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CFP Quarter-Final Recap & NFL Week 18 Preview
27 Plays5 months ago
The Goal Post is back after a short holiday hiatus!
Damien and Patrick start off the show by breaking down the College Football Playoff quarterfinal games: Notre Dame continued to impress in the Sugar Bowl, Ohio State dethroned and dismantled Oregon, Texas narrowly escaped a loss in overtime, and there’s still some questions left to be answered about Penn State.
To finish, the boys broke down what’s at stake in each game with playoff implications in the NFL Week 18 slate: The AFC North is still up for grabs, the Dolphins are clinging on to playoff hopes, there’s some hefty player incentives, and the NFC North is set for a showdown on Sunday Night.
To end the episode, Damien and Patrick do their last week of ‘Goal Post Picks’ for the Season. Damien is 30-21 and is set to take the crown, while Patrick is 23-25 and has a chance to get back to .500 in the final picks of the season.
Enjoy!
Sugar Bowl: 0:00-16:34
Rose Bowl: 16:35 - 28:49
Peach Bowl: 28:50 - 44:06
Fiesta Bowl: 44:12 - 55:04
NFL Week 18 Preview: 55:06 - 1:25:49
NFL Week 18 Picks: 1:25:50 - 1:32:29
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Transcript
Welcome Back and Football Overview
00:00:25
Speaker
All right, welcome back to another episode of The Goalpost. We are back after a little holiday hiatus, had to let the college football catch up. We had some NFL games in between and we have now reached our college football semifinals. We've been through the quarterfinals. We're going to start with a little college football recap here and then get you ready for the last week of the NFL season. I know we said it last week, but I still can't believe we are like all the way 18 weeks through the NFL season already.
00:01:02
Speaker
That like we're we're almost done that the college football is almost done. Everything's just going in the blink of an eye. And, you know, I think the the season kind of took a while to get going a little bit. The storylines took a while to you know start being produced. And then now we're at the end of the finish line. And it's just like what happened in between ah the start of the season and where we are now. But I guess it's it's kind of good because, you know, we've mentioned it. I think we're both done with a decent amount of these NFL football teams.
00:01:31
Speaker
So it'll be nice that we don't have to talk about them and come a week's
College Football Highlights: Notre Dame vs. Georgia
00:01:35
Speaker
time. So I'm i'm excited for the playoffs and just kind of ready to ah to trim some of the fat of the NFL, so to speak. Yeah, big time ah college football has been trimming fat. NFL is about to be done trimming fat. And yeah, just excited to talk like purely good football games and exciting football games with, you know, stakes on the line and and things we actually want to talk about.
00:01:58
Speaker
Um, but we will start in reverse order in the college football quarter finals. We had the delayed sugar bowl. Uh, this episode would have come out today. Uh, well Friday, but we had to wait and or Thursday we had to wait for the the sugar bowl to go down. Um, but it went down last night and the sec is left standing with one team left. And it's the team that most recently joined the conference in Texas as Notre Dame takes down Georgia. 23 to 10. This game pretty much flipped in the blink of an eye. I think it was Notre Dame scored 17 points in the game span of 54 seconds at the end of the first half and the start of the second half. And that was pretty much it. It was a stalemate until then and kind of a stalemate after that. But it was Notre Dame who was able to avoid the big mistakes in this game and play a clean game and come out on top, Patrick.
00:02:57
Speaker
That was it. Damien mistakes and turnovers were the difference in this game. Uh, it's the first half was slow, uh, kind of sloppy football. I thought Georgia looked like the better team actually for most of the first half up until, you know, what you mentioned with that fumble. Uh, and then Notre Dame was able to convert with like 27 seconds left in the first half, then obviously taking the kick return to the house to open up the second half.
00:03:21
Speaker
That was the game. Those two plays were the game. Uh, they were able to, you know, take advantage of that turnover and make it six, seven with the extra point rather than just kick a field goal. But up until that point, like Gunnar Stockton looked in control. He was making throws over the middle of the field. His wide receivers were making some plays for him. Uh, they were just kind of stalling out with some drives.
Analysis of Georgia's Downfall and Notre Dame's Strategy
00:03:43
Speaker
ah kicking field goals Parker Jones hitting the ref on the sideline but for the most part if it was 6-3 Notre Dame at half you had to feel confident if you were Georgia because you were still out playing them you you didn't you know you weren't converting the touchdowns like you would have liked to but you could easily make some halftime adjustments and find yourself winning that game early in the second half and then Kirby man it was kind of the same thing And I got Carson Beck injured. It was the times running out in the second half. It was the sloppiest half of football. You may have played all year long. It's a six, three game. Just run the ball and go to half Kirby, just figure it out from there, reset everything. But instead they get a little aggressive. They try and get points on the board. I don't know what led them to think that they could get points on the board, only having three up to that point. And then you get the fumble and, and then it's, you know, Notre Dame gets the touchdown.
00:04:35
Speaker
And the whole game is just flipped because Kirby and he said it in his halftime interview, they got a little too aggressive there and they didn't know when to take their medicine and just, you know, go to half down six, three and change things, but they got aggressive and that changed the game in the wrong direction for them. It's such a good point because it, it it mirrors.
00:04:53
Speaker
that Carson back injury so clearly you drop up a deep pass on your own 13 yard line when you could have run out the clock all of a sudden that that fumble was like I've never seen less players diving for a fumble on the team that just fumbled it like it was like four Notre Dame guys were on the ball Stockton was still standing up like looking behind him and there wasn't a Georgia offensive lineman to be seen and then you just knew that they were going to convert because Notre Dame couldn't really get to that point in the field. And then once they were in there, you know, Riley Leonard gets his only touchdown pass of the of the day, and that was all he really needed. And then to give up a 98 yard kickoff return to start the second half like I can't think of more deflating things to happen other than the World Junior, the Canadian World Junior team, letting the Czech score. I don't know what it was. Forty two seconds into that game last night. ah Very similar in my mind.
00:05:52
Speaker
um but you're right like that was really the turning point in the game and and it's Kirby smart kind of getting out coached again not a great see I'm sure a season to forget for Kirby like Season to forget in total for the SEC, which is bringing up a lot of different discussions about you know now that NIL has opened up, the SEC has it down here, are those two things correlated? um But this game was mistakes. like This game was a winnable game for Georgia, and they didn't. And that's kind of what i I like about this Notre Dame team, is they seem to not shoot themselves in the foot very often, and they have a great defense, Patrick.
00:06:27
Speaker
Yeah, it's a great quality to have in the in postseason college football, especially more so in college football than pros, because obviously these kids are more prone to make mistakes. So if you can have a well disciplined team with a good defense, like you mentioned, defense travels and not making mistakes is the difference in this game. Like, look at it. If Notre Dame doesn't get those two touchdowns, Georgia wins 10 to nine. Obviously, some things maybe could have happened differently in that.
00:06:53
Speaker
maybe Notre Dame takes that kick out to the 30 and Riley Leonard leads a 70 yard drive and they score a touchdown in that fashion, but we don't know what would have happened. And the Georgia defense as a whole, they look good. They were doing their part. They were stopping. Riley Leonard had less than a hundred passing yards and you lose handle, you lose by two scores with those stat line. That is because of mistakes out coaching. Like you mentioned, the, the sub 11 off Excuse me that when Marcus Freeman the fourth and one inside his own territory subs 11 off Kirby you they could have delayed because you know, the ref is like stopping the ball. You have to allow the defense to sub They were so rushed like they should have just jogged man Let the big boys take their time to get off the field there But instead they were going going going and you know The ref had to pull pull out of there and let them snap the ball with about four or five seconds left on the play clock and
00:07:49
Speaker
and And they jumped. it was I could not believe they jumped. I don't know if they would have snapped the ball. I don't think they would have snapped the ball. But it didn't matter anyway, because once they saw that they jumped, the center knew to snap the ball. And that that was the game. Because if if Georgia gets the ball, probably somewhere around the 30 or 40 of their ah side, you still got seven and change left and you're down 13 points. like that The game wasn't out of reach at that point. But when Notre Dame was able to convert off a Georgia penalty,
00:08:19
Speaker
That was officially game over from that point. Yeah, they had ah first down with seven minutes and 17 seconds to go. Georgia didn't get the ball back until a minute. Forty nine left. So it gave them time to do almost a six minute drive and kill clock. Kirby after the game claimed that he, you know, from my time with SEC officials, I believe that that was illegal.
00:08:42
Speaker
I did some digging and apparently if Notre Dame long snapper touch the ball, it would have been illegal, but he didn't touch the ball. So it was perfectly legal to do so, which is another thing with coaching, like to think that that would have been illegal to then rush your guys onto the field and then to go early. It's just a, a cacophony of, of coaching mistakes and, and easy player mistakes, just not something you're used to with a Georgia, ah Georgia Bulldogs team. Like they for so long have been,
00:09:11
Speaker
you know the beacon of good coaching of discipline players on the field not off the field um and this is just kind of this georgia team this year that they've been undisciplined they have not been their best and and certainly a year to forget for them you're right about their defense their defense really held their own in this game though like for Leonard to have 90 yards passing and you lose this game by two scores I'll say the the plus for Riley Leonard he kept his team alive in the first half with with his feet like he finished with a team high 80 yards rushing
00:09:45
Speaker
A lot of the times when they didn't have anything, he used his feet to kind of make plays out of nowhere. He gets offensive player of the game. And moving forward, you probably need a little bit more of a productive passing game from Riley Leonard, especially against a defensive line like Penn State's.
00:10:02
Speaker
I feel like with any team in this college football playoffs, you kind of burn the tape a little bit from whatever game you won and you just try and get better as you move forward. Really, really interesting matchup moving forward with Notre Dame and Penn State. Yeah, it's survive in advance, it's especially in the college football playoff. You just have to find a way to get another game, just another opportunity to go prove that you can keep winning and win the national championship. And Notre Dame did exactly that. And that's why you go out and you get a guy like Riley Leonard in the transfer portal.
