Transcript
Mikey Morales: Welcome to the inaugural first episode the European Soccer Ed Show. I am your host, Mikey Morales.
Mikey Morales: I'm one, first of all, really excited to get this podcast on the road. Feels like it's been like such a long soccer season and we haven't even started it.
Mikey Morales: So I'm excited to be able to get to start this this bad boy the right way by being able to discuss sports. these four leagues, what it's about, maybe giving new listeners, not just to the show, but also just new listeners to the soccer sports betting world, to the European soccer world.
Mikey Morales: Maybe some listeners that are just wanting to get into this thing we call European soccer, right? So before opening season, every team carries a story.
Mikey Morales: There's some defending champions that are supposed to be better than they they left off last year. There's maybe some signings that are supposed to be solving problems.
Mikey Morales: Maybe new managers that are promising tactical differences that are actually going to change things in the club. And clubs that finished strongly last season that are vouching to get one piece closer to that glory that they've been looking for.
Mikey Morales: But as you and I know, expectations are not evidence and reputation doesn't always reflect what the team will actually take on the field. that uncertainty is what makes the beginning of the European soccer season. So interesting.
Mikey Morales: Again, across La Liga, across the premier league, Syria and the Bundesliga, there's familiar teams that maybe people have heard of, maybe Americans that are just getting into these, into the European soccer that I've heard of. Maybe a AC Milan for Manchester United of ah a Borussia Dortmund.
Mikey Morales: They're, They're actually some of them are closing that gap and some of them. The gap can be further than that was even seasons before.
Mikey Morales: So other clubs are also kind of also receiving some confidence from the public, from the betting market. And we're going to see if that's justified. So today I'm not going to predict every league table or pretend that I already know how these stories went.
Mikey Morales: What we're going to do is we're going to map the season ahead of us. to It's a long, grueling season, especially for some of these top clubs, these top players who've played you know while some teams were in drinking um um some martinis in Cabo.
Mikey Morales: Other teams and other players were were playing for a month and some players were playing three games up in a week and a half.
Mikey Morales: And not just any game, but World Cup games that are grueling, tasking mentally, emotionally. That are coming into this season. So by the end of this episode, you'll understand the most important questions facing the European four major leagues and really develop developments that could reshape the season.
Mikey Morales: This is the European soccer edge. So let's start with the lead that will give us our first answers. And that is La Liga. But I'm also getting a little bit ahead of it myself, if I'm being honest. Because one thing that we really want to do is I want to briefly explain why i created this show and what I hope it can become, really.
Mikey Morales: So my connection to the European soccer, to European soccer, really begins with the experience of being a fan. The first time I ever watched european soccer it was 2011 it was very similar to where we are now for some fans i just seen my very first world cup in the south africa 2010 world cup and i had seen a beautiful masterpiece in la roja winning their first ever world cup and i i saw the the a lot of the players who were playing in that 2010 world cup with spain and the netherlands also playing in in this match that I randomly turned the TV on for. It was on Fox TV, and I saw it said Barcelona versus Manchester United. and And genuinely, the rest is history. It ended up being one of the best matches I had seen in my life, not just in soccer, but in in any sport.
Mikey Morales: And one man by the name of Lionel Messi, i'm funny enough, as we kind of think back now 15 years ago, 15 years fast forward, and he still was making a big difference into maybe why some of the viewers right now were so are listening to this podcast and and other soccer podcasts um coming into this season.
Mikey Morales: But that really, that game, David Villa, Lionel Messi, Wayne Rooney on the other side, even named the players in the Manchester United team that were in that game. But they were all showing me one thing about European soccer, that it's it's a beautiful game, and that it's also such a beautiful sport.
Mikey Morales: And getting to see these four leagues on a week-to-week basis is just magic. I would end up watching growing up, being maybe one of the only people in my in my school and felt like my city and my family. I was watching these games on Saturdays i in in the West Coast, being three hours behind in the East Coast now. would watch the Premier League at 4 or 5 a.m. and then watch La Liga in the p.m.s, like 12 p.m. And then on Sunday, watch the Bundesliga in Bayern playing Borussia Dortmund. And then Serie A games on Sunday with the AC Milan playing Inter Milan.
Mikey Morales: And it just I just fell in love with the game. And I fell in love with soccer through watching these four leagues. So I love every weekend. and that Every weekend gives us new stories to follow. Different title races. Four, actually. Different tactical battles coming from cultural ties. Different emerging players. Struggling giants also. And I'm excited to see which those which giants those are this season. And clubs trying to prove the expectations.
Mikey Morales: Maybe we're wrong. So the more I followed the sport, the more I wanted to understand what was happening beneath the final score. And that's following soccer and European soccer from the United States. And that can be very, very overwhelming, really lonely as well.
Mikey Morales: So the matches are spread across different days, leagues and streaming services. Right. So this isn't going to be your your good old NFL um ticket that we're going to be watching all in one place. It's going to look a little different. There's transfers, right? A little bit different also from from NBA four-team trades. There's injuries. There's managerial changes.
Mikey Morales: And the European competitions constantly reshape the picture. And before you have really fully processed one weekend, the wreck the next round of matches is already approaching.
Mikey Morales: So and if you follow the betting conversation surrounding sports, you face another challenge. Those are the countless odds and opinions available, but often very little explanation of the soccer reasoning behind it.
Mikey Morales: That's why I invented the European Soccer Edge. I created the podcast really to help American fans understand the most important developments across La Liga, the Premier League, Serie A, And the Bundesliga without really feeling like they need to follow every headline or know every player on every roster. That's not what this podcast is about. My goal is really to be able to be the knowledgeable friend who's kind of done the research and can sit down with you before the weekend really starts.
Mikey Morales: Say, here's what matters. Here's why it matters. And also say, here is what we should really be watching next. So I'm not going to claim that I already have every answer. Part of the purpose of the show is to really ask the better question, test our ideas again to what happens on the field, and also so be willing to change our conclusion when evidence really changes.
Mikey Morales: But learning to transparently does not mean analyzing without confidence. So I'm going to really bring a clear process and explain the evidence behind my opinion. All right. You can either fade me or also see what I'm saying and really kind of come alongside me. but We're going to distinguish between what we know, what we suspect, and what we still need to be, what still needs to be proven.
Mikey Morales: So when the betting the betting enters the conversation, it will it will support the soccer analysts, not replace it. We'll examine how to and understand team situations, kind of the tactical part of the game, the likely script game scripts that can also help us decide whether the market is offering a genuine value or if it's not, it's overpricing, um hopefully underpricing. um So most importantly, we're going to hold those decisions accountable too. So on how' this is how it's going to work.
Mikey Morales: On Thursdays, we'll prepare for the weekend ahead of us. On Mondays, we'll return to our original kind of reasoning and on but have an honest talk about what we understood, what we missed, what the results can kind of teach us right as a learning tur curve. But this show is about really about becoming more informed fans, more disciplined thinkers, and more thoughtful observers of the game.
Mikey Morales: I don't expect us to begin the season knowing everything. I expect us to understand more with every match day, being that malleable person that's able to grow from it. So now I think we're actually, i think we're able to start and we'll start in no better place than LaLiga.
Mikey Morales: And so actually, before I start with that, i completely forgot. I was going to give a little presentation of what I'm actually talking about when I say the the edge framework. This is something I'm going to be talking and using when it comes to finding those edge edges in different games and different match weeks. Right. We're going to be highlighting so on Thursdays different games based on that pre match angle, pre match edge that we're finding. I thought maybe no better way to to find that and to kind of show you guys an example of that in our first ever show with a match in PSG versus Aston Villa coming up this Wednesday.
Mikey Morales: So I'm recording as of now on August 11th, going into a Wednesday. It's we call what's called the UEFA Super Cup, and it's between Paris Saint-Germain and Aston Villa.
