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Mailbag for Week 9
95 Plays1 year ago
In this week's mailbag episode, Jeremiah and Aaron dig into the Cody Baker vs. Nouhou debate, try to assess the general mood around the team and give suggestions how to better close the gap with Liga MX.
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Transcript
Introduction and Sponsor
00:00:00
Speaker
Hey, this is Christian Roldan. And Jordan Morris from the Seattle Sounders Football Club. And you're listening to NOS Arietes. This episode of NOS Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of NOS Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, the Pacific Northwest.
Seattle Sounders' MLS Cup Victory
00:00:28
Speaker
A.O. Shen! Let's go! What a save by Fry! The Seattle Sounders have done it! MLS Cup win! Here come three years through the middle to crown it the vehicle! And now they truly can't stop the celebrations. It's the Sounders' MLS Cup! Niko Liddo leaves out!
Podcast Structure and Match Day Naming
00:01:23
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of NOS Adiatus. This is the mailbag episode for
00:01:35
Speaker
I, I blow this every single time. Are we calling this like match day eight? Are we calling it, are we talking about match day seven? I think that, uh, I said in the last episode, I think I said match day seven.
00:01:52
Speaker
Which doesn't mean that's how we should do it, but... Well, we'll call this mailbag, the mailbag for match day eight then. Yeah. Ahead of match day eight. Maybe that's the best way of saying it. Although technically it's match day nine in MLS, I guess. That's right. For the Sounders match day eight. Because we don't care about the rest of the league. We're catching up soon enough.
00:02:12
Speaker
Yeah, right, exactly.
Coach Schmetzer's Lineup Decisions
00:02:15
Speaker
But I'm Jeremiah Shannon. I'm joined by Aaron Campo for this mailbag episode. Do we want to just jump right into things? Let's do it. First question is from Nexus. I know everyone is tired of New Who Talk. I promise you, based on the Discord, not everyone is tired of New Who Talk. That's just a little aside for me.
00:02:35
Speaker
And we should have started Cody Rhetoric, but I was honestly confused why he didn't start. Schmetz has a long-standing reputation of playing the same guys that got the job done the week before, even if more people are available the next week. Even in playoffs, he's been resistant to changing a starting 11 that got a good win. Why didn't he do it here?
Player Roles: New Who and Cody Baker
00:02:52
Speaker
Well, I mean, I guess from a technical perspective, he did start the same lineup. True. It does feel a little bit like a loophole.
00:03:07
Speaker
Like he, he uses a premise that, well, we started, we're starting the same lineup than we did last week. And technically that's accurate. And that's the best kind of accurate, I believe is the saying, but yeah, I mean, if the team that beat Montreal five zero was to Cody Baker at left back, we can say this. Yeah. And I don't, I don't have a good, I don't really have a great,
00:03:36
Speaker
explanation other than he sees new who has his starter, which I, I don't know. I don't know. I don't have a good answer. Yeah. I, we said last week, Mark, when, uh, you know, Mark was here, I think both of us said that we thought this was new, whose job to lose. And I think some people interpreted that as saying that we were endorsing that position. And that's, that's not, that wasn't my, uh,
00:04:05
Speaker
That wasn't my intention. I just think that it's new job to
Defensive Strategies and Offensive Potential
00:04:08
Speaker
lose. I think he's going to have to do something to make Brian make that change. Yeah. I don't, you know, I don't know what it's going to be. I don't think knew who was played terribly this season. Um, he's been, you know, he's, he's, he's been his old self defensively. I think he's been great on that side of the ball. You kind of know where you're going to get from him. But I do think that if you have not been able to score at all, you don't have a win and then you win a game five, no.
00:04:34
Speaker
It then it stands to reason if you're going to stick with a hot hand, you're going to stick with the actual hot hand. And, you know, I don't think Cody Baker was the reason the Sounders won that game five nil, but I do think it's worth seeing if how much of a part of that he was. It'll be interesting.
Need for Aggressive Plays
00:04:50
Speaker
This like this week is also an interesting test because I guess I could see the idea of of Brian
00:05:01
Speaker
wanting to use the more defensive player, especially when they're on the road. And so I don't know, maybe, maybe there's an opening for Cody Baker to start at home against Vancouver. And then if they do this again, then, but you know, I would have the same token. I'm sure he's going to look at it and go, Oh, Vancouver is a really good offensive team. And I need my best, you know, I need my best defenders in there.
