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WCAD 4-24: We are all Blue Sharks
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Austin and Amit start the show with a detailed breakdown of Cape Verde's wild 2-2 draw with the supernova that is late-era Bielsa Uruguay. From there, it's praise for Spain in a comprehensive 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, disdain for Belgium in their 0-0 draw with Iran, and appreciation of Egypt's second half effort against New Zealand.
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Transcript
World Cup Passion
00:00:01
Speaker
There is no doubt that here at the World Cup After Dark podcast, we love the World Cup. It is as good of a tournament as you will find anywhere in sport. And for six weeks, every four years, it consumes our life.
South America's Struggles
00:00:14
Speaker
Consumes our life so much, Amit, that you get into these World Cup moments and things happen and you're trying to like process the big picture reaction to it all. And and South America is kind of having a bad World Cup and in Ecuador blew it against Curacao. And all of a sudden, Uruguay are drawing with Cape Verde. And you're like, what does this say about South American football? You're trying to like think about diving into all the ramifications of that. And then before you know it, Chris Wood and New Zealand are on the pitch and you're completely switching your focus. It is a fire hose of football for six weeks.
00:00:44
Speaker
Yeah, you've got to give credit to FIFA, perhaps a little bit, evilly in a sense, in that they just keep it coming. You you don't have time to breathe. You've got to eat. You've take care of whatever you've got to take care of. You don't get that much time. There's less than an hour between some of these games. Like you said, you don't even have time to think. You've got to keep a laser focus. we We keep our schedules very tight to get through these games. And they're making us you know get through weird times, too. It's hard to balance it all.
00:01:11
Speaker
the The body clocks are in weird places throughout this tournament. I think that
Cape Verde's Cinderella Story
00:01:15
Speaker
much can be said. Today on the World Cup After Dark podcast, my name is Austin Miller, joined by Amit Malik. We're going to look back at another wild day of action. And these two groups in particular, right? The the the Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia group.
00:01:29
Speaker
And the Belgium around New Zealand, Egypt group have have tossed up some very weird results of the two match days. The first time these groups were on the pitch, they threw out four draws. And yesterday they threw out a bunch of interesting results as well. I think there's only one place for us to start, Amit, and it is with...
00:01:46
Speaker
our beloved blue sharks from Cape bird. This is a team that you and I were cautiously optimistic about heading into the tournament, right? We were impressed by what we saw in calf qualifying. They took out a better in air quotes, Cameroon team pretty comfortably in qualifying to get to this world cup.
00:02:06
Speaker
But I think even in our wildest dreams, our expectation for this Cape Verde team was, I think they can be significantly better than Saudi Arabia. I don't think we had two points from games against Spain and Uruguay in our projections. What a start for Revista's men.
00:02:23
Speaker
They've really impressed, I think, the story, the Cinderella story so far of the group stage. I'm with you. You go back and listen. And i know some of you are joining us. You probably weren't you know slogging through graph qualifying with us. But this team has the project has been in the works for a long time.
00:02:42
Speaker
They can defend. They can attack. They've got talent. It's the Portuguese diaspora. Even the whole narrative, there's no one maybe outside of this group of players that could have dreamed being where they are right now. I think that is the key. like Even us here at World Cup After Dark, Blue Sharks truthers, you go back to the preview pod, we said very confidently, we think this team is better than Saudi Arabia. Even yesterday, you go to the pod and you go...
00:03:05
Speaker
I think this team could could play hang with Uruguay. You almost want to give us credit, but even then, we can't take that much. like This is just Dreamland stuff, truly. like Who saw this coming?
00:03:17
Speaker
They did apparently and that's the best part of this all is you've seen the belief with this team you've seen the buy in and a that this matchup was a late stage Bielsa supernova right a star on the verge of collapse as as it always seems it is crossing with just the worst type of surprise candidate.
00:03:35
Speaker
a team that just does not go away. And Uruguay, it felt like they rescued this game, right? We'll get into all the details in a minute, but but Cape birds score first. It's a mistake for from the Uruguayan wall. You're thinking, Oh, this could get poor, but they rescue it. And before halftime, they're two, one up. And you think, all right, they've gotten through the rough patch. They'll be able to see this out, but it's another inexplicable mistake. And then they just can't find it at the end of this game.
00:03:59
Speaker
And it's really a tale of missed opportunity. I think in this one for Uruguay. Yeah, up to one, you having done the things that Bielsa and the players both, like getting the answers to the challenge Cape Verde presents, it feels like they're they're in control and it's just mental mistakes. and let's talk about this this spirit for Cape Verde, this fighting spirit, this never say die. You know, something you want to say about minnow, right? It feels like it fits for a small team, for this Cinderella story. Yeah.
00:04:30
Speaker
But the truth of like the on-field stuff and and what you're seeing is like it does match that. They're not scared of Uruguay. Their players are fit as a a big key in this game. And they make changes to chase the game down 2-1 where so many of the smaller, worst teams in this tournament are salvage jobs. They're just trying to protect. They're just trying to hang around and wait for their five to ten minutes.
00:04:56
Speaker
I think Bubista is... to his credit, somehow like just tapped into a fearless identity of this team. And when it's actually never say die, when it's actually fearless, not just the cliched version of it, you get a team that is very, very easy to root for.
00:05:15
Speaker
And the depth that they have had an impact on this game. And and we saw it, right? You think back to what we saw with Curacao against Ecuador. The depth that Curacao had was simply legs to run around and clash into people. That's what they had on their bench. That was the only thing they could tap into.
00:05:29
Speaker
In this game, Cape Verde goes to their bench and their bench has an impact on a game and is able to change it, get them back into it, and then almost at points, win it. they They have chances in the last 10 minutes here when this game gets completely stretched into the the twilight zone, the chaos tactics free zone was really fun.
00:05:46
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, the also in this game, Kate Barrett is missing their striker in Serie A, Livermento, and they just didn't really miss a beat. And I thought players...
00:06:01
Speaker
12, 13, 14, even 15 here, really were up to the level. And the one thing you could say is also, right after halftime for 15 minutes, Cape Verde gets like three or four guys on before Bielsa makes his change. And think just that impetus is what maybe causes the lull that leads to the Cape Verde second goal, which we're going to talk about.
00:06:27
Speaker
And if Ubisoft is outmanaging Marcelo Bielsa, right? The tactic, intelligent mind himself, it's pretty darn impressive. So the first goal for Cape Verde in this game, after these teams went back and forth a bit to start, Cape Verde win a free kick in a semi-dangerous spot, right? It's a bit long out. It's probably around 30 yards from goal.
00:06:45
Speaker
And Kevin Pena is one of the three guys who lines up to take it. For Fernando Muslera, the Uruguayan goalkeeper, puts two guys in his wall. It's Maxi Arrujo and Federico Vines. Two guys in his wall. And he says, all right, those guys are going to take care of that side. going to take care of this side. It's going fine.
00:06:58
Speaker
And up for Cape Verde steps Kevin Pena. And this was great a bit because it's like you could just see this in slow motion happening where he's just running. He takes like seven steps into the free kick.
00:07:08
Speaker
And I'm sitting on my couch watching this and I'm literally saying, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. And then it just gets better from there. Cause you know, usually when that happens, this dude takes a seven step run up and it either clatters into the wall or it goes into section Z and you're like, ah, good try.
00:07:22
Speaker
But what happens here is inexplicably Rufo and Venus split in the wall. They just don't stay together. And there's just this gap. And that is exactly where Kevin Pena smashes his free kick. It's through the wall.
00:07:35
Speaker
Musler late reacting and it's one nil because it goes to the back of the net. I don't think this is on Fernando Musler. Like when you're a goalkeeper, if you set your wall, the one thing you were expecting them not to do is literally split in the middle and let the ball through.
