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NFL Week 15 Recap & CFP First Round Preview
70 Plays5 months ago
The Goal Post is back after a great weekend of NFL football.
Damien and Patrick start off by breaking down both Monday Night Football games — The Vikings are the real deal, while the boys have some questions about Caleb Williams, and the Falcons barely scrape by the Raiders.
The boys then go through each game from Week 15 - The Bills grab #1 on the podcast’s non-existent power rankings, the Eagles keep rolling, and the Buccaneers become The Goal Post’s new favourite team. They finish by making their picks for the Week 16 slate - Damien leads +6.
To finish, Damien and Patrick do a full-preview of each game in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Indiana and Notre Dame is ridiculously expensive, SMU is in tough against Penn State, Patrick loves Clemson against Texas, and Damien has a lot of unders on his card.
Enjoy!
Monday Night Football Recap
Vikings vs Bears: 0:00 - 9:47
Falcons vs Raiders: 9:48 - 15:13
Week 15 Recap
Bills vs Lions: 15:14 - 25:25
Eagles vs Steelers: 25:26 - 34:24
Bucs vs Chargers: 34:25 - 39:40
Broncos vs Colts: 39:41 - 45:55
Texans vs Dolphins: 45:56 - 53:02
Quick Hits (The Rest): 53:04 - 1:15:14
Week 16 Picks: 1:15:15 - 1:20:45
CFP 1st Round Preview
Indiana vs Notre Dame: 1:20:46 - 1:32:31
SMU vs Penn State: 1:32:32 - 1:38:34
Clemson vs Texas: 1:38:35 - 1:46:33
Tennessee vs Ohio State: 1:46:34 - 1:55:33
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Transcript
NFL Monday Night Games: Lackluster or Not?
00:00:13
Speaker
Alright, welcome back to another episode of the goalpost. Coming at you after an exciting weekend of NFL football. A not so exciting Monday night slate.
00:00:26
Speaker
we're back to that kind of weird two Monday night games and last night we kind of got the worst of both worlds I would say. Two two games that were barely worth paying attention to.
Why Doesn't NFL Schedule Flex High-Stakes Games?
00:00:39
Speaker
I feel like you said it earlier this year when you have two Monday night games you don't have any Monday night games and that's exactly what we got last night.
00:00:47
Speaker
And it's a real shame, Damien, because we'll we'll get into it. But they the four o'clock slate this past weekend was absolutely loaded. Four out of five games with real playoff implications on the line. And you'd think it would make sense to maybe flex one of those into a Monday night spot.
00:01:03
Speaker
especially when it's tough to keep track of all the games going on. There are all four 25 kicks. The scheduling this week was was a bit of a mess. But yes, the Monday night, the double headers have been a bit of snoozers lately. And at least we're getting some double headers on Saturday, which seemed to be more high stakes games. So hopefully the NFL kind of figures out You know, I'd rather one good game in a prime time spot than two bad games in the prime time spot. So hopefully we can flex some games out in the better games into the prime time spots going forward. Yeah, the NFL couldn't let college football have one big day on the opening of the first ever 12 team playoff way it's going to go. We're going to do NFL first in this episode
Vikings vs. Bears: A Tale of Triumph and Troubles
00:01:44
Speaker
and then.
00:01:44
Speaker
Last half of the episode we're gonna get you ready for the first round of the first ever 12 team college football playoff But we will start in the NFC north with the Vikings 30 Bears 12 Vikings moved to 12 and to hand the Bears their eighth straight loss in They now move into a three way tie with the Lions and the Eagles for the number one seed. They're still third due to conference and division records, um but they're right in the mix with the Lions losing on Sunday. ah This was a game that you knew the Vikings weren't going to let up off the gas pedal whatsoever.
00:02:19
Speaker
ah because the one seed is right there for them. ah The Vikings defense held the Bears without a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter. um You know how we were doing like the the insult stats for the Cowboys you know a few weeks ago? There is just endless insult stats for the Bears right now. It could not get worse. It looks like the entire team is just absolutely punting until next season.
00:02:40
Speaker
You know, I thought it was a bit of like hyperbole exaggeration that that Hail Mary kind of ended their season, but you can't point to that exact moment. That was the last time they had a chance really winning the game. They lost a couple close after that, but they've now lost eight straight games. They mean they started off at four and two. There's plenty of hope for the Bears. The fans were excited. Caleb wasn't even playing great in their four and two. So they thought, you know, playoffs were really in play here.
00:03:07
Speaker
And it's far from that, man. And they got more problems and they have answers right now. Like you said, there's plenty of insult stats. um My one that like that stood out for me aside from losing eight straight games in the NFL, which is really tough to do. It's just like this game specifically, they were one of 12 on third downs. Like that's the one in this game specifically that really jumped off the screen of me. It goes.
00:03:32
Speaker
like How is that possible? And then I don't I think that one fourth down conversion But it was just a lot of you know crucial plays place to extend drives You're putting it in Caleb Williams his hands and he's just not coming through for this team And I think that's kind of been a story of their season so far.
Caleb Williams: Rookie Record vs. Performance Concerns
00:03:48
Speaker
Yeah, it was they didn't convert a third down until 1435 Left in the fourth quarter, which is just a ridiculous that another one they went into halftime scoreless for the third straight week. That one is outrageous to me. um Caleb Williams averaged 0.6 air yards per pass.
00:04:08
Speaker
or per attempt in the first half. ah he was This one was brutal. He's off target on 17% of his throws, which is below his season average of 22%. I think that to me, you know to take anything from this game, that to me is the more concerning thing about Caleb Williams, is not the pocket presence. I think that comes with being an NFL quarterback. The longer, the more games you play, you get a better feel of the pocket. He's just inaccurate right now. like There was a play,
00:04:36
Speaker
Close to the start of the third quarter where he stepped up in the pocket. Keenan Allen had about 10 yards in between him in the closest cornerback and he missed him by about 10 feet in the air going into the end zone would have been an easy touchdown. You know, USC Caleb Williams makes that throw. He's just not accurate right now.
00:04:53
Speaker
bullseye I was going to get into it of that. That was the thing that stuck out to me watching this game. Him and aside from holding on to the ball a little bit too long, it's it's his genuine passing. He seems to overthrow just about every receiver and Bears fans will tell you this is not an insult stat, but I think in a way it is. He's now Caleb has the NFL rookie record streak of 286 straight passes without an interception. He has now gone eight straight games without interception.
00:05:21
Speaker
8 game losing streak. The passes he's throwing are just uncatchable from from receivers to cornerbacks to safeties. Nobody can catch these things because they're 5-10 yards overthrown. I think he had a Roman dunes A1 on a scramble play. Seemed like they were on the same page. Dunes A dunesday gets open for him.
00:05:39
Speaker
And it's just, it's over his head. You can't catch it. I think he had another one on the other side to either Keenan Allen or Dunez, overthrown again. It's just crazy to me how hard he's throwing this ball. He looks exactly like Justin Fields. Like it's just, he's lacking a little bit of touch and everything is coming out as a bullet. When they don't need to be bullets, you need to throw some feel and touch on these passes.
00:06:01
Speaker
and it's just they're not even close dude and it in this is one of those games where at the fourth quarter should they should have thrown Tyson Bajan in for me this was one where you're on primetime television you're against a division rival nothing is going well for you and it's just let's just end this game let's try that's the biggest thing for the Bears to go and you know forward the rest of this season they need to find a way to keep Caleb Williams Engaged somewhat confident because did you see his body language at times on the
Bears' Leadership and Player Behavior
00:06:29
Speaker
bench? He was legitimately lying across the bench in an NFL game I don't know if I've ever seen that from a starting quarterback before that was really bad and It only gets worse cuz like the announcers don't shy away from it Like acheman was probably the perfect person to be calling that game last night He went through a very tough rookie season, you know He gave him the Benford of the doubt and he said, you know Caleb Williams has already been better than I was in in my rookie year but
00:06:54
Speaker
They can identify those things and and it is really weird body language. Thomas Brown looks like he has no idea what he's doing on the sidelines as a head coach. ah It's just all over the place. like it It's a terrible viewing experience and the Bears still have a prime time game left.
00:07:11
Speaker
They finished with Detroit, Seattle, and Green Bay. Just a layup for those three teams who are very desperate all for wins right now in their own sort of playoff races. Detroit for the one seed, Seattle for the division, and Green Bay just to you know keep stacking wins.
Vikings' Rising Potential in the NFC
00:07:25
Speaker
To the Vikings side, because it's tough to keep talking about the Bears, the Vikings I thought looked great last night. Sam Darnold didn't have a great game and they still looked like they dominated from you know touch tip to so the end.
00:07:38
Speaker
ah and was the first time this is a crazy stats me first time they had multiple rushing touchdowns this season acres and Jones got in the end zone that that was bonkers to me but they are rounding into a much better team to me right now Absolutely. This is a team that's been hiding in plain sight, just lurking in the weeds in the NFC for that one seed. All the attentions on Detroit, the Eagles, the Vikings have been there all season long. They have just been, you know, I think people doubt them naturally because Sam Darnold is their starting quarterback. But I think Sam has given us enough sample size where he's gone through. He hit a peak. He had a slight dip, but now he's back to where he needs to be to get this team, not only into the playoffs,
00:08:22
Speaker
But competing for the one seed, a Super Bowl contender, i like there's no reason to doubt the Vikings. Because week after week, they continue to win games. Like I said, it wasn't perfect from Darnold, but the other stars on this team showed up. Aaron Jones had a great game on the ground, 86 yards and a touchdown. Justin Jefferson could have had two touchdown passes, dropped the one. you know this This game could have been a bigger win than it was.
00:08:45
Speaker
And then just the complimentary pieces like Jordan Addison's really stepped up this year. TJ Hawkinson's finally healthy. And like you said, like Cam Akers, not a bad backup running back. He got a score. So it feels like the Vikings are just operating on a high level and they have been really all season long, but people for some reason still aren't giving them enough credit. And I think, I think Damien, if, if we're, you know, we were a Cardinals pod to start this year,
00:09:11
Speaker
They're not dead, but things aren't looking great for them. I think we might have to pivot to the Vikings as a possible NFC underdog team to root for going forward. I have another one for you later in this episode, so we'll keep that in mind. um Yeah, the one thing the benefit of the doubt I give to the Vikings is that they're extremely well coached. Like you can very much lean on that being a positive for them that they won't make the big mistake going down the line here is that they have great coaching.
00:09:36
Speaker
kevin o'connell looks like he has a complete command over that room um and you know whether you want to Moving on to the Falcons 15 Raiders 9. This was a weird, weird game. In around the third late third quarter Orlovsky said, um you know, they are playing this game with fearful play calling in the second half.
00:10:07
Speaker
The Falcons were so, so worried about turning the ball over and giving this game away, which to me really signals what, you know, this team thinks that they are right now. They know that this is not a good football team. And when you're scratching and clawing to beat the Raiders, like this one came down to the final two plays where Desmond Ritter was able to hook up like half-helm area attempts into the end zone.
00:10:30
Speaker
um It's not a great sign for your football team. Cousins finally threw a touchdown pass, broke a streak of 151 attempts without a touchdown. That was his first touchdown since November 3rd against the Cowboys. We are recording on December 17th right now. um Raheem Morris said he has to play better. Cousins agreed.
00:10:50
Speaker
They still stay a game behind the box, but I don't have faith that they're going to catch them. No, absolutely neither team deserve to win that game on Monday night. It was just kind of pathetic on both sides. Like Kirk ends up with 11 completions for 112 yards, a touchdown. And of course he adds an and interception in there. It's nothing look good. Like Darnell Mooney ended up without a catch. That's your number two receiver, your deep threat. And you're not getting him involved in the game, because like you said,
00:11:19
Speaker
I think they're just scared to turn the ball over and you can win this way I guess is it's kind of like a vintage Steelers with Kenny Pickett version of winning like you're leaning on your running back Bijon Robinson 125 yards on the ground all G are coming up with 43 as well so they were able to run the ball.
00:11:39
Speaker
in this game and that's the that's the most thing I'm taking away from their offense is they still do have a solid ground game but they got to figure out this quarterback situation and just get this offense humming to where it was in the first five games of the season they were one of those teams that you know the first week against the seos it wasn't pretty but kirk's coming off a pretty bad injury it'll only get better from there and it was remember like they beat the eagles like they have some big wins early on in the season And now this team just looks like a shell of what they once were. I mean, I guess they've snapped the four game losing streak as well. So you can take some positives and maybe getting a win. Seeing one go through the hoop could be enough to change this team around because, you know, they're a game behind, but they obviously have the tiebreaker over the box.
00:12:22
Speaker
But if you keep putting efforts out like this, you you got lucky because you played the Raiders who are tanking pretty much. They don't want to win games. Desmond Ritter is their starting quarterback and their lead rusher in this game. You're not going to beat more than three teams in the NFL with an effort that you put out there on Monday night. Like, remember that Chiefs game? I think Kirk threw for over 500 yards, like was dicing the Chiefs defense that has looked incredible this season. that This team is just such a far cry from that game.
