Transcript
Mikey Morales: Hey guys, welcome to another episode of the European soccer ed show Today we are starting off. with our first inaugural Thursday show.
Mikey Morales: This is going to be titled the La Liga opening weekend intel report. Because again, we're looking at Lolikas. Return. The return of the La Liga, but...
Mikey Morales: Barcelona. From Madrid. And to a degree, Atletico Madrid will not be. a part of the traditional opening act today. Or this week, I should say.
Mikey Morales: And strong strangely like strangely enough, I think that... makes this first weekend even more interesting in an odd way because instead of immediately focusing on the title contenders as we we did last week or this a couple days ago in our review of La Liga Our first evidence of the new season comes from the teams that maybe normally would be on the outside of that spotlight.
Mikey Morales: Maybe this is where we can find the edges on the outskirts of the teams that aren't. may be seen by the sports betting books. which promoted clubs actually look prepared for the jump.
Mikey Morales: which established teams may be carrying much more uncertainty than their reputation suggests. Which tactical ideas from preseason will survive once step those matches actually count?
Mikey Morales: And. Probably most importantly is where, if anywhere, has the best marketing market, most priced, that uncertainty. Because that's what the show is about. We're not simply trying to predict who wins. We're trying to understand how a match is likely to end. to unfold.
Mikey Morales: estimate how often that game script should occur, and then compare our expectations with the probability contained in the sportsbook prices. Sometimes. That leads to... A bet? Sometimes it's going to lead to a lean. And sometimes... ah The best decision is just to pass on. On that bet.
Mikey Morales: Today we're breaking La Liga's unusual opening match through the Edge framework. Our featured Edge match takes us to Bela Dolis, Bela Dos. for Celta Vigo against Osasuna.
Mikey Morales: Then we'll go deeper into racing Santander. their return to La Liga against Villarreal. We'll move through four additional matches on match day one radar. We'll bring the strongest positions together on the market. board And then we'll close this out.
Mikey Morales: well by finishing the weekend and watch list. It will include 90 second edge looks at. Different teams kind of. throughout the match day. ending. kind of give our little broad stroke of what it is that these matches are going to consist of.
Mikey Morales: So. Alright. our aspect of what we want to do today is we want to welcome you first of all to this cool show, this cool project that I'm getting to.
Mikey Morales: And like embark on in this endeavor. I'm really excited to have have my first Our first Thursday of kind of looking at this match day, but also not just that, but looking into. For a lot of people, it's maybe our first.
Mikey Morales: uh matched weak four these like American viewers of of the four European leagues. And in an odd way, I think it's... It might be a little.
Mikey Morales: Easy or hard on the eyes to look at this match these couple days of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday leading into our first match day of the four leagues without names like Barcelona, names like...
Mikey Morales: Like. ah um Real Madrid coming into this week. But I think there's a lot of things that we we can be able to talk through and also learn a little bit about some of these teams in La Liga. So before we get into the matches, I want to establish one distinction that's going to be. what's going to matter through the show. Whenever you hear me go about and talk about the edge score, that number is measuring my confidence in the market analysis.
Mikey Morales: How clearly do we understand the environment? How strong? Are the tactical dynamics how predictable is the game script? And how much confidence do I have in the assumption behind the analysis?
Mikey Morales: So the edge score doesn't... automatically mean that something is a bet. that's the verdict That's what the verdict is for. The verdict introduces the marketplace. So you may hear me.
Mikey Morales: Talk about an edge score of seven or even higher, followed by a lean or a pass. That's not a contradiction. it kind of just simply means i strongly believe in and i understand the soccer but the sports books understand it too and then they're giving it's giving us a favorable favorable enough number.
Mikey Morales: Because the goal isn't just to be right. The goal is to be right at a price that makes being right valuable. So with that established. Let's... Set the stage for match day one.
Mikey Morales: So we have and our first La Liga opening match brief. We're going to. we're going to Before we move into exactly the the edge reports, what we're going to do is we're going to establish the environment surrounding La Liga's opening week. Because there's a lot to unfold. and a lot of cool critical parts about this match week. So the new season officially begins on Saturday, but the opening round is is spread across nearly two weeks.
Mikey Morales: It's a little odd because this is... is not usually the traditional way of that. match weeks kind of go about. But it's the World Cup week. and um the people the la liga matchmakers may kind of knew that some of these big teams these big market teams are going to need some a little bit more rest because they probably played the most in in
Mikey Morales: um this summer's world cup so they needed a week off honestly they probably should have needed and a month off but That is so is the life of a soccer player. So the new season.
Mikey Morales: The six matches take place between Saturday and Monday. Atletico Madrid begins its season against Malaga, one of the promoted teams, on Wednesday. So we're not going to be talking about that. So the remaining fixtures involve ink. Valencia, Real Batiste, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad and Barcelona and Athletic Club come the following week.
Mikey Morales: So the reason is, again, the World Cup. Barcelona Real Madrid Atletico had their opening fixtures adjusted to provide the required recovery period for the returning World Cup players.
Mikey Morales: Again, some of these players, they're coming with tired legs. So that's gonna be a factor coming into this market. Yeah. Sent. Today's primary focus is mostly on the first Saturday through Monday window.
Mikey Morales: with one early look ahead towards the Atletico match. We're not going to be able to talk about it. too much in our Monday audit, but I think it's still worth going through. Saturday begins with... Deportivo Alaves against Hitafe.
Mikey Morales: Later, Sevilla Jose Rayo Vallecano. Sunday brings three matches and racing sent them dead. rich and racing sensitive returns to La Liga against Villarreal.
Mikey Morales: Spanish Host Levante. And Celta Vigo welcomes Osasuna. Monday then gives us Deportiva La Coruña against Elche. I have the little advantage of being ah Mexican, so I can say some of these words or some of these teams' names a little bit better. But there's like some that like the Santander is. I think a little bit harder.
Mikey Morales: So. this Instead of immediately and analyzing whether Barcelona, Real Madrid, or Atletico look ready to win the league, we're looking at teams with entirely different questions.
Mikey Morales: Promoted clubs. New managers. Changes in tactical structures. Late arrivals. Fitness uncertainty. and teams attempting to decide how much of the last season's identity can carry directly into this new one.
