Transcript
Mikey Morales: Hey guys, welcome to another episode of the European Soccer Edge show. I'm your host Mikey Morales I am one. First of all, excited to talk about. a full weekend matchup of our four favorite leagues in La Liga Premier League. Bundesliga and Serie A.
Mikey Morales: So... What's this show about? This is a show where we translate European soccer tactical questions, expected game scripts, and accountable market decisions. So the edge score tells you how much I trust. the analysis that we make. The verdict tells you whether the available price makes the most sense. of and is Worth betting On Mondays, which is today, we separate the score from the process and the soccer ah opinion from the actual wager.
Mikey Morales: So let's begin the official board. But before we do that. some questions some things to to identify for us today is the official board may have gone 3 -0. for us.
Mikey Morales: We got three out of three this weekend. But if we say that the that all the bets won today on our episode, the audit really fails. So Barcelona minus one. and at and a half covered with it at the 82nd minute, just barely. But the late finish hides how thoroughly how thoroughly Barcelona really controlled this game. ah
Mikey Morales: against athletic uh coventry and hull city they stayed under a two and a half like we predicted Because Coventry really, their possession was a lot of crosses that didn't end up with any any actual chances. And Hull City, again, like they showed in...
Mikey Morales: from the first match day against Manchester United. They show that they can score on the counterattacks. late and make it dangerous, but they also. showed that they can hold that strength again like they did in the second half against Manchester United again here in with Coventry. Two different teams. to same Same outcome.
Mikey Morales: It's Juventus, Parma. they both scored Both teams' to score was a no. We also won today. But. We also identified we're going to as we go through that, that Parma's really. They... they had one solid chance against vicario on that and Other than that they didn't show a lot of bite.
Mikey Morales: A lot of teeth in this match. We also added and We didn't put any official bets on our show for Manchester City's four -goal game response against Crystal Palace, or either neither did we do an official... um bet on the Celta versus Osasuna.
Mikey Morales: um or We didn't do an official bet on Alavis versus Villa Real or Leipzig versus Borussia Mönchengladbach game, but We did talk about what were some things we were expecting going into this game, into these games. So we'll talk a little bit about that. Then we'll introduce a new category today. It's called the team building profile. And we begin with Barcelona and the question of how.
Mikey Morales: how to back or really oppose barcelona on the market line here so we have them and in two Two match days, Thursday match days. and I think this is a really good team to be able to identify what are the ways that we can bet for Barcelona that they've proven so far and from their last years. um
Mikey Morales: bed ink consistency and Just... There. versatility in goal of making goals, but also. ways that we can fade Barcelona.
Mikey Morales: So let's let's audit. I'm excited for this So our official board here we have as Barcelona, again, a minus one and a half versus Athletic. They'll bow. on a half stake for what we listed as our ticket came out to minus 20 120 um and the result we got was ah exactly almost on the dot barcelona 2 -0 um and again in the 82nd minute
Mikey Morales: against athletic which gave us approximately a 0 .42 profit. for. um R. our unit profit for that first game and then we have coventry versus a whole um under two and a half we found in a market of plus 100 on multiple sports but uh our money uh
Mikey Morales: sports books but i found it on bet365 here in the states um i found it And I put it for a half a unit and got the the result was of course hell whole city with the 1 -0 win against Coventry away with a positive of a 0 .5.
Mikey Morales: 0 .50 unit um add -on there too. And then we had a Juventus versus Parma. Both teams to score a no. I found this a very early on in the week on Monday before. The week started at a minus 134. I know from what people have told me that minus 134 went away very quickly. um but if you were managing to find that or maybe with a profit boost that you found the week We had.
Mikey Morales: of half unit on that and the result came out to Juventus 2 -0 win. uh margin there of like like we had predicted both teams to score no with a profit if we got the minus 134 of a plus the... 37 unit so that adds up our total of a plus 129 unit again we might have not got these exact odds if we to put it our
Mikey Morales: our bets in for maybe a better um odds or maybe even a worse one but The good thing is we both, we got to win ultimately. a three um Three wins. But again, we're not going to like. kind of just be able to, I don't know what the opposite of sulk is, but we're not just going to sit in our wins, but we're going to really identify what are the things that really We got right. What are the things that we.
Mikey Morales: Maybe the discipline that we need to focus on and correct here. because we're loading this we're getting this all as information here so the board was perfect on results the feature audit asks us whether the reasoning deserve the same description
Mikey Morales: So Barcelona, minus one and a half, needed a late second goal at the 82nd minute, but the underlying match was far less fragile than that. time suggests right there so that's the first thing we're going to focus on is our featured audit match of Barcelona versus Athletic Club.
Mikey Morales: So. If we saw the but of the... market we had seen was Barcelona minus one and a half. um And that was to win my over. two goals or by two goals or more. We put a stake of half a unit. we've a research price that we found we're looking for was a a minus 105.
Mikey Morales: The listed one I had put was a minus 20 that I ultimately found on Fanatics and our boundary. which is, I think, the most important part of this was we found was at minus 120. We didn't want to bet over.
Mikey Morales: um or We lost that edge at a minus 120, so we were able to to thankfully find it. And our projected score was Barcelona 3 -1 win with our our edge score being a 7 -3.
Mikey Morales: 7 .3 out of 10. Again, when we look at what we're going to be betting here, we have to look at the availability get gate. That's something that we identified in one of our first Monday audits was We had to look on who were the team the players that were can actually be playing if we were gonna it's worth taking the bet No. or who are some players that if they decide if maybe coach decides that they're going to be. ready and fit for the game.
Mikey Morales: It's a go if they're not. it's a no -go so something that we identified was if laminium all played also we identified if barcelona retain a strong attacking lineup right this is the time where There's some games in a row for La Liga that are. Back -to -back matches, Barcelona play on Monday. And so we wanted to see what the the lineup would be. Also, Yuri Berechichi for... athletic club, he was going to be unavailable. So that was going to be pretty consistent there.