00:12:50
Speaker
which is really weird to see the NFC South raised the box have an 82% playoff chance and 80% division chance. The Falcons sit at 29% for the playoffs, 20% for the division. The Bucks go at Dallas versus Carolina versus the Saints and the Falcons go versus New York, the Giants at Washington versus Carolina. So they have to pretty much win out. I would say that the the big one is that Washington game. They can't really afford to drop that Washington game. Um, cause then the Bucks know that they just have to beat the saints and they're in.
00:13:25
Speaker
and win the division, um which would look great because like that was the my big call and in the preseason. Actually, no, I was thinking about it earlier. I said the Jets were going to win the AFC East, which is not aged well. But I think that Patrick, I think the Bucks have to be our team now because we talked about it earlier after that Chiefs loss. This team is scrappy. They win. You know, they they they consistently put out the same effort regardless of who's in the lineup. And there to me,
00:13:53
Speaker
dates mirror the scrappy NFC team that we get behind. I'm in. I'm in on that. You're right. Those are the two teams. You can maybe throw the Rams in there cause they're making a late season push and you know, yeah it's easy to for me to get behind a team that's making a late season push and getting hot at the right time. But we have been high on the box all year. The Falcons have kind of been up and down and just honestly, an annoying team to talk about cause I don't know what they are. And and now we're getting the,
00:14:20
Speaker
We're getting the real Michael Pennick sideline shots, getting the full juice and fields treatment with his helmet on. Raheem Morris is now addressing, like you mentioned, in the media. Kirk Cousins has to play better.
00:14:31
Speaker
So we might have some quarterback controversy coming down the stretch for Atlanta, ah especially if they some. I don't expect them to drop a game to the Giants, but if that game is even close at halftime, maybe they're losing at half. We could see some Michael Panek's action before the season is over. I was listening to sports talk radio on the weekend and they were already talking about landing spots for Kirk Cousins next year. Like somebody brought up the 49ers like it's to me, things are trending in the direction of them like cutting cutting ties with him after this season. If these last three games don't go well, I think it's only going to get worse in that respect and push it closer to that. um But great point about this team being annoying to talk about, so we won't anymore. We will go to what was the best game of the weekend. Bills 48, Lions 42, absolute barn burner.
00:15:24
Speaker
which ends with the Bills taking down their second number one seed this season. They took down the Chiefs a few weeks ago and now they have taken down the Lions, taking into account everything we know and where each team currently stands, Patrick. Do you think that Buffalo is our new number one in our non-existent power rankings?
00:15:45
Speaker
I lean, yes, because they have beaten their two best opponents. They had the bad loss to Baltimore earlier in the season, but that was so early on in the season where you can almost throw it out, similar to how the, you know, the Eagles lost the Falcons. Like we mentioned, the Bucks beat the Lions. Those kind of games are anomalies here. And I think you're seeing the best teams start to win the most important games down the stretch. ah Josh Allen ah has absolutely put, you know, his state put his stamp on the MVP race here. He's just you know another two touchdowns throwing, two touchdowns rushing, 68 yards on the ground, 362 in the air. There's not much more more debate to be had, especially because he is winning the big games. Buffalo has their eyes set on the one seed, still needs some things to happen with Kansas City, but they're putting themselves in a spot where they they can compete. So if you lose to the Lions,
00:16:41
Speaker
Chances are you're probably out of ah contention for the one seed. And now that they keep winning these games, they're they're absolutely a force. And i they are now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl as well at plus 400. So they not only are, you know, probably number one in our non-existent power rankings, they are the favorites in the betting market to win the Super Bowl. Yeah, they they're now eleven and three. They've won eight of their last nine. They hold tiebreakers over both the Chiefs and the Steelers right now.
00:17:08
Speaker
They finished with Pat's Jets, Pat's, which is just a dream for an AFC team right now. Casey's got to go versus the Texans at the Steelers at the Broncos. So it's right there, especially with what happened to Patrick Mahomes, which we'll get to in a bit.
00:17:26
Speaker
um But the one seed is right there for the taking um they have given up 40 plus for two weeks in a row But this is a Lions team that has one of the best offenses in the league and a Rams team last week That's really rounding into form. I feel like when the bills When this bills team starts hot, you know, they're not gonna cool off in terms of like game flow They went up immediately 14 nothing start and I feel like that you you know that they are not going to randomly get stopped or hit a wall. I think that's the most consistent thing about this Bills team is that the the offense doesn't seem to ever get any hiccups in any games.
00:18:04
Speaker
and they're getting different guys to step up every single game. Obviously, we had James Cook dominate on the ground in this game with 105 rushing yards and a touchdown. But the third string running back was wide receiver number one in this game. Five receptions, 114 yards for Ty Johnson. ah Just an unbelievable like.
00:18:21
Speaker
You don't expect that out of a third string running back. And you need that in the biggest games of the year, because not everyone's going to stay healthy coming down the stretch. I'm sure there will be some injuries. Not everyone is operating at 100 percent in the NFL um going into week 16. So you need these guys to step up, take some pressure off, you know, a James Cook. keep ray davis fresh if you need him down the stretch but it's this is an impressive effort from the bills and now they've snapped detroit who we had that's like the number one team might not be touched they were favored in this game at home snapped an 11 game winning streak
00:18:56
Speaker
The bills have basically, you know, taken away any question whether that step on digs trade was worth it or not. Not. I'm sure that there was much discussion anyway, but that's sometimes like everyone seems to be buying in. No one is you know screaming that this is my ball. I need to get 10 targets a game for us to win. Everyone seems to have bought in on this offense, especially, and they're spreading the ball around and they're basically just letting Josh Allen, their number one offensive player, take them to where they need to be. Yeah, the vibes are just so much better of this team. I think any Bills fan would tell you that ah that the vibes around this team, the general feeling is so much better.
00:19:34
Speaker
on the lines perspective very slow start for them ah that you don't see that too often um and it brings up an important perspective like the lines don't play from behind very often i think that we saw that in this game where You weren't really used to seeing them come from behind. They obviously did put up a ton of points on the board. But when you are playing from behind, it leads to crazy decisions from Dan Campbell like the onside kick. I was speechless, I would say, when I saw
00:20:06
Speaker
them line up for that onside kick is about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. They're down 10. Dan Campbell after the game says once he saw how Mac Hollins return that he immediately regretted doing it, which to me is not a great quote from your head coach, like especially with seeing what was that Cowboys ah commanders game a couple of weeks ago in week 11 when they returned in onside kick with these new rules that you just you can't catch a team by surprise with it.
00:20:34
Speaker
And it's almost easier for a team to just pick it up and find a seam and run it back. So that that was a head scratching decision. Having to announce the onside kick has kind of ruined this league because I don't think it would have been the craziest play in the world if they like did a sneaky one similar to Sean Payton. And, you know, to start off the second half in the Super Bowl against the Colts, surprise onside kicks were a huge part to me in in football. catching a team off guard, trying to swing momentum in your favor. Now that's all gone. So the fact that you have to announce that you're doing an onside kick and you're only down 10 points. And like you said, they don't play from behind often. So I think this was a bit of a panic play from Dan Campbell. And this is what you know the talking heads are discussing with Dan Campbell. These are the issues about the aggressiveness that he shows in his coaching style.
00:21:25
Speaker
Yeah, you can go for it on fourth down with the lead and you can trust your guys. But to get this desperate, I can't tell if it's more of an insult to his defense or, you know, a tip of the cap to the Bills offense. I struggle between the two because I know they have had a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The Bills were going up and down the field the entire game. So in a way,
00:21:45
Speaker
It kind of seemed like you know Dan Campbell was conceding to the Bills offense in a way and just saying, hey, you guys are probably going to go score no matter what. So we might as well give you a short field, try and hold you to a field goal. It obviously did not work out. Mack Hollins takes it back inside the 10. They get a touchdown in that 10 point lead when you had a little bit of momentum going at home and you kick it off and maybe you get a stop, get the ball back with way more than half the fourth quarter to play.
00:22:14
Speaker
you just lose ah all the momentum that you gained and it's I show because it seems like Dan Campbell he coaches like it's any game like he doesn't seem to change his coaching style no matter the stakes of the game like I think he may have done that in in a preseason game in the Super Bowl he just is himself but I think this is it could be a problem I've finally entered that that boat where it's like yeah this is pure recklessness. There's a difference between being reckless and being aggressive. And I think that onside kick was reckless in this situation. Yeah. And it was even weirder because they did get to stop later in the fourth quarter. Like when they scored that last touchdown to go to 42, it was because they had stopped the bills and made them punt the ball. So stopping them was possible. We saw that happen.
00:23:03
Speaker
I don't really get, you know, conceding at that point in the game. They also lose David Montgomery in this one, tore his MCL, he got season-ending surgery, so now Jameer Gibbs is going to be the lead back. ah They lost to Lee McNeil, they lost Carlton Davis, Khalil Dorsey, like snapped his leg in the middle of this game. Just, it's starting to get to that point where it feels like they have too many injuries to really overcome it.
00:23:29
Speaker
you You know, Dan Campbell does that radio hit when he goes, you know, you forget what it was like when you were eating moldy bread and it and it was exactly what it you needed. This is exactly what we needed to turn this around. It's very good speech, but I'm starting to get the feeling that especially if they don't get the one seed and then they have to go play on the road in a very deep NFC with a banged up lineup, they need the benefit of that rest from a first round by.
00:23:54
Speaker
Yeah man, there might be spots on the practice squad for you and I with how many injuries they've had and I do think there's something to be said with peaking a little too early. I think the Lions peaked a little bit too early. I think they may have shown their best stuff. i You know, Aiden Hutchinson, that injury so early in the year, took a little bit of wind out of their sail, but they kept winning games. Then the Anzaloni injury, then it's just, they keep adding up where, you know, your luck, not luck, but like your good fortune, I guess I would say, will run out at some point. And now, like you said, you know, it's obviously way better than when they were a three-win team. there It's all perspective.
00:24:32
Speaker
But I think now the expectation is Super Bowl or bust in Detroit, whether, you know, they deserve that credit or not from where they once were. But that is the fact of the matter. And like, I don't know, it's let's see how tough this team is and let's see if they can bounce back from a pretty demoralizing loss, I would say, with a lot of questioning about the coaching. Now some questions. We'll just see how the locker room bounces back. ah Like it's not because they did play so well on offense in Jared Goff.
00:24:59
Speaker
you know He wins a game earlier in the year with five interceptions. He now loses a game with five touchdown passes. So you can take some good things away offensively, but the Detroit Lions defense with all the injuries they've had. And now, like you said, a huge one on ah offense with David Montgomery. It's going to be very interesting to see you know just how much ah this team can show. And I think i think they will. I think it's a tough team that will take on their the identity of their coach going forward.
00:25:24
Speaker
Yeah, that's well put. Speaking of a team that has not peaked too early and I would say is peaking right at the right time. Eagles 27 Steelers 13 in the most classic Eagles fashion possible this year. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown bounce back with an incredible game after a whole media frenzy throughout the week about the two of them. They give Philly a franchise beth best best 10th win in a row.
00:25:52
Speaker
Steelers haven't won in Philadelphia since 1965 and Patrick I want to start actually with the Steelers in this one because I thought that this was a game just kind of riddled with Steelers mistakes I feel like they didn't get the benefit of the doubt from the refing in this game a lot um But this was one where the Steelers seem to shoot themselves in the foot quite often in this game Was that the read you got as well? Of course, uh, you know Philly goes down early. They get a field goal Steelers stall out Then they start getting some turnovers really early in this game in the first quarter and the Eagles were clearly the better team offensively They know what the Steelers couldn't get anything going on their offense
00:26:31
Speaker
So they had to they didn't really do anything with those two crucial turnovers to start the game. And to me, that kind of was the game. If you were able to and they turned it to turnovers, they got three points off of if you managed to get 10 somehow get 14. This game looks a lot different, not saying that they would have won.
00:26:49
Speaker
But they would have been in the game, could have quieted the crowd a little bit. But Philly, man, it's a tough physical team. ah George Pickens being out was it shows its face every week. And you know, you're not playing the Browns anymore. You're playing a good team that will understand how to continue to shut it down throughout the entire game. ah They couldn't really get the running game going. And it just like the Eagles were the better team in this one.
00:27:13
Speaker
Yeah, and like the some of the officiating calls weren't great, but I don't think that truly would have had any real impact on this game. Maybe a little bit of window dressing, maybe they would have lost by a touchdown instead of two, but the the Eagles were dominant in this game. and I think it's a ah tip your cap to them because obviously, you know you mentioned the AJ Brown, Jalen Hurts,
00:27:35
Speaker
To me, that's just classic wide receiver, one diva status, not getting the ball enough one or two weeks. Yeah. They go to the media. This happens in five, six, seven, eight different teams a year. It's like one, one guy's not happy and he's had enough. He's going to let the media hear it. The people kind of ran out of stuff to talk about. So this was a massive storyline.
