Transcript
Mikey Morales: Hey guys, and welcome to another episode of the European Soccer Ed Show. I'm your host Mikey Morales. Let's get into this Monday audit. This weekend, give us three very different official audits.
Mikey Morales: Manchester City won. Bournemouth's plus 125 survived as a half win because City only won by one goal. Udinese and Como finished 1 -1, exposing real weakness and are both teams to score no analysis. from thursday and barcelona scored five against up to really validating our team total position through pressing transition to attacks and overwhelming attacking depth
Mikey Morales: That gave us one strong read. One. Winning result with more of a fragile process and one legitimate myth for us. So we'll also revisit Brentford's destruction of Tottenham. Newcastle's transition threat. that really showed those two goals to tie it against Liverpool.
Mikey Morales: um And again, that's hard to just really... What? put it to Newcastle fans at the very last minute. And the warning. The warning sign hidden inside enters 4 -1 victory.
Mikey Morales: Then before we finish We'll turn towards Germany. And then... All right. The Bundesliga begins this Friday. The early question is how much weight we should give to the comp. the competitive evidence. of already produced in the Super Cup and the DFB Cup.
Mikey Morales: The purpose today is not to let the final score rewrite Thursday's analysis. it's to determine what we understand, what we missed, and what needs to change. So. Let's audit it.
Mikey Morales: Welcome to the European Soccer Edge. where we translate your... your soccer into tactical questions expected game scripts and accountable market decisions The edge score tells you how much I trust the analysis. The verdict tells you whether the available price makes the analysis worth betting.
Mikey Morales: On my days. Again, we separate the result. From the process. Let's begin with the official board here.
Mikey Morales: So... We have our official audit board here. We're going to look at the official position one. We put as Bournemouth plus 125. We put half unit stake officially on the show with the research price that one minus 108.
Mikey Morales: The actual ticket price that I found was a minus 113. I unfortunately did not find the minus 108 after looking at it. It looked like the the line went a little ahead. Um, So I...
Mikey Morales: Bet it at Bett Rivers. And it was Manchester 1, 2 -1. One goal defeat, like we said. ah ah a one portion pushes us a 1 .5 portion. Push is a win.
Mikey Morales: um And our official result was a half win with a minus. with a plus 125. um So approximately profit is a. At a minus 113 was. or want to which we had research price was a plus 0 .23 unit.
Mikey Morales: Our official position. here is Number two is Udinese. and come on. both teams to scores no with our stake being a half unit and our research price which i i found was Reacher price was minus 125, but the actual ticket I found was at minus 122. At FanDuel, our final score, unfortunately, was a 1 -1 draw. Official results was a loss for us which resulted in ah a minus half a unit
Mikey Morales: And our last position was Barcelona team total over two and a half. with a half unit stake. In our research price, we found... Out. Plus 108, which is what I. Actual ticket was plus 108 at FanDuel and Barcelona won pretty easily. five to zero official result was a win for us with approximate profit of 0 .54 units
Mikey Morales: So. The board finished slightly positive at the reference prices, but the numbers don't. really tell us how the how all the matches were. like a a good read or not.
Mikey Morales: Manchester City against Bournemouth. is the clearest example. The handicap survived, but city created enough danger to make the process grade less comfortable than the result here for us.
Mikey Morales: So that brings us to our featured audit that we first will talk about and review. It was a Manchester City versus Bournemouth which ended in a 2 -1 victory for Man City. Our original position was... mormon plus 125 with the projected score of two to two city and one Bournemouth, which did end up happening, and our average score was a 7 out of 10.
Mikey Morales: So. Our availability gate here, what we were looking for was Tyler Adams positive. or in the squat at all. So nothing really severely like... kind of coming into the starting lineup was two different. A lot of the teams in Europe were resting a lot of the World Cup stars and and athletes going into it. into the first week.
Mikey Morales: Let's look at our original thesis. We had Citi being a likely winner. of course as a projected score. And... The actual market really questioned here was, was Citi really...
Mikey Morales: worth the um market line price for their expected win margin and then we found that they were really overpriced when it came to their victory against Bournemouth. They were.
Mikey Morales: They had the badge on their name, and so they showed. the the Um, The money line or the sports book really showed that that's what they believed the score would be. And so we didn't take the bite. We didn't act on this. And we saw that Bormat's clearest. scoring routes. is what we thought would be in their transitions, their loose buildup. passes and their set pieces End.