00:05:27
Speaker
but there was an interesting thread. There's a Twitter account called MLSstat.
00:05:35
Speaker
that dove into this a little bit. And I won't straight up read their tweets, but I will basically say that they found that the two players, when compared directly, have very similar profiles, broadly speaking, in terms of how effective they've been. But the one big difference is the passing radar. And for sure, Cody Baker is a more aggressive and more progressive passer. Yeah.
00:06:04
Speaker
And to me, that's one of the things the sounders are missing right now. Pretty much anywhere on the pitch, you can get somebody making more aggressive, more progressive passes, I think is a positive thing.
Inconsistencies and Tactical Concerns
00:06:15
Speaker
Right. And the other thing that Cody does better is that he passes sort of toward the
00:06:24
Speaker
center of the park, like his passes go into the center of the park as opposed to down the sideline. And the theory is that that is setting the sounders up more effectively to attack. Yeah. Yeah. To me, it's not necessarily an idea that is, it's not a theory that's been proven yet, but it's certainly something worth experimenting with. I think if the sounders had gone down and they'd gotten a gritty one no win,
00:06:53
Speaker
You know, maybe you're not as itchy to make a change, but I think there's evidence that at least one of the full backs, I think, needs to be a little more effective in the attack and whether that's new or Alex, you know, I think there's a more obvious place to upgrade, but I think you've got to get more from that position.
Struggles in Achieving Consistency
00:07:18
Speaker
The next one, sorry, did you have anything else to add? No. No. But do you want me to... Touch off there. Oh, I was just going to ask the question. Oh, no, it is your turn. I'm sorry. That's okay. We take one week off and we're just a lot of sorts. Right. This is from Joshua. Why are results so bad in Dallas? Is Montreal a fluke win? Were they just tired? This was a bottom team and we tied. Will we contend realistically for any trophy?
00:07:45
Speaker
I think there are a lot of reasons, a lot of questions, all fair ones. I think there are a lot of reasons. Sure. I think there are a lot of reasons historically that the Sounders have struggled in Dallas. It's hot and muggy there a lot of the year. Dallas has historically had some quite good teams, some tough match-ups as well, even when their teams haven't been strong.
00:08:10
Speaker
Yeah, none of that applied in this game. So the weather was wonderful, as nice as it gets in that part of the world. This is a really, really bad Dallas team that they, I think the thing, one of the things that was so frustrating about this game is that this is not like an FC Dallas team with their backs against the wall with nothing to lose that put in the performance of a lifetime. They still looked bad.
00:08:36
Speaker
Right. And, you know, the Sounders couldn't create squat. I don't think Montreal is a fluke in the sense that I think the Sounders are capable of playing that well. But you have to do it regularly for it to be any, you know, for it to be worth anything. I don't think they were tired. They really if they're tired in April. That's that's a big problem, I think it's fair to say.
00:09:06
Speaker
Um, so yeah, I, and I think the Sounders can contend for a trophy. Uh, I'm not super optimistic right now that they will, but I, but I think that the talent is there to do that. If they can figure out how to deploy it in a way that that can be effective. But if you, you know, ask me to fit 50 50 pick right now, I would not pick the steam to win a trophy. No. Yeah. I guess gun to my head. I probably would say that they're less likely to win a trophy than win one.
00:09:34
Speaker
But I wouldn't count them out at the same time and no one has a gun to my head. So you'll never actually hear me admit that. Right. Yeah. I mean, some very bad teams have won the US Open Cup. Historically bad teams, in fact, have certainly much worse teams than the Sounders are now have won trophies in MLS. So I would never say that it's remotely impossible, but
00:10:05
Speaker
you know, until they put together back to back or at least good performances. And I guess if they win this next game against Vancouver, that's you can start to kind of draw a long, a longer line of decent performances that you could actually say goes all the way back to the galaxy game as them playing better.
Effectiveness of Substitutions
00:10:25
Speaker
But yeah, they need to do that. They actually need to be Vancouver to be able to say that.
