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WCAD 4-27: Easy As (Finishing Groups) A-B-C
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It's a jam-packed WCAD that starts in the aftermath of Bafana Bafana's 1-0 win over South Korea. From there, the guys talk about a Brazil side that not only got Neymar back but looked as good as they have in some time, and a peak Haiti performance in their 4-2 loss to Morocco. The show caps with a Group B round-up, as Swtizerland's attack shone in a 2-1 win over Canada and Bosnia advanced in 3rd past Qatar. Finally, the guys take stock of the 3rd Place table and try to find a path through for Scotland. Plus, plenty of managerial fit talk, from Carlo Ancelotti's three-piece in Miami to Julen Lopetegui's sweat-stained polo in Seattle.
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Transcript
Post-Game Reactions and South Africa's Historic Win
00:00:01
Speaker
Throughout this World Cup, our recording schedule has been different, right? It changes. Some nights we go right after the last game. Some nights we wait till the next morning. I'll let you the listeners in a little detail. Some nights we record some of the podcasts and then come back and record another part of the podcast. Look, we're doing a lot of podcasts. We we try to find what it fits. But I will say, admit, there are very few things that are like this.
00:00:24
Speaker
a post game buzz of a podcast. We press record minutes after South Africa, make the world cup knockout round for the first time in their history. it just gets you buzzing.
00:00:36
Speaker
It's the beauty of the final day of the groups, the beauty of the World Cup, a team that we had all, not all, but many of us had written off. And this is a historic result. This is a super fun team. the The story of South Africa is playing with the joy that we saw them play with in qualifying and and kind of getting back to their roots in a way. And it was awesome today. They were deserving the better team. And you're right, that buzz electric. And i think...
00:01:04
Speaker
This was a good day for reminding us surprises are in store for the next three. Yeah, we're three groups in. We still have nine groups to go. And our third place table math has already been turned on its head a couple of times throughout three groups, right? This is the World Cup After Dark podcast.
South Africa's Strategic Victory Over South Korea
00:01:19
Speaker
My name is Austin Miller.
00:01:20
Speaker
I'm joined, as always, by Amit Malik. After Dark as ever on this edition of this show, right? We're on the last day of group stage matches. Things are flying in. We're going to go back to front in the order today because we have to start with South Africa. Amit, a 1-0 win over South Korea.
00:01:37
Speaker
This was a deserved result for Bofana Bofana here. The other game in this group finishes in a 3-0 win for Mexico. The less said on that, the better. But we will say a little bit on that because we must. But so South Africa, one no winners. They are through in second place in this group. They put South Korea into the third place purgatory. and i think this was a deserved result for Hugo Bruce's men.
00:02:00
Speaker
Yeah, he he had his team attacking in transition much more. He had his team ah turning over South Korea in dangerous spots, generally just being thorny to play through.
00:02:11
Speaker
i thought South Korea's biggest issue in this game and all of their games is... they just struggle to connect to their front three often because those guys can't really get on the ball. And South Africa did a really good job of just kind of keeping it all behind them and being super, super dangerous and roaming forward and having wingers drive at the back line and get in space. And I think just a little bit of that tilt of the personnel from Bruce was big in this one.
00:02:39
Speaker
And the result is, like like I said in the top, a lot more free-flowing attacking soccer. um They like to spray the ball. They like to you know use their running and not just with defensive players.
00:02:51
Speaker
Compared to their first two games, it was night and day. And so for sure, they're deserving. a lot of this at the same time has to go on South Korea team that...
00:03:03
Speaker
looked every bit as stale and washed as you don't want to use that word too often, but I think it i think it really applies here to South Korea. a team that we had described on our preview pod was definitely in the zone of ah the danger tier, I suppose, of underachieving tier. And look, they're through in third, but outside of that 30 minutes versus Czechia, they've been quite poor here.
00:03:29
Speaker
You definitely don't want to be throwing around the word washed too much when we still haven't even gotten to Memo Ochoa or Neymar on today's show a bit or the entire Qatar team. So just just be careful with your uses of washed on the show. You might be a little bit early. I think there there's some good things that I want to touch on what you said. The first is the South Korea tried and I thought it was very interesting. They tried something different in attack today, right? So they don't start coming son. They start Oh with Hwangi Chan and Kangin Lee behind him.
00:03:57
Speaker
But then they make a halftime change and they bring Sun on and they try to play him with O for periods. And it just never felt like they found their attacking rhythm in this game. And to the South Africa point, I thought that this team faced with a situation where it was a must win game.
00:04:12
Speaker
Solitary points weren't going to do them any good. They were forced into playing attacking football and that helped. And maybe they should have just done that earlier instead of trying to get too cute and get results in games. Just go play. It's what you're best at.
00:04:27
Speaker
Right. I think the Mexico game is one thing that's understandable, but perhaps against Czechia, they could have done more. Look, they actually did in the last 10 minutes of that one, one game, go for it and more than Czechia did. And the thing we did say then is Bruce should have thrown even more forward. And it was kind of like the, you're not going to get a chance as good as those 10 minutes against Czechia. Well, we were wrong. They got 90 minutes against South Korea and had more of ah the the ball and the chances. And,
00:04:55
Speaker
Look, Maseko is the story here.
Key Performances and Tactical Analysis
00:04:57
Speaker
The hero, I think he is really good in ah getting into the space evacuated by the Korea left side. It's Tae Seok in the first half and the second half. um Jens Kastrop, the halfger half German, half Korean guy in the Bundesliga comes in and look, Korea need their wingbacks to get forward. Gi Hyuk is maybe the weak link and this is just, this channel is open and Every time in transition, he's finding the ball. And look, he he takes his first few chances poorly. He's trying to get on his left foot. There's some great clearances from Gi-hyuk, from Kim Min-jae, and there's some ragged defending. But eventually he gets one right. And I thought his you know positioning was the key story for for Bruce's formation working.
00:05:43
Speaker
It's funny because there's multiple moments in this match where you're just begging the fellow Maseko to have a right foot, right? Because he's very clearly left foot dominant. He's very clearly trying to get the ball on that foot to his chances. And there's a couple of times where as the second half goes on Korea obviously really start to realize that and they're just camping on the left foot and they're just saying,
00:06:02
Speaker
beat us with your right foot buddy and he's not able to but the chance ends up falling to his left foot and this was a really good bit of play from South Korea so it starts with a hold up play from my Gopa who's the number nine here evidence my Gopa who comes into the starting a lineup they leave Lyle Foster on the bench Lyle Foster doesn't even see the pitch in this game and it's my Gopa who holds up the ball And then he's able to find Mofokeng, who's the 10. And then he makes the play to the substitute who has just come on with the Shipeng Moremi.
00:06:32
Speaker
And Moremi makes a really good run down the left side. And while he's making a run down the left side, the rest of the attacking players are flooding forward. And Magopa plays the holding run, right? makes the holding run, holds the defense.
00:06:44
Speaker
That allows Moremi to play the ball across. And Maseko, who all game has just been begging for one of these chances to clearly fall into his left foot. He's able to take a quick touch and just fire a strike first time.
00:06:54
Speaker
Doesn't give the Korean defense any time to recover. There's no chance of getting a block in on this one, which they've done, as you said, emit on other
South Korea's Struggles and Missed Opportunities
00:07:00
Speaker
chances. And he puts it past Kim Sung-Yoo, and it's 1-0 to South Africa. This was the chance he'd been waiting all game to get. He got it, and he took it.
00:07:08
Speaker
it It was clinical and Korea struggled to have anything similar for just trying to get the ball to bounce to one of their guys in the box. It never happens. I thought Opelis was also really good in this game, just kind of asking questions of the Korean back line, driving at them, running hard. Makobo was good. Look, I think coming in Lyle Foster was who you expected to lead the line for South Africa.
00:07:33
Speaker
But the thing we said about him, he doesn't really have any plus attributes. He's just kind of okay at everything. And I think in Magopa, they had a little bit more of just an identity and something to expect, a more physical presence than Foster up top and all that worked the work. other thing you have to say is the the the midfield two here, the pivot was excellent and just kind of mucking up everything centrally.
00:07:54
Speaker
Korea could not get like... anything good in the middle of the field here. It was all circled around, circled around, and then cross. And the crosses weren't great. The runs weren't great. Like the chances were few and far between.
00:08:09
Speaker
I think a lot of credit to Cefalo Sintile, right? Who got sent off in the first, had a disaster class of a first game against Mexico, gets back in the lineup here and he's what makes that midfield work in this game for South Africa.
