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Planning for 2025
51 Plays7 days ago
Join hosts Phillip Ramsey and Arron Cramer as they delve into their financial firm's 2024 journey and reveal their market predictions for 2025. Reflecting on unexpected market growth, team changes, and the impact of AI on business efficiency, they discuss their practice's evolution towards efficiency and the potential for future expansion. Phillip and Arron also share their personal insights on goal setting and market dynamics, providing a glimpse into their vision for sustainable growth and client success in the coming year.
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Transcript
Introduction to The Uncommon Wealth Podcast
00:00:00
Speaker
Everyone dreams of living an uncommon life, and the best asset you have to achieve your dreams is you. Welcome to the Uncommon Wealth Podcast. We're going to introduce you to people who are living uncommonly. We're also going to give you some tools and strategies for building wealth and for pursuing an uncommon path that is uniquely right for you.
Looking Forward with Optimism in 2025
00:00:27
Speaker
Hello and welcome everybody to another episode of the Uncommon Wealth Podcast. I'm your host, Phillip Ramsey. And I'm Aaron Kramer. Thanks for tuning in. As you can hear, my voice isn't the greatest, but we're going to go through and dominate because this is the first start of the 2025. I hope it's not an indicator of what's going to be coming, but I'm pretty excited about this year.
Reflecting on Past Predictions and Market Performance
00:00:46
Speaker
But this is the episode where we talk about last year, we actually have an update, who wins lunch, Aaron or Phillip, who nailed it, who was better with the market. We did a little prediction last year. If you wanted to, you can go back. It's about 25 minutes. We'll try to keep this fairly short. But I like these. They're kind of a journal for Aaron and I to talk through last year. What happened in the practice? What's going
Growth and Challenges in 2024
00:01:09
Speaker
on? What are we kind of excited about for the new year? And then we get to talk about predictions that we think are going to happen in this year's market.
00:01:16
Speaker
Anything else you want to cover? Aaron Kramer. No, I was good. I know who won the lunch that was more conservative. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Really? Oh, yeah. Yeah. I owe you lunch. Spoiler alert. I thought I was more conservative. thing Okay. Oh, I got it all on documented, buddy. It's all part of the the web. It's all h i know you can't get away from anything.
00:01:42
Speaker
All right, let's start here. 2024. Good
Inspirational Reads
00:01:45
Speaker
year, bad year. Hit me. What do you think? It was a good year. I totally agree. It was a great year. Now we hit we hit some adversity, we always do, but we overcame it. We chopped wood, we carried water. if you If you have no idea what that reference is, you might want to go back. There was a podcast we did on it. Aaron and I are pretty hyped up on this concept. It's a book. Love this book. Chop wood, carry water. um There was another book. what Which book did I like better? Pound the stone. Pound the stone, yeah.
00:02:12
Speaker
Was it Pound the Stone? Yep. Yes, you're right. Chop wood carry water is one I really liked. The Pound the Stone, it's okay, but I like the Chop wood carry water, so. You do like the analogy pound of Pound the Stone butter, it seems like. Yeah, right.
Adapting to Business Changes
00:02:28
Speaker
Well, I think the story, it's funny, if you, if we could use the analogy and pound a stone and chop wood, carry water, I think that would just like blow your money and be like, perfect. Yeah, I love it. Okay. So, uh, I really do feel like we, we've hit some adversity, but we overcame it. I feel like we're kind of hitting our cadence last year. We changed up a lot of things, philosophy, manage money. We talked about it in our podcast, um, about 12 months ago. We're shooting this on actually New Year's Eve, 2024. Last year, we we recorded something on 12-20, so December 20th. So we're a little bit over a year um in, but we're going to use the dates of December 20th just to give you a full year's snapshot.
00:03:12
Speaker
when we talk about the market. um But yeah, I think overall, um our philosophy hasn't changed. We've just continued to do the same thing. We've been managing people's money, putting our portfolios together. We've never had and been able to manage money as cheap as we have, and it's paid off. It's really been great. Aaron's done a great job. um It's been fun for both of us to see each other kind of overcome adversity throughout the year.
00:03:39
Speaker
Aaron's been studying for a CFP if you know anything about that certified financial planner um He's doing a great job with that. So That's kind of been a snapshot
Focus on Residual Income Strategy
00:03:49
Speaker
of our year. We have lost a teammate. Ashley Fox has gone and she is staying home with her kids. Her and her husband made a decision, which we're so excited for her. Sat on our end, our business has changed a little bit, but it's made us having to be way more efficient than we ever have been. I've got to kind of jump in roles that help me understand exactly what the day-to-day is, which I'm actually grateful for. but
00:04:13
Speaker
Good luck, Ashley. So thankful for all your hard work that you've done for help on Commonwealth be where it's at today. And now we're kind of just moving on. So we have Haley and then we have Aaron and myself. There's three of us. I think that'll probably change in the future, but right now we're trying to see how efficient we can be with the three that we have currently. yeah There's a snapshot. I don't know. What else do you want to talk about in 2024?
