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Calgary/Edmonton Municipal Roundtable
73 Plays4 years ago
The UCP have dramatically changed the rules around municipal elections in Alberta making it easier for conservatives to win and for big money to sway elections. We dissect the rule changes and the upcoming municipal horse races in Edmonton and Calgary with Romy Garrido.
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Transcript
Introduction to Municipal Politics Discussion
00:00:16
Speaker
Friends and enemies, welcome to The Progress Report. I am your host, Duncan Kinney, and we're recording today here in lovely Amiskwetchiwiskigan, otherwise known as Edmonton, Alberta. So, municipal politics. People like to say that municipal politics is the level of politics that touches the most people. Garbage collection, parks, playgrounds, recreation centers, libraries, that kind of thing. And people aren't wrong.
00:00:40
Speaker
But it's also just an incredibly important level of politics beyond the level, the day-to-day humdrum services that they provide. They're a proving ground for important ideas, and we're even having this national or even international discussion about defunding the police, which is happening at the municipal level.
00:01:02
Speaker
And to talk about kind of municipal political issues and to kind of walk us through both the issues, both here at Edmonton as well as in Calgary, and that's the expertise that our guest provides. We have Romi Garrido as our guest. Romi has worked in municipal politics, community organizing, and is a commentator on equity and migration issues.
What is Bill 29 and its Impact on Elections?
00:01:20
Speaker
Romi, welcome to the pod. Hey, thanks for having me. How are you?
00:01:24
Speaker
doing okay, doing okay. Today's been a bit of a day, but I am happy to get on the pod and chat in municipal politics. Let's do it. Okay, so the big thing that is kind of dominating the discussion around municipal politics is recent changes introduced by the UCP. So they've come in with Bill 29,
00:01:44
Speaker
otherwise called the Local Authorities Election Amendment Act, which makes significant changes to how municipal elections in Alberta will work. And just to be clear, the next municipal election in Alberta, kind of across the province, will be relatively soon. We're talking fall of next year, October, whatever the third Monday is, in October 2021.
00:02:05
Speaker
And this amendment these changes that you see brought in are on top of changes that the NDP brought in as well so it gets a little bit kind of sticky unraveling all of these things. But let's get into it because it is important and these changes are going to change how our elections work so.
00:02:27
Speaker
Okay, the biggest thing that I think is worth talking about off the top, and that's a change that the NDP brought in, which the UCP are not amending, and that is no more corporate or union donations in municipal elections. This now means that all levels of government, Alberta, federal, provincial, municipal, now have this rule. Romy, how do you think this changes how candidates will raise money? How do you think this changes the dynamics of municipal politics in Alberta?
00:02:50
Speaker
Yeah, so I mean, on the surface, it seems like banning corporate and union donations together is a good thing. And I celebrated it as a good thing, I think when the NDP brought those changes in in 2018. But now the UCP is changing things on the other side and allowing more flexibility with individual donations, which I'm sure we'll talk about the impacts of that.
00:03:15
Speaker
But really all that it's doing now is it's keeping those donations banned, but it's just shifting the money to the owners of corporations.
Who Benefits from Donation Rule Changes?
00:03:26
Speaker
And I just want us to think about that for a second, because we know it's pretty obvious the owners of businesses and large corporations
00:03:34
Speaker
have money. It's not just their business. They individually are profiting and are wealthy. Okay, so what about unions? That doesn't really apply. You know, we don't have rich union leaders as much as maybe some in the opposition would like to make it appear that way. We just don't. Union leadership, it's not on the same scale. Union members are definitely not on the same scale as corporate owners. So now, sure,
00:04:00
Speaker
Union and corporate donations are banned and we're treating them like they're the same thing, but the short end of the stick ends up with unions. And now corporate owners are going to get to donate tons of money to all their favorite candidates and what's left for progressives and people that don't have that kind of disposable income.
00:04:20
Speaker
Yeah, I think you make a good point. The discourse around, oh, we're banning union and corporate donations does place them on a level playing field. But one, corporations always donated far more than unions. And two, the owners of these corporations hoard and have access to far more wealth than the leaders, the democratically elected leaders of these unions, of these labor organizations.
00:04:47
Speaker
Strictly speaking, from a nerd point of view, when I dig through these disclosures, which I do a lot of both in my spare time and for articles I'm writing, I get to know who exactly is donating, which removes that one layer of obfuscation and also no more numbered corporations donating, which has always been sketchy. It's not a bad thing. Obviously, I would
00:05:10
Speaker
I don't want unions and corporate. I don't want corporate donations at all. I think the union donations is far overblown and isn't a very good use of union money anyways, I would argue, from a purely strategic point of view. I'm glad that they didn't change it because I think if they changed it, it would have drastically changed the dynamics and really wouldn't have made any sense to have municipal politics be the only level of government that has corporate and union donations be allowed.
00:05:40
Speaker
Totally. No, and I agree, but then it's just tipping the scale though to the individual donor. I mean, what should have happened is, yeah, ban corporate and union donations, but then make it a bit harder for wealthy individuals to be able to donate tons of cash because now
00:05:56
Speaker
What's going to be happening is that candidates will be looking to the highest bidder to fund their campaigns, right? Like everyday people don't have $5,000, which is now the limit to throw around. And I struggle to just donate $100 myself to any sort of cause, let alone 5,000. And now that that limit's been lifted to all candidates, you can donate to as many as you want. That's ridiculous.
How Do Increased Donation Limits Affect Elections?
00:06:23
Speaker
Yeah, that's an excellent segue to the next, which I think is the biggest and most important change that was made in the legislation that the UCP brought in. The way the NDP had structured it, you had a maximum cap. You were only able to donate $4,000 total to any city council candidate across Alberta.
00:06:40
Speaker
Now, thanks to the changes brought in by the UCP, those rich people and owners of corporations and incredibly wealthy people are now able to donate $5,000, so a slight bump in the amount, as well as they're able to donate that amount to as many candidates as they want. Which, again, only affects a small handful of wealthy developer shitheads, right?
00:07:04
Speaker
Yeah, it does. But I mean, the amount of cash that they can wield around is huge because I mean, in Calgary, if you do the math, so that means that if you've got $75,000, you could actually donate those to an entire slate of, I'm going to assume in this case, conservative candidates that are, you know, putting out
00:07:26
Speaker
business interests and that sort of policy that that would appease to your own interests, right? So it's an incredible amount of money. Sure, it's a few, but it's going to tip the scales again. And the other thing I've been focusing on, which not a lot of people have caught for some reason, even though it was in the presser, it's been an explicit point, is that now candidates can self fund up to $10,000 for their campaigns per year.
