Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
GameStopE8: Yen carry trade, Market crash indicators & China
50 Plays3 months ago
Could there be a major macro event that impacts the global financial system? Who knows! Listen to Manny Cray try to make sense of it all with zero expertise on the subject.
Image Credit: Iuliia Duzhnikova
Recommended
Transcript
Chanting Discontent: Wall Street Frustrations
00:00:25
Manny Cray
pay meeee Wall Street pay meee fuck you Wall Street pay me Wall Street fuck you pay me God it's just so fun to say you should if you're driving alone alone in your car to say but fuck you Wall Street pay me Feels so good.
Holiday Reflections with Manny Cray
00:00:45
Manny Cray
Manny Cray, hello, it's been a while. ah Hope you enjoy all enjoyed your holidays. We have another holiday coming up. Depending on when you listen to this, it's coming up but New Year's Eve. We're gonna be celebrating tomorrow night. Right now it's the 30th of December. So, ah hello, hello, hello.
Podcasting as Personal Joy
00:01:02
Manny Cray
ah This has been fascinating. This entire journey has been fascinating for me. ah The podcast has been a tremendous outlet for me.
00:01:11
Manny Cray
I've decided, I mean, just thinking through some things. God, my mind is all over the place right now. But just thinking about like, true to myself, what do I wanna do? What brings me the most joy? And in a podcast format, I love it when I can just. I hope that translates. ah
00:01:32
Manny Cray
God, it just sounded so weird to me.
Unraveling GameStop: A Complex Research
00:01:35
Manny Cray
um Anyway, I like to just kind of hop on and speak to what I know and have a good time. And when it comes to GameStop, holy shit, I had no idea how much shit I would not have any idea about. And when i and when I'm trying to prep for some of this stuff,
00:01:53
Manny Cray
and do my research, and I'm onto one thing. I have one question, then I have to answer a billion other questions, and then I have this full-blown Reddit post that I'm getting ready to submit. It's just fascinating how deep, how deep, how deep, how deep all of this goes. And it's kind of, it goes against my initial plan. I just want to hop on and bullshit.
00:02:16
Manny Cray
and I love to bullshit. I still want to learn, I don't want to change that, and I'll still have similar episodes to what I have been having, but I want to get away from it.
Documenting History through GameStop
00:02:25
Manny Cray
And I'm at the point where there's a few other things I want to say. And I think this is one, and then I'd like to just do one, you know, call my bold prediction, uh, episode, and just talking through everything that I think has happened or could happen. And that's going to be complete bullshit and be disproven. I'm quite certain of it.
00:02:46
Manny Cray
um But after I get all this out of my system, I just want to go back to kind of the initial intention where we can kind of theorize on certain minuscule things, not full blown things. And I'm saying that because that's impossible. um But more so kind of like I want to document history. I feel like we're living history.
Evolving Podcast Style to Current Events
00:03:08
Manny Cray
Everything that's about to happen has happened um slash has happened with GameStop.
00:03:12
Manny Cray
I feel like his history in the making, everything Deep Fucking Value, Keith Gill, Ryan Kitty is doing his history in the making. Same with Ryan Cohen, of course. He has been making some incredible moves. ah I think he's been doing great. So I want to be, yeah, I just want to more document what's going on in the time, because I'm thinking about, God, if there was some idiot like me back in, you know, four years ago, 2020,
00:03:39
Manny Cray
kind of documenting what was going on in the time.
Encouraging Independent Thought
00:03:42
Manny Cray
I think it would just help me out so much more just to understand like sentiment and what was known at the time. Uh, so I kind of want to shift gears and go to that type of style of a podcast, easy listening, 20 minutes or less type of deal. So we'll see, we'll see once I'm going to just keep trying to dial in whatever works.
00:04:02
Manny Cray
So it might be a while, um but getting to it, getting to what I wanted to do in this episode. And I think, God, I talk about a lot of shit and I don't know fucking anything. So don't take my word for it. Do your own research. ah Fact check me. That last episode, I talked about some experiences and opinions there. So that's what they are. They're opinions, um not advice. Definitely fact checked everything I say.
00:04:28
Manny Cray
especially if you're going to tie your own investments to it. um So just that little disclaimer, I'm not an expert. I don't know what the hell I'm doing, but I love to to to look at this stuff, to research this stuff, to speculate on this stuff. That's the fun part. The fun part is speculation.
