German Election Overview
00:00:00
Speaker
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast.
00:00:05
Speaker
Today we're talking about a very sort of recent topic, which is the German election.
00:00:09
Speaker
And we're going to be talking about who won, why did they win, some of the wins and losses, and why that happened.
00:00:16
Speaker
So yes, I'm sure that you've all seen one particular political event alongside Trump and Macron dominate the headlines recently.
00:00:25
Speaker
And that is obviously the German election.
00:00:29
Speaker
So as a brief overview of what's happened just before Diane will dive into sort of facts and figures, Frederick Meurs of the Christian Democrats Union has won the 2025 German election.
00:00:44
Speaker
So his party has received the most amount of votes of any party, around 28.5% of votes.
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Speaker
So he's obviously going to have to form a coalition.
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Speaker
However, he has still won the most amount of votes and thus he will likely be the next chancellor of Germany, replacing Olaf Scholz, a man who's just come out from a rather unpopular time in office.
Youth Vote and Party Dynamics
00:01:08
Speaker
Germany at the moment, this country sort of with economic stagnation, isn't really performing too well.
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Speaker
It's far from its usual historic reputation of being an economic and industrial powerhouse.
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Speaker
So it's a very pivotal time in Germany, in German politics.
00:01:26
Speaker
So Diane, can you perhaps give us a bit more of a detailed insight into the election?
00:01:32
Speaker
Yes, so first of all, the raw percentages are as follows.
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Speaker
So the CDU, which is the Christian Democratic Union, headed by Friedrich Merz, won 28.6% of votes.
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Speaker
The SPD, headed by Olaf Scholz, won 16.4% of votes, which is 9.3% less than at the previous elections.
00:01:54
Speaker
That's quite a significant chunk of votes.
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Speaker
Another surprising one is the AFD at 20.8% as the second largest party, doubling their vote since the last election.
00:02:08
Speaker
What I also think is also interesting is we have to mention turnout.
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Speaker
It's the largest turnout in any German election since 1990, so since the reunification of the country.
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Speaker
A couple of other figures are as follows.
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Speaker
The CDU, so the winning party, has 208 seats in parliament, with the AfD coming at 152.
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Speaker
Another very interesting fact is voting by age.
00:02:37
Speaker
So a large percentage of 18 to 24 year olds voted for two parties, which are the AFD, so the radical right and the left party, which is a radical left.
00:02:50
Speaker
I find that very interesting because as you progress in ages, you see a larger and larger percentage for the CDU.
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Speaker
However, in 18 to 24 year olds, the CDU actually performed quite shockingly, I must say, only coming at sort of 1% higher than the SPD and 2% higher than the Greens.
00:03:16
Speaker
So why did that happen?
00:03:18
Speaker
My view on it is that the young people have chosen the radical left or right in this case as a sort of protest to how Germany is going.
US Influence in European Politics
00:03:31
Speaker
Now, whether that's fair, I don't think it is because
00:03:36
Speaker
My opinion is that Mads is coming from a sort of good background on the economy and business as a former BlackRock exec.
00:03:48
Speaker
And I think what's very interesting was his messaging in the run-up to the election.
00:03:53
Speaker
It was sort of... Because he is sort of... He was fighting with Merkel in the 2000s of who was going to lead the CDU and he lost that fight.
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Speaker
But now he's come back.
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Speaker
From we can do this to I can do this.
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Speaker
So it's kind of him saying, look, the country's not been run that greatly in the last of four, five, ten years.
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Speaker
But in order to make it better, you have to go at a moderate option.
00:04:29
Speaker
So yes, and I think a very important and interesting thing you said there was the rise of AFD.
00:04:37
Speaker
So in the UK, we've had the rise of reform and the rise of AFD is very similar in many ways.
00:04:44
Speaker
And that's principally because we've seen both of these parties take advantage of social media.
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Speaker
It was in our last episode that Vince Cable mentioned how the third party and the second party even in the UK, they don't really get much media attention.
