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WCAD 4-26: Tommy Tactics Strikes for England
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The guys start the show with a deep dive into England's 0-0 draw with Ghana before tackling aging Croatia pulling out a 1-0 win over Panama. Then, it's time to give Cristiano Ronaldo his due as Portugal thrash Uzbekistan 5-0 before closing with a look at Colombia's frenetic 1-0 win over DR Congo. Plus, a Ghanaian witch doctor cursed Harry Kane, and it worked!
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Transcript
Introduction and Show Kickoff
00:00:01
Speaker
There are times when I like to start the show with a good intro, right? You try to hook the people in. You try to recap the day's story. You try to paint a good picture of what happened at the World Cup.
00:00:12
Speaker
But sometimes, a bit I feel it's best to just kind of wind you up and and let
England vs. Ghana Match Analysis
00:00:17
Speaker
you go. So England nil, Ghana nil. It's Tommy Tukey Tactics. Yeah, this is a frustrating one. Obviously, if you've been listening to the show, I've had a lot of England stock. It's not great to draw against Ghana, who just got a new manager right before this tournament.
00:00:32
Speaker
But ah that's how the cookie crumbles. This was a very, very frustrating performance. We're about to talk about it a lot today. Welcome to World Cup After Dark. And I'm very excited to talk about it. I think ah my my overall top take is I'm not concerned about England, but I'm annoyed at Tuchel and I maybe shouldn't have expected anything else.
00:00:53
Speaker
As Abit said, it's the World Cup After Dark podcast. He, of course, is Abit Malik. I am Austin Miller, and there's no place for us to start. Look, we'll get to Ronaldo, right? He's back. Look, I could use the Cornelius Fudge reference twice in a season of World Cup After Dark. Wow, what a lucky man I am. ah But we'll get to Ronaldo being back or just playing Central Asian teams. or You know, we'll we'll we'll dive into that in a bit.
00:01:16
Speaker
But we have to start with England because... I bet they fooled us a little bit, right? They they were expansive. They were expressive. They kind of put the hammer down and beat Croatia for two.
00:01:28
Speaker
And you're thinking to yourself, maybe we were wrong about Tommy Tuchel. Maybe his team's going to play a little bit. Maybe they're going to impress us. And then faced with the... Bus park of bus park that is Carlos K. Ross. They came out and pretty much for 80 minutes of this game felt like they didn't have any ideas and they weren't that interested in revving it up to break it down.
00:01:54
Speaker
And Ghana were more than content to let the game play out that way. And that's just kind of where we found ourselves on this Tuesday afternoon. Yeah, England were very cautious, very conservative in a very tuco way.
00:02:06
Speaker
He keeps Gordon at left ah wing. He keeps Noni Madweke at right wing. He puts in Jed Spence, who is a little less attacking than Nico Riley, who had been at left back.
00:02:17
Speaker
So he's kind of protecting against the threat gonna have on the counter. And that threat is, go ahead. 34-year-old Jordan Ayew. Like, that's what we're scared of here. We're like, oh can't give that guy too much space.
00:02:31
Speaker
Yeah. And he's also worried about Semenyo and Williams and you Thomas Partey is back. So there's a little more threat, but generally Ghana is not looking to, Ghana is looking to to harass and counter and buy themselves time when they can. But really, as you said, this is the double parked bus of all buses. And so it's just confounding from the start, the lineup. Right. And I think there's something sure with Bukaya Saka is not a hundred percent healthy. don't think he's got 90 minutes in him yet. He's got to come in, but Gordon particular against a low block, really ineffective. Spence, you know, you wanted him for Semenyo. I understand that one.
00:03:06
Speaker
In general, England are just not willing to commit to breaking down this block. They're very, very safe. It's very frustrating how long it takes Tuchel to get this thing up for the players to rev it up. And Harry Kane was was really struggling to find the ball. This is just a lot of Gehi and Kansa and Rice and Anderson and sometimes Bellingham. At the end of the day, most the attacks get to Mudeweke on the right, and he's...
00:03:34
Speaker
half taking on his man, half playing for corners. it's It's really, really still, it's a really, really bad watch, honestly, because Ghana are not really doing anything the other way. It's what, like 0.1 to 0.0 XG at the half, something like heinous like that.
00:03:51
Speaker
you ah You undercut Thomas Tuchel a little bit there. I mean, it's 0.27 0.00 from Ghana in the XT at the half. And it felt like that, right? Like those numbers perfectly encapsulated this. I think what was interesting from England is as you mentioned, all right, they're playing a bit for corners.
00:04:08
Speaker
I didn't think they were super effective. on set pieces. They had one very good set piece chance where I thought rice played a perfect ball at the far post that Elliot Anderson. like it was a really well designed set piece where Anderson kind of comes out of nowhere. So got to set up all their set piece defense. And then Anderson makes his late run from really outside the box.
00:04:26
Speaker
Rice put the ball perfectly on him. That I think was their best set piece chance. Other than that, I didn't think their set piece delivery was all that great. I didn't think what they did was all that great. There was one set piece opportunity where It felt like they were all running the block for Harry Kane. And then nobody went and got the ball and the ball just kind of got cleared out of play. I didn't think their set pieces were as effective as they, as we kind of expected from them. And that being the case meant that until Tuchel finally makes the changes, there's just no real threat here.
00:04:57
Speaker
Yeah, he's trying to basically score with just set pieces. Is it really for 60 plus minutes? It's really frustrating. I'm with you. And I thought in general, beyond that, the delivery was just poor all day. Whether that's Madueke, Rhys James is not really getting in the ball. Rice and Anderson aren't hitting balls into the box. They're not really flooding numbers in the box, right? So it's just very, very safe passing and not much happening.
Game-Changing Moments in England's Match
00:05:24
Speaker
look eventually at halftime and in the first 15 minutes, second a half, you and I, and everyone, this guy's in the studio, the fans in the stadium, you know, Thomas Tuchel's, you know, partner, I don't know, like i as texting him the subs to, to get in It's, It's Bukaya Saka and Marcus Rashford. And we don't get Rashford until the 80-plus minute. We eventually get Saka. And he leaves Madueka on to go to the left. He yanks Gordon. We also get Nico O'Reilly in at left back for Spence. And look, this helps. But even from 60 to 80, England are not quite turning the screw. It's pretty passive.
00:06:00
Speaker
And then they do bring on Rashford it and it feels like for 10 minutes, like, oh, you can do that for 10 minutes. You should have that for more of the game. They do. However, admit, get one sequence. That is the sequence. And it's the sequence that should have won this game. Right? So a header from O'Reilly just pings off the bar. Probably unluckily, like it's a really good chance could have been in the back of the net.
00:06:21
Speaker
comes off the bar and the rebound falls in the box and it's kind of sitting there, right? Like it's going to be sitting there. It's all happening in slow motion. And there's an England player that comes up to it. And look, there's 26 guys in the England squad, right?