00:04:46
Manny Cray
Like, what's your hot take? What's your bull take? What the fuck's going on? we we We need answers. We all want answers to this. So I'm just having fun, um, speculating about all that. So this will be more speculation. Uh, one of the last things that I wanted to dive into before I next episode will be like similar to the style
The Yen Carry Trade and GameStop
00:05:03
Manny Cray
again. Um, but it, it's all about the in carry trick trade, unwind, um, market crash indicators. And then I want to have a little fun talking about, um, the China market.
00:05:16
Manny Cray
and why that's kind of tying into everything, and specifically Alibaba, because Ryan Cohen was invested there ah two years ago at this point, not sure if he still is, hundreds of millions of dollars apparently, huge investment. um were We're seeing Michael Burry do the same thing today, so it's it's not, just to kind of give you an idea why that's that's not random, and it also, I'm trying to understand if it ties into ah you know larger macro market indicators,
00:05:45
Manny Cray
Potential crashes or whatever. I'm just trying to understand why are these parties investing over there?
Simplifying Financial Complexities
00:05:50
Manny Cray
And how does it relate all to GameStop? It will always come back to GameStop. So don't worry about that But anyway, this is like I had some issues With my internet um You shouldn't by the way tip you should never pause after saying I had some issues especially when it's something as minor as with your internet. um So this is like my second or third take trying to go through all this. And I'm kind of glad that happened and they had to start over because I just got way too complicated. That would have been a terrible lesson. I'm glad I'm not doing that to you.
00:06:27
Manny Cray
And I'm just going to fucking simplify it. Cause ultimately what it boils down to is let's start with the end carry trade and not get super deep, just super dumb, super simple. And what was fascinating the first time we saw that unwind from the end carry trade, um, instantly on Reddit, people are like.
00:06:43
Manny Cray
deep fucking values a time traveler look at this meme and it was this meme that he posted
Memes and Market Insights
00:06:47
Manny Cray
back in May or June of Jim Carrey from the movie me myself and Irene where he's having a breakdown and a mental breakdown he's going to become his alter ego this other personas other personality And while that's happening, overlaying on that scene in that movie, we're seeing ah like market crash signal, like red candlesticks everywhere, like stocks plummeting. And it's he was having this episode while that's happening. And the connection, which I think is very sound, was the yin carry trade unwind, Jim Carrey.
00:07:22
Manny Cray
with all the stocks plummeting, yen carry trade unwind. And we saw the yen carry trade unwind earlier in the year, not earlier in the year, but like a few months ago at this point. i Again, I'm just trying to get going. and So some of these details
Strategic Financial Speculations
00:07:37
Manny Cray
you'll have to fact check me on, but I think it was at this point, like four months ago, where there was some unwinding and we saw bloop.
00:07:44
Manny Cray
Markets had a ah brief pullback, and it was very brief. It was like a day or two days, and I think GameStop went down like 10%. So pretty significant pullback, but many experts are saying, hey, hey, it's not fully unwound yet. So that should be very interesting to us all um if you have any investments, because we saw a little precursor there, um a harbinger of what's to come.
00:08:07
Manny Cray
So if that had that big of an impact one day, and if it wasn't that huge of an impact as quickly recover and rebound, um, above and beyond where it did pull back, I guess larger market markets, not just game stop.
00:08:20
Manny Cray
Maybe it's not that big of a concern. It just signals another opportunity. And I think that's what deep fucking value is doing when, when we see, um, you know, potentially other stocks. Uh, I know there's some theories on like serious, uh, serious stock. And then I, like I've said with Alibaba, I don't think it necessarily means there's going to be investments over there.
00:08:43
Manny Cray
or he's gonna invest over there or whatever. I just think it means he's looking for all these indicators to determine his next move. So with ah Syria, it could have been as easy as, um you know, Warren Buffett's involvement there and waiting for that move to take place. And I know the the split for, or the merger, whatever it was. What was it? I can't remember. Anyway, it was a split. Yeah, the split.
00:09:07
Manny Cray
was announced back in December, a year ago from now. um So he would, he knew the split was, we all knew the split was coming back in December of 2023. And it didn't take place until like, what, like May or June or something. So it was like another indicator, something he was looking forward. And we, I mean, as of now, we haven't seen him invest
Market Dynamics and Risks: A Deep Dive
00:09:27
Manny Cray
over there at all. And I think a lot of theories were built around that.
