Transcript
Speaker: All right, ah we are live. Welcome guys to the Savage Boston podcast. We are here is July 14 in the middle of, we said, absolute dead zone.
Speaker: and We knew it was going to be dead zone, but you know, this is as planned. um But yeah, man, it's not a whole lot going on. um I guess, you know, we had a little bit of like Jalen Brown drama there for a minute, which was interesting.
Speaker: He had something going on you know, keep us entertained after all the A.J. Brown stuff. but ah But now, yeah, it's dead zone. And we're coming up on, um you know, we've got Pat's training camp starting in Saturday. 11 days.
Speaker: Yeah, 11 days. Saturday We've got a bunch of rookies to report in a week, you know. So there's stuff coming in. it'll get it'll It'll blow up again. We'll have more entertainment, have some more fun, which would be really cool.
Speaker: um But yeah, it's you know what I mean? it's It's not, it is what it is. This is, like we said, man, this is this is Dead Zone. we We know what it is. um What's up? Yeah, so I think what I wanted to address first, because it was funny the other day, and I think it was something where um we had that like Christian Gonzalez, Greg Bedard drama.
Speaker: and uh you know and again i'm not here just to like just to crap on bedard that's not the point of this although he did make like a 25 minute um youtube like semi-apology video about christian gonzalez um where he multiple times uh hated on our account slash brand slash website whatever um you know and sorry just ah again i'm here with sudi and brett from savage boston.com usual co-host um So anyway, so the irony of this thing, what I wanted to address with the Bedard and Christian Gonzalez drama was, you know, I was listening to his to his podcast. Like, it's the morning. I was on a walk. I'm like, all right, Bedard put in a new podcast. Sure, let me listen. See what he has to say.
Speaker: And and it casually he says something like, you know, um Christian Gonzalez, you know, some people thought he's not physical enough, you know, and then he started after he says, you know, and the the Patriots coaches also don't think he's physical enough.
Speaker: I was like, oh shoot. I was like, really? Like I was I was surprised. You know what i mean? I was I was surprised that he wasn't considered physical enough. um And and yeah, so it was interesting that.
Speaker: So I tweeted out and sorry, in the middle of the story, I'm going to let on, we have a guest coming tonight too. I'm going I'm gonna add them here. We got Ryan Paganetti. What's going on, Ryan? How are you? How's it going?
Speaker: What's up, man? Thanks for popping in. So, um, I was in the middle of, uh, uh, saying, uh, a dramatic rendering of some Christian Gonzalez drama we had this week, but we got with us today and this will be a good time. I'll just segue into it. We got Ryan Paganetti popping in with us. We appreciate him taking the time.
Speaker: He's a guy's been blowing up on social media lately, right, Ryan? We've been having a big, a big, a big week. You're, you're making a big, Big Twitter, big Twitter push after I guess you've been working with Eagles, Jaguars, Raiders and in your Twitter bio, Super Bowl winning NFL strategist and um analytics guy. So, yeah, I appreciate you coming on, man. Tell us us a little bit about yourself and and what you're up to.
Speaker: Yeah, so umm I'm from Massachusetts, actually from Bedford, Mass. So kind of an interesting background there. um i went to i went to Bedford High School, then I went to Belmont Hill School for anyone familiar in the Boston area. But I went to Dartmouth up ah up in New Hampshire. So I'm like a New England guy all all in on that world. and I got my start with the Eagles and I kind of was doing the whole analytics game management thing for Doug Peterson. Just so happened to play the Patriots in the Super Bowl, which was the craziest thing you could ever imagine being up from you know New England. i had all these friends from Massachusetts you know trying to get tickets and then you know they got to the game and they're all wearing Patriots stuff. and I'm like, what the? you know Come on, guys. But, um you know, and then I went to the Jaguars and I was doing analytics there. And then I did this last year and the and with the Raiders. And, you know, we were our team wasn't very good. We somehow managed to beat the Patriots week one, which was kind of a miracle. Part of that was Christian Gonzalez did not play. But it was a really cool experience. And and i
Speaker: It kind of wore me out a little bit. I'm, um you know, maybe hoping to try to do the the media route and I've got some consulting opportunities and, you know, just kind of sharing some of my research over the years. It seems like there's a lot of interest in some of the things that I'm saying and I'm kind of having fun with it.
Speaker: Yeah, man. So, I mean, what, so what do you say? It's just kind like burning me out, so to speak? Like, it's just the hours. Yeah, like, just to give you an example, you know, obviously we were, like, we were not, the Raiders team was not good. And, like, we had some okay players entering the year. And then really right off the bat, like, Brock Bowers had a pretty major knee injury that first week against the Patriots. And he kind of tried to,
Speaker: like tough through it and it was like he he was sort of hamstrung um col colton miller was by far our best off offensive lineman he went down week four and he was done for the year the second best lineman went down a little bit after that he was done for a while um and max had a really made you know he had a meaningful injury that he basically was just such a tough guy he played through but the roster just really didn't have depth anyway so like we were just kind of down the stretch we we we looked okay you know week one but but we just were sort of overwhelmed and um just like for The people listening, like you're working 15-hour days if you're in the NFL. and like You don't get a weekend. like It's seven days a week. and like you know For example, you'll fly to you'll fly to Massachusetts or you'll fly to Washington to play the Commanders. and Then the game ends. You just fly back. and Then you're expected to work 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. the following day. and Then the next day and the next day. and
Speaker: it it it physically kind of wears on you. I've got some health things that I also was like emphasizing there that I was like, what am I doing with my life type thing? But um reaching the top, like getting to the level of Super Bowl already and like being fortunate enough to win it, like that sort of motivated me me a little bit more to try to maybe go this route as opposed to all the people that are really kind of aiming to reach that pinnacle and haven't necessarily got there yet.
Speaker: um But, you know, yeah I'm having a ton of fun. I'm meeting all these people I've never met. Like, I don't know any of you guys, but like, you know, I'd love to get it to get to know everybody. um And I appreciate like the platforms because I know like when you start out on social media, you really just come from nothing. And like, yeah you know, it was a couple two weeks ago I had like 8,000 followers or something and today I have 45,000 and it's like what the hell is going on and and this is supposed to be like the the least busy time of the year so you you know maybe that continues, I don't know but um I'm having fun with it. I always keep up with the with the you know New England Patriots, Boston Celtics, like all those different teams because that's really kind of where I grew up and yeah I was so blown away when New england England went from that first game to basically just crushing it through the season and going all the way to the Super Bowl. you know it
Speaker: they there were they just didn't have it that day. you know And part of it, we kind of actually concealed that week one game. We we didn't show a single thing in the preseason. and We had Chip coming from college. We had Pete joining on with Pat Graham. So like no one really knew, were they going to play cover three? where they going to Pat Graham stuff? So we had a little bit of like a strategic advantage there.
