Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
Slowly but surely
166 Plays1 month ago
This conversation delves into the current state of the VLE and LMS market, focusing on financial pressures faced by universities, the impact of government funding, and the dynamics of online learning implementations. The discussion also highlights the role of AI in shaping market changes and the overall trends observed in the education technology landscape.
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction to VLE LMS Market Discussion
00:00:09
Speaker
Hello and welcome back to Online Education Across the Atlantic. Looking forward to yet another discussion with Neil and with Morgan. This week, since both of us, or all three of us, I guess, are two different reports,
00:00:23
Speaker
um wrote articles or post or reports about the VLE LMS market. and short of both of us Both sides took the approach of here's sort of the state of the market that we've seen over the past year. So we thought it's a great chance to dive into some of the findings we had there and just discuss what we're seeing in the market moving
Financial Challenges in UK Universities
00:00:46
Speaker
forward. um So that's what we're we're going to be talking about. But before we get into that topic, ah We're loaded over here, Neil, with news, so i're we're gonna start with you. Any yeah any big news that's interesting you on your side of the pond? Well, I think one of the big things is actually quite close to home for me because and Cardiff University was one of the big announcers of cuts, and I think although there's been lots of cuts mentioned and closures of departments and all that kind of stuff,
00:01:18
Speaker
across the yeah UK. The Cardiff story seems to have kind of got a lot more traction um then than others and that's part partly because it's a Russell Group University but um that's been kind of rumbling across the news here. and But he I guess my reflections on it are the fact that I still don't feel like we're able to have a proper nuanced discussion around these things. so you have I can slightly um caricature this a little bit, but you have on one hand you have the university saying it's a government funding problem, or university employees saying it's a government funding problem.
00:02:00
Speaker
and You kind of have kickbacks from um from the public around closure of things like nursing and other departments without necessarily knowing the enrollment trends for those things and the fact that there are plenty of other options to go and study those things. Now obviously the reality of the kind of the staff facing but potentially job losses and all that kind of thing and students you know, is challenging.
Comparing Financial Issues: UK vs US Universities
00:02:25
Speaker
is It's just interesting the way it kind of played out in the news because i I was thinking of Morgan because I was thinking about the way in which certain subjects are being closed down. And when you know the landscape, then there's a certain degree of logic to that because you know that the areas that they're proposing aren't
00:02:44
Speaker
ones that are growing in terms of the number of students that are declining. So um yeah, that story's kind of just played out across different news networks here. um And Morgan, you had written about that as well. Are you lightly? No, i think maybe that was just back channel discussion about Cardiff story, right?
00:03:02
Speaker
Yeah, i I was having a ah conversation with a friend of mine who pointed out like he was contrasting the cuts at Cardiff with the cuts at Durham. And, you know, Cardiff was cutting, looking at programmes and cutting things here and cutting things there. Whereas Durham had apparently come out and said, we're only going to cut the service units, not the academic core. And I had a, I questioned that approach and and so did my friend, Tony.
00:03:30
Speaker
um Yeah, the question for me also is, who's discussing the role that universities have had to play in ah the place that they find themselves? Because I think if we're going to reflect on this period and hopefully have a better period going forward, you kind of need to consider all of these factors. And so so much of it seems to be focused on government policy and government funding, which obviously is
Brown University's Budget Deficit Strategies
00:03:54
Speaker
a big part of it. But that's one big frustration for me, like, can we have a a really proper grown up discussion where we look at all the different factors and reasons behind why universities are in a place that they're in at the moment so that, you know, we can actually put things on a better footing rather than just being like government needs to fund the sector more. Well, I would add in with Brown University on our side, ah they're going through, they have a structural deficit of $46 million dollars this year, could grow up to $90 million next next year if they don't do something about it.
00:04:29
Speaker
um But what's interesting to me, two things, is they're private, so it's much less government involvement in their funding because they don't have direct state subsidies. And they're an elite university, they have a seven billion dollar endowment, so it's not really that. And if you look at a lot of the reason they are having the deficit, it's because they have consciously chosen to act more like a research university. So they have deliberately change their cost base. But they've done it in such a point that they now have a massive deficit and they're doing some very painful cuts. The other reason it's fascinating, and I wrote about it, is they're looking for online master's programs to be one of their primary near-term saviors. I don't know if you think that's fair for me to say near-term, maybe I'm putting words in their mouth.