Mikey Morales: maybe even to this new league. promoted The promoted clubs are especially fascinating because Racing Santander and Deportivo La Coruña both begin at home. that gives them the the emotional edge.
Mikey Morales: Crowd energy, an opportunity to immediately show that soccer, that the soccer that earned promotion can survive against these top flight opponents. but promotion creates a technical dilemma.
Mikey Morales: What I mean by that. Do you continue playing aggressively because that's your identity? More. Does the increased quality of the opponent cause you to become more cautious when in play?
Mikey Morales: If you become too conservative, you... also may eliminate the strengths that give you that got you here. right but if you remain too aggressive the the mistakes were that were solvable and the signal that can suddenly become fatal errors If both fullbacks push forward.
Mikey Morales: Can you protect the transition? in the middle pause If the middle pauses, what happens if the opponent escapes the first line? If you insist on building from the back, can you your defenders really make that decision at La Liga speed?
Mikey Morales: That's the question there. That's going to be one of the questions I return throughout this episode. Opening opening weekend can also creates a challenge when evaluating teams entering new tactical periods. Preseason can show us what coaches want to do.
Mikey Morales: It doesn't necessarily show us what the coaches will do once league opponents become available. So a team that's pressed aggressively throughout July may become more.
Mikey Morales: far more conservative when the road to draw suddenly has has value there and a promoted club that played fearlessly during friendlies may feel that significance the significance of the occasion and kind of plummet in the stadium.
Mikey Morales: So that's why match day one deserves a different standard of confidence. We also have an op open transfer window. So that's going to make things a little bit different too. Some players are still arriving others may still leave several additions have had like limited very limited time with their teammates. So fitness information can change quickly in this time. and projected starting 11th, Crete. three or four days before kickoff should never be treated as matter of fact.
Mikey Morales: So all that matters when we're evaluating is prices. An established team may be favored because of reputation, but reputation doesn't automatically account for a new managers.
Mikey Morales: a new manager, incomplete fitness, tactical changes. or promoted. opponents playing if it's its first home match back in La Liga. At the same time, we shouldn't automatically back every promoted home team because the the atmosphere will be emotional. Quality it definite definitely matters.
Mikey Morales: Decision making also. like that speed matters too. Depth matters. And the jump between divisions is is definitely real. So our job is to decide whether the sportsbooks have properly priced both sides of that uncertainty. And one of the most intriguing places to apply this question is, like we said, the because Celta Vigo, Celta Vigo are the the better team on paper, right? They're at home. They finished sixth in... sixth place last season in La Liga.
Mikey Morales: But I'm not convinced that I'm a... that automatically makes them the money line. best bet. The better question may be, what kind of match can Osasuna force Celta? for it.
Mikey Morales: Celta to play. That brings us to today's featured edge match report. it's one i'm very excited for looking forward to as you guys had watched maybe the I'm... coming to you in this podcast on Wednesday night, kind of leading into Thursday morning. But one of our first ads.
Mikey Morales: pieces that we use an example for and i talked about why that was as are over two and a half goals for this UFS Super Cup. I didn't get to watch the highlights, but that doesn't really matter. I watched. PSG win 2 -1. Pretty predictable 2 -1 against Aston Villa.
Mikey Morales: They definitely showed a lot of upside and showed that they can actually stand their own. Again, it is a UEFA Cup match, and I think I had seen a stat that Unai Emery had lost, I think, five or six.
Mikey Morales: Um... Super Cubs -like. all back to back. He's never won one, but it's still pretty impressive that he's even been in five. It just goes to show the talent of being in able to that win that Europa League.
Mikey Morales: And he hasn't won the Champions League yet. So. Celta Vigo versus Osasuna. For the featured edge match this week, I want to really spread some extra time on Celta Vigo against Osasuna because that's exactly the type of matchup we're we're looking only. um last season's league table that can lead you toward the wrong but betting to conclusions there. So Celta finished sixth last season, like I said. also soona
Mikey Morales: finish much further down the table almost being relocated on the last match day it was a very wild ending to the last match day 38 by the way There were so many teams that were. almost relegated maybe one like point away from relegation and surprisingly Celta or. Osasuna was one of those teams.
Mikey Morales: So CELTA are at home. They they have managerial contingency. Continuity. I've noticed that word is kind of hard because I love to use it, but it's it's also pretty hard to say. Continuity. under Claudio Giraldez. And on the surface, this looks... like a pretty straightforward argument for the home side but once we start digging into the matchup i'm not sure the strongest betting question is actually will seltzer win But more so, I think more the. The question is, what kind of game is Osasuna going to force Celta to play?
Mikey Morales: And ultimately that's what leads me towards the total rather than the money line. So let's work through it. So E in our edge framework is for environment. the self -decide There are plenty of... There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Salta entering the season. Claudio Giraldes remains in charge. It's a big deal.
Mikey Morales: as we've talked about in the The primer going into these. leagues is there's tons of of teams coming in with new coaches, fresh ideas. So unlike several teams around La Liga, Celta aren't beginning ah August trying to install an entirely new tactical identity.
Mikey Morales: They know how to and they want to play. They want possession. They want to build through the midfield. They want players receiving the between the lines. They want to wing. the wingbacks or wide players stretching the opposition.
Mikey Morales: They want to create combinations around the penalty areas rather than simply through the hopeful crosses into the box. that continuity matters enormously in match day one. When several teams are still learning new new terminology, new pressing triggers, different build -up structures, Celta already possesses a shared tactical language there. So they've also had like...
Mikey Morales: in encouraging preseason two. They went through the preparations without losing, including a 4 -1 victory over Sassuolo and a draw against Napoli, two Serie A teams. So from a pure soccer perspective, so to probably deserve to be favored here. But there's a couple reasons I'm not immediately rushing towards that money line.
Mikey Morales: The first something is that. gets overlooked when we talk about their sixth place finishes. seltsa weren't particularly dominant. at home last season. They went six wins, five draws, and eight losses at home.
