Transcript
Mikey Morales: Hey guys, welcome to the European soccer ad show My name is Mikey Morales. I'll be your host. With this episode, this is... All right. inaugural first monday Audit Show.
Mikey Morales: So this will look a little bit different. This will be a little bit shorter to what. our usual episodes will look like. Because one, this is reviewing Garth Thursday. Our Thursday. ah predictions that we built for the first Alika. hypothesis of match day one. Again, we didn't have Atletico Madrid play yet. because um by the time I'm recording this, this is a Monday.
Mikey Morales: night, so We did see our Monday night our monday afternoon match for La Liga, so that will be... ah something that we are going to factor. But we didn't get to see our Wednesday match for Atletico Madrid yet. And we'll talk about that a little bit.
Mikey Morales: So this weekend, the matches finally started testing. Our hypothesis. And the first answer, she is. already kind of messy. so one official bet reached the the field and won our featured edge position Celta Vigo against Osasuna was postponed because of the conditions of a pitch. of Apparently a... Fuh.
Mikey Morales: I don't want to say foot fungus um i'm projecting there. But a fungal virus spreading across the field has postponed the Celta Vigo against Osasuna match. So a few other matches gave us useful evidence, even even though the prices never turned them into a official wager for us here on the show. So that is distinction going into the matter on the show.
Mikey Morales: I don't want to. I don't want these Monday episodes really to become a list of scores followed by me saying I was right or I was wrong. Results matter, but they don't know. They don't really tell us whether the reasoning was good. so today Today, we're separating the results from the process.
Mikey Morales: Racing Santander against Villarreal gives us the cleanest test. Did racing preserve the aggressive identity that earned promotion? Did Villarreal find the space we expected?
Mikey Morales: And then the interactions create the open game behind our. are Our over two and a half goal position. So. We'll look at four different kind of non -bets. ah lavante um Levante. Levante lean that failed and Alavis versus Hatafe under that looked right. ah right until red card changed really that match in a lot of ways and a Sevilla price that moved after the original show. And also...
Mikey Morales: And ah like Deportivo lean that never really reached. the required number that we wanted. Again, this is part of our show. The goal isn't to define or defend our every opinion. it's out It's to find out what's the first evidence should change right there. What did we really... what we did like read well
Mikey Morales: So where did the odds boundaries protect us right there too? What did we miss and what needs to be improved before the edge framework turns towards the Premier League on Thursday and also into the Serie A?
Mikey Morales: So let's audit it. Okay, going into our first header of the audit board. Before we get into the matches, here's the board because bets leans and passes cannot be graded as if they're the same thing. Racing Santander versus... villa rails over two and a half was an official half unit bet at approximately minus 120. Playable through minus 125. That gets a full audit.
Mikey Morales: Levante plus a half a goal against Espanyol was only a lean, so the available price was around minus 125 and needed a minus 110 or better. So no qualifying price means no official wager.
Mikey Morales: Alaves Hitafe, a two and a half under, was a pass. The total... fit the matchup, but a roughly minus 280 was not relevant. I was not really wanting to pay for like a minus 280. The boundary I really set there was ah a minus 230.
Mikey Morales: right And this is all backed on our h Edge framework. So Sevilla to beat Rayo was also a pass when Thursday's show was recorded. to the we're around plus All right. plus 120 to a plus 125 and I wanted a a plus 130.
Mikey Morales: So Deportivo to be Elche was another lane. My boundary was a plus 145, but the market moved towards a Deportivo instead of giving us the required price. That now gets a decision on it after the team's finished 1 -1.
Mikey Morales: Then we have an unfinished match, of course, in Celta. versus Osasuna. which was postponed again to August 27. And with Atletico playing on Wednesday, neither belong in today's win or loss record. So these rules govern the audit.
Mikey Morales: A lean is not a bet. A pass is not a prediction. that the selection will lose. and a postponed or unplayed match does not receive a grade of course. that's this Let's establish that. So let's start with one official position that settled.
Mikey Morales: So our featured audit for Thursday was Racing Santander versus Villarreal. So. The position was over two and a half goals at approximately a minus 120 for half a unit.
