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Week 15 Exit - Just a Bug
14 Plays1 year ago
chummy
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction
00:00:04
Speaker
Welcome to the Chopping Block, the guillotine league podcast made for you. but's a boys you are in for a good one today because big spence is not here
00:00:20
Speaker
but we ought to i got one of my homies to join we got jj on the line What's up, everybody?
Nickname Humor
00:00:27
Speaker
um The nickname of Mitch the Bitch is now being transferred to Spencer. Spencer's a bitch. Almost made it to the end of the season. He's checked out. ah Today's eliminated
Guest Introduction: Joel T.
00:00:41
Speaker
guest. ah put ah Put a Mike's Hard picture in the chat. And instead of it bringing good luck, it just summoned me into the pod. So that's where we're at. It was the summoning.
00:00:52
Speaker
Well, I'm not the only Joel here today. And we got Joel number two, Joel T. What's up, man? Yo, yo, yo, what up? It's the bug. It's the bug. You're just a bug. All right. Give me the background on this name.
Origin of 'Chummy Bug'
00:01:08
Speaker
ah Yeah. So ah in the seventh grade, I was at a friend's house.
00:01:13
Speaker
And we were making our fence diagrams for the first time. We were all trying to come up with names and I looked at my friend's wifi router and their wifi name was chummy bug eight one two. And that became my fence today. Wow. The wifi router. It's like the, like the default generated. Exactly. But it lives on.
00:01:33
Speaker
Wow. All right. Well, Mr. Just A Bug, ah you made it pretty far. You did get some pay dirt, a little bit of profit.
Guillotine League Experience
00:01:42
Speaker
ah Was all of that um worrying and strife all season worth it, like the $15 you made? You know, I would have done it for nothing. I loved this season. This was probably one of the most fun fantasy leagues I've ever played in.
00:01:59
Speaker
okay okay did it meet expectations uh from what you thought going in you know it exceeded expectations i really thought that it was going to be just another league that's kind of like in the back of my head but this is genuinely besides like my big dynasty league probably the league that i spent the most amount of time like thinking about throughout the season That's hype. That's hype. Well, you got a fourth, which is that's ah Spencer. Too bad he's not here. He's finished fourth twice. So he he he can empathize with you.
Success and Failure Discussion
00:02:35
Speaker
But what's what's that feeling? You feel like you succeeded. You feel like a failure. What's the vibe?
00:02:41
Speaker
You know, it's it's a little bit of both. um um My goal was to make the money. I wanted to make
Statistical Approach in League
00:02:48
Speaker
the money my first year. um But once I got down to like 10 players left, I felt like I was genuinely in a position where I could win it. And I know that's kind of like what everybody says. Like if they made it through one more week, they could have won it.
00:03:02
Speaker
But I feel like I'm a pretty like statistical analysis person. And I felt like that's how I did my picks. And that's how I allocated budget to be able to spend money. And I felt like I did a good job and things just didn't turn out the way that I expected them to, which is happens, but I mean, it sucks. JJ, are you envious of Joel for making a couple of spots farther than you?
00:03:27
Speaker
Um, I wouldn't say that I'm envious if I had never gotten to where, uh, to where Chummy has gone before than maybe so. Um, but I wouldn't say that I'm envious. Um, I think with, with any like.
00:03:44
Speaker
With any TV show, whether that's reality or like a season of a drama, I feel like you always have like this um this favorite character, right? Or if there's a new character, you're like, oh, that new character's my favorite. This year, we had a really good turnout for all of our new guys, right, Joel?
00:04:03
Speaker
And um I'd be lying if I didn't say that ah Chummy Bug was not my favorite newcomer this year. I felt like Chummy did a really good job. From the get-go, we had messaged, I think, a couple times during the draft. I thought it was hilarious. We're like two seconds into somebody's draft pick for our slow draft. Chummy was like, on the clock. Like, let's go, bro. on You're on the clock. My picks are the 18 picks. Let's get the fuck going. And so... uh from from the get-go chummy chummy was one of my favorites and i'm i'm glad uh that he made it all the way to uh to the end basically uh sorry not the actual end but pretty close but chummy my question for you is now that you've done an entire season of uh guillotine what would you tell your former self uh at the beginning of the draft at the beginning of everything
00:04:56
Speaker
Um, you know, I, I messaged Joel before the draft right after we got our positions. And I said, yo, 13th position.