00:10:31
Speaker
Yeah, and that's tall order. This next one is from The List. Are you getting any sense that the bench players are getting frustrated with lack of playing time, especially with Brian's sub-patterns?
00:10:45
Speaker
Dave Clark actually dug into this a little bit in terms of not like this last game. I think you would have a hard time coming away with a positive feeling in the way that Brian is subbing using subs because it felt like this was a game that was
00:11:02
Speaker
kind of the worst example of him being stubborn about both lineup choices and subs. But this year overall he's actually been reasonably, he's been using subs at a basically league average rate and he's been giving those subs more time than a lot of teams give their subs. So I don't know that overall he's quite as
00:11:33
Speaker
Stubborn as it might seem. So I don't know that the bench, I have no idea, frankly, if the bench players are getting frustrated with their lack of playing time. It seems like there could be more players getting playing time, but I don't, I don't know. Like maybe is like a Danny Misofsky frustrated? Maybe I'm sure the players that aren't playing much are frustrated, but I don't know if that's.
00:11:56
Speaker
fair to put on Brian necessarily. I would be interested in looking at that data going back to previous years because I do think one big difference this year has been for a lot of the season, he's been missing some of those guys.
00:12:11
Speaker
It's, you know, I think, um, maybe more inclined to use subs when he doesn't have his guys. Yeah, exactly.
Coach Brian's Substitution Patterns
00:12:19
Speaker
Yeah. And I, I do think that the criticism there has been overblown because I think if you were to ask a fan of any team in the world,
00:12:27
Speaker
What is one of the things that annoys you about your coach? I guarantee you 95% of them are going to say, you never use the subs, he waits, too long to put in the subs. And that's not to say that that's not a fair criticism, right? Like, I think it's entirely possible that it's just one of those things that coaches are too conservative about. Like, coaches in the NFL punt way too often. Right. That was the exact same example. Right. I was going to use that exact same example.
00:12:49
Speaker
Yeah, there's there's it's entirely possible that it's a totally fair criticism that, you know, it's just kind of part of the mentality that coaches have that's a risk aversion thing. I don't know. But I don't think that Brian has been historically any worse or any different really than than most coaches. But that doesn't mean he couldn't be better, though. No.
Fan Expectations and Reactions
00:13:12
Speaker
And I do think that
00:13:14
Speaker
There are definitely games like this last one that stand out where it seems so obvious that it feels like there's a scripted sub decisions made beforehand or what have you. I would like to see that data, but not enough to actually do it myself. You'd like to be presented that data. Yeah, I would like to be presented that data, correct.
00:13:48
Speaker
This is from Ken W. He says, well, we hung five on CF Montreal a week ago, then went out to Frisco and couldn't find the back of the net. Who is the club currently and how should we feel going into the home match against the Whitecaps? Optimistic for the win, realistic we'll be lucky for a draw, fatalistic that we'll be holding on for dear life not to lose.
00:14:08
Speaker
I don't think that the Sounders are ever going to be in a situation where they're not in games. That's one of the things about this team. There's never been a point in this year where I thought they were out of a game. It's even down 2-0 against San Jose, I thought they were in that game. And they were. They came back to tie. I think, honestly, came pretty close to winning that game. So I don't think that they're going to get blown out very often.
00:14:37
Speaker
Their goals against numbers on the year are quite good. The defense has been fantastic. So I think they're in every game. It's just, are they in it to hang on to a nil-nil draw? Or are they actually capable of winning games? I don't know. So I'm not super worried that they're going to be holding on for dear life. I'm not optimistic that they're going to win, though. I don't know how anybody could be optimistic that this team is going to win.
00:15:04
Speaker
Right now. And that's not to say that. Like in the longer term, I think I'm relatively positive and optimistic about this team, but until they actually string some results together, no, I'm not going to go into expecting a whole lot. I went into the Dallas game expecting much more than I got. And then, you know, fat fat lot of good that did me. So I don't know. And I, you know, I don't know who this club is right now. It's frustrating because they showed how good they can be against Montreal. They really looked like they had put it together.
00:15:33
Speaker
And then the Dallas game was just, you know, right back to the old, the old way of playing that they've been frustrating us with all year. So yeah, I don't know. Well, let me if would you take this trade if they.
