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Maybe they aren’t as bad as we thought
49 Plays4 months ago
When last we talked, the Sounders had just lost to Sporting KC and we were openly wondering if it was time to admit that they might just be a bad team.
You’ll have to pardon the whiplash, but two games later we think that was probably an unfair conclusion and are now wondering the opposite.
No, a 2-0 win over Minnesota United and a 2-2 draw with the Houston Dynamo doesn’t suddenly make us think the Sounders are MLS Cup contenders, but it is some evidence that this team might be a bit better than they had been looking.
The draw with the Dynamo was weirdly even more encouraging, not because the Sounders played better but because they looked so awful in the first half and still managed to come back. That’s what good teams do!
It's probably too early to say the Sounders are a contender, but they sure do look a lot better than they did two weeks ago and we're OK calling that progress.
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Transcript
Introduction and Sponsorship
00:00:00
Speaker
Hey, this is Christian Roldan. And Jordan Morris from the Seattle Sounders Football Club. And you're listening to NOS Arietes. This episode of NOS Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of NOS Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters.
Seattle Sounders' MLS Cup Victory Highlights
00:00:20
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, the Pacific Northwest.
00:00:28
Speaker
A.O. Shen! Let's go! What a save by Fry! The Seattle Sounders have done it! MLS Cup win! Here come three years through the middle to crown it the vehicle! And now they truly can't stop the celebrations. It's the Sounders' MLS Cup! Niko Liddo leaves out!
00:01:12
Speaker
Is that what you young people call twerking?
Recent Game Performances and Analysis
00:01:28
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of Nos Adietta, sponsored by Full Poll Wines and our subscribers. We're recording on Thursday, June 20th, 2024. I am your host, Jeremiah Shan. Joining me today is my co-host, Aaron Campo and our engineer, Lickett. When we last talked, the Sounders had just lost to Sporting Kansas City, and we were openly wondering if it was time to admit that they just might be a bad team.
00:01:51
Speaker
You'll have to pardon the whiplash, but two games later, we think that was probably an unfair conclusion and are now wondering the opposite. No, a 2-0 win over Minnesota United in a 2-2 draw with the Houston Dynamo doesn't suddenly make me think the Sounders are MLS Cup contenders, but it is some evidence that this team might be a bit better than they had been looking. The draw with the Dynamo was weirdly even more encouraging than the win over Minnesota, not because the Sounders played better, but because they looked so awful in the first half and still managed to come back.
00:02:21
Speaker
That's what good teams do. So, Aaron, what do you think? Were we too harsh last episode? No, I'm actually taking credit for the turnaround. I think we did it. Let's go. You're welcome. I think that they are who we thought they might be at the beginning of the season. We've kind of touched on this before, but
00:02:50
Speaker
Um, since the bad start, the windlass start since the Montreal game, um, they've been playing like a mid table team. And when you don't want a game until what seven games in, um, five, six game.
00:03:07
Speaker
Yeah. If you lose or get two points from your first five games, right? It's going to take you a while as playing as like a average-ish mid table type team to get to a respectable points total. The Sounders still have a way to go. But yeah, I think that the team that they've been over the past.
00:03:27
Speaker
two and a half-ish months is probably pretty close to what they are in reality.
Sounders' Mid-Season Assessment: Contenders or Not?
00:03:35
Speaker
And I think they've had a lot of bad luck sprinkled along the way. I think they've had some good luck lately. And the Houston game is a prime example of that, where they definitely took advantage of some positive fortune that they just weren't getting early in the year. So I definitely don't think they're a bad team anymore.
00:03:50
Speaker
I think that they've been giving us some signs of encouragement, but I think their ceiling is very low right now. I don't think that there's anyone looking at this team right now and saying, this is a team that can go on a serious run and win an MLS Cup. But they're at least worth watching again. It doesn't feel like a chore to watch them, and that's at least the last few games. So that's a big plus. Yeah, I would say that they've, I mean, the last, it's funny.
00:04:21
Speaker
early on
00:04:38
Speaker
usually the choice is losing a bunch of games three to two or, you know, tying games one one or something like that. But this was this was a good example of the kind of game where it's just it was like the first half was I think maybe their worst half of the season. I think I feel pretty comfortable saying that. And the second half was not anything like their best half.
00:05:03
Speaker
But it did show some resilience, and it was fun. It was fun to watch them come back.
