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Houston 1-0, Auburn on Deck, + Our XII & National Top 8+1 Previews
84 Plays6 months ago
Welcome to our jam-packed Episode #31 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Please have a listen as the 3 Old Men review Houston's season opening win over Jackson St, preview the Big Week 2 game vs Auburn (a match-up of the current top 2 teams on KenPom), & then jump into our preseason previews of the Big 12 & what we're calling our "National Top 8+1 List" of national championship contenders for the season.
We'll continue to provide detailed breakdowns of UH's games throughout the season, so fans can join in on the team's journey towards March Madness by listening in each week.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Episode Introduction: Focus on Houston Cougars and Big 12
00:00:07
Speaker
Welcome, folks, to the episode number 31 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast, podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the Goku's dot com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
00:00:25
Speaker
So we have a jam-packed episode where we've learned from last season and are trying to be a a little bit more on point in these preview episodes. Though we're calling this our combo Big 12 and national preview episode, we will focus our time on what our listeners want the most.
00:00:41
Speaker
which is always Houston Cougars basketball.
Houston vs Auburn: Game Recap & Preview
00:00:44
Speaker
So we'll actually start with a top-line summary of our Cougars game one results over Jackson State, then provide an in-depth preview of the Houston Cougars big game two versus number 11 Auburn this coming Saturday. Then we'll get into our rapid fire previews with some quick hitting snippets for each team and our big 12 projections for the season.
00:01:03
Speaker
and end with what we're calling our national top eight plus one list zeroing in on who we believe are the true contenders for our national championship run. So let's get right into it, guys. Tom, why don't you start off with your quick key points for our Jackson State 97 to 40 win at home to open the season? I think the thing that jumped out to me was the ball movement in on ah offense seemed to have a better flow than we've had the past couple of years, so especially L.J. and Emmanuel.
00:01:33
Speaker
It appeared that when they had a shot, open shot, they took it. It seemed like last year ah they were a little bit reluctant to take ah a shot that early in the shot clock and we'd pass it back out and then ah end up having to force a shot you know late late in the shot clock. So I think overall that was the the main thing. Took out of the game, still had that defensive intensity. Everybody got to play. It was just a shellacking. Very nice. How about you, Bill? What were your thoughts from the game?
00:02:01
Speaker
I mean from a 57 point victory, there' there's there's there's not a a whole lot to comment on. I love the fact that we were 8 of 10 from beyond the three point line at at halftime. We shot over 50%.
00:02:17
Speaker
from the arc for the game. We shot over 50% from the field. We didn't miss a free throw. we we We just dominated them in every statistical category. I mean, it it was just a dominating performance. To mention something about everyone getting to play, Chase did not play at all. And ah this was like an exhibition game. you know there's There's not a whole lot to take away from it.
00:02:43
Speaker
But who knows that could be telling but that that's about it ah for me. It it was a just a blot and we looked good in every single area and every everyone that played looked great. Yeah, I mean, Bill, I don't know if you if you were on the boards or not, but it was shared that the intent is to Richard McCarty.
00:03:01
Speaker
Okay. Yeah. So I don't know if that's like been published elsewhere or not. But certainly, you know, Ryan on Goku's calm had shared that with the board that that's the intent unless something goes awry. Got it. Yeah. I mean, great viewpoint, guys. And for this type of game, it's useless to go through the detailed analytics. So just leave you guys with three that tell the story. We limited Jackson State to 32% effective field goal percentage and only 17.4% from three, which is abysmal. We've Forced turnovers on 31% of their possessions. That's almost a third of their possessions. And we shot 60% from three point range, which I'm not sure we're going to do again this whole season.
In-Depth Analysis: Cougars vs Auburn Strategy
00:03:43
Speaker
And you know what? Our best player box score plus minus for the game was our very new point guard, Milos Uzan.
00:03:51
Speaker
who was a plus 28 for the game with eight points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, four steals, one block in 26 minutes of play, which was incredible. Now let's get into what fans really wanna know in preparation for Saturday's big game versus Auburn. Bill, why don't you start off and give us your player's take on the huge matchup that's really so early in the season and not like what we've done before.
00:04:16
Speaker
Yeah, we're we're playing the number 11 team. We're four, they're 11, so it's a great early matchup. And that'll certainly give us a lot more insights and into the team and ah where we are right now. Auburn, the head coach, Bruce Pearl, the the players love playing for him. they have great camaraderie. ah They play for each other. They certainly play for him and and and he's he's a great coach. Not surprising there.
Auburn Team Overview: Strengths & Challenges
00:04:47
Speaker
You know, Steve, not to steal your thunder, but their sixth nationally last year anyway, and in defensive efficiency. ah They're a good defensive team. They give up 68.3 points or they did last year, but a good defensive team. They were first in in field goal percentage defense in the SEC, second in blocks. They scored 83 a game last year. And like I said, gave up 68.3.
00:05:14
Speaker
they Players, but which we'll focus on, consist of three starters returning. One is a JP, I guess, 62 point guard, 190 pounds, scored 18 and a half points last year, four rebounds, almost five assists came in.
00:05:36
Speaker
He was a transfer a couple of years ago from, from Furman. He's, they're a good shooting team. He is not one of them. He looks to score, but he's, he's not a great shooter. They've got a five star freshman point guard that's coming in, Tahad Petiford.
00:05:52
Speaker
6-1, 175. He also is a point guard who who looks to score. He probably will not be starting against us, but he'll get plenty of time. And and at at some point, he's too talented not to keep off the floor. So they could be starting two point guards. The shooting guard is Miles Kelly.
00:06:13
Speaker
He transferred in this year from Georgia Tech, 6'6", 190, averaged 14 points, five and a half boards, ah led Georgia Tech in scoring last year, good shooter. Denver Jones started last year, 6'4", shooting guard, 6'4", 205, 42% three point shooter. So he's, he's one of their very good shooters. Kelly's going to be a good shooter. Jones is a good shooter.