00:09:29
Manny Cray
Anyway, all I'm saying is when we see clues like that in these memes, I think it always comes back to GameStop, but we're looking for certain events or indicators to go on to the next chapter in the story ah where DFE might be making his next move or next investment or whatever as it relates to GameStop. He has a plan, obviously.
00:09:49
Manny Cray
And it's all because of everything else we've talked about and have researched and have seen in DD and countless other posts online is um you know There's a lot of levers that very powerful entities can pull to delay ah covering on their short positions and what other whatever else positions. But anyway, now let me come back to the end carry trade. So we we saw that flash. So is that indicator, that signal that deep fucking value was looking for as he was communicating in that mean until proven otherwise, right? We'll just say that's the leading
00:10:28
Manny Cray
Uh, theory with that one. And it makes a lot of sense. And I think a lot of people there were, when that came out, other people were like, yeah, these other posts were indicating this was going to happen too. So it's not necessarily time travel situation. People always say deep fucking values of time traveler. And I think people can become time travelers with calls like this.
00:10:47
Manny Cray
when they're very savvy investors with hundreds of millions of dollars and access to other data terminals that are very expensive um to to have access to. So yeah like Bloomberg terminals, for example, like 20 grand just to have access to one of those.
00:11:03
Manny Cray
So there's a bunch of data and information. And if you understand how it all correlates and understand the broader ah markets, global markets, you're going to be able to make some very savvy investment decisions and you will be able to predict the future of what's to come based on what the data is telling you. So I trust people like.
00:11:27
Manny Cray
DFV, like Ryan Cohen, who I think have shown a track record of um investments like that and the track record of trying to help out retail with what they're seeing in very cryptic ways, which will never really be proven. And we'll continue to have millions of theories built off of.
00:11:46
Manny Cray
But, but, that's all I'm saying. he's like He's seeing data somewhere. He understand the markets.
Unwinding Yen Carry Trade Impacts
00:11:52
Manny Cray
He's a deep fucking value investor. And I think a lot of those memes relate to that. So that's the yin carry trade. A lot of experts, if you depending on where you get your sources, you can Google it right now. It's the yin carry trade, fully unwound. And you'll read a bunch of articles about how most experts don't think it is.
00:12:10
Manny Cray
And how big of an impact is it really? And I guess we'll start with what the hell is he in carry trade. And it's very simple. Uh, Japan has had historically low interest rates. So it practically costs nothing to borrow a bunch of money from Japan. So if you are a, uh, you know, group that wants to borrow a bunch of money.
00:12:32
Manny Cray
um for free, essentially, and then reinvest it in other markets that have a higher return, it's free money. that's That's exactly what's going on. So how much money has been borrowed? Did somebody ask that? I thought I heard that. um Well, my notes say at the peak over, uh, half a trillion dollars. So a shit ton of money, half a trillion. Um, so we're talking over $500 billion, uh, uh, borrowed from bank of Japan and cost them nothing to borrow. And then it's being reinvested or not reinvest being invested elsewhere in other markets that have a higher return. So again, just free money. So this has to unwind when the Japan interest rate increases.
00:13:17
Manny Cray
or when the US interest rates decrease, because if the high interest rate in America is decreasing, if that's where money that's being borrowed is being invested in, and certain assets assets that have a return based on that interest rate, that changes things.
00:13:36
Manny Cray
Your return is just not going to be the same. I think you kind of get it. So if your return is less from the money borrowed and if the money borrowed costs more to borrow, you're going to have to change your strategy a little bit.
00:13:49
Manny Cray
So that's why there's an unwinding, so to speak. So that had a big impact. um Could be, I think what I've read, it could be halfway unwound. So another half to go, could only be like 25% unwound, have like a much bigger splash. um But I guess we'll say a few things. if If this hasn't fully unwound yet, we can expect more events. And is it gonna be the same thing? Or is it just gonna be a bloop?
00:14:15
Manny Cray
10% down quick recovery, like nothing happened a few days later. Um, maybe that was the warning and parties will start to slowly exit. And maybe it's been a gradual process since then. And maybe that's why, I mean, the Japanese government came together. I'm not sure what their government agency is called, but they decided not to increase interest rates. So we did not see another panic in the stock markets because of it.