00:07:49
Speaker
He's late getting there because he expected that to be covered. This is just a goal that you can't concede in this moment. But man, the Kevin Pena run up was so fun. credit to him for trying. He's kind of taking advantage of ah a weakness, a soft point, a spot that no one is thinking, right? It's the zag. No one's supposed to shoot from this far. And there's a reason why Muslera only puts two. And I think that's the one thing you, well, there's, there's multiple things you can quibble with.
00:08:17
Speaker
Obviously, the players cannot do this. But maybe, maybe the one thing is you should take the threat of a shot more seriously. If it's even three or four guys, they can't really like all get out of the way. But because it's just two, they're kind of useless. Like, did they think they needed to cover the space of more than two people horizontally? I don't know. And...
00:08:39
Speaker
it's just like a little fundamental thing that annoys me about this, this Bielsa team. Like you, you can't get this wrong. It's such a, like, you just can't be beat by a 30 yard pot shot.
00:08:52
Speaker
That was avoidable. It's not like Pina hits like the best 30 yard free kick you've ever seen. This is a Declan rice in the UCL. Yeah. He's not, it's not but it's not going up and down here, right? It's just, it's just straight through force. Yeah. He just whacks it. You could have stopped it guys. What are we doing? Yeah.
00:09:09
Speaker
So Cape Verde take the lead and then they kind of let their legs run a little bit, right? They have shape. They can get in stuck into challenges and they're finding some spaces. They have some counter. It's hard for Uruguay to kind of just flood everybody in the box and assault it. They don't look very comfortable.
00:09:25
Speaker
Until they do. And the last kind of 15, 20 minutes of the first half was the best so do I looked in this game. And this was as close as they've looked to the idealized version of Bielsa ball in this tournament and really for quite some time.
00:09:38
Speaker
And they make it count with two goals. Really the same pattern that they're working on here is that they they free up a guy around 30, 40 yards out. He pings it to the back post.
00:09:49
Speaker
Uruguay are able once they've once they've worked off the legs of Cape Verde to get four and four or three on three at the back post. And then it's twice kind of the same thing. The first one, this is left to right. um It's Sanabria at the right post. He heads it off the post, I think. Vazinha can't get there. Maxi Araujo is there to clean it up. Great. Now you're just thinking we got to just get to halftime, right? For Cape Verde, it's 1-1. We can reassess. And there's five minutes of stoppage time. And this is in a World Cup full of hydration breaks and and not that long stoppage time. A rare case where you could just press that chaos advantage after you scored. Keep doing it.
00:10:32
Speaker
It's the same thing. This time it's Ugarte steps in. He's 30 yards out, kind of centrally. He's got three on three on the back post. He stands it up to the back post. It comes right across. Canobio is now the late run. He's the fourth guy in the box. And this is what Spain couldn't do. Spain tied zero zero with Uruguay because they don't have physical bodies. They're trying to do the 10 pass sequence. And they actually get some of this back post ball to work on against Saudi Arabia. We'll talk about that later in the podcast. But this is Bielsa Ball at its most direct. And I think it's hard for this team to score the pretty way.
00:11:08
Speaker
That's never the case. But... their strength is in the midfield Valverde, Maxi Araujo, Ugarte, Betancourt, and they've got a physical guy like Venus and Canobio. It's, it's brute ball, but like, this is what it works. Why couldn't they do this little 10 minute stretch more in the first game in this game?
00:11:30
Speaker
And that, That's the question. Maybe we'll answer that at the end because let's talk about the rest of the game. But it's it's right here. It looks like, oh, my gosh, Bielsa has figured it out. This is the model for this team to to work out, right?
00:11:42
Speaker
And they kind of had Cape Verde in difficult situations because they were asking them to defend in ways that they hadn't defended so far. in the tournament, right? Against Spain, it was it was one way and and they had that figured out and they got that done.
00:11:54
Speaker
But now all of a sudden, it's kind of four on four in the box and the ball's in the air and it's in these awkward positions and you're kind of trying to do these last ditch defending plays. They just don't pull it off and they're down 2-1. But to their credit, Cape Verde come out in the second half and they start making changes and they figure out, all right, we need to press Udawai because we can't allow them to just play these balls into the box, into the danger area.
00:12:16
Speaker
And that's what they do. So they bring on Dino Redorarte, who's a good leggy wide midfielder at halftime. And then right on the hour mark, Helio Valera and Nuno Da Costa come on. More midfield legs and a bit of a target striker action in Da Costa. Bubista has some things to work with off his bench. Udo, I haven't made any subs, as you alluded to earlier, Amit.
00:12:34
Speaker
And there's just enough belief here for Cape Verde to not just sit back. They're down one, but hey, we can go chase this. And that's exactly what they do. They chase it, and Uduwai just make a series un-understandable plays, right? So Varela and De Costa are pressing a back pass, and it's Matias Oliveira who just kind of gets spooked but by Helio Varela running at him.
00:12:56
Speaker
He just hits a blind back pass 40 yards out. He's not looking. It's not a pass that you could ever really do at any point. But even then, it's not the fatal mistake in this play because the fatal mistake is that Muslera and Cosseris are in trouble.
00:13:10
Speaker
Helio Varela is running on this kind of 30 yards out. And Fernando Muslera is like, hey, I listen to those guys on the World Cup After Dark podcast. They talk about cap qualifying a lot. I've seen a lot of cap qualifying. You know what goalkeepers do in cap qualifying?
00:13:24
Speaker
They just go for random walks because they're like, ah, I can do this. And that's what Muslera does. Out of nowhere, he decides that this is the moment for him to come and chase this down and block this off. And he's going to make the play single handedly and save it.
00:13:37
Speaker
Dear listener, he does not make the play single-handedly and save it. He comes out charging. He's completely out of position. And Helio Varela just takes one touch around him and has a wide open goal for 2-2. This is a legitimate play by Helio, right? This is a very good play.
00:13:51
Speaker
But this is just a series of catastrophic mistakes from Uruguay to let Cape Verde get back into this game. It's similar to the first goal in the same way of like preventable, preventable, preventable. Like you just don't, to your point, at no point should you ever hit the blind to back pass. I'm sick of seeing this. Well, you could get away with it maybe a few times, but like they're trying to pounce off it. Just look, look, look where you're going. You have to see where Varela and DaCosta are. And obviously, yes, as you described earlier,
00:14:24
Speaker
Muslera doing this, i like... there's no There's no way to explain this. i think he thinks he's going to get there. He's just completely misjudged the speed. And now, okay, we know this is dumb by Uruguay. This is a big mistake.
00:14:39
Speaker
The flip, just the flip here is is we're kind of... This is projecting a little bit, but the theme of Cape Verde, like just asking the question, just having the legs of the two subs using speed to press 60 minutes in when the Uruguay players are just maybe at a mental lull. Like this play isn't really out of anything. That's the other thing that makes it so frustrating. It's just a random moment, kind of like that time in the Columbia game where Uzbekistan throw it in and lose the press because the speed of that press is so...
00:15:09
Speaker
you know, unexpected. Why are you unexpected by the Cape Verde press is the question of Bielsa team. It's just like the loss of focus. And that's where I go to the first goal to loss of focus to have the two guys in the wall, not do it.
00:15:23
Speaker
Like these two goals for Cape Verde are not going to show up in the XG sheet as like high goals. It's not going to be a game model thing for Babista, but it's the hallmarks of a team that just asked the question.
00:15:35
Speaker
And if like the eighth or ninth best team in calf asking the question is enough to undo you what does that say about you uruguay the thing about muslera on this too is it's it's not that he came out and got it wrong he should have never come out costrus is in a decent position here like just test your ability like all right if helio varela is going to win the ball beat a defender and then beat me with a shot tip you your cap. All right. That's just a really good play. You have to allow that to happen here.
00:16:03
Speaker
You can't possibly give Cape Verde a chance into an empty net, which is what they do. Trust that Casares can come across and and take care of this. Trust yourself to make a save one-on-one. We've seen plenty of one-on-one chances missed in this World Cup.