Mikey Morales: So original thesis was that we were saying that. Something that... to identify was The athletic is going to be pretty. They're... threat was not going to be super strong was something we were going up against because the 3 -1 loss was pretty um
Mikey Morales: against Sevilla was not accurate to how they played in that match. They really showed that they can even down -to -man play in that game. So we wanted to test that. We weren't saying that that's maybe not, that's a misconstrued aspect of of the first two matches for Athletic Club. So something that really we rested upon in this match going into our thesis that is that Barcelona could repeatedly attack Athletic's replacement on left back. We didn't know the name. We thought it was going to be Boario.
Mikey Morales: Wait. I always start to say his name, Boiru. But we... Got that not accurate on who actually was going to be at the left back for Athletic Club. Rafinha's movement, something that we talked about was being the false nine and the runner for, of course, for Barcelona. Again, the part we Barcelona's counter -press.
Mikey Morales: being a thing that prevented the Nika brothers from attacking the high line. That's something that we had predicted. And then something that, again, main possession of danger for what we had put as a minus one and a half was that if Athletic escaped the first pressure and the William brothers create a transition in the high line that Barcelona really rely on, that was going to be a really difficult thing for for us to get a minus one and a half for us. Again, set pieces or one away goal. Turns out likely Barcelona went into it with one goal. margin there.
Mikey Morales: So. That's something that was a worry there. Available. So what we got. As the gate really passed for us, the means started. Barcelona had a really strong line. yuri remained out with the red card.
Mikey Morales: But the thing we didn't know was that. There's going to be a correction on who is going to be starting in the left back. where dma uh borrow wasn't gonna start and left back but a new person and i love his last name luis gene sounds like a a female, um southern mississippi like name but johan johan nico Luis Sheen started at left back for Athletic Club, and he played actually pretty good. Borrero entered into the 70th minute ultimately, but...
Mikey Morales: That's something we didn't predict for it. Something we were. Again, time and time again, we talk about is the first 20 minutes of. the match it says not everything about the game that's going to happen but it does give us a really good taste of what this FR bet is going to be.
Mikey Morales: either. very helpful or something that's That's going to be a danger for our bat. Something we identified pretty early on is Barcelona could produce.
Mikey Morales: a lot of attacking threats they recorded in the first 20 minutes three really good attempts the first one being an eric garcia with the header that ultimately ended wide gordon and gave Lamine a chance down on the right. And then Lamine also forced a strong stop from Unai Simon, which is kind of the theme of this game. The stop in the 18th minute. So athletic. Briefly escaped in transition at times, but Joan Garcia really showed up and as that kind of sweeper -keeper, making sure that the high line can be really protected there.
Mikey Morales: So the game developed after the 20th minute of Rafinha hitting the post in the opening before the opening goal. And Ben Pedri found Rafinha through the lines in the 37th minute. This really opened up a lot of things. But.
Mikey Morales: What it didn't open up was...
Mikey Morales: when I see Mon's ability to stop. lamin it felt like it was a a mission it felt like they were like training maybe for the world cup again um in training camp but lamin hit the the underside of the bar early in the second half and this is the theme of this game is so many chances for barcelona to score they had i believe a 3 .9 expected goal margin here but sim simone really showed why he's the starting goalkeeper for Spain and why he only allowed one goal in the whole tournament. He just prevented the second goal. We could have had this minus one and a half long ago. It sat it ended up happening in the 82nd minute with Adeyemi crossing and Laporta mishandling the ball and Firmino ultimately getting that very, very easy kind of just sweep up there.
Mikey Morales: so What the read got right was Barcelona really sustained pressure rather than merely holding empty possession. it also showed the athletic never really recorded they never recorded a a shot on target So it showed that.
Mikey Morales: Again, if Barcelona's defense can stop the Niko brothers that There wouldn't be much of a threat. Barcelona's counter -press really limited the William brothers. Athletic's compactness really... It did not stop Barcelona from producing nearly almost four expected goals here.
Mikey Morales: The 2 -0 score really underestimates what we predicted, and but we got what like we got at the end of the day for Barcelona, which we'll talk about at the end when we took...
Mikey Morales: look at the barcelona profile is how to bet for barcelona and how to not not get kind of stuck here on maybe things ways that um the money line is showing it's not a guaranteed um aspect that the sportsbooker can just give it to you that easy.
Mikey Morales: So what needs correction here? That's the part of the audit that's really important. The first part is that Lamine versus the left back was really overstated. The left back, Johan Echo, really played a pretty good match. Lamine, still, he didn't have the sad face or the mean face that he had. I don't know if it was because he had heard that his best friend, Alejandro Balde, was going to be moving. Maybe he found out that he's actually going to be staying. We don't know yet. This is still... it's as the time of recording is still Sunday. so
Mikey Morales: The deadline can change a lot of this. But. He he looked happier. Hey. Play lights out. Unai Simon just really had his number here.
Mikey Morales: Something that needs correction is the first goal came through Pedri and Rafinha centrally. And that's something that we didn't necessarily predict. it We predicted it to come from Lamine. The cover came through Laporte's...
Mikey Morales: late error right there. And so that's something that like we need to, I guess we don't necessarily need to focus on, but it's something that we.
Mikey Morales: didn't get right that we thought that it would become a very easy in through lamine heavy kind of way of getting the goals a better conclusion for us to identify is that the broad The board the broad mismatch and match control thesis was excellent. The specific route used to explain it, though, was only partially perfect. or partially correct.
Mikey Morales: So the market. and price audit here. That's it's a pretty important important part for us.