00:10:32
Speaker
He's not perfect, but he's a veteran quarterback and the moment's probably not going
Notre Dame's Future Challenges
00:10:37
Speaker
to be too big for him. And you saw it in that game. He had that one awesome scramble. I think it was like a third and eight where he just jumped over the guy, kind of John Elway asked to get the first down. It was impressive and showed a lot of heart. And he was a huge reason offensively why they won that game. Like you said, he just was extending drives and finding ways to just not turn the ball over, not make a mistake. I got to think Jeremiah Love is still injured from that USC game, the way they used him and the way they used him against Indiana. He basically had the one run.
00:11:09
Speaker
and you never heard from him the rest of the game. So I guess that is something that Notre Dame kind of has to keep an eye on, especially when Riley Mills is the best player on your defensive line. He's out for the rest of the playoffs. So I think they're trying to manage some injuries with Jeremiah Love there. So hopefully he can kind of get more involved against Penn State and then you can have a solidified running game without your quarterback to open up things for Riley Leonard in the passing game. But it doesn't like Notre Dame. It doesn't matter. In a way, that was a perfect game for Notre Dame because they kind of made it ugly.
00:11:38
Speaker
They didn't make the mistakes. They out coach Kirby smart and they came out on top by two score special teams out for perform Georgia's everything that Notre Dame did there while maybe didn didn't pass the eye test. So to speak, they did the right thing and they won every battle they need to their field goal kicker made more field goals than the other. It was just.
00:11:57
Speaker
everything it was small margins but Notre Dame came out on top in basically every single category yeah and and it's a huge benefit and a huge plus to Marcus Freeman like he is a big game coach like we've seen this now a few games in a row where you know they're on a 12 game winning streak to finish the season now and and each time they get a bigger spot he seems to be able to coach his guys to the best of their ability seems to be able to get his guys up for the game um they seem to really be playing for him
00:12:29
Speaker
They open as one and a half point favorites heading into the semifinal against Penn State. um You mentioned Jeremiah Love, like the fact that two of the biggest X-factors in that semifinal game could be coming into the game injured with Jeremiah Love and then Abdul Carter and Penn State, that's going to be a huge storyline to keep an eye on. I think i think Notre Dame versus Ohio State is the he's likely the best matchup for a national championship, which makes me think that this indiana team could finish if they both get to the national championship indiana could have finished the season losing to the two best teams in college football they only lost by 10 georgia lost by 13 it's like it seems every week that that overreaction to indiana seems stupider and stupider by the day yeah man it's
00:13:16
Speaker
the The storylines coming out of the first round of the college football playoff was shame the losing teams instead of giving praise to the winning teams, which makes no sense to me because in any other playoff format, in any other league, you give credit to the team that won, not the team that lost. And guess what?
00:13:33
Speaker
There's blowouts, there's sweeps in just about every other first round ah sport that you can name, especially in in the NFL. We're going to see it in about a week. You think the Steelers against, you know, like the Bills, you think that's going to, I know it's not a matchup that can happen, but it's just a hypothetical of someone might have to go play the Lions in the first round.
00:13:54
Speaker
the Atlanta Falcons or the Buccaneers against the, I don't know, but there's just chaos in all sports. And I think the winning team deserves more credit than like, you know, shaming the losing team. And it's a shame that that was the narrative coming out of the first round because now i think people are Now I think people are starting to give Notre Dame credit, but they weren't originally over ah a gritty win, a dominant win over Indiana. Indiana you know put some makeup on it late, 10 score, 10 point loss, doesn't look as bad as the Georgia game. um But I don't know, I just thought if Indiana
00:14:33
Speaker
has that record. Let's say Nord or Damon Ohio State play. I think Kurt Cignetti is gonna gonna let you know that those were the only two losses. He's gonna get up on the soapbox and just kinda, you know,
00:14:44
Speaker
It's just all kind of recruiting. I would assume from him and he's going to try and make that his pitch and that Indiana was, you know, disrespected. Maybe they were. The issue is we're not going to really know what Indiana was because the only two big games they played all year, they unfortunately lost them. Not saying they didn't belong in the college football playoff, but we just don't really know what Indiana was. Yeah.
Curtis Rourke and NFL Prospects
00:15:05
Speaker
And it came out today. I think that Curtis Rourke was playing the entire season with a torn ACL, which is,
00:15:12
Speaker
So mental to me like it it is what a warrior plus the thumb on his throwing hand like he was he battled through some stuff Hopefully the NFL draft and scouts take that into consideration and and and it boosts his stock rather than hurts it but uh Yeah, and impressively tough performance from Curtis Rourke this year. Absolutely. And I think that while Notre Dame OSU is probably the best matchup, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't begging for Ohio State, Penn State in the finals.
00:15:43
Speaker
just for the takes for the show itself like that is but it's just a dream to me what about texas damon you're counting texas out already come on i am you gotta play the game that you gotta to play the game first i can't get ahead of yourself but uh yeah i mean we'll see what happens i genuinely believe that the four teams left have created for the most fun kind of hypotheticals um big names in college football big brands i think the final four i think the college football committee is very happy with the final four teams that are left yeah and i think you know in one of the final rankings like this was the team's three to six pretty much was ohio state
00:16:25
Speaker
texas Texas Ohio State Penn State and Notre Dame whatever, you know order they were in so it's it really does seem like the four best teams made it especially after the Rose Bowl Ohio State 41 Oregon 21 in the rematch of maybe the best regular season game we had it was on Canadian Thanksgiving Ohio State was up against the big bad undefeated Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl and absolutely lambasted them. They scored on six of their first seven drives. They had four scoring plays longer than 40 yards to take a 34 to nothing lead late into the second quarter. Patrick, how are we feeling after this one? And just as good as I felt after the Tennessee game, it was nice to kind of get
00:17:14
Speaker
get back against Oregon, get that loss avenged. But like it was just it's the same kind of thing that I was saying ah after the Tennessee game. When this Ohio State team plays up to their potential, which they have the past two games, they are the best team in the country. And I think they have proven that to the people. I think some some people kind of, like i like we were just talking about, people were taking away from Tennessee. They thought, you know oh, did they even belong the SEC conference stuff comes up but it's like no you can just give credit to the winning team because you know 41 21 42 17 it's all the same and you know for nor or Oregon sorry undefeated all year long
00:17:56
Speaker
They're two and a half point dogs and the Rose Bowl and they just got blown. It was immediate. It was a minute into the game. Jeremiah Smith goes 40, 45 yards for a score while we're still watching the end of the Arizona state Texas game. I flip it on as ah already. So then I kind of thought, all right, we're in for a bit of a back and forth shootout quickly.
00:18:18
Speaker
quickly did I realize that this was just going to be a one way, uh, good old, good old fashioned clowning, um, in the Rose Bowl. And that's exactly what it was, Damien. It was just dominant on both sides of the ball. Jayden Fielding even started making some field goals. I was very impressed with that. Um, but the most impressive part of it to me, all the credit and all the eyes are going to go to Jeremiah Smith rightfully. So it's the defense. It's the defense. It's Caleb down, just Latham ransom. Yeah, it's eight sacks on a team that has only given up 13 all season long.
00:18:50
Speaker
They're just hitting so hard too. And that that's what I took away from this game is they never gave Oregon a chance to, you know, even respond on the scoreboard. Yeah, that was going to be my next thing that literally the next thing I said, the offense got so much praise in this game it and deservedly. So Howard, ah Buka, Smith, Henderson, they all played fantastic. But this defense man, like it was in their defensive line, like is they're monsters. You're right. Like they hit so hard.
00:19:19
Speaker
The amount of times they got Oregon behind the sticks early in drives and and Oregon was just dying to get like four or five yards on a first down, just completely, completely suffocated in offense that really looked like probably the most complete package other than Ohio State this year with the amount of playmakers that they had in this Oregon offense. And you're right, you sacked Dylan Gabriel eight times in this game, just ridiculous. like it It obviously people have been talking about the first round buys like I think every team that had a first round by is now out of this tournament and Oregon looked to be a team that was not ready whatsoever to get punched in the mouth by Ohio State.
00:20:02
Speaker
yeah like Like we said before this playoff even started, the team that got screwed the most was the Oregon Ducks with the with the rankings, the seedings, everything about the current playoff format. Oregon was on the losing end of of it but by far the most, maybe, because like we said, they were a deserving one seed. There was no argument against them. They beat every team that was in their way. They dominated the big 10 championship, in my opinion, over Penn State, like it was just a convincing win undefeated. They deserve the one seed. And what's the reward, Damien? You have to run it. You have to play a buzzsaw of a team after a buy after you have three, four weeks off. And that's just not a recipe for success for them. They would have loved to have gotten gone to Notre Dame. a Even a Penn, I think any other team, except for Ohio State, Oregon,
00:20:57
Speaker
Is in it or wins, right? I think it's, it's a competitive fight with Oregon against any other team that didn't have a bye. But that's not the reality of this, this playoff. And unfortunately they had to play Ohio state who is peaking at the right time and they just kind of were dominated from the beginning.
00:21:15
Speaker
And I like to say how Russell Wilson looks really small when he gets sacked. Dylan Gabriel looks even smaller when he's when he's just running for his life back there. He's in and then I looked up and he is five, ten and a half. It's it's he's way smaller than I thought. Way smaller. Hell of a career for him. It's it's tough for a guy like that to go out that way. I think he finished most TDs in FBS history, maybe most yards. Like I think they were talking about that in that game. I don't know what the other one was.
00:21:45
Speaker
Definitely most touchdowns, but I guess that that can happen when you're a six-year starter. Dude, and now people are calling for him to be a, people love this quote with NFL draft talk, a riser. They say over the next three months, he'll be a riser in NFL draft talks. And then every NFL draft mock ever just has every player going to the Rams. Like this was another one. Every time I looked there like, yep, Dylan Gabriel, the Rams, you got it.
00:22:11
Speaker
Well, yeah, I guess because there's no direct backup plan for Matthew Stafford. So they think they're going to take shots on these late round quarterbacks. If anything, if there's a rising quarterback throughout this playoff, it's will Howard to me yeah back to three. ah like He was, he was similar to a Riley Leonard to me, where it's just, you're bringing in a veteran quarterback who's got some legs to him and it just works better in the offense than Kyle McCord did with Ohio state.