00:06:33
Speaker
You can pick one of those 26 guys for this ball to bounce to. You're picking H dot Kane, right? It's Harry Kane's moment. Ball falls to him and he skies the chance. And it's like,
00:06:44
Speaker
Oh, they played the whole game for that moment. And that was going to be, oh look, we got our one chance and we took it. We won one nil. Good job, boys. And Kane missed. It's pretty inexplicable. I mean, the XG on this chance ends up being 0.3, but it felt like 0.8, 0.7. I mean, listen, we we can't like argue with the models. We're not going to do that here. But you and I and everyone also thought that was going in. Thomas Tuchel thought it was going in. Watch his reaction after the play, and he's in bewilderment. So is everyone. And I just think he...
00:07:16
Speaker
Part of the way he has operated this England squad is that if I generate a shot in the box for Harry Kane, he's going to be pretty automatic. And it's kind of got that feeling like Messi, like Mbappe, like Holland. Kane has that superpower. And then when he does it, it's really, really frustrating. And look, the the truth of it is like England, I think on the whole,
00:07:39
Speaker
create enough to to win this game sometimes not all the time if you want to win this game more of the time you have to have more than 10 minutes of kicking Ghana's butt because they did in 10 minutes when Sokka comes on and Rashford comes on Sokka is immediately demanding a double team he's getting good crosses in he can go byline he can cut in now Jude's got somewhere to go Rashford I thought was excellent He gets the ball on his right foot on the left wing, and he just is pinging crosses into the box all the way over to Saka. He's shooting, and then if you overplay it, he was taking on. And then Nico O'Reilly now is basically just another guy in the box to hit crosses to.
00:08:19
Speaker
Morgan Rodgers is also on at this point. Eze is on at this point. Rodgers, I thought, was really effective in just trying to... ask a question of the Ghana back line Ghana for 60 minutes was defending but they weren't scrambled they weren't under pressure and it was like if you can do this for more than 10 minutes why didn't you was he just too scared does he just like testing the waters did he did he does he truly just want to win the game 1-0 I think my end assessment here is that Tuchel managed this like his second game out of
Ghana's Defensive Strategy
00:08:53
Speaker
seven or eight. He managed this like day two in the league. He was like, look, this is my starting lineup. I'm going to play my tactics and then i'm going to see what happens versus Carlos Karras is like, this is our World Cup final. This point is everything to us.
00:09:08
Speaker
These guys don't know me. I don't know them, but like we are in this till the end. And at some point you have to give credit, right? Ghana wanted to defend that point more than England wanted three. And like, that's just the the way it looked. That's the way it was.
00:09:24
Speaker
And you have to tip your cap to Carlos Karros, right? I know we did it after the Panama game, but to do what they did against Panama and then follow that up with what they did today. Like, look, this is a team that you and I were out on. We were wholeheartedly out on this Ghana team. We said, there is no way that you can get this team to be organized and to defend in lines and blocks and commit.
00:09:46
Speaker
And they did. And the chance that England got was because of good play. And yes, England do kind of put them under pressure at the end of this game. That was always going to be the case. But it's it's with little enough time left that Ghana are able to survive and hold out and get this point.
00:10:01
Speaker
Could you have asked for a bit more on the counter? Yes. Gonna have to make some attacking subs kind of on on the hour mark of this game simply because IU and Williams don't really have anything left.
00:10:12
Speaker
And I think Prince Adu and Abdul Fatou, not great attacking options. Got his best chance of the match. And it comes to Prince Adu who gets played through and he just takes a terrible first touch. And then his shot is eventually blocked by Semeny. There's a penalty shot here that we didn't really get a bunch of looks at, but it kind of felt like gay. He maybe took a do out and there could have been a call here. That would have been a game changer.
00:10:37
Speaker
Upon further review, he definitely took him out. My ah understanding is that was this offside somewhere in the play? That was what I heard. It was unclear. Go ahead. Yeah. So so the play was called offside because when a new shoots, some menu has already gotten behind the goalkeeper and it colliders. It's really unlucky because he kind of makes this off the ground poke. And if some menu doesn't block it, if his own guy doesn't block it, it might go in the back of the So that's where the offside comes in. But a dude was onside on the initial play. So it should have been a penalty.
00:11:07
Speaker
And the infraction is before the offsides, right? So this is a bit of misground. I think, look, I don't like love getting into the ref discourse, but that feels like a miss. I thought in general, the referee was, was poor on the whole and Ghana.
00:11:24
Speaker
really towed the line in terms of just being really aggressive and handsy with England whenever they could have. And then whenever England was handsy and aggressive with them, flopping and taking fouls, like England flopped too. Like there were bad calls both ways. I don't actually think he was one-sided. He was just poor, but Ghana made this a very difficult game to officiate. I thought IU was just a nuisance all day. So was Williams and So it was just about everyone. I mean, Asari pulls out a bunch of tricks to to to waste time like this was some real dark magic from from Ghana.
00:11:56
Speaker
Yeah, we thought Asari might be a weak link here, right?
Croatia vs. Panama Match Breakdown
00:11:59
Speaker
He's a goalkeeper, second string goalkeeper playing domestically in Ghana. That is just a calf red flag. Like I've seen enough calf qualifying to know that that's generally a red flag. He was good. He's big. He commanded his box. He he didn't get caught out in any of the set pieces.
00:12:12
Speaker
Yeah, that was the the biggest thing is a set pieces where you youd try to make it a weakness. The only thing you could say is that England should have tested him more and tried to get more shots up. I mean, they end up with a shot total that's not like crazy off in this game.
00:12:26
Speaker
I think they take they only but they only get three shots on goal and like that's maybe not enough. Look, the other thing we we missed on this Harry Kane sitter, right? How if we were 12 minutes into World Cup After Dark, we missed the headline that a few days before this, someone in Ghana, witch doctor, has cursed Harry Kane. And sometimes you just got to put your hands up and say, well done to everyone for getting this narrative perfect. I mean, how else do you explain that miss either? There's something about this whole thing that like –
00:12:57
Speaker
Either this is showing like England's and Tuchel's flaws, his approach and the England like don't have that care mentality or it's just a, you know, a bump of the road. to The players all and Tuchel all seem to be saying like, yeah, it happens. And I want to believe that as an England stock haver. But it's just like the I don't know. where how How do you end up on it?
00:13:22
Speaker
It's all fun and games until it happens in the round of 32 and it's DR Congo on the other side. And before you know it, you're in a ah high pressure penalty shootout, right? Like this is forgivable to happen at this stage once, but I think it's a concerning sign. Again, I'm with you.