Mikey Morales: In a lot of ways, they're... There. transitions ended up being the key part of art. of this result. um a nuger Another original thesis we had about this game was the handicap danger. City really repeatedly breaking the first pass, which we saw in the game. Holland receiving early chances inside the box.
Mikey Morales: Which we... We saw a new Holland, a a short hair Holland. um and we did see a lot of chances in the box of course which we knew holland would would make. Endormith.
Mikey Morales: being unable to exit after regaining possession. So... Let's look at our opening evidence. City started really aggressive and in the first half. Holland missed some really excellent chances and shots He was one of the World Cup players that did not rest in the first. game match day of the week so Holland.
Mikey Morales: Did we we said he was gonna have his chances and he did And he missed some excellent early chances, but it wasn't just Holland. throughout this game with you. as you can see it was both sides had some pretty clear Maybe.
Mikey Morales: Middle of the week. or middle of the the Premier League season, these would have been gimme goals. but There is still some rust coming off of these teams.
Mikey Morales: Um, So. Bournemouth still show transition danger here with Rayan attacking City's defense. on turn t and really forcing some early saves to start the game until bournemouth really cracked the um A hole into the gap Here, we had Tavenier scoring in that 26th minute. And really, City failed to control the bouncing ball in that first goal. But we see here that what we were predicting was Bournemouth's...
Mikey Morales: their attacking mindset, their push through their new coach. of being very attacking narrow like narrow attacking here. We saw Evan Nielsen crossed for Tavernier. And so this gave a really big validation to our Bournemouth pathway of defensive uncertainty for City, right? New midfield, not really.
Mikey Morales: uh having a quick a good cohesion to begin the season um Ellie Anderson having his first game. with man city's first official game i should say um So...
Mikey Morales: We also sat saw the like attacking really completed before City recovered there in the first goal. And so part of this thesis, part of our predictions from Thursday really showed up in the first goal.
Mikey Morales: So the full match evidence here. This city. We're very dominant here. as we predicted but maybe not as much as as we had thought there's approximate 2 .35 xg coming into into the full match for city So XG is the expected goal. So we had a very high amount. That's it. 66 possession doesn't really give us a lot of. Maybe.
Mikey Morales: Like. It doesn't show how much Citi was in their possession, was mostly attacking. The 2 .35 XG really kind of narrows that. down for us. They had...
Mikey Morales: A bunch of big chances in this game from Mark Gahee, from... Um, Of course, Erling Haaland, but also theirre their wingers in Semenya. He played a really great game. They had 37 penalty area touches. That's an insanely amount.
Mikey Morales: Born with, they had a 0 .63 XG, but they did the most of what they had there. They're mostly defending when they had the ball. They definitely were attack oriented And they only had six penalty areas at touches here. So it was a very getting go out. um Unfortunately, they did not big they did not create a risk, a XG risk as we had wanted them to. um
Mikey Morales: And then again after finally breaking the tap breaking the the gap into the warm -up defensive wall. Mike, he equalized in the 84th minute.
Mikey Morales: With which really he should have equalized and the 50 I think the 50th minute um With another header that was a very open net Just. needed a soft touch into it and unfortunately he made it too soft Um, and just didn't equalize it there but he makes up for his his miss in the 94th minute And then what looked like a seemingly.
Mikey Morales: 1 -1 draw turned into a man a... Vintage Man City. Um, win. With Guardiola scoring in the winner their winner goal in stoppage time after a VAR kind of check to find and make sure that at at first it was called no goal because of offside, but they quickly... change that decision so in the and overall city deserved the victory
Mikey Morales: And they got it marginally with Maresca's first game at the Helms with Man City. handicap really survived because city missed a lot of chances it really we got very lucky here Petrovic made important saves, yes. But in the end, the the third goal. And the. honestly the very much deserved goal. prove that the plus 1 .25 handicap that we had placed was a good read.
Mikey Morales: And these... Expected. projected goal. was exactly what we were looking for when it came to Man City. We unfortunately didn't see it through. When it came to.
Mikey Morales: Bournemouth and their expected goals. um didn't create as big of a risk. um As they did maybe the... the last match day that they had, the match last game that they had. played in a head -to -head. which ended with Bournemouth and Manchester City's title run.
Mikey Morales: I'd seen some interviews before the game of, I think it was O 'Reilly, Nico O 'Reilly kind of saying how much he. Man City really wanted to win this game because of kind of how. how that their last game really influenced. There. their loss of the chimp.
Mikey Morales: the championship title. So we corrected the expected margin, right? With the plus 125, we had plus. so we had made a plus one um then that would have been ah a push which would we would have gone our money back we wouldn't have made a profit but with the 1 .25 we made a half March and win or half. Um, BetWin.
