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Q&A with 2021 AFL Fantasy Runner-Up Kyle Holmes! | #PODPOD
98 Plays3 years ago
2021 AFL Fantasy Classic runner-up and two-time top 10 finisher, Kyle "Holmesey" Holmes joins the PODPOD to answer all of your burning pre-season questions!
Holmesy dishes out plenty of quality advice including what ruck duo to start, who he's looking at for M1 and M2, and we weasel out plenty of his starting picks!
Check out Kyle's Twitter - @Holmesyheroes - to follow the awesome Discord server and catch the latest AMA's as they happen!
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Members also gain access to advanced spreadsheets for draft season, CBA analysis, state league fantasy scores, kick-in data, a comprehensive draftee analysis for your rookie research and much, much more.
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Introduction
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of the Point of Difference AFL fantasy podcast. A different look at AFL fantasy classic brought to you by the keeper league pod. This episode we're doing a good old fashioned Q and A sesh going through plenty of listener questions with our special guest 2021 AFL fantasy classic runner-up and two time top 10 finisher, Carl Holmesy Holmes. I'm not doing it.
00:00:28
Speaker
POD POD
Building a Fantasy Community (Q&A)
00:00:44
Speaker
All right, welcome aboard to another episode of the Pod Pod. We've got Stado and Louis here, but we don't care about them. We've also got Dossi. We don't care about him either, because we have special guest, two-time hat wearer. It's Kyle Holmes-y. Holmes, mate, how are you going? Always very well. Thanks for having me. Super pumped to be on the Pod Pod for the first time in 2022.
00:01:07
Speaker
Absolutely, mate. It's great to have you on board. And you're doing your own little thing at the moment, though. You're already on the airwaves yourself. You've got a nice little discord set up for the AFL fantasy community. Do you want to walk us through that before we get into this Q&A show?
00:01:20
Speaker
Yeah, so basically just a mate of mine just wanted to sort of contribute to the community a little bit more. So we just set up this fantasy community discord server where we provide a little bit of content through AMAs. We have channels specific for news and players and all sorts of stuff. So it's flying at the moment, considering we only started just over a month ago. I think we got close to 350 members in there at the moment. So yeah, it's been unreal so far.
Surprise Player Picks and Predictions
00:01:49
Speaker
Absolutely man, it's a great resource and somehow a man that has managed to jump on there himself, the old Fossil Stado managed to access Discord. You enjoying the content over there, Stado?
00:02:01
Speaker
Yeah, it was actually quite enjoyable. Forgive me for those that were actually listening the other day when I was getting about 15 work calls during the Discord, mate, but great to be here. And I'm sure most of you have heard, and I just want to say that I have become the number one ticket holder of the Josh Daikos Fan Club after drafting him at Pig 61.
00:02:25
Speaker
in the keeper league, much to everyone's surprise, including myself to be fair. It was meant to be Nick, but that's A-OK. Got the gold pump up story today that he's going to spend the whole season on the wing, so he'll probably outscore Nick Daikos by about 20 points. God bless him. And it will be look like a very wise pick indeed.
00:02:50
Speaker
Yeah we've seen a few sea warner's getting drafted as well in the wrong sea warner in the caper leg so that's interesting pre-season. Louis how are you going mate?
Preseason Excitement and Player Selection Strategies
00:02:59
Speaker
Good thanks mate, keenest talk a little bit of fantasy it's all starting to get pretty real now going into obviously March when footy has a start so yeah chomping at the bit for it.
00:03:12
Speaker
Absolutely. But this episode, we are going to go through plenty of questions because it is that time of year where we're all wondering what the heck's going on. We're all thinking and we've got three great fantasy coaches with us, plus Dossie here to host. And I'll be throwing the questions to the good coaches way this episode. So you don't need to hear my answers. It's all about these guys. The first question is going to you, Holmsey. And this one comes from Alex.
00:03:35
Speaker
If you had to pick one out of Titchell, Steele and Miller, who would it be? He wants to answer that question. So three of the top dogs in AFL fantasy classic, a couple of them ticking over that $1 million mark. Titchell just edging close. Who do you have? Who do you have if you're picking one?
00:03:53
Speaker
Yeah, so first off, I'd just like to start by saying I don't have any of them in my side. But basically, if you are looking at any of those three, you basically need to be super comfortable in the role that they're going to play each week. Being such a high price tag, being a captain option, you can't have any risk of role or anything like that.
00:04:16
Speaker
I'd be locking in Steele personally. I just think he's the main man in that St Kilda midfield. Captain tackles his way to a good score each week. There's no doubt about it. He's going to be right there in the guts. If you look at Tom Mitchell with that little bit of talk of potential forward time, there's just a little bit there. He's still going to be good, but is he going to be
00:04:38
Speaker
as good a steal, I'm not too sure. And then you look at a Took Miller, who was named captain today as well, should be very good as well, but you would hope from a footy standpoint that the Gold Coast midfield kind of share the load a little bit more, and you have development from Raoul and Anderson and Feir Aeneidos and Flanders and all those sorts of guys, which will hopefully bring their scoring output up, and he might just drop a little bit, but you can't really begrudge any of those
Impact of Player Ownership and Trade Strategies
00:05:05
Speaker
picks. They're all big dogs for a reason.
00:05:08
Speaker
Gee, I wonder who's at M1 for home, so you'd not go on any of the big dogs. I have to wait for that reveal maybe later on in the show. I think Dossie, obviously those are the top three, so I think to split hair as you look at the fixture, and when you do look at the fixture, Steele's first five are just unbelievable. He's got Collingwood, Freo, Richmond, Hawthorne and Gold Coast Suns, so that's a player who priced at 121, could come out of the blocks at 130.