00:27:56
Speaker
But the philly eat Philadelphia Eagles can beat you in more ways than one. Steelers committed to stopping Saquon Barkley, which they did, held them to 65 yards. But they beat them through the air. Jalen Hurts had 290 yards, two touchdowns in the air, a tush push touchdown as well, and then AJ Brown, touchdown, Devontae Smith, touchdown, both over 100 yards. So they they were just throwing the ball all over the yard on the Steelers. And they were the better team, basically, from start to finish. Yeah, you mentioned the lack of pickings. I feel like this game,
00:28:25
Speaker
was it was so stark to see because one team was leaning on their wide receiver one while the other one was like dying or desperate to have theirs back. AJ Brown was like unstoppable in this game. Every time you looked up at the screen, he was making either a big first down or a big catch. ah The Steelers secondary was struggling hard with covering him. And that's who AJ Brown is at his best. He is a top five receiver in this league when he plays at that level.
00:28:54
Speaker
And I think that, you know speaking of peaking, if the Eagles can play like this, and and you mentioned them being able to win in a number of different ways, If teams sell out to to beat Saquon Barkley and to stop Saquon Barkley, especially in the playoffs, they can just kill you through the air. That's exactly what happened in this one. Davante Smith, amazing in this game as well. ah And I think that, you know, they're doing a better job at silencing the noise. Like there was Sirianni was like maybe fighting with the defensive line coach and
00:29:25
Speaker
defensive line coach just kind of made him stay back and not you know yell at Jalen Carter. ah It just seems like they're kind of rounding into form as a much more balanced team here, a team that doesn't get rattled by this stuff nearly as hard as it did early in the season. What did you think about the Tomlin punt? because The Surrender Index account on Twitter said with a surrender index of 16.53, this punt ranks at the 98th percentile of cowardly punts in the 2024 season and the 95th percentile of all punts since 1999. That was when Tomlin decided to punt it from the Philadelphia 46 on 4th and 7 with 10 minutes remaining in the 4th.
00:30:06
Speaker
They did not get the ball back. It was a 10 minute and 37 second drive and it ended the game. Well, first off, I mean, Jalen Carter punched the guy in the face before that ball was in the air. Apparently, it happened after replay. They said it happened after the punt was in the air. So the Steelers, you know, it was a good punt because they should have got the first down. But no, it's it's classic Mike Tallman. Good, bad, or ugly, it is what it is. This is Mike Tallman. Steelers are one of the few teams in the NFL that can consider their punt in special teams unit part of their offensive game play.
00:30:43
Speaker
it's not pretty but they used they popped one out from cooper de jean earlier in the year and earlier in this game off a punt it's always been part of the stealers lifestyle it's always been part of their mindset it's not pretty and i don't expect anyone else to understand it but i saw coming because guess what at the end of the day This game kind of means not the only negative is it basically takes the Steelers out of contention for the one seed in the AFC. Don't think they were really ever going to get it. All that matters is next week against Baltimore. You win that game, you win the division and it's all, it's all good. So I do think in a way Mike Toma was kind of surrendering this game because it was so obvious to me that this offense wasn't capable of getting anything done. And once again, Damien,
00:31:27
Speaker
fifth rounder for Mike Williams at the deadline and I'm not seeing him out there and you know what I'm not expecting it to be the exact same as without George Pickens but that's the same type of receiver that George Pickens is and you can just put him in that spot you can still run deep ball Russ can still throw his moon balls to him like the offense shouldn't really be as like the difference between the two with and without George Pickens is insane to me and it just shouldn't look that way especially when the Eagles are just beating them with like slants and just it looks so easy for Philly and it looked insanely hard for Pittsburgh and that was kind of the difference in this game is the Philly was just so much better and they were just operating at a higher level than the Steelers were.
00:32:09
Speaker
I had that written down. I said thinking back to the trade deadline, Pittsburgh would look great with a better receiver right now. I think that in this game they were. If you have, you know, I think Tyler Lockett was high up on your list. I think you had a few other guys. ri Slayton was on their possible Jacoby Myers like yeah, some skilled wide receiver twos. Yeah, if they were in this game, I think it would have been extremely noticeable and I still think they're lacking that ah that option and I think it feeds into the fact that Russ has both somehow a high ceiling and an extremely low floor. Like it is, it is bad when his floor is at that point because he goes 14 for 22, 128 yards in a touchdown. And he either looks like a world beater, a dominator,
00:32:56
Speaker
or he looks like a a fucking fourth string quarterback like there seems to be no in between here and he looks so small sometimes when he gets sacked earlier in that game it was just they're batting the ball down at the line Russ is getting sacked eat The perfect quarterback for the Steelers is a mix of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. But in in games like this, man, I'm not lying to you. I don't think the Steelers win the game, but the offense would have looked better with Justin Fields in that game, especially when you're not throwing the ball. They are. You need an extra dimension with his legs. He came in for one play and then he got it. I thought it was a concussion, but they called it an abdomen injury. So.
00:33:35
Speaker
That's something to keep an eye on with a a short week to two short weeks coming up for the Steelers ah But like that's what I'm you need an added Element in the offensive game when George Pickens isn't there and I think they were good Learning that and putting fields in way earlier than usual not in a red zone package But then, unfortunately, he got injured. But I think they're catching on that when Russ isn't able to like sling the ball as much as he is, you need to bring in another element. And Justin Fields will be seeing continued playing time down the stretch here. Yeah, big one next week. I think it helps if Fields is back for that game against the Ravens, I think.
00:34:11
Speaker
that that game is just going to be huge. ah you know Like you said, it it will decide the division. um And it's tough to beat a team twice, even though you do have Baltimore's number. ah Really, really interested to see how that game goes. um But moving on to our Buccaneers, 40,
00:34:30
Speaker
versus the Chargers 17 this was an absolute statement game from the Bucks and they have now beaten the Lions the Eagles and dropped 40 on this Chargers defense this was a weird game because the Chargers were in the driver's seat early in this game they you know the Bucks go down didn't opening drive TD Herbert responds opening drive TD for them They then pick off Baker, convert it to another touchdown. They recover Rashad White's fumble. They go up 17 to 13 at half. And then they didn't score a point after that. The second half, Mike Evans flipped this game on that on its head with that touchdown. Incredible scramble from Baker. That was like one of the best moves I've seen from him this year. And his second touchdown to Mike Evans was an even better throw. They intercept Herbert.
00:35:19
Speaker
um Richard White was incredible in the second half he gets that late TD and it was just over pretty much after that Mike Evans touchdown and this Chargers team man they're kind of on the outside looking in right now they're still at an 89% chance to make the playoffs due to how kind of weak the lower half of the AFC is, but I'm thinking more like playoffs. I think teams are probably like licking their lips in the AFC to get a crack at the Chargers in the first round. Yeah, if George Pickens is healthy,
00:35:50
Speaker
Like I think the Steelers without George Pickens they're a team that you would want to play in the playoffs But I think other than that it the Chargers are the team everyone wants to play in the playoffs because it seems like the Texans They're not great, but they're kind of figuring some things out there like a team that has playoff experience this Chargers team without JK Dobbins Doesn't have much going for them. They can't run the ball without them They thought, in and it looked earlier in the year, like they were going to run a little bit of a tandem with ah jo Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Well, now that Gus Edwards has to step up and take on the lead role, he really hasn't been able to get anything going, Damian. A crucial part of any John Harbaugh offense is, or sorry, Jim Harbaugh offense,
00:36:32
Speaker
is the running game, the play action game, and just getting things to open up in that fashion. Because early in the year, remember, like Justin Herbert wasn't throwing the ball a ton. He would go out of games like 17 completions, but then Gus Edwards would have 50 yards on the ground and a touchdown, Jake and Dom himself like 75, 80, and a touchdown, and they were beating teams with their defense. Well, their defense looked atrocious today as well. Gave up 30 unanswered points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who made the correct halftime adjustments,
00:36:59
Speaker
And Todd Bowles and Baker and Mike Evans and the two running backs, they're fighting, man. And that's why like ah you're right. This is going to be our team going forward is they're frisky. They're getting hot at the right time. And I think when they're at their best, they can come out of the NFC. They've beaten the two best teams in there that they ripped off another win over an AFC playoff team. There's nothing that this team has shown me that they can't come out of the NFC when they're playing at their best.
00:37:27
Speaker
Yeah, and they lose to a Chiefs team in overtime when they were down their two best receivers. They've learned to play pretty much the same game plan, regardless of who is in the lineup this year. And I think that's going to be a huge plus going into the NFC playoffs here, which is a deep, deep playoff race. And I think that you know opposite of the Chargers, a team that AFC teams would want to play in the playoffs,
00:37:50
Speaker
No one wants to play the Bucks in the playoffs. And, you know, they keep their lead on Atlanta. They don't slip up. They now have three pretty easy games to finish off, polish things off in this offense. And yeah, they're rolling towards the playoffs. Mike Evans is somehow probably going to pull another thousand yard season out of his ass. ah He's now at 749 needs 251 over the next three games to secure his 11th straight thousand yard campaign. That is all 11 years of his career.
00:38:20
Speaker
which is it's just insane to say it's so impressive so impressive like he missed he missed a handful of games this year too it kind of looked in jeopardy ah and ah at parts sorry and but you know you rip off 159 yards in this one he basically needs to average I think just over 80 yards a game going forward So that's pretty much 100 yard game and then two you know mediocre games for Mike at like 60 yards. So you got to think he's going to get it. And the only thing to me that would maybe stop him from getting it is if the box clinch by week 18, they clinched the division. They can't move up or down.
00:38:56
Speaker
so maybe they get him healthy but he seems to be pretty healthy out there tonight or sorry last week um it's something that they i think they i think they're gonna try and get it to him even if they clinch maybe just play him in the first half feed him the ball a lot uh but even baker first time he's ever had 30 touchdown passes in a year now he's at 32 uh just continuing to prove all his doubters wrong especially those Cleveland Browns who can't figure out their quarterback situation. ah But no, this Bucks team is hot. And I think this Chargers team, they got to figure some things out. I think they will make the playoffs. I think they're going to be the seven seed. But that's a team that you would love to play them in. And like, no matter what team you are in the FC, that's a team you really want to play in the first round.
00:39:39
Speaker
very true and a team you don't want to play in the first round is the Denver Broncos Broncos 31 Colts 13 remember do you remember how we talked ah about the Broncos to start the season man they were what was it one in four or or they had lost four of five or it's somewhere in the stretch there and we were like you know what Broncos fans like just focus on bonyx being good this year focus on you know taking positives out of that well they've thrown all that out the window this is a playoff team this is a team that just refuses to lose games right now similar to the Chargers the Colts started this game in the driver's seat they were up ten nothing Nick's had two interceptions pretty much in the first two quarters he threw his second one very early in the third quarter ah but then he turns around rips three touchdown passes goes to
00:40:30
Speaker
20 for 33, like this was an off game for Bo Nicks, and they still won by almost 20 points. Now I know a lot of that was the Colts kind of shooting themselves in the own in their own foot, but the Broncos just went out and they find ways to win games. So what Bo Nicks showed from me showed to me in this game is the opposite of what Caleb Williams showed on Monday night. A guy who went things our goal is going wrong. you know He's throwing some interceptions. They're losing the football game.
00:41:00
Speaker
he finds a way to don't brush it off keep going he's confident keeps throwing the ball and he ends he walks out there with three touchdowns still three interceptions but that's a guy who's not rattled by much i know he's a lot older than caleb williams and he's coming in the league basically you have to be pro ready at that age when you're coming out of college But he's he's good, man. And he's confident and quarterback. And, you know, they're finding ways to win games when it's the first half. I thought it was over. This one seemed to me like the Colts caught the Broncos in a nice spot, both of them coming off a bye. The Colts are going to come in there and win a tough, gritty, you know, under game and you know keep their playoff hopes alive and put pressure on the Chargers and the Broncos going down the stretch.
00:41:45
Speaker
Well, the second half happened. Jonathan Taylor got a little trigger happy going to the goal line and that play. I was listening to PTI last night. They said this wasn't the reason the Colts lost the game. I think this is the exact moment you can pinpoint that swung the game in the Broncos favor. So maybe it didn't, I guess, you know, directly lead to a win. But that was the point of the game where all the momentum shifted in Denver's favor. Bonex turned it around.
00:42:12
Speaker
And now the the Broncos get out of there with a statement when out of nowhere, when you thought they were going to lose the game without having a running game every week. It blows my mind. Bo Nicks leading rusher. Uh, but they're finding ways to win games. And like you said, the Broncos are going to be a tough out in the playoffs, especially. I don't think, no, they can't get a home game. I got ahead of myself. I forgot. I forgot the chiefs run their division there for a second, but yeah, the Broncos are going to be a tough out in the playoffs. Yeah. And I think that.
00:42:40
Speaker
You know, and they got an interception off Nick Nick's after Taylor dropped out at the goal line. So I think that's why they say that. But when you looked at at how this game flow went, they needed another seven points there. It was the points that matter. Like if they were up 21 to seven, that's a much, much different ball game.