00:22:39
Speaker
People love to just give Will Howard crap. They love to get on him because I guess they say he's not a big game quarterback or he falters in the biggest moments. Well, his best games this year have come in the biggest moments. First game against Oregon, over 300 yards, had a bit of a brain fart, needed to slide one second earlier, and they would have had a chance to win that game. Last week against Tennessee, over 300 yards, dominant win. This week against Oregon, over 300 yards, dominant win. So he is, to me, not gonna say he's like a, ah he might not even get drafted, but he's gonna get thrown onto an NFL roster, undrafted, late round draft pick,
00:23:17
Speaker
And it's just like that's a guy who's raising his stock. Dylan Gabriel to me has not really raised his stock whatsoever. There's some other quarterbacks ah that I think are raising their stock as well. Jackson Dart is a guy no one really likes to talk about. I think he's been playing excellent football lately. So it's I don't understand ah exactly where everyone lies. I haven't checked out a ton of mock drafts yet where ah the quarterbacks are ranked. But in a ah weak quarterback class,
00:23:43
Speaker
why not take a shot on a guy like will howard a jackson dart i think you stay away from the smaller guys like dylan gabriel but i mean will edwardwards got the nfl body give him a shot yeah and that was the thing i had written down the more big games will howard plays in the better he's goingnna get like that is something that he has shown Is a huge strength I think for this team like the more big spots He has the better he's gonna get and the more he's gonna peek kind of going into the right time of the season here You have big play receivers Literally as far as the eye can see that is the most confidence inspiring thing available to a quarterback in his position especially going up against a defense like Texas to know that you can rely on those guys
00:24:26
Speaker
And I think that it it just plays into a bigger point where I feel like with the Michigan loss, it positioned Ohio State in a perfect spot to be underdogs in this college football playoff, which is insane to say about a Buckeyes team with this much talent. But no matter how much mental fortitude has, a team has, no matter how much game planning, every single team they play or have played in this college football playoff,
00:24:53
Speaker
will be thinking while they lost to Michigan, how good can they really be? And I think that will be a strength the entire way, especially going up against a Texas team who beat Michigan very handedly this year. Yeah, I think this is what everyone was looking for right in this in this college football playoff, just a lovable underdog story.
00:25:12
Speaker
ah from the Ohio State Buckeyes the eighth seed the eighth seed they they almost they're barely hosting a home playoff game to start the year a huge upset win over Tennessee you know no one was giving them a chance the Tennessee takeover 30,000 plus fans in the stands from Tennessee they win that one then there's more doubts Oregon already beat him again beat him before they'll do it again nope It's just, it's a great underdog story, Damien. And I don't know why and no everyone's not getting behind the Buckeyes, man. The 8C, this is what you love. It's like March Madness, and just a team going on a run, getting hot at the right time. And it's, who would have thought? Like it just, I love it. I love it. It's outrageous. The look ahead line originally for them against Texas was one and a half points. That is now shifted up to five points higher, as high as six and a half in some books.
00:26:03
Speaker
I love this spot for Ohio State regardless of where this game is the fact that the Cotton Bowl is in Texas I think benefits Texas, but I don't care if they played this game in space Like I think I still love the the Buckeyes in this game again, like you said earlier got to play the game You can't get ahead of yourself early um but finishing thoughts on Oregon the big game allegations are still haunting the Oregon Ducks like this was you know, I that I don't think it completely ruins their Big Ten debut, their their breakthrough here. But for the next 10 years, this is going to be something that will loom as like a missed opportunity if you're an Oregon Ducks fan. One hundred percent. And I think Dan Lanning is like one more big game loss away from like the honeymoon is still going on with Dan Lanning. And I agree with it. I don't think Dan Lanning should get, you know,
00:26:56
Speaker
And he hate against him. I, it is what it is. He ran into a buzzsaw of a team. The bracket broke horribly for their team, blah, blah, blah, but he didn't make excuses and I'll give that crowd, give him credit for it. But Oregon's game plan is just recruit an old quarterback in the transfer portal and hopefully they gel together and hopefully we can win games.
00:27:17
Speaker
Well, I think they got to start developing quarterbacks, Damon, and Quinn, who is like, we'll get to that game. He's probably going to go to the transfer portal instead of the draft. I would, I would assume you're seeing some of the numbers that are flying around out there. Oregon's probably the destination for him if I had to guess. So it's just, they're going to run the same script over and over again. And if it keeps you know failing, I guess it's tough, right? Because you go 13 and 0, you're the one seed, big 10 champion first year in the conference.
00:27:46
Speaker
is that as ah yeah it's not a failure of a season to me, but at the same time it's not a success. So I guess Dan Lanning's like, he's just kind of in an in-between spot, similar to where ah ah Ryan Day was James Franklin. He needs to find a way to get to that next tier of a team, ah and of a school, and as a coach, ah then I think he'll be put into like the ultimate respect he just needs a national championship he needs a playoff win but I don't think you can keep running back this same you know system that they're running with just bow neck still in Gabriel who whoever it's gonna be next year because I don't believe that there's a quarterback in their room that like
00:28:28
Speaker
I could be eating my words for this, but I just don't think the talent level in their quarterback room right now is sustainable to put them in the same spot that they were this past season. No, and I think you're right about yours. I think they, them and and Nike are going to throw a bag at Quinn Ures. Some of the numbers are just ridiculous that are going around um with how much he might get in n NIL money. um But speaking of Quinn Ures, we will go to the Peach Bowl.
00:28:55
Speaker
Texas gap and upset thirty nine to thirty one still manages to cover this game which was ridiculous i no no they covered my my little alternate oh was it was the original and eighteen and a half points arizona state cup wow good for arizona state then um this was a game it shut up the calling cowards of the world your nick writes to have an incredible 12 team playoff game this was like really the first one that like blew your socks off and it was a wild ride similar to oregon and boisey state another team that had a buy absolutely laid a dud to start this game um they didn't to finish this game in arizona state and you almost like
00:29:38
Speaker
you almost have to do this game in reverse instead of like talking about it from start to finish because Arizona State came out very very flat and then you know Texas by the end of the third quarter had a 17 to 8 lead even though Arizona had been out gaining them had held the ball almost three times longer than Texas had and then OT ot was just chaos like it it Before OT, we have the targeting call like it's getting down to the end of the the game here. Arizona State rallies back with two late touchdowns and two two point conversions just to absolutely make things or sorry, they were up 24 to eight and then they came back in this one. I almost want to start. I'm all over the place here. We'll start with Cam Scadibo because Cam Scadibo early in this game was all over the place like he couldn't get anything running, couldn't get anything going.
00:30:34
Speaker
And then by the second half, he was doing everything. And you mentioned a couple weeks ago when we talked about scat about being an NFL running back. Did you see him getting oxygen on the sidelines? And I was like, no, I don't really remember that. That was front and center in this game. Like you were not kidding about that.
00:30:50
Speaker
Yeah. And it's not to take away from his talent. He's a, he's got elite talent. His ability to, you know, make an impact on games is something that, you know, not everyone has. And it's extremely impressive. And in his biggest moment, he had one of his best games of the season. He just cannot be an every down back in the NFL. It's, it's physically impossible the way he is currently built. Um, he, and he bought taken, he lost 15 pounds over the off season. and And I'm not trying to fat shame because he's not fat, but it's just his stamina, his cardio has to get better. And that's the reason why, you know, Genti's getting these first round looks, uh, Caleb Johnson, and I was going to get first round looks in the, in the running back position, guys like trade on Henderson. And my, I know he's got some injury problems, but he's probably going to go ahead of him in the draft is I got Scott. It was like a third, fourth round guy. Uh, I'm not an NFL draft scout. So take that for what it's worth. He has talent.
00:31:47
Speaker
And he is a gamer like the, I don't like to throw that term around, but he's a guy who has absolutely deserved that label. And I mean, just look, we got, we, we got to read these stat lines. So he's got, he runs 30 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
00:32:03
Speaker
He makes the biggest reception in the game for and he finishes with eight receptions for 99 yards And then he throws one when Arizona State was all but dead in that game flip the momentum 42 yard throwing touchdown What impossible what a game he gets play offensive player of the game on the losing team ah just an incredible performance from him and Yeah, it's the puking was a tough luck. I'm not gonna lie for that. But at least he backed it up with his play on the field Yeah, well, he was on a Dan Patrick show yesterday and he said he had a sketchy breakfast sandwich in the morning a sketchy croissant breakfast sandwich Which was why he was puking
00:32:43
Speaker
and I don't know. Maybe he was playing possum. Maybe he was just trying to throw him off there thinking Scaboo's out of the game. he's he's not He doesn't have what it takes. And then right when you know they're starting to doubt him, he hits him over the top with a 42 yard pass. I just couldn't believe that play. It was like a Taysom Hill type of game with the amount of different stats he was racking up in that game. I'm going to think about that Taysom Hill. we We talked about it like a month ago, that game he had against the Browns where he had like 600 yards by himself.
00:33:11
Speaker
um Very similar to that part of me thought he almost should have been like checked for a concussion Like when he started throwing up I was like alright man like he's like it's half an oxygen. He's throwing up like he looks a bit dizzy ah Yeah, you just don't it's weird to see because you just don't see that type of like conditioning problems in athletes that are at this high of a level very often so that just stands out and Very starkly. The other thing was going into OT the targeting call Levitt hit Stovall and then it like a clear as day targeting call that doesn't get flagged There was a minute and four left. It would have put them right into Texas territory This use kicker makes that kick which was not a definite with how much kickers in general were missing in this game um the games over before over time even starts and
00:33:59
Speaker
I think the correct take on targeting is whether you like the rule or not It's firmly in college football and if it's firmly in college football Then you have to call it on a play that has pretty much all the requirements of the hit defenseless receiver It looked like it might have not been exactly crown to crown But like it was pretty damn close to being crown to crown and the guy's like lying like dead on the field after it So we're gonna have a discussion but because stock I, in no world to me, and I said it in live time, that in no world is a targeting call it to me. Because first off, what is a defenseless receiver? Because he's got the ball. You're in play. You're supposed to be tackled. Here's the defenseless players to me in in in football. what What the Texas receiver got his head taken off when the ball hit the ground. That was a defenseless receiver that got hit to the head. That's not targeting. So now you've set a precedent in the game.