Mikey Morales: But interestingly enough though, they were actually considerably better. away from home. So when the opening week narrative becomes still to finish six, they're at home and they're playing a team that's struggled last year. and I don't want us to automatically. attach an enormous home field advantage that the evidence doesn't really necessarily justify. then we have to see the striker situation.
Mikey Morales: Borja Iglesias scored 14 goals last season. Didn't play I don't believe he played a minute in the World Cup, but he made it to the World Cup final 25 team So it shows his significance and a value to him. But because of his involvement with Spain over the summer, he only recently returned to training. like very recently Maybe he's available. Maybe he'll start. There's a difference between being medically available and being ready for 80 minutes. I think he definitely
Mikey Morales: Can do it. I don't know what the travel the parting kind of does for you, but It's something to be mindful of. That's why Ferran Jutgla becomes important here. He scored against... Napoli in their friendly match. He's had the benefit of the entire preseason and so to have alternatives All right. as well.
Mikey Morales: But. If... I'm evaluating an under. I'm certainly not going to ignore that possibility that Seltz's primary goal scorer may not be ready for his normal workload. So dynamics. This brings the... Osasuna question.
Mikey Morales: Now let's flip to the matchup. over Tosa Sunim. Because this is where I really think. things become much more interesting. also soon are entering in a new era under Luis Miguel Ramiz. And there's one characteristic that has followed Ramiz throughout his coaching career, and it's an emphasis on defensive organization.
Mikey Morales: He's a stronger singular division team Has they've generally. been compact with the ball and really difficult to break down. I think of it in a hit that fan and comfortable playing matches where the number of the clear chances remains relatively small too. That doesn't mean Osasuna are going to put 10 players behind the ball for 90 minutes. But think about their incentive in this part, though.
Mikey Morales: This is Remy's first league match watch with the club. It's his away match ah from home. It's against a team that's finished six. Why would Osasuna want to turn this game into a track meet? Their ideal scenario here may be also the exact opposite.
Mikey Morales: Keep the game. No, no allow satsa possession with where it it is dangerous close the midfield Force the ball outside make satsa repeatedly solve the compact. defensive block.
Mikey Morales: and then wait in isolated opportunities through Antet Budimir, Raul Moro, transition, or set piece. That's the game most of us really should want right here. And if it fits one, that's the most important statistical piece of this match. So Osasuna's away scoring problems is is legitimate last year. Last season they averaged around 0 .68 goals per away matches. That's pretty significant.
Mikey Morales: It doesn't mean they can't score here, but Amir remains an extremely reliable finisher. We've got to see it. um even him scoring in the World Cup for Croatia. If Celta commit to too many players forward, though, Osasuna have the ability to find one transition, one cross, one set piece, or one mistake. But that's different from believing that they're likely to sustain it. Offensive pressure eight and score two or three. times here.
Mikey Morales: When I built, when I kind of built out the likelihood. um tree that there aren't many branches where osasuna go to They're...
Mikey Morales: against this like against uh celta's home team game or home stadium and suddenly produce offensive explosion here my baseline expectation is much simpler Celta possession, Osasuna defending, Celta trying to find openings, Osasuna waiting for one or two moments where there's a match. the match gives them something that naturally pushes us towards a lower scoring outcome here So the bilay. pitch variable.
Mikey Morales: When we have one of the strongest variables of the opening we can hear. So it's the conditions of the boleros pitch. Celta have had dealt with the fungal issue affecting the plank surface, and there's been enough concern around it and the surface itself has become part of the match analysis. I want to be careful here. Poor pitch does not automatically mean under. Sometimes poor surfaces create chaos, defensive mistakes, bad touches, or unpredictable bounces. a player simply slip
Mikey Morales: slipping exactly the wrong moment can change. the game. So I don't want to take the simplistic approach of saying that bad field equals fewer goals. Definitely not. What I care about right here is which teams preferred style is more dependent on the surface behind. behaving normally.
Mikey Morales: And to me, that's that's pretty much Celta. They're expected to construct. They're the team expecting to combine through midfield. They're the team expected to dictate tempo. Osasuna maybe perfectly comfortable if this becomes slightly more broken and physical and ugly. So if the playing surface interferes with Celta's ability to move the ball quickly, that's another small little factor supporting the possibility that the favorites control territory without producing a large number of clean clean chances here.
Mikey Morales: So, theyll Almost we're done But we go on to the Jeep. Part of our edge framework, game script. So what does this match actually look like? Here's a game I'm expecting.
Mikey Morales: So for the first 15 or 20 minutes sell to probably control position Right. Match day one. But the percentage is not the number I really care about here. I care where the percentage occurs.
Mikey Morales: Seltzer repeatedly getting Iago Aspas and the other attackers players into the pocket between Osasuna's midfield and defensive line. That's a warning sign for the under.
Mikey Morales: If Osasuna can't protect the middle and Seltzer are immediately creating cutbacks through balls and touches inside the penalty area. Then we may have under. estimated celtas attacking ceiling here. but this But there's another reason, another version of 65 % possession that doesn't concern me nearly as much. Center back to center back.
Mikey Morales: Into midfield. Back outside. Switch to play. Cross gets cleared. Recycle. Start again. That can look dumb. that can look dominant on a broadcast graphic but if also soon are never being forced but to defend the spaces they actually want they want to protect, the possession can become almost...
Mikey Morales: like pretty just meh and just blend. That's why my biggest early indicator is Seltz's penetration versus Seltz's possession. Those are not the same thing at all.
Mikey Morales: you can have the ball without controlling the dangerous parts of the match here. So what I'm watching for from Osasuna. The second live. indicator of what's happening a million is What happens immediately after Seltaloo's possession?
Mikey Morales: Because Raul Moro potentially gives Osasuna pace. Budimir gives them a very reliable penalty area target. Osasuna don't necessarily need 10 successful transitions. They only need one or two.
Mikey Morales: If seltzer commit wing backs and midfielders forward and i was assuming
Mikey Morales: Osasuna consistently escapes from the counter press. Suddenly we get three versus three situation moving towards the Celta penalty area. So that's pretty dangerous for the under. But if those transitions keep dying around midfield, if Budimir becomes isolated, which I think will happen if Osasuna's forward pass repeatedly comes back, then the path towards a 1 -0 or 1 -1 or even a 2 -0 result becomes considerably stronger.