00:43:00
Speaker
Yeah, going up two scores in a game like that, when Broncos had to get two touchdowns, not like a two field goals or a field goal and a touchdown, they needed two touchdowns to come back from that lead ah in the second half, by the way. It wasn't a first quarter play. This is in the second half where the game's slowly going to slip away from you when you're down two scores. There's more pressure. They're on the road or no, no, Denver was at home. Sorry. And yeah, it was just.
00:43:25
Speaker
I can't believe that Jonathan Taylor of all people is the one making that mistake seems like an Anthony Richardson kind of play but he ripped off a nice rushing touchdown early in the game to kind of get the Colts out of the gate That's when I was like, oh my God, the Colts are coming out fiery. We're going to get at one of those great Anthony Richardson games. it was yeah ah it was classic It was a classic Anthony Richardson game, two interceptions, a massive rushing touchdown, a below 50 percent completion percentage. But to me, this was a team that in the Denver Broncos that are a playoff team and a team with the Colts where they're not a complete team. And I don't think they belong in the playoffs. And, you know, it's I guess they're not. They're so dead.
00:44:07
Speaker
I just there's a weird vibe around this team and Adonai Mitchell in the post game He throws that pick six and then he's like, I don't think I did anything wrong there Like I it was so weird, dude that And then somebody mentioned the playoffs and he like started laughing like it it was so odd, dude That's what I was saying before we're like Shane Steichen and him, you know bouncing back and forth between quarterbacks and put seeds of doubt in your locker room and i think you know adam i mitchell's comments there may reflect that
00:44:39
Speaker
maybe not maybe i'm you know looking too hard into a situation where there's nothing there but i think the colt still i don't think they have their quarterback situation figured out yet i'm i'm not high on anthony richardson i'm not i'm not saying he's done and can't you know, last in this league. Cause he is still young, like he's, he's younger than bone egg. He's younger than a lot of these quarterbacks that are, you know, in their first two, three seasons, but he hasn't shown consistency and I think consistency is important for a quarterback. Even just improvement. He really hasn't shown that he's continuing to get better. And I think that's a sign for worry for the c Colts. Yeah. It's a interesting next week.
00:45:21
Speaker
ah denver's currently matched up with pittsburgh if the playoff started today ah they now and the seven year string of losing records they get back into the playoffs if they do i that would end industry since twenty sixteen and they go to l la to play the chargers next week which is a very interesting match for other AFC playoff teams to kind of get a vibe check of where these two teams are like if the Broncos go and blow out the Chargers next week Then you really really know who you want to play in the playoffs if you're one of those top AFC teams um moving to our last game preview here Texans 20 Dolphins 12 the Dolphins are deader than dead 5% chance to make the playoffs now that was it they had to win that game and
00:46:10
Speaker
And it's tough, man. That was a frustrating, frustrating watch ah for somebody who's watched every Dolphins game this year. um Mike McDaniel loses to another team with a winning record. I think he is now three and 15 at the helm in that respect. They need a full organizational rehaul. You gotta fire Chris gear Greer. I think it starts with that. I think I can deal with Mike McDaniel being the coach of this team because I think NFL coaches can grow. I don't think that Mike McDaniel is a guy who is against like or or who is you know against growing or against learning. I think that the longer that he is a head coach, the better he will get at it. But I think he needs to be relieved of maybe play calling duties. You need to bring in somebody at OC who has a good history of play calling, because I think he's just he's thinking of too much and he doesn't seem to have a real grasp on the game flow.
00:47:04
Speaker
There was about a million screen passes in this game, like it's the same mistakes that seem to be kind of plaguing them. It was a frustrating time for Tua to have a bad game. Granted, he was without two starting tackles.
00:47:17
Speaker
waddle going out didn't help either then you lose grant you woes uh and that was a bad ball to him i think even he recognized that very good news out of the hospital with him it was very scary they weren't mentioning you know how they always mention like he has movement in his extremities especially after a bad hit like that like they didn't say that for like a day Yeah, it was radio silence pretty much on on that front. And it was it was quite a scary scene. You know, took a while, got him off there on a stretcher. It was like they took his pads off as well. That was to me a very concerning sign, because even like a Tamar Hamlin situation, they didn't take any sort of equipment off of them, maybe aside from his helmet. But yeah, this was an ugly game for the Miami Dolphins in a must win situation.
00:48:04
Speaker
To me, I kind of see the McDaniel situation a little differently where I think he is just a coordinator. i don't I don't necessarily think he's like a head coach where that guy's gonna... To me, I think a head coach has to find a way to command respect from grown men making millions of dollars. I don't necessarily see Mike McDaniel in that role. I think he's a bit of a creative genius in the offensive schemes that he can uh come up with they didn't show you know in this game but when the dolphins are rolling and that offense is hot yes there's the argument that hey they only do it against bad teams but i don't know man i there's something about this dolphin's team that i can't figure out and i don't know if you can but it's
00:48:47
Speaker
It's like the defense isn't great, but the defense kind of kept them in this game, only gave up 20 points in the second half. Exactly. Like they did everything they had to do to keep the Dolphins offense in range. And even to the end of the game, like you're only down eight points. It's still one score game, but the Dolphins couldn't get figure anything out. And I thought that touchdown to Johnny Smith in the third quarter, maybe that kick started something, right? Maybe they get in a flow, but they just never got in the flow. And this Dolphins offense is built around flow and quick and tempo.
00:49:17
Speaker
I don't know if I'm overreacting, but they don't really have a run game. I know. I don't think at a chain's a bad running back, but they don't really have a running game. And I think you need a running game. So I think that's something they could look to implement in their game plans going forward. But yeah, it was an ugly game from the Dolphins. And like you said, a must win situation for them. Yeah, it's frustrating because, you know, the defense, which still is missing a lot of big pieces, Bradley Chubb, Jalen Phillips, like They balled out for the second half. They kept giving the offense chances to it throws a red zone interception. The defense gets a big stop only for him to throw another interception. I would have loved Tyree kill to come up with that ball. I was practically in his hands, but it's an under thrown ball like you can't really put that on the receiver and you're right. The lack of a running attack and it's more that the running game is predictable more than anything. It's it's when it's at its best when teams can't stop it. It looks great.
00:50:12
Speaker
But when it's predictable and it's pitch plays or it's running off tackle, teams know how to kind of get in the way and stop that. like it's It's a tough spot to be in with this team. like Just give me Ash and Genty. Maybe that'll fix everything. give it If we're drafting like 12th overall, 13th overall, give me Ash and Genty. Maybe that'll fix everything. um But yeah, I think it starts from the top up. yeah we You got to kind of clean house. And I think you still stick, you know, you sign to it, you sign McDaniel already. I think your beds are made in that respect. But what you can control is getting rid of Chris Greer and kind of just doing an organizational reset there. um My final thought from this game, whoever lands the five seed is going to kill this Texans team. That is what I gain from this. I feel like I'm just adding like ah I'm being spited by these teams. Like I hate the Packers now. The Texans are pissing me off.
00:51:05
Speaker
ah it's ah What I saw from this Texan's team is that they are not built to win a playoff game more than anything. Yeah, when this game was Nico Collins. It was just all Nico Collins. And if if it wasn't for Nico Collins, they probably don't win this game because Joe Mixon couldn't get anything going on the ground. CJ Stroud only comes out of there with 131 yards passing. Pretty much almost almost all of them to to Nico Collins, who comes away with two touchdowns in that game.
00:51:32
Speaker
Well, like it was just it was just an ugly performance from both teams in this game Where I kind of thought maybe we get a little bit of a shootout action both teams in the 20s battling it out But yeah, I mean this Texans team has a gift of a division They clinched the AFC South gonna be in the four seed like you said with the home playoff game But you're gonna be in a dome ah The Houston Texans fan base isn't, you know, like right crazy, it not one of like those top 10 fan bases that you think of of like tough places to play. So you might even be able to get a quarter of the stadium filled with your road fans. Yeah, the the Houston Texans would be probably
00:52:12
Speaker
No, it's the most favorable matchup if you have to go on the road and play one team because it's either going to be the Chiefs, the Bills, Steelers or Ravens, hopefully a healthy Steelers team and then the Texans. And I think I would take the dome against the team that's struggling offensively.
00:52:28
Speaker
Defense was good. Like Derek Stingley, I think people are beginning to put a lot more respect on his name. Soss Gardner is finally like, the they they got over the hype of a cool name at the cornerback position. They're starting to realize that Derek Stingley is One of the best, if not the best corners up there with Sir Tan, like it's just so impressive to watch. He comes comes away with two interceptions, but the Texans are now built defensively where last year it was just all offense. So we'll see. Maybe that can keep them in games in the playoffs. But yeah, if you have to go on the road, the Texans are the team that you would want to go to. Very true. Onto the quick hit section here of which there were a lot. There were a lot of bad games this week.
00:53:09
Speaker
Basically the entire one o'clock slate it's except for this like the Miami Houston game had playoff implications that aside from that It was a lot of bad teams playing each other. Yeah, Washington 20 New Orleans 19 controversy at the end the the refs just came out and said that the clock operator Stopped the clock wrongly with nine seconds left it let the Saints get another playoff. They score a TD Missed the two-point convert. I would be so upset if I was a commander's minus seven better dude, that is real. Like that's, that should be investigated more than it is. Because if you looked at the, the game clock stopped, but you saw the play clock ticked off four seconds when they spiked the ball, there's three seconds on the game clock. So the game would have been over if you just, if that clock never stopped at any point, gave them a chance to win the game. Cause they went for two, not even going for overtime. The, the commanders lose their cover or a push, whatever it would have been. I mean, now that is crazy. That should never happen in the NFL.
00:54:07
Speaker
I can understand maybe in college you get the home game clock, they stop it for half a second. This was stopped for four or five seconds in an NFL game in a crucial point of the game. um Yeah, this can't happen and I do think it this shouldn't be brushed off. I think it should actually be looked into.
00:54:23
Speaker
Yeah, investigate the clock operators fan dual account because that was the ref whoever did it like because the ref signaled So I understand the clock operators just like looking for the ref signal Maybe he saw something that the clock operator couldn't but that ref man And did you see like the the quotes from the Sean Hockley interview? So that's all I that's all I got for you It was like we're ending this conversation. Like that is crazy. At least he had to say something though Yeah, it was a I think the more concerning part for commanders ah fans is that you let the Saints back into this game. They had nine penalties for 84 yards. Washington is just tiptoeing with not making the playoffs. I think they're going to. But man, it's going to be close. um this The Sunday night game was awful. Awful viewing experience. Green Bay 30, Seattle 13. Green Bay started to piss me off. I'm going to be honest. I don't know how much of that is from the Dolphins.
00:55:15
Speaker
But I just can't I can't help but feel like something's coming for this team. They're good. they They are good, but they're not great. Like it's I don't put them up there with that upper echelon of NFC teams right now. Nor should you, Damien, because look at their four losses. They've lost to the Eagles ahead of them in the standings. They've lost to the Vikings ahead of them in the standings. And they've lost the Lions twice, both all ahead of them in the standings. So the Green Bay Packers are in the second tier of the NFC.
00:55:42
Speaker
and teams want to throw them in Super Bowl contenders I think they are jumping the gun big time because like you said every time they get in a big game it's not like the bills where the bills getting big games and they prove that they're a better team even the Lions are like in a fight if you can't beat these teams in the biggest games that you have how can I expect you to win them in the playoffs and win three or four in a row to win a Super Bowl I can't ah Josh Jacobs is the horse of this team though like they run through him on offense so if they can maybe
00:56:13
Speaker
They're not even gonna get to host a ah game. like No one's gonna have to come to Lambo either, so they don't have that going for them. Yeah, I i don't see this team as a Super Bowl contender, but I can see them winning ah a game in the playoffs. like I think they're gonna be competitive or hard out, but i'm not I don't see this team as a real Super Bowl threat because they've lost to every team that's ahead of them in the standings in which they played. They're a bully. You're you're right. they They like to bully up on the lower teams. Geno Smith goes out, they bully Sam Howell.
00:56:42
Speaker
They like to bully the teams that aren't as good as them. But then ah as soon as the big bad lines come into town or the Vikings or the Eagles, they shrivel up. So it's it's to me a team that has something coming for them here. ah Seattle finally came down to Earth. It it is going to be bad if Geno Smith is out for like any longer than one game. Like they went from having a chance to win the division and looking like they were in the driver's seat to win the division.
00:57:08
Speaker
to now having a 37% chance to make the playoffs and a 35% chance to win their division. So we're at the point that it's boomer bust. And if you don't have Geno Smith, I am leaning more towards bust.
00:57:20
Speaker
i I apparently misremember Sam Howell because I thought he was going to be a half decent backup option. I was like, he, he at least has an arm. He's going to be able to throw the ball. I even said this offense might not skip a beat because he's kind of a similar quarterback to Gino. Not as good, but you know, the arms there and the arm talent, but he couldn't read anything. It was the slowest processing of a defense I've ever seen. He finishes five of 14 for 24 yards in an interception.
00:57:47
Speaker
He looked horrible, like as bad as you can imagine. I know the Seahawks don't have a good offensive line, but Gino, you know, I will give him more credit than I've been on him for. He got sacked three times, but it could have been seven.