00:06:39
Speaker
He started his career at Alabama. He played at FAU and that it's his second year at Auburn. I mean, he's he's a good athlete, good player, but he is he's a very good outside shooter. Then they've got to another swing man named Chad Baker Mazara, 6'7", 180. He plays a lot of guard, but he also plays small forward. So he's a swing man.
00:07:03
Speaker
another really good three-point shooter, 42% last year. He is a matchup problem at 6'7". He's long. And if he's playing guard, he's he's tough to defend. And then we get to their best player, Jai Broom. Power forward center, 6'10", 240. He averaged 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.2 blocks last year. Consensus, all-American.
00:07:34
Speaker
He tested the and NBA waters. He was told that he was going to be a mid to to late second round pick. So he decided to come back, work on his game, hopefully improve his his draft stock. Yeah, he he is an extremely good, talented player and he could be a matchup problem. Although with our three big men, I think that any of them can match up well with him and, you know, if we've got to give up some fouls, whatever that might be, I think we've got the depth and the talent to at least some extent to neutralize him. But Kelly and Jones, if if if they get open shots, they're going to need to hit those shots in order to beat us.
00:08:23
Speaker
the, the two point guards, I guess, and, and pet a Ford, they could tend to be shoot first players. And, you know, if, if the ball movement isn't great, which, which typically with Auburn, it is that's going to slow them down. They were a four seed in the tournament last year. They played a ah fairly disciplined team in Yale and got knocked out of the tournament round one. We.
00:08:50
Speaker
can tend to be very disciplined offensively as well. Don't make mistakes. Uzan will certainly help to that extent ah because he's, he's so good with the ball. So that that plays into our strengths. You know, our, our other strengths are defending anybody that we play against, dominating the boards, move the ball offensively. and These are all things we do
Game Strategies: Cougars vs Auburn
00:09:15
Speaker
well. And these are all keys to beating Auburn. And if we do that,
00:09:19
Speaker
We shoot reasonably well, even, even just an average shooting game. We beat Auburn. If we shoot well, then we win comfortably. And I see us beating them 78, 70. How about you, Tom, from a coach's perspective? I see a contrast of styles. Uh, you know, Auburn, they want to play a high octane. They want to get up and down the floor. The problem is, is, uh, we're.
00:09:45
Speaker
if not the number one team and transition defense were, were up there. So my prediction is Auburn probably kind of get kind of frustrated because they want to get up and down and then, you know, then they get back on defense and they, they got to grind it out. So big contrast of styles, the strength of Auburn, like Bill Lutu, is there a three point shooting and then Jenai Broome down low like Roberts, he's a lefty.
00:10:12
Speaker
However, we do monster the post, so anytime he gets the ball with his back to the basket, you know we we send the other big men there, and then ah we make him pass, and we'll see what kind of passer he is.
00:10:24
Speaker
If he's not a good passer, we can get turnovers out of that. If he's a, sometimes they're reluctant passers and they they end up forcing some shots against the double team. So should be a good matchup this time of the year. I think another thing we have in our favor is ah we have more continuity as far as players in the program Auburn's trying to.
00:10:44
Speaker
you know, mix and match some players in the program. So at this stage of the season, we might be a little more cohesive than Auburn is. Otherwise, it should be a good one. So from an analytics perspective, I just want to remind folks that we used last season's ending Ken Palm stats early in the year when we preview games until we get to late December when an update has come through for the current season's analytics to be meaningful.
00:11:10
Speaker
So in looking at 2024's season ending numbers to give folks a better sense of what to expect, there's very, very little separating the two teams where UH was number two in Ken Palm and Auburn was at number four. We were 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency while Auburn was number six, as Bill had mentioned, in adjusted defensive efficiency.
00:11:32
Speaker
On the flip side, as everyone knows, UH was number two in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Auburn was a highly efficient number 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. On offense, Auburn's been one of the better shooting teams in the country, ending last year at number 35, an effective field goal percentage, and are especially deadly from two point range, where there were number 22 in Ken Palm with Broom at the center of it all.
00:11:57
Speaker
They also don't turn the ball over a lot, ranking number 55 in Ken Palm and turnover percentage. Then you match that up against our number two effective field goal percentage D that defends every single shot. And we're especially great at specifically defending the two point shot, which is their staple. We were number two in block shots percentage and number three in steals. So I think as long as Francis is well healed and back for us in this game, because Auburn is really big up front, I think we're going to be okay.
00:12:27
Speaker
On the flip side Auburn's D is like us and has been exceptional and very similar in many fronts where they ended last season at number one effective field goal percentage D according to Ken Palm.
00:12:40
Speaker
They were actually even better than us at defending the two, being number one in two-point field goal percentage D. But they don't force turnovers, ranking 104th, or defensive rebound all that well, which is surprising, where there were a number 223rd in Kenpham. Keys for us will be hitting our threes and offensive rebounding like heck, and which we always do, and just getting more shots up.
00:13:04
Speaker
to win in the end. Based on metrics, this is projected to be a five point win for the Cougs at the Toyota Center by Ken Palm. And I think it's going to be a bigger win, similar to what Bill was saying, especially with Tuggler and Arsenault back this season. So I've projected a seventy eight sixty nine nine point win on the go Cougs dot com boards.
00:13:24
Speaker
Okay, now so as we go to our Big 12 regular season conference record and standings for the season, we did our own rankings and have combined them for a consensus list. Our top nine teams are very similar with only one team with two or more spots differential in our rankings.
00:13:42
Speaker
And that was ISU. But a few more differences from spots 10 through 16, where the biggest gaps were with Bill being a bit higher on Arizona State at number 11, where Tom and I had them at number 13 and 15, respectively.
00:14:00
Speaker
And myself being higher on Utah at number 12, where Tom and Bill had them at 16th and 14th, respectively. And we'll get into those differences more as we go along. So no surprise, all of us had Houston at number one.