00:04:38
Speaker
I don't know, I think it was a good year. It's fun to like, I just guess recap what you said. we Just gotta learn, be more proficient. I mean, this industry, I think what's so fun about this industry and this job is that it's a constant.
00:04:52
Speaker
getting better. And I know I was texting the other day, like I heard, I was watching the stock market news, there was commercial, some business owner talking about how business is like the ultimate sport to be competitive in. Oh, love it. Being competitive. I was like, really? But then you think about it and it's like, it really is because you're constantly getting better. Like, yeah. And the field is huge with a lot of people. So, right. Um,
00:05:19
Speaker
It's fun to just constantly work to be better, to be know how to better serve people, have better balance, all those things. Right. And yeah, we've talked about this before, but just we're trying to build a practice that every year it gets easier and easier because of residuals. That's kind of the power of our business is to try to have more and more residuals so you can continue to serve the clients you have in a better capacity and yet you still have cashflow.
00:05:45
Speaker
That's what we've tried to build. That's what we're building. And so it's basically like a year and a half ah into this kind of trajectory.
Predictions for Market Growth in 2025
00:05:53
Speaker
And you know it usually says about five years, you know you really start taking off. I do feel like we've had some amazing growth in 2024. In 2025, I'm really confident that we're going to have even more growth because of the ways and the sacrificial ways that we've we've built the practice in the past. so yeah I'm really excited about that. I mean, it's really nice because the residuals, like when we're sitting on the same side of the table as the clients. And so, I mean, market does well, the practice does better. And if there's a big correction or crash, we make a lot less money. So it's like the firm does less.
00:06:25
Speaker
Not so good. Right. but you know And I do love that we get an opportunity to better ourselves, go through adversity, hit challenges, um and just see how we respond. And also have a partner in it, like, hey, Aaron, how are you doing over there? Not great. How are you doing? I'm in the weeds. how like So it's it's lonely at times, but man, it really does feel good to have somebody you know shoulder to shoulder fighting bad guys out in the streets, as I like to say. Yeah. so um Anyway, all right, so that's one of the things business grew. um I'd say we grew about 10 to 15% next year. Let's talk about that. I'm really excited. I want to grow 20%, which is a big number. But if you think about maybe the market and the market growing, that helps our percentage. So it's not like, hey, we want 15% from zero to 15 or zero to 20. That seems a little aggressive. When you do factor in the market,
00:07:19
Speaker
and the residual nature of our business, it isn't going to be 20%. It might be 10% growth and maybe the market helps us as well. So that's kind of my prediction as well as I think that we'll probably get our own physical office in 2025.
00:07:36
Speaker
So that's one of the things that we've really done a good job of trying to build this business in a decentralized
Goals vs. Core Values: A Philosophical Debate
00:07:42
Speaker
manner where everybody can be at home. Well you know we can use technology and zoom and things but I feel like we're at this point where you know I do feel like there's some confidence that is portrayed and perceived when you have a physical location. And so that's something that Aaron and I are talking about and trying to figure out when to step into that. But I think that's that can be coming in 2025. What other things do you foresee in 2025?
00:08:08
Speaker
Oh man, I I like just the same stuff. It's just constantly like trying to serve and be better, right? Like yeah and grow. Yeah, that was something interesting. I'm glad you brought that up. Because in 2024, I didn't really have any goals. I was just like, hey, we're going to serve people and try to do the best for people and like not worry about our selfish ideas of what goals we're going to try to achieve or not. We're just going to go serve people, see where God leads us. And in 2025, I feel like I'm now pulling off of that a little bit of like, okay, but it is fun to be able to, as a team, achieve something that you both, everyone's kind of trying to go for. So instead of just paddling down the river aimlessly, I feel like there might be some markers that we try to hit, like, hey, let's get over to that little tree over there, you know, and see if we can get there. Now, if we don't, that's okay too. There's definitely different philosophies on goals, but sometimes it's just nice to be able to have a measurement and tracking to see how are you doing,
00:09:06
Speaker
Where are you going? I like that i do. I do. And in 2024 was good because I feel like I kind of got accustomed to having no goals and I kind of liked it. And so part of me is like, do I do that again? And then the other part of me is like, yeah, but I like to challenge myself too. So.
00:09:23
Speaker
It's a balance. It's a heavy mix. I know, like, when we brought this up, but, like, when we talk about child book carry water, that same author wrote the book, and I know I talked to you about this a lot, but, wrote a book about burn your goals. Mm-hmm. That's where, like, you
Harnessing AI for Efficiency
00:09:37
Speaker
know, we talk about different philosophies. Those are, like, I'm never having goals again. I'm, like... I love it. You just, yeah, your values, and you just chase those really hard, like... Yeah, you know just, like, triple down on your values, which, honestly, like, I really respect that. I really do.
