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WCAD 4-22: Gustavo Alfaro's Never-ending handkerchief
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Austin and Amit recap another fantastic performance from the USMNT, then revel in the joy of Paraguay's unexpected win over Türkiye before recapping Morocco's 1-0 win over a very game-theoried Scotland and Brazil's comfortable 3-0 result against Haiti. Plus, Hervé Renard's Prestige audition is set for Saturday night.
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Transcript
Introduction and USA's World Cup Performance
00:00:01
Speaker
So it's a World Cup podcast with two American guys on it. You think there's really only one place for us to start this show today. The USA played at the World Cup. That's got to be where our first reaction is.
00:00:14
Speaker
But no, because we're just coming off the Gustavo Alfaro magician, the magic trick. It's all good. mean, he pulls a rabbit out of the hat in the first minute. And then for the next 89 minutes, he just starts pulling the world's longest handkerchief. And you never know when it's going end.
00:00:30
Speaker
What a magician. That's the World Cup After Dark special Paraguay Turkey delivered. And i don't normally put the plug at the top of the podcast, but if you you listen to the the Patreon, or actually at the end of last episode, you would have known that ah we were really circled in on this match. I think it's fitting for World Cup After Dark to have such a delightful finish to a great Friday of action.
USA vs. Australia Tactical Analysis
00:00:51
Speaker
This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. He is Amit Malik. My name is Austin Miller. You said it. We we we touched on this Paraguay game. We had a Patreon-only preview of the USA game. I think we hit a lot on that preview. Look, our our record is continually going positive in this tournament.
00:01:05
Speaker
Your dark horses are through. They've won the group. You've got to be feeling good. You have to be feeling good. And you look at the draw for the United States coming up, feeling real good about ah the the track ahead for the United States. I will say, you know, i think I was wrong and perhaps a lot of people were wrong about Turkey. And we're going to talk about them and what went wrong for them later in this show. um Certainly some some luck involved. But outside of that, I mean, we've really, really hit a lot of the things we we picked out, right?
00:01:33
Speaker
And I think the biggest hit that we've had so far is you were very high on this U.S. team. And that's where we have to actually start the show once we've got the Gustavo Alfaro bit out of the way. We'll get back to that. I promise there'll be plenty to be done on that.
00:01:46
Speaker
USA to Australia, Neil, no Christian Pulisic for the U.S. I think this was a less fluid performance than we saw against Paraguay, but it was nonetheless impressive in that for three quarters of this match, they pretty much took Australia out of the game.
00:02:02
Speaker
And for the quarter of the game that Australia tried to be in the game, they never really threatened with any sort of danger. A hundred percent. This was an interesting one because, you know, Pulisic isn't playing. i think Pochettino's known. He's kind of had a week to prepare. And the question you're asking is, do I get on another guy to do some of the stuff he does like as a winger, like a Brendan Aronson or ah maybe a Tim Wea or what he ends up doing is puts in striker Ricardo Pepe as a second striker alongside Balogun. He's kind of playing some version of a five, three, two, um Because he's thinking, look, I just saw what Australia did to Turkey. They're going to sit back with a bunch of blocks. they're not going to try to play the ball.
00:02:43
Speaker
I want the second striker in the box so I can really get two guys pressuring their back line. ah I don't think Pochettino was influenced by what Jesse Marsh did, but similar line of thinking, right? You're going play a team that's defensive a lot, and then you're going to really just try to to put pressure on with strikers. What also made this interesting was the changes on the other side, right? And I think Tony Popovic leaves out his clearly his most dynamic attacker, Nestor Irokunda from the game one win, who totally surprised Turkey with it with his pace and a great finish. And I think you and I know what Tony Popovic was trying to do with this this decision, right?
00:03:19
Speaker
But very clearly, as this game starts, Australia really are missing a player like him, especially when we see him and what he does. Yeah, so I think Popovic is definitely trying to set up a situation where they kind of withstand the punches early from the U.S. They stay nil-nil. Maybe they're a goal down. And then Iron Kuna gets to come on and run at more tired legs. That, I think, is the cloud in the sky goal here for Popovic. It just doesn't really work. They get a chance in the first minute of this game. That's an absolute gift. And then they don't really get a chance for the next hour.
00:03:51
Speaker
Pretty much. And I think anyone, ourselves included, telling you what's what's the number one thing you're circling on the preparation for this game. Oh, it's Irokunda versus Reem. Reem is slow. Irokunda is fast. Can we get that in space? We see this exact foot race at one point in the second half. And Tim Reem was going the wrong direction. Like, I feel like you want this...
00:04:14
Speaker
your best thing versus their weakness more, right? I get the the whole point of like, you're trying to get a scenario where it's maximized and you're trying to survive. And even if you're down one zero and you're Australia and then you bring them on, you you might be in a position to chase that point.
00:04:32
Speaker
But it just felt a bit too conservative from Tony Popovic in Australia, right? And the U.S. s was was pretty much unthreatened. now Now, look, goals change his games, right? Tony Popovic is thinking, ah my block is is pretty tight. His block was pretty tight. We're not going to give up an easy goal. They defended pretty well.
00:04:53
Speaker
But everything looks silly once you're now down one and you have nothing. And that's where the U.S. also kept their foot on the gas for the remainder of that first half. Yeah, so the first 10 minutes, the U.S. get another early opener. It's the same formula, really, against Paraguay. It's another own goal that's created by U.S. pressure. Once again, it's Florian Valligan who gets down the left, and he just really leaves Italiano and Zarkati, two of the Australian defenders, in the dust.
00:05:18
Speaker
Ricardo Pepe is in the box. Balogun plays a good ball across. There's two Australian defenders there. And one of them, Cam Burgess, lumps it into his own net with Pepe sitting on his shoulder. This is the dynamic play that we saw from Balogun in the first game. It's Balogun again. This guy, as we've said, is game-changingly good for the U.S. And look, I know Christian Pulisic is probably their best player.
00:05:41
Speaker
I think Balogun might be their most important play. his movement in the channels is electric. And i want to talk about the tactics in a little bit for the the United States. Like we're not the the biggest tactics podcast out there, but you listening, you hear us. We talk about it all the time. And the the whole thing was the Pentagon, right? the The two midfielders, the striker, and then the two wingers and the way they're interchanging to create space in the channels for the center backs to hit them into. i thought Ream and Freeman and, you know, a little bit of Richards were very good at this in the first game. Now you don't have Pulisic. That's what we're saying. What happens when you need to replace him? We put in a striker.
00:06:19
Speaker
So then what ends up happening is Balogun, the main striker from game one, is the guy who's now floating out left to get in this channel. This is a really smart piece of play, right? The United States is trying to get its wingbacks up the field to pull the Australian wingbacks away from the channel, open it up.
00:06:36
Speaker
And this is where... this is normally what you would expect a winger to do, right? And Balogun is that dynamic, that fast, that he totally rinses the the Australian back line for pace, gets the ball back across. I mean, as you and I were talking about, like how many nines are making this play? Well, there's really not that many. I mean, i think Kylian Mbappe is a type of guy that does it. And we're not saying there're they're similar level of players, but in terms of that movement, that ability to go anywhere on the front line and create havoc with that kind of movement. A lot of nines are just asked to say centrally. To your point, this whole thing falls apart without him. I think the system is really predicated his movement. So much so that I think even 60 minutes, you could see his legs were feeling it too because he's really demanding. There's demanding a lot out of him in the system.