00:15:49
Speaker
played like they did against CF Montreal. And I don't mean winning 5-0, but just played that way at home and then had these sort of like frustrating, not necessarily, they're not all going to be 0-0 ties, but they're going to be these kind of cagey affairs on the road. Would you take that trade for the rest of the season? They're going to play aggressive, exciting soccer at home. And then it's going to be like cagey, frustrating stuff on the road.
00:16:14
Speaker
Yeah, I think I would. If you can't promise results, which I know is not really part of the deal here, I think so because I think this defense is good enough that at home, they should be able to perform well enough that they can be very aggressive. I think this team can afford to be a lot more aggressive than they are. But I also know that that's a difficult proposition for a coach going on the road, especially with as much parity as MLS.
00:16:43
Speaker
Yeah, I would take that trade because I think it's going to end up doing them a lot of good in the long run for sure.
Home vs Road Game Strategies
00:16:48
Speaker
But they've had games on the road where they came out and played aggressively. You know, they played pretty aggressively against the galaxy and LAFC. And that's the thing that's weird to me. Yeah. Is that it's like they have like everything clicked against Montreal, but it's not like they have obviously the last half hour, 45 minutes of the Dallas game.
00:17:09
Speaker
notwithstanding and then some of the other road games, like they do go into a shell and play a lot more conservatively. But it's not like they ever go out looking to sit back and play for a point, you know? No, I don't think they played. I don't think they were doing that against Dallas. I just thought that maybe in the second half, they started to they started to sort of fall into that trap. But I like they were trying to play for, you know, the for they were trying to play throughout. I mean, they had almost 60 percent possession, I think in the game.
00:17:40
Speaker
Yeah, but they were in the second half. In fact, they weren't being very, but just weren't being very aggressive with that possession. Yeah. Yeah. They're, they're a weird team. I mean, I think that who is this club currently is a good question. Yeah.
Fan Engagement and Morale Issues
00:17:54
Speaker
I think it's a good question. Yeah. I wish I knew. I'm sure Brian does as well.
00:17:59
Speaker
All right, two more. Next one is from Chico Flores. Last week, my 73-year-old dad, who has been going to games since 2009, finally threw in the towel. His birthday is this week, and he was all ready to buy tickets to the weekend's game. Following the Dallas game, he messaged me and said he's lost interest. Why would I travel to see them play? They look like a third-grade high school team. Disappointing. I don't think he is alone. How aware is the front office that the play on the field is starting to affect ticket sales?
00:18:27
Speaker
I would like to think on some level that the sounders are aware that the play is affecting the mood around the team. I suspect that they would look at ticket sales though and compare it to the early part of last year and say, it's kind of flat. It's not quite, and frankly, you can draw a line all the way back to
00:18:56
Speaker
Since COVID, right? And say, well, you know, we've never really recovered from COVID in terms of our attendance, but it's not, interest has not gone down as much as it might feel like it has gone down. And I think that's a fair observation. But it's also hard to deny that the mood around the team is just not good right now. And I don't know.
00:19:21
Speaker
You know, I think some of that is the front office is doing and ownership is doing and coaching staff is doing.
00:19:29
Speaker
But I don't know how much. I actually have a request out to the Sounders to talk to someone higher up in the organization about the mood around the team because there are a lot of anecdotal pieces that are starting to feel like they fit together as a bigger piece. There was the season ticket package situation.
00:19:53
Speaker
The way that Long Acres has been treated maybe fits into that. I think there's some general concern over this purchase of the rain and how that affects the budget for the sounders and that they haven't spent a whole lot of money on transfer fees outside of Pedro de la Vega.
00:20:12
Speaker
And you can start kind of drawing some connections there. So it's a relevant story. It's a relevant question. I don't have a great answer for you right now, but I can tell you that this is something that we're looking into and seeing if we can get a little bit more of a satisfying sense of how, at least how the front office sees this.
00:20:34
Speaker
Yeah, because we've had periods of soccer that were worse than this. For sure. The really bad, the dire days, I think, was what we called them back then. That would have been 2015, I think, where it was just teams full of kids grinding out results like this on the road for months at a time.