Mikey Morales: The money line for Barcelona we knew was going to be too expensive. expensive The handicap required. the required the dominance to become a margin. That is exactly what we got here in this match. We found that... that the DraftKings reference we found was a minus one at approximately a plus 100, closed around a minus 165. So it showed that the a lot of the... them. market was really looking at this variance and what we actually got was a minus 120 thankfully you almost found in the middle there it was in inside that stated boundary that we had and we got ultimately if we put it out of my minus 120 boundary and we got that it was a plus 42.
Mikey Morales: 0 .42 units um so our final grade here we're gonna say his official result was of course a win tactile read was a was strong our specific matchup mechanism was a mixed pro makes positive.
Mikey Morales: And our market selection was strong here. Strong. discipline if we kept it at a minus 120 or greater. um and overall we got an a minus for this so barcelona's cover came late but the control was present almost for the opposite.
Mikey Morales: for the opening whistle from the opening whistle here. Again, Coventry against Hull. gave us the reverse timing pattern. the Underline aspected.
Mikey Morales: The match stayed. on the under pretty comfortably for us for most of the afternoon. But in the last about 10 minutes, I should say probably 20 minutes of the match. of the game the branch really appeared in the in like of a dangerous score state for us. for I should say for whole city.
Mikey Morales: So let's go into this. So, Coventry versus... whole city. Hey. two promoted teams that are coming into this Premier League.
Mikey Morales: In a lot of ways, people can say is this is a six point outcome for any winner in this game. It was going to be ah a really dogfight match in this match. Again, both teams have a very... um a tactical way of kind of holding the that defensive line against teams that are going to be a lot better than them But in this match, it's a very unique one to have a very more so open match when it comes to.
Mikey Morales: to The Premier League matchup they played each other before and those previous matches they went under three and a half for both both games And so we had, again, under two and a half goals, half a unit here. And our research price we found pre -recorded price was plus 100. Our boundary here was at minus 105. And thankfully, on I found this plus 100 on bet 365 as well. um
Mikey Morales: And. The... projected score we had here was coventry to win one zero but that's the that's the beauty of honor two and a half is that we don't have to get the projected score right we have to um
Mikey Morales: we got to get the We have some more leverage there. So our edge score was a 7 .4 out of 10. Our original thesis when we were coming into talking about this match was we thought that Coventry would control possession and territory. We also thought Hull's narrow back five would try to protect central space there.
Mikey Morales: Again, their back five is one that's very defense -oriented. we really thought Coventry would rely on was Honestly, finding crosses, corners, um really finding the recoveries of those blocked shots, and then really limiting clear central chances for Holt to come in in the counterattack.
Mikey Morales: So what we found was Hull's main route, or we thought would be Hull's main route, was the direct play towards McBurney. which is one of my favorite is is quickly becoming one of my favorite players in the premier league. um and hit
Mikey Morales: and wholesome. journey to stay into the prim um we thought the second balls would and set pieces they scored two goals against manchester united through set pieces so we thought that was going to be the way for whole set edict. to get a point here.
Mikey Morales: Um, And our biggest danger to the under two and a half was if defensive absences what weakened Hull City in their starting 11. Also, if Coventry use an aggressive two striker shape, again, they were playing without Hashi right here.
Mikey Morales: But if they came out kind of. um just showing a very attacking mindset attack forward starting 11 that could be would have been dangerous for two under two and a half and also if it was early goal by whole city um It forced Coventry into a sustained kind of pressure throughout a longer period of time of the game.
Mikey Morales: So what finally what happened was the gate that. that fully passed was that we saw that Hall started Coyle, Ajayi, Egan, Mendy, Giles as a true back five. it's kind of what we predicted.
Mikey Morales: But... Ajay and Mehdi. Or Coventry used a 4 -2 -3 -1 with... ah Their new signing I won when I who's coming from I believe for Nottingham Forest alone up front hammer hammer began began on the bench and entered in the 71st minute so this was the intended scratch structural matchup that we had predicted minus the two goal two strikers in front. So our first 20 minute.
Mikey Morales: Um. What we found there was that Coventry produced four early attempts. See? It's really did not establish repeatable central access into that into all cities. ah defense.
Mikey Morales: Awanyani's effort blocked from the left side of the box.
Mikey Morales: created maybe some scare for the whole city. Chuanani missed from outside the area. Rudani had another effort blocked. So this was a lot of, there's chances for that kind of second chance, almost the rebound for both teams, but primarily for Coventry in the and in the game. Hull recorded no attempts during the opening 20 minutes. So the early verdict was Coventry's territory was confirmed. Hull City's compactness was confirmed and low event chance quality was confirmed.
Mikey Morales: We had seen that Holt are very used to, with their five men at the back, having less possession. And that's what ended up happening. They only had about 31 .3%.
Mikey Morales: um Um, possession here in this match coventry attempted 34 crosses only had seven um of those crosses completed this is a very cross -oriented way of attacking five shots were blocked um both teams missed one um classified big chance that came in my opinion from miller in the 72nd minute as well as coventry um early in the the first of the 38th minute so that was one to um
Mikey Morales: Zolakis made an important save from Manu. I knew it. In the 38th minute, the game reached halftime 0 -0. so and What ended up happening was.
Mikey Morales: again we something we didn't look or identify was how strong coal cities A counterattack could be. Miller had a chance in the 74th minute. He missed that very close chance there. I knew it right there. The tides were very changing, like changing in a lot of ways for Hull City in the counterattack. They felt more confident. I think Miller had something to prove in that last missed shot. And in the 82nd minute, Hull punished Coventry on the exact late counter route identified. that we identified there. So what the read got, right?
Mikey Morales: was that possession and act. the attacking control were separately correct. Right. correct Separated correctly. Coventry had possession, but that they have dominance, that were they able to do something with it? That's the theme in a lot of ways for the, not just the Premier League, but the way maybe the post Pep Guardiola era is actually.