Mikey Morales: My maximum price was a minus 125, if we can find it. And the edge score we put was a 7 out of 10. My projected score was Racing 1, Villarreal 2. So the match finished 2 -2. So the the official bet is a win.
Mikey Morales: Good result, but did we really arrive at the right reasoning? that's the That's the premise of this all. The pre -match thesis had two main parts. Racing had earned promotion by playing aggressively, and I expected them to keep enough. of the identity at home to create a real game.
Mikey Morales: On the other side, Villarreal had the quality of their attackers and attacks. I don't know if you've seen if you seen the game. Their goals were... bankers of goals. And it really focused. against racing's aggression and if they can have some gaps in there that racing left behind So the biggest danger was quite like the opening
Mikey Morales: for the match if this reached 30 35 minutes at zero zero zero villarreal might be able to settle the stadium control possession or turn the match into something slower than the the total really needed. So that was the danger we had to kind of developed. Villarreal started to on the front.
Mikey Morales: Um, the front foot there. um the Georgian, George Mikot. Mikitads. It's always hard for the Georgian last name. It took me so long to say Kivertskelia. But he he forced the goalkeeper, Julian, this is also ah from the... from ah a harder region in spain but i get it as a bala
Mikey Morales: Into two saves inside the first honestly the first I think 10 or 15 minutes So that I really immediately kind of validated one part of our handicap Villarreal could create against the racing structure.
Mikey Morales: Now we we talked about racing side of the equation was a little different from what I had pictured. They didn't calmly pass through Villarreal's press over and over. At times they sat off there, won the ball and attacked more directly. They also pressed Villarreal's buildup and became kind of. increasingly aggressive as the half had developed.
Mikey Morales: So I don't know if you watched also the game, but you saw the two goals. All the food. The four goals ended in the in the first half. So it shows to goes to show how many things and how many...
Mikey Morales: um how open this game was very fast. Even losing Pedro Felipe to a hamstring injury in the opening first quarter of the match didn't really make racing retreat. They kept looking forward. And in the 21st minute, Jorge Salinas drew a penalty.
Mikey Morales: Andres Martin covered it. and converted it. And the the goal mattered beyond making it just a 1 -0 lead. It forced Villarreal to engage with the kind of match we wanted. So Racing doubled the lead in the 34th minute with Sergio Martinez.
Mikey Morales: when he collected a loose ball outside the box. and he produced ah an outstanding finish and it was Again, this game was just banger and banger after goals. So now Villarreal had a choice. But. Had no choice but to push a little like push harder while racing had kind of some space available in the transition.
Mikey Morales: Then came the two -minute swing that finished the bet. Papagai scored from outside the area in the 45th minute. and Then Nicolas Pepe equalized almost immediately after. Right just in.
Mikey Morales: um the first half stoppage time just to end the half Racing had gone from 2 -0. up to 2 -2. And over two and a half was was was already homed in before halftime for us.
Mikey Morales: What I like about the raid is that the goals did not depend on one narrow pathway. Racing created danger through pressure, direct attacks, transition moments. Billy Rowe had... an individual quality around the penalty area and enough sustained pressure to really punish racing once the game opened. So the but broad interaction was right. Racing's ambition plus Villarreal's attacking talent created volatility. The second half was one. ah One useful correction there though. Valerial finished roughly 59 % possession and gradually controlled more territory and
Mikey Morales: As racing like tired on. But the match didn't really... become one -way traffic there racing came out pretty aggressive after halftime both sides continue to produce change chances and it remained competitive until the final stretch became a scrappier kind of game so i would call the tactical read accurate but not really perfect I was. write about racing's willingness to attack.
Mikey Morales: I was right about Villarreal. kind of being finding those chances there. I was right about the early goal and how that would happen. ah would really open the game. But what I really kind of underestimated there was how kind of the comfortable how comfortable racing could be attacking more directly instead of consistently playing through the first line of pressure.
Mikey Morales: The... That really kind of matters going forward. Racing may even be more interesting and transition than I gave them credit for. That could be could create kind of opportunities and totals and also both teams to score markets But one match evidence isn't not isn't really a permanent deal or something we should
Mikey Morales: give a lot of weight too. So now let's look at the price. We took ah ah over two and a half around a minus 120 and set a minus 125 as the stopping point. But by match day, the market was really dealing a completely different total. Over 3 .5 was available as a plus 120 file.