Strategic Decisions and Player Performance
00:05:10
Speaker
And, you know, I found myself almost talking myself into like, if they end up losing this game, I'd almost be okay with it because at least they showed bite and they back. But it's a lot better to get a point out of that one. It is still concerning that, you know, we're now 19 games in the season, the centers have not won back to back games yet, which is,
00:05:33
Speaker
a concern. That's a thing they're going to have to fix if they're going to be anything that we would like to call a decent team. But like you said, you go back two and a half months and you're talking about a sample size of about 14 games, I guess, at that point, right?
00:05:50
Speaker
and they're right around one and a half points per game over a relatively extended period. And I don't know, I feel like this team is just like, I keep crunching numbers in different ways and it keeps coming back probably somewhere between 46 to 48 points, probably finishing somewhere between fourth and seventh. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, after the start to the season, I think most people would take that.
00:06:21
Speaker
Um, it's, they're not going to do it in a super exciting way. I think everybody's accepted that at this point, boring, unforeseen acquisitions. Um, but I can, I can live with a team that beats Minnesota pretty comfortably tuned all at home and that can fight back and get two goals on the road. Like I can live with that kind of team. Uh, that's, that's a much more fun team to me and.
00:06:44
Speaker
I think the most encouraging thing probably that would give people hope that things are going to improve is that we've seen some tough decisions made personnel wise. We saw Jordan Morris get to start against Minnesota and then get to start again against Houston. I thought he was as good as he's ever been against Minnesota and not as good against Houston, but still put in a good shift. I don't really feel like his lack of involvement was a Jordan problem first and foremost.
00:07:15
Speaker
And, you know, Brian at the 60th minute went to Raul, which suggests to me that Jordan is probably going to get the start on Saturday, which I think is encouraging. And he went to Raul, who I thought, to be fair, did exactly what you want him to do in that situation. But he also brought on Danny Mstavsky, which I thought was a really positive decision. So he's showing definitely a willingness to mix things up.
00:07:40
Speaker
to try different formations, to try different personnel combinations. You know, in the Minnesota game, obviously Paul Rothrock coming on for Alex Rothern was not, I think, what anybody expected, but it turned out reasonably well. I would say that was like in the press box, there was a lot of people kind of, you know, making surprised faces at one another.
00:08:01
Speaker
Yeah, but it's I think, you know, in Brian's comments after the game sort of alluded to this, I think that this is an example of the things that he is privy to that fans aren't, you know, who's doing what in training, how well they're carrying out his instructions and what he what kind of things he's seen from players that just the public doesn't have access to. And
00:08:22
Speaker
You know, I think that Paul Rothrock will be the first person to tell you about Paul Rothrock's limitations, you know, based on his post-game comments against Minnesota. But I think that the kind of spark he's brought to the team has been invaluable. I think that the kind of effort he showed to get that goal
00:08:41
Speaker
You know, Brian talked in the post game about the body language and about the way the sounders responded to the goals they gave up and just about how they didn't look up for it. I think everybody kind of noticed that. And, you know, a lot of the time, I wouldn't say anybody looked like they weren't trying, but it also didn't necessarily look like they were trying to make things happen.
00:09:03
Speaker
And Paul Rothrock just tried to make something happen, and it did. And that completely changed the tenor of the game. It completely changed the way the sounders approached the game. And sometimes that's what you need. You just need somebody to try some shit, to give extra effort, and have a high enough skill level that that results in something.
00:09:27
Speaker
And I think it was a good decision by Brian to start to bring him on against Minnesota and a good decision to give him a start in Houston. Yeah, I think that it was funny. I didn't really realize this at the time. And I don't feel like anyone really made a big deal. That was Paul Rothrock's first MLS start. And prior to his whatever
00:09:50
Speaker
80 minute performance, 85 minute performance against Minnesota. He hadn't even played, he'd only played more than 15 minutes, like once or twice in an MLS game in his whole MLS career. This is a player who we don't necessarily think of as inexperienced because he has sort of been around and he's not, he's not a young player anymore. He's 25.
00:10:11
Speaker
But you know, it's kind of neat to see a player like that getting a chance and making the most of it. There's a guy he has, you know, he's now got two goals this year. You know, I don't know how long the Sounders can really ride him. And I would frankly be a little surprised if he starts again on Saturday. Like my expectation would be Leo Chu comes in and
00:10:32
Speaker
And, but we probably will continue to see Paul Rothrock and it's good to see, you know, I'm just glad that we're getting some different faces out there. I think that was one of the big things people were really getting frustrated with the sounders is that it was, you know, for a long time, it was the same cast of characters and doing kind of making the same mistakes.
00:10:52
Speaker
And, you know, it's the Sounders are not playing champagne football. But if you go back to the Philadelphia game, you know, you have a sample size, like you said, about two and a half months. The centers are averaging a goal and a half per game. They've scored two goals on, let's see, two, four, six, seven occasions, if you include the open cup.