00:07:54
Speaker
So not only do we now have big money from the donation side, but we're also going to have possibly really wealthy candidates because I mean, in theory per year, you'd think that's within the election period, which they've said is only one year, but there's no specification that it's during the campaign period. There's a loophole.
00:08:12
Speaker
And it actually says per year in the presser and in the legislation. So I mean, if you think about it, that's what, $40,000 of self-funding per year? Who has that kind of money? I don't. I know a lot of people don't. So wealthy donors and wealthy candidates.
00:08:29
Speaker
Yeah, that's a good point. That is a bit of a loophole. $10,000 per year self-funded that you're just able to throw into your campaign account. That's a lot of money. They're trying to spin it as this like, oh, we want new candidates. We want people to win and incumbents to lose. It's like, I don't know, if I was an incumbent, I would just put $10,000 a year into my campaign fund because I know I know an election's coming up and the rules say that I can.
00:08:52
Speaker
The other loophole that I think also has been talked about very much is they've raised the amount that you can raise in the offices in from $2,000 to $5,000. And I believe they've added the per year language as well. So you can raise, you can go and have a fundraiser, go have like a rubber chicken dinner, raise $5,000 every year. That's not the election year. And so you say you've put $4,000 into your
00:09:13
Speaker
But say you put $40,000 into your kitty from your own personal fortune and then you've gone and had fundraisers every year, another 20, that's $60,000 you're starting with before the election period has even begun.
00:09:25
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. No, and I mean in Calgary, I'm sure in Edmonton this happened too, but smaller, relatively unknown candidates that are going against incumbents, which is the thing that the UCP said they're trying to fix. I mean, some of their campaigns were under $5,000. That's all they could scrounge up. So giving other people a $60,000 head start in the name of making things a level playing field, that's
00:09:50
Speaker
I don't know. Is it disingenuous? Is it evil? I can't really tell what the intention here is, but it's certainly not leveling the playing field. That's for sure. I'm happy to step in with my own analysis. They're making it easier for their candidates to win. Ultimately, that's why this legislation has been brought in.
00:10:12
Speaker
they talk to their buddies who are in municipal politics and they're like, we're going to change the rules. And this is what they came up with. I don't think that there's any way to spin it that they wouldn't be doing this for their own reasons for their own allies to win.
Financial Influences in Calgary's Politics
00:10:27
Speaker
And I think when you look at the way that they've changed the rules, it inherently advantages rich people. The whole spin around incumbents is extremely bad faith and just disingenuous bullshit.
00:10:46
Speaker
The one thing you can say about the UCP is that they are unabashedly in politics, one, to win, and two, to tilt the playing field to their own interests as much as possible, and that's what's happened here.
00:10:59
Speaker
Yeah, no, exactly. In that same vein, they're talking about how they're leveling the playing field because the old rules would allow incumbents to win. But we haven't actually had an election yet with these so-called old rules that the NDP put in in 2018. So what they did is they made this look a lot like the even more older rules, the ones that actually allowed for incumbents to have an advantage.
00:11:23
Speaker
So it's just a bunch of bullshit at the end of the day. You're right. I don't know why I tried to give them the benefit of the doubt. I think I always try, but I end up pretty sad and disappointed at the end.
00:11:35
Speaker
No, you got to be extremely cynical about the UCP. Like their political project is one that is like, you know, it's, it's damn the torpedoes, you know, burn the, let's get rich while we burn the world. And like, they will, they will tilt every table. They will put every thumb on the scale. Like they're, they're shameless and they have been since they've come in. They've only been in for a year and kind of look at the damage they've already caused, right? Yeah, I guess I just, I don't know. I, I wish they were just a bit more honest about their insidiousness, but anyway, I guess that's politics.
00:12:04
Speaker
Okay, so one thing I'm curious about, I grew up in Calgary, but I left Calgary in 2009. I'm curious, who are the big spenders on municipal politics? Who are the people who are most concerned about putting friendly faces in City Hall?
00:12:22
Speaker
Yeah, the story is as old as time, right? It doesn't change, I think, between cities. But if we're being specific, it's obviously a lot of developers and usually the suburban developers are the ones wielding the most cash. And there's also just more of them in a sprawling city like Calgary. So, I mean, when we think about big spenders that will probably benefit from these rules, I immediately think of Cal and Shane Wenzel with Shane Holmes that are known to
00:12:51
Speaker
really insert themselves in municipal politics in the past. I mean, they sued Nahid Nenshi and have done a bunch of other stuff and allied themselves with other people in the game. We always think about people involved in the stampede, the owners of the flames because of their interests in a new arena.
00:13:11
Speaker
And then recently, we just saw it in a campaign against public transit, right? Like multi-millionaires like Jim Gray and
What Role Does Third-Party Advertising Play?
00:13:20
Speaker
some of his other UCP-linked friends, interestingly enough, like Steve Allen. Steve Allen, baby, our friend from Public Inquiry. Exactly. He's been too busy trying to stop public transit from getting going to actually do his homework and figure out that if that conspiracy theory that Jason Kenney is talking about is real or not.
00:13:40
Speaker
Right, right. I almost forgot about that. Yeah, well, no, they've got so much work ahead of them and, boy, do they work fast. So, yeah, no, they were really involved with the Green Line campaign in Calgary, which I know you folks talked about in your past podcast episodes.
00:13:58
Speaker
And they lost, but boy, they did put a big fight because they hired a PR firm and they were pumping out Facebook ads like there's no tomorrow. So that was just a small taste, an example of what kind of third party advertising can look like when there's big money involved.
00:14:20
Speaker
Yeah, they spent a lot of money and took up a lot of space on that green line discussion, right? And something that was like, something that they lost kind of terribly on, like even their so-called proponents like Davidson and Gondek or whatever ended up.
00:14:34
Speaker
eventually voting for the Green Line as it was supposed to be built. But you're right in that I think it does offer a useful window into the kind of third-party campaigns that we are going to see in this upcoming municipal election. And there have been recent changes to law that have been brought in, not specifically in this Local Authorities Election Act, but in other legislation that Kenny has brought in just in this most recent session.