00:08:21
Speaker
After the South African goal, Korea start to, you know, they're throwing attackers on, they're trying to to create situations and they're really just not able to create much. There's really only one moment of fear for South Africa and it's a self-imposed moment of fear, right? When Ronwyn Williams makes a save and doesn't quite grab it. And so he kind of like,
00:08:39
Speaker
Volleyball pushes it forward to make sure it stays out and then recollects it. Other than that i I didn't feel like Korea had a whole lot down the stretch here, like ah unless something's slipping my mind. Not really. It felt felt pretty tame. I think the way Hong Myung-bo managed this match was extremely conservative, starting with leaving Sun off. And maybe that's a mix up to see what what he has and and use Oh as a pure nine.
00:09:05
Speaker
That is a decent idea. Out of halftime, his idea is just for Kree to put the foot on the ball, just to keep the ball away. Because... At this point, you know the draw gets you through, right? And you're you're just kind of saying, all right, South Africa, you had a good first half, but now we're going to ask you to come off your line. At South Africa, we're really, really patient at not like exposing themselves to anything the other way.
00:09:29
Speaker
And then... I think, I don't know if Korea, when they knew that Mexico took the lead on Czechia. I'm sure everyone in the stadium actually did know, but like when it affected their decision-making, because at a certain point, then Korea knows that if they lose, they're not going home.
00:09:45
Speaker
It's fine. And, I think it's a bad thing we're asking whether they knew or not because that lack of urgency kind of colored their entire second half performance. Even with the subs, like when Sun comes off the bench and isn't like he's kind of stuck not getting the ball, like there was just no one outside of Lee Kang in who you thought could do anything to unlock it. Right. It was very, very stuck.
00:10:11
Speaker
It was. And I think what's interesting from South Korea is, yes, where we sit now at the end of the first match day or the first day of the last match day, right?
00:10:21
Speaker
They are in an OK spot in third place. They've already passed Scotland, right? Who we'll get to in a bit. we'll look We'll take a full look at the third place table at the end of the show, because I think that's where a lot of this final day drama is coming. So I understand some of that sentiment.
00:10:36
Speaker
But man, it could still they could still be out, right? There are still possibilities. There are still results that can happen here that can send them out. But what makes this interesting, Amit, is their probable matchup finishing as a third-place team is not that scary, right?
00:10:51
Speaker
Their most likely spot that they fall here is they're going to play the winner of the Belgium-Iran-Egypt group. And so because of that, I think, yes, there's some of that complacency that steps in. But man, complacency can get you killed in a World Cup on a last match day.
00:11:07
Speaker
Yeah, they they had to be careful. um Outside of this 93rd minute header that is, you know, weirdly handled by Ronald Williams, outside of that, it's kind of 0.7 XG for career, which is fine. Only four shots in the box. Like, it was all...
00:11:25
Speaker
Pretty just tame, not enough impetus on the whole. And again, going back to my original point about Korea, they just don't support the front line enough. They don't want to get to the front line enough. And we did see it against Czechia for like...
00:11:41
Speaker
20 minutes, right? But as we you know talk about Czechia, that 20 minutes is becoming less and less impressive by the day. So I don't think Korea is going to be out of it. I think they do have like a gear of desperation that we haven't seen. They did not at any point chasing this game in the last 10 minutes truly look like they were desperate.
00:12:01
Speaker
But it's just – it doesn't feel good. and And I think a lot of people, a lot of fans, the media are all just like really, really sour on this team. Yeah. This did nothing to help that. And like i think South Africa, you have to give a lot of credit. But just optically for Korea to lose to South Africa, they feel really bad about it.
Hugo Bruce's Strategy and Mexico's Dominance
00:12:20
Speaker
Did you enjoy the the Hugo Bruce just kind of leaning into the the old man vibes here? He's just rocking basically his PJs on the bench. And then by the end of the game, he's just sitting calmly trying to pretend like it's not phasing him. And then the final whistle goes. And it's very clearly phasing him because he basically gets up out of bed and falls down.
00:12:39
Speaker
it was It was a great performance from him. and I think you have to give him credit too. After the first game against Mexico, he he doesn't panic. He tells everyone not to panic. He tells his team not to panic. And it seems like kind of a joke. Like, ah, this guy doesn't know what he's doing. He's just here for fun. South Africa is just here for fun. I think to rebound from that over two games shows you the time component of this World Cup, especially of this elongated group stage that things can change.
00:13:07
Speaker
South Africa have definitely had this like moment, this game circled for weeks, for who knows how long that like, look, we're never out of it. And that's the beauty of this format. Like, i don't want to say Korea was complacent, but I think South Africa just like timed it all perfectly to work out.
00:13:24
Speaker
They knew they needed it, right? Like like where Korea could maybe be complacent, South Africa couldn't because their odds of getting through in third place were very, very slim. The other game in this group amid a 3-0 win for Mexico could ridden to Czechia, I think is our general sentiment about this team. Now that we can officially say goodbye to them at the World Cup, Miroslav Kubik went into this game and thought, a game that my team probably has to win. You know what would be a good move here?
00:13:51
Speaker
We're going to the Azteca and we're leaving all of our dangerous set piece players on the bench to bring them on later and chase it. How'd that go? Extremely poorly. This was a horrible game. There was nothing happening for 45 minutes. There was one chance seven minutes in. There was no chances the rest of the half.
00:14:09
Speaker
Quebec is, as you said, trying to get his guys on for maybe 30 minutes because even even though Mexico rotates like you know a bunch of guys in,
00:14:21
Speaker
Czechia is still the worst team on the day. And they're just chasing the ball. They're sitting back. They're doing nothing. At halftime, the XG here is like 0.2 to 0.2. Like, I'm telling you truly nothing happened to this game. Do not go watch it. It was really poor. All you had was Slozek.
00:14:37
Speaker
Vazinsky and Solch just like running if they wanted. There's one chance eight minutes in the the ball comes to Vazinsky on his right foot. He fizzes it just a foot wide of the left post. And after that, there there's really nothing. And you just have to ask why Kubek thought that that was the right thing to do because even in the second half he doesn't make subs what minute is he waiting for in his head to bring them on like do we know was he was he going for 20 10 like it was really really poor and then eventually mexico scores
00:15:08
Speaker
And eventually Mexico just kind of take over this game because as you said, they're just the more talented team here. It doesn't matter how many guys they're rotating. They're simply more talented than check. You are. And they find um an inexplicable moment of transition, right? So it's a through ball from Romo and then Mateo Chavez who got the start at left back here, she makes a really nice run and he skips over saddle like, and it's a tidy finish.
00:15:30
Speaker
Romo has been a plus surprise for Mexico this tournament. He's been a good piece. I liked the approach here from Javier Aguirre. He made changes, but he left some guys in. I think he was definitely looking to keep the momentum going. That's why I think you see Quinones play in this game.
00:15:44
Speaker
A hundred percent. Quinones was quality. And then also using a narrative energy thing, like Mora getting his start, the teenager, there was a lot of buzz around that. He was, you know, definitely trying to, to have a good like debut as a start, not on the field. And the team doesn't want to let him down, but Mexico's intensity was very good for, you know, already being through. I think one theme for Mexico, if you go back to our preview and something we've talked about with friend of the show, John Arnold, many times is their relationship to the fans and the Azteca and it being in a weird spot. And I think through three games,
00:16:23
Speaker
they are like behind this team and it feels like a party. And I think that's the way Javier Gray has like perfectly threaded the needle. Three games, nine points. This is a good performance and not just the goal, right? Who he, he, he, it's a smart IQ play. They keep going for more. They don't take their foot off the gas. And it's like, he's doing it without even really having to try.
00:16:46
Speaker
look how much of that is check it being the other side, other side of the field. That's for sure. But like, i don't think you could have really done this any better than the way they did. Check you down a goal. They finally open up and it takes all of like what, two, three minutes for it to just blow up. Yeah. face Yeah, it's ah the the second goal is poor. um It's Jorge Sanchez, the right back, who kind of cuts through wide open. He's the center back is off of him by 10 yards. He doesn't even get a shot, but he kind of just like
00:17:19
Speaker
Touches the ball in the middle. There's a big crash, like four guys run into each other. And then Quinonez sees it first. The ball's scrambling on the goal mouth. He smashes it in. It's 2-0. And then kind of just turns into, as I said, the full party zone. Memo Ochoa appears. Yeah. every things rights You mentioned the narrative. So you lean in the narrative of more making his first start. Then you lean in the narrative of of memo Cho appearing at another world cup. And this was, I think also really well handled by a gear. He didn't need to give memo Cho the whole game. I don't know if he would have given memo Cho these minutes, if this was dependent on how the game was going, but yes, you're up to, against an extremely limited side, give memo Cho this moment at the Azteca. And look, it just contributes to the feel good vibes that Mexico have managed to create in this group stage.
00:18:03
Speaker
The crowd loves it. They're all singing his name. Ochoa loves it. The team loves it. Like, it's just a really good World Cup moment. Like, something about this World Cup, as we're going to talk about with Neymar later, and i'll we'll kind of get into it in the same way, like...