00:16:15
Speaker
It's just all wrong here from Uruguay. absolute scenes in the Cape bird celebration. And then amid this game, if the the wacky meter was already on like 8.5, you just nudged up as high as it'll go. We've got Darwin Nunez cameo for Uruguay trying to chase this game for 20 minutes.
00:16:34
Speaker
Uh, Vosinha, who was the hero of the game against Spain, Maybe was drinking his own Kool-Aid a little bit too much because there's some plays in this game that he makes where he's not super calm on the ball. He has this one, like he's in the bag and he just is like taking touches around defenders and like, dude, credit to you, but not me with the two, two game.
00:16:54
Speaker
He's also like catching the ball and then like dropping it like intentionally, like trying to bait the defender. Like he's a point guard trying to shave clock off the off the game clock in the backcourt. Like he's feeling himself a bit too much because there also is a moment where the ball comes off of him on on a cross and a rebound shot. And he almost he does give it up for a goal and it's ruled off sides. They get bailed out there a little bit.
00:17:19
Speaker
Yeah, the the play where Uruguay have a corner and the player who takes the corner keeps his foot out and is ended up being offside on the recycled ball, which, yeah, again, was he makes a mistake and it's in the back of the net. That's a huge moment here, too, which, again, is kind of another lack of food you're the guy taking the corner. What's the first thing you have to do? you have to get yourself back on side so you can be an option and he's not and it wasn't even like Cape Verde stepped up the line the dude's hanging out in the post you don't have to get very far the pitch to be able to be an option back on side and it's just that that focus again um Darwin Nunez had a really good cross in a one-on-one moment nobody gets on the end of it Federico Valverde had a very good opportunity on a free kick that just goes high uh Agustin Canovio had a chance kind of in a semi-breakaway situation where he just gets kind of thrown off his line there's a lot of chances here for Uruguay there's Also, a lot of chances here for Cape Verde. They're threatening constantly. They could have had a penalty after Ugarte crashes in against Acosta.
00:18:13
Speaker
That's one that I would have liked to have have seen maybe a couple more replays on. I'm with you, and this is, i mean, credit to Kate Baird for like not like totally carping for the pen here, but I think if you like go down and act like you've been hit really hard, the referee might look at it. He might look at it, and he might say, okay, Ugarte was late, but it didn't affect the play. I mean...
00:18:39
Speaker
The replay here looks like pretty clear contact. i I understand the ball is kind of outside of his path, but isn't this a pen most of the time? Am I missing something?
00:18:51
Speaker
It certainly looked like one live, right? Like it had all the hallmarks of all that dude's late in the challenge. and It's a penalty. So that was a weird situation in this game. Pitford, I think, are playing with house money at this point. They understand the situation here, which is something that you and I talk a lot coming into this World Cup was going to be key for teams is to understand what you're being faced with.
00:19:10
Speaker
And the situation here was even if Uduwai come back and beat us, we could still just beat Saudi Arabia on the last day and go through. If they could have somehow stolen a win here, completely changed the calculus this group.
00:19:20
Speaker
It's a good point for them. It opens up more doors on the final day. Whereas for Uruguay, they are huffing and puffing at the end of this game and they don't get it. And now much like Ecuador, like we saw the other day, they're staring at a matchup with the top elite European team in their group and they have to get something from it. In the case of Ecuador, they need to win.
00:19:40
Speaker
Uruguay would probably be okay with a draw. But look, in a group that features Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, your group stage coming down to getting something off Spain is not where you expected it to be.
00:19:51
Speaker
you just, and in a vacuum outside of a vacuum, wherever you look at it, you can't come away with two points from Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia that in like in a vacuum that would put you as like the 70th best team in the world. Like the Uruguay thinks they're in the, around the top 20. Um,
00:20:09
Speaker
um Look, this is kind of what we had been thinking could happen to Bielsa's team. you You go back to all of our previous stuff, or even just the the way this has kind of fizzled out in the two years post his Copa run.
00:20:24
Speaker
This team is a little bit uninventive. He demands this style. They're not quite... built to play this style. They're missing a striker. The back line is perhaps a touch flow.
00:20:37
Speaker
All of that being said, there has been even more slippage in these two games, and it has compounded. Now, I don't think this challenge against Spain is impossible, but what's harder for this game than compared to, say, Ecuador and Germany is that Spain can't like fully lose this game to then they would get out of the top of the group so it's not gonna be a fully rotated Spain Spain has something to play for this is real real trouble like I think Uruguay and Ecuador are two of the teams that could be the surprise bounce candidates absolutely did you enjoy speaking of the the nine nations of Uruguay did you enjoy the the constant cuts to Luis Suarez in the stands in this one
00:21:19
Speaker
I did, actually. It was great TV, and he was looking really happy at halftime. They cut to him after the Canobio goal, and he's like, yes, we did it. Good job. And then in the second half, each cut just gets progressively more like incisive. and Look, would Luis Suarez have helped in this game?
00:21:41
Speaker
Who can answer that question? But there is something to just like – Why didn't now we'll come back to it. Like, why couldn't they do what they did at the end of the first half more? Is it because of Cape Verde's legs was like, let's bring up the fitness again.
00:21:59
Speaker
Which of these two teams was more fit? It was Cape Verde. This was 90 degrees muggy in Miami. This was a tough game. Uh, I think I don't want to be like as reductive as like Cape Verde from the more tropical climate, like they're more fit. Like that isn't exactly how I feel, but they were move deeper and leggier. I thought in general,
00:22:23
Speaker
Absolutely. And they made it count in this game. And that was the big thing here. Look, we love this Cape bird team coming into it. I think there's some sentiment that this is some big minnow Cinderella surprise story. Look, there's no doubt about it. As we said, we didn't have two points from Spain and Uruguay on the cards for this team.
00:22:42
Speaker
But this is a good team. This is a team that is probably a top 10 team in Africa. You put this team up against Tunisia, up against Ghana, obviously up against Cameroon, who they beat in qualifying.
00:22:53
Speaker
You said this team can hang with those teams. This team might be better than those teams. And it's the combination of this team being legitimately talented, this team being really well managed by Bubista, and this team taking advantage of the opportunities given to them.
00:23:07
Speaker
Look, is it entirely sustainable to give up 2.5 XG to Spain and get a shutout? Is it completely sustainable to lose the XG battle 2.3 to 0.9 and draw the game 2.2?
00:23:19
Speaker
No, it's not. But it also feels like Cape Verde earned those bounces in some sense, if that's such a thing. I agree. And, you know, the past XG isn't going to show up in the future. Now they've put themselves in this spot versus Saudi Arabia where, okay, yeah, we we were opportunistic and we we took the bounce that gave us. But now we can make our own luck, I think. Right. actually against Saudi Arabia. And that is what you have to do when you're the pot four team, when you're the quote unquote minnow. I mean, it's hard to dream up a ah team a way you could have done this better.
00:23:58
Speaker
and it's been awesome. It's been super fun to watch. The the stories have been great. The the the scenes from the fans have been amazing. It's going to be interesting to see how this team does now with the pressure on them, right? They played with house money for two games. They got two points.
00:24:10
Speaker
Now they're going into a game where they are going to be expected to get a result and expected to kind of take dominance in the game. Let's see how that goes. The other game in this group, Amit, it was Spain and Saudi Arabia.
00:24:20
Speaker
We asked the question, could Spain perhaps be foiled again? They answered the question quickly. They answered the question ruthlessly, and they answered it pretty emphatically. A 4-0 win against saudi Saudi Arabia, that was never really in doubt.
00:24:33
Speaker
It wasn't. This was kind of just what the doctor ordered for Luis De La Fuente and his team. And look, you don't want to be too harsh
Spain's Commanding Performance
00:24:42
Speaker
to Saudi Arabia. I don't think they were like...
00:24:45
Speaker
untryingly bad or like unfathomably bad. Like they just are what they are. They can't defend in a low block. They have to have some space in the game. They're not very physical. Cape Verde's players are leggier. Cape Verde was better at the shell.