00:05:36
Speaker
Good work, Louis. Speaking of Louis, let's get you a question, mate. Now, some people have directly asked a homzier question here, but I'll come back to that one for sure for the great man later. This one's from Nick for you, Louis. How does ownership percentage impact your starting squad and also your trades throughout the season? If you're keen on a player with upside, but they have high ownership, are you more likely to want to go against them or keep the safety in numbers?
00:06:03
Speaker
Oh look it really depends on the player. So look I'll pluck one, it's not necessarily how I feel but let's say James Sicily and he's coming off an ACL. He's owned by 50% of the competition. Yes there's upside there, he's probably going to. He might push 85 fantasy points on average which is enough at his price.
00:06:22
Speaker
But you can go the other way and OK, maybe this guy is going to be a little bit underdone going into his first season of football in a couple of years. He's going to take a bit to take the pace up. Maybe he only goes 70 across the first six, seven, eight weeks. That's where you can use that ownership.
00:06:39
Speaker
against the competition and find an advantage. But in terms of whether or not it scares me off with starting players, it doesn't at all. Honestly it probably works the other way because this is much more a trading game than it is a starting fantasy team game. So when you are in line with the rest of the comp it becomes easier to find your points of difference during the season trading.
00:07:03
Speaker
Great answer. I think Holmes has got a question on trade strategy coming up, so he might touch on similar aspects. This one's from Jared for you, Stado. Captain strategy or strategies for your starting squad?
00:07:16
Speaker
are quite simple that once you've got your structure set up, you need to ensure that you've got two or three captaincy options. So the bottom line is we're in a new world where you're getting that rolling lockout.
00:07:33
Speaker
So you obviously always throw a bit of a risky one for your VC. So let's look at round one. At the moment, I've still got McRae and Dunkley in my team. So it's one of those boys, most likely McRae, that gets the VC.
00:07:51
Speaker
and then depending on how that goes and what the matchups are. So Brody Grundy is sitting in my squad so he's always a captain option and of course you know I love the 30 green dots but this is an important one with a rolling lockout. If you do have one that's red
00:08:10
Speaker
it gives you that loophole option. So if McCray goes and pops out, I've actually got Clayton Oliver in as well, so he might be a potential option to be the VC. But if they pop out a 125, I'm just banking that, start the season well.
00:08:28
Speaker
take those points, no risk of injury after that and lock it away. So I always find or want to have a certain amount of captain's options to start and as you're completing your team, hopefully you're just building more. But at the moment, I'll consider that I've got five potential depending on the match-ups. And I think that's really important that you've got that flexibility so you can actually pick the player that's going to score you the most points in any given week.
00:09:00
Speaker
Can't help but notice, Stado, that 29 green dots and one red dot is not Rule F-ing 1. Do you want to explain that? Yeah, that's Rule F-ing 1A, means I've got some points in the bank. But it's Rule F-ing 1, I'm really strong on that because of the cash generation. But there are some little points and times where you've got to say, I need some points in the bank.
00:09:28
Speaker
The preference is not to do it, but look, if you get a really good score from your VC, I think you've got to take it and not risk it away. Were you a looper last year for your high finish there, Holmesy? I mean, were you like consistent looper or just a couple of times?
00:09:43
Speaker
uh well yeah towards the end of the season and through the middle you're obviously going to have a red dot here and there that you can use but it also burns people with we saw last year with the late covid outs as well if you're trying to loop and then there's the laid out carnage and whatnot you could end up in a pretty sticky spot so high risk high reward i guess
00:10:02
Speaker
Absolutely. This one from Bernardo Fritters for you, Holmsey. Trade strategies from your top 10 finishes.
Trade Strategies in Uncertain Seasons
00:10:08
Speaker
What rounds did you finish off your mids and was this a priority to finish first?
00:10:14
Speaker
Yes, I suppose the difference between last year was the fact that we just had so many forced injuries throughout the year. So I didn't actually finish my midfield till quite late simply because of all the forced injuries, the amount of DPP that I had, I was just flinging players left, right and center. So it was all a little bit jumbled and not sort of complete per se. In terms of trading strategy, I think the rolling lockout and everything that comes with playing fantasy in 2022 means that you just need to be aggressive.
00:10:44
Speaker
I love Stado's model of his 3513 in terms of trying to pick your keepers, but you need to be pretty flexible and agile in realising when one is a keeper and one isn't a keeper. So like a Tom Phillips for example last season, we all picked him as an underpriced.
00:11:00
Speaker
keeper and a lot of us held him to the buy hoping that they would bounce back under that model but realizing from watching it and just trusting your gut almost trading him out early because he was no longer that keeper he was more of a failed mid-pricer allowed me to be aggressive and shoot up the ranks. Have you always been aggressive early early days because I reckon you know we talked about this last year when you're on our other show but you know
00:11:26
Speaker
I was trading early days just to fix up rookies which was such a stupid error and something I looked to correct this year but you were trading and going from these failures very very early and you know a lot of people might think to hold on because hey these guys are kind of trusted there's a reason we picked him etc but it's hard to jump off but do you often have you done this before and has it worked before?
00:11:50
Speaker
I suppose like listening to Selby, he sums it up pretty well. So I'll use you for example, Dossie, like last year, I think you had a Harry Sharp, right? And then when he was dropped, you traded a Harry Sharp to the next 190K or 170K rookie off the bat. And that rookie has no more guarantee of playing consistent games than Harry Sharp that was just dropped, right?
00:12:11
Speaker
Yeah, there is merit in having your 30 green dots and whatnot, but it's obviously you need to fix your team elsewhere as well. So that's where the game theory comes into it. And it's not simply a case of just shifting those red dots to a potential green dot for another week when they could just come back in the next round.