Draft Position Concerns
00:05:05
Speaker
This is asked that I feel like this is the worst possible position that you can have. Cause you're not getting like one of those top tier guys, but you're also not getting like two guys in the mid tier. You're getting like a mid tier guy. And then you're also kind of getting like a.
00:05:19
Speaker
third tier guy which is like shit so I was like fuck like this 13th position is like the worst possible position to draft in and if I could tell myself one thing to start over is don't even worry about your draft because it's not really even gonna matter okay okay that's good um I heard that you were preparing something what where were you preparing um So I'm a big stats guy. um I put not
Player Bids and Performance Analysis
00:05:54
Speaker
a lot of time. I actually didn't finish everything that I wanted to do, but I took down um every single player that I bid on this season, how much I bid on them, and then how much that money allocated towards points. So essentially like the statistical analysis of how much a bid
00:06:14
Speaker
directly correlated to how much that player was worth in a points basis. um And then I also did the statistics on what the odds are for one of my players to have this worst game of the year, three of my players to have their second worst game of the year, and one player to have their third worst game of the year. And that is 0.12% chance.
00:06:39
Speaker
So for all five of my players, that three placed in their second worst, one their worst and another their third worst for all of those to happen in one week is a 0.12% chance of happening. So the odds were not in your favor. Correct. Very, very unlikely scenario that happened this week.
00:07:00
Speaker
So do you have like points per dollar or dollar per points? So I started to do it and I work just got busy, but I do have it for like five players. All right. Give us give us the five. um So I have I have all of my first. I'm just going to read all of the the players that I bought and how much I spent on them, just so you guys can kind of just play me in the chat. ah Lowest price player that I bought was McBride for six dollars.
00:07:27
Speaker
Crazy at a nine Mitchell $8 Derek Henry $9 Roma doons a 14 Joshua downs 36 Tyree kill 52 Malik neighbors 69 mix in 78 Collins 117 Jonathan Brooks 119 Pickens 172 and CMC 313 or 312 Holy, you made some terrible pickups. Yes, I believe that I drafted the worst in the league because I ended up just dropping Amari Cooper and Patrick Mahomes, who were my second and my third pick. So not only did I draft the worst in the league, but I wasted the most fab of anybody in the league. I wasted four hundred over $450 on less than 30 points of production.
00:08:21
Speaker
That's pretty funny. Yeah, so I'd like statistically I was the word besides the players that just didn't use their fab For money spent for production that did not equate to anything. I wasted the most more money than anybody else in the league Is the key to waste fab on purpose? That new strategy year to waste fab on purpose no's taking his said no No, it's not Now, i went in I went in with the goal to not be afraid to spend money, to make sure that I would get in the top six. um And the players that I spent money on, CMC and Brooks, who were two of my highest three paid players, that's $431 right there. that did not acquaint it It equated to a total of 40.3 points over four games that I played them.
00:09:15
Speaker
Yeah, that's pretty tough. Yeah. It's just wasted fab. Who was the best buy then? Um, a hundred percent without a question. My best buy was Joe mixin. Okay. Okay. At $78 and he, he produced 85.3 points over five games. Okay. Hell yeah. Hell yeah. All right. So nothing too crazy, but yeah.
00:09:43
Speaker
Well, we're at that point where looking at bids means less and less because nobody's got no money. But we'll take a teeny little peek here. Take a peek. Your team is stacked, of course. Top four. It's always going to be stacked. The storyline here is that Mitch didn't bid.
00:10:06
Speaker
How are we feeling about this?