00:58:00
Speaker
And Sam Howell comes in for way less of amount of time and he gets sacked four times as well. So this Seahawks offense is in big trouble without Geno Smith. i don't I don't think they've announced the timeline of that injury yet. I was looking for it a bit today, but it didn't look good. And it was one of those where I'm thinking, okay, you're limping, you're limping, you're standing, takes the helmet off. He looks in pain, but I go, you're not out, are you? Like you you're not out of the game. and then and couple plays happen and you just see Gino limping back to the locker room and then he never returned and that is, that you can't have that for the Seahawks. Here's the update, the headline says Gino Smith's knee in quotes structurally intact. Mike mcdonugh like McDonald didn't offer clarity on a specific diagnosis but said structurally it's all there.
00:58:50
Speaker
but okay so it's not torn yeah i guess is is what we're looking at it's not it hasn't exploded i didn't expect it was because he walked off the field limping um that's a hilarious quote structurally it's all there so physically he has a knee still uh i guess that's good i i guess they haven't said it's season ending which you know usually if it is season ending you kind of know right away i guess you could shoot him up Yeah, the the Mahomes dose. Yeah, exactly. So there's seasons hanging in the balance, though. it's It will live or die with Geno Smith structurally intact knee. Moving quickly, ah this feels like a bad breakup here. Cardinals 30, Patriots 17. The Cardinals win this game but because they had to. They did well running the ball. They now have 12% each for playoff chances and divisional chances.
00:59:40
Speaker
cardinals I'm just done with I'm sorry cardinals it's not you it's me it's ah I don't want to hear from you anymore yeah it is all all all on them we've done everything that we've had to do to keep this relationship alive and they keep letting us down and I can't have it it's toxic at this point um if they beat the Panthers, they will have a chance though. Cause they play the Rams in two weeks straight up. Uh, and then like we said, if Gino's out, like they're not dead, dead. And like you said, 12% chance, but it's, it's not pretty in there. And that offense, like I, I guess it looked good against the Patriots, but I don't know how many teams it's going to look good against. And it's just not consistent. They're Jekyll and Hyde, uh, week to week. So I I'm not going to overreact to this win. Uh,
01:00:24
Speaker
It's one of those where I'm not going to block their number. I'll text you on your birthday. Yeah, we'll stay in touch. But I think for the most part, it's it's over with us. Yeah. New England, on the other hand, seems like things are getting kind of testy over there. I my barometer for New England fans is is friend of the program, Jake Shulls. And his tweets are getting more and more frustrated, I would say. We'll draw it may be back. I don't know.
01:00:50
Speaker
Is it a desirable coaching spot? like To me, it feels like no. like If there was a had a vacancy there that you know the big names wouldn't be clamoring, which is weird to say because Drake May has looked really good.
01:01:05
Speaker
I think it's like ah a neutral spot because you have a quarterback. I think you you have that. I don't know what his potential is, but he Drake May has shown that he can be an NFL quarterback. You're going to have a top five pick in the NFL draft, potentially number one overall. So if you can get a skill player like Travis Hunter or McMillan to kind of help out and be another receiving threat.
01:01:25
Speaker
There's there's potential there, but yeah, you saw um Robert Kraft's son in the box writing down the play. Calling is horrible. Jaramillo's throw in van Pelt, the offensive coordinator under the bus in interviews. It seems like the.
01:01:41
Speaker
the chaos and all the bad things happening in New England is at least with the coaching staff as ah as opposed to the players on the field but like you got some horrible guy like Kishan Bhutte should not be in out in the NFL yet another one where it just hits off his hands intercepted um i think you can go forward with Damario Douglas as in but they need a lot more weapons on that offense to help o drake may ah but go it's not a bad spot to end up as a head coach i think there's much worse situations in the nfl absolutely and
01:02:13
Speaker
one of those situations would probably be one of these or both of these next two teams Jets 32, Jaguars 25, this was a hilarious game for so many different reasons. Mack Jones is talking shit. Aaron Rodgers celebrated that TD pass to Davante Adams like they had just won like a a conference championship game like he's running down the field fist pumping.
01:02:36
Speaker
It divided the ad probably won some people some fantasy playoff games. um But this game was just ridiculous on so many aspects of like both of these teams are so irrelevant to three and 10 teams just beating the shit out of each other. um Shadow Qantas stickers for old Argos player who started his first game at corner. That was cool to see. um But yeah, nothing super relevant from this game whatsoever.
01:03:00
Speaker
No, the, uh, the AP headline is vintage performance by Adams. Rogers carry jets past Jaguars. I don't have two, three win teams first to get to four. I'm sure Jacksonville was more than fine losing this one to help out their draft position. But yeah, the jets can kind of hang their banner. And like, this is a game that jets fans are now going to get their hopes up for next year because Aaron Rogers had you know one good game and it started off kind of poorly in the first half, but then he just started.
01:03:29
Speaker
More than force feeding it to Devontae Adams, but it all worked out like 198 receiving yards parrot touchdowns. Garrett Wilson gets a touchdown in there as well. The offense looked good for the Jets over 30 points. But I mean, this game, this game could have just not happened. You know, like yeah it was just a non-existent game that really doesn't matter. b Brian Thomas Jr. is a stud though for the Jags. That's another one. He may have won some people, some fantasy matchups.
01:03:52
Speaker
Absolutely. ah Another game, though. Can't believe Doug Peterson is still employed by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sick jerseys in that game. i love Those are my favorite throwbacks. I think that it's the second time they've worn them, and I've just i've loved them. Yeah. All the merch too. Peterson had a sick hoodie on. um Dallas 30, Carolina 14. I cannot avoid the sucker bets. I would say that is the third time this season if I had to guess that I have fallen for a sucker bet.
01:04:19
Speaker
ah They shouldn't be favored. Maybe the Panthers just shouldn't be favored. ah That was bad. Dallas is such a weird team. like Where was all this against Cincinnati? like It's not like Cincinnati has an enormously better defense than the Panthers. like i I know they're better, but they're not that much better. like it's How do you go and fucking kick the shit out of the Panthers, but then you you struggle to put up 19 points against the Bengals? I don't know. I got no read on this Dallas team.
01:04:47
Speaker
they were going to beat the Bengals if that guy didn't hit that the blocked punt they were going to be in a decent spot you right the offense wasn't you know humming in that game by any means but they were in a position to win that game the Cowboys are somehow frisky it's unbelievable they're six and eight with Cooper Rush they're not eliminated from the playoffs and they're not going to make it but this is a team where they're going to play spoiler down the stretch to a lot of these teams ah They they play some playoff teams down the stretch like the Buccaneers next week They go at the Eagles and then they finish the season with the commanders and what could be a massive game for the commanders Yeah, it's it Cooper Rush figured out I have a top five receiver on my team and I'm just gonna throw it to him the whole game I think that was the difference in this game as opposed to the Bengals and ah the Panthers
01:05:32
Speaker
They can't play as favorites. They're a team that like and they're not spoilers. They're just a team that has to play as an underdog. um But yeah, it was what 33, 34 straight games. They were underdogs. Now their favorites. Yeah, they they should always just be underdogs. Yeah, that that was pretty much it from this game. ah Baltimore, 35 Giants, 14 hilarious spread because they the books wanted you to take the Giants so badly. I think when we did our picks last week, it was at 12 and a half.
01:06:00
Speaker
and it got as high as 16 and a half and they still covered like it was that was the biggest smokescreen I've ever seen from but from the books of dot they wanted you to take the Giants so badly um but big game from Lamar Jackson he It is the seventh time that he has finished with as many or more passing touchdowns as in completions He now leads NFL history in that stat with seven games I feel bad for Lamar Jackson, which is silly to say about somebody who has already won two MVPs But he's got more yards than Alan He's got more past TD's than Alan. He's tied for total TD's with Alan He's got a higher completion percentage for talking like college comparisons. He beat the bills head-on-head and
01:06:44
Speaker
and he had a great game in that game just feels like it to me and I don't know anything it feels like this MVP race should be closer but when I guess we put the bills and and the fact that they're winning games and they're beating such good teams it it gives out on the edge and it's hard to avoid it because Alan is like front and center making plays in these games but head on head like I think this race is a lot closer than a minus 900 Josh Allen to win MVP suggests I agree. And I think Lamar has a chance to do it this weekend and against the Steelers. They have to win the division for him to get the real MVP consideration. So if he can go out there against the Steelers this week at home, you know, maybe have three passing touchdowns, maybe put one in on the ground, 300 yards passing one of those games against the Steelers. And then they, you know, they went out the rest of the way and they get the division.
01:07:34
Speaker
There's no reason for me not to think that Lamar still has a chance. I believe he's now the second. yeah I think he overtook Saquon over this past week for the second betting fever to win the MVP. So I think if you like the Ravens against the Steelers, I think there could be an argument for just taking Lamar Jackson as um MVP to get some extra juice on there.
01:07:52
Speaker
Yeah, that's a good point. I think it's plus 800 right now. So you'd definitely be getting a pretty penny for it. um Cincinnati 37, Tennessee 27. This was a hilarious Will Levis game. He could not stop throwing interceptions. Pick sixes. He leads the NFL with four pick sixes. Peyton Manning holds the record with six in 2001.
01:08:14
Speaker
I don't think he's going to get a start to getting the running for that. I think he's going to be benched for the rest of the season. He looked very, very bad out there. On the other side, I feel like Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase just switched spots from the start of the season. Jamar Chase is like the the one who's like fine with everything now and he's having a great season. Joe Burrow is getting real pissy.
01:08:38
Speaker
ah shits that is You know, why are you so pissy, Leon? It's now why are you getting so pissy, Joe? He is so upset. Like, he he is shit-talking Zach Taylor on the sideline. He's saying this is embarrassing. I don't know, Joe. Like, you're out of it. Like, ah I don't know.
01:08:56
Speaker
Yeah, no, this is like the hard knocks is going to be a really good episode. I think this week I would love to so maybe get some extra information about how that discussion started because I mean, yeah, like you said, you've been out of this for a bit now, Joe, and you've still been putting up good numbers. You have the two interceptions in this game, which wasn't great. We had another fumble right before the goal line.
01:09:18
Speaker
It's not a pretty, it's not been a pretty year for the Bengals and I can kind of understand why Joe Burrow is getting frustrated because Jamar Chase is still getting all his touches and that's all you really need to keep a wide receiver happy. I truly don't even know if they care about the wins and losses as long as they're getting touchdowns and receiving yards. ah But yeah, Joe Burrow frustrated.
01:09:37
Speaker
Somewhat rightfully so, but also it's just like you you should have been showing this three weeks ago, four weeks ago when you guys had real playoff chances. I guess they're still technically alive. But I mean, they need everything to go their way going forward to get in. Yeah, that's pretty much it. Six turnovers for the defense for the Bengals in this one, which is just nuts. ah They also had 14 penalties for 113 yards. um Casey 21 Cleveland seven.
01:10:05
Speaker
Chiefs finally win by more than one score, but in the pro process lose Patrick Mahomes to an apparent ankle injury. It's very funny seeing Carson Wentz on the field, and it's eerily similar to when Wentz was replaced by Nick Foles back in 2017.
01:10:21
Speaker
Could Carson Wentz come in and lead this team to a few wins? I don't know. um But the Chiefs are in the midst of a of the dreaded three games in 11 days. Feels like there's like four teams in the NFL that are just being put through an absolute wringer here. It's such stupid scheduling. The X-rays were negative. But if I'm KC, I'm sitting Mahomes versus the Texans.
01:10:43
Speaker
I think the line indicates that he's not playing next week. The Texans are favored over the Chiefs. So I would assume you could get a, if you want to gamble on that, you'd get a good price on the Chiefs. If you think he's going to play right now. Um, but yeah, this was, I feel like my homes gets a one week borderline ankle injury every year somehow. And it usually happens right as the weather starts to get a little bit colder. Um,
01:11:08
Speaker
It's a shame because like you said, this was like a, not a statement win for the chiefs, but ah a comfortable win for them where they've not had many this season. And then you some, and now you lose your quarterback for, you know, I think, I think they had as week to week, one to two weeks as the injury. And, and like you said, you got three games and 11 days. I don't know how you handle this, but I mean, I trust the chiefs. I think if Carson went somehow upsets the Texans or just wins that game,
01:11:35
Speaker
I don't think you need to play them against the Steelers because I think you basically have the home field advantage. But I'm not in the Chiefs. I don't know how serious the actual injury is, um but it's going to be now. Now we got a chief storyline down the stretch, which is something that we weren't. It was a different storyline for the Chiefs, but now it's like, can they win with without my homes and how serious is this injury? Yeah, yeah, that's a good way to put it. um Last quickly, we'll go all the way back to the Thursday night game Rams 12 San Francisco six ah Rams get a huge divisional win San Francisco drops to one in four in NFC West games this year, which is just outrageously bad ah The Rams had already beaten the Seahawks once and they finished Jets Cardinals Seattle Seahawks finished Vikings Bears Rams. So the Rams are in a
01:12:22
Speaker
very good position, 53% for both the playoffs and the division, which is they just have to win their division. um And I think that I'm leaning the Rams right now. They are kind of round rounding into form. This was a game where they didn't look fantastic and yet I thought their defense looked great against San Francisco and I'm kind of trusting them more and more to be a playoff team.