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Speaker
So I think Farage, as the AFD, they've recognised this.
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Speaker
So they've looked towards expanding their presence on social media.
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Speaker
and taking advantage of this to connect with young people.
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Speaker
And I think their prominence on social media is definitely a huge factor for why they have performed so well amongst young people, because they're who young people are seeing.
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Speaker
They're not watching these, I think it was nine TV debates they did.
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Speaker
They're not watching these TV debates, but what they are doing is that they are scrolling through TikTok, scrolling on Instagram,
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Speaker
And if they're seeing AFD faces instead of CDU ones, they're likely to vote for them.
00:05:43
Speaker
Yeah, I agree with that.
00:05:45
Speaker
And I think another interesting point to make is that I think more than other elections, German elections are two big things.
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Speaker
Number one is how easily people can be manipulated through the use of social media.
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Speaker
I'll go into that a bit later.
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Speaker
And number two is the sort of US intervention in European elections lately, because at the Munich Security Conference, which just happened last week, what I thought was incredibly interesting was not only that Elon
00:06:20
Speaker
quite a big endowment, but also J.D.
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Speaker
Vance, instead of meeting with Olaf Scholz, who was the Chancellor of Germany at that time, or even Friedrich Merz, who had the largest chance of winning the election, he had a meeting with Alice Weill, who is the head of the AFD.
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Speaker
And I thought that sends a very worrying message, in my opinion at least, which is that Trump and the current Republican administration have
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Speaker
is trying both through funding but also through sort of political clout to get these people elected in Europe.
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Speaker
They want to get these people elected in Europe and have a sort of
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Speaker
Trump wants to spread his message and the best way he can do that is through these puppet governments in the AFD.
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Speaker
They're trying to do this in Romania as well, in my opinion, I don't think, you know, but that's for another episode.
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Speaker
And I think that's very dangerous.
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Speaker
But more on the first point, if you look at Alice Weill and the AFD,
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Speaker
You would not say she's the leader of the party because the AFD's whole thing is of traditional norms.
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Speaker
We need to stop immigration.
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Speaker
We need to stop LGBTQ rights.
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Speaker
You know, women should stay at home.
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Speaker
She's a woman who is lesbian and she's married to an immigrant.
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Speaker
like what is happening and she's sending out all these messages and it is absolutely fantastic to see that she can actually get 21% of votes by being the complete opposite of what she believes in I don't know how strong they are on the anti-LGBTQ plus stance
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Speaker
They are very strong.
00:08:03
Speaker
Oh, they're very strong.
00:08:04
Speaker
Because that surprises me just because there was an article in The Spectator I recently read, and that is that they've actually got quite a huge following amongst the LGBTQ plus community.
00:08:14
Speaker
I mean, obviously, her herself.
Challenges of Coalition Governments
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Speaker
But a lot of their electoral base are members of the LGBTQ plus community.
00:08:23
Speaker
Yeah, I think the way they're doing it though, and this is quite interesting as well, is they're not making about LGBTQ+, because I listened to an interview of hers, and she was asked about this, obviously, and she said that she's not queer.
00:08:39
Speaker
She is married to a woman she's known for 20 years.
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Speaker
So what they're trying to do is sort of take away part of homosexuality and the LGBTQ community, which...
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Speaker
suits them and apparently they find acceptable but then other parts of it they're like no we don't like this so they're very hard on some things like trans rights quite hard on that but on the other hand when it talks about being lesbian or being gay they seem to have quite a sort of soft stance but also more than this they are sort of saying you're not
00:09:21
Speaker
But these people are taking it too far.
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Speaker
I think that's what they're trying to do with their messaging.
00:09:26
Speaker
Yeah, that would definitely make sense.
00:09:28
Speaker
Another sort of key thing and a key sort of, I think, points for lots of people our age that we've noticed about this election are the problems of proportional representation.
00:09:39
Speaker
So obviously Mertz only won 28.6% of the votes.
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Speaker
So he's going to have to form a coalition to have a majority in German parliament.