00:14:41
Manny Cray
So maybe that was strategic. Maybe that was like, hey, this is your last call. We're eventually going to have to raise interest rates in Japan. So continue to exit your ah positions, pay back your your loans from Bank of Japan, whatever.
00:14:57
Manny Cray
um So something to look for, and again, I'll think about it the way I think deep fucking value has been thinking about it. Think of it as an indicator, an opportunity, ah the next chapter in this this journey, whatever the hell you want to call it.
GameStop and Market Crash Indicators
00:15:11
Manny Cray
It's just a milestone. It's a milestone.
00:15:15
Manny Cray
So we might see another milestone in the form of a yen carry trade unwind being fully unwound. And I think the next time, um, Japan gets together to determine if an interest rate increase makes sense would be in March. Um, so something to look forward to and something to try to prepare for depending we, I mean, nobody can predict the outcome of that, but that's what we're looking at here and.
00:15:39
Manny Cray
As it relates to GameStop, I mean, we know how aggressive deep fucking value is. So if there is a buying opportunity, I don't doubt he's pouncing on it. Um, so who knows, or maybe, maybe it's unrelated to that. If there, if this unwinding forces parties to pull investments in the United States or wherever else, other, um, equities.
00:16:02
Manny Cray
maybe it forces positions to be closed on GameStop and increasing that, or forcing leverage on GameStop. Maybe it's a better opportunity in the eyes of um you know market makers, institutions, whatever. we We're seeing institutions pick up a ton of shares.
00:16:18
Manny Cray
So maybe that's the the relationship there. um But something to expand on, something to look further into. I just think there's there's a lot of theories we could spin out on this one. And um what it boils down to is this unwinding is happening, and it could continue to happen. So depending on how DFV sees this impacting GameStop, that's um You know, a couple of theories to to make out of that. Will it create a buying opportunity or will it make a game stop just keep going up, just up? Who knows? Because these parties have to close elsewhere. Like I just said, now I'm just repeating myself anyway, just wanted to make sure that was clear. So that's that's the end carry. That's the first part of this episode. The second part is, you know, I want to look at market crash indicators because some of these theories that we're seeing
00:17:07
Manny Cray
I think kind of stem from, um you know, the the emoji timeline in one of Deep Fucking Values meme videos, where the second to last emoji is a crash emoji, or it could be a pop explosive and emoji. So there's some theories about a potential market crash. And even if these theories, what's funny about this, I was talking to a friend um What's funny about these theories and what I'm gonna share, and I'm just gonna keep the super high
Derivatives Market Patterns and Risks
00:17:36
Manny Cray
level. I tried to explain this in my first take and it was just mad. It was terrible. I'm not the right person to be explaining any of this. um But I shared some of these insights in a group text with some friends. And one of my buddies,
00:17:52
Manny Cray
Uh, has, I think he's invested really well this year, but he said, his response made me laugh. He said. Bears sound smart, bulls make money. Something along those lines where it's like, Jesus. And he's kind of right because when you think about, I guess, if you're if you're looking at potential indicators for a market crash and his point was kind of the upcoming administration, um all of their success hinges on the success of the stock market.
00:18:23
Manny Cray
Um, so his points essentially, you know, these very powerful, uh, groups with essentially unlimited resources can write the script. So that could be true, regardless of what the indicators flashing are saying. So who knows? There's a case on both sides, just kind of like I said in the bear case, defend the bear thesis episode. Um, so yeah, nobody, nothing's.
00:18:49
Manny Cray
100% certain um and you just have to navigate through all that uncertainty with all the information that's available to you, the average retail investor, because we don't have access to all the data and information that wealthy parties have access to. But I like to like that some of those parties that do have access to that are kind of looking out for us in the form of deep fucking value. um That's my thought at least.
00:19:14
Manny Cray
So God, that was a long tangent. So essentially, and I'll i'll give some credit, but I'm not going to quote you always sad, but truthful. But conversation with, um, at it's always rains, uh, uh, on a few episodes ago, he is posting some very, very fascinating stuff about swaps.
00:19:36
Manny Cray
And some of his findings and this is all very loose, loose information that he's pulling together and he's still trying to confirm it. So if you want to follow him on his journey, just check out his Twitter feeds. Fascinating. But essentially what he is seeing is the derivatives market is showing signs of troubling patterns that are reminiscent of the 2008 housing bubble market crash.
