleared right to Eustachio, and it's Ocon with the clearance, and then it's Mo Quena, who I thought was really good in the midfield for South Africa, who's just like a step and a half behind getting to Estakio. And that means that the ball falls right into Estakio's foot. He didn't have his best game. He might not be Canada's best player, but he has a moment of quality. And with space and time to shoot from a good distance with a ball that we know can be struck, he puts it into a spot that Robin Williams can't get to. It's 1-0, and that's that.
00:07:35
Speaker
It was a really, really good finish. Like, Ustakiu has quality on the ball. He's at LAFC. He went to Porto. He came back. I think his pace is what eludes him. And he had a tough game today because South Africa closed him down.
00:07:49
Speaker
But the one time they didn't close him down, he hurt them. And, like, again, that's the margin, right? And somehow you just – you burn the legs. And – I thought Canada on the whole, this was what Marsh does.
00:08:02
Speaker
They run you, they run you, they run you. you Your legs get got in one situation. It's not even a pretty situation. It's not like they uncorked some beautiful 500 pass sequence like whatever Algeria did yesterday against Austria. Five minutes and 39 seconds they had possession. We didn't have the stat when we recorded immediately after the game, but Algeria had the ball for five minutes and 39 seconds.
00:08:24
Speaker
And Canada just never are going to do that on the ball. But I think you saw in the first half, right? It was a really good game for Millar on the left, not even a doing anything, but just running, just running. Schaffelberg comes in, he just runs. And um look.
00:08:39
Speaker
They're missing Kone a lot, Ismail Kone a lot. He's a spiritual leader of this team. And they got just enough from Eustachio here over the course of 90 minutes. And everyone else kind of helps out. Saliba does solid. And the back line held up.
00:08:53
Speaker
Bombito was excellent, as you said. South Africa, when he was in the game, were completely neutralized. And Cornelius and Defuserold, like... Still did enough. South Africa get like one shot from distance in and across in the 90th minute down one. Those were their two best looks at anything towards goal. And that's that's not enough. You're just hoping for zero in pens.
00:09:16
Speaker
Yeah, my Gopal wasn't quite mobile enough for South Africa, right? He's a good target nine. And if you can get the ball to him, he can hold it up, but he can't really go find the space to get the ball. in And so there just wasn't enough service. There wasn't any outlet for South Africa.
00:09:30
Speaker
Exactly. And Opolis was kept in check by Johnston and Richie Larea had definitely read the scouting report on what was happening on that wing. so like it's this is crunch time. Like these this is what we're saying when these teams are dialed in on their game plans. Like South Africa are dangerous, but Canada, I thought Marsh, I thought really were dialed in on the ways they could hurt them. and when they paid attention to them, there were no ways South Africa hurt them. So that could played a great game for what they had in this game, but truly like you can't look at anything.
00:10:05
Speaker
You can't look at anything past that XG number and think that it was like threatening. And I think it was also very interesting here. South Africa's best progressive passer was probably a Makazi, their center back. He was, he was doing everything. He pinged really good balls, but there's just too much space to try and cover when that's where your best passes are coming from. And it just kept them from from getting into really dangerous spots. and And it just kind of felt like that's the difference here. Big for Canada. You're, you're, um, you, Your automatic turn to rest has gotten some attention on some of the podcasts so far that you've done here, Amit, where people like that your first reaction to hearing days in games is to think about rest. Six days here for Canada before they have to play again. That feels like it could be important.
00:10:47
Speaker
It is important. I mean, as this condenses this knockout round, I think there's some three day turnarounds, which is I don't need to go on a rant. Like, I think that's a little bit annoying to expect these super high level, like awesome four years in the waiting games and then have a three-day turnaround around uh for them like we we have the time guys but you know more soccer don't don't get me wrong it'll it'll lead to chaos but yeah six days really really helpful and benefit for the the host and let's talk about canada for a second like
00:11:23
Speaker
Jesse Marsh keeps keeps passing the test, keeps looking real good. He gets a whole speech post-game that the camera catches, and he's saying, like, look at what this means for youth in Canada, and you guys are trailblazers. And cornball or not, Jesse Marsh is right, and he's success. He's gotten them into the last 16. Like, you you play the game in front of you, man. So – Canada's got to be really, really happy.
00:11:50
Speaker
They're going shot at a big boy. And you got to think if Alphonso Davies has anything in him, this is the game, right? Like you sat for the whole tournament, basically so far you played 15 minutes. He's got to go from the start against Netherlands or Morocco. And I think that oit is the perfect segue to us going into previewing these round of 32 ties. And let's start with the game that feeds into play Canada in the round of 16. It's Morocco, Netherlands. And it's fitting because I think this might be one of, if not the game of the round of 32. The Dutch attack has been flying 10 goals in three games. They scored five on poor Sweden. Their defense didn't look great with a lead when it was tested by a high level team in Japan.
00:12:29
Speaker
Morocco have looked the part, but have maybe lacked a bit of the finishing, particularly against Brazil, where they dominated, particularly the first half of the game. but only drew one, one. This matchup is tantalizing. It is mouthwatering. And there are so many high level players here.
00:12:44
Speaker
Perfectly said. These are two top 10 teams in the world. I think Morocco, as we have said for a while now is just a top 10 team and Netherlands on the back of their group stage display looks like the fifth, sixth, seventh team here. Like think a little bit better than Germany. Honestly, I really believe that.
00:13:01
Speaker
Getting Brian Brawby at the nine instead of Memphis to pie has allowed Komen to play his favorite attacking patterns. This team gets the ball wide. They put it across the box and they have four guys in the box and one of them gets a touch on it. All of them have finished really well.
00:13:20
Speaker
That's the combo for me. Netherlands super take control of the game. Their pattern's really good and they're finishing hot. If Netherlands continues to find success and numbers in the box at the rate they have, Morocco is in trouble because Morocco has not been effective on their chances. They scored early against Brazil. They scored early against Scotland, and they really didn't capitalize that. And the fact that they didn't capitalize that specifically in the Scotland game is why they're here, right? Mm-hmm. Morocco's midfielders have looked super silky. Some of the prettiest stuff we've seen. Saibari is grabbing these headlines. He's looking like the next superstar, right?
00:13:58
Speaker
Diaz is excellent. But the goal the gold tally doesn't add up. It's not enough. And they get three against Haiti in a dead rubber where Haiti is Haiti. It has not been enough. And if you score one goal in this game against the Netherlands, it is not enough. There's a lot of pressure on Saibari. There's a lot of pressure on Alcabi. And Diaz in particular needs to make the Dutch backline pay because as good as Netherlands are, i do think their defense can be had. So it's a very, very question of cat and mouse. Both teams are going to be good on the ball. Both teams are are are going to create chances.
00:14:36
Speaker
I think though Morocco is at a slight disadvantage in trying to keep up with the chance volume that Netherlands create. Maybe it's a bad day of finishing. And at any point, like we could reduce any game's analysis to...
00:14:47
Speaker
Be the better finishing team and you're going to win, right? like But I'm looking at Broby, Gakpo, and then I'm looking at Saibari, Okabi. I'm liking what what what the Netherlands have done so far. And then the last thing I'll say before I give it back to you is that Frankie De Jong has been really good.
00:15:05
Speaker
Graven Burch has been really good. Morocco's midfielders have been good on the ball, but this is the level where can they get bullied by a more athletic center or midfield trio? That's the one thing that I'm worried about for Morocco as well.
00:15:19
Speaker
They won the midfield against Brazil and they weren't tested in the midfield against either Scotland or Haiti. I think Saibari has probably been Morocco's best player, right? I think Atraf Hakimi is their best player. And the two-sided fullbacks here I think is fascinating. Can the Netherlands get fullbacks? Are they allowed to get fullbacks into attack?
00:15:38
Speaker
Can Morocco get fullbacks into attack? These are both teams that I think really want those fullbacks making the play wide. But given what can happen on the other side, I think it's such a fascinating proposition. But yes, I think Saibari has been Morocco's best player. And think what they did against Haiti was really interesting. And I'm very curious to see if they choose to go that path again. If Mohamed Uwabi chooses to play El Kabi up in a more traditional nine role that allows Saibari to maybe drop a bit deeper and be a combo playmaker finisher rather than just a pure finisher. I think that's Morocco's maybe best chance to unlock this.
00:16:13
Speaker
I think so. They need also him to do some defensive running there as well, where he can kind of be effective in more ways. um Look, this is this is also just like a ah game for the goalkeepers too, right? yeah Can Boonoo steal it? He was really good in 2022 in that run.
00:16:33
Speaker
I don't think there's any way where, even if Morocco plays a good game, that Boonoo's not going to have to make a handful of really good saves and trying to frustrate the Netherlands. So, um look...
00:16:43
Speaker
Van Dijk is a really good defender on the ball, but I think you can have him in space too, right? So can Morocco unlock any verticality in this game? They don't really... You have the Saibari goal against Scotland. They don't really play verically vertically. It's much more get the ball wide, overload, and and do silky interchanges. So I still think you could be successful that way, but it's it's a tough game. i I think Morocco is in this game, but I think I'm very, very impressed the way Netherlands played
Pressure Handling: Netherlands' Strategy
00:17:14
Speaker
through their games. And maybe look, that's Japan, Sweden, Tunisia through teams they should have looked good against. But right now, they're it's very ruthless, simple stuff that you're goingnna have to knock them out off of. And I think the Netherlands playing with a lead is kind of that was our biggest question of them, right? that They got pinned back against Sweden a little bit and then they took over the game the second half and Japan gave them trouble. so So what do Netherlands do if and when they get a goal ahead?