00:14:55
Speaker
that change how the rules work around third party campaigns. And that's incredibly important because again, there are incredibly wealthy people who want to have their own political goals and political projects that they want to see realized. And even if they spread around, even if they spend the max on every candidate and the mayoral candidate, that's only $5,000 per, they still have more money burning a hole in their pocket and they're going to want to run
00:15:24
Speaker
They're going to want to run advertising. They're going to want to see their political goals realized. What do you think is the likelihood that we are going to see these kind of big spending super PACs or third party advertisers in the next municipal election in Calgary?
00:15:37
Speaker
Yeah, oh my gosh, there's a lot to unpack there. So as I understand it, I think the rules are lifted now so that third party advertisers can spend way more, right? I think it was 100,000.
00:15:54
Speaker
Exactly. And the original cap was $150,000. But there's a bit of a caveat there, too, that you only have to register as a third party advertiser if you're talking about candidates, right? So if you're just going to do issues campaigning, just like the Green Line anti-public transit campaign, where you're not really personally attacking or promoting anybody, you don't have to register as a third party advertiser.
00:16:20
Speaker
So it seems like it's like the wild, wild west where it's free rain and they'll be able to do whatever the hell they want and spend however much the hell they want, which is super scary. As you said, they've got lots of money, burning holes in
How Does the Equalization Referendum Affect Municipal Politics?
00:16:35
Speaker
their pockets, several holes, and they're going to be poking a lot more holes into the municipal campaigns.
00:16:42
Speaker
and trying to influence public thought. I don't know. I think there's also a bit more to say in terms of what that will be looking like and rolling out with the equalization vote. Exactly. Yeah. So I don't know if you want to go there yet or
00:17:01
Speaker
I definitely have some thoughts on third parties. I think we definitely saw a lot of third party advertising in the lead up and during the provincial election that happened last year. I think that was a trial run for what we're going to see here in the municipal elections in both Edmonton and Calgary. I think the conservatives definitely have their eyes on Edmonton City Council and the Edmonton Mayor Chair in that
00:17:25
Speaker
Um, they want to win and they, they see Edmonton as, you know, they lost here provincially and they are going to raise and pour a ton of money into Edmonton municipal races, as well as, uh, if they find a candidate they like for the mayor seat, they will pour a ton of money into that, uh, in a third party. Like I firmly believe that we are going to see big third party spending here in Edmonton.
00:17:45
Speaker
to try and get conservative candidates elected simply because it is the kind of like last, like it is the orange stronghold here when you kind of look at the electoral map and purely from like a, from a provincial electoral politics play, I think we're very likely to see big money rolling into Edmonton politics just for those reasons.
00:18:03
Speaker
Um, I don't think that Edmonton City Council is this like incredible vanguard or defense against, uh, UCP or provincial government austerity. Um, just to be clear, uh, but, uh, but, uh, these, the UCP are nothing if not kind of incredibly greedy. And I think Edmonton is likely to be, uh, seen as a, as a, I think Edmonton is going to be a target for them.
00:18:27
Speaker
When it comes to Calgary 2, again, there's just so much money sloshing around. There's just so many grifters willing to make pitches and to promise the moon when it comes to these third parties that there's going to be money raised, there's going to be money spent, whether it's going to be useful
00:18:46
Speaker
It's obviously way too early to tell. I kind of am generally ambivalent about kind of big advertising campaigns, but I think we're going to see them. Whether I think they're effective or not, I think we're definitely going to be talking about them.
00:19:03
Speaker
I do think that municipalities in Alberta, and specifically Calgary and Edmonton, are a bit of a thorn in the side of the UCP. They're nonpartisan, they're a bit of a mixed bag, they've got some allies, but overall, again, the Green Line vote
00:19:21
Speaker
went in a way that I would argue the UCP probably didn't want it to go. I don't know that I'd go as far as saying that there were UCP insiders that were a part of the whole public transit campaign opposition, just because I think it's much simpler than that, right? It's like development interests and folks wanting to make the train and public transit go to places where it's going to boost their property values kind of thing.
00:19:50
Speaker
Um, but, but of course, I'm sure Kenny would have loved to have not funded that, right? And, and have a little bit more money to work with provincially. So, um, but anyway, my point is that I do think that the Calgary council and Edmonton, they're a bit more progressive than the UCP would like. And so if they could get everybody on side and just elect a slate of their own candidates, then they don't have to worry about them.
00:20:14
Speaker
And to go back to the third party stuff, you kind of brought it up, this referendum on equalization that Kenny has said is now going to happen and is very likely going to be overlapping with the municipal election. It's transparently a way to kind of have a municipal election that's not about municipal politics, right? And Kenny kind of very famously won the last provincial election, not by necessarily running against Rachel Notley, but by running against Trudeau.
00:20:41
Speaker
I think he would much rather have his municipal proxies run against Trudeau again. Trudeau is incredibly unpopular here in Alberta. He's a very useful boogeyman for them. He'd rather run a municipal campaign or be a part of a municipal campaign that focused on Trudeau rather than the brutal austerity that he is enabling and enacting on both Edmonton and Calgary.
00:21:05
Speaker
Yeah, no, definitely. So I think Nahad Nenshi was quoted as saying that it's going to be disrespectful to run a referendum during a municipal campaign because of course the obvious thing is that it'll be the main issue and it's going to overshadow local politics.
00:21:24
Speaker
I'm looking at the third party advertising rules and how it's going to be a lot easier for third party advertisers, packs, unions, corporations, whatever, to be able to run on issues and not on candidates.
00:21:41
Speaker
And then I'm thinking about this equalization referendum. And I think disrespectful is putting it incredibly lightly. I think they're cooking up a perfect storm. It seems pretty insidious that you're allowing for third party advertisers during a referendum to be able to say whatever the heck they want, because there's just no regulations and spending as much as they can.
00:22:09
Speaker
So what I'm predicting that's going to happen is that it's not just going to overshadow local politics. It's going to overpower, right? Like they're absolutely going to suck all the air out of the room. And the worst part I think is that.
00:22:25
Speaker
Issues that are incredibly important, you mentioned them in the intro of this episode, things like transit, right? Just equitable public services that really are tangible and make a difference in people's lives. Those are out the window for next election because the equalization question
00:22:43
Speaker
is going to force all candidates to have to talk about that. I can't imagine people understanding the difference. They don't know the difference right now. And you don't expect people to, right? They're just trying to live their lives. And they mentioned the different powers of different levels of government and what, like social studies, 20. It was a long time ago for different people.