Speaker: as like a surprise factor, but you know, they, and Drake, I don't know if it was the weather or whatever, things were a little bit out of sync for the offense in that game. But, um you know, obviously New england England got it together. And I think really, you know, the sky's the limit. I've always had the utmost respect for Rabel and Josh McDaniels in terms of like head coach, play caller, like that's an amazing combination to have. um And, you know,
Speaker: you know you feel great about kind of the direction of the team with with that coaching leadership plus you know a young quarterback that's like MVP caliber. It's got to be like a really exciting time. Yeah, man. I mean, obviously, you know you've experienced in the league. I mean, you know me personally, I had a friend who not just like interned with the past back in the college days. and We're talking like long you know a little while ago now. And and he he talked about just, well, A, he said he talked about how nice of a guy personally Tom Brady was.
Speaker: yeah My friend is literally a therapist in the training room, right? And so he talked how Brady, ah it went up to every single person in the room, shook their hand and said, hey, I'm Tom.
Speaker: Didn't matter who you were. To my friend, my friend was just starstruck by how nice Brady was in person, which is awesome. you know I think that's really cool. but um But yeah, the hours, man, the time, and and and people often ask you if you're in, you know let's say, a trainer in healthcare, care you know why don't you go but i should go work for a pro team? And I was like, I wanna have a life.
Speaker: You know, right i like i have a I have a wife, like I got kids, like I need i need to have a wife. Yeah, people totally underestimate the sacrifices these coaches make, you know, and and even front office people make in terms of not seeing their families. Like they, it's, yeah you know, yeah there's you know even some of these players and, you know, that you know it's it's low the the the coaching hours are probably the most extreme, but like you have coaches that in many cases they might get a new job and there's so much turnover with coaching staffs that they'll leave their their their kids, you know,
Speaker: at their previous place. Like we had a coach that was like in Washington and then he comes to Las Vegas, then he leaves his kids back in Washington. And then, you know, all these different, there's all these different variables. And then I think what people underestimate is like when there's coaching turnover, the people that get impacted the most are like the younger coaches and even the children, you know, like Pete Carroll's, you know, he's going to be fine. Like he's got a lot of money.
Speaker: and he's down like later in his career. But like when you think of like this quality control guy, he he might you know he might lose his health insurance, or this guy has to explain why he's got to move his kids' schools, and there's like uncertainty. and there and you know Those are real things that I think, you know obviously the fans are so passionate about winning, and they want their teams to be good, but and like you know they're overly you know critical when it's not going well.
Speaker: But it's really those kind of... There's that subset of population that really gets impacted the most that I try to like bring some visibility to that. like when you're When people are sitting there saying, this guy's the worst. For example, you know the the Patriots chose to move on from Gerard Mayo after one year, and you know they made that decision, and Gerard Mayo's going to make a lot of money regardless.
Speaker: paid out by the Patriots. But I'd imagine there's some employees there that are that worked 100 something hours a week for very little money and they lost their jobs, too. And like those are the people that I think, you know, it it really got the short end of the stick because they might be great at their jobs, but ultimately, like, you know, they they they fall kind of responsible with, you know, whatever the leadership, you know, whatever happens with the leadership. So it's ah it's an interesting dynamic. And going this route like i can live wherever i want i can come up to massachusetts whenever i want like i can't you can't do that in and the in the season you can't be like i'm gonna go for the weekend like no it doesn't happen the weekend you're traveling or you're getting ready for the game like it's it's a non-stop cycle so i'm excited about kind of going this direction and you know even being able to pay attention more to the patriots because when you're working for a team you're so locked in on your team and self-scouting it and scouting the next opponent and you know you you can't really keep up on those teams that maybe you grew up supporting
Speaker: So on you when you were with the with the Raiders, um were you scouting like one specific side of the ball? Were you doing or an analytical side of the ball? So actually, it's it's funny. um you know Pete, but I was going to get on here earlier, but Pete Carroll actually just tweeted at me. And it was like, I had to deal with that. That was kind of crazy. But he just like has a casual 1.8 million followers. Just casual. worries. Yeah. So he like he's like not the best like with his phone and stuff. So i'm like, ah well, is there spelling errors? What's going on here? but um ah basically the idea was like i almost was like serving as like associate head coach type role so he just made up a title of head coach research specialist and his attitude was just help me out with everything like i have any requests special teams coach you know draft free agency offense defense this game plan idea i want to run this concept look into you know what brian flores is doing or whatever and it was really fun and it was awesome and um you know we just the
Speaker: I've never been part of a team that just felt so physically overmatched from like a roster standpoint and the cool thing is that a lot of NFL organizations when things go bad like a lot of times the the culture really erodes and like it's a real negative atmosphere but Pete is the man and like kept it as positive as possible and like he just has this like optimistic mindset to try to make sure everybody still sort of enjoyed coming into work even when things you know weren't necessarily going as we hoped yeah I got you I'm curious because I know Snooty's a big offensive lineman guy, and when we heard you were coming on, we started talking about just your takes and tweets on that side of the ball. what do What's been your thoughts so far with how the Patriots have kind of approached the last two-year rebuild and essentially what Brable's been focusing on with the offensive line, getting Lomu this year, obviously Campbell last year. What's been your overall thoughts on their approach with the offensive line and the guys they've gotten?
Speaker: So my my six year stretch in Philadelphia, it was the ultimate example case of how valuable the offensive line is. And not even just the top end guys, but you want to be excellent with your backup spots because they play. I just did a tweet about this. deal I don't know what it was yesterday or something.
Speaker: the total amount of snaps in a typical season that your sixth lineman plays is like over 400, just whether it's from injuries or poor play and he has to step in, whatever, whatever plays out. And then, you know, the but many cases teams are down to their seventh or eighth guy.