01:12:43
Speaker
Yeah, they control their own destiny to win the division, which I think is huge going down the stretch, especially a team that's starting to get hot here at the end of the season. And that was one of the worst games I've watched all season long. ah But the Rams found a way credit to them. You have to win games ugly sometimes and they were able to.
Devondra Campbell's Controversial Exit
01:12:59
Speaker
um I'm I'm definitely in the boat of I don't need Thursday night football games. so no not at all is the the product has been so sloppy this year i think there's there's three games that we're entertaining but for the most part you get what you got like this past thursday yeah and and when you have teams playing three games in 11 days or three games in 10 days it's like wait why are we playing on thursday night a weird story out of this one 49ers
01:13:26
Speaker
linebacker Devondra Campbell essentially just quit on the team in the middle of the game like walked off the field like did said he wasn't playing anymore they've now suspended him without pay for the rest of the season citing conduct detrimental to the team he can't sign with anyone he can't earn any money ah and I don't know I go back and forth on this one my initial reaction was like if I'm the NFL PA this seems so fucking out of whack that you can just essentially like banish a guide to the shadow realm for the rest of the season but then I saw somebody make it a point that they don't want it like the NBA where guys feel like they can sit out whenever they want to and there's no repercussions I don't know I go back and forth what do you think about that
01:14:10
Speaker
The Ravens did it to Deontay Johnson earlier in the year. He refused to come into a game. He got a one game suspension without pay. it's It's different. I think if you make a statement before the game, I think you say, Hey, I'm not playing before the game. I'm not feeling great. Whatever. I think you have an argument there, but I believe Devondra Campbell said he wasn't coming into the game because he felt disrespected that they started former all pro Dre Greenlaw in his spot in his first game back.
01:14:37
Speaker
who That's a guy who thinks he's bigger than the team. So the without pay is like, I get it. I just, I get it. I don't know if it's necessarily the correct thing to do or the right thing to do, but I definitely understand where the 49ers are coming from because this is a guy who just, how do you not have any respect for Dre Greenlaw who, you know, has worked so hard to come back from that injury, couldn't finish the game. And you know, you've been starting for most of the year and then you just go, no, I'm not playing like that. That seems crazy to me.
01:15:06
Speaker
And he just walked off. you At least Deontay Johnson stayed on the sideline and pretended like he was banged up or something. Devundra Campbell just walked off the field. Yeah, pretty nuts. um But with that, we will go to our goalpost
Strategic Betting Insights and Picks
01:15:19
Speaker
picks. Now, I was 26 and 16. I went 1 and 2. I am now 27 and 18.
01:15:27
Speaker
Patrick was 19 and 20, went 2 and 1 with a big cover from the Vikings last night, and is now 21 and 21. Patrick's back to 500, he's now within 6.
01:15:40
Speaker
That was not a good weekend for me. And now you're kind of, you're back and making things interesting. I don't love it. And, and you go first now cause you won last week. I had to have that week and I'm happy. I did it in a way where I just didn't directly fade you, even though I probably, I would have ended up with the exact same record, but it feels good to get to 500 and Damon, if I can't catch you, my goal is to still finish above 500. So this goal, post so the goal post podcast can say,
01:16:04
Speaker
we won people money throughout the entire year. So we're at the same time, I'm going against you, but um so we're still in the same we're still on the same team. And with that being said, I got the ugliest pick you've ever seen to start this thing off. um the This line just keeps going back and forth since it came out last night. Not not like crazily, but just back and forth.
01:16:24
Speaker
ah Right now, they're underdogs, but I'm not going to take the points. I'm just going to go for the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Vegas Raiders. They're minus 104 on the money line, plus one and a half on the spread. But I'll just... What do you want? Because it's been going back and forth. It's just like... I don't have any money line at all. But they're minus 104 on the money line. So it's not even plus money. I'll take the one and a half. do you want that I'll take the one one tax plus one and a half.
01:16:51
Speaker
I had that, uh, I had that down as well. That was a one that I was kind of eyeing. That's a crazy spread. Yeah. Like Mac Jones has got swag right now. He's feeling good. And Desmond Ritter looks so bad. Uh, all right. Uh, fuck. I like a lot of favorites this week, which is kind of scaring me. Um, yeah. Okay. All right. Let's lock. Let's lock the fuck in here right now. I'm going to go.
01:17:17
Speaker
Lions six and a half against the Bears. I think that I know it was a close game Thanksgiving. That was the Lions lost a lot of guys in that game. But after hearing that Dan Campbell speech and how fired up he was after that loss, I think this is a get right game for the
Lions vs. Bears: Confidence and Quitting
01:17:35
Speaker
Lions. And after what I just saw from the Bears last night, I don't trust them to be able to do that twice against the Lions.
01:17:41
Speaker
Yeah, I think you can. I think it's a good strategy. Fading the Bears down the stretch here because I think it's a team that has kind of quit on this season. um I'm going to Thursday. I'm going to Thursday night. Give me the Broncos plus three. I think they're a better team than the Chargers. ah the The travel, they don't have to go across the country at least. And yeah, I like the Broncos in this one ah catching three points. I looked at that as well. um I am going to with my next pick.
01:18:11
Speaker
I'm gonna take Shit man, there's a lot of big spreads I'm gonna take the bills 14 and a half against the paths here. I Think this is eerily similar to the Ravens giant spread ah from this past week If I had to guess this spread goes even more towards the bills over the next few days.
01:18:33
Speaker
Yeah, I don't hate it. The bills are rolling Patriots. I, so I think in the back of their mind, they want a better draft pick, even though they're not necessarily showing that as much as other teams, but I think it's in the back of their mind.
01:18:46
Speaker
You didn't get any timeline on that Geno injury. not really dude i i was looking at the vikings yeah i'm looking at it right now minus three and a half plus 100 for some reason uh so i think that's going to go four but i'm not going to go he said hopefully we'll see him practice throughout the week i'm optimistic that he'll be ready for the game OK, then I'm going to stay away. I'm going to go with our Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Dallas Cowboys. I'm taking I'm taking three road dogs. I don't know how this is going to work out. Seems like it could be a recipe for disaster or sorry.
College Football Playoff Ticket Pricing
01:19:19
Speaker
No, the Buccaneers are a favorite. but I'm taking three road teams. And yeah, we'll see. We'll see how my luck ah runs out here. I like.
01:19:26
Speaker
I like your board a lot more than mine right now. Um, love that. All right. I'm going to kind of go in a similar direction here with a big spread, but as a dog, I'm going to take, Oh, it's the Monday night game. I hate that. Nevermind. Nevermind. I was going to take the saints plus 13 and a half against the Packers, but I want to stay away from the Packers. I don't like being on that. um'm You know what? Fuck it. I'm going to go for my third favorite here. I'm going to go Eagles three and a half against the commanders. I think that this Eagles team is just simply better than this commander's team. And I think they're going to kind of put them in the dirt in this game.
01:20:05
Speaker
That was yeah I was going to take the Vikings if Gino was implying. But since that's up in the air, I'm just not going to touch it. The Eagles, I was between them and the Buccaneers for that last back. So i I like it a lot. All right. There it is. There's our goalpost picks. It's getting down to crunch time. we're We're losing weeks left in the season. This is our third last week of this picks battle. like I got a feeling it's going to go down to the wire here. um When we come back, we will switch gears to college football.
01:20:32
Speaker
where we will preview each of the first round games in the first ever 12 team playoff, the first ever home games in a college football playoff. So come back after this for a little college football talk. All right, welcome back to some college football talk.
01:20:49
Speaker
We are in the midst of the playoffs now. We got our first playoff games coming up this weekend and it all starts on Friday night with number 10 Indiana at number seven. Notre Dame Notre Dame is favored by seven and a half points over under 51 and a half. Before we get to any sort of game preview, we got ticket gate going on in this one. You mentioned it when we talked about the the playoffs two episodes ago.
01:21:17
Speaker
The current get-in prices for college football games in round one on StubHub, the average ticket price for Indiana and Notre Dame, $416. Actually, no, not average. That's the lowest ticket prices, $416. SMU Penn State, $57. Clemson, Texas, $108. And eight dollars in Tennessee, Ohio State, $142.
01:21:39
Speaker
That is an insane, insane difference. I guess Indiana, in 49 other states, it's just football. and a man the Indiana, that that is shocking that like I get it. I think Notre Dame is arguably the biggest brand in college football. They're so big, they think they don't even need a conference to get their own TV deals. like I understand how Notre Dame can drive um a pretty penny,
01:22:03
Speaker
But if you're looking at the best matchup, I think you got to look in
Indiana vs. Notre Dame: A Battle of Strengths
01:22:07
Speaker
Columbus. I think Penn State's a hungrier, hungrier team to host a playoff game. They're having a noon whiteout kind of thing. Like to me, it is shocking that the most expensive ticket is in Indiana with a team that has.
01:22:20
Speaker
Not Notre Dame, but Indiana has had little to no actual success. So I guess maybe that is the reason why it's more expensive because who knows if Indiana will ever be back in a spot like this. So I guess they're thinking it's worth paying a little bit more money to watch their Hoosiers play in a playoff game.
01:22:37
Speaker
And I don't know how it works it says you know what I found on the reddit was that they were only given thirty five hundred tickets I don't i don't really know what that means um but a lot of Notre Dame fans are like don't worry like Indiana fans are just gonna stick out because they're wearing red so it's like they they're worried about their their home it feel the advantage here um But over to the game preview, this one is an interesting one to me because there's a lot of big spreads in these in these first round games. That's going to be a trend that you notice over these previews here. And this is a big spread, seven and a halfs, a lot of points. I think that that Indiana lost to Ohio State is really lingering in a lot of people's minds. um But when you look at the game preview, I think something that clearly sticks out to you is that Indiana has the edge at quarterback.
01:23:23
Speaker
Curtis Rourke is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football, even more than Riley Leonard across the field from him. Their pass game is extremely efficient. They averaged 439 yards per game, their second behind Miami, and scoring. Only Oregon was better on 3rd down in the Big 10.
01:23:43
Speaker
Notre Dame secondary is going to be without their best cornerback in Benjamin Morrison. They allowed almost 10 yards per play against USC. So if you're looking at kind of a game plan trying to draw out in Indiana win here, it's probably going to come from the passing game like it's it's not going to come on the ground.
01:24:01
Speaker
Yeah, it's a team that operates a lot on tempo, not not like the Dolphins because they throw it the ball a different way, but they want to go fast. Curtis Rourke gets the ball out of his hands exceptionally quick, which can kind of neutralize the deficiency in their offensive line going up against maybe a tougher team like Notre Dame, where I don't think that in In the passing game at least, I don't think the the offensive and defensive line is necessarily going to come into play. It's more so whether they're wide receivers and skill players can make enough plays on the outside and make things happen. because Curtis Rourke is going to be able to throw the ball. Even against Ohio State, he was throwing the ball. They kind of struggled rushing the ball against Ohio State. it was more They were still able to operate.
01:24:42
Speaker
quickly but like i said their biggest detriment against ohio state was they weren't able to get that tempo they weren't able to get that rhythm where i kind of worry about that against the team like nor dame because even against michigan who's You know, a tough team, but not a great team. Michigan was able to hang into that, hang in that game. They kept it ugly. They kept them in the game. So I think that is kind of the outline for how Notre Dame should play in Indiana, where it's just physical, you know, try and get them off tempo and off rhythm behind the chains. Don't let them get those five, six yards on first down.
01:25:17
Speaker
and make Curtis Rourke have to throw the ball in obvious passing situations because i like just they have two good running backs. like Don't get me wrong, Justice Eliason and Tyson Lawton, they're skilled players. They're both over 500 yards. Ellison had over 800 yards on the ground.
01:25:34
Speaker
But I don't know if they're going to be able to run the ball against the Notre Dame as well as they were against some of their other opponents. So I think Kurt Signetti and their offensive game plan is going to have to get a little more creative than they were against Ohio State and find different ways to beat this Notre Dame defense. Yeah. And I think it it's a shame that they don't have a better running game because I think that that is a weakness that this Notre Dame team has is that they aren't great at stopping the run. um USC ran for one ninety seven.
01:26:02
Speaker
Northern Illinois ran for 190 when they beat Notre Dame army and Navy both reached over 200 yards I know that's a bit skewed because they're running like a triple option against them that it doesn't quite count but Michigan held Indiana to 40 yards on the ground or how state allowed just 83 yards like The running game is going to be interesting in this one because I think that that is really the Irish's bread and butter. They love getting ahead of schedule by running the football. So if you're Indiana, you kind of have to one, try to establish the run game and two, you're going to have to put a lot of effort into stopping the run game. But then then again, when you tried to stop it against Ohio State,
01:26:40
Speaker
Will Howard just kind of dice them through the air. And they got control of that game because they were able to have like a conservative passing game that just kept moving the sticks. And there weren't even deep passes from Will Howard. It was like medium intermediate throws, kind of like how the Eagles be the same. Just slants, just guys are getting open quicker, ball out of their hands, efficient offense. That's exactly what Curtis Rourke in Indiana is going to look to do. Notre Dame is going to try and stop that. I do believe Notre Dame will have the best player on the field. And that's their running back in Jeremiah Love.