00:24:58
Speaker
Saudi Arabia just aren't at that game. And look, If you give any space to this team, it's over. It's it's over. And credit to Spain. I think they were slightly off gear in the first game. And in this game, they had all the timing right. The runs, to me, were the best part. Laminimor's directness was awesome.
00:25:20
Speaker
Ogerthabal was able to move was awesome. And De La Fuente makes a couple of tinkering changes for this kind of game, and they all work. We're going to talk about them, but like the truth of it is, it just kind of all clicked at the right time because the team on the other side was Saudi Arabia.
00:25:35
Speaker
It feels very reductive, but the fact that Spain was able to play Lavinio all from the start, and yes, he only goes for the first half, but that's only because they needed him for the first half, feels like it just unlocked so many more possibilities for this team. And you take that and then you pair it with the fact that Saudi Arabia are just significantly less organized defensively than Cape Verde are.
00:25:54
Speaker
It was always going to end well. Yeah, his directness and running off ball on top of what he does on the ball. Now he's into the I'm going to put in air quotes, the Steph Curry, like triple threat, like he's got gravity on and off. And that's just a lot for a defense to deal with, especially when the rest of your front line is dynamic.
00:26:13
Speaker
look Let's talk about the changes. He gets Gavi off on the left wing. He puts in Baena, who is a very solid Atletico Madrid control or not control like dribbling midfielder. But to me, the key changes were Danny Olmo in for Fabian Ruiz. That's another body to ask questions going forward.
00:26:29
Speaker
And then he takes off Marcos Llorente, who is a more athletic right back for Pedro Porro, who is a more crossing right back. This is a good game for Pedro Porro to get in and try to unlock that more quality on the ball. And yes, the the defense is a little bit softer, but...
00:26:45
Speaker
In the first game, I thought Ojo Thalba was way too stationary, and they were just passing around him. Torres was not quite a winger, and he was kind of misused. Gavi is an off-ball guy, but there was no off-ball place to run because of how deep Cape Verde were. Now you've got a much more dynamic front line, and it was just...
00:27:05
Speaker
Any moment there was space, Ouerthabal runs a channel, cuts it across. It's Yamal. Okay, now we've got now they're backed up, but we can flood the box with runners. The Cucurea cutback actually works on one of these goals. He heads it to Olmo, who's in the box in a way that Fabio Ruiz might not be. Olmo heads it across, and Ouerthabal scores the goal. um It's just really, really pretty stuff from Spain.
00:27:28
Speaker
It is, and it just felt like they got the defenders moving for Saudi Arabia, and they opened up space. And and as you said, this Spain team, you can rag on them for not being blunt enough to kind of force it through against low block, but the second you give them space, the second they open up that space, it's champagne football, and that's what it was in this game. They find that space, and they just are automatically taking advantage of it, getting runners in, and the interchanges just look so much more fluid here.
00:27:57
Speaker
They did. And this was also a good sign without Williams too. And that I think their highest gear will involve him on the left wing. I think Baena is fine. But just what you saw, I think, is when you don't play players in weird positions, like Baena and Yamal are left wingers and right wingers. Gavi is not. Torres is not. I think De La Fuente, at least you have to give him credit for that.
00:28:20
Speaker
Look, are either of us feeling that our priors are necessarily changed for Spain? I don't think so, but it's more like reassuring to know that if this formation and level is there, I'd feel better about them getting punked in a round of 32, round of 16 game against the team worse than them.
00:28:40
Speaker
The level of defending you need to stop the Lamin-Yemal involved version of Spain is very, very high. i think that was a big, big thing for Cape Verdez. They had to defend for 70 minutes without him on the field.
00:28:54
Speaker
We saw Nico Williams for half an hour in this game. I think that's another good sign for Spain. and The fact that you feel confident enough to put him on the pitch in a game that is well done and dusted to get him some run. I think we'll see kind of maybe the first choice Spain against Uruguay. And that's going really interesting tactical matchup because if Uruguay start running and pressing, and it's going to be poor because Spain are going to play this passing style that obviously we know that they can do. So that's going to be a really interesting game. This group i is very finely poised. so So Spain lead it with four points.
00:29:23
Speaker
I think a draw against Uruguay is going to be enough for them to win the group. We've talked about it ad nauseum. the The motivation for winning the group here is avoiding Argentina in the round of 32. Argentina obviously play later today. So we'll see as long as that holds and it looks like Argentina will win that group.
00:29:38
Speaker
Then yes, you have to win the group. A draw will probably do it. The only reason it wouldn't would be if Cape Verde scored four against Saudi Arabia, win by four against Saudi Arabia. yes That could happen, but a win definitely wins the group for Spain. And I think that's going to be their motivation. Cape Verde on two points, but they're in a really good spot because they play Saudi Arabia, who have been the worst team in this group.
00:29:56
Speaker
A draw probably gets them through. a win definitely does. The most likely result here for this team is second place in this group and a date with Argentina in the round of 32. But hey, they made it this far. Why not keep dreaming?
00:30:08
Speaker
Whereas for Uruguay, it's a difficult, delicate situation. They're on two points and they are not getting out of this group unless they get something against Spain. Do we trust Uruguay to get something against Spain? Can they get something against Spain?
00:30:23
Speaker
Given all the evidence, the answer is no. But there is just some of this third-day World Cup energy where you just don't know what can happen. And look, Spain might not want to run Uruguay can take them to that place. That's the thing we've always thought Bielsa could do, is Uruguay could drag you into a game you didn't want to play.
00:30:46
Speaker
It's really alarming that they couldn't do that against teams worse than them, but they don't really have the ability to drag... teams worse than them into that. They're much better, and this is, for a later day, the Kahneman ball way of these teams being effective against teams better than them. They're better at dragging good teams down to their style.
00:31:05
Speaker
So this has maybe been the moment Bielsa has been waiting for to see if his vaunted thing can can work. The issue is... Spain is like the worst, worst team to to try this against. So to me, the like you're just hoping Spain is not fully engaged.
00:31:23
Speaker
If they're like doing their passing little interchanges, good luck pressing. I just don't feel good about it. You you need them to be uninterested. And that is a bad place to be.
00:31:34
Speaker
And they shouldn't be uninterested because we just talked about what the stakes of this game are for Spain. They do need to win it because they certainly don't want to be playing Argentina more likely than not in the round of 32. Four team this group, of Saudi Arabia, they have to beat Cape Verde. But if they do, they'll go through because they'll be on four points because the point they snagged against Uruguay on the first day. Look, there are some good versus evil battles in this World Cup, right? I talked about this with Isaac Bushnell on the very first day of this tournament. He viewed Czechia.
00:32:01
Speaker
ah and and And South Korea on the first day is a good versus evil battle. Same thing with Czechia, South Africa. Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia is a good versus evil battle in this World Cup. of but but We can't have Cape Verde doing all of this and then throwing it away against one of our least favorite international teams on last match day. And look, Saudi Arabia can probably play with a team, the level of Cape Verde. Cape Verde are going to pressure on them for the first time in this tournament.
00:32:24
Speaker
They are. And it's not going to be as easy for Cape Verde to slide into that role. As you're saying, the only thing I feel good about is going back to calf qualifying and that keyboard was in this spot. They had to hold serve many times and they had to beat Cameron at home when the pressure was on them. And,
00:32:43
Speaker
There's a football part of it where, yes, they're going to have the ball and they should have the quality in the ball, but it'll be tricky. The mental side of it, I just feel like this team, i don't have as many questions about them. like I think they they're really going to embrace and playing with joy in this moment.
00:33:00
Speaker
Look, Saudi Arabia are one ball away from making this all super not fun. So you're going to have to watch. It's going good. And this was a game that we had circled as a World Cup after the arc candidate for game of the group stage. Now we get double barrel action on the last match day in this group. It's going to be really, really fun.
