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WCAD 4-28: Beccacece's Ecuador Takes the Leap
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Austin and Amit get together to break down Ecuador's World Cup-saving 2-1 win over Germany, Paraguay and Australia's un-surprising 0-0 draw, and all the rest of the action from Thursday at the World Cup, including a 3-2 loss for the US against Turkey. Plus, an updated look at the 3rd Place table, and early thoughts on the quickly-developing Quadrant of Death
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Transcript
World Cup Surprises: Ecuador vs. Germany
00:00:01
Speaker
So the best thing about this final match day of the World Cup group stage is you don't really know what to expect, right? And you have these results and you map out all of these paths and you say, oh this will happen. Ah, that won't happen.
00:00:16
Speaker
And the next thing you know, all the things that you say won't happen are starting to happen. And I mean, it's very unpredictable and it circles back to a point that we've made that being the bubble team on the third place table and waiting all of this out is not a fun spot to be because things like Ecuador beating Germany start to happen. Sweden hang on against Japan for a point and all of a sudden your opportunities get smaller and smaller.
00:00:42
Speaker
I think a theme of of this podcast is have a guy. And part of the guy's work is not just on the third place day, right? Part of the work is thinking about this holistically. And if you're first, you've got to be more aggressive because of the uncertainty. And we've seen this in all of the third place tournaments we've kind of gone to to work with over the the past few years.
00:01:03
Speaker
And now these two teams from day one are feeling really, really dicey. One of them is feeling pretty done. So... Yeah, I mean, we can't emphasize it enough. The the results today were exciting, shocking a little bit in in ways we're going to talk about. And that makes this very interesting.
Podcast Introduction and Key Matches Review
00:01:21
Speaker
This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. My name is Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik. On today's show, we're going to talk about Ecuador's big win against Germany that saves their World Cup and puts a couple of other World Cups in jeopardy. We'll also talk the U.S. s losing their first for the first time at this World Cup in a bonkers 3-2 game against Turkey that meant nothing but also maybe meant everything. We'll break down the nail draw between Paraguay and Australia and all of the rest of the action from Thursday. But a bit I think we have to start with Ecuador because this was a team that they draw nil nil against Curacao. No goal scored in their first two World Cup games.
00:01:57
Speaker
They come into a game with powerful Germany needing to win to have any chance of getting out of this group. It looked like it was long odds and they took those long odds and they shredded them and they won to one.
00:02:10
Speaker
This was a very impressive performance because for Ecuador, they didn't really have this gear to rev up their inch engine as high as you want to generate all the chances that they want. And so this was just a tough ask, especially because they they go in down early.
00:02:24
Speaker
They get it back. But the way they did it was very Ecuador. They didn't panic. They just kind of cranked it up dial by dial, notch by notch. They didn't overcommit.
00:02:34
Speaker
And I thought the last...
Ecuador's Tactical Brilliance Against Germany
00:02:36
Speaker
what, 20 minutes of this game where they eventually get the goal and see it out is just the way they've done it so far. Their way of creating chances, a bit of brute force. It's not pretty. And that was one thing we were worried about for Ecuador and the Conrad Bowl teams. But sometimes when you're back a Sessa, you can have your cake and eat it too. It all worked out just fine. Don't worry.
00:02:57
Speaker
They stuck to who they were, right? And they they had a big mentality game here because you mentioned it. We thought that this was going to be hard for Ecuador. if They then made it even harder because they conceded a goal in the first two minutes of this game. Leroy Sanรฉ had been listening to all the criticism. Ah, he's old.
00:03:13
Speaker
He's slow. He's not really involved in play. Well, for the first two minutes of the game, he was involved in the play because he had a great first touch shot after Pavlovich put the ball over the head of Vite, passed to Florian Wurz, quickly to Sanรฉ, left foot fire, and two minutes in, Germany's up one. Nagelsmann, who hasn't rotated, he's played his guy, got the dream start, and Ecuador are thinking, how could this World Cup go any more wrong than what it has already?
00:03:38
Speaker
The team that really, really just doesn't want to be down one nightmare start. Look, Sanรฉ has been... poor but the left foot is quality and that's why he's on that right side to get this kind of shot it's it's it's a good finish I think I guess Nagelsmann's rewarded for he needs someone on his front line to score and sometimes it's your right winger turned hitman It's interesting because Nagelsmann chose to play his guys here. By the end of this game, he rotates in the rest of the attacking
Strategic Debates: Germany vs. USA
00:04:06
Speaker
players. We'll get to that in a minute. What did you think of the decision for Nagelsmann to not rotate here? Is it just simply stubborn Julian Nagelsmann? I'm going to do it my way. I'm going to play my guys. Damn the results.
00:04:17
Speaker
yeah It's interesting because i think the United States game is the opposite, right? Fully rotated. and i was I think we're going to talk about it then. we'll talk about it now. There's no right or wrong way, right? The argument one is rhythm, rotation.
00:04:31
Speaker
i want my guys to get chemistry, especially the international level. We don't play together that often. Option two is rest, analytics, running. Less legs now, more legs later. And so like my brain obviously goes to, I think you should take the rest advantage. You earned it. You you played really well.
00:04:48
Speaker
But there's something about the international game that's different, right? It's not a spreadsheet game. The chemistry matters. And I do think for Nagelsmann, the loss is frustrating for their momentum.
00:05:00
Speaker
But he learned a lot about his team. They got a lot of high-level experience against a good Ecuador team. I don't think that's a bad thing. novelsman is If you were guessing the types of managers to go which way, Knucklesman is 100% the type of manager that would do this. Pochettino, who is like every practice getting more and more casual in his vibes the United States, just enjoying the role, is like, yeah, guys, let's rest. we They had an off day like for for Father's Day like of the day after. like everything is great over there. And Nagelsmann is just like, this is about intensity. So he checks out and like, listen, did anyone in the Germany camp, as soon as he was appointed, think he was not going to do this? Like, it's just kind of his vibe. And so,
00:05:45
Speaker
we won't know until after and then we'll make the narrative whichever way we want to. Right. They win. You go, Oh, it's because they had the rhythm. They lose. Ah, you put too much legs. And like, that's exactly what we're going to do So that's how this goes. But, but I think it is interesting. You play your guys and you think that it's maybe in terms of rhythm and then you lose and it's like, Oh, that didn't work. And I think the moment of this game, Amit is, is not,
00:06:10
Speaker
the 2-1 for Ecuador. It's not the goal where they finally get ahead. It's the response that they have to Germany going ahead early because Ecuador was in desperate need of a moment. And they spent 90 minutes against Curacao looking for that moment. They spent 90 minutes against Ivory Coast looking for that moment.
00:06:27
Speaker
They didn't find it either of those games. They're down one to Germany. Their World Cup campaign is hanging on the precipice. And they finally get that moment. Ordonia steps up in the midfield from his center back position, wins a ball.
00:06:39
Speaker
It gets to Pedro Avite. He finds Nilsson N'Gulo. And Nilsson N'Gulo just cuts right and shoots. And he puts it into the back of the net. And it was the moment that Ecuador needed because they created so many chances and hadn't converted.