Mikey Morales: five Well, archive prices for over two and a half had become much more expensive at that point. This is kind of meaningful for our closing line value here. We entered before the market raised the costs. And more importantly, we did not choose beyond the number established on Thursday. So my final grade here, an official result win was a...
Mikey Morales: was a grade A. A tactical read, strong with with a small correction to how racing created these attacks, which I think will be good information to keep in for this racing team.
Mikey Morales: Our surprise discipline was strong. Our overall process grade was I would give is an A-, a minus not because the four goals were scored, but because... The expected interactions really appeared. The main danger did not. and the position was taken before the market moved. So good read, good price, and ultimately good result.
Mikey Morales: That leads us into these other four different lessons that we learned from this decision audit. So the next three matches were not official bets, of course, but they did tell us something about the quality of the now the analysis. For each one, I care about four things. What I expected.
Mikey Morales: What the opening of the matches showed us. whether the identified dangers appeared and whether the prices. price decisions were correct. So, Espanyol versus Levante. It was a bad... read that kind of stayed off the record here. This is the cleanest example why every lean is needs a boundary here.
Mikey Morales: Thursday's direction was Levante plus half a goal. So the research price was around a minus 125, but I really wanted or needed at least the boundary of a minus 110 or better.
Mikey Morales: it was a 7 .2 edge lean so not an official position here this idea was that levante could stay compact survive the opening pressure and create enough transition threat through Carlos.
Mikey Morales: Alvarez and Ivan Romero to keep the match close. The central question there whether was whether Espanyol's possession would become real penetration or remain mostly harmless. So we got the answer almost immediately if we if we watch the game.
Mikey Morales: Roberto Fernandez scored in the fifth minute. Espanyol settled after taking the lead. They kept creating and made it through. to zero again in the 40th minute. Tyreeth.
Mikey Morales: Tyrus Dolan added in the 30th minute or in the 80th minute the third goal. The early goal destroyed the game's state Levante really needed. Instead of protecting a 0 -0 and asking Espanyol to solve a compact defense, Levante was really chasing before the match had even settled.
Mikey Morales: Espanol didn't even - need overwhelming possession to control the dangerous areas. The split was close to even, but Espanol finished with six shots on target while Levante had really had none.
Mikey Morales: This is not misleading 3 -0. Espanyol were clearly the better team here. So Levante's transition argument failed as well. Carlos Alvarez was removed at halftime. Ivan Romero came off in the 64th minute and neither really gave Levante an outlet I expected. So there's no need to soften the soccer read. The matchup was, the read was really missed here.
Mikey Morales: The best decision is... is The betting decision is different. I cannot verify Levante plus have a goal reaching. um ah Minus one time. 10. but the documented prices remained more expensive than the entry points, so the lien never really qualified. The soccer read is a miss. The market discipline, correct.
Mikey Morales: Official read, no action. But the boundary didn't make the analysis right. It stopped. a wrong analysis from automatically becoming a wager here for us. That's a lesson right here. Liking a site is not enough. The market still has to pay ah for us for being wrong.
Mikey Morales: So that brings us into our second matchup for. Alaves versus Hitafit.
Mikey Morales: So Alaves versus Zatav is almost the opposite lesson here for us. I expected a physical lowev event low event game, a game kind of rough as as maybe a typical um bottom of the table La Liga match of ah under two and a half goals. that was That was my direction here, but the price was around ah a minus 280. My boundary was a minus 230 here. So despite the 7 .3 edge score, the verdict was a pass.
Mikey Morales: the opening so supported the matchup here or the handicap here the match was pretty aggressive and a dual like heavy but clean chances were were pretty hard to find and they reached to zero zero at halftime which was close to the environment i kind of expected here lucas boy was not alavis was not in alavis's squad another reason to believe their attacking ceiling might be limited here then the match changed in the 42nd minute with hitafes kiko Femenya who was sent off after Vidi Ravoud upgraded his yellow car to red. That's the event that finally so
Mikey Morales: that the final score cannot kind of explain by itself, right? Even against 10 men, Alaves didn't really break through until Nahuel Tenay. Tenaglia scored in the 73rd minute. Marino Diaz added the second one in the 91st, and Mikel Rodriguez made it 3 -0 in the 94th.