00:34:56
Speaker
and a defenseless receiver, you're going out of bounds, that is defenseless to me. A quarterback, a second or more after he releases the ball, that is defenseless to me. When you're in the middle of the field and you catch a ball, how are you def defenseless? Blindside, that's another one that could be. That's what I kind of thought it was a blind, I don't know, it was a hospital, yeah. Exactly. So why is maybe the quarterback should take more responsibility for that?
00:35:19
Speaker
And like you said, it was face mask on face mask. He didn't launch and it wasn't the crown on the helmet. There's a car on the helmet. Absolutely. I'm with you. And it was close. It was close. And another thing is that shouldn't decide that game. I don't, I just don't think it should. And I agree because they call it, they call it willy nilly in the regular season. I agree with you on that. They have, they are absolute hypocrites with the way they call the rule. You'll see guys getting kicked out for.
00:35:45
Speaker
ah Like hitting guys in the chest and you go how is that targeting and you're getting kicked out of games I hate that stuff too I absolutely hate it I think targeting is a subjective rule. Well, it's they treat it like it's a subjective rule when you have legitimate guidelines of what the rule is and For me, they really need to change what defenseless receivers, because that's not defenseless. it's It's the same. It's like in hockey, when you take a pass in neutral zone, or you just, you just, you can't touch me because I'm defenseless. so Even though the puck's on my stick, and you catch the ball, you have to be prepared to get hit. And it's not even the receiver's fault. It's not, man, because that pass, and was it, I didn't, I guess I didn't look into it, was it tipped?
00:36:28
Speaker
I know that does nothing to do with the targeting. I think it was. admit Yeah, it that that is, you know, stuff to do with like past interference that doesn't have anything to do with like actual targeting rules. But she's like, what do you want that safety to do? I know that he went to rap. He went face mask on face mask. And it's just like to me, the safety didn't know there was no intent to injure. He didn't launch. And like I said, the text Isaiah Bond.
00:36:51
Speaker
The pass goes over his head and the the Arizona State safety comes in with a shoulder to his helmet when the ball's hitting the ground. That's a defenseless receiver. So to me, I mean, I understand people are up in arms about it and this is going to be a contrarian take, but I just don't. Yeah, there's no way for me that the game can end in that fashion. And I agree with you there for sure. I don't think that game should have been decided by a call like that with how good of a game it was like that needed to be settled on the field.
00:37:21
Speaker
back and back and forth like it like we got in overtime. The the thing i I struggle with is like, if refs are so trigger happy with it, I can't believe that they like, with how fast these plays happen, I was more shocked that they didn't call it like, you see these plays in slow motion, and then you realize, okay, it was face mask to face mask, but I was more shocked that the refs didn't see that hit and call it how it went down on the field.
00:37:48
Speaker
especially with how the receiver was basically, you know, he looked yes cold in the moment. Right. So, yeah, that so that kind of set up a whole lot of takes on the timeline. um But over time, I think ASU had the longest overtime drive I've ever seen with that. for It just would not end like it was like 12 minutes long. Finest finally finishes with Scadabo punching it in, gives them their first lead of the game. And then the defense like looks like they finally have bottled Texas up.
00:38:17
Speaker
they get them down to a freaking fourth and 13 play and Quinn Ewers like I did we will say he floats balls the balls on Quinn Ewers to throw that pass or or even the balls on the coaches to draw that up on fourth and 13 to hit a 28 yard touchdown pass that was incredible Yes, Quinn Ewers, for as much as you want to take away from him, you have to give him credit when credit is due. And he made the biggest play of the game when he had to the most. And then he follows it up. They get the ball right back. One play, Gunner Helm, 25-yard touchdown. And then you know Arizona State just couldn't score on their second drive. Quinn Ewers stepped up when he was called upon the most in this game. And you have to give him credit for that. And that's what you want out of a quarterback like Quinn.
00:39:02
Speaker
it wasn't perfect It was far from perfect after that first quarter. The first quarter looked really good from Texas. I thought they were going to blow them out. you know They're bigger, faster, stronger, everything. They just look like a pro team playing a you know the Cleveland Browns without Deshaun Watson back in the day, like when they're really bad.
00:39:19
Speaker
and i was just i was just okay arizona states just kind of chipping away chipping away quinn's floating balls quinn floats a ball to lead this lead them to overtime with that interception brian auburn misses to field goals to possibly win the game so texas is doing everything in their ability to not win this game and send it to overtime But then when it got to overtime, Quinn stepped up, made some big plays, even when it looked like it was gone on that fourth down. I thought there was no chance that they were converting, let him alone getting a touchdown on that play. So I will give Quinn, it was credit for that. Uh, but overall my takeaway was just the playoff needed a game like this. bad we didn and it It was ugly at the start, but like I said, it was 24 eight, but then credit to, uh, Kenny Dillingham as well, man, it was, he was not scared. The coaching wise, the fake punt.
00:40:11
Speaker
everything about it, scab with throwing touchdowns. Signeti's a coward. um The Boise State head coach, I can't, I'm not i'm losing his name. The guy who just shouted out Jesus in every interview, maybe call a trick play, dude. It's it's insane to me that these coaches are going into games as double digit underdogs and they're calling games scared. Go out, it's your last game. Go out and win it, man, because like I don't know. It's just if you if Arizona State punts in that situation instead of faking it, it's probably game over anyway. So why not just go and try and extend the drive and steal possession from them? And they did it and it led them to have an opportunity to win this game as a double digit underdog. And I think a lot of coaches could take some notes from how Kenny Dillingham called that game. Danielson is the Boise State head coach. And yeah, he did coach like a coward in that game, especially late when they were just trying to get gente the the record.
00:41:04
Speaker
I dealing hand was so impressive the amount of second half adjustments he made like that is where you see having a great head coach pays off and their ability to bounce back and snap back in that game um for Texas like the thing I took away with Texas in this game is yes is I was impressed with yours being able to kind of rise to the occasion like that and But to me, Texas has problems. like that That much is clear. To have a 24 to 8 lead with just over 10 minutes remaining and end up in double OT, something's wrong. like The kicking, the corner play deteriorated rapidly in that game. Their finishing ability on offense just kind of withered away until overtime. All of those things will bite them in the ass in a semifinal game. And it's a very good Ohio State team. And I think that...
00:41:57
Speaker
You're not playing Arizona State anymore. like As good as Arizona State was, all the three teams left in the playoffs, um aside from you, are that much better. And there's just something there with this Texas team that's kind of been lingering really since the SEC Championship that it's like, are they going to rise to the occasion? i just I don't know. Well, the big thing in the SEC Championship game is like you're watching them. They're going up and down the field.
00:42:23
Speaker
And then it's, it's, what was it? Six, three at half. It was the same thing. It was just, how was this game close? Because you're not finishing drives. Not to the same extent in this game, but it was the same kind of feeling where I was like, they're going to blow them out. This in the first quarter, second quarter, second quarter is when I started to realize I'm like, this score isn't ah even as close to as big as I thought it was, or it should be because they can't convert. And then it's always just one mistake or a pre-snap penalty on a third and short makes it to a third and medium, third and long. It's little mistakes. And then Sark, Sark making it all about himself on that kick.
00:42:59
Speaker
it's it Texas is a bit I don't know what it is you're right though there's something old just a little bit off with this team and you can get away with it against Arizona State even if it was as ugly as it was not even just Ohio State. I don't think you can get away with that against Notre Dame or Penn State if you play one of those teams in the national championship. So they got about a week to figure it out. And I think there's just more than like one or two adjustments. I think they got a lot of fixing to do, maybe mixing some arch manning. Like you did it in the SEC championship. It worked for you for a little bit. And then you just, it's gone. Like you just not, you don't even see them take a step, maybe even a fake.
00:43:38
Speaker
You just bring them out there as a decoy. They're just doing nothing kind of creative. And like you said, their defense just kind of deteriorated in the second half. Yeah, even the broadcast was shocked that arch manning wasn't seeing the field at all. um That was something like we mentioned so long ago going into the SEC championship. And you're right, they've just completely shut that off. Maybe that's their like trick in the hat, the rabbit in the hat going into a semifinal game here, but Again, to to then throw Arch Manning, who hasn't played in like a month against this Ohio State defensive line, is like certainly a choice. um But we will get to the final quarterfinal game here. It was the first one on New Year's Eve, the Fiesta Bowl, Penn State 31, Boise State 14. Boise State went out pretty sad in this game, I would say, and and very, very similar to the SMU game against Penn State.
00:44:30
Speaker
for Boise to go down the field with pace and come up short, not only in missing a touchdown opportunity, but to miss that field goal off of the opening drive like that to me felt like such a bad omen like it was one of those things where you could just feel it it was like oh that's not good man and then right after that penn state goes out to a 14 nothing lead like immediately dude in the fashion that he missed the kick in it was arguably the worst kick i've ever seen it wasn't blocked i know i
00:45:03
Speaker
When I saw it, I go, that had to have been tipped, or it had to have been a horrible hold. Something went wrong there. Then they show the slow-mo replay. Snaps good, holds good, laces out, no tip. It was...
00:45:16
Speaker
It was the biggest snap hook I've ever seen. And i and and that's why I'm missing golf. I do it all the time. It's crazy that that, like you said, it was just foreshadowing. It was an omen. And it was exactly like what we thought after that. It was Penn State dominated. They should have gone up 21 nothing. um But for some reason, they wanted to run tempo when you're dominating a team like that. It made no sense. Slow the game down, just kill the game. But they like,
00:45:44
Speaker
Penn State credit to you. You dominated that game, Boise State, you covered a spread too. The play calling, the play calling, especially on third downs, third and shorts, you're running the ball all over them. They can't stop Katron Allen. It was insane what he was doing. Anything he wanted he was getting and then Cole Necky's drawing up these trick plays on third and short and going tempo. It's, it makes no sense. And he's trying to get cute in games where it's like, why are you getting cute, dude? You have to go out and win these games. It's not like you're, well, it's an elimination game and you're you like, it's, you're playing like it's a pre-season week one. Like you're playing the max school. Like you have to, you have to win these games and you're getting way too cute. It was crazy to me. Like that was.