00:17:40
Speaker
I think it's going to take three goals to win this game. I think if Morocco win this game, they're probably going to need to do it three, two, or maybe three, one with the third kind of relieving pressure at the end. I don't think you're going to be able to beat Netherlands with less than that in this tournament.
00:17:52
Speaker
Other players I have to mention for Netherlands is Daniel Mullen, Crescente Somerville, who are also been really, really good and part of this high flying attack. And so I think they it's going to be hard to stop.
00:18:04
Speaker
Can you you hurt Dumfries? Can you hurt Van de Ven? Van de Ven's really fast, too, but that's kind of the space where Hakimi would would be getting into. It's finally poised. Yeah. And I think Depp probably leans Netherlands as well, right? They can rotate and put in a bunch of those attackers and they can just run like six attackers at you over the course of this game. It's a fascinating, fascinating game. All right, let's move to the top of the left side of the bracket if you're looking at it from traditional perspective. Germany and Paraguay, it is Julian Nagelswin's stubbornness against Gustavo Alfaro's traveling magic spectacular.
00:18:38
Speaker
The biggest question in this game, Amit, is can we just... The German, four German attackers, Sané, Musiala, Wurtz, and Havertz, plus their two fullbacks, Kimmich and Rahm.
00:18:48
Speaker
Is that enough to break down Paraguay? If it's not, can Dennis Undov unlock Paraguay? And if that's not, where does this game go?
00:18:58
Speaker
It's a great question. Paraguay was really looked off of it against the United States. And if they play like that again, if there's space like that again, a player like Musiala is going to do all that running late runs, dribble with the ball progression that's really going to hurt you.
00:19:18
Speaker
Wurtz, good passer. Sané, I'm not counting on Havertz. I also don't like his movement. But Musiala is the guy I'm thinking about could be really dangerous here against Paraguay. think they need his playmaking. They need Wurtz's passing.
00:19:33
Speaker
But I have a feeling like Alfaro is going to be even more defensive than he was against the United States. I think he just moves his line back. I think in knockouts, what you're seeing from all these teams worse is that it's some variation of one team's on the ball, one team's against the ball. And Paraguay, the team against the ball are going to set it as deep as deep as anyone's going to set it.
00:19:55
Speaker
And so I think you just kind of live in the deepest, deepest block and bus and say, come take pot shots at me and and try not to undo me with movement. And I do think Germany will struggle until Undov gets in this game.
00:20:10
Speaker
Paraguay, I think it's key to see what they can do back the other way because we haven't really seen that from them yet, right? They got boat raced by the U.S. in the first game. And then in the second game, they were on the board within a minute and a half, and that just conditioned their entire approach. They eventually go down to 10 men. It was a survival job for Paraguay against Turkey A.
00:20:27
Speaker
And then against Australia, they just pressed the draw button and never had to do anything. So can Almiron, who's back from suspension, can and CISO, can those guys win two-on-two battles back that way? Because we simply haven't seen it from them yet. And I think if they don't, eventually the flood is just going to be too much and it's going to break down whatever Paraguay have.
00:20:47
Speaker
But again, this is Gustavo Alfaro. Does he have one last magic trick up his sleeve? he might, he might, I think Nogglesman, you know, plays playing with fire. Like he's the type of manager to just like, keep throwing it against the wall and until it sticks. And that's the word that I used earlier. It's stubborn. Yeah. He's a, he's a stubborn manager. And this is exactly the type of brick wall that you could run up into that. You, you know, you try to keep going through it when you need to find a different way. Um,
00:21:17
Speaker
Look, Undov is really good too, but also if you you kind of don't let him turn, you might be able to stop him that way. i do think the depth here for Germany is helpful. Like Amiri was really, really good when he came on. I think that's a piece that they can find.
00:21:32
Speaker
I think Rom helps them a lot, but also like Brown, Anton Brown is good in his own way. So again, you've got two things on that wing. And the other thing you can do is like, you could move Kimmich into the midfield and get him out of this right back. And I think if there's a team you could live against playing not Kimmich there, know,
00:21:51
Speaker
It could be Paraguay. That's the matchup you're trying to soak or write. If it's Rudiger, if it's Ta, I know Slaughterbuck is is now out for the rest of tournament. If it's Kimmich, can you get two on two, two on three? And, you know, Nagelsmann will put eight guys forward. Maybe there's something. Yeah.
00:22:10
Speaker
Look, it's a similar pattern for a lot of these underdog teams. And we haven't seen it so far for the two up front for Paraguay. But they haven' as you described perfectly, they haven't needed it. So there is a there's a window. there's There's a sliver in this game, I think. But it's a tough one to walk. i I do think, like, how do you feel about Germany? I feel like you're kind of down on them. And is it about Paraguay or is it more about Germany in this game?
00:22:38
Speaker
I think it's a bit of both. Like, I just think this is a tough matchup for Germany because I think Paraguay are exactly the low block that's just going to stick to the low block and nothing you can do can drag
Germany vs Paraguay: Deep Defense Challenge
00:22:49
Speaker
them out of that. I think that's difficult for Germany. And again, i think in two games for Germany against good teams, we've seen it for 30 minutes, right? And is 30 minutes enough to beat Paraguay?
00:22:59
Speaker
Probably. Like you get on Davon, you bring on Ayari. Yeah, that's probably enough to do it here. But I think you're kind of playing with fire. A little bit. The two things that you have to to worry about.
00:23:12
Speaker
um One, one way is that Manuel Neuer, if you're in CISO and Almiron, you've got to try to get shots up. Has to be on target. Yeah, just got to have have to be on target, have to test him. And also sometimes sweeper keeper Manuel is also out there too. Like if you beat your defender...
00:23:27
Speaker
See if you can get a mistake that way. But the one thing that it will be tough for Paraguay in this game, no matter how good the block is, is set piece defending. And another rule of knockout rounds, you could just, we could just come out here and every game would go, let's look at the set pieces. um I think Paraguay are not inherently bad, but this is where, you know, Kimmich or Wurtz plus the big guys in the back, when they get up there, that is a tough, tough mark. And Paraguay's Bruisers are good bruisers, but Nagelsmann's got good set piece routines, also free kicks. You could see Kimmich deliver one, where it's here too. And so that's the one area where if all else fails for Germany, right, you could just kind of resort to that as being an an outlet to get one in. Even if it takes 60, 70, 80 minutes, it's not comfortable. To me, that's the way this game looks. Like I'm with you. It's not going to be easy, but I, you know,
00:24:22
Speaker
You know, you you have multiple ways to get there. And one of those ways I think will hurt. And I think there's a level of movement on the German set pieces that these Paraguayton defenders are maybe not accustomed to. and that could really be something. Diego Gomez, not in this game for Paraguay. He's suspended for yellow card accumulation. That's a big blow in the midfield. If there were any sort of controlling and running from Paraguay, he's not going to be able to contribute to it.
00:24:44
Speaker
The winner of this game, Amit, will play the winner of France and Sweden. There's great attacking talent here, but France have more of it, and they're also significantly better defensively. Mbappe and Dembele have scored goals for fun for France so far for each. Sweden have scored, but they haven't really defended.
00:25:01
Speaker
Is there any reason at all why we should buy Sweden outscoring France over 90 minutes and pulling off a stunner? Not really.
France vs Sweden: Talent vs Counter-Attack
00:25:10
Speaker
The one thing you could say is Sweden's going to defend. They're going to get as deep as possible. They're going to counter. And the players you're looking at to counter are Viktor Gakerez and Anthony Alango. And they're very good players on the counter. Gakerez can hold up the ball. He can press and he can get into Upamakano. That's one matchup you're circling.
00:25:30
Speaker
Can Giacarez get a mistake on Uba Meccano? The other matchup you're circling is Alanga versus France's left back. If that's Teo Hernandez, I really, really want to see that one-on-one. And you're just saying, look, we'll defend for 10, 20 minutes at a time and we'll get a one-on-one and we'll score it.
00:25:46
Speaker
The issue is that 10, 20 minutes at a time is not trivial. And the way France have been playing, it's especially, yeah, he Austin goes one, two, three. There's there's three 30-minute blocks you've got to survive. And so, look,
00:25:59
Speaker
The way France have looked so far, has not been Dechamp suffer ball. It has just been, our guys are so much better than yours. And at some point, I think France will get back to suffer ball when it push comes to shove. And they're still good at that game.
00:26:15
Speaker
Sweden's defense is just not the level. They've been run ragged by the Netherlands, who were a good team. France could just do their version of that right like they could they could just have a Lise cross it to three guys at the back post and it's hard to imagine i don't know like somewhere there's going to be some shocks in here I think someone big someone in the top five is going to go out maybe maybe two teams but this one don't think so And when in doubt for France, they can always just have somebody uncork a left-footed strike, right? They need half a space, right? That's what Dembele showed the other day against Torrey. They need half a space. And at some point, they're going to get half a space because the Swedish defense is probably going give them like one and a half spaces, right? It's not going to be those type of margins. It's just on the evidence of what we've seen, it's really hard to expect France to be controlled in this game. And if they're not, I just don't think Sweden can score more than they can.
