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National Top 25 Preview - the Big 12 Remains Elite
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Welcome to Episode 3 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast! We're a college basketball-focused podcast, with an emphasis on the Houston Cougars & Big 12 conference.
Ep 3 is dedicated to providing a national preview of who we believe will be the Top 25 teams in the nation. Included in our Top 25, we'll do a deep dive on 3 programs outside of the Big 12: North Carolina, Arizona, & Florida Atlantic. We'll also look to see how we compare with the AP and Coaches Polls that were just released.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Apple Podcasts, Spotify, & Pandora.
- Please follow us on Twitter/X @NoConfForOldMen https://twitter.com/NoConfForOldMen
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Transcript
Introduction and Episode Focus
00:00:05
Speaker
Welcome folks to the third episode of No Conference for Old Men. The podcasts where a couple of old guys are talking college basketball, focused on the Houston Cougars and the Big 12, but also with a bit of national big game coverage sprinkled in along the way.
00:00:19
Speaker
In our first two episodes, we provided a detailed view into the 2324 Houston Cougars team and then the Big 12 conference. So for those interested, please do go back and have a listen to those earlier episodes.
Projected Top 25 Preview
00:00:31
Speaker
Today, we move on to a national view, providing our own projected top 25 preview.
00:00:37
Speaker
We were recording this by coincidence on the day the AP and USA Today released their preseason polls as well.
Meet the Hosts: Steve and Tom
00:00:44
Speaker
So we'll compare to see how we did as we go through our list. I will say up front that there were three teams, the AP included and two, the coaches poll included, that we did not. And so those were Villanova, Alabama, and Illinois.
00:00:59
Speaker
I'm Steve Chang, your co-host for this podcast, Houston grad of 82, and the big data analytics geek of the show that will be breaking down the teams and games based on advanced analytics.
Episode Structure Overview
00:01:10
Speaker
And my name is Tom Lydiak. I'm a UH grad also, college basketball junkie, big Houston Cougar fan, and I still do a little bit of high school basketball coaching.
00:01:21
Speaker
OK, let's get right into it. We were unsuccessful last week in trying to keep our episode to under 45 minutes covering the Big 12 Conference. It's going to be that much more challenging trying to cover 25 teams this week, especially with the intent to also do a deep dive on three of the teams we want to feature. And those are going to be FAU, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Memphis Team Analysis
00:01:41
Speaker
But let's give it a shot here as we continue to get better at this podcasting thing. So similar to last week, we each respectively came up with our top 25 list. Obviously, in this case, there was a lot more variability between our two lists versus our big 12 projections, but still pretty good alignment. Out of all 25 teams, we only differed on two teams each, with Tom including Memphis and New Mexico, while I included UCLA and Kansas State.
00:02:10
Speaker
But after assigning points and re-ranking based on combining our respective rankings, let's go backwards in our consolidated list and provide some insights into what we think of each team in our combined top 25. Let's start at 25 and Tom.
00:02:27
Speaker
I cannot believe you made me do a preview of Penny's undisciplined Memphis team. I thought we were rid of these guys after heading to the Big 12. Anyways, why don't you start off and provide your preview of Memphis at number 25.
00:02:43
Speaker
Okay, Steve, we got Memphis, I had him in my top 25, led by the bottle throwing Penny Hardaway. They only have one returning, I believe it's one of his sons, 12 new players, eight of those come from the portal, four freshmen. The key additions they have is Alabama guard, Jevon Quinterly, Caleb Mills, another guard from Florida State via U of H.
00:03:06
Speaker
And then there's an interesting piece to Memphis's team. They get a big guy, Jonathan Pierre, who played for the D2 National Champs. They get David Jones from St. John's, averaged 13 points a game, seven rebounds. That's a big pickup for them. Jaquan Walton, who he played against in the American from Wichita State, averaged 14 points a game, five rebounds. He's a 6'7
UCLA and St. John's Insights
00:03:29
Speaker
guard.
00:03:30
Speaker
Big question mark for them is the eligibility of DeAndre Williams. Not sure if the latest I heard was still up in the air. But if they grant him a 27th year of eligibility, then that could take Memphis to the next level. Memphis, they do play good defense. That's one thing they do. Penny has his team playing good defense. I would say the ceiling for this team would be the round of 32.
00:03:56
Speaker
seen as the disappointment, I'd say not making the tournament. I think most people surrounding a Memphis program would be would be disappointed. Great. Yeah, Tom, the analytics were actually really impressive for Memphis last season, all joking aside. But however, Memphis was unranked in both the AP and coaches preseason poll.
00:04:16
Speaker
If you look at the analytics, they were number 20 last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin. They play with a pretty fast pace at number 22 in the country. And ultimately, they've been hanging their hat on D ranking 38th in Ken Palm's adjusted defensive efficiency by defending every shot with effective field goal percentage ranking number 26. But alas, we can always count on Memphis's lack of discipline ranking 196th in turnover percentage.
00:04:45
Speaker
They had heavy turnover in players, as you had highlighted. And my top three projected players, based on Bart Torvick's player box plus minus, have Jevon Quinnerly from Alabama at plus 3.8, Jaquan Walton, Wichita State transfer at plus 4.2. And then you also highlighted the unknown kid, Jonathan Pierre from Nova Southeast University.
00:05:09
Speaker
Now, as we go to number 24, we have UCLA and they were number 25 in the coach's pole, but unranked in the AP poll. Go ahead, Tom. Nick Cronin is an excellent coach, uh, back when he was coaching at Cincinnati, a lot of, uh, knockdown drag out games, uh, versus U of H. They're kind of mirror image of, uh, Kelvin Sampson steam. They're going to, you know, they played tough. They played gritty. They played hard. They, they were competitive.
00:05:37
Speaker
A lot of different players we'll see on UCLA, but I don't think you're going to see any style change from UCLA and Mick Cronin. Awesome. Looking at the analytics, they were number three last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin. They play with a really slow pace, not quite as slow as Houston, but ranked number 235th in adjusted tempo.
00:05:59
Speaker
Cronin's historical emphasis on D has been a hallmark, as you had highlighted, ranking number two in Ken Palm's adjusted deficiency. And they really challenge every shot with effective field goal percentage ranking at number 27. On the flip side, UCLA was 21st in offensive adjusted efficiency, emphasizing taking good shots while protecting the ball. They have heavy, heavy turnover in players. And from my projected top three, I had Adam Bona, their center that will definitely be playing in the NBA.
00:06:29
Speaker
at a plus 5.0. Dylan Andrews, the backup point guard, that was a plus 2.7 last year. And if you can believe it, the third most important player is a freshman. And I'm going to butcher the name Berke Leungtensil, a freshman from Turkey that needs to score for them to succeed. Now, if we go to the next team we've got on our list, number 23, it's St. John's. And they were actually unranked in both the coaches and AP poll. Go ahead, Tom.
00:06:58
Speaker
When we talk about St. John's, the big story is
North Carolina's Challenges
00:07:01
Speaker
Rick Patino. He's heading back, heading back to the big time here. He's going to have 10 new players, eight from the portal, two high school recruits. However, that transfer class is a top 10 transfer class led by shooting guard Jordan Dingle from Penn at average 23 points a game.
00:07:18
Speaker
In the Ivy League, they do return a center, Joel Soriano, whoever is 15 points a game and 12 rebounds. So if there's anybody, if there's any coach in the country that can mold a bunch of new players together quickly, that's Rick Patino, another Hall of Fame coach. You know, Rick Patino is going to have his team playing hard, competitive, unselfish. I would put their ceiling this year as round of 32.