00:11:15
Speaker
It's not like they are playing expanse, you know, they're not playing this like free
Offensive Challenges and Key Players
00:11:20
Speaker
flowing expanse of soccer, but they are finding ways to score at least they're finding ways to be competitive, they're finding ways to, you know, put on a little bit of a show and
00:11:33
Speaker
I don't know, like call me guilty of lowering my expectations, but based on how this season has looked at times, I'll take that. Now that's not, that's not, that can't be the end game. This team has to get better. Like the whole point of this is to contend for trophies. And while I do think they are perfectly capable of winning the US Open Cup at this point, we're not setting that as a mission accomplished type of bar, I don't think.
00:12:01
Speaker
And they do need something on the upside. They need to bring in something on the upside. That might be Pedro de la Vega, who I feel reasonably confident in saying, there's a chance he'll play against Chicago. I don't think he'll play against Dallas. But you know, if you start adding pieces like that, and you can see this team getting getting better. Yeah, absolutely. I think that
00:12:29
Speaker
The biggest problem the team has had for 18 months ish now is scoring goals. And I think that Raoul has been a big part of that this year. I feel extremely confident that Jordan Morris is going to score more run-and-play goals than Raoul is scoring if he keeps getting started at the time. Two more than him already.
00:12:50
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. And so I think he's gonna, he's gonna contribute. I know that there are a lot of people who don't think that he's good enough to be the nine on a MLS Cup contending team or a team that's serious about the, the world.
00:13:08
Speaker
Club World Cup. Goodness. Yeah. But I disagree with that, but I don't think it's a crazy opinion. But I do think that it's clear that you want the scene to have more offensive firepower. But then I think if you have somebody who can create on a regular basis, Albert Rusnak, man, it's frustrating for me because I like him so much as a player.
00:13:33
Speaker
And I do not blame anybody that never wants to see him again because he's just, he's not the creator that the Sounders need. He is elite. He's so good at the things he's good at. And on a team that doesn't need him to be the primary creator, I think he would be irreplaceable. But they need that from him and he's just not going to give it to him.
00:13:52
Speaker
Yeah, it is. It's funny because he has started to produce more lately. Like he's got a goal and three assists in the last four or five last five games.
00:14:04
Speaker
three of those assists and two of the assists and one of the goals are from free kicks. To be fair, not to interrupt, but to be fair has been a huge problem for the Sounders this year. I'm not lifting that gift horse in the mouth. If the Sounders can suddenly become an effective set piece team, I have no problem with that. I am not one of these guys who's going to
00:14:30
Speaker
say like set pieces don't count or whatever the Caleb Porter thing was a few years ago. But he's not producing a lot of danger from open play. And, you know, he did have one really nice he's at a couple moments, he'll have moments here and there. And he, you know, he had the assist to Morris against St. Louis. But
00:14:56
Speaker
And then he had, he had a nice combination with Morris against Minnesota, but he's just not involved. He's not involved enough. He's, he needs to be more involved, I guess is what I'm saying. He needs to be like, I don't think he's ever going to be a 80 to a hundred touch player. That's not really his game, but he needs to find a way to be more of a creator than he has been.
00:15:20
Speaker
Yeah, there was one moment, and I don't even remember when in the game it was. I think it was reasonably early. I don't think Houston had scored yet. But there was a break. And I think it just came from high pressure. Jordan, I think, won a tackle. I just really remember the last couple of seconds of the move. Sounders had a three on two. Rusnak has the ball in a ton of space. Jordan is making a run through the center. Rothrock is sort of trailing.
00:15:50
Speaker
The very obvious pass is to Jordan, and he has a pretty good angle at it, you know, and I think you just have to trust. Oh, I know the play you're talking about now. Yeah. And instead he decides to try to be just too clever by half and cut it back to Rothrock, who wasn't any more open than Jordan. Much tougher pass and is also Paul Rothrock and not Jordan Morris. No offense. Yeah.
00:16:15
Speaker
And I just feel like there are so many of those situations where he's, it's like he's, half the time he's scared to make the line breaking aggressive pass and half the time he's trying to be too cute in those situations. Yeah. And, uh, it's frustrating, man. And I like him so much as a player, but without a primary creator, he just is not, he's not helpful.
00:16:40
Speaker
He's not helpful enough. He's not as helpful as he, I mean, for, again, like, I think he, like, I'm with you. I think he's a useful player. He does a lot of.
00:16:49
Speaker
things well. But one of the things he doesn't do a lot of is he's not a string puller.