00:06:51
Speaker
They just needed a guy to score. It's an oversimplication, but they needed a guy to score and they got a guy to score. Obersimplified, and let's talk about it too, it's lock, right? Two games of banging on the door, close range, long range, and then this time your shot from distance is the perfect shot from distance, and the keeper is just screened enough here, right? Like, it's both. But I think to your point, like,
00:07:16
Speaker
The quality from Angulo just to take it and to try it because someone on this front line, it's not necessarily the the top levels of of the other front lines and how desperate how desperately they need this. um Do you think Neuer should be doing better here on this one? It's a tough one because the shot is immediately through the legs. To me, that's the biggest luck component. If you take this shot without the defender in the way, he's probably saving it.
00:07:40
Speaker
Yeah, I think Manuel Neuer hasn't really covered himself very well in this tournament, right? Like, I think he's kind of at fault on the Curacao goal. He's got some moments where he hasn't been great. I don't think he's good on this goal.
00:07:51
Speaker
He's not great on the second goal. Like, the whole Manuel Neuer is back, the goal is safe narrative, I think is maybe the most concerning one for Germany because he hasn't been all that good.
00:08:03
Speaker
He hasn't. And i think you want him to play a high volume shot stopping game, right? Where his pure shot stopping comes through. But when you're just kind of playing these, not normal
Ecuador's Winning Strategy
00:08:16
Speaker
games, but like, this is not ah a high volume first half. He just makes a mistake on the big chance. And now it's looking optically like he's, he's less and less reliable. And,
00:08:28
Speaker
and I think the two goalkeepers behind him may be less good shots offers. Who's to say it's hard to evaluate, but I don't think they're going to be as um up and down as Neuer. Is that, is that really what Nagelsmann wants? He, he so chose Neuer. He got him out of retirement for this.
00:08:44
Speaker
This was Oliver Baumann's net, right? Like that was the expectation is he's going to be the goalkeeper. Manuel Nuer is done. And then in May, he just comes out and says, I'm back. And obviously he's not coming back to be the reserve, right? Like he's not coming back and into this to to play backup. So I think that's another really interesting subplot with this Germany team. After the Ecuador goal, I think they had their best moment of the match, at least in the first half. It gets obviously cut by the water break.
00:09:07
Speaker
They're in this game. They're kind of slowly but surely tightening the screws. But I think crucially for Ecuador, I mean, they don't overcommit and just flood forward. We got to score. We got to chase it. They kind of wait to do that. And I think that helps them find a foothold here and really limit Germany, who were pretty toothless coming back the other way.
00:09:26
Speaker
Yeah, this is well managed. This is threading the needle from Becca Sese. This is you know, it's careful. You could get got playing this, but I think you just kind of read the energy flow of this game that this is a lull. We can kind of get away with not overcomplicating it.
00:09:43
Speaker
You have to pick in all of these situations where we say some team at some point has to go for it. They have to show me something. You have to play your best football. And even then, you really are aiming for 15 or 20 minutes where you don't have to live with risk outside of that. I thought be i mean, this is like this is textbook common ball stuff, too. Like Becca Sesse knows this exactly.
00:10:05
Speaker
It's careful to say, is it good or not? Because it it works, right? But I do think against Germany, like the answer was to frustrate, frustrate, frustrate as much as possible.
00:10:15
Speaker
You can tell they're very clearly going at Joshua Kimmich, right? Like that's the idea of what they're trying to do. That's something we've seen repeatedly with Germany. They're very clearly trying to control the midfield. Caissero and Vite are great in the midfield for Ecuador. They win a lot of balls back. that They help key a lot of plays. And finally, in the second half, as this gets towards the hour mark, Beca Sesse makes his change, right?
00:10:34
Speaker
So he brings on Kevin Rodriguez. And interestingly, he takes... off and everyone says he doesn't try to go with two nines he puts Rodriguez into a more nine role brings on Angelo Preciado for Alan Franco that's a much more attacking fullback that is again another player they're trying to get forward and that's where the success comes from Ecuador then they bring on purpose at stupid young for Piero in cafe the same like type of deal we're bringing on a more attacking fullback option to just flood more numbers forward and that he's them starting to get the flow going. There's an insane sequence in the 73rd minute where again, Manuel Neuer, not covering himself in glory, goes for a walk off his line as he is wont to do.
00:11:11
Speaker
Ecuador nearly take advantage of this situation. And this emit kind of starts this momentum string for Ecuador where a couple minutes later, There's this crazy block on Rodriguez, who it looks like has a great opportunity. He's in a great position. The shot gets blocked out of play, but on the ensuing corner, there comes the goal for Ecuador. And it's Gonzalo Plata who gets it, who I thought was also really good in this game. I thought the kind of midfield forward players for Ecuador were better than they have been. Valencia wasn't great, but I thought Rodriguez came in and made a real impact. So the corner is taken and it's a first post flicked on header from Kevin Rodriguez and plots is able to beat Manuel Neuer to this ball. And I think this is interesting because it's yet again, Neuer's kind of playing this passively, which is not something you would expect from him, but the flicked on header comes and Neuer's kind of just waiting for it.
00:12:00
Speaker
And it's and it's ah Plata who's able to get his foot across to it and just poke it past Neuer before the ball gets to Neuer. And it feels like this is a situation where if he plays this more aggressively, he comes out to play this ball, he's probably getting clattered into it. He's probably winning a foul and this isn't in the back of his net.
00:12:19
Speaker
That's fair. I think um it's tough to react as just because of the flick. And that's where the Kevin Rodriguez's flick just roots him because maybe he's thinking that header comes off and I've got to protect the post. And he's stuck between covering his line, covering his post versus getting out to the obvious danger. It's fast, right? It happens instantaneous.
00:12:41
Speaker
Look, like... This little flick from Kevin Riguez and the little foot from Plata is everything. That's the whole tournament right there for Ecuador in one play. And the margins are so fine. um Look, Ecuador set pieces is also something they've needed to get something on to this whole tournament for a team that struggles to create an open play.
00:13:00
Speaker
This was very, very cathartic in the way it happened. And the the last point, just back to the Neuer Ecuador set piece thing, like this is a good bit of... meatballing, getting guys in the box, like yeah very analytical, make it very tough on the goalkeeper, make the goalkeeper look like he's too passive. i think that's fair analysis. It is. like He was in a tough spot. um so This is kind of when we're saying Ecuador did it their way. like this was the This was their best way to generate that highest, highest value of chance. That plot of chance is close range. It's amazing. and
00:13:33
Speaker
Just echo your point, like Yes, the Ener Valencia attacking has been poor for Ecuador, but the depth here shows up, right? Both fullbacks, both like, you know, the second striker, you know, getting the also two wingers like Preciado and Angulo. Like everyone does their part to step up. This is the best game they've played. And look, it's not like the pretty...
00:13:58
Speaker
overload stuff of the other teams when they get all these attackers on. They ask these guys to create in moments one-on-one, and it's a really difficult challenge. But like they they answered it today against, I thought, a German team that is now looking vulnerable against one-on-one defending. That's one thing we've said about them. and so The ability for Ecuador to pin them in for this sequence, it's like five, 10 minutes where they just really get at them.
00:14:23
Speaker
That's terrifying for Germany. And that's the proof that Ecuador can hang their hat on. Like, okay, if we're down again in a knockout round, like we don't have to panic 100%. We can tap into this.
00:14:34
Speaker
And I think it's it's interesting because Ecuador stuck with their game plan, right? Through the whole tournament, they stuck with their game plan. They didn't panic. They didn't start sending guys forward. They didn't look to guys on their bench that they hadn't played, right? Like you could have seen a guy like Kendri Pias try and come in this game. Anthony Valencia, who was good in the friendlies. Those guys didn't play any minutes so far in this tournament.