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Speaker
So likely he's going to have to form this coalition with Scholz's SDP at around 16.5%.
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Speaker
Because he won't form a coalition with the AFD because of their extreme right-wing views, it's sort of likely at the moment that he'll form a coalition with the Greens at 12%.
00:10:09
Speaker
But this is a lot of parties.
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Speaker
It's a three party coalition.
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Speaker
And so the first thing that comes into my head is inefficiency.
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Speaker
We've got three parties with drastically different viewpoints on some issues.
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Speaker
So how are they going to compromise?
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Speaker
The Greens can be quite left wing.
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Speaker
So, yeah, obviously, there's lots of problems.
00:10:29
Speaker
What do you think about this, Dan?
00:10:31
Speaker
Yeah, well, I think, first of all, because of how the German sort of parliament system works, they only need the CDU and the SPD, actually.
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Speaker
I've just done a calculation now.
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Speaker
There's a great article on this by the DW, by the way, which is a German newspaper.
00:10:50
Speaker
And you can sort of play around with the coalitions.
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Speaker
And the CDU and the SPD together barely form a majority.
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Speaker
So that might be the move.
00:11:00
Speaker
they go for or they might enlist one of the sort of smaller parties that got about three, four percent.
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Speaker
But they can do a two or three party coalition.
00:11:13
Speaker
I think here's my background as a European, continental European, and a fan of proportional representation comes a bit of a clash with yours, John.
00:11:24
Speaker
But I think it's probably the best system because
00:11:28
Speaker
Although extremists can get in power, and there's obviously issues with that, if that's what the people want, then I don't think it's right that the Lib Dems and Reform got the same number of votes, roughly speaking.
00:11:44
Speaker
But the Lib Dems have got like 60 seats, 70 seats, and Reform have four.
00:11:51
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think obviously from the national image, that's a problem.
00:11:56
Speaker
From the image of individual constituencies, that obviously isn't.
00:12:01
Speaker
But the main reason why I've always found proportional representation a bad system of government is mainly coalitions.
00:12:10
Speaker
simply I've always thought coalitions were affected from a historical standpoint and from like a modern political one and that is because for a coalition to work that the at least two parties in it they need to be very similar in a way and that's simply because they need to agree on lots of things because because when they start to disagree that's when problems occur you know they won't get on it with an issue so
00:12:35
Speaker
the party that's not going to get on, they're not going to allow to get passed through their parliament.
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Speaker
So I've always just thought they're an extremely problematic way of government.
00:12:45
Speaker
They may from a theoretical standpoint be better, as in more people get represented, but in actually doing things, the government seems to be ineffective in a coalition because of proportional representation.
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Speaker
And I think that is something we have seen with the last German government, because there were huge differences in their views on lots of issues,
Merz's Leadership and Economic Prospects
00:13:06
Speaker
and they couldn't agree on how to tackle it.
00:13:09
Speaker
Yeah, I definitely see that.
00:13:12
Speaker
I think it's a valid thing.
00:13:14
Speaker
I also, however, will say that I personally don't think Olaf Scholz was the best...
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Speaker
manager in a such tumultuous time for the German economy.
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Speaker
They basically had a massive economic problem in the last couple of years.
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Speaker
There hasn't been any growth.
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Speaker
There's been actually the opposite of it.
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Speaker
And I don't think Schultz was probably the best prepared for this.
00:13:41
Speaker
I think definitely
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Speaker
The transition from the Merkel years was so big and so difficult that I just don't think you could do it.
00:13:51
Speaker
But that's, I think that would be expected.
00:13:53
Speaker
I don't think anyone could have stepped in after sort of 15 years of Angela Merkel and just be like, okay, this is what we're going to do.
00:14:01
Speaker
But I do feel quite confident with the CDU.
00:14:04
Speaker
I think Mads knows what he's doing.
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Speaker
I think he's got good rhetoric.
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Speaker
I think he's got good speech.
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Speaker
I don't know if he's too extreme either, which is also great to see.