Mikey Morales: That's what I want to see right here. So. The last one. last part of our edge framework is expectation. Why I'm not betting against SELTA. So let's go to the price. Seltzer have around even money to approximately plus. 105 in the money line market.
Mikey Morales: That's where the the discipline matters right here. Do I think Celta are most likely to win that? Win. Manassas Osasuna, yes. Do I think Celta are the better team?
Mikey Morales: Yes. Would I be surprised if South to win nil? one to nil or two to nil. No, but there's... Non -relevant betting. question here.
Mikey Morales: The question is, is Seltz's probability of winning meaningfully higher than the probability I'm being asked to pay for? My rough numbers of Celta winning are is... ah ah roughly around 47 % of the time. So once we account for the bookmakers margin, that's very close to the worth of market already has them so around even money I don't see a major discrepancy here This is one of the ideas I want this podcast to really reinforce throughout the season. Correctly identifying the better team. The better team is not the same thing as identifying the better bet.
Mikey Morales: celta can win this game and the decision not to be not to bet their money line can still have been correct here i would become much more interested if celta drifted towards um under minus 115 maybe or uh,
Mikey Morales: plus 120 here. right so it's a plus 115 or plus 120. That existing range right now, I think that the market has done a pretty good job right there.
Mikey Morales: So where do I see the edge? The market I'm interested in is is the under two and a half goals. My reference price is around minus 143. And then we pull all of the variables together. I think the case becomes fairly coherent Osasuna scored only 0 .68. goals per Weight matches last season. That's pretty significant significantly Not not a lot of chances created here
Mikey Morales: So the beginning life under a coach whose teams have generally emphasized defensive stability in the Segunda División. It's match day one. until this primary striker may not be ready for his normal workload here not saying he's not starting i'm definitely not saying that i'm not saying he has tired legs by all means But there's still a chance there. We're potentially dealing with a compromising playing surface here too. And stylistically, Osasuna have a strong incentive to make Seltos solve a...
Mikey Morales: compact defensive structure rather than allowing the game to become open. So none of these factors individually is enough for me to make the bet. Together they create. Yeah.
Mikey Morales: So... Together, they create the thesis. The scorelines that appears most often in my outcome tree looks something like a Celta 1 or Sasuna 0, or maybe even both teams 1 -1, or even Celta 2 -0.
Mikey Morales: I think Osasuna's offensive ceiling is relatively limited. Unless Celta creates opportunities for them to turn over mistakes or... overly aggressive possessioning. And on the other side, I believe Celta may have to work extremely hard to consistently break down Ramiz's defensive block.
Mikey Morales: The counter argument here is, of course, we have to look at this. But I also want to make that like argument is that because there's no edge report without understanding what can kill the possession. The biggest danger is an early goal. Husserl to score in the first 10 minutes. ramices
Mikey Morales: Ramis can't simply stay compact forever. right eventually osasuna have to become more aggressive the game stretches celta gain transitions and we expected to finish 1 -0 can become 2 -1 surprisingly quick very quickly The other concern is of course poor surface.
Mikey Morales: Right, the pitch. It's not exclusively an underfactor. but One bad bounce, right? and We're already cooked. And certainly we get a cheap goal. That kind of.
Mikey Morales: What we thought about the tacticactile tactical superiority now is is put at a ah bland. so There's also uncertainty that natural that naturally comes with match day one and a new Osasuna manager.
Mikey Morales: Maybe Remy surprises us. Maybe Osasuna's press match. aggressively. rather than kind of on the... the block end part. park the bus end aspect to what he's we're used to seeing from him maybe celta's attacking alternative looks significantly sharper than anticipated this isn't 9 out of 10 edge of course but i don't believe that the sportsbooks have completely missed the match i believe there's a moderate probably the advantage of a specific price. And that's a distinct matter right there. So the final.
Mikey Morales: aspect is my most likely overall story is celta controlled the ball also soon attempt to control the space neither team generating enough consistent high quality chances for the match to become especially open So it's um more likely to to win for sure, but they're not.
Mikey Morales: significantly they're significantly for even money for me The total is different at approximately minus 143 on an under two and a half. I still find enough probability advantage to justify a small position.
Mikey Morales: Because we're dealing with match day one uncertainty. New Osasuna coach, direct your questions. in An unusual pitch situation. I'm keeping the stake. pretty controlled so half unit My projected score is SELTO.
Mikey Morales: 1 also so not 0 And my ad score again like we had talked about was a seven point three out of ten The verdict bet is under two and a half goals with a half unit stake, right? Research price was at approximately one 43. I'd say the odd boundary here. I'd play this only at is ah a. ah minus 155 or better. If the market moves beyond minus 155, I wouldn't chase it. the soccer opinion may remain exactly.
Mikey Morales: the same. But the... The bet doesn't have to. So the second edge match report that we're going through this brings us to Mean I'm again. I'm working on these like Spanish pronunciations. I should know this but Racing Santander. And I love their colors. The type of green they use is really cool. And then the yellow submarines in Villarreal.
Mikey Morales: Racing Santander against Villarreal. So. This is going to be played in El Sardinero. Instead of asking whether one team can really slow down the game.
Mikey Morales: I'm interested in whether the interaction between these teams. naturally create opportunities at both ends. Because the simple and our interpretation of this match is... is
Mikey Morales: pretty obvious villarreal finished third in la liga last season They have Champions League's expectations. They possess significantly more proven top flight quality. Racing Santander are a newly promoted team and they're playing their first La Liga match in 14 years. So the natural reaction here is that Villarreal's are better. They take Villarreal.
Mikey Morales: Take Villarreal, but the better team doesn't automatically produce the betting the best betting market and once we examine the matchup i'm much more interested in the total So environment here. Start with the the occasion here, right? So there should be an emotional atmosphere. El Sardinero.
Mikey Morales: Racing supporters have been waiting more than a decade for this. And for the first 15 to 20 minutes could be really extremely revealing. Because promoted teams at a home... at home often make have to make decisions without like verbally making one right and so do we attack the
Mikey Morales: Do we attack the occasion or do we protect ourselves from it? racing an earned promotion by attacking majoritively. So they scored 90 goals last season. this is not This isn't a team built around sitting in a low block. Hoping to survive.