00:27:15
Speaker
Absolutely not. And look, at some point, you can't keep scoring every 25 yard left foot, curl or banger. At some point, the shots don't go in. And then it's you have to, you know, work extra hard. At some point, the XG, they'll under they've been underperforming it or they've been overperforming quite a bit. At some point, they're going to underperform it.
00:27:33
Speaker
But even then, right, they could put up four XG and get one and you'd still be done. Right. So like that's just where the the math is hard. Yeah. Another all European matchup on this side of the bracket, Spain and Austria amid Austria team that you have bigged up at other points in this cycle.
Austria's Defensive Strategy against Spain
00:27:50
Speaker
I won't say that you've big them up at this tournament, Spain, a team that you have pointed out the weaknesses Austria here because of a miracle. Sasa Kologic goal at the end of the group stage to oust Iran and Can they pull out another miracle against Spain? What's going to be the approach from Austria?
00:28:10
Speaker
Spain haven't really hit on all cylinders, right? They they they smashed Saudi Arabia, but that was sandwiched by dull nil-nil game against Cape Verde and a one-nil game against Uruguay where they kind of just sat back and let Uruguay implode.
00:28:23
Speaker
i don't think they're going to be able to do that against Austria. Nico Williams got hurt again for Spain because of the Nicolas de la Cruz challenge. Lamine Yamal is probably going to play 90 minutes. I think there's enough questions here to pique my interest, but I don't know that I trust that Austria is the team to take advantage of it.
00:28:41
Speaker
Probably not. And when you, when I was dreaming about this game a month ago, I was thinking Austria might be able to play a red bully game and press them into difficulty on the field. And having seen three games of Austria, i don't think they should try that. I do not think they should press Spain at all. Um,
00:29:01
Speaker
looks what happened against Argentina. They play fine in that game. And in one moment off a throw in, they're caught out and they're scored on by Messi and one four on six. Well, at this level, you can't have one moment of an odd number against a team this good. So the answer for Austria to me is take the role of the bunker team, park the bus, like, and I would tell anyone to do this against Spain, but I think Austria, you you you park this bus as bad as you can and make Spain show you that they can beat you because Spain have gotten got in this game multiple times in the World Cup. In fact, every time since 2010, they have been got in this game. Russia also has got them in this game, right? So...
00:29:46
Speaker
it doesn't have to be austria is all like the team to do it it just has to be the bus anyone driving the bus can do it today and do i think it'll work no but no i think spain will find something but spain are not sharp right now missing nico williams you're you're a bit safer on that side you don't play oliva ken danso danso and um Oh man, I should have this. All these defenders guys coming in. Can they cope with what Spain is throwing at them?
00:30:17
Speaker
Exactly. And the answer might be yes, right? If you don't give space to Ogerthal to run a channel, if you don't give Lamin-Yamal space, then you kind of work them into the shell. And look, Spain are built to play the passing possession shell.
00:30:34
Speaker
But if you you send help, you double every time on the wing, and then you recover. Your midfield three has to make their bones showing, helping your wing, your...
00:30:46
Speaker
your youre attacking wide midfielders have to come back and track Kukurea. You have to track the overlap for Yamal, whether that's Koundé, but Koundé doesn't want to get that high. If you do all those things, you get 10 behind and you keep up, you don't let them you know get beat you on the dribble,
00:31:04
Speaker
Yes, he he might beat the double. You show a second. You show a third, right? You make it really hard on Lamin-Yemal. We've seen Barca be slowed by this too. like You could do it. It's not pretty, but you park this bus as hard as you can, and then you try to hit long balls the other way.
00:31:20
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's my it yeah that's my concern for Austria is, okay, yeah, can they pull off pull off a poor man's parked bus? Yeah, I think they can. they're not i don't think they're naive enough to try and chase this game in the midfield because, again, we we know that that means probably immediate death here.
00:31:34
Speaker
But are we? really trusting that like some combination of Marco Arnautovic of Sabitzer of Schmid of Gregorich of of a big saw like I don't think those guys can do nearly enough on the long ball knockdown run on game plan that Austria probably need I think at some point right like yes Spain got got if you will by Cape Verde but they still created 2xg and one of those is probably going in the back of the net over the span of 120 minutes ago Yeah, probably. it's It's not a good look for Austria. Listen, maybe Kolodzic gives you a knockdown. Maybe Marko Arnautovic has a moment. Probably not has a moment, but maybe one ball comes to Sabitzer on the counter. It's pretty dicey. I think Austria have really not impressed the three games. Look, it was 3-3 against Algeria, and Algeria on the ball are good. Spain are a level better, but I just think Spain are pretty, pretty vulnerable. right now. So I want to see it. I want I will change my opinion. If I see Roger Paget and Lamine, you're all revved this thing up, but they have not done that so far. And maybe they won't have to in this game, but I think there's scenarios where you could frustrate this Spain team more than you could have two years ago to me is the big difference. Yeah.
00:32:47
Speaker
Jeremy Pino and Nico Williams out for Spain. Those are two fewer attacking options, right? So when they left, when they maybe looks to go to his bench, he's got a couple of less guys to look at.
00:32:57
Speaker
Could this be a situation where like they counter the the plan K of, of Sasa Kologic and they say, Borja Iglesias get on there for 10 minutes and do something. I don't know. Maybe we'll see. I think I'm backing Spain here just because I don't think Austria have it. Like this defense just got scored on three times by an Algeria team that wasn't actively really trying to score. Right? Like, I think that's probably what we're working with. But yeah, let's see it. The other matchup in this quadrant of it is really, really good because it's fairly similar in its buildup.
Portugal vs Croatia: Ronaldo's Role
00:33:25
Speaker
It's Portugal, Croatia.
00:33:26
Speaker
And yes, Portugal should on talent and on players probably run an old, experienced, derogatory sense Croatia team off the pitch.
00:33:37
Speaker
But they probably won't because their nine is going to be Cristiano Ronaldo and nobody's told them to get off the pitch yet. And so that's one less guy that they have. there's There's something brewing here.
00:33:49
Speaker
i'm i got a DEFCON 3 on Spain versus Austria. Maybe DEFCON 4. my DEFCON's up to two for for Croatia and Portugal and DEFCON is the reverse order, right? Yeah. um I'm a little worried here for Portugal. Croatia or Vlatko Dalic just like lives for this game.
00:34:10
Speaker
Yes, Portugal should wax them off the field, but like as long as Ronaldo is on the field at this point, You cannot overstate enough. It is 10 on a level. 10 on 11. It just is. Uzbekistan is his level.
00:34:25
Speaker
And I don't think the Croatian center backs are winning any awards anytime soon. But like you bunker this too, and you... make them say you can have the ball anywhere you want except in the ninth spot and he won't get it he won't get it and so could someone else beat them yes could bruno fernandch hit a shot from distance yes could you get a set piece someone else heads it yes i think The wingers for Portugal have also been really underwhelming. Pedro Neto has not been good. Joao Felix has not been good. And then you're starting to look at three guys are kind of misfiring. Yeah, we know the midfield is the best in the world, but if they're not getting help from the players in front of them, it's all a bit stale. So I think Croatia can survive in this game.
00:35:10
Speaker
It's a struggle for them to like last over 120 minutes from what we've seen. The one thing is if I was projecting a team to play Portugal, I would like a bit more running. like I just worry about Modric and Kovacevic hanging with Vitinha, Joel Neves, and Ruben Neves. That's my one worry.
00:35:28
Speaker
But if you can protect your fullbacks a little bit, I think you can hang. Yeah. And Croatia were really opportunistic against England, right? Like they found their moments and and were able to go forward. And I think a player like Baturina could be huge there. And look, you've got Ivan Parasic in his shooter's sleeve marauding forward from a fullback position. Like there's something that could be had there if they choose their moments intelligently, which Croatia generally do.
00:35:54
Speaker
They're very... That's the thing they're good at It's not necessarily the best defenders, but they just know how to catch you asleep at the the right moments. And look, Nuno Mendes is great. I think that's a tough matchup on Croatia's right side. But the left-hand side, that's where Joel Cancelo is. And he is basically an extra winger playing at ah right fullback. Maybe...
00:36:13
Speaker
Bobby Martinez has thought about this and he's going to protect it somehow. But if Concello is on the field, you want Batarino to go find him. You want Parasic to go find him, especially if that's Petro Neto.
00:36:24
Speaker
you can You can overload on that side. And look, Budimir, he's not an excellent striker, but I think it's not like Vega and Diaz are excellent, excellent center backs. There's something there. And the other thing, you know, that could help Croatia in this game just survive and...
00:36:39
Speaker
get lucky, Dominic Lavakovich. Yep. Super, super X factor. That is the one thing that also could help Croatia survive in this game. I don't, you know, like I'm making the case. I'm trying to make the case for every underdog in the game, the way I'm approaching it. Like, how would you attack this game? um To me, it's not about Croatia. It's about Portugal in this one.