00:33:18
Speaker
The other group that we saw, Amit, was Belgium, Iran, and then Egypt, New Zealand. Let's start with Belgium, Iran. No Jeremy Doku for Belgium. He's out sick. That leaves them with really no spark and creation.
00:33:31
Speaker
but they're starting big Rom Lukaku up top for 90 minutes while he only played 60. What could possibly go wrong against a super committed, physical, low block? Answer, everything. This was all of our fears once again put on display from Belgium.
00:33:47
Speaker
Without Doku, there's just not that many dynamic playmakers. We've said they're slow and uninspiring in the midfield in terms of being dynamic. These guys can all pass, but Iran say, great, you can pass it all you want. Our block is deep. Our block is good.
00:34:02
Speaker
I think Salamakers on the right is the only guy here that can really eliminate a man off the dribble. And... yes, De Bruyne is dangerous. Chorsard is a high IQ player, but Raskin and T. Le Mans and Big Rom is waiting for service.
00:34:17
Speaker
But if he can get two on one every time from the Iranian center back perspective, there's not a lot going here. And then also, I think Mounier on one side, De Kuyper on the other side, like they're not quite getting up the field. They're not bombarding fullbacks. Like Belgium just look kind of slow. And we've we've said that about them. And Iran is not a particularly fast team. And so this game for long, long stretches in the first half was just kind of like a punting field position tilt battle of nothing. Like there there really wasn't a lot going on. Belgium had to squeeze, squeeze, squeeze for like set pieces. And that is a really ugly place to be.
00:35:03
Speaker
And Iran are to their credit. And as they have always been remarkably organized in defense, they defend as a unit.
Iran vs Belgium: Defensive Showdown
00:35:11
Speaker
The names don't jump out off the team sheet as individual defenders who are great. But when you collectively put them all together, when they are diving low to block out crosses, to block out shots, when they're getting into space, when they're playing physical, like they choke it off and they shut it down and they just make it really hard to put the ball in the back of the net. Like the Mati, Kalazada, Kanami, Hazafi, Ezra Talahi, all of these defenders are just collectively working together to choke off any sort of space, any sort of comfort.
00:35:39
Speaker
And you put all of that and then you mix in what was a really, really, really good goalkeeping performance from Ali Reza, who is one of their most important players. It's a recipe for seeing out a nil-nil draw like they did. And we'll get into the second half wackiness in a bit.
00:35:54
Speaker
But for the most of this first half, this was, as you said, Belgium squeezing really hard for chances. And on the few occasions that they get, chances being denied by Baron Vaughn. he He was excellent. And, you know, these are like shots from 12 to 20 yards out. They're hit well. They take good saves and they get good saves. And so this is just the whole, as you're saying, collective defensive performance from Iran was really good here. um You would have hoped for more on the counter in the first half. It was a bit one dimensional from Iran.
00:36:25
Speaker
But this game eventually, eventually opens up in the second. But there is one more first half moment that we have to mention. It's a fascinatingly good set piece routine from Iran. It looks like they're getting a a free kick. They get a free kick in a situation. And instead of trying to go over the wall or under the wall or through the wall, like we saw from Cape Verde, it's a variation of the Vought Van Kors goal from the last World Cup. It's this slip through ball to Toremi.
00:36:52
Speaker
He's in one-on-one with Courtois. He finishes. Courtois, also in this game, as we'll get to, was very good and made some huge saves for Belgium to keep this nil-nil but this is the one time he's beaten by Tremi, but he's offside by a butt cheek. Oh, so, so brutal.
00:37:08
Speaker
I mean, this is, it's also tough to, to show this routine and not score on it. Yeah. Um, you get it once, right? Once you've shown it, the people are going to be aware of it. Yeah, I mean, it's just um it's not um it is a bit unlucky, right? Like yeah Taremi is his back is to goal. Like he he can't really look down the line any more than he is. He's trying his best. It's just it's the margin of that much for him. um Man, this also like the the celebrations were good because i thought they had scored like it. It felt right that Iran was going to be one on that set piece. They like had Belgium where they wanted them. But I mean, no, the offsides is the offsides.
00:37:47
Speaker
Halftime, Aram bring on Ali Reza, Jachan Vash, to try and give a little bit more in attack. Somebody that they can pair maybe a bit with Taremi, who was obviously very isolated in the first half. They get a good chance about 10 minutes in. Taremi stabs a volley pretty well. It's right at Thibaut Coutois. It's too close to He's able to make the save.
00:38:03
Speaker
Rudy Garcia on the other end for Belgium is is pretty out of ideas here without Doku. He takes out the cards that he has. He puts Gaston on. Luca Bacchio comes on to try and be an individual take on guy. Don't think he was very successful.
00:38:16
Speaker
Vonneken comes on for crossing, some wing play, a second runner. the Raskin, Munier, and Salamakas come off. This eventually leads to the best sequence of the match for Belgium. And and their best play is De Bruyne gets loose over the top.
00:38:28
Speaker
Squares a ball towards big ROM and the rebound eventually falls to the Kuiper and at point blank range, he pokes it and it looks like it's going in and Baron Vaughn just stretches out his paw and is super, super strong. And the ball just ricochets off his hand and stays out.
00:38:42
Speaker
This was Baron Vaughn's best save and it's going to be a candidate for best save of the tournament. Best save the tournament is right. This is a three points saving type save. Really excellent at close range just because he only has one hand to give. So it has to be very, very strong.
00:38:57
Speaker
I mean, credit to him. Like this is this is an awesome play. This is where you saw Belgium. Despite their lack of speed, like this is how a high IQ play works is De Bruyne tapping into some of his off-ball movement to get free here. like this i think was their This is how Rudy Garcia and Kevin De Bruyne are like dreaming up goals for this Bellingham side. They get this sequence like once, and honestly, they maybe deserved a goal. like I don't even know the XG on this chance. This is a, again, cannot overstate how important of a save this was.
00:39:29
Speaker
And it finally feels like Belgium are starting to tighten the screws. Baron von makes another save from distance. It's like, okay, they're getting into this. They've got 25 minutes. Eventually, it feels like Iran are just going to break down and Belgium are going to be able to put one in the back of the day Mahdi Tarabi comes on for Iran. Milad Mohamedi comes on to to try and give them some left back protection against Luka Bakio.
00:39:49
Speaker
And 20 seconds after these guys come on, Iran back-press Nathan Ngoi, and he just misplays a back pass. And it's Mehdi Taremi, one-on-one, 40 yards from goal. And Ngoi just reacts, grabs him, pulls him down, and he's sent off.
00:40:03
Speaker
And that completely changes the context of this game down the stretch. Did Ngoi need to make this challenge? Could you have trusted Courtois one-on-one with Taremi from that distance? ah Probably. i mean, i don't know. the There's some math out here, some like ah ah analytics on the XG value of a red card.
00:40:24
Speaker
And like after 60 minutes, it's like negligible. but And we actually do see in after the 30 minutes, Iran versus 10-man Belgium don't generate that much. So like it is perhaps a worthy play. Yeah.
00:40:39
Speaker
I don't know. Like, Tremie's pretty good. do Do you think he's going to go score here? There's also a second defender. That's the thing is 40 yards out is a long way to go. Got a lot of legs. Like, he's going to to run fast to be able to get a very good chance. I don't know. I think it's ah it's a reactive move from Ngoi, right? Like, he's not processing the XG calculation of whether it was it or not. Like, like that's you. Like, he just, oh, no, got beat me. I got to stop him. And he does. And I think it has to be a red card because Tremie is very clearly in.
00:41:05
Speaker
And that changes this match not because... It makes Iran now the team piling on the pressure, but it's just one less guy for Belgium to use back the other way. And it kind of takes them a long time to reestablish that tightening of the screws process that they've done for the first 65 minutes.