00:23:06
Speaker
And so they're not going to know the difference that we're not focusing on municipal issues and that provincial is completely taking over.
00:23:15
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. The question here is, will he get away with it? And I think he will. I think he's going to unmistakably try and take over this municipal election cycle by talking about the Trudeau and equalization. And just to be clear, I probably don't have to belabor it for the audience of this podcast, but a referendum on equalization in Alberta
00:23:39
Speaker
means exactly jack shit and has no effect on anything that the federal government does when it comes to equalization in anything. Totally. Anybody who says otherwise is an idiot who is lying to you. It's completely useless. Yeah. I mean, we've got so many experts, even economists that we would think might be more on the side of conservative politics are just shouting through the rooftops that this is going to be a giant waste of money. It's not going to make a difference whatsoever.
00:24:08
Speaker
Um, but yet, yeah, it's going to be just another proxy provincial election where everyone's going to be talking about this Alberta versus Trudeau. Uh, no one's going to give a fuck about things like public transit. Um, and the, you know, the topics that are super important today, like defunding the police and, and just making a more equitable just city, not at all.
Legislative Changes Favoring Conservative Candidates
00:24:31
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. So there's a couple more things that I want to talk about on the legislation and then I kind of want to get into the specifics of Calgary, Edmonton, because I think there's some rich texture. You do find characters in municipal politics, good and bad. So the thing that kind of Nenshi has been lighting his hair on fire about and the thing he called the enormous mistake is the part of the legislation that changes disclosure of donors before election day. This is something Nenshi has been kind of
00:24:58
Speaker
Very keen to talk about he's done it in all his campaigns. He's disclosed his donors before E Day. What's your take on this change? I mean, yeah, it's bad. But is it as bad as he's saying it is? No, I think I don't know. I think you and I are probably on the same page. It's, it's more inside baseball. Like, yes, it makes things or rather it
00:25:22
Speaker
It takes away transparency from municipal politics, but the amount of people that actually go through candidate donations is, I would wager pretty small. I don't know the realistic stats behind it, but yeah, like people kind of have a good sense of who's supporting who based on just some of their campaign points, right? Like if you're pro suburban development, then very likely you've got those allies behind you funding your campaign.
00:25:50
Speaker
So, I don't know. I understand where he's coming from. Yeah, is it shitty? Absolutely. But is it the biggest sticking point out of all of this? No. The biggest sticking points are all the things that you and I have been just talking about. But that requires a little bit more speculation and political analysis that maybe Nahid Nenshi shouldn't be doing as an elected official. Or maybe he should. Maybe he should.
00:26:15
Speaker
I mean, I would rather know, rather than wait six months to know prior to, I would rather know prior to election day than wait six months to know who funded a campaign. But yeah, like, does it move votes? Is it ultimately super important to the results of an election? I don't believe so. And yeah, and like, Nenshi's kind of made a big deal of it. And it's a stupid thing to repeal. Like, the spin from the UCP about why they made this change is like very dumb. It's like, oh, we want candidates to focus on the important act of getting elected. And it's like, okay,
00:26:41
Speaker
If you're keeping track of your donations, which you have to anyways, it's like, oh, you've got a deadline and you've got to get some paperwork in. You've got volunteers and a team. It's not a big deal to disclose to your donors prior to eDay. I think we're almost wrapped up talking about, there's one final change.
00:27:00
Speaker
to the local elections act that is worth bringing up. And it's a change I can only assume that the chartered accountants of Alberta lobbied heavily for. And that is that candidates who raise or spend more than $50,000 in a municipal campaign are now required to have a chartered accountant review their financial statements before submitting them.
00:27:18
Speaker
Yeah, I mean that sounds like it'll bring transparency to the process, but that's a good point. I hadn't really thought about how it'll bring a little bit more business to those folks. I wonder if they, yeah, are they struggling? What's your take? I don't have a take on this one. I think it's silly. It's very silly. It's, I mean, good for the chartered accounts of Alberta to get a little bit more work.
00:27:38
Speaker
Ultimately, you should clear up any problems that campaigns have in regards to getting their financials in proper order. You've been a part of campaigns. I've been a part of municipal campaigns. Ultimately, it's not too difficult to track who is donating and how much.
00:27:53
Speaker
That's all that really needs to be disclosed, but it is very funny. Then the final wrap-up question on the issues of these legislative changes to how our local elections work is, how do you think these changes ultimately help conservative candidates win? That is ultimately why I believe the legislation has been brought in. Why don't we just do that final rundown of how this helps conservative candidates win?
00:28:22
Speaker
Yeah, well, I mean, yeah, besides what I talked about before, which I really predict is going to be just massively important that they're going to suck all the air out of the room by issues that are important to people like yourself and myself that care about equity and justice are just are not going to be on the table whatsoever. But you know, there's some political commentators and journalists who've been I think correctly predicting that it's just also going to bring out
00:28:50
Speaker
You know a turnout of maybe different kinds of people that wouldn't come out to vote for their local elections But are just they've got an axe to grind with Trudeau and they don't even understand why which is the worst part And that's why I think the third party advertising is going to be just so insidious Because there's nothing that has to hold you to giving out the right information, right?
00:29:13
Speaker
Like, we all know that the equalization thing for some reason is complicated to both explain and understand. And people are mad for the wrong reasons because they don't understand it and they're going off of erroneous information or oversimplified information. And you really think that third party advertisers and
00:29:32
Speaker
Conservative PACs are going to try to, you know, divulge this information in a correct way. Probably not. They're just going to be talking about how, you know, this is unfair for Alberta and, you know, we're the ugly duckling and it's time to get some fairness out of Ottawa, blah, blah, blah. Just trying to rile up their base, rather.
00:29:53
Speaker
And hopefully, I think in their point of view, bring out more conservative voters that will elect likely a conservative slate that I'm thinking the UCP is probably setting up already. Yeah, there are a bunch of things in this legislation in these changes that I think tilt the scales towards.
00:30:10
Speaker
helping elect more conservative city councilors. One is the ability of conservative candidates to go out and raise money from rich people. Those rich people are now able to give the max donation to multiple candidates. Really, that only helps incumbents or conservative candidates who are able to raise money from ultra rich developers.