00:37:03
Speaker
Portugal have the horses, right? Like there are players here. You you look at Rafael Leão, Conceição, Gonzalo Guedes, Ramez. Okay, everybody not Ronaldo basically is what I'm saying here. Like the horses are there for Portugal, but are you really trusting that those are the guys who are going to get run when when push comes to shove in this game? And I don't know, maybe Roberto Martinez does have that pivot and he's been saving it because he knows he doesn't want to play that card too early and mess with whatever...
00:37:28
Speaker
fragile egos in the dressing room he's working with. But at some point you got to think he's putting his cards on the table and he's going to play those guys. You would hope if if push comes to shove.
00:37:39
Speaker
To me, the the big thing, obviously, you know, Luka Modric needs to do some wizardry, but every game kind of comes up to, can your fullbacks hold up against the other team's really good wingers? That's Gavardio, that's Stanisic. They've been good players for Koetia so far, so I also think they can survive there.
00:37:58
Speaker
Let's see. Let's see if Koetia can do it. Last quadrant on this side of the bracket, the U.S. will take on Bosnia and Herzegovina. mean, Bosnia beat Italy in a one-off game. I think the U.S. are probably better than Italy. They are the very clear favorites in this game. They are more athletic. They are better on the ball. They have better finishers. How do they avoid having a surprise sprung on them from the poker man himself, Sergei Barbaraz?
00:38:24
Speaker
but You just can't underestimate them mentally because of Bosnia's ability to hang around. And I think I know the Switzerland result ends up lopsided for one. But if you look at 80 minutes of that game, that to me is what this game will look like. You have to commit a lot to do stuff on them because they're just going to sit really far back. And even though they're not super athletic, they don't really take any chances with the ball.
00:38:48
Speaker
And they're just trying to be opportunistic at working it up the field. You've got to watch three guys. You've got to watch Bojek Turevic and Alebegovic. I know i butchered the first name there, but those are the two wingers. They're really tricky on the ball. They like to cut into half spaces. They can dribble, also go by line. They can shoot.
00:39:06
Speaker
You absolutely have to watch the shots from distance. This is a game where if it's Matt Freeze, probably going to be Matt Freeze, don't get got on a shot from distance. That's what Bosnia are going to try to do. And listen, set piece, not set piece. You can't lose...
00:39:20
Speaker
Edin Dzeko or Demirovic. You can't lose a striker. Bosnia are not dynamic, but their strikers will move and find space in the box if you're not tracking them. I think if you do that, and I think if you even you you keep the back five, I think if you handled the wingers, there is nothing else here that can hurt you.
00:39:40
Speaker
Bosnia just cannot hurt you. It was so labored for them even to to kind of create chances consistently against Qatar. The first goal was a shot from distance. That's what they're going for. read the scouting report, take away the shots from distance, and there's not a lot here. And then the game turns into a difficult exercise in its own right in terms of breaking down the, you know, the boss of Bosnia's. But you can work with that. The U.S. has been good against blocks in this tournament so far, right? They made Paraguay's look silly and they scored early against Australia. I think they're going to look to score early again in this game. Just come out guns blazing 15 minutes and just put Sad Kolasinac in jail. And like, if they do that, eventually this is going to go right.
00:40:21
Speaker
They've got the rest too. They earned that yeah getting to rest all their players against Turkey. And this is where, you know, who looked really, really good in game one was Christian Pulisic. And this is a game for him to burn Malic and Dedic on that side. And to your point, Dest,
00:40:39
Speaker
Weston McKinney, Malik Tillman need to get on that side and just get a lot of bodies on Klaus Snatch, make him run backwards. And I think you will get a bunch of cutbacks the other way to the box for other players to get shots. That's where the chances are going to come. And the other thing U.S. has that worked against Australia that should work here too, set pieces for sure, I think you have to use as well.
00:41:02
Speaker
And the late runners, right? Tillman McKinney has late runners. Balogun has shown his ability to be both an early and a late runner for the U.S. Just continually flood the box and put Bosnia in tough situations trying to defend balls coming from angles. And and eventually you feel like this is going to work and and it might work a lot.
00:41:21
Speaker
Yeah, just it's ah it's a work rate game for the United States. like Yeah, you might not score your first three or four chances. You might have a tough day at the office, but if you you know if you run those channels and you move in the box, you're going to get chances. If you get if you you settle and you just say, I don't like this block in front of me, I'm going to pass around it, pass around it, you're not going to do anything. Yeah.
US Tactics against Bosnia's Defense
00:41:44
Speaker
You can't move all game, but like you said, first 15 minutes, can you the end of the half, before the hydration break, in the second half, you're really circling those those points to find something. And the speed that the U.S. has played with so far, particularly when they've had their first choice, 11, I think it's going to be really hard for Bosnia to cope with. it And we saw it against Parway. The way that Balogun Pulisic and McKinney and and Adams and whoever it was were pinging the ball around, Bosnia just aren't going to be able to keep up with that and eventually that's going to lead to open spots you're going two on ones you're going to get one on o's and unless nicole uh vlasic the the boss i should say the bosnian keeper unless he's on the day of days this is going to end up in the background i think this might be a pretty easy win for the states
00:42:27
Speaker
Talked about Switzerland, Bosnia. Bosnia hung well in that game, but the last 10 minutes, I know there's a red card, but Bosnia are ragged too. So like you just keep running at them. Like you said, be sharp. And it's hard to imagine this one being being super competitive, right? Watch the tape on Monzambi, right? Like that's the guy that you should be trying to emulate in this game because he had tons and tons of success here. The other game in this quadrant is also very intriguing i it because we have Belgium and Senegal.
00:42:53
Speaker
And Senegal, I know, came through their group in third place and Belgium topped their group. But one of these teams is much more athletic than the other. And both of these teams have had finishing problems at points in this tournament. But I think Senegal have maybe figured that out more than Belgium has. And this is the highest level opposition that Belgium have faced.
00:43:13
Speaker
Yeah, the truth of this game is that Senegal is straight up better than Belgium right now. They just are. They're more athletic at 11 spots on the field. I mean, you're going to count the best guys on the field. I'll give Belgium Courtois.
00:43:28
Speaker
I'll give him De Bruyne. And that's generous. I think the next like six, seven best players in this game are on Senegal. But Senegal midfield three is really good. Ismail Sar is playing really well. Sadio Mane is still solid. And Baye has been a revelation.
00:43:45
Speaker
And then the next best player might be Pop Gaye, the second Gaye in the midfield for Senegal. Right. And then. Oh, sorry, sorry. To anyone listening, I forgot Jeremy Doku. Jeremy Doku is at the top. He's the best player on the field for Belgium. But outside of him, the next like so eight players for Senegal are better. And so to me, it's ah it's a Doku has to bail Belgium out and be ruthless if Senegal leaves space. I think this game is going to end up Senegal having the ball, forcing Belgium on their back line, forcing them to defend because Senegal's midfield just revs you into an engine. The issue for Senegal is finishing the chances that happen from this. And that is where Belgium could be more ruthless.
00:44:30
Speaker
Think about the way the United States played Belgium in that 5-2 win for them in a friendly. It's hard game to contextualize a friendly, but if you think back to that, the United States totally overwhelmed them, didn't finish their chance in the first half. Then things opened up on the counter and Belgium hurt them.
00:44:45
Speaker
That's how Senegal could get got if they spend a lot of energy and don't score. But also Belgium's attack has been pretty uninspiring. I know they score five on New Zealand, but Senegal are much more athletic. How is Belgium scoring this game ah unless Doku goes crazy?
00:45:03
Speaker
And I think I, for what I circle in this game, and I think finishing is probably the first thing that I circle. And the second thing I probably circle is the midfield, because I think that the two gays in the Senegal midfield, I think Kamara, I think those Senegal midfielders can just dominate and they can just run and they can just be forward and they can put Belgium on the back foot. And I think, you know, if it's Mechelen and Goy, whatever combination Belgium are running out in defense, whatever four guys they have out there,
00:45:31
Speaker
I don't think they can cope with consistent runs being made at them like this. And eventually they're going to get turned around and input, put in bad position. Mechelay and Goy have been bad. Mooney is slow too. And that's where Embai could, or Mane could have a lot of joy too. Like Belgium is favored in this game.
00:45:49
Speaker
ah The books have it as Belgium minus one 70. And I am, Senegal lost to France, right? And they also lose to Norway. That game against Norway is such a tricky game. Senegal slip up. And that's the other thing I'm just penciling here from Senegal is we're not the team that shipped those goals. Kaladu Kalavali is out.
00:46:09
Speaker
Edouard Mendy is out. And... We're also not starting Nico Jackson. And if we do don't do those three things, we fixed all of our problems. It's not as simple. Like, Senegal might not be fixed. But if they do those three things, I just think that 11 on the field is going to kind of kick Belgium's butt.
00:46:28
Speaker
and Yeah, I think it comes down to that for me. And you're just really looking at Ismail Sar, Sadio Mane. Is there an Ilman and Dai moment here? right Is it Kamara? Is it whatever the attack is for Senegal?