Mikey Morales: Under 2 .5 ultimately lost, but the original low of that read was not unreasonable. It was kind of disrupted by that red card and stoppage time goals, the two stoppage time goals at the end of the game. That doesn't mean the under deserved to win, but it means that the uncertainty attached to any soccer match was much larger than the return offered by the minus 280 here. I found no evidence.
Mikey Morales: that under two and a half for reached the minus 230 boundary here. But by kickoff, some books had to moved the main total down to one and a half, which tells us how aggressively the market agreed with low scoring thesis. This is a correct pass here. Not a win, not a not a loss either. A decision that avoided paying a massive premium for a game state.
Mikey Morales: that one had really unpredictable events that could destroy it and did. If I had to choose the best decision on the weekend, this may be it. Not the racing over that one, but really refusing to lay a minus 280 on a fragile outcome here. A good prediction. And this is the premise of our show. A good prediction at a bad price is still a pass here.
Mikey Morales: So this is our third run, the third game in Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano. And this might be considered the messiest grade here for us, to be honest. Sevilla and Rayo, it requires a little more.
Mikey Morales: care because the winner, the performance, and the price tell three different roles or stories here. Sevilla were my preferred side. They were approximately...
Mikey Morales: approximately a plus 120. I'm plus 125 when Thursday's show was recorded and my entry point was ah a plus. 130. so the public the publisher um verdict was a pass because it what didn't reach our boundary here. So the matchup idea was that Sevilla could attack Rayo's left side, while Rayo's position might struggle to create consistent danger there.
Mikey Morales: Four minutes into the match, Raya really exposed the weakest part of the argument. Mix up between...
Mikey Morales: aruno sangante and odysseus um, which i love the name of let you go demos which you can tell is very greek allowed alvaro garcia to steal the ball score into empty net and it really looked ugly just a lot of miscommunication here to start the first game before start the first first goal rio also had it you see um Palos on goal, disallowed. And Randy Nteka missed another major opportunity there. So Sevilla reach halftime really without a shot on target. And they're fortunate to only be one goal behind here.
Mikey Morales: Soraya's position and pressure were were really not harmless. The warning signs appeared pretty immediately though Sevilla improved after the big the break.
Mikey Morales: Miguel Sierra drew a penalty and John Guriri converted it in the 52nd minute, which I also didn't know. Actually, he was playing for Sevilla until watching this game. I had seen whenever I see a bald soccer player, I always think like. oh I definitely have seen him before, and I was thinking of where last year in La Liga, and I remembered he was playing think for Deportivo Alaves, I'm pretty sure.
Mikey Morales: But Sevilla later went down. 10 men. Which is kind of the theme of not only La Liga's match days, but if you can if you guys saw any other games, I felt like there was more red cards than usual. But they went down when Enrique Salas was sent off in the 80th minute. But really, Pique... um Beckett converted a second penalty in the 97 to make it 2 -1 comeback. And this was, I think, pretty fitting.
Mikey Morales: so via one and some of the and anticipated white area vulnerabilities didn't really appear that Like we had to expect it.
Mikey Morales: So I would not really call the performance ah a clean validation. The build -up errors, the first half, chances, concessions, and dependence on two penalties, really, which is super rare to make the result stronger than the underlying this display that we had predicted. So for the part that needs precise record keeping, the original pass was correct. Yeah. plus 120 to plus 25 later markets ah archives kind of show severe becoming available at a plus 130 boundary with prices ranging into the plus 140s on some books That means that the market eventually produced a qualifying number. But unless I actually monitored monitored it and logged a wager before kickoff, I can't retroactively call it an official win. So the honest grade is this. Original published decision is correct pass at the available price. market the later market status the entry trigger appeared
Mikey Morales: Official record is no action unless a qualifying wager was documented before kickoff. And the soccer read was really a right winner. A shaky performance there, though. And that gives me a process adjustment there, too. A price boundary is only useful if I have a consistent way to monitor it and record when the market kind of crosses it. Otherwise, I'm left constructed.
