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Same sea, different boats
231 Plays4 months ago
Thinking about how distance education has evolved over decades and where it is heading? This episode dives into the transformation from traditional universities entering the online space to the democratization of online learning in both the US and the UK. We explore the dominance of the Open University in the UK, the potential for US institutions to enter international markets, and the rise of transnational online learning. Join us as we unravel the complexities of regulatory changes, market opportunities in places like India and Nigeria, and the future of online and hybrid education globally. Tune in to grasp the latest insights and trends shaping the future of education.
00:00 Podcasting plans, US politics, Supreme Court ruling.
05:37 Differing views on TPS expansion's impact.
09:48 Expectation of Labour landslide victory, potential opposition.
13:04 Higher education faces challenges from all sides.
14:17 Interest in AI and micro credentialing strategy.
17:47 Reflecting on past paths before discussing future.
23:38 International demand for online education is growing.
26:13 Paper discusses changing landscape of distance education.
30:48 Challenges in UK online education for undergraduates
33:09 US expansion into UK online education and beyond.
36:23 Australian higher education went premium, like luxury.
38:47 Online education markets in UK, Nigeria, India.
42:10 Strong narrative on upskilling and demand challenges.
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Transcript
Introduction to Global Online Education Trends
00:00:08
Speaker
Hello and welcome to the Midsummer Online Education Across the Atlantic podcast, and we're coming to you today. One of the things we're doing is we're following on from the last podcast we did that really looked at global online education, looking at Europe, looking at APAC, looking at Latin America, Africa, sort of stepping outside of our North America and UK homelands, if you will, and seeing where
Continuation of Future Trends Analysis
00:00:36
Speaker
that's going. But the way we ended up the podcast was getting into, well, what do we think is going to be happening moving forward, just not describing it as is. So today's going to be part two of that discussion and really sort of more
00:00:50
Speaker
future focused on where we see these trends heading globally. So it'll be interesting to see where we go with that.
Impact of US Politics on Online Education
00:00:57
Speaker
um But before we get started on sort of the news items, I will also point out that we're going to take a lighter schedule through July and August. Partially, it's because Morgan and I are heading off to multiple LMS users conferences and travel is going to be quite a bit busy. And after those, I'm actually going to be doing a keynote fireside chat at the R&L, Noah Levitt conference. So there's a lot of travel coming up, but also just so we can get our bearings, say, hey, after this first season of podcasting, where are we and what improvements can be made? So just a heads up, you're probably going to be maybe two more podcasts through August and then we'll get back into our schedule.
00:01:42
Speaker
And we're looking forward to that. So what's been happening lately? ah Boy, in the US, I guess it would be hard to not cover the political and regulatory angle that's happening over here. We did have a debate that had a couple of people talking. And if ah for the purposes of our show, if nothing else, it made it more likely than it was before that we will not have the same administration moving forward, or at least increasing the likelihood that we'll have an administration change, which will have a pretty big impact on regulations.
00:02:23
Speaker
But there are other things that fit into that, and the biggest in my mind is that the US Supreme Court overruled the Chevron deference. And it seems like an obscure ruling, but it's huge. It basically describes that for the past 40 years, there's been this deference in place that if you create a law from Congress, And it's a vague or there are open gaps in what it means that federal agencies, when they try to interpret what was really intended, they have a lot more leeway because there was deference that federal agencies had expertise. So the courts couldn't rule against them unless some of the regulations were arbitrary and capricious. Those are some of the terms you would hear, but in general, you defer to the federal agency.
00:03:12
Speaker
That whole precedent just got overturned, which is going to make it a lot more difficult for U.S. agencies to create rules. But the bigger impact will be it'll it's going to generate a lot of lawsuits challenging federal rules saying, hey, you made up stuff that didn't directly track from what the law said and therefore seeking to overturn a lot of the regulations. We've talked about it that in the U.S., that's been a huge impact lately is the Department of Education regulations. And this makes it also much more likely that a lot of these rules are going to be overturned in court or just won't even come out. So, for example, the question that we've talked about recently with the bundled services exception, are you going to overturn that and get rid of rev sharing for online program managers?