00:46:42
Speaker
They have to be ruthless. And they have to take chances because chances are going to come. And I don't know that Belgium can be ruthless back the other way. Like, are they going to put Romelu Lukaku on in this game? Could that be something they're looking for? Trossard was really good against New Zealand, but there's just so much more athleticism on the pitch here than there was in that game.
00:46:59
Speaker
Yeah, and look, when Belgium have the ball, when they beat your press, they're going to go Doku and he's going to go one-on-one and he's going to look for the cutback to to someone or he's going to come in and shoot.
Senegal vs Belgium: Athleticism and Tactics
00:47:09
Speaker
So it's a big game for for Senegal on that side. Sack is the center back there. Diada was the right back. They've got other guys they can throw in that role.
00:47:17
Speaker
That's where you've got to help. But the other thing is the midfielder can go help. Go double. Double Jeremy Doku at all times. Do not give that man space. And then you should be in pretty good shape. Look,
00:47:29
Speaker
I understand why Belgium is favored. This game could, you know, big Rom could have a moment. De Bruyne could have a moment. He hasn't really had super big moment, but you also look at the subs too. And I like that for Senegal as well. Jackson is a sub actually helps.
00:47:43
Speaker
I think as a plan B and the subs we've seen for Benegal sent for Belgium have been Luca Bacchio and Vonneken and they haven't done anything. I like that you're inventing new countries here. Betagal, that sounds like a very interesting West African nation that's having some trouble in their CAF qualifying group. ah Sign me up, sign me up. All right, you want you want to switch to to the other side of the bracket? We've done one side, it's time to get to the other side here?
00:48:08
Speaker
Yeah, well that's a lot of games. This is what you're talking about. I'm getting i'm having fun on the chessboard. All right, it's
Brazil vs Japan: Individual vs Collective Strength
00:48:14
Speaker
the quadrant of death. Brazil, Japan, Norway, Ivory Coast. ah brazil Brazil, Japan is right up there with Netherlands, Morocco for one of the games of this round of 32. Brazil have got some positive momentum from how they finished the group stage.
00:48:27
Speaker
They also finished the group stage against Haiti and Scotland, right? Japan are slick. They are tricky. They can play very intricate passing movements. They maybe lack the top-end talent that Brazil have, but this is a very good matchup of...
00:48:42
Speaker
one team's collective strength in Japan against one team's individual ability in in Brazil. And I, for one, am fascinated to see it tomorrow. It's a really good matchup, exactly as you described. And Brazil have simplified things by unleashing Vinny, Cunha, and Ryan as runners in verticality and defending with everyone behind them and just preying on mistakes. They sit against the ball. They turn you over. They go.
00:49:10
Speaker
even if you sit back against them, then Vinny just starts to work one on one. And then they do all these nice little passing movements. And they can shoot from distance, too. And so the game for Japan is limiting transition, controlling the game with the ball, using possession, like to make Brazil chase and, you know, makes Brazil's press look bad.
00:49:32
Speaker
and Then they have to find a goal. That is the hard part. I think they could do really well in a clash of styles here to slow down Brazil. But the scoring might be tough when the back line is Gabriel and Marquinhos.
00:49:47
Speaker
And I think this game could look a lot like what we saw for Brazil against Morocco, right? like I think Japan can control the ball in this game. I think they have the midfield that can do that. I think they can make Brazil chase. And if they make Brazil chase, maybe they can get those guys into poor position. But yeah, this is huge for Diza Maeda.
00:50:07
Speaker
It's huge for Ueda. The two Japan attacking players, they have to be clinical with the chances they create because might see a lot of the ball. They might not see a lot of grade A chances. And you know that on the other side,
00:50:18
Speaker
Vinicius Jr. and Cunha, they're firing all cylinders at this point. And so if they see grade A chances, they're probably going to convert them. But how Brazil get those is, I think, another fascinating storyline it's going to be tough for the Japanese backline because Brazil don't really need progression to like get there. They're just going to launch balls. And so it's a ah really big game for Tanaguchi, Watanabe and Ito to try to, to hold up with five in the back. And I think the wingbacks have to come back and do a lot of work like Ritzo, Doan and Nakamura.
00:50:49
Speaker
It's, it's going to be all hands on deck at points for Japan. And so defending will be hard, but there's just a ah path here. And, you could try to pick on the fullbacks of Brazil. You could try to pick on Paquita and Casemiro and just use the ball. And,
00:51:05
Speaker
I think there's just a little bit of complacency that has seeped back into the Brazil side. I think they're having a bit too much fun for beating Scotland and Haiti. And that might just be vibes. Like, to be fair, um they have really answered the challenge really well after kind of a slow opening half against Morocco to finish top of this group. And they avoid the Netherlands. It's like it's all been going well for them. But...
00:51:28
Speaker
Japan seems like a team that's a bad matchup for them. And I just think there's a handful of ways in which it could be a good matchup for Japan. We haven't seen it yet from Brazil, but set pieces, right? It's something we talked about a lot with this team coming in into the tournament. They haven't been super effective on them so far, but I think that's really a spot in this game where they could have success and Japan have to be aware of Not only are they kind of having some weaknesses at center back physically, the other big issue for Japan in this game to pull this off is Zion Suzuki has been good, but he's also made some mistakes and it's a tough day against the attackers and set pieces. He really has to command his area and Allison is lurking. Brazil also kind of can just call on him to be an excellent, excellent shot stopper. So...
00:52:12
Speaker
I think the cards are stacked against Japan. Look, I'm trying to dream dream it up. Brazil should be fine in this game. I do think this team is built for knockout soccer to just be really ugly. So even if this game might look like Japan play really, really well, they have a really good game and Brazil just slog 1-0 in an impressive way. I don't mean that like a negative way. Like that to me is the fear for this game. I don't think Brazil has to play well to win.
00:52:36
Speaker
And Bruno Gamma Rice is looming, right? He's a guy we haven't talked a lot about in this preview, but he's an absolute danger man for Brazil. And those combinations between him, Cunha, Benicius, and Haian, that's what Brazil is looking to unlock here in this game.
00:52:50
Speaker
Yeah, the midfield of Japan might be able to pick on the other guys, but he could like single-handedly bust all of it with his his overall game. The other matchup in this quadrant, Norway-Ivory Coast. This is just an incredible battle because Norway's weakness is their defense in space and under pressure. Ivory Coast have have looked very complete in three phases, but they they were broken down by elite striker movement from Denis Undov.
00:53:16
Speaker
Well, you know who who's on the other side now? It's not Denis Undov. It's Erling Haaland, maybe the best striker mover in this entire tournament. This game is so, so good. I cannot wait to watch it. This is awesome. This is like the hipster, not even, it's not hipster anymore, but this is like the dark horse battle of the tournament.
00:53:36
Speaker
Super, super fun. Norway have really, really impressed. I come away feeling better about their level after three games. ah Yeah, they wrestled against France. That would have been helpful, but...
00:53:47
Speaker
They're playing really well off Holland. And to me, that's where this starts. Holland, yeah, you have to defend two on one. You have to be careful not to allow space. But to stop him, the ball can't get to him because when the ball gets to him, it's over. So they need to take away everyone else. They need to take away Odegaard. They need to take away Noosa and they need to take away Soarlath.
00:54:07
Speaker
The good news is Ivory Coast has the back seven to stop those guys. It might mean they're playing a very defensive game, but we saw Ivory Coast be very comfortable at playing this defensive game.
Norway vs Ivory Coast: Tactical Challenges
00:54:20
Speaker
So while Ivory Coast was really fun against Germany on the counter, I don't think this is that kind of game. I don't think Norway is going to have the ball a lot against them. I think this is going to be two teams that respecting the other teams are going to turn this very defensive and grimy and try to eliminate space for the danger men.
00:54:38
Speaker
On one side, it's Holland. On the other side, it's Diamande. And that's the one part where obviously he's the first thing you're circling for every coast. Can he do damage against that Norway back line? They are not good defenders. We saw that when they went up against Senegal, Senegal was able to have a lot of joy. Mane was really good in that game on the Senegal left.
00:54:58
Speaker
That's where Diamande is. And the the big X factor for me, Pepe for, for Ivory coast, he should get one or two chances. If he comes in cutting across on a Diamande ball, they need him or Cassandre Bonnie, but probably him to be ruthless. And i think Ivory coast has the talent, the engine to to take this game, but they might not have the finishing. And, you know,
00:55:24
Speaker
Talk about finishing. What's on the other side? So this is like, ah again, it's the Jaws analogy. It's just that danger is ever looming. It is terrifying. It's threatening. So you have to kill it. You have to be ruthless. And you cannot go down multiple goals and allow Norway to kind of run back at you in this space as you overcommit. I think that's kind of where Senegal got caught out. But I don't think it's it's crazy of me to suggest that if Senegal were able to hold their own for points against Norway, Ivory Coast are maybe even better equipped to do that than Senegal were. Like, I think I like the Ivory Coast attacking talent better than I do the Senegal attacking talent, particularly the setup that they had in that Norway game. And there can be a lot of joy for these guys against this Norway backline.
00:56:06
Speaker
There should be. Ryerson is maybe the best defender, but that's where Diamande should have a lot of joy. Even Pepe could dribble and go at Moeller-Wolf on the other side. And then the center backs, I think, are the weakest spot. So maybe it's not as much of ah a winger attacking game.