Mikey Morales: This is the Super Cup is determined. Whoever starts is determined by the winner of the Champions League, which is the culmination of a of a an in-season tournament that's happening between the champions of each of these leagues and other leagues um and the top four finishers for some leagues, top five finishers. They enter this league and they play in an in-season tournament that ends in May. And we have our first our team in Paris Saint-Germain or PSG that are playing against Aston Villa. Now, PSG are also the two-time reigning UEFA Champions League ah champions and Aston Villa are the Europa League champions, who are which is one in-season tournament below the Champions League in the Europa League. It's kind of the teams that would finish 5th or 6th 7th in the league.
Mikey Morales: So on the surface, this looks pretty straightforward, and we're going to use the EDGE framework to show it a little of an example. PSG are back-to-back champions of Europe. right? And we have Aston Villa also when they won the European league. So the big name is really Paris, right? They have the deeper squad. They enter this match as a clear favorite. So my lock at look at this game and, and simply say, okay, PSG are the better team. So they're the lock.
Mikey Morales: So that's exactly where the edge framework is supposed to slow us down, right? Because the question isn't just who is more likely to win. Now the question is, is what's the market already making me pay for that that probability. So we start with first the E environment.
Mikey Morales: This isn't a normal league game where it's played in one place of like one match, a home game for one of the teams. Since it's the final of the UEFA Super Cup, it's going to be played in a neutral territory, neutral venue. So this is kind of limiting some aspect to environment, not not fully. It's played in Salzburg, which is more importantly, it's it's in August. Neither team has really played competitively and they haven't played any in-season match yet. So match that matters for PSG in particular, and I'll explain why.
Mikey Morales: Number of stars are had to extend the summer because of the World Cup. And Paris entered preseason without really competing there with their first team. They played Majorca, which is one of the... kind of minor teams that actually just got relegated ahead of La Liga and they drew against Manchester United 1-1. They beat Mallorca, by the way, 3-0. And so some of those results came with heavy rotations and youthful teams. So PSG are still bringing players like...
Mikey Morales: uh dembele who played you might have seen play with kilian and bapé in france um this world cup though with the vetina and joao neves who played for portugal and other but and other also players kind of match ready for this game because they didn't play in in the preseason at all and that's that's for a valid reason and playing um not really having the summer off. So PSG have the talent advantage, of course. so But they might not have the aug get you know the the total advantage that we would expect to see in an October or in November. right This is the August
Mikey Morales: version right it's not as good so that's helpful to know the environment so that leads us to dynamic what is actually changing inside these teams dynamics of aston villa might have a bigger bigger question mark here that's not exact this isn't exactly the team that won the europa league or finished fourth in the premier league now to to be able to play in the champions league um it's a very different team. They have Morgan Rogers who signed to Chelsea on a multi a hundred million, um,
Mikey Morales: signing for Chelsea and Yuri Tillemans. They're the rock of their midfield moving to Manchester United. so these are two big players that have already gone.
Mikey Morales: And one of the strongest storylines surrounding the game is also Luca Dina, who just signed for four PSG three days ago before facing his former club in this matches. I'm curious to see if Dina will even play this match.
Mikey Morales: um Villa are also so dealing with some midfield injuries as well. And ah now Amadou Onana, who tours ACL during that game against the United States.
Mikey Morales: Actually, I actually could, think I'm thinking it might've been the game before playing for the United States. Well, also a player that you might've seen playing for Switzerland and John Manzambi, who did sign for, um,
Mikey Morales: for us in Villa, he's still coming with the knee problem that actually took him out against the game against Argentina. But they have also added some other players who are in the question mark range of Alejandro Garnacho, who's a wild card. Let's think of the first season of Ted Lasso and think of Jamie Tartt. That's kind of where Alejandro Garnacho is, but he hasn't reached season two where he becomes a nice guy.
Mikey Morales: But Unai Emery, our coach here for Estonville, he is really good at integrating new pieces into the teams into this team. So that makes this matchup interesting because both teams have uncertain uncertainty and on both sides, just different kinds. PSG's uncertainty is kind of is uncertainty and readiness. Vail's uncertainty is in continuing the process from which they started last season.
Mikey Morales: Now we get to my favorite part, and it's the favorite part my favorite part of the framework because it's called the game script. So how does this match look when we imagine what is happening?
Mikey Morales: most Most likely, the version is PSG controlling possession and vi Virginia and Johannavus if they're ready to start here. We want also to see probably one of those predictabilities is Paris dictating the ball that we talked about, but also Kiveretzkelia gives them a one-on-one creation also on the left wing. and He also brings players like a Dewey Dembele into the equation, kind of giving a kind of ah broader range range attacking. which it will be interesting to see as as developments as developments change and in who PSG might be getting. There's a lot of question marks of who they might be signing this offseason, and one is one of the goal scorers for the ah winning game of the World Cup. But I'm getting a little bit ahead of myself.
Mikey Morales: But that's where Unai Emery becomes important. Villa can defend in more compact shapes, can see territory and try to create transition opportunities for Aliwak and whoever really plays around him.
Mikey Morales: And we've already seen that this matchup can become really chaotic when these teams kind of also met about a year ago in the Champions League quarterfinals. PSG 3-1 in Paris.
Mikey Morales: And then in the second leg with Villa at home, the way Villa won three to two. And so both matches featured tons of goals on each side. So my central game script looks something like this. PSG have more of the ball.
Mikey Morales: Villa have dangerous moments in transition. And eventually the superior attacking quality of Paris really creates those those differences there. My projected score is PSG two and Aston Villa one.
Mikey Morales: But now comes the final part of this that really kind of hones it in as the the anchor of of this edge framework. And that's the expectations. Because one, now we can stop really handicapping the teams and started handicapping the sportsbooks.
Mikey Morales: PSG currently are being priced roughly in the one under the minus 130 to minus 145 neighborhood to win in regulation depending on the book also while like also seeing on the over two and a half is it's kind of sitting at a minus 110 right now and that kind of changes my conclusion a little bit i think psg are more likely to win this match but i don't see psg as that dramatically underpriced So my estimated probability puts Paris as kind of a 55% to win and in regulation, which translates to a fair odds of roughly minus 120 to minus 125. So if a sportsbook wants minus 140, that's a hard pass.
Mikey Morales: The team can pass the right predictions while the bet is still wrong. Instead, the more interesting angle right here is is the over two and a half goals. Villa's preseason matches have all kind of finished in the three goal range. um And five of the six also saw both teams scoring. So Villa have enough tack attacking quality to really threaten PSG, while the defenses and midfielders kind of change, the gives them a question about their ability to keep Paris out ah for 90 minutes.
Mikey Morales: So i would really price the 2.5 over closer to about 55% probability, or roughly a minus 120 fair odds.
Mikey Morales: So my betting boundaries would be over 2.5 at about or better. At the number I would consider about kind of just a half unit. if The market moves to minus 20 or a minus 25. The advantage really disappears. So I pass. And that's really the point of the Edge framework. Environment told us PSG may not be operating a full sharpness. Dynamic told us Villa are rebuilding important parts of last season's team. And great game script to gave us a likely two to one PSG type of match.
Mikey Morales: And expectations really is, the again, the anchor. They stopped us from blindly betting PSG just because we think they're going to win. So the final edge verdict for PSG against Aston Villa is rejected score of PSG 2, Aston Villa 1. But the best angle here. isn't the PSG money line.
Mikey Morales: It's the over 2.5 goals at a minus 110 or better. And really use apps like Pickit to really identify where that that boundary is and really hold that boundary. Right now, the edge score is 7.1 out of 10. So that puts a small edge. And PSG money line, I really don't think it's going to happen. I just don't understand. I really don't think it's necessary. I don't because I don't like the price. That's what we're really looking for is the edge framework. We're not trying to predict soccer matches perfectly. We're trying to figure out when our view of the match is different enough from the sports books view that it's actually worth betting.