00:14:51
Speaker
So I think Becca SESA deserves credit for kind of sticking with it and saying, what we have works. Our system is good here and we can find a goal from this system and from this style of play.
00:15:02
Speaker
And so the the dial that he can press when he needs it the most is the superpower of Caicedo, Pacho, and Ordonez to leave like the triangle back. And maybe you get a little bit of Vitae too, you said was really good contesting. But you kind of go three, four back, and then you push everyone else up. Fullback super high up.
00:15:22
Speaker
And then you can really press the front line. And I think when you start getting into that... six, seven forward math, three, four back. That's a lot to deal with. And again, it's the point. When can you do that? You could do it for five, 10 minutes, but I'll take leaving Caicedo and Pacho back versus almost anyone. If you're going two guys back.
00:15:42
Speaker
And it's interesting because the fullbacks are key here, right? He changes both fullbacks to get more attacking players and it just helps them recycle possession and really pin Germany in. To Nagelsmann's credit, I think he came into this game with a plan and I don't think he really cared what happened on the other side. He was going stick to his plan. And so by the time Germany are chasing, and I put it in air quotes chasing because they're not really that, like they want to score obviously, but it doesn't really matter.
00:16:03
Speaker
They end up chasing this game with Musiala, Sanรฉ, a very stagnant Denis Undov, who had by far his worst of the three games, Bayer and Gross. And that team chasing against this Ecuador defense, I'm favoring the Ecuador defense, and that's what happened here. I didn't think Germany really created anything down the stretch. They also weren't exactly throwing everything they had at it either.
00:16:24
Speaker
Correct. It was half-hearted is the right word. Look, when we saw Germany Ivory Coast in the last 10 minutes, look at the players who were are on the field then, look at the players who are on the field now. Sade is an easy one to circle. Bayern Gross are easy ones to circle that wouldn't necessarily in the field. Look, it's...
00:16:42
Speaker
It's the benefit of Ecuador had. Eventually, they got the benefit of being the playing the ro ah the team already through. There wasn't rotation, but there was perhaps a sub-rotation. Is that a term? I don't think it's a term. We just made that up. It makes sense, though. I think that's what happened to it. You get what I'm saying. so um yeah At some point, you you had to earn some goodwill and...
00:17:07
Speaker
this This thing that now im I'm rattling around is the order of the games is like so, so crucial in this World Cup. And I think it was bad for Ecuador, but ultimately for the last 10 minutes, it finally was good, right? It finally came all the way around.
00:17:23
Speaker
It's interesting. So for Germany now, we've seen and I'm going to use the term quarters here because I think it's kind of the best way to look at it. We've seen what? Seven quarters of Germany's a team against high level opposition in Ivory Coast and Ecuador.
00:17:35
Speaker
And they've been good for one of those seven quarters. Should we be big, long big picture, long term concerned here? Or can we just write it off as group stage and it'll be different in the knockout round?
00:17:48
Speaker
I don't think you can do the latter. I don't think you could just write it off. I think this team is very, it's not one dimensional, but it's, it's built to play a certain way. It's not that they're bad in both phases, but they're kind of built for like Nagelsmann's gear. And i just think they came up against two teams that were very, very built to play against that gear. So the right team, i think you wouldn't be worried. They're still going to have a hard game, but you're just going to roll out what you do and it's going to be fine. You're going to like your chances. It's not going be 100, but generally you're going to create more than them and feel good about it. Now, when you play a direct team that can match you physically and and take you one-on-one and feel good about it, it's trouble, right? It's a lot of trouble because I don't think Nagelsmann wants to...
00:18:41
Speaker
play another way against it. He's just going to play the way he plays and live with it. And so in my mind, what I'm going to is, OK, if this all goes the way it goes, you're looking at France. Now I'm convinced that it's not that they can't beat France, but he's just going to play this game against that team. And that's a dumb way to approach that game. Maybe he's saving that wrinkle. But like Germany's biggest, biggest weakness is the formation, the way the defenders have to play in space, the way that those aren't real defenders for those positions. And then you're just looking at the scariest, scariest team on the other side.
00:19:14
Speaker
But if your Novelsman doesn't matter, like he doesn't care how he defends them. I think his system is designed to create as much chance as possible and live with the results. And the one thing he can press is if he gets Undov actually starting or playing more important minutes against, let's say, France, can he tilt that into 2-1, 3-2 the right way? I don't like the answer to that question, but I think it just kind of answers your question in his way.
00:19:43
Speaker
I'm concerned about Germany. I'm i'm very concerned about them. i it's It felt like I came out of that Ivory Coast game where I thought Ivory Coast was the better team in that game. And then this performance kind of just backed that up for me. And the ceiling very much feels like the round of 16. And look, they're probably going to play Pargwai in the round of 32. I don't think I'm feeling super great about Germany in that game either.
00:20:05
Speaker
See,
Ecuador's Potential Against Mexico
00:20:06
Speaker
that's where we differ. To me, I'm just like, this is kind of what I expected from Germany. I think they're like the eighth to ninth best team in the world, maybe seventh. And they're going to play maybe France and that doesn't go well.
00:20:17
Speaker
Paraguay is a bridge too far. But let's see. I mean, that's a very interesting game. i don't if Paraguay was like 10 percent more going forward, I would like Paraguay are worse than Ecuador at what they're trying to do. That is the issue. And less physical than Ecuador and Ivy Coast. I think that's certainly true. Germany should should win that match physically. For Ecuador, a bit they're into the round of 32, and now it feels like the sky's kind of the limit. They're one of these swing third-place teams where we don't know exactly where they're going to end, but it looks like they're kind of two-thirds chance to end up playing Mexico in Mexico City.
00:20:50
Speaker
They win that, then they could get England in Mexico City. I'm kind of intrigued by what I'm seeing here. Honestly, this is a big, big, big development for this little quadrant because i feel bad for Mexico. It's like, I don't want to see Ecuador. I mean, truthfully, who's better?
00:21:08
Speaker
Like, ah let's go. Let's go right now. Just in team. We're not predicting the game. Who's a better team, Mexico or Ecuador? Ecuador. Right? Right? Like, am I crazy? They've got Pacho, better best player than it better player than anyone in Mexico. Caicedo, best player at anyone in Mexico.
00:21:23
Speaker
Hincope? i probably better than anyone on Mexico. And then it's like Raul Jimenez. And then what? I mean, it's, yeah. So you got three of the the four best players. I know it's not basketball. You can't just analyze the games like that. But, but also something that i'm mean to steal your point is that your biggest home field advantage, the old altitude is the wrong team to see. Yeah, that's the it's the one team in this tournament that has the altitude and knows what to do with it. i think that's tough. And Ecuador can use that to their advantage as well if they are to advance. I think it's a really, really good round of 32 game. it's It's going to be a great scene at the Azteca. The run is there for Ecuador, right? Now that they've gotten out of the group, they're not going to play a game now where they're in that awkward game state for them, right? They don't have to see a Curacao low block that's just trying to frustrate them.
00:22:14
Speaker
That Mexico game might be very low event, but Ecuador are used to playing that game. And pretty much anything else they would play would be them getting to play their strong defend counter style play win one on one battles the other way that works to their favor.