00:05:22
Speaker
But they're looking at online as and they explicitly said, we're going to expand online master's programs in order to help us address the budget deficit. And you know we're getting into the whole investment versus actually making cash back from those things. But I just add that into the mix because it is financial pressure. But in their case, it's not very tied to government policy at all. So that makes it interesting.
00:05:51
Speaker
add to the mix as well. yeah um That's interesting that they're looking to online masters. I think there's probably some kind of analogy around the host being hosted bolted on that one. That feels very familiar to be honest. yeah They're parting like it's 2015.
00:06:12
Speaker
and Yeah, totally.
Impact of US Government Policies on Universities
00:06:13
Speaker
So what what's been what ah but what's the main headlines over there if you're able to distill them down into something? ah well and Well, let me just finish off the financial pressure and then i let Morgan loose a little bit. But I mean, on the financial pressure, I mean, that is a big thing. There's an ongoing story, like California State University.
00:06:36
Speaker
they're cutting $380 million across the system. But that hype, that and Brown, we're just seeing those stories that are still quite pervasive And I'll use this as a segue. And it's getting worse because a lot of the political stuff that's happening with the new Trump administration is putting even more financial pressure and uncertainty on universities. Have you noticed it? Unlike last time, Morgan, where you said there was nothing happening, have you heard anything in the news on the US side? Yeah, yeah. And you know, i I live with somebody who supports research at at a research university. So it's it's very, we but had a very warm weekend.
00:07:16
Speaker
Well, describe that. I know that we said that we weren't putting that in the newsletter, but for now it makes a lot of sense. Yeah, yeah. You know, so there was something came down on Friday afternoon that announced that the National Institute of Health, which is the primary funder of health-related and medical research, it's a federal funding, they're going to cap their indirect rate at 15%. The indirect rate is the amount that the university takes for indirect infrastructure costs.
00:07:46
Speaker
Um, uh, and they're negotiated by the university. We know that Johns Hopkins has a very, very high indirect rate. I know Yale's this morning, I just read was 69. I've heard 60. I had not heard numbers that high, but yeah. And I may be off there. I haven't seen that number before, but I, I, I'd sort of heard, um, that, and you know, it's to fund the infrastructure, but it also sort of supports the larger ecosystem, you know, of, um,
00:08:13
Speaker
oh of of research. So and not only are they capping the indirect rate this year, but they're doing it retroactively. So grants that are already out there um will have to be redone. You know, I think Illinois when I was there was 58. So instead of getting 58% they'd have to Um, you know, go back and do that, which means sort of massive things, things like, you know, lab space, data infrastructure, because there's a federal mandate that you make your data available freely. Um, library support, uh, you know, uh, all the, um, compliance kinds of things. So.
00:08:56
Speaker
You know, for some universities, I shared a ah post on Blue Sky, I was looking at individual institutions there, but you know, it's many hundreds of millions for many institutions that they suddenly don't get. um And know there's likely to be lawsuits and things like that, but it's a huge hit for research universities.
00:09:14
Speaker
So to tie that into Brown, Brown's a research university, small. Yeah. So when they're saying they have a $46 to $90 million dollars deficit, that was before Friday. Just from reading, ah you know more of the inside of this right now, but I mean like when you say 30 to a high number for indirect costs, but only not the and NIH said only nine out of 36 billion yeah was indirect cost, which that's 25% roughly. So is that not the average? or is it I find that hard to believe because literally I i i have over my time had over a million dollars worth of federal research funding and and you know I had to work with that structure and the data I've seen. it's it's yeah For most use you research universities over 50, especially medical schools, so
00:10:01
Speaker
I would question where that number comes from because your indirect rate really is high. so yeah But however it goes, yeah that's still leading to very even higher budget pressure on US research universities yeah ah than we were talking
NIH Funding Changes and Research Impact
00:10:18
Speaker
before. So this glum story, set of stories we're starting out with is getting even worse over here.
00:10:24
Speaker
and am i Am I right in assuming that the there the kind of meat on the bones is to still to come for the education department? It feels like from a from afar, when when I was serving, kind of dope the the lens ah the the focus of Doge is kind of going across departments and it's about it the education department. so I think must being Elon Musk said it this morning that the education department doesn't exist.
00:10:48
Speaker
So the two days ago. yeah yeah okay ah Yeah, the focus is clearly, depending on your point of view, Eye of Sauron or the next opportunity for efficiency, interpret however you want, is definitely turning to the Department of Education. So we will be hearing more. um But i would I mean, there's also the what's going to stick around. you You look at the tariffs, the Canadian and the Mexican tariffs. And I think that one thing we have to be very careful about is don't overreact to the little cat laser light that's being, you know.