Mikey Morales: So we just put our first match, first edge framework into practice. Now we're going to get into the bare meat of our of our first inaugural episode. And we're going to look and we're going to start off with La Liga. One, because it's the league that we're we're um that's coming up in this match season first. We're going to go through this framework of what we're going to answer, kind of giving you a quick like eight minute so like paragraph of like what it is that this this is actually what we're going to be seeing. What are the storylines that we're kind of coming into from preseason and going into this season? And we're going to do that with the league. We're going to do that with the Premier League, Serie A and the Bundesliga. So again, starting with La Liga, the first thing we're going to try to answer is what is the league in one sentence? And if I can best explain it, Barcelona really enters as the most coherent team.
Mikey Morales: Real Madrid are the most talented, but least tactically proven right now in They're still a contender. And Atletico is the club that's positioned to really exploit any instability instability above the two teams.
Mikey Morales: So what's the defending champion central question? We just lost Barcelona, just lost a number nine and one of the greatest strikers of all time and and Robert Lewandowski. And now for on Torres, their striker, again, the World Cup goals, the game winning goal scorer for Spain is probably going to PSG.
Mikey Morales: So how will Barca really replace the their number nine position? How will Barca replace Frankie de Jong? There's moves kind of already happening there in in the game World Cup final MVP in Rodri from Manchester City, potentially moving to Barcelona. i wouldn't 100% commit to it now, and might that might just come back ending up um coming square in my face if that they get signed. We have Fabrazio kind of this just in movement maybe after this podcast, but it still hasn't been answered. And are we going to, is Barcelona going to fill that center back position to help Cabarcy? Cabarcy is one of the pivotal pieces of the World Cup Spain defense that really took Spain into that kind of level of
Mikey Morales: I think it was only four shots on target for um their goalkeeper in the whole World Cup um month and tournament. and So these are big questions to really ask about Barcelona's defending championship, um their chances of defending their championship.
Mikey Morales: So who are the most credible title title challengers? So we'll start with one, the most obvious in Real Madrid. They have the highest highest ceiling because really they have the best individual talent.
Mikey Morales: They have a Vinicius Jr., a Jude Bellingham, a Kylian Mbappe, right? And that's only just not even to say the team that now building off of that too in the Ivory Coast player in Diamandé. and a Rodrigo who's coming still back from injury, but they also have Mourinho.
Mikey Morales: He must, he has a clear role clarity of what he wants for his team. Defense committed. He also is, gives a lot of order to the dressing room, though. That's not how we left very much at the first time when he left in 2012. So that's our first title of contender. Atletico Madrid is always the like the the the almost the middle child that always gets forgotten. But he's he's also there to knows when there's that gap to be able to get what he wants. So there's the more tactically tactically stable challenger.
Mikey Morales: Particularly that if Julian Alvarez remains. and there's rumors And there's been rumors the whole offseason of him moving to Barcelona. right That's one of the questions we ask. Is he going to fill that spot that void for Barcelona's number nine position? But right now they have Julian Alvarez and he remains their attacking core. And they're really dependent on him.
Mikey Morales: And they really depended on on him making those isolated moments where he makes Atletico Madrid one of those teams that are to forced to be reckoned with. And then a third credible title contender, we're going to be talking about this a little bit more, but I would advocate for a Villarreal, not because of how they've grown the team, right? And they're also playing in the Champions League, which is more demanding um responsibility, extends your team a little bit more. So it makes this a little challenging, but I do believe in Villarreal's new head coach and and Nico Perez. He just really showed in his time in Raya Valicano that he can really show up.
Mikey Morales: um So this title race should not automatically be described as Barcelona versus Madrid. Although a lot of times that is what ends up happening. Atletico has a really plausible path if Madrid require some kind of some months to absorb Mourinho's changes.
Mikey Morales: Another question we're answering is the most consequential managerial or tactical changes in a course that has to be first again and again goes to Real real Madrid. Jose Mourinho's return to Real Madrid. right The way we kind of seen have seen the era of Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid, it it seems like a Hail Mary, but I feel like as any maybe Madridista would think of it as a Hail Mary that has proven to actually be a catch. and So it makes sense that we're going to this.
Mikey Morales: What does Mourinho bring as tangible change to this team? Or what should this Mourinho change bring to this team? One is the most clear is defining defensive block. That thing was gone at the end of the season, at the middle, the neck at the start of the season. Very attacking dominated. But this may be with Mourinho gives a greater emphasis on one on transition attacks. So this is actually going to in a way can help Madrid is by having a stronger defensive core. And that really allows their their start to really exploit.
Mikey Morales: So hopefully for Mourinho is really increasing the use of game stamp state management rather than continuous territorial domination. And what I mean by that is not just all out like dominating the the possession, dominating the the forward part of attacking, but really getting the overall advantage.
Mikey Morales: all fronts, the front, the middle and the back, creating a stronger focus on set pieces and also really looking at opponent specific plans. I saw a very great quote from Marcus Rashford, who was who was coached under Jose Mourinho. in manchester united and he talked about how mourinho would would anytime they won a game they would he would wouldn't say anything bad about the team he wouldn't make any critical decisions or critical changes when they won he would just celebrate this man is somebody who really focuses on winning and he really focuses on specific winning against the team he's going up against
Mikey Morales: So Mourinho's central problem right now is not finding enough talent. It's deciding who just who really sacrifices freedom when Madrid lose the ball. There's early use of Trent Alexander-Arnold as a conventional right back, but set-pieces specialists and kind of building up midfielders kind of suggests Mourinho's already experimenting with that role-specific solution.
Mikey Morales: Madrid already officially appointed Mourinho through the 2029 season, but they are very fast on changing that decision. You saw that in last year with Real Madrid firing their head coach in Xabi Alonso, and who's now in ah manager for Chelsea. We'll see how that goes.
Mikey Morales: The team is positioned te that its position to improve the most is, I would say, athleical Athletic Club or Athletico de Bilbao. They have a very cool and unique team that this team only brings teams from the youth academy or from the Basque region. So they're very selective in who they choose, but I'm glad they're not selective in who they choose as their coach. They have an Edin Terzic coach. who's going to give them more opportunities to be maybe more, have a more aggressive and pressing in the transition kind of team. So this early preseason kind of showed that higher pressure, faster talk attacks following regains and strong strong production from even from the start, from the starting ah striker.
Mikey Morales: So the kind of upsides kind of in this is Nico and Inaki provide that transition speed. Um, Ohan Sangset supplies that goal and creation from the midfield. And Grazetta feels like he's been in the league for eternity, but he also offers that functional reference point. So Samnames is one of the greatest stadiums.
Mikey Morales: then it really brings a big home advantage. And that's something to be mindful of. And Terzic is a player, a coach who's shown in the Bundesliga, one of the high scoring, the highest scoring leagues out of these four, that he really loves that pressing aspect to it. And I think that can bring a catalyst for this, this La Liga, this La Liga team.
Mikey Morales: What's the word I'm thinking of is really this La Liga leak that really plays maybe possession minded, right? it's It's a risk, but we're also maybe weakening the defensive control established under Ines of Alverde, who's the former head coach.
Mikey Morales: Okay. Teams carrying hidden downside. I talked about Rayo Valicana losing in Igo Perez. But let's really focus on Villarreal. Inigo Perez is replacing Marcelino. This is how much that Villarreal could be a wild card. I put them as maybe the third part or the third team to contend against the championship. But they also maybe are carrying some hidden downsides and getting a new head coach that is getting his bearings on what it looks like to be a a head coach in the Champions League.
Mikey Morales: and have that additional workload, possible squad turnovers before the window closes that I wouldn't put my my money on of like that not happening right in La Liga. There's a lot of teams that are having to to get rid of ah of players to get their the whole squad signed up and and be eligible to play this season.
Mikey Morales: So they're vulnerable they're vulnerable when matches become open and transition heavy. Historically, right? This is a wildcard team that's coming maybe with a new framework of ri from Rayo Vallecano's framework that, ah for all intents purposes, it really worked for Inigo. Took Rayo Vallecano to one of the the conference league finals they who they originally they ended up losing in that final to Crystal Palace.