Financial Constraints and Strategic Purchases
00:16:55
Speaker
You know, he's not any, you know, last year he did a really good job of being sort of a second runner. Yeah. And, and he got himself into some good positions to score some goals late in the season. We haven't really seen that from him this year. Like he just hasn't been dangerous from either as a creator or as a finisher for mobile play this year.
00:17:18
Speaker
And I'm not quite ready to give up on him because I think he's still by far the sounder's best option, but hard to imagine that the sounders are gonna wanna move forward with him as a primary playmaker next year. Yeah, I have no problem with him as a DP on a team that has a primary playmaker and that has at least two
00:17:46
Speaker
reasonably effective goal scoring threats, which is kind of what he's been historically on this team, right? Without those things, it's just not worth it. And you can be an extremely good team with Russnak as a DP, but you don't need a player like him to be an extremely good team. Yeah, I'd say that's a fair way of putting it.
00:18:11
Speaker
Now, one of the things that we're sort of alluding to is what we think is going to happen in the summer. And as we sit here right now, and I sort of talked about this a little bit on the podcast I did with Mark earlier in the week, but we may as well get into a little bit more now because I've been able to get a little bit more information.
00:18:31
Speaker
I'm not getting any indication that the sounders are gonna be making a big move. They might do some I suspect they'll do something and they might even figure out how to get like a Tam like a light Tam level player into the team. But right now it doesn't sound like there's much budget to make a a big move like a real
00:18:53
Speaker
You know, sort of game changing move and that's, that's frustrating. Uh, because it feels like this is the window where you want to open it up because you don't want to leave it until, you know, like we saw with Pedro de la Vega this last off season, the sounders had that deal all buttoned up essentially.
00:19:15
Speaker
at the end of the season. And yet it took months to finally get it across the finish line. And I don't know how much that ultimately impacted his fitness and all of that, but it didn't help. And even in the best case scenario, I suppose he would have been ready for the season. I mean, he did plan the season opener.
00:19:37
Speaker
but you just don't wanna chance it like that if you don't have to. And the Sounders don't have, like they're gonna need every training session possible with whatever new players they bring in. And I just don't understand why they can't find a way to do it now. I mean, I'm still operating under the assumption that they're gonna make some moves in the winner to bolster this, like they're gonna have two open DP spots. They better do something big in the winner.
00:20:06
Speaker
But I just don't see, if you have the ability to push the timeframe up, why not do it? I mean, I understand there's some pain involved in buying out of Raul Rui Diaz, but it seems like that's the pragmatic call, right? You just bite the bullet, you spend the money now to buy him out. And if you're going to go out and buy a DP9 anyway, get him in now.
00:20:36
Speaker
Yeah, I definitely think they need to make one big move this season in the summer window. Yeah. To be a real contender. Yeah. And I don't see it happening. I'm with you. I really feel like we would, unless they are really trying to keep something quiet.
00:20:57
Speaker
Yeah, like really, really, really, and really, really quiet. And it really just seems like the idea is look like this is the team we've got. We'll try to make something happen within the framework of what we have. Right. And that's just not good enough from ownership. It's just not. I think if you had seven run of play goals and he had been like reasonably effective in other phases of the game,
00:21:24
Speaker
Fine. Like it's frustrating, but it's like I understand why you can't really justify buying a player that's performing like that out. Right. But that's not what's happened. He's been actively bad in most phases of the game. He hasn't scored since the Portland game.
00:21:40
Speaker
Most of his goals are penalties. He's, it's just not good enough and trying to integrate two players who, if, if they even sign two DPs, which I don't know that they will. Um, but I think it's, I think it's safe to assume they'll sign a DP and at least a high Tam player or like a player you expect to be written in pen. Right.
00:22:06
Speaker
I would be really nice to get one of those guys integrated in the team, you know, they're going to be key players in the team. And, um, yeah, I mean, the club World Cup starts in, uh, remind me in what the, it starts next, like, like in a year, essentially. It's not like the last time when it's functionally preseason, right? Which is a little bit of a benefit. Even if they sign somebody, this,
00:22:33
Speaker
off season, they'll have a little time to get integrated. But then are you punting the first half of the season again? Because you can't get it's just no, I don't, I don't understand it. I don't either. And it's it's frustrating. The other thing I've heard is essentially what the sound so the sounders have
00:23:01
Speaker
you know, call it $500,000 of open cap space right now. So that allows them to go do something. But anything that they do essentially has to be accounted for with outgoing players. So if they want to add more play, if they want to do more than what they have,
00:23:20
Speaker
you know, with that, that space, they got to figure out a way to move guys and they're not going to move. Like the kind of players are there, they would have to move or all players who are reasonably integrated into the team. There's not like another Javier who's just sitting there kind of waiting to have his contract, uh, terminated.