00:46:28
Speaker
And if it wasn't for that, like we would be leaving this game talking about Penn State like way higher than than they we are right now. Like they go and dominate that game and put 45 on them and, you know, really dry out clock and be smart on third downs. Then it's like this is a team that could win a national championship. Now the doubt to me has creeped into Penn State where it's like,
00:46:52
Speaker
Do I trust this offense not to be stupid in a big game? And and Drew Allard played better, like 13 for 25, 171, three touchdowns. I think it's so clear that Tyler Warren is like the best player other than Abdul Carter on this team. He is like a true, true game breaker. Like he gets two touchdowns in the first half. They just didn't have an answer for him at all. And it's like,
00:47:16
Speaker
Why don't you just keep going to him? Like it's like the the simple things here in this game. Keep going to your running backs. Keep going to your tight end who is looking like Brock Bowers in this game. They just didn't seem to like play onto their strengths that way. I'm not sure why. yeah I'm still scratching my head about it kind of.
00:47:34
Speaker
And and you you think back to that Ohio State game too, especially on that fourth and goal that they played. They're throwing linemen out as wide receivers and then and like you don't get it. And then Ohio State drives the field and and you lose and you don't have any offensive touchdowns in that game. Their one big game that they did perform in wasn't against Oregon, but you were playing from behind the entire game. Like the game, you couldn't even think of a game plan. You had to throw the ball to just try and keep up in that game.
00:48:00
Speaker
It's worrying. It's worrying for Penn State because if you see I am both ways on this because I think it's worrying what I'm seeing about Penn State. It's not great. But then at the same time, you could say they threw two games in the playoff. They have not played their best game and they've covered the spreads both times and won by, you know, 20 plus and both. It's.
00:48:20
Speaker
I go back and forth on Penn State, man, but you against Notre Dame, you cannot get cute because that's going to be the best team far in a way that you've played in in this ah playoff. And it it could be a reality check because Notre Dame again, the end is better than SMU and Boise State to me. So I think Notre Dame is just a much more battle tested team up to this point in the playoff and Penn State is going to have to come out there and prove it. And I think just simplify the game plan a little bit. Yeah. And, and with,
00:48:49
Speaker
What we talked about with Notre Dame earlier and that they don't make mistakes often and they play very clean games. Part of the reason they won this game like early was they they won the turnover battle four to one. Like they made Genty fumble a couple of times. They picked off Madsen three times. And that's just not going to happen against Notre Dame. Like it's just not. And the strength of this team is clearly their defense. Defense wins championships, but it's really the offense that you're left asking questions with in this game like I know I know the Penn State defense is going to show up to that big game against Notre Dame I know they're gonna do all they can to make Riley Leonard's life hell but is this Penn State offense gonna be able to take on a Notre Dame defense that has also looked incredible like really really more
00:49:37
Speaker
of this game came out with me asking questions, not about Boise State because i i everyone knew they were outmatched in this game going in. Everyone knew Maddox Madsen was probably the worst quarterback in the playoff. it's really Penn State should have won this game by even more. Yeah, that's what I mean. They're just they're just leaving more to be desired. It's just everything about them. You just watch and you go,
00:50:02
Speaker
this could be better everything about this could be better and i don't know i guess you shouldn't apologize for winning and covering spreads ah but it's just to me like i know what we'll get into previewing in the the next week slate games the semifinals i've already bet the under in that ah penn state norre dame game i just saying it's see me two defenses clashing head on head and like you said i cliche but turnover battle in that game is gonna be more important than the the Ohio State Texas game because I think there's more high-powered offenses in that game you can kind of make up a possession or two whereas in this Notre Dame Penn State game man it's gonna be a grudge match and i'm I'm excited for it though because that's kind of what you want in a semifinal game it's just like I don't know who's gonna win but I think it's just gonna be a pure war out there and I'm excited for it
00:50:47
Speaker
It's almost perfect. Like we have one game with a ton of offense and then one game that should just be like a defensive grudge match in both semifinals. um The last thing from this game, the elephant in the room, Genty was completely bottled up. And I think that part of that or or I think most of it was how well the Penn State defense game plan for him and how well they played against him still went for 104 yards. But the box score really wouldn't tell you this story. Like he kind of had to watch this game. He couldn't break the big one.
00:51:16
Speaker
He had stacked boxes like he was dying for every single yard He got in this game and the Penn State defense knew exactly how to play it Yeah, 30 rushes 104 yards averaging three and a half yards per carry Probably his worst outline of the year, but I'm not going to take away from Genty because I think it's but how Penn State played him was the ultimate sign of respect, where it's like we are overloading the box and we are going to make Maddox Madsen beat us and he couldn't. And it was a proper game plan on the defensive side of the ball from Penn State.
00:51:50
Speaker
damn shame Abdul Carter like I don't they haven't they've been pretty yeah coy about his injury status haven't really given us a lot of thought Abdul Carter's posting ah you might know better than I the Darth Vader in the chamber yeah a picture I don't exactly know what that means but I think that's got to be some subtle foreshadowing that he's gonna be ready to play ah or at least strap strap the helmet on and I don't know his health percentage but it looks like he's gonna play but uh keep an eye out for that over this next coming week That fires me up because in a world now where guys opt out of bowl games and guys, you know, are really prepping themselves for the NFL draft. This guy's like, I know I'm good enough to be drafted in the top eight of this NFL draft. So I'm going to go out there and strap on the helmet and I don't really give a fuck. I'm going to go try and win a national championship.
00:52:39
Speaker
Yeah. And it's clearly not an injury. That's, you know, of concern. I guess you can say like a lingering thing or a major tear. Cause the fact that we're even talking about him possibly playing means that, yeah, it's probably minor, like a week to week thing. But yeah, this gives it's like a Curtis Rourke, like your toughness should be, uh, rewarded in the draft stock and not, you know, taken away from you. He's going to be so good in the NFL. Like there's a couple of guys you see in college every year.
00:53:06
Speaker
And that NFL mock draft episode we did was like one of my favorite episodes. I think we've ever done. And the amount of guys that out of that first round, like it's looking to be like an all time first round of the NFL draft from this past year.
00:53:20
Speaker
but Yeah, it feels like everyone has hit and then the guys who aren't they're like injured so you don't really know yet ah The quarterback it's just insane the quarterbacks coming out of last year's draft ah just insanely impressive And we still don't even know what JJ McCarthy is like he's probably gonna be one of the hottest names on the market in the offseason a lot of exciting young talent coming into the NFL and it comes from the NCAA so More people should watch the NCAA in Canada, as well as youth sports and CFL. Just watch all the football because you're getting players. ah The Bills are working out Tyrell Ford. Yeah, he got a couple. I think the Saints worked him out, too. I think the Browns worked him out. I think it all signs are pointing. Little CFL talk here. I think all signs are pointing to him leaving the bombers. And like, even if he ends up on a practice squad, like, I think he's going to leave the CFL, which sucks. But you love to see it.
00:54:13
Speaker
Yeah, you loved it. They have so many off season names that if you lose a guy to the NFL, that's almost like you don't lose them. You know what? Cause you're not, no one in the, uh, sorry, no other CFL team has them. So at least it's not like you lost them to someone else. You lost them to ah a different league, which I guess in a way is good for your team. Yeah. Um, and that'll do it for our college recap here.
00:54:35
Speaker
Like Patrick mentioned, we will preview the semifinals very, very excited here. I think we're, I think we're going to have three great games, like head both semifinals and then whoever ends up in the national fight championship. Like I think we are so primed for great football here. We have four great teams left. Uh, and I'm excited for it. Um, but that will move us. You got anything else?
00:54:58
Speaker
I'm good. I mean, all good. Very happy of how that how the how the quarterfinals went, especially the Rose Bowl. Very happy. But that'll move us into our NFL week 18 preview, kind of a reverse of what we do after the weeks where we say, what do we learn this week? It's what's at stake. That's that's the big thing on everybody's minds going into this week 18. What games do I have to watch? What games can I completely not watch and and trim the fat?
00:55:29
Speaker
And it all starts in the AFC North on Saturday with the AFC North sweepstakes here. um We got the Ravens and the Steelers battling for the AFC North, man. And Ravens are 11 and 6. The Steelers are 10 and 7. The Ravens need a win or tie or a Steelers loss. The Steelers need a Ravens loss and a win versus Cincinnati. ah The only thing like to start this, the thing that keeps sticking in my mind here is that Steelers lost to the Browns in week 12. The snowball game that is really coming back to bite them.
00:56:04
Speaker
yeah I guess, but the Ravens lost to the Browns too. yeah just like it Just that late in the season, like i'll I'll spot the Steelers losing against three teams that are in like the upper echelon of the NFL this late in the season. It's like, okay, those teams are battle tested. Those teams are great. and it's It's that loss that's sticking in my mind.
00:56:26
Speaker
Yeah, there's there's losses, you know, kind of, their outlaw I'll call them an outlier loss. ah the this The stretch of the three games in 11 days was the worst like football I've seen from the Steelers in years and it was horrible to watch and it just leaves a bad taste in your mouth where it's like, you could have won one of those games. That's all you had to do, win one of them and then you beat the Bengals and you get the division where now you're, you're your division hopes lie in the hands of Bailey Zappi and the 19 and a half point underdog Cleveland Browns on the road against the Ravens. So things are not looking good to win the division, but I guess the Browns have beat the Ravens already this year. So why not do it again? Um, but I mean, the Steelers just have to take care of their own business, but I just can't believe they're putting the Browns Bengals in a, in a standalone game on Saturday afternoon. It's shocking to me. Same here. That's going to be disgusting. Like,
00:57:21
Speaker
that we'll get to our picks later but like the spread is insane on that Browns game and I'm like why wouldn't it be the Dolphins just beat them with Tyler Huntley by like 16 or whatever it was. I think Bailey Zappi might be ah an upgrade from DTR because DTR is average he's put up like 32 career points.