00:30:34
Speaker
Yes, you're entirely correct. The third party stuff advantages conservatives in exactly the points you reasoned. It is very likely to raise turnout. It is very likely to raise turnout for the people who give a shit about Trudeau.
00:30:46
Speaker
Like turnout in municipal elections tends to be the lowest out of all levels, and there are a variety of reasons for that, I think. But if you've got kind of the provincial political machine, especially the conservative one, kind of bearing down on municipal politics, it is definitely going to raise turnout. It's definitely going to raise turnout for...
00:31:05
Speaker
people who give a shit about Trudeau and equalization, who are very unlikely to vote for kind of good municipal candidates. The other things we talked about, like the ability to self-fund raise the rules around that I think are very kind of like only really help rich incumbents, the spin around trying to get
00:31:25
Speaker
uh, you know, upstart candidates to win is kind of just bullshit spin. Uh, yeah, it's, it's, it's battle round and, uh, you know, you hate, you hate to see it, but, uh, this is the reality of Alberta. We hate to see it. Uh, but yeah, you know what? We can't give up hope though, right? Like the rules have always been stacked against progressives, against leftists.
00:31:48
Speaker
So I think that's just par for the course.
Will Mayors Nenshi and Iveson Run Again?
00:31:51
Speaker
It's going to make it an uphill battle for sure, but just means all the more that we have to come out and keep rallying our own troops and organizing more progressive leftist people to elect better people.
00:32:03
Speaker
Exactly. On that end, let's get into the things that we need to be paying attention to in the Calgary race. Are there any races to watch in Calgary? Do we have any bright leftist candidates to support or talk about or even contemplate going into this next municipal election cycle?
00:32:23
Speaker
Calgary, anyway, it might be a little too early to tell. There's been some recent announcements of people that are not running again, that have been incumbents in the past, but not a lot of all-stars. Actually, I think there's more worry about what's going to happen next because there's rumors that Nahad Nenshi won't be running again, that this last election was his last one.
00:32:48
Speaker
It's funny that I talked about, we can't give up hope. Things are looking a little bit grim, but it might just be too early to tell. I don't know. Let's get into the horse race politics, the municipal election round table, which is definitely going to be the graphic for this podcast, by the way, the Simpsons municipal round table graphic. I don't know if it's immediately in your brain, but I will send it to you after the pod. So is Nenshi going to run again? What's your view there?
00:33:16
Speaker
Well, so rumor has it that he's not, but I think a lot changes in just a year, right? So I think halfway through this term, you could tell he's tired.
00:33:30
Speaker
He's been fighting a lot of battles and he doesn't really have a ton of allies on council too, which makes things a lot harder. So is he gonna run again? I don't think so, but I think this whole UCP hoopla election rules, and then possibly not seeing somebody else that could take your place, that you have confidence will do a good job, I think might actually push him over the edge and he might run again.
00:34:00
Speaker
Yeah, it's interesting. When you look at Edmonton, I mean, no one knows what Don Iveson is planning on. He has two terms in his mayor. He's had two terms as a city councilor. He's had two terms as a mayor for, I don't know, more than 10, 12 years or so as an elected official. I think he got elected when he was 28 years old, which by the way, is a giant red flag. Anyone getting elected in their 20s? Oh my God. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, that is the big domino to fall in both cities, I think, right?
00:34:31
Speaker
where when the mayor's race, whether the incumbent mayor decides to run again or not, I think determines a lot of whether there's going to be a lot of open seats because there are a lot of counselors jockeying for position. And who in Calgary do you think is jockeying for that mayor's chair who's currently on city council?
00:34:49
Speaker
Oh, that's exactly it. Like you just took the words out of my mouth. It changes everything. It's like a domino effect, right? So I think if, if Nodhead decides not to run again, for some reason, it's always more like the newbies that have a lot more energy.
00:35:04
Speaker
that get pretty excited about being on council their first term. I think they're taking on the world and making a huge difference and so they think that they can also go for the mayor's chair. Clearly I'm speaking of everybody on council and in municipal politics in a very good, non-jaded light as you can tell. But there's actually some good people on there so maybe I should cool it.
00:35:29
Speaker
Um, so we're thinking of, you know, people like Jodi Gondek. I don't know if your listeners are really that familiar with Calgary, uh, municipal politics. Yeah, we get a lot of Calgary. We're split pretty evenly. We're like 60, 40 Edmonton Calgary.
00:35:43
Speaker
Nice. Okay. So I'll just drop names and hope that everybody knows who I'm talking about. But yeah, we've got Joti Gondek. We've got people like Jeff Davison, whom some people may have not heard of a ton, but he's mostly made the news because of the arena vote and also because... Mr. Arena Man, right? Mr. Arena Man, exactly. And then also he was quite allied with the whole anti-public transit, anti-green line campaign too. So that was not a good look.
00:36:09
Speaker
But yeah, him and Joti Gondek and then possibly Woolley, not a lot of progressives around the table looking at the mayor's chair though. That's the unfortunate part. Yeah, and there's no seemingly like kind of outside of city politics person that I would
00:36:24
Speaker
I would call a leftist that is eyeing up the mayor's chair either that I've heard of. It's not that I've necessarily beat the bushes or as connected as you are to Calgary politics. No, you're on the money. Yeah, exactly. There's nobody that's non-involved that's also like a superstar or anything. Actually, I would argue the same thing for right-wing politicians too, or would be. There's nobody. Yeah, it's strange that there's some, I guess almost every freaking UCP MLA won their race in Calgary, right?
00:36:53
Speaker
You know, unsatisfied, dissatisfied, angry, UCP candidate. True. And once he's based, Tom Olsen, who was one of the few to lose in Calgary, already has a sweet six-figure job where he doesn't have to do very much. Oh, I forgot about him. Thanks for reminding me. War room, baby. War room.
00:37:11
Speaker
And I mean, in Edmonton, it's very much the same, right? No one knows what Ivison is going to do. The people who are eyeing up the mayor's chair, our existing councillors, Mike Nichol, who is a bit of a joke and a bit of a kind of like poorly made meme machine up here in Edmonton. He is definitely running for mayor, whether Ivison steps down or not. Okay.
00:37:34
Speaker
He famously ran for a UCP nomination and lost. He's also just kind of been this presence on council, this kind of curmudgeonly, very like Rick McIvery type of presence, someone who says no all the time, someone who's very concerned about the taxpayer dollar, show me the numbers, that kind of thing.