00:20:03
Manny Cray
So the key concern here is there's a correlation between equity swaps and credit derivatives. And as credit derivatives have decreased equity equity swaps have surged, which suggests that credit risk is being repackaged into equity linked instruments.
00:20:20
Manny Cray
um And since the pandemic really, um you know, early 2020, both these, the credit derivatives and the equity swaps have grown significantly, um which raises that alarm about amplified risk exposure.
00:20:39
Manny Cray
So some of the stuff, when you look at, um just trying to read these notes, I have notes all over the fucking place from this episode because this is everything is just so complicated and complex. ah So the FX swaps and the interest rate swaps are growing in tandem, which could also indicate an increased reliance on derivative hedges that could unravel with market stress.
00:21:02
Manny Cray
And the overall notational value of US forwards and swaps mirrors trends from before 2008, which suggests hidden leverage and fragile interconnections. So if these patterns persist, the scale and complexity of today's derivatives market could lead to financial fallout greater than 2008. Not to scare anybody, but potentially if this is if this information is confirmed and validated. And again, if um the the indicators could flash all they want. but Um, you know, people can write a different script if they have unlimited resources to do so. So who knows? Uh, so yeah, with those amplified risks, uh, spilling over from equity and credit markets into broader financial systems, um, just something to keep an eye on and something to double check and validate for yourself. So potentially something there again, I, I just like to, I don't know. I like to, uh,
00:21:57
Manny Cray
I like to listen to some of some of these theories that I think it can be very important. I think mostly for me, if I'm hearing stuff like that, I think you can hear stuff like this in any market and people could be early to it. ah Just like Michael Berry was two years early to you know his short on mortgage backed securities. And he was paying premiums on that short for two years before it finally paid off. He was right, he was just really early. So that could be the situation here as well. Who knows how long things can play out. I think everything is cyclical when it comes to ah the economy. So eventually we'll see something.
00:22:34
Manny Cray
But timing is almost impossible, impossible to predict.
China Investments and Global Dynamics
00:22:38
Manny Cray
But something them put on your radar could be another indicator as it relates to the GameStop story here. So that's why I want to touch on that. But yeah, obviously,
00:22:48
Manny Cray
um Macro market market trends definitely influence ah those macro events influence GME. That's for sure. So we'll see. And it could be for the better or worse ah for, you know, good or bad. If if these parties with the, you know, if the short position isn't truly represented on GameStop and if they have to officially close those positions because they have to close other positions,
00:23:18
Manny Cray
Then it could lead to something different, you know, so just something to keep an eye on. I like to be risk adverse. I'm not going to offer any advice, but I just either way, I want a little bit of exposure that I'm not stressed out about just to say I can be part of the ride. And I just love what's going on here. Cause ultimately, ultimately I just think.
00:23:38
Manny Cray
this All this work, all the people invested in GameStop, everything ah Deep Fucking Valley, Keith Gilles, and Ryan Cohen are doing, I think is to just beat the opposition. All these tools have been used um for their benefit in kind of sour ways, not necessarily illegal ways yet.
00:23:59
Manny Cray
um But there's there's there's definitely a lot of exposure to this, and everything that's happening here is just kind of beating them at their own game. So I think that exposing some of those acts to manipulate share price and essentially steal money from the common folk, the good people, I think it's good that that's being uncovered.
00:24:21
Manny Cray
So it could be when you think about some of this stuff, I know there's some other theories about crypto, ah which Bitcoin just had a crazy bull run. And there's some thoughts there that that could have been used as leverage. And we're seeing some big ah steps back with Bitcoin, you know, some big pullbacks just kind of for no reason, but it's still doing very well. So it could flash as an indicator that's being used as leverage.
00:24:49
Manny Cray
And I think ultimately myself included, I view Bitcoin crypto kind of as a safe haven from ah these macro events, but that's been kind of been proven in history that Bitcoin does correlate ah with economic downturn or upturn.
00:25:04
Manny Cray
So think eventually if this does, if this happens, it could impact crypto, but I think it ultimately will always be be viewed as a safe haven. So I could see it correlating. I don't know why I'm theorizing on Bitcoin right now, but anyway, it could create some sort of opportunity over there and recovery. That's just my thought. So yin carry trade market crash indicators.