00:13:37
Speaker
We shouldn't be concerned about England because what they did in the last 10 minutes was enough to win this game. And you simply just extrapolate that out and you say, do that for more time. You will have success. But I don't know that I trust Tuchel to do that for more time. And look, if he's playing this style because he's scared of 34-year-old Jordan Ayew and Inyaki Williams running at him, like the counterattacking threats are going to get better and better as this tournament goes on, right? There's going to be more to ask questions of them.
00:14:04
Speaker
So I don't know. I'm... I'm cautiously concerned about England. Like, I think the pieces are there for this to work. I don't know if they're going deployed correctly. You remember early in the tournament, Amit, when we talked about the the Cape Verde-Spain 0-0 draw, right? we We really credited Cape Verde for only committing one foul in that game.
00:14:22
Speaker
24 fouls for Ghana in this one. Took a different route. Yeah, there's there's two ways to do it, right? Look, at the end of the day, like... I think the jury's out on England and I think anyone listening, obviously like we both like this team. we both picked them to to make the final. yeah I think at this point um we would probably still have them in the quarterfinal. It's going to be hard dicey. I mean, let's see if it's England, Argentina. I'm feeling a little bit worse about that game, but,
00:14:51
Speaker
You know, we we were in the ballpark. I think we both have to admit, like, I remember us being like, is this going to work with Carlos Carlos? There's no way. Right. And through two games, they're on four points and they have and yet and they got a point off England like their their last games against Croatia. They could get through in second.
00:15:10
Speaker
it's, is the world cup magic. And look, I've seen it before with Keros. Did he ever get out of the group in any of his three runs with Iran? But like, I don't think he could not get out on four points here, right? They're like almost certain to get through. Yes, definitely going to get through. it Sorry. I did a nonverbal nod. No to admit there. And he totally got my point, but unfortunately all the listeners at home didn't get my point because they can't see me. So no Keros never got out of the group with Iran at the world cup, but it looks like all the successful things that they were able to do. I don't think they really have enough to trouble teams on the counter. They're going to need to try and unlock in Yaki Williams a bit more. But look, this was as big of a dog as you can come up against. And for 90 minutes, they kept them in the bag.
00:15:51
Speaker
Yeah. And look, you try this again in a knockout, a team like England or whoever you tried against is going to get not only 10 minutes, even if you survive that long, they get extra time too.
00:16:02
Speaker
But Just the belief to buy yourself into that game. And maybe it's not England. Like, it's funny that Keros came in and said all these things about what he was going to do for the the Federation and for sport and development in Ghana and bringing in players. And we saw right through that. And...
00:16:20
Speaker
He's done exactly what we thought he was going to do. And it worked. That to me is just the the funniest part. Look, there's some luck for sure. There's some luck. He was a zero zero with Panama for 90 minutes write and a back and forth and crazy game.
00:16:33
Speaker
But look, I'm not going to say deserving or not deserving. But if there was a character that could sprinkle that World Cup pixie dust, it could be Carlos Kairos. Absolutely. and look, nobody's buying the, Oh, we're going to play attacking. I'm not a defensive manager. I just get with nobody. You're a defensive manager. We
England's World Cup Prospects
00:16:49
Speaker
all know it. Final point on this game for me, Amit, we talked about England, kind of the big picture as this world cup bracket starts to take shape, right? They're looking at a third place team in the round of 32. There's a lot of possibilities for who that could be.
00:17:05
Speaker
Then they're looking at Mexico in the round of 16 It could be, you know, Brazil in the quarterfinals. It could be Ivory Coast. It could be Norway. They're going to have a gauntlet to get through, right? I don't think there's a a clear path here. Mexico in Mexico City in the round of 16. It's a really difficult game. So I think just file that all the way.
00:17:22
Speaker
Other game in this group. I mean, yeah, one more from you. No, just DR Congo is going to do this better. Mexico at home is going to do this better. Like, yes, it is a gauntlet gauntlet.
00:17:33
Speaker
Other game in this group, a 1-0 win for Croatia over Panama. I think this was a bit more fun than we expected, Amit, but we do have to clarify here that fun doesn't necessarily mean good.
00:17:45
Speaker
Yeah, this was really and just a level of this game was not quite where it should have been. Panama ran at Croatia over and over again. They got runners in behind Croatia, tried to do things on the ball. They were trying to take advantage of space and neither team was quite good enough to capitalize on getting what they wanted from the game set. I thought both teams kind of got the things they wanted.
00:18:09
Speaker
but it wasn't working. And that made to a very open, like this is one of the most up and down games I think we've had in the whole tournament. It was, but it didn't necessarily come with chances, right? And that was the thing. it was It was up and down between the two boxes, and then the in-box play was not very good here. at Panama, as you said, they obviously found a bunch more space here than they did against Ghana. They found some joy, but they were just unfortunately completely dry in the final third.
00:18:35
Speaker
ah Croatia's best chance in the first half is a late shot from Batarina, who I think has had a really good tournament for Croatia. I think he's been kind of their brightest spot here. Mosquera got down and saved it. And then in the second half, Croatia really i admit they make the first, and and I'm kind of venturing to say only complete play of this game, right? It leads to the goal.
00:18:53
Speaker
It's Posilic and Stanisic interchanging. Posilic plays a great backheel. Stanisic gets a ball across, and it's big Ante Budimir who had come on as a halftime substitute who finishes it. This is what happens when you make a complete play in a game like this. You create a really good chance, and you take advantage of it.
00:19:10
Speaker
Yeah, this is Croatia just getting the most out of what they have. I think Paslick is a player that I kind of was a little bit skeptical of in this 11, thought it was a bit of a weak link. This is the moment of quality in the game on the backheel. Look, Stanisic is a good player. he's He's got that pedigree, great cross in.
00:19:27
Speaker
you know, Peter Musa was good in game one. This was a really good sub, I think, from Vlatko Dalic to get Budimir on at halftime. He's just a little bit more experienced, a little bit taller. Musa is a little bit more of a runner energy guy. And it's just that that run to the back post. It all kind of looks good when it comes off. And that was the only, as you said, the only play that came off in this game. But Croatia is in the game where the game was open if someone was going to do something it was them right that's just the risk panama we're living with over and over again and it was frustrating for them because i thought they they basically did everything they could in this game and and the last game too like they ran ran ran that just as you said wasn't there and the personnel right in the final third you said this to me before the podcast it almost never felt like they were going to score
00:20:17
Speaker
Yeah, I think Panama could have still been playing as we're recording this and they probably wouldn't have put the ball in the back of the day. And there just wasn't that finisher in it. and And that just put them in bad situation in both games, right? That's what we saw against Ghana. That's what we saw as well here.
00:20:30
Speaker
After the Croatian goal, Panama, I think, have their best moments of the match and they make a couple of good plays and they finally create chances and they finally almost take chances. But it's big Dominic Lavakovic, who time and time again has come up big for Croatia. He came up big here again. He makes a couple of big saves on Murillo and on Harvey on what are Panama's best chances of a match.