00:23:41
Speaker
I suppose you could argue Nathan is in there, but they can't just lose another center back. That's a player they need. They're not going to move anyone unless they have their replacement already lined up, and they can't really finalize any financial deals until they have the money.
00:24:01
Speaker
Yeah, really know how much money they have. So it puts them in this odd situation, where they're sort of stuck in this limbo of trying, you know, I would, I would think at some point, the pragmatic part of this will go and just like, go get whatever you can get for the money that you have available. Right. But that's probably not a starter. I mean, that's just the reality like this. And really, the thing that this team has been missing, and I think we've said this on the show before, is that there's
00:24:28
Speaker
I like I still look at this roster and I like it from you know, down into the 20s, right? Like I think you can put a really solid game day roster together without even with missing a few pieces. But what they're missing is that top end game changing force amplifier, whatever term you want to use. They don't have that player at the top of the roster right now. They've got a bunch of guys who are
00:24:56
Speaker
Pretty, you know, like Albert Rusnak is one of these guys, Jordan Morris, even a Christian Roldan, Jal Paolo. You can go down the list and there's a lot of players who you, you, you put the right guy with them and you could see them really blowing up or being really useful, but they're just, they need a player who's a bonafide starter, who's going to lift the level of the team. And they probably aren't going to be able to do that with the budget they currently have available.
00:25:23
Speaker
Yeah, I think if you add 2018, Nico Ledero and Raul Ruy Diaz to this team, they're the best team in league potentially. Potentially, yeah. That's the thing that has just really crystallized as the year has gone on for me is that it's not a problem with a lot of the roster construction. It's why I get so frustrated when people
00:25:48
Speaker
Yeah, talk about a broken roster and talk about how, you know, this is all to be pinned on Craig Weibel or whatever when it's just like, it seems pretty clear that the issue is that there is not budget available to bring in marquee players.
00:26:06
Speaker
for whatever reason. I guarantee you if it was up to Craig Weible, he would be spending money. I don't think he is looking at the roster, regardless of what he might say on the record, I don't think he looks at this roster and says, nope, it's good as is.
00:26:29
Speaker
And so yeah, I don't necessarily put it all on him. I think you can argue that he should be making the most of what he has. And I think you can argue that
00:26:39
Speaker
if he knew he had limited budget, then they haven't been aggressive enough in turning over what they had. I think those are all valid criticisms. But I think you're still dealing with the same base level of talent. And what they need is someone who's going to raise that, who's going to sort of raise the ceiling. And I know it's been demonstrated over and over again that
00:27:08
Speaker
MLS is not a league that where you have a high, you have really any real correlation between spending and performance. But that doesn't mean you like not spending money is not an end is not a method. That's like all when you're not when you're just literally not spending money. That's just stasis. That's just getting stale. That is not improving. Right. And if you have and so you have to spend some money to get better.
00:27:38
Speaker
And that doesn't mean you have to be the top spending team. It doesn't even mean you have to keep up with what Dallas is doing or Austin is doing or Houston is doing or whatever these teams that are traditionally lower spending teams but have been raising the bar for what they're spending. But the point is you got to spend something. And right now there doesn't seem to be a ability to go and do that. And that's what's frustrating.
00:28:02
Speaker
Yeah, I think that if the money that the Sounders spent on Nico Ledero last year and spent on Raul Rodriguez last year and this year had been going to players contributing at a level that justified their salary, this wouldn't be a problem. It's not necessarily an issue of
00:28:21
Speaker
The dollar amount is not enough. It is that the money you were spending on the players you have isn't good enough. And to get new ones, you have to spend more money. And I understand that there's not a correlation between spending and money in MLS. And I think that there are a lot of reasons for that.
00:28:41
Speaker
You can kind of identify what the outliers might be, right? Um, you've got teams like Chicago that spend a ton of money badly. You've got teams like Toronto that spend a ton of money badly. Uh, you've got really smart teams that are really good with the cap, you know, and the sounders have historically been one of those teams, not the biggest spenders, but towards the top and also smart and giving themselves advantages in other ways. You don't have to spend a ton of money on transfers anywhere in the world to be a good team.
00:29:09
Speaker
right? But you do have to spend money on wages and all that stuff. When you have to spend, you have to be willing to spend new money, whatever. It doesn't mean you just because Chelsea wouldn't spend $100 million on a player doesn't mean you have to go spend $100 million on a player to be competitive. But it probably means you have to improve your roster.