00:57:41
Speaker
in in every start like combined. It's it's horrible. he He cannot win a football game. I've seen Bayley Zappi win a football game. So that that's that's what I'm saying. I think they've upgraded. Yeah, it's ah the ghost of Bayley Zappi is coming back to haunt our friend of the program, Jake Shulls. That's his boy. ah But yeah, it's ah now the Ravens just get a fully dejected Browns team. I think the real shame is that the Steelers now have to face a Bengals team that has ripped off four straight wins and is buzzing on offense I think however though it could work out in the Steelers favor because if They aren't you know the division winner they might be able to play this AFC South division winner in the Texans
00:58:24
Speaker
instead of the Chargers, Chargers are currently in the six seed. They can move up to the five seed with a win or a Steelers loss. So there is some, some serious motivation, even aside from winning the division for the Steelers. I think it's win and Steelers loss because the Steelers have the tiebreaker over them with the head to head. So yeah, it's Steelers control their own destiny. I think everyone in the world would love to play the Texans in that first round matchup.
00:58:50
Speaker
But at the same time, I think the Steelers playing the Ravens, I could talk myself into that one too. It's the bills that the Steelers had to avoid. And thankfully they're in a position that they, the only time that they would play them is the AFC championship, unless there's another upset in the playoffs. I guess if the Chargers win or whoever gets that seven seed, they'll play the Chiefs in the next round. And if the Steelers were able to win, then't then they would play the bills.
00:59:15
Speaker
and that's the Steelers and Bills games man you might as well not even watch them that's one team that they they just have their number and it's just a clowning every single time but yeah i mean the Bengals Steelers that is the game because there's stakes on both sides everybody's health or everyone is playing that is healthy And I mean, the Bengals are hot. They're Joe Burrows just throwing the ball over the yard. Steelers are as bad as they've looked all season. So it's kind of a tale of two different teams right now. One's peaking. One's trending very much downward. Can the Steelers rise up from the dead? Damien, like Ohio State, get up off the mat, win a division game, make a statement, claim the five seed. And then I think you'd be favored over the Texans. I could be wrong about that.
01:00:00
Speaker
but that's what they have to do. I think the motivation, I think the nice extended break after they they played three games in 11 days, now they have 10 days off. it's It's a weird league, um but I think they'll take advantage of it. Hopefully everyone's healthy and they just go out there and give it a good fight. Last time these two teams played, I mean the Steelers put up freaking 40 plus points. It was impressive to watch, so.
01:00:24
Speaker
that's what confuses me about people being like oh the chiefs don't want the bangles to make the playoffs it's like this bangles team really like it's like the team that has but has allowed a zillion points a game for the entire season and their defense is trash awful like that through the Chiefs are scared of like yeah No, no one is scared of the Bengals. No one should be scared of the Bengals. I think Joe burrows a great quarterback I think their offense is good, but I think you can absolutely I think any team in the playoffs could beat the Bengals on the AFC side Exactly speaking of the Bengals
01:00:57
Speaker
They still have a chance they need the win over the Steelers and then also need a Broncos loss and a Dolphins loss or tie the Dolphins have the tiebreaker on them because of AFC record. um They are currently around a 6% chance of all of those things happening.
01:01:14
Speaker
Same deal for the Dolphins, extremely low chance. ah I mean the fact that the Broncos are favored by ten and a half points in that game and Carson Wentz is starting. I think weirdly enough the most Dolphins thing ever would be the Broncos to lose that game and then the Dolphins lose to the Jets and then and then somehow the Bengals are the ones that sneak in. But I don't know if this is just my Dolphins brain speaking. I weirdly think Mid Broncos are different I think the Broncos would have a better chance but like of the teams I think the Dolphins have the best chance to beat the bills simply because it's a division game like if they were to sneak into that spot we lost by a 61-yard field goal to them last time weirdly enough I think that if there is a team that could give the bills a first-round exit it's probably the Dolphins
01:02:02
Speaker
Well, that's how I can talk myself into the Steelers beating the Ravens if they match up in the first. Exactly. Vision rivals, they know each other so well. ah Obviously, if the Dolphins do sneak in and they do play the Bills, you're going to have to deal with all those cold weather takes again, which is just, though i I feel for you, man. I feel for you. Didn't they win in cold weather not too long ago? Like a dominant win?
01:02:25
Speaker
For I mean the Browns it was outside in that game. Yeah, like yeah and only a quarterback exactly I get it was the Browns but the Dolphins had their backup quarterback in they sent a message yeah Everyone was quiet after that Hey, man, ah like I know the Dolphins are I guess one and a half point underdogs Which probably means two is not playing if I had to guess it's been radio silence, which is not a great just a bad look man like yeah it is at least it's not his it's not his head though but it's if the if two was playing and the dolphins are underdogs that is my mortal lock uh in this one because the jets are a dead team so at least you have that going for you like they're not going to get up off the mat erin rogers doesn't want to play in this game he's probably just going to throw it to devante adams a million times
01:03:11
Speaker
well said To go Mike McDaniel doesn't expect to attack of Iowa to play the Jets another one from bleacher report 16 minutes ago Very unlikely to play amid NFL playoff push that fucking sucks Yeah, that is that is nightmare news for you ah at the same time. It's the Jets Jets team and so that's that's what you got going for you And here's my thing with the the Broncos Can't you just like talk yourself into just being like the Chiefs just have to win a game? I know it's Carson Wentz, but it's no better team to be like, I just need this team to win a game. And it just happens to be the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah. I get it's Carson Wentz, but I think, uh, you know, I think 10 and a half points.
01:03:53
Speaker
is a lot in a matchup like that. I think, I think Carson Wentz is in a horrible quarterback. I think he has talent left in that, in that body of his. And yeah, I like, you're not dead. You got better chances than the Bengals do. The Bengals are a team where it's like, we need everything to fall our way. You just need one, what one thing to fall your way and then you handle your own business and then you can get into the playoffs. So there's still, there's still some hope. I don't know what the percentages are on there, but you have more hope than Bengals do.
01:04:21
Speaker
Yeah, it's ah I think the Chiefs are also going to rest Chris Jones, Pacheco, and Juwan Taylor. like It's not so just Mahomes, which is the thing. but and Chris Jones didn't play against the Steelers. That didn't seem to matter too much. they also had They're not running the ball that well either. It's like Pacheco, Cream Hunt. it's all Listen, just talk all you have to do to tell yourself the spin zone, the Chiefs just have to win a game. That's all you have to tell yourself. And the Broncos have been spiraling. They have not done well against teams that are above 500 pretty much this season. More than anything, like I think they will call punch their ticket, but more than anything, they need to get back into their own flow in this game. And before having to go to Buffalo in the cold and play the Bills in the wild card, that will not be fun for this Broncos team or Bo Nicks.
01:05:10
Speaker
No, but I mean the Broncos are just happy if they make the playoffs. so It would be a hell of a turnaround. You have your quarterback of the future. Sean Payton still has some gas left in the tank. ah Yeah, like this is a even if the Broncos don't make it.
01:05:24
Speaker
don't be greedy because if you asked yourself before the season, yes if we're going to be alive in week 18, where a winning, you get into the playoff situation, you would kill for that. So don't like become the hypocrite now that the season has gone a little differently. Don't get too greedy and just be happy that, you know, your season looks to have been turned around. You have a quarterback, Courtland Sutton still around. And like, yeah, they to me, it's the defense of the Broncos. That's just shockingly, like you said, just spiraling right now. You can get the,
01:05:54
Speaker
Run all over them it's a it's a tough look for the Broncos but hey they're in the driver's seat they control their own destiny and make the playoffs and you have the opportunity to do that against like a 75% Chiefs team yeah, and I would love to see them run the ball in this game like I wouldn't that be inspiring if the Broncos could just rush the ball properly in this game. we've been It's a subplot we've been looking at all season. I think the Carson Wentz subplot is one of the funniest of the entire season. It's the fact that he's on the Chiefs, the fact that he could come out with another like backup Super Bowl ring would be hilarious. um Moving on to something that our listeners might be interested in in terms of betting, player incentives. It's the it's the talk of the town this week.
01:06:37
Speaker
every every betting mind thinks they have the world figured out with with sniping player incentives it never goes down that way like it it really doesn't um i think that I think I put together four player incentives that I think could actually maybe make some noise here. it's The first one is Mike Evans, five plus receptions and 85 plus yards. The 85 plus yards would get him over a thousand, both for the record and for an incentive. If he does those two things, he will make $3 million. dollars
01:07:10
Speaker
new Usually the incentives are like 250K. 3 million is insane. Yeah, it's insane and that is the one that I can see happening the most out of all of them because you know Baker respects the hell out of him. It's obviously you got some injury concerns and like you don't necessarily I guess I guess they still do have to win this game yeah in a way and you're playing the Saints so The issue for me is like the five plus receptions because you can get Mike Evans 85 yards and two catches. You're just going to have to start throwing them screens. yeah If he gets 85 and say two or three catches, it's like, all right, we're just going to get you some quick screens out there. Mike, just drop down and get touched and then get your $3 million dollars and have yourself a fucking off season. $3 million is insane for that incentive. I don't understand.
01:07:56
Speaker
I'll give you another one here. Geno Smith, 185 plus passing yards for 2 million! Yeah, the money is just in. They just throw it around, man. It's crazy that you go ahead, you go ahead. the The last two, Kyler Murray, one plus rush TD and 50 rush yards for 750 K. I think Kyler will be running all over the place for that, especially with how things are kind of trending and in in Arizona. And then it's Derek Henry. He gets one touchdown. He gets 500 K. It's very simple. I'm sure that'll be like minus six hundred. But you could throw it on top of a parlay.
01:08:34
Speaker
Yeah. And that's a game where, you know, he's going to be playing because the Ravens are still playing for the division. So he's going to be in there. I spent like for sure in the first half and you got to think, you got to think the Ravens get a touchdown in the first half and the odds are it probably comes from Derek Henry. Um, yeah, it's, it just, he was like pro bowl video when the coach goes up to him and say, Hey man, you made the pro bowl. And he's like, Oh, cool. No, I didn't. He's just like, he's just got like a hoodie on. He's just eating some food. It's like, yeah, cool. It's just like, uh, of course he was going to make the pro bowl.