00:20:49
Speaker
And then there's a very poorly timed water break for Panama. Just cuts their momentum right at the legs. And it felt like coming out of that, they never really recovered that momentum. And they didn't really ask enough questions of Lavakovic after that. But in this moment, they did. And the Croatian goalkeeper came up big.
00:21:05
Speaker
He did. This it was a real frenzy. And I'm with you that the momentum was definitely killed by the break. Look, Lavakovich is kind of a point stealer or a three-point stealer in this circumstance. He was really good against England. He he was good here.
00:21:19
Speaker
He's springy. He's just got that reaction to, like... As we think about Croatia as a team, I think on the day, their oldness and their legginess in the bad way, legginess was very evident, right? A team like Panama shouldn't be running you up and down the field, but Lavakovic is the X factor. It's like they can play...
00:21:45
Speaker
okay for 89 minutes and have that one moment like it's still the same way they scored two goals in the first game too right it's all just like the little ingredients that that shows you the danger from this team like i wouldn't want to be in a shootout against that guy and he's exactly the type of guy that can you know maybe you put up 1.5 to xg and he steals you a game panama in the second half like created almost enough right almost But when they did, he was there to to take it away. Croatia are just good enough to where you don't want to just you. You're too afraid to to write them off to kill them off from this story, right? You're too afraid to put them off for dead.
00:22:26
Speaker
This really shouldn't be working at this point. Like Modric, I think, has finally very clearly dropped a level in the midfield. And today in particular, he had a couple of plays that just weren't what you would expect from Luka Modric against an opponent like Panama. Kavacic kind of the same story. The defense was good here. Obviously Stanisic had a big role to play on the goal.
00:22:45
Speaker
Batsirina, who we mentioned, was kind of their their best player. Parasic is another one of those old leggy derogatory guys. there's just It just feels like we're just getting towards the end of this. And and the question kind of is, is there one more turn back the clock performance coming in the knockout round to spoil somebody's World Cup?
00:23:05
Speaker
It could be depends on the matchup. The other thing is like Kromerich starts this game and I really like him as a player. He's similar to Paris, such high IQ guy, but he's just not as mobile to to finish off those plays. So he comes off at halftime for Gavardial. And that just kind of sparks the buildup at the back and their athleticism in the back.
00:23:25
Speaker
It's a weird, like half the guys of the team are a bit young, not half, but some of the guys, the team a bit younger can run. Some of them are old. Yeah. i I mean, do you got some paths for me? Like, where is it? It depends on how this thing spits out for how this group finishes for where Croatia could go second or third.
00:23:42
Speaker
Yeah, so they're probably going to be the runner up in this group and they will probably play the runner up of the Columbia Portugal group. We'll see how that all shakes out when all is said and done there. And that's going to be a high level round of 32 game. And then from there, it's probably a high level round of 16 game against Spain.
00:23:58
Speaker
And as we shift talking about this group, so Caracer on three points, they'll play Ghana head to head. If they beat Ghana, they're runner up. If Ghana draw that game or win, they would be runner-up.
00:24:09
Speaker
England should win the group. They have a better goal differential than Ghana. The only way Ghana win the group is if England don't beat Panama or if Ghana outscore Croatia by way more than England score against Panama. So that should be a third-place matchup for England.
00:24:21
Speaker
And then the Ghana-Croatia team. It's interesting because where this third-place team in this group is spitting out, you're probably looking at matchups against the Colombia-Portugal-DR Congo group. Regardless of how it goes, those are going to be tough tests for whoever comes out of this group.
00:24:36
Speaker
Yeah, I think Croatia against Colombia can find something and not be out of that game. If it's Croatia-Portugal, based on, as we're about to talk about, Portugal, like, wouldn't necessarily back them.
00:24:47
Speaker
We'll see. It's close. I think Ghana, based on the Panama game, based on Croatia, based on all all the data points we have, like, Ghana should back themselves to kind of run through Croatia a bit more and be less blocky than they were against England. Like, I know it's dangerous the second Ghana open up, but, like,
00:25:06
Speaker
They have a little bit more quality than Panama do. And I Panama just seems or sorry, Croatia just seemed right to get got. And they did in that second half against England. But if Panama was like five percent better, they're also getting got here, maybe.
00:25:19
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. I think so. So we'll see how it all ends. And and if we can finally count this creation generation out, feels dangerous to do, but just again, based on what we've seen, it kind of feels like it.
00:25:30
Speaker
All right, Chris Joe Ronaldo,
Ronaldo's Performance Against Uzbekistan
00:25:32
Speaker
it's your time. I know you're a big world cup after dark listener. He's probably got us ah locked up and loaded on the bus ride back to the airport or the flight home. And he's been thinking, 25 minutes. These guys haven't really even talked about me yet. All right, Christiana, here you go.
00:25:45
Speaker
A five nil win for Portugal against Uzbekistan. And the man himself said it. i admit he is back.
00:25:53
Speaker
You know, we're eating crow on this podcast. We're eating some England crow. We're eating some Carlos Carlos crow. Austin saying I didn't eat any England crow. He's an England skeptic. Look, I'm eating crow. I'm not eating Ronaldo crow. What did I say on yesterday's podcast? I said Ronaldo was scoring twice and he was going ruin their World Cup because he was going unbenchable. I'm spot on. My prediction is 100%
00:26:15
Speaker
Speak for yourself. You are spot on. And look, I'm not saying he wasn't going score, but I just, you know, I was very, very mean to him after their ah zero, their one, one dear Congo. I think the words I said was he did nothing in this game. And I stand by that. and But he did not do nothing in this game. This was not a bad performance for him. He was actually plus contributions as the nine. And that is like, you know, the truth of it. You know, i think it's it's important to be fair that like when he plays well, he's got good chemistry reading the front line with his guys. I thought in space today, he he was very effective in punishing the the very weak center backs from Uzbekistan. Now,
00:26:59
Speaker
you know, the plus side, the good side out of the way, there's a whole air about the day and about him and about Bobby Martinez that just kind of smells to the point you were saying that you just said. Tell tell me why it feels that way. Because it's just like this doesn't fix it. Like, OK, yeah, cool. You really took a Central Asian team that is probably in between the 40 and 48th best team at this World Cup out behind the woodshed like,
00:27:27
Speaker
golf clap, right? For your results. It's like, I would like to see you do it against a legitimate team because you played a legitimate team in your first game and it didn't go very well. Cristiano Ronaldo also just like fed the entire meme ecosystem today, right? So he gets the first chance and he flubs on it like it's a really good chance and he flubs on it and he does the oh I was so close thing and you're just like this dude is just goofing and and you think to yourself oh is it gonna be another day like that and and then unfortunately it was not another day like that because ah he gets the second chance and it's great moving across and looky there he scores and this was legitimate good movement this was everything you've been hoping that this guy does
00:28:08
Speaker
It was. And look, they were able to get more service in the box because there was more space from Uzbekistan. I thought Cancelo was good. Mendez was good.