00:22:29
Speaker
you are a hundred cents spot on and we're not looking at, I'm not looking at the external models or the gambling numbers right now, but I'm just telling the listeners that because of what you just said, Austin, and I agree with is this team, there's some value to be had in their knockout run. Everything translates so much better and whatever models exist are pulling off the past three games. And if it, if it doesn't like the last performances, we're telling you why, and they just aren't really going to be in those. Look, the,
00:22:59
Speaker
The thing, Ecuador's worst case scenario is getting behind in any of these games, right? But yep it's just... yes, that can happen. It could happen. But like, this is what they were built for. This is what this team was built for. And it was dicey by the 10 minutes, 10 minutes isst of margins to get here. But now they're here.
00:23:19
Speaker
i like it. I like it. Other game in this group amid a 2-0 win for Ivory Coast against Curacao. Nicolas Pepe scores twice for Ivory Coast. Anything big we need to take away here feels like this game largely went to what we expected. i think Ivory Coast are getting attacking contributions and that also makes them a very dangerous team in the knockout round there's not too much to write at home about here i think curacao quitted themselves decently they yeah didn't really have a lot going forward you knew you weren't going to have but they didn't like to to their credit and to their detriment they weren't haiti they weren't like we're gonna have It's fun like because they were theoretically in this game. right If they win, they're somehow in the yeah table somewhere. So they're trying to manage this as good as possible. The issue is you go down one and then you're doing the whole salvage job, some of the term we've used to hang around as long as possible.
00:24:10
Speaker
That's not very fun for anyone trying to do the salvage job against Ivory Coast. But Ivory Coast's credit, they were never in danger. Completely limit with the threat. The one-on-one defending is very good. And to your point, I think the biggest takeaway here is that Nicolas Pepe has a really good game on the right wing.
00:24:25
Speaker
And I think there's a real... case to be made that his secret skill is he's a winger that gets shots like an inside forward cuts in on his left foot very good finisher it's a useful role and diallo is more of a tricky unlock player but now you start thinking about what do i want on the other side of my attack when my left-sided player is jan diamande who is just gonna cross cross cross cut line cut line by line cut back I want the guy that's going to score it when it comes to his left foot. And so I think there's a real case that Pepe can can maybe should be starting. And Diallo is your super sub if you need to to break down a defense. Pepe is fast. He can turn. He can run. That is a headache for defenses when you're looking at two wingers that you can't give any space. And then even if you don't give space, they just force feed Tiamonde. I mean, like...
00:25:16
Speaker
It's a pretty simple game right now for every coast and it it almost beat Germany. And I, you know, let's talk about what comes next for them. They're going to have a good chance. It's the quadrant of death, right? We've kind of coined this term and this is exactly what it's looking like because it's Brazil and Japan on the top part of this quadrant. And the ivory coast are going to play the runner up of the Norway France group. That's either Norway or God forbid it's France. You throw France into this quadrant, it's like the double quadrant of death. But if it's Ivory Coast, Norway, Brazil, Japan, those are four teams that are all legitimate quarterfinal threats, all in the exact same quadrant, all facing off head to head.
00:25:56
Speaker
i don't think there's any reason why Ivory Coast can't be the team that comes out of it. All four of those teams, it feels like, could be the quarterfinalists here. Truly, it's like Dark Horse Central. It's ah it's a bummer, but we're going to find out. I think, as you said, it's just really, really fun. Look, let's talk about those games when we get there. I think they're they're all sorts of like little wrinkles that match up really well.
00:26:19
Speaker
I don't think in any game they're going to necessarily be a massive favorite, even a slight favorite. I don't think in any game they're going to be a massive underdog, slight underdog. All of these games are in that 10%, 5% either way zone, which is really, really fascinating. And when it gets to that zone, let's let's let's just say this about the analysis is that you you you're relying less on every all the X's and O's and all the the numbers and could can you turn into x factors can i turn this into that game where let's pretend it's norway we gotta stop erling holland we gotta get diamante and it's super reductive to go like that but doesn't it feel like this world cup out of a lot of world cups is kind of looking in that vein of knockout soccer
00:27:02
Speaker
Yeah, because I think the general overall level of what, 26, 27 of the 32 teams who are going through is there, right? Yes, there are a couple of outliers that we'll get to, but the level is there such that I feel like the X's and O's, not that they're goingnna cancel everything out, but that they are largely equal. And then it comes down to moments and moment makers, right? And that's exactly the point that you make.
00:27:26
Speaker
Is it your star? Is it you being able to neutralize a star? Is it, are you finding a bounce somewhere that feels like it's going to be more important than ever in this world cup knockout stage? i for one, am very, very excited for it.
00:27:37
Speaker
Second group to talk about here, Amit, let's go to what happened at night in group D. Do you want to start with fun or do you want to start with impact? Let's start with impact and just discuss this absolutely incredible affair between Australia and Paraguay.
00:27:55
Speaker
So ah um if I told you that two of the most inherently defensive teams at this World Cup are going to get together to play a game where both of them know that a draw is going to be enough to get them through, ah you'll never believe what happens next. This game is what happens next.
00:28:12
Speaker
Just a delight in trying to do nothing. ah Truly, that's what it was. I mean, not quite watching paint dry, but the way you describe this to me, I think I'm going to steal it is both teams were just trying to go two on four for 90 minutes. And...
00:28:29
Speaker
You got to be real sick to enjoy that. But it was it was at least like good managing by both. and They earned they earned this game. It was very, very comical. I think the whole time Paraguay did their thing really well.
00:28:42
Speaker
Australia, they were happy to slide into that role. Yeah, I think this game, like you said, neith it wasn't that these teams weren't willing to attack. It wasn't that they wanted to just pass around the midfield and be content with no-nil. I think they were both vaguely interested in winning this game, right? But they certainly were not interested in winning this game at the cost of losing this game. And so what that means is they're asking their attacking players, all right,
00:29:08
Speaker
Go two on four. Maybe we'll score. If we don't, it's fine. And so this game ends up with a lot of one on two take ons that just get erased. It ends with the ball spending an inordinate amount of time in the air looking for a head.
00:29:22
Speaker
Generally, the head it finds is Australian. But in getting that Australian head up, there's usually a high arm that catches a Paraguay player. And so on many occasions in this game, Australia win an aerial battle and it's a 50-50 call as to whether it's a foul or not. And the Paraguay player then makes a meal. that That's how this game generally developed. I don't think there are really any individual moments to make. The best chance of this game might be Jackson Irvine early on, who sees his chance saved by Orlando Hill.
00:29:50
Speaker
The XG at halftime here is 0.14 to 0.05 in favor of Australia. The full-time XG is 0.55 to 0.24 in favor of Australia.
00:30:02
Speaker
Nobody's willing to get beat easy. Any chance that comes is from guys getting beat. It always feels like there's guys recovering. And that is what we saw for 90 minutes. Rinse and repeat. Run the cycle.
00:30:15
Speaker
Basically. I mean, the one thing you're hoping for is, did anyone here show something that is going to change your outlook of them ahead of the knockout round? um Irvine hasn't been starting that much for Australia.