00:07:47
Speaker
and seen as disappointing by their fans and people surrounding the program would be not making the tournament.
00:07:55
Speaker
From an analytics perspective, if you look at St. John's, they were number 82 last year in Ken Palm's overall adjusted efficiency margin. But quite honestly, the analytics are meaningless given Rick Bettina's the new head coach and why primarily we have them ranked at all. Looking at Iona's stats, just to get a feel for how St. John's will play this next season, there'll likely be a complimentary on both offensive and defensive play.
00:08:20
Speaker
play at a good pace and on offense they're going to protect the ball being low in turnovers and on D they'll defend like heck ranking top 20 and effective field goal percentage 3-point percentage and block percentage when you look at IONA's play last season.
00:08:37
Speaker
As you highlighted as well, Tom, heavy roster turnover, and rightly so, since he's trying to turn things around immediately. Joel Soriano is really the top player at a plus 6.2. And if you look at others to look for, you've got Danis Jenkins, a plus 4.1 from Iona, and Jordan Dingle, plus 5.7 from Penn.
00:08:59
Speaker
Now, as we head to number 22, it's the first team we're actually going to do a deep dive on. And this is the University of North Carolina. And from an AP poll perspective, they were preseason ranked 19th. And the coaches poll, they were preseason ranked 21st. So actually, both polls have them ranked even higher than we do. What do you think, Tom?
00:09:20
Speaker
Steve, the big story about North Carolina is what happened last year in the preceding year. Last year, they were the preseason number one team in the country. And they didn't even make the tournament. So Carolina is one of the top three or four Blue Blood programs. They're an elite program.
USC and Texas Roster Talk
00:09:38
Speaker
And when you don't make the tournament, that's not good for the people on Tar Hill Road, Tobacco Road. The season before that,
00:09:47
Speaker
Did a 15-point lead in the national championship game to Kansas and lost that one. So that was a huge disappointment for Carolina last year. They lose Caleb Love, who's off to Arizona. They lose Puff Johnson to the portal. They lose Leakey Black and Pete Nance running out of eligibility. We just say they graduated, right, Steve? Now they just say they run out of eligibility. That's right.
00:10:13
Speaker
So I'm not sure, not sure what that's all about. They do return two cornerstones though in big man Armando Baycott and also guard RJ Davis. They had five from the portal. They picked up a five star point guard, Elliot Caddo. I believe that's how you pronounce his name and.
00:10:33
Speaker
moles that are in the program, they've been leaking information. They say he's, he's really good. He's a distributor, which will be a lot different from the guards they had last year when they had Caleb Love and they had RJ Davis in the back. Those guys never met a shot. They didn't take or like, uh, at the, you know, and that when you have Armando Baycott down there, you, you know, your offense has to go through him to guard. They'll start RJ Davis average 16 points a game last year. They didn't get a transfer from Notre Dame, Cormac Ryan.
00:11:03
Speaker
Two years ago, he shot 40% from three point land, not as good last year. They get a Stanford transfer, probably they're starting for man, Harrison Ingram, good passer. This is going to help Carolina's ball movement because last year it was atrocious. You know, it's like when everybody got the ball, it was a black hole. Yep.
00:11:22
Speaker
So he plays more like a point guard. Uh, so that's going to really going to help her ball movement. And then you get to Armando Baycott. He has a school record for rebounds and double doubles. You have to get your, your offense has to go through him this year. The ceiling for Carolina, in my opinion is elite eight, uh, seen as disappointing would be not advancing to at least the sweet 16.
00:11:45
Speaker
North Carolina was number 43 last year in Ken Palm's overall adjusted efficiency margin. They played with good pace, ranked number 99th in adjusted tempo. They were good on offense, ranking adjusted efficiency at 51, and good at defensive adjusted efficiency at number 46. As you dig in deeper, on offense they shot terribly, but protected the ball well, ranking 25th in turnover percentage.
00:12:10
Speaker
On defense, the best thing they
Kentucky and Freshmen Impact
00:12:12
Speaker
do is defensive rebound at number 12. They have seven new players, only two freshmen. For my projected top three players, Bartorovic players box plus minus had Armando Baycott at plus 5.8, RJ Davis at plus 5.1. And I'm going to throw in a surprise at number three with Harrison Ingram, the transfer from Stanford with a plus 4.2. I think he's going to be a phenomenal fit for what they're looking for at the four position.
00:12:39
Speaker
Now why would we have UNC ranked given their okay analytics last season? Simple answer is addition by subtraction with Caleb Love moving on and they just have too much talent with Baycott and Davis as the foundation.
00:12:54
Speaker
Looking at the season before, when they had like one half away from the national championship, I did a deeper dive in comparing the last two seasons. Season to season, they were only a bit better on offense during their final four run. Adjust efficiency scores of ranking 18th versus 51st last season. Shooting a bit better and taking better care of the ball, but still high good on offense even last year.
00:13:20
Speaker
defensively, basically about the same of the two full seasons. Adjusted efficiency numbers of 35th versus 46th last year, but then if you do an even deeper dive into their final 13 games from after their February 16th, 2022 loss to Pitt, UNC's offense remained extremely consistent during that time, staying within half a point of their norm in raw offensive efficiency score during that stretch.
00:13:49
Speaker
However, on the raw effectiveness from a defensive perspective, they really tightened up by almost four full points from 100.5 points to 96.22 points.
00:14:03
Speaker
That's a crazy jump to end the season. To give you a sense of how good their D was during that run, Houston's raw defensive efficiency numbers as the number nine defense in the country during their 2021 final 4-1 was 94.38. So really, really close.
00:14:20
Speaker
So the key is whether with the additions of Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan can UNC tighten their defense to top 25 levels. They do that and our number 22 ranking is low and they could be making another championship run. We'll see.
00:14:38
Speaker
Now continue to move. We had
Triplet Discussion: Miami, Creighton, St. Mary's
00:14:40
Speaker
a tie and number 20, and the first one we're going to cover is USC. And they were 21 on the AP preseason pole and number 22 in the coaches bowl. Tom, what do you think of USC? Well, USC is always, uh, they have a lot of talent, you know, like, just like every other team, they lost some players and then they, they, they have some other players coming back. They play an exciting brand of all. They they've got skilled players.
00:15:06
Speaker
So looking for Andy Enfield to get USC in the tournament and to make a run this year. I would say they're ceiling for USC. Sweet 16, seen as disappointing, loosened into round of 32.
00:15:23
Speaker
From an analytics perspective, they were number 45 last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin. They play with a medium pace. They were what I would consider high good at number 49 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, but just missing my top 40 threshold for being a top team in either front.
00:15:45
Speaker
They were elite defending every shot with effective field goal percentage ranking number 11th in the country and were ranked 16th in block percentages. But they don't pressure the ball well, turn the ball over a ton. And they were outside number 175 in both of those categories.
00:16:03
Speaker
They're very stable with eight returning players for my projected top three players based on Bart Torvick's player box plus minus. We had Boogie Ellis that I would never have guessed would be a plus 6.3. Kobe Johnson at plus 7.5 and DJ Rodman, the Washington state transfer at a plus 4.4.
00:16:23
Speaker
Next we had tied at 20th was Texas, kind of a conference mate for one more season in the big 12. Steve, before we go on to Texas, a few more things about USC. I'd like to add, you know, big question mark is Ronnie James had the heart attack in the summer. It's not, we're not sure, you know, what's, how about his, his health? You did mention Boogie Ellis, you know, you used to play for Memphis, really good player, DJ Rodman, a little tidbit. That's Dennis's son. Yeah.