00:41:22
Speaker
I think it's telling that Iran do not immediately assume the aggressor and the like taking over, tighten the screw themselves. They're pretty cautious in trying to approach the Belgium back line. They set up the shell and they don't really go anywhere in the middle. They don't overload. They just want to keep everything in front of them. And Belgium with 10 guys and your nine is Luca Bacchio. And, you know, now Telemans is like in the center back pivot and it's Vinak and De Brunna. Like,
00:41:52
Speaker
but Let's ask the question. Now's the time. Should Iran have been more aggressive in these 30 minutes against the Belgium backline? We know what happens. It's 0-0. There are chances both ways. I think the best chances here probably are 3-1 for Belgium, I think, in down this stretch. right Should Iran have been more aggressive in going for it?
00:42:14
Speaker
I think they probably should have, but I think you can understand why they weren't. And I think Galanoi didn't approach this terribly, right? He didn't immediately throw on attacking players and say, we're going to go for it.
00:42:26
Speaker
But he does slowly, cautiously make some attacking changes, right? Mo Conlu comes on in the 80th minute. Hosanzada comes on in the 85th minute, replacing Godos and Esatolahi. Those are attacking changes. They are on paper. They're trying to get more bodies in with Taremi.
00:42:39
Speaker
They were cautiously trying to be, you know, cautiously optimistic towards the end of this game. Could they have done more? Yes. Should they have done more? Probably. But they also, you have to remember, they don't have the data point of what's happened between Egypt and New Zealand.
00:42:55
Speaker
So they don't know exactly how that last game is looking. And so at the end of this all, as we'll get to, they're still in a situation where they draw their last game and they're probably going through. i think that's a situation Iran will find themselves comfortable in.
00:43:08
Speaker
They will. It just be nice if you had three points somewhere, right? Like, and your best chance for three points is 30 minutes against a 10 man team. I think to your point though, is that Iran don't have a style to be controlling of the game with the ball.
00:43:26
Speaker
At best, like we know they can be silky. It's not they don't have quality on the ball. They just don't really want to set up an overload. They want to attack with four players not getting out of position. And and they were very respectful of Belgium's counterattacking threat. And you want to say you shouldn't have been. But Belgium get moments here. And especially after something on Matias Fernandez Pardo, they're very lively the other way.
00:43:51
Speaker
Iran's number one goal in the end of this game was we are not going to get got the other way on a counter. We'll put people forward. I'll slowly make these attacking changes, but the number one goal here is to not let Belgium run at me two on two back the other way. And that was very clear, right? That was very clear that that was Gallinoy's number one objective.
00:44:09
Speaker
Not going to get beat the other way. We'll slowly but surely cautiously put some people forward, but we're not going to allow this to get out of hand. We're not going to let Luca Bacchio run at me one on one the other way. We're not going let Matthias Fernandes part of they get into into dangerous situations.
00:44:22
Speaker
And to their credit, they pulled that off. but Belgium do get a great look for the Kuiper. He shoots like an outside back on the great look that he got. ah But for Belgium, man, this is just another disappointing result.
00:44:34
Speaker
Now, they still have New Zealand in their last game. we'll We'll get to that in a sec, what they can do. They can run up the score and still somehow win this group. But you cannot be feeling good about this side based on what you've seen through two games.
00:44:45
Speaker
You have to remember Doku's not here, but the non-Doku pieces are just kind of flat. like De Bruyne and Lukaku are quality players, but at this point in their career, they can't really do things when the ball's not at their feet. I mean, De Bruyne does have a great off-ball run. He's a high-Q player, but he doesn't cover that much ground, and he can't dribble and take on.
00:45:09
Speaker
Big Rom is a service guy. I like Salamakers, but Without Doku, he's your primary chance creator. you're You're not doing that much. You're not doing that much. and then And then on top of all of that, the real, real weakness in this team is center back.
00:45:25
Speaker
Nathan Ngoi lays that very bare. He is not that fast. Neither is Brandon Mekele. I don't know what's up with Xenon DeBoss. We can look into that. But even as a group that's weak, and then on top of that, Ngoi's an inexperienced. Like, this is just... he's He only had four caps coming in this tournament. Doesn't have the chemistry. This is just a a rookie mistake here to to play this ball. And as we said earlier in the Uruguay game, look before you pass. Make sure you connect your passes backwards. You can't be giving up soft...
00:45:59
Speaker
no man's land passes when you're a defender. It's really frustrating. this This team is like pretty pedestrian. They are much closer to Czechia and Bosnia than they are to Netherlands or Germany. Like I i guess if Doku comes back, right, then he can drag them. He is that good.
00:46:19
Speaker
But I just don't feel good about this team being able to exert their will on the ball or having the or having the athletes at 11 positions to hang. And they're just not incisive enough scoring. And we've seen it now for two games, right? Against Egypt and against Iran, they just struggled to create point blank chances. Yes, they got a couple here and they were the victim of a couple of really good saves. But this is the World Cup. That's what happens. There's high level players all around this tournament, whether it's in goal or on back lines or wherever.
00:46:47
Speaker
You just have to be more and more incisive than Belgium have been. Last game, i mean our nightcap, New Zealand, Egypt in Vancouver. um Just a great game. Really, really fun. In the first half, New Zealand hung, and they can set piece, right? And they set piece Egypt
New Zealand vs Egypt: A Tale of Two Halves
00:47:02
Speaker
into a goal.
00:47:03
Speaker
Finn Sermon, the center back, very, very unmarked on this play. Eamon Asher ends up on the ground here. I think he was probably the guy who was supposed to be marking Sermon. But look, you cannot give a big, bulky center back a wide header on a set piece in the year 2026. When you do, this is what happens.
00:47:19
Speaker
Yeah, Asher and the Egypt team are asking for like an off-ball foul at the start. It's not like a pick play, though. It's not like he threw him to the ground. He just kind of bumps him and then runs across. Look, the second defender who's in charge of picking up the run once Asher has fallen is a two or three step slow.
00:47:36
Speaker
As you said, When you've got big slabs of of headers to throw at goal, like, you know, Finn Sermon's at the Portland Timbers. I think he's a decent player. There's a big deal for him making this team. He's an MLS level center back.
00:47:49
Speaker
I don't think he's great on the ball, but there is real value of New Zealand's physicality. And you see it here on this goal. They've very clearly been working on this exact kind of set piece. Like this is very good. And this is a tough thing for Egypt. though We're going to talk about this team as a whole, really good on the ball.
00:48:08
Speaker
I think there's a physicality issue on their back line versus just the kind of team um from, from New Zealand where they have four or five guys like this. This wasn't wood. This wasn't box. Like this is their third big guy. It's hard to mark three big guys in the box. Yeah. And the physicality was something that i think was on display a lot in this game. You saw the physical advantage that New Zealand had, and I think they tried their best to take advantage of it. They take them it a 1-0 lead into halftime.
00:48:35
Speaker
But coming out of the second half, it really felt like Hossam Hassan, the Egypt manager, said, all right, guys, enough of that. We are better than New Zealand. Let's play like it. And this felt like a very different performance from Egypt in second half.
00:48:49
Speaker
It was much more inspired and they just kind of revved up the counter press and revved up their attacking bodies. And look, it's a button anyone can press. But generally, when you do those things, you have to cover a lot of ground the other way.
00:49:02
Speaker
And it can be very hard when the other team's um running at you and you need the legs. You need the will to to to cover a lot of ground. And you also need to be able to suffocate the midfield. I think this was a really good game from Egypt's midfielders and outside backs and really overloading. And I think to a point being like, New Zealand's chaotic style is very, very hard to play against. We've talked about this many, many times. It's very unique. But saying, look,
00:49:29
Speaker
We know Wood can get his, but are we scared of New Zealand's forerunners? We just need to get a body back on them and they're not going to hurt us. And then once we realize we're not scared, to your point at halftime, let's just get everyone, pin them in and just go at them. No more of passing around.