00:09:51
Speaker
So I can see it both ways. I don't know. i mean like kind hear me like me Every time I make a goal, I don't ever reach it. It's like, here's my big one. I was like, Oh, I'm going to get really strong way for like powerlifting. Yeah. And then I blow out my pack. Yeah. Well, you know what? Maybe it just make the, like the, the goal of the core value just to be as big and strong as healthy as I can. Cause then yeah if you get hurt, that can't get destroyed.
00:10:17
Speaker
There's, yeah, I love it. I love that too. Okay. All right. So here, let's go to our predictions. So in 2013, so December 20th, 2013, we just tracked the S and P the S and P was at 4,764.
00:10:33
Speaker
There's some odd sense in there, but 4,764. Aaron and I last year were like, hey, what do we think it's gonna be? Aaron, well, let's just go to Philip. Philip thought it was gonna grow 7.5%, okay? Which would have made the market 5,122, okay? So from 4,700 to 5,100. Aaron thought it was gonna be 8% growth.
00:11:01
Speaker
51,145. The market actually grew 22.6% which I love that we both were conservative on that because you just don't want to be the one to be like, I really think it's going to blow it out of the water and be, you know, the expectation could be unmet.
00:11:21
Speaker
Yeah, in that fairness, I don't think anybody who saw this year coming. Yeah, right. I agree. I agree. Although I just had, so I had a sneaky suspicion with the election. They were going to do something to be like, Hey, everything's good. Look at this. The market's doing great. So I had a feeling I didn't think it was going to be that good. So you're right. Yeah.
00:11:39
Speaker
Okay, so so what the market was, when it opened, December 20th, 2024, was 5,852. So from 4,700 to 5,800, that's a pretty big jump, hoo-ah. Okay, and so.
00:12:01
Speaker
How do we, how do you like me now? Now we're going to go to predictions of 2025, right? So in 12 months, December 20th, 2025, wait, I do have to say I owe Aaron lunch because what we were talking about is like, who's going to be better or who's going to be closer? Aaron or Phillip. Aaron took the over. I took the under. I guess you can look at that way. Aaron. Well,
00:12:25
Speaker
oh and this It's going to be interesting this year going forward because one, it is extremely rare to have two years back to back and like so high returns because I do remember like we went low because 2023 was an amazing return. Yeah, right. We've got two amazing years returns back to back and like to match that,
00:12:52
Speaker
for the third year is like, I think it's only happened like a handful of times. Right. Right. Super rare. So be thinking about that. And what's your prediction there, Aaron Kramer? You'd be thinking about that. I'm thinking out loud here. Yeah. Or less than you. Um, yeah. And again, like for compliance purposes, like we don't know, this is all speculation. I have no idea. This is for entertainment purposes only. Um, and it's for lunch because might as well do that again. Yeah. I know. So.
00:13:22
Speaker
I mean, key things that we got to look at, like, I mean, was the Magnificent Seven is what really drove drove the stock market this year, so. Do you think, you so, I think AI had a huge component of this. intelligence and Yeah,
00:13:35
Speaker
oh So, I think, I mean, that's going to continue. I think we've only skinned the surface on that. So I think artificial intelligence, and when you start digging into it and seeing ah all the different areas that that can hit, like. Yeah. yeah It's frightening and also kind of encouraging. It's it's both. It's and or. Yeah.
00:13:57
Speaker
I mean, this is like a little off time. you You see the movies that Netflix are making of like artificial intelligence. You're like, that's freaky. Yeah. Right. Right. Also too, like just, just very honestly, like uncommon wealth is looking at how can we utilize AI in order to be more efficient? I'll just say that. And we have found some tools that have been life giving, life giving to me.
00:14:22
Speaker
and we haven't implemented it over the whole practice yet, but there are some really- We've seen the potential. We've seen some potential that is actually really encouraging in
Cautious Optimism for 2025
00:14:33
Speaker
that you can grow a business without maybe hiring as fast as you maybe once would. So I'll just leave it at that. Yeah, which is a big deal because I mean, in any business, the biggest thing is always is like they always say like once you hire someone, you can grow tooth fulls, but you take a huge step backwards.
00:14:52
Speaker
It makes it a little more secure for business owners to be able to like get something going before they truly need to invest in hiring somebody. Now, on the flip side, we want to employ more people. We don't want to replace people with AI because I don't know how it works for that. right um yeah so Profitability can go up for business owners, which could I guess reflect maybe lower costs for consumers. I guess, you know, we shouldn yeah it could be, you never know, but it doesn't seem like that ever works that way. It just seems like people get greedier and greedier. But anyway, beside the point. So yeah are you ready? him like We have like opportunity sources in the U.S. large caps. I think that's still sort of strong. The economy still.