00:30:28
Speaker
don't think he necessarily, like... took that really uh you took that job over and what he showed here this is a weird game for both teams and how they're going also translate to the next round because they're going to need they're going play this way but they're going to need to do a lot more defending kind of have that on tape um i don't know i mean like pargwai you know don't even start almiron like how do you how do you evaluate it right right so how do you evaluate the attacks either it was was kind of dull I will say my big takeaway here is Turkey were were were probably watching their own game, which they won three, two against the U S they probably watched this Nestor or Iran Kundin performance. It was like, dude, what was that on the first night of the world cup? How are you coming up with that performance against us? Cause Iran Kundin wasn't great here. He was fast, but he didn't really do anything. The final ball, this game was five, four, one against five, four, one. And so there are just eternally eight guys between the ball and the goal And it developed that way. And again, neither of these teams were that interested in changing the status quo.
00:31:29
Speaker
Yes, I think there was motivation to try and finish second in this group. But as you said, and as you pointed out, I think perfectly coming into this game, Gustavo Alfaro wasn't the guy who was going to change that calculus. He wasn't going to risk going through for the sake of a better matchup.
00:31:45
Speaker
And that's what happens here. Australia are the team that have a bit more of the ball here and thus create a couple more chances, but nothing really that should have ever found in the back of the net. And that's how it finishes. No, no. So Australia finished second here. They get the Group G runner up. The best odds are that it that is Belgium, but it could yet be Egypt or Iran.
00:32:05
Speaker
Paraguay are not 100% confirmed yet. Amit, they're on four points, but a minus two goal differential has them behind the other teams on four points. Their most likely matchup is against Germany. i already gave that matchup a good little hmm earlier. Amit did not buy my hmm for that Germany.
00:32:23
Speaker
Paraguay matchup, but in the sake for the sake of being complete on the world cup after dark, you know, that's what we're after here is the full list of results that would need to go against Paraguay for them not to advance to the round of 32. They would need Belgium and Iran to win in group G,
00:32:40
Speaker
Uruguay to win in Group H, and then either a Cape Verde win or a two-goal win for Saudi Arabia. They would need a score draw between Austria, Algeria, and Group J. DR Congo to beat Uzbekistan in Group K. And then by and then Croatia to win by two or fewer goals in Group L. i mean If all of those things happen, Paraguay will be out. If any one of those things does not happen, they will be through.
00:33:03
Speaker
And it's a round of applause for Gustavo Alfaro, who has somehow done it again. Wow. I mean, the magic man has done it himself. um just Just going through all that, I was thinking, like what's the percentage here? And how how devastated would Alfaro be if somehow this happened? And I just realized I don't have to think about it because it's Gustavo Alfaro. Everything goes his way all the time.
00:33:23
Speaker
um Look, you just have to keep giving him credit. And yeah, we we do bits all the time. Our favorite bit is how does he get away with this? Paraguay are not a serious like good team. They're a middling team that gets all the bounces.
00:33:38
Speaker
um But I think. No, wait, actually, if you think about the way they beat Turkey, it was the same thing. he did it again. No, it is. He's just waving his wand. Things are happening. And he gets it and he he gets a situation, right? You talk about order of games. He gets a situation where he plays an opponent that is vaguely uninterested in doing anything. And that just plays right into his hand.
00:34:00
Speaker
Exactly. And so that's where if you do these three games differently, it's just not going to necessarily work that way. And specifically the way they beat Turkey was exactly the way that he beats teams better than him. But but I know we're joking. We're doing a bit more because it's still true. But...
00:34:17
Speaker
you know, this is the World Cup. This isn't volleyball qualifying. The defense traveled. The defense traveled. And yeah, the US, like I think, has also shown outside of that like first 30 minutes, they were shot out of a cannon. Like even they will struggle to replicate that level again. Like they did come up against a buzzsaw.
00:34:37
Speaker
I think outside of that, his defense, his travels, and whoever it is, if it's Germany, I know you went hmm and I went hmm, but I think... You know what you're going to see, right? Yeah. And you're just trying to get that to a mental game. And listen, Germany going to stack all the attackers they want. Paraguay just will match them defender for defender. So it's a fascinating game. This is a team that...
00:35:02
Speaker
the psychological aspect of playing them because of Alfaro, because of their nastiness. yeah I want to give you credit when we talked about this preview pod way back preview, preview group D, like they're just there.
00:35:17
Speaker
They could tap into this in a way we thought it was going to affect the United States. Now they've re-earned that big stage moment and it's not the United States. And I just think they relish, they relish that. yeah,
00:35:28
Speaker
Listen, we we we big up them. They fell. We kept picking up them. They hung on. Are we is it just a cycle? Like what are their odds going to be? It's going to be low. But I think you're just going to have to to watch the theater of it all ah to to play on your analogy a little bit more. Their defense traveled. And I know you've you've had some some various travel issues in your life. I mean, ah their defense travel. It just got a little diverted, right? It was just a little late it's getting there. They got there. The bags weren't there. They had to look around. But by the second game, it was all there. They had everything there and they made it. So the other game of this group event is a 3-2 win for Turkey against the U.S. We
USA's Decisions and Turkey's Triumph
00:36:02
Speaker
talked a bit about the Pochettino rotation in comparison to Nagelsmann.
00:36:06
Speaker
This is basically a full-on rotation from the U.S. Weston McKinney starts in the midfield in captains. Other than that, I don't think there's a single starter for the U.S. that plays here, right? The entire backline gets rotated. The entire attack gets rotated. Gio Reynas at Berhalter come into the midfield. Matt Turner even plays in goal.
00:36:26
Speaker
I don't think this approach was surprising from Pochettino. I don't think we need to read a ton into the result, right? Because this is kind of what you were expected. And this is what the U.S. earned with the two performances that they had earlier on in the group stage.
00:36:43
Speaker
100% and I don't I would have done this the same way. um This is what yeah you don't want to risk any of the players on the cards. You don't want to start Christian Pulisic who comes in later and I think that's a good thing too that he also gets some run in a ah free leverage situation but could kind of get those legs up to speed.
00:37:04
Speaker
um Look, the next thing you're pivoting to once you start this approach is everyone here. Can you show me something for how this might translate into your sub role in a different role?
00:37:14
Speaker
And I thought on the whole, the answer was everyone is kind of what they thought they were. I don't think anyone necessarily elevated. I'm not saying these players are bad or they're not useful, but i don't think anyone improved their stock so much so that you have ah you're like dying to to play them. Look, I think the front line way of Pepe Aronson, good, useful players. Happy to have them. Going to be fine when it when it comes time to play them.
00:37:38
Speaker
Behind them, Berhalter, he's your backup midfielder. Great goal, by the way. Great hit. Like, happy to have him, too. i don't think that's fine. Reyna, I mean, what do you, did like, he it he's an enigma he's an enigma of a player.
00:37:51
Speaker
Gio Reyna is Gio Reyna. And if the U.S. is chasing a game in the last 10 or 15 minutes, yeah, I think there's a spot for him to come on and just try and be a game-breaking personality. He's not seeing the starting lineup. He was never seeing the starting lineup, and this was exactly what we kind of expected from it.
00:38:06
Speaker
Then you look at the back line, and that's the one thing where I thought, Look, turkey's like Turkey's good, and they were due to have their attacking stuff come off. And I think if you play this backline against Paraguay Australia, they don't look as bad. But they they had a tough day today, tough day at the office, tracking Paraguay's speed, movement, and runners. And then you could see that like what separates the level is like the the when the ball movement and the they get behind you and cut back, you've got a track over your head. like it's It's very, very hard to defend a good team. And you're like...