00:07:23
Speaker
So the Australian approach is pretty much got, right? It's gotten in the first 10 minutes. And so they go down a goal, but I think probably fairly wisely. They don't come out of their shell at that point. You've committed to this approach. There's no point in opening yourselves up and just allowing the US to run at you for 80 minutes. And so it feels like the rest of the first half is largely just Australia trying to hang on keep this at a goal, let those legs come in and run when they can. The U S creates a couple more chances. They're all over it. Australia really does nothing going back the other way. They don't trouble the U S and Australia. admit, they almost get this to halftime, but the U S work a shot from a set piece. It gets deflected and it's Freeman. Who's there to bang home a header.
00:08:03
Speaker
So Gino Dest is the one who gets the shot. It's a quarter routine that like, This is the classic FIFA video game corner, right? Where there's a guy sitting at the edge of the box and you pass it back to him and shoots and it never works on the video game.
00:08:15
Speaker
But it worked here because Australia didn't pay attention to Dest. And so the ball comes back across. He has a lot of space to get into and shoot. His shot doesn't get through, but it's deflected. And in kind of the mess of this chaos, the Australian defenders are still working their way back towards the ball. And Freeman does a really good job of ah delaying his run to chase after the deflected header that he's able to stay on side.
00:08:36
Speaker
And he heads it home for two nil. Again, if you're going to play this organized defensive style, this just isn't a goal that you can concede. The first one you understand is a a dynamic play from a really good attacker. Those types of things happen.
00:08:49
Speaker
But this type of set piece situation where A, Dest probably shouldn't be this wide open, and B, Freeman probably shouldn't be played onside. Those two things combined, it's 2-0.
00:09:01
Speaker
It's again the U.S. taking advantage of their opportunities. It's also very good scouting from Pochettino and his staff on set pieces that this kind of shot would be available. To your point, like what types of shots can you get on a set piece? And a lot of teams will conclude that like if you can get a top of the box shot into traffic. It's ah its a pretty good look.
00:09:22
Speaker
I think Australia's set piece of set piece defensive organization where it's a flat line of everyone back like got exposed. And I think it was probably way too predictable because that's generally how Australia defend all the time, right? They're a little too happy to drop off. And I think it's kind of... a ah I'm putting an air quote, it's one-trick pony from Popovic in a sense. like He's got one move with his guys. Hope we get them all back. Look, it's really effective until you beat it once, then he is you know drawn dead. Then you beat it twice because you've found a way to expose it in the space that it vacates. So I think the first half was really, really complete
00:10:00
Speaker
control I don't want to say dominance, but complete control from the United States of the pace of the game. And also you have to give credit to Chris Richards, to Freeman defensively, to Adams defensively, who whenever Australia tried to get stuff forward, it was immediately snuffed out. And again, they didn't really have any outlets to go over the top without a player like Irokunda.
00:10:20
Speaker
Really big miss that you fell in the first half. You have to also give credit, I think, to Weston McKinney and Malik Tillman. Great in the midfield, but especially McKinney in... We're talking about on that left side, Balogun making that channel run. McKinney was super high up the field, and I thought USA's best progression was him exactly hanging out in that that Pentagon half space between Dest and the striker. it was really good. I mean...
00:10:45
Speaker
There is something to Pochettino, I think now twice, has gotten the tactics exactly right for his opponent. And he's ah good X's and O's guy. And I think we said on this podcast, like, is he going to bring his chops to this team? Is he going to get the most out of his team?
00:11:01
Speaker
I think through two games, it's a resounding, like, yeah, he's doing good stuff to elevate the players who are good too. Like, I feel like every United States fan has to be really happy with what they've seen. And this is exactly what you brought Pochettino in to do, right? And this is exactly the type of situation where he can really thrive because it's not the game after game after game after game grind of a club football season where you're playing every three days, you're playing every four days. The U.S. had a week to prepare for this game. right That is so much time to put together an opposition report, to put together a scout and to come up with it. You knew that you were playing Australia for six months, right? There's so much data that you can build. I'm sure that they have profiles on all of the potential third place teams they could now play in the round of 32.
00:11:45
Speaker
This is why you have Pochettino in is this is his bread and butter, right? Like this is what he does best as a manager. And in two games so far, yeah, he's hitting 100%. He's hitting it out of the park. It's exactly what the U.S. s needed. And he'd done it so well that third game in the group stage isn't even going to matter for the U.S.
00:12:03
Speaker
So we go into halftime. Tony Popovic obviously makes the changes coming out. He had to. He's down two goals. Here on Kunda, Metcalf and Garia come on. Australia were better, but they still weren't great. It was a pretty choppy second half. I didn't think Australia ever really got that close. They got the U.S. on the back foot a bit. They tried to play a little bit of mixer ball, never really with a ton of success. It's a really physical half. There's a lot of of flails and dives and challenges and fouls and some yellow cards and situations. We'll touch on the U.S. yellow cards in a second.
00:12:33
Speaker
But in this second half, I thought it was a controlled performance from the U.S. Look, you're not going to run up the score three or four goals in every single game in a World Cup group stage. When you're two goals up, I thought this was a pretty good approach.
00:12:45
Speaker
Could Pochettino have made some better subs at various points? Sure. But I think that's very nitpicky for this performance. You took a team that took a team out of the game in the first game and you went and you beat him 2-0.
00:12:57
Speaker
Two thumbs up. That's the performance you needed. I think so. I think if it's not 2-0, if it's just 1-0, the changes look different. And I think he plays Australia bit different. You knew the kind of changes you were getting from Pupovic at halftime, as you said.
00:13:12
Speaker
i think he just kind of let his guys manage the game pretty well. There was one or two moments where it felt a little bit too disconnected in that the United States was trying to build up with like only four or five guys back when Australia was finally, finally pressing. it was like hey guys, we we need some possession stability back here. And you could tell once Balogans and Pepe's legs went a little bit, keeping the ball was harder.
00:13:36
Speaker
But generally, defensively, the work rate from from just about everyone meant that Australia had nothing easy. They had to labor very hard just to get chances. i think there's one moment here where, again, Aaron Kundo in a moment of transition gets reamed, totally rants. And even then, Richards recovers and it's a shot from...
00:13:53
Speaker
12 yards out that that goes over. Australia not really getting anything quality here. They just did not have a secondary chance creator or even a good target in the box, right, to to aim at. So pretty comfortable for 2-0. Like, even if Australia got one, when would they have needed to get one to really threaten it? Like, with 10 minutes to go, and it didn't really feel like that. um This is why you get two, right? I think that first half just set them up to...