00:37:51
Speaker
Whether Edmonton has any appetite for that, I don't imagine. I mean, he has run for mayor before and lost. He actually lost Don Ivison in one of the very few cases where an incumbent lost to an upstart candidate.
00:38:07
Speaker
was planted by Don Iveson in a municipal race, God knows how many years ago, in like 2006 or 2007 or something. But he's definitely in the mayor's chair up in here in Edmonton. Michael Walters, I think, definitely has designs on the mayor's chair. I think that's contextual on whether Iveson runs or not. I don't know if he really wants to take Iveson on. Maybe he thinks he can do it. He definitely has a very high opinion of himself.
00:38:31
Speaker
Um, but, uh, we shall see. And then, um, that's really it. I would think maybe Sarah Hamilton thinks she has it. If it's an open seat, Sarah Hamilton might think she can take it on. She kind of comes from the like Steven Mendel.
00:38:45
Speaker
world she might think she can take on the mayor's chair, but they're not a lot of people. Just clearly, Mike Nichol is the only one who's kind of clearly champion at the bit to take on the mayor's race, whether Iveson runs or not. And everyone else I think is kind of lying back and waiting to see what happens. And to be frank, like COVID and the pandemic has really kind of put a crimp in anyone kind of openly campaigning too. And Iveson rarely seems to get a lot of opposition in his last campaigns anyway. I'm thinking about the last one too. It felt like he was just running by himself.
00:39:15
Speaker
Yes, the last election, mayoral election here was a joke. Yeah, there was not a credible candidate. I think he took like 70% of the vote or something. Yeah. Oh, God. Wow. Yeah, no, not the case in Calgary. It's always an uphill battle. It's always been for Naheed. I think his first campaign was probably the most positive just because he sort of came up the middle and nobody really
Open Seats and Opportunities for New Candidates
00:39:36
Speaker
saw him coming. But he's just so personable and so good with the words that he did really well. But yeah, ever since it's been
00:39:43
Speaker
It's been pretty hard on him, so must be nice. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, that Marcasoff, that Jason Marcasoff article in McLean's about Na'head, he seemed pretty beat down and pretty worn out by the process of dealing with municipal politics in Calgary for so many years. It seems like an incredibly shitty job to have. I mean, being an elected official is
00:40:07
Speaker
a shitty job kind of anyways. And like being mayor seems to, you get a lot of shit and you don't actually have a lot of power too, right? So. Yeah. No, no, I agree. I guess I was saying it must be nice for someone like Ivison to just, you know, run against pumpkins basically. Like I, I don't, yeah, Calgary, it just seems like I was so exhausted last election. And so Edmonton, I don't know what it is. Like it's just a more progressive city.
00:40:34
Speaker
I don't, I don't know. It's just, no one, Iveson just is this like tall, handsome, bland politician who doesn't have any, doesn't have very many ambitions to just not have a clear political project that he's like putting forward.
00:40:47
Speaker
And people are happy to say, okay, I guess, you know, I mean, it's not like, I mean, municipal turnout in municipal elections is low, right? And, you know, I think it's low for a handful of reasons, but one of which is, I mean, we don't, there isn't, people aren't running on the, you know, changing people's material conditions. People are not running on like, I will make your life better. People are running on like,
00:41:08
Speaker
I will marginally lower your property taxes or I will maybe get public transit built, slightly more public transit built over the next 10 years than the next guy. It's all on the edges. No one is actually going out and doing politics in a populist left wing approach and saying that, and actually clearly elucidating a political project that is going to make people's lives better and might actually get people to show up at a polling booth, right?
00:41:36
Speaker
Yeah, that's what we're aiming for. And then she too, I mean, for all the kind of plaudity gets across Canada as this progressive mayor, like he has kind of pretty milk toast liberal politics and then has been dealt with a reactionary kind of city council almost his entire tenure, right? So he's never been able to actually like get shit done.
00:41:59
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. I think he's just, again, he's just so personable, very good with the words that even if he might have some blander politics than I would like him to, I'd love for him to take some bolder stances. He always just sounds so nice. Yeah. Let's get into the nuts and bolts. What are the exciting open seats we are likely to see in Calgary come the next election?
00:42:25
Speaker
Well, I don't think people find it exciting, but I would definitely argue that it's important. So there's Ray Jones' seat, who I think is likely retiring. I think he's been on council the longest, along with Diane Colly Urquhart. Maybe one of the each other forever.
00:42:46
Speaker
Yeah, and very much not contested. I feel like that would actually be a award that would be easy to win. But anyway, so back to Ray Jones though. He has a award in Calgary, Ward 10, that I would argue is super important. It's Northeast Calgary. It's incredibly multicultural. And the reason it's important is because it's been so neglected.
00:43:07
Speaker
There's just not a ton of public investment that happens in that area, and I'm sure this is not new to you or anybody else listening to this podcast, but it seems like the amount of things that happen, and particularly public investments that happen in your ward, seem to be directly correlated with how hard that counselor for that ward is willing to fight and willing to work.
00:43:30
Speaker
Um, and so I don't think that Ray Jones has been doing a ton. He's one of those counselors that, you know, mostly says note everything. Uh, it's just an easy vote kind of thing. Um, when it comes to more conservative politics, or if he votes, yes, nobody notices and just again comes up the middle and just doesn't really offer a lot, right? Um, he's just there to vote if, if he's even there. Um, and he's near his retirement. So.
00:43:59
Speaker
I think that will be an incredibly important election or campaign rather because that part of the city that needs a lot of care. Other parts of the city that I think are good to look at are Shane Keating. He recently announced he's not going to run again. That's more South Calgary, which
00:44:18
Speaker
I think, you know, there's more conservative views down there, the wealthier incomes and whatnot. So it'll be interesting to see what happens there. We know that there's like a bit of a UCP insider type that's vying for that chair. And UCP's constant embarrassment is going to be running in Shane Keating's empty scene.