00:15:39
Speaker
doing good. I mean, we just had a rate cut. Yep. Then we're going to like one or two more next year is what they're predicting. The bond market's doing well. We have a new president, or we have a old president coming back in for a second term. Just predictable, right? So we've had him before. I know. So he's going to have a lot of change up. I mean, with RFK being in there. Yeah. The difference, though, is like he doesn't have another term to run. So like he could really go off the rails, or who knows? Or he could really do some good things. Well, also, he's having a
00:16:14
Speaker
you know Elon Musk in there, that's different. Yeah, that ah that is different. Yeah. So I i mean, i I think like i'm I'm approaching this next year with like optimism, but very like cautious optimism. Yeah. I think there's a lot of signals there that we'll have a positive year. ah But I just and do think that we have to be cautious going into this year just because all math is showing that like we just don't,
00:16:43
Speaker
It's so, so rare to knock it out of the park three times in a row. nice We're gonna have to have a correction at some point, because that's just healthy. yep like I know it's scary to have a correction, but please hear me, like it's healthy to have corrections. yep I still think we're gonna finish the year positive. i do I do think that, so. All right, hit me with your prediction, big dog. I wanna say. All right, wait, so we're we're using the number 58 or 5,842.
00:17:12
Speaker
1,842 yep, that's the number they we're going by like six and a quarter six. What's that come out to be? It's point five six point two five All right, let's do the math And get your calculators out everyone 58 42 times one point six two five. Oh shoot one point zero six two five six 6,207. All right. 6,207 point, basically 13. 13 cents. Okay. I think you're ready for this. I'm going to go big. I'm going to go 17.3%. Oh my gosh. All right. Yeah. Let's go pin your ears back and let's get nasty. Um, I like your prediction actually, um, as I hear your thoughts, but I also think AI is going to run pretty hard. I think,
00:18:09
Speaker
You know, there are some crazy trumpers out there that are so excited. And I've seen a switch in things that people are a little bit more loose with their money. They they feel like, at least the people that I'm kinda surrounded myself with, feel very optimistic about what's gonna happen the next four years. and And there's been a lot of conservativeness of like, I just wanna hold my money close to my vest. I feel like that's changed. And that's the reason why I think I'm gonna go a little bit higher.
00:18:37
Speaker
a little bit higher, like double digits higher. Um, so i dig yeah, my prediction is 6,852. Another thousand points. Um, we'll see. We'll see who's right.
Reflecting on 2024 and Preparing for 2025
00:18:50
Speaker
Um, again, lunch IO Aaron lunch. So maybe you want to, you want to vote it with him. Uh, you want to bet on him? I get it. Oh, this is good. This is like close. This is going to be like harder because it's a big gap this time. Yeah, I felt like last year I voted and or I cast my vote and then you were like a dollar higher, you know, like, oh, yeah. But it was wise. This year you went first. I'm going to go the opposite. I'm going to try to go a little higher. We'll see where it lands. But all I know is like, we're going to continue to doing the same things that we've done yesterday. And that feels that breeds confidence.
00:19:23
Speaker
And I want our clients to hear that. I want our listeners to hear that. It's like there's nothing really changing on our end. that We're trying to use AI, try to be more efficient. We're also thinking about how can we, we can have a bigger footprint so we can go meet new people and help them in an uncommon way. That has not served us wrong in the past. You're your best asset. We're just along for the ride. We get a really front row seat of all the things that you're doing. I love what we do. Every day I get to wake up, go hang out with some great people. and get to serve people in a way that I think God's asked me to serve people in this season with people that I love. Aaron, you're doing great. It's been fun to see you continue to chop wood, carry water. Hailey's been doing great just serving clients. Ashley was such a key component to the team.
00:20:11
Speaker
um And then, you know, 2025, we're excited to see what the op obstacles come our way, how we're going to overcome them. But I do feel like it's been a little bit easier if I think about where we're at today than 12 months ago. I feel like what we've done and the the base that we've laid has been helpful. It's been helpful and it's a little bit easier today than it was 12 months ago.
Conclusion and Encouragement to Live Uncommonly
00:20:34
Speaker
So there you go. There's our recap. 2024, everyone. du get it ah All right, anything else you want to add for 2025 or 2024? No, man, you said it all. So I second everything you said. I probably shouldn't have said it all with my voice, but here we are. No, it's good. It's good that crackly, like, serious voice to lead end into the year. I love it. Well, you've been listening to the Uncommon Wealth Podcast. Thank you so much for being a listener. I'm Phillip Ramsey. I'm Aaron Kramer. Until next time, go be in common. Thanks for listening.
00:21:19
Speaker
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