Mikey Morales: um Opposed? Prep Cardiola. um soccer era. Is going is that teams don't necessarily need to have possession to win games they don't have to have dominance of of the ball to actually win games again
Mikey Morales: Coventry's territorial repeatedly... Territory repeatedly became crosses rather than central combinations. Those are two different things, two things that we got right there. Holes back five protected the box very well. McBurney later confirmed.
Mikey Morales: that holds expected coventry to hold the ball and trusted their defenders against crosses the decisive goal came through holes transition route not sustained away possession the under did not depend on either team finishing a string of of mischances mischance um opportunities and our restraint of what. We saw there, what we didn't see, right, was that Coventry still created one genuine first half chance. We also didn't see that Hull produced two dangerous late transitions, and the projected Coventry win was wrong, ultimately. But... Thankfully, the under thesis was strong. And this was a good example of the market expression being cleaner than the completed score for score forecast. We have more leg room there. So our market and price audit is if we got a plus 100 at bet three or not at bet 365 necessarily, but if we got a plus 100. We ended up getting a plus. point. five fifty um
Mikey Morales: total units here. um And... ah Something that I think I would grade as official winners. Right. is Our tactical read is strong. Our market selection was really strong strong if we stayed disciplined on that plus 100 or at least a minus 105. Um,
Mikey Morales: boundary and our suggested overall process was, ah I would say, a B minus, not an A minus. There were still things that we didn't get right. the imperfect, exact score.
Mikey Morales: Good result not the right um Score prediction we had but ultimately we won the vet here So Coventry Hole showed.
Mikey Morales: that the cleanest bet did not require us to predict the winner correctly. Juventus -Barma made the same point in another form. Juventus did eventually win but by two. But both teams to score, no, had already isolated the mo the more dependable part of the matchup. Why the Padma could create enough score to score at all here.
Mikey Morales: So that brings us into our last supporting audit B from Thursdays. review our Thursday show. this is one of the the bets out of the three for us that it was hard to find the boundary but we did set a boundary for this of being a pass at a minus 146 or worse I was able to find a minus 145
Mikey Morales: A listed price I found actually was one thirty minus on FanDuel, but that was a very early on into the market, which I had seen that out of all the three, this was the one that had the most. um The quickest shift in the market, we put a half unit. um on on this bet. So I feed.
Mikey Morales: you also We had a projected score of Juventus winning 2 -0. And our edge score was 7 .4 out of 10 coming into this. Our thesis over this match was that...
Mikey Morales: really focusing on if barma's scoring probability would be able to match up to juventus team that is changing in a lot of ways has a lot of adjustments as you can tell in one finding out that they're one of the best attacking players in yield this has happened against surgery a lot of players coming out are not playing in this are being even involved in the starting 11 or bench because of potential transfer rumors
Mikey Morales: um And then and a goalkeeper that just got signed on loan in Vicario that this is now in the starting lineup. So there's a lot of changes. so our main danger was that if bottom up bypass the first kind of press, that's bad news for us. Torrey, if Torrey receives facing goal behind the fullbacks, that. Ah.
Mikey Morales: receives yeah facing goal behind the fullbacks that's ah a worry for us as well and then also just one transition a defensive mistake is all it takes for parma to get a goal in here um so our What we had.
Mikey Morales: Um, What passed was Vicario started in goal. Kalulu, Bremer, Lukumi, and Selick, who are two signings, new signings for Juventus, formed a pretty credible back line, even though there was, again, like we said, new pieces coming into this Juventus team. One that I think would be interesting to do a profile on, on how to bet for or against Juventus coming into these next weeks as we get the starting 11. a little bit more solidified.
Mikey Morales: It was sp was mostly focusing on Parma, not necessarily on Juventus. Parma started Torre, Lontani, Britski, and Torre and Lontani combined for zero shots before before both were substituted ultimately at the end of this game.
Mikey Morales: Our first 20 minute audit was Juventus produced two low value efforts in the eighth and the eighth and the 19th minute. Bottom only had one only attempted. um
Mikey Morales: once but it was blocked with a very easy save for i don't even think it had to be technically considered a saver of vicario so shots on target were zero zero in the first 20 minutes this was a very green flag for our prediction approximately shot level expected goals through 20 minutes was 0 .07 for juventus and 0 .06 for for barma so if i would have seen that as a live A live bet.
Mikey Morales: That would have ah probably might been like a minus 400 or minus 600 at that point. But it would have showed me that it was. pretty confirmed at this point. um I wish I shouldn't say confirm, but it would be. a a very green flag for us.
Mikey Morales: so How much this match developed? The match remained, again, 0 -0 at halftime, not just 0 -0 in the first 20 minutes, but ultimately in the first 45. Juventus' pressure was more repetitive than than penetrative. And what I mean by that was that it kept going, kept going, kept going, but it didn't necessarily...
Mikey Morales: go into maybe um in the box the box touches were not as as much as um Maybe we would have thought.
Mikey Morales: um nico gonzalez hit the post recovered the rebound and and scored with help with help from uh deflection in the 62th minute um corby saved his first dangerous effort but a little bit before that barma's most dangerous spell came immediately after conceding which usually i feel like tends to happen there's a substitute for david romero forced multiple vicario saves which I think was ah ultimately a really...
Mikey Morales: should have He probably should have started in this game. Cope Miners entered late after Cambiasso's entry, which we have, I think, no no news on so far. He scored in the 80th minute for loateel's pass or from pass. And then, yeah, like we said, the exact... 2 -0 projection as we... Um,
Mikey Morales: as we had thought. It has ended a match with Juventus having a 58 % possession, with Guatemala having a 42 % possession. But again, this this is a changing soccer.