00:11:24
Speaker
thrown out there as well. So when I hear things, and I know this is not my expertise at all, but when I hear retroactive, that gets to the point of that part's going to get thrown out no matter what. And they probably know that ahead of time. Yeah. So there's going to be a lot of chaos. It's not just financial pressure, but it's chaos. It's chaos. It's chaos. Yeah. Yeah. So, and you know, I think obviously I'm an ITIC person. So my interest, what impact is this going to have? You know, I just think it's going to put a lot of ah a big damper on a lot of ed tech spending and a lot of pressure on ways to save money and and bring that that sweet master's revenue that that is going to flow in this year of 2025. It's going to intensify these trends we're talking about. ah
00:12:13
Speaker
you know so including the lamentable in terms of what I described at Brown University, looking for cash cows or easy solutions. You're going to see more of that as one way to interpret it. One thing on Brown I do want to get into, I had one of our long-term readers who's been prolific in private conversations behind the scenes. ah We were having a conversation after my post that referenced Brown University.
00:12:39
Speaker
And he was pointing out that, you know, back in the day, 10-15 years ago, Brown really did invest a lot in edtech. Because I had criticized, here's a university that doesn't have a history of investing in online. Therefore, why do you think you can just suddenly do it and then succeed and make money from it?
00:12:58
Speaker
His point was, like, if you look back 15 years, it was a university who's putting money into edtech. Now, a lot of this was edX videos, but they were putting money in this space and cared about it. But it appears like there was a lot of activity back then.
00:13:14
Speaker
But then as you get into the mid 2010s and the late 2010s, they seem to have pulled back from it. But I guess I mentioned this from the fact of they're almost making two mistakes. One is thinking that edX video investments were going to lead to sweet revenue or some undefined benefits. And now it's online master's programs, but what you need is sustained investment and development of capabilities. so Realize I'm beating up on Brown a lot, but I just wanted to share those reader comments.
00:13:46
Speaker
Yeah, and I commented on this in relations of the yeah UK recently in terms of that gap between, and maybe this is not exactly what you're talking about, but that gap between investing in that kind of MOOC period, but not not pushing on. And actually now you suddenly get to a stage when you you could have pushed on from that and actually then gone into the online master space, but you didn't, and you pulled back and now you're trying to do it. And it's, yeah, it's kind of. Now you described it perfectly. um Morgan, I don't know if you've heard different, but you described it perfectly.
00:14:16
Speaker
And part of I am acknowledging that I overstated saying Brown doesn't have a history of investing. You're right. They did have a history of investing. They didn't carry it through and they didn't develop it into something. And now they're trying to come back. And we have plenty of examples like that here, so they're not alone at all. Yeah. i just Just before we get up got on just quickly, i I stumbled on an amazing report actually out of the Minnesota State System, which was looking at online costs.
Market Trends in VLE LMS
00:14:44
Speaker
um in 2019, and a majority of Minnesota state institutions were were making a loss on online at that point. um And they broke it down. So, you know, I think there's a lot to be um to be explored there. Well, unfortunately, I think our tendency, we can make this its own episode because I have a lot of follow-up thoughts. But let's ah let's get back to our main topic because everybody loves an alamaster of VLE.
00:15:12
Speaker
That's what people love, and they're the sexiest thing out there. Neil, you put out your annual post that was essentially the state of the BLE market in the UK. Morgan and I put out our annual state of the LMS ah market analysis. Well, we did two things. We put out a market analysis report for our enterprise subscribers, and that's global. We looked at LMS trends and market share across the globe.
00:15:37
Speaker
but We will also put out our public posts that focus on the US and Canada. And so we have both of those out there. So it's just timely that we're you know putting out similar activities at the same time. So let me that's our main topic. It's sexy, it's exciting, and that's the best description I have of Neil, our moderator for this section.
00:15:57
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, i I think it was actually uncanny that we were so coordinated because we didn't plan on, we didn't discuss this in advance, did we? So, you know, I think it was a very, ah very happy coincidence. We've been coming in tune with each other now. were like Yes, that's it. That's it. Well, my intention was we were going to get ours out in early January, but there are various things happening where that didn't happen. so we We naturally fell in tune. Well, we're equally in tune because that was my intention as well. So there you go. There we go. Um, yeah, I mean, like I, it was interesting. It's always interesting reflecting back on the year. Cause he kind of, you have that kind of bird's eye for you. And I think for me, probably.