00:14:20
Speaker
kind of cruise control it about it as good as you could have hoped i think it was interesting that the reamir and guna play you mentioned it didn't end up in anything but you could tell the the gears were turning in tim ream's head it was like all right i have two options here i can either step back and try to chase this guy that's probably not going to work or i can try and step up and play him offside and that didn't work that's what he tried to do and it didn't work and look that's a situation that you just don't want to see tim reeman and it's something that the u.s is going to have to handle eventually at some point in this tournament um i thought the u.s defended set pieces really well that that was a place that we thought australia could maybe give them trouble and they really just didn't um through two games we haven't seen a ton of matt freeze in goal that still feels like it might be the weakest link for this team it hasn't been tested so far um
00:15:08
Speaker
But yeah, I think the set piece defense was
USA's Group Stage Success and Future Prospects
00:15:10
Speaker
huge for the U.S. I mentioned the yellow cards. Baligan, Richards, Robinson, all cautioned in this game for the U.S. I put in the notes that they would have to be careful against Turkey 8. Now that Turkey is out of the tournament, they won't be careful at all because there's no chance those guys are playing. They were to pick up another yellow card. They would then be suspended for the round of 32 match. It's a complete dead rubber for the U.S. There is nothing at stake. They have won the group. Turkey are already eliminated.
00:15:33
Speaker
You're not taking a chance with anybody. Christian Pulisic gets another week plus to heal up for the round of 32. I think that's a plus for this side. They'll get squad rotation. That's a plus for this side. It'll probably be the Gio Reyna show, which is maybe a plus for this side.
00:15:48
Speaker
The vibes and the rest advantages um are are just huge from this game. And I think... just the fact that Mexico did this too, but the fact that the United States have won the group two match days in um compared to the conversations we were having just a few weeks ago.
00:16:06
Speaker
And you look at this group and... I think we were saying, is this group easier or harder because of the makeup of the group? And I think we settled somewhere in between. Like, yes, there's no big dog that you have to play a tough game against, but your third and fourth place teams are maybe a little bit tougher than you expect.
00:16:21
Speaker
Look at what happens to Turkey, right? It can be, you can absolutely get gotten two games here. So I think generally, yes, maybe down the line, we'll look and say, Paraguay for one, Australia two zero. Like they beat some teams that they could beat.
00:16:35
Speaker
Well, good good job that they did and won the dang group. Like Turkey couldn't. So I think you just have to be very, very, very pleased from the United States standpoint. And now, honestly, the the expectations are her very, very high. I think the United States have put a lot of not pressure, but they've, you know, earned themselves that little bit of dreaming that you can get when you get everyone behind this team a little bit, they've played exciting. They played ugly, the managers managing well,
00:17:05
Speaker
it's It's all going it's all going a little too good at this point. Yeah, I think the thing that's interesting is I don't know if it's because the expectations are high, but the ceiling is high. And that's what you're looking for at a World Cup, right? The ceiling for this team is high. And like Chris Richards postgame said, it's not ridiculous for the U.S. to win the World Cup. And like that, I think, is the perfect attitude to have right now. They have been one of like the top five teams in this tournament so far just on the performances that they've put in. You look at the path that's ahead of them now that they've won the group. Their first game is going to be against a third place team.
00:17:39
Speaker
The most likely outcome is that that third place team is a third place team from group B, which means it is Bosnia or Qatar. That's as good of around a 32 matchup as you can hope for. If it's not one of those teams, if those two teams draw, then we'll see what that matchup ends up being. There's a chance it could be the Ecuador culture. wall group, but that is the most likely matchup at this point.
00:17:59
Speaker
And then the matchup in the round of 16, right? You're looking at, as we've said from the start of the tournament, the winner of the Belgium group, which is probably going to be Belgium, but can still be something like Egypt or Iran. And the other team is going to be a third place team. And that could really be anybody still at this point, but the path to the quarterfinals for this us team wonderful. wide open. And that means that their ceiling can be a world cup semifinal. It can be making the world cup. wide Is that likely? Of course not. No, that's not the most likely outcome here, but there's no reason why they can't.
00:18:32
Speaker
A hundred percent. And at this point, I mean, it's a small sample, but we're getting to the point where if it's USA Belgium round of 16 back in Seattle, I was coming into this tournament thinking Belgium would be favored.
00:18:45
Speaker
i mean, do you feel like it might be USA favored in the odds? It's a toss up. Yeah, I think it's a toss up. And look, like, I think that's a difficult question because public odds will be juiced by the USA, like just naturally. It's like getting a fair read on what the actual spread should be will kind of be difficult. But yeah, there's look, the the performances that we've seen so far from those teams, I know who I think I'd pick in that game, right? It's not Belgium. ah One final thing for me on this game. i mean, I get asked this question all the time, right?
00:19:16
Speaker
Like, oh, you're in Argentina at the World Cup. What's the atmosphere like? What's it like for Argentina? So so I'd like to turn the page here for you. i know a rare public appearance from Malik today. You went out, you watched the U.S. s game. How was it?
00:19:29
Speaker
It was good. i think even in Chicago, wherem where I'm based, obviously, I think a bit sad not to have the World Cup in Chicago, understanding you know it's not just a soccer decision. There's FIFA involved. There's city governments involved. This was done by the previous mayor, Rahm Emanuel, and there's stadium infrastructure involved. Okay, that's out of the way.
00:19:48
Speaker
ah My point is that I would have been very happy to have the World Cup in Chicago, me personally, but that's just personally. The atmosphere was still incredible. I think just a lot of people outside on Friday on Juneteenth and a lot of people just really engaged with the team and really locked in watching even at a watch party. I think you're seeing this all over the country. And I think what you're seeing is that this team is really easy to root for. You don't necessarily know soccer. and You turn it on You go man, that guy Dest is cooking. Man, Richards wins every duel. Man, Adams wins every duel. That Balogun, oh my gosh, he's he's really, really electric. And look, again, they've beaten Paraguay and Australia, two teams they should look good against if they're good.
00:20:27
Speaker
But it has been a whole hard wholehearted success. And I think the the vibes just for the average, I think, casual fan is like really, really locked in on this being the best like vibes of our lifetime since 2002. And even then, i don't think anyone expected that team necessarily to be a quarterfinalist. That was kind of ahead of schedule. So has it ever matched up like the talent and the expectations like like it has for this team? I don't think so.
00:20:55
Speaker
No, I don't think so. In 2002 is weird because that was a World Cup that was happening in the middle of the night, right? Like that's a Japan-South Korea World Cup. The time zones don't really vibe. I think the closest comparison is probably 2010 when you get the Landon Donovan goal. But that was more just an incredible moment, more so than an incredible performance is being strung together like we've seen so far. So yeah, look, the ceiling is very high for this team. It's going to be a while before we get like...
00:21:20
Speaker
to the point where it's actually going to be tested again now that they've got a free group stage. But yeah, they're where they want to be so far. The other thing, we just have to you know toss another line now to our our friend of the podcast, Henry Bushnell, who was very, very much on USA Australia at Seattle at Lumen Field being hot, hot ticket.
00:21:39
Speaker
And i think for anyone watching, it was very clear what a special atmosphere that was as well. Look, all the home atmospheres have been just really delighted by. But for the United States especially, I think Seattle is such an important soccer city. like It was electric.