00:28:19
Speaker
Bruno Fernand is good. Like, Vitinha and Neves obviously are taking over in a game like this. In general, Portugal just were much more direct at flooding the wide zones and getting service in, and especially introducing verticality into the game. Look, some of that is that they were, like, Diarcaro didn't let them the first time. yeah but it was so much more static. It was the shell, the possession shell, much more willing to throw guys forward in this one. And it was better. And Ronaldo to his credit, like really smelled blood in the water as he's wont to do. he kind of knows when he plays it
00:28:53
Speaker
team of the level that he could score at he is like much more active finding his shot in the box versus dear congo he was just waiting for the ball to come to him and he steals a chance that he shouldn't have in this one i thought his his movement was excellent and it was like oh yeah he could be a really good nine sometimes and then you kind of look at his goal scoring record in the past year for portugal and where those goals are coming against um and it's like Is it mean of us to say that he's just kind of this is the level for him?
00:29:24
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I don't know. It kind of feels like it does. And it's also interesting because he gets to play the look. I'm even a good teammate card, too, on the second goal where Portugal run what is genuinely a really, really good free kick routine where they win a free kick in a very dangerous spot and they just kind of big up the whole occasion, right? It takes forever for the Uzbekistan wall to get set up.
00:29:47
Speaker
Ronaldo does like his like, I'm getting ready for this. I'm like, shaking it out. Like all the cameras are on me. This thing's going in the back of the net routine. And the whistle goes and Ronaldo is like in the middle of his still like I'm still getting ready routine. And Nuno Menges just steps up and whips the left foot and free kick into the back of the net. And it's like, oh, that was actually legitimately really good. They got him.
00:30:10
Speaker
It was genius. And also part of is that like that five minutes of jostling was like, what are we doing here? We all know everyone's got their phone out. They're like, oh, it's Ronaldo. It's Ronaldo. It was like, actually, this was just an elaborate setup of a Rube Goldberg machine of the ball is going through this wall that we really carefully put in place.
00:30:30
Speaker
And then you start asking, why did you pull this out for 2-0 against Uzbekistan? like That makes no sense to me. They used their two Ronaldo distraction free kick routines in this game. So they use this. And then later on in the game, they use one where Ronaldo steps over they play this like chip ball over the top to him that he doesn't finish. He also then again adds to the meme economy on the end of this one with a little points at head meme, which ah to me is him saying, can't miss the free kick if you don't take it. Right. Because that's what he did on this one. And then he does get his desserts um and he gets his his third goal.
00:31:03
Speaker
um He's on the end of a perfect ball from John Felix. And it's just it's a great ball and it's a great run and it's a great finish. Yeah, I thought his second finish was actually really, really good where he plays that angle back across the keeper before there's time for it. And he's at a really tough angle. This is a genuinely good finish from Ronaldo. Like, again, when he if he gets off his center back, like he can finish. i think the issue is when he gets off a center back. But like.
00:31:28
Speaker
This looked really, really silky. this one on his second one, he hits the full two and the whole stadium gets the moment. And look, it's not fair to be like, all those guys yesterday got their American World Cup in America superstar moments. Ronaldo doesn't get to have his. No, he does. Listen, you listen to this podcast. You're here. You know how we feel. But there is just that moment of he's giving...
00:31:51
Speaker
he he He knows how much of the cameras are on him at all times, and he feeds off of it. and like it's just to respect the guy in a little bit, but like he, he clearly his world, like his whole brain for the last week has been him visualizing that moment. And for him, his force of will is bigger than everyone else that he demanded him to himself to get that moment team or not team. And like, I'm happy for him. that That's what he, he wanted, got what he wanted in that sense. Look, if nothing else, the dude is a showman,
Portugal's Victory Over Uzbekistan
00:32:24
Speaker
right? He is a showman. He is for the cameras. He bigs it all up and and he you got it today. And it all worked out and it was good.
00:32:31
Speaker
Two more goals for Portugal in the second half of this game. The fourth is a weird own goal situation where Nemetov, the Uzbek goalkeeper, ends up whacking it into the back of it in the back of the net after a weird kind of scramble play. And then Rafael Leão gets the the fifth with a really, really nice finish.
00:32:47
Speaker
Ronaldo played 90 minutes of this game, Amit, because he was hat-trick hunting. Because again, The man's a showman. Exactly. And that's where like, that's the, you know, more of the annoying stuff of him, more of the annoying stuff, some of the annoying stuff of him. And I think the way he talks about this game, yelling, I'm back, I'm back in the post game, you know, meet mixed media zone. and He goes, I always arrive. And then the mainstream media is like, has he silenced his critics?
00:33:13
Speaker
And it's like, do we have to do this? Like, who is, who is he in conversation with? Is he in conversation with us? Like, like, is he listening to World Cup after dark? And like,
00:33:24
Speaker
I think if you listen this type of podcast and anyone that's like talking about the game with like an objective grain of reality at any point is like very honest about where he is Like, it's not that he's the worst player and that like, he's a failure. It's just like the team is a little bit better without him.
00:33:40
Speaker
Is that the question that he's answered today? Because the answer is no. Right, because of the opponent and the level and everything. like He answered that he wasn't going to have a complete failure of a World Cup, which again, golf clap, good. But like there's more to do here for Portugal. They've got a game against Colombia that will close out the group. They've got knockout round stages. like it's It's not getting easier from here. like it's How hard it was in the first game, that's how hard it's going to be in the later games.
00:34:05
Speaker
And so I think it was – first of all, you were on this for for days that Ronaldo would score two against Uzbekistan and then sink their tournament hopes by having to play him. And you're, I think, spot on, like like truly spot on. And the reason why – is it It feels so frustrating is because now through two games, we have evidence that Roberto Martinez is just serving Ronaldo's entire bit. And that is the most scary thing for Portugal in the way. Because the team the team responded really well. And I don't think the team and him like necessarily are in bad blood. like They're happy for him. He clearly has some good relationships. They played well today as a team.
00:34:48
Speaker
But it's the manager's job to put his team in the best situations. And I just don't think that's going to work against a good defense. And that's the question that we've been asking and the question that we'll still be asking about this team. So let's see how it goes.
00:35:03
Speaker
No, like maybe we'll have egg on our face. We're not right all the time. And like Bernaldo and every supporter ever would like love to laugh at all the nerds like us who are wrong. But like, let's see.
00:35:15
Speaker
I also enjoyed that the first goal, like before he does this, he does the whole team of celebration thing. It's like, this is just, he's very clearly just egging all of this up Like we know what you're doing. We know your game, Cristiano. All right. You had your moment. Let's see you do it again. And then, then then we can talk. Right.