00:04:09
Speaker
That's a little bit of a tricky one, but in my mind, it probably makes it even less likely that we're going to see that overturning of rev share for OPMs, certainly this year and probably this decade, but that's a little bit of a judgment call. So with that summary, I guess I'd sort of turned to to you, Morgan, in particular, what's been your reaction to all of the, like the Chevron discussion and the changes over the past week? Yeah, you know, it it it really does open things up and creates even more uncertainty, which is also not great. We've been living in a state of limbo for a while. And this sort of adds to that. And everybody sort of has been waiting for these things to happen. And and maybe they're not going to happen. As you mentioned, the debate and potential for ah change. And in fact, tomorrow we have the the British election, right? Even more change. Yes.
00:05:07
Speaker
you know, this, although things are are less clear there about what that's going to mean, I've been desperately trying to read the platforms and things. So, you know, I think it just creates uncertainty. And that's not good also, you know, in a way, it it everybody's sort of living in a state of what's going to happen. And, and and maybe I've been doing a lot of reading and things like that. And just the, the drumbeat of of opinion, sometimes can can be overwhelming. Yeah, actually, I have a very different take on that. I agree with you on the drumbeat. But
00:05:44
Speaker
I, if you look at what we've talked about, like the expansion of TPS that came out of the blue, they made that up. It had nothing to do with the original rules. We wrote about it, yet it was poised to have an enormous impact. Well, that type of regulations can become a lot less likely moving forward, meaning that when there's an administration change, it's going to be a lot less likely we're going to take a draconian rule and overrule it and then go the opposite direction. But I will say I'm in the minority. It's not just you that has a different opinion. I was at a conference where I had Bob Shireman and Bob Moran, completely opposite sides of the aisle.
00:06:24
Speaker
they were more of your opinion or on the, this won't solve anything. So I might be the lone optimist that this will calm things down. I also just have a really grim opinion of regulatory overreach. And in part it comes, we got to go way back to when I was a kid about why that happens. You know, I often joke that my be becoming a political scientist was somewhat over determined because I was born in southern Rhodesia, which then became Rhodesia, which then became um Zimbabwe, rhodesia which then became Zimbabwe all before I was 13.
00:06:56
Speaker
or 14. And, ah you know, so seeing this and and and something that was very striking. And then, you know, I lived under da salaf in South Africa under apartheid, and then came to the US in a rather adventurous time. So blame me for like creeping authoritarianism. I brought it to the United States.
Regulatory Overreach and Government's Role
00:07:13
Speaker
It's all my fault. You and Elon. yeah Yes, yes. As if my father was a plumber, not not a diamond miner, or an emerald miner. You know, the thing, when one government does regulatory overreach, it becomes easy for the next one to say, Oh, I'm just gonna do that, you know, like you you seldom get a ah wide back of things. and And so I worry that we'll just see more of it just from a different perspective.
00:07:40
Speaker
I think it's interesting around regulation and government because I think this is a slightly meta point, but I think one of the reflections, because were obviously we're in the middle of an election period at the moment, is like the extent to which governments can actually really affect change. like not This isnt isn't relative to their competence or lack of competence, but like I think governments get into a position where you know, they they want to use regulation to affect change and because they they feel sort of a sense of impotence about changing things. And I think there's often such unintended consequences of of doing that, that, you know, I don't think that's going to change.
00:08:21
Speaker
Well, i and my reading is, and again, I think I'm one of the few who thinks this, I think Chevron decision provides the impetus for a pullback. It's not political that ah agency regulators or even Congress people are going to voluntarily pull back their power. my optimism, or at least I want to watch for it, is that this ruling we provide will naturally pull things back. But, well, that's something we'll have to watch.
Speculation on UK Political Landscape
00:08:51
Speaker
What about, I mean, you guys have your big election tomorrow, right? Or
00:08:55
Speaker
parliamentary, I don't know if it's like part one and there are two fall, I don't know how everything rolls out there, but what what are you expecting over there? And maybe your comment is a ah lead into that. Do you expect any change on the leadership front based on the political goings on in the UK? you You mean it's in a change in the government? of the pi Yeah, um I have not placed any bets on the Tories maintaining power. So that's my smart, that's my betting advice for listeners. But yeah. I need some context here. For years, Phil and I used to bet against each other in elections. I always won.