00:16:41
Speaker
I mean there's there's lots to discuss and lots to pull out even though we're joking about the and the excitement attached to the market. I think probably the straight most striking thing for me and just looking at the UK was probably the fact that there wasn't much movement. I know that this is ultimately a market that moves slowly anyway but I think that was probably one of the big headline things for me, but I just wondered what, for you guys, I mean, you felt I think you guys have been doing it for much longer than I have, probably doing it for three years, you guys have been doing it for probably 10. Like, what were the things this year that were headlines for you, for them in in terms of the state of the market, maybe overall, and like particular regions? Because you covered, you know, much more regions than I did, of course, but what were the what were the top things?
00:17:31
Speaker
I think sort of the slowness of of change. Also, I think an interesting contrast between say A and Z um and the US versus most other markets, because most of the other markets were, you know, there was Moodle, there was a small, um
Financial Pressures and LMS Adoption Strategies
00:17:46
Speaker
at the bottom, of a small bit of of of ah ah other products, but you know, those two markets were sort of different. You're much more dynamic and changing, but that was sort of a striking thing for me as well.
00:18:00
Speaker
Before Phil says his bit, and did did did you get a sense of what the reasons were behind the dynamism in that part of the market? I don't. and you know That is a that is a a great question. um To some extent, it depends on what's changing. It's it's whether Instructure and D2L have been able to make more inroads and and the decline of Blackboard. and yeah they've they've they've they've struggled in some other markets and Blackboard has they been much more stable and than in and in those two markets. So I think it's sort of basically down to that. No, I would agree with that. I would just to clarify, the damn squid graphic has been around now for 16 years. So um if you actually trace back and what's funny about that, I might have mentioned this before. The whole reason I came up with the squid graphic is because I was doing a lot of campus presentations and workshops.
00:18:56
Speaker
And I got to the point like, why am I getting paid to do a one hour explanation of the same stuff? Go look at this and then I'll talk to you about additional things. But the thing just lives on. So the squid graphics now been 16 years. um But on the topic, you're talking about the slowness of the market. It's global. And I think that the biggest thing I would characterize it is the market has slowed down globally in terms of LMS changes.
00:19:22
Speaker
A lot of that's probably due to our news conversation. It's such difficult finances. It makes a lot of stress on schools to invest in doing evaluations. If you switch LMSs or VLAs, you have to keep your old one while you start your new one.
00:19:39
Speaker
So I think that's part of it. um There is also the fact that there haven't been new entrants. So we've known who the big four, Moodle, Anthology Blackboard, D2L, Brightspace, and Structure Canvas, we've had the same top four. I think I looked at it for like 11, 12 years. So it's not like there's new entrants. options out there. So I definitely think it slowed down. What makes the U.S. look more dynamic right now is that the State University of New York and the City University of New York, both of those statewide systems, hundreds of thousands of students, they both went from Anthology to D2L Brightspace, but a lot of the implementations came out in 2024.
00:20:28
Speaker
That led to, um if you look at the most, just at the numbers, the biggest striking thing was D2L and Anthology were essentially neck and neck and market share in North America. And now there's an eight point gap.
00:20:43
Speaker
And so much of that is simply timing of implementations. um And it doesn't imply that the market is actually fodder here. It's just some of this is residual stuff that's happening. um But at the same time, and I know we've talked about it, but it's still worth noting, Anthology winning Centennial College in Canada away from D2L Brightspace, that's bigger story than just the numbers, partially because that really was the blackboard part of Anthology, their biggest win.
00:21:14
Speaker
particularly on a competitive takeaway since probably the University of Phoenix a good seven, eight years ago. So, OK, so there's some more dynamism in North America market, but it's still the number of switches has definitely come down here as well. Australia, I'm less sure. I mean, it's a smaller market.