00:44:41
Speaker
I'm sure you know more about him than I do, actually. I don't try not to pay attention. You'd probably be better served to never knowing who Craig Chandler is, but he is a figure in Alberta conservative politics that is hard to ignore. And he's just said and done numerous fucked up things over the years. He's been involved in various controversies. My favorite Craig Chandler memory is of him. I was at the
00:45:09
Speaker
the final, the very last ever PC, Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta annual general meeting, and it also coincided, I believe, with the leadership race that crowned Jason Kennedy, leader of the PCs, because that's how he did it, right? He took over the PCs first and then reverse take over the wild roads. This was an event, it was over. Jason Kennedy had been crowned. The drinks were flowing. It was the
00:45:35
Speaker
The hospitality suites were going. They were buzzing. I was going from one hospitality suite to the other. On Stephen Avenue, between the two convention centers, I come out and a bunch of security guards are holding down Alan Hallman, the king of booze. This was the incident where I believe he was charged with assault. I don't think he ever went to court for it.
00:45:59
Speaker
uh, with charged with assault of a security guard. And, uh, Craig Chandler is there and he's like bellowing at everyone. He's like, if you want to, if you want the movement to succeed and survive, you got to go inside, not get out of here. I'm like, I'm like, uh, I'm like, I think I'm standing next to like Emma Graney or whatever. And I'm like, who is that on the ground? I couldn't see me. I had a bunch of people around him. He's like, Oh, that's Alan Allman. I was like, Oh, okay. That's my Craig Chandler is bellowing like an idiot.
00:46:25
Speaker
Oh, but why, why are they so messy? I always, I just don't see a lot of these stories coming out of more progressive people. It's always on the right. Greg Chandler is definitely a messy bitch. Yeah. And he is, uh, potentially going to be on Edmonton or Calgary city council. Uh, but I stepped all over you. So Keating is going, uh, that is, uh, he was big green line guy, right? And now he's stepping down and Chandler's the only person who was going to run any other kind of open seats. We need to keep an eye on in Calgary.
00:46:53
Speaker
That's it so far, I think. I mean, if Diane decides to step down, I think that'd be a big one. I think it'd be a good opportunity to get a progressive in there. That's the thing is that we're always focusing on the more inner-city progressive wards to elect progressive people because we think we don't really have a chance on the outer outskirts of Calgary, the suburbs.
00:47:14
Speaker
But the thing is, if you look at the competition that some of these suburban councilors have had, it's not a lot. They outspend their competitors by a ton. But the ratio of results, the amount of votes that they win by, it doesn't match the amount of money that they're putting in. So I think, yeah, I would be looking out for places like that. But it seems like everybody else seems well put. And not a lot's going to change unless Not Head doesn't run.
00:47:43
Speaker
Well, aren't Giancarlo Carra and Drew Farrell likely to not run again? Like I've heard rumblings that that is afoot as well. And those are two of the more progressive kind of lefty voices on city council.
00:47:55
Speaker
Yeah, well, full disclosure, I used to work for Drew Farrell. But even me having worked for her, I actually don't know if she's going to run again. And that's a fact I've tried. I've tried to ask and see. So I don't really know. I think they're also just waiting it out and seeing how bad it's going to get. I think most counselors start off saying,
00:48:17
Speaker
man, that was awful. The last campaign that we did, I'm exhausted. That's the last one. And they envisioned that in the next four years, they're going to get a ton done. And what happens is that they get a lot of pushback, four years, go by way too quickly. And then they're feeling themselves again. They're like, well, maybe I can go for another run. So I wouldn't totally discount Drew Farrell. And John Carlo, I think he's probably going to run again. I'm not sure what rumors you've heard, but I don't think he's going anywhere.
00:48:46
Speaker
I mean, you're closer to it than I am. I'm just saying what I'm hearing second, third hand. So that's good to hear. Edmonton, we have a bunch of empty seats. Tony Catarina is very likely to step down. He has a very central ward in kind of Northeast Edmonton that is quite
00:49:04
Speaker
multicultural, has a lot of working class folks. So that's a very interesting race. I know people are eyeing up that. Ben Henderson, who kind of is the kind of very underwhelming counselor for what is the like socialist stronghold of Alberta, like kind of Strathcona and kind of like Strathcona area south of the river. He is stepping down and I know a lot of people are interested in that seat as well.
00:49:30
Speaker
Scott McKean is the counselor for Downtown Edmonton. I'm pretty sure he's going to run again. I don't know. I think this would be his third term. I don't know, but those are like central wards where we might have open seats and open seats are always like shit shows. Lots of people are always very interested in open seats just because
00:49:47
Speaker
and no one wants to put in the work to try and unseat an incumbent. People do, since incumbents have such a massive advantage. But again, a lot of the other potential open seats are very contextual on what Ivison does, as we've kind of discussed.
Potential for Progressive Candidates and Civic Engagement
00:50:02
Speaker
So whether Walters runs again, I think is highly contextual on whether Ivison runs again, like maybe Bev Esslinger, maybe not that she would run for mayor, but I don't know if she wants to be
00:50:11
Speaker
counselor with a new mayor, she might step down. I don't know. I'm just kind of speculating at this point. But those are the races in admin 10 that I would be keeping an eye on. But the 678 are very central, very winnable for lefties. And we definitely need to focus on getting good people elected is what I would say about that.
00:50:32
Speaker
And so finally, I think it's worth closing off this, well, maybe a couple more things to talk about. But one thing I definitely want to bring up is, what do you think the likelihood that we see slates or kind of like quasi municipal political parties in this next election?
00:50:48
Speaker
Oh, yeah, I mean, we kind of we touched on that before quite a bit. So I definitely think we're going to see a ton of those. I already know that on the progressive side of things, there are groups that are gearing up to try to put up a bit of a fight.
00:51:04
Speaker
and get more progressive councillors elected. I mean, what we were talking about before, I was also sort of speculating, but it's no secret that usually things in Calgary are half and half. So you need eight votes to win. There's 14 wards plus the mayor. So you need eight votes to get anything done, really.