00:25:28
Manny Cray
Good enough, good enough, something to think about. I don't want to go get too deep like I tried to on that first take because it was maddening. But a lot to look into if you're super curious, that can keep you very busy.
00:25:39
Manny Cray
Now, what I think is interesting is you know as we look at some of these indicators um of a potential ah you know ah guess ah rebalancing, what's the right word? ah if If the theories are correct and that the US stock exchange is um you know, overvalued and it needs a correction, you know, why are certain parties investing in China? Um, so I could see how this could be related as we think of, uh, uh, these macro events and where you're investing your dollars. Why are certain people, parties investing in China with all this information? And I think some of it is, um,
00:26:23
Manny Cray
Or I guess where my fascination starts. It's just really this whole story when we think about, uh, uh, you know, Keith Gill was invested in GameStop. Um, and he was a nobody. And then you had somebody like Michael Bury who invested and known for the big shore. We talk about him a lot.
00:26:40
Manny Cray
on this podcast, but obviously he took advantage of the 2008 bubble and there's theories about another bubble. And where's Michael Burry invested?
Alibaba and GameStop: Strategic Ties
00:26:50
Manny Cray
He's invested in China stocks and his largest position currently is Alibaba.
00:26:55
Manny Cray
I'll have to double check. The last I checked like a month ago, it still was. um Ryan Cohen has invested in Alibaba. So you have Ryan Cohen investing hundreds of millions in Alibaba in a like two years ago. So I had no reports on whether he closed that position, but that is his own personal investment.
00:27:12
Manny Cray
And then you have um obviously Ryan Cohen and Michael Burry were invested in GameStop four years ago, almost four years ago today, ah Michael Burry exited his GameStop position and Ryan Cohen increased his. So they went opposite directions there. And then of course we know the story after that, just we're about a month away from the historic four-year anniversary of that major squeeze.
00:27:37
Manny Cray
So they have both invested in GameStop, they have both invested in Alibaba. So I think that's interesting, very interesting to me. Confirmed Michael Burry opening that position this year, and who knows what his play is. And again, thinking of an indicator, I saw some hints of Baba and DeepFuckingValue memes. So that's why I'm tying, this has connections to Cohen, Burry, GameStop, DeepFuckingValue.
00:28:02
Manny Cray
Um, so if you, I guess the two compelling clues of Alibaba, and then I'll get into, we'll get into kind of the why potential why of China investment, but just starting with some, uh, deep fucking value clues that I saw. So I guess for me it was, there was a meme or no, the the thumbnail from his latest live stream. Uh, there was one image.
00:28:27
Manny Cray
of a quote. It says, the longer you ignore me, the stronger I get or something like that. And it's a quote from the movie, the Babadook. So all the Baba's ticker is Baba. So I'm like, huh, okay. Okay. That could be Baba. And then of course I'm looking at some other clues.
00:28:44
Manny Cray
thinking about it this way. And there is a meme. I think it was Clive Owen. I think that's his name. But he starts this video by saying pay attention very closely to what I have to say. And then it cuts to a cat peering over a fence. The song plays. It's called like Chaya Chaya or something. But it's written by um the mystic poet. He's a poet from like India. His name is Bolay Shah and his nickname is Baba. Can't make this up. I mean, that seems like too much to be a lucky coincidence.
00:29:15
Manny Cray
um But I mean, I have some other ones. Some of these other ones might be a little nuts, but there was, this was interesting because when I was going down this path, this is, I saw some of these Baba clues and deep fucking value means when I first started getting interested in the story. And this all led from me discovering that Cohen invested in Baba. So I was trying to find connections with all of his investments in these memes, just to see what the hell is going on.
00:29:41
Manny Cray
But there was a a Mountain Dew Code Red meme um that scene with Tom Cruise and Jack ah Nicholson, right? Yeah. um Where it's like, you can't handle the truth.
Motivations Behind China Investments
00:29:53
Manny Cray
But there's reference to Mountain Dew Code Red. Like, there's a Code Red.
00:29:57
Manny Cray
and um somebody was saying the the Mountain Dew Code Red linked to a computer worm that hacked, attacked computers back in 2001. And it was this famous Code Red computer worm. And I can't remember why they connected this to that meme, but I found that it originated in in Guangdong, China. That's where this Code Red computer worm originated.