00:09:32
Speaker
that Yeah, you get that whole political science background that I blame it on, other than my bad judgment. But I guess my question is, do you see any meaningful UK education news based on what's happening politically in the election? I think that's what everyone is trying to work out. I mean, like, the big expectation over here is that Labour are going to be the new party of government and are going to win, you know, a really significant majority. That's kind of what everyone's expecting. But because because of that expectation, you get the kind of counter narrative of
00:10:05
Speaker
You know, actually, it it might not be what people predict. And, you know, some people, because that's been the expectation for quite a while, ah you you kind of might find that people just vote for other parties because they're like, I don't really love Labour, but Labour are going to get in and win. so I think the expectation is Labour are going to win by a landslide and we'll have a new government. I mean, in terms of change, it's difficult because, you know, Labour's strategy has been very much to not upset the apple cart. You know, they're kind of playing a straight back, straight down the line to a lot of stuff, you know, and, you know, they're a party that have in the past had um a reputation
00:10:45
Speaker
particularly amongst their opponents of kind of financial, and not recklessness is a bit harsh, but kind of on the end of the spectrum, and so that they've been kind of keen to, um you know, say that they're not going to do anything that's unfunded, and they've been very, very careful. So It's hard with them because they've been so kind of defensive, I suppose, in their stance, and conservative, small c, in their stance, that it's hard to know what they're actually going to do. i mean The one thing, one of their pledges is that they're going to recruit 6,500 teachers.
00:11:22
Speaker
So that has a degree of influence impact sorry on higher education, because higher education you know is very much in the business of training teachers. But I think a lot of this cycle has been trying to to kind of determine what they're going to going to do. And I think there's been talk of a review of higher education. They did say in their manifesto, higher education is in crisis. So they acknowledge that um in their manifesto. But you know I think you could say this across a lot of different dimensions with Labour. They've been so careful around their campaign and that it you're not sure whether when they come to power they're going to be more radical than they then they've kind of seemed to be or not. so
00:12:09
Speaker
It still watches space kind of stuff for them. But the one positive thing that I would say about the Labour government is that they're talking a lot more positively about higher education. You know, the Tory manifesto is still we're going to um deal with rip-off degrees and and we're going to use that money to fund, you know, things that we think are better like degree apprenticeships. And, you know, they've hammered certain subject areas, whereas actually the labor manifesto is a lot more positive around the role of higher education and the role of certain subjects as well and their importance to our economy and their value to our economy. So, yeah, the short answer to your question, which I haven't given is I don't know, um but that's some of the context behind it.
Critiques on Higher Education by US Parties
00:12:56
Speaker
Well, we are not suffering from that small c conservative stances, uh, over here. So yeah. And I will, it's interesting to point out that, uh, higher education is really under attack, uh, from both sides, ah from the Democrats and the Republican just from very different angles. So. There may be changes in regulations, but there's not that supporting mentality that higher education is real engine of social mobility and let's try some new things or let's support things. So yeah, maybe appreciate what you have found at least for right now.
00:13:35
Speaker
So one final thing before we get into our
LMS Conferences and AI Strategy
00:13:38
Speaker
discussion. As I mentioned earlier on, Morgan and I are about to go do some traveling for the LMS conferences. ah Morgan gets to go straight to Las Vegas, ah where I think the expected high next week is 117, 118. So basically 47 degrees for those who are not Fahrenheit. that's gonna be I mean, I'm here in Arizona, and I'm looking I have a one day stop in Vegas. I'm like, I can't believe I'm traveling in July away from Arizona. And I'm going someplace that's hotter than where I am. But other than that, or Morgan, are you expecting to learn much next week? Yeah, you'll be interesting. You know, I think you you put out the piece. and And one of the things we're looking at is
00:14:23
Speaker
the AI strategy, but also I'm especially interested just given some stuff that I'm working on around, you know, the micro credential kind of support, you know, things like catalog and and also parchment and and those sort of things. And it's always great to go to those things and speak to clients more and get a sense, you know, hang out in the hallways and the you know, the lunch table to sort of to to get a sense of of of how people are feeling and and thinking about that. So that's sort of some of the things I'm going to be looking at. Also, interested to speak to partners, you know, because Instructure has been doing a lot with partners and, you know, a much new strategy. Mitch Benson is is now in that in that role and so interested to sort of see what they're doing there. Yeah.