Strategic Bidding and Missed Opportunities
00:10:08
Speaker
You know, um it kind of disappointed me that he didn't bid because I felt like if he threw one to three dollars across four or five guys, I think that he could lock it in for not a guaranteed win because at this point it's kind of just whoever performs, but he could at least put enough enough guys on his bench that it would make it very hard for either of the other guys to be able to compete.
00:10:35
Speaker
Yeah, I mean it gets it gets pretty tough at this point because you're you're basically playing dfs Like you can you can choose from a wide gambit of players You know, you you probably can't choose tuah because normally he's got pandiculation going on But uh andiculation, what the fuck was that? JJ knows what that means andiculation. Yeah, I will I want to see what spencer thinks of pandiculation, but Uh, great, great use of the word. paniculation joel Thank you. Thank you, JJ. Um, yeah, I mean, there's, there's plenty of players to pick up. So it's kind of a crab shoot. I, I think it's like, honestly, like a big Haas play. I know he did it on accident, but it'd be kind of funny if he just like, nah, fuck it. I don't want these players, which I mean, low key you forget. And with the final three and guillotine, ah Mitch may be a little confident. Yeah.
00:11:30
Speaker
who do you think that the winner of this week was like as far as fabulous i mean it's gotta be gary spend zero dollars on her brother uh... we got he took half my team yeah he did he got the guys i mean derrick henry's great joe mixon uh... is he hurt he's fine i don't know he might be fine uh... i can't remember who else did this but somebody else before it got to like the bidding, they wrote down in their notes who they thought was going to go first. like who Who was going to like go bidding wise in what order they would be spent. and I did the same thing. and kind and I think that there's some prizes some surprises on like discrepancy on what should have happened and what happened.
00:12:20
Speaker
Okay, we got two money bids. So, Barkley and Hill, and the rest are zeros. Would Barkley and Hill sit in your hierarchy? So, Barkley is number one. I think that he should have been the only player that should have been bid on this week. um But I do not think that Hill should have ever been bid on. Hill is the seventh player on my list.
00:12:46
Speaker
o just because he has not produced at all this season. I believe that he's what lost me in my league or this league, not my league. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Hey, you get this deep starts to feel like you own it.
Bidding Surprises and Strategies
00:12:58
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, I was surprised that Henry and Collins and mixing, I could see all of those guys going for $1 and I was surprised that off the bat, nobody picked up Brock Bowers.
00:13:13
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, Garrett ended up just getting them for free. Tied in number one. Yeah. Um, we got, you know, we got Austin, we got Garrett, we got Mitch. Um, instead of doing a, you know, uh, you know, like who's going to win, who's going to lose type of deal. I'll get that from you. But, uh, what do you think, uh, the odds are of each of these guys taking it home?
00:13:43
Speaker
you know that's telling you let me look at it really quick I gotta do it run it run a quick stats analysis I run the numbers I get it yeah um well I actually had one big strategy coming into this year especially with it being a half PPR leak and that's that I was gonna try and load stud running backs because studs, even when they don't produce, they're still gonna put up 12, 13 points. And that's worked for me every week until this point. um And they all just flopped this week. So with that analysis going in, I think that Garrett actually has a fairly okay chance to win this league. But I think that the clear winner based off of that will have to be Austin.
00:14:36
Speaker
Okay. Okay. Why, why are you getting that vibe from Austin? Just cause of the running backs are crazy. I mean, James Connor has a soft schedule, scheduled the rest of the season. Saquon is raw as fuck. Jameer Gibbs now with Demont out is going to be a high producer and Josh Jacob is hitting his stride at the end of the season. Okay. I think that he should drop Tyree killed him and put in Jerry duty.
00:15:06
Speaker
I didn't I didn't I tell him to do something last week and he did the opposite and I was like wrong. So last week you told him to pick up Brian Thomas Jr. I listened to the pod first. I picked him up and dropped him so that he couldn't pick him up until Saturday.
00:15:26
Speaker
Some sneaky shit going on Uh, yeah, I mean hey I was right btj I went nutsomo this week. So maybe you should have just kept them You you would have wouldn't have been talking to us. Yeah So so your little your sneakiness bitch in the butt Tsk tsk All right. Um Does Mitch is Mitch still the favor or not anymore? You think it's a crapshoot?