00:18:21
Speaker
There's this nostalgia element, and there's always that element of the history being present at the tournament while you're there. But I think now in this social media, super hyper marketing age, like the game is relying on these guys to like give the tournament and the fans those moments in a way that from a pure footballing point, like it doesn't necessarily make sense. And the fact that we can all enjoy it is really, really cool and really, really special. Yeah. And then he also contributes to the third goal too. Like he's the the guy launching this long super ball that totally is over the top of the Czech defense. They're outdone. The play comes through. Alvaro Fidalgo gets a wide open shot on a rebound and he slams it home. And then after everyone's been cheering for memo, after everyone's been having a party, they get to like do it again. yeah,
00:19:12
Speaker
It's just super iconic vibes. And what matters, what matters for Mexico is now they get this again for the round of 32 in a winnable game. And they win that, they get it again. So this is like the best, best case scenario for Mexico getting to the quarterfinals. I don't think I really don't think you could have drawn it better.
00:19:32
Speaker
And if they are to get to the quarterfinals, you would think like we came into this tournament saying they're probably going to have to be the big boy to do it. And the way that the the bracket has lined up, it's not officially set yet. And obviously it could change and it could change based on what happens in the round of 32.
00:19:46
Speaker
But you're looking at this match of Mexico, England in the round of 16 at the Azteca, right? That's the ingredients for Mexico and Azteca that is fully behind El Tri and Azteca that has been ignited throughout this tournament.
00:20:00
Speaker
That's the situation that I think Mexico have been playing for. And I think they've got it as well as they could get it. And if that is what ends up happening, let's see what happens when it gets there. But it's the type of game that we're salivating over. And it's still a ways away.
00:20:14
Speaker
It's still always way, but there does feel like some momentum rolling towards it. Not quite inevitability, but it does feel like it's happening. Look on the end, just closing out kind of on the checks. It's this final XG in this game is 1.8 to 0.5.
00:20:28
Speaker
This is in a must win game. I know it's a hostile atmosphere. This kind of speaks to everything check it has done in three games. they were up one against Korea get, get God. It's one, one against South Africa. They blow a lead in this game. They blow a lead in two games. And then in 10 minutes with, you know, a goal against South Africa and probably in those 10 minutes puts you through. We were right that time. Maybe we were wrong about South Africa. We were right there. And then in this game, Quebec, like doesn't even want a good game state for 60 plus minutes. And by the time he does make a change, his team is down one. So really, truly, this team tried to do as little as possible and got burned. And I think that's
00:21:08
Speaker
If they had tried, would it have been better? Probably not. Probably not. But it was a shame to go out this way, I think. And this is the team that snuck in perhaps in the least deserving way. They won two penalty shootouts to get here. Look, I had said they were maybe a dangerous team and that they could just kind of backwards their way through everything. That's what they tried to do. They didn't. They did try to back their way through it all. It just didn't work because, you know, those 10 minutes didn't work. They blew the lead. And at the end of the day, South Africa had the courage not to back their way through. And I think that is the key distinction, the key foil in this group.
00:21:41
Speaker
Speaking of World Cup parties a bit, we go from the Azteca to what happened earlier in the night in Miami. It is a three-nil win for Brazil against Scotland. And I know it's the same scoreline that Brazil put past Haiti,
00:21:55
Speaker
But this felt like a much more positive performance from Brazil. This felt like the type of game that they're looking to play. And it is as good as Brazil have looked in quite some time. They've got their attacking play figured out. I think Mateus Cunha has slotted into this kind of pseudo nine role interchange bit. that is working really well. Benicius Jr. at a super high level.
00:22:20
Speaker
And Haian, playing on the right side, had another good contribution. This is the Brazil that Carlo Ancelotti has wanted to see. Now let's see when the difficulty gets ratcheted up in the round of 32, what happens. But this was a good performance from Brazil.
00:22:35
Speaker
This was a really, really good performance from Brazil. Scotland are coming into this game, trying not to give up goals, and Brazil just kind of terrified them into two really, really bad mistakes for the first two goals. And before we talk about the game specifically, like...
00:22:52
Speaker
Another thing we were kind of thinking about before this this tournament for Brazil was how is Carlo Ancelotti going to fit in here? He's not really um an international manager. He's a club manager, but he's not a tactical. He's kind of more of a vibes man management guy.
00:23:07
Speaker
However, he's got that Madrid DNA and he's got the Vinny experience like specifically. Can he kind of make that work? And I think what you're seeing is this is this is a Vinny Mold team in the best, best way. He has help on the front line, but they are not taking away from him. They are supporting him. They're good in their own right, but they don't have to really like... do any crazy tactics either. Vinny's not having to track back. There's no like set up the half space. It's we defend, we kick it long into space, we run and get the ball, and when we have the ball in space, your defenders are in trouble because we can hurt you with runners and dribbling and shooting. and It's a really, really simple, effective formula. and There is something to Ancelotti just... He's done this at Madrid too. Like he gets by with half the tactics of better managers because he has the star players. And that is his his superpower.
00:24:06
Speaker
And it works when Vinny, specifically Vinny is at this level right now. The guy is, the guy is playing like a top four or five player in the world, maybe even top two or three. Like he's at this level. And if he's at this level, Brazil doesn't matter how mid middling their midfielder fullbacks are. Scotland is not bad. They, they,
00:24:23
Speaker
They're not good, but like bri Brazil really made them look bad. And Vinny is adding his name to the list of stars who have shined at this World Cup, right? We've done the Messi and Bappe, Holland, Cristiano Ronaldo had his day. This felt like it was Vinny's day. And it's a yet another example of a high, high quality attacking player just chasing down a defender, taking away the space and putting him in trouble. And that's what happens. So Scott McKenna comes into the Scotland defense. They don't play Kieran Tierney. It's Lauren Shankland up top and right from the start within the first 10 minutes, Agnes gun makes a pass to McKenna and he's just closed down by high end loses the ball. Vinny's wide open one nil.
00:25:03
Speaker
Then it's the second center back for Scotland who on what could have been the second goal, Henry, who gets cut down by Vinny again to make it 2-0. Hendry tried a rugby tackle, didn't pull it off, but there's ruled to be a foul on Benicius Jr. on VAR. So the second goal doesn't actually count, but it speaks to the point that this attack chasing down defenders is what made them so good and is what got them the opening goal in this game.
00:25:25
Speaker
And that's what should be terrifying, I think, to future opponents of Brazil. Yeah, the the press is good and high on you say high on in my head. I got to say Ryan, on but like, i'll I'll try it my best. Brazilian wife watched the game with the Brazilian family and ours got to become an H. There's no other way. I'm sorry. That's fine. I'll i'll do my best. I think you see his Bournemouth DNA here and like he is a really, really athletic, lively running attacker. He's lean like he moves in a different quite way than Rafinha. Freenia is a great player. Like, I think he's a better player, but there's a lot of skill sets here that are actually working really well with him and Cunha. And to your point exactly, like the speed of the press. Yes, you you expect Vinny and Cunha to be fast. But when the IQ high and has of like ah understanding that space,
00:26:17
Speaker
Scotland's defenders, they just simply haven't trained against something like this. They haven't seen something like this. They're caught asleep. They're just caught asleep. You're telling me Lyndon Dykes doesn't have that pace on the training ground?
00:26:29
Speaker
and No, he doesn't. And but the the thing with Scotland is yeah I don't think it was a bad thing to try the bigger striker from the start here to go against it.
00:26:40
Speaker
But Even then, even then, I think they were a bit too open between the lines. And that's maybe unfair because if you if you do a Keros type park for 90 minutes, you're you're getting, you might get three goals either way.
00:26:55
Speaker
But I think the very clear read on how to stop Brazil is to deny this space and not play with the ball at all. I think you have to immediately get into your worst mode. And they didn't do that. Maybe because Steve Clark knows that his team actually isn't good at defense anyway, so we need to score. I think that's where he's coming at it from, but it was it didn't look good this way for sure. Yeah, i mean, that's the point we've made a lot about Scotland is you look at the personnel, you think, oh they're going to be a grimy, slimy defensive team. They don't actually defend all that well. Like they're not. That's not the game state where they find a ton of success. And on the second goal, it's a lot of the same, right? So Matthias Cunha makes a really good effort to keep Scotland from getting out. Ball ends up popping to Benio Gama Rice and he just delivers an absolutely inch perfect ball.
00:27:40
Speaker
Imanacius Jr. has made that late far post run that we've seen be so effective in this tournament. He's there, heads it in for 2-0. This is great play by Cunha, who I think has, he's the answer for Brazil at nine. He's not a traditional nine. Maybe there's a point in this tournament where they will want a traditional nine chasing a goal, but the fluidity that he brings them in attack just unlocks so much. And and it started this play.