00:30:21
Manny Cray
And Guangdong China, I don't know if I'm saying that right, is part of mainland China. And I thought those worms, and I think that's where it was, so so those worms, and then he had another meme video of dune and these massive sound sandworms in dune. So I looked up the the meaning of these sandworms in dune, and they were they were to protect a treasured resource called the spice melange.
00:30:46
Manny Cray
So they had to get past these dune sandworms to get to that resource, right? So I think of this connection with Baba to me is this if this worm originated in mainland China, um Baba was looking to to ah have investors in mainland china China invest in Alibaba via Stock Connect, which something that's something that i passed in September.
00:31:11
Manny Cray
So I just thought that was interesting. Anyway, this could all just be an indicator because this stuff happened and it could have already played out. And Bobby but went on a great run. It went from like 70 bucks to like 150, 15 bucks. So maybe the indicator that play is done. But when I look at Michael Burry is still invested, um why is he invested in in Alibaba? Could it be because of some of these other indicators?
00:31:37
Manny Cray
And this one gets really deep and I'm not sure how close I am to understanding the appeal for China if there's a potential market collapse or if that's even the play. I mean, Baba has been known as for a long time as a value play or a value trap, depending on which side you want to you want to speak to.
00:31:55
Manny Cray
Um, but I guess the thought here just based on stuff I was searching is they might, China might have more proactive measures. So everyone's waiting on this huge stimulus stimulus from China. So I think that's the play there. They're hoping it happens.
00:32:09
Manny Cray
And if these indicators keep flashing, um, China is is still recovering from their last economic collapse. That's a whole nother episode. think right around the 2008 collapse. Anyway, they might be more aggressive.
00:32:24
Manny Cray
to have a cushion and everything I'm reading here just based on their financial system. Um, the impact on the China economy, if there is a macro event, it will happen more slowly than it will happen in the U S. So I'm generalizing at this point, there's a shit ton of notes here. I just, I can't talk about this for another hour. I apologize.
00:32:48
Manny Cray
um But I think it's very fascinating. So there's a lot, there's a loose thread there, something you can pull on, do some more research if you want to understand ah if these ah market and the crash indicators are real. um If they they signal a potential play in a China stock, is that what these other, Michael Burry, David Tepper, other billionaires are seeing by investing in Alibaba?
00:33:14
Manny Cray
I guess Murray's not a billionaire sucker, um but Tepper is. And
Future Podcast Directions
00:33:19
Manny Cray
I don't know. I just think it's it's interesting. And either. Yeah, either they're right or either they're wrong. Either, you know, either way, it seems like it's.
00:33:29
Manny Cray
It's undervalued. Um, so who knows? It just seems like, I just think those connections are very interesting as we look at the in carry trade on mind, as we look at, uh, potential market crash indicators, um, the overlap with Michael burry, Ryan Cohen, um, do fucking value game stop and Alibaba. I just think it's interesting, something I'm keeping one eye on. So.
00:33:53
Manny Cray
There you have it. That's what I really want to cover and get out of my system on this one. Trust me, I could have broken this out into three different episodes and gone super deep and maybe I'll want to at some point, but I just want to get that out. um Again, I'm going to shift gears. I'm going to do one more kind of deeper episode where I want to call my my shots and my bold predictions. And after a six, seven month journey of looking into the stuff, what, so what, you know, what are we going to do about it? That's what my wife always asks me. What do you think is happening and what can we do about it?
00:34:23
Manny Cray
And ultimately I just like GameStop. I think it's, um, could be a great investment. So maybe I'm right. Uh, maybe we're all right, I guess is what I'll say. Cause I think we're all very convinced at this point, but I'll just go into some of those hot takes on what I think is happening. And then I'll dial in and try to figure out like a better way to do these episodes in a way that's.
00:34:44
Manny Cray
makes sense with my schedule and jives with my personality where I just want to, I just want to hop on and bullshit and talk about what's going on.
Final Thoughts and Listener Appreciation
00:34:51
Manny Cray
Um, and that'll lead to some deep conversations, but ultimately I just want to keep the fresh perspective and document, um, the time in history that we're all living through.
00:35:03
Manny Cray
So that's all I got for you on this one. I hope there was some value there. If you want to go deeper, if you have any other questions, I can share some other notes on the X at Manicray. Just give me a shout out. But otherwise, thank you all so much. Enjoy your new year and get fucked to Wall Street. Pay me. Bye.