Speaker: and and most of those snaps are happening like in the playoffs because the guy, you know, goes down week 11 and he's out for the year, whatever it is. But, um, O-line quarterback combination. Like if you told me like, I want to fix a team immediately, i would, I would say I'm getting those six spots addressed first.
Speaker: And then I'm figuring everything else out because whether you take a running back or a receiver or, you know, even like defensive, there's, there's a lot of variables that if your quarterback is not upright and you can't like run basic run plays because the line is losing, then like everything about your team erodes and even us even on the defense because you end up punk you go three and out more and they're facing more possessions or you know they they can't you know if your offense is scoring points your defense can really tee off in the pass rush you know as you're getting leads like that was the whole peyton manning thing forever where they have these speed pass rushers because they would get leads but if they're if you're losing like they have to sit there and they have to honor the run game and they have to you know they're always kind of playing Against the eight ball or they might have to start blitzing more to try to come back and then you know You're giving up more points and so it really to me is like the identity of the team is that group up front and obviously having the quarterback like it's you can't just have five great linemen and then have you know a guy who's like an
Speaker: has no business starting in the NFL. Like you're not going to be able to do anything. Like, so obviously, you know, you got to be good there. The Patriots hopefully are good there for like the next 10 to 15 years, just, you know, based on how the pick has gone so far.
Speaker: um but you know, I, I liked the attitude by Vrabel and I, know, he's, he's, uh, He's won a lot of games in his career. And I mean, I think he won. Did he win the coach? He won the coach of the year, didn't he? or Or he was up there, obviously. and yeah he doesn't um but But, you know, addressing that immediately, I thought, was was the right move. And it's really kind of... It's not the glamour pick, but it's really the one that...
Speaker: all of a sudden you're in week 12, week 14, and teams are down to like their their fourth guard and practice squad guys are getting promoted and they have to block Miles Garrett. And it's just like a disaster. and like when you've invested there and have like that kind of insurance policy, you you at least have a fighting chance you get into the playoffs and and you really can potentially have, you know, a more respectable unit. And even, you know, I think it's hard not to ignore like when the Patriots did struggle in the playoffs, you know, you saw the line really what you know had some limitations there.
Speaker: so um I think it was the right kind of approach to keep attacking that. So from just from a local perspective, you know, probably the most controversial player or one of the most controversial players last year was Will Campbell. um Some of us are more bullish on him still, despite the up and down year he had last year. i' just is interested to see if you kind of what your thoughts were of him going into the year and then if you've had a chance to kind of look at how he was last year.
Speaker: Yeah, I know he got some visibility early on, or sorry, ah you know, later on there were some struggles, particularly like in the high profile moments. I didn't watch it closely enough on a week to week basis. The fact that he could step in as a a rookie and start a meet, that's a really hard job. And you're going up against some really exceptional players.
Speaker: And you guys would know better than me. I think there was some vague reference to, to you know, maybe some lingering injury that may have gone on. I think one went when people evaluate these guys and what they're putting out on the field, you know, one really underestimated component is some of these guys are playing through things and whether it's like entirely reported accurately or like it's, ah you know, whether it's, it's, that there's like, you hear like, all right, he's got a little knee issue. Well, sometimes that knee issue is like pretty significant, but the team is like not necessarily disclosing that. Okay. He literally tore his LCL or whatever it is, or, you know, they're, there's so there's cases where some of these players like put film out there that doesn't look that good but they're almost like sacrificing for the organization it's a very interesting dynamic you know some of the guys do want to play there's some cases where the guy's about to be a free agent and he's he's got a you know semi-significant injury and they also don't want to play because they don't want to necessarily put out bad tape and there's that whole world but i think you know i think he's
Speaker: ah you you usually see a pretty solid jump year one to year two with some of these offensive linemen. And then one of the nice things when you take an offensive lineman is um you know, you can kind of move, potentially if you need to, you can move them around.
Speaker: Like if things aren't working out at left tackle, like you can potentially experiment in some other locations as opposed to like, if you draft a tight end and he's not working out, like you can't just move him, you're not moving him to receiver or running back.
Speaker: Like, so and I think there' it's an interesting deal with that. And ultimately they'll probably just get their best five guys out there. And, you know, I wouldn't, it'll be interesting to see how that goes with him.
Speaker: Now with with Campbell, just to follow up on that. um So yes, Campbell did get hurt. And obviously you guys listen to this podcast in the middle of July right now, which is dead zone are are like Patriot sickos, I'm sure. um So you know what i mean? it' So like they're all aware that he got hurt.
Speaker: the The problem is that obviously my problem with it, and this is not so much about analytics, it's that if truly he was not ready to go in the postseason, um they shouldn't have been playing him. I mean, it feels like that, that simple to me, right? Like it, like if, if he had a tear and he didn't have enough power in his knee to anchor,
Speaker: right at left tackle to, to play competent football against, let's say the Texans who we know have a amazing defensive line or, or the Seahawks who equally have an amazing defensive line, right? Like if he doesn't have the strength there to anchor, he shouldn't have been playing. And to me, that's like, that was a gripe I had with variable. I just think ultimately I know Vidarian low wasn't great, but that was just something where um I kind of keep beating this drum. It just wasn't, I didn't like the decision-making. That being said, um you know, back to Campbell, the just the tackle guard thing, from your perspective, do you put a lot of stock in that type of like,
Speaker: arm length metric from just the analytics perspective, you know, like being below 33 inches, whatnot, really does seem to push you more towards playing guard versus anchoring at left tackle. So did you have any thoughts of his actual physical build? And do you think he would make a better guard than tackle in the future?
Speaker: I think that, you know, that it's ah it's an interesting variable. I've worked with some offensive line coaches that, you know, are so adamant. they Their attitude is, if this guy's arms are not this length, I don't want anything to do with him. Now, I think that's a little bit too extreme there. You know, maybe, you know, there's, there's, there's kind of edge cases where it makes sense or it doesn't make, make sense for a certain guy.
Speaker: But what I would say there is that he um it's, I think it matters, but at the end of the day, like, I wouldn't just blindly assume this guy's in your building, he cannot play tack. Like you you get tons and tons of practice reps where you can see like, is it viable? Is it really gonna be an issue? There's always a predict projection factor from college to pro. There's been some successful guys over the years at times that that that did have shorter arms. You're probably going up a little bit against the percentages. But I will say from a big picture value standpoint,
Speaker: like sort of an an analytics viewpoint that I had sort of had over the years is that the more multi-position linemen you can get, the better. Like the worst thing is when you have, oh this guy's a right tackle only and there's five positions and he can't play any of the other ones.