Mikey Morales: um dynamics tactically for a lot of european teams and so possession doesn't necessarily say everything so We also saw expected goals was ultimately for Juventus 1 .69 and then Parma 0 .22. So what the read got right here was that Parma created almost no pre.
Mikey Morales: ah shot chances qualities Torre never came became became the transition point that we feared would happen in our original report. Juventus controlled second balls and overall territory. Again, maybe not necessarily but really repetitive. which is what matters in both teams to score a note, is that the other team has the ball more.
Mikey Morales: Both teams scored no one ultimately, and the market choice isolated the stronger part of the analysis. Some necessary restraints when we look at this. from our audit is that Parma's 0 .22 expected goals became approximately 0 .86 expected goals on target. That distinction matters because the chance volume and locations were weak.
Mikey Morales: But the attempts that reached goals still required Ficaro to make real saves. The clean sheet was strong a strong process result, not an effortless one though. Juventus did not reach the projected 65 % possession like we had thought. Their attack required bench intervention to break the match open.
Mikey Morales: so If you put a minus 134 at FanDuel. or anywhere that you would have find a minus 134 the profit would have ah approximately been at zero
Mikey Morales: point thirty seven units. So we achieved that. Our final grade was our tactic read was strong. Our market selection was strong. Our price discipline was strong. If we hit the minus 134 or. like you said or with our boundary of i believe it's minus 156 and then a suggested overall price we got i put was a minus ah a minus because one a good read good market and we predicted um the...
Mikey Morales: the two zeros outcome. And it really was protected by a real goalkeeper. goalkeeping in vicario's um saves there in in this match so the official board gave us three wins which was awesome for us but the radar and watch list exists for a different reason and That's what we're going to go next. They did not add. or They did not add or when or... or
Mikey Morales: wins or losses. They tell us which team identities are becoming more credible. and which directional instincts need to be corrected before they reach the official board.
Mikey Morales: So this is the Radar Watchlist Audit. Let's get into it. very briefly briefly and as i say that it's very briefly because none of these are games i i will say as a disclaimer for anybody watching um this show this episode in our monday audit we did not make official bets but we made we we had them on the radar of matches when the first one was osasuna um versus santa vico um
Mikey Morales: I believe it was 0 -2. It could have been a 1 -2 ultimately, but the whole game... um The game ended 1 -2 for Osasuna. The original question. um We had here was.
Mikey Morales: What we had originally predicted was if Celta could control possession without creating their clear central chances, that would be helpful for Celta. If Osasuna could compress schedule. their compressed schedule to reduce their ambition or intensity that would be also helpful for celta
Mikey Morales: So. The first half evidence we found was Celta had a 62. percent possession of the game. Celta produced only one shot. The first half expected goals were approximately a 0 .6 to 0 .13 XG. Iago Aspas scored from outside the box in the 14th minute.
Mikey Morales: Now, this just goes to show that the first 20 minutes doesn't say the whole everything about the game and how it's going to go down. So some interruptions of that prediction was that Marcos Alonso was sent off in the 51st minute, something you cannot.
Mikey Morales: As any sports better, especially for soccer knows red cards. change everything. Osasuna equalized three minutes later. Um, and Budimir converted a penalty in the 64th, which ultimately made this game a one to two for Osasuna score.
Mikey Morales: So the verdict is that sterile Celta territory period before the red card So we can't necessarily blame the red car. totally on Celta's outcome. Osasuna's schedule did not visibly suppress them, but again, the red card, it changes everything. So our label was correct on opening diagnosis, our match state our interruption, but we didn't have any. any recorded credit into this match because we didn't play any official bet.
Mikey Morales: Another game we had we talked about was Crystal Palace versus Manchester, which ended Crystal Palace 1, Manchester City 4. Questions that we had about this game was if City would turn possession into central chances. again is that Possession mean dominance and this dominance mean victory.
Mikey Morales: Or would individual quality disguise unresolved buildup and transition problems, which maybe can be resolved in Manchester's signings that we have as of right now in Cody Gakbo, but also... That can be changing too as as the transfer deadline comes to an end this Tuesday.
Mikey Morales: Some opening evidence was Palace created three early attempts in two corners. City answered with central box access during a 7th minute cornered scramble here, and Holland scored with a header in the 17th minute.
Mikey Morales: So the full match evidence we had was. City held 72 .3 possessions. It was a very City -dominant outcome. And they led expected goals with 2 .21 versus a 0 .66 in Crystal Palace. And silly City led the shots on target by a 9 -1 margin. So City really produced the 35 penalty area touches.
Mikey Morales: This was a pretty dominant score. Something that we can identify is that City looks substantially more functional than against Bournemouth.
Mikey Morales: And with the changing of so many of so much of the key pieces of Manchester City. Not just the coach, but and not just the midfield anymore, but in a lot of ways, the entire team, um besides Holland, I should would say has changed. And that doesn't look too much different with Palace. Palace looks like a lot of transitions happening there, too.
Mikey Morales: um So we didn't buy any wager here. um Our suggested rate or grade was a a B minus. and Lastly, we have Alaves 1, Villarreal 0. We had a Villarreal holding 76 % possession. percent possession Again, it was something that we had on our show on Thursday was that if does possession mean victory? And here we saw that that was not the case for Villarreal. Villarreal led also 19.
Mikey Morales: to nine expected goals or shots on target, or just not shots on target, but shots, I should say, with goal XG of 1 .40 at two LFSs, 0 .81. But all of us still created the match's only classified big chance and ultimately goal. Villarreal reached touches in the box and completed 21 crosses, but they also had six shots blocked. Boye scored after a quick switch and cut back in the 31st minute. And this really...
Mikey Morales: showed that this was a really good read for our watch list with goalkeeper and woodwork caution there to um ultimately in this game. So.