01:09:04
Speaker
Yeah, dolphins had no pro bowl players that like hurt my soul a little bit. not yeah Not good. I thought there was only like a few who are really like, I thought Zach sealer, Johnny Smith, Johnny Smith happened to be in the AFC, which was like just killer because Brock Bowers like just got ah almost an auto bid.
01:09:22
Speaker
um But and yeah apparently Kelsey led the led every player in votes with one of his big like his biggest down season in five six years love to See that result in some fantasy Travis Kelsey had to sit through that all year and and now you're apparently a pro that they try and made the AFC North special on the Saturday. and It was just, it it was, yeah, they didn't have anything set for the last week, which kind of makes sense. Cause you have so many games that are meaningless and you just don't know what's gonna, which ones are gonna matter in in week one.
01:10:09
Speaker
what a game to end the nfl season though like to that for that to be the last sunday night game there's no monday night and on week eighteen just an absolute heavyweight loser leaves town game like it it loser still makes the playoffs but loser leaves the division town i Interesting, interesting matchup like Lions coming off of tuning up the 49ers. Like I think weirdly enough, I'm only saying this because nobody got injured in this game. You and me were like really scratching our heads of like why Jamir Gibbs was still in that game late, why Jared Goff was still in that game late. um But weirdly enough, like they're tuned up going into their biggest game of the season so far. Winner tie over the Vikings gives them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. First round by.
01:10:56
Speaker
Lost in the lines of the first 14 win wild card team in NFL history And I think if there's any team that needs a first round by it's the Lions maybe in the entire NFL um Also one of the best home field advantages in the NFL in Detroit so a lot on the line for the for the Lions here everything on the line kind of for both teams here. It's just when you get the one C when you get the home field advantage and the fact that it's like you said, like it is a divisional battle and everything that's at stake. Just someone's going to have to be a wildcard team and it, and it feels wrong and it, and it sucks.
01:11:33
Speaker
But like it's, it is how the the NFL playoff formats, you know, is always, it's always built that way. And now you get people kind of complaining because you actually have like talent in, in one division. Yeah. It's a fluke of a year. Kind of the the odds of that happening again, they're very low. They don't happen often.
01:11:51
Speaker
So everyone complaining about the playoff structure of the NFL, I don't understand it. It's probably not going to change. So i I think people are just complaining just to complain, kind of like how they were for college football. I was guilty of that myself. But the NFL one has been in in place. I they guess they changed the one seed and they gave an extra wild card seed. But the that you win your division, you get a home field game. It has always been a thing, and it's not going to change anytime soon.
01:12:19
Speaker
i I don't know what this game is. And yes, Dan Campbell is the luckiest man in the world that no one got injured in that game because he is just a reckless, reckless coach. And we'll see if that that's going to come into play in this game at some point, whether it's a fourth down, whether it's a fake punt, whether it's an onside kick, who knows? But Dan Campbell is going to be reckless. And I think on the other sideline, you got a pretty measured and calculated head coach who knows how to kind of get the best out of his players. And Sam Darnold's been playing as good as anyone could have ever imagined Sam Darnell would be playing and a lot of it falls on the shoulders of Kevin O'Connell and I kind of lean the Vikings in this game. I mean I know they're on the road here.
01:13:00
Speaker
but I like them with the spread for sure. Yeah, I just like the way that they've been playing. They've got a quiet swagger going about them. All the, you know, the sexy pics of the lions, the Eagles, like those are teams. Everyone looks at in the NFC and then the team that's just been there all year long is the Vikings. Like we've talked about, they're just quietly there. Now it's not as quiet that they've got to week 18 to this point.
01:13:20
Speaker
But the fact that they're in there no one is you know Technically giving them a chance and I I like the Vikings in this spot just kind of not a shock the world but just to pull off a little bit of an upset get the one seed and then just home field advantage and Then send like send the Lions to an outdoor game. ah Wait. No, I guess they'd be playing The either bucks or Rams right? I think those seeds are still up for grabs. So yeah, they play the box and They've already lost to the box. They got to go play outside. Who knows? I don't know. But I think the ah the depth, like the two, the three and the four seeds in the NFC, those are two teams kind of getting hot. and You don't really want to play them right now. Yeah, pretty much. And I think that this is a much different team than the Vikings played the first time back in week seven. Like they only lost that game by two points. It was thirty one twenty nine. This is a significantly more banged up box. The or ah
01:14:14
Speaker
Significantly more banged up Lions defense than the one they played Eileen Vikings in this one to over unders at 56 and a half I don't know if it'll hit but man is that a fun over that is that has to be the highest total of the season, right? 56 and a half is that's a college total you you that is insane to me. I'm I don't know might have take the under Yeah, that is it's so high A lot of points for a game where with this much on the line. um Yeah, interesting, interesting one. One last thing. Vikings beat Green Bay last week and the the bully allegations
NFL Team Reputations and Playoff Race
01:14:49
Speaker
continue. We brought it up a couple of weeks ago or maybe on a Christmas episode, actually, about, you know, the Green Bay, the big bag, Green Bay Packers beaten up on bad teams. Every time they play a good team, they get they get scared. They come out flat like I'm so low on the Packers, I just want them to lose.
01:15:07
Speaker
they They are in the second tier. They always have been. I mean, people have finally figured it out, Damien, but we've been on this for weeks now. Every time they play a team that has a better record than them in the NFC, not even in the AFC, they lose. So I don't understand how people want to throw them into the Super Bowl conversations. You know, we've harped on this before, but it's just week after week when they play these big teams, they lose. So until proven otherwise, they are in that second tier. They're like the I mean, I think they would beat the Steelers, but like they're in that Chargers, Steelers category of just second tier teams. And to me, they're not threatening. They don't have a home playoff game at Lambo, which would have been a huge advantage for them. And I can't like I can see them. Their peak is winning one playoff game to me and then faltering out in the division round.
01:15:56
Speaker
Yeah, and if the commanders lose, the Packers have an opportunity to win and play for the number six seed ah commanders when the Packers are locked into that seven seed, which is exactly I would say where they don't want to be.
01:16:08
Speaker
And the Commanders, if if they win, they get the six seed and helps them avoid playing the Eagles, which is, like, I think something that the Commanders desperately need. Am I crazy for not taking the Commander seriously in the NFC playoff picture? No, I think it's similar to the Broncos. Like, if you were to tell a Commander's fan that they were going to make the playoffs this year, they'd be extremely happy. Like, i I don't think any Commander's fan will honestly tell you that they are a a threat in this playoffs, and I don't think you should really treat them as such.
01:16:37
Speaker
Yeah, no, I'm not trying to take anything away. that how Amazing season. like The Broncos, you could kind of talk yourself into making the playoffs. Nobody thought the commanders would even sniff the playoffs, let alone get double digit wins. So yeah, credit to them. I just think when you look at the NFC playoff picture, and I think there's more horses in the NFC than there is in the AFC, I just don't see how the commanders make an impact on the playoffs. No, absolutely not. Staying NFC, the NFC South is the last kind of thing at stake in this week our Buccaneers can win and if they beat the Saints their favorite by 13 and a half they will win their fifth they will win the division for the fourth straight year they will get a playoff berth for their fifth straight season which would be the longest streak in franchise history it would also tie them with the Saints for seven division titles in that division like kind of just
01:17:31
Speaker
Slowly slowly erasing that that Saints legacy in that division um And the Saints have quickly turned into like one of the worst teams in the NFL like there there's so many bad teams in the NFL this year and it feels like they have like Somehow fallen almost to the bottom of that pile even though they don't have the wins for the first overall sweepstakes on the other side the Falcons need to beat the Panthers and uh, they are favored by seven and a half and also need the bucks to lose that overtime loss to the commanders really, really hurt. Like they, they pretty much lost the division in overtime unless nothing really changes here. Um, the only thing is our Buccaneers are unfortunately primed to play either the lions or the Vikings depends what the Rams do. But if they end up in that fourth seed, they, they might have to play like a top team in the NFL in the, in the wildcard round.
01:18:23
Speaker
Yeah, it's tough, but hey, it's a scrappy team. If there's any team that I would want to play one of those teams, and I mean, I mentioned it, the Buccaneers have already beat the Lions. So who knows how they will do again. And it's just bring the Lions outdoors. Who knows what you're going to get. Bring the Vikings out. Those are both teams are playing domes. We could get some inclement weather in Tampa Bay around this time of year. So who knows? Uh, but I think this division is.
01:18:46
Speaker
You know, it's wrapped up to me. yeah They like double the 13 and a half is just a shocking number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they covered it. And I mean, I just don't understand. I don't see barring any insane things happening. This this should be set. Our Buccaneers should be hosting a playoff game. And yeah, I guess, you know, see we'll see how it all unfolds. But I think the Buccaneers hold s serve here and keep the division.
01:19:11
Speaker
I do, too. Who knows?
NFL Draft Predictions and Team Strategies
01:19:13
Speaker
Maybe if they play the Vikings and they lose, maybe that transfers our fandom onto the Vikings for the playoffs. Who knows? We'll need a playoff team. Most likely. I got mine. I got mine. Oh, you have yours too, man. Who knows? Bring us to our last thing here for week 18 is the first overall sweepstakes. Four teams are at three and 13. That is the Patriots, the Titans, the Browns and the Giants.
01:19:37
Speaker
Based on how close the Patriots played the Bills with the starters in, I think that the Pats will find themselves out of this sweepstakes with the backups in. I kind of trust New England to play well and and kind of fuck themselves out of this game. um The Titans play the Texans who have nothing to play for, but this Titans team is so horrific, I don't trust them to win. So I think the Titans are in play. Giants play the Eagles who are only a three point favorite. So that kind of points to starters not playing. You know, Saquon's really not going to be a factor in that game but how they played against the Colts I think they're gonna win and screw themselves out of this pick which brings us to our underdog here the Cleveland Browns the Cleveland Browns are third overall in strength to schedule they have the edge over the Giants if they both lose so if the Titans and the Patriots managed to win I'm pretty sure the Browns get first overall
01:20:32
Speaker
Yeah, and what ah what an insane thing that would be to me. Especially seeing that start of the year with playoff aspirations and they're trying to build off something. Miles Garrett, defensive player of the year, they're thinking he's only going to get better. We're going to start dominating these teams. And you're looking first overall right in the face right now. You're 19 and a half point underdogs in the last game of the year and all that. It's just a starting quarterback that you've lost. It's not like it's it's half your team that's gone. You're just missing a starting quarterback in your 19 and a half point underdogs.