Mikey Morales: So Bournemouth scored through and expected in the expected transition route, which we had predicted. but City looked structurally and incomplete despite winning, which I think it showed in the midfield.
Mikey Morales: Kovacic is... um a Great player. Don't get me wrong. But he's already coming up in age. He's been seeing the bench for Man City now for some years. You can tell that with this new signing of Boadi.
Mikey Morales: um Yes, he's young, but he also has something to prove and he's proven in the World Cup and I think he can prove it in the Premier League So this is what we got right in the in our prediction.
Mikey Morales: what we didn't What we underestimated is how much had he created enough to cover a large handicap. They really. had. They like shot themselves in the foot so many times.
Mikey Morales: with their their shots but in a way We. had seen throughout this first match day is just how much that and we can see how rusty the Premier League... um Teams are in scoring goals. There's a lot of missed chances and very obvious chances Um. and that's going to be a part of starting this this um first like match days into the into the leagues.
Mikey Morales: So. availability adjustment here. that we're going to try to adjust here. in in our Monday audit because that's a big part of this audit is what are the adjustments, the tweaks, the things we learned. The things that we. Got right.
Mikey Morales: Adams, we thought was going to be a big part I thought was going to be a big part of this game. He entered into the 75th minute. And he didn't play a huge part. He played a part of of defending. but i will say the not in a good way he did a good part of the the lack of defending in the last uh bladder part of the the game which ended with um after he came on of course he was a part of the He was on the field during the two goals that Man City scored.
Mikey Morales: So I think future gate should really distinguish between available in squad and expected to start. um because it feels like that paid. That played a ah factor there um So something that we can definitely adjust. Also squad availability.
Mikey Morales: Um... Gate is something we like had passed And I think I want to make sure to. really make that a a not a central role but something that's important to our our assessment to in our edge score.
Mikey Morales: Um, So the audit grade that I gave here. was. Official result was a half win. Predicted score correct. tactical tactical read was a mixed positive.
Mikey Morales: And our suggested process grade I gave was a B. So the main lesson here is correct margin. but a really fragile pathway. So the Bournemouth position worked because we separated cities' likelihood of winning from their likelihood of winning comfortably. Udinese versus Como failed for a fundamental reason. Como controlled possession, but we confuse possession control with chances with chance suppression here.
Mikey Morales: Okay. Let's get into our... audit. A. or supporting RAA. and Udinese vs. Como. So the original position we had was both teams to score a no. Projected score, 1. and Udinese 0, and our edge score was 7 .2 out of 10 at the time.
Mikey Morales: Original thesis was Como controlled possession and territory, with Udinese remaining compact in attacking. directly. keenan david identified as a home attacking hinge that would be a big part of or We did an SS attacking core.
Mikey Morales: And really. commo's big We had identified as big. um Path to victory was isolating Davis, which represented the attack. um And if he if they. Relate.
Mikey Morales: put Davis like in coverage that they would have a um Very easy route to having stopping Udinese's attack um Attack form. So.
Mikey Morales: The thesis breakdown here is Udinese winning second balls if they could. um repeated shots or box entries and set piece pressures becoming sustainable for us.
Mikey Morales: for them. What happened, though? Davis did not. Drive third and I say attack he didn't play much of um Amen. In fact, he played none of this game. because of the injury that we did not that i did not see So...
Mikey Morales: This part that actually shows a ah little bit about the change up to what I was talking about before with the Man City and Bournemouth game. I was really looking at who's going to be starting these matches and who's not.
Mikey Morales: So Udinese Yuzugi. ahead of... ah I can no camp. and zaniolo and ah ah While he was on the field. It was a really good decision on their part They really.
Mikey Morales: And the... position that we had put was basically dead before halftime with kamara scoring in the 29th minute We and did not. We. What happened was Udinese produced several attempts during the opening 20 minutes and really showed off the bat that they... had a threat there.
Mikey Morales: And also... We had seen kind of how Como... in a lot of ways, ah really needed to... to jumpstart the wheel. and kind of play in their form that they were playing last year which they It took them a while to get to where they eventually did equalize the goal in the 54th minute with Duvica scoring for Como. But it was a really big miss for us. Como had 59. percent possession
Mikey Morales: But they produced they produced 20 shots and six on target and 10 corners So they they produced like a good amount of of scoring But that's not the worry we had what we had and didn't predict was the real big mess in Udinese having a 1 .98 expected goals. three huge chances in and multiple legitimate scoring opportunities. So both teams to score recording of.