00:15:10
Speaker
Well, and so next week is D2L Fusion that I'm going to. Morgan's going to InstructureCon. I'm going to drop by InstructureCon on the way home. But if the if the forecast gets any hotter, I might just bypass that and go straight home. The week after that is Anthology Together. That's in Orlando, so I get to add the sweating aspect from the humidity to the heat. But that's going to be interesting. ah Neil, I know you're not going to these three. Any ah questions you want us to go check out for you? Well, I mean, the first obvious one is where was my invite, you know?
00:15:46
Speaker
ah I mean, no, no, not off the top of my head, not off the top of my head, but I'm interested to see I'm interested to see what the kind of developments are going to be. And I'm interested to know, I guess, are there any keynotes that you guys are looking forward to? ah No. You're talking to two pretty cynical people. But ah yeah, the keynotes is when you go get coffee. Well, I guess you go to the corporate keynote so that you can see how the CEO presents the company and the status. But otherwise, I i cannot stand the feel-good keynotes that people bring in. Stuff that has nothing to do with education. When I asked that question, you look very, if I can use a Eurovision, you look very nilpois for keynotes there.
00:16:32
Speaker
Okay. Yeah, I will Google and see if I'm offended or not. I have anti keynote. Most keynotes are completely irrelevant. They don't make any effort to connect it. It's overpriced stuff. You know, rather give us a ah better sandwich. fine i I need to edit my bio. And then in October, but this is obviously a couple months on, that's when the Moodle Moot Global is happening in Marita, Mexico. I can't roll my R's, so I'm just letting you know ahead of time. But ah Morgan's going to be there getting to enjoy what looks like some great food in that area of the Yucatan Peninsula.
00:17:11
Speaker
um But maybe Neil, maybe that's the one you should angle for. And they have no money, so an invite basically means, yeah, you can show up. But that will be interesting in October that we're also doing. And I don't know if we got any confirmation on PowerSchool. Yes, i am I am going to PowerSchool. Gotcha. and And that's in Seattle, so much much more attractive than Las Vegas. Well done with Merida in Seattle. a Good job with that. OK, so with that in mind, let me turn it over to Morgan so we can do part two of our discussion about international online education and trends.
Paths to Growth in Online Education
00:17:47
Speaker
So I want to actually start by pushing back on Phil. but yeah He said we were going to talk about the future, but I like to joke that I'm a pastist. I'm not a futurist.
00:17:56
Speaker
And so I want to sort of reflect a little bit back about how these institutions or how online learning grew, the different paths to that before we talk about the future. And last week, you know, we talked about how open universities were big aspects of of of growing online, like in Spain, like in South Africa with UNISA and so on with you know in the UK. But I think we also get other paths, you know, some of the ones I've thought of are so we've got open universities, we've got MOOCs, which are actually pretty important, especially in places like China and India and the Middle East, I would say as sort of po paving that that pathway for online, you know, we've got dedicated organizations, which maybe is just a different way of saying open organizations, but you know, things like Thompson Rivers and in Canada, and, you know, specifically online, and online kind of places, and then, you you know,
00:18:46
Speaker
I think in in some parts of the world, the pathways programs or the the partnership programs, you know, things like beacon or emeritus or all those kinds of things opening the pathway. Are there other ones that I've missed in terms of how online grows? Well, the one that we talked about last time was, and it's sort of new. And I think this will be an interesting one to explore as you're getting more of the private schools that have a higher growth, but a much smaller base right now. And we, you know, we talked about start. So from a growth perspective, I think you're starting to see that it's not as important, however, in the broad historical, how did we get here? That's definitely more of a, in the past few years and how important is it moving forward?
00:19:31
Speaker
So I guess I just gave a negative example to your question. And I actually left up one of the most closest to home ones, which is the for-profits. Yeah, I guess there is a laureate. We could talk about that. And Phoenix in the US and and things like that. You don't really grow in that. what what what What about you, and Neil, do you think? I think franchised provision i guess is kind of one of the big things over here. so you know i think you mentioned We mentioned last week Unicaf was also a provider based in Switzerland called Robert Kennedy College.