Mikey Morales: But if i if I wouldn't put Villarreal here of as kind of the the team carry that carries some hidden downside, Batiste, Real Batiste would be my secondary answer because you're European commitments, they really change you know the squad. like The squad gets really extended here. And so that's another team I would be looking at. And the team the promoted team situation here is we have three. Three teams come up. Three teams get.
Mikey Morales: relegated And one of the three teams is, and I think the one that has the best, probably most equipped survival candidacy is Racing Santander. Racing earned automatic promotion and appears to kind of possess the clearest combination of continuity. Attacking identity and institutional stability also really gives this team the the validity of being the most equipped survival candidate.
Mikey Morales: Deportivo La Coruña, which is another team, has also been promoted. They have a long-term ceiling, while Malaga also have an enormous support from home field potential. But they also kind of remain restricted by the financial and administrative conditions also from the team really coming from the second division and making a really awesome comeback in La Liga in the first premier league.
Mikey Morales: um league So my preliminary order would be Racing, Santander, Deportivo La Coruña, and Malaga as the, in that order of who's most likely to stay in in the league after the season is done.
Mikey Morales: All three teams have first time, our first time La Liga managers that are involved in these three teams. So the recruitment during the final week of the window could really make or break this, this assessment.
Mikey Morales: And one of the last things we're going to look at is the market assumptions worth challenging. Real Madrid's talent does not automatically make the tactic them tactically reliable or necessarily the correct preseason favorite.
Mikey Morales: The market market is likely to price Mourinho and Bob Bay, Vinicius, Bellingham, like the I said, equaling immediate improvement. But Madrid's actual questions concerned questions, concerns are are valid.
Mikey Morales: Who leads the press? That's been the question even of last year. Can Mbappe and Vinicius really coexist with a weakening defensive coverage? But that's hopefully trying to improve there in Marine bringing in and bring in. I will say where does belling can play? That question mark is still there. As you notice, a lot of these question marks are still coming from last year where there was they weren't really resolved. They're kind of put at bay, kind of hoping that that are a new head coach would kind of be there. They're saving grace in this.
Mikey Morales: Another question is how aggressive can Alexander-Arnold move inside? Which midfielders control transitions? As you notice, they were trying to sign Rodri to fill in kind of these these question marks, but the the signing really got out of nowhere hijacked from Barcelona. It's still on to be determined. So we don't know. Madrid could improve significantly and still begin the season less coherent than Barcelona. That can be a possibility. The distinction matters in future markets and early... match pricing um which ironically that marcelona and ramicida won't be playing in the first match week um The second assumption worth opposing is that all three promoted clubs should be treated as the equivalent, like relegated candidates.
Mikey Morales: Their home environment for all three or and also tactical continuity and financial limitations are meaningful. And they're also make it a little bit of of a kryptonite there.
Mikey Morales: So the opening week storylines really that we're trying were again highlighting is Barca versus Athletic is the probably the best first edge case that we might study when Barcelona does come to play.
Mikey Morales: But we kind of conquered there of kind of those questions marks of of what is it that Lali guys is hopefully going to be looking like in this season.
Mikey Morales: And so we just started right there with one team or one league right there. We have three more to go. We'll get this done, guys. I believe in us. first of all, my favorite league here is the Premier League, not because it has my favorite team, but because it has my favorite teams. All right.
Mikey Morales: Not ah having no allegiance to one. I would say I'd say probably my allegiance would be where the edge is. or are or a Spurs, but it's just because I love to feel pain, I guess, in being a Spurs fan and seeing them get almost relegated every season for the last couple seasons at this point. But one of the biggest...
Mikey Morales: ways to describe the Premier League in one sentence is that really the champions remain the safest choice, right? Arsenal, their managers, it's the same. They're coming with aggressive recruitment and they made...
Mikey Morales: They made some big tactical, not differences, but really kind of building more muscle to their what they already were working at in a Bruno Gimara signing and a couple more signings here. So they have a lot of upsides with a lot of uncertainty in the league.
Mikey Morales: So the the defending champion central question right here is really can our Arsenal shift from the hunters, the ones who couldn't do it, they're always running second place to the hunted.
Mikey Morales: Their 85 point title was built really on the league's strongest overall combination of control, defensive reliability, also wasting time. And consistency.
Mikey Morales: Pierrot and Capier really strengthened in a lot of ways that defensive core brought in that piece that was really going to be that really helped build that defensive core into strong a stronger unit, brought in that experience from Bayer Leverkusen.
Mikey Morales: While we've had some other additions along the way, talked about ah now officially Bruno Gimeraj building that strength in the middle midfield with a Declan Rice. We also have some really some names that we wouldn't know if we didn't watch the Champions League. But I saw in a Christos Tzolis, I think is how you pronounce his name. He has another kind of ah direct attacking option for Arsenal. But the retaining retaining the title brings and psychologically some challenges.
Mikey Morales: And their schedule quickly becomes demanding after up opening against Coventry, which is one of the promoted teams. But then they play against Aston Villa away. And then again against Xabi Alonso at home. So they are there are a lot of back-to-back games that are going to be really a good test to see how this Arsenal team adds up.
Mikey Morales: The most important question is, is less whether Arsenal are good enough and more whether they can really maintain their intensity while every contender really treats them as the standard? That's a hard, hard position to be at.
Mikey Morales: And so we had some potential signings in Vinny Jr., but that looks like it's dying out, and it looked like it was artificially made for for both sides to really give credibility for the title contenders but then or for the retaining champs, and then also help Vinicius Jr. get that a little higher contract extension for a Madrid. never knew Never thought he was leaving.
Mikey Morales: So the most credible title title title challengers Although Pep Guardiola is gone, lot of the top six teams in the Premier League have new coaches. So in a weird way, that's not really a weakness.
Mikey Morales: But one of the credible title challengers right now is Manchester City. They're, I think, in my opinion, the closest challengers. City finished seven points behind Arsenal last season.
Mikey Morales: And they've since added an Elliot Anderson that really showed up for England this World Cup. can they He's kind of giving their midfields more power, more athleticism, more ball-winning ability. Enzo Mareska, he's appointed to their new head coach um after Pep Guardiola. And he's coming in with a lot of empty, vacant chairs. He's coming in with no Bernardo Silva, no John Stones, no Nathan Ake. No Manuel Conte, who's already gone and had was on loan during that time. But these are significant transition risks in this this transition of the Maresca era.
Mikey Morales: Liverpool probably have the next highest ceiling because Florian Wurtz, Alexander Isak, they give Areola elite central attacking talent.
Mikey Morales: But the losses of Mohamed Salah, who's, I will say, already passed his prime. Ibrahim Kanate, who's big a big part of their defensive core. And Andy Robertson, who's their heart and soul the defensive core. That kind of makes them a little harder to trust immediately. Liverpool finished fifth last season with 25 points behind Arsenal. So they're attempting both a tactical reset, but also a major personal transition.
Mikey Morales: Manchester United are credible contenders, but their third place, but their place may be a more reliable expectation than first. Michael Carrick, he produced an extraordinary, really big turnaround from 12 wins in 17 league matches is matches and a league best 39 points after taking over.
Mikey Morales: But extrapolating that pace across a Champions League season would be really aggressive. And I don't i don't really don't see it happening. um And I really Manchester United is one of those historic teams where it's like almost like a Ferrari where you want to see it kind of continue in success.
Mikey Morales: But it's really a hit or miss. They're definitely the wild card coming into this Premier League season. The current market order supports that hierarchy. Arsenal has a six to four chance of winning the of the winning the Premier League. City have 11-4. Liverpool have 11-2.
Mikey Morales: United have 7-1 chances. And Chelsea have eight to one chances per Sky Bet title prices. So the most consequential managerial or tactical changes right now, is there's and there's a ton, but one of them is Andoni Areola.