00:15:54
Speaker
You know, I think it's just whatever team performs. I think even going into last week, I think it's really whatever team performs on any given day can be any given team. I think his team has the highest potential to score the most amount of points on any given week, but I would not count out the other guys based off of their match-ups.
00:16:18
Speaker
and Okay. Okay. JJ, what's the vibe you're getting? If you just put your hand over your phone and close your eyes, like what are you feeling? I feel I i thought I was a numbers guy. I'm nowhere close to a numbers guy compared to chummy bug. Um, I think though, historically, at least in our four years existing of guillotine, uh, The way that things are trending Mitch is gonna take this because of how much he's been able to navigate the waivers How much how he's still the one that has money? I'm with chummy bug that last one dollar should not have been spent on Tyreek Hill the money for sake one That's great sake one's a great addition um But
00:17:02
Speaker
Yeah. Um, I, I am in agreement in terms of like, I hope, I don't i don't know who told me wants to win, but like, I hope Garrett wins. I i love seeing that Austin still in there. Uh, but I think that's what the way things have gone for us. I don't know if you can agree, but, uh, Mitch, Mitch is looking strong. Mitch is looking strong and he, he has shown, I think except for the week that I got out, no weakness. He has shown no weakness. So we'll see.
00:17:30
Speaker
Okay. Oh, we lost Joel. Oh, he's back. I totally cut out there. That's fine. That was like, that was a quick, I didn't even have to cut the pod for that one. No, I got you dog. All right. Give us a, give us a verdict. Who do you think is going to be talking to us nick next week? Next week.
00:17:54
Speaker
This sucks. Cause I like all these guys. They're good guys. Yeah, I don't know any of them personally. But I mean, they're good. They're nice guys.
Impact of Austin's Decisions
00:18:07
Speaker
um You know, I think that there's one thing that's going to decide who's going to win this league or who's going to lose this week. And I really think it comes down to what Austin is willing to do. And I think Austin will either be out next week with starting Tyree Kill Or he'll start Jerry Judy the rest of the season and win the whole thing. Holy. All right. All right. So I don't think that he's going to drop Tyree Kill. And I'm going to say that he's going to be speaking to you next week. OK. All right. Who out of Mitch and Garrett is going to take it home? Give me Garrett. Oh.
00:18:54
Speaker
All right. I think if he improves his bucky Irving spot or if he even just decides to start one of his other players, um preferably ah a high producing running back, that's getting a high workload. I think his team
Predictions and Optimizations
00:19:09
Speaker
is good enough to outperform anybody on any any given week, partially because he has my entire roster.
00:19:17
Speaker
Hey, he's got BTJ as well, so that could end up good for him.
00:19:24
Speaker
All right, closing thoughts. Don't leave anything left unsaid. What do you got to tell the people? You know, I I just appreciate all of the people that told me that they thought I could win on this podcast. um I really shout out to the fans. um You were supporters from day one and I will continue to support you in every every league and every year from now on.
00:19:52
Speaker
If I ever get eliminated earlier than fourth. Um, so JJ, thank you. I appreciate you. Um, and yeah, I'm not going to start any beef other than Eddie's a bitch, what so but other than that, um, yeah, the whole league's awesome. And I just closing thought was that, um, this year, um, I was the superior Joel. Yeah.
00:20:22
Speaker
you sure were you sure were it was a close call i literally i was putting down the the rankings and i wrote joel parentheses me i had to do that Uh, so yeah, back to back. That was a close one. That was a close one. yeah Um, well, boys, you made it this far. So Joel's going to tell you what emoji to drop in the chat. Oh, give me one second. I didn't even think about this. This is crucial though. I know there's going to be the bug in there, but I got to decide what I want before the bug. Yeah. What's chummy. I'm thinking like a trash can, but
00:21:05
Speaker
Yeah, give me give me the the metal trash can and a the little green bug. Hell yeah. Chummy bug. Metal trash can, green bug. Yeah.