00:35:31
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. The other game in this group, omit a one nil win for Columbia in the last game of the night against DR Congo. This was a feisty World Cup wrap up, right? Like it just felt like there was a lot of energy here.
00:35:47
Speaker
The top level talent maybe wasn't there, but Columbia came through and got three points and they've won their first two games and it set them up in a good position to go on and win this group. Yeah, Colombia's team intensity and aggression in hounding the ball were on display here um in a way that was just a little bit better than what Portugal had to offer. Look, I think terms of quality on the ball, Portugal very clearly have more guys that can hurt you, but Colombia just were a little bit relentless, and the game was a little bit more open to from what DR Congo had. ah i think the biggest differences between...
00:36:21
Speaker
this DR Congo and the last DR Congo game is the the press, the back press, and look, that Portugal lives with that, playing Vitinha and João Neves. I thought Jefferson Lerma was excellent. I thought the center backs, Lukumi and Sanchez, were excellent. And that's related to the next point is that Wisa and Bakumbu were just not as prolific in escaping today out of the pressure.
00:36:44
Speaker
So all of that is just kind of really one-way traffic from Colombia, especially until that hydration break. Then kind of DR Congo by themselves, I think, the second quarter of this game. And then Columbia kind of just slowly ratcheted up again with the press. And um look, the goal is a bit weird, but I think in aggregate, Columbia do more than enough here and force a good day out of the DRC goalkeeper and get enough shots up to to get one in on a fortunate to bounce eventually in the last 12 minutes of the game.
00:37:17
Speaker
Daniel Munoz was great again for Columbia and he has ah a knack of getting into goal scoring
Colombia's Strategy Against DR Congo
00:37:22
Speaker
situations, right? So he got the goal against Uzbekistan and in this game he gets early chances. He's got two chances early. He's got a rebound shot that he flashes wide after initial shot was saved from John Arias. And then he makes a run in behind where a posse makes an initial save and Munoz tracks it down and scores. He was just offside on the run, but him bringing that kind of verticality to the right side. And then you couple that with, you've got Luis Diaz on the left side. it really helps to stretch out a back line because there's threat coming in on both wings and his ability to just find spaces in the box and be dangerous has come up big in both of these games now for Columbia.
00:38:01
Speaker
It's that plus the timing because he's often the latest runner because he's starting from so far back. And that's to your point where it's so hard to track. And i think this is something we actually have identified really well. Look, it's always shown up on tape for Columbia that he is the right back, but he's essentially given that license to go wherever because Lukumi, Sanchez, Mojica, Lerma, that's kind of your four guys protecting. And yeah he's able to leave all that space. And I think Davidson Sanchez quietly – is really doing a lot for Colombia's system to to hold all that ground.
00:38:34
Speaker
um Again, on that timing part, like Suarez didn't have a great game, but he was fine. I think Cordoba is fine. But one thing they're doing is occupying space so that Munoz can come in and be unmarked in a dangerous spot. And that's enough sometimes.
00:38:56
Speaker
Lionel and Pasi, the DR Congo goalkeeper makes six saves in the first half here. They were good saves. I don't think there was anything that was incredible. Columbia created a lot of chances. They peppered a lot of situation. Again, we've just we keep coming back to this. The first half hydration should break fell in a bad time for Columbia, completely broke their momentum. They had DR Congo pinned in. And it kind of broke the momentum and they didn't quite ratchet it back up to that in what was left of of the first half.
00:39:20
Speaker
And in the second half, again, Columbia just kind of start, I think, to slowly build that pressure and it's changes for Columbia, right? that They take off Hamas. They bring on one Fernando Quintero. They make the switch at nine, right? With Cordoba coming on for Sanchez. ah Really good chance for Luis Diaz before that happens for Columbia. Congo, they they don't get a corner clear. The ball comes back into Diaz. He's one-on-one and it's off in passing. I think this was probably the best chance that Diaz had. He was all over this game again. After Columbia's score, he has a couple other chances to double the lead. Doesn't take advantage.
00:39:53
Speaker
Soft side a bit more than i think you would like for your for your talismanic attacker to be. But man, he's just all over and just constantly asking questions. Yeah, the stat that I just saw is he's been offside five times through two games, which is the most through two games of any player, I think, in a World Cup. And yeah, that's maybe a bit aggressive for him, but it shows you that even though Columbia is 4-3-3, he's basically a left forward more than a left winger. And he is hanging off the line and always just on the line so that he can get in behind. Yeah.
00:40:27
Speaker
And he's really morphed into this role nicely. Like, he's the best player on the field for the second game in a row in Columbia. I know Munoz gets the goals, but they're leveraging his threat really, really well, and
Upcoming Matches and Group Stage Finales
00:40:39
Speaker
they have to. Look, I think James Rodriguez has been a mixed bag through two games. He was better today than he was the first one.
00:40:46
Speaker
I think they're getting better contributions when he's not on the field. So when push comes to shove, they might want to consider him more as a super sub. I think the dead ball stuff is still really excellent, but Columbia could just ratchet up everything a bit more when he he's not on the field. And look, I'm glad they've gotten two games, six points. Like it's been a good little experiment, but I'm not sure I need to see it again. It'll be interesting to see what they do against Portugal with James, right? Because that's going to be a big game. Columbia, because of this result, are going to be able to play for the draw to win the group against Portugal. But that's a big high-level group stage game that we had circled before the tournament even started. It's taken on big stakes. We'll get into that in a second.
00:41:28
Speaker
But what they do with that, and if they're choosing to play kind of that luxury 10 in that game, whether that's Rodriguez or whether it's Juan Fernando Quintero, who has been the like-for-like replacement, right? They've had that type of player on the pitch the entirety of the tournament.
00:41:42
Speaker
Is that something they still want to do do they want to try and get another option? I think it's it's a very interesting decision. As for the goal here, of it it was Quintero who came on, who makes a pass. Juan Cordova, who who, as you said, has come on in the nine. You mentioned that he occupies space. It's exactly what he does on this play, right? So he kind of blocks off the defender and is looking to kind of buy a penalty with contact. He doesn't get the call, but he keeps the defender from getting into space. And all of a sudden it's Munoz and the pass comes to and fires, he gets a a lucky deflection off the shot, right? It changes the trajectory and posse gets wrong footed by it.
00:42:15
Speaker
But it's once again, Munoz putting himself in a good position, making the kind of later run into the box, getting on the end of the pass and he's rewarded with the goal. It was a really good run by him and intentional or not good hold-up play by Cordova. um Look, I think the center backs and the whole back line for Dierkonga was pretty good today. This is a tough one to get God Mampasi really was strong today. This is a tough one to get God on. You watch it live and you're like, there's no way he should have been beaten at his near post on that ball.