01:27:10
Speaker
is a guy who has, you know, he got banged up against USC. So I don't know if he's going to necessarily be at 100%, but he is going to play in this one. He's got 15 touchdowns on the year. Indiana is going to have to shut him down and make Riley Leonard put the ball in his hands. Cause like you said, like the Hoosiers do have the number one big 10 rushing defense and they, they're a discipline team, Kurt Signetti. They're not going to take a ton of penalties. So if they can just,
01:27:38
Speaker
sell out basically to stop Jeremiah Love in this ground and make Riley Leonard beat them. He has some likes too. That's another like Riley Leonard is just, yeah I haven't watched a ton in Notre Dame this year. I'll be honest with you, but I know Riley Leonard has his likes. He likes to use them, but he's kind of, I trust Curtis Rourke with the ball in his hands more than I trust Riley Leonard. So if Indiana wants to, you know, cover the spread here, keep it close and win this game, they have to commit to stopping Jeremiah Love, who I believe is the best player on the field in this game.
01:28:08
Speaker
Yeah, it's very true. It's you want to make Riley Leonard beat you in the air in this game. I think that is that the key and you can't let him get comfortable. I think that's going to be a big point for Notre Dame is at times this year kind of takes.
01:28:23
Speaker
a little bit for Leonard to get comfortable in a game to get into a rhythm. And once he does, if they can get ahead of schedule with Jeremiah Love in their running game, it opens everything up but ah for this offense. So you got to stop the run game and then you got to kind of get ah Leonard off schedule, ah you know tons of pressure on them But really interested to see how this game works out in terms of picks. I love the over in this game It's it's tough. I went back and forth ah of you know, there's two good defenses going up against each other but I think the way this game is gonna go is that Indiana is gonna come out swinging get a couple of early scores and Then you know Notre Dame will ease into this game and kind of respond back But I think it's gonna be back and forth which is gonna end up kind of pushing this game over
01:29:09
Speaker
I gotta to be honest, I was kind of leaning under. A lot of that was taking the weather into consideration, and theys excuse me, mid to low twenties. and That's not really a detriment to either team. They're both from Indiana, obviously they're used to playing in colder weather games. To me, I go, Marcus Freeman, I trust more as a head coach than Kurt Signetti. He's played in bigger games. I know he has struggled in big games, not to like the James Franklin kind of narrative, but like he couldn't beat Ohio State when he had them on the ropes last year. He obviously lost to and NIU. They were able to beat Texas A and&M. So maybe they're, you know, getting the monkey off the back a little bit, so to speak.
01:29:46
Speaker
But i I worry about Indiana in a massive spot like this with all the pressure on them. Like Notre Dame was always going to make the playoffs. This was their goal. They were always going to be in this spot probably hosting a home playoff game.
01:30:01
Speaker
Indiana, this is all house money. So i I just worry about the mindset of the Indiana Hoosiers being like, hey, man, we're we're all good. Like we've done more than we were expected to in this game or in this season. Sorry. Whereas Notre Dame is good. This job is far from finished. So I lean Notre Dame in this game, maybe and maybe on the under like I like Notre Dame to cover the spread. I think they can win this game by 10 points. But I do. I wouldn't be surprised if Indiana keeps tight. I think this is one of those games where you're going to know after Indiana's first two drives, whether they're going to be in this game or not. But i I think out of all the teams, my biggest question marks are on Indiana. And listen, I will be yeah rooting for them because of Curtis Roark. And I think it's a cool story. But I just I think Notre Dame is just going to be the better team in this one and just kind of outmatch them. Yeah, it's Indiana and it's Clemson who I would say have the biggest question marks in terms of
01:30:55
Speaker
the matchup and in terms of who they're going against across the field from them. ah But you're right. I think I think if anything, I think that Ohio State game is going to be more of a learning experience and like is going to help Indiana in this game rather than, you know, people using it as a point against them. Like, look at what happened to Ohio State. I think getting a chance to play an opponent that's that much better only really helps a team like Indiana. But you're right. We're going to know in the first quarter here if we have a game on our hands or not.
SMU vs. Penn State: Poise vs. Physicality
01:31:23
Speaker
Yeah, because like Notre Dame played USC in ah in a massive shootout. Like I think you're kind of expecting in this game or just Notre Dame would go down. They get a touchdown. USC would go down. They get a touchdown. So I think that's kind of what you're expecting in this game, which I absolutely can see happening, especially if Indiana can like.
01:31:40
Speaker
If Indiana is able to just operate their offense as they plan to, they might win this game because I do think their offense and throwing power is better than what Notre Dame offers from their like throwing. Notre Dame wants to run the ball, kill clock, ah keep the Indiana offense on the sideline for as long as it can. which is why I kind of lean under, but I'm not going to actually, I'm not going to touch the under. ah But yeah, I think I'm going to go in order to minus the points in this one. And I just think Jeremiah Love's going to be able to get it done on the ground, no matter what Indiana does to try and stop him.
01:32:13
Speaker
Yeah, that one's on Friday night. It'll be a great kickoff to the the weekend. That's like a perfect bar game. Like, oh, I don't need you don't need the audio on. You're just going to watch it. Yeah. it's that And it's the perfect Friday. If I had to go through the four, I mentioned this last time. This is the Friday night game and it worked out perfectly. Absolutely. um Moving to number 11, SMU versus number six, Penn State. Penn State is favored by eight and a half over under 53 and a half.
01:32:41
Speaker
Why don't happy value mentioned it it's gonna be a 12 o'clock game it is going to be one of the harder road environments in this first round I think that Penn State is starved for a game like this their home crowd is starved for a game like this and Against the team from Dallas You could not ask for a better matchup from an environment perspective, from a cold weather perspective. It's going to be fucking freezing in this game. Similar to Notre Dame, I think that SMU needs to get Kevin Jennings in a groove early. He made a lot of mistakes early in the game against Clemson. Penn State has a great pass rush led by Abdul Carter. You got to get easy completions often if your SMU
01:33:26
Speaker
Just let him use his legs, let him find easy slants early in this game because I feel like even more than Indiana, this is a big, big spot for SMU that they are not used to. And you got to find a way to get him in a rhythm early and get long possessions and keep the ball out of Penn State's hands.
01:33:46
Speaker
I think this is the biggest mismatch between the four. i I'm shocked at this line. I would have had this line and the Clemson Texas line switched. ah yeah To me, Penn State is a national title contender and SMU is one of those teams where they're happy to be there after losing their conference championship game. They had a huge comeback in the fourth quarter, 17 points. I think they all thought it was going to overtime and then their hearts got broken. Lucky they got in, not lucky, but like,
01:34:16
Speaker
they're happy to be in the playoff. And I have the same mindset where it's like, are they, do they think they're accomplished? Do they think the goals is finished? Because they need to find a way to stop Tyler Warren. you It's the Penn State game plan is so simple, but can you stop it? And I don't think they can. I think they're going to be more physical on both sides of the ball. They're going to, Drew Aller is absolutely a better quarterback than Kevin Jennings.
01:34:41
Speaker
I don't know the no Bo Prabula packages. I don't know how much that's going to play a part in this, but he's not going to be part of their team after he's announced that he's entered the transfer portal. Drew, Drew Allen is coming back. I was shocked, shocked to see that ah hilarious tweet. I forget. He tweeted, it said that the Argos GM just fell to his knees in a Tim Hortons after reading that. But I thought Drew Allen stock was rising. Like I, I thought if anything, I guess next year somehow is a weaker QB class. Like.
01:35:11
Speaker
you got arch manning uh i don't know there's there's some bad i think there's i think the talent in next year is higher than this year i had drew as the number two quarterback i can understand if you had cam ward as the number two but i think our is younger i think he fits the mold of an nfl quarterback a little bit better and just his size the way he commands a pocket, the way he throws the ball. It's very impressive. The way he's been developed over his three years at Penn State, he's gone better every year. And I think that's a huge sign ah in a good way. But I don't see SMU stopping Tyler Warren in this, but they have a chance because SMU, Kevin Jennings, they are a high flying offense, man. So to me, this is the matchup to watch is the SMU offense against the Penn State defense. SMU has the sixth ranked scoring offense in the NCAA. Penn State is ranked eighth in scoring defense, so will SMU's high-powered offense be enough to stop the tough physical defense led by Abdul Carter and in Penn State? I think Penn State's going to out-physical them, and I don't think this high-flying offense will be what we what we become used to with watching SMU.
01:36:18
Speaker
Yeah, I think that whoever dominates the trenches in this game is going to win this game. I think in an environment like this, whoever controls the trenches is going to win this game. If Penn State establishes a good run game, it'll open up everything else for them to expose an SMU secondary that got kind of picked apart by Clemson early in that game. It'll also let Penn State kind of control the game flow of this game, use the crowd to their advantage. If you stop an SMU rush attack,
01:36:47
Speaker
It'll throw the Mustangs out of rhythm and will force Jennings to do too much. like I think everything kind of starts in the trenches in this game. um You know, they got to get to the quarterback to Penn State like that they, you know, did a pretty good job in that game against Oregon. ah But against Jennings, like Jennings struggled with Clemson's pass rush.
01:37:07
Speaker
And I think that Penn State has a much better pass rush than Clemson. So you're right. This is a kind of a matchup nightmare, I would say, for SMU. I would think that this game would be a bigger spread. And that's why I think I'm taking Penn State with the points in this game. I love them on the spread.
01:37:25
Speaker
me as well ah this is if I had to give a best bet out of the four this would be my best bet the only thing I guess there is worry and concern for for Penn State they're a bit of a slow starting team and if SMU has the game plan to take Tyler Warren out and Penn State can't get someone else to step up offensively Not so worried about the running game. They got two great running backs with Allen and Singleton, but more so the receiving game. They really have struggled with someone stepping up as a secondary receiver and like Penn State's been tied or losing at half and six of their 13 games this season. So if SMU can keep this thing tight in the first half, they're going to be in it, obviously.
01:38:02
Speaker
but it's it's something that Penn State's kind of had a narrative of. It's a noon start. Who knows how they come out of the gates. So that's kind of something to look for. If you see Penn State coming out slow, then SMU is going to be very happy team. And I think they're going to kind of look to kill the clock a little bit. I know they're high powered, but I think the longer that the SMU offense is on the field, the better it is for them and their chances to win this game.
Clemson vs. Texas: Quarterback Advantage?
01:38:24
Speaker
Yeah, turnover battle is going to be huge in this one, too. If SMU can find a way to win the turnover battle, ah give themselves short fields, I think that'll be a huge, huge benefit to them. um Moving to number 12, Clemson, number five, Texas. Texas is favored by 11 and a half points over under 51 and a half. This is the game I'm most interested in seeing how it plays out.
01:38:49
Speaker
I think the elephant in the room is Clemson versus the SEC. They lost to both of their SEC opponents in South Carolina and Georgia this year. Klubnick had no passing touchdowns and two interceptions in those games.
01:39:02
Speaker
And they scored a combined 17 points in those two games. They had offensive line struggles against elite defensive lines. And that's exactly what Texas has. Texas has a great defensive line. And I think similar to the SMU Penn State game, this is a bit of a matchup nightmare for Clemson.
01:39:21
Speaker
I see things differently. I think, well, I led on to it a little bit last time where I think this is far too many points. I'm going to be taking Clemson on the money line in this game. I'll just, bear I'm not going to bury the lead at all. I love them in the spot just because I think they have the edge at quarterback. And that's crazy to say, might be crazy to say.
01:39:39
Speaker
But the way Quinn Ewers has been playing over the last three, four games, he's got like a 60% completion percentage. He's throwing muffins. All the balls seem to float. There's no zip and they're not scoring. They're not getting, when they get to the red zone or inside the 30, they're not scoring. ah Brad Auburn has not been a great kicker. He's been missing kicks and I don't necessarily trust him to make kicks. We're on the other side. We got Hauser just nailed a 56 yarder outdoors to win the ACC championship.
01:40:08
Speaker
So I do, I do worry about the, the line situation, Damon, don't get me wrong because that's where Texas has the edge. Absolutely. But I think I trust Cade club, Nick more than I do. Quinn Ewers. The issue is Clemson's running game, which kind of goes hand in hand with their offensive line, right? You got Phil Moffa who.