Mikey Morales: So. The observation board gives us useful corrections without changing the official record. Now we can grade the framework itself, not by averaging out the final scores, but by asking which parts of the analysis repeatedly explain the dangerous moments.
Mikey Morales: So now this brings us to our process report card, which will go on briefly. So we identified the matchup identification we had was ah ultimately an A -. There were some strong suits of Barcelona. I'm reading that Barcelona with sustained pressure against athletics transitions. We also had correctly.
Mikey Morales: Viewed that hole was going to be forcing central Coventry's possession towards crosses Juventus also we predicted would be isolating bottom us starting Attack, we also predicted United would be producing repeatable combinations after halftime We also which we didn't talked about ah was Freiburg. We had to predicted that Freiburg would be using competitive continuity without carrying visible fatigue from their midweek matchup in the Conference League. And as well as...
Mikey Morales: Something that we had identified was also Villareal controlling territory without really creating classified big chances. some corrections here again was that city were functional.
Mikey Morales: were more functional than we had predicted against Palace. we also The other unit of the other Manchester, we had not really had... um
Mikey Morales: seeing how United's attacking upgrade did not create a defensive controllable upgrade here. And Freiburg's margin must be opponent -adjusted for Bremen. their loss um and li late loss of of stage and incomplete cohesion ultimately for um for bremen our green game script accuracy we put it a minus we predicted barcelona would have a dominant territory and chances controlled appeared and they also that would have a high very high um
Mikey Morales: overall pressure in the counter press. We also predicted for Coventry having a low event territorial territorial game and late hole transition would be the exact away danger. And we also for the Juventus bot map.
Mikey Morales: predicted that there would be controlled but repetitive first half possession for Juventus and that's not necessarily penetrative but We also focused on bottom -out start ears. being isolated as a tell on if that would be a green light for our bet of both teams score being no.
Mikey Morales: Our market selection, I put S at an A, ultimately. we chose We didn't choose Barcelona's money line. We didn't even choose Barcelona.
Mikey Morales: uh minus 0 .5 we chose ah a barcelona minus one and a half with that which i feel is a very good read on ultimately So... not just Barcelona as a whole against Athletic Club tactically, but also, which is a big part of the European soccer edge, is finding just that, an edge. We avoided unusable, expensive money line, and we also require dominance to become margin.
Mikey Morales: Coventry, hole under. We did not require predicting the winner correctly, which you had ultimately. We had predicted wrong, but it gave us leeway. And it was a plus money, plus 100. And then Juventus bottom of both teams to score. No, did not require Juventus to score the late second goal. um we predicted the score right but I think that's not where we wanted to find the edge. So the main lesson is the best mark is the one attached the most dependable part of. the score soccer read.
Mikey Morales: The invalidation trickers was the Barcelona's early transition escape appeared once. once but did not repeat, which ultimately didn't happen, thankfully. uh coventry's central access remained limited and um the game never really meaning
Mikey Morales: meaningfully broke. And then for Juventus is if Padma's dangerous burst after 1 -0 was the clearest clean sheet warning, which didn't happen thankfully. So a reminder is invalidation signals are audit tools, not automatic live bets.
Mikey Morales: So our price discipline was pretty coherent here. I won't go any further in there. It just was really helpful. And some really quick weekend awards. It was our best underlying official read.
Mikey Morales: had to be Barcelona minus one and a half, which we got it. in a very good minus 120. I don't know if we'll find that again, if I'm being honest. Maybe there are some slumps for Barcelona. Bye.
Mikey Morales: We'll talk about that a little bit more of what's the read for Barcelona. Our cleanest market line, market isolation, we found was Juventus, Parma. Both teams are scoping no. I feel like that was like very in hindsight. It's 2020, but very obvious read. Our cleanest game script read was, again, Coventry versus Hull in under two and a half, which happened very smoothly in the way we thought it would. The most useful radar correction here is Manchester City structure was way further.
Mikey Morales: along than we expected, which is a helpful tell of what this city team is going to look like once it actually has its full pieces. um The most important Sunday split here is upgrading United's attack, withholding their defensive control trust.
Mikey Morales: They scored five goals, but they also... Had I believe Ipswich had it almost a 2 .2 XG in that match. The best schedule management evidence is Freiburg's continuity already from Thursday's match into coming into this match day on Thursday. The best non bet.
Mikey Morales: Tactical raid is Alaves forcing Villarreal's control outside the... the block and the strongest new system evidence was ah we didn't talk about it much but we didn't talk about all but Leipzig central chances created in that 3 -0 win and that was the most misleading thing about this week was Leipzig's 3 -0 win it looks big on paper but Borussia Mönchengladbach still created a lot of meaningful possession and danger in this match So.
Mikey Morales: Here we have our framework adjustments. This is a helpful piece before choosing a market. Complete this sentence. this is going to be our our check here the most dependable part of my read is why this is is We can ask ourselves, does the wager require anything beyond that claim? Am I asking the favorite to win or to win by a margin? And am I asking both teams to create only one?
Mikey Morales: Am I using a side market when the edge is really about scoring probability? And can the bet win even if my exact score match winner is wrong?
Mikey Morales: The weekend's examples is Coventry's projected winner was wrong, but the underthesis was right. Juventus' second goal was late. Both teams to score did not need it, and Barcelona's exact scoring route was imperfect. The margin was supported by the full match ultimately. Manchester United showed that the attacking expression and match control expression can move in opposite directions.
Mikey Morales: So the market expression text leads naturally into the new category. the bar so Barcelona have now appeared in two officially on the board twice in two different markets in our show.
Mikey Morales: that That makes them the first and maybe the best candidates for it for profiling not profiling for profiling the team. um which i love to do not because the two matches created certainty but because they already showed why betting a a dominant favorite requires more thought than just clicking the money line. button there.