00:56:23
Speaker
If you have time... Can Christoulai dribble? Can Kessie, he's going to have a big day, I think, trying to stop Odegaard, but can he dribble? And can you play a direct ball to Bonnie or Gassand and then have that knockdown go to Pepe or Diamande? That wrinkle could really help. That's what helped Senegal against Norway. You've...
00:56:44
Speaker
It's going to be an ugly, grimy game. I don't think chance are going to be easy to come by. If they are, that favors Norway. So I think this is going to look like um really, really deliberate. And if you're Ivory Coast, you've got to take their legs away. You've got to turn this into calf knockouts where Ivory Coast were excellent two years ago. And yes, they went down to Egypt and lost. That's the one thing that can't get got. So if you're Ivory Coast, you might I might say 30 minutes. My only goal is not to give up a goal.
00:57:11
Speaker
I'm playing very, very defensively for 30 minutes, and I'm just going to run Norway as hard as I can. I want to see their fitness over 120. I think I could beat them. I think my subs can beat them. I've got a dinger. I've got a mod.
00:57:23
Speaker
I don't like what Norway subs are outside of Oscar Bob. And I think the depth here could be big for Ivory Coast. And that's what you said, controlled environment in Dallas. So that probably helps Norway that this isn't a hot, muggy Northeast type game.
00:57:36
Speaker
but But I think there's there's room for Ivory Coast to to take advantage of that. And yeah, the the depth is there. And this is the biggest test Norway have had in this cycle. This the biggest test they've had a long time, right? It had been so long since they'd made a major tournament. All right, they passed the test against Senegal.
00:57:53
Speaker
They didn't even take the test against France. All right, it's knockout round football. You haven't had a taste of this in ah in generations. How do you respond? And some of that falls on Holland. Like, Ivory Coast can put four guys on him. Ivory Coast can have the perfect game plan. You can't game plan for this guy anymore. Like, there's going to be a handful of moments in this game where he's even one-on-two or one-on-one, and you just, like, respectfully, you just have to pray he doesn't do it. And he could also come up with, like...
00:58:24
Speaker
A shot from distance, a bike, like a towering header on a set piece. Norway's good on set pieces because of him and their center backs. Sometimes can can the best player on the field win you the game? And that could be Holland's moment.
00:58:38
Speaker
It's going to be so good. Can't wait to see it. Moving down one quadrant, we have England, DR Congo, and we also have Mexico, Ecuador. Let's start for Mexico. So El Trees, perfect world cup now comes back to the Azteca. They emit our two home wins away from the promised land of the quarterfinals. But I think Ecuador is a nasty, nasty matchup here for Mexico. They're playing with belief after what they're able to do against Germany. They won't be affected by what is maybe Mexico's biggest home advantage, which is the altitude. And I think if we're looking at who has the better players in this game, the answer might be Ecuador. and They might just be able to control and tilt. And then it comes back as it always seems to do to finish it.
00:59:19
Speaker
That's the one weakness for for Ecuador is that Ener Valencia hasn't been effective. Look, they had more joy with him not on the field. um And Raleigh Menez is, I think, the better striker ah out of the the two in this game. And that's where Mexico can win. But the issue for Mexico is that they have been built to play this super low event, like super cautious style. They're going to keep seven or eight back and really not attack.
00:59:45
Speaker
Ecuador will just play that game with them. And if it turns into a game of half chances, um it could be set PC, but Ecuador could just kind of like tug of war to 55, 60% game control. and And the player here is Moises Caicedo, who has just bossed it in the midfield. And look, Mexico's midfield has been good against the three teams they've played.
01:00:10
Speaker
I think Ecuador are going to have... total field control, not total, but field control, and their center backs too. Pacho and Ordonez have been really, really good. So I know the attack for Ecuador hasn't been great, but I think they should kind of choke Mexico out of this game and then just try to get some crosses, get some shots from distance.
01:00:32
Speaker
Big game for Plata. I think he's got to be the guy to find something. And and maybe Valencia is due for one, right? Could he could yeah find something here? Yeah. I think on the Mexico side of it, you mentioned Raul Jimenez. He's obviously big. I think Julian Quinones is going to be massive here yeah because I think he is maybe the most vertical threat for Mexico and he's what they're going to be trying to do to get back the other way. Or could it be something like Gilberto Mora off the bench, providing some of that verticality and some of that one-on-one win that Mexico might need to have at some point in this game, especially They're not going to be able, where they were successful in the group stage is when their opposition made mistakes, they pounced, right? That was kind of the thing that was threaded through everything they did in the group stage. I don't know that Ecuador are going to make those mistakes. I think Mexico are make some of their luck. And you look at who are the players who could do that. I think Quinones, I think Moore, and obviously Jimenez, those are the guys that they're going to need.
01:01:27
Speaker
they They really need that. And maybe Gutierrez too. And, you know, Romo has been really excellent for them as well. They they might need something. The fullbacks for Mexico have been excellent as well. It's a tough game though, because I'm not sure Aguirre is going to let them go forward like he did in the last four. um Look, goalkeepers too. Is Mexico getting a super spectacular goalkeeper performance? They've kind of had one against Czechia. So that's the other thing that could that could help them out here.
01:01:57
Speaker
It's unfortunate that it looks like the path was so good and now Ecuador is the team here. This profile is really, really poorly. This also just could be a game for pens. Yeah, it just it feels like these teams are very evenly matched. They're both trying to do the same thing. it kind of circles back to how we started the show with South Africa, Canada, right? Moment of quality.
01:02:16
Speaker
Where is it going to come from? Who's going to have it? Who's going to take advantage of it? That could be the difference here. England and DR Congo in Atlanta. We've seen a fairly tepid England struggle with the low block at this tournament, both from Ghana and for a large part of the match against Panama. Well, mean, here's another low block for them to try and figure out, and it might be one of the best low blocks that they're going to see.
01:02:37
Speaker
They played their dream lineup against Panama and nothing really changed. DR Congo know this game. They've played this game. They already got a point from this game against Portugal in the group stage.
01:02:50
Speaker
How do you see it? It's a harder version of England-Ghana, I think, for from England's perspective. Dear Congo is a better block, like you said. and The thing is, Dear Congo is just so difficult and to to break down.
01:03:06
Speaker
But can they find anything to buy them time against England? Because that 90, 120 minutes is a hard thing to ask. And i do think Wisa, who's finding his form...
01:03:18
Speaker
is looking at those center backs and he's like, he and Kansa, I play against those guys. I think I can do something against those guys. So it's a big game for him ah to to, to try to hold up and find transition.
01:03:31
Speaker
And can you get England to just feel uncomfortable 15 minutes at a time. That's kind of the way it goes. And the more you frustrate them, that's what worked for Ghana. And you're trying to mentally get under their skin.
01:03:44
Speaker
I think for, for England, like i think Tuchel is going to keep doing what he does. I don't think he's going to commit extra guys in the tack. I think he's going to ask Rashford to shoot from distance. He's going to see if Saka is up for a high volume chance creation game. He hasn't been so far. And if he's not, then it's just kind of Jude run around and do something. And I think it's harder to attack the DR Congo outside backs. Like Juan Basaka has been pretty good, but that's the guy you're saying, Jude and Marcus Rashford, go over there and put that guy in in in jail for for as long as you can. And then look, Harry Kane,
01:04:23
Speaker
he he hasn't been outstanding, but he's been what he is. He just has those little moments of movement when you get a good cross and he gets loose. And so the one game he didn't do that, it was the Ghana game, but otherwise he genuinely England do just enough. So look, I can tell you at 80 minutes, the XG will probably be like 1.3 to like 0.4, whether or not like England have scored that chance. I don't know. um But if it's zero on the scoreboard, yeah, you can believe. I think I'm interested to see what it looks like if England really have to go for it because we haven't seen that from them. Like what are the buttons that they're actually pressing if they're put in a difficult situation? I think that's interesting. And I think from the DR Congo perspective, Amit, this is a really big game for Wisa and Bakabu who were really good against Portugal.
01:05:08
Speaker
They need those guys to be good because you said it it was kind of the first thing you went to. Can those guys give them relief from the onslaught? right you're You're not going to control the ball. You're not going see a ton of possession here. But in those 15 to 20 minute stretches, right in those quarters, right look this this is going to break out perfectly with the hydration brace. In that quarter, can you find a two to three minute stretch where you have the ball and those guys are giving you an outlet to just kind of reset things?
01:05:34
Speaker
100%. they might. They might. um It's a good midfield battle, too. Rice and Anderson at times have been really, really good. At times have been stuck looking at a bunch of defenders in front of them. And so the other thing is, like, you need crossing. And England's missing that with Trent. And so that's where Saka needs to find some crosses. And we'll see what England does at right back. That is one area that Wisa can go and exploit, and maybe you see DR Congo's left side come and exploit. And take shots from distance. Try to hurt Pickford, right? He might give you something.
01:06:08
Speaker
That's another area that Wisa and Bukumbu can find. um It's a tricky game here. I think also England does have the... talking about what buttons can they press? We don't know, but I think Morgan Rogers can help.