Mikey Morales: Jose Alberto Lopez created a simple a side willing to commit players forward, combine around the ball and trust. It's attacking identity. Bracing also conceded a lot of goals. They conceded 61 goals. That tells us something about the trade -off.
Mikey Morales: The aggression that makes racing dangerous also creates vulnerabilit vulnerability. And errors that the Segunda opponents fail to punish again may suddenly become pretty clear against a team like Villarreal.
Mikey Morales: So there's also some psychological history here too that I thought was pretty interesting. Part of helpful of the of making the right bet here, right? So Racing defeated Villarreal 2 -1 at El Santen Sardinero in the Copa del Rey last December.
Mikey Morales: Different competition, right? different Villarreal manager as well. Different. but um potentially different lineup too so i'm not using the result as predictable evidence But psychologically racing already, no, Villarreal can be kind of troubled at the stadium. So there shouldn't be an overwhelming. overwhelming and intimidation factor here.
Mikey Morales: Villarreal. They also begin a new tactical era under Inigo Perez after finishing third and scoring 72 goals last season. Perez is coming come ah from a really good stint in Rayo Vallecano, and I love his coaching style. The early signs kind of suggest a more aggressive approach here, more pressure, more like versatility here, and overall more like willingness to attack.
Mikey Morales: um quickly after turn turnovers so pre -season recourse isn't proof but the idea in in tracked directly with racing strength and weaknesses. So the dynamic piece.
Mikey Morales: This is a defining matchup here. Racing or comp... comfortable moving players towards the ball, interchanging, creating small combinations, and attempting to play through pressure rather than simply cleaning clearing it, right? So against this aggressive Villarreal press, that creates both opportunity and danger.
Mikey Morales: so if racing attract the first pressure and play around it they can potentially attack the space villarreal leave behind sergio canales becomes particularly important here new signing He is racing someone capable of receiving under pressure, controlling the pace of possession, and finding teammates between the line. Inigo Vicente and Andres Martin give the additional players capability of operating under those spaces too.
Mikey Morales: And, uh, I started Villa, Villa Libre. which I love his name, but I love his beard even more. It gives them a ah really reference higher up in the field. So phrasing solved the five the first wave right there. they create really good chances here. But if they don't.
Mikey Morales: That's the dangerous part right there. Villarreal can regain possession close to the goal with racing structure already stretched and the individual attacking quality of an of a Nicholas. pepe ioc perez uh george this is always hard because of for the georgians for their last name God. Dads.
Mikey Morales: Alberto Molero. Players capable of attacking spaces carrying the ball combining quickly and turning on a bad pass in an immediate scoring opportunity. That's dangerous So that's why i'm I'm hesitant to bet racing, even though I respect their attacking ability. I think racing can create. I'm much less confident that they can prevent Villarreal from creating too.
Mikey Morales: so the second tactical piece here is how racing defend of course we said talked about they conceded 61 goals in the segunda division Their back line will want to step forward and support the press that's essential of racing want to keep the team connected but against Villarreal every step forward carries risk right so if Villarreal escaped the first pressure suddenly these Defenders may be running towards their own goal foreign And that's where the increased speed of La Liga become obvious. A center back can really can make the correct decision nine times.
Mikey Morales: But one simple like misstep right there against a level of attackers can become a one on one versus one right there. The goalkeeper situation alters is it also deserves attention. Julian, I agree, Sabala.
Mikey Morales: Agra Zabala. Has recently arrived. He was the backup for ah Unai Simon, an athletic club. and He has limited time in preparing with this defense in front of him, too. If he starts, I'm interested in to see. um more than like saves more kind of just aspects of communication you know his starting position Decisions under pressure.
Mikey Morales: And Weather Racing trusts him to participate in the build -up too. A goalkeeper can improve the position individually while still needing time to understand exactly how the new defense wants to behave here. So against the high press, those communications details become really important.
Mikey Morales: So... We're on G now and game script. Now consider the first goal scenario here. Villarreal score first. What does racing do? I don't expect him to shut the game down by all means. It's a turn to La Liga. They're playing at home. The crowd is going to demand a response, right? and Their new identity is based around attacking. So racing should commit additional players.
Mikey Morales: forward, right? This gives them a path to an equalizer, but it also gives Villarreal more opportunities to transition in open spaces. That's good for the over. Now flip it. If Racing scored first, El Sardinero explodes.
Mikey Morales: Confetti is everywhere. Confidence rises. Villarreal have to push there. Their defensive spacing become more aggressive and racing suddenly have transition opportunities on their of their own. They also can support the over right here. So interestingly, both first goal scenarios can push to us towards that same betting conclusion. The script that concerns me is the nil -nil after 30 or 35 minutes. If Villarreal survived the emotional start, calm the crowd, and establish control as the La Liga team that's been there, the vets here, also Champions League vets.
Mikey Morales: coming into this season, the game can become much more tactical. So at that point, 1 -0 or even 0 -0 become much more realistic. So if you're watching the opening 30 or 20 match, 20 minutes, I want...
Mikey Morales: Three answers. Can racing consistently play through Villarreal's press? Can Villarreal attack the space behind Racing's defensive line? And does the tempo remain high after the first emotional surge? If yes, yes, and yes, then the pre -match of our thesis is is appearing on on the field as we speak.
Mikey Morales: So the last period piece is expectations. You can also say in price there too. So during my research at Villarreal, we're around a plus 120 on the money line. Racing were like a plus 215 here. The draw was at a plus 245. My estimated probability was roughly 45 % Villarreal, 31 % racing and 24 % draw.
Mikey Morales: So Valerian more likely. winners here but a plus 121 implies a probability of approximately. 45 .5 that's almost identical to my own projection here so villarreal can win without villarreal being a good bet here. So the most more interesting mark is is over two and a half goals. My expected goal projection is approximately 1 .3. for racing and 1 .65 for Villarreal. That's...
Mikey Morales: around three combined expected goals. So the score cluster include one -on -ones or one -on -one, one to two, and potentially two -two if the game becomes especially open here. My official official projected score is Racing Santander 1, Villarreal 2.