00:20:06
Speaker
that a number of UK universities partner with and they offer they basically validate the the UK universities validate a bunch of degrees that are then delivered online by that college so that would be kind of more of a ah kind of an online franchised thing. So that you know that kind of franchise provision is and pretty common in the UK, but there's a few instances in which that franchise provision involves working with a provider that's kind of dedicated online provider and may may or may not focus on a particular kind of geography. yeah i was this Yeah, I think franchise is a good word. I was sort of talking about that when I was talking about
00:20:46
Speaker
the pathways, but yeah Phil and I have gone back and forth about what we called it. The franchise is a good word. yeah It's a good, it's a good name. But what is this sort of go how is how are things going to unfold going forward in terms of the development of
Global Adoption of the US Education Model
00:21:00
Speaker
that? You know, I make tend to make the assumption because I am based in the US, and I am American, that things are going to unfold in a similar kind of way, you know, rapid expansion into all kinds of of corners, people will see it as a necessity to sort of grow. But do you think that's necessarily
00:21:18
Speaker
the case, are we going to see unbridled growth in many places? Certainly I'm seeing signs of that in places like India, but I could be all wet. I think i I'm always hesitant around being overconfident around growth, um just in general. I think it's just my kind of cautious personality. But I think there's a bunch of different factors that probably come together that would suggest that I think we will see you know decent decent growth. in online students I think in the UK and I've said this many many times like there's the kind of just a necessity if there's a necessity of reaching more students for financial security and you know not quite sure what the next government's going to do around the climate and the kind of conditions for international students coming on campus to UK which has seen a decline because of policy measures
00:22:14
Speaker
But you know that that certainly drives the sense of which we might go to the international market. And that's not just online, but that might be through other kind of arrangements with overseas organizations. So there's that kind of condition. If you can't get the market internationally to come to you, then you know given the financial climate and UK hair education, you've got to kind of go out and and and get it. So I think that's one aspect of it. I mean, I guess as well, you know, there's, I suppose, the maturity of different countries in terms of access to broadband and devices and all those kind of things. And I looked at that a little bit in the in the EU, the sort of interesting statistics and nothing really surprised me, but it's just
00:23:02
Speaker
I guess you have to reflect on those things when you're thinking about growth in online learning where you have kind of countries, that of you know, the percentages are going up around those kind of things. And therefore, that is one enabler of online education. So I think there's a bunch of i just mentioned a couple there, but I think there's a bunch of conditions that would point to You know ah good signs and signals for growth and that and certainly like in terms of the research that I did it was hard to find something that said things are on a downward curve or things have hit a plateau everything I saw was things increasing
00:23:38
Speaker
I think a lot of this, ah you mentioned the UK in terms of, I guess that demand, but things need to change, if you will, or we can't do this without it. I'm putting words in your mouth, but I think that's going to drive a lot of international. And in this case, yes, I'm international as in I'm not talking about the US and I'm actually not even talking about the UK. So for example, national policies about increasing, not just access, we talk about access in the US, but that's a little bit softer than people saying from a natural policy in India, we need to serve this many more tens of millions of students to be ah for, for it to work out with social mobility economics. And there's just no way you can build those campuses. I think in West Africa,
00:24:29
Speaker
and you know all the countries around Nigeria and the growth that you're happening there, you have to have post-secondary growth that just cannot be solved by building face-to-face campuses. And I think that type of need, which is often at the national level, is gonna drive a lot of online growth. However, I see sort of a twist. I think, and this is what I'll be very interested to watch, but I have a feeling to achieve these national goals, these places are realizing national ah open universities are hitting their limits. We have to find other ways to grow. So that's part of the reason I see all these other models, the franchise, the privates, et cetera, is becoming more important where national policy says we have to grow
00:25:23
Speaker
And we can't do it from the open universities at a national level that we created 20 years ago. Those are great. They have a huge installed base, but we have to do more. So you could almost see it. If I'm right, you could almost see this. Maybe the metaphor is not so much what's happening in the U.S. It's more of the LMS market. You have Moodle is the installed base across so much of the world. But the growth of e-learning is really company much smaller base, but the growth is coming from the other systems being used more and more. I don't know if that's a good metaphor, but I just think that ah open universe, I think we're getting a shift in how to provide the growing online enrollment to add to the open universities and potentially even see open universities decline.
Shift in Distance Education Monopoly
00:26:09
Speaker
That might be part of what we're seeing in the UK is early signs of that.