00:12:29
Speaker
Absolutely, yeah. And there's no hard and fast rule to
Player Potential and Value Debates (Q&A)
00:12:33
Speaker
Dossie. So I know there's that great example of Tom Phillips last year, but we only have to go the year before and Josh Dunkley after seven rounds was averaging 70 and there were a whole heap of people that jumped off.
00:12:48
Speaker
and then it just switched and off he went and averaged something like 112 or 13 for the remainder of the season. So it's actually picking your marks. Yeah, that's a good point as well. Louis, this one from Miller Time.
00:13:04
Speaker
Mr. Number 5 from a couple of years ago, is anyone else genuinely concerned Heaney is going to burn them? That's an interesting question. I think a lot of people are super high on Heaney given he's fairly under priced regardless of what role he plays. And there's also talk of him playing in the midfield. But are you one that is concerned, Louis?
00:13:25
Speaker
No, well I suppose the answer is it's less and less each week. His ownership just keeps on climbing amongst good coaches. They've all clued into the fact that the mid-time does seem real. Mills has a good chance not to play around one, so there's certainly a hole there for him.
00:13:41
Speaker
and at the end of the day he's someone who sat in my team most of the pre-season just based off the fact that he was 14 points under priced as a forward which he's played for the last six years whereas if there's any inkling of you know 25% 30% midfield time and I think you'll get more than that then there's only points added on top of that and once you get sort of 12 points above a starting price that's when you when you can have a successful pick I think.
00:14:06
Speaker
Perfectly said, mate, you breezed through that one. Why don't we give you another one? This one from Lauren Simpkin versus Brayshore. Yeah, good question. They're both up and comers. Young guys have shown a bit of fantasy pedigree. There's a very long list of midfielders at North Melbourne and they're not going to be a very good side this year.
00:14:30
Speaker
and Simpkin does appear to be probably the number one tag target if not number two just behind LDU but he might be a little bit more difficult to tag given he's a bit more inside whereas at Freo the main guy probably is now Andrew Brayshore so if we're looking at a 60k gap what's that equate to about five to eight points or so?
00:14:56
Speaker
I'd probably just lean towards Simpkin just because of the value you're getting as a starting pick. There's still a few little question marks over Bracia and how we can deal with that tag, as with Simpkin as well, but in terms of a starting pick, I'm probably on Simpkin just, but I'd be keen to see what Holmsey thinks about that.
00:15:16
Speaker
Yeah, to be honest, you summed it up pretty well. That's the main concern that I have with Brayshaw, just with a few of the games I saw last year of him being tagged out of it. But also on the flip side, Simpkin was tagged out pretty heavily in one of the games in the back end last year too.
00:15:34
Speaker
It's interesting, I think you summed it up pretty well when you said that North aren't going to be that good this year, so you would think that not a lot of teams would go in and tag, but it still has to be weighed up either way. At the end of the day, that price difference, I think, gets it over the line, considering they both likely will average pretty similar at the back end. I know Stado's big on Brayshore, but I don't see any reason why Simcon can't elevate to that 105 to 110 mark also.
00:16:03
Speaker
Hey, Stado, this one coming in for you from Lauren as well. Your thoughts on Zach Bailey. News today coming out that it's Rainer and Bailey getting all that mid-time at the Lions. They're moving Neil to a forward flank or something, Zorko to a half back. It's Zach Bailey season. But in all seriousness, you've got basically him. He's priced less, you know, four points less than Isaac Heaney. Is there any chance you could
00:16:31
Speaker
go like a Zach Bailey for that midfield breakout. I probably don't see him as that top uber premium scorer, but he might average enough for you to pick him at that price.
00:16:42
Speaker
Yeah, it's interesting today that they've gone to the press and saying their best defensive midfielder is moving out of the midfield and then their Brownlow medalist and best inside midfielder is moving out of the midfield, which is interesting. So Jared Lyons and Lachie Neal out and Zach Bailey and the person that couldn't run previously in. So yeah, it's an interesting call.
00:17:12
Speaker
I don't really understand the theory. There must be something about building the expectations or creating a bit of positive vibe in our group. And, you know, there's a whole group. We're going to give something different in there. And I've got no doubt that I'll change a little bit, but I think it may be extreme. But I've got a question for Holmes later on about that.
00:17:39
Speaker
Zach Bailey, I really like. As a football player, I think he is potential to be the most talented player on that list. Whether he is best football is in the midfield or whether it's a mixture of mid forward because he can create scoreboard pressure. And there's not a lot of players that have that unique skill.
00:18:08
Speaker
So if I was to say, if you got a good midfield, how would I best use Zach Bailey as a coach? It would be as a very creative half forward with little dashes in the midfield. Do I like him? Absolutely. But I'm more reliant on
00:18:28
Speaker
draft options for him just yet but the future is very bright so in a keeper I reckon he should be rated extremely highly.
00:18:40
Speaker
I think the hard thing is that at the exact same price as well as Zach Budders who there's also messaging that he's going into the midfield and we've kind of seen some pretty explosive disposal games when he does get a chance and it's been kind of more limited. I think we have seen Bailey get a decent shot in the midfield last year and the scoring wasn't really that explosive.
00:18:59
Speaker
I think you could even go down again, Doss. You've got Jade Gresham who's a very similar player. I think we're 120k less than that too. So it's one to keep in mind if you're keen on that type of player, I suppose. Holmesy from Craig. Holmes can only play a couple of games. Remains to be seen. I'm not on him.
00:19:20
Speaker
from Craig Holmes. Craig wants to know your updated thoughts on starting a Proust at R3 with a combo of a Grundy and a Darcy Rob Marshall, that sort of thing. So what do you think of having Proust as your bench cover at that price?