00:29:28
Speaker
Yeah, for sure. Yeah. I mean, not to talk about Aston Villa again on here, but I think that they, they're a good example here where they've spent a ton of money over the past five or six years.
00:29:42
Speaker
And they're not as good as teams that have spent less money, like Liverpool, for example, or Arsenal. They've spent more money than both those teams. They also had to go from the championship to the Champions League over the course of that period of time. So when you need to improve, you've got to spend money. And their wage spend isn't going to be as high as a lot of teams. When everything settles from that initial investment, they'll be right back to where you expect them to be.
00:30:09
Speaker
Um, and yeah, I think the sounders are probably to get where they need to get to be as competitive as people need them to be. There's probably going to be some initial spend that bumps them right back up to spend rankings for a couple of years, and then they'll come back down. And the key thing is they have to spend money on good players. Right. And there's no, there's no shame in, you know, like what they did with Nico Ledero and, and Rollroy Diaz, where you signed them.
00:30:34
Speaker
and then you play through their contract and you don't... I wasn't so worried about the sounder's lack of spending.
00:30:43
Speaker
through 2022. It was only last year where it started to become, okay, what
Impact of Infrastructure Spending on Team Budget
00:30:48
Speaker
are we doing here? Because you now have players who are clearly on the downside of their career. Why are we still spending money on these players when they're not producing at the level you need them to be producing at? I was totally fine with going out and spending
00:31:06
Speaker
Albert, you know, free agent money on Albert Rusnak, and you're saving yourself a transfer fee. Hey, that's smart, right? Right. But then to, you know, not it's just like you
00:31:20
Speaker
There's smart ways to spend money and there's dumb ways to spend money. It's not so much how much you spend, it's how you spend. These are pretty well-established things. And I think sometimes we get caught up in the debate over, well, are the sounders spending enough? And that's sort of missing the point. It's not that, are they spending enough? It's like, are they spending it in the right way? And right now, it doesn't look like they're just willing to spend anything, any new money right now. And I think it's unfortunate because this is a legitimate window to
00:31:51
Speaker
to try and win something. I think the West looks really open this year. And heck, the East in some ways
00:31:58
Speaker
is not quite as formidable or impossible to beat as it looked at the start of the season. Cincinnati is maybe going to be missing Matt Miyazaga for the rest of the year. Miami definitely has some struggles. Who knows how healthy they stay. We're getting ahead of ourselves, but the point is the Sounders can become a
00:32:21
Speaker
MLS Cup contender without having to spend a whole lot of money. They just need to go out and do something. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Go ahead. No, that was it. I just, it's if you look at a player like I hate to do this, but Evander, right? Oh, it's been outstanding this season. Ouch. I'm sorry, but it's true. He's making lesson roll this year. Right. It's because and look like
00:32:50
Speaker
It was a $10 million transfer. True. But I think with you in just roles, transfer fee for inflation, it's not going to be that much off of that, right? Probably not. Yeah. And, you know, he's he's kind of set the league on fire this year. He's been great. Timbers are still bad, which is why I feel, OK, bringing that up. Why are you bringing this up? But but, you know.
00:33:11
Speaker
Yeah, it's and I have no problem with giving the role of the extension because I think you probably don't win the Champions League without doing it. Yeah, we don't need to, you know, we don't need to rehash all this. That's all fine. But yeah. It's it's been time to go. And the worst thing any team can do is wait too long to pull the trigger on things like this. And I think it's pretty clear that the Sounders did. And it's it's very unfortunate. Yeah. And I guess it's it's worth also
00:33:40
Speaker
mentioning that I do think Adrian Hanauer deserves some credit for having a bigger
00:33:50
Speaker
horizon for his vision right like he I know he lives and dies with results on a week to week basis so he gets it but I think he's also trying to look bigger picture where he's in his mind you know and part of the reason I think that they don't have a lot of money to spend is because they spent a bunch of money on long acres because they spent money on buying buying Seattle rain
00:34:13
Speaker
And those are legitimate investments. Those are things that potentially are really, really transformational for Seattle soccer. And they set the Sounders up in a way, potentially, that's really great in 10, 20 years down the road. We may look back on this year and say, okay, well, if the cost of
00:34:37
Speaker
of getting this transformational facility and starting the investment at Long Acres and bringing in the rain, that was all that struggle was worth it. But what I'm a little worried about is I think there's maybe an underestimation of the risk that they're going through right now. And if the sounders give off a impression that they
00:35:03
Speaker
aren't trying to be competitive as competitive as they can be, I should say. They're trying to be competitive. They're clearly trying to win games. But if they give the impression that they're sort of sitting on their hands when even relatively small investments could make a difference, I think that will have a real detrimental effect. And it could really have a spiraling effect in terms of turning off season ticket holders. Season ticket renewals just went out this week.