00:16:52
Speaker
And then they did get the number one recruit in the country, Isaiah Collier, five-star point guard, tremendous size at 6'5". So you look at their potential starting five, that's, you know, it's pretty solid ceiling. Like I said, it's probably sweet 16 lead eight, getting knocked out and around the 32 probably seen as disappointing.
00:17:16
Speaker
And Steve, you said we move on to Texas, correct? Texas, yes. Yeah, Texas, we covered in our Big 12 preview. We'll see Rodney Terry, interim coach last year. He had the whole Chris Beers situation last year. Started over a $6 pair of broken cheaters, I believe it was. So that cost him a lot of money, I think.
00:17:41
Speaker
But I think the key here is, you know, how Rodney Terry transitions from interim coach like he was last year now to, to Colin shots from, from the get go. Uh, they've had some roster changes too, but overall, you know, there's, there's, there's talent there.
00:17:57
Speaker
I projected them, I think, number three in the Big 12.
Baylor and Texas A&M Analysis
00:18:02
Speaker
I think you did. Yeah, right there with Baylor. I think we had Baylor at four, Texas at three. So there's a lot of pieces they have to have a really good team this year. No, I think we had Baylor, Baylor third, and then. Yeah, you're right. You're right, Steve. Yeah, we had Baylor third. We had Texas fourth. Yeah.
00:18:19
Speaker
Okay. From a analytics perspective, boy, they love Texas last year. They were number five in Kim homes overall adjusted efficiency margin, top 15 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, but they've got seven new players. Terry has a lot to prove in year two. That's all I'm going to say on the Longhorns. Now going to number 19, we've got Kentucky and they were preseason ranked 16th in AP and the coaches poll. So what do you think of Kentucky?
00:18:49
Speaker
Kentucky led by John Calipari. Boy, he's in Kentucky. They live and breathe with their basketball, rabid fans, high expectations every year. Pretty much if you don't win a national championship every year at Kentucky, you've failed. They've been perceived as underachievers last couple of years. So it's gonna be maybe a hot seat for
00:19:14
Speaker
Coach Calipari, Antonio Reeves is the only player returning who started the game. Eight of their 13 scholarship players are going to be freshmen. Granted, those freshmen are really good. They have the number three, number six, and number 20th ranked players in that class. They do lose Oscar Sheebway, big center, 16 points a game, 14 rebounds. And they do get a transfer trade Mitchell, five man,
00:19:42
Speaker
that maybe offsets the, the losses she weighed a little bit. He's coming from, uh, uh, West Virginia via Texas via UMass. So he's, he's got it a lot. He's a America's guest, you know, bags are bags are packed, ready to go. I'd say the ceiling for Kentucky this year is a sweet 16 team. And seeing as disappointing, like I said, if they don't win the national championship every year, they're seen as disappointing, but
00:20:09
Speaker
Uh, in fairness, you know, minimum sweet 16. And if they don't get past that, probably seen as disappointing. Okay. From an analytics perspective, there are no more 27 last year and Ken Palm's overall adjusted efficiency margin play with a slow pace. They were actually really strong on offense ranking number 17th in offensive adjusted efficiency, which is surprising given how much criticism Calipari receives on that side of the ball.
00:20:34
Speaker
But as usual, they were a high good on defense ranking 68th in adjusted efficiency on that side of the ball. But if you dig in deeper, their offensive efficiency was based on offensive rebounding percentage, ranking number one in the country and scoring quickly after those offensive rebounds, ranking number two in Hausland metrics, quick points off of offensive rebounds. Defensively, they were bad at forcing turnovers, but really good at every other key metric.
00:21:02
Speaker
There's heavy turnover with players with nine new players that as you highlighted, number one recruiting class in the country. From my projected top three players
Defensive Giants: Tennessee and San Diego State
00:21:11
Speaker
based on Bart Torvick's player box plus minus, I had Antonia Reeves had a plus 2.9, Justin Edwards, freshman five star, and then DJ Wagner, another freshman five star.
00:21:24
Speaker
Now, as we move on, we're up to number 18th, where we have Miami and they were preseason ranked 13th in both AP and coaches poll. See, before we go into Miami, a little tidbit about the DJ Wagner kid. Yeah. Correct. Yes. You know, our podcast is no called no conference for old men. Well.
00:21:44
Speaker
We both remember DJ Wagner's grandfather for Louisville, Milton, Milton Wagner, 1983. Yes. So now, uh, going on to Miami. Final four appearance last year. They lost two players to the NBA. Uh, Isaiah Wong really always liked his game. Uh, really, really in a really, really good player. That was their two leading scores. They lost. They do return six players.
00:22:13
Speaker
I really like Nigel Pack. I know in the U of H game, he killed us, but he returns. He's a 40% shooter from three, averaged about 14 points a game. They do have a transfer from Florida State, Matthew Cleveland. He was the ACC sixth man of the year, two years ago.
00:22:32
Speaker
They also have North Chad O'Mear coming back. 13 points a game, 10 rebounds. He was 13 all ACC. Interesting tidbit about O'Mear. He's from Nicaragua. You know, you don't hear a whole lot of players coming from Nicaragua. You think maybe, uh, you know, soccer or, or, or baseball baseball. Yeah. Yeah. Five men will probably start Michael Nowakko, a freshman.
00:23:00
Speaker
Concerns for Miami could be like a front court death. I would say the ceiling for this team would be sweet 16 and then for people around the program seen as disappointing would be losing in the second round.
00:23:13
Speaker
Okay. From an analytics perspective, they were number 24 last year and Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin play with really good pace. They were at lead on offense as our Cougar saw firsthand being six nationally and offensive adjusted efficiency. And they're good on defense ranking 99th. As you dig in deeper on offense, they shoot extremely well with effective field goal percentage ranked number 25th.
00:23:37
Speaker
and protect the ball. On day, they rely on stealing the ball and getting quick points off those ranking 20th in Haslam metrics on that front. Only four new players, but lost two really good ones. As you highlighted from my projected top three players based on Bart Torvick's player box. Plus minus had Nigel pack who was a plus 3.9. Norshad O'Mear plus 5.3.
00:24:00
Speaker
And then they're heavily relying on Matt Cleveland, who was only a minus 0.4 at Florida State. So we'll see how that goes. Now, moving forward, we've got number 17th where we had Creighton and they were eighth in both AP and coaches polls preseason. When you talk about Creighton, Steve, I see them as a poor man's Duke, Duke of the Midwest.
00:24:24
Speaker
I really like
Gonzaga and Arkansas Roster Moves
00:24:25
Speaker
watching Creighton play. They're only about two and a half hours from where I live. Hopefully, I'll get down sometime this year and see them play. I'd really like to see the Creighton St. John's game in Omaha, but they made the Elite Eight last year. They were shot away from beating San Diego State in advance into the Final Four. They returned three players, highlighted by big man Ryan Caulk-Brenner and Baylor Shireman.
00:24:50
Speaker
He was a transfer from South Dakota State University, a 6'7 3 man. Trey Alexander, 6'4 shooting guard, averaged 13 points a game, 41% 3-point shooter. They did lose Ryan Nimhart, Tukunzaga, Arthur Kaluma,
00:25:09
Speaker
Was a big loss to them in the portal conditions. And since I had a mug of hot cocoa once in Logan, Utah, when I went to Utah State back in the day, I kind of, I kind of watch a few, a few Utah State games, but they did pick up point guard Steven Ashworth from, from the Aggies of Utah State, 43% shooter from three.