00:51:22
Speaker
And yeah, it's always kind of right around seven to eight votes, depending on the issue. And so we never really have like a certainty that we're going to be able to get things passed. So that all said, we're focusing on ensuring that progressive people stay. So hopefully, you know, Drew Farrell, John Carlo, Evan Woolley, who are considered the more progressive counselors right now,
00:51:49
Speaker
uh stay in their seats and then the rest of them um yeah that we actually try to give them a bit of a fight and get some more progressive people in but for sure I think lots of slates are going to be showing up uh lots of packs of all different kinds and that actually might be bad for progressives depending on how many different progressive groups there are if they don't work together and they're all trying to elect a bunch of different progressives in each ward then we're toast
00:52:16
Speaker
I mean, I've heard rumblings that the conservatives here in Edmonton are raising money, and whether it's just a very well-funded pack or whether it's a slate or a quasi-municipal political party, whatever it is, I think we're very likely to see a bunch of money sloshing around the municipal election. And how that shakes out, I think, depends on a variety of factors. And do the candidates actually want to be honestly together is probably
00:52:42
Speaker
Um, one of the bigger ones. Um, and, and the other question is like, yeah, it does, is, is the mayor or the leader of the slate? Like Mike, Nicole kind of doesn't really get along with anyone. I don't even think the UCP like him very much. So I don't, I don't see him as the, like, the head of a like conservative slate. So it's, it's a, it's an interesting time. And, uh, I definitely think, yeah, lots of money is going to get spent and how it shakes out is, is, will depend on a bunch of factors. Um, yeah. So.
00:53:12
Speaker
I look at other jurisdictions with longing, and I see socialists and outwardly leftist city councilors in places like Chicago and Minneapolis and New York, LA, the big cities. I wonder when we start having a movement that is capable of electing
00:53:37
Speaker
outwardly leftist, outwardly anti-capitalist elected officials. I'm wondering what you think has to happen before we get to that kind of place. Oh my God. We're talking about Calgary still? Yes. We're so far behind. I think people and movements like the ones we're seeing right now are absolutely key
00:54:02
Speaker
to giving politicians and would-be politicians the space to be able to speak their mind. I'm sure that there are progressive politicians, both in Calgary and Edmonton, that agree with a lot of the discourse right now around shifting police resources to more equitable solutions like public investments in community services.
00:54:26
Speaker
But they probably don't feel, at least in Calgary anyway, for sure in Calgary actually, now that I think about how Edmonton had a public hearing on specifically policing. In Calgary, they don't have, you know, the so-called social license to be able to even talk about that yet. Two councillors in the last
00:54:45
Speaker
I'd say four years, yeah, tried to bring up critiques of the Calgary Police Services, not even having to do with racial issues. And they just got absolute unprecedented backlash from police officers, from police officer families, relatives, friends, leaders within the community that somehow have whatever connections to CPS.
00:55:11
Speaker
And they were totally censored and just shut down and silenced. So Calgary's political landscape is very much one where we're still on the wrong side of history. We're shaming people for saying the right things. And yeah, I think it's all in the hands right now of the people, of the public, of young folks especially that are coming out and saying that Black Lives Matter without shame and with pride.
00:55:39
Speaker
I think those folks, we, community organizers, all of us, are responsible to be able to move the needle so that people can talk about things without fear. No, agreed. I think we're a ways away in Edmonton of electing any outwardly socialist or anti-capitalist elected officials.
00:56:02
Speaker
But you don't get there if you don't try. And if you are a person who is interested in electoral politics, if you have good politics, hit me up. I'm happy to both run you through the realities of being a candidate as well as the lay of the land. And the more good people who run, the better. If we don't engage in electoral politics,
00:56:22
Speaker
We will get reactionaries who take it over and then we will get reactionary electoral politics. It is incumbent upon us to engage in electoral politics, but I also think that you obviously can't put all of your eggs in the electoral politics basket. We do need to realize that social change comes about mostly through the streets. Minneapolis burned down a police station and they disbanded their police force a few days later and kicked the cops out of schools. Direct action does get the goods.
00:56:52
Speaker
Oh, I'm with you. And I think they're just very intimately connected, right? So I personally love community organizing a lot more than electoralism and having to do election campaigns.
00:57:08
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. We're not going to get anywhere if the ones that are controlling our laws and where we're putting our public funds are reactionaries. And the only way that we can get good people in, I think, is just shifting that needle I was talking about so that things become popular. And right now, it's very cool. It's very good that talking about policing and how bad it is and how
00:57:35
Speaker
you know, bad of a solution it is to a lot of our societal problems. It's good that we can actually talk about that. Calgary, not quite there yet, but I'm confident that the more that we talk about it in other places in the world, the more that community organizers come out with their signs and demand for action, the more that that electoralism will change for the better.
00:57:57
Speaker
Awesome. Well, thanks so much for coming on the show, Romy. What's the best way for people to follow you along? You have a very good Twitter account, but if you have anything else to plug, now is the time to plug your pluggables. Thanks. A very good Twitter account is putting it very nicely. Thank you. I'm just loud and obnoxious, but you can find me at RomyYYC. That's R-O-M-Y-Y-Y-C because of Calgary. It's my home.
00:58:23
Speaker
So yeah, you can find me online, hit me up as well if you ever want to chat. And that's about it for me. Thanks for having me.
00:58:30
Speaker
No, thank you. And if you like this podcast and you the listener, if you like this podcast, I know Romi liked it because she was on it for the whole hour, but if you want to keep hearing more podcasts like this, you want more people to listen to this podcast. There are a handful of things you can do which will materially affect that and change that and help grow our audience. One is to share this podcast. If you got a bunch of good insights, if you thought that we were funny or insightful or useful,
00:58:55
Speaker
share this podcast with your friends, your family, your neighbors, whether you're texting it to them, posting it on your social media walls, making a audio cassette tape and putting in the mail. I don't really care how you do it, but word of mouth is very much the strong way.
00:59:10
Speaker
The best way to kind of get the word out. The other thing that also really helps us out is that you can leave a comment. No, sorry, not leave a comment. Leave a review. Preferably a five-star review on your Podcatcher of Choice. It really does help people find the podcast, and it makes me feel good about myself when I read five-star reviews. So just consider it purely from an ego burst standpoint for me.
00:59:30
Speaker
And finally, the kind of biggest and bestest and most importantest way that you can support this pod is you can give us money. And the easiest way to give us money is to go to theprogressreport.ca slash patrons and put in your name and your credit card info and become a regular monthly donor for 5, 10, $15 a month. It really does go a long way to making us financially sustainable and viable and
00:59:52
Speaker
You know, we have a closing in on 300 people who give us money every month and it really does make a really big difference. Also, if you have any notes or thoughts or comments, things you think I need to hear, you can reach me on Twitter at Duncan Kinney, and you can reach me by email at DuncanK at ProgressAberta.ca. Thanks so much again to Romy for being on the show. Thank you to Cosmic Famicominist for the amazing theme. Thank you for listening and goodbye.