00:35:31
Speaker
And it's not a good time to be playing around with the idea that it's like, yeah, we're not, we're not going to spend anything. Like give us more money than you gave us last year. Except a lower quality product. You know, they're out there and they, you know, they just, this week they've announced like two or three different new sponsorships. Like, okay, so what is this money? What's this money going towards? Is it just going towards long acres? Because I don't think that's what fans want to hear.
00:35:57
Speaker
Right. Yeah. And then you're talking about building a stadium. Right. Right. That you're not going to get public money for. Right. You know, it's just and I think you're right. I think that there's a very.
00:36:10
Speaker
big, major sports mindset at play here, most likely with the Sounders, where if you're an NBA team, you can tank for years. And when you get your draft picks and you start winning games and you're a contender, yep, the fans are going to come back. You're going to get that profit sharing money. You'll be fine. Fans will come back, NFL, Major League Baseball. You can do that in those leagues. And I think the Sounders are.
00:36:40
Speaker
potentially rolling the dice that you can do that when you're the Sounders, right? Which there's no evidence, there's really no evidence that you can get away with that in MLS. No, I think that the Sounders have been the success that they are because they came on the scene at one of the worst times in Seattle sports histories and were from day one committed to winning and had success on the field and put on a good show and all of that stuff, right?
00:37:10
Speaker
There are a lot of options in Seattle sports now. The Mariners are good. The Kraken are the new shiny thing. The Seahawks are, I mean, the Seahawks are the Seahawks. They want a Super Bowl. They've got decades around the corner. Yeah.
00:37:22
Speaker
And, you know, people, and even if you think there's still enough soccer fans in the Northwest, we'll have our built-in fan base. It's a hell of a lot easier to watch the Premier League and the Champions League and La Liga and Liga Emequi than it was in 2009, 2010. So people can get their soccer fix. You can turn on NBC on a Saturday and watch the Premier League now.
00:37:50
Speaker
And I think they're playing a really dangerous game if they're betting that people will put up with a few down years and not just down years, but years where they're so clearly pinching pennies and just not being as aggressive as they need to be.
Upcoming Home Games and Season Outlook
00:38:07
Speaker
I think that's a really, really serious risk.
00:38:10
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it's it's an interesting thing. I don't think during any point in sounders history has attendance really fluctuated from one week to the next. Within a relatively, it's always been a relatively small
00:38:26
Speaker
Like you'll see a bump one week and then I'll go back down. But you don't see this, like with the Mariners, when they get good, you can all of a sudden see this like ramping up of people getting excited just to go out to the games. And that's just not ever been part of what Sounders fandom is. It's like people buy season tickets.
00:38:42
Speaker
Maybe they buy a few tickets in advance, but they're just not doing a lot of week of or game, you know, day of sales that they can sort of count on moving if they just get good. Right. That's just not really how it's been. And I don't, I would think that's a very dangerous thing for the Sounders to a game for the Sounders to start playing where they tell essentially telling fans, no, you, you don't really need to get season tickets.
00:39:13
Speaker
because when it's good, though, you can come out and that's just not, I mean, it's a, you know, I think we sometimes underestimate how hard it is to convince people to get season tickets once they've given them up with the Sounders. Yeah. And I don't know, I just think I'm just a little worried that they are maybe underselling the dangers of
00:39:39
Speaker
of not giving people something exciting, something to get excited about. And the reality is people get excited about new signings. Yeah. I mean, for years, I went to every game, including the CCL games, most of the Open Cup games, ad season tickets. And once you don't, you get out of the habit of going to every game, the, for me, at least the desire has not been there to do it again, to go back to that. Um, and.
00:40:09
Speaker
Yeah, I just think, and I don't think they're going to have the conversion rates of younger people that they used to, you know, cause they're not the hip young thing anymore. And, um, yeah, it's, this was supposed to be the upbeat show too. That's the funny thing. It started on such a high note. Yeah. But I, but I think it's, I mean, I do think that that's, those are the stakes realistically, like, yeah.
00:40:35
Speaker
Because even though I feel a lot better about the team than I did even last week, people are not going to be falling all over themselves to renew their season tickets to see a team averaging one and a half points a game. Right. And that's I think that's sort of like what we come back to is like there are two there's two things can be objectively true. Yeah. The Sounders are better than they looked a few weeks ago or a couple of weeks ago.