00:21:54
Speaker
And the potential quarterfinal being, or ah yeah, round of 16 match being there for the US. Yeah, that's huge, huge as well. it would be a huge, massive advantage. The other game in this group of it was the After Dark special that we alluded to at the start of the show.
Paraguay vs. Turkey Match Analysis
00:22:10
Speaker
Gustavo Faro did the call the ambulance, but it's not for me, bit. This team was dead. They were down in the water. They'd been so bad. Everybody was piling on. This team sucks. Wow, terrible, terrible Paraguay. Turkey are going to cut right through them.
00:22:24
Speaker
And they just turn the table and they put a vintage Gustavo Alfaro Paraguay performance in. Matias Galarza pulls a rabbit out of the hat. Literally 64 seconds into this game. It's an early giveaway from the Turks. It's liquid football from Paraguay.
00:22:42
Speaker
Cubas and CISO layoff. Galarza, bang, 1-0. And they made it stick for 9,100 minutes. However many minutes this game went, they were going to make it stick. And Turkey was just going to keep attempting to score and was never going to find the back of net. And they can still be playing and Turkey probably still wouldn't have scored.
00:23:00
Speaker
It just was completely snakebitten for Turkey. It was so funny. And yeah, this goal is is great football early, but it's like a shot from 24 yards out that like, yeah,
00:23:12
Speaker
it's perfectly placed. It's perfectly placed. it's Yeah, I'm not going to say it should have been saved. Like, I know the speed isn't the most, but it's right in the corner. And it's like, that is exactly the hallmark of what gustaro Gustavo Alfaro was doing in qualifying. Finding goals in weird spots at low moments. And we kind of have said, like, I can't keep getting away with it. And he did. But to Alfaro's credit, you hand the man a one goal lead and his guys just locked in. I thought Australia's defending against Turkey last week was was very disciplined and organized. And the Paraguay brand of defending is another level of, sure, yes, it is both, but they just like psychologically eat at you to make you feel the pressure in a way that Australia do, but not quite. like It's the bite of everything that they did. And I'm with you.
00:24:05
Speaker
at so At a certain point, I feel like you could see the dread on Turkey's players' faces because at some point they realize, oh my gosh, we're down. We're trying. It's not working. If it doesn't work, we're out.
00:24:19
Speaker
Let's try harder. It's still not working. And like the cycle of despair, denial, it was really, really tough to see in real time. As any good magician will do, Alfaro didn't make it easy for himself, right? he He tied a hand behind his back at one point in this game. And so right kind of on halftime. So the first half follows a pretty specific pattern. Both teams are stuck in. There's a lot of fouls. There's a lot of flops. Turkey are doing their we have no nines. There's no chances bit. ah They hit the post once on a kind of weird chance because, of course, they do.
00:24:50
Speaker
Farguire dangerous on the counter. Cosser has had a good chance saved and it just really felt like something was going to happen. You could feel this simmering and reaching a boiling point. Players were pretty consistently trying to draw cards on the opposition. The ref, Yvonne Barton, who's a CONCACAF favorite is like just kind of adding to the spectacle. of it all. I think it's fair to say. And so what happens, there needs to be the flops looking for a call that the Turkish players are pretty upset with that. They go after him. It's kind of the fourth or fifth time that it's like simmering to the point of kicking off.
00:25:23
Speaker
And Miguel Almarone gets into confrontation with Merrick Mulder and he does what a lot of soccer players have done over the the years and he covers his mouth to insult him. Except that you can't do that anymore. After the whole Vinicius Jr. Prestiani case that happened, FIFA came out and said, no more covering your mouth in a confrontational situation. If you do that, it's an automatic red card.
00:25:43
Speaker
Well, that's what Miguel Hummeron did. So it's an automatic red card. I think you can argue admit that this is harsh, that it's maybe harsh to change this rule and have it be so punitive in such a manner.
00:25:54
Speaker
But also the rule is fundamentally clear. If you cover your mouth in a confrontational situation, it is a red card. And to be completely frank, you just have to be better. You can't do it.
00:26:05
Speaker
You just can't. I think so. you I'm with you. it The consequences are so dire. And look, if you make the rule and you don't enforce it, what is the point?
00:26:17
Speaker
What is the point? And that's where, yeah, I think Ivan Barton made ah made a show of himself today as the referee, as he's wont to do. And he has been involved in some wacky USA games over the years.
00:26:30
Speaker
But you throw CONCACAF... a specifically ah voodoo-y Paraguay from Kamabal, and Turkey are just the right team to get involved in this cocktail. Yeah, you could have seen this coming, right? I mean, I don't think we're going to know. Maybe some reporting will come out in in the time after this of what Almiron says.
00:26:49
Speaker
ah Do I think it was necessarily in the spirit of the rule? I don't know if we'll ever say, but you just can't do it. You just can't. It's a bummer. But to to bar his credit, right, as you said, it just ups the difficulty level. They're kind of even motivated by it, I think, a little bit more.
00:27:08
Speaker
So they take off pizza at halftime. They bring on Boadilla. And then the second half. Turkey bring on Yilmaz for a Turk loose. So now they've kind of taken off their nominal nine and they're just throwing attackers on left and right.
00:27:19
Speaker
At the hour mark, they bring on Dennis Gould, who's a player that we had kind of been asking for. And I think to Montella's credit, we kind of saw why Dennis Gould was not starting in this game because his performance here was not great. um And so by the end of this, Turkey just have every single attacking player they can on.
00:27:40
Speaker
They're able to get to within like 25, 30 yards, and then they just can't really do anything. and they don't really know what to do at various points. They're trying shots from distance that don't work. They're trying crosses that don't work. They had a couple of clear ish chances that don't end in goals, but it just felt like it was never going to happen.
00:27:59
Speaker
It did. And i think the biggest criticism is yes, they shot too many times from distance, right? You put up 25, 30 shots and you're only getting one 1.5 XG in an individual game. The quality of those shots aren't enough, but even then they get goal a header, right? They get goal, a few headers that he's just not very good on. And I'm not sure if some of these counted or shots or not, but I Goulair does his best to get like some balls across the box and Gould is just not on the timing or the wavelength to get to these balls, get across this guy at the right time.
00:28:33
Speaker
And i think you said it best, like Turkey didn't know what to do. They looked like a team that had never seen how to unlock a low block with the personnel it had. Did they come to this World Cup thinking it was going to be a bit more open than it was? What did you think Australian Park were going to throw at you, man? Like you have to watch these teams for 10 minutes to figure out what's coming.
00:28:56
Speaker
Yeah, and that's... I think it's it's a tough one. Exactly what's tough is that what you said. like Ghoul was this the the striker to fit the mold, and he was so poor that they probably actually should have played the other strikers. But when you can't cross and the other team knows it, you're just really one-dimensional. And so, I mean...
00:29:22
Speaker
I think the way the the math works is like at the end of the day, to to put up 3.5 XG in two games to not score, to get punked on the two goals they got punked on, right?
00:29:34
Speaker
One's in the first minute on a shot from distance. The other is a direct counter and then also a shot from distance. I think if you play these two games again, the ah The scenarios where Turkey comes through with zero points and zero goals is very, very low. It is not the bell curve. It is the left tail. This is the worst outcome.
