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Is Democracy In Decline? With "Historian of Ideas" Johan Norberg
35 Plays29 days ago
Johan Norberg is interviewed by Jason McKenna. Norberg is a Swedish author and historian of ideas. He is a senior fellow at the Cato institute. In this interview Norberg assesses the present state of democracy around the world and explains why he still has hope for western democracy. In 2003 Norberg won the Friedrich-August-von-Hayek-Stiftung prize along side Otmar Issing and former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
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Transcript
Introduction and Thesis
00:00:10
Speaker
Is democracy in decline? Well, we'll be discussing that today, and the current shape of democracy with author and historian of ideas, Johan Norberg.
00:00:21
Speaker
I'm Jason McKenna, and this is the Observations Podcast. So welcome to the show, Johan, and today we're going to be talking on the issue of Is Democracy Under Threat?
00:00:34
Speaker
And you have a lot of capability to talk on this. You are the author of Progress, 10 Reasons to Look Forward to the Future, and also Open, the Story of Human Progress. But you do have a new book coming out, which is also linked to this topic. So would you like to tease us out with some of the ideas of this book and how it does link to our discussion points today?
00:00:55
Speaker
Yeah, sure. It's a book called Peak Human, what we can learn from the rise and fall of golden ages. And well, this seems to be a good time to be talking about the end of world orders.
00:01:08
Speaker
ah So timing is conspicuous.
Historical Context of Democracy
00:01:11
Speaker
So it's a history book from ancient Athens and onwards, looking at places and eras explosive creativity in various sectors and why It turned out that way, but also in the long run, why they couldn't sustain themselves and why those episodes ended and some lessons to be drawn.
00:01:31
Speaker
So, Johan, from your analysis of peaks and troughs through human history, would you suggest that we are in a so-called trough?
Current Threats to Democracy
00:01:40
Speaker
Could be. It could be. Who knows? It feels like it, certainly in in many ways, um Because many of the things that underpin this era of progress, things like a rulebased rules-based world order, um openness to trade and to exchange in terms of intellectual exchange and economic exchange, seems to be under threat right now. And if we keep on moving in that um direction, at least we're heading for trouble, I think.
00:02:13
Speaker
So let's build upon that analysis into the rules-based order. You've been an author of fairly positive books about the future. For example, in 2019, you stated that there are 10 historic reasons why we should remain optimistic.
00:02:28
Speaker
Has your view now shifted around democracy? Well, yes and no. There are some signs pointing to to trouble, and I'm sure we'll get into that. But before we do that, I also think it's important to point out that progress is complex. It can happen despite the many mistakes we we are making, because...
Progress Amidst Challenges
00:02:50
Speaker
people, as long as they have a certain degree of ah freedom and um they adapt and they improvise to to solve the many problems that we create. So, I mean, since the turn of the millennium, in a way, we've had a have experienced an awful time. We've had the great financial crisis. We had the covid pandemic that shut down the world. We've had Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
00:03:16
Speaker
25 awful years, and yet these 25 awful years have also been the best 25 years in human history. If you look at objective indicators of human wellbeing, if you look at things like extreme poverty, roughly 130,000 people were lifted out of extreme poverty every day since the turn of the millennium.
00:03:37
Speaker
ah Child mortality has been cut in half. So last year, 4 million fewer children died. than in 2000, in the year 2000. So we as long as we have this freedom to adapt to explore new knowledge, experiment with new technologies and business models and move about in a new at adaptive way, we can also innovate our way around those problems. So I'm still, I'd say, a a qualified optimist, even though I see trouble ahead.
00:04:07
Speaker
How much were these positive trends that you've described linked to the voting patterns and overall to democracy? Oh, yeah. I mean, this doesn't happen by itself. Progress is not automatic. It's dependent on people having the freedom to...
00:04:22
Speaker
um change their ways and to to adapt, to move to new places, to solve strange new complex problems in ah in a novel way. And that's all dependent on open societies with a high degree of freedom and personal and and civil and economic liberties. And obviously, if we are now seeing an erosion of those freedoms, then progress will be ah threatened as well.
00:04:51
Speaker
Let's explore this threat as you've described it. US scholar on democracy Larry Diamond, all the way back in 2007, described that there was a democracy recession.