Mikey Morales: So he's replacing Arna Slott, crazy enough just to think that a year removed from winning the Premier League in one bad season gets Arna Slott sacked.
Mikey Morales: So Errol has a tight ship to kind of really prove to the Liverpool fans. But he also is bringing a different type of Liverpool. Maybe a more faster, more vertical, more aggressive without the ball.
Mikey Morales: And so maybe that's what we can expect in this season. So he also has people who can really operate behind roster. really maybe more pressure oriented, more forward passing oriented after turnovers in Florian Vert and Alexander Isak. This is alex Alexander Isak, whose season was almost completely gone last season, who still has a lot to prove.
Mikey Morales: So the fullbacks and midfielders attacking space also are more aggressive under Eroa. Less emphasis on prolonged possession for its own sake. So this is a kind of very fast pace. They know what they want to attack and score almost counterattack aspect to it. So that approach could really awaken the team that can become too predictable in the last couple of seasons. But also, I will say a lot of the Liverpool team had a lot of older players that were coming from the time past, maybe a little stayed a little too long.
Mikey Morales: Most importantly, Areola must replace Salah's production collectivity, and Victor Munoz and Jeremy Jackett has been their only addition so far. I will say Salah's production collection was pretty dwindling pretty significantly at the latter part of the season, but neither part of those additions really directly replaces the league's most dependable right-sided score for the last 10 years. And so that's really, we're going to see how that that progresses.
Mikey Morales: Teams positioned to improve, I'd say, is a team in Tottenham. um I would say this is my team. If I supported one team, like I said, would be Tottenham. And I think they are positioned to improve. Spurs finished, it's crazy to say, 17th in the league, but earned 11 points during DeZerby's last season rescue. And it really was that, a ah rescue mission. They've reshaped it's the spine of the team with the signings of Sandra to now Tonali from a Newcastle, Mateus Fernandez from a now-relegated West Ham, John Paul Vanhecki from Brighton, and Marcos Sanasi from Bournemouth, where Arreola was the head coach of last season. And they did add part of that Liverpool leadership in Andy Robertson to leave that leadership and also progressive passing. So De Zerbe has now a midfield that's capable of receiving receiving under pressure and defenders also with the ability to advance the ball. So there's is essential features of this position to build up that's going to be really helpful for the team. The caution is that Dezirby's style really requires precise spacing and brave buildup. And as we've seen from Tottenham, early mistakes are very likely. Tottenham have spent heavily and enough that expectations could rise faster than the team's tactical fluency. So it this is kind of like we kind of...
Mikey Morales: Maybe the the head might be big, but the body might be small. So this might have some improvement positioning, but also there are could be some downsides.
Mikey Morales: So a team carrying some hidden downsides and in this league is a team in Liverpool. The market sees a prestigious new manager and an attacking core containing Florian Verts and Alexander Isak.
Mikey Morales: And so the less comfortable version of the story is that Liverpool finished fifth with 60 points last season. Salah's lost his goal ability and creativity. And also they lost two experienced defensive leaders in Canate and Robertson. They still have Van Dijk.
Mikey Morales: but they are really kind of like weaning off and of that old guard um of the liberal team. They need to fill in new leaders. They're installing a physical demanding pressing system, which is going to be hard on the team, especially on the players that are just coming from a grueling World Cup season or World Cup summer.
Mikey Morales: So they enter the season with several injuries and depth concerns as well, as Liverpool can. The Liverpools can challenge for the title, but their range of possibility outcomes is wider than their reputation suggests. A thrilling attack and unstable defense can really coexist, but I think it's going to take time.
Mikey Morales: Manchester City deserve an honorable mention here because Anderson is an outstanding addition, but losing Bernardo Silva, Stones, and Ake in the same summit really removes a considerable amount of intelligence, but also defensive versatility. That hasn't been a part of the Pep, the Guardiola, Manchester, Zeke Geist of the time.
Mikey Morales: with their tall man upstairs and in Erling Holland also just destroying. So here's ah here's the three promoted team situations. You have Ipswich, which appears to be the best equipped to survive. Coventry have the strongest promotion momentum and Hull really look the most vulnerable.
Mikey Morales: They really you should if you have time, you should look on YouTube and look how they got promoted. it was an insane game. A very, very fun one. I'm very sad because I i really did want Middlesbrough to get promoted. But in a way, I'm excited for Middles. This is an EFL championship podcast, but I am really excited as an American to watch two Americans play in a team that they hopefully get promoted. I think they have the best chances of doing it.
Mikey Morales: So what are the positive cases and maybe some of the concerns quickly and briefly for these teams? One, Ipswich have added some some teams' density in it, adding Esabdi up, who represents a really he ah significant top flight-oriented recruitment right there in in playing for Fulham for most of his last couple seasons. They added Gary O'Neal, who is replacing the manager who got them promoted in Akiri and McKenna. And Ipswich conceded 82 goals during their previous Premier League season, so maybe they needed a change.
Mikey Morales: Coventry are coming in with who some of people would know. And I think actually, I refer to FIFA 10, Frank Lampard, who was, I think, on the cover of a FIFA 10 during that time. But he's the right now, the the championship winner, who's now adding a couple of players into like in their goalkeeper position and their midfielder position. And they're really they have a team right here in I will say as an American Hashi right the striker but they have a very high core goal oriented team their opening run is rated among the league's hardest beginning away at Arsenal you should look at their schedule it's very rough so if they're if they get make it out of the first week's match day five um with at least a win and a tie under their belt that's the Very good sign of staying in this Premier League flight. So the last, again, that's maybe the most vulnerable is Hull City. They have side that's organized by Sergei Dzekerovich, and they're battle-tested. These are guys who won't quit and won't give up.
Mikey Morales: But their main concern really is that Hull came up through their through the playoffs after finishing sixth place. and have really lost several important loanees from the promotion squad.
Mikey Morales: So Coventry's permanent acquisition of Rushworth is a particularly important aspect. He played every championship match, recorded 17 clean sheets, and won the Golden Glove for the EFL champion efl championship. So that's a very significant part of Coventry's bid for promotion, or a bid for it staying in the Premier League.
Mikey Morales: So what are some market assumptions worth challenging? Manchester United's important improvement automatically makes them title contenders. Carrick's impact was real, not imaginary. He really restored the the stable back four, brought somebody who was lost in the back rooms of Manchester United's team team squad in Nikobe Mayanu and brought him back into the team. He reduced defensive exposure and simplified the rules around Bruno Fernandes, Mateus Cunha, and Brandon Bomo, basically everybody that they signed that last offseason, which is a testament to Michael Carrick.
Mikey Morales: United also this season have added year at Tillemans, Andre Santos to replace some of those some of the control and experience lost in Casemiro, who's now moved on to the MLS with Rodrigo DePaul and Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi and into Miami.
Mikey Morales: But the three factors that invite caution for Manchester United is United's 12 wins in Carrick's 17 matches may represent a really unsustainable conversation conversion rate. Champions League football, again, removes the preparation advantage that and that they enjoyed last season and not having to play in European battle. And they can just take so they had just had the ability to just stay exclusively in the Premier League. kind of frontier.
Mikey Morales: Their attack still need another dependable source of goals following hoys hoyman Rasmus Hoyland's departure. He didn't play last season, and he wasn't a big part of of the development for Carrick, but I think still not filling in that number nine position Having, i will say, but Benjamin Sheshko has been a very helpful part of that and really covering that position. But I will say we'll see to be determined how Benjamin Sheshko develops in the lake.
Mikey Morales: So. while as we're thinking about what's kind of going on in this league. So there's one that's going to be really exciting, but also one that's going to have a high aspect of variance.