00:21:00
Speaker
you know, roster flux and just bad vibes all throughout the org. The start of 2016. This is if you if you think this is as bad as this 2016 was, man, I don't know what to tell you because it wasn't 2018 was also really bad. Yeah. 2018 may have been the worst it ever was in terms of them playing just really uninspiring soccer for
00:21:25
Speaker
I feel like that was one of the first times that we were openly saying things along the lines of, you can be bad, but you can't be bad and boring. Yeah.
Analyzing Ongoing Struggles
00:21:39
Speaker
Yeah. So it's been the on-field product has been this bad before. And I think, you know, part of it is that it's been bad in the same way now a few times. Yeah.
00:21:51
Speaker
You know, last season, the aggregate was pretty good, but there was just that long stretch of misery in the middle of the year. So I don't want to downplay that element of it, but I do think that it is also everything off the field as well. It's all the things you mentioned. It's, I feel like that it is just the, we've been talking about this as an inevitability on this show for years. As the league grows, the connection is lost. And I think that that is coming to fruition now.
00:22:18
Speaker
I think the Providence thing still is rubbing people the wrong way even a couple years later. So there's just all the vibes are bad. If the team is winning, if the team is playing well, all this stuff was present at the beginning of last season and at the run down the stretch last year when things turned around pretty well.
00:22:38
Speaker
Um, and it became less important because the team was winning. I think if the team can start winning again, the stuff's not going to go away. Um, but it becomes less important for sure, but they have to start winning or else it could really snowball pretty badly.
MLS Rules and Competitiveness
00:22:55
Speaker
Yep. All right. So this is the last question.
00:23:01
Speaker
It's from Smurf, and I'll remind everyone, these questions are sourced from our Discord. If you'd like to be a member of our Discord, and you just have to support Sound at Heart at the supporter level above, that's $80 a year.
00:23:18
Speaker
And it will get you an invite into the discord and you can. Bum around and look around and ask questions. And it's a lot of fun. I'll just say that. Uh, but this is coming from Smurf and it says, if you could change one or maybe two rules to make the league better, able to compete with the guy, make ease while maintaining the league's current goal of parody, what would you change?
00:23:40
Speaker
Yeah, we talked about this a little bit before the show, and I think we largely agree on broad strokes.
00:23:48
Speaker
just flat out make the salary cap a salary cap and that's it. There's no TAM, there's no DPs, there's no GAM. Maybe you could convince me that incentivizing some youth investment type carve outs makes sense. I would do away with transfer fees hitting the cap. I think you've got to figure out. I know that the concern there is well teams are just going to
00:24:16
Speaker
You know, set up the transfers in a way where the players make a ton of money that's off the books. So I think you have to set up some restrictions and guidelines around transfer fees, but, um, otherwise, yeah, just make the cap the cap and, and all the other extraneous stuff goes away because I think that.
00:24:34
Speaker
MLS for reasons that I understand, even if I don't agree with them, wants marquee players and they want a lot of the budget going to those players. I think that when you've got your best teams and they have all those marquee players healthy, they can run with
00:24:52
Speaker
You know, the better teams in Mexico, um, when they don't, or, you know, when the teams are a little too top heavy, it's, it's no comparison. Those teams are just better one through 23. So that that's, that's, that would be mine. Yeah. And I think one of the things that it's important to note here.
00:25:12
Speaker
is that MLS is competitive with Liget-Mekis probably from spots four through 18, right? It's where the differentiation is the top three or four teams in Liget-Mekis are
00:25:28
Speaker
are still a lot better than the top teams in MLS. And we're seeing that play out in CONCACAP Champions League. And, you know, there was this Caleb Porter, who I, you know, absolutely adore and love to quote, made a really astute observation when they lost to America 9-2 on aggregate. And he says, well, you know, they have 11 designated players on their team. And I don't know, I haven't actually looked to see if that's remotely accurate, but I'll
00:26:15
Speaker
probably make more than the top-paid players in League of Emechies, like the top 20 players in MLS, my guess, are making. And so it's not just the money that they're spending, it's how they're allowed to spend it. And the difference is that if Club America wants to go out and spend $50 million, they can spread that $50 million over however much of the roster they want. Whereas if Inter-Miami wants to spend $50 million, they really have to concentrate that on a specific part of the roster.
00:26:18
Speaker
will take matters word
00:26:42
Speaker
And in a way what you're calling for it is a throwback to the pre 2000 to the pre tam era when there was basically just.