00:29:52
Speaker
But... it's the World Cup. It's not a 38-game spreadsheet. It's not an XG-like aggregated, like, oh, you're, you know, it's it's the anecdotally, yeah, we were better, but we had very, very massive flaws that got exposed in very big ways. And I don't think arrogant is the right word. I don't think Turkey were arrogant. They very clearly were upset at what happened. I think they just kind of lacked the respect and urgency for these two opponents in in a way like that you kind of saw Calhanoglu say before the Australia game. I think they thought these two games would be easier than they were and they got exposed and this team truthfully was fun at the Euros because they could do all this stuff. It's a different level when I maybe to your point like did they see this before? i don't think they've seen defenses like do this level. People don't do this outside of this level.
00:30:47
Speaker
And I think it's kind of comes down to the fact that they needed one guy to make a play. Like you just needed something to happen. And whether that's kind of ugly, whether that's Gouler, whether that that's Yildiz who started in this game, you know, whether it was it was somebody off the bench, whether it was Gould, like they just needed someone to make a play. They needed someone to win one-on-one. They needed someone to win and do something one-on-two. And they just never got that at any point in these two games.
00:31:12
Speaker
Gullier tries his best in the second game. I thought he really took it upon himself to try to create something, but Paraguay sending him a double team that, you know, he's got to beat a guy and get help. And that's where like, yes, we're, we're analyzing the game as best we can. The dread was real.
00:31:27
Speaker
You could see it. Like it was like, okay, one guy put his hand up. I'm going to try, but no one else put their hand up to be like, I want this chance. It kept being like, Oh, he missed. Oh, he missed.
00:31:38
Speaker
It comes to me. What am I going to do? going to miss. Like there was no sense of belief. Like ah a that's, that's like not really fair, but it did. Did did it feel that way? Didn't it?
00:31:49
Speaker
Yeah. Well, and then you just juxtapose it with what you get on the other side where Pargwire is just oozing confidence, right? They're just, we're up for this. You take four, we'll put, we'll play you 11 on eight and we'll still stop you. Right? Like that was the type of the energy you got. i think it was very telling, right? Turkey's best chance in this game is probably a header for Merrimer, who's one of their center backs right at the end.
00:32:09
Speaker
Finally, they win an aerial battle. He rises high. He gets his head to it. It just flashes wide. and You can just see his reaction. Just he's crestfallen, right? He's just like literally almost to the point of tears because he knows that that was probably it.
00:32:23
Speaker
And that just kind of summed this game up for them. You mentioned it a bit. Nearly 3.5 XG in the two games. They had 62 shots in two games and they were just looking for one passing move, one cross to come off. And it just never did. And because of it, they're going home from the World Cup with a game to spare, which was not, I think, the scenario that any of us had projected. i don't think this classifies as a massive, massive shock, but this is a very surprising result that Turkey are getting dumped in the group stage.
00:32:53
Speaker
It is. I think some people were saying they would top this group over the United States. And Austin raised his hand and said, that was me. And I think... and I was upping Montella a little bit, and i don't want to say he did a horrible job, but I think on the whole, he and his team and his players were one dimensional in a way that perhaps we should have realized that clear flaws, but also don't necessarily have a plan B is a bad recipe.
00:33:22
Speaker
and And that's what happened in this tournament. And that's why they're going home. So the situation in group D going into the last match day is this, the U S have won the group Turkey are eliminated. Australia and Cargoy are both on three points and they will play on the last day.
00:33:35
Speaker
If they draw, both teams would advance with Australia finishing second and Paraguay third. And that is significant because the runner up in this group will play the runner up from the Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand group,
00:33:47
Speaker
Whereas the third place in this group is most likely going to be playing a group winner. It will play a group winner, and that's most likely going to be Germany or France. There is a significant difference between finishing second and finishing third here.
00:33:59
Speaker
Between Australia and Paraguay, the winner will advance, while the loser, if there is a loser, would play the waiting game to see if they would be the in the top eight of the third place table. Australia are better positioned. They have a a zero goal difference going in that game.
00:34:13
Speaker
Paraguay at minus two would mean that if they lost, they'd have at least a minus three. That is probably dicey. It's a very interesting proposition from a Paraguayan perspective. I mean think Australia can be pretty content to play for the draw.
00:34:26
Speaker
The scenario in which Australia does not go through is pretty small, I think. The scenario which Paraguay does not go through is probably potentially if they lose. But if Paraguay are content to see this out for a draw, then they're looking at a very difficult round of 32 matchup. I'm very intrigued to see how these two teams approach it.
00:34:45
Speaker
It's a fascinating question because objectively for your tournament's chances, it is better to try to get in second and have a much more winnable game in the round of 32.
00:34:57
Speaker
But you can't get that game if you're not in. And if you play for the win, then you're in a more open game state. Then you could lose. You could lose a goal differential. Then you could go home.
00:35:07
Speaker
so i and The other thing you could say is you really just need to score once, right? Try to score early once and then you could back off if you don't get it. but What if you're down one and then you don't get, I don't know. i Listen, I think, I think Alfaro will be conservative and say, i see you, Tony. i see your suit. Can you change it a little gray today for me? Like, don't mean business. Let's let's do the gentlemanly draw, let's do the disgrace of Gijón and let's take a point and go to the next round and I'll take my third place chance against Germany or France.
00:35:42
Speaker
like I just feel like Alfaro wants to get to the next round. He does not want to mess with it. i think his team, his persona, like... Of the types of teams and managers that would think this way that I need to beat Australia to get to second place.
00:35:56
Speaker
I don't think it's I don't think it's this type of manager. This is exactly the type of manager. He's like ratchet up the difficulty for the round of 32. I've got a new trick for you. Like, I just don't really see that in the cards. I mean, who what teams would at this point in soccer like would even try this?
00:36:11
Speaker
I mean, I think there's some managers that would consider it and would say like, you know, we're trying to play for the better chances. But like you said, those are going to be more analytically minded managers. And that's not necessarily what Gustavo Alfaro is. And that's not necessarily a knock on him. That's just saying it like it is.
00:36:26
Speaker
His goal is to get out of the group. And the easiest way for them to get out of the group is going to be to draw this game. And that might give them a harder round of 32 matchup.
Morocco vs. Scotland Overview
00:36:32
Speaker
And I think they'll take it right, the other group amid Scotland and Morocco, a 1-0 win for Morocco. This game was kind of weird because Morocco scored in the first minute of this game. It's a great run from Saibari, who scores another goal in this tournament. Just blast it from an angle into the top of the net, an absolute rip.
00:36:51
Speaker
And then there's no goals for the rest this game, which is probably not what we expected when we see a goal in the first 90 seconds. you'd really expect Morocco to get another goal. And I thought this also kind of went the way we talked about it at their preview at the end of our podcast ah earlier today, and that Scotland can hang, they can hang. And even as the game went, I think what you and I said to each other is that, man, you let anyone hang around, they can give you a game for 10 or 15 minutes. Yeah. Even to Australia's credit against the United States, they did it. They were just down two and they didn't get their goal.