00:49:47
Speaker
Go at them. get it wide, cross, dribble, make them backpedal. That is what you do against a team like like New Zealand that is good at defending, but doesn't have the quality to match you. I thought Egypt's movement, quality, IQ was very, very high in the second half.
00:50:04
Speaker
And the right side of Egypt is really where I think the breaking point comes. And it's Liberalo Kakache, the New Zealand left back, who just kind of gets put in jail for the back end of this game. He eventually gets pulled off. That's how bad it got. They have to call in Jesse Randall to to try and take that spot.
00:50:20
Speaker
This is Hani, Atia, Zico, and then obviously the overlaps from Salah, and they just kind of combine on a number of different plays. That's where the first goal comes, right? So so it's Atia in the midfield, sprays this ball wide. It's a perfect cross from Hani.
00:50:33
Speaker
And Egypt, like we saw from other teams at points in this tournament, they get these four-on-four situations, three-on-three in the box. There's three runners in the box for Egypt, and there's only two New Zealand center backs. And it's Zico who's at the far post.
00:50:46
Speaker
He's free to head. It's a powerful header. right off of Max Grokman's hands and in. This is just simply a mit a math equation. We have three guys. They have two guys. Somebody is going to be open. Get him the ball.
00:50:57
Speaker
And the way to stop these odd number the rushes at the back post is to stop the crosser. And this is where, yes, New Zealand are defending with eight, 10 guys back, but they're narrow. They're just, they're they're shelling. They're shelling. they're cut They're covering their ground. Well, when Hany is basically playing a right winger and then there's six guys centrally, you lose him.
00:51:20
Speaker
And it's a really good tactical piece of play from the manager and from Hany to camp out here. It's a great cross too. Like this is the difference to me between New Zealand and Australia's defense is that New Zealand just got pinned, pinned back and gave up. Like you don't see, you shouldn't be that open to cross from the edge of the box. Like you just shouldn't be. And credit to Egypt for getting this. Like it was really, really smart. And as we, as we talk about the second goal, this is like vintage Mo Salah takeover time.
00:51:53
Speaker
So firstly, i but the sprayed ball from Atio was huge, too right? Because he's the one who plays that ball into space for Hane to then get in and make the cross. That goal comes at the 58th minute. It really felt like New Zealand were just hanging on. And they know there's a water break coming. We just got to get there. Just got to get there. We can regroup. We can set up these lines in Egypt to their credit, push their advantage. They push their momentum. And the silkiness on this second goal from Zico and Salah on the right is so, so good.
00:52:20
Speaker
So it's Zico to Salah and then Salah back. And it's a backheel pass from Zico to Salah to score. And I thought, interestingly, there's a really good run from Hani on this play where he's making a wide run.
00:52:31
Speaker
That kind of freezes the defenders because they're thinking, oh, we can't get beat wide again. And then all of a sudden, Zico kind of goes against the grain and plays this backheel pass. It's such a good pass. And this is Mo Salah.
00:52:41
Speaker
This is peak Mo Salah. This is everything that Egypt have always wanted from this guy at this stage. And he delivers. He doesn't get to score this kind of goal often for Egypt. He didn't get to school score this goal that often this year for Liverpool, where he is at his most direct, is on the right, cutting in, playing off one-twos, getting on his left foot and shooting. Yes, we know if you're going analyze Salah. He likes to cut inside his left foot and shoot. But it's not so easy, right? He needs the defense in motion. And that is to your point on Hany, on Zico,
00:53:15
Speaker
if you're setting him up to play the way he wants, he can be ruthless. Like it was truly a joy. When's the last time we've seen Mo Salah look like this? It was awesome. um And he kind of takes over. This is the finish here. Looks easy, but it's so satisfying. As soon as that back heel comes off for Zico, you think, oh, it's Mo Salah's left foot.
00:53:35
Speaker
The corner's there. and he just strokes it in like he's made that finish a million times. Satisfying to see the superstar get his superstar moment. kind of felt like Egypt just cranked the dial up here and there was no response from New Zealand. So they finally get the water break, but even out of it it's still Egypt. and It's set piece success for the third. It's Mosul again with the delivery this time on a quarter. And Trezeguet is planted on the front post. And this is just too easy of a set piece to be conceding.
00:54:01
Speaker
Yeah, i it especially for the the physical center backs New Zealand have just missing the marking. And look, Saleh is a good set piece deliverer, too, on his left foot. So credit to them. i think the the big thing for New Zealand here is they've got a great game style. They know how to play it. It is hard to adjust to tactically. But through two games, teams have now seen it, know how to play with it.
00:54:24
Speaker
and their legs after 60 minutes are hard to keep up if you can make them defend in space. They've got some clear limitations in their midfield, in their back line. Like, yes, what is good, but they don't have enough to like pressure you to hurt you so that they can't just lock another team can't just lock them in.
00:54:43
Speaker
and they don't have the ability to hang onto the ball, right? Their attacking success comes from, we're going to lump it long, hold it up, run off it and go. They don't have the ability to string together consecutive passes in the midfield to make a play and to buy time for the defense. And outside of Elijah Just, the guys that they have running off of Chris Wood just aren't up to it, right? Macalit wasn't very good in this game.
00:55:05
Speaker
Sarpreet Singh has been really, really bad in two games in the 10 rule. And so what you're left with is, all right, we can always lump and run. and create chances that way. But teams are kind of figuring out, okay, Wood will win the first ball.
00:55:18
Speaker
As long as it's not just winning the second ball, we don't have to be too concerned. A key thing you said is when they can't settle with possession, they don't have time to breathe. And just that energy required. The first half of this game was so frantic. It was very fun as a neutral, back and forth and back and forth.
00:55:37
Speaker
But once you stop holding the ball, I don't think New Zealand have the elite legs to go back and forth for 90 minutes. That's what we're talking about. Those 15 minutes out of halftime when Egypt just constrict the python on them is really, really impressive. And look,
00:55:51
Speaker
Not every team can do that. Egypt are not like another African team like Senegal or Ivory Coast going to shut you down with the physicality of their midfielders. It's their energy was much better. I thought it was really, really key to just suffocating it.
00:56:06
Speaker
and think it's bad news for New Zealand to kind of a game and a half is what they've gotten from this style. They might need to be a bit more defend and countery instead of trying to run, run, run for 45 minutes.
00:56:17
Speaker
But it's very interesting as we kind of shift to the big picture in this group, Egypt top it on four points, right? They know that if they beat Iran in the last day, they will win the group. And that has a very welcoming path forward. It's that U.S. quadrant that we've talked about.
00:56:32
Speaker
If Egypt and Iran draw, then as long as Belgium don't score three against New Zealand, Egypt should win the group. Belgium are on two points. If they beat New Zealand, they'll go through. They'll probably need to score a number of goals as long as unless Egypt lose in order for Belgium to win the group.
00:56:50
Speaker
Iran on two, a draw probably puts them through. a win definitely does. New Zealand's sitting on one. They're going to need to beat Belgium to have any chance of getting out of this group. But New Zealand-Belgium, and this is the point I wanted to make,
00:57:01
Speaker
is a very interesting matchup because Belgium don't necessarily have that overall team speed to lock New Zealand in in this game, right?
00:57:12
Speaker
And so if New Zealand can just kind of take up a bunch of space and then, yeah, maybe you can get Elijah Just running off of a second ball against those center backs. I think there's a path here for New Zealand to make life tough for Belgium.
00:57:26
Speaker
There is a path. It's a tricky game. Belgium just have not shown that they've got a gear to put three past anyone. But this is a big game for Jeremy Doku, and perhaps he can solve it all.
00:57:37
Speaker
i I do think this is going to be a classic case of scoreboard watching. Egypt yeah should not be super conservative. um If it's like really to 70 to 80, then Belgium are not at two. Like, yeah, OK, maybe you're you're managing that a little bit conservatively.