00:19:35
Speaker
It's been in my mind this whole pre-season about how we're going to tackle this. And to be honest, I'm not going to rule anything out until the round one teams drop. And we know whether or not we've got any viable lower price rookies for that R3 spot. Obviously, if we have someone that is capable of putting up a 50 plus average, they're going to sit there over at Prus.
00:19:56
Speaker
However, it is going to absolutely terrify me to go to premium rocks with no cover throughout this COVID season, knowing that a potential donut could happen at any moment. Fantasy is stressful enough as it is without that. So wait for the round one teams, but I'm definitely not ruling it out just yet.
00:20:15
Speaker
Do you reckon Craig didn't include Gorn as an R2 option just to get under your skin a bit there, Holmesy? I know you're a big fan of the Grundy Gorn combo. Well, he wouldn't be at R2, does he? He'd be at R1. He's the most expensive ruffman. Too great. Too shy.
00:20:35
Speaker
Righto mate, alright. This one from Sammy.
Position-Specific Player Evaluations
00:20:39
Speaker
Thoughts on Liam Henry with the chat of him playing a wing at 317k, priced at 38, Louis. I'm pretty sure he had pretty good junior numbers, but there's been a few guys who have been spoken about being on that wing for the Dockers. At 317k it's probably a little bit expensive for me for someone I just haven't seen enough of at AFL level.
00:21:04
Speaker
Um, so no, for me, I'd rule it out, I think. All right. Question for all of us. What under five percenters are you surprised are five percenters? So what point of difference players that are owned by under five percent of the comp, are you surprised are under five percent? This is probably just going to be someone who's sitting in your team that's under five percent because you're that keen on them. You got one for a stato?
00:21:30
Speaker
I've got two in my midfield that I'm expecting to be keepers that are under 5%. Josh Kelly. So he's sitting at a price of 104 and I'm probably expecting between 108 and 112 around that mark.
00:21:52
Speaker
I think he's got a fair bit of upside. I remember he had an interrupted pre-season last year, started in the forward line, actually got forward status. That's how much he was playing there. But as soon as he got fit enough, he was moved to the midfield and still averaged 104. And Adam Chera, but you've all heard me bang on about Adam Chera for a long, long time.
00:22:17
Speaker
We know that you are representing the Pod Pod very well this pre-season with your team, Stado. We've got a lot of pods in there. What about you, Holmsey and Louis? Got any names for us, you first, Holmsey? Well, like Stado, I've got Josh Kelly in my team and I've got Simpkin as well currently. Like I know Louis is, I'm pretty bullish on his output for 2022. I haven't looked at his ownership percentage, but when I first got on him, I think he was about 1%.
00:22:45
Speaker
There you go. Is Kelly that M1? Not M1, all right. We'll find out. Louis, what about you, mate? Any names to throw at us under 5%? Look, he's just gone over 5% just because I think the traders talked about him a bit on the recent podcast. But George Hewitt was around abouts there, whereas we've had plenty of messaging on what that role is going to be. And another one I'm pretty surprised about is
00:23:11
Speaker
James Cetus, who's a rookie, is only 4.5% of all teams. So he's someone who, we talked about it last week on the rookie podcast, who should come in and make an immediate impact if named. So I'm a little bit surprised he's not even to throw away sort of M10 on people's benches. Hey Stado, Zach wants to know your thoughts on Trelure as a F2 or are there better options?
00:23:39
Speaker
Oh, look, he's got the scoring pedigree, hasn't he? I'm just going Josh Dunkley at the moment, but I obviously want to see the practice games and the real stuff before I make the final decision. But, look, Treloar is a bit of
00:23:58
Speaker
There's a bit of value there, but look, to be honest, I can't get rid of that salmon vision in my brain. So I know that he's got the soft tissue threat, so that sort of lingers a little bit. But let's face facts, a bit like Josh Dunkley had an interrupted pre-season, he was slow, he was playing
00:24:23
Speaker
not fantastic roles to start the season, so therefore he's underpriced. So him being a F2, there's no doubt it's a worthwhile punt because we know his scoring pedigree. But I will say I've got two in there at the moment. I still have that too many mouths to feed issue with the Bulldogs and want to see how they're playing.
00:24:51
Speaker
Just a little stat on Adam Trelauter, I think between rounds 3 and 9 he actually went at an average of 109. So he certainly still got the scoring capability but all the points that Stata raised, all very valid.
00:25:06
Speaker
Good one, Lew. Now, I don't know if you've read the article today. There's a lot of waves around the Collingwood players in terms of their midfield rotation. Did you get a chance to have a look at that one, Holmsey? Because this question's about the Piers midfield, so Andy wants to know, are we convinced Maynard will roll through the midfield? Now, this was a day ago, so probably the article only dropped today, I think. But I actually haven't had a chance. So a quick recap on the article, and if you'd still, if you'd be choosing Maynard based off it.
00:25:34
Speaker
Oh yeah, so it was a very interesting article. They basically outlined four different types of midfielders that they would like to have go through there. Not players, but like explosive, endurance, whatever. And then they threw up a number of names and who might go through there. And Adams was touted to spend a little bit more time forward to protect him a little bit. I'll just bring it back to, I have
00:25:58
Speaker
It's probably the number one rule for fantasy is that I need to do the eye test on everything. I tend to not believe a single word that comes out from these AFL articles. They're obviously all written in a way that presents bias to promote whatever they're trying to promote. So until I actually see that Collingwood midfield in the preseason, even then I'm not going to be entirely convinced. If it is a risky option that I'm looking at, I'll tend to trade them in in round two or three once I've actually seen it round one.
00:26:27
Speaker
Yeah, you're very much not a fan of those 600-ish K guys are you as well? I just get that feeling off your homes, unless you are 100%, they aren't getting in your team. There's no chance. Well, they just, they tend to burn more often than not. And every single preseason, everyone just can't poke a single hole in them. They're all going to go where they want. They're all going to improve. And then it just never seems to happen other than the barf you. So you just, just need to be cautious. That's all.