Speaker: but when you have a guy who can go left or right you have a guy that can go you know there i think that good example was there was a guy named cole van lanon for the jaguars these last couple of years and he could play left tackle left guard right guard right tackle and basically be your your and he was started as a backup i think they actually paid him a lot of money this last year during the year but the ability to provide like functional performance at all those roles like maybe you're not dominating it can be so critical because you just simply do not know who's going to go down And um or, you know, even if it's for two games here and there, you know, I think what, ah you know, we you had this the Chiefs a couple of years ago were starting their left guard at left tackle in the Super Bowl, you know, things like that.
Speaker: um But the the the one position only guys that it's it's problematic from like a roster standpoint, just in terms of How many do you carry on the roster? Like your depth guys, you know, if if this depth guy is really a right tackle only and also your left tackle goes down, do you take your starting right tackle and move them over and try to do like a science project to address it and all that? So um I think it's it's an interesting argument and in a situation. um I think if he ends up having a kick inside and ends up being, you know, a top 10 level guard in the NFL, like i I think people, you know, maybe it's not the perfect situation, but you still have to be happy that the pick is like not a failure.
Speaker: And I think in some regards, that's kind of what made him, I know a guard at four, whatever pick he was, like that's not a traditional spot for for good value, quote unquote, for there. But to your point, I think the fact that he could project to slide inside is probably what made that feel like a safer pick and thus a little bit better re value pick at that spot.
Speaker: Because he could kind of play inside. i don't think he's a right tackle. I think he's more left. If he's going to play tackle, i think he's left. um But he could play inside as well. um To that, I know you kind of said something about, you know, they um you know developmental pieces and things like that. Like, did do teams face, they like, how differently do teams kind of view taking someone, you know, who could be a developmental piece? And like, how much do they weigh that against someone who could like impact now, but like, provide more of an impact now, but kind of less value in the future, so to speak?
Speaker: I think you definitely see that. And there's there's a a little ah disagreement at times between front office and coaches. And part of that is you know when you have sort of different, the different groups involved in the decision-making process are potentially on different timeframes. you know If you might have a general manager that's trying to make the best team in 2029 and your head coach is just trying to win a game.
Speaker: And so i think that you you run into those scenarios. The front offices usually are leaning more towards ah like the longer term upside players, but you you run into you also won can run into issues at times when they're overly into that and the you get your coaching staff that is has an attitude of, you know were we're we're hired here to win games and you know you're are you are you selecting players for the next head coach? yeah for you know for the next head coach So it's always an interesting dynamic.
Speaker: I'm really curious. So totally coming off of the offensive line side, I know last year was a big topic. Basically teams looking at, do we kick and go for it? Or do we try to go for it and forth down?
Speaker: And it seems like more and more the analytics are telling them to go for it and forth down. And there are times that you look at it and you just question, stretch your head. Like, why did they do that? Some of them were like gain costing moves. Like what happened with the bills? When you look at that one and go back and say, well, why wouldn't they have just kicked the ball? Why did they go try to go for and forth down? So,
Speaker: Or the Broncos in the playoffs too. Yeah. I'm just curious, like, has that been a conversation piece? Like, why do you think that is that everyone seems to be trending that way seemingly across the league to say on fourth down, we're going to go for it rather than take the points and get the field goal because that's what the analytics are saying.
Speaker: yeah Well, um if you guys to um if you look back at a little bit of my background, when I was in Philadelphia with Doug Peterson, we went for 25% more fourth downs than anybody in the league in that time frame. And like you remember the ones in the Super Bowl. and and and um and i'm not And it's totally fine. I totally understand and respect your question. But the idea being the the real key is that based off of all the available data that you have when you're making that decision, which of the options give you the highest probability to win? And what you basically described there, which i I totally respect is like, you know, things, the sequence that occurs after that moment, you don't really have control over. Like you're just, you're going off of the information you have available when said decision was made.
Speaker: so um You know as teams go for more of these there's gonna be more instances when they fail and then they're gonna there's those are gonna be like a lightning rod of criticism Like they should have went there. They should have went there. I pointed out that in the Super Bowl um You know that the Patriots actually had they had a fourth and one at their own 41 yard line in the third quarter was 12 to 0 They actually had thought they've started out second and one they got stuffed third and one they went drop back pass with some I don't really think there's much data support for doing that like teams are not really you using drop back passes on third and ones and those kind of situations. If they do throw it, a lot of times it's off of a play action because the league is kind of run there.
Speaker: But then on fourth down, they decided to punt. And every analytics model I've looked at would consider that to be a situation that you actually should go for it. And i think in hindsight, you look at it and it's like, OK, well, they they really were struggling. They had zero points basically going into the fourth quarter.
Speaker: you know, the third the the moments when it fails get criticized immensely, but like some of the moments when the team just elects to punt and loses anyways, like no one really even talks about those. But um those moments like do, I think, matter as well. And there ah absolutely are some teams, like there's different fourth down models and different teams. I've seen some of the ones that teams have and they're like actually terrible and I feel bad for their coach because they're using information that's like wrong And, um you know, a lot of these coaches don't know anybody. They're just like, oh, analytics says go for it. And they're using something that's like saying go for fourth and six. And it should say go for only fourth and two or less.
Speaker: And i actually i i have questions at times about some of the decisions that the Patriots make. You know, they generally were pretty aggressive on the balance for the year. But there was a couple that. were a little bit a little bit odd in terms of like how extreme they were and I sort of wondered like what's going on there but everyone who thinks that there's like one secret analytical thing that says exactly when you go for it that's not the case there's like depending on what assumptions you make is yours factoring in the spread like the models I would use would factor in the spread or you'd consider things like extreme score margins like ah you know if the if the the total for the game was projected to be really low because
Speaker: bad weather or really high because both teams are really good. Like these sorts of variables matter and some other team might not be using that or they might be, you know, calculating things a certain way or, so it's, it's an interesting world that people are, I can promise you people are going to continue to go for these things at a high rate. Um, it's just that,
Speaker: um so In some cases, the model that I had actually had had a number of teams going for fourth downs that my thing said, like, kick a field goal or said punt, which I thought was really interesting because even five years ago, there would usually be the entire season, there would be, like, zero instances of that happening where people would be, like, more aggressive than what analytics, you know, says.