Mikey Morales: And I think where we'll go next is ah talk about league that has high variance. We'll talk about the Serie A. So the Serie is maybe in the best the best way to define it is really Serie begins with a clear and deserved favorite in the defending champions, into InterNationale. The major coaching changes at Milan, Napoli, Atalanta, and even Juventus, their aggressive investments also create a more interesting race than enters even money price kind of suggests right now.
Mikey Morales: What's the defending champion central question? Only league of the big four right now that have had a different champion for the last seven years consecutively can enter really refreshed and aging core without disturbing the structure that produced 87 points and 11 point championship margin. That's the question.
Mikey Morales: Christian Chivu's first full season developed delivered the title, which is really awesome um thing to to say about your first year. right Only few have have done that as in their first year.
Mikey Morales: Although it has been a theme in this the these four leagues in Hansi Flick and Arsene Slaught. So he did deliver and he kind of makes ah them the rightful favorites. They added a John Stones from Manchester City who arrived in a free transfer, also keeping Manuel Kanji and Stankovic to strengthen their defense once again. Stones availability and his physical decline of older players remain the biggest concern for this team.
Mikey Morales: Who are the most the credible title challengers? We'll start with Napoli. They have a new coach in Massimiliano Allegri, who's replacing the legendary Antonio Conte. So how much attacking ambition can Napoli really retain under him? That's the question.
Mikey Morales: The strongest alternative alternative right now is Napoli. They have a Rasmus Hoyland again, who has scored 16 goals in their last season campaign.
Mikey Morales: Juventus, again, have had a very, very busy offseason and a lot of signings. They showed that they want to have a very kind of fast-challenging upside challenge for this the Serie A championship. Spalletti now has a full...
Mikey Morales: preseason He's not coming into as last season, kind of filling in the gap. They've signed a Colomani, who I will say not have fully proven. a Luis Openda, Karim Alajbegovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina, who really showed very well his talents in the World Cup. They give all these signings kind of give him more considerable speed in their attacking variety.
Mikey Morales: Juventus have, they possess a title quality attack, but Spalletti still, he establishes a more stable midfield and defensive structure. So it'll be interesting to see how he uses that.
Mikey Morales: Milan, the most tactical volatile challengers, I will say. have their new rival and Robert Ruben Amarim, whose campaign for Manchester United ended in a dumpster fire, I will say. i had a lot of hopes for him in that process, but didn't look good. It didn't look like a right fit from the bat from the jump.
Mikey Morales: Just personality-wise, even how he spoke to his team, how he spoke to the organization and even the press, just didn' never looked like a fit. But now he has a signing in Giancarlo Ramos, who is the reported a $74 million move from a PSG. So he can create major improvements. Bamarum's system also requires suitable wingbacks.
Mikey Morales: It's a very interesting form in like... um like formation that he likes to do that's very specific. It didn't work again for Manchester United, but hey, maybe it works for Milan.
Mikey Morales: Roma, ah always the the little kid in the, you know, it's the almost the younger brother that like gets one toy that you really want, but he doesn't really make up a good, good like toy collection, right? This is kind of like how you explain Roma in the Serie A. Gasperini provides... Kind of some ability to make a case for being third, but the squad is not deep yet.
Mikey Morales: They signed one of the right backs for the Argentina club or Argentina national team in now well Molina. Santiago ah Castro is also an excellent signing, one of the strikers from the Serie A in Bologna, I want to say.
Mikey Morales: Gasparinas also indicated that more reinforcements are are ah required, and hopefully it will happen. A sleeper, sleeper, credible title challenger is also Como, who finished fourth with 71 points, and they can still be around a plus 3,300. So if their survives a window, And their new signing, Trevor Chaloba, he's reported he's going to move to the team. He's bringing a defensive core that really worked for at least the Chelsea core for a while.
Mikey Morales: So there's a a lot of managerial changes and tactical changes in a Robyn Abram replacing Allegri at Milan. And so we're going to see how this ends up happening and how this ends up giving improvement to Milan. But I really think the team position to improve is Milan. They finish fifth with 70 points, only six behind second second place in Milan.
Mikey Morales: um Napoli. So Amarim offers a potential significant tactical upgrade. Ramos really surprised a true penalty area striker. And Gila improves the defense.
Mikey Morales: mila Milan do not need a dramatic point improvement ten to enter the race. They need a greater consistency consistency against teams that concede possession. I'd say a second team position to improve are Antalanta.
Mikey Morales: They're the secondary candidate, I'd say. A ninth-place finish provides Sarri with a relatively low starting point, so it's not a lot of high expectation. But moving from Antalanta's traditional man-oriented football towards Sarri's positional system could require time, so it might take some time in those first match days.
Mikey Morales: the Team carrying the hidden downside, I will say, is, again, Napoli. Their plus 450 or plus 550 range prices them as enters principal challengers, but really there's a lot of risks here. So one, if not, just to to name a few, is really the dependence on Hoyland's maintaining last season's finishing, which we don't know if that will happen under Allegri's more reactive management, where Contes had a more intensive aspect to his tactical management of Napoli. Their Champions League workload will bring a challenge for the team and the team's depth, and we'll see how they react in their signings. They are losing potentially a Romelu Lukaku, I will say, well did not play out of an injury record, most of the season. The possibility that the second place over really overstates their underlying proximity to enter. They finished 11 points behind. Napoli remain contenders, but their price is are less attractive than their name recognition. And second place finish really kind of gives that the but the sports odds makers kind of that that notoriety that Napoli may be.
Mikey Morales: Maybe we should fade. Which club's reputation exceeds its present squad quality? I think we're going to skip that for now. We're going to go to promoted team situations. So the promoted teams is Venezia, Monsa. I love these Italian names. And Frosinone.
Mikey Morales: I'm going to try to name the coaches, but I'm really going to butcher them. Venezia's coach, I love to say this with the Italian accent, is Giovanni Stropa. They're best survival candidates of the of the three, i would say. Experienced coach, coherent position structure, and an opening home match against Lecce helps give them at least that Maybe an easier home victory to give them that momentum to start the season.
Mikey Morales: Monza is the strongest survival coach, but their potential for the weak the weakest relationship between tactical demand and inherent squad. So Frozinone is probably the most vulnerable.
Mikey Morales: I love but the best name. Organized and well-coached, but Frozinone have never survived any of their previous three Serie A seasons.
Mikey Morales: So the ledge the relegation market contenders currently make Frozionna a heavy favorite to go down at approximately a minus 400, followed by Monza at minus 150, and ven Venezia around a plus 150.
Mikey Morales: The separation may underrate Venezia's stability. So we'll see how that ends up happening. So yes, one can survive. Venezia is probably the most plausible. Frozionna appeared destined for an immediate flight.
Mikey Morales: While Monza is kind of that survival, they may depend it might depend how quickly Juric can impose his defensive structure in the league. So the last but not least, we'll work on market assumptions worth challenging.
Mikey Morales: This is a big one. Inter are so far ahead that the championship is effectively a one team market. have Maybe see that, but we don't know if it's necessarily true. So that's worth challenging right there. Inter should be favorite, but plus 100 roughly implies that they have a 50% probability before bookmark before bookmarker margin. That is an aggressive price in a league where Napoli retained a title ah title caliber squad Juventus have made huge upgrades in their attack Milan finished only 17 points behind despite an uneven season and and have made a major tactical investment in Ruben Abram and Roma and Como both exceeded 70 points last year and they're keeping a lot of their core teams the core aspect of their team from last year So the better argument is not necessarily to bet against Inter. It is the that Inter's probability may be closer to the 40% 45% than a 50%, leaving more theoretical value among the challengers.
Mikey Morales: So that leaves us to the last league. last and i was I was going to say last and fast, but I think I love all four of them and in their own different ways. But that brings us to the Bundesliga.
Mikey Morales: So the Bundesliga is the German league, if you didn't get the accent. So one way, I didn't do the accents for La Liga or the English League or the Premier League, but I regret that now. I might go back and edit that, AI generate it, or AI edit it.