00:26:59
Speaker
I said you need to pick the right ones. That was it. You can move on.
00:27:07
Speaker
Ben wants to know then for Louis, is Titch a viable option at M1? And will you have any FOMO with not selecting steel? It sounds like a few of the, well, a couple of the top coaches here aren't picking steel to start with, going with a bit of a different route. But Louis, what about you, mate? And is Titch that option for M1 if you're not going to go steel?
00:27:28
Speaker
I think he can be. I think there's a few more question marks over Titch than there is still. So I certainly won't have FOMO over not starting still because he will be in my squad. But in terms of Titch, I think he went at 129 or something in the second half of the season after a little bit of a slow start.
00:27:46
Speaker
He's fully fit, hasn't missed the training session. Really, he should pick up where he left off. I do see him as that 116 averaging player. The only question marks I'd like to have answered is how solidified is that role with the new coach? Obviously, Sam Mitchell is going to come in. There's a honeymoon period that he's got where he can basically, he can throw the magnets around. He can try some different things. Losses really aren't going to matter. It's a little bit like North Melbourne.
00:28:15
Speaker
probably two years ago where they just tried a few things, tried players in different roles and the losses didn't matter as much as them improving as a team. So in terms of a viable option at M1 though, I think it's brave to go against Titch as well. So I've still got my tickets on him.
00:28:34
Speaker
Yeah I think Xavier Ellis actually sums it up quite well on the Moreira's Magic podcast with his footy insight when he says that what purpose does it serve the rebuilding Hawks for Tom Mitchell to be their best player? Like he is their best player but for them to start pushing up rebuilding and then building towards another premiership they need their younger guys coming through.
00:28:54
Speaker
So he's always going to be a very good option because he's a pig and he's just going to attract the ball no matter what. It's just whether he has that 100% midfield rotation locked in or whether he plays more of a role elsewhere and then that's where you can build the argument to kind of go against him.
00:29:10
Speaker
It's a bad comparison because one player I'm not a fan of his game and the other player I absolutely love but look at Jack Zebel and his role how it transformed for North Melbourne when they hit that rebuilding period he was straight out of the midfield and into a new role so I can I can understand that logic and it'll be interesting where to say I just think he's just too good inside that Sam Mitchell the competitive edge
00:29:33
Speaker
Sam Mitchell's had over the years. He'll want to get a couple of dubs and that'll result in Titre going straight back in there. And you've changed. A better example. A better example would be Travis spoke I think for Port a couple of years ago was shipped off to the half forward line in favor of some of the younger blokes that Port Adelaide. Obviously that didn't work out as well and he made his way back there, but even this year Pendle was going to a half back flank.
00:29:58
Speaker
Very similar. We'll just see if it happens, though. Hey, that's right. We can't believe we can't believe the news until it happens. Isn't that right? That's right. All right. This this question was tailor made for Stado. It's just come up perfectly in time. But I'm going to skip him. Holmes, thoughts on Cherra.
00:30:15
Speaker
Yeah, I'd love for Stado to sell me a little bit more. Obviously, watching a lot of Frio over the years, he's clearly a gun and I think his fantasy numbers would have been a lot better in his first and second seasons if he wasn't being played as a defender. As soon as he obviously went into that midfield role, he really did break out and show potential.
00:30:37
Speaker
It's interesting going to Carlton, fantasy scorers at Carlton just don't go well unless you're Sam Walsh. Zach Williams was touted, everyone could not see how he wasn't going to go 1-0-5 last year and goes to Carlton and was terrible so. Chair eyes 10 times the player Zach Williams is, I have no doubt he's going to improve and go a lot better but from an 87 price point stator you'd need him to go what, 1-0-3 plus and it's a fair amount of growth.
00:31:07
Speaker
Yeah, so I'm looking at just over a tonne, so I hopefully tap in that 105. But look, at the end of the day, he's always been a better fantasy player than Braeshaw, so his junior numbers were better than Braeshaw.
00:31:23
Speaker
his run home for the last five with Freo when it was opening up a little bit more was actually better, and we're only talking marginally, but his last five he averaged 111. His junior career is about 113. It's the type of player he's going to be. He's that perfect mix of in and out, which is exactly what Colton Football need. So if I was doing the list management for Colton Football Club,
00:31:49
Speaker
I'll be patting myself on the back. So there were two things they needed. They needed that two-way defensive style midfielder insider, which they got in George Hewitt. And they needed that the number two sort of Sam Walsh that was all of a sudden they have two or three people they've got to worry about. And that's when you create scoring opportunities. Because Sam Walsh has got that tag of probably being the best
00:32:19
Speaker
at Carlton Football Club. He, if anyone's going to be tagged, it'll be Walsh first and Cherra will just have that beautiful run where you can make the most out of the footy. So you'll get tagged for the first month though.
00:32:35
Speaker
No, they'll go Crips. He's actually looking pretty good, by the way. So I know Crippa's had a couple of bad years and I think he's planned it wrong. The really weird thing is they trimmed him down to become a runner in 2020 when they shortened the quarters.
00:32:53
Speaker
They made him bulky and strong to get back into the inside bull that he was originally when they actually brought in the stand rule which made the game quicker and more for runners. So they've done it reverse two years on the tripe
00:33:10
Speaker
and he's been nursing the back issue, et cetera. So all of a sudden, he's got a clean run in it. I think you're going to see the bull back. So I'm not expecting the 110, which I think everyone thought. He's got a core role, and he's probably a 95 to 102 averaging player. Sounds like Stado is going to be having Hewitt, Cherro, Walsh when he's fit and back, probably Crips and his team this year. No, I won't have Walsh.