Speaker: So it's an interesting world. Yeah. So, I mean, I have I have strong feelings on it only because i understand the goal. The goal for the analytics are in some way to take some emotion out of it. Right. To to say, hey, we're ah we're basing our opinion off of data that it gives us the best chance to win. Right. Like that's like the crux of it. Like we want to make choices that give us the best chance to win. The problem is I think the data, like we said, it doesn't, it can't account for all human emotion.
Speaker: And I think this is the, this is the hardest part. Like for instance, if it says, okay, all fourth and ones or a certain amount of fourth and ones, you should be running the football on. You should be, you know, you're trying to convert on fourth and one, but You know, when you when you miss, you know, when you miss a fourth and one, and you can tell me from if I'm wrong, Ryan, because I'm sure I am.
Speaker: But if you miss a fourth and one on your own 38-yard line, okay, the emotion of that, the emotional swing, can the analytics take into account how devastating that is to an offense and how that affects your morale the rest of the game? You know what i mean?
Speaker: Yeah, it's it's an it's an interesting discussion. And like this really dominated the the narrative for a long time in terms of why teams did not go for it. And then what if like, ah like and and what I would say is If somebody can find a tangible stat that shows like how the momentum gets impacted, I would love to see it. Like it is absolutely a deflating thing when you go for a fourth down and don't get it. Those ones on your own side of the field are the highest leverage. When it's good, it's great. And when it's bad, the bad outcome is terrible.
Speaker: So like that I've worked with some guys like that were, I'm cool with going for fourth and three at the plus five. I am not going for fourth and one at my own 37. I don't care what that model says because if it goes bad, it's it's it's real bad as opposed to you it doesn't work at the plus five yard line, then you know we're getting 95 yards to defend. So it's an interesting world. And and you know I think for example, one way to maybe measure it is say like, okay, if a team has dry first and 10 at your own 38,
Speaker: how often they score what about if that if they get that drive after a failed fourth down how often they score like is it a higher number and i have yet to see anything that that perfectly proves that um you know the the league as a whole is just it's just really skyrocketing the number of fourth down attempts and it's going to continue um i think it's kind of reaching like a peak point where maybe it sort of plateaus here um but I think it will. Honestly, honestly yeah it's not good it because because there's more I would say such a high percentage of of the ones that analytics recommends going for it are are actually being gone for now as opposed to 10 years ago, maybe 20% of the recommendations that that it said go for it that teams would go for. so
Speaker: um and i and i totally respect people's views. And there there are some current NFL head coaches that have share the same viewpoint as what you shared there. And um I respect it. And at the end of the day, what I tell people is it's way more important to be a really good offense on a really good defense on first, second and third down. And then you won't even have to worry about these fourth down situations. They really comprise like a small part of the game when you have a ton of first down snaps, a ton of second, a ton of third. um You know, say you have...
Speaker: over a thousand snaps in an NFL season on offense, those fourth down decisions where you get a little bit more aggressive than in the past, that might be like 10 decisions on the whole year. you imagine 10 snaps where you're doing something different versus I want to be a better on those other thousand snaps in a perfect world because then, you know, Mike McDonald, for example, was actually one of the more conservative coaches.
Speaker: you know if you look at the macro fourth down stuff but they were so devastatingly dominant on defense and then their ah offense was like above average that it didn't really matter most of the time yeah i mean i agree i think it's hard it's hard to predict everything it's like they're sports you know what i mean know we all want analytics to be in in the game because we want to find the edge right what decision making is the best how do we win all that stuff and i know variable is is you know on the on the cutting edge of this stuff like he wants to be They have a good, they have good analytics people versus Belichick just had Ernie Adams sitting in a room being like, here's what they're going to do.
Speaker: You know what I mean? And, and, and and the Patriots Belichick weren't on the cutting edge of analytics for a long time. It was just some smart old football guys, but I think the whole, and again, like I'll let Brett jump in next, but the whole, like not taking the points thing, like people don't want to take the fucking points, dude.
Speaker: And and it it drives me insane sometimes. Like, again, you could be on your own. Let's say you're on your own. I'm sorry, their 30-yard line. And in a tie game, and, you know, like, do you want to go up? You want to take the lead?
Speaker: you want to kick a field goal? Or you really need to say the analytics tell us 64% of the time we're going to convert this fourth and two on their 30. Do you know what mean? Like, it just – it's crushing me. It's crushing me because it's every lesson you learned – ah playing football as a kid, i playing Madden, whatever it is it may be, right? It's like every old football adage you hear and we're all just like, fuck it. Like you should actually go for it now and and and screw the points. Let me give you an example here, okay? So i'm ah I'm gonna pause you there. Like, and I respect it is,
Speaker: it's the framing is not take the points. The framing is attempt to take the points. Like you, like if you, you can't be in the mental mindset as you're communicating this information during in the game and making the decision that it is a certainty that the field goal is going to go in and the the odds of the field goal going in are factored into all of the decisions. So like, say you're at the 30 yard line and that, that would be a 48, 48 yard field goal. Yeah. I think it's maybe, maybe it's like say 77%, you know, these, and, and, but,
Speaker: But that is factored in like when you're making your fourth down decision, it's factoring in a 23% chance that you're going miss and that they're going have the ball. Not at the, not only at the 38 yard or yeah, they'll have it at the, basically the 38 yard line. So these things are factored in from that standpoint of it. And I'll leave you with this point. I got to get going here guys, but, but I, I, I, this was great. Like I'll come on you know, like this is, this is my first time doing like a live thing, whatever it is. This cool. But, um,
Speaker: yeah what I'd say, and if especially if like crazy ones happen during the season, I'll just come on and like the talk about it, whatever. oh there's me During in the season, this shit will get wild. yeah so what it but so like Let me give an example. we In the Super Bowl, this is 100% true, one hundred percent truth so we're playing the Patriots 2018 Super Bowl,
Speaker: and We knew that they were not going to sneak the ball if we were jammed up in the a's and b in the A and b gaps. We're like, you know, Tom, he always checks in the sneaks, but we have to stop that. So we're like lined up in a way to make sure they don't do it.