00:26:13
Speaker
I think it's really interesting that that got to me. I was reading a really, I came across a really interesting paper, which was ah basically, and and it's called an analysis of EU policy on distance education from 1957 to 2004. And four there's a really interesting quote stuck out, which was basically saying, nevertheless, it is clear that distance teaching institutions in 2004, no longer have monoly a monopoly over distance education. It's interesting that, you know, this is what 20 years ago, that was being said and there's kind of different reasons for that but I my reflection on reading this paper was that I think now the the paper was actually saying similar things that I've actually said recently in that you basically see more and more but traditional campus-based universities getting into online education for different reasons and that presents a challenge to the traditional distance education institutions that have been around for a long time they have the challenges of
00:27:12
Speaker
keeping up to date when they're kind of older institutions and they have the challenge of of obviously more competition. So i think it's I think that's going to be a really interesting period because I think maybe maybe back then I don't think we had the kind of conditions that we have now for that to happen. And this paper actually talks about the fact that some people came into the market and then came out of the market because the numbers that they were hoping for, primarily international, or we see all this demand internationally, weren't actually met. So you had people entering the market and then exiting the market. And definitely that's happened in the UK. Think of a number of institutions that had 10,000 students, mainly international,
00:27:56
Speaker
in the 2000s and then you know that's declined so but I would I think that that prediction is more likely to Transpire now than it than it is then because I just think there's kind of better conditions for For that to happen. And so that's that's interesting in terms of the market share of those institutions and what they do I've I don't know if I've said previously but the open university over here is considering doing campus based teaching Which kind of speaks a little bit to to to that I will admit that your post either consciously or subconsciously
00:28:33
Speaker
probably influenced my thoughts about this over the past week, although, so I'm your Manchurian candidate.
00:28:43
Speaker
So one of the things I'm sort of interested in is the sort of concentration in online, because you at one point in the US, the top 100 institutions in terms of online had more than 50% of all online enrollments. And we see that sort of eroding a little bit over time. And what you're talking to sort of say yeah is is largely a sort of democratization of online provision. Do you see that going continuing to go forward, even as concerns about quality get more you know informed or or things as and in the US regulation becomes more difficult and you have to jump through hoops, which makes which gives a a leg up to the to the larger providers. Do you still see that democratization going forward? I think in the US, we have a paradox. And I don't think many people understand what you just said. I'm not saying the way you said it, but people think of- And that's true generally.
00:29:37
Speaker
No, but people think about Western governors and um Southern New Hampshire and the rapid growth and the rich getting richer and regulations making it more difficult for smaller players to pull out. And all of those are true. And we've written about that. But the fact is what you just described, it's actually the concentration is less now than it was before. And there is sort of a democratization because there's so many schools trying to do online and there's competition. We're in the US seeing, I think we're going to see a bit of a pullback in that, or we already are to a degree, but not in the concentration, but it goes to sort of what Neil said. You will see players who are exiting the market. So you do see a lot more in and out, try it, exit the market.
00:30:28
Speaker
But I think the general trend I see continuing towards less concentration. Then if you go outside and you go to countries where distance education is dominated by national open universities in particular, I think you're seeing that eroding as well. And I don't see that going backwards either. I think, not for kind of graduate or postgraduate students, but for undergraduate students, the the Open University is massively dominant over here. And I think that will take time to erode, but I think it will erode because ah the focus isn't really on master's programs. I mean, outside of the OU, we don't have a Western Governor's or our Southern New Hampshire University. And I don't think we have
00:31:12
Speaker
one that is likely to reach that position. We don't really have any institutions that I don't think are set up well enough or strategically enough to kind of scale to that level. So I think you know i think we're still, in in general terms in the UK, I think we're still in a phase of increasing market entry. I don't think we've quite got to a stage where people have to rethink their strategies. And I'm i'm not sure how much long-termism, if I can say it like that, is prevalent around institutions in terms of you know how can we how can we win in terms of online education in the long term.
00:31:56
Speaker
But you know I think that seems to be a general trend that we picked up on the kind of challenge of the nationally run distance universities when you see more more people online. And what I think what will be really interesting for me will be the extent to which actually this next 10 years follows the period that I was talking about earlier. Will we just see more entrance in the market and the market just balancing itself out over time and maybe in the UK there being less opportunity for scale but you have to kind of work out your expectations in that context or will we see will we see entry and exit will we see kind of some of the sort of boom and bust maybe that we've seen for some institutions in terms of volumes of students i would hope that it's not the latter that it is more
00:32:49
Speaker
and that more institutions are delivering online and actually over time they just figure out the way in which they're differentiated in that market such that they can kind of, yeah, be successful and kind of offer something of value that's unique to them and place to their strengths. But I don't know. I don't know whether that's gonna happen.