00:21:37
Speaker
I don't know that I have a full handle on why that is and if there's a timing issue with them as well. Yes, yeah it's interesting. I mean, I definitely found, um to your point, Phil, around like just the general economic pressures that universities face, I definitely found examples of that. um I remember reading something from a university over here. basically is a sort of a formal explanation of why they're renewing their contract and not going to the open market. And it read very similar to those documents I'd seen during the pandemic, where maybe a renewal was up around the pandemic time and there's lots of justification. of like like
00:22:16
Speaker
right now there's too much going on and this would involve too much cost and too much hassle to change and um so I've definitely seen examples of that. out One of the things I was interested in in and your report that you kind of mentioned was around um one of the factors for change and one of the factors in terms of the market dynamic being growth in online learning that definitely resonated a little bit with my context but in a slightly different way um because one of the things I keep meaning to get around to to delving into more deeply when i when I do this kind of thing is
Role of Competency-Based Education in LMS Decisions
00:22:52
Speaker
is this kind of sub-market of online only implementations and often they're because an OPM wants to use a particular VLE that the institution as a whole is using. But I think that's an interesting driver of implementations, particularly implementations that involve a different system than the kind of core system for the the main body of the university. but
00:23:19
Speaker
I just wondered if you saw that playing out in the US around that place. Played out past tense. That's what happened 10 years ago, right? like ah I think the standard now in the US is know the desire for students to have consistency and also for staff to be able to manage things consistently. In the US, s it's mostly moved to even with the growth of online, it's we need one LMS across the campus. That's my interpretation. Yeah, and at the Moodle conference last year, there was a session by Illinois about how they're making Moodle work within Canvas, you know, which I think points to that pressure, you know, because the one college is doggedly held on to Moodle. Some reasons that I would question, but like the fact that they're now going to make it available within Canvas points to that sort of, you you need that sort of one one sort of ah approach as as you grow online. And and you know,
00:24:16
Speaker
Obviously- Hold on, onto you're you're leaving out some of your attitude that I saw on the Slack channel when you heard that presentation. The podcast is the time to let that go. The floor is yours, Morgan. I think it's a mistake or it's misguided. It's both of those things. Because of the student.
00:24:36
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, and you know, I think you've got a question about why you're doing it, and the origins of that decision, I know from how I'd been there are but questionable. So, you know, but but but I had a particular position in that fight, so I acknowledge that. um Yeah, but so Neil, if you're seeing that now, that's it's not an emerging trend over here. that's more of We saw a lot more of that a while ago. ah I sometimes wonder if it's me seeking to look for something in the mix of a market that's not moving so fast, but I think there's a bit of that. I mean, other bits that I see as well is also the kind of implementation of things like Canvas catalog.
00:25:16
Speaker
And that's that's driven by you know something that maybe you referenced earlier in relation to Brown. Does that sense because of the financial pressures that universities face? They're looking oh all over the place. So you might might have been might have universities who are looking more for online masters and therefore maybe going down an OPM route and they might have to kill a new implementation because of that. But there are also a few examples of universities looking at you know what I call sub-degree, the short courses, micro-credentials. And they're looking for they're looking for the products that, you know, like the D2L and Instructure kind of offer to deal with that kind of non-matriculated student element. Like if you're not seeing the kind of the first trend that I was talking about, are you seeing anything in terms of micro-credential short courses and that influencing implementation of of these kind of things and the the but the mark influence on the market? but ah
00:26:12
Speaker
I don't see it so much in the VLE or LMS space. I see it in that own little, you know, the Canvas catalogs and the, I always forget the name of the, the, the, the D2L product. Course merchants. Yeah. Course. Yeah. I'm going to write it on something large in my, but, and, you know, things like that, um, the, the, the dream product, uh,
00:26:34
Speaker
um and things but not so much in the LMS because usually they can connect it up and it's a question of permissions and how they're doing that identity thing um as we discovered. But but um I must say I certainly in Europe got a very strong sense that where you were on the online learning continuum determined your approach to your LMS and VLE. If you had an online learning thing already going or as part of your strategy, you wanted a commercial system or a heavily supported Moodle instance. Otherwise it's like, yeah's it's a nice additional add-on. Yeah. So you saw kind of a move into online learning has been the driver for actually implementing. Whereas like, yeah, I think it's kind of slightly different here, but yeah.
00:27:21
Speaker
Well, the thing it's still an open space. Now, I have to be careful here because I've been saying or thinking that the competency and skills nature of the change of education, I i consider it that a mega trend in terms of it's not going backwards. I think society has to go that direction and reduce their reliance on credits and time-defined programs.
00:27:46
Speaker
But I have to admit, my goodness, it's gotten so much slower in changing the market than I thought. And if you look at the LMS market, it's just not driving decision making, for the most part, in the way that if you'd asked me 10 years ago, I would have predicted.
00:28:02
Speaker
I have a similar view on non-credit stuff. It's not, Morgan's right, it's not the primary issue for dealing with micro-credentials. That's much more registrations, taking payments, course catalog, discoverability. um I think the LMSVLE vendors are in a position to use that to their advantage, and they're under-investing in it.
00:28:27
Speaker
And I look at those two products see you mentioned, Course Merchining and Catalog, and it's like good concept. You got to put a lot more behind it. even But then you have to say, is it going to be profitable or when?