Mikey Morales: We have the Bundesliga. So one way that we can describe this league in one sentence coming into this 2026 2027 season is Bayern remain overwhelmingly likely to win the Bundesliga.
Mikey Morales: But the battles for Champions League qualification and survival featuring several ambitious cop coaching changes and three distinctive promoted clubs should bring considerable but less probable
Mikey Morales: considerably less predictable ah changes to the outcome. And you can look on Wikipedia and see the last um or the last champions for the Bundesliga season and see how quickly it can feel like a one title contender match.
Mikey Morales: tatle contender ah And we'll see if that changes this year. So defending champion central question. Has Bayern become even more complete or will its World Cup disrupted preparation create an early opening for the chase back?
Mikey Morales: That's the same question you can ask for all four leagues. But this one probably has the most significant as Bayern have really had them monopolized this this league in a lot of ways.
Mikey Morales: Vincent Kempany's team scored a ah record 122 goals last season. This is like FC 26 in CPU probably like...
Mikey Morales: legendary mode kind of stats, but they completed the domestic double. The Bayern also added players. They added as my asmael Sabari from PSV, who also was a very prominent striker in the World Cup who played for Morocco. And ah in a lot of ways, I think if he would have started for that game that ultimately got Morocco eliminated against France, that would have been a very different game.
Mikey Morales: He signed for approximately $50 million, 19 goals and nine assists last season with the versatility to play centrally wide or so a secondary striker. And that's probably what he's going to play as as a secondary striker until if hopefully it doesn't happen, but if Harry Kane gets injured.
Mikey Morales: Now, Nathaniel Brown from Frankfurt for approximately $50 million. He's a very... He's a wild card. He's attacking left back who improves the depth behind the injury-affected Alphonso Davies. It feels like he's getting injured every single game he plays. And he didn't play the whole World Cup, which I don't knock to him. I think it's just...
Mikey Morales: He's had the injury bug now for a while now, which is really sad to see his career kind of kind of be put on pause for the last two to two and a half years. So those additional strengths are an already dominant squad. The hesitation is preparation.
Mikey Morales: Byron didn't officially reconvene until July 20th. And Harry Kane, Michael Alise, Pamecano were scheduled to return return only after the club's August tour. So Bayern's therefore may be less reliable in the August match days in September as well than over all the like the full 34 match season.
Mikey Morales: The conclusion is really trust Bayern over the season. Be more careful trusting its early season form, combinations, and defensive sharpness, but really trust Bayern.
Mikey Morales: The most credible title challengers is Rocia Dortmund. Rocia Dortmund are the only challengers that currently combine continuity and <unk>uity defensive credibility and sufficient attacking quality in niko kovic first full season by brucey dortmund finished second with 73 points and conceded a league low of 34 goals this goes to show how defensive the team was but they only lost twice in their first 20 league matches which shows that they really started off very well and ended up poorly but also just exhausted
Mikey Morales: um si Sir Hor Gerasi supplies proven scoring, but also some age on his legs. While Joan Godu and Konstantinos Kratzas raises the squad's long-term ceiling of those new teams, as it always seemed like Borussia Dortmund is getting of kind of continuing their young squad and bringing them and introducing them to the starting eleven So the second contenders is ab c RB Leipzig, which is a team that I am really looking and excited for. They lost their Jan Diamante.
Mikey Morales: They are hopefully hoping to keep Antonio Nusa. But this is also... a ah possible a team that has a lot of upside outside of Munich and Dortmund. They just got their new coach in Martin de Michelez, who replaces Ole Werner, despite the third place finish. Martin de Michelez, I think he has a lot of upside in how he coaches his team. We saw how he coached Mallorca, who got relegated, but also they had a lot of lot of really momentum going into that relationship.
Mikey Morales: the promotion or staying on in La Liga. And I think Martin Demichael can do something very, maybe akin to a vinting company who also had gotten relegated in the Premier League a season before getting hired as the Bayern Munich head coach. The VFB Stuttgart or Stuttgart deserved to be included ahead of of Frankfurt and possibly Leverkusen. They finished fourth, retained ah Sebastian Hoeneb in most of the core and have a reliable score in Dennis Undav, who recorded 19 goals last season and also scored a couple of really great goals on the bench for the German national team in this last World Cup.
Mikey Morales: So the question is whether Champions League demands will make the title level pace really un so unsustainable. And that's the part of the upside for Bayern Munich is they have not necessarily a big...
Mikey Morales: squad to be able to do it. But I think in a way they have ah an ability to be able to bench their their top players when they are so dominant in the league. By another accused in our a high variance recovery candidate rather than a primary title challenger. They finished sixth place in a beginning their their third coach in roughly a year and have lost Alejandro Grimaldi, who is one of their, if not their best player.
Mikey Morales: However, Alphonso Moreira, Kenneth Icon, and Karim Ajabogovic joined a talented young squad that really that underperformed last season. So I'm really hoping that Bayern can change it up.
Mikey Morales: Lastly, we have Eintracht Frankfurt. They do return to Europe other under I.D. Hutar, but losing nathan Nathaniel Brown to the rivals Bayern weakens the case for a genuine title challenge. The Champions League challenge is much more realistic.
Mikey Morales: So what's the most consequential? I forgot to say the early title market market makes Bayern roughly 89% implied probability favorite, while Dortmund are around 10 to 1 and Leipzig and Liverpool far behind. That accurately reflects the gap, although those implied probabilities include bookmarker margin.
Mikey Morales: So the most consequential manager or tactical changes, and there's a lot of them, but like I said, I think it's Demichaelis. Martin Demichaelis replacing Ole Werner at RB Leipzig. Leipzig dismissed Werner despite finishing third and recorded 20 league victories. That makes Demichaelis' appointment both ambitious but also risky.
Mikey Morales: and he inherits a Champions League caliber squad. But but he also must improve its attacking consistency without disrupting what already worked.
Mikey Morales: Carlos Martinez at Leverkusen may be ultimately... To create the largest stylistic transformation, his Toulouse team emphasized proactivity, attractive football, and his background in youth development really fits Leverkusen's recruitment style. He's an intriguing appointment, but middle ah but immediate title expectation would be kind of pretty much excessive.
Mikey Morales: So some other notable new head coaches, again, Demi Kellis for Leipzig, Kourles Martinez from Bayern Leverkusen, and also Aidi Huttar from Eintracht Frankfurt, and Mauro Lustronelli in Union Berlin.
Mikey Morales: So teams positioned to improve... This a little hard. I wouldn't be honest. I put Ly, Byron, Leverkusen, but I also think the Byron, Leverkusen have the, or maybe the team position to have carry the most hidden downside.
Mikey Morales: um So this one is going to be hard. But last season, they finished six to under um understated the last squad's talent. Leverkusen defeated Dortmund.
Mikey Morales: They beat Leipzig twice and Manchester City. They showed that they're it's like the ceiling remained high despite managerial instability. So in that sense, Martinez, he really has a team here.
Mikey Morales: They added Alfonso Moreira from Lyon. He also gives the team a direct left side dribble, dribbling, which is needed. acquire The quieter alternative is Mainz. who's Fischer lost only five of his 21 league matches after taking over a relegation threat team. A full preseason under Fischer makes Mainz a plausible top half and European outsider.
Mikey Morales: The team carrying the hidden downside, i will say, is Hoffenheim. they The fifth place really overperformed. team and christian uh is learned new contract creates optimism for often hoffenheim but hoffenheim have sold muzumana tori to newcastle for 50 million he produced five goals and 12 assists last season was is really central to their progression and chance uh nathan decat is an exciting signing but he's only 18 and he's a midfielder rather than a direct replacement Global League matches will also stretch against the squad that benefited from rhythm and continuity last season. So Offenheim could still be good while regressing several positions.