00:05:03
Speaker
And this seems to have continued. Freedom House has furthered warnings stating that global freedom has declined for an 18th year in a row in
Global Perspective on Democracy
00:05:11
Speaker
2023. It described in its annual report of that year that civil rights and freedoms had diminished in 52 countries.
00:05:19
Speaker
How do these types of reports make you feel about the state of democracy? Do you manage to retain positivity? Yeah, um it's hard, I must say, because those worrying trends that are there all over the place. And I think this is partly related to...
00:05:38
Speaker
Things like, um I think the global financial crisis 2008 shook confidence in Western democracy. So many places around the world started thinking perhaps we shouldn't imitate them after all.
00:05:53
Speaker
And I also think that just the example of America has um has changed. It used to be the beacon of of hope, the reservoir of freedom of democracy for the rest of the world.
00:06:05
Speaker
And now it seems like um it has a president that doesn't really care what happens in other places and even seems to admire ah despots and dictators. And obviously it sets another kind of example. And we some of that democratic erosion.
00:06:23
Speaker
takes place because of that. um I will, though, say that but before we despair, we should consider that we're still at a historical high point for global liberty, despite this erosion. We came down from what was the peak of democracy. It it has come down since, I agree with that assessment.
00:06:46
Speaker
But that was from the moment in time that we had the the the broadest extension of democracy and civil liberties on our planet. Let's not forget that as late as the 1970s, we had people, experts like Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who predicted that democracy would only survive in isolated and peculiar places here and there because it seemed to be...
00:07:11
Speaker
dictatorships being the ah the the um solution for for the future. And that obviously it didn't happen. We've had a a huge explosion and improvement of democracy and freedom around the world up until roughly 2007, 2008. And these are worrying trends now when it's it's coming down, but it's it's not as bad as it looked in the 1970s. So that's some comfort at least.
00:07:41
Speaker
Let's take it back to 2024. It was seen as the year of elections, as many large powers of the world went to the ballot box. was almost seen as a test.
00:07:53
Speaker
What were your feelings about this hugely important year? Well, at least I'd say it's a sign that... We he even though we've seen this um decline in recent years, we're still at a historical historically high plateau of democracy and freedom around the world. And I think 2024 was ah a sign of that. Some 70 countries having elections, more than half the world's population, India, Indonesia, the US, the European Union.
00:08:26
Speaker
It's something to take pride in and and We were worried about it, thinking about the the potential for large-scale disinformation, perhaps based on new AI models. We worried about yeah incumbents um trying to stay in power, even though they're voted out of office.
00:08:46
Speaker
I think the fact that 2024 came and went without, and obviously there were trouble in in many places, but obviously it does when you have elections in some 70 countries. um Overall, I think it was a a sort of a authoritarian dog that did not bark.
00:09:03
Speaker
And that's a sign of of something hopeful as well, that in most places, most of the time, democracy keeps producing results and there is some faith, some trust in in the system and that it keeps on delivering.
00:09:19
Speaker
And Johan, what major trends came to the fore from the 2024s voting patterns?
Risks from Authoritarianism
00:09:26
Speaker
Unfortunately, this is a period when there is some sort of admiration for strongmen, thinking that desperate times calls for desperate measures. We've seen that in lots of places. We've seen it in the United States that there's this...
00:09:40
Speaker
um At least initially a um a boost for people who say that they don't care much for checks and balances and for rule of law and we just want to get action done quickly to get get things done.
00:09:56
Speaker
This unfortunately always reminds me of the old joke about the guy walking into a job interview. And they say, oh, it says here that you're quick at maths. And yeah, yeah, sure I am. So what's 16 times 13?
00:10:09
Speaker
Oh, that's 42. What? 42? That's not even close. No, but it was quick. And that's often the the problem with strongmen, whether they they seize power or they get them through democratic means that...
00:10:25
Speaker
It's often bad maths coming up with quick, simple solutions. History tells us that this is not the way to solve problems. This is the ah way to move about in risky, scary ways.
00:10:39
Speaker
Oxford University has set up a Centre for Democratic Resilience, which it states is a response to tackle pressing issues brought about by growing political polarisation and a rise of populist government movements that pose a assist a significant challenge.