00:33:40
Speaker
No, I've got Paddy down. He's actually sitting in M5. I moved out Sarong and put in Paddy down. All right, let's move on. This one from Joku. Could you start, steal and teach at M12 or get better value at M2? I think we've pretty much covered this, Holmsey. You reckon better value up?
00:34:04
Speaker
Yeah, I think if you're spending up that much in those two positions, you're going to be spending down somewhere else a little bit too much. I think you could probably find better value elsewhere and kind of spread your spend across multiple lines and then hopefully either get a rookie off the ground or get someone up to a better scorer.
00:34:23
Speaker
Another one for you then, Homsey from Daniel Short versus Dawson for D3 Short with Houliou or Dawson with the possible mid-time. Price rolling upside, he likes both, but who do you pick out of those two?
00:34:37
Speaker
Or either short has spent a little bit time in my side this preseason However, he's one of those guys that aren't going to burn you a little bit like all these premium defenders They're always going to average that sort of flat flat 90 to 95 whatever it is They're not going to come out and and go 150 where their sky weather price kind of skyrockets and you're chasing so
00:34:59
Speaker
Generally, they're seen as upgrade targets throughout the year, so I probably wouldn't be starting either of them, to be honest, considering I'm a little bit hotter on Lloyd and Whitfield. But in saying that, Dawson probably does have more upside, per se. We've spoken about this, Dossie, though. I'm still not sure how Dawson fits into that Adelaide side and the fact that he's gone from high-scoring Sydney to bottom dwellers Adelaide. I just don't think it's a war cup that he's just going to average 95 to 100 like everyone thinks.
00:35:29
Speaker
I see what you mean, though, in the extra kind of growth potential, though, because Short had a pretty bloody good role last year. And I know who he's going out, but he already had a crap load of the kick ins, et cetera. So he's just going to have to lift it up another gear this year, which could happen. But you probably see the upside with Dawson a bit easy with that mid time.
00:35:47
Speaker
This is a caper league question and we're going to throw it to Louie because he's he's all of a sudden he's done he's done a caper now he's in a caper league and he's doing some mock drafts. Who do you cut for your season two out of Bianco or Brody who would you prefer to have long term Louie? Will Brody. I'd rather keep Bianco I don't think Will Brody will be on a list for long.
00:36:11
Speaker
That's rough. Poor brides. When you've got Johnson and Erasmus not getting games because they're the first year. So yeah, they need a bit of size in there, but you won't be able to honour the Tuck for much longer either when you look at it. So where's Tucky going to play when all these gun midfielders mature?
00:36:34
Speaker
Yeah, that's a good point. It's probably one season wonder. They do need it this year though. That's for sure. Need those big bodies. Uh, Adams and Simpkin, Stado, we've kind of mentioned maybe that Collingwood article about Adams floating a bit more forward. You might not be canning him, but I mean, lots of people talking about Simpkin. We've got Holmes, he and Louis thoughts. They're pretty keen. What about you on Simpkin and Adams for that matter, just in case you're okay.
00:36:58
Speaker
Yeah, I love Adams, but he's a high-risk reward player. I don't know how many seasons he's played a full year. It wouldn't be too many. But he is looking fit and strong. But as we say, there is the potential. Let's see the practice games first. There's the potential that he could
00:37:17
Speaker
play a bit of different roles to protect him. So they're obviously realising that the bash and crash, even though he's good at it, is the reason why he does get some injuries. I think he's 28 now, and there's no doubt there's some players as their age, if they've been that sort of strong inside players, that it does catch up with them.
00:37:39
Speaker
Simpkin I really like, but the points that Louis made before are so true that at the end of the day he's going to be the one that gets attention. But I think he's going to have some high ceiling games this year. But I think it's going to be you're going to get some 1.30s, but you're going to get some 60s here and there too.
00:38:03
Speaker
Brady's asked what's your strategy with the rocks homesy, but then Ben's come in and answered. He's gone and Grundy I'll save you the trouble. Is this correct? He's still gone and Grundy go on the double primos or should I say? Yeah, gone and Grundy. That's right. Gorns that are R1, isn't he?
00:38:18
Speaker
Yeah, well, we do have a specific rock channel in our Discord and I do like to just go in there every single day and just hashtag Gorn Grundy just so everyone knows where we're sitting. So that's where we're at at the moment. I believe that I'm going on the Traders podcast next week to talk all things rock. So I can't wait to get absolutely roasted, but we'll see how it all plays out.
00:38:40
Speaker
Mate, you're everywhere. You're all over the shop. You're the man of the moment at the moment on the podcasting scene. This one from Connor. I 100% agree with him, though. Having the set and forget, to me, is the best model for the rucks. So whenever any of us try that, we think we've got a cheap... Sorry? Absolutely. But you're not going the gorn and grunty, though. You're going a different way.
00:39:07
Speaker
I'm going Darren Burgess. Just on that stage, I listened to a podcast today, the plus six podcast where Pete interviewed one of the journos out of Adelaide and he reckons he's been talking to Matthew Nicks a fair bit and they really rate what Strawn's doing down there and they want to get games into him similar to the way that they're going to get games in the haze. So what do you think about that?
00:39:37
Speaker
Oh, I'm gonna start crime, but again, it's just people talking in the media, isn't it? Yeah, Coles just said he doesn't believe anything in the pre-season, and he's bought it. He's bought this. He's just trying to throw a bit of shade on Stato. I'm just, alright. Get off my boy roll. I'm just waiting till round five, which is my point, when he's dropped, and then what are you gonna do? Yeah. Yeah.
00:39:59
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. Well, I hope it's not the case. I'm not expecting it to be. I don't think it's a smart move for the coach to be doing those type of things either, unless his form's poor. But let's wait and see what the preseason games. But if he's like I'm expecting him to be, he's the right one to hop on. The same with you. What happens if Gawney's actually in the forward line for 40% of the game?