00:38:40
Speaker
are these guys worse than Parguise or Australia's back lines? The answer, it's it's not really important question, but they're not as good as your starters. And not only are they not as good, like you'd feel bad about these guys. And we, we and one thing we'd said before the preview in the preview podcast is, man, we really like Mark McKenzie. Like, can he kind of take this job from Tim Ream?
00:39:01
Speaker
I thought he played well after the mistakes in the first goal, but he makes them. And, yeah, he's He's really good tools, a defender, but that spatial awareness from him and Robinson and also maybe not playing together was tough. And the other thing that is unfortunate in this game is I really like Austin trusty. He's actually a really great set piece threat, but it's also speaking to Max Arfston not being the left back here. And he's playing like a weird center back left back hybrid. Joe Scali is also pretty poor and having a tough day trying to to deal with the Turkish, you know, attack, just running at him over and over again.
00:39:38
Speaker
On the whole, like again, not to spend too much time on it, the the defense had a tough day against a very good Turkey attack. And I think the one thing that I am interested in this match is the U.S. started hot again. And that's now three straight games where they have just come out guns blazing, finding the back the net. And I think the comparison that keeps coming back to me, Amit, is these are very U.S. women's national team performances. That is a hallmark of what the U.S. women's national team does. They play guns blazing in the first 10 or 15 minutes of a game, and they usually turn that into a goal. And so when they do that, you're just always playing from a positive game state. And the U.S. men's national team did that again here. Austin trusty gets the goal three minutes into this game. You're like, ah, more of the same. Keep doing that. Run it out.
00:40:23
Speaker
But on the other side is a turkey team that, as you said, they were due, right? They created all of these chances. They had all these opportunities. They hadn't found in the back of the net. Eventually, some of these intricate passing moves were going to come out. And in the buildup, right, Vincenzo Montella is very adamant. I'm not resigning from this job. I believe in what I can do. We can have a good European championship campaign in 2028.
00:40:44
Speaker
And I don't want to say he's necessarily vindicated here because look, again, you're going against the U S second string backline, but this is the performance that we were more expecting to see from Turkey and those other two games. And again, it's interesting. Like you said, them getting the more defensive games first meant that it just kind of snowballed when they didn't score.
00:41:04
Speaker
But now they did in this game. And I thought Artic Goulair was really good. Yilmaz playing the false nine role was really good. And this was probably a more favorable matchup for them, but they took advantage of it. And this was, again, what we kind of expected to see from Turkey.
00:41:19
Speaker
100%. think my end assessment of them is it was a ah bit unfortunate, right? It's bad luck. I think on the whole, the way this played out, Goulair is such a good player. and he was he was he was unstoppable today. So...
00:41:35
Speaker
i I mean, how much blame do you put on Vincenzo Montella or versus just it was if you roll these performances out, the ball bounced badly three times. Like, is there a lot to poke fault at what he could do with this set of players?
00:41:48
Speaker
I don't think so, because, again, like we saw that is cool for Turkey. And it was like, oh, yeah, that's why he's not like. I, I, what was the other solution here? I don't know what other button he, like, these are the players he had. i think this was the style he had to play with them. And as you said, they just didn't get the bounces in the first two games. They didn't put it in the back of the net and here they're able to manipulate the U S backline in a way that they'd certainly weren't able to do against Australia and Paraguay and it's successful. I, I don't think there's really anything else we need to take away from this match. Turkey win it late with the goal in the 90 plus eighth minute.
00:42:20
Speaker
You mentioned the Sebastian Berhalter goal. It was really good. The set piece work from trustee is really good. Let's also be clear. The U S doesn't need to be concerned about this performance. Okay. Yeah. The vibes aren't immaculate going into the round of 32, but they didn't play their guys. They put Pulisic on for a little bit. Like you said, it's good. I think that he was able to play that. You felt good enough about him to put him in this game when it was very meaningless. think that's a good sign.
00:42:44
Speaker
And look, the path ahead of them is still the path ahead of them. And it's wide open until the quarterfinals. And that's exactly what this U.S. team wanted. Agreed. Look, if the vibes were great from this game, you'd feel even better. But I think it's an easy reset. And that's where you're doing the same Pochettino-Nogglesman comparison.
00:43:03
Speaker
i think everyone... i think the literacy is high enough now in the fandom, too, to keep the vibes going good by the time they roll the they face Bosnia rolling up to the round of 32. So you just kind of flush it and you go look at the the opportunity in front of us. And I think...
00:43:20
Speaker
In the same way that Mexico earned goodwill, this team earned goodwill through two games. And yeah, Mexico transcended that in their third game. It's okay. That didn't quite happen here. There was still still enough positive vibes.
00:43:32
Speaker
Yeah, you give this USA team Czechia in their third game, they're also transcending that goodwill, right? Exactly. It's just a very awkward matchup in that you're playing a legitimately good attacking team that was desperately due to have their attacking moves come off. And guess what? They did. And that's what happened. So the US, s again, has won this group. They'd already won this group. They will play Bosnia in the round of 32. We already touched on the matchups for Austria and Parwik. Final group to break down from yesterday's action. Amit a 1-1 draw between Sweden and Japan and a 3-1 win for the Netherlands against Tunisia. Let's actually start in Kansas City with Netherlands-Tunisia. Let's get this out of the way.
Netherlands vs. Tunisia: A Dominant Performance
00:44:07
Speaker
ah so Two goals in the first seven minutes for the Netherlands. Two of the three goals for the Netherlands are last off a Tunisian defender. One credited as an own goal. One credited as a goal that wasn't an own goal. But again, the last touch for Van Hake's goal comes off a Tunisian defender.
00:44:21
Speaker
I'll just say this. Even in the rain, Bernard's unruffled. He didn't get wet. I don't know how it's raining for 90 minutes and the dude is just not wet. Unfortunately, his team was was very ruffled.
00:44:33
Speaker
Yeah, tough day for Tunisia. And there's not a lot really to say about them. This game was meaningless and it kind of just yeah what it wasn't meaningless if Tunisia could have somehow ran up a score with her. to No, Tunisia was out. Netherlands needed this game and they got this game in the first 10 minutes. And that just kind of put the rest of this game on cruise control.
00:44:53
Speaker
Fair enough. And look, the one thing you can say for Komen in Netherlands is he's found Broby as a really good piece that had already kind of developed before this game. He's really smart in the box. And also the other thing you're seeing from them is set piece threat is really good. And they can lean on that button early and often. um Look, this the Netherlands have have, I think, improved their stock slightly over these three games. Am I going to overread in a Tunisia game improving their stock? No, but it's very professional to just...
00:45:22
Speaker
kind of, you know, bowl them over with your physicality with Broby, with Van Dyke on the set piece too. um It's a good team. Two goals in the first game, five goals of the second game, three goals in the third game. The scoring threat is absolutely there. And it sets up amit a mouth-watering round of 32 game. Netherlands, Morocco, two teams that I think can legitimately say they could win this World Cup on talent and on performance. They're going to meet on the first full day of the round of 32. And one of them is going to be going home.