00:28:42
Speaker
will it be profitable to put more money into solving that problem? So it's I think it's a direction to keep traveling ah to keep watching, but i it's moving slow.
AI's Influence on LMS Market Changes
00:28:52
Speaker
I have to admit that. And I think on that profitability question, there's also the question of the profitability of universities going down that route in and of themselves in terms of the market.
00:29:02
Speaker
But you mentioned something and around, you know, the skills base and competency base, not necessarily, um you know, impacting or changing things massively. I'm interested in kind of the AI angle because I think obviously that has been a big element of um the change. And, you know, I think we've all talked about the fact that there's growing differentiation between the products based on how the companies have have approached AI.
00:29:32
Speaker
But I'm just wondering whether you know that the AI product developments, whether you see them as actually changing the the market and being um compelling enough to to warrant an institution to change. It's great to see the differentiation, I guess, in a market that sometimes can be seen as a bit as a bit vanilla. But it it do you see any of those product developments or or any of those kind of strategic moves?
00:30:03
Speaker
actually compelling of being a big cause of market change. and I think that ah the centennial college Centennial College that we mentioned, and I think we talked about this last summer, AI and Anthology's approach to it was absolutely a driver of them choosing Anthology. I talked to them. They said so.
00:30:27
Speaker
Um, and that's newsworthy as we said, but really at this stage, that's the exception that proves a rule. Um, so certainly not yet is my answer to that question. Interesting. And are we still generally of the mind that Moodle is the one that's slightly lacking behind her in terms of AI or is that a unfair characterization? I'm going to let Morgan answer that so she can get beat up again.
00:30:56
Speaker
Yeah, they've they've taken that approach and they're making it available as ah as a subsystem, but you know I think they're trying to fix so many things and and and and shift so many things in a constrained environment while doing that balancing act.
00:31:10
Speaker
Um, I think, I think they're, they are still lagging a little bit and I'm not seeing the vision there. That being said, I realized as I was speaking that I'm wearing a Moodle, a Moodle connected, uh, t-shirt. I'm wearing a t-shirt that comes from Decathlon, the, ah the large sporting goods store that's owned by their major investor. So I, I dressed for the event. Um, but.
00:31:35
Speaker
I think they're a strong, they're strongly holding on to the fourth position right now with their approach in the AI. So even though, I mean, as we're saying, it's not moving the market yet, just like non-credit. So they're sort of an argument saying, ah it's not necessarily a bad strategy. I've written that in structure, Canvas is not taking a strong AI approach despite their con-bigo, multiple announcements.
00:32:02
Speaker
And I've pointed out a lot of what they're doing is based on what others could do, which is sort of similar to Moodle's subsystem approach. And again, i you know, there's a pretty strong argument saying that's ah that's not necessarily a bad approach. I'll add one thing, and I'm very, something to watch, and it wasn't in any of our reports. Six, which is essentially the group that um replaced or morphed from Uninet into this group,
00:32:31
Speaker
and it essentially um is doing countrywide evaluations for Norway, and they just announced their selection last week as well that there that they're going with Canvas. Now, they've already been going with Canvas. They did it back in 2016.
00:32:47
Speaker
but it was pretty eventful that they've done a full evaluation, and they decided to make Canvas they their selection across the country of Norway, which is going to further solidify Canvas' strength there. I'm really hoping that they will release their evaluation rationale and reasons, and we could look at that For these questions, did was AI really part of that decision? The non-credit stuff, was that part of the decision? I'd be really curious to see um if some of the questions were asking if they're going to be able to answer from their
Opportunities for New LMS Entrants in Developing Markets
00:33:26
Speaker
perspective. I don't have those answers yet, but just be aware I'm trying to figure it out. Yeah, because that's the interesting element. I think just to get a sense of kind of what's missing from what AI could offer that universities really
00:33:38
Speaker
ah really one and it's really kind of useful to them because I think there's been a decent amount of focus on kind of teacher focused tools that I think we both kind of picked up on in the different reports but I often find that sometimes hard to square between um with the kind of some of the cynicism around them academics and university around AI and I just can't imagine some some groups being remotely interested in those kind of areas but and
00:34:10
Speaker
i think I think it was I think we both had very similar and you had kind of the meta trend and I had kind of trend for UK in terms of the market share for the for the different companies and the way they're progressing and it's still very much canvas and bright space are.