00:14:14
Speaker
in our last episode, we went in depth on our Cougars. So folks can go back and listen to episode 30 to get the details on our Cougars.
Big 12 Team Rankings: Kansas and Iowa State
00:14:23
Speaker
But number two, our consensus was Kansas overall, which was not necessarily a slam dunk. Tom, why don't you go first with your coach's perspective on the Jayhawks?
00:14:35
Speaker
I actually have Kansas ah three, but Kansas is bloated. I remember Bill Self last year, he was frustrated ah with all the injuries he had. McCuller was out for, I don't know how long, Dickinson missed some games. So he went out and he said, never again would he be caught in this situation. So he went out and hit the portal pretty good. ah Kansas does lose. ah Johnny Furphy went to the NBA, and they also lost ah Kevin McCuller, NBA player also. ah But they do have Hunter Dickinson back, their point guard, Juan Harris, and they have hey KJ Adams, their small forward, power forward.
00:15:14
Speaker
And then they added some scoring for some other schools. They got AJ Soar from Wisconsin. They got Rylan Griffin, a shooter from Alabama. They got a point guard named Zeke Mayo, who's actually from Lawrence, Kansas, a South Dakota state transfer. Zach Clements, 6'11", big man. He redshirted last year. So he should be expected to see some time. And then they have another five star Center coming in, he's from the Congo, Florie by Dunka. So they're loaded. They have a player from Houston, Jamari McDowell, Manville High School. He's going to be a a sophomore, I believe also. And they have an NIU transfer, a guy named David Colt. So Kansas talent wise, they're loaded. The big thing is how they're going to play on the road. We all know when they play with the fog.
00:16:07
Speaker
Um, you know, they're front runners. Uh, you know, they're, they're really, really good at home, but I have them at third because I don't think they're a tougher team than Iowa state. And I think, uh, you know, where are you finishing the conference is how well you're going to be able to play at home. And I just see, I would say this is a tougher team. All right. How about you, Bill?
00:16:28
Speaker
Yeah, Tom, you pretty much stole all my thunder. ah Sorry, Bill. I was going to talk about the newcomers that that are on their way in. And that's this is why I have Kansas rated higher. You know, we were talking last week and.
00:16:46
Speaker
talking about U of H and how it was like Noah's Ark. There's two of everything, two point guards, shooting guards, small forward, power forward center. Kansas is in in exactly the same shape now. They had no depth last year. The injuries just didn't have enough players and this year they're loaded. I really like Zeke Mayo. I think he's going to be very effective for them. Griffin is a very good player. And then, you know, AJ Stor was Wisconsin's leading scorer, best player, all Big 10, and he's going to be coming off the bench for Kansas. So
00:17:23
Speaker
They are really deep and and that's why I have them at number two in the conference and why I, when we get into our national picks, I've got them really high as well. All right. I cheated and they had KU tied second with ISU with one more conference loss than our Cougars just didn't know what the tiebreaker was. So I had them tied for a second in the conference nationally. I think KU ends up with a higher ranking just based on strength of schedule as well as just reputation.
00:17:52
Speaker
You guys have already covered the new players coming in to supplement the core. And so I'm not going to cover any of that. But from a preseason metrics perspective, they also come in just a hair over Iowa State on Ken Palm, Hausland Metrics, and Bart Torvicks. The preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number seven in the nation. They're number seven in offensive efficiency and number nine in defensive efficiency. So very, very well balanced.
00:18:18
Speaker
They've got an all time great coach himself, who is the only coach in the conference I would conceivably rate higher than our very own coach Samson. So though they have a lot of new pieces, I trust him to be able to mold them into a cohesive unit come March Madness.
00:18:33
Speaker
Now, number three on our consensus and we got to move more quickly throughout the rest of the list because we've got, you know, another 14 to cover was Iowa State. And where we had the biggest difference with Bill having them fourth while both Tom and I had them second. So, Bill, why don't you go first with your players' perspective on the Cyclones and why you had them fourth?
00:18:56
Speaker
Yeah, just to make it clear, I had Baylor, Iowa State, and Arizona, and even a nod to Cincinnati, almost interchangeable. But ah I have Iowa State fourth, and the one thing that I'm usually a ah huge proponent of is experience in the back court, and they've got their back court back.
00:19:21
Speaker
Lipsie, who may be the best point guard in the conference, and then Keeshawn Gilbert. yeah Very good. The only star they have back in the front court, and nobody from U of H cares to hear this name, and I'm sorry that I have to say it, is is Mom Silovich, who hit that dagger to beat us in Ames.
00:19:45
Speaker
but you know he can pass the ball reasonably well he's a he's a good shooter but i didn't especially like what they're bringing back in their front court i don't think they're incredibly strong ah i don't know that they're uh just that solid up front. They did bring in one player. He's from Charlotte he and he does everything. His name is Deshaun Jackson. He's 6-11, 2-80. He scores, he rebounds. there There's nothing he doesn't do, but played lesser competition. You know, we'll see how their their front court plays out, but I thought that there were some areas there where therere they're not as strong this year and
00:20:29
Speaker
I gave the nod to Baylor at, well, number three behind us in Kansas. And I'm sure a lot of people will well question that. and And I had to question it myself after they got just annihilated at Gonzaga. But but i I assume we'll we'll get to Baylor. Yeah, we'll get to that. How about you, Tom?
00:20:50
Speaker
ah picked I picked Iowa State second just because they're a tough team. And I think ah the toughest teams win. Ken Palm had them as the number one ah defensive team. Bill Yew loses some of the, you know, the players they bring back to court. Lipsey is kind of ISU's version of Jamal Shad.