Mikey Morales: It really. um as i know really missed here this is not one ah one unlikely who didn't i say finish Um, Como controlled the ball without controlling Udinese's chances and it really like hurt us here in our in our projection of what we thought the game would be.
Mikey Morales: So. Oh wait, well we need to change here. is i think not really building an attack suppression case around one player i think that's the miss i found here was you know if we cover one player.
Mikey Morales: then that means the attack is gone. And... especially a player that was going to be out for the game. So this was a big miss on my part. identifying at least three scoring routes for each team would be i think pretty helpful here in our next like our next um Official plays.
Mikey Morales: So. Another thing is... woo can separate possession control with territorial control and chances control. And I think that's that's done in the the possession percentage, the expected goal differential, and also... the momentum. um like meter, which shows up into most games.
Mikey Morales: um So our audit grade here was official loss. tactical read was a a big miss here. And validation signal here was the useful and visible early. um Our suggestion process. grade i gave was a c minus And it was our biggest miss of the weekend.
Mikey Morales: By far. Udinese in. Come on. Reminded us that controlling the ball is not the same as controlling the opponent Barcelona gave us an opposite audit here. Their total team won because the expected pressing and transition pathways repeatedly appeared.
Mikey Morales: That takes us into supporting Audit B for us. So here we have our original position. was barcelona team total over two and a half goals with our projected score being Barcelona 3. And I'll say one.
Mikey Morales: And our edge score we had was a 6 .9 out of 10. Team total preferred over the correlated full game over here was R. Our... be here because it gave us a better profit margin.
Mikey Morales: And a plus 108 for Barcelona over two and a half goals. I will. I would suggest that we won't see. a plus um i Outcome in another two and a half goals for Barcelona. This is a team that scored. i Believe in every game last year except for one or two Um,
Mikey Morales: and our original thesis was saying that l2 would attempt to play in instead of remaining in a permanent low block which you can see that they they did in a lot of ways just that.
Mikey Morales: They had 46%.
Mikey Morales: of possession of the game. And they... Really? Did... like show that they could be a attacking threat i should say not attacking threat but a possession threat not a low block team that Just let's... Barcelona.
Mikey Morales: have. majority of possession of the game and and basically make the decisions about how the game flow would be. Barcelona could attack was our our thesis right having space behind the wider players isolating the defenders with le minimum.
Mikey Morales: And we didn't know at the time who was going to be on the left side. Wait, maybe We had Rafinha. Maybe we had Anthony Gordon in the middle. What it what ended up happening was a little bit different.
Mikey Morales: but still built. Still was the thesis that Barcelona could attack here. main Our main danger, what we said, was the short preparation. Also, the ter the midfield lacking rhythm.
Mikey Morales: We didn't know who was going to play the midfield. Rodri, yes, is signed, but also we didn't know who was going to be starting that first game. And so let's see. How it developed.
Mikey Morales: It dealt with... Rafinha. Pretty much. breaking the tide of the game pretty fast in the 14th minute, getting a penalty. and then also scoring the penalty.
Mikey Morales: really showing I'll say that they can't even if they wanted to play a low block right Maybe if they wanted in the first 20 minutes to see what Barcelona had to offer attacking -wise.
Mikey Morales: a barcelona with not an official number nine lost both of their number nines to start the season haven't really filled the gap. Right now they chose to have Rafinha in the center as the as either the number nine or maybe a false nine.
Mikey Morales: So that early goal really forced Elche to take a greater greater risk there. And we can see that they had tried to... Like break that high line a couple times, but they in a lot of ways They didn't really show that they could do that consistently or at least Barcelona didn't let them do that consistently. Because the second goal directly validated the pressing thesis that we had set. Barcelona recovered possession. Yamal really found Rafinha.
Mikey Morales: and then add a yemi attack behind the line there. Which was... We didn't have the name of who would be in the left wing, but I mean, really. really played poorly in the first half until he scored the goal. The goal really...
Mikey Morales: as any attacker. like does. Eat. it gave him a boost of confidence and it changed also the tide of the game so both scores both goals in the first half really influenced how the outcome of this game would be Another thing that changed the...
Mikey Morales: Beat. dynamics of this game. It's an unfortunate one because we know Ngavi's injury. We know that Gabi had had a year -long ACL. um Tear that really. that.
Mikey Morales: Took him out for a season about a season and a half. Um, And we saw. Gavi, go. off in the first half and get replaced by Pedri, which is...