00:26:50
Speaker
the budget and teams can spend it however they wanted, but that was really limited. And what's funny is that MLS could probably go back to that, but with so much more money in the overall budget, it would have a profound effect on the way teams are actually structured. So if you, you could have your three designated players, but if every team, let's just say every team had a $12 million or $15 million budget.
00:27:17
Speaker
outside of those designated players, the lead would look a lot different. It would. I mean, I personally would do it with designated players too, but... Sure. I'm just saying if you want to... I know they're not going to do that. Right. You could potentially keep that if you wanted. And I think that wouldn't change the overall... My point is that you could do that and it wouldn't change the overall spend that much.
00:27:37
Speaker
No. And it does kind of feel like they are a little bit trending in that direction by freeing things up a little bit, but I don't think they're ever going to get to a position where they want to allow teams to make the kind of like, they don't want to allow teams to, to give American players that don't have a lot of options outside of the league, the money that they would actually be worth on the free market. Like they don't. Yeah. Like MLS is part of it for sure.
00:28:04
Speaker
Yeah, it's a cost control league to a large degree. I get that they want to incentivize certain types of investment. I think that makes sense. I don't necessarily have a problem with their reasoning for a lot of these roster restrictions. They don't want teams going and signing 38-year-old guys who aren't needle movers. I get that to some degree.
00:28:33
Speaker
I think teams should just kind of be allowed to do whatever they want to do with their salary budgets because I think that's going to really benefit a team like the Sounders who maybe don't have the financial firepower to deal in a totally open world where there's no salary caps or anything. I know there are a lot of people who want to do a web salary caps entirely and I think that there's
00:28:57
Speaker
There's a case to be made for that approach, but the Sounders are not going to be a dominant team if
Salary Cap Structure Impact
00:29:02
Speaker
they do that. They're not going to be a team that can compete with LAFC or NYCFC or some of these other teams. But I do think that they're a smart enough organization that they could improve their standing and be back amongst the unquestioned elites in the league if they were able to spend that salary budget however they wanted to.
00:29:22
Speaker
Yeah. And I, one thing I, I feel compelled to point out is one of the reasons that TAM was created with so many restrictions as it, as it was, was the league didn't really trust.
00:29:34
Speaker
MLS front offices to be spending freely. They thought that if they just gave them $3 million of extra spending or whatever it was at the time, I don't think it was that much. But if they gave them a bunch of extra money to go out and spend that, they wouldn't spend it wisely. And that was, I think, a fair concern because there was a lot of MLS front offices in 2015 that weren't really professional outfits.
Evolution of MLS Infrastructure
00:29:57
Speaker
Maybe there was a GM and a coach
00:30:00
Speaker
And they basically did all the scouting and all the player recruitment and everything else. And that you would hear stories all the time about how certain teams were effectively GMed by random agents because the agents were the ones presenting the players, the same agents were always presenting the players to the team. And that's not a world where you want to give teams too much, like you want some approval process, right?
00:30:29
Speaker
But that's not the world MLS is anymore. I mean, say what you will about the front offices, but they're mostly all pretty professional outfits with, you know, technical directors and scouting directors and, you know, multiple layers of talent evaluation.
00:30:45
Speaker
heads of recruitment, salary cap analysts, you know, go down the roster, right? And I think you can, we're at the point where we can probably trust MLS teams to not just blatantly waste money the way that you maybe had to worry about 10 years ago.
00:31:00
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's fair. The level of maturity, I think, of just the infrastructure in the league has maybe improved faster than anything else. I think it's really night and day. And it'd be nice if teams were able to flex those muscles a little bit more than they are. Totally agree. Totally agree.
Closing and Community Engagement
00:31:18
Speaker
Well, that's our mailbag show. Thanks for listening.
00:31:25
Speaker
Like I said, if you want to get into this part of the discussion, I urge you to get onto our Discord. It's got, you know, we've got like 500 members in there now. So it's, it's pretty active. You can find conversations about everything under the sun, essentially, but especially sounders and quite a bit of rain conversation too. Should be said. But, uh, all that said, I'm Jeremiah Shan signing off for Aaron Campo and our producer, Lickit. This is Noah Sadietis and we will catch you next time.
00:32:52
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!