Mikey Morales: During my research, over two and a half was about, I found it was a. um Uh, minus 120. So that the price implies around a 54. point five percent so my estimate is closer to 458 so that gives us an advantage here not a huge one but enough for a small position.
Mikey Morales: What can kill the bet? There's several ways of...
Mikey Morales: ah the over fails. So that's like we said, Villarreal may be conservative and in, in Eagles Perez's first competition match that. um, his preseason matches suggest too. So racing may decide that La Liga requires a more cautious approach. One of the attacking lineups may be weaker than expected, or an opening half hour simply doesn't reduce the intensity we kind of projected here. And because that advantage is relatively small, this isn't something I want to chase. So minus 21, interesting. Minus 25, still playable.
Mikey Morales: Minus 130. five or minus 140 now we're paying away away too much of the edge right So my final edge assessments is is edge score seven out of 10. The verdict back is ah over two and a half. half a unit here.
Mikey Morales: approximately Oh. a minus 120 here, right? So the minus 120 or better.
Mikey Morales: or I should say ah ah odds boundary I put as a minus 125 or better. I'm not betting Valorant because I think they're more likely to win. I'm betting the interaction. racing ex The racing's aggression here filled Riel's ability to punish the resulting space. and the pause The possibility of either their first goal causes the trailing team um to become even more aggressive. Small edge, small position, but a clear boundary.
Mikey Morales: So... Our match that brings us to our match. One. Match Day 1 radar. We've completed the two deeper edge reports. So now we're going to move a little bit faster. This is match day one radar for additional matches here for each one. I want to answer three things, right? Those three things is what's the main soccer question right here? What should we watch during the first 20 minutes? And does the current market give us something worth betting? This isn't where we manufacture extra pigs.
Mikey Morales: It's an interesting match with insufficient prices. price advantages. It's a completely acceptable conclusion. Let's start with Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano. So central question right here, I should say where, when Sevilla and right. Rayo Vallecano play is they play on Saturday, 3 .30 p .m. Eastern time.
Mikey Morales: So. So there you are. They have. the more recognizable badge, right? they've been in the top flight for years now. the large they have larger expectations and probably the higher individual ceiling But reputation doesn't automatically tell us how to prepare the current team how prepared the current teams are.
Mikey Morales: rio or adjusting under Benyat San Jose. And there's legitimate defensive questions here. Sevilla, meanwhile, appear capable of becoming more organized under Luis Garcia Plaza, but this remains a squad containing young players, no rivals, and plenty of match one -day certain uncertainties.
Mikey Morales: So during the first 20 minutes, watch where I was left side. canivia isolate Can They create overloads and... Can they constantly make runs behind the defense?
Mikey Morales: Then watch the quality of Rios' possession. Because if Rios have the the ball, but Sevillac remain comfortable and create more dangerous transitions, that's actually a positive signal for the home side. But if it's... a player like a palazon and or alvaro garcia begin
Mikey Morales: finding spaces early, my confidence into VI drops pretty quickly. I prefer Sevilla from a soccer perspective. at approximately uh plus 120 or plus 125 during my research However, I don't.
Mikey Morales: ah See enough price advantage. So that's why I put it at a six point one in my edge score out of ten So the verdict was a pass The best available price I found approximately was one plus 120 or plus 125. So the odds boundary I put was like a Sevilla.
Mikey Morales: becomes a little interesting at ah at a plus 130 there. We're not chasing, we're passing on this. So... Deportivo La Caruña versus El Che. This is... Another promoted team. So they.
Mikey Morales: This is one of the matches i'm not I'm more interested in what we learn than what we bet. So the main question here is whether Deportivo's promotion momentum and upgrade attack immediately translates to... la liga because they have a player in uh obama young that is one of if not my favorite strikers of all time.
Mikey Morales: Um, He is pretty old now, and I feel like he's been gone out of the picture for for a while. He was playing for Marseille, and I think I i will say he he was playing ah ah pretty good still.
Mikey Morales: um So the main question is is, yeah, really the momentum right there for Deportivo. Also, can Elche's more established structure really absorb that emotional first wave? this is Again, three promotion teams. Deportivo is coming at a home game. So the the way they play is the rayazor. It should be pretty loud.
Mikey Morales: Deportivo should begin a pretty aggressively, and the rival of Obama Young, but I should say pi Pierre Obama Young. gives the promoted team a different attacking ceiling than we normally. associate with the club making the jump but elche are not simply arriving to survive under martin and selby they've
Mikey Morales: demonstrated an ability to play through pressure and adjust their shape during different phases. So in the first 20 minutes, watch Deportivo's press. Are they actually forcing turnovers or are they simply just running aggressively while Elche play through them? Then watch Deportivo's fullbacks. If they push forward but the midfield press isn't winning possession, Elche can attack the space behind. So I prefer Deportivo. I just don't love the price.
Mikey Morales: So I but gave it an edge score of a 6 .4. um, out of 10. so the verdict was a lean towards deportivo but it passed at the current number right here The best available price I saw was a plus 137. So the odd boundary I put here was ah a plus 145 or better.
Mikey Morales: So... The next game we have is Español versus Levante. Third. So the main question right here is, can Espanol turn expected possessions? into genuine chances against a Levante side that becomes considerably more organized under Luis Castro. Espanyol should have more of the ball, but I can... i can Much more.
Mikey Morales: Uh, I. care much more about where they have the ball to. So if Espanol have 60 % possession by so this.
Mikey Morales: but spend most of the match circulating outside Levante's defensive structure, that's not necessarily dominance. So in the first 20 minutes, which watch the central piece spaces. Can Espanyol get players receiving between the lines and produce the cutbacks? Can they consistently get... behind the ball, then watch Levante's immediately after regaining possession. If Carlos Alaves and Ivan Romero begin finding transition opportunities to visitors become increasingly interesting.
Mikey Morales: Levante is plus half a goal as well. is my preferred direction but around a minus 125 we're playing we're paying too much for that protection I gave a 7 .2 out of 10. So the verdict was a lean with the Levante plus. um, plus 0 .5 handicap here The available price I found was a... uh Uh,
Mikey Morales: Oh. I think I was a plus 125. to the end. Or minus 125, I should say. The odd boundary I put was ah a minus 110 here. So strong matchup read, not yet a strong wager.