00:10:58
Speaker
Do you believe that we are at stage where proactive measures like this proposed by Oxford University need to be happening? Oh, I absolutely do. I think it's it's essential because freedom and democracy doesn't defend itself by itself automatically. It's not our fate that we're going to have this. We've seen democratic backsliding before. We've seen this in lots of places. And so it has to be defended. We need watchdogs. We need to...
00:11:32
Speaker
look into the risks of how authoritarians so are trying to undermine our our processes, but also domestic ah versions, that the risk of an urbanization of democracies where executives systematically undermine checks and balances and the division of powers in in countries. So I think we need to keep an eye on that. We have to remind people of the stakes involved And we have to fight for it because if if we don't, we might lose it.
00:12:08
Speaker
Your warning of a loss is also echoed by the Economist Intelligence Democracy Index in 2024. The report explained that only 71 of the 167 countries and territories covered by the index are classified as democracies.
00:12:26
Speaker
This is six fewer than in 2014. Also, France, the USA, Italy and South Korea are amongst some previously strong democratic nations that have taken place.
00:12:38
Speaker
downturns. The analysis also gave a stark warning that the problems we discuss are not new, but they have arguably reached a tipping point beyond which it becomes more difficult to resolve them.
00:12:51
Speaker
Do you worry and share this view from The Economist that the regressions we have seen are too far to come back from?
Potential for Democratic Revival
00:12:58
Speaker
Well, I agree that at a certain stage, it's difficult to roll things back.
00:13:04
Speaker
We've seen this with state capture. We've seen this with the dismantling of divisions of power and the rule of law in countries. its It's difficult to sort of rebuild an aquarium out of fish soup.
00:13:19
Speaker
um But I'd also say at the same time, it's it's never really um too late because it's we have it within ourselves to decide how to to move forwards. It's about our choices. It's about what we ah decide to fight for and not.
00:13:38
Speaker
And therefore, it's it's definitely worth doing it. I don't believe in the theory that there's a tipping point beyond which there's there's no hope whatsoever. And even in countries of...
00:13:52
Speaker
that have become more authoritarian or even totalitarian like Russia and China. I think that repression, the repression, the censorship, the attack on any kind of independent forces in the country, that's not usually a sign of of self-confidence. That's usually a sign of them fearing the people. They know that there are ah other forces, that there's pushback, that there is discontent with what they...
00:14:21
Speaker
built And that's why they they move in a repressive direction. We now see the same thing in in Turkey with Erdogan. That does not happen because Erdogan feels safe. It happens because he feels that there is so much opposition to his rule. and And that while we're seeing that repression and we... um are We're saddened by it and we fight against it.
00:14:46
Speaker
ah We should also take some comfort in the fact that the strongmen don't feel safe. The dictators don't feel safe. They know that there are very strong undercurrents that might tip their rule at any time. So at least the authoritarians don't believe in the tipping point beyond which there is no no hope in restoring democracy. So neither should we.
00:15:11
Speaker
You've used the phrase before, democratic backsliding, to describe what we're experiencing at the moment. Why has this process happened? Yeah, why does it happen? I think that, you know, there's nothing linear in history. We always think in the world we're in and the trends that are going on, they will just continue, whether those are good trends or bad trends.
00:15:35
Speaker
That doesn't happen. History tells us that this is quite cyclical. It's... History doesn't repeat itself, but human nature does. And human nature is complex. It but it has a sort of a yeah a hopeful, optimistic...
00:15:52
Speaker
persona of discovery and cooperation and exchange and innovation. That's part of our heritage. But we're also kind of a worried tribal. We are very ah acutely aware of risks and we exaggerate risks, especially coming from other groups, coming from other countries.
00:16:12
Speaker
And this leads to these wild swings in history. Once when we feel safe, we explore and we cross borders and we search out new partners and we make progress. But once we're scared, we retreat home. There's this individual, you know, fight or flight instinct. When you face a risk or an enemy or predator, you fight it or you flee.
00:16:41
Speaker
I think it's the same thing on a societal level. When you're worried about the world, when you think everything is going to the dogs, you fight or you you flee. You arm yourself or you flee back to the cave. You build walls against people, against trade and exchange.