00:21:08
Speaker
You know, he was, uh, he was heard a little bit toward the end of last year. Interesting thing. The other day, they didn't start mom Cylovich the other day in their first game. They started Joshua Jefferson, the transfer from St. Mary's. And I, since the internet's free, I went and I scoured it and I was trying to see if mom Cylovich was injured or anything. It wasn't, it was a coach's decision ah not to start him and not sure why, but they started, uh, Lipsi Kishan Gilbert, who was the big 12 tournament MVP.
00:21:38
Speaker
They had Deshawn Jackson at center and they had Joshua Jefferson at forward. They do lose Robert Jones and Trey King to their big guys who were instrumental in their win at Hilton last year.
00:21:52
Speaker
They brought some other portal additions in. They brought a shooter in from UNI, a guy named Nate Hice. But basically, pretty much about 80% of the same team they had last year. So this conference is going to be a crapshoot with a lot of teams. we just We don't know how some of these new players are going to come in and gel. And that's what makes it fun, but besides U of H. i you know we We have no doubt they're going to win the conference.
00:22:20
Speaker
Absolutely. I actually think ISU is the second best team in the conference, though I also believe that they end up tied with KU in the standings from a conference record perspective.
Team Analysis: Iowa State Defense & Baylor Concerns
00:22:30
Speaker
Their preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number eight in the nation.
00:22:34
Speaker
They're number 30 in offensive efficiency, and number two in the defensive efficiency. So not quite as well balanced as KU, but still elite. Like us, they win with D, focused on defending every shot and turning people over. What I love most about them is exactly as you had highlighted, Tom, it's their physicality, just like Houston. Now, number four in our consensus was Baylor. So Tom, why don't you go ahead with your takes on Baylor?
00:23:01
Speaker
Well, after the Gonzaga game, uh, they didn't, they didn't look too good. They had a highlight real dunk and, uh, you know, that was, that was the highlight of their night. I think Gonzaga beat them by about 40, but you know what March madness is four months away. Yeah. And we've seen it before teams. There's some teams that look really, really good. You know, you turn on Thanksgiving a week, you turn on the.
00:23:27
Speaker
Malumitational, whatever. And there's always a team or two that just wiles you and the Arizona happens, you know, uh, there's an ah old coach and coach and maximum that you either get better, you get worse. You never say the same. Whether that's true or not, you know, it kind of seems that way where some teams just kind of seem to peak right about at that time. So Baylor's in the opposite boat here. They just got ram rotted, but I think Scott drew, he's another hall of fame coach. He'll write the ship, but.
00:23:57
Speaker
They played a lot of hero ball on offense and defense, and they they weren't connected on either end of the floor. But they do have Jade Nunn coming back from last year. They picked up a Duke transfer, Jeremy Roach. Langston loved to employ. He's injured, so he'll give him a boost. Norshad O'Mear, who played for Miami when they beat us a couple of years ago, he comes in. And then they have a couple of five-star freshmen, Vijay Edgecombe. He struggled against D1 defense.
00:24:27
Speaker
Overall, they got just destroyed, but like I said, you know, March Madness is four months away. Scott Drew's not, you know, he just didn't fall off the old turnip truck. You know, he didn't take a dummy pill. There's talent there with Baylor, Holofame Coats. So Baylor will get it fixed. Okay. How about you, Bill? What's your take on Baylor? I put them at at three and like I said, three, four, five and contemplated cincinnati six for any of those spots yeah baylor baylor got just crush the other night
00:25:02
Speaker
they lost the first half by nineteen points they lost the second half by nineteen points thirty eight point loss ad For a Baylor team, the the shooting percentage was absolutely abysmal. I think they shot three of 21, if I'm not mistaken, from three. I mean, just ah just a brutal night. But I was talking to a ah ah basketball savant, Jeremy Gonser, who said, think of it like Tiger Woods coming out and double or tripping triple bogeying the first hole, and then coming back to
00:25:38
Speaker
you know, end up shooting five under. It's like, look, he got off to a bad start and then he played. like he's going to play, and no guarantees that that's going to be the case with Baylor, but they've got a lot of talent. I think Jeremy Roach coming in from Duke, their new point guard, I think he will definitely help them right the ship. Having gone to Miami a couple of times, ah kind of a fan of O'Mear, and I think he's going to help them. and
00:26:10
Speaker
The one five star that I had written down was was Edge Combs. I think he's gonna be a really good player. He chose Baylor over Duke and Kentucky at the end and Baylor of the top teams is the only one that technically is returning zero starters. But a lot of them are so interchangeable. Non-started games and in any event, I just think that Scott Drew is gonna get all that talent moving in the right direction. All right. I agree somewhat super talented team. I love Baylor and coach drew and how they run their program, but I'll be honest. I, and I said this last year as well. I don't trust their defense since Tang left.
00:26:57
Speaker
And the numbers bear that out. Their preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number 26 in the nation after the loss to the Zags. They were number 12 in offensive efficiency and number 59 in defensive efficiency. And even worse last year, I think they were in the seventies. Great coach, great talent, but I don't see the grittiness to be top three in this conference.
00:27:20
Speaker
Now, number five, our consensus was newcomer Arizona. Bill, why don't you start off with your take on the Wildcats? Well, Arizona's only returning one starter, although a pretty, pretty good one starter. Uh, but they've, they've brought in a ah lot of talented newcomers. Uh, the one starters, Caleb love the six four shooting guard who had previously transferred from Carolina and he's played well at Arizona and he he is going to be in the NBA. ah But again, the only starter back, KJ Lewis, small forward is back. One player that they brought in who may end up being better than love and and having a huge impact is a 6'7 power forward named Trey Towns. And he's coming in from Oakland. And for anyone who follows basketball, Oakland's
00:28:18
Speaker
they They consistently make the NCAA tournament. They they had a deep run a couple of years ago. This guy is really, really good. He led Oakland in virtually everything.
00:28:31
Speaker
and He's going to be a really good player for them. ah By the way, KJ Lewis, he came on late played really well for Arizona small forward. He actually, he played in the G league elite camp over the summer. And so I think he's ready to break out and.