Speaker: They end up running like a jet sweep to Brandon Cooks and we stop it. It's like fourth and one, fourth and two, whatever it was. They were at the eight-yard line, the plus eight-yard line. they They quote-unquote take the points, the Patriots, and he he misses ball.
Speaker: He misses 26 yarder, which is so unbelievable that that happened. Those things go in over 99% of the time. And like that, honest to God, may have been the reason why the Eagles won the Super Bowl. And because everything that went on from that moment on was different. And obviously I'm not going to be like an analytics person and say like, oh, so like,
Speaker: see, he was going to miss it every time. Like, no, like, but that it's, it just gives you a little bit of, of humility of like the take the points world is really attempt the point, attempt to take the points at whatever that percentage is. Even the attempting the extra points you're,
Speaker: you're it's a 95 proposition you know and i somebody missed we missed one in the in the super bowl the the the eagles i think the the patriots may have missed one as well i don't remember it was something silly there that happened in the super bowl in terms of like both teams missed a and a kick that would have gone in at least 95 of the time so But that's really kind of just like for reference like that's that's the math stuff But anyway, I appreciate you guys having me on and like, and know I'm gonna keep posting stuff and things and if you guys want me to look into certain things on Twitter whatever just let me know and I'll i'll you know put some cool stats up at at different points and you guys can like, you know Go crazy with that and kill Mike Rabel or do whatever you want to do with it
Speaker: All right, man. We appreciate you coming on. you Anytime you want to talk Pats, man, you're welcome to to come on here and and chat with us. so All right. Thank you. have a good one. See you later, Ryan.
Speaker: All right. Cool. We're going to keep the live stream kicking for a little bit. And yeah, let me run out of the stage here. Yeah, so ah yeah, good guy, yeah local guy. And he's he's really blown up on a blowing up on the socials, man, because he's trying to ease you know pivoting the media stuff, which is very different ballgame from being in you know in a locker room or in a front office or whatnot, time-wise. um Well, like can I pivot fully back to 35 minutes ago and finish the Greg Bedard story?
Speaker: yeah great pivot well you start that why you know don't know it's a live show you know what i mean i'm gonna leave it in there just it'll sound goofy on our actual reported recorded broadcast but you're gonna leave that on the live stream you're not gonna yeah well i don't think i can go back in time I'll use my ah my time device. um Yeah, so, okay. to finish Sorry, to finish the story, long story short, was listening to Bernard's podcast, heard him say something, the Patriots don't think Christian Gonzalez is physical enough. I was like, wow, okay. Like, that's not like a crazy thing for someone to say, but it felt like he was saying it as if this was information now. Do you know mean? Like the way he said it goes, the Patriots don't think it was current information. So I heard i was like, oh, geez. Like, I bet that's something people will be interested in it.
Speaker: Right? That's why that's all my only thought process. Bedard thinks I'm trying to, like, fucking gotcha moment him, which, by the way, if he listens to this or someone sends this to him, that's not the point.
Speaker: The point is not like, hey, let me do a gotcha on Bedard. It's not the point. He's the one who's supposed to be playing insider baseball here. Hey, here's the intel. I'm sharing with you. Here's how the Patriots feel. And he was saying it like it was a current thing.
Speaker: The Patriots also think he's not physical. So I said, all right, let me tweet this out. Not realizing Christian Gonzalez was going to fucking run with it. Then not realizing Bedard was going to have a 25-minute apology video.
Speaker: And in the video, he did walk it back, which, again, is is just crazy to me. Like, if you're going make a video and then saying, well, this is actually not new information, this was really just – This was really Intel I had back in week fucking four.
Speaker: Then, okay, well, why did you say it like that on your fucking podcast? i'm being I'm being serious. Like, why say here's how they feel? Like, that's a current thing. Like, hey, you just talked to them.
Speaker: Here's how they feel. Like, I texted a guy. No, that's not how they feel currently. They might think Christian Gonzalez played his fucking balls off in the postseason. That's how they might think that he's a great player. We want him. We're just working out this contract because we want him to be at 33 million. We want him at 31 and a half.
Speaker: I don't fucking know. I heard good things about the contract from somebody. That's all I heard. I heard like doing well. It's going to go well. ah Everyone's hearing different things. Mike Reese in his article is alluding to still being like a sticking point. So all I'm saying this, the whole thing in the end, Bernard saying we're horrible or the lower the low for taking things and aggregating or reporting news.
Speaker: That's what. Football news is. That's what social media is. We're reacting to stuff. We write articles on SavageBoston.com. We cover it on the live stream. We're covering on Twitter. We're trying to have fun covering the Patriots, covering Boston sports.
Speaker: That's the whole fucking point, okay? We're having fun doing it. That's it. So, I don't know. get You guys, give me your thoughts on that whole scenario with Christian Gonzalez because I thought it was it was ridiculously overblown.
Speaker: Well, I'll just add that on top of that, he also mentioned that Christian Gonzalez is viewed as being mentally soft soft and like sensitive towards this. know. I didn't get into that yet, but you you go for it, Brett. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's he's on NBC Sports Boston. He's talking about how you know he's also a bit sensitive about it, and he doesn't like the criticism and stuff. So this – like Bernard has been you know pretty pretty critical here.
Speaker: of Gonzalez and basically trying to say what he's hearing and his perspective of the Patriots view on Gonzalez and why the contract's not in place. And these are like legitimate knocks on a guy that was a standout in the Super Bowl, like excellent down the stretch, deservedly should be paid top dollars to be a cornerback.
Speaker: And I think it's going to happen. Like, I think it's going to happen yeah within the next month. But it's crazy for him to come out and like say these things, and then we share it, we talk about it, we we go through it, and he's like, well, what do you doing? What do you mean? what are you talking about? It's like, well, I don't know. I'm just repeating what you said based on information that you have.
Speaker: i And to me, i look I'm like, you're being soft about it. Like I don't understand the – concern with it all or like why it's not wouldn't be a hot topic item like if you so if you're saying it like where it's obviously drawing attention to was the situation.
Speaker: I disagree. i don't think that's the case. And this is the first time we're ever hearing it come out, which just seems really, really odd. let's i do ever But everyone's sensitive. This is the thing. like Everyone's sensitive. Gonzalez obviously has a problem with how Bedard's talking about him because he's been talking shit about him for like three years since he was drafted. like I don't think Bedard's ever said anything good about Gonzalez. He even said he played like shit in the Super Bowl, I think.