Mikey Morales: reconstructing the decision. after the result. And that is exactly what this audit is designed to really avoid in a lot of ways. so the last of the four audits for our game for our la liga match day was deportivo versus el chip Right. So at Deportivo.
Mikey Morales: um Versus I'll check gives us another version of the same separation between a soccer opinion and an actual wager. I prefer Deportivo at home, but only at a plus 145 or better. Instead of drifting towards that boundary, the market really shortened Deportivo into roughly about a minus plus 127 to a plus 130 range during the day.
Mikey Morales: with DraftKings eventually showing an even shorter number there too. So the entry never appeared. So there was no official bet here The matchup finished 1 -1. That makes the pass crack, but the matchup still deserves an audit here.
Mikey Morales: So my main question, whether Deportivo's home intensity could disrupt Elche's... built up in turn. Rayazord. into sustained attacking pressure. Was. was the main question here and the opening 20 minutes gave us an early warning here elche attempted to shoot in the sixth minute and created two more and around the 10th, including a close range opportunity that really forced Leo Roman into us into.
Mikey Morales: save here so Deportivo did grow into the game almost immediately after the 20 -minute checkpoint Pierre -Emerick Aubameyang who I was saying was the player to watch for this match day week gave them the lead in the 21st minute. So the first half idea was completely wrong here. Deportivo found energy, attacked with more purpose here, and reached halftime ahead.
Mikey Morales: The problem was sustaining it, really. Once Deportivo had the lead, they become increasingly passive. Elche's control... They controlled much more of the ball and took over the second half, really. Marc Argoado finally equalized in the 76th minute, and Roman needed five saves to prevent Deportivo from losing the match altogether. The final number supported that reading, that reading.
Mikey Morales: here that Elche finished with 61. percent six shots on target and both recorded big chances here so this isn't a clean validation of Deportivo's lean by all means the home intensity appeared yes but it didn't last long enough to control the match the secondary low
Mikey Morales: scoring expectation did did hold here. 102 .5 landed, but the market was expensive and never really became an official position either. My grade is a correct pass with a mixed matchup rate here.
Mikey Morales: The adjustment is two -sided. I'm upgrading out just slightly because of how... Confidently, they controlled the ball away from home. That's a big deal. I'm becoming more cautious about assuming that Porto Devo's home energy can sustain itself for 90 minutes. So the odd verdict here is a correct pass.
Mikey Morales: So this puts us into... the pending board, which was. going to be um Only one match at this time, but it it changed a little bit right here for us. So it's the South of Eagle did not receive a grade for us because of the foot fungus, as I call it. The original position was ah two and a half under at approximately approximately ah a minus for half a unit.
Mikey Morales: Playable through a minus 155 the match was postponed because of a fungus the foot fungus debacle of of um 2026. Whatever the sports books really.
Mikey Morales: like does with the original ticket. It will be recorded in the book rules. They gave me a. um a void here when i put it under i think i had put it in I want to say it was.
Mikey Morales: Um... Let me look here. I think I had put it in. an on hard rock bets um athletico malaga is also pending from wednesday but we had a under two and a half was the lean at a plus 105 with the plus 120 required so no result no grade we'll return to those those matches when the evidence really exists so for us So this puts us into our next category here, and it's processing the report card.
Mikey Morales: So after one official bet. and four decision audits here, what actually deserves to carry forward is the question. So for matchup. identification i really put a b plus here racing villa real and elvis were
Mikey Morales: identified pretty well. The Español Levante read was a real big miss, and Sevilla's win should not really erase how uncomfortable Rayo made the first half, and Deportivo's early intensity proved less sustainable than I expected.
Mikey Morales: OK, the game script, I would say here. Was it accurate? but also gives us the same B+. plus The strongest call was Racing's aggression interacting with Villarreal's equality. Alavese Tafel began as expected, but the red card before the red card.
Mikey Morales: Espanol showed that I underestimated the difference between having possession and doing something dangerous with it. right That's a big difference. Deportivos. Elche. I added a similar reminder. early home intensity does not automatically produce 90 minutes of control.