Mikey Morales: testament to how big the depth is for Barcelona to have Pedri come off the bench. Granted, he is yeah a starter, but... um He's again part of the World Cup. um starting players that played a majority of the games. and like Again, he lost his starting position, but he played a lot of the games in a lot of minutes in the World Cup and was benched but had to come out really quickly in that. in a hard way to say is really showed that like Pedri.
Mikey Morales: Had. like influence the game in a positive way for Barcelona, creating more chances for them. as Gabi, more of a defense. oriented player.
Mikey Morales: um came off in the first half. What changed in a lot of ways with the second half was when Gordon entered um the in the second half, creating the third goal, but also creating the fourth goal.
Mikey Morales: and almost creating his own goal of his own um but the team total cashed very quickly in the set in the second half and gordon is a big part of that creating yet again the third and fourth goal um with Federmeen also just showing up with the fifth goal as well. um the fourth and fifth goal i should say And it it just showed that Elche were...
Mikey Morales: Not really. It looked like they were demoralized the more Barcelona got into their flow of attack. Um, And also showed that barcelona still can attack that again that plus two over two and a half plus money I don't know if we'll see that again in the season.
Mikey Morales: It's almost like I put that in the same margin as... I got. over two and a half for Bayern Munich, right? Although they didn't get there in the df or in the final of the Pokal.
Mikey Morales: And we'll talk about that later. But... The lineup evidence we had was, again, like that. We knew Red Rodri was not going to play. we knew Pedri was not going to start. But that really changed things because Pedri did end up playing a good majority of the game.
Mikey Morales: because of Gabi's injury. What? The read got right for us was Barcelona's press created direct scoring opportunities. So we we had viewed that as the kind of... the script going into the game and we did also see that his ambition really helped create open second half goals.
Mikey Morales: um we Didn't predict though was that the goals were going to come. Or else his ambitions were going to come pretty quickly in the game because of that early goal penalty goal. um so we also correctly um projected the team total um isolated Barcelona's advantage too that like the more they scored the more that they were going to have more open open chances to score again and that's exactly what happened in the second half and it was really defined
Mikey Morales: They're almost like in bold of that prediction. Um, Ultimately, Barcelona produce 5 goals despite holding only a modest possession advantage here. Again, they had only in total Howdy. 54 possession but their expected goals amount was killer 4 .38 with 21 touches in the box So it's a very good performance from Barcelona.
Mikey Morales: So our strength here is that the early penalty really accelerated the script for us. Yes Five goals to do not establish Barcelona's. as like this is the normal way of attacking it showed the very um Good prediction for Barcelona's over two and a half.
Mikey Morales: But it also showed Elche is a bottom half team that are not going to be judged on this game, a game versus Real Madrid or a game against Atletico. They're going to be judged against the games for the bottom half teams. And if they can. stay in promotion as they did on the last match day of last season with the 1 -1 tie against Girona.
Mikey Morales: That's how they're going to be judged. And so I think in a lot of ways they did let up in this game, kind of defeated. because I think they knew that they weren't going to come back after that second goal. Honestly, maybe even after that first goal. But they played.
Mikey Morales: as best as they could in the first match day. So our audit grade we put was a ah win. A. strong tactical raid here probably the strongest of the of our tactical reads.
Mikey Morales: um and suggested ah process grade of ah A minus. Best official read of the weekend by far. The official board produced one strong read, one fragile positive result, and one legitimately mess here. The radar did not affect the record, but it produced several important pieces of evidence for Thursday.
Mikey Morales: Yeah. So now we go on to our radar and watch list audit. What we had seen some games that we will go through these also really fast, but we'll we that Some games that we talked about was Brentford.
Mikey Morales: versus Tottenham. And Brentford ended with the score of Brentford 3 and Tottenham 0. So original question was, could Tottenham come? Good Tottenham. rebuild.
Mikey Morales: Um, build up sort of ah like survival in Brentford's pressure. um And the answer is... No. Brentford had played. Probably.
Mikey Morales: The best game. All right. that we saw from a premier league team in the first match day they had 3 .9 expected goals Probably should have had a lot more goals. um then their three zero outcome um Suggest they had 26 shots and also Igor Tiago with a missed penalty.
Mikey Morales: Now 59 possession for... percent per session for Tottenham this is well well um if you just saw this You would think. Tottenham.
Mikey Morales: They played pretty good. They had a good amount of possession and they maybe light up some. Some bad goals for Brentford. Brentford maybe just snuck some in. Right. No, this is this is nowhere near the truth. They had only. 0 .47 xg Tottenham's possession produced neither penetration nor control. And it really showed Tottenham were leagues.