US Institutions' International Expansion
00:33:09
Speaker
Well, I actually, I have a question and we're recording this on the on July 3rd. So in honor of tomorrow, there's sort of a question of ah the reverse colonization. So U.S. organizations.
00:33:24
Speaker
entering more strongly into UK online education, for example, or in other areas. We certainly saw that with, like, laureate education um and as a for-profit and a lot of their international offerings. We've seen OPM providers, not all US-based, but a lot of the US s-based, MOOC and OPM. And they've clearly targeted, and as you've written about, Neil, in the UK, new entrants there. and What's the possibility that U.S. universities will do more even beyond the franchise partner or pathway type of approach of bringing their online presence to the U.S., even setting up operations in other countries? Do we see that as a possible move, expansion for, you know, so it's almost like Western governors Europe or
00:34:21
Speaker
Is there any move there where they might try to do it as like a third wave of US expansion after the for-profits, after the OPMs, a different model? Pure conjecture, but it's something I wonder about. Yeah, it's interesting. um I'm definitely seeing with the US-OPM side of things, because I guess the OPM narrative has been a little bit harder over there. and your generally moment like I can definitely see there being more interest in the UK because we're kind of at like a different stage of cycle. Whether you'd have a situation where you have US
00:34:59
Speaker
universities coming over here, I've tended to think of, you know, you've got the kind of UK, US, Canada, Australia, and others who have kind of good, strong international standing in higher education. And I think because of that, it doesn't make me think that players from those countries are going to dip into the pond of the others they're more likely to look at more emerging markets so that it feels unlikely to me but having said that I'm definitely impressed with some of the um scaled US institutions and the way that they do things and you know I said before there's not really a UK player that you know he's is on a par with
00:35:46
Speaker
Western governors or however it might be in terms of the way that they operate and the way that they might scale. So, you know, but possibly, but I think I'm on the kind of more unlikely end of the spectrum in terms of that happening. But in general terms, I'm inferring from your conversation that you're seeing in general ah potential for growth in terms of transnational online learning. So people big, which has been a small thing going forward, you know, up up until now, but you see that expanding as the whole visa situation and this week, Australia just doubled the cost of international student visas.
00:36:23
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, Australian higher education went premium, didn't it? Yeah. You know, it's like a Gucci handbag or something like that now. So yeah, I think I think I mean, there's definitely been more noise about transnational education in the in the UK. I think, you know, people see that as a growth area. But to to a certain extent, you know, just nodding back to the paper that I mentioned earlier, I feel like that's always been there. You know, from the early 2000s, all the internet's arrived. Online education means that we can reach this mass global market. So I think ah I think it will grow. And I think there's a growing emphasis on it. But I'm always tempered by the failure of history and the
00:37:06
Speaker
a sense in which we can believe the hype around build it and there will come on these kind of things. Before we go on to the substantive next thing, I have two things to to say. One, we need to add a fourth person to this podcast. Somebody with a more cheerful outlook on life. And secondly, Neil, I'm shocked, shocked, shocked. You have not been reading my newsletter. Gucci handbag. It's a Hermes handbag. Come on. You should have the right analogy here. I know. I'm sorry. This just shows how incredibly out of touch I am.
00:37:38
Speaker
But Phil, you were going to say something something important. ah Not as important as the Hermes versus Gucci aspect. I guess I would call out a lot of the hype we see in ed tech and online. It's all in the timeline aspect. Like take that paper, 2004, part of what we're talking about. OK, we're seeing a lot of those things, but we're seeing it decades later, where at the time people were talking about it happening in the next five years. So I think to I think that's where a lot of hype happens is the time frame that's there. So that doesn't mean the overall insight and trends aren't accurate. So if you go to transnational education, I think that that is going to continue growing. I think you're going to see more partnerships like what Arizona we talked about Arizona State University an institution truly partnering with an international institution.