00:25:28
Speaker
Can't leave him open. He's a dead eye. And then they also picked up Jonathan Lawson, a six foot six guard from Memphis. So when you look at Creighton, it's gonna be a solid starting five. Their four man is probably gonna be a six foot 10 former Virginia player and four star recruit Isaac Trout. I think that was a solid pickup for them. Ceiling for this team I think is a sweet 16.
00:25:55
Speaker
seen as disappointing from people around the program would probably be losing in the round to 32. Okay, they were 12th last year and Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin average pace was ranked 143 in the country so they were average. They were elite on O with adjusted efficiency margin ranked number 23rd and shockingly even better on D where they were 14th.
00:26:19
Speaker
As you dig in deeper on offense, they shoot extremely well, and especially on twos ranking 20th in the country, and they also shoot free throws extremely well, ranking 11th. On D, they defend the two well, ranking 25th, offensive rebound like heck, and they don't foul.
00:26:35
Speaker
They've got six new players, all but one are freshmen. For my projected top three players, I've got Trey Alexander at plus 6.2, Ryan Cough-Brenner at plus 10, and Baylor Shireman at plus 6.8. Now, going to number 16, we had St. Mary's, who was ranked 23rd in both AP in Coach's Bowl. What do you think, Tom?
00:26:57
Speaker
St. Mary's has actually picked, I think it was in the cultures poll to actually win the West Coast Conference, the WCC over Gonzaga. That doesn't happen too much. I really liked it. I really liked the St. Mary's program. Randy Bennett, very, very good coach. You never hear.
00:27:12
Speaker
You know, rumors about Bennett wanting to leave, you know, you can, you can respect that. He, he knows who he is and, and it looks like he's at St. Mary's for a while. They returned first team, all WCC, Aiden Mahoney, Mitchell Saxon, five man at six foot 10. And then they returned Alex Dukas, who averaged 12 points a game, uh, four rebounds a game going back to Saxon. He was a 12 point score, eight, eight rebound guy.
00:27:39
Speaker
Last year, the number five seed sweet 16 at CM is their ceiling scene is disappointing. They don't get all the first round tidbit here for you, Steve for Australians on the team. Yeah. And, uh, and one Lithuanian.
00:27:54
Speaker
Yeah, I completely agree. He keeps it up to year after year. He just keeps getting them in. Now from an analytics perspective, they were number 13 last year and Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin played at a snails paste ranking 359th in adjusted tempo. They were high good on offense.
00:28:12
Speaker
but elite on defense with defensive adjusted efficiency at 10th. As you look more closely on offense, nothing stands out. They do everything reasonably well. On D, they defend every shot and especially the two ranking 23rd in the country. Plus they defensive rebound like heck, ranking second there as well. Only four new players, all are freshmen. For my projected top three players, I've got Aiden Mahaney at plus 3.2.
00:28:39
Speaker
Alex Dukas at plus 7.4 and Mitchell Saxon at plus 5.2. Next up we have Baylor at number 15 and they were preseason ranked 20th in the AP poll and 17th in the coaches poll. What do you think?
00:28:54
Speaker
Steve, I believe we had Baylor third in the Big 12 after Kansas and U of H led by Scott Drew. They're going to have possibly two five-star freshmen in the starting lineup. They do lose LJ Cryer to U of H. They lost Davante George to the NBA. So they did lose some fire power, but they do have talent coming back. So, you know, I don't expect anything different from Scott Drew's Baylor program this year. They're going to be a tough out in the Big 12.
00:29:23
Speaker
Yeah, as you said, we've covered them last week in the Big 12 overview.
Arizona's Roster Changes
00:29:28
Speaker
They were 16th last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin, played at a slow pace, were exceptional on offense, ranking second in offensive adjusted efficiency margin, but dropped off big time from the last few years on the defensive side. But really, I think the only thing I'll add is I think that was an aberration. Help is on the way with seven new players, three that are highly touted freshmen.
00:29:52
Speaker
For my projected top three players based on Bart Torvick's player box plus minus, I had Ray Jade Dennis, the transfer from Toledo at plus 5.0, Jaylen Bridges at plus 7.4, and five-star freshman Jacobi Walker as the three to look out for. Now going to number 14th, we had Texas A&M and they were preseason ranked 15th in the AP poll and 19th in the coaches poll. A&M last year
00:30:19
Speaker
Steve 2510, they finished 15 and 3 in the SEC. That was a really, really good record in the SEC. Only lost three games. They ended up, though, as only a number seven seed. And it makes people wonder, did the tournament selection crew, they might not like some comments Buzz made back when he was coaching Virginia Tech about not getting into the tournament. So.
00:30:43
Speaker
You know that that looked like a high seed for the kind of record. They had he was buzz was the SEC coach of the year and Like coach Sampson he prides himself on his teams to be in scrappy. He has eight players coming back. I Put a red flag down. They lost in the first round last year to Penn State That's that's never good when you have the season, you know the regular season that they did and then you lose in losing the first round and
00:31:10
Speaker
They also returned first team, all SEC guard, Wade Taylor, the fourth. I'm not sure how good the first three, Wade Taylor's were, but I know Wade Taylor, the fourth is, is, is really good. Portal additions from middle Tennessee state, they have guard Eli Lawrence. And then they also picked a portal transfer from Illinois, Chicago, another guard.
00:31:30
Speaker
looks like jace carter ceiling i would say a number two seed elite eight appearance for anm that's their ceiling flip side seen as disappointing would be uh losing in losing in the second round so not making it to the sweet 16
00:31:46
Speaker
Okay. There were number 33 last year and Ken Palm's overall adjust efficiency margin play at a slow pace. They were excellent on offense ranked number 34. High good on defense. As you look more closely on offense, they actually shot poorly, but the offensive rebound like heck ranking fifth and got to the line a lot being third in the country on that front on D. Nothing stands out other than forcing turnovers and scoring quickly off of turnovers.
00:32:15
Speaker
I've got six new players, three freshmen from my projected top three players. I've got Tyreese Radford at plus 5.3, Wade Taylor at plus 9.3, and Henry Coleman at plus 3.5. Next up, we've got Tennessee at 12th, and they were preseason ranked ninth in the AP poll and 10th in the coaches poll. What do you think, Tom? Well, when you think of Tennessee basketball, you think of Rick Barnes.
00:32:41
Speaker
And you think of really good defense. They were number one in Ken Palm, defensive efficiency last year. They made a sweet 16 trip. They only allowed 57.9 points a game. That's really good playing the competition they play. They did lose four key players. Red flag Steve for Tennessee and each of the five trips to the NCAA is under Barnes. They've lost to a lower seed.
00:33:07
Speaker
And in some of those games, it was, uh, uh, you know, the difference between Tennessee seed and the team that beat him was, uh, was like three, four, five, six seeds higher. They do return point guard Ziegler. They do return the shooting guard Viscovi. That's a, that's a good backcourt to start with. And they did bring in a transfer we saw last year.
00:33:29
Speaker
I don't know if you're at the Northern Colorado U of H game last year, but it was the first game of the year. He's going to come off the bench. He's Dalton connect.
00:33:38
Speaker
We shut him down though, last year against us, he only shot three for 10, had seven points. He did average 20 something points for Northern Colorado, so he's a big addition. I'd say the ceiling for this team is a sweet 16. A disappointing season for them would be losing to a lower seat again in the tournament. And if they do, that'd be six trips under Rick Barnes that they've lost to a lower seat.