01:06:19
Speaker
I think as a can help as they can take shots from distance, that could be an area that you need a goal in this game. He's the type of guy that could do that. And look, talked about plan K there's plan. I it's Ivan Tony.
01:06:32
Speaker
At some point, guy 26 in the squad could be your your mixer ball striker, right? And you also have Ollie Watkins too, who they haven't even needed. But like this is the time to to dig into your bag. Thomas Tuchel has definitely been managing with one hand behind his back. And maybe that's because he he likes it that way. He he enjoys the sufferer. But like if you need to call on your buttons, use the bench. Use the deep bench in England had. That is a very good strength for DR Congo. Look, I think we all know this game is going to be tough, but 120 minutes, that's where Tuchel's math is just a little bit evil.
01:07:06
Speaker
Jordan Pickford is somebody I certainly had circled in this game. I haven't been convinced by what I've seen from him so far. So that's something I
DR Congo vs England: Set Piece Exploitation
01:07:12
Speaker
have my eye on. And then in posse in goal on the other end for DR Congo, i thought it was really good against Columbia, but he can be prone to have a mistake here or there. He's gotta be strong. They have to command their area, right? And you're looking at and then Buntuan say, but the center backs set pieces like it's just, that's a lot of where England is going to look to find joy here. Those guys, they have to take care of it. They have
Argentina vs Cape Verde: Messi's Crucial Role
01:07:32
Speaker
to be good. Maybe the biggest mismatch of the round of 32 features Argentina against Cape Verde.
01:07:37
Speaker
Cape Verde, a remarkable story. They've got a long time to rest at their legs before Friday's game. Is there one more stunner in this team going a go against an argentinaina's Argentina side whose level has been high? Their vibes are immaculate. Lionel Messi is scoring for fun.
01:07:54
Speaker
All of that is probably going to get challenged at some point. I think a mean it's pretty hard to see it being Cape Verde that provides that challenge. But Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in the last World Cup. Anything can happen.
01:08:05
Speaker
Cape Verde defended really well against Spain, and Spain are really, really good on the ball, and theoretically in a vacuum, better than Argentina on the ball. The issue is that Argentina have Lionel Messi, and when Lionel Messi is playing this way, Cape Verde can do whatever they want for 90 minutes. like You lose that guy for a millisecond, and it's over, and that to me is the difference between...
01:08:24
Speaker
Argentina and the Spains and the Englands and except for the France of the world. Like he is their star. They are using him to to unlock the attack. And Cape Verde knows that everyone knows that, but it hasn't been enough for anyone to stop that. And I just don't feel like Cape Verde could stop that today. And so for them, they need to find a goal or two somehow on the counter Listen, Livermento has been really, really quiet. It'd be a really good time to try to ask a question ah of the Argentine center backs. Can you get Cudi Romero to make a mistake? Can you get Lissandro Martinez to make a mistake? Those are really kind of the only areas because, like...
01:09:01
Speaker
yeah, we know the Argentine midfield is slow, but like, i don't think you can press them. I don't think you are pressing them. I think this is looking like the Spain game. I think it's bunker, bunker and counter. and The two players who I really think could help Cape Verde when they're on the field and maybe it might be too late by the time they're on the field.
01:09:17
Speaker
Nuna Da Costa, Helio Varela. yeah Those have been really, really good players off the bench. Maybe you start them. They're running and transition power on the counter is what could really, really shake this loose. Otherwise, yeah, Jameer Montero, Livermento, they can they can counter you know two on three, see what happens, but it's going to be bunker and defend and hope. and You mark Messi, you double, triple mark him, and you hope you don't lose him in your back pocket even when you do that. And then you try to survive as long as you can and see if you can frustrate Argentina. It's not like it's just going to be automatic, but if you take away him, maybe you're forcing the other guys to do something. Maybe it's a difficult day at the office for Argentina.
01:09:57
Speaker
But Argentina's depth is also impressive too. Thiago Almada is big kind of and in the secondary runs that he makes. We saw Lautaro Martinez get off the mark. Julian Alvarez has been very quiet so far this World Cup. You have to think something's coming there.
Egypt vs Australia: Attack vs Defense
01:10:10
Speaker
i think Argentina provide verticality that Spain does it, and that's really where this Cape Verde defense could be had. Like, Deane and Pico Lopez have been really good, but if they can get those guys running and chasing and and trying to, you know, those one-twos that we've seen Messi just play incessantly this tournament and with some sort of with so much success,
01:10:30
Speaker
that's, I think, where where Cape Verde can have trouble. and And like, look, yeah, we've liked what we've seen from Pina and Lopez Cabral, the fullbacks, but Argentina are going to look to attack that. They're going to look to get to the byline and they're going to look to cross at the back. and And you know who's standing at the edge of the 18 box? It's Lionel Messi, right? That's what I think Argentina are going look to do here.
01:10:50
Speaker
Yeah, no, the the only thing I would say is that Cape Verde should not try to play with the ball. They've been doing that in all their games and they've been good at it. But the Argentina press should be pretty you know high intensity that they probably have to hit it a bit longer than they've been doing.
01:11:04
Speaker
Bozina was great against Spain, wasn't great in the other games. Like, he's got to be great if they have any sort of chance in this game. Regardless of what happens, it's been a great run for Cape Verde. I think
Switzerland vs Algeria: Attacking Trio vs Defensive Struggles
01:11:14
Speaker
they can challenge Argentina on their day.
01:11:17
Speaker
There's a lot here for Argentina to be able to call upon should things require it. Egypt, Australia, the other matchup in this quadrant. I think a myth that Egypt or the team are going to take the initiative here, right? Like I think they should have more of the ball. I think they have the better attacking players.
01:11:31
Speaker
I think Australia are more comfortable playing in a low block. And so I'm pretty interested to see how that goes because I think Egypt have been fairly successful doing that to kind of take the Iran game out of the equation so far.
01:11:43
Speaker
Yeah, the Egypt-New Zealand game is what you're looking at. Australia play a better version of that game, but you saw when Egypt revved it up, they were able to get their fullbacks really, really high and unleash Salah going left and having a runner to his right.
01:11:59
Speaker
And then also that runner being Hamadi on the right side crossing in and getting really good stuff from Zico. Like Zico and Hamdi are the two players I think can really, really help Egypt, Salah and Marmouche. And if they get four guys going, I think the midfield has been good enough. And the other thing is Australia. Just I don't feel like they've had enough outside of that one moment of punking Turkey. And now the book's kind of out.
01:12:25
Speaker
You know who to stop, you know who to track and your include hasn't been great outside of that one run that he made against Turkey. And I don't know that Australia can release the, I don't know that they can release the pressure as well as New Zealand did, right? There's not a big hunk that they can knock the ball long to and have him knock it down and run onto it. You're looking at maybe a guy like Connor Metcalf, this could be a big game for him, but I think that this Australia back five of boss or Connie Suter, you know, whether it's Harrington badge, whether we, see you know, what that looks like. I think Egypt can get those guys moving and they can kind of manipulate them and make them defend spaces that they're not comfortable defending. And Australia are probably going to be limited to to hitting it long and trying to convert on set pieces. That could be the place where Australia find an advantage here.
01:13:09
Speaker
That's one area where we saw New Zealand have an advantage on them on corners. And so for sure, Suter has been super, super effective. Yeah, I think that's a... You know what the case is for Australia. They're going to defend with five. They're going to make it as mucky as possible and try to survive and get some set pieces. So it's not impossible. Like all Australia are actually very good at this game, but...
01:13:30
Speaker
Egypt were pretty impressive, I think, through three games. and I guess, actually, the Iran game was really a weird ending. It's hard to to parse that, but i I feel decent about Egypt here. um I think Mo Salah is also going to very, very clearly be the best player on the field. Baal has been really, really good, but it's a different assignment.
01:13:51
Speaker
And Marmoush too, has kind of been a little bit quiet for Egypt, right? He didn't start the game against Iran. Again, you cannot leave that guy in space. He can absolutely make him make him pay. Patrick Beach in goal for Australia. It was a call, right, from from Tony Popovic to start him in favor of Matty Ryan. I think Patrick Beach has to have a big game. He had a big game against Turkey. He's going to need to save a lot of shots if Australia are looking to to get through in this match. Two more to break down. Amit, it's the last quadrant. Let's start with Switzerland, Algeria.
01:14:20
Speaker
It is an emotional game for Algeria that they're coming off of. They are in the round of 32. They've shown their quality in attack. They've also been pretty poor defending not just Austria, but also, of course, Argentina. they even had their moments against Jordan.
01:14:35
Speaker
This is a game where Manzambi, Vargas, and Bolo, the Swiss attack, should have success here. Based on Switzerland's kind of turnaround of of getting Manzabi in the lineup, you'd think so. And Algeria struggle with directness, with pace the other way. They struggled against Austria.
01:14:53
Speaker
Manzabi should have his way with the Algeria back line. So should Mbolo, especially if he's not hunting his own shot. Again, this is such a big development for them. Ben Sabani and Mondi are good players, but like...
01:15:06
Speaker
I don't think they can hang with Mbolo. And if it's Ait Nuri, then he's totally neutralized having to hang with Mnzambi. And even that, one-on-one, Mnzambi is a taller, faster player. I think Ait Nuri is a fine defender.