00:34:26
Speaker
the kind of leaders in terms of winning new implementation, Blackboard and Moodle losing share. But I just wondered, you know, whether you see that changing for the for the year ahead. I mean, I think think this year, I was i definitely felt i was I was more positive towards Blackboard's chances because of some of the changes that they've made. um It still feels like it's, you know, Brightspace and D2L and Instructure are kind of in the in the lead, so to speak.
00:34:56
Speaker
But I just wondered if you saw any signs of anything changing amongst those four and a reversal in success or fortune for for any of those companies. No, I i i i don't. you know um I mean, there there are exceptions and you know we've mentioned Centennial and on the Moodle front, they did win a couple of years ago, ah the University of South Africa, which is giant, 450,000 students and they've got a ah great installation there. But you know I think um
00:35:27
Speaker
Higher ed is such a bandwagon driven industry or sector. you know You do what your buddy down the street is doing, what your peer institutions are doing, and it's really hard for people to break that mold to say, no, I'm going to go with something else. So i I think there's a sort of momentum there as well as just um, you know, even apart from any features or, or, or, or things. And, you know, anthology has some other pressures in terms of, you know, cost. We, ah we, ah we wrote about that. So I think, um, yeah I don't see that shifting a lot. Yeah, I don't either. Yeah. Short answer is no. Um,
00:36:07
Speaker
It's still worth watching, in particular that last thing that Morgan mentioned, the anthology dealing with their debt and restructuring the ownership and debt holdings of the company, something to watch by this summer. So I think the summer will have news, but to your specific question, do I see any trends that will change that story in 2025? My answer is no, I don't see that.
00:36:31
Speaker
Yeah, and i I have to concur with that as well. I think i think the the most the most likely scenario in which Blackboard would win a new implementation here is probably from ah from a universities with Moodle, but there's because of the factors that we talked about earlier, I think there's even more to actually think about changing VLE. And it feels to me in the UK context, especially, there's less of that rhythm of contract renewals that would drive an institution using say a Moodle to review it more regularly. So I think
00:37:09
Speaker
that That kind of also works against them a little bit in the UK market in spite of, you know, I think we've all pointed out kind of changes that they've made and seem to be on a kind of better footing with certain things. But the international, you know, particularly the developing world things outside of UK, Northern Europe, um Australia, New Zealand, in North America, outside of there.
00:37:34
Speaker
There's still an enormous opportunity for movement there toward much better supported systems, not Moodle under somebody's desk. I'm not trying to critique Moodle, but unsupported Moodle, which dominates the market. There's such a strong need for schools to take e-learning much more seriously. like And in our report, we reference that we've helped out the World Bank. The World Bank is putting out reports sometime soon that's looking at ed tech investment in this question in the developing world. And even they're curious saying, okay, how are countries that are lower income countries
00:38:13
Speaker
going to be improving their e-learning infrastructure. Now that might be, a Morgan used the phrase like a highly supported Moodle. They might stay open source, but just patching it together on their own, I think that there's an enormous opportunity to deal with that, but it's a lower cost basis. But in the primary markets, I don't see ah any signs yet of change in those stories that we talked about.
LMS Market Stability and Future Outlook
00:38:40
Speaker
Because is that the real opportunity there for a new entrant in addressing that kind of global market? Because it feels again that, I don't know, you had much wider coverage, but I was thinking again about new entrants and something being shook up in the market amongst the floor. Yeah, but in the UK, Aula, come on, you guys had your chance to give us a new entrant. We did, we did. And what happened there got fully absorbed by Coventry, it fell apart.
00:39:07
Speaker
Come on, guys, you had the chance. We did. Yeah, we did. No, fair enough. I mean, like, I think there's definitely still some appetite, but amongst kind of smaller, more innovative institutions over here for alternatives. And we saw that with a product called Agiflow, which has now been purchased by Multiverse, which is.
00:39:25
Speaker
a company set up by Tony Glass's son, Ewan Blair, that's kind of focused on apprenticeships. So I guess I was kind of grasping as to whether there was any hope that you'd seen more globally that we might have a new entrant that kind of shake things up. Because you haven't seen, we've been disappointed in the UK for a couple of weeks. Well, we should call out, and we've put this on the squid chart, Populi, and the US is taking by count of institutions, not by enrollment. It's come up, I think, what is four percent, and so that's taken on. So basically for very small private schools, quite often Christian schools, and that must be part of their marketing or their networking. But you have to call out they're advancing in that market, and there's a reason. I think they're taking
00:40:13
Speaker
the opportunity to say, hey, you're tiny, but you want something supported and cohesive with other parts of the system because they also do a student information system. So there's that. It's not huge, but I think it's worth pointing out the emergence of Populi. And ah yeah, that's interesting. I mean, one of the things that I noted over here was the dominance of Moodle amongst theologically, and small theological higher education institutions. So that could be popular, could be, you know, the the the one reason that they change if it is.