00:45:53
Speaker
What an unfortunate draw this is for them. What a great draw this is for us neutrals. You're saying that's Monday, first full day? Yeah. ah that's The rest day advantage definitely helps Morocco slightly there. but i mean Sorry, that's where my brain goes nerd brain goes first. But straight great great game. like Truly, truly great game. The attacking talent both teams are going to want to attack. The star players all over the field. Talk about... like Yeah, it's the moments of superstars, but I think then players like three through eight are also good enough to all do moments. So I was salivating over the last time we talked about it. I'm still salivating over it. I think it just has potential to be like one of the most exciting first round knockout games in the World Cup ever. Like, I don't think that's high, too high of billing for it. No, and I think what's great about it is neither of those teams are defensive by nature. And so I think they're yes they're going to play attacking football, right? They're going to go at each other. And this game could literally be 3-2. It could be 2-2 into extra time. Like, that's the type of game that I think we're going to get. It's going to so... So good. We'll preview that when it comes time to preview that. We'll give it its due. Don't worry. Another game in this group, 1-1 draw between Japan and Sweden.
00:47:04
Speaker
Some interesting lineup decisions for Sweden for Graham Potter. He makes a change in goal, brings in Zetterstrom. I thought he was good, made a couple of big saves here. Stroud comes in for Niagara to maybe be a bit more defensive. This game was open in the first half, but it was open in a way that never created anything clear cut. And I think Sweden, the Mitt, approached this game knowing that the only thing we can't do here is get blown out.
00:47:28
Speaker
As long as we don't get blown out, we're going to be fine. And I think as much as Sweden could play that game state, I think they did. A hundred percent. I thought this was good managing from Graham Potter. I'm not his biggest, biggest fan, but you know, he's a pretty experienced guy. He's a very good defensive setup guy. He respects what Japan are trying to do. He's like, look, if you're going to score, you need to get six, seven guys forward into my box. And not only you going to get to my box, you're going to have to pull off a really, really nice piece of attacking play. And yeah, we're going to try to attack and get numbers forward, but we're never going to expose ourselves. I thought the shape here from Sweden was very good. They'd clearly watched a lot of tape on Japan's movement to like prevent those attacks from happening. And yeah I don't love their center backs, but I thought they acquitted themselves pretty well here against Japan. And maybe the the height advantage, the speed disadvantage it were tough to deal with, but they did. So it was a decent performance overall.
00:48:30
Speaker
Yeah, it was interesting. I thought Goodmanson was good in this game, and then they have to make the first half change where they take Hein off, and then the change they make is they bring Bergvall on, and then that kind of shifts their... It was weird. It was very tactical because they make this change, and then Japan almost kind of respond with a change of their own, and they take off Itzakuro, and they bring on Taniguchi, and it was very interesting. It was like Wariatsu saw the Swedish switch and and decided to to make a switch his own. Really great save from Zetterstrom right on halftime, and then Japan in the second half, you said it, Sweden were adamant that if Japan were going to score, they were going to have to put numbers forward and it was going to take something special.
00:49:06
Speaker
The Japanese goal is the definition of something special. It is like clip that and this is how you describe what the Japan system looks like when it works. It's just this great intricate play.
00:49:17
Speaker
Maeda is the man who finishes it, but Tanaka, Sugawara, Doan, all involved. And it's just like this quintessential example of passing it into the net. When we talk about what passing it the net looks like, it's this move. So, so good.
00:49:30
Speaker
It's the timing, it's the runs, where they get to them. I think one thing that Japan does so, so well is getting the ball into the the danger area and then everyone immediately knows what to do off of it. It sounds so simple, but like I'm foiling them Korea because they're their Asian counterparts. like Just because I've seen those two teams play a lot, they're similar not necessarily play styles, but in the way they're trying to create chances, it's so hard to get into that position and have the ability to turn and then play the next ball. You need to be very, very tidy. And then you also need to be willing to send your runner behind the defense and then make the pass. So many teams that, that last run never comes. And Japan are just always, always making that run. Maeda Ueda really, really good in this game. And Dawn has been good too. So like,
00:50:26
Speaker
It's the IQ and movement is really, really hard to track for for opposing defenses. This was so, so good. And it was interesting because this goal goes in and Sweden are now kind of in the scary spot because with the live table with this goal, they're on three points with a minus one goal differential. One more goal goes in and they're all of a sudden behind Korea.
00:50:46
Speaker
South Korea in the third place table. And then that could create an interesting weight. To Sweden's credit, there was no scary season because they had Alanga in tow. And the play here from Anthony Alanga is just, this is what this Swedish attack can do, right?
00:51:02
Speaker
Talked to all Japan showing all these intricate passing movements. All good. The Anthony Alanga move is simply get to spot, shoot, score. That's what it is. It's a laser to the bottom left corner on his left foot. This is as good of a goal as the Japan one is just very different.
00:51:16
Speaker
It's a great shot. And Alanga has been a poor finisher all year, i think, for Newcastle until the very, very end of the season where he kind of picked it up. But I think he knows for Sweden, he has to to take on some of that role because there's not a lot of help for this front three.
00:51:31
Speaker
And you know you can strike the ball, too. That's another thing that's that's part of this tournament. um it's a great It's a great finish. I mean, poor Zion Suzuki is just like, what do what do I do here? um Look, I...
00:51:45
Speaker
And Ilanga has now kind of surprised twice for Sweden. And he's a big, big X-Fact of this team because the other two guys are strikery. it's So like he's just got so much of that creative burden on him. I think he's quietly, quietly really impressed well.
00:52:01
Speaker
I think just in general on Sweden, like... I think their balance is pretty good. i don't think their their ceiling is super, super high, but like this is and this game is also the context of it is no one's super, super trying to, you know, go for it the best punch from Japan. But I've been impressed in how well they've hung after the first, you know, bad effort.
00:52:21
Speaker
Yeah, and I think Japan handled Yakuza really well in this game. Yakuza had a big size advantage and Japan just beat the crap out of him, right? Like they understood we're smaller. We can kind of do what we want with this guy. And some them will get called fouls and some of them won't. They had Yakuza really frustrated by the end of this game. And Yakuza ends up getting the assist on the Ilanga goal.
00:52:39
Speaker
didn't think he was super great for Sweden in this game. After Sweden equalized, I think they were the better team in the last 15 or 20 minutes. There's really great save from Zion Suzuki in stoppage time that ends up putting Japan in the second.
00:52:50
Speaker
For a moment, Amit, you're kind of thinking, is there motivation for Japan to finish in third and not second and not have to play Brazil in the round of 32? It's funny, we do all of these game theory things like you and I sit here and and you've mentioned our our nerdy nature on some of this. And yes, some of that comes through because we're always kind of mapping out possibilities and probabilities.
00:53:08
Speaker
The players just play, right? And Suzuki just goes and makes a save. He's not thinking about trying to avoid Brazil. Probably a good thing they didn't because the most likely third place matchup for this team is France. So between Brazil and France, I'm probably picking Brazil. I think between those two games, Although I guess it could be Norway if they win the group, but whatever.
00:53:25
Speaker
I think Japan played well in this game, but as you said, they lacked that final gear because they simply didn't need it and they were content to go through where they went through. So Japan threw in second. They play Brazil in the quadrant of death. Sweden threw in third on their four points with where their goal differential is.
00:53:42
Speaker
There is a 99% chance that Sweden are playing France. Well, I guess that they're playing the winner of the France group in the round of 32. Good luck, Sweden, if that's the game. Yeah, I mean, that's where the defense just doesn't quite you know translate as well. I mean, we'll talk about that one more in detail, too. You're asking Gyakuras to like buy you chances with physicality. Maybe he's refereed a little bit differently, but it's a tough, tough proposition. The other thing you just have to say here about Japan is...