01:21:01
Speaker
My biggest thing is if the Browns do get first overall, who the hell do you take? I have no idea, dude. because And it's so fun to me to think about that. Like, do you take a quarterback? Do you trade?
01:21:13
Speaker
I think it's more like the Patriot situation. Like I think if they did get first overall, they'd likely trade it, but it's like, I don't trust the Cleveland Browns brass to do anything. No, they're, they're just one of the worst organizations in the NFL. They'll somehow mess this up. Maybe they just beat the Ravens and that's how they kind of screw themselves out of getting a pick like this. I would love that to happen. Uh, but I also, I also think the Titans are, are,
01:21:38
Speaker
I mean, obviously, the the Texans are playing nobody in that matchup, but I think the Titans are just so bad. Rudolph kind of gives you a chance instead of Levis to go win a a meaningless football game. But Tennessee kind of needs it more because I think that's an easy quarterback choice. They've already kind of mentioned that. Will Levis maybe, maybe isn't you know, this isn't the relationship that is going to be successful for either either person. So we should probably move on, then drag this out over a long time.
01:22:05
Speaker
Uh, but yeah, I mean, I don't know. It's not, it's not the sexiest draft to be, uh, bad either. Like me, who knows? Maybe it's like an Abdul Carter goes off. I think this is one of those drafts where you can see a non quarterback go first overall, a non wide receiver, just like some guys that just need to fill a position have to go get a guy. And it might not be the sexiest pick off the board, but if it makes an instant impact and makes your team better, you got to make the pick that you have to. Right.
01:22:30
Speaker
Did you see dan or lofsky and steven a smith arguing about kiss or lofsky was saying if jeremiah smith was in this draft he would go undoubtedly first overall and steven a smith was like i don't put it past nfl gm's to be dumb and take a quarterback if they need the position and like i've not i've not seen those two go at it like that but it was it was an impassioned debate Yeah. And I mean, it's a fun debate, but it's also a meaningless debate because he asked my two more years of college football. I do think he would be the most talented player on the draft by ah by a good amount. ah But it doesn't. It's all hypothetical stuff. man And I don't I don't love hypothetical conversations, but it's just i to me, the first overall pick is between Titans, Browns, I guess the Patriots like the Patriots can absolutely lose this game to Mr. Biski.
01:23:21
Speaker
that would be funny then you got think john may i is still kind of coaching for his job a little bit it's like he wants to win he doesn't really care you have your quarterback he don't need first overall so yeah you know what um youve you've kind of talked myself kind of into the patriots winning that game somehow they had a crazy statement that went out the other day the patriots did um i'll see if i can find it quickly here it was like how quickly they have kind of turned into a bit of a just chaos because you know with Belichick and everything it was just so business as usual nothing's leaking out of that building then you got one year without Belichick and it's just it's all over the place it doesn't really need to be because there's good things to talk about in New England Drake May's been great this year and like he's your guy for the future but I mean Van Pelt and Mayo ah appear to hate each other I think and
01:24:10
Speaker
I don't know, Kraft is just kind of sitting there by the wayside waiting to get his Hall of Fame jacket every year that goes by. He just gets more and more upset about it. But no, what were they saying? Fuck, I can't find it, man. It was basically the gist of it was like...
01:24:27
Speaker
you know, this has been we obviously didn't plan for the departure of Tom Brady and bill pellet check to go this badly and we will be investing hundreds of millions of dollars into free agency and and a severe like changing coaching will be looked at in the next like it basically sounded like they were announcing that they were firing Gerard Mayo already. Probably, and Van Pelt, if they're saying major, they'll probably take out the, maybe the defensive coordinator too. Who knows? Like, New England is in Kraft. Kraft, he doesn't understand what he had, and now he's going to try and recreate a dynasty, like, with patchwork, and I guess ah that must mean they're going to take a shot at T Higgins in the off-season for free agency at Drake Mayo wide receiver, which makes sense to me. I got no problem with that.
01:25:19
Speaker
But I just don't understand where their future lies aside from Drake May. I think that's the only thing you have as a staple, like Raimondre Stevenson. He's kind of gone down the tank this year. You need some wide receiver for Drake May, whether that comes in the form of Travis Hunter in a draft pick or you like you said, T Higgins in free agency or someone steps up from within that room already. But i the the Patriots is just I'm not used to them being a little dysfunctional and it just feels weird and wrong to me, to be honest.
NFL Game Predictions and Betting Insights
01:25:49
Speaker
very weird um without further ado we will get to the final regular season edition of our goal post picks 18 weeks or 17 weeks we've given you so far i was 28 and 20 last week i went two and one i am now 30 and 21 patrick was 21 and 24 he went two and one with both of his unders last week The Steelers were the ones that sold them up the river. Patrick is now 23 and 25 needing two wins to be 500. Three wins to get over 500. I hold serve here a lot of weird numbers on the board. I'm going to pull up.
01:26:31
Speaker
pull up my little fan to a port portal here. Just the absolute hardest week to pick. And i've I've put myself in a position, at least I've given myself a chance, but this is not the week that I i need to go two and one or three and oh, because who the hell knows what's going to happen in these match ups this week? No kidding. Um, man, a lot of different places I could go here. You could go anywhere. I really could. Uh, man. Okay. I,
01:26:58
Speaker
it's our It's moved in the direction that I thought it would but I somehow don't love it moving in this direction. The box was at 13.5 and it's now 14.5 and a half and am i am I crazy to say that I don't like 14.5 like I like There's something about 13 and a half. I like more. I don't disagree. i don't It's the NFL. It feels like you can win a game by 14 points right when you get to 14 and a half. it's okay Now you have to win it by 17 instead. yeah so It's just an extra you know scoring drive from the box that they have to get. so With that change, that was like my fate one of my favorite picks. I'm going to go Chargers 4 and a half against the Raiders here.
01:27:36
Speaker
They beat them by much more than four and a half in their first game of the year. The Raiders have kind of looked feisty with AOC, but the Chargers are playing for something still. And I think that they are also trying to get into a rhythm here in the playoffs. So I trust the Chargers to win that game by by a touchdown, I would say. I mean, betting on a team that's starting everyone and has stuff to play for. So it's it's a good strategy for you. I'm I'm going to go out and just take the Vikings.
01:28:04
Speaker
ah I don't I don't love it. But like you said, I just want to bet on a game that I know, you know, you have everyone playing and they're playing for something. And I like the Vikings to pull it off, man. Like you said, they lost by two in the first one. So if they lose by two in this one, we still cover it. But I I believe they can win this game. Yeah, I don't hate that pick whatsoever. um I'm going to take.
01:28:27
Speaker
The Cincinnati Bengals, one and a half. Two and a half. Two and a half. Two and a half. Is it two and a half now? Two and a half. I'm not giving you any points. Two and a half. Two and a half. I'm taking the Bengals. Two and a half. Steelers haven't shown me it. I will be gladly proven wrong in this game. But with how the Bengals offense has been playing, I think if that is a field goal game, I think that the Bengals might end up on the right side of it. Yeah, I don't disagree. The Steelers have not shown anything.
01:28:55
Speaker
um Going back to the well from last week with what works. Here we go. Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans under thirty six and a half. I don't even know who the Texans backup quarterback is, but it doesn't matter to me. I'm going to take that under. I like that. I like that a lot. All right, dude, if we made our picks on like if we recorded on a Tuesday like we normally did, that Ravens line opened that we would have gotten it at 13 and a half and it's now 19 and a half. Right.
01:29:25
Speaker
To me, the line went in the wrong way when they announced Bailey Zappi because it was 17 and a half and it went up two points. To me, Bailey Zappi gives you a better chance to win football games than DTR. i don't I'm not going to touch that game, but to me, that line moved the wrong way after that announcement. Man, there's some disgusting picks on the board here. It's all it's all disgusting. like You could talk me into any pick this week because none of it, I don't i don't know anything. It's all just chaos.
01:29:51
Speaker
I'm going to go with a team that I'm surprised is not favorited. The San Francisco 49ers are plus four and a half against the Cardinals. The Niners to me in that game against the Lions didn't look like a team that was like necessarily rolling over. Like I think they have too much pride to really kind of roll over, especially against a team like the Cardinals, a division game in a division that they've been dog shit in this year. I'm going to take the 49ers. That's a lot of points.
01:30:21
Speaker
Yeah, and I mean not that line kind of flew under my radar. But yeah, that is kind of a a surprise. I don't know who's starting for the 49ers or whatever. But I mean, neither of these teams have anything to play for. So why not take the points? Yeah. Lastly, I need your dolphins defense to step up for me here under 38 and a half in the Jets Dolphins game.
01:30:41
Speaker
It's going to be cold, probably just some horrible weather in New York. Tyler Huntley at quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are a dead team. So, yeah, just give me the under and that one and hopefully your dolphins pull it off just to just to give you a glimmer of hope. You know, why not?
01:30:55
Speaker
I hope so. that I actually love that under. That's ah that's probably the best one on the board. Honestly, maybe maybe that tightens one as well. So you snipe the two good unders again. And then hopefully the Vikings can pull it off on Sunday night and I. Yeah, it would just be nice to go 500 and if I can go above 500, we're a good podcast at picking picks.
01:31:13
Speaker
Yes, we are. That would be that that's a hell of a graphic. That's a graphic I hope I get to make. um But without further ado, that will do it for us at the goalpost this week, heading into some great, great football here, especially with the NFL playoffs starting up here. So we're just kind of getting started here with with meaningful football.
01:31:33
Speaker
the season may be ending but we still have so far to go and it starts with this week a lot of stuff on the line for you know NFC, AFC first overall pick so it may seem like a meaningless week but there's plenty to play for and plenty of things to keep an eye on so we just enjoy it and like you said you'd kill for these games in the middle of June so don't don't be upset that they're happening now Exactly. And that'll do it for us at the goalpost this week. We'll get back to you, get back on more of a regular schedule um onwards to next week. Until then, Patrick, I'll see ya. See ya, Damien.