00:42:47
Speaker
You see the deflection. It's really unfortunate. And I think... the one thing you can say for DR Congo is they did score in the first game, but two games in, like they're just vulnerable to this kind of bounce. And particularly today, right? Like, yes, you have two attacking players in Wusun Bakumbu, but then it's,
00:43:07
Speaker
at seven field or not an eight field players behind that five, three that are just not there to provide any attack. And at some point, like we talk about your Congo a little bit, like, is that enough even in a knockout round? Or are you just like really slogging hard for pens? And we talked about this earlier too, that extra 30 minutes is difficult. Like,
00:43:36
Speaker
I'm a little bit worried about... DR Congo are nasty. And like we talked about DR Congo England, like that could be a really, really tough game. But is there something to this just being a little too one-dimensional? I think it's interesting. We haven't seen Theo Bongonda. We haven't seen Meshak Iliar. Two a kind of their more attacking players. Those guys haven't played a single minute yet in this tournament. I would expect you'd see them against Uzbekistan in a game that D'Arcongo probably will need to win to get through and will probably have to take a bit more of the and initiative. But I think it's been interesting. They pretty much just relied on the Wisa Bakumbu double to try and find attacking, you know, questions being asked and attacking play. And it worked against Portugal, right? But in this game, I i think they kind of failed to create until they did right at the end, which we'll get to in a second.
00:44:24
Speaker
But yeah, I think that's that's kind of the the question that they're looking for and what they're getting. They do get their chance, though, right? After Diaz wastes those chances to kind of put Columbia up to, Diaz and Congo get their chance. they They start in the kind of final five to seven minutes the It just makes them all the time, right? It's throw a bunch of guys in the box. It's absolute chaos. There's just pushing, shoving, pulling, tugging it every bit in this moment. Every single corner is stopped by the referee before it can be taken to to have a talking to the players. But they do get their chances. It's a first. It's a good shot from Mbuku and Vargas, who hasn't really impressed me so far for Colombia. I think he's a potential weak spot.
00:45:00
Speaker
To his credit, comes up and makes the save. And then off the second ensuing corner, it's Mbemba with a header that's also saved. The Mbuku shot, I think, is the best chance that Dierkong will create in this game. And it comes right in the 90-plus minutes.
00:45:13
Speaker
Yeah, it's a good hit from distance, and the ball is definitely flying off the foot if you catch in the right way. It's got a lot of movement towards that outside post. Good save from Vargas. um I thought also, when when asked, the Colombian center backs were good in the first 85 minutes of this game, and then even defending the box, I thought Lukumi and Sanchez held up well again. So generally, if you're going to give up one shot from distance at a pretty weak header,
00:45:41
Speaker
That's ah it all in all a good day's work from, from Columbia. Yeah. That's how you survive the mix of ball at the end of the game. Right. So the situation in this group now is Columbia on six points with those two wins, Portugal on four, those teams will play in Miami on the final match day.
00:45:57
Speaker
Columbia had the advantage of the draw. Portugal have to beat Columbia in order to win this group. And there is incentive of it to win this group because you look at the draw, the the winner and the runner up will probably both be playing from the same combination of teams, right? It looks like the Ghana, Croatia pool of group L is where the winner and the runner up are going fall here. The winner will get whoever's third place there.
00:46:19
Speaker
Maybe that's Ghana. Maybe that's Croatia. It's probably Ghana, but it could be Croatia. Whereas the runner up is playing the runner up. So the better of those two teams that match up, there might not be a ton of difference, but but what comes after that absolutely is because the group winner, and the round of 16 matchup is Canada or Switzerland or another third place team.
00:46:36
Speaker
That's a really favorable path. Whereas the runner up is probably getting Spain in the round of 16. So there's a lot of incentive. It's going to be a great group stage game. I think it's a game that you and I were really looking forward to coming into this tournament and it's going to live up to the hype.
00:46:49
Speaker
I'm glad it has stakes. I'm also, i think it's good perhaps for the the game that Columbia has the draw advantage here. So the pressure is on Portugal and the pressure has been on Portugal since their slow start.
00:47:01
Speaker
Look, they played really well against Uzbekistan. I think they are better than Columbia, but this has been kind of what we hoped for Columbia. I don't think they've showed us a gear above necessarily their level, but this is a chance to kind of tap into their,
00:47:19
Speaker
their more familiar mentality versus they've had to be the aggressor in the first two games. And something we've talked about and for the common ball teams is how they are less effective in that role and more effective being the mucker role. And this is a really interesting game for that because now you can open Diaz on the counter where he is really electric. He hasn't really had the chance to do that. Columbia have found two goals, two big goals without playing that game.
00:47:46
Speaker
Now it's really finely poised. You can see in your head how this game is going to go. Portugal's going to have the ball. They're going to be trying to break it down. And Colombia's going to be dangerous. So it does also seem like just talking about it, it's less and less of a game for James Rodriguez. But maybe maybe just that one moment of quality could matter. So it's very finely poised.
00:48:06
Speaker
Ronaldo is going to have a much tougher time, i think, versus the Afghanistan center backs versus Lukumi and Sanchez. But... you know I think the the the movement he showed today, like it's not that he can't find a goal. So some interesting stuff for Bobby Martinez to sort out.
00:48:22
Speaker
We're always kind of saying that it's going to be a very awesome atmosphere in Miami too. So while the rest of the footballing world has their eyes tuned on the Ronaldo-Colombia show in Miami with the sea of yellow – There will then be the World Cup After Dark undercard, which will feature D.R. Congo and Uzbekistan playing for third place. D.R. Congo on one point, Uzbekistan on zero points, a minus seven goal differential.
00:48:46
Speaker
Uzbekistan will know going into this game, you would think more or less what number they need to get to. There's a scenario where enough teams finish off of three points that a win will do it for Uzbekistan. And a win even with minus six, minus five, whatever that goal differential is, is enough. For DR Congo, it's simple. They're probably going to have to win.
00:49:04
Speaker
i don't think two points is getting you out. I think we've kind of run the numbers enough that it would have there would have to be a lot of pretty surprising results for that to happen. But if DR Congo do win, and we alluded to this earlier when we were talking about England, if they win and they get third, it's a round of 32 matchup between DR Congo and England.
00:49:21
Speaker
The script has been written for how DR Congo can have success in that game. They did it against Portugal. Ghana did it against England. That'd be a really fascinating knockout round matchup. Yeah, you you got to try to get there. this is tricky because, well, first of all, before coming in, it's like a 4% chance that a two-point team can get in in third. It's, as you said, probably going to be a bit less than that. So not really feeling good about it. Dear Congo need to win this game. And similar thing about playing defensively versus having to take the initiative.
00:49:54
Speaker
These two teams are just built to muck each other up and throw ugly haymakers and not have the ball anywhere interesting. This is tricky for DR Congo because one thing you said, they have Bangonda and Elia. They could really use them.