Mikey Morales: So the first 20 minutes indicators earns really an A - here. that did exactly what I wanted them to do. Mikado... Mika... Mikuadads? That's such a hard last I need to really look up how to pronounce it It's the Georgian striker for Villarreal could have reached racing's um goal here
Mikey Morales: um Roberto's fifth -minute opener told us Levante preferred script was already broken. Álvaro García's fourth -minute goal exposed Sevilla's built -up risk immediately. And Elche's three early attempts warned us that Deportivo were not going to control Rui Azor without resistance. The indicators did not. predictive.
Mikey Morales: every result they give us an early way to tell whether the original thesis was strengthened or weakening. strengthening or weakening care.
Mikey Morales: so price discipline gets an a minus as well we entered racing inside the boundary and beat the market's move we stayed away from levante at an expensive number we avoided laying a minus 280 on elvis under and we didn't chase deportiva after the home price moved from away from a plus 145. sevilla prevents this from being a clean a because the boundary was eventually reached but the record is unclear unless the move that move was monitored and logged in in real time So going forward, every lien with a trigger needs one of the two labels, actively monitored or researched only. Stock up.
Mikey Morales: So racing is something that is attacking identity, especially their willingness to attack directly and in transition. a stock down. I would say, is my assumption that Español's position could remain harmless.
Mikey Morales: They played with with much more purpose than I really expected. So the best decision here is passing an Alaves Hitafe under two and a half at a minus 280. And the biggest correction I'd say here is. Separating expected possession from expected penetration. And I need to. put more weight on penalty area entries.
Mikey Morales: Set peace threats wide deliveries and special attackers available to exploit the structure in the front of them So... One framework. change comes. out of all of this. Every featured edge report will now include an invalidation trigger. Not only what do I expect, but what could happen in the opening 15 to 20 minutes that would tell me this thesis is wrong.
Mikey Morales: That turns the first 20 minutes from viewing from a viewing guide really into an accountability tool. So that's the thing about the show. I want to learn. I want to adjust, refine this piece as the year as the seasons go by, right? And this could be also very different for each league. We've only covered La Liga so far.
Mikey Morales: So? This brings us into our next part and one of our last for today. His Thursday's assignment was his Premier League opening weekend.
Mikey Morales: So I don't know about you. But I'm excited about the Premier League. There's so many new things, new coaches, new teams, new stars coming into this league.
Mikey Morales: So i'm I'm not giving you a full handicap today. Mondays is is for identifying the questions. Thursdays for answering them, right? So the environment is full of uncertainty several clubs have changed managers Like I said three promoted teams are entering the league Of course, World Cup players had shortened preseasons. The transfer window is still open and some and still september for until September 1st, and some squads are being rebuilt while the matches are already being priced.
Mikey Morales: so this is this is kind of it is an interesting hot pot of things that combination really creates it like It... Makes an interesting tension here. So the market has to produce a number even when the evidence isn't complete.
Mikey Morales: So reputation can carry extra weight here. last season's teams, last season's manager. last season's league positions here. But some of these clubs may function very differently now. I have three early questions to ask for this Premier League season starting. Number one is.
Mikey Morales: Manchester City being priced partly on the badge. And what I mean by that is. City Open at... Home? Et. against Bournemouth at approximately, at this point as I'm checking, around roughly in two fifteen the minus 215 to minus 220 area.
Mikey Morales: Normally a heavy So.
Mikey Morales: as i I was just checking that too, just to fact check that. Normally a heavy City price at that he had would rarely register, but pe Pep is gone. Ando Maresca is in charge. And his first competitive match ended it in a 3 -0 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal. the Results doesn't automatically make Bournemouth a bat. One match shouldn't really erase City's talent. The question is is whether the market is pricing Manchester's name faster than it's pricing the transition.
Mikey Morales: And whether Bournemouth under Marco Ros can test the parts of marre maresco's Maresca's structure that looked uncomfortable against Arsenal. So that's the first question. Question two is which promoted club can really preserve its identity?