00:40:45
Speaker
Neil, i've got I've got a thing. you know Something we mentioned in the in the report was the the strategy of add-ons and the whole financial aspect you know and the fact that LMSs are somewhat underpriced. And so the way that many places are doing it is by charging for add-ons. I think we've got to sort of think about this going forward, but also I'm starting to see a lot more variability in pricing for a while there, especially at Gartner, where I did like hundreds and hundreds of of contract reviews. I just saw very you know there was a ah trend towards very standardized pricing, very and i'm I'm seeing that start to unravel a bit now, and I wonder if that will be something that we see more of this year and pushing more places to review products.
00:41:30
Speaker
and Another thing that I was taking so in a slightly different direction was just one of the things that's talked about a lot over here, and there's a few examples of this in the in the work that I did, was kind of institution mergers because of the financial situation and that, you know, it's not quite the same as a new implementation or switching.
00:41:48
Speaker
But I just wondered if that is as is something that's a big discussion in the U.S. and whether you think that might get to such an extent that that that might influence the market as well. Actually, of Arizona, D2L school, UAGC, University of Arizona Global Campus, it was Ashford. That's Canvas. Now it's absorbed. It's not that same type of mergers like what you're describing is a different type.
00:42:15
Speaker
I would be shocked if in five years if they were not on a single LMS. So I think they're going to be, and that'll be fun to write about. I don't know if it's a trend, but so I see that one at the very least. You can tell I'm just grasping at straws for any kind of dynamism in the market share, given that we've talked about a slow moving market.
00:42:39
Speaker
yeah i don't I don't think it's in that, but I still, I mean, maybe we're all biased, right? Because we've worked in the space and we've studied it and now you would go to the conferences every year. But um I would say my spin on this is the dynamism isn't in market share changes right now. The real dynamism is in the changing strategies of the companies.
00:43:05
Speaker
on a product line that has become integral, mission critical to universities. um So there is excitement. It's just less and less in the market share side. Yeah. And on that point, I just have to also say this, because I say this every year, the discussions around whether the VLE is dead. Can we just, can we just knock?
00:43:25
Speaker
Can we just not go there because he's becoming, yeah, he's becoming more and more misguided as as the years go by. Well, are you're not allowed to say it's dead or that it's a commodity. I edge both of those. um i I want to make an argument for the desirability of stability and and lack of excitement because i I'm remembering back the afternoon, i think in 2005 Phil and I were leading a sort of strategic exercise in the Cal State University system around trying to get everybody thinking about the LMS and
00:43:56
Speaker
We're in the middle of literally a workshop and they announced that Blackboard had bought WebCT. You know, just trying to cope with, you know, trying to get everybody on board and think about in the middle of that. That was, that was something. Yeah, because our focus was it's not purely about the vendors. You need to figure out your strategy and what your needs are, and then figure out the right partner. And then, clearly, somebody running into the room, ct blackboard by It's like, oh, that doesn't help the message. ah Focus on your needs first. I always find it interesting, given all the points around the kind of nature of the market, it's still always interesting to me to do that annual and your look. And like you say, you know, it might there might not be diners dynamism in the market share. but
00:44:42
Speaker
I feel like there's been plenty to plenty to look at this past year and I think there's yeah more to come for the year ahead. So something that wasn't in our report but I think should be recorded for posterity is I was talking to somebody from Instructure and they pointed out that the EMEA meeting is going to be in Stockholm so I cursed you loudly and publicly. Fair enough. I'm having to go back to Las Vegas and you're going to go to Stockholm.
00:45:07
Speaker
Well, yeah, but isn't yeah if there were just a Stockholm casino in Vegas that was like that it would be the same thing. It's great to deal with this and and it's fun. I think it's very worthwhile. I'm reflecting back feedbacks from the community and maybe we're overplaying the hey, there's a lack of dynamism, but people want to know what's happening. So out of all the post we do and reports and stuff like this, there is just a lot of community feedback of they appreciate this, they appreciate your annual updates to help them think here's what's actually happening in the market so we can figure out what to do. So it is a very important area. It's just we don't have striking market graphs that are changing. Hey, well, it's great talking to you guys and ah thanks for joining us, all of our listeners and watchers.