00:28:04
Speaker
And then look, Bruno Guimarães with just a perfect ball and Vinicius Jr. is making the run. this is how you dream it up for Brazil. Like it's really, really effective. It's really, really direct.
00:28:15
Speaker
And Bruno Guimara is also that secret sauce. He hasn't really had to do anything crazy. I think, I think he does well in the first game defending against Morocco, but now you see like, yes, it's the front three, but they need the ball and all three guys in one way or the other can get it there in really effective spots. So I thought he's excellent today. he He's bossing the entire Scotland midfield by himself, perhaps as he should, but really good game.
00:28:40
Speaker
And he gets an assist on the third as well, right? Castamira plays a really good ball and Burma Guillemarice does a really good job to to body off the Scottish defender and then just kind of tap it across for Matthias Cunha, who makes the run and and gets the goal, really deserving goal for Cunha in this performance.
00:28:56
Speaker
And then, Amit, we talked about the moments. We talked about the vibes. Brazil are three goals up, and so it's 15 minutes to go. And look who's back healthy. Well, I don't know if he's healthy, but look who's back on the field. It's Neymar for 15 minutes.
00:29:11
Speaker
Look, he took a bunch of corner kicks, so they weren't half bad. and i think that's all you can ask for. He was jogging around. And look, if you enjoyed the memo mo memo moment, you probably enjoyed the Neymar moment. Look what it meant to Brazil. That's, to me, the thing. like All the fans and you're you know around some Brazilians, like they just want to see this guy. And it means something. It's the history part of it. like Spot 26, why don't you do it use it for the vibes? right like And Sometimes if you if you're not in a luxury spot, it looks dumb.
00:29:45
Speaker
But when you can use the luxury spot that way, you look vindicated. You look like you're playing chess, not checkers. And i think such a key thing for this Brazil team is keeping Vinny happy. like is At the end of the day, like that's a lot of it. I don't think Vinny and Neymar are like friends, but I think they... like They've put some of that aside to work together, and like the vibes are so good with everyone else that it works. Am I wrong about that that part with Vinny Neymar? Obviously, this isn't like we are not inside reporters on Brazil, but they're just kind of different guys. I think they are, but I think you see that Neymar is still just such a figure in Brazil. He's Omenino Ney, right? like he's He's the little guy that that everybody still loves. And as you said, as you were kind of alluded to there, I watched this game with my nine-year-old niece and my six-year-old nephew, and they spent the entirety of the first 75 minutes asking me, Chichio, when's Neymar going to play? Chichio, is Neymar going to play? Chichio, do you think Neymar's coming in?
00:30:44
Speaker
And I just kept having to say, like, oh, he might come in in the second half. He might come in in the second half. And then I'm just basically on Neymar watch. It's like, oh, He took it. He took his penny off. He might be coming in and then he's in and they're just locked to the television for the last 15 minutes of Neymar because that is the star power of this guy. And doesn't matter that he didn't run. It doesn't matter that he can't contribute anything. Entirely of this country is just locked on this guy and and they want to see him play and they want to see him do well. And and look, as you said,
00:31:11
Speaker
Took a couple of quarters. They were fine. Should Neymar play when it matters for Brazil? Probably not. No, but it didn't matter here. And it helped with the overall vibes of this team. So yeah, it was the Neymar show in Miami. Brazil win this group. omit They will play either the Netherlands, Japan, or Sweden in what is shaping up to be the quadrant of death of this bracket.
00:31:32
Speaker
Obviously, it's most likely that it's Japan. In this situation with with the Netherlands and Japan both winning, the Netherlands keeping maybe a goal differential edge. I think Brazil would really love for Sweden to be able to pull off an upset of Japan and somehow pop up as the runner up in this group.
00:31:46
Speaker
Look, if that's a difficult matchup. The potential round of 16 matchup is difficult, but they're showing as high a level as we've seen from them. So now let's see if they can carry that into the knockout round. It's a gauntlet, right? Because then even if you get through the two of those, it could be England and then it could be Argentina, Portugal. Who knows? It's just going to be really, really, really tricky every game.
00:32:07
Speaker
um Let's see if it's Japan before we even kind of talk about that one. It's it's a bit early. Japan beat them in a friendly ah before, which is just a friendly and it just does not seem like that would be relevant. I think the other thing for Brazil is the Morocco game feels like a long time away, but like the defense here is, is, is good too, right? Like Gabriel was really good in this game. And when they can leave three guys up, and but or even two and defend with everyone else, the midfield suddenly looks good at defense, even if pocket on Casamira or nom are not anomaly in practicality, not good defenders. So yeah,
00:32:46
Speaker
It's all feeling really good right now. it it it could turn really fast. That's the one thing I'm worried about. Once you start asking those questions, it might be they just played Haiti and Scotland and they're feeling really great. We said the mission for Scotland in this game of it was to limit the damage, right? They came in on three points and zero goal differential and they wanted to keep that goal differential as clean as possible.
00:33:07
Speaker
They weren't really able to do that. I think three goals was a bit more than what Steve Clark, who every time they cut to Steve Clark on the touchline, it feel like he was redder than he was before lately. The sun's not even out in Miami and he's just constantly getting more sunburned.
00:33:20
Speaker
But this is a sweaty situation now for Scotland. And I think given what we've seen now with South Korea slotting in at three points minus one, we'll touch on the third place stuff at the end of the show. But they, I think, are going to be the bubble team right on the line. And they may be sweating it out all the way until Algeria, Austria on the last night.
00:33:39
Speaker
They're going to be. I mean, it was coming into the day around 50%, around 55 for three minus three, right, where they're at. Now it's around 40. After the game, but without even looking at the table, I bet you hasn't looked, Steve Clark goes, we're probably going home.
00:33:54
Speaker
And I think he knew that, and I don't think there was a lot he could do once his team made the mistakes they made in the first half. There's scenarios when you play this game where Scotland...
00:34:05
Speaker
keep it tight for longer escape with one. There's scenarios where they score. I think they, they kept trying in the second half. It wasn't particularly good, but they kept using the ball. They kept hitting long balls. There was just not enough quality.
00:34:18
Speaker
They're like Steve Clark can't save this team. There there's like one good, good player. There's like three decent rotational midfielders.
00:34:29
Speaker
The three is strong, two rotational midfielders. Then there's like two good in one phase outside backs like Robertson, Tierney. They're not good at the other way.
00:34:42
Speaker
Johnson's a good player. You've kind of worked your way to six. It's not enough. It's not enough. and And look, Scotland is a team that probably belonged in a fate similar to Czechia, probably belonged to the European playoff. They stunned Denmark on the final day of qualifying. um They were close to Morocco, right?
00:35:04
Speaker
But this format is just enough that they might get through and who knows. But I don't think anyone could be very impressed by them. They're extremely limited. As you said, they can't play the style they want to. And if they play the style they don't want to, they're worse at it.
00:35:17
Speaker
Other game in this group, a 4-2 win from Morocco over Haiti in Atlanta. I bet the Haiti show finally arrived at the World Cup. We were ha waiting for this type of performance from Haiti.
00:35:28
Speaker
No, it didn't end in any points. But yes, they gave us some great moments. This was just a throwback CONCACAF Haiti game where it's just we're just going to keep swinging. We're going to score a backheel goal in the box. We're going to hit a hashtag upper 90 shot throwback to the very early days of the World Cup after dark.
00:35:47
Speaker
And yeah, you might score four goals on us, but we're going to dance our way through. This was just a really, really fun game. It was. And credit to Haiti. You kind of knew they would give it to the people. This is just how they are. And it was awesome. Because like, look, Morocco rotate, but the players on the field of Morocco are still good. They're still very technical. And Haiti are just not scared of them. And the majority of this game was Morocco just kind of walking the ball down, getting their cutbacks, getting their wide overloads, having their chances.
00:36:18
Speaker
But Haiti were so, so adventurous with the ball and just running constantly to free space. Both goals are are awesome. And I do think the one thing you see on the on how aggressive Haiti is how aggressive those fullbacks are allowed to be. You know, Duvern gets really, really high up the field on the first goal.
00:36:35
Speaker
And Anas Salah, Dean, the backup left back who's in for Masrawi, gets beat. And then Lenny Joseph pounces when Bounou makes a mess of it. This is kind of wacky. This is a very wacky goal, but you'll take it, right? If you're Haiti, then Morocco kind of just, you know, come back and and score right away. But credit to Haiti, they didn't stop then either.