Mikey Morales: Um, Beyond. below Brentford's. um Just effort and just pressing Like Brentford really dominated in pressing Tottenham. To start the game the second balls. They won the set pieces They won everything when it came to them. this game and ah tactically.
Mikey Morales: So the verdict verdict was a strong identification, but again we didn't know official wagers. um So no. record of of credit here. Stock up for sure is Brentford's pressing coordination. They are a legitimate team this year and they're.
Mikey Morales: Chances of. um Yeah, going to to Europe is... It's a lot stronger. I'm honestly really glad. From what I can remember, they I don't think they...
Mikey Morales: are playing in Europe this year. I think they're one of the teams that either... Just made it. Tch. like the Off. or maybe they are playing in the conferencing. I'll have to i'll have to check that. A stock down as Tottenham's build up under pressure. For sure, if they did not. Show. up at all. in the pressing they they look like they didn't know what to do with with the ball when they had it And Brentford had just a very.
Mikey Morales: Yeah, just very like they didn't have any. Um... Luxury team, a luxury player. like the commentators were saying for this game like they didn't have a luxury player Brentford had like in the in the sense that Brentford had somebody that wasn't going to press or wasn't going to.
Mikey Morales: kind of put 100 % effort. They had a full 100 % effort team in this game. So that's a stock up for Brentford. Newcastle to Liverpool to Newcastle scored after the fifth minute through a counter -attack and that was kind of Newcastle's Angle here was the counter -attack and they showed They showed it when both of their goals coming from a counterattack against Liverpool.
Mikey Morales: um validated concerns about space behind Liverpool. They showed... a Big gap they had 61 possession and 27 shots almost they had 2 .7 xg um And they had created a lot of chances.
Mikey Morales: Don't get me wrong. Their attacking really showed up. and their attacking showed as a... ah pretty um good threat against Premier League teams. But the thing, the war we had was was their defense and their defense didn't really... necessarily show up. um,
Mikey Morales: here in control link or um Keeping. like keeping Alison. in a That may be a very quiet. game here So a stock up we have is Newcastle's direct threat, which showed legitimate, um didn't come often.
Mikey Morales: But when it did... It resulted in two scores, so I don't think you can really knock that down. Now, I'm not going to say it's stock down, but mixed. I'll say Liverpool's attacking volume Was great.
Mikey Morales: But. Their defensive chemistry is still lacking. And that's something that they need to build up. Again, they had Van Dyke, one of... the mo the little uh premier leagues Most um prestigious. And maybe... um Just.
Mikey Morales: Like when it comes to wisdom and knowing what. like the read of teams. It's pretty sound. And then they had a rookie. on the right side of him And so it's just these.
Mikey Morales: i guess the duplicity of of what a defensive line can look like and then we have lastly enter um versus Monza, which ended in Inter 4 and Monza 1.
Mikey Morales: Monson put a scare here. They equalized in their first attempt on goal here after Inter scored an early goal. And. It's really changed the tide for for the game in a sense of kind of pushing enter to Um,
Mikey Morales: Go all out for the second half It was a 1 -1 draw in halftime. But Inter really pulled away and showed their... 1. attacking depth but also their bench depth.
Mikey Morales: So the upgrade here was enter attacking. Depth. is um, Shows like how much they have strikers and plenty for Especially for the Serie A. And something to keep monitoring is. the defensive communication and the rest defense again they're adding uh Curtis Jones into their their defensive communication and their defensive line more. um
Mikey Morales: English speakers and English players in the defensive line. If they actually become starters, they have really good options in the defensive line. So we'll see how that progresses.
Mikey Morales: Um, They don't really allow the 4 -1 final score to raise the halftime warning there to start the game. It could be just the... you know, the first match day and against like Monza at home. Maybe they just kind of...
Mikey Morales: thought this was going to be easy win i'm glad in a way. for them that they they had that halftime draw really showed that they had to. step it up a notch in the serial.
Mikey Morales: So pending Monday matches was Bologna and Lazio, which is something we're going to keep a radar on. um It was not an official score, but we had seen kind of a an edge of maybe. um Bologna Lazio. a under one goal. in the first half. at a minus 110. I found it on FanDuel as well.
Mikey Morales: um And then Roma Fiorentina. original verdict was, um, a pass at approximately 175 to 185. um And something we can, if you see a reconsidering boundary was minus 150 for a Fiorentina money line.