00:28:53
Speaker
They've got another really strong big guy, Toby Awaka, coming in. He's a center. He played at Tennessee and he transferred in. He plays defense rebounds, which is something that you know, that Arizona doesn't always have at their disposal or at least their players tend not to want to do so. But I think that five is probably a pretty accurate spot for them. They've brought in some really, really good players. All right. How about you, Tom, from a coach's perspective on Arizona? I think it's going to be interesting for Arizona. I got a fifth, but I wouldn't be surprised if they finished anywhere from, from five to nine.
00:29:37
Speaker
And the knock on Arizona is the lack of toughness since Tommy Lloyd took over. Half the roster are international players. But Bill was right on this about Trey Townsend, the player from from Oakland. He's just tough. He's built like a Sherman tank. He's like 6'6", 6'7", 235. And Oakland, you know they had the upset they beat Kentucky last year in the first round. I don't know how Lloyd will use them, but at Oakland,
00:30:04
Speaker
Greg camp to coach there, but just put them in the elbow area and, and, uh, in towns that would catch it at the elbow and then just muscle his way to the basket or drive. Uh, just, uh, just a fantastic player. Bill mentioned the Tennessee transfer, uh, Walker, he should bring some much needed toughness for Arizona. Yep. They look impressive in, you know, in non-conference and then, yeah.
00:30:33
Speaker
their lack of toughness, it comes to bite them in the butt. And we'll just we'll just have to, we'll just have to see. Yeah, that's been their MO. I love, love that we've added Arizona to the big 12. And I love coach Lloyd, but quite a few new key players, as you guys had mentioned, and they're new to the rigors, the big 12.
Arizona in Big 12: Adaptation Questions
00:30:52
Speaker
And that's why I have them below the top four. Their preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number nine in the nation after game one.
00:31:00
Speaker
They're number 10 in offensive efficiency and number 10 in defensive efficiency. So they have been making improvements on that side of the ball each year that Lloyd has been coach. So very balanced like us in KU. The question is, can they adapt from the soft pack style to the bruising Big 12?
00:31:21
Speaker
Now, number six in our consensus was fellow former American conference, Cincinnati. Tom, why don't you go ahead with your coach's perspective on Cincy? Well, Coach Wise, you have Wes Miller, I believe he's entering what, third, fourth year at at Cincinnati. He's trying to build a program kind of like a Kelvin Sampson program built on toughness. He does have quite a bit of continuity ah coming back from from last year's squad. Jizzle James was a freshman last year, really, really athletic.
00:31:54
Speaker
player. I really like Dan Skillings. you know He's ah like a 6'7 guard slash slash wing. You have the Lithuanian. He's 6'8". His name is Simas Lukosius. Something like that. that list iranian That's right. He plays you know guard wing 6'8". Pretty good shooter.
00:32:19
Speaker
You have, uh, the Texas transfer Dylan Mitchell, wildly athletic, but, uh, kind of inconsistent he needs to work on a shooting, uh, off the bench. You bring in day to day Thomas, you know, he's a solid player, the Iowa transfer CJ Frederick, who was injured most of the last year. He comes back. Wes Miller did pick up a Bradley transfer who shot 40% from three point line Connor.
00:32:42
Speaker
Looks like Connor Hickman. He's got a couple of four-star recruits. I think it'll be tough for them to ah to get playing time. He does have a ah rim protector and Aziz Bandago. He's seven foot. He's in his fifth year. So Cincinnati has the makings of, you know, going to the tournament, NCAA tournament and possibly jumping Arizona. All right. That's a hot take.
00:33:10
Speaker
How about you, Bill? What's your players' perspective on Cincy? I love Cincinnati this year. Cincinnati, who yeah barely made the NIT last year, I have them at 17 overall this year. They they went 7-11 in the conference last year. So four games under 500. Eight of those 11 losses were by five points or less. I mean, they they were in a ton of games. they They could have had a much better record last year.
00:33:39
Speaker
played us extraordinarily tough yep at Cincinnati. I really like this team. I mean, Tom, you you've mentioned that. I'm not going to get into all all the players you mentioned because I know we've got time constraints, but I like skillings. I like Day Day Thomas, James, you know, Dylan Mitchell's an interesting addition. Frederick who who started at Iowa and then transferred to Kentucky. He's been injured, I think, every single year that he's played basketball. I think probably since he was about three years old, it's it's unbelievable that the he could be the best shooter in the entire country, but he can never get on the court. If he's healthy, he could be a difference maker. I really like Cincinnati this year.
00:34:25
Speaker
I agree with you guys. Coach Miller has been building back this program brick by brick, finally building up the roster that can compete and play the physical style in the Big 12. The preseason adjusted efficiency margins number 15th of the nation after game one, number 29 in offensive efficiency and number 12 in defensive efficiency. So yet another very balanced team in the Big 12.
Cincinnati & Texas Tech: Potential and Performance
00:34:50
Speaker
Question is, can they score more efficiently this year because they were a bad shooting team and turn the ball over a ton last season. I think they do with more maturity and some more talent this season. Now, number seven in our consensus big 12 standings was Texas Tech. Bill, why don't you go ahead with your players' perspective on Tech. Yeah, Tech has two players, two starters back, and
00:35:16
Speaker
They lost their starting backcourt and then quite honestly, they lost a great backcourt. Uh, pop Isaacs and, uh, Joe Toussaint who were two really good players. I'm um still kind of surprised that tech somehow let Isaacs go to, to Creighton to finish up his career. But yeah, nevertheless, tech could be the best three point shooting team in the conference. Uh, Chase McMillan chance McMillan, excuse me.
00:35:43
Speaker
And, uh, Darren Williams are, are both great shooters. the The thing about tech is that they, they shoot from the perimeter and they play extraordinary defense. So it kind of plays into what you guys were talking about with Iowa state, grant McCaslin.