00:37:23
Speaker
um I thought Scotland survived really well here. i thought Morocco's interchange on the right wing was their highlight of this game and Saibari's movement was excellent. Their passing was excellent. i think they were just a little bit unlucky in front of goal and Scotland did just enough to throw them off. i think maybe if you have a criticism, they should have tilted the dial a little bit more in the first half, right? For Morocco to try to get the second. It's not that they weren't trying, but they were generally like pretty happy to pass and make Scotland compress. Scotland were doing the Australia thing of stayed with five in the back in the in the first half and really, really sat back deep even after the goal.
00:38:04
Speaker
It's really interesting because Steve Clark, the Scotland manager, chooses to play both Andy Robertson and Kieran Tierney on the left. Tierney's playing this kind of wing-ish role. like They're both on the left for the specific purpose of trying to make life hard for Brahim Diaz.
00:38:22
Speaker
Atraf Hakimi and Boadi, who is that that right side of the Moroccan attack. And it really doesn't work. like's Like you get what he's trying to do. And those guys are just so good that they just kind of leave that behind. And Saibari as well, obviously factors into that equation. They just make life so hard for the players on your left side.
00:38:39
Speaker
i mean, they're just really good on the ball. And what's so tough is that, okay, maybe you can take one of them out for a minute or two, but the other guy will just drop all the way deep to get a ball. And you either have to let him get the ball and give him space to play the ball, or you have to follow him all the way out. And then he if they beat you on the dribble, boom, there's space. And I thought the pass to Saibari from the opening was just really clear warning shot of the quality and talent in this team. Buwadi also, not even quietly, just shredded you know, anyone trying to to take the ball off him, the Moroccan midfield quality in turning and receiving in the half space. Not that many teams are trying to like play through the middle right now. Like it is very much like center back, center back, center back, do it like five times. Morocco are like, no, we can like put the ball where we want. It's really, really silky. Yeah.
00:39:29
Speaker
but they just don't like quite get it off. And that's where Scotland hangs. I think the one thing for Scotland, and we said this on our preview podcast, is Che Adams is not the striker for knockdown target man ball. And yes, he's a better striker than the two Dykes and Shanklin, but the style doesn't work. And I think Scotland are just not getting enough of an outlet in the first half of games where they're playing five in the back. McTominay, I thought, was great in this game.
00:39:57
Speaker
I thought he does as much as he he he can to to help Scotland keep the ball, to you know help guys in attack. I think John McGinn is doing his best. He's huffing and puffing to carry the ball when he can in transition to spar Scotland's attack.
00:40:12
Speaker
It's not that Adams is a bad player. It just doesn't fit, I think. He'd probably be served better as a second striker super stub. You've got to get a target guy on so that you can hit it long for them. i thought that worked for Scotland late.
00:40:24
Speaker
Yeah, well, and the thing with McTominay is until you make the call that you're going for, and he's the guy that's up there winning those long balls, right? Until you've committed to that, he's not going to be in a position where he can win that long ball and knock it down. And so they're just left punting the ball up. And Che Adams isn't enough to win that and keep possession and keep it going. And so with no outlet, what happens is Scotland pump it up. Che Adams loses a battle or gets in a 50-50 ball. And boom, next thing you know, it's two passes. And there they come down the right wing again.
00:40:56
Speaker
And it's just a vicious cycle. And that's why Scotland have to keep five at the back. And it was just, they felt they couldn't escape. um And also I think tough one here is Ben Gannon Doak. I think is Scotland's perhaps X factor on the right. He picks up a knock in game one.
00:41:13
Speaker
if you I think he was probably had a minutes restriction here. Otherwise, i bet you Steve Clark would have wanted him for more of this game. He comes on, and now you start to see McGinn and Scott or Christie and Ganondoke can dribble, and Ganondoke was really effective progressing the ball, which, to your point, allows McTominay, allows Dykes to go up the field and like then hang out or on the box.
00:41:37
Speaker
Scotland also switched to a back four at halftime, generally somewhat. It's still hybrid-y, but thought Clark did really well to keep his team in the game. But a lot of what we're seeing managing-wise is like these salvage jobs to like keep your team in the game. And I think that's kind of the level of international soccer right now for these small teams, smaller teams.
00:41:59
Speaker
But overall, like Scotland get what they want generally in this game, I think, despite the loss. Yeah, I think the game plan from the out is keep it close and at some point we'll go. And it was key for Scotland, right? Their game theory situation, if you will, is that they need to protect their goal differential because they have their three points and we've said all along three minus two is probably the target number. So they're at three plus one coming into this game.
00:42:27
Speaker
So that means they've got three goals that they can give at some point in the next two games against Morocco in Brazil. So they're kind of faced with this calculus at the end of this game of, all right, we're down a goal. What do we do? Do we go for it and risk opening ourselves up and giving up another goal?
00:42:42
Speaker
But knowing that if we do score and we do get a point, we've got four points and that's going to be enough to get through. and I think Clark threaded the needle pretty well here. I think he kept his team back for a decent amount of this game.
00:42:53
Speaker
And then they do kind of slightly get more attacking, right? They bring on Ganondoga, the hour mark, they bring Dykes on 10 minutes later for Che Adams. They allow McTominay to kind of mirage further and further forward. They win a couple of set pieces. They get a couple opportunities, but nothing is ever really that clear. I think Morocco were fairly wasteful at points in this game.
00:43:12
Speaker
That's something that we've now seen in back-to-back games for them against Brazil. That was ah a winnable game for them where they didn't take their opportunities. think that's maybe a concerning thing going forward, but you have to be positively impressed with the style of football that they're playing. And I think Scotland are okay, right? Like they're going into this Brazil game and they know we can probably lose by two goals and be all right. And we can just kind of run this whole entire strategy back.
00:43:40
Speaker
100%. And as we talk about Brazil, I think the thing is Brazil thrive in space. And if you take that away from them, which Scotland are going to do, you'd back yourself not to to give up three goals. I think if you keep it tight, ro Brazil are going to be really labored against a set defense.
00:43:56
Speaker
And I think Morocco... kept it pretty tight, couldn't really do a lot. I think Saibari is great. Saibari is electric, but that first moment is in kind of trend, and not transition, but they free him in space. He doesn't really see space the rest of the game. And I think that's where, to your point, Morocco could use More numbers exactly are on the box. Their progression there is really, really good, but they need just a little bit more oomph, maybe a little bit more finishing. Look, I did think Brahim Diaz was finding his form in this game of just absolutely destroying defenders. So I think it's looking good for Morocco, but at the highest level, you're just asking the question like, we don't one might not be enough, right? was enough for Brazil, could have been not enough against a better team. They're going to need a little bit more going forward.
00:44:43
Speaker
But they do look really, really good. It's fair to say.
Brazil's Dominance in Group Stage
00:44:46
Speaker
All right. The last game to talk about Brazil, a bit is a three-nil win for Brazil against Haiti. This was a fine performance from Brazil, right? Like they got the job done. This is the scoreline that you're looking for. It's a limited Haiti team. Brazil score three goals in the first half. They don't really do anything in the second half. But Isius Jr. was great.