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Speaker
He's a free market capitalist.
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Speaker
He wants, number one, to...
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Speaker
put back Germany on the economic forefront of Europe, which I think is necessary, both not only for Germany, but for Europe as a whole.
00:14:28
Speaker
And I think Friedrich Merz might be, I know this is controversial in an episode that was before when I said that Macron was the most powerful leader of Europe, which I think has come to fruition because he's the one meeting with Trump and calling all these summits.
00:14:44
Speaker
But that's a story for another time.
00:14:46
Speaker
I think Mertz is very likely, if he can succeed in a year or two, to take that place and represent Europe at the top level.
Europe's Defence and Economic Independence
00:14:56
Speaker
Yeah, I agree with you there.
00:14:58
Speaker
I think Mertz has got big boots to fill in the way.
00:15:01
Speaker
He needs to do quite a lot of things.
00:15:03
Speaker
And if he can do that, he'll become very impressive.
00:15:07
Speaker
Germany is a country, they're known for their industrial performance and their economic growth.
00:15:12
Speaker
That's not been happening.
00:15:14
Speaker
And I think, I mean, I remember on the day of the election listening to BBC News and they were interviewing German people and they were all saying, you know, we want our economy to perform better.
00:15:28
Speaker
And so I think Mertz really needs to deliver on that.
00:15:32
Speaker
Another area where there's lots of sort of contention around what Mertz will do and what's going to happen in the UK is defence spending.
00:15:40
Speaker
So do you have any thoughts on this, Diane?
00:15:42
Speaker
Obviously, it's very relevant for Germany being that bit closer to Ukraine.
00:15:48
Speaker
Well, I think it's quite interesting because, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think he has previously said he wants to increase spending.
00:15:59
Speaker
But the current chancellor and sort of the people looking after the money have said that's that we can't do that.
00:16:07
Speaker
So I think he will probably manage to do it.
00:16:11
Speaker
Not immediately, maybe, but in the long term.
00:16:15
Speaker
I think he wants to do it because, you know, I'm just reading now, actually, he has given us a declaration that the US basically does not care about Europe anymore, which I think is true.
00:16:29
Speaker
And he has basically told everyone in Europe, we need to raise our money for defence or else...
00:16:35
Speaker
life, life's not going to be good basically, because what I'm seeing, and I don't know if you're seeing this too, but it's sort of Putin and Trump coming together, taking Europe out of the equation in a fight against China, I think.
00:16:57
Speaker
You know, Trump has basically made a couple of remarks a bit dodgy regarding European safety.
00:17:04
Speaker
And Mertz has basically said he does not care much about the fate of Europe.
00:17:10
Speaker
That's a quote from him.
00:17:12
Speaker
He said, my priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible.
00:17:15
Speaker
So we can really achieve independence from the USA.
00:17:18
Speaker
I think if you can do that, I genuinely think it will become incredibly impressive.
00:17:22
Speaker
And the first step in doing that is rating defense spending and basically not needing the US to be the big brother that when there's a fight comes in, it's like, okay...
00:17:33
Speaker
Yeah, I agree with you there completely.
00:17:35
Speaker
I think the USA has almost betrayed European defence.
00:17:39
Speaker
I think you can say that Trump has done it.
00:17:43
Speaker
And so Mertz and in the UK at the moment, under Sakia, they have realised now that they've got to do something to fill this void that's been created.
00:17:53
Speaker
And the real answer is increasing defence spending.
00:17:57
Speaker
Obviously, you've got to look at this and realise from a historical background, the UK was very strong, had a very strong defence, very strong army because they had a growing economy and because their economic performance was strong.
00:18:11
Speaker
So I think perhaps the solution for being able to raise defence spending in both Germany and the UK would be to solve these economic problems, increase their economic performance, increase GDP growth in order for them to spend more of their GDP on defence.
00:18:28
Speaker
And I think that is the really essential thing we need to do with Trump saying he's not interested in Ukraine.