00:35:59
Speaker
coaches defense and prioritizes it and to replace probably Toussaint who is more of the point guard, even though Isaac's handled the ball a ton. They brought in a kid named Elijah Hawkins, who's just an assist machine. He's coming in from Minnesota.
00:36:19
Speaker
The only other player I'll mention is a 6'9 power forward from New Mexico named J.T. Topp. And he also tested the ah the NBA waters and and decided to come back and then transferred to Tech. Awfully tough to lose your starting back court, but they've got a good team. They're very well coached. And and so I think seven is is pretty appropriate. How about you, Tom, from a coach's view on Tech? I see Texas Tech as an NCAA tournament team again.
00:36:49
Speaker
Grant McCaslin, excellent coach. When he was at North Texas, they were one of the best defensive teams in the league and they played ah you know at at a slow pace. Last year, I thought Tech played a little bit faster than, yeah you know i was like I was expecting sludge, you know like ah you're playing in concrete Nike's, ah but they played you know they play faster than I thought they were. And maybe that was because he doesn't have ah you know his roster yet.
00:37:15
Speaker
So maybe this year we'll see more of the North Texas style when McCasklin was, was there, but the key addition, I think was like Bill allude to is the point guard, Elijah Hawkins. Uh, he's unselfish point guard. I'm not saying that pop Isaacs was selfish, but he was pretty much a shoot first, ask questions later type point guard. So yeah, you that might make a difference this year with them. Uh, but I see tech is a tough out who's ever playing them.
00:37:46
Speaker
And, uh, you know, I've seen him as a NCAA tournament team again. Yeah, i as well. I've got a lot of faith in coach McCaslin, but I was surprised at how they won last year. It was more dependent on offense, like you mentioned, Tom, than Dee, like how they won at North Texas. The preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number 11th in the nation after game one. Number 17th in offensive efficiency and a surprising number eight in defensive efficiency. So there's a bit of confidence he reverts back to his defensive ways this season from the analytics guys.
00:38:20
Speaker
Since tech quite honestly, they weren't that great on D. They were like so number 65 in defensive efficiency last season. They've recruited well and I trust McCaslin. That's why I've got them so high. Now, number eight in the conference, our consensus was BYU was going to be in that slot. Tom, why don't you go ahead with your coach's perspective on BYU? Speaking of coaches, they have a brand new coach and Kevin Young. Kevin Young has experience.
00:38:48
Speaker
and a whole bunch of different professional leagues. Most recently, he comes as an assistant coach for the Phoenix Suns. He really doesn't have any experience. ah You have to go back to, I think, the 2007 season was the last time he was doing some college coaching, and he wasn't even he wasn't a head coach.
00:39:06
Speaker
but He's brought in some players, some highly talented players. He has two of them. ah Both these players are projected ah first round pick. One of them is projected to be in the top 10. So you're looking at a six foot eight. I think his name is pronounced cannon, canin, catchings. And then you have a six nine guard and Igor Dimon. I believe it is BYU last year.
00:39:33
Speaker
Their weakness was inside, like Al McGuire used to say, they were a donut team. You know, they had nothing in the middle. They brought Trey Ore. That's his last name. They brought him off the bench last year. He gave him some, some inside presence and, and he returns. Richie Saunders, Dallin Hall. They did get a transfer, a big man from, from Utah, Kiba Kieta. So I think last year, you know, BYU, they, they lived by the three and they died by the three and.
00:40:03
Speaker
Sometimes that's a tough way to play when they're going down great, but when when you're missing them, not so not so great. So I do think they do have a little bit more of an inside presence this year. They should be a fun, exciting team to watch. Bill, what's your player's view on BYU? Well, it's hard to say what to make of them right now because because Kevin Young's coming in, Mark Pope went to Kentucky, the head coach. Young coached the Phoenix Suns. and He said this is his absolute dream job, dream scenario. He and his wife are members of Church of Latter-day Saints. and So hes he's Mormon and coming to BYU and this is where he wants to be. I think from this point forward, yeah just to save us time, I'm i'm not going to mention more than two or at most three players from any team. but
00:40:58
Speaker
But the two, and and Tom, they were the first two you mentioned. Catchings, who comes from the, if if any of you remember basketball from the 70s and definitely into the 80s, Harvey Catchings was the center in the NBA, played for the Bucks among other teams. I mean, he was a top 30 recruit.
00:41:17
Speaker
and then Igor Demin, a 6-9 shooting guard, and yeah everyone's talking about him being a lottery pick. So they brought in some players. You know, Dallin Hall, I like their point guard. He's definitely a past first player, and so I think they stay in the top half of the conference because got him running the show and they've got some talent. They've still got some good three point shooters that that are back, but it's just hard to say, you know, how they're going to play, what they're going to do. I imagine they'll still shoot a lot of threes, but with a brand new coach who doesn't have any NCAA coaching experience, there's there's not a lot to draw on. So we'll we'll have to see how things play out. Yeah, completely agree.
00:42:02
Speaker
New highly touted NBA assistant and Coach Young was armed with some serious NIL dollars to assemble the team he's got coming in this season. I think I'm buying into the hype some to even have them here at number eight. So we'll see. Their preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number 19th in the nation after game one.
00:42:21
Speaker
number 22 in offensive efficiency and number 27 in defensive efficiency. So a broken record, another very balanced team in the Big 12.
BYU & West Virginia: New Coaches and Recruits
00:42:30
Speaker
I don't have much else to go on other than they have the most unknowns, quite honestly. And to me, they're the most fascinating team to follow this year. And so I'll definitely be following very closely. Now, number nine, our consensus was Kansas State. Tom, why don't you go ahead. ah Just like a couple of years ago, Jerome Tang has basically a A new team again, a lot of roster turnover, did bring him some talent. You got Illinois transfer Coleman Hawkins, 12 points, six rebounds, $2 million dollar man. That's the word on the street is what it took for K-State to bring him in. So man, that's that's a lot of that's a lot of money for a guy that had average 12 and six. They did bring in a chore, a chore from Sanford, really good player.