00:45:06
Speaker
Mateus Cunha, who started at the nine in place of Igor Tiago, was great. Rafinha went off injured. That's less than ideal. The midfield of Bruno Guilherme Reis, Casemiro, Lucas Paqueta was good.
00:45:19
Speaker
The defenders weren't really tested. When they were tested, they handled themselves pretty well. I think this is a good performance from Brazil, but I haven't really changed my opinion on them. It's tough to evaluate when Haiti was playing with the high line, was letting Brazil kind of do what they wanted to do which was bypass the midfield completely and hit balls over the top for Vinny, for Rafinha, for Cunha, who I think the one thing you could say from this game has kind of earned his spot on the front line.
00:45:49
Speaker
I think much more dynamic. um It's funny because we're saying play your nines. Cunha's like... not exactly a true bruiser number nine. But what you did see is that then you had three players that could all be vertical.
00:46:02
Speaker
And Brazil don't really want to to put the ball through the midfield. Casemiro doesn't want to turn receive and turn. Bruno Guimari's can, but Paquete doesn't want to either. So instead, you just hit it long over the top and let your three guys run. And what that's going to do is a team is either going to play high and turn backwards and be in a lot, a lot of trouble, like Katie were today,
00:46:25
Speaker
or they're going to have to back up and give Brazil so much space. And then Vinny just walks it into the final third. Then Rafinha just walks it into the final third. Yes, then what is Brazil going to do against the set defense?
00:46:38
Speaker
It's going to be tough, but I think you've now got this game model that we have kind of alluded to all along for Brazil was counter with... four, six, seven, eight guys behind the ball. And then when you come to bring too many guys up because you're trying to get through Gabriel and Marquinhos, boom, Vinny's got you on the other side. So that is very clearly the game model that Ancelotti has found. He is kind of very Madrid-like. He's using the IQ of Vinny. He's using Cunha's IQ.
00:47:06
Speaker
It's not like Igor Tiago is a bad player. He's just more of like a stand centrally and the ball feeds him to number nine. I think Brazil now with three guys moving can ask a lot more questions. Yeah, like there was way too much space between defenders from Haiti. That's the one thing you can say. Like, you know, I think they were going to do what they're going to do in this game. They're Haiti. It's okay. But it's dangerous when Brazil has that much space. Yeah, so Haiti kind of are able to knock it around a little bit and in the opening part of this match, and it looks kind of impressive. And look, that's what they are. They're never going to be a sit back and defend and bunker team. That's just never been their game state. That's not what got them to the World Cup. That was not what was going to get them out of this group.
00:47:49
Speaker
um And Brazil kind of slowly but surely pick up the press and right near the the first half water timeout. ah Brazil asked Ricardo Ade, the Haiti shouldn't center back to make a pass, and he does not. Mateus Cunha steals the ball back the other way. It's a snapshot from Anacis Jr. that saved and Mateus Cunha is first to the rebound. That's one nil.
00:48:09
Speaker
And then Brazil kind of just get it going for the rest of the half, right? Lucas Pagatau wins possession. It's a brilliant pass from Anacis Jr. And it's two from Anacis Cunha. And then right on halftime, it's Vinny who gets the third. Again, it's an attacking run that that just puts Haiti in trouble.
00:48:23
Speaker
Paqueta was a really good ball over the top. Paqueta was much better today than he was against Morocco. Obviously, a different level of opposition, but I think that's a good sign for Brazil. And Vinny gets on the end of the ball 3-0.
00:48:34
Speaker
I think Brazil took the foot off the gas in the second half. They probably could have scored more here, and they didn't. That might matter as far as who finishes first in this group. But also, when you look at the actual matchup, there's actually not a huge... huge difference between finishing first and second in this group as far as what comes in the round of 32 and what comes to the round of 16. We'll touch on that in a second. a bit Haiti had a bit of joy. They played their style, but look, there's just a huge gap in quality and they're the first team eliminated for this World Cup. They're eliminated with a game to spare Mike Turkiar.
00:49:04
Speaker
ah Look, Brazil got it going when they had to. Probably could have done a bit more, but in the end didn't necessarily need to. We'll see if that ends up mattering.
00:49:14
Speaker
Like if Morocco puts four past Haiti, if we're looking two games into the knockout round and man, Brazil's in a much worse situation Morocco. Yeah, we might regret it. But I think and don't think the tournament fates of Brazil are probably going to be decided too much by by this, you know, taking their foot off the gas. We'll see. I mean, I was pretty harsh on Switzerland for not doing it against Qatar. But I think also one one to Qatar and six zero by Canada is not quite probably, unless Morocco puts up nine on Haiti. like I don't think it's quite the same level. Look, I think Brazil needed this, right?
00:49:50
Speaker
like After game one, tough game, you know good good atmosphere in Philadelphia for them to kind of... breathe a little bit of the Brazil vibe, even though it's not Chogo Benito at all. Like, think they've got a little bit of confidence that they need. Like, even if we are maybe not at this elite top four, top five level, right? I feel like you can take this performance, even that it's against Haiti and say like... look at the level our front three is on I think we can bring this to anyone i mean Vinny's feeling himself for sure and Ancelotti's gotta be instilling belief into these guys it's been a weird weird camp whole tournament for Brazil i don't think they're under looked overlooked but I do feel like no one is taking them that seriously
00:50:37
Speaker
Yeah, and I don't think they're necessarily meant to be taken seriously with some of the stuff that they're doing, right? No, I think that's a fair way of putting at it. And look, they're in a good position to win this group. They're going to be in a big round of 32 game against a good team that's probably going to be either the Netherlands or Japan. And that's where I think they'll get stress tested for the first time when it actually matters. and and And we'll see. But yeah, you're right. This is the performance that they needed. They needed a little bit of space to breathe, right? They needed some time to say, all right, we won. We won comfortably.
00:51:06
Speaker
Let's just kind of all everybody step back and take a breath. and And that's what they got here. So the situation in this group going into the last match day, as we said, Haiti are eliminated. um Brazil and Morocco are on four points. Scotland are on three points. Scotland and Brazil play as well as Morocco and Haiti.
00:51:21
Speaker
That Scotland Brazil game, whoever wins that game would advance regardless of the other result. They would both go through with a draw. That's an interesting data point there. Again, with Brazil and Morocco, both on four points, if they both win, It would then come down to goal differential for who finishes in first.
00:51:36
Speaker
Brazil are plus three. Morocco or plus one. But again, Morocco will play Haiti, which you would think is a better opportunity to rack up the goal differential on the last match day. Scotland are the interesting team as far as who goes through or not. They're on three points with a zero goal differential right now, a one goal win and a one goal loss.
00:51:53
Speaker
If they can lose by just one or two goals to Brazil, They should be fine around the third place cut line, but it would be probably a long anxious wait for Steve Clark's side. But I think that's probably, I think they go into that Brazil game with the goal of getting a point and with the knowledge that they need to limit whatever damage may come.
00:52:16
Speaker
100%. think they're trying to keep it to 1-0 if they can. Defend all all game. Look, if you're even down by one with 10 to go, like that's where that you start to ask this question. should Should you go for it then or not? And I think what we saw against Morocco, they did um because a draw there would have really helped them.