00:38:32
Speaker
Not necessarily showing up, setting up a campus or operations with no affiliations, but a partnership-based transnational. So I do see that happening, but my comment on hype is usually it's based on time frame. Yeah, and I think, you know, just thinking about if you're thinking about from an institution point of view, say in the UK, and you're thinking, oh well, where are the markets for online education, you can think of places like Nigeria and India, I think there's also something to be tempered around their maturity in respect to online education. And
00:39:10
Speaker
you you know i know we talked about the kind of Coursera product developments and how you know they seem to be geared up around trying to attract kind of in deal with the kind of Indian higher education market but there's a sense in which there's challenges around the kind of actual and perceived academic integrity challenges and I think I've seen articles from from kind of Africa around universities that have been set up around online and distance learning and kind of tackling different challenges and perceptions around academic integrity. So I think there are different countries where online distance education is kind of gaining traction. And sometimes that's manifested in the launching of kind of new universities or open universities. But there's also a sense in which in those geographies there, they're moving incrementally and dealing with
00:40:02
Speaker
particular challenges as they go, which I guess will impact on the possibilities that exist for you know institutions in maybe more mature kind of higher education systems. so Okay, let's hear the substantive transition you had referenced, Morgan. oh Oh, no, I was looking to you to provide the substance of transition there. But, um you know, one sort of other thing I was sort of looking at, I mean, so we've seen a democratization of providers, perhaps more places going
00:40:35
Speaker
But also, and and going back to something that Neil mentioned earlier was ah different
Future Focus on Vocational Training
00:40:40
Speaker
types of degrees. You know, so far in many places has been heavily graduate or postgraduate. um Are we going to see it going into other kinds of things? So specifically, you know, two year schools or vocational kinds of things, the micro credential thing as well. I guess I'm sort of this gets to where we have to be careful. Don't just assume people are heading towards what the US is doing, but I would say.
00:41:06
Speaker
I mean, you have Western Governor or Southern New Hampshire, you have Arizona State, you have some of these megas that are handling undergraduate degrees, but they're almost the exception that proves a rule. I see the natural expansion for online beyond ah graduate programs to be more vocational in nature, not to bypass bachelor's degrees, but there's a lot more tie to where students have a direct tie towards this is what I want out of my degree and this is the job I need to have, or this is the economic situation I need to solve. And yeah, there's a risk that education is more transactional in that case, and we lose some of the educated citizen aspect. But I think there's a role of online education much more in the vocational side, whether it's sub-degree or
00:41:56
Speaker
in the U.S., we call it associate degree, further education, whatever. I see that's the more natural area of growth and straightforward bachelor degree type of expansion. So I think it's going to expand, but I would look for it more there. Yeah, and I think I would agree with that because I think, I mean, again, just going back to the the politics, like reading some of the manifestos, you know, people have commented, oh, higher education isn't really being featured. But actually, in a way, given all of the things that an incoming government wants to do around training people in certain ah areas, developing skills,
00:42:32
Speaker
you know There's such a strong narrative around upskilling in national geography, certainly over here. And you tie that with things like you know lifelong learning being a lot more talked about, particularly in places like the EU. and so You know, those are those are kind of interesting drivers that would, you know, on the supply side, that would kind of cause people to kind of, you know, to kind of make more moves in that direction and think of ways so that kind of shorter online offerings can of kind of upskill people and deal with demands and and deal with kind of like growing the economy and things like that. I guess they always the challenges on the kind of demand side.
00:43:10
Speaker
like of the equation on that side of things. And I'm not sure that we have got to the stage that I perceive in the US around the degree and its affordability and its credibility maybe to kind of tilt the balance on that. But I think certainly around the kind of a skills, national skills agenda and lifelong learning and aging population, there's a lot of kind of wider conditions that would, I think would point to opportunities and potential for growth around, you know, shorter online kind of offerings. And actually, I have a conversation with a reporter later today from the American Association of Retired Persons about online learning. Is this an interview or is this a news interview that you're having? A news interview. Sorry.
00:43:59
Speaker
Well, that i this is good. I mean, it and um things are going to take so long to develop. I guess we don't have too much risk that we're sort of projecting what's going forward. But it is good to sort of put our heads together and sort of discuss the the general trends. So with that in mind, we've really enjoyed, I guess you could call this a season of a podcast, is we're going to take a step back and sort of you know recalibrate, see what improvements we can make with the podcast. And this international, as I think Morgan pointed out last time, I guess we're going beyond the Atlantic that we're discussing overall.
00:44:37
Speaker
But I think this is going to be a very active space, is what is the future of online and hybrid education internationally, not just in the UK and North America. But it's great talking to you all and look forward to, for our listeners, look forward to an LMS conference podcast and probably one other before the end of the summer. Thanks.