00:34:04
Speaker
Okay, from an analytics perspective, they were number six last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin, played a slow pace, they were good on offense, but really the best D in the country with defensive adjusted efficiency ranking number
UConn and Michigan State's Strategies
00:34:19
Speaker
one. As you look more deeply on offense, they actually shot poorly, turned the ball over, but offense rebounded like heck, ranking sixth and scored quickly off for turnovers, ranking 16th in Haslam metrics.
00:34:31
Speaker
On defense, they're excellent across the board, challenging every shot where they were number three in effective field goal percentage, number one for two-point field goal percentage D, while also forcing a ton of turnovers. They've got seven new players, five being freshmen. For my projected top three players, I've got Santiago Viscovi at plus 8.6, Sakai Ziegler at plus 7.7, and Dalton Connect at plus 4.2, the Northern Colorado transfer.
00:35:00
Speaker
So at 12 we've got San Diego State University and they were preseason ranked 17th in the AP poll and 15th in the coaches poll. What do you think about San Diego State? Steve, the big story about San Diego State is them making the championship game last year. So great season for them. They play in the Mountain West Conference. That's a conference I have a lot of respect for. I watch a lot of those games because they come on a little bit later at night and you know get a chance to see
00:35:29
Speaker
to see them all the attentions on their games at night. Bottom line, they returned five players. They had two portals. They had three frosh. They had USC transfer Reese Dixon Waters. He was the Pac-12 sixth man of the year. Overall, I think their ceiling this year, Sweet 16 team would be the ceiling. Disappointing would be losing in the first round, not advancing.
00:35:52
Speaker
Okay, from an analytics perspective, they were 14th last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin, played a slow pace, they were good on offense and exceptional defense with defensive adjusted efficiency ranking of number four.
00:36:07
Speaker
As you zero in on offense, they actually shot very poorly, but got more shots than opponents ranking 37th in Haslam metrics field goal attempts rate on D. They challenge every shot ranking 20th in effective field goal percentage, especially good defending the three. They've got five new players, three being freshmen. My projected top three players are Darien Trammell at plus 3.9 Reese Waters, the USC transfer at
00:36:36
Speaker
plus 0.3 and Jayden Liddy at a plus 5.7. Next, we're on to number 11th where we have Gonzaga and they were 11th in the AP preseason poll and 12th in the coaches poll. Okay, Steve, when you talk about Gonzaga, you know, solid program, they're kind of perceived as one of the elite programs in the country. The talent level is not as good as it's been, you know, the last couple of years, but they're still gonna be a good team. They lose Drew Timmy.
00:37:06
Speaker
and they also lose their number two and number four score. They do have the number 10 transfer class though. They bring in the really good point guard from Creighton, Ryan Nimar, his brother played for Mark Feewick and Saga. They bring in a postman from Wyoming, Graham Ike. And then they bring in the big sky player of the year, Steve Vinters, who played for Eastern Washington University. I'd say the ceiling for this year's Gonzaga team, I'd say sweet 16.
00:37:35
Speaker
Seen as disappointing I would say not making the not making the sweet 16 tidbit about Gonzaga Like st. Mary's like Arizona they get foreign players. They got one from Croatia. They have one from Serbia They actually have a player from South Korea. So Wow, that's
Houston's Big 12 Outlook
00:37:53
Speaker
my little tidbits on Gonzaga Okay, they were number eight last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin played a fast pace ranking 39th
00:38:04
Speaker
Every year they're elite on offense, ranking first in adjusted efficiency last year and good on D at number 73. As you dig in deeper on offense, they shoot extremely well with effective field goal percentage ranking second in the country and are equally adept at shooting from either twos or threes.
00:38:23
Speaker
They also don't turn the ball over on D. They don't challenge shots, but they're good at defensive rebounding and not fouling when they're defending. Finally, there's new Drew Timmy with eight new players, five being freshmen for my projected top three players. We've got Anton Watson at plus 8.0 Ryan Nemhart, the transfer from Creighton at plus 3.3 and Nolan Hickman at plus 2.4.
00:38:50
Speaker
Now, moving to number nine, we have Arkansas and they were preseason ranked 14th in both AP and coaches poll. What do you think? Okay, Steve Arkansas, led by Eric Musselman, came, comes from the NBA, NBA background. He's probably pretty adept at getting rosters every year, trying to, trying to put them together quickly. Arkansas returns only five players, so they hit the portal hard.
00:39:17
Speaker
You know, the joke after the season was over with and the portal was open was that, you know, Arkansas was getting.
00:39:23
Speaker
Come to Arkansas, all right? They were hitting the portal hard, nine newcomers. I had seven from the portal last year, 22 and 14, eight and 10. They ended up a nine seed, but they did beat number one seed, Kansas. That was Kansas without Bill Self. We'll never know how much of an impact that had, not having Coach Self, Hall of Fame coach from the sideline, not to take anything away from Arkansas. So a big win for Arkansas last year. Key transfers, Tremone Mark from U of H.
00:39:53
Speaker
belief battle from Temple to solid players. They also have a transfer L Ellis from Louisville last year average 18 points per game. That's the good news. The bad news is that he comes off. You know he played for a 428 Louisville team.
00:40:09
Speaker
Devontae Davis is the lone returning starter. You might see LLS and Devontae Davis in the back court with Kaleef Battle coming off the bench, which he's pretty used to because last year, Damian Dunn and Kaleef Battle for reasons we don't know, didn't start for tempo last year. There are three men, it's probably gonna be Tremone Mark. Bottom line, might take time for all the new players to gel. I'd say the ceiling for this team is a sweet 16.
00:40:34
Speaker
A disappointing season for them would be losing in the round to 32. They were 22nd last year in Ken Palm, overall adjusted efficiency margin. They play fast. They were high good on offense and excellent on defense with defensive adjusted efficiency at ranked number 17th. As you look more closely on offense, they're okay across the board and really try to manufacture points by getting to the line with an exceptional free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio in Ken Palm, ranking 23rd.
00:41:04
Speaker
and they get quick points off of steals. On D they challenge every shot and they get lots of blocks ranking number 20th and steals where they're 25th. Eight new players, six from the transfer portal. For my projected top three players I've got Davante Davis at plus 2.6, Travon Brazil at plus 5.4, and of course former UH player Tremont Mark at plus 4.2.
00:41:28
Speaker
Now we're on to number nine, where we have Arizona and we're going to do a deeper dive here. They were preseason ranked 12th in the AP and 11th in the coach's bowl. What do you think, Tom? Arizona led by coach Tommy Lloyd used to be an assistant for Mark Few at Gonzaga. I would say they underachieved, you know, last year, first round exit. They were number two seed. They lost the number 15 Princeton. And, you know, that's when you're when you're a seed like that and you lose to a 15 or a 14.
00:41:57
Speaker
You know, the, a lot of people, a lot of fans, they lose their minds, but, uh, some of these teams like Princeton, we're going to see pin this year, U of H is you don't see their style a whole lot. Princeton didn't run what's the peak real Princeton offense, but they do run something similar. So a lot of times, uh, you know, you don't want to see a team like Colgate Princeton on the NCAA tournament when the, when the bracket comes out.