00:40:25
Speaker
Yeah well then obviously I'll have to read just and see what happens but obviously doing my research and what I've seen in games up until this point there's nothing in my head that suggests that it will be spending 80% forward time like Dossie keeps saying to throwing out there all the time. I said on the rare occasion when they're up by 100 points against North
00:40:46
Speaker
then they will give Obey Jackson 80% of the CBA's. That's all I said. So if they're up by 100 points over a side and Gorn sitting forward, has he got eight or nine goals?
00:41:01
Speaker
But I will say that I think there's really only five to consider this year and they've all got some former question marks about them outside Grundy.
00:41:17
Speaker
Yeah still pro, so I was just going to say there's something a bit weird about Kieran Strawn, I remember sitting next to him in a pub once and no gravy on his snitty, just preferred a lemon wedge, I just thought I had that. Quite strange, I couldn't pick him based off of that.
00:41:35
Speaker
That's some insight there for our fantasy side. You don't get selected with a lemon wedge. Connor, what is your D5 and F5 looking like and how many sub 300K players are you starting as of now? Do we want to quickly look through our D5s and F5s and let him know? Let's go through. Hamzi here, you got D5, F5. Who's Hamzi?
00:42:02
Speaker
Uh, Holmzy, Holmzy, sorry mate. John Holmzy is another two time top 10 finishing coach. Why is it Holmzy Heroes by the way, not Holmzy's Heroes? Because Holmzy's Heroes was taken, unfortunately. Who's got the higher top 10 average between you and Holmzy? Oh, I'm not too sure, but the one thing we both have is that it's more than Stado, so. Oh, so black.
00:42:31
Speaker
Point taken. I do have a 12 and a 13 but they're still not single digits so we'll move on. So where were we going? D5 or D6? I've got Wayne Miller and Will Phillips at the moment. Don't at me. At D5 I've got Miller and at F5 I've got Kurno.
00:43:01
Speaker
Yeah, just playing around today. So the first day these guys have been in is just finding different forms. But I've got Noah Ainsworth at D5. And I've got Will Phillips.
00:43:17
Speaker
And I have Chesa at d5 and then Richelli at f5. Basically just rookie placeholders, higher ones, so that hopefully when round one are named, I can go down to them without having to change too much. Perfect. And Ditto the same here, depending on who gets named.
00:43:40
Speaker
And this one from Hayden, great name. If you had the ability of foresight on one player in each position that you associate with high risk, high reward, who would they be? Defender, Combsy, what's a defender? It's got to be Aaron Hall. He can win you the comp, but he can also ping a hammy and be done so. He's already done it. Louis, mid. Look off the top of my head, Matt Rau. Stado, forward.
00:44:10
Speaker
Zach Budders could have a massive ceiling, but could just go into one contest a little bit too hard and fall into three bits. And Perus is the obvious candidate for that ruck spot, the ultimate risk reward with their cash gen that he could produce. Well, that's all the questions I had. Was there any more that you guys saw on the Twitter sphere? Or has that got through them all? I think we managed to. But what I wanted to do to finish off,
00:44:36
Speaker
You guys are all at the top of your level, top of your game in the coaching AFL fantasy.
Evolving Coaching Strategies and Competitive Landscape
00:44:42
Speaker
Do you guys have a question for each other? Some have done it a few more times than others, but anyway, that's okay. Holmesy, have you got a question for the crew here before we head off? Yeah, I'll throw to Stado. So 2018 obviously, your big year, finishing his third, right?
00:45:02
Speaker
What do you think you've done differently over the last few years to not be chasing that top 100 again or seriously competing for the top prize?
00:45:15
Speaker
Yeah, speaking to DOS mainly, I would say is the reason. No, no. No, it's, look, you need to have good strategy, but you also need to have a bit of luck. And it's fair to say after those two years, 17, 18, which were both hat years,
00:45:34
Speaker
I haven't had the luck and probably there's a lot more noise, so there's more interference. So what I mean by that is I used to do all my research. There'd be the Traders, there'd be Futti Rhino podcasts.
00:45:55
Speaker
and my stuff on the draft doctors. And it would be basically all that I would hear. So you get some information, but now you have a lot of noise. And unfortunately, if you listen to all the noise, sometimes when it's pointed in the wrong direction, because everyone has opinions, it can sway your thoughts. So I think I mentioned
00:46:22
Speaker
Might've been this one or with a chat with you guys about Isaac coming. Hot on him for three years, had done the research. I was just waiting for the right time and just listened to a bit of noise about him in a negative sense and decided not to go that way. So all of a sudden, that's a season defining pick. Two or three of those, I told you I actually,
00:46:49
Speaker
brought in our good friend Atchalong who's now made his way over to Fremantle instead, but three picks just put me on the back foot last year. So this is why do your research.
00:47:05
Speaker
hear all the stuff, but listen to the important stuff. So pick and choose who you take details. So I think everyone has bias. And when you listen to bias or listen to other people's bias and let it impact the decision making process, that's when you can get in trouble.
00:47:29
Speaker
Looking at it the other way too, you see all this information out there. There's plenty of people providing advice. Lots and lots of different podcasts where you can get across all these types of players. And what that's actually done is certainly in the last three years I've noticed is the standard of coach has just gone up. So as the competition gets better, it's going to be more and more competitive, which can be harder to sort of pick your gaps in rankings.
00:47:56
Speaker
Louis, you've got the mic, mate. Do you want to ask Combsy something before he leaves us for a bit? Yeah, I will. So I am... Do you think Josh Dunkley and Adam Trelora top six forwards?