01:40:28
Speaker
came in with a high expectations and i think they thought he was going to be like a potential all pro or not all pro all americans sorry all acc owners well he's had 125 rushing yards in clemson's last four games so they've basically had a non-existent running game and kate clubnick has had to Almost single-handedly win these games down the stretch. I know they lost to South Carolina in a tight one where some calls didn't go their way But to me, I think clums has played a tougher schedule I think they're more battle-tested and I think it's the opposite where
01:41:01
Speaker
They're not going to get greedy. Like they are hungry. They're happy to be in this, in this playoff, but they're not satisfied in Texas. I mentioned it last time. Every time they play a big game, they lose it. So to me, Eileen Clemson, I'll take the points and I'll probably going to take the money line in this one. Yeah, it's interesting. Like I just think that one, I think that they,
01:41:21
Speaker
Sarcasian is a smart enough coach to realize that you know they missed an opportunity in the SEC title game to use Manning I think they really they're gonna realize that now and I think it played a part in them losing that game so I think that they will see ah like We'll see a ah big uptick in how often arch manning is used in this game And I think giving Clemson different looks in this one and not letting them get used to defending and reading yours is gonna be a big plus Kelvin Banks jr. Is a good running back for Texas. I think that if they establish the run game It's gonna be hard for Clemson to kind of like if Texas gets ahead in this game I think it's gonna be really hard for Clemson to crawl back because
01:42:02
Speaker
of the lack of a rushing attack. If Klubnick is forced to throw the ball 50 times in this game, I think that it gives Texas an opportunity to kind of get a read on their defense and it's going to be too predictable to the point that Clemson is going to be kind of scratching and clawing to get his way out of a deficit early in this one.
01:42:20
Speaker
The defensive line is so good that I think it's going to get club Nick out of rhythm and get a lot of pressure on him. I'm really leaning more with Texas's defense rather than putting my chips behind Texas's offense in this one. I could very well see I came into this game high on Clemson, but I think the more that I looked at it and the more I looked at the matchups, I think that it it kind of swayed me back towards Texas. I think something big in this game, like if you are trying to draw comparisons to how Clemson wins this game. Texas takes a ton of penalties and their turnover margin isn't great. So I think that if Clemson is responsible and they don't take a lot of penalties and they win the turnover margin, you can give yourself short fields against a good defense and kind of claw in and get points back in that way. So I go back and forth, but I like Texas in this game simply from a defensive standpoint.
01:43:10
Speaker
Yeah, it's which which quarterback's not going to turn into a pumpkin, right? And I lean Kade Klubnick over the past couple of games. It's also a sneaky rivalry game between these two quarterbacks from their high school days, which I think is going to like Kade Klubnick playing against a lot of former opponents on Texas from his high or not opponents, teammates from high school. They're now opponents on Texas.
01:43:31
Speaker
I don't know. And I think like Texas or sorry, Clemson is as a better ah defensive line than people give them credit for. T.J. Parker is a good player. He's got 19 tackles for loss. I think it's tied for fourth in the ACC. So they're not they're giving up some you know weight and and power and I guess overall to the defensive and offensive line. But this is a Clemson team. You know, Dabo is going to have them ready to go. They've been here. This is this was their goal as well to win the ACC and to win a playoff game.
01:44:01
Speaker
It's it's one of the few matchups where the weather's not going to matter either. I don't know. Eileen Clemson. I like the team that's getting hard at the right time, as opposed to the team that's kind of losing games and hasn't really been battle tested throughout this season. But this is a man I meant to I meant to look into who's wearing what jerseys in this one, because I think that's going to be crucial. I think it's whatever team doesn't look. I think Clemson should be in their orange. And I think Texas, I hope Texas wears the all whites.
01:44:28
Speaker
But I'm not sure how it's going to go because we'll get to it. But Ohio State has made some questionable ah uniform choices for their um playoff game that they're hosting. And I guess in Texas is definitely an advantage. But to me, eleven and a half points is far too many in this one. I guess I'd kind of lean over as well. Fifty one and a half. I can see this game going over. See, I was going to say my best bet, maybe of the all four is under in this one.
01:44:53
Speaker
Did some digging. Clemson has gone below the total in four of the past six. Texas has gone under in this total in eight of their last nine. I'm i'm convinced. I was just looking at it and then I remembered last week how the Georgia Texas game matched up. and It was just defensive battle and defensive front.
01:45:11
Speaker
I just have that ACC Championship game in my head with the high-scoring Clemson offense and SMU turned it on late. So actually, yeah, you have you have talked me out of that ah over where I'm just going to stick with Clemson in this one. Wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off the upset. I'm trying to find these. Maybe they haven't released it.
Ohio State vs. Tennessee: Recovery and Strategy
01:45:29
Speaker
In part of my prep, I said, I have to look at these uniforms, and I did not. I'm on the TigerNet message board here. It's a Clemson message board.
01:45:39
Speaker
It says Clemson has a six and four record overall in the playoffs when Clemson has worn all orange. There are three and four when Clemson has worn white jerseys and orange pants. There are three and oh, let's hope they're wearing those. Let's hope they're wearing those uniforms and then go Tigers. I'm going to be um I'm the dab. I'm Clemson's my dark horse in this playoff in case you haven't noticed already. um But I think in one of these four games, there has to be at least one upset.
01:46:05
Speaker
yeah Could be in the next one we're getting to but I Lee I don't think all favorites are gonna win ah every playoff game I think it's plus 195 I saw for an upset. It's like over one and a half upset or no. Okay, so Yeah, yeah it was one and a half so yeah i just I think we're gonna get one I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if there was two I guess III don't know but I think People are going to see these massive spreads and think we're going to get a bunch of blowouts. But I think these games can be closer than people think. Yeah. And that'll bring us to our last game and what I think will be the closest game. Number nine, Tennessee versus number eight, Ohio State, who is favored by seven and a half over under forty six and a half.
01:46:47
Speaker
Ohio State finally gets their night game and Columbus, I think, is going to be rocking in this one. Patrick, what is your opening read for this game from an Ohio State perspective? Because it it is one where if you look at these two teams, they're quite different. Very different. I think Tennessee is kind of a better version of Michigan and in a sense. um And i for me, my opening read is How does oh Ohio State bounce back, right? This is their first game since the the ah the worst loss they've had and in decades, perhaps in their program history. ah Ryan Day has been scrutinized many times, but not as much as he was over that past game. Chip Kelly caught a a million ricochet shots as well, I would say deserved.
01:47:32
Speaker
But it's it's how is Ohio State going to bounce back? Because I believe at their best and at Tennessee's best, Ohio State is the better team. But I don't know how they're going to respond. I got to think the home playoff night game helps a lot, especially with the temperature. um I think temperature is an overrated thing in NFL games because you're getting guys from places all over North America playing in the football games. But when the team is in Tennessee,
01:47:59
Speaker
and they recruit from the south and all they know is is football and warm weather coming up to Columbus at night. It's probably go be low twenties, maybe high teens Fahrenheit. It's going to be cold for them. There's going to be a lot of breath. Tennessee is practicing inside all week. It's ah I don't know. I'm I'm.
01:48:17
Speaker
I'd be lying if I told you I was 100% confident in this game. I'll say that much. But um I just worry about this offensive line against te or Tennessee's defensive line. Like James Pierce Jr. is a first round draft pick from the edge position. At least our tackles, I believe, I have faith with. But up the middle, the Ohio State offensive line has been hurt with some injuries. Yeah, trenches are going to be important in this one. I sound like a broken record. but Tennessee is both good at rushing the quarterback and elite at stopping the run. I think they have an edge on the defensive line That's not a secret to anyone um Ohio State slated to be down a couple different starting offensive linemen, but I think after that Michigan game Chip Kelly if he has half a brain will know to lean on his receivers rather than leaning on the run game I think OSU is gonna be much more hesitant to run the ball or or to force the run I would say more
01:49:12
Speaker
Um, but yeah, if Tennessee wants to win their pass rush has to step up and be great. Um, force will Howard in uncomfortable positions. Um, the secondary is going to have to, is is going to be in tough. Like this is a extremely talented receiver room for Ohio state.
01:49:26
Speaker
And you can't have you can't let Howard have time to find those guys. We saw what happened to Indiana. Like if it's a similar attempt to Indiana where they sell out to stop the run or they're very heavy on stopping the run, they'll just dice them up through the air on slants and kind of control the game flow at home. So this is a game where I think Tennessee has to get up early to try and hold a lead and play from a position of leverage.
01:49:52
Speaker
um If Ohio State gets up with this crowd, I like them to kind of be able to run away with the right game plan in this game. Yeah, Ohio State's also one of those teams that's kind of been slow starters this year. They were against Indiana, especially against Penn State. Thankfully, they were able to overcome those slow starts and win. Michigan, they did not. So that is something I worry about. Like if Tennessee can get up to a quick 10-0 lead or something at home, take the crowd out of it. that's nightmares yeah That's a nightmare situation for Ohio State. So I think, you know, getting out of the gates early
01:50:24
Speaker
Getting your receivers, get all three of them, Carnell Tate, Agbuca and Smith, just get them touches on that first drive. And I think you got to be creative with ah how you use your running backs with Travion and Quinchon. I think you got to you go to the sidelines. It may look soft, but I think you got to do like these jet sweeps, the quick screens, keep it away from the center of the field. Whereas against Michigan, don't play into their strength where you're just running it up the middle. um Dylan Sampson is I think the best player on Tennessee, that's not going to be shocking to anyone. He's got almost 1500 yards on the ground and 22 touchdowns. So if Ohio State's able to like commit to stopping the run, which I think their defense is good enough to, especially their defensive line. The linebackers are, you know, a little bit of a worry, but you got Caleb Downs as your safety.
01:51:10
Speaker
He's going to be coming downhill the entire game. I like that matchup. It's just similar to what Indiana has to do with Notre Dame. Put the ball in Nico's hands. This is going to be a tough environment for Nico to play in. he's He's raw. He's young. He hasn't played in many games like this in the cold. And I think that's if Ohio State can commit to stopping Dylan Sampson and put the ball in Nico's hands. That's where I think they have the biggest edge in this game, where like they can kind of They're definitely outmatched on their defensive and offensive line. But i oh there's ways around that offensively to ah to like kind of mitigate that problem. Whereas if Ohio State commits to stopping the running game and Nico has to throw it 40 times in this game, I like Ohio State's chances. But I don't I think I like Tennessee with the seven and a half in this one. I think that's me yeah maybe hedging my emotions a little bit. I think on seven and a half. Yeah, I think it's going to be a tough game. Like you saw it. yeah Ohio State didn't blow out Penn State. They lost by Oregon to one. They they blew out Indiana, but I think Tennessee is a better team than Indiana. um So yeah, it's just get out of the gates quickly and and yeah, just be more creative in your play calling than you were against Michigan. Yeah, I think that stopping the run like the biggest critique of Nico all season is that he hasn't been able to hit deep passes or big passes with enough consistency. So
01:52:30
Speaker
If you force them out of that running game and and force him to you know make more throws, you make them uncomfortable, that's going to be a big recipe for success for Ohio State. You mentioned starting fast. The Buckeyes are averaging just 6.3 points in the first quarter. The past three games, Ohio State has just scored three total first quarter points. But Tennessee has only scored 24 first quarter points in their last eight games while giving up 30. So if you can start hot,
01:52:58
Speaker
and get the crowd into the game early. I think it'll be huge for Ohio State. um And fall secondary is going to be up for its biggest biggest test of the season. So make them earn it. But I kind of leaned under in this one. As I would say, it sounds like you're liking the under in
12-Team College Football Playoff Excitement
01:53:12
Speaker
this one. I hate it. I hate it. I'm not an under guy. I don't like unders, but it's like my two favorite picks of the weekend is like the under in this game and under in the Clemson, Texas game. It's two really good defenses. Like I didn't really even mention like Tennessee still got an overall like their top 10 in tackles for a loss and overall rush defense. So you got two good defenses. Why wouldn't you lean ah under on a mid to high 40, right? Like it it's not like it's a 41 total. It's 46 and a half you mentioned.
01:53:39
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, so I can see that happening. Yeah, exactly. um But that'll do it for our first round matchup. I'm I am excited. I'm excited for some college football games with big meaning here. I feel like this is usually where we kind of fall into the lull in past years where you're waiting for those early, you know.
01:53:59
Speaker
January, New Year's Day games and you're kind of just getting, you know, meh bowl games right now in the past. Now we're getting like great football the weekend before Christmas.
01:54:10
Speaker
Yeah, I got over my whining from last week about ah where Ohio State was seated and everything. And now the excitement has fully taken over. And yeah, I'm i'm really excited to see how this 12 team playoff works out. I think the entertainment value is going to be off the charts. I love a lot of the matchups. i Like I mentioned before, I don't think the four favorites are going to come out of here unscathed. I think underdogs are going to be live, especially with the points in these matchups. And yeah, I'm just excited. I think it's wide open.
01:54:37
Speaker
And yeah, I'm just excited to see how it all. I love the aspect of the home playoff games the Friday night. um I got a stressful Saturday with the division on the line with the Steelers at fourth. Hitting, man. i went into the why is the night game So it's be a stressful Saturday for your boy. But I mean, no complaints. Pressure pressure makes diamonds in Ohio State and Steelers are finding themselves in high pressure situations. So it's all good. Big, big Saturday for the podcast. But until next week we will come back recap this all for you recap what should be a great weekend in the NFL um Thanks again for supporting and listening to the podcast Until next week Patrick. I'll see ya see ya Damien