00:54:09
Speaker
What a job by Moriasu, right? You can't you know forget enough that they're also missing two of their best attackers. yeah And the the speed and fluidity, like they clearly been drilling these patterns for a long, long time. It's it's been very, very good on his part. And i think mentally also, you you know it's not that you assume that Japan are just going to kind of you know bring bring it exactly, but like they're very, very focused on the task. Yeah.
00:54:34
Speaker
One thing before we get to the third place table that we didn't get to earlier on the show that slipped my mind that I just have to mention. And look, if you're 55 minutes into an edition of the World Cup after dark, this is the content you're looking for.
00:54:45
Speaker
Round of applause to Sebastian Beccasese for what had to be the slowest Lambeau leap in the history of Lambeau leaps to celebrate the Ecuador 2-1 winner. That was hey hilarious. He's old, couldn't quite get up, but ah it was it was great theater.
00:54:59
Speaker
He got there in the end. He's like puttered his way forward and climbs the fence. And then all of Sebastian Beccasese's family also just looks like Sebastian Beccasese. It's like there's four of them in the stands. It's wild. This is a very good tweet going around where you look at the pictures like, which one's Beccasese? Anyway, all right. that's That's enough of that. The third place table, um which I think is is very fascinating here. So Sweden, Ecuador, and Bosnia are already through on their four points. We talked about the situation for Paraguay on four minus two. They should be feeling very good.
00:55:24
Speaker
South Korea on three minus one, Scotland on three minus three. Look, there were three results this day. All three of them went against those two teams, right? They were probably expecting Ecuador to fall behind them. They didn't. There was a chance of Sweden and a chance of Paraguay. They didn't. That means that Scotland are in very uncomfortable waters and South Korea are starting to get a little sweaty here because we've just slowly watched the models take their odds from around 90% to now around 65% and a couple more results don't go their way.
00:55:54
Speaker
they're going to be looking at a 50, 50 chance no more. Yeah. So what's it coming down to for South Korea? Like that the teams that we're, we're hoping for, Yeah, so I think as we kind of shift to looking at today's games, I think this is a good way of looking at it. Senegal, Iraq is a big one. South Korea would really like Senegal to win by one goal or for Iraq to win that game or for it to finish as a draw.
00:56:18
Speaker
Because if Senegal win by two goals, that gets them to 3-0 and that bumps them above both South Korea and Scotland in that table. Scotland are hoping for Iraq to win that game or for it to finish as a draw.
00:56:29
Speaker
And then you're looking at the Spain-Otuguay group, right? yeah Again, if Uruguay get a point, and could get to 3-0. That's another team that's in front of South Korea on the table. Same deal with Cape for Saudi Arabia, maybe a bit less. And then in the last kind of set of matches, Iran, Egypt, Belgium, New Zealand, there's a lot that could happen there. There's a lot that could go on. South Korea are hoping that somebody doesn't finish on 3-0, that that group gives you a two-point third place team because that would at least be another team guaranteed behind them.
00:56:57
Speaker
But it's coming down to those types of results because as you look through tomorrow, There's not a ton of chances for three-point third-place teams because you've got Croatia and then you've got the Algeria-Austria game where I think we're pretty clear how that game could go.
00:57:12
Speaker
Although, if the table is where it's at, Algeria might be motivated that they need to get something from that game, but a draw could be beneficial for both those sides. So yeah, it's getting tough here for South Korea. It's getting late early. yeah I'm not liking it. I mean, you're saying around 65. It feels like it's in the toss-up range. It's not feeling good for South Korea. I mean, the way some of these results has gone.
00:57:33
Speaker
Let's see. There's still some chances. You're rooting very, very hard for Spain, right, if you're South Korea? Yeah, you're rooting hard for Spain. You're definitely rooting for DR Congo to slip up against Uzbekistan. The paths are all there in all of the groups. But again, you're starting to you need some of these to go your way because they don't go your way. You're just going to run out of opportunities of these games today. I admit i mentioned him earlier, France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq, early Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia in the middle.
00:57:57
Speaker
And then late night double barrel action, Iran, Egypt, Belgium, New Zealand. Which group, which games catching your eye here? I think there's a lot of pressure on Senegal. I don't think that game per se is the best, but France, Norway, there's stakes there. So you get to see Holland and Bappe stars out. They've delivered so far. So I think you've got to see that one. um Otherwise, i had really, really bigged up from the start Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia. Look, they don't need to fully win it. It's not quite the the the full on show, ah but I think that's really, really fun. And Cave Verde need to finish the job. And so is there pressure? Is there not?
00:58:32
Speaker
I'm banking there won't be, but I could look dumb. That's kind of where I'm at. And look, I'm not particularly excited about the last two games in a vacuum. But this is, as you're saying, the purest chance for double barrel fun. So this could get really, really out of control.
00:58:46
Speaker
Yeah, so Norway-France-Servis is a great, great game. I'm super interested by that. I think there's legitimate motivation for both of those teams to try and win the group because that you get a more accessible round of 32 game. I think Germany in the round of 16 isn't that terrible of a proposition because finishing second in this group, you're shipped straight to the quadrant of death and you're just it's going to be a bloodbath to even get to the quarterfinals. so I think there's a lot of motivation there. And I think I'm very intrigued to see Norway, right? Like we haven't seen them play an elite team yet in this run. Everything else they've done in this run has been really impressive. That's going to be great. Spain, Uruguay with Uruguay trying to desperately hold on for a draw that would probably get them through in third place. Really, really good theater. And the Cape Verde game, it's super interesting for Cape Verde because...
00:59:29
Speaker
If they're scoreboard watching what's happening between Spain and Uruguay, if Uruguay could, see like like, there's a possibility where Cape Verde could thread this needle and end up finishing third.
00:59:40
Speaker
i don't think that's really what a team like Cape Verde should be doing. But finishing second in this group is a round of 32 matchup against Argentina. I don't think that's what a team like Cape Verde should really be doing either. Is there a needle to be threaded there?
00:59:53
Speaker
I don't think so. I think you just take your Argentina game and get through if you can. Right. That's the achievement. Yeah. And it would be a massive achievement for a team like Cape Verde. And then, yeah, the double barrel late night action. It just screams like stupidity could happen there. Right. Super late kickoff. We're running the the midnight oil one final time, maybe at this World Cup. And everything is on the table. Right. Egypt need to win to to win the group.
01:00:21
Speaker
a draw and it could depend on if Belgium scores enough goals. Belgium could be looking to try and score goals. New Zealand aren't out of this either, right? New Zealand can scrap a win from this game and go through. Iran are are probably going to play for a drop. but There's a possibility that there's just so many different combinations that that set of games could give us. Yeah, it's not the best quality games on paper, but you fire both them up at the same time and who knows what could happen.
01:00:46
Speaker
It's going to be great. And New Zealand, just a little frisky enough, I think, to to ask the questions of Belgium. So that could be just you got to be on Belgium watch. I think that's for sure always on the cards.
01:00:57
Speaker
Liza Just running against that back line. Who knows what could happen? Who knows what could happen? I can tell you what will happen is the World Cup After Dark will be back tomorrow morning to recap everything that we see today.
01:01:08
Speaker
You know where to find us, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. If you want to support us, you can find out more at patreon.com slash WCAD. Amit and I are going to sit back and enjoy today's games, and we'll be back to recap it all for you tomorrow. Enjoy the action, and we'll see you then.