Mikey Morales: So let's get into our first. inaugural team betting. profile. The most important aspect of this Barcelona profile is noticing that it is a big badge. So we're not going to.
Mikey Morales: Bet the badge. We're going to bet the expression. You never bet. what Barcelona are actually showing us and what they have shown us and what they have shown us in the 2025 to 2026 season that they finished ultimately winning La Liga, but they finished with 94 points, 95 league goals, two points, that's 2 .5 per match, a perfect nine. um
Mikey Morales: Oh. and zero home league record, not not losing at home. ah Home is a little vague with the asterisk that they didn't play at the Camp Nou every game last season. Now they do get to do that.
Mikey Morales: That's been keep in mind 57 home goals and only 10 conceded they owe Their over 2 .5 goals in how were hit in 28 of their 38 league matches, and both teams to score.
Mikey Morales: score in 22 out of 38 they still managed to keep 15 clean sheets which is it was a very interesting kind of um opposing maybe stats about those things important distinction here is that those are hit rates not proof of probability That's the key there. They do not use one consistent closing price. Use that or...
Mikey Morales: Use them as a baseline, not as a betting system. So our current 2026 to 2027 evidence is going to be only based off of these last two La Liga matches and what they've shown. what they're what they've shown and maybe what they will show. They did sign today, Gabriel Jesus. We don't know if he will be a starter to replacing. um Rafinha and I shouldn't say we're replacing but moving Rafinha back in the left wing or if he's gonna be at maybe a ah super sub as maybe my
Mikey Morales: my One of my favorite players, Javier Chicharito Hernandez, was for Manchester United. Two league matches, two wins, seven goals in these two games. Zero conceded.
Mikey Morales: That's a combined production of 8 .04 XG with 33 shots, 17 shots on target, and 13 big chances for Barcelona. Opponents combined for zero goals, but 0 .97 XG.
Mikey Morales: in 12 shots, only two shots on target. Joanne hasn't had to. had to run sprints back and forth into that high line. too much, thankfully. Seven goals from ah from about eight expected goals is a really good stat. The attack has not merely relied on unsustainably.
Mikey Morales: on unsustainable finishing. Rafinha in the number nine has showed that he can score so the chance quality broadly supports the scoring output Two different forms of dominance here, though. The first game, LCH 5 -0, only 54 possession. that's ah That's a different outcome to the last game against Athletic Club in 70 % possession. Also, approximately four. point three XG to a three point nine XG.
Mikey Morales: And the first being Elche and the second being Athletic. So the damage was, it really came through pressing, turnovers, direct transition attacks, and bench depth for Elche. A lot of players came in from from the bench in Pedri. Wow.
Mikey Morales: and Anthony Gordon making those goals in the second half against Elche. And then in this game versus Athletic Club, the danger came through different ways. Sustained territory again, but also repeated box access. Counter -pressing was very strong in this game, and the late depth against the tiring block was the same outcome or the same rationale from the first game.
Mikey Morales: So. If we look at some of these already consistencies, where are the recordists for Barcelona? They're 2 -0 on Barcelona money line, of course. The minus one and a half is their 2 -0.
Mikey Morales: um minus two and a half they didn't get to this point so they're one and one um some other aspects to see is both teams to score if you would have gone in the first the first two games they're two and oh on this and the barcelona's first half money line they are also two and oh and also but barcelona to score in both halves is two and oh so these are helpful reads that we have pretty early on
Mikey Morales: How to back Barcelona? That's the question. do not make the very easy one click thoughtless. um Bet. in just pressing on that money line button for Barcelona because they've won and they've won by a big margin. um That's not what the show is about. The Edge is about finding the ways to get. pass the sports book. So the preferred A handicap.
Mikey Morales: is when we see that the attacking lineup is going to be strong. that If we see that the game that Barcelona are bringing in may be a Rafinha in the middle, Lamine on the right, and maybe Anthony Gordon on the left.
Mikey Morales: I think that's a pretty strong attacking lineup. If we see that there is maybe... Lameen's going to be on bench. We don't know if that's going to be a trend. We haven't seen it yet, but. That's maybe not when we hit the handicap. The opponents cannot consistently escape the counter press. That's something we got to know and who the Barcelona are going to go. go up again to know if we hit the handicap. If we prefer the handicap, will we see that Barcelona project to sustain pressure rather than merely just win.
Mikey Morales: That's when we we hit that money line for Barcelona. When we prefer to hit the team total. the team total, it's when the opponents intend to play the game. If the opponents tend to show up and want to compete here, the team total looks strong for Barca. That means they have to if they go a tie, they have to keep scoring. If they go down also in the game, they have to keep scoring. So space exists behind advanced wide players or midfielders is a really big green flag for team totals. um
Mikey Morales: to bet team totals for Barca. If Barcelona have several independent scoring routes here for the game, the team they play against, then that's also a big helpful tell for team totals. Here in this game, we found that the the outlet we had projected was going to be La Minamont with a weaker point on the left back. um and ultimately didn't end up happening but we probably should have more than two goals Something to monitor is monitoring timing markets when early lineup supports aggressive.
Mikey Morales: pressure. First half money line. scoring in both halves. Do not set permanent thresholds for two matches here. It's very early on. but still helpful to look at this profile so when do we fade Barcelona.
Mikey Morales: How do we bet against Barca? The credible fate is rarely the bonnet money line. Consider. ah Consider opponents on a plus two or a plus 225 only when Barcelona rotates heavily.
Mikey Morales: We see that maybe bars are coming into this game. Like maybe even like now we can make a good like a example of this is that they barcelona played on thursday Let me see, quick maths.
Mikey Morales: They have four days. This isn't necessarily the the least amount of time, but they have four days to play, and they're playing against Rayo Vallecano. I don't necessarily, let's see if rio play if they're playing Rayo away.