00:16:58
Speaker
um And that, I think, explains why there is this temptation to go with the strongmen who say they'll protect us, they'll protect They'll deal with our enemies and they'll build the walls to to protect us. Unfortunately, the problems in the world are too complex to just fight or flee.
00:17:16
Speaker
ah The problems, whether they be you know global warming or ah problems with economic productivity or or with our culture, are complex and they take more responsibility. knowledge and more innovation to solve. we You can't fight your way to that. You have to cooperate, you have to innovate, you have to to solve these problems.
00:17:39
Speaker
um And that's why it's so incredibly important with open societies, where it which make those things possible. um But this is one reason why I think we're going in the wrong direction, why we have this democratic backsliding. and When people panic, they yeah they make um desperate and bad
Solutions for Democratic Resilience
00:17:57
Speaker
moves.
00:17:57
Speaker
How do we fight that? Well, probably partly by trying to solve these problems, trying problems trying to rebuild trust in democratic and open systems to explain what's at stake, that this is nothing we can take for granted. It's a historical exception that we've had these open societies and it's worth fighting for.
00:18:18
Speaker
And also, I think, have a little bit of patience, because one thing we do know about authoritarian ideas, populist ideas, is the The worst and the best thing about them is that they don't work.
00:18:30
Speaker
And in the long run, they disappoint the people who put them into those powerful positions. And that's an excellent opportunity to point to those failures and explain that we We don't want quick maths, we want correct maths.
00:18:45
Speaker
and And that takes a little bit more patience because that has to grow from civil society, from open economies and from more people being involved using their local knowledge and individual creativity.
00:19:00
Speaker
If we can get that done, i'm I would be hopeful for the future. Now to finish up, some people may feel inclined to read your book to learn the lessons of peak humankind.
00:19:12
Speaker
So could you give us an insight into your latest release and when it will be released? Yeah, Peak Human will be published in Britain and Europe in the 1st of May.
00:19:25
Speaker
And it is... I've tried to identify the eras in human history where we actually, for a brief moment in time, managed to escape this nasty, brutish and short experience of of life and had tremendous...
00:19:43
Speaker
cultural creativity, economic progress, technological innovation, and at least relative to what came before and after, a yeah more of tolerance and of of freedom. So from ancient Athens and onwards to um Abbasid Baghdad to Egypt,
00:20:01
Speaker
And obviously, Rome will be there as well. um Looking at China under the Song Dynasty and the Italian Renaissance and so on. What are the lessons we can draw? how What made this possible?
00:20:13
Speaker
um Because it happened in few places, but when it happened, it surprised and stunned the world. And we keep on talking about it. 2000 years later. um And this is all related to this openness to new ideas, to surprises, a relative, at least to what came before, more rule based societies with less ah possibility for individual rulers to govern arbitrarily and and and just ah do whatever they like. And that unleashed these periods of creativity.
00:20:49
Speaker
But they were hard to sustain in the long run. And I'm looking into that. Why did all these cultures have a sort of a death to Socrates moment when they began to doubt that this intellectual openness is a good thing.
00:21:03
Speaker
And just like democratic Athens sentenced Socrates, its greatest philosopher to death, many other cultures did the same thing when they became worried and afraid of the world.
00:21:14
Speaker
They began to rebuild walls and they began to rebuild orthodoxies and they began to hand over powers to a few people at the top thinking that they would save them. But that was in fact what undermined those eras.
00:21:32
Speaker
And then obviously we're we're going to have to draw some lessons, some conclusions for our own moment in time from these episodes. That's what I'm writing about. Well, thank you again for your time today, Johan.
00:21:45
Speaker
It was a real pleasure to speak to you and hear your opinions on the state of democracy at the moment. We hope to speak to you again in the future for more insights. But for now, we all eagerly await Johan Nolberg's latest release, Peak Human.
00:21:59
Speaker
So thanks again, Johan. Thank you, Jason. My pleasure. Thank you.
00:22:14
Speaker
The Observations podcast has been brought to you by Democracy Volunteers, the UK's leading election observation group. Democracy Volunteers is non-partisan and does not necessarily share the opinions of participants in the podcast.
00:22:27
Speaker
It brings the podcast to you to improve knowledge of elections, both national and international.