Mikey Morales: Coventry go to Arsenal. Hole hosts Manchester United. Ipswich hosts Sunderland. Home may be the most. revealing case here they may have the emotional lift of opening at home but they immediately face a united team that finished third last season can help play the soccer that really earned them promotion and and it was a very close promotion right there's a lot of things that had to go their way with the whole southampton gate um
Mikey Morales: And so there's a lot of. question marks there. Are they are they able to go into this league and make. games competitive. This is the same broad question racing answered. positively against Villarreal. Now we get to test whether another promoted side can do it in a different league and a different tactical environment.
Mikey Morales: Number three is does Newcastle Liverpool deserve a 3 .5 total? This is the match most likely to become Thursday's featured ad report.
Mikey Morales: Andoni Areola has taken over Liverpool with and with the aggressive vertical style we associate with his teams. Newcastle appointed Matthias Geisel on August 5th. The 38 -year -old is giving him a very little time to install his own pressing idea before facing one of the league's most talented attacks here.
Mikey Morales: So the...
Mikey Morales: Early market has Liverpool around a minus 105 with over three and a half approximately like a plus 105 to a plus 120. And the under around a minus one 45. Those are monitoring. Those are moderate. monitoring numbers not official positions the tactical question is obvious if both teams want to press and attack vertically do we get turnovers and transition chances here Or does the lack of preparation make one or both managers more cautious?
Mikey Morales: The personal questions matter just as much. Joe Gomez is expected to miss the opener for Liverpool. Jeremy Jacquet, and I'm interested if it's Jeremy, because he's I think he's French, and Jeremy Frimpong both played in the final friendly against Como. Jacquet scored, and Frimpong created the opener. So the concerns is less about whether they can appear and more about how quickly... a reshape defensive develops chemistry.
Mikey Morales: So Newcastle's transition is even more. compressed right here so I think it's Jaisal.
Mikey Morales: arrived late here the midfield has undergone major change and losing one of their biggest backbones not just to the midfield but to the team in a bruno grammar rush and the fullback group had been has been dealing with fitness concerns here that can create create a lot of volatility here but it can also make a new manager protect the game rather than unleash it so thursday's question won't simply be is liverpool better it will be what does the matchup become at game speed What would the what would invalidate the over -thesis in the first 20 minutes? And has the market already changed too much for the obvious chaos? So.
Mikey Morales: Newcastle, Liverpool is likely the featured report here. Manchester City, Bournemouth is likely the second edge match, but the prices are still moving here. The transfer window is still open and teams. Team news can change the entire. aboard here. So nothing in this section is an official play. That's the assignment for Thursday.
Mikey Morales: So the final lesson sin for today the biggest lesson is La Liga's evidence is not that the racing over 1. It's the pre -match opinion only because useful. It only becomes useful when we define three things around it. The expected game strict.
Mikey Morales: the event that could invalidate it and the maximum price we're willing to pay here. So Racings and Villarreal showed what it looks like when all three line up. We identified the interaction, entered inside the boundary, and watched the expected volatility appear. Espanyol and Levante showed why a lean must remain separate from a bet. The read was wrong, but the price never really qualified.
Mikey Morales: Alaves and Natafe showed why even a good tactical idea can be a terrible purchase. The match began the way we expected it. One red card changed it, and the and the minus 280 prize offered almost no protection from uncertainty.
Mikey Morales: So Sevilla Rayo Vallecano showed us one more thing. If a price trigger appears after the show, it needs to be monitored and documented and documented in real time. Otherwise, it remains kind of useful observation here, not a retroactive win.
Mikey Morales: So that's what these Monday audits are going to be about. No defending the pick here. no Not grading every opinion by the final score. Not turning leans into imaginary bets after we know the result. Results, tactical evidence, market accountability, process correction, the next assignment. Celta Osasuna will get a fresh market check before August 27th. Atletico and Malacca remain ungraded until Wednesday's match is played. So La Liga gave us our first evidence here. On Thursday, we take Edge Framework to the Premier League.
Mikey Morales: So that's where I leave off today's episode as I. um end our episode. I am going to implore you to go like and subscribe to our podcast where you can hear it on. um All right.
Mikey Morales: on Spotify or on... on Apple Podcasts or anywhere you can find it. You can unscribe. I love Shreve, it's one of my favorite places. I'll see you guys next time