Mikey Morales: So our radar for of our match day was is the Wednesday afternoon match. We won't have a time to audit this game, um this match as well. but it's It's worth taking or worth seeing as Atletico Madrid, one of my favorite like ah Spanish teams in Malaga.
Mikey Morales: So... The obvious question here, at course is of course, is whether Athletico's enormous talent advantage immediately becomes a comfortable comfortable opening weekend. Victory.
Mikey Morales: Or I should say opening weekday victory. On paper, they should dominate. They have home field advantage, more individual quality, a promoted opponent. um But Atletico's preparation has been unusual because several important players advanced deep into this World Cup. So I don't want to automatically translate territorial dominance into three or four goals. During the opening 20 minutes, let's watch for one is Julian Alvarez like on the field. That's for sure. But also, are they pressing sharply?
Mikey Morales: Are they combining? combinations around the penalty area. Are they repeatedly like entering Malika's box? Are we seeing slower possession? and imperfect timings here.
Mikey Morales: Malika's approach really matters too. If they're brave enough.
Mikey Morales: to press and counter rather than simply defend their box, the game could become more open. So Atletico's money line doesn't interest me. The total does here. My preferred game script is something like an 1 -0 or 2 -0 Atletico with a 7 .2 out of 10 edge score here. So my verdict was a lean for under two and a half goals. I found a plus 105 here. And the odd boundary I would need here is a plus 120 or better.
Mikey Morales: So the market board is our next part and one of our last parts of today. We're kind of examine the soccer. This is where the number because the numbers become more.
Mikey Morales: accountability, and this and the numbers here. So. for the market board i'm putting four positions on today's board because they illustrate four slightly different situations two official bets that we have one lean,
Mikey Morales: and one pass. That gives us a much better picture of the process than pretending every good matchup and read deserves a wager here. I also want to track two prices throughout the season, the research price, the number available when I built the report, and the recording price, which for this episode are do remain the same.
Mikey Morales: Okay. But... we will have that differentiation. So that's the the recording price is the number available when I actually record this episode. Because I think those two sometimes can be different in in in... podcast shows i've seen before so then on the audit we'll compare those numbers with where the market eventually closed So let's start with the featured edge position.
Mikey Morales: So we had, again, Celta Vigo versus Osasuna's under 2 .5. We did the verdict. It was a half unit bet. Here was the verdict. It was a bet. And the stake was a a half unit. So the research end for this episode, the recording price, was a minus 143. And I said the betting boundary here is a minus 155. The argument and is pretty straightforward. Osasuna's poor away scoring. rami's likely defensive priorities, possibly.
Mikey Morales: Possibly. Borja Iglesias workload, or at least the absence. Seltos needs to solve a compact block and the potential impact of playing. the playing surface my expected game script is celta controlling more possession than clean chances the primary danger is an early goal that forces osasuna out of the preferred structure so celta osasuna under two and a half half a unit playable through a minus 155
Mikey Morales: so go search around use maybe pick it look at and find around like what's What is... you know, some one minus 155 or better. So market board two is, again, racing Santander versus Villarreal's over two and a half. I've said the verdict was a bet and stake was a a half unit I'm putting down here. The research this time for the research and recording price is the same. It was a minus 120.
Mikey Morales: i Put as a playable Play. playable boundary here. Is we wouldn't go past a minus 125. This is the opposite type of bet here We're we're betting interaction racing want to attack failure rail should press racing can create if the plate if they play through that pressure failure Villarreal can punish them if they don't.
Mikey Morales: Neither team scoring first could increase the amount of space available here. So my primary my primary concern is a slow opening half hour that allows Villarreal to calm the occasion here. So racing Villarreal over two and a half, half a unit playable through a minus 125.
Mikey Morales: So we have our market board three here. This is Espanol versus Levante. Levante having a... 0 .5 handicap over here.
Mikey Morales: So. I put the verdict as a lean. I said research price was approximately a minus 125 as well as the recording price. The play to boundary was a minus 120. Minus 110. I like the matchup. I like Levante's ability to defend compactly. I'm not convinced that Spaniel's expected possessions automatically produce enough high Quality offense, so I'm not willing to play to pay minus 125 for that protection minus 110
Mikey Morales: hmm like now we can talk here until until then the correct classification is is a lean Not a bet here, though. So last but not least, we have on our market board for. four is Alaves versus Getafe.
Mikey Morales: So under two and a half, our final. our And finally, our pass. was Our verdict was a pass here. research was um approximately ah minus 280, and the boundary we put was a 230 or better. This really was a pass here. This may be the most educational position.
Mikey Morales: educational position on the entire board because i strongly expect a low scoring game here and i' i'm still not betting it at a minus 280 the market is charging us an enormous premium for the exact same conclusion so my probability is insufficiently different from the sports book so even if this match finishes nil nil the pre -match pass can still have been the correct decision here of an under two and a half for Alaves versus Hatafe.
Mikey Morales: So... Today's board. is Celta Vigo Osasuna. Under two and a half. Erasing something dead over two and a half. Both of those being bets that were putting half the unit on. Levante against Espanyol.
Mikey Morales: A half -er. 0 .5 handicap lean. um And all of us hit that fit under. 2 .5 a pass here though because we were requiring a 230 best thing we found was a 280.
Mikey Morales: So two bets, one lean, one pass. And every one of them comes to the boundary. Because one once the price is crosses the boundary, the soccer opinion may remain exactly the same while the betting de decision changes. That's the market board.
Mikey Morales: So our... One of our last things we're going to look at really briefly is our opening weekend watch list. Before we close. I want to finish my opening weekend watch list with... one match to watch one team under the microscope and one player which i did talk about Um, which is a little hint. And one tactical question that should... that could teach us something about the weeks ahead.
Mikey Morales: So the match to watch, I'd say, is Deportivo Alaves versus Getafe. So I didn't I specifically didn't talk about it up. and um again in our like going through each games so this is going to be a really quick brief of why we should watch this game Deportivo.