00:48:12
Speaker
It's so tough. I think by average, 100%, they'll both be top six forward by the end of the year. It's whether both of them are going to put full seasons together and provide that top six overall points. I think it's tough to start both of them. I'm not starting both of them at the moment because here you go, Dusty. My M1 is Jack McRae and I'm trying not to load up too much
00:48:36
Speaker
with the same team, but there's definitely merit in starting both of them. I had trouble last year actually through that time that you spoke about rounds three to nine when he wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he was still getting the job done and he was cheap, but he just worries me with that injury history. I just keep coming back to that grand final and it's not good to just cherry pick one game, but
00:49:00
Speaker
I don't see Trelore as that accumulator that he was at Collingwood anymore. They don't need that type of player, they just need him to go in, just be explosive for a little bit, kick some goals from that half forward line and just provide something different. They've got McCray, they've got Libba, they've got those guys in there doing the stuff that he used to do and I just don't see him
00:49:24
Speaker
Being that one whatever it is five guy that you probably need him to be where is don't please guys the limit like we saw it was what the top averaging player in the comp for the first six games last year averaging one fifteen yes he came back.
00:49:40
Speaker
pretty slowly, but I just attribute that to the COVID year of them not being able to train properly, coming back from long-term injuries. No one really seemed to be able to do it. You look at Dunkley, Trelore, Dylan Shield, Matt Rao, the list goes on. All of these guys that we know can play, but just all were super slow.
00:49:59
Speaker
I don't think you're going to be looking at the back half of Dunkley's season as an indicator for what he's going to do this year. And if you don't start him and he goes 1.15 for that first six games, he's going to be pretty difficult to get in, I would have thought. Just a quick question. So you've got McCray up one, you've got Josh Kelly in there as well. Is Josh Kelly your M3? Josh Kelly's M2.
00:50:26
Speaker
Oh, okay. So you've only got really one big dog and then you've got everyone else that is effectively got upside. Yeah. I mean, when you've got Grundy and Gorn, um, obviously you need half the, you have to trim your spending. It's just how it is. Yep. Yep. Stado. One final question.
00:50:47
Speaker
Yeah, so obviously we saw an interview with the Brisbane coach and talked about Raina and Bailey getting more mid-time and our two big boys from previous years actually moving out to different roles.
Team Dynamics and Player Roles
00:51:10
Speaker
Does that impact your thoughts? So I'm guessing your M3 currently is Lockheed Neil. Does that change?
00:51:19
Speaker
So yes, I've got Locky Niela M4. Is he more expensive than Simkin? I do have both of them, but they're obviously really, really close. Look, I saw the article today, and like I said, I really want to see it first. But when I do, I play the scenario in my head and I go, all right, so they were so close two years in a row and they just didn't quite get there.
00:51:41
Speaker
So part of me says that they're chips in on a flag. They're going to be playing their best players in their best positions and they're going to go at it again. But the other half says, well, OK, they got that close and they need to do something different. So if I had to just guess, I would say that not much is going to change, really. I think maybe rather than Lockie Neal having 80 percent and Jared Lyons having 75 percent, maybe they both sit down a little bit more.
00:52:05
Speaker
60 ish and Uranus and Baileys get a little bit more, but I can't see it being enough to, you know, throw them permanently forward where they're going to be not good picks. That's just in my head. I really want to see it more round one than anything because I can't see any real reason why they would throw locking the L and J lines into the centre in round one in a practice game when we know what they're going to do. Okay.
00:52:32
Speaker
They're going to do that in the season, so there's no point practicing it. They're going to throw the guys in there that they want to give minutes throughout the year just to see what they can do. Fantastic. I won't ask my own question for you, Holmesy. We're running fairly late on time here, but I will hit up your DMs daily for the remainder of the pre-season and get my team sorted by then. Before we go, though, give us another plug of your Discord and what's happening on there.
00:53:02
Speaker
Yeah, so if you just want to go to my Twitter, at homseyheroes, there's all the links on there. Basically, the pre-seize and stuff is just flying in there. We've got all sorts of channels where, you know, you've got pretty decent fantasy coaches in there giving opinions and advice. There's no news that happens that just doesn't get pinged in there within a minute of it being uploaded.
00:53:22
Speaker
like Louis said there's just content everywhere and it can be too much but at least you've seen it all and you can make your own own decision from there. We try to make it so there's a bit of relevance to it as well in terms of like we ask people to put their highest ever rank in their team name in there so it's not just whoever trying to give advice if you've got a high rank we at least know there's a bit of credibility there because obviously we want it to be a good resource not just
00:53:50
Speaker
not just some Twitter thing where everyone's just giving their opinion because everyone's an expert. We do these AMAs, so we've been getting some well-known fantasy coaches on just to provide, so like they'll go into a channel, everyone in there will ask their questions, and similar to this in podcasts, we record it and we just go live and answer questions.
Conclusion and Community Engagement
00:54:09
Speaker
So we had Warnie the first week, Selby week two, and then you lads week three.
00:54:14
Speaker
Some pretty big things still to come. I've got a few more up my sleeve throughout the pre-season and hopefully I'll have time to jump on there as well and do one myself and answer a few questions there. Looking forward to it, mate. And I don't think you'd happen to notice, but I haven't put my rank next to my name yet, mate. I'll just wait for the end of 2022 and then put the number one next there. I think there's a character limit on the names you can put in Discord.
00:54:41
Speaker
All right, and everyone don't forget as well, you can become a silver or gold member of the Kepa League to gain weekly in-season access to the Pod Pod. Members gain access to advanced CBA analysis, stately fantasy scores, drafty fantasy scores for your rookie research, and much, much more as well as our weekly podcast. So jump on there and get that done. Thanks so much for joining us, Holmsey, and we'll hopefully chat to you again soon in the season. Yeah, no, pleasure, boys. Thanks for having me. Really enjoyed it.