00:42:22
Speaker
Nonetheless first round exit for for Arizona bitter taste in their in their mouth. They're gonna return Larson Bolo Boswell They lose to Bellas who went off to the NBA. They lose the point guard Kirk Risa who went to West Virginia and my opinion they're getting a little bit tougher Arizona's a little bit tougher team
00:42:44
Speaker
Now that crease is gone. I wasn't a big fan of Kirk Risa. I don't know just I just wasn't a fan He'll probably come back and kill us at West Virginia when they play U of H But that's right. I think they I think they've added some length and some toughness It'll be better defensively. They do add K to bluff from North Carolina and
00:43:04
Speaker
And they add Jaden Bradley, another guard from Bama. Projected start and lineup. Could have Jaden Bradley at the one. Caleb Love at the two. Love only shot 30% from three. Probably because of shot selection. You know, you take better shots. You're going to shoot a higher percentage. Might have Kylan, Kylan, Boswell come off the bench. Pell Larson probably at the three
FAU's Unique Strategy
00:43:27
Speaker
spot. They do have a freshman from Lithuania, Polyus, Maroskis.
00:43:34
Speaker
He'll probably see some playing a lot of playing time at the three. Uh, your four man is a transfer from San Diego state. Keisha Johnson. There's another foreign foreign player from Estonia. That's, uh, Henry Vsar seven footer. Your five man is, uh, Omar Balo pack 12, most improved player.
00:43:55
Speaker
You have another Lithuanian, another freshman. He's a seven, seven foot two. Motegius Krivas tidbit about Arizona for seven footer, Steve on their roster. Wow. They have a Spaniard. They have a Serbian. They have a Lithuanian, a guy from Sweden, one from Estonia, and they actually have one from, from England. Ceiling for this team. I would say final four.
00:44:22
Speaker
Seen as disappointing, not making the elite eight. I mean, there were 11th last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin. They played a fast pace ranked 13th. Every year they've been elite on offense with Lloyd ranking 10th in adjusted efficiency last year. And we're just great on D as well with adjusted efficiency on that side at 39th in the country.
00:44:46
Speaker
As you dig in deeper on offense, they shoot extremely well with field goal percentage ranked third in the country and are equally adept at either twos or threes. They're basically a mini Gonzaga on offense. On D they challenge shots and they're especially good at defending the twos ranking 32nd in the country. Seven new players, four being freshmen.
00:45:07
Speaker
So for my projection top three players, I've got Omar Bolo at plus 7.6, Pele Larson at plus 5.2, and the Mercurial Caleb Love at plus 1.8, the transfer from UNC.
00:45:23
Speaker
Now doing a deeper dive, I believe Arizona is going to be elite and I love how Lloyd teams play. I also believe he's evolving to emphasize D more as time goes on. The most fascinating thing about this team to me is how Lloyd did an addition by subtraction by letting Kirk Risa go, but then come around and replace them with Caleb Love.
00:45:45
Speaker
who had the exact same type of reputation at UNC. So is this gonna result in a wash? Because they were basically within 0.1 in player box plus minus. Now,
00:45:58
Speaker
Truthfully, I actually believe it will actually work out because Kreisa played the point guard where you need a steady hand to control the game. And with Keelan Boswell now playing the point for Lloyd in Arizona, his player box plus minus granted in limited time was plus 5.4 and will make all the difference in how they play moving forward.
00:46:19
Speaker
Now moving on at number eight we have uconn and they were preseason number six in the ap poll and number five in the coaches poll what do you think of uconn tom.
00:46:29
Speaker
Yukon led by Danny Hurley Yukon kind of plays like Danny did in college, you know, just like his brother Bobby. They're, they're fiery. I think Danny had some, uh, I wouldn't say training, but he, he got better on the sideline, not losing his mind all the time. You know, when you're, when you're, you can't coach mad, you know, use, when you lose your head, you know, uh, he was a little more calm on the sideline.
00:46:54
Speaker
And I think that made a huge difference in UConn season. If you ask the average college basketball fan, you know, how many championships has UConn won? Not many will realize they've won five, five national championships, you know, that puts them up there with, you know, schools like Carolina, Kansas, Indiana. Nobody's up there with UCLA because they had that run with Coach John Wooden. UConn loses two players to the NBA. They lose Jordan Hawkins, Adama, Sanogo, or off to the NBA.
00:47:24
Speaker
They return five players. They get eight new players. Only one from the portal. Camp Spencer from Rutgers is the one from the portal. Key returnees they have is four-man Alex Caravan, 42% shooter from three. Average nine points a game, four rebounds. A guy I really like is seven foot two Donovan Clingan.
00:47:45
Speaker
whoever seven points and six rebounds a game. I think, I think you're going to see a huge leap in, in his game this year. I just, I just liked his energy, you know, his, uh, just his skillset. I would say the ceiling for this team final four this year seen as disappointing, not making, not making the sweet 16.
00:48:05
Speaker
Obviously, the defending champions, they were number one last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin, played a slow pace. They're exceptional on offense at number three in an offensive adjusted efficiency,
Marquette and Duke Evaluations
00:48:17
Speaker
as well as D, where they were ranked seventh.
00:48:20
Speaker
As you look more closely on offense, they shot well, being equally adept at shooting both twos and threes, and they offense rebound like crazy, ranking second. On defense, excellent across the board, challenging every shot, ranking number five, an effective field goal percentage, being equally good at defending both twos and threes.
00:48:40
Speaker
They were also great at blocking shots ranking 25th in block percentage. They've got six new players, five being freshmen, projected top three players based on Bart Torvick's player box plus minus had Tristan Newton at plus 6.1, Alex Caravan at plus 6.6, and Donovan Clingen. Now granted, this is limited amount of time, but he was a plus 11.4, which is crazy.
00:49:08
Speaker
Now, moving on to number six, we have Michigan State, and boy, the Polls love them because they were fourth in both the AP and Coach's preseason poll. What are your thoughts on Michigan State? Michigan State, Steve, another program led by Hall of Fame coach and Tom Izzo. They did pick up the nation's third-ranked class, so they'll have some young guys they're going to have to mesh in with their four starters that they return.
00:49:37
Speaker
This team.
00:49:38
Speaker
Upset number two seed Marquette. Michigan State was a seven seed doing that. But the strengths of this team are going to be their Hall of Fame coach, their guard play, their experience. They really don't, I don't know if, see if you came across this, but I had no transfers for, for Michigan State, which is, which is unbelievable, you know, in this day and age of college basketball. There's something to be said for continuity in today's game.
00:50:07
Speaker
As long as you have good players and good coaches, you can have continuity and not have a whole lot of talent coming back. But when you have talent, you have continuity coming back. That's a huge factor, I believe, in college basketball. I think they're going to challenge Purdue for the Big 10 title. And I have a little tidbit here. As you can see, it's the last Big 10 team to win a national championship in the year 2000. Sealing for this team.
00:50:35
Speaker
I would say national champs seen as disappointing, not making the elite eight. Wow. Yeah. I mean, there were number 26 last year and Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin played at a slow pace. They were excellent on offense ranking 27th in offensive adjusted efficiency and just outside my top 40 threshold for being great with defensive adjusted efficiency.
00:50:59
Speaker
If you look more closely on offense, it all revolved around the three-point shot with three-point field goal percentage ranking set third. Boy, I'm screwing this one up. Making their free throws as well. On D, nothing stands out. They were good across the board. Four new players, all freshmen. Izzo doesn't like to use the portal much as you highlighted her there on. So if you project out the top three players, they're all returners with Tyson Walker at plus 5.2.
00:51:28
Speaker
AJ Hoggard at plus 4.7 and Jayden Aikens at plus 4.8. Now, tied for sixth with Michigan State, we had Houston, who was preseason ranked seventh in the AP poll and sixth in the coaches poll.