00:43:20
Speaker
Brendan Howson from, from Villanova. ah They did bring in Michigan's leading scorer, Doug McDaniel at point guard, but he didn't start the other night. He came off the bench. So, and then a whole host of other players to too many to talk about. So once again, K state is pretty much a mystery team. Don't know how all these disparate parts are going to fit together and in jail, you know,
00:43:48
Speaker
A couple of years ago, they fit perfectly, jailed, and they made ah they made a run at the Final Four. How about you, Bill? Well, I don't have them at nine. I've got the one spot lower. ah that Only one starter returning. Yeah, I mean, they lost their entire back court. They lost Columa, the small forward. I think it's going to be a tough year for for Kansas State. they They brought in a lot of players. Tom, you mentioned them all.
00:44:18
Speaker
McDaniel, Howson, Hawkins, they brought in a seven footer from Kentucky, but I think it's going to be a tough year for them. Probably not even as good as they were last year. Yeah, I think you may be right. I don't like all the player turnover at K-State, but I do really like Coach Tang. Love his philosophy in helping young men grow and love his take on accountability. The preseason adjusted efficiency margin is only 51st, even after Big game one win. They're number 75 in offensive efficiency and number 20 in defensive efficiency. Problem with them was offense last year. So the question is, can they get it to a point of good this season? They can correct the turnover problems from last season. I think they may be one of the last teams in the conference that go dancing. Now, number 10, our consensus was UCF. Bill, why don't you go ahead with your players perspective?
00:45:13
Speaker
So I think you have them, uh, uh, you're pretty high on them. I had them one spot higher. I have them at nine. And for anyone that's that started out watching this season, they beat A and&M on Monday night, but that that's not entirely surprising. They beat Kansas at home last year. They, they beat Texas. They, they, they beat some highly ranked teams or, or at least ranked teams. Kansas certainly was highly ranked. I think they were number three at the time, but they, they play well at home.
00:45:42
Speaker
they've got a very good back courtt a very very good back courtt coming back darius johnson six one point guard but he's a shooter six four jaillin sellers two guard he's a shooter those two are are going to be their keys They brought in ah couple of really strong additions. Keeshawn Hall, a 6'7 swing man from George Mason, who could do an awful lot. And Benny Williams, a 6'10 power forward from Syracuse, who is a defensive player. He rebounds, so that that's going to fit in well for for Johnny Dawkins. ah And just one more, they've got a 7'2
00:46:24
Speaker
center. He was a five-star recruit. He's still a little thin and he probably needs to put on some weight to to be effective, but his name is Musafa Thiam. But he was a five-star recruit, so we'll see how that plays out. I think UCF is going to be better than most think this year. They still may not be good enough to make the tournament, but I think they're going to be right on the bubble ah at the end. Yeah, maybe. Tom, what's your coach's view on UCF?
00:46:53
Speaker
Yeah, the you know, the big a win over A and&M the other day, and they did that without Jalen Sellers. You know, he was, yeah he's still sitting with, with an injury. They got off to a horrific start. Couldn't hit a bull in the butt from five feet, but settled down, started making some shots. Typical Johnny Dawkins team is, you know, they're good rebounding team. They play good defense. Not going to go through all the players, but you know, they're going to be guard oriented. If you look at any kind of weakness.
00:47:19
Speaker
you know It's probably going to be in the and in the front court, but they probably won't look to the front court guys for for much scoring. So just look for them for defense <unk> defense and rebounding. All right. I'm not a fan of Coach Dawkins. I just feel like they continue to tread water season over season. However, I will admit that he's assembled a very talented but enigmatic team this season. So for me, they're the second most interesting team to follow in the Big 12 because I think their upside is very high, but disaster could could really render them.
00:47:54
Speaker
you know, bottom feeders if the talent doesn't mesh. Their preseason adjusted deficiency margin is number 60 after their big win over Texas A and&M. Number 85 in offensive efficiency and number 34 in defensive efficiency. They just have to shoot better and turn the ball over a lot less this season. They have the talent. Let's just see if Dawkins can mold this team of athletes. Now, number 11 in our consensus B12 rankings was TCU. Tom, why don't you give us your take?
00:48:24
Speaker
Led by Jamie Dixon. I can, you can almost call Jamie Dixon, Jerome Tang light. Cause they both have the same colors I get both teams mixed up in my head, but they both have roster turnover. And that's no different this year. So, you know, they did get a ah former Kansas recruit, big man, Ernest, uh, Uday.
00:48:48
Speaker
They got another transfer from Green Bay, another one from, you know, I could just go on and on and on. They're transfer from here, transfer from there. So once again, you know, there's a little bit of talent there. Just see how, how well it meshes. Yeah. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective with TCU?
00:49:07
Speaker
Yeah, one starter back. However, they lost their top seven scores. They lost nine players. The team is now comprised of one starter, six freshmen, and five transfers.
00:49:23
Speaker
I like Jamie Dixon. This is not going to be a good year. Yeah. I agree. That's that. I agree. I was a big fan of Coach Dixon from his days at Pitt. And I like his ability to adapt to a much quicker pace at TCA when his old style just wasn't working. Their preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number 55 in the nation after game one.
00:49:42
Speaker
number 47 in offensive efficiency and number 65 in defensive efficiency. So balance as well, but not great right on either side. Question is, can they stop turning the ball over as well? Like last season with so many new players that I actually don't even think are of big 12 caliber. I don't think it happens for them.
00:50:03
Speaker
Now at number 12, our consensus was West Virginia. Bill, why don't you go ahead with your player's perspective. First of all, Steve, when you talk about intriguing teams that you want to follow, I'm i'm going to put, and this may be a surprise, but I'm going to put the University of Houston Cougars at number one.