00:52:38
Speaker
I think in the the second scenario, i wouldn't blame Steve Clark for being conservative. It's tough to go early, isn't it? like You don't necessarily know, like you said. It's a long, anxious wait. Look, I think you're trying to keep it 0-0 as long as you can, and Brazil will know that. I think Brazil will be probably scoreboard watching, right? If it comes out like, hey, it's Morocco-Haiti at halftime,
00:53:04
Speaker
one goal isn't necessarily i'm going to do it for us. like you just kind of Are you resigned to your fate? ah do you i don't think Brazil have this gear that they can put up like three on Scotland. I just don't think that exists the way this Scotland defends, the way Brazil are.
00:53:20
Speaker
Yeah, no, not unless Scotland get very naive and and get open and are allowing Brazil kind of to walk back the other way, which again, the game state suggests that they shouldn't because they they have to know what that line is going to probably be for third place. I said there's not a huge difference between first and second place in this group, but I think I kind of stand by that. So the winner of this group plays, again, this group is paired with the Japan, Netherlands, Sweden group. So the winner of this group will play the runner up of that group.
00:53:47
Speaker
And then that game in the round of 16 would be a runner-up that's looking like it could be Ivory Coast or Ecuador or Norway or Senegal. It's a pretty difficult round of 16 game, all things considered.
00:53:58
Speaker
Whereas the runner-up in this group obviously plays the winner of that Netherlands, Japan, Sweden group. which is probably most likely the Netherlands, but could honestly be any of those three teams at this point. But then the round of 16 game is the runner up of groups A and B, which is probably like a South Korea, Switzerland matchup, maybe South Korea, Canada. So the round of 16 matchup might actually be easier for the runner up. My point in all of that is, like you said earlier, I don't think there's a huge difference between winning this group and finishing runner up. Like maybe there is in other groups.
00:54:31
Speaker
I think you're right. We'll have to see that. That one's a bit tricky. I mean, is the quarterfinal eventually the spit out on that one? Like, could that matter where I was thinking in my head, I think Brazil, England, Brazil, England, but that's a long ways away. Yeah. So it would be the group winner is in the England quadrant, right? The England, Mexico city round of 16 game that we've talked a ton about, like that's in that quadrant, but for the runner up, like that's the France, Germany quadrant. So like,
00:54:56
Speaker
Listen, you're going to have to play a big dog in a quarterfinal. Again, like I'm with you. It really is not not that crazy. Again, I think there are groups where there is a massive difference between winning the group and finishing second. like I think we've talked about that with with Switzerland a bit. I think we've talked about that in the Mexico group. But I think this group, there's just really not that big of a difference. You definitely don't want to finish third place, obviously. like You want to make sure that that doesn't end up on the cards. but That'd be a pretty difficult situation to to fall into. Yeah.
Upcoming World Cup Matches Preview
00:55:22
Speaker
It's another fun day of World Cup action coming tomorrow amid Netherlands, Sweden kicks it off. We've got Germany, Ivory Coast, Curacao, Ecuador, and then we're closing it out with the re-debut of Heffernard with Japan and Tunisia. Give me one thing you're looking forward to here.
00:55:38
Speaker
It's World Cup after dark. I have to go to... No, guys, don't. If you need some sleep Saturday night, if you need to see your loved ones, you know, let Herb Bernard do his magic in secret. I don't think he's got a magic trick for you. Look, I think the first two games here are really excellent. Obviously, i think Germany, Ivory Coast is is a really strong game. Ivory Coast, I thought, a great, great performance against Ecuador and and a really tough game. Look, both those teams are good, but Ivory Coast right now...
00:56:07
Speaker
Asking the question, could they, you know, top this group? Germany, Ivory Coast, I think is exact type of physical game. Germany are physical too. Germany's midfield is cranking up. Those passing sequences are pretty, but I think Ivory Coast is already starting to win some some some hearts, again, some eyeballs with Jan Diamande, Ahmad Diallo. Like, this team can play. So if this game opens up, there's goals. If it's not open, it should be a tense cage fight. And I think that is... a really good game to get on round two of the World Cup where a lot of these round two matchups aren't as good.
00:56:41
Speaker
And it's going to be good to see Germany get stress tested, right? Like we didn't yeah obviously see that against Curacao. And so let's see it from Germany against a legit team. Netherlands, Sweden for me, I think there could be a lot of goals in that game. We know the defensive issues that Sweden have. We know the attacking threat that the Netherlands can pose. I think that's a really big game and that group feels wide open for first, second and third still at this point, right? Like Sweden are in first place right now because of their big win. They've got golden French in their back pocket. Should it come down to that in in any sort of situation? So yeah, I think it's going to be really interesting.
00:57:14
Speaker
I think Sweden's earned themselves a lot of house money, especially with, like you said, the four goals. And yeah, I think Netherlands defensive personnel is good, but on the truth of it, they're not really a team that plays that defensively. Like they get up and down and they ask their defenders to defend in space. <unk>s It's a tough ask against Sweden. I thought the the attacking display they put on tape was good. Should be goals here. I'm with you. I think this should be really fun.
00:57:37
Speaker
two blown leads in the first game for the Nullins, right? Like that's what we're kind of dealing with here. And there were four goals in that game and you're playing another impressive attack in Sweden. So yeah, that one should be obviously very, very fun. lot of pressure on Ecuador against Curacao. We didn't see the finishing in the first game, hit a bunch of posts. They're going to need to put the ball in the back of the net or things are going to get pretty sweaty. I think in Kansas city for them.
00:57:58
Speaker
And then, yeah, it's like it's late night e Bernard. Like he, He sees the the prestige bit we've been throwing out with Gustavo Alfaro and Carlos Caros. And he's like, oh, do you have room for a perfectly clothed Frenchman in your movie? And we'll see.
00:58:11
Speaker
Like, yeah all right. You get an audition. It's at 1 a.m. Argentina time on Saturday night. Hope you make it, buddy. And it'll be there. So, yeah, it should be fun. ah Look, it's another fun day of World Cup action a bit and I will be back to recap it.
00:58:25
Speaker
We will record the Saturday recap show on Sunday morning. So be sure to check for that. Then we are going to attempt to sleep at a somewhat normal hour tomorrow night. It's not going to work because we're going get sucked in by Heather Bernard, but like that's how it goes. If you like what we do here on the World Cup After Dark podcast and want to support us, ah you can subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, rate, review, comment, download, all the good stuff. Or you can also find us at patreon.com slash WCAD, where for $3 a month, you can support us directly and get access to subscriber-only content. We put out a patron-only show on Friday, Wednesday,
00:59:01
Speaker
Today, Friday, yesterday, I don't know. We're in that weird other time where you don't really know what day it is. But there's a Patreon-only show that is out there looking at some big picture stuff. And we previewed the USA-Australia game, which isn't really relevant at this point. But you can listen back and and see how right we were, which will least make us feel good. So there's that out for you. There'll be other Patreon subscriber-only content stuff that we will put out through the World Cup as well.
00:59:21
Speaker
But that is all for today's show. Amit and I will be back to talk about the Saturday games on Sunday morning. And we will see you then. Take care.