Mikey Morales: Or sorry, Roma Moneyline. So we have... Our port card. here. For. what the process looked like so our matchup identification i gave a b minus or b plus What was strong was what we saw in Barcelona's attacking matchup.
Mikey Morales: Bournemouth's transition routes. Um, and Brentford against Tottenham's build -up. We had seen his Newcastle attacking Liverpool's channels.
Mikey Morales: we'd gotten all these right in the attacking front and look like like how Barcelona, Bournemouth, Brentford. Ironically, all Bs. um And Newcastle. would attack.
Mikey Morales: The game. Right, kind of like in different ways, right? Brentford the press, Bournemouth the... And Newcastle, maybe the more of the transition. And Barcelona is just... their build up into the attacking and if they were going to be able to to fill the void of the of the missing number nine. and That's going to still be a question that's not answered here.
Mikey Morales: But something that we found was weak was Udinese's attacking ceiling. We did not. Project 4. Game script accuracy we put a I think I put as a a B Rush Sloan is...
Mikey Morales: And game script accuracy was very strong. Manchester City's correct score, but the dangerous dangerous underlying match was not a correct read. And of course, the Odinese come on possession, right? A chance to control. was really wrong we did not predict for who didn't say having that high vague of a of expected goal margin And then Brentford perfect is a perfect example of why position. possession does not equal control.
Mikey Morales: Because... Again 59 % for Tottenham. But Brentford played lights out and above and beyond better than Tottenham. So I think that was an invalidation trigger.
Mikey Morales: Um, and we graded it was a minus with cities um early holland chances exposed exposed handicap risk um for what a plus 125 and it really did early on in the first 20 minutes Another thing was. If we had seen early shots weakened.
Mikey Morales: um with both teams to score now. which we did see, and ah another invalidation trigger for the Barcelona 2. Over two and a half goals was if we had seen pressure and early goals strengthened the team total script, which we did Um, Which we...
Mikey Morales: Honestly. Yeah, we I'd say we did. So in some invalidation signals was the accountability tools. And not Adam. Matic live betting recommendations here for us.
Mikey Morales: So let's get into our weekend awards. The best official read is a Barcelona team total and over two and a half. And I think of this. are most fragile. positive. um Result was Bournemouth plus 125.
Mikey Morales: um Our biggest miss was, of course, with NSA's attack. The best radar read was Brentford against Tottenham. Um, The most misleading statistic.
Mikey Morales: is a Tottenham 59 % possession Really did not show. the equivalent. or showed misconstrued Tottenham's actual attacking. um strength and danger.
Mikey Morales: This is a very weak. And the most important hidden warning here is ensure reaching halftime at 011. Was it a one -off Luke? Was it? Maybe. Just the first.
Mikey Morales: ah match day, first half. um kind of stress or um getting the engine started. um and to needing to take a while.
Mikey Morales: But we don't know. It's a hidden warning here. So some framework edition. is the chance control test that we added where we're going to add for every under or both teams to score in our position.
Mikey Morales: We're going to ask who controls possession, who controls controls territory. and who controls the opponent's chance quality. We're not going to kind of just. say that if we defend one person. that it's going to make a...
Mikey Morales: It's going to block the whole attacking orientation of of a team. The framework adjustments will follow us into Thursday. as always but we close but before we close another league is about to enter the evidence cycle. This is going to be the completion of our edge framework. The Bundesliga. The Bundesliga begins Friday. And unlike England or Italy, Germany has already given us some competitive cup evidence to evaluate.
Mikey Morales: So... This is our Bundesliga. first look and this will be our last thing for our Monday audit.
Mikey Morales: So we'll get into this very quickly But... We see as the opening environment coming into the Bundesliga. um first match day it it starts august 28th That's in four days from now.
Mikey Morales: It was delayed because of the post -World Cup calendar. Um... But the Friday opener is is a great match in Bayern Munich versus Stuttgart. Bayern defeated Dortmund in the weekend, 2 -1 in the Super Cup. It was a very close game, but ultimately, we all knew Bayern was going to win.
Mikey Morales: Stuttgart beat Hansa Rostock 4 -0 in the DFB Cup. there's some If you look at some of the game highlights, there's so many to begin with. but If you look specifically for the the teams that have a a a Not legitimate, but a threat to the title. um There's some teams that showed up. Other cups results were Leverkusen 1, 4 -0. LifeSync160. Minds190.
Mikey Morales: Ellsberg, one of the promoted teams, won 3 -1. Paderborn 142. So first Bundesliga lesson here. as germany has more competitive evidence than england or italy before the league openers so we have some maybe for thursday we're gonna have some breeds that are a little bit more Accurate have higher edge scores um The opponent quality creates a major trap for us.