Speaker: He said recently, he's like, yeah, a couple of those balls should have been touchdowns. Like he just, he's not a fan of him. I don't think as a player, but that's fine. It's fine to have your opinion.
Speaker: That's the point. Like have your opinion, but stand by it. That's all all I'm saying. yeah If you're going have a take and say, i think Christian Gonzalez is soft. If that's your take, stand by your take.
Speaker: or Or say, here's how the Patriots think. And then when someone questions you on it, stand by your take. He wouldn't have had this big apology video if he actually thought, if the intel was actually current and real.
Speaker: He wouldn't have had a fucking apology video. He would have been like, nope this is how they think. Sorry to tell you. Sorry you're mad at me, Christian. Here's how they think. That's not how it went down. He walked it back to fucking eight months ago or whatever.
Speaker: so the The only time you heard criticism or critique of Gonzalez like this was when he was being drafted because he's quiet and he Tomlin inexplicably like didn't thought less of him because he fucking transferred from Colorado and didn't want to stick it out with his teammates or whatever. It's all this stupid macho bullshit.
Speaker: That's the stupid macho bullshit the NFL does sometimes. They get in their own way. where you're like, oh, maybe he's just a really good corner who just isn't, who doesn't talk the whole time. Like Stefan Gilmore was the same way, right? And he was an all pro, you know, future Hall of Fame type you know player.
Speaker: it's It's weird. It's almost like I feel like he's almost kind of being used by the team a little bit to parrot something, maybe in contract talks, but I don't think it's it. I just think he said something to be flashy and flamboyant and controversial, and then he just caved the second someone called him out on it. He does this sometimes. He says something. And then people go, wait, what? And they call him out on it. And he just fucking turtles and goes, well, I didn't say that. What are talking about? Come on, you guys are dumb. You guys are idiots. That's like me coming on and being like, hey, I heard ah ah heard Christian Gonzalez's contract is almost done.
Speaker: I'm like, i heard I heard it almost done, telling you right now, I got the intel. And then someone's like from the Patriot says, or then you hear from Reese, and he goes, not close. And then people start asking me, hey, how come you you said it was almost done? And i'm like, well, I heard it like seven months ago and all ah bla blah, blah, blah, like backpedaling.
Speaker: That's not the point. Like if you're going to say or report things, stand by what you're saying. And I would say this to Bedard's face, obviously. I don't know Bedard. I haven't met him. I've met a lot of people that know him and work for him or have worked for him.
Speaker: And they're all very nice people. I don't know Bedard. All I know is he gets very angry on the Internet. He's had to be blocked for like two years, which is what it is. But he gets really angry and sensitive on the Internet and then comes out and starts talking shit at people again.
Speaker: Like you that, that, that NBC Boston thing, dude, about calling him like really soft and sensitive the other night. Like again, he's, if you can come and be Mike Felger, if you want to be Mike Felger, that's fine. Like everyone's who wouldn't Felger is the king of Boston media, but this is, this is Felger territory.
Speaker: He gets on and shits on players and he does Felger doesn't give a fuck. If you don't like him, that's, what's good about Felger. I care. If you're a player and you're like, I hate this guy, I'd be like, oh, that sucks.
Speaker: And apparently Bedard really cares. He doesn't want the players to dislike him, but then wants to go online and talk about how soft they are. Like, you know, Christian Gonzalez saw the clip I posted today about him saying that.
Speaker: You know he saw it. So it is what it is. Gonzalez is going to have to ignore it and not be sensitive. And Bedard is going to have to not be sensitive. You know?
Speaker: Again, i just stepping back from the Bedard equation, I just look at it and say the Patriots have got to lock up Gonzo. Like this this can't be lingering going into the season. I definitely don't want him to be be a holdout.
Speaker: um We'll see. I mean, again, training camp starts up in 11 days. He was able to go through some of minicamp earlier, but like is he going to hold out? Or not. And if he holds out, like he's such a key piece to our overall makeup of obviously our defense, but our overall team.
Speaker: Like we just don't have the pieces to back up Gonzo not being there. It really will hurt us. And really, you know, anything that we're trying to accomplish here.
Speaker: I also look it and say the contracts are just going to continue to go up and up for the next few years on all of these different players. So sign them lock them up. It sets the table for a future.
Speaker: Why not try to lock in a you know top five cornerback in the league at a premium position at a young age? That's homegrown, obviously fits this fits the market, fits the scheme, like all in all a good player. Like it just to me makes no sense why we would kick the can or go down this without.
Speaker: making it happen. So i I've been beating this drum for months that they really need to get this thing locked up. I wanna see it done within the next month. Do not wanna see this dragged out. Cause I think this is just gonna become more and more of a story, become more of a you know cloud over the room about what's happening. And i get it, Rabel has done a great job of fixing the culture.
Speaker: You don't wanna be dealing with a ah major contract situation like this. I think Barth has repeated this line and it's it's so true. It's like you can't beat the drum of being a draft and develop team and then just simply not play pay the players that you drafted Vela, particularly when they're blue chip talents like Gonzalez. They're going to sign him. I don't know when it's going to be. It'll probably but probably be at some point during camp. like He'll be fine. I'm not particularly worried about it. like They will sign him.
Speaker: He's going to get a deal in camp. Yeah, i agree. I think he'll get signed. Uh, you know, but who knows where they're at? This is the problem, you know, even Gonzo, like his agents are the ones negotiating right now. And, and we don't know, again, we don't know where it's at.
Speaker: It seems like you got two sides trying to spread information. And one side is is saying it's not close and he's not physical and he's too soft and sensitive. And the other side is saying we need a top top market cornerback ah salary. So I think ultimately he gets paid and he gets, he gets, he gets a bag, man. He's going to make bank.
Speaker: um Shifting off it just because they're to get fired up there. What did you guys think about just the top 10 list with the, what do you call it? ah You know, the top 10 list of quarterbacks by executive scouts and had may at eight the season and people were, I guess we're upset. And the homes was, you know, fell down the list to i think it was like six or something like that, whatever it was. But what'd you guys think about the list was may the fair, fair placement for may or, or what?