00:18:35
Speaker
The UK and Germany, they have to realise now's the time we have to expand our militaries so that we're ready for anything that America doesn't want to be involved in.
00:18:46
Speaker
Yeah, I fully agree with you.
00:18:47
Speaker
I don't think it's only about the military.
00:18:49
Speaker
It's about Europe waking up, radically quite late, but waking up and being like, this isn't going to work forever.
00:19:00
Speaker
Every time something happens, just pray that Americans give us money and give us aid and give us weapons and come in with the military because Trump isn't interested in that.
00:19:12
Speaker
I'm willing to say that Trump does not care a single bit about what happens to Europe.
00:19:18
Speaker
As long as America is doing well economically and manages to sort of beat China in this trade war, that's going to happen.
00:19:25
Speaker
I just don't think he cares if the whole European continent is turning to a tourist attraction.
Romanian Elections and US Involvement
00:19:31
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think that's what he wants to do with the Gaza Strip.
00:19:35
Speaker
So there's definitely some truth in that.
00:19:39
Speaker
Trump is disregarding Europe at the moment and that will be dangerous.
00:19:44
Speaker
A final thing that I thought we could just quickly touch on, Diane, is obviously what's happening in Romania, so another country in continental Europe.
00:19:53
Speaker
So could you explain that situation in regards to their election and Trump?
00:20:01
Speaker
Basically, there were supposed to be elections in November.
00:20:06
Speaker
which got cancelled after the first round of the elections.
00:20:09
Speaker
We operate a sort of France-esque system with two rounds in the presidential election.
00:20:13
Speaker
First round, everyone runs, and then the top two candidates go in a second round.
00:20:16
Speaker
So apart from the awfully low turnout, which was to be expected because all the candidates, frankly, were not representative of anything or anyone, but this individual who no one's ever heard of,
00:20:32
Speaker
is on TikTok and now you scroll on TikTok at any election video and you see like 500 comments saying we're voting him.
00:20:41
Speaker
So, X has got cancelled due to foreign interference.
00:20:45
Speaker
Everyone said that was Russia.
00:20:47
Speaker
I think it was the USA.
00:20:51
Speaker
This guy wrote the sort of preview to RFK Jr's book.
00:20:56
Speaker
He is in the same sort of
00:20:58
Speaker
intellectual hub as rfk junior does not believe in doctors medicine or vaccines um doesn't believe in wind energy as well another one of the you know if if you do listen there are genuinely some weird not weird just actually incorrect things such as denmark used to be part of romania romanian is the first language that i invented latin
00:21:24
Speaker
you know, all these kinds of things.
00:21:26
Speaker
That's just not true.
00:21:28
Speaker
But the people have had it with the current government.
00:21:31
Speaker
There's too much corruption.
00:21:32
Speaker
There's too much frustration.
00:21:35
Speaker
And this, you know, individual initially, I must say this initially seemed like a sort of okay guy.
00:21:43
Speaker
But then as more videos of him began to sort of emerge from the abyss, showing the sort of
00:21:51
Speaker
comments he's been making i think it's been getting darker and darker and it is again i think it's the same case as in germany with the afd it's people saying things so that other people believe them but they don't believe themselves so he not only doesn't believe in medicine but he's like talks about romania and romania romania he needed a knee operation and went to germany for it
00:22:20
Speaker
And then, you know, it's sort of him being like, oh, I've never been part of the system, but very clearly he has been.
00:22:30
Speaker
So here's again, I think, another story.
00:22:34
Speaker
Elon Musk tweeting out again about this guy.
00:22:38
Speaker
Same thing happening here.
00:22:39
Speaker
The USA is trying to put people in power, people who
00:22:47
Speaker
The moment the EU crumbles, there is no pushback to America's decisions.
00:22:54
Speaker
Europe on its own, as individual countries, frankly, they don't have the strength to oppose America.
00:23:00
Speaker
However, the EU on a whole can end things relating to the European continent and say, look, this is not happening.