00:50:11
Speaker
i i i know Uzbekistan are like, they got punked today, but like there's something in this World Cup for them. Like I think they're better than they've shown. I know we kind of said, oh, Ronaldo's doing it against Central Asian teams and I backed that. But like,
00:50:25
Speaker
This game's a little tricky. So there's a lot of pressure for me, for DR Congo, who are kind of also riding that high of game one, getting that important draw. And it just kind of feels like you still haven't shown that one thing you need. And there's a lot of pressure in this game, a lot of pressure to do something they they haven't done. Remember, just like...
00:50:47
Speaker
I guess they did really well in qualifying the playoff, right? Yeah. But they just kind of – they never really take the game to anyone. They are always just the survivors. That is like their calling card is just hanging in.
00:51:00
Speaker
They're playing another team like that. It's tough. Yeah. And Uzbekistan had their moments against Colombia, right? They didn't show a bunch today against Portugal, but they had their moments against Colombia. They can have their moments in a game against DR Congo. I think it's a really interesting proposition. And yeah, seeing DR Congo take the initiative is going to be a change for them. And I think that's going be good.
00:51:18
Speaker
So that's match day two in the bag. Match day three kicks off tomorrow. And Amit, if the fire hose has been at like 10, it's somehow going to get turned up to 12 tomorrow because there's six games in three windows. It's multi-screen time. It's double barrel final day group stage of the World Cup.
00:51:36
Speaker
There are very few things better in sport than this. So we get four days of this Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. I can count. FIFA is just up the difficulty level on everyone. Six games, double barrel.
00:51:51
Speaker
Guys, how are we supposed to handle it? And like, look, I'm delighted. I think it's good for the group stage to go up in a bag. But I think you and I and a lot of people will feel a little more sane on the other side. Right.
00:52:02
Speaker
and there's a third place table to keep track of too, right? There's so many things. There's new tiebreakers. it's We're going to be frazzled by the end of it. So tomorrow a bit, we wraps group A, B, and C. Starts in group B. Switzerland, Canada playing the top place in that group.
00:52:16
Speaker
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar playing for a third place spot. Winner would go into third place and probably advance, but there has to be a winner. Can't play for a draw. Second wave, we've got Scotland, Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, finishing up Group C. Brazil and Morocco already through on four points. Scotland looking to hang on in three points or get a result to go through. And then finally, we wrap up in Group Host Mexico, who are already through and have won the group, will play Czechia, who need three points.
00:52:41
Speaker
And then South Africa and South Korea in a game where both of those teams are still playing for their fate. Which of these three groups is most exciting to you?
00:52:51
Speaker
It's a tricky one. i think the the best game is Bosnia, Herzegovina, Qatar, just because Qatar, it's their last gap. It's not like there's some clear gulf in quality between them. Bosnia is a favorite, like pretty sizably, but like this is basically a win and in and they especially can't draw. So like there's just like ah a lot of drama entertainment that could happen if this thing is tied late or even if one team does tie, like it doesn't really help. So that to me is just the best game.
00:53:21
Speaker
personally, Switzerland, Canada matters for the path. We also in Canada have the draw to play for. So like both of those are good. I'll start there. And then I would just say like,
00:53:34
Speaker
Morocco, Haiti, Scotland, Brazil is not the most interesting to me. It's more of can Brazil somehow keep up? Both teams are really going to try to pump the score, but Scotland are really incentivized to to hold on. So you'd you back Morocco here, weirdly enough, to to finish top of the group. That's a bit of ah a shock, but it feels that way. Yeah, I think Haiti are going to be way more open than Scotland are. like They're going to be much more gettable, if you will, for multiple goals. And I think Scotland are really a swing team as we kind of pivot towards looking at the third place table.
00:54:05
Speaker
We're assuming they lose to Brazil, right? If they lose to Brazil, they're going to be a third place team on three points and they're going to have a goal differential of... And that's the question, right? And where that goal differential is could determine where that line is. Like there's a chance we get to the end of Saturday and you and I are with our frazzled brains that have just pulled into double barreled mush are looking at Scotland as the eighth third place team in because of what they did all the way back on Wednesday. It's absolutely critical that if Scotland lose, it's not by a big number.
00:54:34
Speaker
It is. And I think to that point, they'll just be defensive 90 minutes, no matter of the game state. But really, the objective here is if they could nick a draw off ah of Brazil and just really muck it up. And, you know, they played Morocco really well, I thought, for 90 minutes. It was a salvage job being down one. But like, look, if you show that tape, generally that level of performance, i think will get you a long way against a Brazil team that we know struggles without open play. Look, the last two games of the day, the group A stuff, Czechia, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, it's not entirely, you know, that um captivating.
00:55:08
Speaker
But Czechia and South Africa are just hanging on to a sliver of hope. There's plausible cases in both games, right? Yeah, there is because Mexico don't have anything to play for. it They've already won the groups. There's an opportunity for Czechia. And I think we've kind of, me personally, definitely, I've kind of fallen into this trap where mentally I've already put South Korea through, right? Like the math in my head is just like, ah, South Korea are fine. They're through.
00:55:30
Speaker
They're not, right? They're only on three points here. If they somehow lose to South Africa, which isn't completely implausible, then they're all of a sudden in the third place chase. South Africa have gotten second. That is a game where there are stakes on both sides. It's late night. It's being played in Mexico. It's not the number one game in the window because it's the host. Weird things can happen. It's World Cup after dark, folks.
00:55:52
Speaker
And Czechia and Mexico, the models don't know how to predict because of the Mexico thing. It's like they're just saying, yeah, who knows? It could be a draw. I think Switzerland and Canada, they're giving Switzerland a slight, slight edge, but not even favored, not plus 50% because that draws such a large probability. So it's somewhere in that like...
00:56:10
Speaker
40, 30, 30 type thing. South Korea is, they're not even past 60%, I want to say, in this game. So, like, it is not a cakewalk here. I think South Korea can win.
00:56:21
Speaker
I think South Africa in their two games has has been pretty disappointing. But South Korea doesn't have the type of team to make this easy for them, right? So...
00:56:32
Speaker
it's It's an intriguing proposition in that game. And South Africa at some point are going to have to open up, right? A draw is not going to be enough to get them through on on two points in third place. So like i don't think they're going to open up from the start. They shouldn't open up from the start. But at some point, they will have to open up to to try and go for this game. So look, it's going be a lot of fun. We'll be back on the World Cup After Dark at the end of the games tomorrow to recap all that action. We love double barrel groups. it's time It's the best time of our four-year cycle. So we will be here for all of it. You can find all of our stuff.
00:56:59
Speaker
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, anywhere you get your stuff. And if you want to support us directly, you can do so at patreon.com slash WCAD, where $3 a month gets you access to subscriber-only content and directly supports what we do. We hope you enjoyed the games today.
00:57:13
Speaker
Hope you enjoy the games tomorrow, and we will check back then.