Mikey Morales: I'll have a second to talk there. The question here is, can Alaves create enough quality chances against a Hatafe team that's very uncomfortable turning matches into physical, low event battles?
Mikey Morales: It's like they're notorious force for it. Jose his identity is it's pretty clear. Getafe wants duels, second balls, direct plays, and compact defensive structures. Talking about Haram ball, Getafe invented this.
Mikey Morales: Alaves, meanwhile, should also be comfortable playing with three centerbacks and protecting central areas. So this isn't the ingredient for a match where both teams may struggle to consistently attack the opponent's weak areas. The first 20 minutes, what I'm watching is in these two, in these.
Mikey Morales: Two things is right here is first, can Alaves play through Hitafa's pressure instead of simply being pushed towards crosses or long balls? And second, watch the availability and the effectiveness of Lucas Boy.
Mikey Morales: If he's absent or or clearly limited, all of us lose an opportunity, an important physical. presence like alongside tony martinez and that makes their attack much easier for hitafa to manage if the opening looks Like repeated mind midfield duels long duels fouls are very few clean penalty areas then expect the low scoring script
Mikey Morales: It's going to be confirmed. But there's the betting problem here, like we said earlier. The market already knows this. So under two and a half goals. has been pretty has price has
Mikey Morales: priced extremely aggressively so i don't want to pay a massive premium just because i expected a low scoring game the best possibility could be a first half under or under 2 .25 if the price is more reasonable especially if boy is ruled out for now that though this is an interesting match with insufficient price advantage here I gave them as the edge scores a 7 .3 out of 10.
Mikey Morales: But the verdict was ultimately a pass with an under lien if the price improves. So maybe you can find it. Available price I found on under 2 .5 was around to minus 280. So the odd boundary I put would pay what I would play under two and a half only at a 230 or better So the team I put under the microscope is, it would have to be for this match day week is Sevilla.
Mikey Morales: Because Sevilla may be one of the better examples this season of the difference between reputation and current reality here. It's a badge we naturally associate with European soccer. Major expectations and a squad. capable of competing near top of La Liga.
Mikey Morales: If they wanted to. and if they had the income for it. But the current version of Sevilla has to earn those assumptions again. Against Rayo, I want to see whether Luis Garcia Plaza has already created something structurally reliable. When Sevilla lose possession, are the players connecting, right? Can they defend transitions without immediately going into emergency mode? When they have possession, are they attacking movement?
Mikey Morales: movements coordinated or are they simply waiting for individual player to produce something which we saw last year Sevilla don't need to be spectacular. on opening weekend. Like that's not what we're looking for. if They simply look organized, connected and purposeful. I'll become more optimistic about them moving forward. If the match becomes stretched and chaotic immediately, I may downgrade them in
Mikey Morales: the next few weeks so a player to watch is of course one of my favorite players of all time is Pierre and Marie Aubameyang, which I love. that he's back in La Liga. and player tomon My player to monitor is him for sure for Deportivo. It's not simply because he's the most recognizable name on the promoted team. Promoted clubs frequently have one massive question. Where are their goals coming from?
Mikey Morales: Obama Young potentially gives Deportivo an answer. most promoted clubs don't have. elite level experience movement behind defenses penalty area instincts and stinks and enough reputation that opponents have to account for where he is even when he hasn't really touched the ball. But I don't want to evaluate his first game purely whether he scores.
Mikey Morales: Watch his movement. Can Deportivo find him early? Does his presence force Alche's defense deeper? Can he connect with the midfield? And when does Deportivo's... deportivo does press is he part of that collective structure a deportivo can integrate obama young without losing the identity that earned promotion that could significantly altered. the survival ceiling.
Mikey Morales: And the last but not least part we have is the tactic question. to tactical question. So my final tactical question of match day one is this. Will the promoted clubs continue playing with the quote confidence that seemed that they earned from... that got in promotion? or Will La Liga's increased quality cause them to abandon their identities?
Mikey Morales: Racing and Deportivo both began at home. They should receive enormous emotional energy, but emotion cannot organize a breath. It can't...
Mikey Morales: We can't protect the space behind a fullback and it cannot determine when a center back should step forward versus when he needs to drop. Those details matter. So watch those three things. How do the pro promoted teams defend? Do they press collectively or individually? and what happens immediately after they lose possession. The third question may be the biggest one right here. Attacking confidence is good, but even...
Mikey Morales: Turn. But if every turnover leaves the three defenders ex exposed against La Liga attackers, confidence becomes recklessness. very quickly here. So what I want to see is promoted teams that remain brave and connected. If racing and Deportivo can do that.
Mikey Morales: we may have two teams much better prepared for survival than the market initially assumes.
Mikey Morales: Our closing segment here, right? So this is our La Liga opening match day intel report that we have completed here. The featured edge position takes us to Valedos with the Celta Vica against Osasuna under two and a half goals. Our second was racing Santander again to Villarreal over two and a half goals, ah both respectively with half a unit on it. So Levante plus half a goal remains a lean and Alaves against Hitafik gives us perhaps the best example of a pass, a game where I strongly believe in a soccer read, but refuse to pay the price being asked for it. That's the discipline I want to show to maintain through the season. We don't need actions in every match. We don't need to pretend every opinion represents market value. And we shouldn't judge every analysis solely by whether one ball crossed the goal line or stayed out.
Mikey Morales: On Monday, we'll return to the expectations shin's established today. We'll compare our research prices with the closing market. We'll ask where the expected game script actually appeared. Did Celta control possessions whilst Asuna controlled space? Did racing in Villarreal create that?
Mikey Morales: up the open but transitions we expected? And did Alaves and Hitaba turn their matches into the physical low event contest where we predicted even though the under wasn't worth betting?
Mikey Morales: We'll examine which risks became important and what's the analysis. what they got right. What did go wrong? and whether the final result reflected the quality of the reasoning or simply disguised it. Because over a full season, individually individual results are always going to be fluctuating. The goal isn't to build a... process that
Mikey Morales: The goal is to build a process that doesn't. fluctuate this is the european soccer edge enjoy the opening weekend and i'll see you guys on the other side of match day one