Mikey Morales: Fitness, intensity, lineup intentions, and whether structure looks functional. would be something that we can look into the cut performances.
Mikey Morales: So over the weekend, over the week, I'm going to be looking at some of those matches and identifying what are some themes into these Bundesliga. We can't find everything automatically from these cup matches, but we can find some aspects of the attacking ceiling to start the first match week. The first game we have is Bayern versus Stuttgart. I love saying Stuttgart.
Mikey Morales: Early buying price is approximately minus 370 and the total being approximately three over three and a half. Um, So Bayern are clearly the likely winners here. But the question here is, does the Super Cup justify the expected margin?
Mikey Morales: can preserve enough possession to prevent constant buying pressure. These are the questions the questions we're going to go into into Thursday. So some potential Thursday markets is Stuttgart handicaps, Bayern team totals. So looking into that of what are the team totals, where you can get plus money for Bayern. And the full game over.
Mikey Morales: So no official preferred. position yet. The three promoted teams. that we're going to look at. really briefly Elfsberg, and Paderborn.
Mikey Morales: Shaka, one of my... favorite teams. Um, in the Bundesliga for many years had a very um Yeah, very sad. um kind of relegation after relegation. But now they're back in the Bundesliga.
Mikey Morales: And this is promotion a promotion really built on defensive orientation. they have They do have a legend and in Edin Dzeko. Um, in the starting lineup but i believe he's over 40 now so i wouldn't put a lot on him To be a big part of their. um Their stay in in the first. um division um in the Bundesliga. So Ellsberg, they have the...
Mikey Morales: their first Bundesliga season. They have also a home opener against a... um, render in the process of renovation, like recusing. So that's a team. Maybe it's a game to watch Powderborn is the more volatile team of the three.
Mikey Morales: They have had a significant summer turnover. Um, but there. They played very well in the 4 -2 win in the cup. um So the first question here is... is which promoted identity survives the step up. and That's the question we're going to ask into the first match day.
Mikey Morales: So early matchup. matches under the microscope we have is Elfsberg and Leverkusen. Like I said, historic first Bundesliga match for Elfsberg. The home environment is going to be wild.
Mikey Morales: We have. Seen... And just looking into some of the... the money lines, Leverkusen has ah ah approximately minus 185. Is that worth Leverkusen in their adjustments, losing their best player in Grimaldo? um having a new head coach so the main question is does elfsburg preserve its ambition or does Leverkusen force an immediate survival structure?
Mikey Morales: So the first 20 minutes, as we talked about. What we're going to we're goingnna see as the weekend indicator is this. They're starting press pretty high. ability to complete the first pass after regaining possession, and whether the wider players are willing to advance.
Mikey Morales: Also, seeing if Leverkusen will immediately pin... Alpsburg down inside their own third That's something that will be interesting to find. So the Bundesliga verdict is... Again, no official Monday possession positions here, of course.
Mikey Morales: But we're going to look at prices. Bayern's expected margin. Evaluate Ellsberg's promoted identity. and adjust every... DFB. Cup Resolve for opponent quality.
Mikey Morales: So the official board produced one full win, one loss, and one half win, assuming all three tickets were logged inside. the price of and availability boundaries that we had suggested here in the show on Thursday.
Mikey Morales: Born at plus 125, survived Man City's late comeback. But City's chances, created creation keeps the process great at a B. Udinese versus Como's both teams to score a no was a clear miss. combook Como controlled possession and without controlling Udinese's chances, and that distinction becomes a permanent part of the framework.
Mikey Morales: So Barcelona's team total over. two and a half was the strongest read because the pressure transition attacks and the attacking depth all appeared At the reference prices, the board finished approximately plus...
Mikey Morales: 0 .27 units. That number will be... checked at the end of our show. um to make sure that that's the right price on my end um and maybe i can post that into our um discord that we'll have soon coming up on thursday we applied the lesson across four leagues now this is Finally.
Mikey Morales: where we had wanted it to be, all four leagues here. i Ready to start. This is the European Soccer Edge, guys, and I'm excited to see you guys. um for Thursday's show of all four teams. Remember people.
Mikey Morales: B. um liking and subscribing or following. the show You guys can see this show on Snipped, on... Um, Spotify.
Mikey Morales: on Apple Podcasts. but Honestly, hopefully anywhere you can you guys listen. See you. um to the show. So I will see you guys. on Thursday.