00:36:55
Speaker
Look, the Lenny Joseph goal, it's just it's a backheel because it had to be a bad like Haiti's goal at this World Cup. It was never going to be anything else than something that was just slick and clean and so much fun like this. Yes, as you said, but Morocco get back on this. And I i thought Saibari has been really good for Morocco in this tournament. I thought he was really good in this situation against Haiti.
00:37:19
Speaker
He had a good game and he has shown his quality here. He has. I mean, he's got that move to Bayern lined up. ah Today, he's at the 10 because Alcabi starts because they just want to give Saibari some help and not ask him to be a alone up top. and i think he slides into that role pretty well. He's kind of a strikery 10 in that he's not like unlocking the defense. He's just kind of hanging out where he wants and finding shots, finding box contributions.
00:37:48
Speaker
He's a really, really high IQ player in the final third. And he's very physically gifted, can strike a ball. Like, it's a really, really lethal combo. This guy's a big move, and they're going to need more from him, I think, because they've gotten a lot from him. But the one thing for Morocco that you can think about from this game is I thought Elkabi gave them a little bit more tooth going forward, a little bit extra body going forward. And the issue is, if you play Elkabi, one of your very...
00:38:18
Speaker
tricky wizardy midfielders has to sit, right? Buwadi and Unahi are the two guys that sit today. Unahi the wizardy guy that's sitting. But I just like that look of Saibari a little bit deeper to get her more touches on the ball. He didn't feel so isolated. And look, it's Haiti, but like when he's in space more or if he can make things happen more, Morocco look a bit more dynamic. And I thought...
00:38:44
Speaker
Hakimi's always Hakimi. He has a great game regardless, too. He's involved a lot. But everything was just a little bit more juiced. Again, it's the opponent adjustment. How do you rate that? But... ah Maybe it's as simple as the Saibari goes, Morocco goes. So the six-minute stretch right before halftime, this was just pure Haiti international football, like unadulterated, right? Like you're just consuming this. Just inject all of it, right? So it starts with Morocco scoring. Atraf Hakimi pounces on, unfortunately, a bit of a mock-up here from Johnny Placide.
00:39:16
Speaker
Yeah, it's a cross to his near post. He shouldn't be beat. He'd been excellent so far, I think, dealing with a lot of shots of the box. When the cross comes and you're not expecting, you just got to get it out of play. And he just kind of like volleyball sets it. Not quite. He dives. It goes up over his head. And then Hakimi is there behind him for a Quinones-esque goal. It's unfortunate from Placide. But...
00:39:37
Speaker
They keep going. So, all right, Morocco now. All right, 1-1, five minutes before halftime. It's time to push. Time to push. Put the advantage to the medal. And it's time for another classic Haiti moment where a ball just bounces to Wilson Isidore and he just says, oh, see that top left corner? I'm going pick it out. Upper 90 shot.
00:39:55
Speaker
This is the purest, purest hit of the tournament. I think Mbappe's is great, but the just just watch the strike on this ball. It doesn't touch anything into the corner from 30. I mean, Isidro's a good player. and This is just awesome. And then the Morocco fan, the Morocco fan, on the Haiti goal is doing the shake that oh that was hot like ah that was way too hot I need to cool off after that shot and that's just you know sometimes that little moment right there is why we do it right like that is the beauty of the World Cup third day the beauty of Haiti Morocco like that's universal so what was it that I just said okay now Morocco have five minutes they can push for halftime now that this Isidore goal has gone in can I use that line Morocco have five minutes and they can push before halftime
00:40:40
Speaker
They just get right back to it. And this is where with all the hydration breaks and not to go on a segue here, but just because it makes sense, like the last five minutes of halftime plus stoppage time is when you get a team so so um frazzled, especially when you are the better team. Their legs are tired and you've ran them around the field. And ah to my point of what Morocco were doing, whatever they wanted, they just they just did it again. um They work another goal.
00:41:06
Speaker
And so what happens here, it's a long ball over the top to Hikimi. He cuts it back again. Brahim Diaz makes a really good feint at it. And it's the trailing Saibari who I complimented earlier. Just call with picks out the left side.
00:41:18
Speaker
This is like the training ground stuff, right? Like this, these are the exercises you do to practice finishing. Right. And the the thing that's hard to defend is how high Hikimi gets over the top. But Morocco's like patterns, we we said this about them back in 2022 when they surprised us. Now it's not a surprise. If you do not take time off the ball, like it looks this smooth.
00:41:41
Speaker
So it ends up as a 4-2 win for Morocco. We'll get to the last two goals in a second. But before they do, Amit, we have to just give a shout out to one of our World Cup After Dark favorites because he gets his World Cup debut. And for the last 20 plus minutes of this game, it's Duckins Nizan at the FIFA World Cup. Amit, did we ever think we'd see the day?
00:42:01
Speaker
I hoped we would see the day when Haiti got through, but i'm I'm glad he got his moment. I wish he got um a moment in in slightly higher stakes football. But look, this guy gave us one of the best, best performances of qualifying when he hit that bike in the 3-3 draw against Costa Rica. If you haven't seen that, really make time. Go do it. It's truly iconic. It's the World Cup after dark spirit. There's a reason why we love this guy. And he got crunched by Sofia Navarro in transition as a welcome to the World Cup.
00:42:27
Speaker
Yeah, that was funny. Haiti, as we talk about, they get the ball and they run, they run, they run, and they're going to try to score. And Amrabat just decks him. And the ref is like, that's fine with me. Like Amrabat's a strong guy. And that's what's funny, right? Like, Duccan's was on as a big fellow. Like, he's he's a thick backup striker. And Sophia Amrabat just tosses him like a linebacker. So that was just very funny physical comedy. And kind of a few minutes after this is when Morocco gets their third. So Rahimi scores the third. It's Yassine with the fourth, which is a literal tap. It's a really nice finish in traffic for the third. I think Morocco might be regretting a bit only getting one against Scotland, but we kind of talked about this. The paths really aren't that different between winning this group and finishing runner-up. It's probably likely that Morocco will have to play the Netherlands in the round of 32, which is maybe a touch more difficult than what will face Brazil. Yeah.
00:43:22
Speaker
But the counter of that is that it might be a bit easier for Morocco. It would be easier for Morocco in a theoretical round of 16 matchup with either South Africa or Canada. So because of that, I don't think there's a ton to regret here. And I think this team is heading into the knockout round, firing at all cylinders with a bit of momentum.
00:43:41
Speaker
They are, they've got to feel good, but Morocco, Netherlands is a bloodbath. Yeah. Like, man, that is a bloodbath. Like, i think Japan is, you'd rather play Japan for one game. And there is more to that than one game. It's not that Morocco can't win that game, but...
00:43:59
Speaker
Oh boy, there should be goals in that. Like I'm just tinkering to give up Morocco Netherlands. There's so much talent on the field. That's a shame that one of those teams is going to have to go home. Look it. The margins are so tough. If you are Morocco, you back yourselves. I think the thing that I can say is that like, they're not underdogs in that game. I think it's two teams and pretty fair footing. Like Netherlands might be slightly favored by a computer, but like,
00:44:22
Speaker
Morocco is just the top 10 team in the world now. And at this point, like they could be seventh or eighth in the world. And we know the Netherlands is right there. Why not? Right. I think this team has to believe they can. And maybe they back their defensive solidity more than the Netherlands defensive solidity. They ship two to Japan. Morocco should can get more than two. So if if if that happens, I think that'll be one of the games, the game of the round of 32. It's certainly like a World Cup classic just on two narratives. Yeah. Yeah, and it's the point that you and I have made consistently while we've been doing this show throughout this tournament, ahead of this tournament. The draw is such that the round of 32 is just going to give you so many different games. And so the same round that's giving us Canada and South Africa facing off against each other is giving us potentially Morocco and the Netherlands facing off against each other, two legitimate top 10 teams. It's got to be a really, really good game.
00:45:12
Speaker
all right last group to break down a minute is the first group that we saw today. it is Group B. These games happened on different paths, right? There wasn't overlap between Canada, Switzerland and Bosnia, Qatar.
00:45:22
Speaker
Unless Bosnia scored a bunch of goals and Canada gave up a bunch of goals, it wasn't going to cross into somebody being able to cross. Do you want to start with with third place or first place in this group?
00:45:33
Speaker
We could talk about first place and leave the the best fun for last. I think it was not that fun of a game, but let's talk about Canada, Switzerland. i think the question in this one was going to be how Canada could defend. They had the point advantage and, know,
00:45:49
Speaker
you see Switzerland from the start stating their intentions, right? Endoy sits, Manzambi and Vargas starts. That is a statement of intent from McKeen. We're going for the goal. We've got more dynamic speed on the field to support N'Bolo. Have fun defending that. And very clearly, the the story of the game is, can Jesse Marsh, like...