00:50:22
Speaker
With that said, I think this team could be interesting. They've got a brand new coach, Darren DeVries, from Drake. Drake is a great Missouri Valley team. that They play well every year. they they They make the tournament. However, West Virginia has zero starters back off semi-talented, but really disappointing team. I'll just conclude this by mentioning one player that that will absolutely have the biggest impact, I think, and that is DeVries' son, Talker, 6'7", swingman, guard forward, who was the best player at aforementioned Drake.
00:51:05
Speaker
And that he's, DeVries has obviously brought in a ton of players. he's a He's a really good coach, but yeah, I've got West Virginia 13. But i I do think they'll be intriguing to watch. Yeah, I agree with that. I think they're also another team I'm going to follow closely as well. Tom, what's your coach's view on West Virginia?
00:51:22
Speaker
It's going to be tough slitting for Coach DeVries. And I think Tucker is going to, I wouldn't say struggle, but the Big 12 is a different animal than the Missouri Valley Conference. It's even tougher when you come in as a new coach and you got to be able to roster and they got a great fan base, you know, so they'll, you know, they'll probably play a lot better at home than they will away, but I don't see them doing a whole lot this year. It's going to be tough.
00:51:52
Speaker
Yeah, I loved Drake, loved Coach DeVryze when he was there, bringing his son gives this team at least a chance when paired with Javon Small, who they got from Oki State. Their preseason adjusted efficiency margin is number 73 in the nation after game one, number 74 in offensive efficiency, and number 78 in defensive efficiency. The concern, as you guys had both highlighted, is do they have enough talent to win in year one?
00:52:18
Speaker
One player to watch in addition to whom you guys have mentioned is a kid by the name of Amani Hansberry, transfer from Illinois. Didn't play a lot as a freshman, but showed flashes. So this is another one of those teams that I'm going to, I've got some interest in following to see how they develop over the course of the year.
00:52:38
Speaker
Then we get to our bottom four, and we had ASU, then Utah, then Colorado, then Oakey State bringing up the rear. Big difference was I was highest on Utah at 12, and Bill was highest on Arizona State at 11. So let's just take these four as a group and quickly give some highlights. Bill, you've got any key points that you wanted to highlight with the four bottom feeders?
00:53:05
Speaker
well I'll mention ASU because I do have them finishing ahead of both TCU and West Virginia. They lost a ton of players as well. They were a small team last year. They're actually a ah really big team. They're huge this year. I'm only going to mention two players that they've got coming in, both five-star recruits. One is a 6'9 powerful named Jayden Quaintance.
00:53:31
Speaker
The other is their new point guard. He's 6'5", Jason San, and both of these guys ah were heavily, heavily recruited. And ah so they're going to be young, but there are a bunch of good players that that Hurley brought in in addition to these two. And so I think of the of the teams that are feeding at the bottom of the Big 12, ASU will be the best of the four. All right. How about you, Tom, for those last four?
00:53:59
Speaker
Last four I have Utah at the at the bottom ten new players three new assistants a new GM They do have ah Gabe Mattson. They brought in his brother as a as a transfer, but Just not enough talent In relation to the other other squads, Bill talked about Arizona State, you know, two big time recruits, but they, they got hammered in an exhibition by Duke. I think it was like 103 to 47. They barely beat Idaho State the other day, 55, 48. So Oklahoma State, Colorado, Colorado, 10 newcomers again.
00:54:34
Speaker
lose three players to the NBA draft. Oklahoma State with the new coach, Steve Lutz, who has some good teams at Charlotte west Western Kentucky. But like I said, with Darien DeVries, it's a tough conference to come in and then try to build a roster.
00:54:51
Speaker
There's there's no forgiveness. There's I don't know mercy. Yeah, so yeah Yeah, but I don't feel sorry for you. That's right. It's the no conference for old man, man, so None of the four have what it takes to challenge for the top Utah, Colorado, OSU just don't have the horses to compete. And for me, I had ASU 15th because I have zero confidence in Bobby Hurley as a coach.
National Championship Contenders: Top Picks
00:55:17
Speaker
I had Utah higher than you guys because I like Coach Smith and I like his style.
00:55:23
Speaker
with so much size again. And I think that's just going to end up being a weird matchup for all the teams is they just play differently than the rest of the team. So that's, that's really the only reason I have them a little bit higher.
00:55:37
Speaker
So now let's get to our new national top eight plus one national championship contenders for the 2425 season. Consensus top eight plus one we had number one, no surprise, Houston. Number two, Alabama. Number three, Kansas. Number four, Yukon. Number five, the Zags. Number six, Iowa State. Number seven, Duke. Number eight,
00:56:06
Speaker
Baylor and then number nine North Carolina We don't have much time So the differences in our consensus rankings are that all of Tom's teams made it in Bill you are higher on Auburn and soft on North Carolina and I was higher on Arizona and soft on Baylor So bill why don't you give your two-point reason for why North Carolina was not making your list?
00:56:30
Speaker
North Carolina, and like I said, I did a top 25, I had Carolina down at 14. North Carolina, I think, despite the fact that they've got as much talent on their roster as maybe anyone from five through 15, I think they are far, far, far in a way, the worst shooting team of the of the top teams.
00:56:58
Speaker
I think they're just a horrendous shooting team. I can't believe that they didn't bring in any, any shooters. And ah yeah, I just don't like Carolina this year. Yeah, understood. And for me, you know, on the Baylor front, even though we've got them pretty highly ranked, as I stated earlier, I don't think Baylor's defense is national championship caliber, but we shall see. So wow, that is it for our jam packed 31st and big 12 slash national top eight plus one episode of the no conference for open podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republic of football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas football.
00:57:49
Speaker
as the only basketball center podcast or at the gocogues.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way. We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account, No Conference for Old Men. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care, everyone.