00:51:44
Speaker
Steve, a little tidbit about U of A. Sure. Before we get started, we just had a commitment from chase McCarty, a four star, probably, uh, probably be seen as a three man. Yeah. That he goes along with the recruiting class with, uh, mercy Miller, who's a four star shooting guard at six, four. So that's a, so far that's a good recruiting class to four stars, uh, there.
00:52:05
Speaker
When you talk about U of H basketball, you got to talk about the Sampson's Hall of Fame coach Kelvin Sampson. His teams are gonna be tough. They're gonna play defense. They're gonna rebound. They're gonna offensive rebound. They're gonna share the ball and share the basketball and offense. You got a good core coming back. Jamal shed a point guard. You have Joanne Roberts as one of our as one of our bigs. We're not at practice so we don't know who's gonna start.
00:52:32
Speaker
But you're probably looking at, you know, Jamal at the, at the point guard, probably looking at LJ Cryer at shooting guard, Damien Dunn or Terence Arsenal at the three. And that's a really good, that's a, that's a good problem to have when you are either going to start Damien Dunn from temple, you know, you average like 15 points a game, or you're going to start Terence Arsenal, who a lot of NBA scouts really, really love for man.
00:52:57
Speaker
Probably played Joe Juan at the four. Probably have Javier JVA, Javier Francis at the five. First big men off the bench is probably gonna be Joseph Tuggler, who everybody is excited about. I haven't seen him play yet, but looking forward to that.
Purdue and Kansas Performance Pressure
00:53:16
Speaker
Bench is gonna be solid. You have Emmanuel Sharp coming in to play the one or the two. If Dunn doesn't start, you'll have him coming off. If Arsenal doesn't start, he'll come off the bench.
00:53:27
Speaker
I like Mylick Wilson. I know he had a hand injury at practice. We'll see how that comes around. I'm probably missing some players here. I know I'm missing a guard. Solid roster. It'll be interesting to see how Coach Sampson meshes these guys, you know, and how playing time is divvied out. But today is October 16th.
00:53:54
Speaker
It's only 12 days till we get to see him play in an exhibition against University of North Carolina Pembroke. Coach Sampson graduated from there, so I think I speak for most Houston Cougar basketball fans. We can't wait to see this year's edition play.
00:54:13
Speaker
Yeah, extremely exciting. We were second last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin. As we all know, we play at a snail's pace. We are exceptional on offense, ranking 11th in offensive adjusted efficiency and defense. We were ranked fifth. As you look more closely on offense, we didn't shoot well, but we offensive rebound like heck.
00:54:35
Speaker
and we protect the ball, ranking 28th in turnover percentage. Indeed, we're elite across the board. We challenge every shot, whether it's a two or a three. To top it off, we're also great at blocking shots and even stealing the ball in the last couple of years. We've got seven new players, four being freshmen. My projected top three are Juwan Roberts at plus 8.5, Jamal Shedd at plus 5.7, and the Baylor transfer, LJ Cryer at plus 5.0.
00:55:05
Speaker
Now next, we're at number five, where we reach FAU. It's another deep dive. They're a preseason ranked 10th in the AP and ninth in the coaches' pool. What do you think of FAU? Steve, FAU intrigues me. They were a really fun team to watch last year, 35 and four records. They're moving over to the American Athletic Conference. So we'll get to see FAU and our good old buddy Penny duke it out in the American.
00:55:32
Speaker
Their roster was kept intact from the team that made the final four. Coach Dusty May, first four seasons, he was only slightly above 500, but he really got him rolling last year. They returned co AAC Player of the Year, John L Davis and Elijah Martin.
00:55:50
Speaker
And these are preseason picks here, CoAAC Players of the Year. They also have the big guy, the seven foot one, 240 pound Russian via Texas Tech, Vladislav Golden.
00:56:06
Speaker
really came on toward the end of the year. Steve, there's some doubters out there about FAU. They don't know if they can repeat this, but any team that makes the final four and returns pretty much their whole roster intact, I'm not seeing the doubt there. I'm really high on FAU. Beat Memphis last
Conclusion and Social Media Invitation
00:56:24
Speaker
year in the NCAA tournament, 66-65.
00:56:28
Speaker
They were beat at the buzzer by San Diego State. I don't know if you remember that game, but you know, FAU was just, they were, they were right there from making the championship game. I'd say their seedlings, the final four, disappointing. In my opinion, it would be not making it at least to the sweet 16.
00:56:48
Speaker
Little tidbit on FAU. Their super secret scrimmage this year is against Carolina, North Carolina. So yeah. Yeah, I wish I could be there. Now from an analytics perspective, there were number 17th last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin, plated good pace. They were excellent on both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency ranking 22nd on offense, 34th on defense.
00:57:17
Speaker
As you look more closely on offense, they shot well with effective field goal percentage ranking 24th in the country, and they were equally adept at twos and threes. On defense, they challenged every shot with effective field goal percentage ranking number 16th, but they were especially focused on two-point field goal percentage with their seven-footer kind of anchoring the defense.
00:57:40
Speaker
They have almost everyone back with only two new players, all our freshmen. For my projected top three players, I've got Jonnell Davis at plus 7.5, Allegia Martin at plus 6.7, and Vlad Golden at plus 4.4.
00:57:57
Speaker
But though the stats are impressive, most are probably questioning why we've got them ranked fifth instead of around 10th like the AP in Coach's Bowl. Or you could even argue maybe 20th, right, given the stats. And it's a fair question. And I'll just say that my heart is speaking a little bit in this case because I just truly love how they play.
00:58:18
Speaker
Dusty Bay is playing the ultimate modern game, in my opinion, with truly four guards out in one big the whole game long. He's got an old school back to the basket seven footer in golden inside and four perimeter players, none taller than six foot four. Even with an undersized three and fours, they cut hard and attack the rim on offense and he requires that everyone blocks out hard, hits the boards and challenges every shot on D.
00:58:47
Speaker
Reminds me of the 8889 Lou Henson Illini team with Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle and Kendall Gill around a Lowell Hamilton in the middle. Really a style of play that helps you advance at turny time with all the great ball handlers and perimeter defenders on the floor with a shot blocker anchoring the D. Anyways, heading to number three, we have Marquette and they were preseason ranked fifth in the AP poll and seventh in the coaches poll. What do you think of Marquette, Tom?
00:59:17
Speaker
Marquette led by Shaka Smart. They have 85% of the minutes coming back from a team that went 29 and seven, highlighted by pre-season Big East Player of the Year, Tyler Kolek. Red flag for Marquette though, Steve, as they lost as a two seed in the second round to number seven in Michigan State. This team, I see their ceiling as national champions, seen as disappointing, not making the elite eight.
00:59:46
Speaker
Marquette was 10th last year and Ken Palm overall adjust efficiency margin, good pace. They were elite on offense ranking seventh in offensive adjusted efficiency. It almost hit our top 40 threshold on D ranking 43rd.
01:00:00
Speaker
As you look more closely on offense, they shot exceptionally well with effective field goal percentage ranking number seventh, focusing on twos, primarily ranking fourth in two point field goal percentage, and getting quick points off of steals where they were ranked 19th in Haslam metrics. On defense, they don't really focus on challenging the shooters, but they do pressure the ball and try to turn you over ranking 18th in turnover percentage and number 10th in steals.