00:57:54
Speaker
don't Don't put it to chance. Do not let Belgium win this group. Go beat Iran if you're Egypt. And it's interesting because I think Egypt will always have the fallback. Iran are always going to be content to play for a draw in this game, right? Unless you have Iran down a goal, like Iran aren't going for this. They're going to say, nil-nil is enough for us to get through. We're going to take that.
00:58:16
Speaker
And so Egypt, I think, can afford in this game, which we'll see. They can go for it. They can attack. They can press knowing that If it gets to a point where, like you said all right, Belgium aren't going to score three against New Zealand, they can always just flip the switch and say, Iran are going to let us pass around the back and play for a draw because that's a result that that fits them. i think it's a pretty good game state situation for Egypt to be in.
00:58:36
Speaker
They've earned it through two do match days. They've earned the better situation than Belgium. You'd rather be in this spot. Let's see. I don't think Belgium is going to, despite everything mean we've said about them and despite their insipid performance in two games, I don't think they're going to go out quietly. Like New Zealand also, I agree, can make it hard in Belgium. But as I'm saying from this tape, like I don't feel good about it. So this is going to be a very classic final day, I think.
00:59:03
Speaker
It is. And there's going to be a lot of permutations in score we're watching. But like you said, Egypt have the group in their hands. Do not let it slip at this point. Don't let Belgium back their way into winning this group because you couldn't get it done against Iran. Because I think Egypt should be able to run at Iran and put them in in dangerous situations in a way that Belgium really weren't in this game.
Third-Place Team Dynamics
00:59:22
Speaker
One last thing I want to do on this show, Amit, before we talk about today's action is a quick look at where we're sitting in third place because I don't think their calculus has really changed. We came into this tournament saying three minus two was the goal.
00:59:34
Speaker
I think that's still where the goal is. You look at eight groups done ah through two match days, obviously four to go. Group A with Czechia in South Africa, Group E with Ecuador and Curaçao, Group H, which is is Uruguay, you know Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde are hanging around there. i think those three groups are looking pretty questionable on the third place table.
00:59:53
Speaker
Those groups could all finish with their third place team with less than three points. That is probably going to be done for those sides. Czechia and South Africa obviously could win those games. This calculus can always change. In the middle section, we've got Group C, which we're probably looking at Scotland.
01:00:08
Speaker
Group D, which is Paraguay, Australia. And Group F with Sweden. Those groups are all going to have at least three points in third place. Group D could be four if Paraguay and Australia can get playing for a draw, right?
01:00:19
Speaker
Goal differentials are okay here, but they're all less than zero. These groups are going earlier, they're going to be interesting to see what happened to these groups. And they kind of feel like the swing groups group B. Meanwhile, Bozzi and Qatar. They play head to head. Somebody should get four and they should be in. If they don't, again, that's going to change the calculus and change the line because it would be another group with less than three points. And then group H could be anywhere from two to four points.
01:00:43
Speaker
Feels like it's another one of these swing groups. And I think three points is still the goal for these teams. Three points. but You also have to ensure that you're finishing in third place with those three points. It's going to be hard to track to the final day. I think the things that could wrench it are Czechia or South Africa stealing three would really change everything.
01:01:02
Speaker
And if somehow Bosnia and Qatar draw, then you're really getting into the the weird, weird situations. You're kind of penciling in that one of those teams is going to win, get to four and open it up. Look, I think the more you talk about it, Paraguay in Australia should should kind of settle for that draw. But I'm i'm not necessarily sure. We're going to see how that game goes. Let's see also how today goes. I feel like after 12 second days are in, we're going to have a very clear picture. that The thing we have to mention again, and we've said this before multiple times, the Teams going last are going to have such an information advantage. So you really don't want to be settling for the goal difference. If you're in the earlier games, you're trying to get to four or above the the three cut line. Don't leave it to chance.
01:01:44
Speaker
What we saw, like I think the best example of this is what we saw in CAF qualifying, right? Where Nigeria make the CAF playoff by virtue of goal differential because they knew how many goals they needed to go get. So if you are Scotland and you're saying, all right, I think three minus two is going to be sufficient or whatever.
01:02:00
Speaker
It might not be because you don't know. And once you get all of these second matchday results and you can kind of parse that out and feel like, do you really want to leave team X with a chance to chase goals at the end of the game and put you out?
01:02:11
Speaker
We'll see what all comes of with it. It's a really difficult equation to try and manage. All right, close this out a minute. We've got four more games on the docket today. It starts with Argentina, Austria with a midday kickoff, France, Iraq, Senegal, Norway, Algeria, Jordan. I think there's only one place to go for you with this slate of games.
01:02:28
Speaker
You know what it is. It's Senegal, Norway, the football hipster game of the group stage. Not even hipster at this point, but look, it's not two of the the biggest teams. This is a dark horse off. We had described this in big red circle before the tournament started. Winner of this group or winner this game is going to feel very good about getting through. Loser is going to be a problem in the bracket. I feel pretty good that Whoever loses this game is not necessarily going to be on the ropes of getting out. So there's some of that Germany ivory coast potential of just two good teams throwing punches at each other. These are two good teams. It's a great clash of styles. I think Holland is electric. He's in form. You see that verticality from Norway.
01:03:14
Speaker
Senegal's got good physical center backs. They've got the better midfield. Can they unseat Norway on the ball? I think also, you know, goals are going to happen and then the teams are going to respond like this should be up, you know, and interesting till the end. I don't really feel that this is going to peter out and be be be dull. So just just really, really excited to see what happens.
01:03:37
Speaker
It's super interesting because for all that we've bigged up Senegal and we liked their performance against France, they're still on zero points. Like they've only played one game. They lose this game and they're going to go into that Iraq game on the last match day with a ton of pressure, having to win and having to manage where their goal situation is. It's a really interesting proposition that I'll go Argentina-Austria to start the day off. I think the the stylistic clash of energy drink soccer against the silkiness of the Argentine midfield, can those legs for Austria put off some of the less leggier Argentine midfields who can make a pass?
01:04:08
Speaker
think it's a really interesting, I'm backing Argentina in this game, but I'm interested to see it. I'm with you. And I obviously i love Austria. I was not impressed with them in their first game.
01:04:19
Speaker
I still believe in that concept of this model can give Argentina's slow midfield problems. But everyone else in Argentina is a high level. And the striker is a big issue here. So maybe if Marco Arnautovic is feeling himself, we could get somewhere interesting You also have to watch this game because if Cootie Romero and Mark Arnautovic are on the field at same time, who knows what could happen. um I'm feeling a little skeptical about Austria, but hey, I always can fall back and say they were once my my Dark Horse faves. Let's see. It should be a great clash of styles, too.
01:04:48
Speaker
Firework guaranteed, Ardadovic, Kudu Romero. I think the late night game is is interesting too with Algeria because I think they're managing their goal situation, right? They're on minus three. You think you win this game? They need to win it. They probably need to win it scoring a bit of a bit here to to fix that goal differential and put themselves in a better position. That group is the last group to go. So Algeria-Austria going to be the last game on the third match day.
01:05:10
Speaker
Going to meet an information advantage, obviously, for Algeria. It'll be interesting. It is. I really like Algier, but Jordan, to me, were very impressive in that first game on the counterattack. I think Algier are in for a tough one. This is it's going to be hard to get multiple goals. They want to.
Upcoming Matches & Podcast Support
01:05:25
Speaker
But first, you just have to win.
01:05:27
Speaker
I'm kind of feeling decent about Jordan just being difficult. They were impressive in how they did that and in game one. France should put a lot of goals past the rock. Let's see how motivated France are to play. If you've got Kylian Mbappe golden boot hopes, this is the game you're really counting on for for that number to to just skyrocket. All right, that's it for Amit and I. You know where to find us. Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Patreon.com slash WCAD. I've done the promo on all the podcasts. if If you've made it to this podcast, you know where to find us. You know how to support us. We'll be back later tonight with a recap all of today's action. Enjoy the games today and take care.