00:46:09
Speaker
get his center backs not to get the ball over top of them in space. And they try really hard. But the the truth is, like, his team is his team. They're not going to fully bunker. They got to think they can test the midfield. And what happens in this game?
00:46:25
Speaker
space for Manzambi, he shreds them. And that is the first goal at some point. Look, it's like Canada have have chances here. Switzerland have the first chances in the 10th minute. And Bolo is the guy who who just kind of shoots it at Carpeau. Lahren has his chance in space. He tries to jubble the keeper. He he doesn't quite score. Turns out he's off sides. But like you can see their space is there for Lahren and David, who I think has been a really good decision for Marsh. And he tries to challenge the Switzerland back line here.
00:46:53
Speaker
But after the hydration break, like um it's kind of more of this. tradition Sorry, it's the second half where this kind of breaks open. And that's where MnZombie right after halftime gets past his man and breaks the whole game open. And it's interesting because it's Monsami and it's Vargas, who are the two guys that we really pointed out as making the difference for breaking open the game against Bosnia, who start this game from the start and then, yeah, takes them into the second half to have the actual goal moment. But when they do, it's just really, really good. It's a through ball into space for Monsami. He gets across his man, plays it across the box. And Briello Mbolo, who I think was up and down again in this game, as he has kind of been throughout this tournament,
00:47:33
Speaker
but is a much better player when playing alongside Vargas and Manzami. He is able to occupy space and he's able to take room away from defenders, right? He holds a defender and Canada is completely caught out and it's Vargas with a well-taken finish, but there's plenty of space for him to take advantage of it. And that's exactly what Switzerland were trying to create in this game. And that's exactly what they end up creating in this situation for the first goal.
00:47:57
Speaker
I think it's just frustrating for Marsh, right? And his team that they get caught in space literally 30 seconds after halftime. And it's sure some of it's naivety in his part, but like that's the one thing you can't do when you have the draw in this game. Look, I'm sure Marsh is saying we can just go score or if they score one. We can just go score and get the draw back. They try immediately after the goal. Kyle Lahren has a header point blank and he just misses by the Ronaldo margin of so close. um And then right back, It's another long ball over the top. The center backs are caught out here. i thought this was a really tough game for Cornelius, and I'm going to butcher it, but D'Fugero, the other center back next to him. Look, we were hoping Bambito could play. He was hurt.
00:48:40
Speaker
Can't really count on him. These guys are just not of the speed, and and Bolo gets behind them, then holds it up. He draws two defenders. He lays it off to Manzambi, who runs 30 yards down the right-hand side, and he hits it really hard. And it goes right to the hands of Maxime Krupo, and he kind of bobbles it his own net. Look, this is a really nice play. This is a really good transition moment from Switzerland. At the end of day, it's still a savable chance. And this is also exactly what you can't have if you're going to play this game model of allowing high volume. You need a guy that's going to steal you some saves, not give give the other team some goals.
00:49:16
Speaker
It's not what Breland Bolo thought on this play, but what you and I think that Breland Bolo thought on this play was, I'm going to let him finish because he's better at finishing than I am. It's what it looked like. It's funny. and some of the reason why you said it yourself is that he looks better with these other guys is he can be a little unselfish and use his gravity when he has to create the shot for himself. He's going one on two, one on three. But if he could do that and then find that space off of it, he's like a much more effective player. And we saw this just for an example with the whole Nico Jackson, Ismael Sar thing. like Some of these big bruising center forwards, they're having tough tournaments finishing, but they can find a way to help their other attackers. And you can't say enough about Munzambi, right? like he has...
00:50:08
Speaker
totally, totally shaken up this whole tournament's, I think, tenor with his play and what Switzerland could do in their top level of what they can do. They profiled as a bit of a slower and older team. And yes, their back six are slow, but he is not. He is life. He is injection of pace and and energy and skill. And Canada down to zero because they didn't respect it. I like two times they're caught in space and now it's turning to, I didn't think Switzerland were going be this team, but if you're a better team, Switzerland didn't face a better team and you're in a knockout rounds and you're playing them. I don't think you can just walk up the field against them and think you're going to be fine. You have to now give them respect or you're going to get got that math changes everything.
00:50:53
Speaker
Canada play mixer ball down two goals in this game and they find some success with it. And this is where I think you come back to Craypole along the second goal. Like you can afford to get caught out once, but then getting caught out twice just really made it so that the math didn't work at the end of this game because they bring on promise, David, they start to play plan B mixer ball lump it in and it works. <unk>s It does really effective stuff here.
00:51:17
Speaker
um It's the the cross from Saliba. Saliba runs the channel. he He gets a long ball over the top, takes it down, spins his defender on the first touch, and then sprays it over the other defender to Promise David.
00:51:32
Speaker
Finishes with the outside of his right foot past Kobol, who had been really good. This is really, really silky and really, really direct. And this is how Marsh wants to attack. And I thought Canada's...
00:51:44
Speaker
player pool is weird, but like they've got four or five good strikers. Like David, it was a menace here. And this was a really good run from Saliba as well. Just as we were kind of ra ragging on the Canada defense for allowing transition, you're up two. And this is a moment where you allow two on two on your center backs. Probably can't half of your Switzerland. But that's just the idea that Canada can get verticality at any time. Canada got one. They tried to get a second. They got a couple of looks that were almost intriguing. Right. But it felt like every single one of them was kind of right at Colville. And they never really were that close to finding the second goal.
00:52:20
Speaker
They did a good job of getting the ball in the box, totally locking Switzerland in. I think this is Canada's best little look at beating a tough team is that they can get to this gear. They'll live with what happens, but they can assault the box.
00:52:34
Speaker
The XG kind of ends up at 1.1 to 1.3 in Canada's favor. Now that's game state, right? They're down two and they can they're allowed to go for it. And so that's not quite fair to who is the better team, but this is good mixer ball, I think on the whole. So Marsh can take that.
00:52:50
Speaker
But as you said, right, then you go back to you can't be shipping a goal from your goalkeeper. And then also you go back to the 1-1 versus Bosnia ends up being the difference is that you should have maybe done some more of this mixer balling then when you had the chance against a worse team.
00:53:05
Speaker
Switzerland, um mean it wasn't necessarily easy here, I think, but they showed their quality. They held on against their ah worst team. That'll play. They won the group. They'll stay in Vancouver. They'll play a third-place team in the round of 32. We'll see that the most likely scenario is that it's it's Algeria or Austria coming out of Group J.
00:53:24
Speaker
Egypt are a possibility coming out of the the Belgium group as well, which is Group G. So it could be a third place team from that group. It could be Algeria, Austria. We'll see. Could be Portugal in the round of 16. There's still a lot to to be decided as to what that that matchup looks like.
00:53:38
Speaker
But it's a path here for Switzerland. And with Monsambi and Vargas and Mbola, with these guys playing like this, kind of are buying it a little bit. I am. I think they will be favored in their round of 32 matchup. I like them a lot. And look, if it is Portugal, we'll talk about that game when it gets there.
00:53:56
Speaker
But I still think Portugal will be favored, but I like their chances because of the way the math is working for them. And We'll see if their defense holds up. I think that's the one thing in this group, like in open play outside of mixer ball, we're not really threatened at any point. So when you face a team, imagine if it's Portugal, how does that work when you're a little old and slow in the back?
00:54:17
Speaker
But if you play pure defending counter, it's a different game. So feeling really good about this. I think Mert, Joaquin, has had his ups and downs as this has went on, but it's kind of settled into a decent identity for this team. When this group you get to stay. i think there are a lot of benefits to that. So job well done on the end.
00:54:35
Speaker
You, ah you described Burr at Yaqeen as a ah silver Fox on our, on our preview pod for Switzerland. Did you enjoy the moment early on in this match when he was forced to change his shirt because it was the same color as Canada and he just peeled off the white shirt and went straight to the black shirt. This man i had no qualms about showing the bod off.
00:54:52
Speaker
No, he did not. he knows what he He knows what he's working with on the sideline. Canada, meanwhile, they lose the home field advantage, right? that They have to come to the U.S. s now to play their knockout games. They don't get to stay in Vancouver, but they get South Africa at the round of 32. And if maybe the initial goal for Canada was to simply win a knockout round game, you can't really take many qualms with the matchup that they've been given here.