Mikey Morales: Promoted team situations. One of my favorite teams that are promoted this season, it kind of is on the same length of like the same lens of Malaga being promoted, seeing Shaka,
Mikey Morales: promoted again. The best equipped in team, in my opinion, to survive. Miron Muzlik built promotion around the division's best defense. Shaka conceded on 31 golds and at least ate fewer than anyone else. They retained most of the core added and added meaningful experience. They retained, thankfully, Edin Dzeko.
Mikey Morales: through this year. Robin Gosens, Junior Adamo, Kevin Miller, Satoshi Tanaka. The warning is attacking production. Nine second division clubs scored more than Shaka 50 goals and relying heavily on 40 year old ed and Jekko, the go and Kenan Karaman presents obvious downside. Survival is realistic, but stabilization depends on creating enough chances against better defenses.
Mikey Morales: Second is the smallest club in the Bundesliga, but the most intriguing system in Elversburg. Elversburg are the smallest club to ever reach the Bundesliga.
Mikey Morales: If you don't have a team in the Bundesliga, I would put a bid on Elversburg. They represent a town of approximately 13,000 people, but they they may be more competitive than the resources suggest. Vincent vo Wagner's team led the second division with 64 goals, had its second best off defense, to conceding 39, and recovered after losing multiple important players. They added prospects from Bayern.
Mikey Morales: By Byron, they added prospects from Dortmund, Leverkusen, and Stuttgart. The primary issue is whether proactive attacking approach can survive the jump in opponent quality. Alves Leverk have a legitimate survival candidate, but they're not merely a novelty.
Mikey Morales: Last but not least is Paderborn. They have the highest immediate relegation risk. Paderborn earned promotion by beating Wolfsburg in the playoffs, but its underlying profile is less secure. and won only one of its final five regular season matches. More than 10 new rivals are being in integrated into the team, so a lot of change. Many recruits came from lower divisions. Leading scorer, Philip Bibija, departed from the team. And Mika Bar, future's future, remain uncertain in early August.
Mikey Morales: Paderborn showed resilience and produced a nine match winning streak last season. But squad has the greatest combination of turnover and top flight uncertainty. So.
Mikey Morales: What, last but not least, is the market's assumption worth challenging? And I'd say in one sentence, Schalke are automatically the strongest promoted side because they're the biggest club.
Mikey Morales: Schalke, although I love them, have the strongest resources in the top fly experience, but Augsburg displayed more balanced attacking profile. Schalke's defense should travel well,
Mikey Morales: Its modest 50 goals output may not, if if survival prices heavily favor Shaka based on name recognition, Alvesburg could offer more interesting value. A second exception to challenge is that Leverkusen must immediately return to being Byron's principal challenger. Dortmund 73 points, league best defense, and coach coaching continuity, right? This is a big emphasis, continuity, as we've seen in the big four leagues primers, is there's a lot of change.
Mikey Morales: But that really makes BVP or Dortmund the much more credible second choice right now. So that's a quick, maybe not so quick, but a ah End to our show.
Mikey Morales: I'm excited to talk Thursday about some our first match day um of La Liga. And i' one, I'm excited to be able to just reflect on what this season can bring for us. Not just what it will bring, but what it could bring. And there's so many possibilities going into this league.
Mikey Morales: and going into this season. So one thing I'm going to do kind of just to to really end our show is have like a really quick cross league watch list. So now that we work through the four leagues individually, I want to stop and set step, take a step back and talk about what I'll be watching across all of them during the opening weeks.
Mikey Morales: because everything we discussed today is still preseason argument. We have evidence, questions, and expectations, but the actual matches will begin testing those ideas. The first thing to watch is the remainder of the transfer windows. That's the biggest important thing until September first The season may beginning may be beginning, but these squads are not necessarily finished.
Mikey Morales: One major rival can change a team's ceiling, while one unexpected departure can create a weakness that wasn't present when we made our preseason assessments." But I don't want to evaluate transfers purely by asking whether player is talented. The most useful question rather is what role will he fill? Does he solve an existing problem? How quickly can he adapt? And whose minutes are sp response or responsibilities will change because of his arrival? A recognizable name can generate excitement, yes, and move the betting market before we have evidence that player actually improves the team. um a rodrie
Mikey Morales: The second thing I'll be monitoring is players' availability. That includes confirmed injuries, as we found out from even this offseason this today, is that Rooney Barge bary is tore his ACL. And so he's not going to be on loan to maybe one of these under these teams that were in the race for staying in in the the top flight.
Mikey Morales: But these... Includes confirmed injuries, but it goes really goes beyond simply asking whether someone is available to start. Some players may return while with limited fitness from the World Cup or from other endeavors. Others may be available but not ready to play 90 minutes. And new signings may require time to understand the system.
Mikey Morales: So when we see a star player listed in the starting lineup, that doesn't automatically mean we are getting the best of or the most complete version of that player to start our season.
Mikey Morales: Third, we need to watch whether the tactical changes we discussed are actually actually appearing on the field. During the preseason, a new manager can describe how he wants his team to play. Clubs can talk about becoming more aggressive, more organized, or more comfortable in possession. But the opening match will give us the first meaningful evidence.
Mikey Morales: So how is the team building from the back? What when what happens when it loses position? Is it really pressing together or are individuals players being left exposed? Are the fullbacks creating with or moving inside? Is a striker receiving meaningful service or becoming isolated? We shouldn't draw a final conclusion from one match. However, if the the same strength or weakness appears repeatedly, it may be more than an opening week accident.
Mikey Morales: The fourth factor is uneven preseason preparation. This has been an unusual summer. Not every team or players have followed the same schedule. Some managers have had several weeks to work with with most of their squad. Others have dealt with late return, transfer uncertainties, injuries, or limited time with important players. That matters during the opening weeks because the better teams on paper may not be the more prepared teams of the day. This is where the betting discipline becomes important.
Mikey Morales: The edge framework becomes important. A heavily favored club may still win, but if the market is pricing that club accordingly to its full season potential instead of its current readiness, the odds may not justify that risk.
Mikey Morales: Sometimes the early edge will be backing a prepared team. Other times the edge will be simply be recognizing uncertainency uncertainty to choose and choosing to pass.
Mikey Morales: So the fifth thing to monitor is the schedule. As a domestically begins and European competition eventually enters the picture, we need to consider travel, wreck recovery time, rotation, and importance of the next match.
Mikey Morales: Two teams can appear relatively equal until we recognize that one has had a full week to prepare while the other is managing and demanding sequences of the matches. So the final factor and one that connects everything to the edge framework is price movement.
Mikey Morales: Identifying the team we expect to perform is only the beginning. You also need to compare the opening odds with the price available when we're ready to make a decision. For example, I may initially like a team at a plus ah plus 120. But if injuries or public attention or expected markets move movement, push that price down to a a minus one of five, right? The soccer and ah analysis could remain correct while the betting opportunity disappears.
Mikey Morales: That's why even potential play needs play needs an odds boundary. The point beyond which the possible rewards no longer compensate for the, and for the uncertainty. Across all four leagues, these are the questions I'll keep returning to. Which teams look prepared rather than merely talented? Which tactical changes are producing visible results? Which preseason ah concerns are becoming real patterns and which are being disproven?
Mikey Morales: And is the market reacting appropriately or is it still relying too heavily on reputation and last season's results? You don't need to follow every transfer rumor, injury update, or tactical adjustment by yourself. Part of the show, really, the purpose of the show is to sort of sort through the information and and identify what could actually affect the weekend.
Mikey Morales: On Thursday, we'll use these factors to prepare the matches ahead of us for this week's La Liga. And then on Monday, we'll return to the evidence and ask what we truly learned. An audit. Because the first week we first weeks aren't only about which teams win, they're about discovering which of our preseason assumptions can survive contact contact with the actual season.
Mikey Morales: So that's how I'm going end this episode, and that's how I'm gonna end our first inaugural episode one of the show. I'll see you guys on Thursday, and we'll tackle some of those first match days together. I'm really looking forward it. I'm excited to see you soon.