Speaker: I mean, no, but I don't see how you could conceivably look at what happened last year um and put him anywhere outside of the top five. um I mean, i don't see how you could put Barrow ahead of him, to be honest with you, um or Mahomes or Jackson. I don't think if you're specifically looking at last year, then.
Speaker: I don't see how you could put them ahead of him. Allen, sure. You know, you could argue it one or the other, but I'm not going to, you know, not going to crazy over something like that. also generally just don't give a fuck about top 10 lists and all that bullshit. I think most of the league doesn't watch the entire league. So, like, you know what I mean? Like, they don't have time. You can't watch every player from every team. So,
Speaker: and And a lot of times they do, like they may have only watched the playoffs where he slowed down a little bit and things like that. And it's like, I guess I could see how you'd be, you know, that would skew your view of him a little bit. Whereas those of us who watch, you know, every play multiple times type of thing have a better appreciation for his talents and abilities.
Speaker: Well, yeah, I mean, I think that's why you see a guy like Patrick Mahomes still get the level of respect he gets because of, like, past moments and big moments. But if you really – we've been talking about it for a while now. If you look at the last few years, he's very pedestrian, very pedestrian numbers, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I also, like – I'm kind of getting tired of the Joe Burrow just always being in the top five because it's Joe Burrow.
Speaker: i mean, the guy – ah Health is a major factor when you look at these ratings and like who you want to build your roster on and availability is so key. So like you look at a guy like Josh Allen, who, yeah, he plays a physical game, but he's always fucking there.
Speaker: But you compare that to Lamar Jackson to Joe Burrow, like they're banged up. like Lamar Jackson was a shell of himself because he was dealing with injuries all year long. And I think he could be a potential guy that could struggle with some injuries because he's a little bit more of a slighter figure.
Speaker: Joe Burrow is one of those guys like he got absolutely savaged. In the first few years, which is, again, you know, a good point to say, invest in the offensive line to make sure you're taking care of your number one asset. They didn't do that in Cincinnati and they potentially have ruined this guy's career. You just look at it and say, we just always seem to put him in the top five. But in reality, the guy has barely been able to stay healthy through a regular season.
Speaker: to be able to be there at the end to say, well, does it even really matter? Yeah, he's great at the start of the season or he's great when he's healthy, but he's got to be healthy. And I just – he's a guy that I look at and say, eventually I think people are going to wear off on him. And I don't understand why he's carrying so much.
Speaker: Like I can understand the Patrick Mahomes argument because he had so many big moments and so many big games. Burrow has some big moments, but it's it's been a long time and he hasn't done it consistently enough that you would give him that same level of respect that Mahomes gets. So he's kind of an enigma to me.
Speaker: I don't I think you've got to like I've been beating this drum for a while now and you got to Mahomes needs to drop out of some of these top, top two, top threes in these lists. and And I think people are putting them there just based on what he did, not what he's done recently. And again, statistically, he's just been declining for like three years.
Speaker: Now, he could have a massive year this year and and come back and be a a huge guy again and put up all the numbers. But like i yeah i mean like to have a full prime Holmes year where he wasn't even close to making the playoffs last year,
Speaker: And like mostly he's had an elite defense for a couple of years before that, where the offense's points per game has declined, like his statistics declined. He just hasn't. I get it. They lost talent around him.
Speaker: That's this how it goes. But like it just he hasn't been the same guy as he was early in his career. He throws it shorter and shorter and shorter yards per attempt. you know, is, is a dot less like ages is efficiency less. And he still makes a bunch of big plays and runs the ball and runs around. So everyone, you know, again, thinks he's still the same guy, but he, he hasn't been.
Speaker: And it's not just being a bitter at this point. i don't care. Like he could be top the league guy. That's fine. I just, he hasn't been he's he last year, his pass rating was below average. it was below league average.
Speaker: So, I mean, at some point, when does the, public zeitgeist change on homes and like where he should be in these rankings. You know what i mean? Yeah. It's just to that point, you can kind of say that about a bunch of people. I mean, it's just, yeah, what it is.
Speaker: i mean, I don't know. Change, you know, like, I mean, the thing is you look at a guy like Brady, i mean, he went, he never really had top elite receivers or weapons around him. And when he did like, look at the numbers that go with it. So I just, I just look at it say, yeah, i agree. i don't think his weapons are getting any better. We'll see what happens with Rasheed Rice. And like, is he going to even be on the field? I think worthy is going to be a pretty good player for them coming back, obviously from the injury, but like,
Speaker: I don't know. They don't look like a huge dynamic offense and they're, they're going more towards the run. They just pick up Walker. They're continuing invest in the offensive line. Like they're going to run the ball more and be much more conservative because they can't do what they used to do for a playing style.
Speaker: So I just don't see it repeating itself. And yeah, I don't see my homes being that guy. That's, He hasn't been the guy that's just basically said, just put the team on my back and I'm going to do it recently.
Speaker: I mean, I get it. Like they've had some late runs, but he's been very pedestrian. Yeah, it certainly hasn't been the same guy. But I feel like we should we should wrap it up just because we're coming coming down to 55 minutes, which is getting there.
Speaker: It's getting there. So we have one more week. Next week's on the 21st is I think when – think that's when rookies report on the 21st. And then after that, be, uh, podcasting will be during training camp time, which will be, we'll be rocking, man. I'm planning on going down to the first training camp practice on the 25th, which would be awesome. And, uh, hoping to make it down there a bunch this year. I still think they're going to have a ton of, uh, ton of restrictions, uh, in place for no video, no camera. I'm sure we'll all still be there, but
Speaker: people going to be fired up. And yeah, we're going a joint pod on August 20th. Thanks, Joe, for reminding me. um We're going to have a bunch of different podcasts. It's going to be following the Patriots Eagles joint practice down at Gillette.
Speaker: I don't know if we're 100% locked into the space yet, but we're planning on doing a live joint joint podcast, trying to get the be potentially sponsored by fanatics and maybe have a giveaway. Um, so that'd be pretty cool, but obviously we'll be sharing and, um, talking to people about that, you know, when, when we get there. So, uh, but yeah, thanks for, uh, thanks for coming on and, and tuning in everybody and, a good interview with, uh, you know, with Ryan there and and that was a lot of fun. So, uh, we will catch you guys next time and, and we're getting close. We're getting close. So we'll see you later. Peace.
Speaker: Peace. Yeah.