00:55:14
Speaker
You can't look South Africa is dangerous. They just beat Korea. and I don't think all of these teams are that far away from each other, but if you were picking a team that you could get in the round of 32, don't think you could pick a lot of teams better than than South Africa. I think South Africa on talent or ranking might be one of the worst teams in the round of 32. And so even if you're an NLA, like,
00:55:39
Speaker
you're going to regret it a lot. If you lose that game, South Africa, if they lose that game might be upset, they might regret it too. But like, Oh man, I think you, you immediately turn into, this was a failure for Canada. If you lose this game, it's really, I think a lot, a lot of pressure to have, to be favored. How many times, and this is the way the draw went, but like,
00:56:01
Speaker
would you expect to be a favorite in a knockout game for Canada? there's just not really a thing that happens. And that's the expanded tournament, but like, ah you gotta have it. You simply gotta have it. Speaking of teams that are going to be among the lower ranked teams in the round of 32 field. That's what we got in Seattle. It was Bosnia and Qatar, ostensibly for a spot in the round of 32, but maybe more importantly, a can't draw classic because if you draw, you're probably going out Bosnia come out of this game. Three, one winners. Uh, I don't think Bosnia are convincing anybody. my my My optimism about them from the preview podcast was perhaps a bit misguided, but they did have enough on the wings here to cook Qatar.
00:56:43
Speaker
Switzerland didn't do that, right? um They didn't play their best players, but Switzerland didn't do that. The Qatari plan was simply to let Akram Afif cook. it It worked at points in this game as we'll get to. He had a chance where he got all alone back the other way after Bosnia just got set piece together.
00:56:59
Speaker
defending really set piece attack really wrong on their end. But soon she's got, got a touch to get it away from a thief that could have changed the start of this game. Just when it looked like Bosnia were laboring, just when it looked like this might be a bit harder than it was.
00:57:12
Speaker
One of those talented wingers, Ali bag of it dribbles past two very stationary. Katari defenders looks up and fires back the net bang. This is the lack of kind of incentive for from the Qatari defense, right? They're not pressuring in a situation where they should have been pressuring.
00:57:29
Speaker
Alia Begovic probably shouldn't be able to take the ball from where he gets it into this space, but it's still a really nice finish. It's great hit. It's one of the the best hits of the day. One of the best hits of the tournament. There's a lot of good ones. And yeah, I think Qatar structural defense was not horrible in this game, but their individual defense and urgency on the ball showed up a few times on this goal, on the next goal. And it's,
00:57:55
Speaker
It's it's like fixable. You think it's fixable from an objective point of view, but like that's just what they've shown us on tape over and over again. And then the second goal for Bosnia comes five minutes after Ali Begovic's strike. It's Edin Dzeko who's trying to cross the ball back into play to runners and he just plops it off Al Baraka, the Qatari defender, and it's in it's an own goal. It's unfortunate, but it's not great positioning here either. And it's a pretty intelligent play from Dzeko like he's playing a dangerous ball regardless and and he just gets the benefit of a bounce.
00:58:24
Speaker
Yeah, i again, this one, the ball gets all the way over the top of Obrac in the first place, and he has no awareness of Dzeko is, and that's weakness there. And the goalkeeper also, yes, it's a tough bounce on on the stop, but he I think he also could have done bit better. better Again, to the point, the box defending was poor from Qatar here.
00:58:43
Speaker
And this really should have been it, right? We're starting to even look off Canada start losing in Bosnia. Keep scoring. It should, but Bosnia are just not good enough to be trusted in a situation like that because Qatar finds some joy in this game. Akram Afif starts a really nice play on the right. The ball coming across back to him is out of his reach, but Adam Wilson Jr. a Guy who I've ragged on a ton in this tournament finally does something good. he drags it for Aljados, who gets the start, and Aljados beats his defender, pokes it through the legs of his defender and the back of the net for 2-1. And then again, before halftime, Qatar nearly make it 2-2 when Afif again, space in the midfield, he plays into Pedro Miguel, and he puts his effort off the post. Afif was everywhere, and he is the bright spot for Qatar. He has been the bright spot for Qatar.
00:59:31
Speaker
He very nearly dragged them back into this match, more so than just 2-1. hes He's making it all happen. And I think there's something to Bosnia's level that up 2-0, they're just kind of struggling to to cover this guy in defense and his dynamism on the ball. And that's something to pay attention to for how to play Bosnia. Yeah.
00:59:53
Speaker
Akram Afif got ah a tight angle shot in the second half that that he just put high. that They bring on Elmueza Ali. It doesn't have a ton of success. Yulon Lopetegui admit for all of his faults, and and there have been plenty.
01:00:05
Speaker
He wanted this man. You know how I could tell it that he wanted it? On a sunny day in Seattle, which was admittedly warm, but not exactly baking, the dude is just dripping sweat in this game. Like in places that you just didn't think you could be dripping sweat, he's got a light-colored shirt, which is just a poor choice. If you know it's going to be hot, go with the dark-colored shirt, and you can you can cover yourself a little bit here.
01:00:28
Speaker
Yeah, he's not exactly what Carlo Ancelotti put off today. I think the winner of the day, he wore a three-piece all-black suit in Miami for Brazil. Looked like he was selling watches. The epitome of cool. Looked like he didn't sweat a day in his life. Lapetek is having a horrible, horrible time here. And look, I like to see that he he wants it, right? He believes in his team. They're right there, actually, for a lot of this game.
01:00:51
Speaker
He's also not very keen either, right? Not exactly going to take it off and show how smooth he is. So tough one for him. I hope that Elon Lopetegui isn't planning on staying around a long time for Qatar. I'm sure that he's not like it's not the job that you take. And you think I'm going to be here for a long time because an Asian qualification cycle where you're managing games in the Middle East and then getting shipped to Southeast Asia where it's 90 with 90 percent humidity. It's not going to go well for Lopetegui if he's sweating like this in Seattle. That's my point there. So Ed and Dzeko is taken off as we get back to the actual football. And he's not very happy about being taken off. Momich is the man who comes on. You think Bosley might be getting a bit more defensive. But Sergey Barbaris once again shows his chops because the sub works. And it's Momich, the man who comes on for Dzeko. He's a late arrival in the box.
01:01:35
Speaker
Guess what? A bit Qatar again, don't handle a situation in the box that they could have or should have. And Momich fires off of the hands of Abunada and in. It's the Qatar box defending once again.
01:01:46
Speaker
And we get a ah calf shirt removal celebration here from Momich, which is probably the level that Bosnia are at because they're making the round of 32. Got to celebrate it Yeah, it's triumphant feeling. I think Bosnia, it's a big, big achievement for them. Again, just one of the last teams to get in here too from qualifying.
01:02:04
Speaker
um This is really, really poor defending. Like this isn't even of the level. Like this wouldn't work in Asia. Qatar's... inability to clear the ball, inability to get stuck in a tackle, inability to track a runner in the box. All three of those are a really, really bad combo. And like, yeah, we rag on them, but like, go, go watch this goal. It's like really, really frustrating. It's like a car crash in slow motion.
01:02:29
Speaker
I believe the term you used to be watching this goal live was a high school defending from the Qataris here. yeah i was hoping to escape without saying it, but yeah, it was that it was that bad. That's really what happened.
01:02:41
Speaker
So Bosnia are in. They've guaranteed themselves a spot in the round of 32 four points, which also is important because that lets us know that any third place team on four points will advance and will get through because Bosnia have a poor goal differential, right? They're on four points, but it's a minus one goal differential.
01:02:58
Speaker
And so what that means, Amit, is barring one unlikely possibility of third place combinations, which would send Bosnia into a matchup with Germany, this Bosnia team is going to be the opponent for the U.S. in San Francisco in the round of 32.
01:03:13
Speaker
We can get to this game when we talk about the U.S. tomorrow. We can come back to this game when we will preview the round of 32 on Sunday. But this is a matchup that the U.S. will be very pleased with. Very, very, very pleased with. It's must-win for the United States. They'll be heavily favored. They've got a home field advantage. Again, from Riccio Pochettino and the entire team also couldn't have picked a lot better. It's also just a type of team that does not profile well against what the U.S. does. We will talk about it more, but it's all coming up good for them.
01:03:44
Speaker
would ah Would you like to see Saad Kolasinac defending the U.S. attack? Because that's what you're going to get. I hope Mauricio Pochettino knows barbecue chicken in Bosnian because that's what that game is going to be for poor Saad.
01:03:56
Speaker
All right, let's look at the third place table because I think it's it's a good way to to track kind of where we're at. As we said, Bosnia threw on four points. South Korea confirmed on three minus one. Scotland confirmed on three minus three. You, Amit, said that Steve Clark is not convinced that his Scotland side will get through.
01:04:13
Speaker
feels like they're going to be the bubble team. Their odds have gone dipping down already from where they were, you know, kind of 50% post game. Then group a turns in a likely third place contender in Scotland are already down to 38%. And when you look at the other groups here, right? just blowing through them quickly. Group D, Paraguay and Australia could finish on three or four points. Paraguay are team to circle if they lose by a couple of goals. That's a team that Scotland are maybe looking at.
01:04:38
Speaker
Group E, it's looking difficult for Ecuador and Curaçao. Unless Ecuador can win or Curaçao can win, you're likely looking at one or two there. Sweden and Group F come into the day in their game on three points and a minus and a zero goal differential, right?