00:41:01
Speaker
and their prospects for being a true MLS contender aren't that much better than they were then. Like, I think I feel very comfortable in saying, I am very confident this is a playoff team. I feel very confident that it's a playoff team that will probably miss the playing game. I think there's probably a better chance that they finish fourth than finish 10th. But
00:41:31
Speaker
I'm still not convinced that they're a true Elmos Cup contender unless they unless a de la Vega just blows our expectations out of the water at this point and he comes in on fire and lifts every maybe that and heck that's possible I don't if I'm the sounders I'm not banking on that
00:41:54
Speaker
more realistically, they need an additional player. And that's what we're effectively talking about, to be a real contender in this league. They need to bring in some talent. So, I don't know. Not the most uplifting place to end this, but that is probably the most honest place to end this. It is, yeah. I mean, I think that I worry about this stuff a lot. And I think that a lot of people in the fan base do.
00:42:24
Speaker
And it's been much harder for me to ignore the feeling that there is some bargaining in the sounders front office happening about, you know, being a little more aggressive and spending money versus longer term planning. It's kind of the elephant in the room. But hey, the games are better. So that's that's positive. They're more fun to watch. That's good. And we'll be here. I mean, we'll be here either way.
00:42:52
Speaker
That's true. We're kind of pot committed at this point. Yeah, we're kind of pot committed. But you know, it would be it would be fun to talk about
00:43:02
Speaker
this team being an MLS Cup contender too. It would, it would. But you know, nine big points coming up. Oh, yes. This this home stand, this upcoming home stand probably defines the season, I think. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Three winnable games. They've got FC Dallas on Saturday. They got Chicago Fire the week after that. And then they got New England Revolution the week after that.
00:43:26
Speaker
Yep. Those are nine very, very winnable points. I'm not saying they need all nine, but they probably need seven and nine is should be the goal. And if they get all nine. They're in great position. If they need, they need nine points to me to feel like.
00:43:49
Speaker
They, yeah, if they get seven, my perception of where they are doesn't change from where I'm at now, but I want to feel better. I guess, yeah, those are bad teams, though, man. They are bad teams. They are. They are three of the worst teams in the league. Yeah. And the Sounders have not have oftentimes played down to their opponent, which is not a good sign, but.
00:44:17
Speaker
If they want to be a good team, if they want it to be called a good team, they want us to believe they're a good team, this is the lowest bar. You got to beat the bad teams, especially at home. Yeah. And I think that the Dallas game is just going to be a huge vibe check because Dallas came off a nice win.
00:44:39
Speaker
Yeah, they have not won a game away all season. The only team left. I did not know that they have three points on the road all season. OK. And be bad. Pretty bad. Yeah. Good home team. They're sort of like the opposite of the sounders. Pretty pretty good home team just putrid on the road. Not the worst team that they're going to play in this run, but. A team that they have just got to feel like they need to be.
00:45:06
Speaker
And, uh, yeah, so I think how that game goes is going to be a good barometer for, you know, how, how people are going to be feeling for the rest of them Stan. Yeah. Well, let's hope they get started right. Cause they owe home fans and wins. Yeah. They've got, they've got quite a few of those IOUs floating around. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Conclusion and Future Podcast Plans
00:45:27
Speaker
That's for sure. All right. Well, that's a, that's a good place. I think to call it, to put a pin in this one, uh,
00:45:33
Speaker
Thank you to all our subscribers for making this all work. I guess we should do a little bit of a quick programming note. We decided we're not going to do the mailbag every week, at least until things get more interesting. So we're just going to kind of plan on doing them more like every month and see how that goes. Also, lobbying squirters, which you've hopefully listened to.
00:45:59
Speaker
It's the newest offering of the Sounder podcast network, Ari and Noah doing great work there. They also do kind of a mailbag segment with most of their shows. So we're kind of letting them take those weekly questions and we'll sort of save ours up for bigger picture things. So hopefully that works for everyone. But if you haven't listened to Lobbing Scorchers, you can either listen to it on the private RSS feed that we gum through,
00:46:29
Speaker
Or you can go to their public feed, which is separate from ours, and become a subscriber. I'm sure they would love that. But it's been great having them and having another podcast that's actually a little bit more
00:46:42
Speaker
immediately after the game. So people get that fixed as well. And we're going to try to sort of take a bigger picture view of things. So hopefully this, these are complimentary pieces. Um, but all that said, Aaron, it's been wonderful hanging out with you. Uh, thank you to lick it for, uh, producing this show. Thank you to full pool wines for sponsoring. I am Jeremiah Shan signing off for no sun yet. Remember you'll never get alone.
00:48:09
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!