01:00:27
Speaker
They get almost everyone back with four new players all being freshmen. For my projected top three players, I've got Tyler Colic at plus 8.1, also Iguodaro at plus 7.9, and Cam Jones at plus 7.4. Next up, we're into our final three with Duke at number three, and they were preseason AP poll number two and coaches poll number three. What do you think of Duke?
01:00:54
Speaker
Steve, the big story with Duke is the second year of John Shire after coach Mike Shushefsky coaching there for, you know, was like 40 years or so. Duke had a good season last year, 27-9. They ended up being a five seed. They were the ACC tournament champions. They did have a second round exit to Tennessee, though, that kind of, kind of saw their season.
01:01:17
Speaker
They didn't add one player out of the portal. They have experience and plus they have talented young players. You're looking at their starting five. You're probably looking at Jeremy Roach at the point guard average about 14 points a game. You have Tyreese Proctor as a freshman, nine points a game, three rebounds, three assists. TJ Power is a five star.
01:01:39
Speaker
He's probably going to be maybe a four man. He's six foot 10. You have another five star guard coming in. Jared, Jared McCain, a guy who might start come off the bench is Mark Mitchell, nine points, five rebounds a game, 35% from three key player here. He's the ACC rookie of the year. He was the ACC tournament MVP is Kyle Philipowski, average 15 points, nine rebounds again, a game.
01:02:08
Speaker
I mentioned McCain, five-star guard, very popular on TikTok. He's got two million followers, Steve, on TikTok. All right. Nice. Another tidbit about McCain is that he was considered as a true freshman, as a team captain. He wasn't voted on as a team captain, but there were some veteran players that they're considering him to be a team captain. I think that's pretty impressive.
01:02:34
Speaker
I'd say they're seedling. They can be national champions. Disappointing seasons for them, I think, would be not making the final four.
01:02:44
Speaker
Okay, they were 18th last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin at a way slower pace than what Coach K used to have them with a ranking of 298th in adjusted tempo. They were strong on offense right at our threshold of number 40 in terms of offensive adjusted efficiency and excellent on D where they were ranked 16th.
01:03:06
Speaker
As you look more closely on offense, they didn't shoot great, but they did offensive rebound like heck and shot free throws well. On day, they are exceptional at challenging every shot, ranking 15th in effective field goal percentage defense, being equally adept at defending both 2s and 3s. They are also great at blocking shots.
01:03:26
Speaker
Basically, if you look at the stats, they're like a mini University of Houston now on defense, which is really telling of how they play now. Only four new players, all are freshmen. For my projected top three players, I've got Kyle Filipowski at plus 6.4.
01:03:43
Speaker
Tyrese Proctor at plus 2.5 and Jeremy Roach at plus 2.4. But as you highlighted, look out for freshman Jared McCain, who UH was really hard on during the recruiting cycle. Expect him to get some minutes pretty early on. Now at number two, we've got Purdue and they were preseason ranked APA number three, coaches poll number two. What do you think of Purdue?
01:04:07
Speaker
Steve, the big story of Purdue is what is what happened last year when they were a number one seed and he lost to a number 16 to Fairleigh Dickinson University. I don't know if you looked at the Ken Palm yesterday and saw where Fairleigh Dickinson is this year.
01:04:21
Speaker
They were in the three hundreds, I believe. So I think the heats on, uh, coach Matt painter, they return everybody except for two players. The big returner for Purdue is, uh, Zach Edie. If he's not the best big man, big man in the country. Uh, you know, he's him and probably a hundred Dickinson are the top top two big men. Uh, they returned shooter Fletcher lawyer.
01:04:45
Speaker
They won the Big Ten regular season, and they also won the Big Ten tournament, finished 29-6. But that doesn't mean anything if you can't get it done during the tournament.
01:04:57
Speaker
They do get a transfer from Southern Illinois, Lance Jones, turn all five starters, red flag, Steve 32% from three last year as a, as a team. And then five for 26 from three point land versus fairly Dickinson ceiling. They don't choke national champions. And then, uh, seen as disappointing, uh, not make, not making the final four. So.
01:05:23
Speaker
You know, uh, there's gonna be a lot of pressure on, on Purdue heading into the NCAA tournament next year. Yeah, definitely. I mean, they were, they were seventh last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin played at a super slow pace. They were elite on offense, ranking 12th in offensive adjusted efficiency and excellent on defense at number 24. As you look more closely on offense, they didn't shoot great.
01:05:48
Speaker
But they did offensive rebound like heck and got to the line a lot on D. They're really strong at challenging every shot ranking 40th in effective field goal percentage being equally adept at defending both twos and threes. But surprisingly only ranked 53rd in two point field goal percentage defense, especially with someone the size of Edie in there.
01:06:13
Speaker
They've got four new players, three being freshmen. For my projected top three players, you've got Zach Edie at an astounding plus 14.3. I don't think I've seen another number that big in player plus minus. Then they've got Braden Smith at plus 6.6 and Fletcher Lawyer at plus 1.9.
01:06:33
Speaker
and now finally we're at number one where we both had kansas and both ap and coach's poll had kansas number one as well so you want to give a summary on kansas tom yes steve a couple of uh
01:06:47
Speaker
Things about Kansas, the big story of the offseason was the addition of Hunter Dickinson from Michigan. Also, Bill Self had that heart condition last year, set out the NCAA tournament. Not sure what kind of effect he'll have on his coaching going forward, but you look at some coaches in the past that had some heart conditions. It's tough to come back. You had Rick Majuras, you had Don Haskins.
01:07:15
Speaker
Uh, that had these, had these heart problems. So, you know, hopefully in bill self's case, he comes back and, and, uh, you know, there's, there's, there's no health problems for him. But like I said, the big addition was Hunter Dickinson, bill self, he knows how to use his, uh, his big man. So you're going to see the offense run, run through Hunter Dickinson. They returned Kevin McCulloch, kind of like a Swiss army knife. He's a glue guy point guard could possibly be the best point guard in the country. So Kansas has talent.
01:07:45
Speaker
They're going to be greatly coached. And when you play them at home, you got to play them in fog Allen field house, which in my opinion is the number one basketball cathedral in the country. So look for, look for Kansas and university Houston to battle it out in the big 12, but overall I put Kansas at number one to start the season.
01:08:08
Speaker
Nice, and I completely agree. I mean, they were number nine last year in Ken Palm overall adjusted efficiency margin. Good pace, excellent on offense, yet again at number 25 in offensive adjusted efficiency, and even better on defense ranking 11th. When you dig deeper on offense, they didn't do anything great.
01:08:29
Speaker
but they were just balanced in doing everything well and then they became excellent overall on offense. That's just great coaching. On defense, they challenge every shot ranking 32nd in effective field goal percentage defense, but they're especially good at defending the threes last year, ranking 30th and stealing ball, ranking 17th.
01:08:50
Speaker
Six new players, three being freshmen, and scholarships are not fully allocated this season, which is an oddity. So they really can't afford to have any more injuries heading into the air. But for my projected top three players, we've got Hunter Dickinson at plus 9.3, Kevin McCuller at plus 6.0, and Dewan Harris at plus 6.0 as well.
01:09:15
Speaker
So that's it for our National Top 25 preview and episode three of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if you listen in, follow, or subscribe to our podcast. We appreciate and would love any and all of your support to reinforce our view that there is an appetite out there for the type of deep hoops insight we're trying to provide. And please provide a rating and feedback. By the way, we do appreciate the five star kind. Also give us a follow on Twitter.
01:09:44
Speaker
No conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening and episode four will come out next week with finally our previews of actual games moving forward. So please be on the lookout to listen and download next week. Thanks again.