01:04:53
Speaker
Unless Sweden lose big, they're going to stay in front of Scotland. They might even be able to stay in front of South Korea. Group G, anything could happen, right? It's so hard to try and figure out what that third place team is going to look like just because of what that is. Uruguay and Group H could finish on two or three as a third place team unless they win. You get a different combination.
01:05:13
Speaker
Group i if Senegal are to win, they're on three points. That would put them at at least three minus two. Again, ahead of Scotland, maybe still behind South Korea. Group J, Austria-Algeria is going be the final game of the group stage. That could be a very interesting proposition for what happens in that game.
01:05:33
Speaker
But that third place team could be on three or four. DR Congo would get to four in Group K if they're able to win. In Group L, Croatia are already on three minus one. So unless Ghana can beat Croatia, Croatia would pass
Scotland's Qualification Challenges
01:05:44
Speaker
them.
01:05:44
Speaker
The math isn't really mathing here for Scotland. Yeah, you're trying to count to four teams, right? Of the situations you described, right? They need four teams to be below them to get in to eighth, right? That's just to confirm we're counting to four. that's what we're going to count. Famously, if you listen to this podcast, one of us is really bad at counting. It's me. Let's start.
01:06:04
Speaker
Ecuador Curacao is the most most likely one here. Ecuador probably going to – if they beat Germany, then you're really in trouble, right? But if they lose to Germany, you got one there. You're really in the same vein. You're really looking at Uruguay trying to draw Spain.
01:06:21
Speaker
If they draw Spain, is that they're on three? If they draw Spain, they're on three and zero. that they taste They need lead to lose to Spain. Spain could beat them, right? You just saw the mexico Mexico beat the the team worse than them, even though they rotated. Okay, that's two.
01:06:35
Speaker
Now you need two more, and that's where you're you're struggling. Paraguay could happen, right? If Paraguay loses by one, what does that put them at? So Pargwai coming into that game in third place from group D, they're on three minus two. So they lose by one. They go down to three minus three. But they have two goals scored in Scotland. Have one goal ah They're going need Pargwai to lose by two. Pargwai to lose by two. Dicey. But OK, maybe that's your third team. um Yeah, Ghana could beat Croatia. I don't think that's crazy. Like, I i don't think that's crazy, right?
01:07:07
Speaker
Yeah, but you need it to happen by multiple goals because, again, Croatia are on minus one. You're going to need three-goal win for Ghana for Croatia to fall behind Scotland. I'm not liking that. I think you've got to come back.
01:07:17
Speaker
How is this 40%? You're coming to Group G, right? You're counting on maybe Egypt and Belgium both win and then a rounder on two points and and they're behind Scotland. okay but So I think that's a likely chance. But, again, there's so much that can happen in that group.
01:07:31
Speaker
The thing is, neither Ecuador nor Uruguay are guaranteed to not win those games. Like you're really counting on them, too. And if they both get results, then you're definitely cooked, right? Then you're down at five, 10 percent, aren't you? Yeah, but there's some other scenarios, right? Algeria could lose by two goals to Austria and they would finish behind. Again, I don't think that's going to happen because of where the game three map is going to be in that game. i Congo could fail to beat Uzbekistan, right? That would give another possibility. That's another number that it could be.
01:08:01
Speaker
um you're hoping you're They're on the wrong end of too many results. I think that's why they're at 40, right? The results that you would feel better about being the right end on are like two and a half, right? G plus Ecuador and Uruguay.
01:08:18
Speaker
Then you need both. Even if both of those go right, maybe that's your 30%. thirty percent The last five is Paraguay or Ghana Paraguay or Croatia losing by multiple goals. And that to me is maybe Iraq draw Senegal. Like there's possibilities in all of these group that, as you said, you're just trying to count to four, right? You only need four and you're just trying to get there and you don't really care how you do. And look again, a was supposed to be one, right? And that's where I think things get hard for Scotland because you were kind of counting on South Korea to take care of business and and get you one in the bag on the first night already.
01:08:53
Speaker
Yeah, that's why they're as low as they are already. I feel it feels really bad for Scotland. It does. I really don't really don't feel good about it. The athletic, for what it's worth, has South Korea as a 94 percent chance of getting through. That means there's a 6 percent chance. Again, that minus one against that minus three is just going to be a really, really big difference. And that's what
Upcoming Matches and Strategic Speculations
01:09:10
Speaker
we said coming in is that the goal difference on three points was going to be the factor. all right, Amit, second day of the last day of the group stage, last round of the group stage. I'm getting day and round and match. There's just too much going on in my head. It's hard to describe what these days are. We got six games tomorrow. That's what's the most important thing. We're starting in the Ecuador, Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast group. That is Group E. Ecuador, Germany, we just talked about it.
01:09:32
Speaker
Curacao, Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast we looking to take care of business. Curacao is still alive with chance. Then we'll move on to Group F, Sweden, Japan, Netherlands, Tunisia. And we close the night in Group D, Paraguay, Australia, and then the U.S., who have already clinched first place against already eliminated Turkey. Amit, what's the one group or one game you're looking for? Can I count that it's not going to be Netherlands, Tunisia?
01:09:54
Speaker
No, it's not. I think there are a few games here. I think Ecuador Germany is the most important. I think Ecuador have a lot to play for. I think they they they they got to try to win or draw even whatever we see from Germany. I think it's a pretty intriguing game. Whatever we get, their lineup is going to be pretty good.
01:10:12
Speaker
um Ecuador could really be dumped here. And I think they probably are favored to. I don't have the exact numbers. That to me is the biggest one. And then second, I think Paraguay, Australia is a World Cup after dark special. Who knows what could happen in that game? They probably can both get through if they play for a draw, but maybe they're not incentivized to. That could be interesting. I don't really have a lot of mileage out of Sweden, Japan, but there is some scenario that the goal difference could start getting wonky for Sweden, getting on the cut line if it's multiple goals, right? If Sweden...
01:10:41
Speaker
Sweden could finish a above Japan if they they win this game. Yeah, they could. And then that changes and that puts Japan into the third place pool. And that makes things interesting. and then it's Sweden who are Brazil's opponent.
01:10:52
Speaker
And like you said, look, the Sweden team just lost by four to the Netherlands, right? It's not out of the realm of possibility. They lose by four again and then they're in trouble. in the third place ranking. So there's a lot that could happen in that game that I think is pretty interesting. i think that's one that I'm certainly looking for. Ecuador have to win, right? ah draw is not going to do it because that would only put them on two points. So they have to win against rotated Germany. I think that's super interesting. Like this is an Ecuador team that we've picked up a bunch. A lot of people picked up a bunch coming into this tournament for them to get grouped in a group that also contained Curacao.
01:11:20
Speaker
Not a great look for them. And then yeah, Paraguay, Australia. um It's fascinating because as you said, ah draw is a mutually beneficial result for both of those teams, right? It would send Australia through in second in this group.
01:11:35
Speaker
It would send Paraguay through as a third place team, but it would most likely send Paraguay into a matchup with Germany in the round of 16. And we talked about this the last time we talked about this.
01:11:45
Speaker
If they finish as runner-up, they would play the runner-up of the Belgium group, which I guess could actually be Belgium at this state and time. So there's incentive to try to finish runner-up, but is it enough incentive to put your entire qualification at risk?
01:12:00
Speaker
And the math we said last time is good stuff. I'll follow would say no. So I think that I'll follow will go for the draw and then Povac will see that and just kind of shake it off. But
Curacao's Chances and Group Standings Analysis
01:12:10
Speaker
that's when things can get weird intentionally or unintentionally. Right.
01:12:13
Speaker
it can. It can. And that is what makes it really fun. I think Ivory Coast are are almost assuredly going to finish second. They should beat Curacao, but I guess they could technically fall into a a situation where they're not and they're finishing in third place. But I guess that would that would require Curacao to get a result. Curacao have an 11% chance ah of finishing as runner up if they can beat the Ivory Coast. so i don't know. Maybe either room's got one more trap door hanging around there in the back room of the house somewhere. and My analogy falling apart.
01:12:42
Speaker
Who knows? I mean, they're not dead, right? And if they just tied Ecuador, they could do something, right, against Ivory Coast. I don't think so, but we have to be aware, right? South Africa did what they did today. So there'll be a surprise somewhere in here. I don't know where, but there will be. That's what's great about the last day of the group stage. at the World Cup. and I will be back to recap the Thursday night games. We're shooting for a Friday morning recording, so be on the lookout for that on Friday morning. Enjoy the games on Thursday.
01:13:08
Speaker
Find us wherever you get your podcasts. Support us at patreon.com slash WCAD, and we will talk to you guys soon.