01:15:19
Speaker
And so it's just really, really tricky. And as you said, Vargas has been good too. good too So Algier kind of caught in this... lose-lose situation. You're scared of Monzambi and you just sit in a low block and then you can't do anything you're good at. They're not good at playing that game.
01:15:37
Speaker
But you you get everyone up the field, you try to control the game with the ball, and now you've got space the other way. so You saw what happened against Argentina, right? It's kind of that game state again. Yeah, so it's pick your poison a little bit.
01:15:49
Speaker
And i think you've just got to probably defend as hard as you can and bunker. And then when you get the ball, be very methodical playing out of the press and then try to set up mismatches against Ricardo Rodriguez off ball for Rion Mares. That's the one thing. And can Mazda get a superstar game?
01:16:10
Speaker
Can he get on the ball, come deep, get it, and then take it 30 yards off the field, beat a guy and play a pass for Mahrez or maybe for a striker. um That's the game. And Mazda can do it.
01:16:23
Speaker
Chibi can run. I think you're trying to hurt Switzerland's fullbacks off the ball, not necessarily on the ball. Like if you're set up and attacking Switzerland are happy to bunker. And so that's the issue.
01:16:36
Speaker
Yeah, that's what I think is really interesting here is Switzerland are probably the favorites in this game, but they would love nothing more than for Algeria to come at them and try to play through them because that just means that much more space for Johan Manzami and Vargas and Mbolo to run into. It's a very interesting to see how this game sets up because as you said, Algeria aren't exactly great at playing the defendant counter style. That's not their go-to. That's not their bread and butter.
01:17:02
Speaker
And so you've got this kind of weird imbalance because of it It's an odd game in that sense. And so maybe it'll look pretty even on paper for 30, 45, 60 minutes.
01:17:14
Speaker
um We'll see. I think Switzerland also... Both teams have subs, but I think you know Vargas and then you bring it in Endoy has been good. um there's there's There's room there. And look, Bolo has...
01:17:28
Speaker
I think when they turn into this counterattacking team, they can use his holdup play in a lot of good ways in a way that particularly troubles Algeria. And of course, I forgot to say this, Algeria's goalkeeping is a big, big issue. And so that's where anyone in the Switzerland front six, seven can get shots from distance and put them under pressure. And also on set pieces as well, I think Algeria struggled physically vertically in terms of height in the box. And That's where like Akanji and Elvedi are really towering players and Mbolo is a towering player. So I think this is going to be a grimy game where Switzerland will have like that marginal advantage in both boxes. And that's trouble for Algeria might play well.
01:18:07
Speaker
And Algeria, again, are just coming off of an experience where they pretty much every time Austria attack, they scored, right? And Switzerland have more level than Austria do. It's not a great combination. And yeah, what you point out, whether it's Ossama Benoit, whether it's Luka Zidane, you're not feeling great about the goalkeeping situation. And in a knockout round game, you probably need that. It's like, don't think Algeria can really outscore Switzerland.
Ghana vs Colombia: Defensive Strategy and Creativity
01:18:30
Speaker
but should be a good one. Last game to talk about, Amit, it's Colombia-Ghana.
01:18:34
Speaker
This game is going to look a lot like Colombia-DR Congo, right? Ghana, Carlos Keros. His guys got to run for a half against Croatia. It's back to the block, boys. We're playing 5-4-1. Jordan Ayews, the outlet. He's not going to be much of an outlet.
01:18:48
Speaker
Can Colombia break that down? They eventually did it against DR Congo. Their attacking movement was really good against Portugal. They didn't quite have the final quality. This is, all right, Colombia, they won the group. Your reward is a low block Ghana team, right?
01:19:03
Speaker
But can you handle the pressure of being favorites, of being a team that people are looking at it and saying, this team can be a quarterfinalist. There could be a path to a semifinal here. It's a lot of pressure on Colombia now. Perfectly described. And that's where Ghana has to go is that same way they made England feel that mentally. They have to make Columbia feel that mentally. I think Columbia have less buttons to press against the low block than England did. um Columbia's button is Munoz off ball movement. That is the thing that can help them. And Suarez...
01:19:36
Speaker
needs to turn and shoot. He's not really a crossing striker. Cordoba, Cordoba, you could use that a little bit. At some point, Ghana's quality across the back line, like the forward defenders, the actual players, like are not that good. Not even as good as Dio Congo's back four. So I think that's where maybe it's not a Diaz verticality game. It's a Diaz take-on game where he needs to to be tidy in spaces and One thing he's shown really good is that ability to cut across his guy and get that shot. Now, he does that in space. He may not have space, but can he he he get corners as well?
01:20:14
Speaker
That's where I think, again, in some of these these blocky, blocky games, Columbia have that sauce. And that almost is what got them that goal that was offside by a half foot is that set piece delivery for Columbia. I think that's going to be their key in this game. It's not going to be easy. like If Ghana does what they did against England,
01:20:32
Speaker
I think it's just going to be a tough open play game for Columbia. I don't necessarily think they have the tools to like totally break that down with style. They're just going to have to bang, bang the, bang the door down. And and that's on set pieces. And how much Rodriguez? Yeah, that's that. This is his game. This is why he's in the team is to pick passes. And if Ghana don't come out 30 yards to find him,
01:20:52
Speaker
then you know he's going to hurt you. And if you do, that's where Munoz starts to find space. So you're trying to leverage that a lot. Just keep going to that well. And look, Keros has got to tell his guys to be opportunistic.
01:21:05
Speaker
I think this is the game. for it's It's the same game they've been. And truthfully, like outside of Panama, that hasn't worked. I don't think it's going to work against Lerma, Sanchez, and Lukumi. So you're trying to get to pens. I think that's what it is for Ghana. Let's see. Columbia are definitely not um impervious to to having a a tough day in front of the net.
01:21:26
Speaker
But brute force, I think, is the way to go, and that should do it. 120 minutes, sorry, it is a long time when you don't have an outlet, right? When you don't have a consistent outlet. And when you're allowing players of the quality of Thomas Rodriguez, it's a rock and a hard place for Ghana because you've got Rodriguez or if it's not Rodriguez Quintero, if you give those guys space to pick a pass, eventually they're going pick the pass.
01:21:52
Speaker
If you take away the space to pick the pass, then they're all of a sudden there's space, and that's going to be difficult. That, I think, is where Columbia have that kind of half moment in this game that they just have to take advantage of.
01:22:03
Speaker
And think about how Ghana defended great against England, but the last 10 minutes, England still like totally assault them. And so can you make Ghana chase you, chase you, get their legs tired and then get numbers in the box? And so maybe you get two strikers as well. And yeah, I think this could be a set piece goal here. I'm i'm calling on big Davidson Sanchez to get his, ah get his goal for Columbia. And listen, if Ghana is chasing the game, I don't feel good about it.
01:22:27
Speaker
Dobbins and Sanchez, Colombian set pieces, that's been their go-to, right? And now that they have a ah leveled up Luis Diaz, if you will, it's another go-to for them. But those, again, you think that there's just going to be too much here for Colombia. think what Karras has done with Ghana to get them to this point is nothing short of immaculate, right? Like we've seen the organizational struggles for this team defensively.
01:22:48
Speaker
For them to have fixed that, yes. But and it kind of comes back to the point that you made of at some point, the individual defenders here have to shine through. and that's probably where this just becomes a step too far for them. But look, they pull it off against England.
01:23:03
Speaker
There's still 30 more minutes that they have to do that against Colombia unless they can somehow find a goal. It just feels like it's going to be too much, but Colombia have been known to wilt under pressure at various points, and that's where Ghana's going to have to play here is try and put all the pressure on Colombia and hope can hold out for as long as possible.
The Thrill of Knockouts and Importance of Penalties
01:23:20
Speaker
Well said. I mean, even even this game, all the games are just so like, we're we're talking about it. You know the shape, the shape what it's going to be, but there's all these little different wrinkles that that are going to make it fun. and ah Last thing before we wrap it up, rules of knockout football, World Cup after dark rules of knockout football. Practice your dang penalty kicks. I do not want to see a good team get got on penalty kicks. You better have have worked on it. You better be ready for it. um It's a skill.
01:23:49
Speaker
Just please, please don't please don't go out that way if you're the the better team. And yeah, we're rooting for some of the underdogs, but like it's ah it's an art to. it's going to be so good. I'm so looking forward to the next couple of days. I'm looking forward to to being able to to take in all the action with you and and then come back and and break it down. So our plan here for the next couple of days is we will be back to recap the Monday matches at the end of Monday. So be sure to look for that episode. And we'll have again, have daily recaps of everything that you see in the knockout stage.
01:24:21
Speaker
You know where to find us here at the World Cup After Dark, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. patreon.com slash WCAD for exclusive subscriber only benefits and to directly support what we are doing.
01:24:32
Speaker
We're through the group stage. We've had one knockout round match and there are so many more to come. And we at this podcast cannot wait. Thank you for going through the entirety of this show. If you've gotten this far, I'm sure that there was a lot that you were able to take from it. And we are happy for that. Enjoy the games coming up and we will talk to you guys soon.