Mikey Morales: Um, And i'm like I'm not making an official... bat here. um They're playing Rio at home. So that would be a little bit. different, I will be honest, if Ryo was playing at home.
Mikey Morales: but historically they have not played against rio and got this plus two um So. It'd be something to consider here. Barcelona, if they face schedule compression is again, something that we highlighted here, but also if the market price is another automatic blowout here. That's when we go and we get that plus two or plus 225.
Mikey Morales: Because what we're betting here isn't that if the other team's going to win, not even if the other team's going to like lose by a goal. and not If the team loses by two goals, we still win this. So this is very helpful for us. Consider an inflated under only when the chance environment supports it. Don't call athletic Barcelona an easy under process. Barcelona generated nearly four expected goals here. Simon made eight saves. Barcelona hit the woodwork twice. so
Mikey Morales: Do not fade Barcelona simply because they're due to regress that's we're not going to do that here it's not fun that's not a right edge
Mikey Morales: So a provisional betting label here is that they're an elite chance generators. They're multiple methods of domination for Barca. They have early improvement in chance control. They usually and are an overpriced money line, have an overpriced money line. So I wouldn't suggest that. Best approach through opponent adjusted derivative markets here. The sample size warning is only two matches. The LJ game was accelerated by an early penalty for Barca. And then athletic.
Mikey Morales: also had Yuri Barichichikon, and then they had a debutant left back. So this is very early on, and so we don't want to create any narratives about the whole season based off of these two matches.
Mikey Morales: So for purpose, Barcelona should currently be treated as a derivative derivative market team. The question is really whether they are likely. They are the likely winner. The question should be is whether the opponents make the handicap or the team total or team market the cleanest expression and whether the price has already changed for us.
Mikey Morales: for all the all that dominance. The profile is promising after what, only two league matches, but it also remains provisional. So ultimately, we're going to end here with our evidence to carry into Thursday, which I'm very excited about.
Mikey Morales: So. Our highest priority Sunday labels is we found a big upgrade for
Mikey Morales: ah Manchester United's central chances. There are so many means i had memes I had seen on Uri Tillemans being like old and slow, but he really showed up this match. Not just him, but the trio of Fernandes, which is he was the Premier League Player of the Year, so it's not something new. But the Fernandes and Kobe Mainu relationship there is holding strong here in the second match. Also withholding rest defense and match control. trust after allowing 2 .01 was the xg goal uh for
Mikey Morales: for Ipswitch in that game. so it's Two feels like opposing things, but something helpful to put in. An upgrade is also for Freiburg and their schedule management. That's helpful to know that they can play.
Mikey Morales: Again, this is... a qualifying match in the Conference League, granted. But Freiburg is a very small team who've lost their best player in Mandani.
Mikey Morales: I think that's his name. I always confuse him and the mayor of of New York. I think it's Monzombie. I just called him Montani. Monzombie. They lost their best player.
Mikey Morales: But. They showed they can have some schedule management, which is pretty cool. It's really helpful for us when we're coming into. to seeing Freiburg on the weekend in the Bundesliga. The opponent adjustment there, too, is they won for one against Werder Bremen. Maybe he's not the best of teams.
Mikey Morales: Lazio? With... 2 -1 victory. We had predicted maybe another Lazio opponent. under Why not? in the first half. It didn't happen. The profile does not automatically create an undervalue always for Lazio. Genoa's second half equalizer route remained alive there.
Mikey Morales: So the official board carry forward is Barcelona upgrade to Sting. Chance creation and suppression across two different match types. Whole city, upgrade, compactness, cross, defense, and late transition threat. An upgrade for Juventus is upgrading that defensive control. Noob faces.
Mikey Morales: Same defensive though ah tactic and structure. that' so and It's going to be very helpful for Juventus. The one line observation labels is Manchester City, Central, Creation, Up. Transition protection not only not fully settled. Alaves compactness and counter clarity up. Goalkeeper dependence remains in the price. Leipzig central attacking creation. up clean sheet reliability, still provisional.
Mikey Morales: Celta's sterile opening remains relevant, and their post -red card evidence received limited weight there. So our closing aspects is if all three tickets were officially placed, we...
Mikey Morales: One on a plus 129 units. That's big for us guys. And we found the edge. We beat the sports book. this match date. in europe barcelona minus one and a half was the strongest underlying grade the exact left back mechanism was not so much the exact exact same rate but barca produced nearly four expected goals and allowed no shots on target coventry hole under two and a half was the cleanest game script win coventry controlled possession but didn't do much with it
Mikey Morales: Hull turned the counterattack into actual... danger And then they scored their goal, which ultimately would be either their game winner. Juventus versus Bodma, both teams to score no, was the cleanest market selection. Bodma only created a 0 .22 expected G, and the wager did not need Juventus to score that second goal. or even though
Mikey Morales: I should say even that first goal. The lesson is not simply that the bets won. It is that each market isolated the most dependable part of the soccer. rate So Sunday added the related warning. An attack can earn an upgrade without the team's match control earning the same.
Mikey Morales: Manchester United proved both sides of that sentence. And our first team betting profile gives us the next extension of that idea with Barcelona. Bet the expression, not merely the badge. On Thursday, we're going to take a... updated evidence back to the market and really find what we can find in our gaps here that the sportsbooks are looking at wrong. This is the European Soccer Edge, and I'll see you guys on the next show.
Mikey Morales: So before I go. i want i'd love to see you guys like and subscribe as you can see this is the first time seeing my face if you guys are now seeing this on youtube if you guys are also following from the Apple podcast, as well as from Spotify. Go ahead and also like and subscribe there. I'll see you guys on Thursday.
Mikey Morales: Have a great rest of your day guys.