00:23:10
Speaker
I think this is part of the Ukraine war and also heavily linked with Germany because no matter what's going to happen in the elections in Romania, which we frankly don't know, then April or May, but no one knows who's going to win.
00:23:29
Speaker
But if Germany can manage to get back to that level of economic growth and that being that economic powerhouse of the continent,
00:23:37
Speaker
I think a lot of these American pressures around the continent will also decrease.
00:23:42
Speaker
So we will have a lot less US interference.
00:23:47
Speaker
because we've always had US interference in Europe, especially the Eastern Bloc, but it was a bit more niche.
00:23:54
Speaker
You couldn't really see it.
00:23:55
Speaker
I don't think Trump cares.
00:23:56
Speaker
He's doing it out in the open on Twitter or X. And yeah, I think the moment Europe on itself gets back in economically, these sort of fraudsters...
00:24:10
Speaker
that are getting bankrolled by the USA and the Trump administration indirectly or directly, well, their support will decrease like this extremely quickly.
00:24:23
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I haven't really been following it too much, but I find that very interesting.
00:24:28
Speaker
I mean, I can't really offer much of an opinion about US influence, but the one thing I have noticed and has made headlines about US influence in Romania is in regards to the famous social media misogynist Andrew Tate.
00:24:43
Speaker
and how Trump wants him to be extradited from Romania I believe, or wants his sentence to be lowered.
00:24:50
Speaker
And what was interesting is that they did mention the pressure this has and how they are thinking that the Romanian courts will say, okay, we'll let him off for example.
00:25:02
Speaker
It is very likely.
00:25:06
Speaker
It is very likely and it is very likely for two main reasons.
00:25:08
Speaker
Number one, there's a war in Ukraine, which directly borders Romania.
00:25:12
Speaker
So there is a sort of element of fright and fear in the Romanian government that if things don't go well, we might be dealing with Putin in a couple of months.
00:25:21
Speaker
Obviously, that's a situation that no one wants to be in, including the government and the people.
00:25:28
Speaker
So they want to avoid that at all costs.
00:25:30
Speaker
We also have a military base of the US, which was one of the largest military base in the Eastern Bloc of Europe, in the whole of Europe, actually, but extremely important strategically.
00:25:41
Speaker
We've got US missiles, tens of thousands of soldiers.
00:25:47
Speaker
So there is a sort of layer of protection.
00:25:49
Speaker
And the remaining government at the moment is incredibly scared.
00:25:54
Speaker
two things will happen.
00:25:55
Speaker
Number one, if they don't comply with basically every request that the US has, Trump will pull the NATO base out of Romania.
00:26:06
Speaker
It's incredibly dangerous because the moment that happens, basically, we are preparing for war.
00:26:13
Speaker
There's nothing protecting us anymore.
00:26:14
Speaker
There's no one protecting us anymore.
00:26:16
Speaker
And the second thing is also if in the election this candidate Georgescu does indeed win,
00:26:25
Speaker
there is a very possible risk that he will sort of begin this process of separation, which he can't really do due to the constitution, needs to be a referendum on leaving NATO and the EU.
00:26:38
Speaker
But we've seen how it works with Brexit.
00:26:39
Speaker
You never know how these things turn out.
Summary and Further Exploration
00:26:42
Speaker
And frankly, due to low turnout, more motivation in his side of supporters, that is a very real possibility.
00:26:51
Speaker
So as a quick recap, we have looked at both the German election and also at the end we've taken a bit of a look into the Romanian election and current Romanian political situation.
00:27:04
Speaker
In particular, focusing on US influence, which Dan has explained is a huge factor in Romania at the moment, both for their election and both for the government in general.
00:27:17
Speaker
Yeah, thank you very much for listening and we hope you enjoyed the episode.
00:27:21
Speaker
If you did, please do go back to our previous episodes with Servin Scable and other guests.
00:27:27
Speaker
As well as this, we hope that you like the podcast, give us a review and of course, we're always happy to see a comment either on our social media platforms or Spotify directly.
00:27:38
Speaker
Okay, see you soon.